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View Full Version : Article: 2012 MLB Draft starting to come into focus



Cody Christie
04-18-2012, 10:52 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?447-2012-MLB-Draft-starting-to-come-into-focus

Ultima Ratio
04-18-2012, 10:55 PM
Where does this year's draft talent stack up against other or "normal" draft's talent? I have the impression that the talent is down this year, but I may be wrong.

Seth Stohs
04-18-2012, 10:57 PM
I've heard it is down, but there's no way of actually knowing that. I'm working on some draft preview kind of stories too and finding that it's really impossible to project.

Ultima Ratio
04-18-2012, 11:01 PM
I was thinking how herculean a task it would be to make a determination of talent in one draft compared to another, but no so difficult to compare the talent 1-10. I do think the 1-10 projections this year are not as talented comparatively, but what the heck do I know. :)

Seth Stohs
04-18-2012, 11:17 PM
Consider that in each draft, somewhere around 1600 players get drafted. Maybe 50-55% of them sign.

Even just analysing the first ten rounds, we're talking about 350-400 players. Can we analyze the draft before the draft? Can we even analyze it 5 or even 10 years later? Probably not. I've looked back 30+ years. It's incredible.

twinsfanstreif
04-18-2012, 11:20 PM
I've heard it is down, but there's no way of actually knowing that. I'm working on some draft preview kind of stories too and finding that it's really impossible to project.

I've heard that it is down on top end talent but deep overall, especially in pitching. Guys like Appel and Zimmer would've been on the bottom of the top 10 or early teens last year but buxton and zunino could've been top 5. I don't think this really affects us because we have a top 2 pick. I really think that the weakness in this draft is due to all the questions around players whether it's injuries or inconsistencies. There is some really good talent though and I think draft experts are gonna be surprised with how well this draft turns out.

twinstalker
04-19-2012, 05:33 AM
Consensus is that the talent is waaaaaaaayyyyy down at the top of the draft. Buxton is rated slightly worse than Starling, and the consensus said Starling was drafted too high. The top pick this year would maybe have gone 8-10 last year. While it may be true that this is a deep draft, that doesn't matter at all for the 2nd pick. As usual, the Minnesota team gets hosed with its top pick after a miserable previous season. What's really sad is that last year's pitchers were all the guys the Twins need this year:

Bauer
Cole
Bundy
Hultzen
Bradley
and then there's Anthony Rendon, a 3B/2B who could quickly take Valencia's spot (Sano's going to end up corner OF)

The Twins would have taken ANY of those five pitchers long before any pitcher this year. Zimmer might have some possibilities, but I think Houston will take him if he's good enough to go #2, which is debatable. Appel is getting hit and not striking guys out at a good enough rate for a very high pick (3.32 ERA in 57 IP, 55 K as of last week). This looks bad. Right now the safest pick Zunino. Giolito would have been the first pick, I think, and I guess now I'm following Gausman, Wacha, and Stroman. All these guys are reaches right now, but maybe two will look better come June.

twinswon1991
04-19-2012, 07:36 AM
I quit reading as soon as you mentioned drafting for need. Terry Ryan cant assess the current needs of the club let alone the needs of the club 3 years down the road when these prospects are ready. Stick to the. NFL draft Cody you have shown you know nothing about mlb draft logic.

MWLFan
04-19-2012, 07:56 AM
My take is Cody was not advocating the draft for need philosophy, just stating that it is a option. Which it is. Is it the best, probably not. But I can see where having another high tools high school outfielder would not be something to make most Twins fans hearts stop from excitement. It would however make someone like Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson expendable to a trade however, if either hit enough this year to make themselves attractive to another team. Could that bring a arm the Twins could use at the top of the roatation at some point. Maybe. Stock piling assests is not a bad thing. Me I kind of like the Catcher, that it a position of need.

dave_dw
04-19-2012, 08:06 AM
I sure hope they just draft whoever they think is the best player. If Buxton falls to #2, they better not pass him up solely on the fact that they've got organizational depth in the OF.

twinswon1991
04-19-2012, 09:00 AM
I sure hope they just draft whoever they think is the best player. If Buxton falls to #2, they better not pass him up solely on the fact that they've got organizational depth in the OF.

I highly doubt the Twins have a major league starting calibur outfield in their system outside of Sano (if he doesnt end up at 1b).

Hicks, Benson, and Revere all appear to be fringe mlb starters at best and all have had enough time in the minors that you wonder if they will ever make it.

gunnarthor
04-19-2012, 09:16 AM
I gotta say, I'm intrigued about Zunino at #2. If Buxton goes to Houston (a big if) an eventual Mauer/Zunino C/DH platoon could be pretty impressive.

mike wants wins
04-19-2012, 09:52 AM
Comparing to last year is odd. It is considered the deepest draft ever. That said, if they pass on a pitcher, I have no idea how this team will ever get one.

Thrylos
04-19-2012, 10:13 AM
I think that right now, conclusions can be made about the NFL draft only :) The MLB rule 4 draft is still far away. A couple of wildcards in those lists you see out there: The people who make the lists spend time scouting in the US and centered on certain areas in the US particularly. At some point later this spring we will start hearing about talent in Puerto Rico and Canada. Also, some of the kids, esp. high school would have developed until last time seen by the people who make lists. Still too early, but I think that the Twins should get the pitcher with the highest potential (which is different that the 'most ready now' pitcher) with the #2 overall pick

Harrison Greeley III
04-19-2012, 10:18 AM
Comparing to last year is odd. It is considered the deepest draft ever. That said, if they pass on a pitcher, I have no idea how this team will ever get one.

Over Zunino? I just want the best player available. If this really is a deep draft, I would rather take a sure thing position player up top and use 3 of the next 4 picks on pitching. Pitching is just so volatile in terms of outcomes. I'd rather get the best position player available.

mike wants wins
04-19-2012, 11:10 AM
Since I never see them trading for or signing a starting pitcher that is great and in his prime earning years, yes, I want a pitcher with the highest upside.

Harrison Greeley III
04-19-2012, 11:28 AM
You can get good pitchers elsewhere in the Top 72 where the Twins have 5 picks. The #2 needs to be as close to a sure thing as possible. If the best player was a pitcher by a mile by the time June comes around, then sure. But that doesn't appear to be the case here. A lot could happen, but right now I think Zunino's the guy.

DJSim22
04-19-2012, 12:28 PM
I like Zunino and Correa the best. If they choose to take a pitcher, please take Zimmer over Appel. No need to choose another pitch to contact type with the #2 pick.

Steve Lein
04-19-2012, 12:55 PM
Kevin Goldstein answered the "strength of this draft class" question on Twitter a few days ago. On the 20-80 scouting scale, he had last years Draft class as a 65-70, this years as a 40-45, so it's a below average class according to him. Also stated that this years potential #1 picks wouldn't have been picked in the top 5 last year.

James Richter
04-19-2012, 01:26 PM
Hicks, Benson, and Revere all appear to be fringe mlb starters at best and all have had enough time in the minors that you wonder if they will ever make it.

Career Minor league PA and OPS for:

Revere: 1668, .788
Benson: 2431, .797
Hicks: 1603, .786
Denard Span: 2428, .711
Michael Cuddyer: 2912, .868

Ultima Ratio
04-19-2012, 02:14 PM
Pitching is always priority #1, always. Good pitching keeps you in games, leading to more wins -- much more so than offense will on a consistent basis. That said, if there are no #2 projected starters or higher, go with the best player available, IMO.

bulldogguy
04-19-2012, 04:39 PM
Good comment Richter....way too early to get excited about Revere, Benson or Hicks. My god, don't people understand that there are only a handful of players that ever come up from the minors and stick for good. Its a development process that is not an exact science no matter how much statistical analysis and eye ball tests are done.

twinsfanstreif
04-21-2012, 02:51 AM
Comparing to last year is odd. It is considered the deepest draft ever. That said, if they pass on a pitcher, I have no idea how this team will ever get one.

The problem is the pitchers available in this draft, here are the numbers from the last start of the top 3 college pitchers projected in this draft: Kevin Gausman - 7 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, Kyle Zimmer - 8 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, Mark Appel - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. None of those numbers are ace numbers and all of them give up WAY too many hits, if they're doing that in college major league hitters are gonna distroy them.

shs_59
04-22-2012, 09:18 AM
The problem is the pitchers available in this draft, here are the numbers from the last start of the top 3 college pitchers projected in this draft: Kevin Gausman - 7 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, Kyle Zimmer - 8 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, Mark Appel - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. None of those numbers are ace numbers and all of them give up WAY too many hits, if they're doing that in college major league hitters are gonna distroy them.

Well, to some degree you're right, but also its all about projectibility and upside. Maybe Zimmer has a bit more upside, and room for improvement compared to many other college pitchers, maybe he doesn't . The point is, it doesn't automatically mean they'll be much worse in the majors. Remember, college hitters use Metal bats, last i checked, and for some they actually IMPROVE once in proffesional ball (minor-lgs.) because they get to face wooden bats.

I'd Be fine With Zimmer or Giolto @ #2 but thats it on the pitching front. (well Lucas Gioloto is a for-gone conclusion at this point that we won't go that high becuase of little scare)

So for me (ALTHOUGH unlike several fans I'm looking forward to all the high picks in the top 100 selections , and not just #2 overall)

it'd be between

Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino.

maybe Gioloto or Correa or Marrero sneaks in there last minute.

But i can' t wait to see what they'll do in the sandwich round and 2nd and 3rd rounds also.

twinsfanstreif
04-23-2012, 11:42 AM
Well, to some degree you're right, but also its all about projectibility and upside. Maybe Zimmer has a bit more upside, and room for improvement compared to many other college pitchers, maybe he doesn't . The point is, it doesn't automatically mean they'll be much worse in the majors. Remember, college hitters use Metal bats, last i checked, and for some they actually IMPROVE once in proffesional ball (minor-lgs.) because they get to face wooden bats.

I'd Be fine With Zimmer or Giolto @ #2 but thats it on the pitching front. (well Lucas Gioloto is a for-gone conclusion at this point that we won't go that high becuase of little scare)

So for me (ALTHOUGH unlike several fans I'm looking forward to all the high picks in the top 100 selections , and not just #2 overall)

it'd be between

Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino.

maybe Gioloto or Correa or Marrero sneaks in there last minute.

But i can' t wait to see what they'll do in the sandwich round and 2nd and 3rd rounds also.

I agree with you on upside but lots also drop off(see: Hunt, Shooter). This year garret cole has had a problem with giving up a bunch of hits though and he was better in college than anyone this year. I agree that Zimmer has the most upside but he also has the biggest potential to bust. He would be my choice though if we went college pitcher. Gausman scares me a little although he could be the next nolan ryan(same wind up, electric fastball, lots of walks) and Appel is over rated(mark my words he will just be an average major leaguer at best). I've said it before but I'm still not sold on buxton. I'm actually warming a bunch on Stroman, he's gonna make a lot of teams sorry that they passed on him. I'm still sold on Zunino though. I'm really interested in the supplemental round and the 2nd too. I know we'll get TJ Oakes at some point but I wonder if someone will drop to us like McCullers, Smoral, or Roache there's always a high ranked guy who drops for whatever reason, maybe that's Stroman or Watcha.