Brandon

10-02-2013, 12:20 AM

Terry Ryan has a formula for winning baseball on a budget and I am going to do my best to explain most of the concepts so we can have a clear picture of how the Twins won and being reconstructed to win again. Rule number 1. Winning is a team concept. The Twins have always been a team that is better than the sum of all parts. There is a science to this and I am about to show you.

Pitching Rule #2: You don't need an ace to win, you need 5 solid starters. What did I just say. We don't need an ace, but we had Santana all those years... One of the most successful seasons in franchise history was the 2010 Twins team. If you go back and look at the rotation, we had Pavano 220 innings 3.75 ERA, Liriano (almost an ace) with 191.2 innings and 3.62 ERA, Baker 170.1/ 4.49, Blackburn 161 / 5.42 and Slowey 155 / 4.45. Pelfry, Corriea, Dedunno, and 2012 Diamond fit that mold. In 2010 the team used primarily 6 starters as Deunsing did get 13 starts and had 130 innings / 2.62 for season including bullpen time. Now I am not saying we couldn't use an ace if there was an affordable one out there. Corriea costs just 4.5 million this year Pelfry will not be expensive to resign either should we go that route. Here is the True formula for Pitching Rule #3: For winning plus cost control follow formula below.

6 innings from starters with 4.00 ERA = 2.67 earned runs per game + 3 innings of 3.30 ERA from bullpen = 1.1 earned runs per game = 3.77 Team ERA. How good would our team be if we had a 3.77 team era? The bullpen did their part this year on this equation. And we'll get to them in a few. The media and stat heads focus on K's and BB's and that's part of it but ultimately the question is can we have a pitcher with a 4.00 era that pitches between 180 and 200 innings. That type of pitcher keeps us in the ball games so the other aspects of winning can take over and those pitchers don't break the bank. Radke made 9 million per season, Pavano 8 million for 2 seasons, Santana was the ace that got paid 42 over 4 if I remember correctly, but outside there wasn't many expensive contracts....(there was the mistake of Mays and Blackburns extentions).

Now we get to the bullpen where it helps to currently be 9 deep and relatively inexpensive for at least 2 more seasons, (Perkins, Burton, Fien, Deunsing, Swarzak, Pressly, Reonicke, Theilbar, and Tonklin) The Twins have several generations of relievers who were inexpensive and let go when they became expensive. Look at all of the savings by having the ability to find inexpensive arms Rule #4 The bullpen is a great way to gain wins at a minimal cost. Here is a list of pitchers let go after they became too expensive.

1. Hawkins from 1995-2003 cost us 9 million then cost the Cubs 7.5 for the next 2 seasons.

2. Guardado 12 seasons for 9.5 million vs 16 million for 3 in Seattle

3. Guerrier 7 seasons for 6,650,000 vs LA 3 year 9 million

4. Crain 7 seasons for 5,900,000 vs Chi 3 year 13 million

5. Rincon 7 seasons around 6 million but he was done after that

6. Ron Mahay made 8 million in 2 seasons before coming here on a contract for less than 1 million.

7. Nathan made from 2004-2008 17,500,000 before signing the one big deal 4 year 47 million

Capps is under Bill Smith so I am not counting him for this exercise.

so we received 51 seasons for a total of 93 million with almost 65 going to Nathan vs 15 seasons for 67 million (14 for Nathan at Texas, 8 for Mahay before coming to Twins, Plus the contract Guardado, Hawkins, Crain, Guerrier signed after leaving the Twins)

Rule#5 Defense wins games: The Twins have built there teams with an emphasis on playing solid defense or playing the "Twins way" in 2010 they started to get away from that but I think they are headed back in the right direction here. the early 2000 teams had Hunter, Koskie, and Mientkiewicz anchoring the defense while Jones was really good in LF and Guzman and Rivas were solid MI. the Twins also had Cuddyers Cannon in RF, Span took over CF, then Revere, Bartlett, Hardy and Hudson were also solid MI and of course Punto was good enough to win a gold glove if he stayed at one position long enough. Today we are returning back to those roots as we have Mauer (hopefully) at C, Dozier and Florimon in MI, Hicks and soon Buxton in the OF. If Sano can become a plus defender at 3B watchout.

Rule#6 Smart baserunning is the hidden secret to the Twins scoring so much without hitting the expensive longball. The Twins were never the team to lead the league in stolen bases but they did execute more bunts, bunt singles to get on base, run from 1B to 3B on a single Sometimes the Twins over executed this one. how many times did we write about Ulger blowing a call? I think Hageman wrote an article about going 1b to 3b once and Twinsgeek wrote about the statistical analysis of the likeliness someone scores when on each base with 0,1,or 2 outs. wish I had the links for you on this one.

the offensive rule is kindof hard to describe. there is basically 2 parts to it. Rule #7 The lineup is better off with 20 HR /75-85RBI or .270/.330/.370 hitters 1-8 than 1 35HR hitter and several holes in the lineup. The Twins didn't really go for the HR hitters too much. They liked the guy who would hit 20 HR and 75-85 RBI. Those hitters are more than half the cost at 3/4 the production. The Twins had several of these hitters: Shannon Stewart, Jones, Hunter, Koskie, Cuddyer, Kubel, Crede, Mientkiewicz (minus the power) Hardy, Morneau (though he was also one of their allstars with Mauer) Of those only Hunter became really expensive and that was more star power and defense in CF than just his hitting again Morneau's contract was from when he was MVP caliber. The other type of hitter listed is effective too. the "piranhas" scored runs because they could get on base and run them aggressively. So where that leaves us is with a lineup with some development still going on Arcia, Rosario, Dozier, Hicks, and more as the next wave of the 20 HR 75-85 rbi guys (Arcia has a chance to be more) Buxton is the superstar Piranha with power. (I can't wait to see him score from first on a single). Sano is the future MVP slugger. Florimon and maybe Hicks, Mastroianni form the piranha club.

The club appears to be just a few development years for a few players and a few starting pitchers away from being the same old winning Twins we all know and love. be patient. we've seen the blueprint before and it is in progress again. with this model it takes all parts contributing to Win. but this formula does work as we had 6 division titles in 9 seasons and with the stadium we should be able to keep some of the players a little longer this go round so the minor league system will have more time to develop the following round of Twins as this is an on gong cycle.

Pitching Rule #2: You don't need an ace to win, you need 5 solid starters. What did I just say. We don't need an ace, but we had Santana all those years... One of the most successful seasons in franchise history was the 2010 Twins team. If you go back and look at the rotation, we had Pavano 220 innings 3.75 ERA, Liriano (almost an ace) with 191.2 innings and 3.62 ERA, Baker 170.1/ 4.49, Blackburn 161 / 5.42 and Slowey 155 / 4.45. Pelfry, Corriea, Dedunno, and 2012 Diamond fit that mold. In 2010 the team used primarily 6 starters as Deunsing did get 13 starts and had 130 innings / 2.62 for season including bullpen time. Now I am not saying we couldn't use an ace if there was an affordable one out there. Corriea costs just 4.5 million this year Pelfry will not be expensive to resign either should we go that route. Here is the True formula for Pitching Rule #3: For winning plus cost control follow formula below.

6 innings from starters with 4.00 ERA = 2.67 earned runs per game + 3 innings of 3.30 ERA from bullpen = 1.1 earned runs per game = 3.77 Team ERA. How good would our team be if we had a 3.77 team era? The bullpen did their part this year on this equation. And we'll get to them in a few. The media and stat heads focus on K's and BB's and that's part of it but ultimately the question is can we have a pitcher with a 4.00 era that pitches between 180 and 200 innings. That type of pitcher keeps us in the ball games so the other aspects of winning can take over and those pitchers don't break the bank. Radke made 9 million per season, Pavano 8 million for 2 seasons, Santana was the ace that got paid 42 over 4 if I remember correctly, but outside there wasn't many expensive contracts....(there was the mistake of Mays and Blackburns extentions).

Now we get to the bullpen where it helps to currently be 9 deep and relatively inexpensive for at least 2 more seasons, (Perkins, Burton, Fien, Deunsing, Swarzak, Pressly, Reonicke, Theilbar, and Tonklin) The Twins have several generations of relievers who were inexpensive and let go when they became expensive. Look at all of the savings by having the ability to find inexpensive arms Rule #4 The bullpen is a great way to gain wins at a minimal cost. Here is a list of pitchers let go after they became too expensive.

1. Hawkins from 1995-2003 cost us 9 million then cost the Cubs 7.5 for the next 2 seasons.

2. Guardado 12 seasons for 9.5 million vs 16 million for 3 in Seattle

3. Guerrier 7 seasons for 6,650,000 vs LA 3 year 9 million

4. Crain 7 seasons for 5,900,000 vs Chi 3 year 13 million

5. Rincon 7 seasons around 6 million but he was done after that

6. Ron Mahay made 8 million in 2 seasons before coming here on a contract for less than 1 million.

7. Nathan made from 2004-2008 17,500,000 before signing the one big deal 4 year 47 million

Capps is under Bill Smith so I am not counting him for this exercise.

so we received 51 seasons for a total of 93 million with almost 65 going to Nathan vs 15 seasons for 67 million (14 for Nathan at Texas, 8 for Mahay before coming to Twins, Plus the contract Guardado, Hawkins, Crain, Guerrier signed after leaving the Twins)

Rule#5 Defense wins games: The Twins have built there teams with an emphasis on playing solid defense or playing the "Twins way" in 2010 they started to get away from that but I think they are headed back in the right direction here. the early 2000 teams had Hunter, Koskie, and Mientkiewicz anchoring the defense while Jones was really good in LF and Guzman and Rivas were solid MI. the Twins also had Cuddyers Cannon in RF, Span took over CF, then Revere, Bartlett, Hardy and Hudson were also solid MI and of course Punto was good enough to win a gold glove if he stayed at one position long enough. Today we are returning back to those roots as we have Mauer (hopefully) at C, Dozier and Florimon in MI, Hicks and soon Buxton in the OF. If Sano can become a plus defender at 3B watchout.

Rule#6 Smart baserunning is the hidden secret to the Twins scoring so much without hitting the expensive longball. The Twins were never the team to lead the league in stolen bases but they did execute more bunts, bunt singles to get on base, run from 1B to 3B on a single Sometimes the Twins over executed this one. how many times did we write about Ulger blowing a call? I think Hageman wrote an article about going 1b to 3b once and Twinsgeek wrote about the statistical analysis of the likeliness someone scores when on each base with 0,1,or 2 outs. wish I had the links for you on this one.

the offensive rule is kindof hard to describe. there is basically 2 parts to it. Rule #7 The lineup is better off with 20 HR /75-85RBI or .270/.330/.370 hitters 1-8 than 1 35HR hitter and several holes in the lineup. The Twins didn't really go for the HR hitters too much. They liked the guy who would hit 20 HR and 75-85 RBI. Those hitters are more than half the cost at 3/4 the production. The Twins had several of these hitters: Shannon Stewart, Jones, Hunter, Koskie, Cuddyer, Kubel, Crede, Mientkiewicz (minus the power) Hardy, Morneau (though he was also one of their allstars with Mauer) Of those only Hunter became really expensive and that was more star power and defense in CF than just his hitting again Morneau's contract was from when he was MVP caliber. The other type of hitter listed is effective too. the "piranhas" scored runs because they could get on base and run them aggressively. So where that leaves us is with a lineup with some development still going on Arcia, Rosario, Dozier, Hicks, and more as the next wave of the 20 HR 75-85 rbi guys (Arcia has a chance to be more) Buxton is the superstar Piranha with power. (I can't wait to see him score from first on a single). Sano is the future MVP slugger. Florimon and maybe Hicks, Mastroianni form the piranha club.

The club appears to be just a few development years for a few players and a few starting pitchers away from being the same old winning Twins we all know and love. be patient. we've seen the blueprint before and it is in progress again. with this model it takes all parts contributing to Win. but this formula does work as we had 6 division titles in 9 seasons and with the stadium we should be able to keep some of the players a little longer this go round so the minor league system will have more time to develop the following round of Twins as this is an on gong cycle.