PDA

View Full Version : Souhan: Twins Must Pay For Pitching



John Bonnes
09-17-2013, 10:21 PM
Jim Souhan suggests that the Twins take their chances in the starting pitching free agent market - because it's worth the risk:


Competitively, a premier pitcher could hasten rebuilding and, if that occurred sooner rather than later, a premier pitcher could provide leadership for young arms arriving in the majors, and give the Twins a chance to win Game 1 of any playoff series, which is a big deal in a format in which a playoff series might last only one game.

Souhan: Twins must open checkbook for pitching, or losing will go on | Star Tribune (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/224169621.html?page=all&prepage=1&c=y#continue)

I'd suggest that the reason to so is a little more simple: because they don't really have any other options to turn it around, other than hope and pray the way they did this year. I'd actually say they need to look hard at getting two such guys, because I don't see one real difference maker in this class.

Twins Fan From Afar
09-17-2013, 10:23 PM
Agreed, John. I'd say $25 million in starting pitching this off-season.
No joke.
Worst case: the "surplus" of starting pitching we've heard about, but never before seen.

jorgenswest
09-17-2013, 10:35 PM
The best shot at a pitcher is Tanaka. While other pitchers may have better alternatives than Minnesota, Tanaka will have one option if the Twins win his posting bid. Can 40 million win this bid?

maxisagod
09-17-2013, 10:55 PM
I'd actually say they need to look hard at getting two such guys, because I don't see one real difference maker in this class.

I'd say they need to sign three again. 2 high performers and 1 injury/ low performer gamble.

frightwig
09-17-2013, 11:02 PM
They probably have 3 open spots in next April's rotation. Correia is likely to be back, and although Albers is probably just the new Diamond, I imagine that he's earned a spot to start next season. Beyond that, either Ryan has to sign 2 free agents and use the #5 spot to test a youngster, or he'll have to throw a few of Gibson/May/Meyer/Worley/Diamond/Darnell into the pool all at once and see who can swim. I doubt that he's going to want a rotation of prospects, so I'd look for Ryan to be shopping this winter. Let's just hope that his FA signings aren't 2 more guys like Correia and Pelfrey out of the bargain bin.

Kwak
09-17-2013, 11:02 PM
Smith asked for $30MM--and was replaced! If Ryan asks for $30MM does he get a bonus? Or a cacphony of laughter?

beckmt
09-17-2013, 11:22 PM
Smith asked for $30MM--and was replaced! If Ryan asks for $30MM does he get a bonus? Or a cacphony of laughter?
Smith's starting point was much higher. I agree with at least 2 starting pitchers from the upper end of talent. It will be difficult

Oxtung
09-18-2013, 12:37 AM
No matter what tier Ryan is signing from I don't think he'll sign more than 2 pitchers to major league contracts this off season. Correia and a lefty are virtual locks (Albers, Diamond, Hernandez) and I think Gibson is very likely.

Marta Shearing
09-18-2013, 02:41 AM
Is that really what happened with Billy Smith? He asked for more payroll and they fired him?

clutterheart
09-18-2013, 06:15 AM
Is that really what happened with Billy Smith? He asked for more payroll and they fired him?

Hindsight speculation. But they publicly said Smith was not going to be fired, despite his bad trades and poor performance. Then the scuttlebutt was the FO was not enamored with Smith's offseason plan and they fired him.
Then Ryan proceeded to let FA's like Cuddy and Kubel walk.

Maybe that was the right choice because they were able to get a few extra picks and Cuddy was turned into Berrios.

But from appearances Smith's plan was to retain guys and spend money, the FO said no.

clutterheart
09-18-2013, 06:27 AM
Assuming their physical checks out these are a few Free Agents I would overpay for in terms of dollars & years.
Scott Kazmir
Ubaldo Jimenez
Ricky Nolasco
Matt Garza

old nurse
09-18-2013, 06:30 AM
Hindsight speculation. But they publicly said Smith was not going to be fired, despite his bad trades and poor performance. Then the scuttlebutt was the FO was not enamored with Smith's offseason plan and they fired him.
Then Ryan proceeded to let FA's like Cuddy and Kubel walk.

Maybe that was the right choice because they were able to get a few extra picks and Cuddy was turned into Berrios.

But from appearances Smith's plan was to retain guys and spend money, the FO said no.

Actually Berrios and Chargois for Cuddyer
Luke Bard for Kubel
only time will tell if it was a good choice

Shane Wahl
09-18-2013, 07:53 AM
Ervin Santana (3 years), Phil Hughes (2 years), and Johan Santana (1 year + option) would be my choices. All incentives included and this probably amounts to maxing at $30 in 2014 and 2015.

Jimenez is also interesting.

Shane Wahl
09-18-2013, 07:54 AM
Actually Berrios and Chargois for Cuddyer
Luke Bard for Kubel
only time will tell if it was a good choice

I have sincere doubts that Bard and Chargois are ever reaching the majors.

mike wants wins
09-18-2013, 08:35 AM
Didn't we have this same conversation a year ago? What is different this time? Well, other than we are pretty sure Hendriks is a AAAA pitcher?

Blackjack
09-18-2013, 08:42 AM
When was the last time that Terry Ryan and the Twins signed a big buck free agent pitcher??? Itís not going to happen. He'll continue to bottom feed, sign an 'inning eater' and maybe a reclamation project, but he won't sign a high priced pitcher until the rest of the team is competitive in a couple of years and that high priced pitcher will push them over the top ala Jack Morris.

I don't think the Twins see the urgency to spend big bucks on a pitcher in order to appease the fan base; they're counting on the all-star game and the arrival of stud prospects Sano and Buxton to keep fans interested.

Starting rotation next year will be a combination of Correia, Gibson, Diamond, bargain basement signee - with Worley, Hendricks, Hernandez, and other similar pitchers fighting it out for the last spot.

ThePuck
09-18-2013, 08:48 AM
When was the last time that Terry Ryan and the Twins signed a big buck free agent pitcher??? It’s not going to happen. He'll continue to bottom feed, sign an 'inning eater' and maybe a reclamation project, but he won't sign a high priced pitcher until the rest of the team is competitive in a couple of years and that high priced pitcher will push them over the top ala Jack Morris.



I don't even see him doing it then simply because he's been in that situation in the 2000s a couple times and didn't do it. I understand the argument about him not having the same resources back then, but I think there's more to it than that.

old nurse
09-18-2013, 08:49 AM
I have sincere doubts that Bard and Chargois are ever reaching the majors.

Chargois will be 23 when he comes back from TJ. He had a good first year. There is plenty of time for him to develop. Recovery rate was 90%. The procedure itself is not likely career ending.
Maybe Bard is brittle, don't know. Neither has a body of work that would say one way or another that they are misses.

Ervin Santana will either sign with KC, or get a 4 year contract. Hughes, it depends on who is interested in him. The enticement to get him might require 3 years.
Johan might retire rather than start over at the bottom with a minimal deal. If it is a competition/center stage kind of thing he would have to have howie's well documented belief in the prospects (and get to lead the parade) to sign here.

Oldgoat_MN
09-18-2013, 09:41 AM
1. I believe that the Twins really will sign a pitcher this year that causes us to raise our eyebrows. In a good way.
2. Why do people keep listing Matt Garza as a possible Twins pitcher? One of the most frustrating things about the coming off-season is this very bad idea. Nothing good could come of this.
3. Sure would be fun to see the Twins get Tanaka. Does anyone know when that all plays out?

Boom Boom
09-18-2013, 09:49 AM
Souhan could have written this article in September of 2011 or 2012, dragged it out of mothballs, changed the date and a few relevant player names, and reposted it.

nicksaviking
09-18-2013, 10:27 AM
Johan might retire rather than start over at the bottom with a minimal deal. If it is a competition/center stage kind of thing he would have to have howie's well documented belief in the prospects (and get to lead the parade) to sign here.

I agree with your take on years for Ervin Santana and Hughes and I also think Chargois still has a decent shot.

However, I don't think Johan Santana would have actually had the surgery if he wasn't going to attempt a comeback. I'd still be interested in him as the 2014 Zumaya/Harden flier.

Siehbiscuit
09-18-2013, 10:41 AM
Ervin Santana (5year 75Million) may get the biggest deal of any FA pitcher. Garza has lost himself a lot of money with his performance this year. Garza wouldn't even consider coming back to MN.

I would love to see the Twins splurge in FA this year, but it won't happen. I agree that Gibson (#2), Correia (#3) will be automatically be given rotation spots. I would love to see a bounce back from Worley (#4) as well. The last two would go to Albers or Diamond (#5). I would most like to see the Twins spend big on Ubaldo Jimenez. Market will likely be around 4-5 years and a 48-60 Million deal. I think the Twins need to 5 years and 65 to land him. He has the most upside of any FA pitcher and knows the central division. Kazmir on a 2 year deal possibly (injury history).

Offensively, Mike Napoli at 1B on a 2yr/$28m deal. He will handle 1B and also do some DH'ing. Shin-Soo Choo as our CF and leadoff hitter for 5 years and $75 million. He will slide to a corner spot and bat in the two hole once Buxton arrives. That's $42 in three players that substantially upgrades our offense provides a potential front line starter.

howieramone
09-18-2013, 12:23 PM
Ervin Santana (5year 75Million) may get the biggest deal of any FA pitcher. Garza has lost himself a lot of money with his performance this year. Garza wouldn't even consider coming back to MN.

I would love to see the Twins splurge in FA this year, but it won't happen. I agree that Gibson (#2), Correia (#3) will be automatically be given rotation spots. I would love to see a bounce back from Worley (#4) as well. The last two would go to Albers or Diamond (#5). I would most like to see the Twins spend big on Ubaldo Jimenez. Market will likely be around 4-5 years and a 48-60 Million deal. I think the Twins need to 5 years and 65 to land him. He has the most upside of any FA pitcher and knows the central division. Kazmir on a 2 year deal possibly (injury history).

Offensively, Mike Napoli at 1B on a 2yr/$28m deal. He will handle 1B and also do some DH'ing. Shin-Soo Choo as our CF and leadoff hitter for 5 years and $75 million. He will slide to a corner spot and bat in the two hole once Buxton arrives. That's $42 in three players that substantially upgrades our offense provides a potential front line starter.

Like your ideas, but can't see spending money on an outfielder. Arcia, Buxton, Hicks, and Presly will be more than adequate. Spend the money on starting pitchers.

jm3319
09-18-2013, 01:29 PM
Souhan could have written this article in September of 2011 or 2012, dragged it out of mothballs, changed the date and a few relevant player names, and reposted it.

The same could be said for like 10-20% of the articles posted at TD. "What went wrong this year" "What to do this offseason after a terrible season" "When's the right time to move Mauer to first?" "Fire Gardy" "Time for a new front office" "Why is payroll shrinking" "Plouffe is really frustrating"

Plenty of recurring themes when the team is awful and doesn't appear to be doing much about it, sadly.

Willihammer
09-18-2013, 01:52 PM
The same could be said for like 10-20% of the articles posted at TD. "What went wrong this year" "What to do this offseason after a terrible season" "When's the right time to move Mauer to first?" "Fire Gardy" "Time for a new front office" "Why is payroll shrinking" "Plouffe is really frustrating"

Its almost as if we're either on something or onto something here

lyndon
09-20-2013, 04:17 PM
When I first saw the title of the article I thought, DARN right they should pay. Look at what they've done! Punish them! Then I realized that it was referring to money. HAHA

Shane Wahl
09-20-2013, 06:21 PM
MLB Trade Rumors expects 3/39 for Jimenez, 2/24 for Arroyo, and 2/17 for Feldman. 5/65 for Jimenez seems to be pretty out there . . .

old nurse
09-20-2013, 08:02 PM
MLB Trade Rumors expects 3/39 for Jimenez, 2/24 for Arroyo, and 2/17 for Feldman. 5/65 for Jimenez seems to be pretty out there . . .
Before making predictions you should have all of the data. Jimenez has been impressive after a rough start to the season. If Cleveland makes the playoffs and Jimenez carries them to the championship series performing at a high level somebody is going to give him a qualifying offer and somebody probably will plunk down a 5/65.

cmb0252
09-20-2013, 08:16 PM
Before making predictions you should have all of the data. Jimenez has been impressive after a rough start to the season. If Cleveland makes the playoffs and Jimenez carries them to the championship series performing at a high level somebody is going to give him a qualifying offer and somebody probably will plunk down a 5/65.

Can a player who turns down a player option get a qualified offer? I have no idea. If not, while I still can't see him getting 5/56, I could see him getting more than mlbtraderumors guess. With the new draft rules teams will pay a little extra not to lose a pick.

jorgenswest
09-20-2013, 08:57 PM
He will certainly get a qualifying offer which he may accept. He would be gambling on having a second strong season by accepting and larger contract in free agency.

The Twins will have to beat the market by offering more years or dollars. I would prefer they increase the dollars perhaps to 48 for 3 years. I can't see him retaining his velocity for four more years (or even 3), but I hope they can get two good years and have him at the back of the rotation in year 3.

All pitchers are a risky proposition as they age. In Ubaldo's case even riskier with his poor pitching the previous two years and lack of control to balance any loss in velocity.

Shane Wahl
09-21-2013, 11:02 AM
Kazmir MLBTR estimate 2/16.

Alex
09-21-2013, 06:03 PM
Like your ideas, but can't see spending money on an outfielder. Arcia, Buxton, Hicks, and Presly will be more than adequate. Spend the money on starting pitchers.

I agree on the starting pitching, but Buxton won't be up to start the season. Pressley may be better as a fourth outfielder and Hicks, well, doesn't looks like he deserves to be penciled in next year until he proves he's ready. Hammer looks like he'll be a DH. So, if they can get a cheap slugging OF and don't see value in SP I'd have no problem with them spending some money there.

Kwak
09-21-2013, 06:35 PM
I agree on the starting pitching, but Buxton won't be up to start the season. Pressley may be better as a fourth outfielder and Hicks, well, doesn't looks like he deserves to be penciled in next year until he proves he's ready. Hammer looks like he'll be a DH. So, if they can get a cheap slugging OF and don't see value in SP I'd have no problem with them spending some money there.

Absolutely! There is no justification for claiming an OF with Arcia, (Buxton in 12 months at the earliest), Hicks, Presly, and (maybe) Willingham will be anything but below average next year. The Twins need someone who can hit and play satisfactory defense. Delmon II in the OF doesn't work! Presley is a back-up, Hicks is a -up, and Willingham can't play defense and (hopefully) will be gone by August '14.

howieramone
09-21-2013, 06:52 PM
I agree on the starting pitching, but Buxton won't be up to start the season. Pressley may be better as a fourth outfielder and Hicks, well, doesn't looks like he deserves to be penciled in next year until he proves he's ready. Hammer looks like he'll be a DH. So, if they can get a cheap slugging OF and don't see value in SP I'd have no problem with them spending some money there.The task this winter is to add 2 starting pitchers better than Corriea and Gibson. This should be doable. If the task were to add 2 front end starters, when there may only be 50-60 1's and 2's in all of baseball, the task gets much more difficult. But, I wouldn't be surprised if he added another piece somewhere else. A lot of other teams are in the heavy rebuild mode, so I'm guessing this winter will be fairly active.

howieramone
09-21-2013, 07:04 PM
Absolutely! There is no justification for claiming an OF with Arcia, (Buxton in 12 months at the earliest), Hicks, Presly, and (maybe) Willingham will be anything but below average next year. The Twins need someone who can hit and play satisfactory defense. Delmon II in the OF doesn't work! Presley is a back-up, Hicks is a -up, and Willingham can't play defense and (hopefully) will be gone by August '14.

I don't believe too many people are losing sleep knowing Arcia, Buxton, Hicks, Presly, and possibly even Rosario will be maning the outfield in the not too distant future. The Twins have suitable odd and ends, or if need be can find others until the permanent solution arrives, sooner rather than later.

ThePuck
09-21-2013, 09:30 PM
I wanna make sure I get the sentiment some seem to have. We've had a team that's gonna have three consecutive seasons of losing 90 or more games...and it's nobody's fault? Not ownerships fault, not the GM, not the field manager, not scouting, not developing?

Are we to believe the GM did the best he could to put a competitor out there, and it just didn't work out? If so, why didn't it? Is it because the manager couldn't get these pieces to work? No? Why isn't it that? If it's not that, is it because we want to say he couldn't do it with so little talent? And if that's why we can't blame him because he had so little talent to work with, doesn't it go back to the person responsible for talent on the club again?

This ship just went off course and continues to stay off course just out of the blue and for no reason whatsoever? No one is to blame? From 94 wins to the carper for three seasons straight with a another season (at least) likely, and no one is to blame.

BTW, people keep saying we are rebuilding. What are we doing that other teams, who aren't in rebuilding mode, AREN'T doing? We're drafting...everyone drafts. We're signing international talent, so is everyone else. Aren't we just waiting and praying to the Gods that a seriously higher than normal percentage of our prospects end up above average of better? We did the two trades...the Span and Revere ones...but besides that, what exactly are we doing differently from teams that retool or are right in the thick of things?

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-22-2013, 07:31 PM
Priority #1 is grabbing Tanaka. I'd lock up Kazmir to a 2 year deal in addition and take a flyer on Phil Hughes for a year+option. 3 pitchers who have some good upside for us. Upside is what we need because we have none.

old nurse
09-22-2013, 09:27 PM
I wanna make sure I get the sentiment some seem to have. We've had a team that's gonna have three consecutive seasons of losing 90 or more games...and it's nobody's fault? Not ownerships fault, not the GM, not the field manager, not scouting, not developing?

Are we to believe the GM did the best he could to put a competitor out there, and it just didn't work out? If so, why didn't it? Is it because the manager couldn't get these pieces to work? No? Why isn't it that? If it's not that, is it because we want to say he couldn't do it with so little talent? And if that's why we can't blame him because he had so little talent to work with, doesn't it go back to the person responsible for talent on the club again?

This ship just went off course and continues to stay off course just out of the blue and for no reason whatsoever? No one is to blame? From 94 wins to the carper for three seasons straight with a another season (at least) likely, and no one is to blame.

BTW, people keep saying we are rebuilding. What are we doing that other teams, who aren't in rebuilding mode, AREN'T doing? We're drafting...everyone drafts. We're signing international talent, so is everyone else. Aren't we just waiting and praying to the Gods that a seriously higher than normal percentage of our prospects end up above average of better? We did the two trades...the Span and Revere ones...but besides that, what exactly are we doing differently from teams that retool or are right in the thick of things?

No, there is no one person.
The owner runs the team like a business.
The scouting department had not found enough talent. Maybe they made bad choices, maybe the one who had the right talent pegged didn't argue hard enough.
The development people did not develop the talent they had to something better than what the talent could be.
The GM made poor trades, did not sign the right free agents, did not pick up even slightly better marginal talent when it was available.
Even the fans are to blame. When the team was winning in the dome, it still had plenty of capacity for more fans. Plenty of blame to go around, just not one person to hang in effigy.

mike wants wins
09-22-2013, 09:30 PM
So much for a culture of accountability......

ThePuck
09-22-2013, 09:42 PM
So much for a culture of accountability......

It's everyone's fault so it's no one's person's fault and so everyone gets defended...as if they weren't even part of the problem...and it continues.

old nurse
09-23-2013, 07:44 AM
It's everyone's fault so it's no one's person's fault and so everyone gets defended...as if they weren't even part of the problem...and it continues.

There is a different scouting director.
Although some may not believe there ever was a change, there has been a change in GM.
I do not know if the scouts are different, I don't keep track of that stuff.
Some posts are not so much a defense of someone as it is a counterpoint to something posted that one thinks very little of. There is a difference.

JB_Iowa
09-23-2013, 08:50 AM
It's funny (or not). I keep going back to October 2010 and the belief I had that the Twins needed to start making some changes so that they could compete in the post-season.

I was ready for them to do some re-tooling and had faith that they knew what they needed to do. It's the reason I wasn't upset about Hardy/Nishi -- I had blind faith that the front office and field staff knew what changes needed to be made to try to propel this team to the next level.

And I remember discussions about contracts coming off the books and monies that might be available to improve the starting pitching.

In some ways, it is hard for me to even comprehend how the team went from that point in October 2010 to where they are now. Injuries, bad luck, bad judgment, staleness, budget cuts and more have all played a part in the decline. It's just hard to understand how it could all get so bad -- and stay so bad -- so quickly. This decline was not like walking downhill. It was more like jumping off a cliff.

I wish I had the faith that some posters have that the prospects will really turn this mess around but my trust level has been steadily decimated over the past few years. The Twins need to rebuild not only the team but the confidence of their fans (and former fans).

ThePuck
09-23-2013, 09:04 AM
There is a different scouting director.
Although some may not believe there ever was a change, there has been a change in GM.
I do not know if the scouts are different, I don't keep track of that stuff.
Some posts are not so much a defense of someone as it is a counterpoint to something posted that one thinks very little of. There is a difference.

We've had the same scouting director since 2007. Yes, there's been a change in GM...but it's not as if Ryan isn't responsible for some of problems we've seen from 2011 till now in the way of talent, or lack thereof...dating back to before he left the first time...

gil4
09-23-2013, 11:31 AM
Downfall of the team losing Hunter. Botched Santana trade, all on Ryan.

I thought Smith made the Santana trade.

ThePuck
09-23-2013, 11:39 AM
I thought Smith made the Santana trade.

necessitated by Ryan not nailing Santana down earlier...

USAFChief
09-23-2013, 11:41 AM
Lets keep the posts on topic, rather than other posters.

ThePuck
09-23-2013, 11:42 AM
And the blame game continues on. The team Ryan left won 269 games in the 3 years after he left. The major league talent was there. There were situations left unfinished. It is not unreasonable to have that. The lack of minor league talent was dealt with. Improving minor league systems, as much as some would expect it to do, does not happen overnight. Problems Ryan left with. 2 failed draft picks for Hunter were all Ryan's fault. No one saw the offer the Angels put forth coming in that high. Hindsight makes an easy rip. Downfall of the team losing Hunter. Botched Santana trade, all on Ryan. You are going to think whatever you want. It is not defending Ryan as much as it is what you post is inaccurate

The 'hindsight' on the Hunter thing isn't hindsight at all...when Hunter was pushing for a new deal prior to 2007, it should have gotten done instead of Ryan ignoring Hunter's requests for a new deal. That's the rip on the Hunter situation...he should have been signed before ever becoming a FA...before the 2007 season ever happened.

The first offer made to Hunter was after the Castillo trade...the trade that ticked off Santana and Hunter...the trade that sealed off any real chance to keep either one.

And the talent Ryan left the major league level when he left isn't in question, but the poor farm system he left that would need to be tapped into in the future certainly is.

nicksaviking
09-23-2013, 12:58 PM
No, there is no one person.
The owner runs the team like a business.
The scouting department had not found enough talent. Maybe they made bad choices, maybe the one who had the right talent pegged didn't argue hard enough.
The development people did not develop the talent they had to something better than what the talent could be.
The GM made poor trades, did not sign the right free agents, did not pick up even slightly better marginal talent when it was available.
Even the fans are to blame. When the team was winning in the dome, it still had plenty of capacity for more fans. Plenty of blame to go around, just not one person to hang in effigy.


So much for a culture of accountability......


It's everyone's fault so it's no one's person's fault and so everyone gets defended...as if they weren't even part of the problem...and it continues.

I don't think you guys are as far apart as you might think. I agree with nurse that there is plenty of blame to go around. However I don't think that just because one person can't be saddled with all the blame that everybody gets away with it.

In the judicial system that's why they have a charge of accessory. Five guys don't get to all stand around a dead body each pointing a finger at the guy next to them and walk away free. They were all there, they were all involved so everyone is getting cuffed.

I know it's callous but that's why I want an entire regime change. If we cannot be sure who is most culpable, it's time to hedge our bets and just start over.

ThePuck
09-23-2013, 01:14 PM
I don't think you guys are as far apart as you might think. I agree with nurse that there is plenty of blame to go around. However I don't think that just because one person can't be saddled with all the blame that everybody gets away with it.

In the judicial system that's why they have a charge of accessory. Five guys don't get to all stand around a dead body each pointing a finger at the guy next to them and walk away free. They were all there, they were all involved so everyone is getting cuffed.

I know it's callous but that's why I want an entire regime change. If we cannot be sure who is most culpable, it's time to hedge our bets and just start over.

If you go back and read post 36, it might clear up what I'm saying.