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Seth Stohs
10-02-2013, 05:11 PM
The Twins just announced that they have outrighted four players. Shairon Martis, Cole De Vries, Josh Roenicke and Clete Thomas.

I'm slightly surprised by the Roenicke decision. There are likely many more to come.

SgtSchmidt11
10-02-2013, 05:21 PM
I'm pleased with them, the Roenicke decision is meh to me.

howieramone
10-02-2013, 05:24 PM
They are going to unmuddy the waters, and I expect to see a lot of this. During open auditions very few played their way into the future, but a great many played themselves out of it, if they ever even had a future. I'm curious about ST. One year some time ago, they had relatively few starting pitchers in camp. I'm wondering if the pecking order is close enough where this may be the case. I believe this was one of those unfortunate years that was necessary in the rebuilding process.

Mr. Brooks
10-02-2013, 05:27 PM
I think the fact the word "surprise" even comes to mind regarding the release of a negative WAR, 31 year old relief pitcher with no upside, on a 96 loss team, speaks volumes to the way this organization is typically run.
The fact that he was let go this soon at least gives me a little bit of hope that they ARE in fact committed to doing things different than the way they have done in the past.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-02-2013, 05:32 PM
Good. Get all those scrubs out. Hernandez, Fryer, and Bernier next please.

howieramone
10-02-2013, 05:34 PM
I think the fact the word "surprise" even comes to mind regarding the release of a negative WAR, 31 year old relief pitcher with no upside, on a 96 loss team, speaks volumes to the way this organization is typically run.
The fact that he was let go this soon at least gives me a little bit of hope that they ARE in fact committed to doing things different than the way they have done in the past.

I wouldn't take too much hope. I assume they extended a courtesy to a veteran so he had the max time to latch on with another team. Believe he has a father or brother in the business also.

Kwak
10-02-2013, 06:49 PM
Only four?

Seth Stohs
10-02-2013, 06:50 PM
I was about 50/50 on whether Roenicke would be taken off the 40 man roster and 50/50 on whether or not he would be claimed. There are obviously more moves coming and many of those moves are more obvious. I'm always curious about the strategy of when certain players are DFAd as opposed to others.

VATwinsFan
10-02-2013, 06:55 PM
Not to speak ill of anyone, but the fact that Thomas got 290 ABs says it all about the 2013 edition of the Minnesota Twins.

On a different topic, during Saturday's game it was either Bert of Dan who said that there are going to be a lot of players who are going to sorely regret their failure to take advantage of the opportunity that was dropped in their lap this year -- I can think of Hicks, Parmalee, Colabello, Escobar, Walters, Worley, Thomas, Hendricks, Hernandez....

In all my 50 years or so of being a Twins fan this was about as dismal a season as I can remember.

Thrylos
10-02-2013, 07:06 PM
On a different topic, during Saturday's game it was either Bert of Dan who said that there are going to be a lot of players who are going to sorely regret their failure to take advantage of the opportunity that was dropped in their lap this year -- I can think of Hicks, Parmalee, Colabello, Escobar, Walters, Worley, Thomas, Hendricks, Hernandez....
.

Hard to throw all of those in the same bucket here. Some of these guys were out of shape and hurt (Worley) others are young and have an upside (Escobar, Hendriks, Hicks), a few are at or past their primes (Colabello, Walters, Thomas) and the jury is still out on Parmelee and Hernandez (even though I do not think much of Hernandez, but he will be better to keep in AAA than a 34 year old MiLB FA...)


Surprised by the DeVries outright, I think that he potentially had a future at least in the pen...

benchwarmerjim
10-02-2013, 07:22 PM
does 'outright' mean they are off the 40 man roster and are free agents, or do the Twins still own some sort of rights?

ScottyB
10-02-2013, 07:24 PM
So outrighted means these guys passed through waivers and have been assigned to Rochester. We haven't lost any of them, but Roenicke is arbitration eligible, so he has the option to file for free agency. I'm assuming that if nobody wanted him on waivers, there won't be much interest in signing him to anything but a minor league deal anyway. Relief pitchers like him can easily be found. If nothing else, it opens a spot for Tonkin for next year.

Chance
10-02-2013, 08:10 PM
I'm happy with the Roenicke move. I really didn't think he was that bad this season, but I would much rather give his playing time to Tonkin (or several other relievers who showed a lot in the minors) this next season. Good luck to him elsewhere, though. He seemed like a good guy (which is why I'm also surprised and hopefully with his outrighting).

ScottyB
10-02-2013, 08:17 PM
Roenicke could still stay - it's his option. I'm sure the Twins could find room for him at Rochester next season and then it's possible he could be given a ST non-roster invite.

snepp
10-02-2013, 08:33 PM
Surprised by the DeVries outright, I think that he potentially had a future at least in the pen...

In AAA.

Chance
10-02-2013, 08:38 PM
Roenicke could still stay - it's his option. I'm sure the Twins could find room for him at Rochester next season and then it's possible he could be given a ST non-roster invite.

I understand he can still return. I assumed (probably prematurely) that he would elect free agency and see if he can get a major league deal or a minor league deal with a more developed team given his age.

pierre75275
10-02-2013, 08:51 PM
I woukd expect Hernandez Fryer Benier and Mastro to be next. And wilkin ramierez when he comes of the DL. And I would not be surprised if Duensing was non tendered and then resigned or signed by somebody else.

Jeremy Nygaard
10-02-2013, 08:58 PM
All of these guys have amassed enough professional service time to elect to become minor-league free agents. Roenicke can refuse his assignment because he has 3+ years of experience.

My guess is that the Twins moved these guys first - while most teams rosters are still full - hoping they would make it through waivers and they'll cut minor-league deals with all of them.

TRex
10-02-2013, 09:13 PM
And I would not be surprised if Duensing was non tendered and then resigned

Not to pick nits, but if you non-tender Duensing, I don't think you can sign him before May.

twinsfan34
10-02-2013, 09:19 PM
Not to speak ill of anyone, but the fact that Thomas got 290 ABs says it all about the 2013 edition of the Minnesota Twins.

On a different topic, during Saturday's game it was either Bert of Dan who said that there are going to be a lot of players who are going to sorely regret their failure to take advantage of the opportunity that was dropped in their lap this year -- I can think of Hicks, Parmalee, Colabello, Escobar, Walters, Worley, Thomas, Hendricks, Hernandez....

In all my 50 years or so of being a Twins fan this was about as dismal a season as I can remember.

Agree. Most dismal in memory of 32 years...

Clete Thomas...absolutely, I was baffled he was even in the majors. I'd a rather had anyone at Rochester, Antoan Richardson et al.

stringer bell
10-02-2013, 10:31 PM
Never was a fan of Clete. He was the center fielder until Presley was acquired (with Hicks demoted to AAA), so I guess I understand why he got as many ABs as he did. De Vries will probably get a chance with someone (his season ruined by injury). Roenicke was pretty good in the middle of the season, but "leaked oil" badly from some time in August until the end of the season. I fully expect more guys to be taken off the 40-man.

LaBombo
10-02-2013, 10:43 PM
I woukd expect Hernandez Fryer Benier and Mastro to be next. And wilkin ramierez when he comes of the DL. And I would not be surprised if Duensing was non tendered and then resigned or signed by somebody else.
Who's the opening day center fielder in that scenario?

FSP
10-02-2013, 10:46 PM
Who's the opening day center fielder in that scenario?

A different waiver wire pickup?

Alex
10-02-2013, 10:46 PM
Who's the opening day center fielder in that scenario?


I think Pressley will be our opening day CF next season.

stringer bell
10-02-2013, 10:48 PM
Who's the opening day center fielder in that scenario?I'm sure it would be Presley. I think Mastro gets a chance to be a fourth OF this spring, and if he's healthy, he will get the job. When Hicks returns from exile in Rochester, Presley or Mastro is sent out.

Alex
10-02-2013, 10:52 PM
I'm sure it would be Presley. I think Mastro gets a chance to be a fourth OF this spring, and if he's healthy, he will get the job. When Hicks returns from exile in Rochester, Presley or Mastro is sent out.

Not a need to waive Mastro yet.

If Mastro can recover from injury and work enough rust off to hit big league pitching, he becomes an ideal 4th OF for the Twins as he's a RHB and can cross platoon with Pressley and Arcia. Errr....nevermind.

LaBombo
10-02-2013, 10:58 PM
I'm sure it would be Presley. I think Mastro gets a chance to be a fourth OF this spring, and if he's healthy, he will get the job. When Hicks returns from exile in Rochester, Presley or Mastro is sent out.
Foreign computer with Chrome browser = incomplete post. My guess was Elvis, and my next question was who's the backup, and my last was please, please, please, can it not be Hicks until he's ready.

None of that posted, but hey, looks like we are in agreement about Mastro at least warranting a shot at the 4th OF spot in a placeholder/insurance plan role.

jokin
10-02-2013, 11:04 PM
All of these guys have amassed enough professional service time to elect to become minor-league free agents. Roenicke can refuse his assignment because he has 3+ years of experience.

My guess is that the Twins moved these guys first - while most teams rosters are still full - hoping they would make it through waivers and they'll cut minor-league deals with all of them.

Did Shairon Martis show anything in September that shouted out for the Twins to do whatever it takes to somehow sneak him through to 2014? Just goes to show, all that sweating and gnashing of teeth over the prospect of axing, at any given moment, at least 1/3 (if not more even, Howard Sinker is of the opinion tht the Twins immediately look into the prospect of parting ways with 2 dozen guys!) of this 40-man roster is a complete waste of time.

jokin
10-02-2013, 11:10 PM
Foreign computer with Chrome browser = incomplete post. My guess was Elvis, and my next question was who's the backup, and my last was please, please, please, can it not be Hicks until he's ready.

None of that posted, but hey, looks like we are in agreement about Mastro at least warranting a shot at the 4th OF spot in a placeholder/insurance plan role.

Kudos to you rare few who can successfully distinguish Alex Presley from Elvis, and Ryan Pressly for that matter, and never miss once into descending into the multiple misspelling options- despite using Google Chrome!

ashburyjohn
10-02-2013, 11:20 PM
In AAA.

Is that the baseball version of "In bed"?

Good news will come to you from far away... in AAA.
Your eyes will be opened to a world full of beauty... in AAA.
Your present plans are going to succeed... in AAA.
You are going to have some new clothes... in AAA.

Oldgoat_MN
10-02-2013, 11:23 PM
Interesting business. Thrylos was right, it appears. Shairon Martis was brought up basically so they could pay him a MLB minimum wage for a month.

Kinda hard not to like that.

Oldgoat_MN
10-02-2013, 11:24 PM
Is that the baseball version of "In bed"?

Good news will come to you from far away... in AAA.
Your eyes will be opened to a world full of beauty... in AAA.
Your present plans are going to succeed... in AAA.
You are going to have some new clothes... in AAA.

You are going to be a star... in AAA.

jokin
10-02-2013, 11:45 PM
Interesting business. Thrylos was right, it appears. Shairon Martis was brought up basically so they could pay him a MLB minimum wage for a month.

Kinda hard not to like that.



I would have liked a lot better that actual prospects got some of those innings Martis threw, put him on the roster as a service reward, but give the bulk of the reps to the guys who actually might be part of the solution, not the problem.

Chance
10-03-2013, 12:06 AM
Is it so difficult to make roster moves without trying to be clever? This is a real question, not rhetorical. Is there a huge benefit to letting guys go in small groups throughout the offseason instead of just sitting in a room for 3 or 4 work days and say, "ok, these are the guys who have no future with this club. We may try and bring some back on minor league deals but if someone else scoops them up, there will be 20 other guys that can essentially give us the same thing (filler with no potential). We will outright/release/waiver them tomorrow. Good work everyone." Can this not happen or is it another unwritten baseball rule?

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:08 AM
It is not surprising at all that Roenicke shares this fate. It's middle relief at best for this guy and the Twins system is full of replacements. FULL. How can anyone watching the minor leagues be surprised by that? Oliveros, Watts, Achter, and Guerra are clear replacements. This is obvious, again. Good grief.

pierre75275
10-03-2013, 12:10 AM
Pressly or Hicks. Even tho I expect Mastro to be taken off the 40 man roster I would not be surprised if he would resign a minor league deal.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:11 AM
I would have liked a lot better that actual prospects got some of those innings Martis threw, put him on the roster as a service reward, but give the bulk of the reps to the guys who actually might be part of the solution, not the problem.

Yes. There is no reason that Martis got any innings, there. Aside from giving him some more money. Seriously. Trevor May was the choice there to get innings against big league batters. Full stop.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:14 AM
By the way, it is a major org. mistake to put Presley out there instead of Hicks. Hicks should be the starting CF and 7th or so right now except vs. lefties where he should bat FIRST in front of Dozier and then Mauer.

Alex Presley is like Mike Pelfrey in so many ways that I want to vomit.

Hicks needs to be there. Full stop. Presley as the fourth OF instead of Mastro is fine.

jokin
10-03-2013, 12:19 AM
It is not surprising at all that Roenicke shares this fate. It's middle relief at best for this guy and the Twins system is full of replacements. FULL. How can anyone watching the minor leagues be surprised by that? Oliveros, Watts, Achter, and Guerra are clear replacements. This is obvious, again. Good grief.

And perhaps, Ibarra too. I am still scratching my head why both Ibarra and May weren't called up in September (and possibly Acther, as well).

jokin
10-03-2013, 12:25 AM
By the way, it is a major org. mistake to put Presley out there instead of Hicks. Hicks should be the starting CF and 7th or so right now except vs. lefties where he should bat FIRST in front of Dozier and then Mauer.

Alex Presley is like Mike Pelfrey in so many ways that I want to vomit.

Hicks needs to be there. Full stop. Presley as the fourth OF instead of Mastro is fine.

Ryan has pretty much laid out the case for Presley to be the opening day starter in CF. Probably Arcia in LF and Doumit in RF. Hicks defied managment and chose to take the winter off, who knows when he gets his recall next year. Yet another set of reasons why I am fairly convinced that 2014 will be a 100-loss season.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:27 AM
And perhaps, Ibarra too. I am still scratching my head why both Ibarra and May werent' called up in September (and possibly Acther, as well).

Sorry, forgot about Ibarra. You are very right. I just forgot about him. The bullpen can ALWAYS be fine in this org. That is what my studies about prospect movement trends ALWAYS pointed out. Burton, Duensing, and Fien are easy trade pieces. There is NO reason not to trade all of them. Couple them with prospects or Willingham, Doumit, and Swarzak.


The return? One Sulbaranesque trade would be worth it, two whoa, three a damn gold mine.

Seth Stohs
10-03-2013, 12:29 AM
I would have liked a lot better that actual prospects got some of those innings Martis threw, put him on the roster as a service reward, but give the bulk of the reps to the guys who actually might be part of the solution, not the problem.

That was clear from the moment they called him up.

And, which 'prospects' did you want to bring up?? There weren't prospects that were actually ready.

Seth Stohs
10-03-2013, 12:33 AM
By the way, it is a major org. mistake to put Presley out there instead of Hicks. Hicks should be the starting CF and 7th or so right now except vs. lefties where he should bat FIRST in front of Dozier and then Mauer.

Alex Presley is like Mike Pelfrey in so many ways that I want to vomit.

Hicks needs to be there. Full stop. Presley as the fourth OF instead of Mastro is fine.

I think Hicks showed that he was not ready for the big leagues. If Thomas would not have been hurt earlier in the season, that move should have happened a month or two earlier. I like seeing young guys play, but watching them drowning is good for no one. I'd much prefer Thomas (or some replacement level guy) play in the short-term because it is better for Hicks in the long-term.

Alex Presley is solid. Not great. Probably a 4th OF, but a solid leadoff approach at the plate. He'll be around for a few years, again, likely as a backup once Hicks is ready.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:35 AM
Ryan has pretty much laid out the case for Presley to be the opening day starter in CF. Probably Arcia in LF and Doumit in RF. Hicks defied managment and chose to take the winter off, who knows when he gets his recall next year. Yet another set of reasons why I am fairly convinced that 2014 will be a 100-loss season.

Pardon the French:

Presley is a ****ing "catalyst type player." No he isn't. No. No. No. What an abomination of a move by this GM. He says "catalyst" and this manager does nothing but put him at the top of the order.

It is clear that the value in playing Hicks in CF and at 7/1 in the lineup with Dozier second against lefties (and 1st against righties somehow) outweighs ****ing around with another 4th OF thrust into the starting role. Clete Thomas was an embarrassment. I was appalled at the time. That he lasted tells you what you need to know about him.

jokin
10-03-2013, 12:40 AM
That was clear from the moment they called him up.

And, which 'prospects' did you want to bring up?? There weren't prospects that were actually ready.

May, Ibarra, Achter.

Seth Stohs
10-03-2013, 12:42 AM
Pardon the French:

Presley is a ****ing "catalyst type player." No he isn't. No. No. No. What an abomination of a move by this GM. He says "catalyst" and this manager does nothing but put him at the top of the order.

It is clear that the value in playing Hicks in CF and at 7/1 in the lineup with Dozier second against lefties (and 1st against righties somehow) outweighs ****ing around with another 4th OF thrust into the starting role. Clete Thomas was an embarrassment. I was appalled at the time. That he lasted tells you what you need to know about him.

What do you know about him? I guarantee the Twins didn't learn anything about Thomas that they didn't know. Fans should have learned nothing about Thomas that we didn't already know. He's a 5th outfielder, but I'd rather that guy struggle than watch a high-ceiling prospect way over his head. That would make no sense. Hicks is the future. Thomas is fine because he's keeping Hicks from needing to continue to struggle like that. Nothing more than that.

Also, in his last 4 years at AAA (where most of his playing time has been), Pressley's OBPs have been .373, .386, .399, .376. Looks like an idea top of the order leadoff guy to me. It hasn't transferred to the big leagues yet, and at 28, it most likely wouldn't, but his approach is certainly that of a leadoff hiter. Again, it's not like there was a more obvious leadoff hitter that wasn't hitting there because of him.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:42 AM
I think Hicks showed that he was not ready for the big leagues. If Thomas would not have been hurt earlier in the season, that move should have happened a month or two earlier. I like seeing young guys play, but watching them drowning is good for no one. I'd much prefer Thomas (or some replacement level guy) play in the short-term because it is better for Hicks in the long-term.

Alex Presley is solid. Not great. Probably a 4th OF, but a solid leadoff approach at the plate. He'll be around for a few years, again, likely as a backup once Hicks is ready.

Alex Presley is not "solid." Good god. He can only make a career out of *potentially* being a good fourth OF. His "leadoff approach" has amounted to a career .304 OBP. That is a damn embarrassment. Gardy likes him, so you do too, right?

It amazes me how TD is full of non-independence right now. This is apologetics for the status quo at every turn. Cycles and now defenses of Alex Presley as the 2014 leadoff man!

Alex Presley leading off is a tell-tale sign that the Twins have just given up again.

Seth Stohs
10-03-2013, 12:44 AM
May, Ibarra, Achter.

I was a little surprised by Ibarra not being called up. I'm curious if they bring him back again this offseason. But, May is going to work another 40 innings in the AFL, and Achter will be there too.

Seth Stohs
10-03-2013, 12:45 AM
Alex Presley is not "solid." Good god. He can only make a career out of *potentially* being a good fourth OF. His "leadoff approach" has amounted to a career .304 OBP. That is a damn embarrassment. Gardy likes him, so you do too, right?

It amazes me how TD is full of non-independence right now. This is apologetics for the status quo at every turn. Cycles and now defenses of Alex Presley as the 2014 leadoff man!

Alex Presley leading off is a tell-tale sign that the Twins have just given up again.

OK...

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:47 AM
Cycles (as in: hell, this will all come around again, no matter how inept management is), Mike Pelfrey as a viable free agent signing, and Alex Presley as a leadoff man will be the attitude that guarantees YEARS of future ineptitude and future apologies for the ineptitude.

I am continuing blogging here as I am not done with my prospect updates. Other than that, I have to step aside from paying attention to the rampant bowing down to the status quo by those in Twins Centric.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:52 AM
OK...

A career .304 leadoff man. What is "solid" about that in the leadoff position. I know that Terry Ryan (who I did not, at all, rail against until 2013) calls him a "catalyst" but aside from that lie, what is there worthwhile in .304 career OBP guy serving as a leadoff hitter?

Seth Stohs
10-03-2013, 12:57 AM
A career .304 leadoff man. What is "solid" about that in the leadoff position. I know that Terry Ryan (who I did not, at all, rail against until 2013) calls him a "catalyst" but aside from that lie, what is there worthwhile in .304 career OBP guy serving as a leadoff hitter?

I believe I showed his AAA OBP, which have been very leadoff hitter-like. I didn't mention his MLB time, but only pointing out his traits isn't a negative. And again, on this roster, it's not like the lineup construction would have made a difference in the W-L column. His .336 OBP in his time with the Twins isn't much worse than the numbers Span put up in recent years, same for Revere, and compared to other Twins hitters in September, my guess is that it was pretty solid.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 01:03 AM
I believe I showed his AAA OBP, which have been very leadoff hitter-like. I didn't mention his MLB time, but only pointing out his traits isn't a negative. And again, on this roster, it's not like the lineup construction would have made a difference in the W-L column. His .336 OBP in his time with the Twins isn't much worse than the numbers Span put up in recent years, same for Revere, and compared to other Twins hitters in September, my guess is that it was pretty solid.

4 seasons at AAA.

His 821 plate appearances amount to a .304 OBP in the major leagues. Why would any sane organization ever put a guy like this as their leadoff man? Dozier and Hicks serve as the right guys right now. And they aren't 28/29 years old. Filling in the roster with AAAA guys is NOT the right approach to rebuild and be successful. That, we know, is the Terry Ryan-Ron Gardenhire approach. It doesn't work.

glunn
10-03-2013, 01:03 AM
That is a damn embarrassment. Gardy likes him, so you do too, right?

It amazes me how TD is full of non-independence right now. This is apologetics for the status quo at every turn. Cycles and now defenses of Alex Presley as the 2014 leadoff man!

Alex Presley leading off is a tell-tale sign that the Twins have just given up again.

Please be advised that every member of TD, from the founders to the rookies has a forum to say whatever they want. In these forums we are all equal, but we are also all subject to TD policy. If you follow the policy, you can say what you want and any member can argue with any other member, so long as the argument is respectful and does not violate any of the rules that are posted in the policy thread at the top of the main page.

Frankly, I personally agree with you more than Seth regarding the issue of whether cycles explain the Twins current woes. As a moderator, I work for Seth and the other founders, but it is OK for anyone to argue with them -- just follow the rules, which we have spent a lot of time developing and which are posted in a sticky thread that is easy to find.

Your post does not violate TD policy, but your comment about "non-independence" troubled me. I just want to make it absolutely clear that it would be completely wrong to think that there is some kind of conspiracy to be apologists for the front office.

glunn
10-03-2013, 01:10 AM
I am continuing blogging here as I am not done with my prospect updates. Other than that, I have to step aside from paying attention to the rampant bowing down to the status quo by those in Twins Centric.

Shane, I have great respect for your insights and writing, as I do for Seth's. Sometimes I agree with him and sometimes with you. I would hate to see you slow down, much less leave.

The good news is that in these forums we are all equal. Just try to be a little less inflammatory -- the "rampant bowing down" comment would have been so much better if it had been phrased in a more respectful manner.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 01:15 AM
I understand, Glunn. Thank you.

jokin
10-03-2013, 01:22 AM
Shane, I have great respect for your insights and writing, as I do for Seth's. Sometimes I agree with him and sometimes with you. I would hate to see you slow down, much less leave.

The good news is that in these forums we are all equal. Just try to be a little less inflammatory -- the "rampant bowing down" comment would have been so much better if it had been phrased in a more respectful manner.

So...."apologetics" as a label for how someone feels and expresses his thoughts about the Twins is OK, but "apolgist" is not? Again, confusing to those who cherish the language and the use of it in self-expression.

Either way, losing a Big Ten college professor like Shane from regular TD contributors doesn't seem like a step in the right direction.

jokin
10-03-2013, 01:35 AM
I was a little surprised by Ibarra not being called up. I'm curious if they bring him back again this offseason. But, May is going to work another 40 innings in the AFL, and Achter will be there too.

I would have vastly preferred that May get his 40 innings with the major league club- the sooner a decision is made on his chances for when he can be counted on to being part of the Starting Rotation, the better. As far as Acther and Ibarra go, it's time to find out where they stand as near-future options- parting ways with at least one of the arb-eligible relievers is pending, the best place to determine where they are at and if they are ready to contribute is with the big league club.

glunn
10-03-2013, 01:51 AM
So...."apologetics" as a label for how someone feels and expresses his thoughts about the Twins is OK, but "apolgist" is not? Again, confusing to those who cherish the language and the use of it in self-expression.



For the record, neither one is OK. \

Ultima Ratio
10-03-2013, 02:14 AM
For the record, neither one is OK. \

If this is the case, then watch the readership and posters dwindle. If you have a problem with the tone from a particular poster, it would be better to do so individually than censor perfectly acceptable words. I think this is case of casting nets to wide, especially if only to catch one or a few fish.

stringer bell
10-03-2013, 05:12 AM
The words got in there didn't they? I like TD and I really like a good discussion without name-calling, demeaning, etc. For the record, my opinion is that Presley is a fourth OF, who'll start the season as the Twins regular CF. I fervently hope that he is replaced by mid-May. If he isn't replaced, the reason for this happening in order of likelihood: 1) No potential replacement has stepped up to demonstrate they could be a regular CF or 2) Presley becomes a bona fide major league CF and leadoff hitter at age 28.

Alex
10-03-2013, 06:27 AM
By the way, it is a major org. mistake to put Presley out there instead of Hicks. Hicks should be the starting CF and 7th or so right now except vs. lefties where he should bat FIRST in front of Dozier and then Mauer.

Alex Presley is like Mike Pelfrey in so many ways that I want to vomit.

Hicks needs to be there. Full stop. Presley as the fourth OF instead of Mastro is fine.

I'm really not clear why Hicks would be a better option. He was clearly outmatched and put in a position to have a historically awful rookie season. Putting him out there again seems like a further exercise in futility until he shows he's improved in AAA, not to mention sends a pretty terrible message to players and fans -- not that they seem to care about that lately.

I don't think Alex Presley is the answer but he's the best option right now, barring a FA signing, to keep the spot warm. Whether he should bat lead off is another question, but the Twins have a whole host of terrible hitters and not one of them fits as an ideal lead off candidate, or if they could hit there they fit better somewhere else.

Blackjack
10-03-2013, 07:13 AM
So...."apologetics" as a label for how someone feels and expresses his thoughts about the Twins is OK, but "apolgist" is not? Again, confusing to those who cherish the language and the use of it in self-expression.



This is one of the problems I see with TD, everyone thinks they're an English professor and if you screw up on your post, use the wrong term or wording, you get called on it. It discourages posting. I've had terms like 'Occams razor' thrown at me and my posts!! WTF??!!

Concentrate on the baseball content of the posts and try not to make it into an English class.

rcfarmer
10-03-2013, 07:20 AM
I like Aaron Hicks for the future but Alex Presley .304 OBP > Aaron Hicks .259 OBP.

Rosterman
10-03-2013, 07:49 AM
There is no need to go to arbitration with a player like Roeincke. You either sign him again later or not. With a pitcher like, say Jesse Crain out there, commanding maybe $3 million...why be forced to pay a pitcher a salary you don't need to play. The Twins still have to make a decision on the worth of Swarzak and Duensing in arbitration. The other three, will sign as minor league free agents if they don't grab something somewhere else. Martis was given a shot with the Twins and can see it happening again, as well hometown kid DeVries, if the Twins DO want either back. Thomas could remain in the centerfield mix with the Twins if he chooses, and it has to look inticing considering the state of the Twins outfield, to sign a minor league deal with Minnesota. Considering his overall play, I doubt that demand for his services from another team will be substantial.

old nurse
10-03-2013, 07:58 AM
And perhaps, Ibarra too. I am still scratching my head why both Ibarra and May weren't called up in September (and possibly Acther, as well).

If you expect May to be a starter for many years to come why would you start his service time early? Some but at this point the Twins have no reason not to keep him as a starter. Achter and Ibarra maybe should have been called up. I don't think it would have made a difference career wise for them. The 9 innings Martis pitched is insignificant.

raindog
10-03-2013, 08:00 AM
It is not surprising at all that Roenicke shares this fate. It's middle relief at best for this guy and the Twins system is full of replacements. FULL. How can anyone watching the minor leagues be surprised by that? Oliveros, Watts, Achter, and Guerra are clear replacements. This is obvious, again. Good grief.
I think it's surprising because the Twins weren't fooled by his decent ERA throughout the year. That's a good thing. I'm not surprised because he's a good pitcher; he's not.

old nurse
10-03-2013, 08:03 AM
say Jesse Crain out there, commanding maybe $3 million...

Crain will get much more than 3 million and will land somewhere where he has a shot to be a closer.

Alex
10-03-2013, 08:22 AM
I think it's surprising because the Twins weren't fooled by his decent ERA throughout the year. That's a good thing. I'm not surprised because he's a good pitcher; he's not.

I think Ryan recently indicated he believed that the starting staff was better than its ERA, but there aren't many statistics where they would be considered anything but horrible. I'm really not sure what they are looking at with their pitchers.

Roenicke was probably a salary issue. Not that they need to worry about that terribly, but if a player is replaceable and has little upside, there's no reason to keep them around.

ThePuck
10-03-2013, 10:12 AM
I think Ryan recently indicated he believed that the starting staff was better than its ERA, but there aren't many statistics where they would be considered anything but horrible. I'm really not sure what they are looking at with their pitchers.

Roenicke was probably a salary issue. Not that they need to worry about that terribly, but if a player is replaceable and has little upside, there's no reason to keep them around.

And you're right. ERA, BAA, Ks, IP, all horrific for our starting pitching staff. There is nothing Ryan can point to to convince anyone the rotation wasn't as bad as it was. He instead focused on the poor offense, since he didn't make an offseason claim last year that he'd seriously address that. Quite the opposite, he got rid of our #1 and #2 hitters. He never admitted that maybe part of the problem with the offense was the loss of those two and the downgrade that we had endured.

We don't have anyone really ready this year to help, we won't pay to get anyone really good, and we have no one good enough on the MLB roster to trade in order to acquire truly good pitching prospects. And since we rarely trade any of our very good prospects for proven MLB players, we're gonna be looking at the same kind of pitching we have these last two seasons.

DAM DC Twins Fans
10-03-2013, 10:25 AM
I just skimmed thru all the posts on this thread--maybe I missed a couple.

I was surprised by Clete Thomas cut--not because I want him starting in CF every day, I don't--but because I think he was a good placeholder for two months. Why not let Clete, Mastro and Elvis (Presley) battle it out in ST?? None of them are better than a 5th OF. But we need a placeholder in CF for two months...my choice was Thomas...

Oh the place isn't for Hicks--its for Buxton--who I expect will be starting CF from AS break on. Hicks will be our 4th OF (or maybe RF).

Kwak
10-03-2013, 10:48 AM
Alex Presley will be the starting CF because Ryan traded to acquire him to be the next starting CF. He's the GM, the GM who shouts from the pulpit that he is "dealmaker", the "scout of scouts"--and the final personnel authority. Please consider that the Butera to LA trade didn't just dump a useless salary, and/or provide a pitcher for the system--but the #16 prospect in the entire system! Ryan is the GM and can make that call.

Last season, Gardenhire lobbied hard (and successfully) to have Hicks as the starting CF. One point was made very clear in the contract extension of Gardenhire--it was Ryan's decision. I'm concluding any lobbying will be more subdued in the future. I don't expect Buxton to be with the Twins soon. Presley will be extended every opportunity to succeed, without looking over his shoulder, such that he can be traded for someone more useful like the previous CFers.

nicksaviking
10-03-2013, 10:55 AM
I think it's surprising because the Twins weren't fooled by his decent ERA throughout the year. That's a good thing. I'm not surprised because he's a good pitcher; he's not.

He might have been able to fool them with the ERA but you'll never be able to slip the old BB/9 by this club. Sometimes I get the feeling a walk is about the worst outcome possible for some of those in charge.

howieramone
10-03-2013, 11:09 AM
Alex Presley will be the starting CF because Ryan traded to acquire him to be the next starting CF. He's the GM, the GM who shouts from the pulpit that he is "dealmaker", the "scout of scouts"--and the final personnel authority. Please consider that the Butera to LA trade didn't just dump a useless salary, and/or provide a pitcher for the system--but the #16 prospect in the entire system! Ryan is the GM and can make that call.

Last season, Gardenhire lobbied hard (and successfully) to have Hicks as the starting CF. One point was made very clear in the contract extension of Gardenhire--it was Ryan's decision. I'm concluding any lobbying will be more subdued in the future. I don't expect Buxton to be with the Twins soon. Presley will be extended every opportunity to succeed, without looking over his shoulder, such that he can be traded for someone more useful like the previous CFers.For 30 days of Morneau, Ryan got Presley and a PTNL. I believe he spent 4 days in Indianapolis looking for starting pitching, but settled for 2 useful pieces. King Theo was recently quoted that not all trades yield a core player. The Butera trade was, IMO universally applauded. Accepting cash for Carroll was not popular on the board, but I personally don't see where that was a big deal.

golfboy1
10-03-2013, 11:16 AM
4 seasons at AAA.

His 821 plate appearances amount to a .304 OBP in the major leagues. Why would any sane organization ever put a guy like this as their leadoff man? Dozier and Hicks serve as the right guys right now. And they aren't 28/29 years old. Filling in the roster with AAAA guys is NOT the right approach to rebuild and be successful. That, we know, is the Terry Ryan-Ron Gardenhire approach. It doesn't work.


How is Hicks the "right guy right now"? He batted under .200 & looked hopelessly lost most of the time. It didn't look like he was showing any real improvement during his recent play before he was demoted. Then he managed to bat .222 @ AAA after his demotion.

Presley might not be great.. or the long term answer but I fail to see how rewarding Hicks with the job after last season makes sense.

You can't use Presley's stats against him but ignore Hicks stats. I'm all for Hicks being the Twins CFer...when he has shown enough improvement that he warrants it.

Bottom line. Presley might not be great, but SOMEONE has to play CF & bat leadoff & he seems like the best current option.

BTW..Hicks batted .047 last season leading off

ashburyjohn
10-03-2013, 11:25 AM
I was surprised by Clete Thomas cut--not because I want him starting in CF every day, I don't--but because I think he was a good placeholder for two months. Why not let Clete, Mastro and Elvis (Presley) battle it out in ST??

They still can battle it out, if the guess is correct that he and the other players removed from the 40-man won't be claimed. While it may be true that one of these three will be the opening day CF starter, in the larger picture they all profile as a 4th outfielder on a contending team and it's not a great use of 40-man space to keep three of the same thing. I reserve judgement until I see what they choose to fill these newly open slots (presumably young'uns who need protection from rule 5), but all four removals make general sense to me.

/ edit - small point: since teams don't usually announce anything during the waiver process, I guess this announcement means the four players already passed unclaimed. Is this the time of year that waivers are revocable? If so, then maybe others were waived, claimed, and pulled back.

nicksaviking
10-03-2013, 11:37 AM
The poor CF outlook is really priming the front office to be in a tough position next year. We all know what the chorus will be if (when?) the CF options at the MLB level fail. They better be prepared to hear calls for Buxton starting in spring training if they fail to remedy the situation before hand, because these demands will be coming from rubes and experts alike if Buxton shows any competency is first weeks at AA.

Of course if they were looking for an excuse deviate from their comfort zone and promote Buxton previous to the Target Field hosted All-Star game, there's probably no better way than to field inadaquate CF'ers to begin with.

stringer bell
10-03-2013, 11:52 AM
Buxton has not played above High A yet. I have seen him in person and I'm impressed, but I be very surprised if he makes his Target Field debut before September 1. Perhaps he'll be Mike Trout, but more likely it will take a bit of adjusting at the higher levels of the minors. I think Hicks will be playing CF for the Twins by May 15. He is going to need to show his potential at Rochester to overcome his struggles this year.

nicksaviking
10-03-2013, 11:57 AM
Buxton has not played above High A yet. I have seen him in person and I'm impressed, but I be very surprised if he makes his Target Field debut before September 1. Perhaps he'll be Mike Trout, but more likely it will take a bit of adjusting at the higher levels of the minors. I think Hicks will be playing CF for the Twins by May 15. He is going to need to show his potential at Rochester to overcome his struggles this year.

I don't disagree, I'm just suggesting the front office better be prepared to hear people screaming for him if they chose to not field an adaquate CF'er. I further surmised that if the front office DID want an excuse to show off Buxton before they show off Target Field at the All-Star game, they would likely field awful CF'ers to make the decision easier on themselves.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:05 PM
With regard to Mr. Hicks vs. Mr. Presley:

I am not ignoring Hicks's season numbers, but I do think that people might be ignoring his post April numbers. Basically around .700 OPS is what one could quite expect from someone skipping a level, especially in his case.

I rather like the idea, still, of Hicks and Dozier at the top of the order against lefties.

The point (quite lost . . . my fault, clearly) is about the Twins continuing to acquire AAAA players instead of either signing legitimate MLB players or playing prospects. The Thomas/Presley duo was necessary last year sans Hicks and Mastroianni. Going forward, though? Presley is not a major league leadoff hitter. It's embarrassing that this team considers him a "catalyst" and is going to give him this roster spot and this lineup spot.

TR's comments about Presley (and I will assume Gardenhire loves him) are just another example of why I have finally come around to wanting these two guys fired. There is no statistical basis for Presley love, esp. starting at the top of the lineup. Isn't that clear? Dude has spent a lot of time in AAA and that has not translated to major league success beyond 4 OF.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:08 PM
By the way, I think I should change my avatar. Having it makes me more and more surly.

Also, for the record, I am not a Big Ten college professor. I did teach at Purdue as a grad student, but I am now employed at the community college in town. Servicing the poor and whatnot. Teaching Nietzsche to poor people . . .

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:09 PM
(And I only get angry at smart people). This means Seth is smart. But we knew that.

howieramone
10-03-2013, 12:10 PM
I don't disagree, I'm just suggesting the front office better be prepared to hear people screaming for him if they chose to not field an adaquate CF'er. I further surmised that if the front office DID want an excuse to show off Buxton before they show off Target Field at the All-Star game, they would likely field awful CF'ers to make the decision easier on themselves.I don't view Presley and/or Hicks as inadequate or awful. IMO the FO has adequately addressed the short term need in CF. There are other more pressing issues. I agree with Seth, we will see Buxton sooner rather than later, and I don't believe it will be influenced by screaming people.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:24 PM
Buxton in CF, Hicks in RF or LF is definitely the future.

Maybe not appropriate for this thread, but where do you put Buxton in the lineup?

Alex
10-03-2013, 12:43 PM
With regard to Mr. Hicks vs. Mr. Presley:

I am not ignoring Hicks's season numbers, but I do think that people might be ignoring his post April numbers. Basically around .700 OPS is what one could quite expect from someone skipping a level, especially in his case.

I rather like the idea, still, of Hicks and Dozier at the top of the order against lefties.

The point (quite lost . . . my fault, clearly) is about the Twins continuing to acquire AAAA players instead of either signing legitimate MLB players or playing prospects. The Thomas/Presley duo was necessary last year sans Hicks and Mastroianni. Going forward, though? Presley is not a major league leadoff hitter. It's embarrassing that this team considers him a "catalyst" and is going to give him this roster spot and this lineup spot.

TR's comments about Presley (and I will assume Gardenhire loves him) are just another example of why I have finally come around to wanting these two guys fired. There is no statistical basis for Presley love, esp. starting at the top of the lineup. Isn't that clear? Dude has spent a lot of time in AAA and that has not translated to major league success beyond 4 OF.

I get your point here, but I think it's really only the organization that is at least sounding like Presley is more of a stopgap. Your last paragraph, I completely agree with and I just can't believe some of the quotes we are getting. At some point, they are either transparent attempts to spread false optimism or they actually have a completely out-of-whack evaluation system.

I think that until Hicks can hit RHP he has no business in the majors, at least for now. There's more value (to him and the team) in him playing everyday at his age than having him sit or be overwhelmed on the big club.

ThePuck
10-03-2013, 12:47 PM
I get your point here, but I think it's really only the organization that is at least sounding like Presley is more of a stopgap. Your last paragraph, I completely agree with and I just can't believe some of the quotes we are getting. At some point, they are either transparent attempts to spread false optimism or they actually have a completely out-of-whack evaluation system.

I think that until Hicks can hit RHP he has no business in the majors, at least for now. There's more value (to him and the team) in him playing everyday at his age than having him sit or be overwhelmed on the big club.

Presley is a below average defensive CF and RF and his OPS under .700 doesn't play anywhere especially on the corners. He's, at best, a 4th OF...and should probably stick to LF when he does sub.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:47 PM
By the way, Hicks was injured in AAA. After he came back at the very end he started hitting well. And hitting RHP.

nicksaviking
10-03-2013, 12:52 PM
Also, for the record, I am not a Big Ten college professor. I did teach at Purdue as a grad student, but I am now employed at the community college in town. Servicing the poor and whatnot. Teaching Nietzsche to poor people . . .

Are you mad?! You're surely creating anarchists and your intentions to do so in this forum are now quite clear! For shame, FOR SHAME!!

ashburyjohn
10-03-2013, 12:53 PM
He might have been able to fool them with the ERA but you'll never be able to slip the old BB/9 by this club. Sometimes I get the feeling a walk is about the worst outcome possible for some of those in charge.

Roenicke's WHIP was bad this year. Might not the explanation be that simple?

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 12:54 PM
Part of my thing is that the Twins need to figure out who is going to be there around the stars: Mauer, Buxton, Sano, and Rosario. I like the idea of rolling with Hicks for that reason. I don't like the idea of him just hanging out in AAA after this MLB time. I never like the idea of promoting up to the majors and then sending players back down. Parmelee is a good example of this. If they just would have been patient with both Parmelee and Hicks and put them in AAA to begin with in those respective seasons, it would have been much better.

Dozier goes against my point in one way, but re-affirms the point in another. Obviously he went back down, but he also was back up in 2013 at the beginning of the season and then learned something thanks to Bruno.

spycake
10-03-2013, 12:59 PM
Last season, Gardenhire lobbied hard (and successfully) to have Hicks as the starting CF. One point was made very clear in the contract extension of Gardenhire--it was Ryan's decision. I'm concluding any lobbying will be more subdued in the future.

Interesting take. I theorize that Ryan used to overrule Gardenhire a fair amount in his first tenure. I don't recall anybody of note being moved after being in Gardy's "doghouse".

But as soon as Bill Smith took over, note how rumored malcontents Bartlett and Garza were immediately packaged together in a deal, Santana was traded before his walk year so he wouldn't be a distraction, followed later by the frustrating Gomez and eventually the "too slow" JJ Hardy. EDIT TO ADD: Plus the "proven closer" Capps acquisition.

Not sure if the power balance changed permanently in TR's absence? I suspect TR is back to overruling Gardy but frankly there aren't enough useful players on this club to tell right now!

ThePuck
10-03-2013, 01:02 PM
Roenicke's WHIP was bad this year. Might not the explanation be that simple?

Seems his WHIP was as bad as it was due to all the walks. 5.2 BB per 9IP is gonna jack up a WHIP. They've made not walking people a pride thing. They've often pointed glowingly at the walk totals, even when the reason walks weren't happening is because batters were beating the snot out of the ball instead...like this year.

ashburyjohn
10-03-2013, 01:09 PM
Seems his WHIP was as bad as it was due to all the walks. 5.2 BB per 9IP is gonna jack up a WHIP. They've made not walking people a pride thing. They've often pointed glowingly at the walk totals, even when the reason walks weren't happening is because batters were beating the snot out of the ball instead...like this year.

Of course walks contribute to WHIP. What I'm getting at is, if you're going to assume or imply motives and other activities going on between the ears of FO people, alluding to pitch-to-contact or whatever, why not give credit that they saw beyond ERA (which wasn't that hot anyway) and used some more-analytical methods (that go beyond even WHIP?!?!?) to determine whom to demote?

nicksaviking
10-03-2013, 01:13 PM
Seems his WHIP was as bad as it was due to all the walks. 5.2 BB per 9IP is gonna jack up a WHIP. They've made not walking people a pride thing. They've often pointed glowingly at the walk totals, even when the reason walks weren't happening is because batters were beating the snot out of the ball instead...like this year.

Which is why I'm not a big fan of WHIP. It gives equal weight to walks and hits when hits are clearly more of a detriment. I'd rather my pitcher have an 8.5 H/9 and a 4.0 BB/9 than a 10.5 H/9 and a 2.0 BB/9. My gut tells me the Twins see the 2.0 BB/9 and like that guy best.

nicksaviking
10-03-2013, 01:17 PM
Of course walks contribute to WHIP. What I'm getting at is, if you're going to assume or imply motives and other activities going on between the ears of FO people, alluding to pitch-to-contact or whatever, why not give credit that they saw beyond ERA (which wasn't that hot anyway) and used some more-analytical methods (that go beyond even WHIP?!?!?) to determine whom to demote?

I think what Puck was implying and what I agree with, is that perhaps the biggest motivation for the Roenicke move was his high walk total. I can't speak for him, but my post certainly wasn't an indictment on the front office for not using any kind of advanced metrics to decide on this move. Maybe they did do a more thorough investigation, and if they did, I'd be thrilled, but you don't need any measure inspired by Bill James to tell that Roenicke isn't a very effective pitcher. His high walk total (along with low strikeout total) is good enough to dump him in my book.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 01:18 PM
Are you mad?! You're surely creating anarchists and your intentions to do so in this forum are now quite clear! For shame, FOR SHAME!!

Exactly. Exactly. In every way!

Alex
10-03-2013, 01:18 PM
Of course walks contribute to WHIP. What I'm getting at is, if you're going to assume or imply motives and other activities going on between the ears of FO people, alluding to pitch-to-contact or whatever, why not give credit that they saw beyond ERA (which wasn't that hot anyway) and used some more-analytical methods (that go beyond even WHIP?!?!?) to determine whom to demote?

I do hope that is the case, but there are also quotes that seem to go against the grain in terms of any measuring statistic or logical evaluation (like Ryan's quote about the starting pitching).

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 01:20 PM
Ok, the Roenicke move should give us pause. Not because Roenicke is good and worthy of keeping, but what are the reasons for the decision? It can't be just the walks, right? There are plenty of good reasons.

mike wants wins
10-03-2013, 01:24 PM
Well, it is a start. Plenty more chaff to get rid of. Not sure why they don't just keep going at this point.....

ThePuck
10-03-2013, 01:30 PM
Which is why I'm not a big fan of WHIP. It gives equal weight to walks and hits when hits are clearly more of a detriment. I'd rather my pitcher have an 8.5 H/9 and a 4.0 BB/9 than a 10.5 H/9 and a 2.0 BB/9. My gut tells me the Twins see the 2.0 BB/9 and like that guy best.

There are few stats that are perfect. For me, it cracks me up when our announcers talk about how leadoff walks 'almost always' end up scoring. First, that's not true...but if it was, why wouldn't they talk about how leadoff HITS also almost always score? How is a leadoff walk worse than a leadoff hit in terms of potential to score?

panolo
10-03-2013, 02:50 PM
TR's comments about Presley (and I will assume Gardenhire loves him) are just another example of why I have finally come around to wanting these two guys fired. There is no statistical basis for Presley love, esp. starting at the top of the lineup. Isn't that clear? Dude has spent a lot of time in AAA and that has not translated to major league success beyond 4 OF.

What else is he going to say? 85% of fans have no idea what Presley has done in AAA. All they know is that he was the reward for one of the most popular Twins players of the last 15 years. He also played decent when he got some time here.

Whether you, me, and 90% of the members here believe Presley is nothing more than a 4th or 5th OF TR is going to have to appeal to the masses. We are not the masses.

snepp
10-03-2013, 03:51 PM
Roenicke's WHIP was bad this year. Might not the explanation be that simple?

Fueled in large part to a pretty awful walk rate, lousy enough that his middling strikeout numbers could never hope to overcome it going forward.

His saving grace this season was that his miniscule BABIP dodged the regression bullet for 5 months. His .245 mark through August was 15th lowest among the ~135 relievers on the FG's leaderboard.

You can't outrun the regression hammer, eventually it will come crashing down.


(and yes, I'm apparently late to this party)

Thrylos
10-03-2013, 04:23 PM
I don't think Alex Presley is the answer but he's the best option right now, barring a FA signing, to keep the spot warm. .

Here is the issue with this statement that I suspect reflects the Twins FO philosophy:

Presley's ceiling is a fourth OF, PR (if he gets better on the bases - totally not impressed), late inning defensive replacement.

With Presley as their starting CF, the Twins are not fielding a competitive team. I suspect that he is like the 28th best starting CF in the majors. If the Twins are not fielding a competitive team, it make sense to give more reps to the young people who will potentially be the future of this organization (i.e. Hicks.) Even though, like with Presley as a CF, they might not be fielding a competitive team for a season or so with Hicks as a CF.

Same arguement can be made for Doumit and/or Willingham vs. Arcia, for example.

Going with a guy that might help them win 70 instead of 68 games, instead of having Hicks getting reps against MLB pitchers and not the AAA junkballers so he will develop, makes no sense to me.

Alex
10-03-2013, 04:58 PM
Here is the issue with this statement that I suspect reflects the Twins FO philosophy:

Presley's ceiling is a fourth OF, PR (if he gets better on the bases - totally not impressed), late inning defensive replacement.

With Presley as their starting CF, the Twins are not fielding a competitive team. I suspect that he is like the 28th best starting CF in the majors. If the Twins are not fielding a competitive team, it make sense to give more reps to the young people who will potentially be the future of this organization (i.e. Hicks.) Even though, like with Presley as a CF, they might not be fielding a competitive team for a season or so with Hicks as a CF.

Same arguement can be made for Doumit and/or Willingham vs. Arcia, for example.

Going with a guy that might help them win 70 instead of 68 games, instead of having Hicks getting reps against MLB pitchers and not the AAA junkballers so he will develop, makes no sense to me.

I don't think the same argument can be made for Arcia last season or this upcoming one at all.. I agree Arcia should have been getting ABs instead of either one of those as he was clearly ready for the majors. I hated what they did with him in terms of up and down. Presley might only be starting for half a season depending on Buxton. And, as I mentioned in an ideal world, Mastro gets back to normal and becomes an effective bat against LHP to create a decent platoon.

The question of Hicks really depends on whether getting MLB at bats for a player who isn't ready is helpful to their development. I don't think it is.

ashburyjohn
10-03-2013, 11:15 PM
With Presley as their starting CF, the Twins are not fielding a competitive team.

I'm not going to dig out the quote, but I remember Mastroianni saying something very similar, about *himself*. He was being the good soldier, when faced with the fact of Hicks getting the starting job at the beginning of the season. But, it was still a very "aware" thing to say.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 11:48 PM
Here is the issue with this statement that I suspect reflects the Twins FO philosophy:

Presley's ceiling is a fourth OF, PR (if he gets better on the bases - totally not impressed), late inning defensive replacement.

With Presley as their starting CF, the Twins are not fielding a competitive team. I suspect that he is like the 28th best starting CF in the majors. If the Twins are not fielding a competitive team, it make sense to give more reps to the young people who will potentially be the future of this organization (i.e. Hicks.) Even though, like with Presley as a CF, they might not be fielding a competitive team for a season or so with Hicks as a CF.

Same arguement can be made for Doumit and/or Willingham vs. Arcia, for example.

Going with a guy that might help them win 70 instead of 68 games, instead of having Hicks getting reps against MLB pitchers and not the AAA junkballers so he will develop, makes no sense to me.

This is exactly right.

Shane Wahl
10-03-2013, 11:50 PM
I don't think the same argument can be made for Arcia last season or this upcoming one at all.. I agree Arcia should have been getting ABs instead of either one of those as he was clearly ready for the majors. I hated what they did with him in terms of up and down. Presley might only be starting for half a season depending on Buxton. And, as I mentioned in an ideal world, Mastro gets back to normal and becomes an effective bat against LHP to create a decent platoon.

The question of Hicks really depends on whether getting MLB at bats for a player who isn't ready is helpful to their development. I don't think it is.

Hicks wasn't ready, yes. But now? I mean his post-April numbers were not terrible at all. They were what one should expect. It is now to the point where the best teaching moments are going to come for Hicks and Arcia in MLB.

USAFChief
10-04-2013, 07:45 AM
Fueled in large part to a pretty awful walk rate, lousy enough that his middling strikeout numbers could never hope to overcome it going forward.

His saving grace this season was that his miniscule BABIP dodged the regression bullet for 5 months. His .245 mark through August was 15th lowest among the ~135 relievers on the FG's leaderboard.

You can't outrun the regression hammer, eventually it will come crashing down.


(and yes, I'm apparently late to this party)
I'm confused. Is it the regression bullet we're concerned about, or the regression hammer? Or are they different things?

You stat geeks... :)

mike wants wins
10-04-2013, 07:57 AM
What else is he going to say? 85% of fans have no idea what Presley has done in AAA. All they know is that he was the reward for one of the most popular Twins players of the last 15 years. He also played decent when he got some time here.

Whether you, me, and 90% of the members here believe Presley is nothing more than a 4th or 5th OF TR is going to have to appeal to the masses. We are not the masses.

so he should lie to the masses, because they don't know better? I'm not sure what you are saying here.

Seth Stohs
10-04-2013, 09:14 AM
Maybe not appropriate for this thread, but where do you put Buxton in the lineup?

Leadoff, and then eventually #3.

spycake
10-04-2013, 09:35 AM
Leadoff, and then eventually #3.

Ah, following the Brian Dozier model, then? :)

matthew0211
10-04-2013, 09:51 AM
Ah, following the Brian Dozier model, then? :)

Hopefully it's the Kirby Puckett model.

TRex
10-04-2013, 10:04 AM
Hicks wasn't ready, yes. But now? I mean his post-April numbers were not terrible at all. They were what one should expect. It is now to the point where the best teaching moments are going to come for Hicks and Arcia in MLB.

I am surprised that so many people are distressed by Hicks' not getting a call up (not necessarily you, SW). There was so much hand wringing at the beginning of the year about Hicks' service time, but for all intents and purposes doesn't the August 1st demotion pretty much guarantee that he will not reach the Super Two mark? That means his service time will be 63 days short of the full year (or more than the 2 months we previously discussed).

Alex
10-04-2013, 10:30 AM
Hicks wasn't ready, yes. But now? I mean his post-April numbers were not terrible at all. They were what one should expect. It is now to the point where the best teaching moments are going to come for Hicks and Arcia in MLB.

I think Hicks and Arcia are in different places. Also, I've no looked at Hick's month by month splits to see how much of his overall numbers were buoyed by RH ABs. I think it's incredibly important that he is at least capable of hitting RHP before getting a long term callup. I think it's a bad idea to hand him the starting job again, but that's different than giving up on him, which I'm not doing.

DAM DC Twins Fans
10-04-2013, 10:35 AM
Here is the issue with this statement that I suspect reflects the Twins FO philosophy:

Presley's ceiling is a fourth OF, PR (if he gets better on the bases - totally not impressed), late inning defensive replacement.

With Presley as their starting CF, the Twins are not fielding a competitive team. I suspect that he is like the 28th best starting CF in the majors. If the Twins are not fielding a competitive team, it make sense to give more reps to the young people who will potentially be the future of this organization (i.e. Hicks.) Even though, like with Presley as a CF, they might not be fielding a competitive team for a season or so with Hicks as a CF.

Same arguement can be made for Doumit and/or Willingham vs. Arcia, for example.

Going with a guy that might help them win 70 instead of 68 games, instead of having Hicks getting reps against MLB pitchers and not the AAA junkballers so he will develop, makes no sense to me.

I don't often agree with Thrylos--but here I agree 100%. Presley (like Mastro and Thomas) is an AAAA player. If the Twins go with an OF of him and Willingham and Doumit, Plouffe at 3B, etc. next year and look headed to another 90 loss season, after the AS break--bring up the kids let them learn up here. That means Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Pinto etc. This is the future--don't worry about service time--allegedly the Twins have the money to sign the ones that work out to contracts that would cover their arbitration years (like the Rays did with Longoria). Having the kids at Rochester next August while the Twins are struggling again makes zero sense.

Shane Wahl
10-04-2013, 11:00 AM
I don't often agree with Thrylos--but here I agree 100%. Presley (like Mastro and Thomas) is an AAAA player. If the Twins go with an OF of him and Willingham and Doumit, Plouffe at 3B, etc. next year and look headed to another 90 loss season, after the AS break--bring up the kids let them learn up here. That means Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Pinto etc. This is the future--don't worry about service time--allegedly the Twins have the money to sign the ones that work out to contracts that would cover their arbitration years (like the Rays did with Longoria). Having the kids at Rochester next August while the Twins are struggling again makes zero sense.

It would be cool, at least for dramatic effect, to bring them all up at the same time. Haha. What a big slap in the face to the current roster at the time, but oh well. They are adults.

Shane Wahl
10-04-2013, 11:04 AM
Hopefully it's the Kirby Puckett model.

I would think Buxton batting third is the best idea too. There's just too much slugging there, and it would be nice to have that behind Mauer.

When the great move is made (say after AS break), Dozier/Hicks, Mauer, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Rosario, Pinto, Hicks/Dozier, X (however the Dozier-Rosario-Florimon situation works out) is a FUN lineup to watch. We need some fun this year if the team is still looking at 70 wins as a challenge.

Also, by that time, it could be Meyer-Gibson-May at the top of the rotation.

Alex
10-04-2013, 11:04 AM
I don't often agree with Thrylos--but here I agree 100%. Presley (like Mastro and Thomas) is an AAAA player. If the Twins go with an OF of him and Willingham and Doumit, Plouffe at 3B, etc. next year and look headed to another 90 loss season, after the AS break--bring up the kids let them learn up here. That means Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Pinto etc. This is the future--don't worry about service time--allegedly the Twins have the money to sign the ones that work out to contracts that would cover their arbitration years (like the Rays did with Longoria). Having the kids at Rochester next August while the Twins are struggling again makes zero sense.

People are taking this Presley response too far and completely out of context, extrapolating entire philosophy about who will startin CF from a basic question. The original question (by Labambo) was who would start in CF based on some other waiver suggestions (which is what this thread was about) A couple of us, myself included, responded that Presley is currently the best option on the roster, not that he is "the answer" to CF.

That response had nothing to do with whether I supported the Twins overall philosophy but is based on available options and likelihood.

I personally hope the Twins in do something about several positions, but because of both Hicks and Buxton, I don't see them signing a FA to fill there (at least that are any different from those already on the roster or played it recently), nor do I think it should be a major priority since they basically need to keep the spot warm for a few months at most hopefully. I'd prefer they go spend money and make acquisitions at other positions of higher possible need (SP, SS, a corner OF). Of course, that's a topic for another thread.

Seth Stohs
10-04-2013, 01:01 PM
According to Rhett Bollinger, Doug Bernier has been outrighted to Rochester.

nicksaviking
10-04-2013, 01:37 PM
According to Rhett Bollinger, Doug Bernier has been outrighted to Rochester.

Does he have to go? I mean they're not even playing baseball there anymore this year!

stringer bell
10-04-2013, 02:11 PM
Bernier makes five--still more easy outrights to make.

panolo
10-04-2013, 03:38 PM
so he should lie to the masses, because they don't know better? I'm not sure what you are saying here.

You can spin it as a lie if that is the way you choose to read it. He's not going to come out and say we got a 28 yr old tomato can who has mediocre track record at the Major League level. It's not the way the PR game works.

I mean what do people expect him to say. "He's roster filler. Never really hit in the major's. Has a weak arm. Terrible plate discipline with Major League breaking balls. Should help Rochester be competitive once Hicks takes the job back."

He's going to talk about positives. He's not going to come out and say Presley is a stop gap until Hicks or Buxton is ready. If they sold Powerball tickets on the basis that your chance of winning the jackpot is 1 in 1billion how many you going to buy?

chopper0080
10-04-2013, 05:23 PM
This might be a bit easier...names that SHOULD be on a decent 40 man roster and are not completely replaceable.

1-Joe Mauer
2-Kevin Correia
3-Kyle Gibson
4-BJ Hermsen
5-Trevor Mays
6-Glen Perkins
7-Michael Tonkin
8-Caleb Thielbar
9-Josmil Pinto
10-Brian Dozier
11-Eduardo Escobar
12-Danny Santana
13-Oswaldo Arcia
14-Aaron Hicks
15-Josh Willingham

am I missing anyone???

Pretty much sums up the roster that has been put together...

stringer bell
10-04-2013, 05:46 PM
BJ Hermsen? Are you from central Iowa? He's not good enough to be in Triple A. Otherwise I agree with the other 14. Here is another 10 who belong on a 40-man roster (not saying they're all good, but they deserve 40-man space): 15-Aaron Hicks 16-Samuel Deduno 17-Pedro Florimon 18-Jared Burton 19-Ryan Pressly 20-Anthony Swarzak 21-Trevor Plouffe 22-Scott Diamond 23-Brian Duensing 24-Vance Worley

snepp
10-04-2013, 08:19 PM
I'm confused. Is it the regression bullet we're concerned about, or the regression hammer? Or are they different things?

You stat geeks... :)

You're killing me here, killing me...



...with a hammer bullet.

Alex
10-04-2013, 10:27 PM
This might be a bit easier...names that SHOULD be on a decent 40 man roster and are not completely replaceable.

1-Joe Mauer
2-Kevin Correia
3-Kyle Gibson
4-BJ Hermsen
5-Trevor Mays
6-Glen Perkins
7-Michael Tonkin
8-Caleb Thielbar
9-Josmil Pinto
10-Brian Dozier
11-Eduardo Escobar
12-Danny Santana
13-Oswaldo Arcia
14-Aaron Hicks
15-Josh Willingham

am I missing anyone???

Pretty much sums up the roster that has been put together...

I'd add Hermann to the list because of his flexibility. I prefer him over Doumit at this point.

Shane Wahl
10-05-2013, 10:56 AM
I think an argument can be made that 25 or so of the guys on the 40 man truly belong there. Hopefully, Willingham and Doumit can be traded to get some AA pitchers who might be worthy (or need to be) of being on the 40-man. Said pitchers must throw over 90mph on a regular basis though.

Speaking of pitchers who CANNOT do that--BJ Hermsen wouldn't be claimed by anybody.

Alex
10-05-2013, 11:52 AM
I think an argument can be made that 25 or so of the guys on the 40 man truly belong there. Hopefully, Willingham and Doumit can be traded to get some AA pitchers who might be worthy (or need to be) of being on the 40-man. Said pitchers must throw over 90mph on a regular basis though.

Speaking of pitchers who CANNOT do that--BJ Hermsen wouldn't be claimed by anybody.

I'd be highly impressed if either one of those players bring back anything more than a reliever or AAAA type player. I predict they'll be on the major league roster next season clogging it up and one of the reasons the Twins are going to continue to struggle since they should be bench players at this point, but that would leave a single spot on the bench for a catcher (with 13 pitchers).

Shane Wahl
10-05-2013, 12:10 PM
I'd be highly impressed if either one of those players bring back anything more than a reliever or AAAA type player. I predict they'll be on the major league roster next season clogging it up and one of the reasons the Twins are going to continue to struggle since they should be bench players at this point, but that would leave a single spot on the bench for a catcher (with 13 pitchers).

Yeah, I am advocating for basically trying to find someone who has had struggles who works it out. I know they aren't getting top 10 organizational prospects for these two. The Orioles have some guys in the 11-20 range, though. I am sure that team probably wants pitching, so maybe a bad example.

I was thinking 25 year-old types in AA who you "gamble" on or erratic fireballers in low-A who you "gamble" on. Clearing the clog is enough for me to settle for DJ Baxendale or Josh Burris equivalent.

Alex
10-05-2013, 12:46 PM
Yeah, I am advocating for basically trying to find someone who has had struggles who works it out. I know they aren't getting top 10 organizational prospects for these two. The Orioles have some guys in the 11-20 range, though. I am sure that team probably wants pitching, so maybe a bad example.

I was thinking 25 year-old types in AA who you "gamble" on or erratic fireballers in low-A who you "gamble" on. Clearing the clog is enough for me to settle for DJ Baxendale or Josh Burris equivalent.

Absolutely. A incredibly high risk player is all they could hope for, but I still wonder if the Twins will overvalue them and thus not get what the expect and keep them. But, I agree, unclogging the roster is far more important.

One thing that people may not realize is that they make $10M together, and while money shouldn't be an issue, that $10M could be put to far better use instead.

Kwak
10-05-2013, 04:11 PM
Absolutely. A incredibly high risk player is all they could hope for, but I still wonder if the Twins will overvalue them and thus not get what the expect and keep them. But, I agree, unclogging the roster is far more important.

One thing that people may not realize is that they make $10M together, and while money shouldn't be an issue, that $10M could be put to far better use instead.

You must have overheard Pohlad!

diehardtwinsfan
10-05-2013, 06:44 PM
Alex Presley is not "solid." Good god. He can only make a career out of *potentially* being a good fourth OF. His "leadoff approach" has amounted to a career .304 OBP. That is a damn embarrassment. Gardy likes him, so you do too, right?

It amazes me how TD is full of non-independence right now. This is apologetics for the status quo at every turn. Cycles and now defenses of Alex Presley as the 2014 leadoff man!

Alex Presley leading off is a tell-tale sign that the Twins have just given up again.

Why in the world do people need to paint this guy in terms of extremes. He's a decent stop gap with some upside. Worst case, he's a place holder for Hicks/Buxton and a 4th OF when he arrives, and that I think at this point is pretty much guaranteed. Best case, he's a late bloomer and he comes close to mirroring his minor league success in the majors, at which point, he can hold the job until Buxton or Hicks forces it and then he can be traded for a far better return than an aging Justin Morneau. People blast the front office for not taking risks like this and then they blast them when they do. This is a cheap acquisition that could possibly turn out to be a very shrewd baseball move or may simply provide the team with a 4th OF with some pop.

Of all the consternation about the front office, I don't get this one. The team has one OF in the future in RF and Willingham for one more season in LF with both Buxton and Hicks likely knocking on the door next season. They aren't, nor should they, going after a guy like Ellsbury, and quite frankly Pressley makes a far better placeholder than Clete.

I don't know what people expected to get for Justin. It wasn't going to be much, Justin pretty much assured that when he sucked this spring. I wish him well, and I hope he gets a ring in Pittsburg, but he wasn't going to bring in much. That was a gamble, and it didn't pay off.

diehardtwinsfan
10-05-2013, 06:53 PM
TR's comments about Presley (and I will assume Gardenhire loves him) are just another example of why I have finally come around to wanting these two guys fired. There is no statistical basis for Presley love, esp. starting at the top of the lineup. Isn't that clear? Dude has spent a lot of time in AAA and that has not translated to major league success beyond 4 OF.

Really, the .876 OPS in Indianapolis last year or the .806 OPS this year there doesn't count? You are correct in that he's spent of lot of time in AAA and it hasn't yielded success. It doesn't mean that he couldn't. Didn't Theo make some comment a while back that he didn't believe there was such a thing as an AAAA guy, but someone who just takes a bit longer to develop? I get wanting Ryan and Gardy fired. I wanted Gardy gone, and as I've said numerous times, I don't think Ryan is the right guy for this job in a year or two when the wave arrives, but this really isn't the reason to be upset.

Let the kid have his shot. He's at worst another Clete and at best he could be much better. Simply having him here from day one is already one step better than what we had in CF last season. In the mean time it means CF is one less excuse the Twins have to not go out and get pitching.

stringer bell
10-06-2013, 07:39 PM
I think Presley showed in his brief audition that he's a better offensive player than Clete. Thomas was actually pretty solid in the OF, but you have to hit better than he did to merit continued major league pay. If Presley is the starter at the beginning of the year, he's probably somewhere between 25th and 30th best as a starting CF. I just don't expect him to be the starting CF throughout the summer.

jokin
10-06-2013, 09:04 PM
By the way, I think I should change my avatar. Having it makes me more and more surly.

Also, for the record, I am not a Big Ten college professor. I did teach at Purdue as a grad student, but I am now employed at the community college in town. Servicing the poor and whatnot. Teaching Nietzsche to poor people . . .

Once part of a Big Ten school, always part of a Big Ten School. Shouldn't feel any qualms about what you've accomplished, surliness, however comes with the territory- "Twins Territory", that is. 2 Nietzche quotes that are favorites of mine, and additionally are apropos to this thread....Thus Spoke Zarathustra:

“Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man.”

"Everything the State says is a lie, and everything it has it has stolen."

jokin
10-06-2013, 09:20 PM
I think Presley showed in his brief audition that he's a better offensive player than Clete. Thomas was actually pretty solid in the OF, but you have to hit better than he did to merit continued major league pay. If Presley is the starter at the beginning of the year, he's probably somewhere between 25th and 30th best as a starting CF. I just don't expect him to be the starting CF throughout the summer.

Agreed. I just hope that the FO doesn't expect him to be the CF throughout the summer- because if so, my fears of a 100-loss season become more confirmed. Presley is a good 4th OF on a bottom 10 team- he is what he is- and I think we can all agree, being a better offensive player than Clete Thomas is the lowest of low bar thresholds.

jokin
10-06-2013, 09:23 PM
Really, the .876 OPS in Indianapolis last year or the .806 OPS this year there doesn't count? You are correct in that he's spent of lot of time in AAA and it hasn't yielded success. It doesn't mean that he couldn't. Didn't Theo make some comment a while back that he didn't believe there was such a thing as an AAAA guy, but someone who just takes a bit longer to develop? I get wanting Ryan and Gardy fired. I wanted Gardy gone, and as I've said numerous times, I don't think Ryan is the right guy for this job in a year or two when the wave arrives, but this really isn't the reason to be upset.

Let the kid have his shot. He's at worst another Clete and at best he could be much better. Simply having him here from day one is already one step better than what we had in CF last season. In the mean time it means CF is one less excuse the Twins have to not go out and get pitching.

Speaking of "hope prolonging the torment".....a guy turning 29 in 2014 is not a kid.

jokin
10-06-2013, 09:38 PM
Bernier makes five--still more easy outrights to make.

They're still only less than 1/3 of the way to where they need to be with the outrights. In a rare moment of eloquence, Bert nailed it when he said what a huge missed opportunity it was for the legion of AAA guys who didn't take better advantage of the Twins' situation and demonstrate that they wanted a long-term MLB gig. Find another group of guys as filler who might be a little hungrier, mixed in with some FAs who demonstrate some leadership qualities and standards of accountability, and then at least we'll have made an attempt at an attitude adjustment to the current country club culture pervading the Twins clubhouse.....something has to be done now to shake things up, drop the tired cliches.....and begin and strike the chords of a new clubhouse meme....before the inevitable arrival of the prospects.

Mr. Brooks
10-07-2013, 07:39 AM
They're still only less than 1/3 of the way to where they need to be with the outrights. In a rare moment of eloquence, Bert nailed it when he said what a huge missed opportunity it was for the legion of AAA guys who didn't take better advantage of the Twins' situation and demonstrate that they wanted a long-term MLB gig. Find another group of guys as filler who might be a little hungrier, mixed in with some FAs who demonstrate some leadership qualities and standards of accountability, and then at least we'll have made an attempt at an attitude adjustment to the current country club culture pervading the Twins clubhouse.....something has to be done now to shake things up, drop the tired cliches.....and begin and strike the chords of a new clubhouse meme....before the inevitable arrival of the prospects.

They didn't "take advantage" because they don't have the talent.
I'm not sure where this mentality comes from (actually, yes I am, Gardy and TR) that inferior players just need to "try harder", "battle their tails off", and/or "get after it", and they will suddenly play better than they are capable of.

Simply throwing more "filler" at the problem will result in the exact same results.