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raindog
09-28-2013, 09:10 AM
Listening to interview on 1500ESPN now. To paraphrase this is what he just said:
"I've seen your ERA stat, but I think the pitching has been better than the stats have indicated."

:rolleyes:

raindog
09-28-2013, 09:13 AM
Phil Mackey asked about Terry Ryan's status as GM. "I'm pretty locked in here."

Also asked about TR about Gardy, and TR defended him, talked about how well they get along. Not sure if that means anything. Said they'll announce his status soon after the season.

Winston Smith
09-28-2013, 09:14 AM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wc_NCUpAvMY/UcjPh2XSF8I/AAAAAAAAYuY/4dT1g9rTrCU/s400/delusiona.gif (http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=oJX0AeFU6F9cnM&tbnid=A8yk0NOQms7vQM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Floonpond.blogspot.com%2F2013%2F06 %2Fa-delusional-frolic-with-delusional.html&ei=KuRGUrKoNZTC9gTjj4G4BA&bvm=bv.53217764,d.eWU&psig=AFQjCNFf_7N2sH10151J21Tr3ykoOnE-bQ&ust=1380463928491222)

mike wants wins
09-28-2013, 09:23 AM
The pitching has been exactly what the stats say, that's how statistics work. They accurately reflect the outcomes achieved......

raindog
09-28-2013, 09:24 AM
TR (paraphrasing again):
"Pelfrey has said publicly that he wants to be back, and I don't see why we wouldn't bring him back." Definitely sounds like he will be. :mad:

howieramone
09-28-2013, 09:43 AM
Listening to interview on 1500ESPN now. To paraphrase this is what he just said:
"I've seen your ERA stat, but I think the pitching has been better than the stats have indicated."

:rolleyes:I hope this isn't a paraphrase like the one where Ryan said he wasn't going to sign a free agent ever again.:)

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-28-2013, 09:51 AM
I don't understand why people wouldn't want pelfrey back? After a horrendous start (after coming back very very quickly from TJS) he actually pitched rather solidly

LastOnePicked
09-28-2013, 10:04 AM
Also asked about TR about Gardy, and TR defended him, talked about how well they get along. Not sure if that means anything.

This will be a test of my ability to read Ryan's signals. I'm not an insider by any means, but I say the evidence suggests that this "wait and see" stuff is just cover, and that Ryan has already committed to bringing Gardy back for at least two years. I expect that this will be announced on Monday or Tuesday. And I'll save more of my commentary for then.

mike wants wins
09-28-2013, 10:05 AM
Because he was not good before the injury, and he has been bad this year.

Winston Smith
09-28-2013, 10:26 AM
It seems like TR is saying there is no need for change. Bring back Gardy, bring back Pelf, switch Duening to the rotation and we're good to go again.
I'm not sure how you sell that to the ticket buyers.

Boom Boom
09-28-2013, 10:38 AM
I don't understand why people wouldn't want pelfrey back? After a horrendous start (after coming back very very quickly from TJS) he actually pitched rather solidly
Because the Twins should be aiming higher than Pelfrey.

howieramone
09-28-2013, 10:39 AM
It seems like TR is saying there is no need for change. Bring back Gardy, bring back Pelf, switch Duening to the rotation and we're good to go again.
I'm not sure how you sell that to the ticket buyers.I just read an article where the Twins are 10th in season tickets sold and 17th in total tickets sold. With Sano and Buxton on the way, I can't imagine it's a major concern.

Halsey Hall
09-28-2013, 10:56 AM
Because the Twins should be aiming higher than Pelfrey.

But, Pelfrey is better than Hernandez, De Vries, Gibson, and probably Diamond. He's back end of the rotation, but we need at least 2 really good starters. TR has to go get them somewhere.

USAFChief
09-28-2013, 10:56 AM
2010 MLB Attendance - Major League Baseball - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2010)

According to ESPN, Twins attendance over the last 4 yrs:

2010 per game 39798

2011 39112

2012 34275

2013 30585

Roughly 25% drop in a new stadium over just the first four years, and trending down. I'm going to guess that's a concern.

raindog
09-28-2013, 11:05 AM
I don't understand why people wouldn't want pelfrey back? After a horrendous start (after coming back very very quickly from TJS) he actually pitched rather solidly
The guy is mediocre, period. Before TJ, he was mediocre. Now that he's recovered, he's mediocre. Why spend more than 6+ mil on a guy that has NO upside?

howieramone
09-28-2013, 11:20 AM
2010 MLB Attendance - Major League Baseball - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2010)

According to ESPN, Twins attendance over the last 4 yrs:

2010 per game 39798

2011 39112

2012 34275

2013 30585

Roughly 25% drop in a new stadium over just the first four years, and trending down. I'm going to guess that's a concern.

Chief, in 2010 we were contenders and Target Field was shiny and new. Attendance has dropped in MLB. The loveable losers had their worst attendance in 15 years. Our new players will put butts in the seats shortly, way before there can possibly be any sort of short term impact, much less long term.

Shane Wahl
09-28-2013, 11:22 AM
Each day it just gets worse and worse. And to top it all off, SOMEHOW, there is still talk about bringing back Mike Pelfrey. Good god.

cmathewson
09-28-2013, 11:24 AM
I don't have a problem bringing Pelfrey back as long as he's one of three free agents they bring in and the other two are Ervin Santana and Matt Garza.

Kwak
09-28-2013, 11:31 AM
Too many posts that need reply individually, so...
1) FO not presenting a plan to ticket buyers but rather to ticket sellers.
2) "...ticket sales a major concern..."--you are right it isn't a concern. The high-margin tickets are those between the bases and they always get sold. The rest are simply "sprinkles" on the whipped cream topping.
3) Resigning Pelfrey?--He pitches "TTW", doesn't "dis" management, and will work within the payroll "slot".

orangevening
09-28-2013, 11:33 AM
I don't have a problem bringing Pelfrey back as long as he's one of three free agents they bring in and the other two are Ervin Santana and Matt Garza.

So....that's a big "No" then?

Thrylos
09-28-2013, 11:33 AM
The pitching has been exactly what the stats say, that's how statistics work. They accurately reflect the outcomes achieved......

But they don't reflect on how well the ball was coming off the pitchers' hands or whether or not they can spin it out there, which are two of the most important criteria of success for the people who are ru(i)ning the Twins...

Shane Wahl
09-28-2013, 11:34 AM
I don't have a problem bringing Pelfrey back as long as he's one of three free agents they bring in and the other two are Ervin Santana and Matt Garza.

Garza just isn't going to happen. Not with this manager and pitching coach. Obviously I would take Garza over this manager and pitching coach, but Terry Ryan wouldn't (and yes I would take Garza over all three).

I would still have a problem with Pelfrey. The odds of him being even a replacement level pitcher are not too great. Maybe he over performs for a 1.0 WAR or something. Still not worth the money when the Twins can still try to find younger pitchers with upside for the league minimum and get the same performance.

stringer bell
09-28-2013, 11:50 AM
The AM 1500 guys are interpreting Ryan's words as a signal they will go another way--Paul Molitor. He has seen and worked with the elite prospects in the minors and the team is going to be terrible next year, so they think Gardy is gone and Molitor will be the Twins' next manager.

Shane Wahl
09-28-2013, 11:57 AM
Ok, I am not in Minnesota and haven't been for 10 years. Where does this Molitor talk keep coming from???

howieramone
09-28-2013, 12:00 PM
Garza just isn't going to happen. Not with this manager and pitching coach. Obviously I would take Garza over this manager and pitching coach, but Terry Ryan wouldn't (and yes I would take Garza over all three).

I would still have a problem with Pelfrey. The odds of him being even a replacement level pitcher are not too great. Maybe he over performs for a 1.0 WAR or something. Still not worth the money when the Twins can still try to find younger pitchers with upside for the league minimum and get the same performance. I don't know why anyone is concerned about money, right now the Twins have almost unlimited gold. I don't care if Pelfrey comes back or not, but having 3 heathly pitchers like Correia, Gibson, and Pelfrey, who can take the ball every 5 days is far from the worst way to start a rotation.

An OP posted an article about the definitions of 1's, 2's, 3's etc. One of the examples used by the author for a 3 was Pelfrey.

D. Hocking
09-28-2013, 12:05 PM
I don't know why, but I was surprised to hear Molitor is actually older than Gardy. I did not get that it is likely that Gardy is gone from that interview. It did make me think it is possible, but I still think there is over a 50% chance he will be back. This is probably better suited for the other thread, but I thought that was the strongest that Ryan was about hinting it might be best to move Mauer.

Shane Wahl
09-28-2013, 12:05 PM
But you KNOW that they don't look at their money as "unlimited" so there is no point to be made there.

On no planet is Mike Pelfrey a 3.

benchwarmerjim
09-28-2013, 12:20 PM
I don't understand why people wouldn't want pelfrey back? After a horrendous start (after coming back very very quickly from TJS) he actually pitched rather solidly

Im not a Pelfrey fan because anytime there is a runner on base, the pace of the game slows way down. And Pelfrey allows a lot of base runners

Oldgoat_MN
09-28-2013, 01:04 PM
Garza just isn't going to happen. ...

I would still have a problem with Pelfrey. The odds of him being even a replacement level pitcher are not too great. Maybe he over performs for a 1.0 WAR or something. Still not worth the money when the Twins can still try to find younger pitchers with upside for the league minimum and get the same performance.

Shane - agree on Garza. Cannot imagine he would ever go to a team where Anderson was the pitching coach.

Regarding Pelfrey - where are these 'young pitchers with upside'? De Vries? Hernandez? I'd go on, but you get the idea.

I agree with Howieramone, Boom Boom and Halsey Hall that Correia, Pelfrey & Gibson give us a start to our rotation. Maybe not the prettiest start, but 3 guys who can give us a chance to win some games. On this team that is a big deal.

Would I rather have 5 pitchers who average 9 SO/9? Of course.
I hope the Twins seriously go after Tanaka. I'll be really impressed if they get him because the FA pitchers out there are not terribly awesome and I think a lot of teams will target Tanaka.

Pelfrey had a great July and August just coming back from TJ surgery. I would expect his arm was pretty tired by September. I don't think he's a bad bet.

* edit: did not mean to put words in the mouths of Boom Boom and Halsey Hall - they spoke solely of Pelfrey.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-28-2013, 01:10 PM
The twins should have Gibson, pelfrey and Correia as there 3/4/5 and go out and bring in two of josh Johnson, Ervin Santana, tim lincecum, etc etc to be the 1 and 2's

raindog
09-28-2013, 01:12 PM
Even if he Pelfrey does have a decent season next year, it won't make up for having to watch his slow pace and disgusting hand licking.

cmathewson
09-28-2013, 01:14 PM
But you KNOW that they don't look at their money as "unlimited" so there is no point to be made there.

On no planet is Mike Pelfrey a 3.

+1

Pelfrey is a 4 on a good day, and he only has good days every other game. Gibson is a 5. Corriea is a 4/5. We need a 1 and a 2 if we want to get back to being competitive.

I would not bring Pelfrey back for more than one year. And I would worry about the typical dead arm guys get in the second year back from TJ when they pitch a lot of innings the first year back. So we better not count on him for much.

cmathewson
09-28-2013, 01:16 PM
Shane - agree on Garza. Cannot imagine he would ever go to a team where Anderson was the pitching coach.

I don't know what they will do with Gardy, but I would be surprised if Anderson is still with the team after this year. Three years with under performing staffs is about the limit for pitching coaches.

diehardtwinsfan
09-28-2013, 01:21 PM
There's a lot worse options in the FA market than Pelfrey, and while he's not my first choice, a 1 year deal isn't something I'd cry about. I think he's going to have a bounce back season similar to Pavano the year after he was traded to the Twins. Hopefully, they capitalize and flip him at the deadline for a prospect.

Thrylos
09-28-2013, 01:31 PM
Ok, I am not in Minnesota and haven't been for 10 years. Where does this Molitor talk keep coming from???

Name recognition and wishful thinking

Thrylos
09-28-2013, 01:35 PM
The twins should have Gibson, pelfrey and Correia as there 3/4/5 and go out and bring in two of josh Johnson, Ervin Santana, tim lincecum, etc etc to be the 1 and 2's

I'd love it if the Twins do this, with the only caveat that I'd rather see one of Correia (trade him) or Pelfrey and Meyer as their number 3. And between Correia and Pelfrey I prefer Pelfrey because of his velocity, K/9, age, potential upside after TJ & many mentions of clubhouse leadership presence. But having them both in the expence of Meyer, no way.

jokin
09-28-2013, 01:43 PM
I just read an article where the Twins are 10th in season tickets sold and 17th in total tickets sold. With Sano and Buxton on the way, I can't imagine it's a major concern.

I just read an article that quoted Rob Antony saying that season ticket sales dropped 20% in 2013 year over year from 2012, after a similar drop in 2012 versus 2011. I tend to think that thiis trend is a major concern and part of the reason why the payroll has and will continue to shrink.

17th in total tickets sold, with all other trends clearly headed downwards? I can't imagine how it wouldn't be a major concern. Sano and Buxton aren't going to save this franchise in the long run without major, sweeping changes in philosophy and management.

jokin
09-28-2013, 01:47 PM
I don't know what they will do with Gardy, but I would be surprised if Anderson is still with the team after this year. Three years with under performing staffs is about the limit for pitching coaches.

Yes, tis true, but.....3 years of 90+ losses is about the limit for any non-expansion team manager except if you are in charge of the MN Twins, so Andy being automatically considered a goner is a problematic proposition at best, Gardy and Andy seem joined at the hip.

jokin
09-28-2013, 01:59 PM
I don't know why anyone is concerned about money, right now the Twins have almost unlimited gold. I don't care if Pelfrey comes back or not, but having 3 heathly pitchers like Correia, Gibson, and Pelfrey, who can take the ball every 5 days is far from the worst way to start a rotation.

An OP posted an article about the definitions of 1's, 2's, 3's etc. One of the examples used by the author for a 3 was Pelfrey.

Seriously, your bolded comments above need a /sarc tag qualifier, if you wish to continue to persist in your train of thought. Check the respective upper atmospheric ERAs of Pelf and Gibson and then check Correia's career stats and his wild fluctuations year over year from bad to good and back to bad again. This trio should not be any team's solid core, even if 100% healthy. And as much as I personally like Pelfrey who seems like a stand-up guy, on what planet would he ever be considered a #3? Unfortunatley, like you, TR probably considers them as such, and will "build around them" with Duensing, DeVries, Deduno, Swarzak, Albers, Hernandez, yadda, yadda, yuck.

drivlikejehu
09-28-2013, 02:01 PM
Whatever fans think, the simple fact - stated in countless ways, countless times- is that the Twins are fine with the status quo. They think their way is the 'right' way and have all kinds of excuses and justifications for why they have fallen so badly.

I don't think the clock will even start ticking on the current management until the prospect wave arrives and the losses continue unabated. What's truly devastating is that the greatest commodity of a talented young player is those seasons in which he is ultra cheap. But the Twins won't be able to take advantage.

nicksaviking
09-28-2013, 02:11 PM
I don't have a problem bringing Pelfrey back as long as he's one of three free agents they bring in and the other two are Ervin Santana and Matt Garza.

Yes, this is the problem. If Pelfrey is brought back along with two pitchers significantly better than him, no one would take issue. The problem is that Ryan almost certainly will not do so meaning Mike Pelfrey would likely be one of the top free agents the Twins sign next year which obviously should be unacceptable to all fans.

jokin
09-28-2013, 02:13 PM
But you KNOW that they don't look at their money as "unlimited" so there is no point to be made there.

On no planet is Mike Pelfrey a 3.

Sorry for stepping on your "astronomical" analogy, Shane. I posted before reading the entire thread.

Shane Wahl
09-28-2013, 02:15 PM
Haha--Correia, Pelfrey, Diamond, Gibson, Duensing . . . . your 2014 opening rotation. Ahahahahahaha! If 4/5 or 5/5 of this is correct, I am going to go insane next year. I know it.

Shane Wahl
09-28-2013, 02:16 PM
Sorry for stepping on your "astronomical" analogy, Shane. I posted before reading the entire thread.

Leave it to Mike Pelfrey to make great minds think alike . . .

Hosken Bombo Disco
09-28-2013, 02:40 PM
I caught the last part of Ryan's last appearance this morning.

One thing has gone unmentioned. At the very end Ryan mentioned that the Twins had won once all season, one single time, on the Friday prior to Terry Ryan coming on the show. It was an unprompted comment and was said in a light context, and Mackay was caught off guard but went with the joke. But then Ryan again said words to the effect of "one win on Fridays, something's gotta give".

I'd like to think it was a signal to expect a major announcement, but then again it's probably just me projecting meaning on a meaningless remark. Hey, in desperate times we grasp whatever straws we can.

Major Leauge Ready
09-28-2013, 03:06 PM
It is easy to solve our pitching problem when speaking theoretically. How many 1s/2s are available? Who would you get specifically? Let's keep in mind that there are only a couple teams in MLB that would not want to add a 1 or a 2 and they all have an extra $25M this year.

Tanaka – I like the idea but I fear the TV money is going to make the bidding on him crazy. It would be great but it is unrealistic to think we are going to outbid several teams with far deeper pockets.

Shields – KC has an option and will exercise it.

Jimenez – He has been good this year but his 2013 ERA is about 2 full runs better than 2012/2011. That’s a bit scary but he is probably our best shot.

Kuroda – Are we going to outbid the Yankees?

Lincecum – His aggregate ERA for the past 2 years is 4.79. Not really even close to as good as Correia. I don't for the life of me understand the love.

Hughes – He has been up and down. His aggregate ERA over ERA over the past 4 years is 4.66. Pelfrey’s 4 years prior to TJ averaged 4.27.

Johnson is high risk/reward. Great signing if we have two others we can’t count on at least in theory.

Lester – Red Sox have an option they will exercise

Garza is a head case. He has not lasted anywhere because he is a clubhouse cancer. No thanks.

Kazmir - Might be our 2nd best option.

That is really thin folks considering how many teams will be looking for pitching. We have to be realistic that we will probably simply get outbid by one of the major markets. They only realistic target for us in terms of a difference maker is Jimenez if you accept that Garza is not worth the headache and his other teams have all come to that conclusion.

ThePuck
09-28-2013, 03:26 PM
Listening to interview on 1500ESPN now. To paraphrase this is what he just said:
"I've seen your ERA stat, but I think the pitching has been better than the stats have indicated."

:rolleyes:

If Ryan thinks the pitching has been better than the ERA stat thinks he should look at the BAA, the QS, the Ks, and the IP for the starters and realize he's delusional and/or fooling no one with that kind of comment.

diehardtwinsfan
09-28-2013, 03:30 PM
It is easy to solve our pitching problem when speaking theoretically. How many 1s/2s are available? Who would you get specifically? Let's keep in mind that there are only a couple teams in MLB that would not want to add a 1 or a 2 and they all have an extra $25M this year.

Tanaka – I like the idea but I fear the TV money is going to make the bidding on him crazy. It would be great but it is unrealistic to think we are going to outbid several teams with far deeper pockets.

Shields – KC has an option and will exercise it.

Jimenez – He has been good this year but his 2013 ERA is about 2 full runs better than 2012/2011. That’s a bit scary but he is probably our best shot.

Kuroda – Are we going to outbid the Yankees?

Lincecum – His aggregate ERA for the past 2 years is 4.79. Not really even close to as good as Correia. I don't for the life of me understand the love.

Hughes – He has been up and down. His aggregate ERA over ERA over the past 4 years is 4.66. Pelfrey’s 4 years prior to TJ averaged 4.27.

Johnson is high risk/reward. Great signing if we have two others we can’t count on at least in theory.

Lester – Red Sox have an option they will exercise

Garza is a head case. He has not lasted anywhere because he is a clubhouse cancer. No thanks.

Kazmir - Might be our 2nd best option.

That is really thin folks considering how many teams will be looking for pitching. We have to be realistic that we will probably simply get outbid by one of the major markets. They only realistic target for us in terms of a difference maker is Jimenez if you accept that Garza is not worth the headache and his other teams have all come to that conclusion.

You pretty much nailed it. The nice thing about Tanaka is that if you win the posting bid, you get exclusive negotiating rights. Given his age, if I was going to toss 50-100M at a guy, it would probably be him (note that includes posting fee). I like Hughes as another signing as well, though honestly, I'd be happy with Tanka or Abreau instead... Tanaka is more of a need obviously.

Marta Shearing
09-28-2013, 05:54 PM
Phil Mackey asked about Terry Ryan's
status as GM. "I'm pretty locked in here."

Just sickening listening to this guy.

Marta Shearing
09-28-2013, 06:10 PM
From 2008-2010 I was part of a huge season ticket group. We had 4 premium seats. Got together every february and drank beer and picked our games. Good times. I dropped out after they embarrassed themselves AGAIN in the playoffs. Just found out yesterday the group is no more. Everybody dropped out. Kind of sad.

Marta Shearing
09-28-2013, 06:13 PM
Haha--
Correia, Pelfrey, Diamond, Gibson, Duensing . . . . your 2014 opening rotation. Ahahahahahaha! If 4/5 or 5/5 of this is correct, I am going to go insane next year. I know it.

Would they actually sink to that level of insulting their fans by putting duensing back in the rotation?

Kwak
09-28-2013, 06:33 PM
Would they actually sink to that level of insulting their fans by putting duensing back in the rotation?
One has to be creative to assemble a major league (even a poor one) roster for ~$65MM when one guy gets $23MM. It can be done (witness Houston and Miami) but it takes total committment to payroll slashing. The Twins are headed in that direction--but, as in everything they try--they go slowly.

TheLeviathan
09-28-2013, 07:07 PM
Attendance should absolutely be a concern. The team sold, IMO, a sizable chunk of season tix on their allstar game promises. Those expire soon and even if Sano and Buxton are amazing it's still likely three years at the soonest that they start to draw fans into more than single game purchases. Attendance could start to be a very real factor precisely at the times most here think it will be time to plunge heavy into FA.

If the ERA comment is accurate, that is a major blow to my feelings about Ryan. One thing that has always been impressive about the man is his willingness to be accountable. That comment is both a terrible copout and incredibly false way to evaluate performance. It depens my worries that we still set the bar too low on pitching expectations.

gunnarthor
09-28-2013, 07:08 PM
I'm not sure there's really all that much in the interview to get upset or surprised about. The Twins have one pitcher for next years rotation - Correia. This year they had 8 pitchers make at least 10 starts. Last year it was 9. They'll need arms. Pelfrey managed to throw 150 innings while recovering from TJ surgery. Of course the Twins would want him back. He isn't a great pitcher (although fWAR likes him based on a really low fip) but the Twins need 8. He'll likely be one of them.

drivlikejehu
09-28-2013, 07:31 PM
I'm not sure there's really all that much in the interview to get upset or surprised about. The Twins have one pitcher for next years rotation - Correia. This year they had 8 pitchers make at least 10 starts. Last year it was 9. They'll need arms. Pelfrey managed to throw 150 innings while recovering from TJ surgery. Of course the Twins would want him back. He isn't a great pitcher (although fWAR likes him based on a really low fip) but the Twins need 8. He'll likely be one of them.

Surprising? Not at all. But I'm not sure fans should be happy when the GM basically tells them to expect 90+ losses again, and for the foreseeable future.

Marta Shearing
09-28-2013, 07:34 PM
The crazy thing is that pelfrey's gonna take the best offer he can get, and Ryan will probably even get outbid for pelfrey.

howieramone
09-28-2013, 07:49 PM
Attendance should absolutely be a concern. The team sold, IMO, a sizable chunk of season tix on their allstar game promises. Those expire soon and even if Sano and Buxton are amazing it's still likely three years at the soonest that they start to draw fans into more than single game purchases. Attendance could start to be a very real factor precisely at the times most here think it will be time to plunge heavy into FA.

If the ERA comment is accurate, that is a major blow to my feelings about Ryan. One thing that has always been impressive about the man is his willingness to be accountable. That comment is both a terrible copout and incredibly false way to evaluate performance. It depens my worries that we still set the bar too low on pitching expectations.

1. The full season ticket package is 81 games. I doubt the full package is heavily influenced by 1 All-Star game.
2. Sano and Buxton will be at Target Field no later than September 1st. 1st down payment is due in October on renewals. I would say the soonest is much more likely to be 30-45 days than 3 years.
3. That 1 sentence, 18 word paraphrase has not been verified by another source. Until I hear otherwise, I'm assuming it's no more accurate than the quote provided that Ryan will never participate in free agency again.

TheLeviathan
09-28-2013, 08:09 PM
1. The full season ticket package is 81 games. I doubt the full package is heavily influenced by 1 All-Star game.

I can tell you as a former season ticket holder that they HEAVILY pushed returning to it for the incentive of getting all-star game tickets. The fact that they haven't seen an even bigger dip in those numbers is very much related to that IMO.

As for the rest, it's hard to take your position seriously. Prospect hope doesn't sell season tickets in most any market or any sport. People are interested to see those players, but not to the tune of thousands of dollars before they even know if the team is going to be watchable much less competitive.

And even if that hope did sell tickets...a 30-45 day estimate for 1 player that is almost certain not to be on the team next year and another who might not be until July is, again, hard to take seriously. My three year estimate was based on likely having them both completing their rookie years prior to impacting sales.

gunnarthor
09-28-2013, 08:41 PM
Surprising? Not at all. But I'm not sure fans should be happy when the GM basically tells them to expect 90+ losses again, and for the foreseeable future.

Good thing the GM didn't say that.

TheLeviathan
09-28-2013, 08:49 PM
Good thing the GM didn't say that.

Of course not, but he also admitted they'd do little in the near term to make significant improvement. So another very poor season is pretty likely given that pronouncement.

Brock Beauchamp
09-28-2013, 08:56 PM
Hughes – He has been up and down. His aggregate ERA over ERA over the past 4 years is 4.66. Pelfrey’s 4 years prior to TJ averaged 4.27.

This is an insane way to judge two pitchers. One pitched in the AL East in Yankee Stadium. The other pitched in the NL East in Citi Field.

ThePuck
09-28-2013, 08:56 PM
Of course not, but he also admitted they'd do little in the near term to make significant improvement. So another very poor season is pretty likely given that pronouncement.

Do people actually expect those words to come out of his mouth?

chopper0080
09-28-2013, 08:58 PM
Listening to interview on 1500ESPN now. To paraphrase this is what he just said:
"I've seen your ERA stat, but I think the pitching has been better than the stats have indicated."

:rolleyes:

Well if that is the case, I can always follow the Twins through this site and through the box score until they get as serious about winning as I am. Opens up some time and money that is probably better served being used on my family.

Thegrin
09-28-2013, 09:23 PM
to listen to the full interview >>>HERE (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Terry_Ryan_will_be_back_as_Twins_GM_Gardenhire_dec ision_coming_soon092813)

TheLeviathan
09-28-2013, 09:38 PM
to listen to the full interview >>>HERE (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Terry_Ryan_will_be_back_as_Twins_GM_Gardenhire_dec ision_coming_soon092813)

So the OP's paraphrasing was almost word-for-word accurate. So all the skepticism talk can just die right here, he dismissed the ERA stat in favor of saying he wasn't "as down" on the pitching as the stat indicates. Ugh.

Terry also said he thought before the season they could finish at or above .500.

What roster was he looking at?

Alex
09-28-2013, 09:42 PM
If pitching is better than the ERA stat indicates, why did we carry 13 pitchers?

ThePuck
09-28-2013, 09:44 PM
If pitching is better than the ERA stat indicates, why did we carry 13 pitchers?

Our starting pitching is by far the worst in baseball. There is no way around it.

ThePuck
09-28-2013, 09:47 PM
So the OP's paraphrasing was almost word-for-word accurate. So all the skepticism talk can just die right here

It should...but it won't.

howieramone
09-28-2013, 09:58 PM
So the OP's paraphrasing was almost word-for-word accurate. So all the skepticism talk can just die right here, he dismissed the ERA stat in favor of saying he wasn't "as down" on the pitching as the stat indicates. Ugh.

Terry also said he thought before the season they could finish at or above .500.

What roster was he looking at? He didn't give an exact stat. They were talking in generic terms. Ryan said he is not as down on his pitching as the interviewer's statement. I can't say that I agree with him, but I certainly don't think this was the time or place to throw his entire pitching staff under the bus.

chopper0080
09-28-2013, 10:00 PM
Our starting pitching is by far the worst in baseball. There is no way around it.

In a time where pitching is up around the rest of baseball.

TheLeviathan
09-28-2013, 10:02 PM
He didn't give an exact stat. They were talking in generic terms. Ryan said he is not as down on his pitching as the interviewer's statement. I can't say that I agree with him, but I certainly don't think this was the time or place to throw his entire pitching staff under the bus.

But it was the right time to throw the offense and particularly Plouffe under the bus? Because he did that. Why not just throw both under the bus then, they were both a problem.

Alex
09-28-2013, 10:27 PM
With each interview I get more and more disappointed about how this organization is being run.

In the last week, Mike Bernadino quoted Ryan as saying he's not a velocity guy and that he also held some disdain for win expectation. I actually don't mind the latter as the point was about the team outplayed the expectation by three, when that small of a number is really not indicative of anything, but tha wasn't how Ryan put it and it seemed to be another time the Twins scoffed at ideas outside of their traditional ones.

jokin
09-28-2013, 10:39 PM
He didn't give an exact stat. They were talking in generic terms. Ryan said he is not as down on his pitching as the interviewer's statement. I can't say that I agree with him, but I certainly don't think this was the time or place to throw his entire pitching staff under the bus.

Soooo. would the right time or place be just after season ticket renewal season? And obfuscating on the obvious until then.....would be just fine for you....even though you don't agree with him? Cognitive Dissonance 101.

jokin
09-28-2013, 10:45 PM
"Terry Ryan 'Last' Appearance on Inside Twins"

I must admit, I had my hopes up that upon perusing the title of this thread......that the headline contained an entirely different meaning than what the content actually revealed. So now after reading and hearing the interview, I'm even more deptressed.

drivlikejehu
09-29-2013, 07:57 AM
Ryan isn't required to give interviews. So if he doesn't want to talk about the team, he can simply not talk about the team.

I think Twins fans need to seriously reconsider their willingness to financially support a team that is not just mismanaged, but also deeply dishonest. The team took hundreds of millions in taxpayer dollars in exchange for a lie- that they would put the new revenue to use.

At least Ryan is honest about the fact wins and losses don't matter to him, fans don't matter to him. Strutting around as an 'old school' GM is what matters to him.

Major Leauge Ready
09-29-2013, 08:01 AM
This is an insane way to judge two pitchers. One pitched in the AL East in Yankee Stadium. The other pitched in the NL East in Citi Field.

Wow! Did you entirely miss the point. I recognize the difference and actually started to point out the difference but it was already a long post an within the context of the point being made it did not warrant further explanation. I have written here in the past that Hughes is one of the few SPs I think is a realistic option. Obviously, Target field and the AL central will be benefit Hughes. I would consider it a good sign if we get him. However, it does not change the two points being made in the previous post. One, that there are very realistic options. The theorists here say just go do it. Two, Some of the names being thrown out as much better options are not necessarily better. (ie. Lincecum)

Rosterman
09-29-2013, 09:55 AM
Well, remember, the Twins supposedly wanted Pelfry back in the Santana deal.

The big needs is a big line-up/bench bat...someone to DH other than Doumit. Also, at least three free agent starters. One could be Plefry, but the otehr two better shine (and would be expensive).

Offensively, the Twins did suck this year, strikeouts and advancing runners and all. But I look and think, this is not a bad battery for next season:

C - Pinto
1B - Mauer
2B - Dozier
SS - Florimon
3B - Plouffe
RF - Arcia
CF - Presley
LF - Willingham
DH - Doumit

Again, a significant bat in the lineup would be nice. Would hope that Presley is a palcesetter only. Florimon, I would want more offense. If Willingham is back, that is a big plus. Without Mauer at 1B you are still stuck with Colabello or Parmelee, neitehr longterm, but possible bench guys (Parmelee, Colabello, Escobar, Mastro or someone else). You have your three catchers.

If Mauer starts at catcher, I guess you add Herrmann back into the mix, but you have a dead spot at 1B.

The bullpen will patch together.

But with Correia being the only bonafide returneee, maybe Diamond, you can keep Gibson on the farm until you trade one of your free agent "signees" or Correia. Deduno is a question. Worley may never make it back. Meyer and May and Dean and Darnell are the up-and-comers.

The Twins can spend $20-25 million (maybe more with the MLB money) easily on just the rotation for each of the next three seasons.

Humm...four...Pelfry, Santana and two bonafides at $10-12 million a year for 2-3 years.

raindog
09-29-2013, 10:50 AM
"Terry Ryan 'Last' Appearance on Inside Twins"

I must admit, I had my hopes up that upon perusing the title of this thread......that the headline contained an entirely different meaning than what the content actually revealed. So now after reading and hearing the interview, I'm even more deptressed.

Sorry. :(

To be fair, he did say he's fully accountable and takes all the blame. But at times he was pretty contradictory.

Early on he was talking about how the offense was a bigger problem than the pitching. Why does it matter? The offense and pitching were God awful.

ThePuck
09-29-2013, 10:53 AM
Sorry. :(

To be fair, he did say he's fully accountable and takes all the blame. But at times he was pretty contradictory.

Early on he was talking about how the offense was a bigger problem than the pitching. Why does it matter? The offense and pitching were God awful.

It matters because last offseason he said he'd do everything he could to significantly improve the starting pitching. So, of course, he's going to focus more on the offense with his comments.

big dog
09-29-2013, 11:03 AM
Haha--Correia, Pelfrey, Diamond, Gibson, Duensing . . . . your 2014 opening rotation. Ahahahahahaha! If 4/5 or 5/5 of this is correct, I am going to go insane next year. I know it.

Totally agree. If you take #3, #4, #5 from that pool, fine. If you don't have two starters better than that, why bother. You're shooting for 4th place at that point.

big dog
09-29-2013, 11:05 AM
One has to be creative to assemble a major league (even a poor one) roster for ~$65MM when one guy gets $23MM. It can be done (witness Houston and Miami) but it takes total committment to payroll slashing. The Twins are headed in that direction--but, as in everything they try--they go slowly.

And if they spend $63 million next year, then they aren't even trying for 4th place.

chopper0080
09-29-2013, 11:27 AM
Well, remember, the Twins supposedly wanted Pelfry back in the Santana deal.

The big needs is a big line-up/bench bat...someone to DH other than Doumit. Also, at least three free agent starters. One could be Plefry, but the otehr two better shine (and would be expensive).

Offensively, the Twins did suck this year, strikeouts and advancing runners and all. But I look and think, this is not a bad battery for next season:

C - Pinto
1B - Mauer
2B - Dozier
SS - Florimon
3B - Plouffe
RF - Arcia
CF - Presley
LF - Willingham
DH - Doumit

Again, a significant bat in the lineup would be nice. Would hope that Presley is a palcesetter only. Florimon, I would want more offense. If Willingham is back, that is a big plus. Without Mauer at 1B you are still stuck with Colabello or Parmelee, neitehr longterm, but possible bench guys (Parmelee, Colabello, Escobar, Mastro or someone else). You have your three catchers.

If Mauer starts at catcher, I guess you add Herrmann back into the mix, but you have a dead spot at 1B.

The bullpen will patch together.

But with Correia being the only bonafide returneee, maybe Diamond, you can keep Gibson on the farm until you trade one of your free agent "signees" or Correia. Deduno is a question. Worley may never make it back. Meyer and May and Dean and Darnell are the up-and-comers.

The Twins can spend $20-25 million (maybe more with the MLB money) easily on just the rotation for each of the next three seasons.

Humm...four...Pelfry, Santana and two bonafides at $10-12 million a year for 2-3 years.

That lineup sucks and leads to another 90 loss season.

Badsmerf
09-29-2013, 12:07 PM
Just listened to the interview.

Disturbing TR quotes:

Pitching better than hitting.
Thought there was a good chance to finish over coming into the year .500 (are you ****ing kidding me!!)
Difficult time with run support (insisting pitching was fine).
"Sprinkle in FA." When talking about A's and Indians. He is so out of touch.
Chasing FA route setting yourself up for failure (they are the devil apparently).
Pelfrey is going to be here for sure. - If you have the money, why not get someone with upside?

Shane Wahl
09-29-2013, 02:06 PM
How many times will Pelfrey implode in the 5th or 6th inning next year?

cmathewson
09-29-2013, 02:12 PM
Just listened to the interview.

Disturbing TR quotes:

Pitching better than hitting.
Thought there was a good chance to finish over coming into the year .500 (are you ****ing kidding me!!)
Difficult time with run support (insisting pitching was fine).
"Sprinkle in FA." When talking about A's and Indians. He is so out of touch.
Chasing FA route setting yourself up for failure (they are the devil apparently).
Pelfrey is going to be here for sure. - If you have the money, why not get someone with upside?

I have long been an apologist for TR. But that stance is becoming untenable. I think he's not only out of touch with his team, he's out of touch with the game. The game has changed to the point where you can't grind out wins with mediocre talent. My confidence in the Twins future is at a new low.

Shane Wahl
09-29-2013, 02:27 PM
I have long been an apologist for TR. But that stance is becoming untenable. I think he's not only out of touch with his team, he's out of touch with the game. The game has changed to the point where you can't grind out wins with mediocre talent. My confidence in the Twins future is at a new low.

Exact same for me. I mark my 3,000th post with merely a "ditto" here.

drivlikejehu
09-29-2013, 02:54 PM
Not that it lets him off the hook for his ineptitude, but Ryan is probably taking heat on purpose to shield ownership. That's probably why Ryan was put back in the GM role to begin with - slash payroll, while using the credibility he built up back in the day to cover for the Pohlads' sucking tens or hundreds of millions out of the organization.

This fits neatly with Pohlad's bizarre statement recently about being willing to spend in the short-term, which of course was meaningless because top free agents rarely agree to one-year deals. And even that was probably not true, given what Ryan is publicly saying.

Every actual indication we have is that the Twins will try to rebuild on the cheap, and if that doesn't work, they will just accept losing, whether its for 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc. The Marlins have shown how the revenue sharing system makes a strategy like that viable despite the reduction in ticket sales, merchandise, etc.

old nurse
09-29-2013, 03:20 PM
So the OP's paraphrasing was almost word-for-word accurate. So all the skepticism talk can just die right here, he dismissed the ERA stat in favor of saying he wasn't "as down" on the pitching as the stat indicates. Ugh.

Terry also said he thought before the season they could finish at or above .500.

What roster was he looking at?

A season of IFS. IF Plouffe plays nearer to the player he was last June and July. If Diamond, Willingham and Doumit perform like last year. If Hicks is league average at hitting. If Worley was the pitcher he was in Philli. If the middle infield becomes functional. If Morneau regains more of his old form. If Correia pitches like normal. If Pelfrey is what he was if NY. If all those ifs were true, the Twins could have been a .500 team.
They weren't.
I think Ryan hoped the pitchers added and Diamond would be an aggregate league average pitcher. He hoped the players maintained or stepped up their level of play. Dozier has, no one else did. No rookies stepped forward. Hence, the Twins became what they are.

TheLeviathan
09-29-2013, 03:29 PM
A season of IFS. IF Plouffe plays nearer to the player he was last June and July. If Diamond, Willingham and Doumit perform like last year. If Hicks is league average at hitting. If Worley was the pitcher he was in Philli. If the middle infield becomes functional. If Morneau regains more of his old form. If Correia pitches like normal. If Pelfrey is what he was if NY. If all those ifs were true, the Twins could have been a .500 team.
They weren't.
I think Ryan hoped the pitchers added and Diamond would be an aggregate league average pitcher. He hoped the players maintained or stepped up their level of play. Dozier has, no one else did. No rookies stepped forward. Hence, the Twins became what they are.

If your plan is to have everything go right with no margin for error....I call that poor planning. I only would excuse the Worley and Hicks issues personally. Plouffe's history was not on our side that he would get better. Ditto Willingham and Doumit.

Everything you listed was very much forseeable as problems. In fact, many here posted exactly those concerns prior to the season. This wasn't some kind of disaster of bad luck - this was a roster with limited talent that was relying too much on hope rather than depth of actual talent.

howieramone
09-29-2013, 04:46 PM
The plan to compete was a disaster. The rebuilding plan, now all of 22 months old, continues to show signs of future success. A less stable or experienced organization may well have commingled the two, surrendered to pressure, and traded Sano and/or Buxton.

old nurse
09-29-2013, 07:16 PM
If your plan is to have everything go right with no margin for error....I call that poor planning. I only would excuse the Worley and Hicks issues personally. Plouffe's history was not on our side that he would get better. Ditto Willingham and Doumit.

Everything you listed was very much forseeable as problems. In fact, many here posted exactly those concerns prior to the season. This wasn't some kind of disaster of bad luck - this was a roster with limited talent that was relying too much on hope rather than depth of actual talent.

I though it was a little more obvious that the response I gave you that I had a bit of sarcasm to go with the answer. Poor planning? The free agent pitching thread has been beaten so dead and thin there is nothing left of the horse for the crows to pick at. A little worse was a reasonable expectation for Doumit and Willingam yes, utterly horrid seasons,no. Yes you can claim many saw Plouffe would be what he was. Alternatives? About as viable as hoping last June and July was not a fluke. With what was available to add, and having more of an eye for the future needs with what was subtractable Ryan did what he could do. Ryan could have done better, he could have done worse.

Mr. Brooks
09-29-2013, 08:38 PM
A season of IFS. IF Plouffe plays nearer to the player he was last June and July. If Diamond, Willingham and Doumit perform like last year. If Hicks is league average at hitting. If Worley was the pitcher he was in Philli. If the middle infield becomes functional. If Morneau regains more of his old form. If Correia pitches like normal. If Pelfrey is what he was if NY. If all those ifs were true, the Twins could have been a .500 team.
They weren't.
I think Ryan hoped the pitchers added and Diamond would be an aggregate league average pitcher. He hoped the players maintained or stepped up their level of play. Dozier has, no one else did. No rookies stepped forward. Hence, the Twins became what they are.

Your argument only holds water if Gardy and Anderson are let go.
Ryan doesn't get to claim his players underachieved if he is just going to bring back the field staff who is in charge of getting players to play to their capabilities.

old nurse
09-29-2013, 09:27 PM
Your argument only holds water if Gardy and Anderson are let go.
Ryan doesn't get to claim his players underachieved if he is just going to bring back the field staff who is in charge of getting players to play to their capabilities.

As an opinion on what Ryan may have thought it doesn't need anyone to be fired or retained. If he claims the players underachieved it should be on the players that they underachieved. Nobody ever said it was because of Gardenhire when players have career years, why should it be on him and the staff when they don't?

TheLeviathan
09-29-2013, 10:00 PM
I though it was a little more obvious that the response I gave you that I had a bit of sarcasm to go with the answer.

Considering the opinion didn't fall far from your typical position, how was it obvious you were being sarcastic exactly?


A little worse was a reasonable expectation for Doumit and Willingam yes, utterly horrid seasons,no.

How about predicting Willy to be hurt and Doumit to slump. Those were both very much in their career histories.

The commentary here has nothing to do with whether Ryan could or could not have done more. It has everything to do with him evaluating the roster he was offering and his belief they could play .500. That has nothing to do with FA or trades or anything else but entirely with a baffling conclusion after evaluating his roster.

ThePuck
09-29-2013, 10:14 PM
Considering the opinion didn't fall far from your typical position, how was it obvious you were being sarcastic exactly?



How about predicting Willy to be hurt and Doumit to slump. Those were both very much in their career histories.

The commentary here has nothing to do with whether Ryan could or could not have done more. It has everything to do with him evaluating the roster he was offering and his belief they could play .500. That has nothing to do with FA or trades or anything else but entirely with a baffling conclusion after evaluating his roster.

With the rotation Ryan put together, there was no way in the world we could achieve .500. The loss of our #1 and #2 hitters didn't help. Ryan is trying to sell the golden gate bridge...and some are trying to buy it. I just hope Ryan doesn't truly believe they had a shot at .500.

jokin
09-29-2013, 10:24 PM
I though it was a little more obvious that the response I gave you that I had a bit of sarcasm to go with the answer..........

and having more of an eye for the future needs with what was subtractable........Ryan could have done better, he could have done worse.

I wonder if you could give everyone an advance heads-up....is the above-bolded yet another "obvious bit of sarcasm"?.....because I'm having a hard time seeing it as anything but that....or....really bad rationalization.

jokin
09-29-2013, 10:35 PM
FWIW- The mood around Twinsland isn't going to get any better any time soon. Watching the local sports here this evening, Gardy is appearing on SportsSunday, apparently with a contract extension in his back pocket.....that is sure to get the phones ringing for season ticket renewals come tomorrow.

Also, if anyone has access to The Sports Show this evening......Reusse went off on one of his classic, out of control rants......without naming (managerial) names, lambasting both the FO and the Field Manager on treating the players so softly and demanding so little from them and in summation, having a complete lack of any sense of urgency, need for radical change or evident awareness of the level of ineptitude demonstrated by the personnel on this year's club.

Marta Shearing
09-29-2013, 10:35 PM
Both of you are reported. Just kidding.

Marta Shearing
09-29-2013, 10:37 PM
Did they really extend gardy?

jokin
09-29-2013, 10:45 PM
Did they really extend gardy?

Mike Max reported it as a rumor on the 10PM sports-cast. Gardy will be up shortly on Sports Sunday to elaborate on that rumor.

Kwak
09-29-2013, 10:48 PM
Not that it lets him off the hook for his ineptitude, but Ryan is probably taking heat on purpose to shield ownership. That's probably why Ryan was put back in the GM role to begin with - slash payroll, while using the credibility he built up back in the day to cover for the Pohlads' sucking tens or hundreds of millions out of the organization.

This fits neatly with Pohlad's bizarre statement recently about being willing to spend in the short-term, which of course was meaningless because top free agents rarely agree to one-year deals. And even that was probably not true, given what Ryan is publicly saying.

Every actual indication we have is that the Twins will try to rebuild on the cheap, and if that doesn't work, they will just accept losing, whether its for 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc. The Marlins have shown how the revenue sharing system makes a strategy like that viable despite the reduction in ticket sales, merchandise, etc.

+1000