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Coach J
09-17-2013, 11:47 AM
Is anyone else concerned by the fact the Arcia has really came back down to earth after his first go around in the majors? He seems like he really has a tough time against a good fastball and that down and in breaking ball. As we have seen with numerous Twins hitters, big league pitchers are really good at finding holes in swings. Wondered about the confidence level Twins territory has in Arcia to hit major league pitching. Lets hear a prediction on his numbers going forward in the coming years.

howieramone
09-17-2013, 11:55 AM
To me the most important number is he made it to Target Field at 22. I see 25 HR's and .280 BA. Also, I have no doubt he will be no worse that average defensively. I've read 2 or 3 scouting reports and there is no hint he's Hammerlike.

Kwak
09-17-2013, 11:56 AM
About two months ago I thought Arcia was a White Sox OF in a Twins uniform. I still think that way. I don't see a big future for Arcia.

Winston Smith
09-17-2013, 12:25 PM
David Ortiz light. No real good position, even being Ortiz light would be ok as a DH.

LaBombo
09-17-2013, 12:41 PM
To me the most important number is he made it to Target Field at 22. I see 25 HR's and .280 BA. Also, I have no doubt he will be no worse that average defensively. I've read 2 or 3 scouting reports and there is no hint he's Hammerlike.
Agree with the first part. As a fan base, we're a bit rusty at projecting what a 22 year old who sticks in the majors may turn out to be, because it hasn't happened very often. Just the fact that he's here and not overmatched is pretty cool.

But Arcia will need to improve his contact rate just to avoid seeing his batting average decline when his good luck with balls in play comes back to earth. His K rate is in Adam Dunn/Mark Reynolds territory. And if he doesn't walk more, he could turn out to be one of those guys who hits .280 with 25 homers but doesn't really do much to help the club win.

Defensively, at this point he's pretty much just an ox with a glove stuck to one horn. He looks terrible, and every defensive metric hates him with a passion. He'll probably get better due to experience alone, but barring a breakthrough it's hard to see his defense not being some shade of liability.

Willihammer
09-17-2013, 12:57 PM
I like Arcia more than any of the rookies. The pop is there - he has more home runs at TF (7) than any lefthander except Justin Morneau (9) but he's done it in 200 fewer PAs. He has the most "no doubt" home runs at TF (2). But he's only connecting on 70% of his swings. That number will go up as he gains better plate discipline, I think, and the home runs and hits will follow. I think we're looking at a .900 hitter in 2015.

Seth Stohs
09-17-2013, 01:15 PM
Zero concern. I compared him with Jason Kubel probably starting in 2010, and I think that's a realistic expectation. .280-.300, 20-30 homers. Could have a couple of seasons above those thresholds. Defense is fine, and the only reason to move him to DH is because you have a pretty strong defensive OF with Hicks, Rosario and Buxton.

Oldgoat_MN
09-17-2013, 01:40 PM
I think his minor league numbers are too good to expect him to be less than excellent.

He will be a cornerstone of the Twins future, along with our soon-to-be hotshots.

ThePuck
09-17-2013, 01:43 PM
I think his minor league numbers are too good to expect him to be less than excellent.

He will be a cornerstone of the Twins future, along with our soon-to-be hotshots.

Slowey's minor league numbers were excellent too. The list of players who have had great numbers in the minors who busted or only became okay players at the MLB level is pretty large. I believe he'll be a good player, like a Kubel, and there's nothing wrong with that.

stringer bell
09-17-2013, 01:48 PM
Arcia has a bright future if he doesn't get too concerned with hitting each pitch 500 feet. He'll probably remain (overly) aggressive for quite a while, but he has hit at every level, not so much for power as overall good numbers. We know he's strong enough to reach the seats to any part of the park, but he needs to make more contact and that means trying to hit balls where they are pitched and quit chasing so many balls out of the zone, especially with two strikes.

Marta Shearing
09-17-2013, 01:50 PM
I think he's gonna be great. My 2015 outfield is Rosario, Buxton, Hicks. Arcia is my DH.

Steve Lein
09-17-2013, 02:18 PM
As a 22-year old doing what he has done at the Major League level, he's going to be just fine. You probably won't see many (if any) All-Star game appearances, but a .280/.330/.480-ish hitter is a very good piece to have in your lineup.

But he's likely destined for DH duties as I think he's you're prototypical "average" defensive RF-er at his peak (he's not there now).

LaBombo
09-17-2013, 02:35 PM
Zero concern. I compared him with Jason Kubel probably starting in 2010, and I think that's a realistic expectation. .280-.300, 20-30 homers. Could have a couple of seasons above those thresholds.
Kubel moved through the minors just as quickly as Arcia, but with a SO% that was half that of Arcia's.

Setting that aside, let's say he turns out to be pretty much Jason Kubel, maybe with a bit lower average and a bit more power, or maybe not, but pretty much the same net offensive value. Here's the problem with that.

Jason Kubel wasn't very good.

Like several other Twins hitters, he had a career year in 2009, putting up an impressive 135 OPS+. But other than that, he posted OPS+'s of 110, 115, 105, and 110 in his 4 other full seasons for the Twins.

Throw defense into the mix with WAR and it gets even worse. 0.4, 0.6, 2.5, -0.4, and 0.7. Ouch.

So unless Arcia is Kubel 2009 instead of just Kubel, he'll be a disappointment after his rapid advancement through the minors. I'm hoping for the '09 version. Either way, he'll be fun to watch.

Marta Shearing
09-17-2013, 02:40 PM
Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.

LaBombo
09-17-2013, 03:06 PM
Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.
Not sure about his approach or conditioning changing, but he definitely wasn't the same player after the injury, especially defensively. But it's still early enough for Arcia that we really don't know what to expect.

adjacent
09-17-2013, 04:04 PM
Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.
Oh, my! Give a lot of mediocrity like Kubel's over what we have to watch on the field these days. Coming back to the topic, I think Arcia will be fine. He'll learn a little bit more discipline, more patience, and will give some power in the middle of the ine up for years to come.

Shane Wahl
09-17-2013, 04:36 PM
I absolutely hope and think Arcia will be better than Kubel. Kubel was great in 2009, good in 2012 for Arizona, and then merely above average or average the rest of his career. There is no disputing that. That wouldn't be acceptable for Arcia. I think averaging .285 with 25-28 homers for several years is a reasonable guess. That's good.

ThePuck
09-17-2013, 04:39 PM
Fun fact: Cuddyer and Kubel had the exact same OPS as Twins. That being .794. That would be good for 19th in MLB this year for OFs and 9th for MLB RFs.

..and Kubels OPS+ as a Twin was 1 point higher than Cuddy's.

I think people under-valued Kubel in relation to Cuddy for the same reason many undervalued Span's defense in relation to Revere's defense...personality.

big dog
09-17-2013, 05:03 PM
I predicted in a game thread last week that Arcia would absolutely destroy the Twins' single-season record for strikeouts some year soon. It's 145, by Bobby Darwin (closely challenged by Carlos Gomez, 142, and Willingham, 142 last year). He might break it in August.

145 is a pretty low total for an all-time team record, though. A dozen guys have already exceeded that this year alone, led by Chris Carter with 199 K's so far. Adam Dunn has been at 165 or higher for all 11 years he's played a full season.

I'm with others, .280 with 20+ homers. I hope his strikeouts don't hit Dunn levels, though- that would make .280 a lot tougher. I haven't been very impressed with his defense so far. I hope he gets more comfortable out there.

Evan Longoria has as many strikeouts now as Mark Reynolds (though with 150 more ABs). I could live with Arcia at Longoria's level!

Kwak
09-17-2013, 05:52 PM
Koneko's first AB last night illustrates the difference between a professional power hitter and the Twins hitters. Konerko attacked pitches up and over the plate, but layed-off those on the fringe--until he had 2 strikes. He kept his weight and hands back, and "reduced his swing" so that he was ready for anything low and away. If a FB (which he hit) he punched it into RF for a single. The same approach would have taken a breaking-ball up, to CF, yet allow him to "hold-up" on a breaking ball down. Arcia (and most other Twins hitters) just grip-it-and-rip-it on any count, including with two strikes. Hence, the Twins are striking-out at an alarming rate to try to hit HRs. Sadly, the Twins are only averaging a bit less than one/game, with way too many games with multiple HRs meaning a real dearth in other games. I like HRs too--and the Twins do need their share--but they need (in this thread read Arcia) to get them by attacking early in the count and cutting his swing down with two strikes to just make decent contact rather than the HR swing which he uses all of the time. A few less HRs but a much improved BAVG and OBA.

SydneyTwinsFan
09-17-2013, 06:15 PM
Arcia will be fine. Let's not forget he's only 15 months removed from hitting at Ft Myers. I would expect .280/.350/.450 with 20 HR as a minimum by 2015, with the potential to be better than that.

clutterheart
09-17-2013, 06:32 PM
He has always struck out too much and he has to learn how to be more selective.
I don't think he will ever be an MVP but he will look good in a line up consisting of Button & Sano

Monkeypaws
09-17-2013, 06:39 PM
The wild whiffing is a concern to me. I'd like to see him take it down a notch and go for more contact; his natural power would kick in and he'd still hit plenty of homers.

stringer bell
09-17-2013, 06:56 PM
Arcia hit 53 homers in over 1500 plate appearances, about one every 30 PAs, going into this year. He struck out 289 times, less than once every five PAs. This year for the Twins, he has struck out 105 times in 347 PAs. It looks to me like he is looking to launch every pitch. I like that the Twins are hitting more homers vis a vis their opponents, but if the cost is becoming strikeout machines with a small increase in long balls, maybe that isn't a transaction worth making.

howieramone
09-17-2013, 07:01 PM
Koneko's first AB last night illustrates the difference between a professional power hitter and the Twins hitters. Konerko attacked pitches up and over the plate, but layed-off those on the fringe--until he had 2 strikes. He kept his weight and hands back, and "reduced his swing" so that he was ready for anything low and away. If a FB (which he hit) he punched it into RF for a single. The same approach would have taken a breaking-ball up, to CF, yet allow him to "hold-up" on a breaking ball down. Arcia (and most other Twins hitters) just grip-it-and-rip-it on any count, including with two strikes. Hence, the Twins are striking-out at an alarming rate to try to hit HRs. Sadly, the Twins are only averaging a bit less than one/game, with way too many games with multiple HRs meaning a real dearth in other games. I like HRs too--and the Twins do need their share--but they need (in this thread read Arcia) to get them by attacking early in the count and cutting his swing down with two strikes to just make decent contact rather than the HR swing which he uses all of the time. A few less HRs but a much improved BAVG and OBA. Konerko is a good example. He was one of the top prospects in all of baseball when the Dodgers gave up on him at the same age as Arcia. He was then traded twice in 6 months before finding a home with the White Sox. The Twins have always shown a lot of patience with their top prospects.

TheLeviathan
09-17-2013, 08:01 PM
I predict he'll continue to develop into a legitimate middle of the order bat. I also predict his god-awful defense will rightly relegate him to DH most of the time.

nicksaviking
09-17-2013, 08:42 PM
Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.

I think people expect too much of the team's prospects. Getting average production from a non-elite prospect is a pretty solid expectation. That being said, Arcia has the tools to be a pretty good player. His 30% K rate is very troubling. It is quite odd though considering his career minor league K rate was less than 20%. Even if his triple slash line were not to improve much, I think it's more than likely his K rate will decrease.

On a possibly unrelated topic, I worry about what kind of effect all the losing may have on the young players. There certainly has to be a pall over the club's veterans who are playing for a 2014 roster spot instead of a trophy and an almost certainly despondanct managerial staff who may view every defeat as a nail in the coffin of their carreers. Is it possible a rookie may not even enjoy his first taste of the big leagues if there is a negative enough cloud hanging over the clubhouse?

I don't blame Gardenhire but I want a change for 2014 soley because I think it is a naturally occuring phenomenon that negativity is contageous, and I think it's very difficult to scrub off of a manager. The stink may not be comming from Gardy, but by now it surely is in his clothes.

howieramone
09-17-2013, 11:09 PM
I think people expect too much of the team's prospects. Getting average production from a non-elite prospect is a pretty solid expectation. That being said, Arcia has the tools to be a pretty good player. His 30% K rate is very troubling. It is quite odd though considering his career minor league K rate was less than 20%. Even if his triple slash line were not to improve much, I think it's more than likely his K rate will decrease.

On a possibly unrelated topic, I worry about what kind of effect all the losing may have on the young players. There certainly has to be a pall over the club's veterans who are playing for a 2014 roster spot instead of a trophy and an almost certainly despondanct managerial staff who may view every defeat as a nail in the coffin of their carreers. Is it possible a rookie may not even enjoy his first taste of the big leagues if there is a negative enough cloud hanging over the clubhouse?

I don't blame Gardenhire but I want a change for 2014 soley because I think it is a naturally occuring phenomenon that negativity is contageous, and I think it's very difficult to scrub off of a manager. The stink may not be comming from Gardy, but by now it surely is in his clothes.

I don't share your concerns. By the time a player gets to play for money, they have already experienced losing at some point along the way. Also, it's easy to forget many of our International players grew up surrounded by a different type of losing.

jokin
09-18-2013, 12:04 AM
I don't share your concerns. By the time a player gets to play for money, they have already experienced losing at some point along the way. Also, it's easy to forget many of our International players grew up surrounded by a different type of losing.

Once a "culture" has been established, and I think 3 years now, means it's pretty firmly established, makes it's very difficult to change an object in motion- the Law of Inertia and all....sorry, nicksaviking is right, new leaders in managerial roles as well as player roles are sorely needed to break the bonds with the recent past.

And I don't get the part about "International losing being a different type of losing", in my book, that's certainly not a good reason for "celebrating diversity".

nicksaviking
09-18-2013, 09:23 AM
I don't share your concerns. By the time a player gets to play for money, they have already experienced losing at some point along the way. Also, it's easy to forget many of our International players grew up surrounded by a different type of losing.

It's not the losing that is the problem, it's what inevitably results from an extended period of losing in a group dynamic that is concerning. If present, the sense of negativity, desperation, resignation and futility is that I want the younger players removed from.

Thegrin
09-18-2013, 09:53 AM
Arcia does what he knows. "See the ball. Hit the ball." With time and experience he will become Delmon Young or Jason Kubel. Lets hope he is traded for a good pitcher before he becomes Delmon Young.

matthew0211
09-18-2013, 11:09 AM
I also predict his god-awful defense will rightly relegate him to DH most of the time.

Unless Gardy stops shifting him between positions all the time, it will be awhile before we know about his defense. Last night he was in RF, today it's LF again. Give him one position and let him get comfortable there, and he'll probably be fine.

TheLeviathan
09-18-2013, 11:33 AM
Unless Gardy stops shifting him between positions all the time, it will be awhile before we know about his defense. Last night he was in RF, today it's LF again. Give him one position and let him get comfortable there, and he'll probably be fine.

I have a rule that I think pretty well when it comes to defense. Bad defensive players and great defensive players are easy to spot. Their skills (or complete lack of them) don't take a lot of analysis to see.

Arcia, from everything I've seen, is a bad defensive player. He looks like Delmon Young out there in how he takes routes and approaches fly balls. Some guys just aren't naturals and I (and this is just my opinion) can see that already with him.

Doesn't take anything away from how big of an impact player I believe he will be, however.

jokin
09-18-2013, 06:45 PM
I have a rule that I think pretty well when it comes to defense. Bad defensive players and great defensive players are easy to spot.

1)Their skills (or complete lack of them) don't take a lot of analysis to see.

Arcia, from everything I've seen, is a bad defensive player. He looks like Delmon Young out there in how he takes routes and approaches fly balls.
2)Some guys just aren't naturals and I (and this is just my opinion) can see that already with him.

3)Doesn't take anything away from how big of an impact player I believe he will be, however.




3 great points with which I generally concur in the case of Oswaldo.

There are guys who work very hard at their weakness on defense and become very proficient, Corey Koskie comes to mind, but those are few and far between. The best to realisitically hope for with Aricia is that he becomes serviceable enough in the OF to make his bat a big plus.

USAFChief
09-18-2013, 07:29 PM
Arica has only around 800 PAs above A ball. He's 22 yrs old. He's hit everywhere, I think there's a good chance he acclimates to the majors and hits well there, too. Kubel is a pretty decent comp.

And I don't give much consideration to corner OF defense. It just isn't worth worrying about. Lets see what he looks like as a hitter by this time in 2015.

TheLeviathan
09-18-2013, 07:59 PM
And I don't give much consideration to corner OF defense. It just isn't worth worrying about. Lets see what he looks like as a hitter by this time in 2015.

A fair point. But if you have a spot (and the Twins look to have an open DH spot long term) - I think we'll have far, far better fielders to throw out there long term. Frankly, I think Kubel is/was a superior fielder to Arcia.

Kwak
09-18-2013, 08:20 PM
A fair point. But if you have a spot (and the Twins look to have an open DH spot long term) - I think we'll have far, far better fielders to throw out there long term. Frankly, I think Kubel is/was a superior fielder to Arcia.

There are potentially several candidates for that DH spot--including Mauer. If Arcia doesn't become a ++ hitter, he's got to play a position or be traded. Evaluating Arcia from (ceiling) Kubel to (floor) Delmon Young (with which I agree) causes me to conclude the Twins should be including him in a bundle for quality starting pitching. One thing that must change in the Twins organization is satisfaction wih C+ players. They arent what was hoped for in the draft, they get expensive after in the arbitration years and obscure the need for a better player at his position.

howieramone
09-18-2013, 09:14 PM
There are potentially several candidates for that DH spot--including Mauer. If Arcia doesn't become a ++ hitter, he's got to play a position or be traded. Evaluating Arcia from (ceiling) Kubel to (floor) Delmon Young (with which I agree) causes me to conclude the Twins should be including him in a bundle for quality starting pitching. One thing that must change in the Twins organization is satisfaction wih C+ players. They arent what was hoped for in the draft, they get expensive after in the arbitration years and obscure the need for a better player at his position. I think the thing to remember is the Twins grade their own players. Recents examples were Stewart was the consensus #4 pick, yet it came out after the draft the Twins had him at #2. Internationally Diaz was 10-14, yet the Twins reportedly signed him for $400,000 more than anyone else offered and had followed him for 2 years, just as they had Stewart. It's good fun to evaluate players on the board, but if you expect the Twins to go by these evaluations, most times you will be disappointed. I do agree he is not one of the untouchables.

TheLeviathan
09-18-2013, 09:34 PM
There are potentially several candidates for that DH spot--including Mauer. If Arcia doesn't become a ++ hitter, he's got to play a position or be traded. Evaluating Arcia from (ceiling) Kubel to (floor) Delmon Young (with which I agree) causes me to conclude the Twins should be including him in a bundle for quality starting pitching. One thing that must change in the Twins organization is satisfaction wih C+ players. They arent what was hoped for in the draft, they get expensive after in the arbitration years and obscure the need for a better player at his position.

I tend to agree. For example, I'd sooner consider trading him than Rosario. But the truth is, this team's best chance to contend will still be with Mauer at catcher for the bulk of his at-bats. I'm not opposed to Arcia being in the outfield, I just expect Delmon Young-like defense out of him.

I, for one, am quite happy to be done with that. Even if Willingham is only marginally better.

USAFChief
09-18-2013, 09:42 PM
A fair point. But if you have a spot (and the Twins look to have an open DH spot long term) - I think we'll have far, far better fielders to throw out there long term. Frankly, I think Kubel is/was a superior fielder to Arcia.
If the Twins end up with 3 OFers who can both hit as well, and play better defense, great. In that case let him get the bulk of his ABs as a DH.

But IMO its not worth sacrificing offense for defense at corner OF, and I would be reluctant to relegate a 20-something yr old to DH before being forced into it.

old nurse
09-18-2013, 11:00 PM
A left fielder averages less than 2 PO/game. Poorly hit balls tend to go to RF from a right handed bat. The liability of having a below average fielder in left isn't going to hurt the team if they are an above average bat. Leave him in left unless he develops a physique like Fielder.

jokin
09-19-2013, 12:41 AM
A left fielder averages less than 2 PO/game. Poorly hit balls tend to go to RF from a right handed bat. The liability of having a below average fielder in left isn't going to hurt the team if they are an above average bat. Leave him in left unless he develops a physique like Fielder.

What's true for RH, is also true for LH. What's more important is the number of chances for a corner OF and the obvious need for a better arm in RF. Both LF and RF end up being virtually identical in the number of chances, which is just a shade under 4/game (close to 3.9/gm.). Once Buxton is in CF, the zone the LF will be responsible for will shrink significantly, it's definitely the position where Arcia will do the least damage.

Shane Wahl
09-19-2013, 12:53 AM
Dear G-O-D. If this team has Willingham to open 2014 blocking Arcia, this team has other problems. Those two can no longer be on the same roster. The guy gone is obvious. In 2014 I couldn't care less about who mans LF or RF pre-Buxton's involvement. Parmelee should probably learn to play LF so Arcia can be in RF. Or instead of Parm there is Herrmann.

The real issue is past 2014 into 2015. It has now become apparent that given the sudden dearth of OF prospects who are really ready, that an OF of ROSARIO, Buxton, and Hicks might be in order for 2015 (If Dozier moves to SS, moot point).

Arcia down the road is going to have other players to contend with at the DH spot anyway. Give HIM TIME to learn LF or RF more properly. There is no damn hurry.

TheLeviathan
09-19-2013, 07:30 AM
Arcia down the road is going to have other players to contend with at the DH spot anyway. Give HIM TIME to learn LF or RF more properly. There is no damn hurry.

I don't think you can just learn to be less clumsy and awkward fielding. I have no problem continuing to run him out there now, but to the point of the thread about predicting the future....I hope once more talent arrives it pushes him to a position morebefitting his skillset.

stringer bell
09-19-2013, 09:31 AM
You can learn a lot about playing outfield. The biggest thing is to be able to focus--as a rookie Brian Dozier couldn't focus on defense, as a second-year guy, he has been great--playing the wall properly and taking good routes to balls takes practice and I don't think Arcia has worked enough at that yet. He has enough range and arm right now to be a better than adequate outfielder. The rest can be improved on, and if he wants to be a good all-around player, he can improve.

Kwak
09-19-2013, 12:21 PM
"Brian Dozier...--playing the wall properly and taking good routes..."

What wall? Routes?

Shane Wahl
09-19-2013, 12:34 PM
Doesn't jumping rope help reduce clumsiness? I read that somewhere on the internets. Maybe we should see Oswaldo jumping rope between innings.

I'm only half-joking here.

Shane Wahl
09-19-2013, 12:35 PM
Also, anyone see extended Arcia time in the OF in the minors? Is it the SAME as what we are seeing with the Twins? If so, then it is probably fairly doomed. If not, then there is hope.

Shane Wahl
09-19-2013, 12:37 PM
Also, Chris Parmelee is a better OF defender than one might expect, at least with respect to not being clumsy and awkward. Can the Twins just start converting potential non-MLB material players to extra coaches so Parm can get Arcia to not be so Delmonesque out there?

Bill
09-19-2013, 01:02 PM
Arcia is batting .142 with 1 homer and 108 strikeouts when hitting with two strikes. If he would just dial his swing back a little bit with two strikes and keep his approach the same as it currently is whenever there are fewer than two strikes, then there would be a marked overall improvement.

Shane Wahl
09-19-2013, 01:27 PM
Arcia is batting .142 with 1 homer and 108 strikeouts when hitting with two strikes. If he would just dial his swing back a little bit with two strikes and keep his approach the same as it currently is whenever there are fewer than two strikes, then there would be a marked overall improvement.

Cue the need for Brian Harper as assistant hitting coach.

spycake
09-20-2013, 06:12 AM
Arcia is batting .142 with 1 homer and 108 strikeouts when hitting with two strikes. If he would just dial his swing back a little bit with two strikes and keep his approach the same as it currently is whenever there are fewer than two strikes, then there would be a marked overall improvement.

You do realize that, by definition, all strikeouts will come with two strikes? Unless Bugs Bunny is pitching, I suppose...

As to your suggestion, I suspect it is not that easy to change hitting approaches at MLB. I would guess that very few people or capable of doing it at that level (and they may be worse hitters overall anyway).

mike wants wins
09-20-2013, 07:42 AM
I'd still prefer Arcia at 1B/DH, with Mauer at RF/1B/DH, because defense does matter. That said, unless they actually try to win next year, I'd leave Arcia in RF and see what happens. I think he can hit the ball, I'm not sure he can field.

Bill
09-20-2013, 09:06 AM
You do realize that, by definition, all strikeouts will come with two strikes? Unless Bugs Bunny is pitching, I suppose...

As to your suggestion, I suspect it is not that easy to change hitting approaches at MLB. I would guess that very few people or capable of doing it at that level (and they may be worse hitters overall anyway).

If Bugs is pitching there is no hope...

As best as I can tell the the league hits about .180 with two strikes, so Arcia is a bad but not monumentally bad two-strike hitter when viewed through that lens.

No doubt it is hard to make changes. On the other hand, given his current results with two strikes, there does not seem to be much downside for him in trying to put greater emphasis on making contact in those situations where there are two strikes. Arcia's good outcomes seem to just about all come with fewer than two strikes. And nothing happens after two strikes because the at bat is then over.

Maybe he is already trying this and just hasn't succeeded yet. Or maybe he isn't and will come around with his current approach.

twinsfan34
09-20-2013, 10:54 AM
Two things could contribute to Arcia's decline.

1. Is it that pitchers and scouting reports have 'figured' him out?

2. Is that wrist injury still nagging him?

Looking at his AB vs. Pitchers, it doesn't look like he's had more than 6-7 ABs vs any given pitcher. Oswaldo Arcia Batter vs Pitching Stats - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/31262/oswaldo-arcia)

Then looking at his HOT/COLD zones - you find he's hitting Fastballs as most LH's do, well down low (over .300) and not so good on fastballs just above the belt.

That said, his dip has changed dramatically after the injury, strikeout range does from 28% K/AB ratio to 37% K/AB ratio while his average has dipped from .284 to .221. For background, his entire minor league K/AB rate was 21%. He hit .300+ everywhere he went. I could see him hitting .280+ 20-30 HR 80+ with 120-150 K per 500-550 AB. Is that good enough to be the Twins LF for 2014 through 2018? Probably. Would Adam Walker or JD Williams be better? Or provide better K% rates? It's hard to project as Arcia hit .300+ everywhere, neither of those guys has provided a .300+ season yet. So in the Twins system, I don't see anyone (At this time) displacing him from LF. (Assuming Rosario sticks it out at 2B). Walker has a better arm for sure. Maybe RF arm. A comment on Aaron Hicks probably might be in order here...but I digress.

It's probably too early to make a 'hasty' decision on Arcia on the offensive end.

He's at least as serviceable defensively at LF as Kubel and Delmon Young - so I think he'll be fine as a LF.

TheLeviathan
09-20-2013, 11:23 AM
Two things could contribute to Arcia's decline.

1. Is it that pitchers and scouting reports have 'figured' him out?

2. Is that wrist injury still nagging him?

Looking at his AB vs. Pitchers, it doesn't look like he's had more than 6-7 ABs vs any given pitcher. Oswaldo Arcia Batter vs Pitching Stats - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/31262/oswaldo-arcia)

Then looking at his HOT/COLD zones - you find he's hitting Fastballs as most LH's do, well down low (over .300) and not so good on fastballs just above the belt.

That said, his dip has changed dramatically after the injury, strikeout range does from 28% K/AB ratio to 37% K/AB ratio while his average has dipped from .284 to .221. For background, his entire minor league K/AB rate was 21%. He hit .300+ everywhere he went. I could see him hitting .280+ 20-30 HR 80+ with 120-150 K per 500-550 AB. Is that good enough to be the Twins LF for 2014 through 2018? Probably. Would Adam Walker or JD Williams be better? Or provide better K% rates? It's hard to project as Arcia hit .300+ everywhere, neither of those guys has provided a .300+ season yet. So in the Twins system, I don't see anyone (At this time) displacing him from LF. (Assuming Rosario sticks it out at 2B). Walker has a better arm for sure. Maybe RF arm. A comment on Aaron Hicks probably might be in order here...but I digress.

It's probably too early to make a 'hasty' decision on Arcia on the offensive end.

He's at least as serviceable defensively at LF as Kubel and Delmon Young - so I think he'll be fine as a LF.

I'll say what many will probably think - that's a damn fine second post sir. Even if Delmon Young's defense and "serviceable" belong together like oil and water.

:)

Oldgoat_MN
09-20-2013, 12:44 PM
I'd still prefer Arcia at 1B/DH, with Mauer at RF/1B/DH, because defense does matter. That said, unless they actually try to win next year, I'd leave Arcia in RF and see what happens. I think he can hit the ball, I'm not sure he can field.

Arcia is listed as being 6' 0" tall. Thrylos said that this is very overstated and that his height is probably about 5' 10". That is not going to play at 1B as long as you have fielders who have to hurry throws, which every MLB team has every game.

Nick Nelson
09-20-2013, 02:24 PM
I will be very curious to see how Arcia's body develops. He's already a pretty huge guy at 22 -- what's he going to look like at 28?

mike wants wins
09-20-2013, 02:31 PM
Arcia is listed as being 6' 0" tall. Thrylos said that this is very overstated and that his height is probably about 5' 10". That is not going to play at 1B as long as you have fielders who have to hurry throws, which every MLB team has every game.

I didn't know he was that short. Hmmmmm......

stringer bell
09-20-2013, 02:39 PM
The other part of this, Mike, is that you are asking two players to move to positions they never played before (Mauer made an emergency start in right, but still). Arcia has been an outfielder exclusively in pro ball while Mauer has played about half a season at first in the majors and played quite well there from what I've seen.

mike wants wins
09-20-2013, 03:10 PM
Oh, I like Mauer at 1B, I'm just trying to think more broadly......realisitically? I think Mauer is your 1B/DH next year, and Arcia is your RF, and Dozier is your 2B and then I have no idea of what I like after that.....well, I guess Pinto is your C.