PDA

View Full Version : Masahiro Tanaka



Badsmerf
09-11-2013, 01:08 PM
I think he deserves a thread of his own.

First, all of the posters clamoring for him, have you even watched him pitch? Youtube might not be perfect, but you can get a good idea of what a guy has. From watching him some (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Acu_tWYNNpA) you can see a few things. What first stands out in this clip is he has a sweet split finger (I think that is what it is anyway). Second, I don't like the command of his FB. MLB hitters are patient and will force hitter's counts making him unable to cut teeth with that split finger or slider.

I found this (http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html) article with some scouting information on him. After going through it, it really didn't completely convince me Tanaka is worth 100m (assuming that is the price-tag). An interesting comp they threw out was Dan Haren. I wouldn't mind risking 10-15m a year on this guys since he does look like he will be a pretty good pitcher, but I wouldn't go over 15.

It is easy to get excited considering the success Darvish has had recently. However, we shouldn't put too much into the comparison between because the only similarity they have is being born in the same country. Darvish is taller, has a better delivery (IMO), throws harder, and have a different mix of pitches that are effective. Darvish is a guy I would have put 100m into, unfortunately, he isn't on the market, Tanaka is.

The link provided shows a comparison with how each did in the Japan league. I am not putting too much weight into other than they both did really well. If we've been shown anything, is that the two leagues are not directly correlated with success. If the Twins do bite the bullet and go after him I will not lavish if it is a failure, rather applaud their willingness to compete. I hope someone signs him and gives us another story to follow next season.

mike wants wins
09-11-2013, 01:16 PM
I want him because, from what I've read, he's the most likely player to be available to be a number 3 pitcher. Not one US FA is likely to be that, possibly yes, but not likely. They have as much money available to spend on this as it takes, they are committed to under $60MM next year.

To me, he has more value to the Twins than he does to other teams. They have plenty of money, they don't have 1 pitcher they are sure is even a number 4 signed for next year, and the guys in the minors were in AA or lower this year.

Nope, never seen him pitch. But I have not seen Phil Hughes this year, or any other US FA this year.

If you wouldn't go over 15, what would you do with the money instead, to make the team better?*

*not saying I'd go over 15, just wondering why you picked that number

Badsmerf
09-11-2013, 01:31 PM
If you wouldn't go over 15, what would you do with the money instead, to make the team better?*

*not saying I'd go over 15, just wondering why you picked that number
I wouldn't feel comfortable spending more than 15 on him since he is such an unknown quantity. From the surface, he looks like he could pretty easily be a #2, not sure if Ace potential is there (p.s. I like to capitalize the "a" in Ace for a dramatic effect).

It is purely speculation, but I feel that would be a good limit to set based on possible return. I could be way off. I didn't read anything about offers on the table. Just purely from reading scouting reports and watching youtube clips, completely arbitrary.

howieramone
09-11-2013, 01:33 PM
Mike, what is the magical number the Twins should post? I know you will express some displeasure if the Twins come away empty handed and I was hoping you could provide some guidance on the correct course the Twins should take. Remember, one shot, winner take all.

mike wants wins
09-11-2013, 01:49 PM
1 billion dollars,

I have no idea what the posting number needs to be.

Brandon
09-11-2013, 01:53 PM
I'll throw this out there, 5 year contract totaling 80 million for both posting fee and contract or 6 years with 90 million total cost. Either one would about be an appropriate limit.

TheLeviathan
09-11-2013, 02:20 PM
I'd be upset if they posted less than 40M. They have tht much in saved in payroll this year alone.

Willihammer
09-11-2013, 02:43 PM
I found this (http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html) article with some scouting information on him. After going through it, it really didn't completely convince me Tanaka is worth 100m (assuming that is the price-tag). An interesting comp they threw out was Dan Haren. I wouldn't mind risking 10-15m a year on this guys since he does look like he will be a pretty good pitcher, but I wouldn't go over 15.

Interesting report. I would have liked to hear what Tanaka's actual x-z pitch movement is but the comps are helpful in a roundabout way I guess. And if they are accurate,' then I don't know how you can conclude anything but excitement over this guy's talent. Haren's splitter is an excellent pitch. Samardzija's slider is a good pitch.

His fastball isn't going to blow many guys away but that's not Tanaka's game. He throws less than 40% fastballs. So his game is junk, and his junk pitches are solid.

James
09-11-2013, 02:44 PM
Darvish's posting fee was $51.7M. I'm not saying that you would have to post that much to get him, but I would expect the winner will probably post somewhere in the $47-55M range.

Wild speculation, but given the scouting reports that I've read, and looking at the stats from the NPB, that's my guess. He will be the same age as Darvish was when he was posted, and I've seen some reports say that he has the best splitter in the world. That's a pretty bold statement.

Here are some comparison pitchers stats from NPB:

Hisashi Iwakuma (Posting fee of $19.1M after 2010 season, but did not sign with Oakland):
Hisashi Iwakuma Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=iwakum001his)

Yu Darvish (Posting fee $51.7M, signed 6-year $60M contract):
Yu Darvish Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=darvis001yu-)

Masahiro Tanaka (Posting fee??? Contract??):
Masahiro Tanaka Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=tanaka003mas)

howieramone
09-11-2013, 02:49 PM
I'd be upset if they posted less than 40M. They have tht much in saved in payroll this year alone.Finally an agreement. If he checks out with our scouts, I would go 50M without batting an eye. If Ryan can pickup same or similar prior to the 2015 season, our starting pitching should be somewhere in the middle. Future improvements will be in place in our farm system by then.

Winston Smith
09-11-2013, 02:53 PM
Sanchez signed last winter for 5yrs $88m. He is a solid pitcher certainly our ace/best starter. I have no idea how this guy would compare with Sanchez but my guess is $15m a year will be needed to sign him.
IMO that will never happen for two reasons:
1. Terry has never even come close to spending that much on a FA
2. Nishi do they really take a chance for a lot more money ending up with Nishi 2.0?

diehardtwinsfan
09-11-2013, 03:19 PM
I'm guessing the winning bid will need to be in the 50-60M range. Hope I'm wrong there, but someone is going to shell out some cash for him.

James
09-11-2013, 03:23 PM
Sanchez signed last winter for 5yrs $88m. He is a solid pitcher certainly our ace/best starter. I have no idea how this guy would compare with Sanchez but my guess is $15m a year will be needed to sign him.
IMO that will never happen for two reasons:
1. Terry has never even come close to spending that much on a FA
2. Nishi do they really take a chance for a lot more money ending up with Nishi 2.0?
I don't think that he'll need $15M per year to sign. Consider that Darvish only averaged $10M per year. I don't think you should expect anything more than that.

Overall, with pitcher cost inflation, I'd expect that it will take about the same amount of money to Tanaka as it took the Rangers to get Darvish.

As far as the Nishi comparison goes, he's not Nishi. First off, Japanese pitching seems to translate better the MLB than postion players. Second, Tanaka has a track record of being good. Look at his NPB stats. Nishi had one good year and then Bill Smith came running.

The Nishi experience should not scare the Twins away from Japanese players, especially pitchers.

cmb0252
09-11-2013, 03:24 PM
No sources that i have seen have suggested Tanaka will get anything close to 100M. Darvish and Dice-K were looked at as #2's with ace upside while Tanaka is looked at as a #3 with #2 upside. Some experts have suggested once all is said and done he will be in the70-80 million range. About half of that will go to the posting fee so in reality you would only be on the hook for ~7-8 million a year. Even if doesn't turn out to be a #2 you aren't crippled financially.

Reports have Rangers out of the running, Dodgers more concerned trying to lock up Kershaw, and the Yankees worried about luxury tax/resigning Cano. Does this mean they won't jump back in later? No, but several of the big players have other things on their plates. Also, the only two teams that I have seen reported with top brass out there so far are the Twins and Giants.

James
09-11-2013, 03:44 PM
No sources that i have seen have suggested Tanaka will get anything close to 100M. Darvish and Dice-K were looked at as #2's with ace upside while Tanaka is looked at as a #3 with #2 upside. Some experts have suggested once all is said and done he will be in the70-80 million range. About half of that will go to the posting fee so in reality you would only be on the hook for ~7-8 million a year. Even if doesn't turn out to be a #2 you aren't crippled financially.

Reports have Rangers out of the running, Dodgers more concerned trying to lock up Kershaw, and the Yankees worried about luxury tax/resigning Cano. Does this mean they won't jump back in later? No, but several of the big players have other things on their plates. Also, the only two teams that I have seen reported with top brass out there so far are the Twins and Giants.
You're probably right. I probably am estimating way too high. I also forgot those other factors. I hope that he only goes for the $70-80M range, and I hope that money comes from the Twins.

Larsbars08
09-11-2013, 03:57 PM
Based on what we've heard about him, I assume that there will be a posting fee that is roughly half to 2/3 of what Yu Darvish got. Which would be roughly a 25-35 million dollar posting fee. When it's that high you're probably expecting a contract in the ballpark of 5 years for 25-40 million depending on how high the posting fee ends up. The posting fee is high, but in the end you're probably only paying 5-8 million a year for a pitcher who probably becomes our best pitcher. That's far from a prohibitive cost, even for the Twins.

cmb0252
09-11-2013, 04:15 PM
The one team the "scares me" are the cubs. They are pretty much in the same spot as us but have more ready now guys IMO. Add in Theo signed Dice-K while in Boston and the front office's willingness to spend money. I haven't heard their top brass linked to him yet but if I had to guess today I would bet they win him. Hopefully Ryan proves me wrong!

70charger
09-11-2013, 04:23 PM
I was under the impression that the posting fee bidding for Darvish was ridiculously one-sided. As in, the Rangers paid $52 million, and the next highest bidder bid something like $15 million. I guess that kind of gross overpay is the price of certainty, but the only other posting fee that's ever even been in that neighborhood was Daisuke Matsuzaka.

In other words, if there isn't one team out there ready and willing to break the bank to guarantee Tanaka's rights, is there any reason to think that this posting fee would be even close to Darvish? Even half?

Willihammer
09-11-2013, 04:25 PM
You're probably right. I probably am estimating way too high. I also forgot those other factors. I hope that he only goes for the $70-80M range, and I hope that money comes from the Twins.

I suspect your first guess is still on the low end. Tanaka might not be as talented as Darvish but I suspect he is the best talent available this offseason. He will cost the most. I think we're talking something between Anibal and Greinke type money.

cmb0252
09-11-2013, 04:32 PM
I was under the impression that the posting fee bidding for Darvish was ridiculously one-sided. As in, the Rangers paid $52 million, and the next highest bidder bid something like $15 million. I guess that kind of gross overpay is the price of certainty, but the only other posting fee that's ever even been in that neighborhood was Daisuke Matsuzaka.

In other words, if there isn't one team out there ready and willing to break the bank to guarantee Tanaka's rights, is there any reason to think that this posting fee would be even close to Darvish? Even half?

Reports have the Cubs coming in second and the Blue Jays coming in third with bids less than $35 M of the $52 M the rangers offered. I think the elevated number comes from the Dodgers putting up a $27.5 M posting fee for Ryu before signing him to a six year deal. Tanaka is considered a better pitcher than Ryu who the Dodgers ended up spending a total of $62M on.

diehardtwinsfan
09-11-2013, 04:47 PM
I was under the impression that the posting fee bidding for Darvish was ridiculously one-sided. As in, the Rangers paid $52 million, and the next highest bidder bid something like $15 million. I guess that kind of gross overpay is the price of certainty, but the only other posting fee that's ever even been in that neighborhood was Daisuke Matsuzaka.

In other words, if there isn't one team out there ready and willing to break the bank to guarantee Tanaka's rights, is there any reason to think that this posting fee would be even close to Darvish? Even half?

This is the second time I've heard this here, and I've never seen a link to substantiate it. I would think if this was true that someone in the Texas front office may have their job over it. That's a pretty gross miscalculation.

That said, I don't know if Darvish is a good comp or not, but what I do know is that Tanaka pitched good enough to get the comparrisons, and I've heard more than once that his split finger fastball is better than anyone else's... anywhere.

I have a tough time believing that the total investment for Tanaka is only going to be 60M. That would be nice, but I suspect you are looking at a 50Mish posting fee and a similar contract when it's all said and done. That's a good risk for a 24 year old pitcher, a lot smarter than tossing that at a 31 year old pitcher. Given the savings the Twins have had in the payroll dept this year and next year, I think they should do it, and this is another young talent that fits into that next wave.

cmb0252
09-11-2013, 05:11 PM
Where are you guys getting this 100+ M number from? I haven't read anything that suggests that. History defiantly doesn't. Did I miss something? (Sure wouldn't be the first time I did)

LaBombo
09-11-2013, 05:30 PM
This is the second time I've heard this here, and I've never seen a link to substantiate it. I would think if this was true that someone in the Texas front office may have their job over it. That's a pretty gross miscalculation.

Buster Olney reported it this way:

"Remember how the Jays were expected to be such big players in the Yu Darvish bidding? Well, one official said that Toronto actually finished third in the bidding, behind the Rangers and Cubs, and that no bid was within $35 million of what Texas tendered."

Maybe somebody in Texas was told it would mean their job if they didn't get Darvish, rather than if they grossly outbid other teams.

Anyway, I tend to agree with you that it's going to take more than a total commitment of $60 million. If Darvish's posting is halfway between aberration and market correction, then Tanaka may fetch 20-25 million posting and 50-55 million for 5 years, that's about $75 million, or about halfway between 'bargain' and 'pricey'.

That price would be doable and would go a long way toward restoring credibility on and off the field.

Monkeypaws
09-11-2013, 05:37 PM
His fastball isn't going to blow many guys away but that's not Tanaka's game. He throws less than 40% fastballs. So his game is junk, and his junk pitches are solid.

He sounds like a Rick Anderson pitch-to-contact dream. :)

I think the Twins are all in on this guy....

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-11-2013, 06:09 PM
I was really impressed by what I saw with him. His delivery is silky smooth, he has a high release point, and hides the ball extremely well. His breaking stuff is fairly deceptive too.

Willihammer
09-11-2013, 06:28 PM
This is the second time I've heard this here, and I've never seen a link to substantiate it. I would think if this was true that someone in the Texas front office may have their job over it. That's a pretty gross miscalculation.

Lose their job? They secured an outstanding pitcher for a good price.

The more I think about Tanaka, I can't imagine why any team wouldn't be interested in him. He's arguably the most talented pitcher in the class but carries the bonus of being 2 years younger than anyone except Hughes. He's young enough to appeal to rebuilders and for the heavy hitters, posting fees don't count against the luxury tax (for the moment anyway). No, I don't like the Twins chances at all.

Maybe the guy we should be watching is Kenta Maeda. His stuff isn't expected to translate as well, lower velocities across the board, but he gets very good results. Only problem is, the general opinion seems to be there's a <50% chance he posts this year.

abnormal_1
09-11-2013, 07:05 PM
I have to admit utter and complete ignorance regarding Masahiro Tanaka other than what I have read in places such as Twins Daily. Based on what I have read it sounds like we are talking a relatively young (24) pitcher who has number two starter or worst case number 3 starter.

Right now the pipeline for big league ready starters is bare...some good stuff coming (Meyer/May/Berrios/Stewart/Melotakis) But with injuries(Meyer) and still working on control (May) Isn't anything ready come Opening Day next year.

Twins should overspend on this if needed. They have saved money recently on payroll and a bunch more coming off. Right now attracting a top free agent isn't going to happen with out absurd overpaying.

Post high. By doing this it is actually cheaper. Post $35 pay 40-45 over 5 years and you are starting to fill that gap.

Tanaka - 2014
Meyer - 2014.5/2015
May - 2015
Berrios/Melotakis/Stewart - 2016

Sure I'm missing some starting pitchers coming up. But you get Tanaka (who will be cheaper, wont require to trade away any assets, and won't have any other options like FA pitchers) and 2014 has a chance to be the year that the 90 loss years end. Hell at that point go nuts and overspend on Phil Hughes andn Twins might even think about a wildcard.

Twins got the money with Morneau/Blackburn and previous subtraction. Going after Tanaka makes all the sense in the world....IF the scouts like what they have seen

howieramone
09-11-2013, 07:35 PM
I have to admit utter and complete ignorance regarding Masahiro Tanaka other than what I have read in places such as Twins Daily. Based on what I have read it sounds like we are talking a relatively young (24) pitcher who has number two starter or worst case number 3 starter.

Right now the pipeline for big league ready starters is bare...some good stuff coming (Meyer/May/Berrios/Stewart/Melotakis) But with injuries(Meyer) and still working on control (May) Isn't anything ready come Opening Day next year.

Twins should overspend on this if needed. They have saved money recently on payroll and a bunch more coming off. Right now attracting a top free agent isn't going to happen with out absurd overpaying.

Post high. By doing this it is actually cheaper. Post $35 pay 40-45 over 5 years and you are starting to fill that gap.

Tanaka - 2014
Meyer - 2014.5/2015
May - 2015
Berrios/Melotakis/Stewart - 2016

Sure I'm missing some starting pitchers coming up. But you get Tanaka (who will be cheaper, wont require to trade away any assets, and won't have any other options like FA pitchers) and 2014 has a chance to be the year that the 90 loss years end. Hell at that point go nuts and overspend on Phil Hughes andn Twins might even think about a wildcard.

Twins got the money with Morneau/Blackburn and previous subtraction. Going after Tanaka makes all the sense in the world....IF the scouts like what they have seen

Good first post! To nit pick, I would substitute Eades for Melotakis, but you pretty much nailed it.

diehardtwinsfan
09-11-2013, 07:44 PM
Lose their job? They secured an outstanding pitcher for a good price.

The more I think about Tanaka, I can't imagine why any team wouldn't be interested in him. He's arguably the most talented pitcher in the class but carries the bonus of being 2 years younger than anyone except Hughes. He's young enough to appeal to rebuilders and for the heavy hitters, posting fees don't count against the luxury tax (for the moment anyway). No, I don't like the Twins chances at all.

Maybe the guy we should be watching is Kenta Maeda. His stuff isn't expected to translate as well, lower velocities across the board, but he gets very good results. Only problem is, the general opinion seems to be there's a <50% chance he posts this year.

They overpaid by 30M on the posting fee, and since the fee is generally half of the contract, the total overpayment is about 50-60M...

I agree the Twins need to go after him.

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 07:54 PM
Between last year and this year, Darvish has been worth 44.3M. His salary for 2012-2013 is a combined 15M. He's well on his way to making up whatever they 'overpaid' him.

Willihammer
09-12-2013, 08:45 AM
I look at the Darvish posting differently. IMO one team was in the ballpark in their valuation (Texas) and everyone else was way off

mike wants wins
09-12-2013, 08:48 AM
I look at the Darvish posting differently. IMO one team was in the ballpark in their valuation (Texas) and everyone else was way off

I agree with this 100%, he's well worth what they are/will pay him. Everyone else was wrong.

kab21
09-12-2013, 09:50 AM
Where are you guys getting this 100+ M number from? I haven't read anything that suggests that. History defiantly doesn't. Did I miss something? (Sure wouldn't be the first time I did)

There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.

mike wants wins
09-12-2013, 10:04 AM
There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.

And the media will back them up in that shock, frankly I'm done with the local media's kid glove treatment of the team, just cancelled my STRIB membership (first time I have not gotten that paper when I lived in MN, since I was born.....).

big dog
09-12-2013, 11:22 AM
Lose their job? They secured an outstanding pitcher for a good price.


Single-bid sealed envelope auctions are a complete crapshoot, especially when they happen infrequently and the quality of the good being auctioned varies dramatically. It would be pretty tough to fire someone for winning one, especially when it worked out the way it did.

Submitting a bid that was one-third of the winning bid, which still turned out to be a bargain, would be a much better way to get fired, I would think.

cmb0252
09-12-2013, 11:27 AM
There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.

I just don't see it. I think the highest bid will be in the $35-40 range with a 6 year contract that will be close to the bid number. Darvish was hyped for 2 years before being posted while, reportedly, only two teams have sent top brass to see him. I guess only time will tell who is right.

S.
09-12-2013, 11:57 AM
I was really impressed by what I saw with him. His delivery is silky smooth, he has a high release point, and hides the ball extremely well. His breaking stuff is fairly deceptive too.
Agreed fully. The consistency and ease of his delivery was probably the first thing to really jump out at me when watching footage of him (well, maybe after seeing that filthy split). As I've said previously, I'm no pro when it comes to analyzing pitcher's mechanics, but his delivery looked damn near perfect to my untrained eye. And as you said, he hides the ball very well, which is definitely making his already good "junk" pitches even better and is a very big plus in my book when you're looking at pitchers who aren't going to blow people away with 100mph fastballs. Obviously there is an overall higher caliber of hitters in MLB than NPB, but I think he still has plenty of ability to make batters look foolish and induce a lot of ground balls over here with the combination of his deception, his incredible split and his plus slider.

I'm not gonna sit here and proclaim he's some guaranteed ace, or even a guaranteed 2 or 3, but I feel pretty comfortable saying he has the stuff to be the ace of the Twin's staff by a huge margin, barring any other surprising FA signings, trades, or a miraculous transformation of Kevin Correia into Clayton Kershaw when the clock strikes 2014.

Badsmerf
09-12-2013, 08:50 PM
And the media will back them up in that shock, frankly I'm done with the local media's kid glove treatment of the team, just cancelled my STRIB membership (first time I have not gotten that paper when I lived in MN, since I was born.....).
A lot of us have been calling the local media the "Twins media machine" for years. They put out what the Twins want them do. The Twins intentionally leak stories so the fanbase takes their side and hid others that don't favor them so much. There are plenty of examples to draw from, so your assumption is pretty spot on. Local sports coverage has been pretty stale for a long time. Berardino has done a better job than I've seen in a long time though. He's the first that I can actually read without throwing up in my mouth.

howieramone
09-12-2013, 09:14 PM
A lot of us have been calling the local media the "Twins media machine" for years. They put out what the Twins want them do. The Twins intentionally leak stories so the fanbase takes their side and hid others that don't favor them so much. There are plenty of examples to draw from, so your assumption is pretty spot on. Local sports coverage has been pretty stale for a long time. Berardino has done a better job than I've seen in a long time though. He's the first that I can actually read without throwing up in my mouth.

We should get back to Tanaka, but I don't believe it's possible for the media to brainwash millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans.

mike wants wins
09-12-2013, 09:56 PM
We should get back to Tanaka, but I don't believe it's possible for the media to brainwash millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans.

I 100% believe the media is in the brainwashing business....I am surprised that people don't think that.

abnormal_1
09-12-2013, 10:05 PM
So back to Tanaka....

Bottom line is that over last couple years the twins have cut payroll and saved. I think legitimately so as spending more the last couple years would not have been the answer...at best delivered mediocrity.

The top line free agents pitchers weren't coming here (Zach Gereineke) they can get overpaid and play for contenders.

But...with money saved and now the salary shed with Morneau being traded (Go Pirates!), Blackburn coming off the books, it is time to go after Tanaka.

With the posting process once you win that you have a captive negotiation. If the Twins can get a legitimate number 2 starter who is 24 years old for a 90-100million composite over the next 6 years they need to do so.

This is the number one hole at the moment and would provide the right now building block

There are good things coming through the farm system...It just the pitching due to injury (Meyer) and needing more refinement (May) are at best mid season 2014 and more likely 2015.

Once the farm system pipeline starts delivering it truly looks like the Twins are positioned for a 8-10 year run. Sure be nice to add another trophy to the champions club!

jorgenswest
09-12-2013, 10:22 PM
What posting fee would you expect of the Twins? It is easy to take a position after the fact tht the Twins should have gone higher? The Twins don't luxury of knowing the winning bid.

So should the Twins put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket? Would a post of 30 million and salary next year of 10 million be enough? The contract will run several more years but the burden on 2014 would be the most difficult.

That's my bid. 40 million on the books for next year. Go young for 2014. Add more in 2015 when the posting fee burden is gone.

If another team goes higher I have no complaints.

howieramone
09-12-2013, 10:38 PM
What posting fee would you expect of the Twins? It is easy to take a position after the fact tht the Twins should have gone higher? The Twins don't luxury of knowing the winning bid.

So should the Twins put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket? Would a post of 30 million and salary next year of 10 million be enough? The contract will run several more years but the burden on 2014 would be the most difficult.

That's my bid. 40 million on the books for next year. Go young for 2014. Add more in 2015 when the posting fee burden is gone.

If another team goes higher I have no complaints.

Assuming Tanaka checks out with our scouts, I'm on record for a 50M posting fee without batting an eye for exactly the same reasons abnormal_1 just pointed out. I'm hoping this where we take our shot.

jorgenswest
09-12-2013, 10:48 PM
Assuming Tanaka checks out with our scouts, I'm on record for a 50M posting fee without batting an eye for exactly the same reasons abnormal_1 just pointed out. I'm hoping this where we take our shot.

So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.

howieramone
09-12-2013, 11:06 PM
So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.

Always. I have complete faith in our scouts. I fully understand they are human and will make mistakes. If they say go, I would break the bank. If they decide this isn't the one, then we go on to the next one. As a side note, I read where we spotted Buxton 3 years prior to drafting him. I also read we saw every pitch Stewart made for the past 2 years. If Jim Callis comes to TD to visit, we should drag it out of him which SS we covet.

jorgenswest
09-12-2013, 11:24 PM
Always. I have complete faith in our scouts. I fully understand they are human and will make mistakes. If they say go, I would break the bank. If they decide this isn't the one, then we go on to the next one. As a side note, I read where we spotted Buxton 3 years prior to drafting him. I also read we saw every pitch Stewart made for the past 2 years. If Jim Callis comes to TD to visit, we should drag it out of him which SS we covet.

I am with you on the scouts. However, we will never really know what the scouts reported to Ryan.

I do feel that the Twins have 40 million of space in the budget before they are really stretched beyond their market and revenues. I would direct all of that towards Tanaka or front loading bonus in an Abreau contract.

They need to add that one key piece for 2014 and the future with a greater burden next year and flexibility to add in future years. It won't be near enough for 2014, but will show commitment towards rebuilding a winning team.

I will never know what the scouts report. Short of that, I expect the biggest play they can make. To me, that is 40 million for 2014 split between posting fee (30 million) and year one salary (10 million).

diehardtwinsfan
09-13-2013, 10:48 AM
So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.

I would personally hope they just bid less. Regardless of whether he checks out or not, he has upside. That's pretty clear. If they look at him and see back of the rotation arm, you still bid, but not as much...


Though with the Twins, that one might get a higher bid :) (that was a joke BTW).

kab21
09-13-2013, 11:49 AM
I just don't see it. I think the highest bid will be in the $35-40 range with a 6 year contract that will be close to the bid number. Darvish was hyped for 2 years before being posted while, reportedly, only two teams have sent top brass to see him. I guess only time will tell who is right.

You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).

ericchri
09-13-2013, 12:16 PM
You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).

I agree, I think the Darvish bid actually makes it more likely Tanaka gets a huge bid, maybe even something similar. Texas massively outbid everyone else, supposedly, but the fact that they did means any future GM's are going to have that in the back of their mind for someone like Tanaka. You have to decide between bidding what you think he's worth as opposed to bidding what you think it'll take to guarantee you win the bid, and the two are likely not to be close.

cmb0252
09-13-2013, 12:39 PM
You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).

Actually I'm coming up with my numbers looking at Darvish/Dice-K (100M+) as the high end while taking into account Ryu (62M) as the low end. Ryu didn't go for some insane number last year even though teams had a stupid amount of money. While Tanaka is a better prospect than Ryu I don't I don't see him being 40+M better than him.

In the end we are just arguing over semantics because your bid number is about what I would expect a team to offer. 40ish give or take.

Oxtung
09-13-2013, 02:00 PM
I am with you on the scouts. However, we will never really know what the scouts reported to Ryan.

I think it's safe to say the Twins' scouts like him since the members of the FO have flown over to see him pitch personally.


When is Tanaka expected to be posted?

nicksaviking
09-13-2013, 03:32 PM
I think it's safe to say the Twins' scouts like him since the members of the FO have flown over to see him pitch personally.


When is Tanaka expected to be posted?

They probably liked his middling 7.7 K/9, but since the reports of multiple team's scouts showing up to watch, I think he's been striking out more guys, that may have turned the Twins scouts off. :)

kab21
09-13-2013, 06:56 PM
Actually I'm coming up with my numbers looking at Darvish/Dice-K (100M+) as the high end while taking into account Ryu (62M) as the low end. Ryu didn't go for some insane number last year even though teams had a stupid amount of money. While Tanaka is a better prospect than Ryu I don't I don't see him being 40+M better than him.

In the end we are just arguing over semantics because your bid number is about what I would expect a team to offer. 40ish give or take.

A) Ryu is further proof of the stupid money that teams are throwing around (especially the Dodgers). I think Ryu was expected to be a 30M or so guy for the posting fee and FA contract. He got double that.

B) That's the most I would bid but I also don't think that is going to win the bid.

nicksaviking
09-15-2013, 11:49 PM
It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.

AM.
09-16-2013, 06:04 AM
Wouldn't it be a fun shock if the Twins dropped a $50mm big of this kid?

It would fit the "any current year price" comment from Jim Pohlad. And the contract wouldn't need to be 7-8 years, right?

Badsmerf
09-16-2013, 07:19 AM
It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.
I have a hard time believing that would fly with the MLB. They have taken some pretty drastic measures to try and level the playing field with respect to competitiveness. A system like that would make it completely unfair as the Japanese teams know which teams have more money.

old nurse
09-16-2013, 07:41 AM
It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.

NPB would never allow it. It would cut the posting fee dramatically as you would only have to try for top 3. It would also then encourage players to try to leave Japan as they could get mlb to bid for their services, make more money than in Japan, and drain Japan's talent pool. The players and agents would love it. The teams lose. The teams control the process.

cmathewson
09-16-2013, 08:45 AM
Glad this thread didn't devolve into "the Twins will never sign _____________ because they are too cheap". Though I don't think it's likely, if it doesn't happen, the reason is as much about the insane spending by other teams as the cheapness of the Twins. I'm not averse to overspending here and there to improve the team. And my sense is neither is Jim Pohlad (Ryan on the other hand...). But you have to pick and choose carefully lest you run out of cash.

The Twins are not in danger of running out of cash anytime soon. But if, for example, they had signed the two Cubans and this Japanese player, there wouldn't be much left for filler. I'd love to see them sign one of them though. Of the three, Tanaka was my top choice, both because of need and projectability.

mike wants wins
09-16-2013, 08:51 AM
I don't agree they can't get filler, but even if that is true, I'd rather they spend money on elite players and worry about filler later.

Monkeypaws
09-16-2013, 09:18 AM
If the Twins were to win one of these bids, now would be the time. They have the cash, and it would be good for the team obviously, but would also give them some solid PR heading into All-Star mania.

nicksaviking
09-16-2013, 09:40 AM
I have a hard time believing that would fly with the MLB. They have taken some pretty drastic measures to try and level the playing field with respect to competitiveness. A system like that would make it completely unfair as the Japanese teams know which teams have more money.


NPB would never allow it. It would cut the posting fee dramatically as you would only have to try for top 3. It would also then encourage players to try to leave Japan as they could get mlb to bid for their services, make more money than in Japan, and drain Japan's talent pool. The players and agents would love it. The teams lose. The teams control the process.

Don't shoot me, I'm just the messanger (who read between the lines and threw in his interpretation of how things would play out):

Sources: Major changes coming to Japanese player posting system (http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/sources-major-changes-coming-to-japanese-player-posting-system-1.6075431)

old nurse
09-16-2013, 10:39 AM
Don't shoot me, I'm just the messanger (who read between the lines and threw in his interpretation of how things would play out):

Sources: Major changes coming to Japanese player posting system (http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/sources-major-changes-coming-to-japanese-player-posting-system-1.6075431)

It is not shoot the messenger, it is called see both sides. "Sources" Where? MLB, agents? Of course MLB wants to get the posting fee down, it sort of saves money. If it encourages more players to come over it increases the talent pool. That might lower the cost of mid level players as there are more of them. Agents have figured out the pay is better here. It would raise the level of pay in Japan and elsewhere in the far east. On the other hand, why would the Japanese league change if they don't have to? Their free agency is at 9 years. They have control. What are they going to get to give up that control?

nicksaviking
09-16-2013, 10:58 AM
It is not shoot the messenger, it is called see both sides. "Sources" Where? MLB, agents? Of course MLB wants to get the posting fee down, it sort of saves money. If it encourages more players to come over it increases the talent pool. That might lower the cost of mid level players as there are more of them. Agents have figured out the pay is better here. It would raise the level of pay in Japan and elsewhere in the far east. On the other hand, why would the Japanese league change if they don't have to? Their free agency is at 9 years. They have control. What are they going to get to give up that control?

Well it's not like it's Bleacher Report, this is coming from a reputable publication.

I'm not sure what the NPB has to gain aside from eliminating some MLB teams from putting a large bid in simply to block other teams and then not following through with a contract.

Also, while Japanese players are under contract for 9 years unless posted, they do not have to sign with a Japanese club to begin with. It could be a preemptive move by the Japanese Leagues in case they fear the youngsters would start to come directly to the US. By modifying the posting system, it would make it easier (and more lucrative) for the players to at least stay a few years at home.

Just spitballing, but the article seems pretty legit.

maxisagod
09-16-2013, 11:44 AM
Also, while Japanese players are under contract for 9 years unless posted, they do not have to sign with a Japanese club to begin with. It could be a preemptive move by the Japanese Leagues in case they fear the youngsters would start to come directly to the US.

This is the key in my mind. a couple of top high school pitching prospects last year were rumored to be interested in signing with an MLB club rather then signing with a Japan team. When the first kid does do it, it could start a huge talent drain for Professional Baseball in Japan.

old nurse
09-16-2013, 02:59 PM
This is the key in my mind. a couple of top high school pitching prospects last year were rumored to be interested in signing with an MLB club rather then signing with a Japan team. When the first kid does do it, it could start a huge talent drain for Professional Baseball in Japan.
If they are not drafted by an NPB they can sign. If they are drafted, then they have to sit out a year. That is part of the deal with MLB and NPB.
I would think under MLB rules, they would be subject to international amateur signing rules. So there isn't the big money for signing. If they are that talented they would probably rise up the payroll ranks quickly in Japan. Tanaka at 24 is making 4.5 million there. If he had sat out his year, went to the minors here, now as a 2 or third year player he would make no more than a million. When he comes here he can negotiate a higher payday with time enough left for a real good contract. I think they are money ahead because they will rise quicker in Japan and get paid more in the end during the development/pre free agent time.

nicksaviking
09-16-2013, 03:22 PM
If they are not drafted by an NPB they can sign. If they are drafted, then they have to sit out a year. That is part of the deal with MLB and NPB.
I would think under MLB rules, they would be subject to international amateur signing rules. So there isn't the big money for signing. If they are that talented they would probably rise up the payroll ranks quickly in Japan. Tanaka at 24 is making 4.5 million there. If he had sat out his year, went to the minors here, now as a 2 or third year player he would make no more than a million. When he comes here he can negotiate a higher payday with time enough left for a real good contract. I think they are money ahead because they will rise quicker in Japan and get paid more in the end during the development/pre free agent time.

Like the Cubans, I don't believe any Japanese players are relegated to international signing limits but unlike the Cubans, I don't believe there are any age restrictions on the Japanese players.

Anyway, the Japanese owners may be taking heat from the players association. The Japanese players association hates the posting system as the players only get to negotiate with one club. If the MLBPA sees an unfair practice, they sure as hell don't sit down and take it. I doubt the Japanese players association is content with the current agreement.

Anyway, no matter what the rationale for change is, I'm not sure why you're disagreeing that change is likely in the air, it's all over the internet. Plenty of credible publications are getting suckered it would seem:

There could be a big change to the Japanese player posting system this offseason | HardballTalk (http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/16/there-could-be-a-big-change-to-the-japanese-player-posting-system-this-offseason/)

Report: Major changes to posting system are in the works - CBSSports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/23662232/report-major-changes-to-posting-system-are-in-the-works)

Impact of changes to posting system - MLB Rumors Blog - ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post?id=7713)

Japanese Posting System May Change This Fall: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/japanese-posting-system-to-undergo-changes.html)

jay
09-17-2013, 01:32 PM
This article puts the Angels on Tanaka -- Los Angeles Angels scouted Masahiro Tanaka, Japanese pitcher, according to report - ESPN Los Angeles (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/9684346/los-angeles-angels-scouted-masahiro-tanaka-japanese-pitcher-according-report)

kab21
09-18-2013, 12:15 PM
Like the Cubans, I don't believe any Japanese players are relegated to international signing limits but unlike the Cubans, I don't believe there are any age restrictions on the Japanese players.

Anyway, the Japanese owners may be taking heat from the players association. The Japanese players association hates the posting system as the players only get to negotiate with one club. If the MLBPA sees an unfair practice, they sure as hell don't sit down and take it. I doubt the Japanese players association is content with the current agreement.

Anyway, no matter what the rationale for change is, I'm not sure why you're disagreeing that change is likely in the air, it's all over the internet. Plenty of credible publications are getting suckered it would seem:

There could be a big change to the Japanese player posting system this offseason | HardballTalk (http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/16/there-could-be-a-big-change-to-the-japanese-player-posting-system-this-offseason/)

Report: Major changes to posting system are in the works - CBSSports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/23662232/report-major-changes-to-posting-system-are-in-the-works)

Impact of changes to posting system - MLB Rumors Blog - ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post?id=7713)

Japanese Posting System May Change This Fall: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/japanese-posting-system-to-undergo-changes.html)

Even Cubans and Asians are subject to the new international signing limits. Almedys Diaz was being investigated for lying about his age in order to be OLDER. If he was over 23 (or whatever the limit is) then he wouldn't subject to the spending caps.