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Nick Nelson
09-10-2013, 09:02 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2322-Why-the-Twins-Will-Spend-This-Offseason

Seth Stohs
09-10-2013, 09:38 PM
Only question I would have is where are you going to spend the money? Don't want to spend big on 3B with Plouffe being there short-term and Sano likely up sometime before June. 2B isn't a need. 1B doesn't seem like a place to spend, especially if Mauer's going to be there. Outfield should include Hicks and Arcia sometime during the season, and Willingham is still going to be there with plenty of fourth OF options. Who knows, Eddie Rosario may be in the Twins outfield by the middle of next year too. Bullpen isn't a place to spend money.

So, it does all come down to Starting Pitchers... the question has to be asked, how many do you want, and how many current starters should be in the 2013 rotation. We know Correia will be. We'd like to think Gibson should be, or will be soon. There is hope that Alex Meyer woudln't be too far off. Will Deduno be healthy and has he earned a spot? I'd like a spot for guys like Diamond, Worley, Albers, Hendriks, to win. So, I see two spots.

Signing a name just to sign a name is never good. They could sign Johan Santana, and give him whatever contract they like, but he likely won't pitch much, certainly not until the second half. I'm good with going after a make-good pitcher like Lincecum, but at this point, he's just part of the crap shoot that is free agent starting pitching.

I'm not pretending to know what the answer is. I would rather trade for good arms than sign some #4s.

Nick Nelson
09-10-2013, 09:51 PM
There are plenty of interesting names beyond Santana and Lincecum. Indeed, the Twins are going to have to pay more to get these pitchers than most would judge that they're worth. But I think we need to cast aside those notions, because A) a player is "worth" whatever it takes to sign them, and B) the very definition of what any player is worth is transforming as more and more revenue flows into the game.

As ever, no one is suggesting that they "sign a name just to sign a name" or target No. 4s. There are going to be plenty of pitchers hitting FA that have shown the capability to be top-tier pitchers, and recently. Garza, Ervin Santana, Nolasco, Lincecum, Jimenez, Haren, Josh Johnson, the list goes on.

Yeah, you're going to have to spend more than you'd like, but you've got to pay to play. What else are they going to do with that money? Sit on it? They're headed toward a payroll that is like $25 million below this year's oft-criticized figure.

Brandon
09-10-2013, 09:51 PM
Baker, Santana, Pelfry, Hughes, Colby Lewis, Randy Messenger are some of the names I can see the Twins pursuing none are too expensive.

Tanaka (the Japanese pitcher who should be posted this offseason) is the only potential starter they could go after that will cost a fair amount of money.

I just don't see the Twins going after someone like Lincecum, Garza (again), Josh Johnson...

MichiganTwins
09-10-2013, 10:15 PM
The problem with saying what are they going to do with the money? sit on it? is the fact that the Twins did sit on it this year. I realize we have to spend some money and they likely will, but it really is getting hard to be optimistic about the FO spending money.

halfchest
09-10-2013, 10:16 PM
Only question I would have is where are you going to spend the money? Don't want to spend big on 3B with Plouffe being there short-term and Sano likely up sometime before June. 2B isn't a need. 1B doesn't seem like a place to spend, especially if Mauer's going to be there. Outfield should include Hicks and Arcia sometime during the season, and Willingham is still going to be there with plenty of fourth OF options. Who knows, Eddie Rosario may be in the Twins outfield by the middle of next year too. Bullpen isn't a place to spend money.

So, it does all come down to Starting Pitchers... the question has to be asked, how many do you want, and how many current starters should be in the 2013 rotation. We know Correia will be. We'd like to think Gibson should be, or will be soon. There is hope that Alex Meyer woudln't be too far off. Will Deduno be healthy and has he earned a spot? I'd like a spot for guys like Diamond, Worley, Albers, Hendriks, to win. So, I see two spots.

Signing a name just to sign a name is never good. They could sign Johan Santana, and give him whatever contract they like, but he likely won't pitch much, certainly not until the second half. I'm good with going after a make-good pitcher like Lincecum, but at this point, he's just part of the crap shoot that is free agent starting pitching.

I'm not pretending to know what the answer is. I would rather trade for good arms than sign some #4s.

I mean yah Correia maybe, but really, 5 million shouldn't guarantee him anything. He's been better than expected but if someone else earns it there's no reason Alex Meyer, Deduno, May, Worley, etc. wouldn't kick him out of a spot if they show up in the spring. I figure the Twins should plan on maybe two or three rotation spots being filled from the current roster. That's assuming Gibson steps it up and shows he's a big league guy, then one or two from the list you named. I really hope they don't just hand Correia a job because of his contract.

With the free money it really makes sense to go after some guys with top end upside because really the only top end upside we have is Gibson and Meyer right now (maybe May) but none of them have proven a thing at the big league level. None of the upcoming free agents will command 5-6 year deals right? So they can be signed for 2-4 year deals and won't cripple this franchise especially when you look at current long term commitments. If they work out, great, if not, well you deal with it and hope you can find a use for them in the bullpen etc. There are no amazing starting pitchers coming up in 2015 so really it does make sense to spend this off season on some lottery tickets.

Lots of guys who have done it before and could do it again. Pick up three of them and hope 2 work out. Then fill the rest of the rotation as best you can.

MichiganTwins
09-10-2013, 10:26 PM
Only question I would have is where are you going to spend the money? Don't want to spend big on 3B with Plouffe being there short-term and Sano likely up sometime before June. 2B isn't a need. 1B doesn't seem like a place to spend, especially if Mauer's going to be there. Outfield should include Hicks and Arcia sometime during the season, and Willingham is still going to be there with plenty of fourth OF options. Who knows, Eddie Rosario may be in the Twins outfield by the middle of next year too. Bullpen isn't a place to spend money.

So, it does all come down to Starting Pitchers... the question has to be asked, how many do you want, and how many current starters should be in the 2013 rotation. We know Correia will be. We'd like to think Gibson should be, or will be soon. There is hope that Alex Meyer woudln't be too far off. Will Deduno be healthy and has he earned a spot? I'd like a spot for guys like Diamond, Worley, Albers, Hendriks, to win. So, I see two spots.

Signing a name just to sign a name is never good. They could sign Johan Santana, and give him whatever contract they like, but he likely won't pitch much, certainly not until the second half. I'm good with going after a make-good pitcher like Lincecum, but at this point, he's just part of the crap shoot that is free agent starting pitching.

I'm not pretending to know what the answer is. I would rather trade for good arms than sign some #4s.

Signing a name to sign name would still be better than the Twins rotation.

troyhobbs
09-10-2013, 10:34 PM
Only question I would have is where are you going to spend the money? Don't want to spend big on 3B with Plouffe being there short-term and Sano likely up sometime before June. 2B isn't a need. 1B doesn't seem like a place to spend, especially if Mauer's going to be there. Outfield should include Hicks and Arcia sometime during the season, and Willingham is still going to be there with plenty of fourth OF options. Who knows, Eddie Rosario may be in the Twins outfield by the middle of next year too. Bullpen isn't a place to spend money.

So, it does all come down to Starting Pitchers... the question has to be asked, how many do you want, and how many current starters should be in the 2013 rotation. We know Correia will be. We'd like to think Gibson should be, or will be soon. There is hope that Alex Meyer woudln't be too far off. Will Deduno be healthy and has he earned a spot? I'd like a spot for guys like Diamond, Worley, Albers, Hendriks, to win. So, I see two spots.

Signing a name just to sign a name is never good. They could sign Johan Santana, and give him whatever contract they like, but he likely won't pitch much, certainly not until the second half. I'm good with going after a make-good pitcher like Lincecum, but at this point, he's just part of the crap shoot that is free agent starting pitching.

I'm not pretending to know what the answer is. I would rather trade for good arms than sign some #4s.

They could spend the money on 5 (or even 1 or 2) guys that give you a chance to win consistently and look at short term contracts to immediately improve any defensive positions. Depending on what they do with Mauer the only other position I'd say is locked down would be 2B so there's plenty of needs to throw money at. They're pretty crappy.

howieramone
09-10-2013, 10:34 PM
Many consider the Twins returning to be a proven contender as practically a done deal, the only questions being when, and how far will this rebuild take us. Are we going dominate the Central as we have in the past or with the help of the Gods of Baseball will we win another World Series title?

There is every appearance of 2 strong drafts in a row, and we are currently earning another high pick in what is being touted as a deep draft. Our efforts in the International market have given us Arcia, Pinto, and Sano, with every indication that the pipeline will continue.

I do believe Ryan will sign a high-profile name, but I don't see any real urgency until the winter of 2014/2015. No doubt they will be continuously looking, as always, between now and then. They will continue to make Butera and Morneau type trades, though far from sexy, will do a great deal towards shaping the team and adding the final pieces.

While many may consider The Twin's Way to be extremely risk-adverse, I believe it to be cold, calm, and calculated.

Wookiee of the Year
09-10-2013, 10:37 PM
Only question I would have is where are you going to spend the money? ...
Yeah, that's sort of the problem I see, too--it's unlikely all the Twins prospects will develop into great major leaguers, but at this point, you don't know for sure which ones will and which holes you'll have to fill. That makes 2014 a tougher year for signing a big Free Agent.

Obviously, the pitching rotation has room for improvement now. But I also worry some about signing a big pitcher deal when we're still multiple years from contention, what with the volatility of pitcher performance and health.

All of that said, I support the notion that the time is right to surpass the Willingham Contract with a new Biggest Twins FA Deal of All Time by signing a pitcher. I wouldn't personally count one such contract as the Twins going big this offseason, but coupled with a few high-upside signings like Johan and bringing in maybe one solid everyday player, the Twins might be able to push payroll up to at least this year's level.

cmb0252
09-10-2013, 10:39 PM
After reviewing the FA starting class for not only this year but next year I have to agree with Seth. The best way to acquire a top arm most likely will be via a trade. Whom? Not sure. Only top end names I have heard floated are Lee and Price.

I'm all for the Twins spending big, they really need to, but most of the "top arms" aren't exactly what you would normally call top arms. This quite possibly is the most sucky FA pitching class in 10 years. The only guy I personally really like is Tanaka.

howieramone
09-10-2013, 10:50 PM
After reviewing the FA starting class for not only this year but next year I have to agree with Seth. The best way to acquire a top arm most likely will be via a trade. Whom? Not sure. Only top end names I have heard floated are Lee and Price.

I'm all for the Twins spending big, they really need to, but most of the "top arms" aren't exactly what you would normally call top arms. This quite possibly is the most sucky FA pitching class in 10 years. The only guy I personally really like is Tanaka.

I agree. Tanaka is the prize. I would spent the 90M-110M if he checks out with our scouts.

Otwins
09-10-2013, 10:52 PM
Tanaka makes the most sense to me because he is 24 and he will most likely be looking for a longer term contract which means he will be here when the reinforcements arrive.

USAFChief
09-10-2013, 10:55 PM
Spend what it takes to win the Tanaka posting, and sign him.

Spend what it takes to sign Josh Johnson to a three year deal. You might get nothing. You might hit a home run.

Find one more cheap-ish reclamation project with upside, as opposed to low ceiling, low talent signings like Corriea.

There is "salary cap" space to do all of that, and more. And if it were me, and I could sign even more pitching, I would. I wouldn't give even a second thought to blocking any starters in 2014, including Gibson. If I could end up with five pitchers better than Gibson, so be it. If Correia can't crack the rotations, fantastic.

Seth Stohs
09-10-2013, 11:03 PM
My point isn't that they shouldn't sign a guy or two, but I think everyone needs to ask themselves how many starters they need (who from the current options WILL and how many do you think SHOULD be in the 2014 rotation or have a spot open to compete for). It's easy to say that others will be better, but will they be?

I mean, if Josh Johnson is healthy... I can't even finish that sentence... but he's a guy who has missed a lot of time 3 straight years and has not yet had any surgery. It's just a matter of time. So, I'd be fine with taking a chance on a guy like that, but I'd still want to be smart with the dollars because the odds of him being healthy are not good and that should factor in.

I like Ubaldo Jimenez because he can miss some bats, but how much is too much? It's easy to say sign him, but he's far from a sure thing as well. Lincecum is better than Jimenez, but he'll also get paid a lot more too.

Of the injury or struggled for a couple of years guys, maybe one of them will return to old form (maybe), one of them will be alright, and a couple of them will be injured or continue to struggle.

I'm not saying I'm right, and there are obviously a couple of examples of free agents who prove worthwhile, but it just feels to me like such a crap shoot. I thought signing Correia was terrible, and he's been pretty decent, surprisingly so. I thought Joe Blanton would be a good guy for the Twins to sign. Oops. I liked the idea of the Twins signing Liriano in the offseason, but I guarantee if the Twins would have signed him, most comments would have been upset.

That said, I'm NOT against the Twins spending some money wisely... I just know that with all of the young players on the roster, that's a lot of $500K players on the roster that automatically brings down the overall team salary.

Kwak
09-10-2013, 11:08 PM
I don't think they will make a big splash--unless you think re-signing Pelfrey to a 2-year contract a "splash". They will sift the discard bin just like last year to sign one SP. The Twins have an abundance of "SPs" who have "been there" to shuttle between Rochester and Minneapolis and will use the draft(s) to rebuild from the bottom-up. The plan is slow and steady. Experience has shown that attendance will bounce-back quickly if a contender is assembled. Twins fans have been way tolerant of losing (even for extended periods) and with a low payroll combined with the way generous revenue sharing of MLB makes slow and steady plan very profitable and safe.

Thrylos
09-10-2013, 11:08 PM
The Twins will spend, but I have zero confidence that they will spend the right way, instead of overpaying for mediocrity, with Ryan at the helm. He has never done it. Never.

I would not mind if the Twins spend $30 million a year for Tanaka and Abreu and Guerrero (that takes care of 1B and SS). Then they should spend another $20-30 for 2 top FA SP. Trade Willingham/Doumit/Correia. Give Sano every chance to win the 3B job in ST.

Then maybe they will have a competitive team.

But with the people who are ru(i)ning them these days, I just don't see it happening.

There are bigger fish to fry than spending: Changing the Front office and the field management is necessary before spending.

Alex
09-10-2013, 11:26 PM
Does anyone else think he possible increase in FA money available to everyone will drive salaries to the point where Ryan can't stomach it?

Alex
09-10-2013, 11:27 PM
I don't think they will make a big splash--unless you think re-signing Pelfrey to a 2-year contract a "splash". They will sift the discard bin just like last year to sign one SP. The Twins have an abundance of "SPs" who have "been there" to shuttle between Rochester and Minneapolis and will use the draft(s) to rebuild from the bottom-up. The plan is slow and steady. Experience has shown that attendance will bounce-back quickly if a contender is assembled. Twins fans have been way tolerant of losing (even for extended periods) and with a low payroll combined with the way generous revenue sharing of MLB makes slow and steady plan very profitable and safe.

Not a fan of the new slow and steady narrative I've seen pop up. It's possible to put an interesting team on the field without waiting a half decade or more. For prospects to mature.

howieramone
09-10-2013, 11:30 PM
The Twins will spend, but I have zero confidence that they will spend the right way, instead of overpaying for mediocrity, with Ryan at the helm. He has never done it. Never.

I would not mind if the Twins spend $30 million a year for Tanaka and Abreu and Guerrero (that takes care of 1B and SS). Then they should spend another $20-30 for 2 top FA SP. Trade Willingham/Doumit/Correia. Give Sano every chance to win the 3B job in ST.

Then maybe they will have a competitive team.

But with the people who are ru(i)ning them these days, I just don't see it happening.

There are bigger fish to fry than spending: Changing the Front office and the field management is necessary before spending.

Ryan isn't going anywhere and the parade starts in 19 months. Do you really believe the Pohlads are going to hire some cowboy who spends like a drunken sailor?

h2oface
09-11-2013, 12:02 AM
Ryan isn't going anywhere and the parade starts in 19 months. Do you really believe the Pohlads are going to hire some cowboy who spends like a drunken sailor?

Is a 100 million team salary spending, drunken? I don't think so.

h2oface
09-11-2013, 12:04 AM
The Twins will spend, but I have zero confidence that they will spend the right way, instead of overpaying for mediocrity, with Ryan at the helm. He has never done it. Never. ....................

There are bigger fish to fry than spending: Changing the Front office and the field management is necessary before spending.

Here here!!!!

clutterheart
09-11-2013, 12:10 AM
Lots of teams are going to have more money to spend. The Yankees are not going to like missing the playoffs this year. Boston has young talent coming up that will allow them to target some big names, Dodgers are the Dodgers, Pittsburgh is going to have money to spend if Burnett doesn't come back, KC has to keep their "all in" strategy going at this point and every other team is going to have that same new stream of TV money coming.

I highly doubt Ryan will participate in a bidding war. Past experience has shown us that Ryan puts a value on a certain guy and goes after the guy at that price - no matter what the market does.

What a mess.

beckmt
09-11-2013, 12:15 AM
Somewhat agree, but you also have to fill seats. Lincecum may have a qualifying offer, Johnson is a risk. All pitchers are risks, may you take a chance on Halliday for a 2-3 year offer. Would like Johnson, but that is a big risk, but has local ties and maybe could be had on a one or two year deal. 1/7 or 2/14. Would prefer 1 with options. Pelfrey wants to return and may only be about 5-6 million a year. Would be decent as a third signing. Want the minor league pitchers to earn there spots, not be given them.

Shane Wahl
09-11-2013, 12:19 AM
Tanaka and Garza are not going to be signed by the Twins
Linecum won't come to Minnesota
Burnett isn't leaving Pittsburgh

Plenty of remaining options are either old (Kuroda, Arroyo) or bad (Pelfrey) or injury-prone (Johnson).

Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes should be on the table.

NoCal
09-11-2013, 01:05 AM
Spending on free agents is, by definition, the riskiest and most expensive way to acquire players. The most over-valued assets in baseball today (IMO) are prospects. Nobody wants to give up their controlled, high upside prospects. So if you are willing to do so, (see Oakland A's), you may be able to acquire a real haul of good players, to fill many holes, and accelerate your path to contention. The A's got a lot for Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, etc - which of the Twins blue chippers would you be willing to trade to upgrade the starting rotation? Would you travel the road blazed by the Royals?

howieramone
09-11-2013, 01:27 AM
Spending on free agents is, by definition, the riskiest and most expensive way to acquire players. The most over-valued assets in baseball today (IMO) are prospects. Nobody wants to give up their controlled, high upside prospects. So if you are willing to do so, (see Oakland A's), you may be able to acquire a real haul of good players, to fill many holes, and accelerate your path to contention. The A's got a lot for Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, etc - which of the Twins blue chippers would you be willing to trade to upgrade the starting rotation? Would you travel the road blazed by the Royals?

I think in the long run you are probably right. At this point in time we do not have an excess of blue chippers. What I can see happening is packaging a major league relief pitcher with a lower level, A+ or AA bat, to get a starting pitching prospect our scouts recommend. I think you're right but at least a year early. Good post.

freshinthehouse
09-11-2013, 04:01 AM
Spend to get Tanaka and Abreu. Please.

Oxtung
09-11-2013, 04:55 AM
Spending on free agents is, by definition, the riskiest and most expensive way to acquire players. The most over-valued assets in baseball today (IMO) are prospects. Nobody wants to give up their controlled, high upside prospects. So if you are willing to do so, (see Oakland A's), you may be able to acquire a real haul of good players, to fill many holes, and accelerate your path to contention. The A's got a lot for Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, etc - which of the Twins blue chippers would you be willing to trade to upgrade the starting rotation? Would you travel the road blazed by the Royals?

Neither Cahill or Gonzalez were prospects when they were traded by Oakland. Both had already pitched multiple years, been All-Stars, and had low 3 ERA's. Nothing about those trades were similar to the situation the Twins currently find themselves in.

Oxtung
09-11-2013, 05:00 AM
I'm would love for the Twins to go in on Tanaka. Sign Johnson, sure! I think Dan Haren would be a great second or third signing.

I think the Twins will stay away from anybody attached to draft pick compensation, and I'm not sure they're wrong. If they do however decide it is worth a draft pick to sign one player, then they better go all in and sign another 1 or 2 players with compensation as well (assuming they are the best pitchers available, which seems likely). Giving up a 3rd or 4th round pick would be worthwhile for Ervin Santana, for instance.

Jack Torse
09-11-2013, 05:29 AM
Get back to me when for the first time they sign a single meaningful player where they had to outbid other teams. Like a meaningful player before Xmas. Delusional.

TheLeviathan
09-11-2013, 06:26 AM
I appreciate the effort by Nick, but there were similar arguments to be made last year too. Until we actually do it, skepticism is really the only justifiable position.

Frankly, this is more about Ryan's principles than it is about circumstances.

Joe A. Preusser
09-11-2013, 06:34 AM
Don't lose sight of the goal here: A return to relevance.
The Twins can compete in 2015 and beyond by only adding 2 quality arms. They don't even have to be true number 1s, they can both be 2s. Our in house options for SP will fill out 3-5 just fine. By FA or trade we MUST add those two quality SP over the next two offseasons. The rest will fall into place easily. Ryan (hell, even I could) can put an offense together around Sano, Arcia, Buxton, et al very easily. The BP is set. Those two great starting pitchers are the key, and a GM as savvy as Ryan knows it.

MichiganTwins
09-11-2013, 07:13 AM
I agree that are situation is much better than last year. I also think that the Twins are going to spend. I just dont want to have to see PJ Walters pitching in the majors for the Twins. I dont think signing Pelfrey does all that much for us. I think Phil Hughes would be good, and then I think we should take a risk on Kazmir or Ubaldo or Johnson.

Also, Seth which pitchers do I think deserve a shot? Gibson needs to have a spot for sure. Correia has a spot whether we like it or not, Diamond should compete as well as Deduno (only because he got hurt) I am uncertain if Hendriks should be given a shot to start, Worley needs to earn the shot at having a shot to compete, and I not sold on Albers (he is a mystery of what he can bring to the major league table. Also, Meyer and hopefully May might be in our rotation next year. I think we need to give one of our in house optiuons a shot while we wait for either of those two. So you could still have room for two FA pitchers and maybe throw in a third risky one to compete with the in house options.

As for positions, I really dont see the necessity to spend money. Cather we are fine. 1b could be a place to upgrade depending on how much Mauer plays and the Parmalee/Colabello situation. 2b is good. 3b can be held my PLouffe in the off-season and even into the season while we wait for the fast approaching Sano. So no need there. SS- I think Florimon has been pretty decent obviously we want him to hit a bit more, but his defense has been good. We can always use an upgrade there. However, the free agent market is not very good at SS and we cant forget the Cuban may not be able to stick at short. OF- Well we have a crap ton of OFers. Buxton is coming up soon so we dont really have the option of a long term deal. We have Arcia and Hicks who should be in the lineup everyday soon. The hammer is hopefully heating up and can DH too or play left. We have a million 4th OFers. So I do not see a huge need there either. Bullpen is fine and we have guys who can be called up too.

So it has to be SP, and it seems to me that this team could be decently competitive if we sign a couple good SPs, who can at least keep us in the game. The future looks really good, but we need to start winning more games and I think we need to spend in FA now because in the next few years we will be paying a lot for our young stars.

pierre75275
09-11-2013, 07:22 AM
Going after Linsicoum (sp?) wont happen if the Giants give him a quality offer...which they most likely will do. I dont see much of a point in going after oft injured pitchers like johnson and haren and santana hoping they will save the franchise. See rich harden and joel zumya. That enterprise is usually fruitless. Go after Tanka make a run at Abreu mayb sign one of Hughes Johnson or one of the Santanas plus tanka. If we cant land Abreu sign the current Pirates first baseman...I heard he isnt too bad and has ties to MN.

Alex
09-11-2013, 07:29 AM
With regard to qualifying offers and draft picks: The Twins first round pick would be protected. So, if the Twins could get a lower risk higher upside player that could help them now and in a couple of years when they are more competitive, it might be worth looking at. I'm not sure Lincecum is that guy, but I'd definitely keep that option open.

Thrylos
09-11-2013, 07:39 AM
Spending on free agents is, by definition, the riskiest and most expensive way to acquire players. The most over-valued assets in baseball today (IMO) are prospects. Nobody wants to give up their controlled, high upside prospects. So if you are willing to do so, (see Oakland A's), you may be able to acquire a real haul of good players, to fill many holes, and accelerate your path to contention. The A's got a lot for Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, etc - which of the Twins blue chippers would you be willing to trade to upgrade the starting rotation? Would you travel the road blazed by the Royals?

The A's won exactly as many world series as the Royals the last 15 years and have been about as competitive. The Royals are spendthrift (overspending for mediocrity) and not really spending. Ryan would fit right in...

I'd look at the Rangers, Red Sox and Tigers more as models than the As. You look at successful teams not mediocre teams as models if you want to succeed above mediocrity. The Twins have been blessed with a lot of mediocrity the past decade before they moved on to suckage

jay
09-11-2013, 08:04 AM
I've made this argument in a few places and this topic was about to be my first blog post. Thank you for sparing everyone, Nick. Nice article.

mike wants wins
09-11-2013, 08:08 AM
The As signed a Cuban for millions and millions, by the way....

1. DH, they have none, you can sign a Cuban for that, he can also play 1B when mauer is not.
2. Ellsbury (since Seth asked where else can they spend money)....Hicks can't hit, Arcia can't field, and besides, they have the money and he's a 4-5 WAR player. Put him in LF when Buxton is up, and you have an Elite defense. It's not like having 4 good OFers (or maybe only 3) is a BAD idea.
3. Tanaka, since they have no other obligations, spending any amount of money is probably worth it to this team, indeed, he's worth more to this team than most other teams.

Oh, and Nick forgot to add (I think) that they get $25MM more in revenue next year, so even going to last year's number would put them behind last year's number, in effect.

But ya, until RYAN spends money, I won't believe he'll spend money. It wasn't the dome, because McPhail had no issue spending money in the dome.

jay
09-11-2013, 08:21 AM
Until we actually do it, skepticism is really the only justifiable position.


But ya, until RYAN spends money, I won't believe he'll spend money. It wasn't the dome, because McPhail had no issue spending money in the dome.

These aren't terribly unreasonable positions to take, but Nick lays out a pretty good case for why that won't be. Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 08:23 AM
The A's won exactly as many world series as the Royals the last 15 years and have been about as competitive.

Are you really saying that the As and Royals have been about the same competitively over the last 15 years? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?

USAFChief
09-11-2013, 08:31 AM
These aren't terribly unreasonable positions to take, but Nick lays out a pretty good case for why that won't be. Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?
Not to speak for others, but I think "not terribly unreasonable" undersells their positions by a lot.

"TR has never done it" is quite reasonable at this point, IMO. In fact, I'd go so far as to say its what I expect.

jay
09-11-2013, 08:35 AM
Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?


Not to speak for others, but I think "not terribly unreasonable" undersells their positions by a lot.

"TR has never done it" is quite reasonable at this point, IMO. In fact, I'd go so far as to say its what I expect.

So.... no?

Winston Smith
09-11-2013, 08:42 AM
"Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?"

Isn't the reverse the real question? Is there anything that Ryan has ever done to support the idea that suddenly he will spend money?

jay
09-11-2013, 08:45 AM
"Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?"

Isn't the reverse the real question? Is there anything that Ryan has ever done to support the idea that suddenly he will spend money?

The ideas laid out in the article that this thread is attached to?

You're correct that he hasn't done anything yet, but the whole premise is to show why the scenario isn't the same. I'll be happy to eat crow if payroll is $50m next year, but I just don't see how that'll be.

Winston Smith
09-11-2013, 08:54 AM
The ideas laid out in the article that this thread is attached to?

How do the ideas in the article translate into action likely taken by Ryan when Ryan has never acted that way before?

It may be that Ryan will change his ways this winter, but what is more likely he stays the course and continues doing what he has for 15 years or suddenly change how he operates?

jay
09-11-2013, 09:01 AM
How do the ideas in the article translate into action likely taken by Ryan when Ryan has never acted that way before?

It may be that Ryan will change his ways this winter, but what is more likely he stays the course and continues doing what he has for 15 years or suddenly change how he operates?

So again, is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'? If the answer is no -- that's perfectly fine, and you're entitled to that opinion. Factually, the only way payroll isn't $50m (or in that range) next year is for Ryan to do things differently either through free agency, the int'l market, or taking on salary in trade. I think it has to happen.

Badsmerf
09-11-2013, 09:03 AM
This is a make or break offseason for Terry Ryan. He has the ability to spend money and improve the club and there is talent available to do it. If he fails, he has to be fired. There is no other option. I'm hopeful, but at the same time have pretty low expectations. I'm ok if he fails and is fired, I'm not a fan of his one bit (I actually think he is a pretty terrible GM).

Looking at youtube of Tanaka, he looks alright. I have to wonder if his control of the FB is good enough to succeed in the MLB. Darvish was a different type of pitcher, which why he has succeeded so much. I'd much rather get guys like Lincecum that have shown success and might just need a little change to return to form.

nicksaviking
09-11-2013, 09:04 AM
I also think the ulcers it would cause him will keep Ryan from the bidding wars on the bigger (medium) named free agents. I suppose it's my nature to believe in historical trends as opposed to hope and faith.

But perhaps he could get a pitcher through trade. Ryan does have a history of this in the off season.

One trade came to mind, does everyone think CC Sabathia is completely washed up? He's owed about $100 million over the next four years including a 2017 vesting option. If the Yankees want to clear some payroll so they can both stay under the luxery tax threshhold AND retain Robinson Cano, it's reasonable to think a buyer likely could get the Yankees to eat around half of that salary if the Yankees become motivated to move him.

He's big, he's fat but he's still only 33 and only one year removed from seven consecutive years of an ERA+ of 125 or more. If he was on the free agent lists, he would likely still be near the top.

Boom Boom
09-11-2013, 09:12 AM
It's true that Ryan will have a lot of money to work with... but I'll believe it when I see it. I could see potentially another trade for a pitching prospect, and another Pelfrey-type signing, but I've been a Twins fan for too long to believe that Ryan will sign a starting pitcher who is better than a Correia or Pavano.

OldTwinky
09-11-2013, 09:17 AM
When someone shows you who they are, believe them. Jim Pohlad, Terry Ryan, Dave St. Peter and the rest of the people controlling the Twins have shown us exactly who they are and that's why my educated guess is that they won't bring in any expensive/game changing players via free agency. It'll be more AAAA players that have washed out in their previous org. and low walk no stuff having starting pitchers. It's ALWAYS the same thing with Terry Ryan.

Jim Crikket
09-11-2013, 09:18 AM
Nick, I think you've laid out a good case for why the Twins SHOULD do something different this offseason, but I'm with those who don't feel you've convinced me it WILL happen. Many of us have made similar cases every year for the past three or so as to why pitching needs to be shored up and why there's plenty of room in the budget to do so.

I expect Ryan to see things the way Seth laid out... that there are young, inexpensive options and reason to believe one or more of them will step up their game. That being the case, TR will not see any reason to get in a bidding contest for what he sees as marginal SP talent.

I also think Tanaka is getting so much support here primarily because none of us have actually seen him pitch so nobody has picked up his "flaws" the way we have with guys we've all watched pitch for years.

I fully expect the Twins payroll to drop significantly and remain that way until the next wave of internal prospects start hitting arbitration and FA levels, several years from now.

Alex
09-11-2013, 09:19 AM
These aren't terribly unreasonable positions to take, but Nick lays out a pretty good case for why that won't be. Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?


People (Seth was the earliest) have laid out other reasons that have nothing to do with TR. for example, in a lot of positions of need, the Twins have young players that are close or near ready. One position of need, 1B, may need to be kept open for Mauer.

pierre75275
09-11-2013, 09:21 AM
With regard to qualifying offers and draft picks: The Twins first round pick would be protected. So, if the Twins could get a lower risk higher upside player that could help them now and in a couple of years when they are more competitive, it might be worth looking at. I'm not sure Lincecum is that guy, but I'd definitely keep that option open.

Was not aware of that. Is that for one time only or can they sign multiple free agents with qualifying offers? Would they have to give up a later rd pick?

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 09:27 AM
The ideas laid out in the article that this thread is attached to?

You're correct that he hasn't done anything yet, but the whole premise is to show why the scenario isn't the same. I'll be happy to eat crow if payroll is $50m next year, but I just don't see how that'll be.

So, 50M is where you draw the line? Why that number? If payroll is at 60M, that somehow backs up your thinking? It'd be a dropoff of another 20M off this year's payroll before even taking into account the extra 25M coming in.

USAFChief
09-11-2013, 09:29 AM
So.... no?
I sincerely hope to be proven gloriously wrong and will gladly proclaim so.:p

zenser
09-11-2013, 09:29 AM
I like the idea Mike Wants Wins suggests with Ellsbury. If Hicks does hit at some point in time, then you could always trade someone not named Buxton. I know there are some mid level starting pitchers out there and I would be ok with Hughes and Tanaka. I am not high on Josh Johnson but if he comes cheap and we sign one or two other pitchers, I could stomach the risk. I just don't want him to be the only SP signing.

Are the Twins content with Florimon as SS? Stephen Drew is available and Peralta. Personally, I am not a big fan of Peralta and I don't think they will touch him but he is a decent fielder and a better offensive upgrade. Drew interests me the most if they look to upgrade SS.

TheLeviathan
09-11-2013, 09:47 AM
So.... no?

Historical trends are pretty compelling. Certainly more so than hypothetical scenario building. I hope it happens, but please don't portray sensible hypotheticals as anything more than that.

Monkeypaws
09-11-2013, 10:01 AM
I agree. Tanaka is the prize. I would spent the 90M-110M if he checks out with our scouts.

I hope they aren't the same scouts that worked on Nishi....

Alex
09-11-2013, 10:03 AM
Was not aware of that. Is that for one time only or can they sign multiple free agents with qualifying offers? Would they have to give up a later rd pick?

Not sure how multiples work, but because they pick in the top 10 they lose a 2nd Rd pick instead.

Nick Nelson
09-11-2013, 10:05 AM
I get really tired of hearing the "Twins won't compete until 2015 so there's no point in spending" refrain. Just a loser's mentality that I pray Terry Ryan does not share.

Someone convince me that this could not be a decent team next year if the Twins got lucky on a couple FA starters. You add, say, an effective Ervin Santana + Ubaldo Jimenez on top of Gibson, Diamond (or whichever guy rises) and Correia (who is at some point hopefully replaced by Meyer) and you've got a rotation that could compete. They've already got a solid bullpen and I think an offense led by Mauer, Arcia, Sano, Willingham, Dozier and eventually Buxton can certainly do the job.


Not to speak for others, but I think "not terribly unreasonable" undersells their positions by a lot.

"TR has never done it" is quite reasonable at this point, IMO. In fact, I'd go so far as to say its what I expect.
This is totally fair, but I'd also note that we're looking at a unique situation so past precedence does not necessarily apply. When have the Twins ever been so far below their projected spending cap with salary commitments? Failing to sign at least one or two significant players would be like trotting out a $25M payroll in the Metrodome days.

Nick Nelson
09-11-2013, 10:06 AM
Also, free agency is certainly filled with risk but it is not a "crap shoot." Some guys are definitively more likely to succeed than others and the Twins' front office is filled with people whose job it is to make those evaluations. If the folks in charge don't have faith in their ability to invest wisely, why are they in charge?

jun
09-11-2013, 10:30 AM
The Twins could add a power hitter with a good avg and one or two starters. If they don't bring Morneau back, they need someone to replace him in the lineup. Correia, Albers, Deduno (if he's healthy) should be in the rotation. They could sign Pelfrey for another one year deal. That would leave one vacant spot in the rotation.

diehardtwinsfan
09-11-2013, 10:33 AM
Like others have said, there's no question the circumstances are different, but there's a history here that makes me skeptical as well. Looking at the next wave, signing to sign is silly as you and others have said. You won't want to block a prospect. We have 3 really good OF prospects right now in Arcia, Hicks, and Buxton with a marginal one in Pressley that could potentially have upside, so I wouldn't sign an OF. 2B looks good and C is pretty much set too. 3B has Sano coming up, so you don't want to block him. The pen is pretty solid too, both here and in the pipeline. That leaves SP, which has some nice prospects in Meyer, Gibson, and May and quite a few marginal ones (Darnel, Worley, Hendricks, Baxendale, etc.).

Where we are week is 1B/DH/SS/SP in my opinion. If Dozier is for real and Rosario is too, you might be able to solve SS and move Dozier back, but beyond that, I don't see enough help to solve these positions. That said I personally would go all out with the 1 or 2 targeted signings at the young guy who could provide above average production at these positions (Abreau or Tanaka are the ones that come to mind right now). I really don't care if they do one guy, but I'd much rather them fork out the money for one of them to shore that up then to sign a bunch of lower upside guys as they've done in years past. Is it risky? Yes. Will this one contract cripple the team? Not really, but personally I'd rather do that than go after the Lincecums, Johnsons, or the Santanas of the world. There's a ton more risk there and in some cases, much less upside (which is why they will be cheaper).

That said, I'm not convinced they will do it. I hold out some hope for Tanaka, b/c all they have to do is win the posting fee to get sole permission to negotiate with him, but like others said, there's history here... and I'm not comfortable with it.

mike wants wins
09-11-2013, 10:40 AM
The Twins could add a power hitter with a good avg and one or two starters. If they don't bring Morneau back, they need someone to replace him in the lineup. Correia, Albers, Deduno (if he's healthy) should be in the rotation. They could sign Pelfrey for another one year deal. That would leave one vacant spot in the rotation.

Yuck, that would be a disaster of a staff. I'm not sure why anyone likes this idea, frankly.

Nick is right, they could be competitive next year. Tanaka turns out to be a 3, Gibson turns out to be a 3, Sano plays 2/3 of a year, Ellsbury adds 4-6 WAR over Hicks from this year....you get 10-15 more wins right there, then with a full year of Arcia, not a disaster from Willingham, a full year of good Dozier..... It takes money and courage. That doesn't count Abreu, or a 2nd FA starting pitcher.

howieramone
09-11-2013, 10:42 AM
I get really tired of hearing the "Twins won't compete until 2015 so there's no point in spending" refrain. Just a loser's mentality that I pray Terry Ryan does not share.

Someone convince me that this could not be a decent team next year if the Twins got lucky on a couple FA starters. You add, say, an effective Ervin Santana + Ubaldo Jimenez on top of Gibson, Diamond (or whichever guy rises) and Correia (who is at some point hopefully replaced by Meyer) and you've got a rotation that could compete. They've already got a solid bullpen and I think an offense led by Mauer, Arcia, Sano, Willingham, Dozier and eventually Buxton can certainly do the job.


This is totally fair, but I'd also note that we're looking at a unique situation so past precedence does not necessarily apply. When have the Twins ever been so far below their projected spending cap with salary commitments? Failing to sign at least one or two significant players would be like trotting out a $25M payroll in the Metrodome days.

The Twins will compete in 2014, but they won't go for the jugular like Kansas City, by trading Buxton or Sano. If Ryan finds value, no doubt he will spend this off season.

Many posters have discussed what Terry Ryan has never done. What millions of loyal Twins fans remember most is, Ryan has never failed at rebuilding the Twins.

Shane Wahl
09-11-2013, 10:46 AM
I get a little scared (no, more than a little scared) when I start seeing people talk about the Twins going after any FA who aren't starting pitchers. All efforts and all that sweet, sweet Pohlad money needs to go to starting pitchers on the market first. Wait until 2015? Why? It would be nice to not sign anyone to a mere one-year deal this offseason so that they are still around in 2015, sure.

As far as first base goes . . . Mauer is going to get ample time there. Parmelee and Colabello can platoon the rest of the time (by the way, Colabello's power doesn't seem to be going anywhere so he could fairly easily provide double digit bombs next year even in a limited role).

I have to think that Rosario isn't going to be with the Twins until June at the earliest, so they can still role out Florimon and Dozier and have that excellent defense in place. After that, working a Rosario/Dozier platoon (don't start with me USAChief . . . . .!) for a bit to get Rosario acclimated in June and July isn't such a bad thought either. And Dozier can either move over to SS (????) or Rosario can DH a bit, or Dozier can backup at SS and 3B (????) when not playing 2B. And DH? Well, even if Willingham and Doumit are gone, there are other bats like Pinto's, Colabello's Arcia's, Mauer's, and Plouffe's to put there.

So . . . back to that dang starting pitching . . .

nicksaviking
09-11-2013, 10:50 AM
The Twins will compete in 2014, but they won't go for the jugular like Kansas City, by trading Buxton or Sano. If Ryan finds value, no doubt he will spend this off season.

Many posters have discussed what Terry Ryan has never done. What millions of loyal Twins fans remember most is, Ryan has never failed at rebuilding the Twins.

You must not have been following the Twins during the first rebuild attempt from 1995-1998. That was a disaster. So he's basically 1-1 when it comes to rebuilds, not exactly proof positive he will succeed in his third attempt.

StormJH1
09-11-2013, 10:50 AM
I actually think I agree with Nick's underlying premise, which is that the Twins are more interested in spending than we think they are. But I think they had that same attitude LAST offseason, as well. The problem is that they show up to these negotiations with a late 90's perspective on what players should cost, and there's always at least one other team that's willing to overpay.

That being said, of the "mid-tier" starting pitching options from last season, how many of them actually would've been a significant help? Anibal Sanchez re-signed fairly quickly, and ended up getting more "elite" money than people expected. I guess Jeremy Guthrie and Brandon McCarthy have been okay, but neither of them would've been a clear-cut "ace", even on this lackluster staff. The chances of at least one of Deduno, Gibson, Hendriks, etc. emerging and giving you that same exact production for FAR less money is always going to appeal to the Twins over free agency, and probably rightfully so.

There's really no "half measure" solution to a bad pitching staff. Either you spend $80 million+ to buy a top-tier pitcher, or you wait until you develop them yourself. Otherwise, you're just perpetually adding replacement level crap.

jay
09-11-2013, 10:55 AM
So, 50M is where you draw the line? Why that number? If payroll is at 60M, that somehow backs up your thinking? It'd be a dropoff of another 20M off this year's payroll before even taking into account the extra 25M coming in.

That's a fair point. I used 'range' later because of that. Although I wouldn't support it, it's easy to see the possibility of a further drop from this year. Even getting to a floor of $60M or $70m would require that $10-20m go somewhere.


Historical trends are pretty compelling. Certainly more so than hypothetical scenario building. I hope it happens, but please don't portray sensible hypotheticals as anything more than that.

I think we all hope it happens, I'm just trying to acknowledge that things look a little different and have something stronger than the same hope we went into last off-season with.

Jim Crikket
09-11-2013, 10:58 AM
I think most of us have some level of confidence that the rebuild will be at least moderately successful at some point.

Some of us, however, see no reason why fans should have to wait several more years to see any success at all while that internal rebuild is taking place. "Because that's the way TR has always done it," is not a good reason to accept it. However, it's a pretty compelling reason to expect it.

Alex
09-11-2013, 11:05 AM
The Twins will compete in 2014, but they won't go for the jugular like Kansas City, by trading Buxton or Sano. If Ryan finds value, no doubt he will spend this off season.

Many posters have discussed what Terry Ryan has never done. What millions of loyal Twins fans remember most is, Ryan has never failed at rebuilding the Twins.

If by success we mean basically doing nothing and waiting (mostly) for prospects that were acquired by someone else with a half decade or more of time between competitive seasons, I agree. He'll probably succeed.

Rick Niedermann
09-11-2013, 11:09 AM
I hope they go all in on Tanaka. He's the only FA pitcher that would excite me. But it will never happen. So we may as well get used to the re-treads like Pelfrey and Corriea. And hope that Meyer, May and Gibson actually develop into the pitchers they have been hyped to be.

John Bonnes
09-11-2013, 11:16 AM
The Twins payroll, if they don't sign anyone this offseason, will be about $60M. That's assuming they don't trade away Doumit/Parmelee/Burton/Perkins and they bring back arb-eligible guys like Plouffe/Duensing/Swarzak/Roenicke. It does not include bringing back free agents like Pelfrey.

If you take out the money that the Twins didn't pay Morneau/Carroll/Butera but keep the committments to Nishioka/Blackburn, the Twins spent just under $80M this year.

Per Cott's, that's down from $100M the year before and $113M in 2011. The last time the Twins had a payroll below $60M was back in 2008.

I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day. If you think the Twins are going to spend $30M on the free agent market, the means you're looking at the Twins raising payroll by $10M next year to $90M.

And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.

TheLeviathan
09-11-2013, 11:24 AM
I think we all hope it happens, I'm just trying to acknowledge that things look a little different and have something stronger than the same hope we went into last off-season with.

The scenario is different, the man making the calls is not. As I said, I think this is far more about Ryan's principles. Guess we will see what kind of flexibility they allow.

Nick Nelson
09-11-2013, 11:32 AM
And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.
It probably gets you one above-average pitcher and one decent lotto ticket. And, without looking too deeply, I have to presume that $80M would still be well, well below the stated "51% of revenue" payroll baseline.

Alex
09-11-2013, 11:34 AM
The Twins payroll, if they don't sign anyone this offseason, will be about $60M. That's assuming they don't trade away Doumit/Parmelee/Burton/Perkins and they bring back arb-eligible guys like Plouffe/Duensing/Swarzak/Roenicke. It does not include bringing back free agents like Pelfrey.

If you take out the money that the Twins didn't pay Morneau/Carroll/Butera but keep the committments to Nishioka/Blackburn, the Twins spent just under $80M this year.

Per Cott's, that's down from $100M the year before and $113M in 2011. The last time the Twins had a payroll below $60M was back in 2008.

I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day. If you think the Twins are going to spend $30M on the free agent market, the means you're looking at the Twins raising payroll by $10M next year to $90M.

And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.

I think the payroll for next year drop by 5-10 million but it's possible it will drop by $15M. At most, I imagine the Twins signing a decent FA and one or two journeymen types, but I wouldn't be surprised if their signings ar similar to last season. When combined with possible trades of veterans, I don't see the payroll even close to holding steady.


I do hope I'm wrong.

Boom Boom
09-11-2013, 11:55 AM
I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day.

$70 mil. One more Correia-type and a Pelfrey-type injury reclamation project or two.

John Bonnes
09-11-2013, 11:59 AM
And, without looking too deeply, I have to presume that $80M would still be well, well below the stated "51% of revenue" payroll baseline.

I would agree with that. It seems like it would be closer to $100M. I'd want to break down that analysis a little, but off the top of my head, that seems more likely.

Dman
09-11-2013, 12:14 PM
I don't think think TR is going to spend on FA's. He might try for Tanaka but only if he doesn't have to over pay in a bidding war. I agree with others that he will either trade for pitching or essentially use what he has on the farm. I really think the plan is to build from within through the draft. I don't think he cares how much money the Twins have to spend he is going to stick with that plan. I think this is a typical. A's, Pittsburgh, Royals, Houston type rebuild. Be bad, build up the farm, make some trades. Hopefully in time be good for several years with farm replenishing key players as you inevitably lose some over time. Personally I don't think TR believes FA is an efficient way to build your team and he is apparently willing to live or die with that philosophy. He likely will not sign a large FA contract this year but I hope he proves me wrong.

jay
09-11-2013, 12:42 PM
What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?

PseudoSABR
09-11-2013, 12:48 PM
Though it was a decade ago, TR has acquired expensive-ish starting pitching with Kenny Rogers and Rick Reed (and though we'd prefer them not to sign those type of guys), and that was to supplement already competitive teams. However, things are different now, with more windfall of cash and more legitimate prospect core emerging, the Twins probably have an imperative to spend money and perhaps take more risks. I'm fine with nearly any pitcher as long as the deal is no longer than three years (save Tanaka); the deals would be short enough that they shouldn't interfere with paying the emerging core. Payroll will be low enough that it might be worth the risk to acquire tradeable assets whether we are actually competitive in 2014 or not.

twinsnorth49
09-11-2013, 12:56 PM
What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRs7F2VD87OCWhP5pKc4SH_MmXbSrXIJ 7taL5JWA6fXzjjq9qB0mA

Sorry, couldn't resist, I just think it's about this likely.

PseudoSABR
09-11-2013, 12:56 PM
What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?That could very well be their plan, but if they fail to net Tanaka, it would be a failed use of resources, for sure.

howieramone
09-11-2013, 01:06 PM
What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?The Twin's organization has unlimited gold. Ryan has said on numerous occasions anytime he has gone to the Pohlads with a special request to improve the ball club, he has always got their approval. The only thing that constrains Ryan is getting value for the money spent. Those of us who are unfortunate enough to be in an employer-employee relationship can probably relate to this.

The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such. I'm sure Ryan thinks about it as often as he does where Joe Benson happens to be.

Winston Smith
09-11-2013, 01:14 PM
The Twins payroll, if they don't sign anyone this offseason, will be about $60M. That's assuming they don't trade away Doumit/Parmelee/Burton/Perkins and they bring back arb-eligible guys like Plouffe/Duensing/Swarzak/Roenicke. It does not include bringing back free agents like Pelfrey.

If you take out the money that the Twins didn't pay Morneau/Carroll/Butera but keep the committments to Nishioka/Blackburn, the Twins spent just under $80M this year.

Per Cott's, that's down from $100M the year before and $113M in 2011. The last time the Twins had a payroll below $60M was back in 2008.

I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day. If you think the Twins are going to spend $30M on the free agent market, the means you're looking at the Twins raising payroll by $10M next year to $90M.

And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.

My worst guess is that he will sign 2 pitchers in the Kazmir/Hughes mold spend about 15 and the patroll will end up about 70m.

A questions somewhat related did Ryan spend all the Int. singing money he was allowed?

Alex
09-11-2013, 01:16 PM
The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such. I'm sure Ryan thinks about it as often as he does where Joe Benson happens to be.

I believe they are getting that number from and interview and direct quote from the Twins organization, so it's probably a guideline for Ryan.

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 01:46 PM
The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such.

Jim Pohlad said that is supposed to be goal in most years about 3 years ago. That was hardly long ago. But yeah, now that they have the mostly publicly funded new ballpark, and they are reaping the benefits of it, I guess there is no need to live up to their end of the bargain. I mean, they said they needed the new ballpark in order to keep competitive financially with payroll...that was their main reason they told the public as to why they needed a new park. With where payroll is now, they are under 2007 payroll (which occurred while in the dome) when taking into account inflation...and baseball players pay has hardly just matched inflation. Next year, it will be even lower. Why did they need a new mostly publically funded ballpark again? Other than to get a huge boost on how much the team was worth?

And why are some fans so eager to just excuse/justify the lack of spending as if there wasn't an inherent agreement between the Pohlads and the public? Your post makes it seem like it's okay with you for them to stay lower than the 50%, not only in rebuilding years, but all the time.

nicksaviking
09-11-2013, 02:04 PM
The Twin's organization has unlimited gold. Ryan has said on numerous occasions anytime he has gone to the Pohlads with a special request to improve the ball club, he has always got their approval. The only thing that constrains Ryan is getting value for the money spent. Those of us who are unfortunate enough to be in an employer-employee relationship can probably relate to this.

What does this mean, you're sleeping with your boss? What on earth does this have to do with the Twins 2014 payroll?



The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such. I'm sure Ryan thinks about it as often as he does where Joe Benson happens to be.

So the Twins are backing out of this stated but non-binding agreement and they are to be applauded?

howieramone
09-11-2013, 02:26 PM
Jim Pohlad said that is supposed to be goal in most years about 3 years ago. That was hardly long ago. But yeah, now that they have the mostly publicly funded new ballpark, and they are reaping the benefits of it, I guess there is no need to live up to their end of the bargain. I mean, they said they needed the new ballpark in order to keep competitive financially with payroll...that was their main reason they told the public as to why they needed a new park. With where payroll is now, they are under 2007 payroll (which occurred while in the dome) when taking into account inflation...and baseball players pay has hardly just matched inflation. Next year, it will be even lower. Why did they need a new mostly publically funded ballpark again? Other than to get a huge boost on how much the team was worth?

And why are some fans so eager to just excuse/justify the lack of spending as if there wasn't an inherent agreement between the Pohlads and the public? Your post makes it seem like it's okay with you for them to stay lower than the 50%, not only in rebuilding years, but all the time.

They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

Alex
09-11-2013, 02:35 PM
They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

Or you can be a fan regardless and share your frustrations about the way the team is run.

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 02:39 PM
They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

What they CAN or CAN'T do isn't in question. They CAN eventually bring this payroll down to 50M or lower if they want to. You seem to have this idea that in order to be fans we just have to accept anything Twins ownership/management does or doesn't do. That doesn't fly. I believe most people will tell you they expect people to live up to their word...even more so when it involves money...even more so when it involves a huge amount of money. If you don't expect that, that's certainly your choice...but you probably shouldn't expect most people to think the same way.

DJL44
09-11-2013, 02:55 PM
Why will they spend more money? Because they make more in the long term when they win than when they lose.

LaBombo
09-11-2013, 03:13 PM
Though it was a decade ago, TR has acquired expensive-ish starting pitching with Kenny Rogers and Rick Reed (and though we'd prefer them not to sign those type of guys), and that was to supplement already competitive teams. However, things are different now, with more windfall of cash and more legitimate prospect core emerging, the Twins probably have an imperative to spend money and perhaps take more risks. I'm fine with nearly any pitcher as long as the deal is no longer than three years (save Tanaka); the deals would be short enough that they shouldn't interfere with paying the emerging core. Payroll will be low enough that it might be worth the risk to acquire tradeable assets whether we are actually competitive in 2014 or not.
Not even then, really. Rogers cost only $2 million in his only year here, was wasn't much even back then. Reed cost an average of only $1.5 million more in his 2 years here than the guy he was traded for, Matt Lawton. So Ryan really only added an average of less than 2 million per year in payroll for a year of Rogers and two years of Reed.

Pretty much agree with the max deal length of 3 years. There will probably be a few guys who command a longer deal, like Ervin Santana, but it's hard to see the Twins going after that kind of signing anyway.

twinsnorth49
09-11-2013, 03:19 PM
They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

You're right, who cares about integrity and honesty, this is America, lying is much more profitable.

Does choosing to be a fan mean I relinquish my right to be critical when it is merited?

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 03:23 PM
The upcoming core won't be due significant pay raises until around 2018...if even then...assuming they are even worthy of significantly high salaries by then (or ever) to begin with. 2018 just so happens to be the last year of Mauer's contract. Limiting our spending to just three year contracts this upcoming offseason, in order to pay for our players we are just hoping will be good enough to be worth a large salary, doesn't make much sense and will severely limit the quality of players we can sign.

LaBombo
09-11-2013, 03:24 PM
This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.
You pretty sure that minority is still small? Even right after a wildly successful debut season in 2010, 40 percent of MN residents felt the public subsidy of TF wasn't justified. After three really bad seasons and a dramatically slashed payroll, has that number declined or risen?

Too bad we didn't get the downtown merchants to pay for the Vikings stadium either. Woulda been nice.

PseudoSABR
09-11-2013, 03:44 PM
Not even then, really. Rogers cost only $2 million in his only year here, was wasn't much even back then.Mea Culpa. For some reason, I had it in my head that it was much higher than that.

Nick Nelson
09-11-2013, 03:46 PM
They can do whatever they want to do. This is America.
Ugh.

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 03:49 PM
Ugh.

It's almost like you can feel your head is about to explode, no? :-)

LaBombo
09-11-2013, 04:00 PM
Mea Culpa. For some reason, I had it in my head that it was much higher than that.
So did I. And Reed really was expensive (15 million/2 years was a lot back then), even though the loss of Lawton offset most of the money.

Was surprised to see Rogers' one 2 million dollar season in MN after he made almost 4 times that in TX the year before. And he made $8 million in his final season just 5 years ago, when Detroit lost 88 games. Had forgotten there were only two seasons between The Gambler knowing when to fold'em and the Tigers making it to the ALCS

LaBombo
09-11-2013, 04:03 PM
Does choosing to be a fan mean I relinquish my right to be critical when it is merited?
Yes. Strangely, however, unmerited criticism is well within your rights. It's kind of hard to explain...

Joe A. Preusser
09-11-2013, 04:31 PM
I get really tired of hearing the "Twins won't compete until 2015 so there's no point in spending" refrain. Just a loser's mentality that I pray Terry Ryan does not share.



I think the point is that our window really opens in earnest in 2015, so if we don't have our pieces in place then, we actively start wasting opportunity. If we can be more competitive next year by signing guys a year early that is fantastic. But opening day 2015 we're on the clock and none of us want to see any of that time pissed away.

Shane Wahl
09-11-2013, 04:56 PM
2015 is going to be the first full season of the Buxton-Mauer-Sano trio with Arcia, Rosario, Pinto, Hicks, and Dozier in support. It is also the first full year of the likely trio of Gibson, Meyer, and . . . . May . . . with . . . support?

Something looks good and something looks fairly dubious. Getting this all ready to go in 2014 for 2015 seems like a damn good idea to me, so for the Twins to not at least TRY to spend $90 million next year would be terrible. $30 million easily acquire E. Santana and Hughes.

ashburyjohn
09-11-2013, 05:35 PM
The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur.

You say that as though it dates back to 1961 and Calvin Griffith. The interview everyone remembers is from 2010, just three years ago. Link:

Upbeat Twins owner Jim Pohlad has lots to say but stays mum on the Mauer issue | MinnPost (http://www.minnpost.com/sports/2010/02/upbeat-twins-owner-jim-pohlad-has-lots-say-stays-mum-mauer-issue)

"And though the Twins expect to lose a significant chunk of revenue-sharing money from Major League Baseball in 2011, Pohlad said Target Field revenues should allow the Twins' payroll to remain in the $95 million range beyond this season. "

What an exceedingly bitter thing it is, to re-read that now. He went on to say that it could drop. But I really want 2013's payroll to be seen in retrospect as a one-year blip.


The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such.

Sure. But is it wise business, in the line of work the Twins are in, to be known as a group that you'd better get every last thing in writing? Or is it better to be known as someone whose word, vetted by the lawyers or not, means something? Because community goodwill is no doubt part of how ownership values their franchise, and this kind of thing can piddle it away in a few short years.

Kwak
09-11-2013, 05:59 PM
The premise of this thread Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason has raised the question to the doubters: Why do you think they won't? I shall try to be brief.

1) They don't have to do so. Minnesota fans have demonstrated considerable tolerance to lack-lustre results. "There are certain places where there's more latitude on the part of management to deal with the issue of competition. Places like Minnesota..." Sandy Alderson former A's GM. Quote taken from The Extra 2% by Jonah Keri, 2011.
I sat in the Legend's Club on a beautiful Saturday night. These are expensive tickets held by season ticket holders--but it sure seemed to me that most there has acquired these seats [somehow]. No one talked baseball. Mostly people ate, drank, and soaked-up the atmosphere. Except for the 7th inning stretch and when there was two outs in the 9th one might have thought this crowd was watching Shakespeare in the Park instead of a MLB game. But everybody seemed happy and glad that they spent their time and money to go to the game. Winning or losing was simply incidental to their evening of enjoyment.

2. The Twins have little to even negative incentive to spend

That particular game was very nearly a sell-out. A better team would not have sold enough extra tickets to cover the added cost of a better team.

Revenue sharing is a substantial % of gross revenues and doesn't have to be earned on the diamond. But revenue sharing does have a hook--"poorer teams benefit less from revenue sharing when they start winning more games."--The Extra 21/2 %. "Win more games--and get less money from the league."

3. Safer and cheaper to not shortcut the process

It pains me to write this stuff because I'm one of those paying for Target Field. But many feel that by "going slow and taking your turn" (building through the draft) saves money, allows a better opportunity to build a stronger and longer-lasting-winning team. Given the huge disparity in revenues between the top markets and everybody else, the smaller (not just the small!) market teams probably have to concentrate their talent in a shorter window in order to "have enough" to overcome all of the big market teams to win a World Series.

4. The Pohlads have shown a keen interest in paying-off the short-term debt.
I don't know why, but apparently they do. The Twins provided information for a newspaper article to discuss this issue--an issue that very few, if any, other teams would be willing to even mention.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-11-2013, 06:04 PM
You're just providing us all with false hope. The Twins are too scared to spend money.

Highabove
09-11-2013, 06:29 PM
From new underwear up to Baseball Players, there are people who will not buy unless they are getting what they perceive as a bargain. Do we really expect Ryan to change is stripes overnight??

howieramone
09-11-2013, 06:33 PM
You say that as though it dates back to 1961 and Calvin Griffith. The interview everyone remembers is from 2010, just three years ago. Link:

Upbeat Twins owner Jim Pohlad has lots to say but stays mum on the Mauer issue | MinnPost (http://www.minnpost.com/sports/2010/02/upbeat-twins-owner-jim-pohlad-has-lots-say-stays-mum-mauer-issue)

"And though the Twins expect to lose a significant chunk of revenue-sharing money from Major League Baseball in 2011, Pohlad said Target Field revenues should allow the Twins' payroll to remain in the $95 million range beyond this season. "

What an exceedingly bitter thing it is, to re-read that now. He went on to say that it could drop. But I really want 2013's payroll to be seen in retrospect as a one-year blip.



Sure. But is it wise business, in the line of work the Twins are in, to be known as a group that you'd better get every last thing in writing? Or is it better to be known as someone whose word, vetted by the lawyers or not, means something? Because community goodwill is no doubt part of how ownership values their franchise, and this kind of thing can piddle it away in a few short years.I don't care to, nor will I get into a debate on this. But IMO, it boils down to one question. Did the Twin's Organization ever make any promise which would lead Terry Ryan to believe, he was obligated to spend money for the sake of spending money?

I completely agree with your comments on goodwill.

TheLeviathan
09-11-2013, 06:41 PM
I don't care to, nor will I get into a debate on this. But IMO, it boils down to one question. Did the Twin's Organization ever make any promise which would lead Terry Ryan to believe, he was obligated to spend money for the sake of spending money?

Your question is irrelevant to the issue. The percentage number came up in regards to how to set payroll expectations, you are twisting the argument to fit the refrain you have brought to the thread.

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 06:44 PM
Your question is irrelevant to the issue. The percentage number came up in regards to how to set payroll expectations, you are twisting the argument to fit the refrain you have brought to the thread.

Exactly...parameters of the debate just keep moving...Not only that, but who is to say paying for a quality player is spending money for the sake of spending? We have a plethora of holes to fill, spending to fill one or more isn't spending to spend...

Highabove
09-11-2013, 07:02 PM
I don't care to, nor will I get into a debate on this. But IMO, it boils down to one question. Did the Twin's Organization ever make any promise which would lead Terry Ryan to believe, he was obligated to spend money for the sake of spending money?

Here's your answer


"The incremental revenues generated by a new ballpark should help stabilize the franchise and provide the team with additional resources to be competitive".
Twins Website 2005

When asked "how long can the team sustain payrolls above" $90M, Pohlad said, "It's all a function of our revenue. We try to keep (the payroll) within 50 percent of our revenue range. So model-wise, it would indicate that it's sustainable." Pohlad added, Pioneer press 2/09/2010

"Lack of money breeds lack of players, which breeds losing teams and lowers attendance. Therefore, the Metrodome is a recipe for failure and financial shortfalls". Twins talking points to State Legislature.

Twins CEO Jim Pohlad said the team will continue to spend an average of 50 percent of its revenues on payroll. That same philosophy was there in the Metrodome, but revenues have grown significant

Star Tribune 11/11/2010

The Twins' philosophy is to use 50 percent of revenues to determine what the payroll is, and the move to Target Field is the reason why that bottom line has increased. That's not stopping the Twins from tweaking the field, however, as $4 to $6 million is being invested in the one-year-old club with enhancements.
CBS Sports 11/11/2010

jm3319
09-11-2013, 07:50 PM
I didn't realize payroll was still over $80M this year. I thought it was closer to $60 or $70..... Who knew junk was so expensive these days? That means they're "paying" over $1M per win this year and are still terrible.....Yikes.

ashburyjohn
09-11-2013, 07:58 PM
but revenues have grown significant

5550

Nick Nelson
09-11-2013, 09:07 PM
2015 is going to be the first full season of the Buxton-Mauer-Sano trio with Arcia, Rosario, Pinto, Hicks, and Dozier in support. It is also the first full year of the likely trio of Gibson, Meyer, and . . . . May . . . with . . . support?
All nice to think about. But you're hypothesizing about something that's two years away. A lot can happen between now and then. Minor-leaguers are unknown quantities. Maybe only half the guys you listed end up being impact players... maybe less. Then you arrive at 2015, and you're in a situation that's not all that different, and you wasted the last year making no effort to legitimately improve your team.

I don't disagree with looking at 2015 as a realistic target but the Twins still need to keep getting better in the meantime.

Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

jorgenswest
09-11-2013, 09:31 PM
I have changed my mind as I read the posts about the budget.

I have come to believe that season ticket holders need a better team next year even at the cost of the future. I fear the risk of players to large contracts only to have them ineffective or injured when they are needed in 2016-2017. I think it gives the Twins a better chance of fielding a very good team by timing the signings after the base has major league experience.

However I realize that if something isn't done to make this team better next year, revenues will decline. Declining revenues could prevent the possibility of signing players in the future.

It is better to try to be competitive every year instead of trying to time it to build a very good team in the future. Maybe they will get lucky one of these years and make the playoffs. Maybe they will just hang out around .500 every year with a mix of improving young players and declining old players. In any case, the act of making moves and signing a good free agent will generate ticket sales. Those revenues are needed and the season ticket holders deserve the attempt to be competitive.

Physics Guy
09-11-2013, 09:31 PM
Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

Very bummed out. Please don't let me down Terry Ryan.

cmb0252
09-11-2013, 09:35 PM
All nice to think about. But you're hypothesizing about something that's two years away. A lot can happen between now and then. Minor-leaguers are unknown quantities. Maybe only half the guys you listed end up being impact players... maybe less. Then you arrive at 2015, and you're in a situation that's not all that different, and you wasted the last year making no effort to legitimately improve your team.

I don't disagree with looking at 2015 as a realistic target but the Twins still need to keep getting better in the meantime.

Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

I'm all for spending big, currently consider myself the leader of the sign Tanaka bandwagon, but who are these proven arms? Even the top arms in this FA class have major question marks and in normal years wouldn't even be top 5 guys. If the Twins can't sign Tanaka I much rather trade for an arm. Find this years Santana.

mike wants wins
09-12-2013, 08:24 AM
Are you willing to trade some great propsects for great, proven, MLB pitchers? Ryan has never shown he's willing to do that either, has he?

Oldgoat_MN
09-12-2013, 08:56 AM
I think I'll post something here that I feel has been under-represented.

I really believe that Terry Ryan would like to have a winning team. More than TR, however, I suspect the Pohlads would love to have a winning team.

These things take time, given where we found ourselves in 2011. Am I happy with the commitments made in the last off-season? No.

I do believe, however, that the Pohlads feel Ryan is the baseball guy to create a winner for them. 'Bragging Rights' does not even begin to tell the story of a day in the life of a Pohlad when your team wins the World Series.

I think that sometimes I have less patience than they do, but maybe not. Maybe they are unstable, obsessive, over-committed Twins fans, too.

diehardtwinsfan
09-12-2013, 10:45 AM
Are you willing to trade some great propsects for great, proven, MLB pitchers? Ryan has never shown he's willing to do that either, has he?

That isn't a strategy you do right now. It's one you do when you are missing a piece or two, not before you know what pieces you are going to be missing.

mike wants wins
09-12-2013, 10:48 AM
That isn't a strategy you do right now. It's one you do when you are missing a piece or two, not before you know what pieces you are going to be missing.

I never mentioned timing.....I asked if "you" thought Ryan would do that.

Willihammer
09-12-2013, 10:53 AM
That isn't a strategy you do right now. It's one you do when you are missing a piece or two, not before you know what pieces you are going to be missing.

This is very debatable, given what we know about the attrition rate of prospects. You could just as easily (more easily, maybe) be waiting for a window that will never open.

ThePuck
09-12-2013, 10:54 AM
I never mentioned timing.....I asked if "you" thought Ryan would do that.

Well, I don't believe he ever has before. Speaking of trading great prospects for great, proven, MLB pitching...KC is two games back for the wild card.

Shane Wahl
09-12-2013, 11:04 AM
All nice to think about. But you're hypothesizing about something that's two years away. A lot can happen between now and then. Minor-leaguers are unknown quantities. Maybe only half the guys you listed end up being impact players... maybe less. Then you arrive at 2015, and you're in a situation that's not all that different, and you wasted the last year making no effort to legitimately improve your team.

I don't disagree with looking at 2015 as a realistic target but the Twins still need to keep getting better in the meantime.

Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

Nick, without looking back at the rest of my post, I thought I said that the Twins should spend *now* for 2015 in mind given the fact that those prospects will be ready to go. I also meant to distinguish between position player prospects and pitching prospects, and the clear discrepancy in number of viable prospects for that 2015 mark. So the Twins need to spend that $30 million (and could do it on E. Santana, Phil Hughes, and J. Santana). And not one year deals.

cmb0252
09-12-2013, 11:53 AM
I never mentioned timing.....I asked if "you" thought Ryan would do that.

I don't know if Ryan would trade say....Sano, Buxton, or Meyer for a top arm but how about a reclamation project like Ervin Santana last year? Its not like we dont have to money to take on. People seem to forget that Santana was given away for free last year because of how poor he had pitched. Now he is magically a proven arm.

How about calling up the Rays about Hellboy? He would cost maybe a B spec which we are loaded with. Once again, I'm all for spending on pitching but because of how weak to FA market is I hope the Twins explore trades first.

twinswon1991
09-12-2013, 12:27 PM
The problem is not the money it is the people making the decisions. TR still thinks that rbi, pitcher wins and tail battling are the be all end all. He scoffs at strikeout pitchers and couldnt spell WAR or sabrmetrics. Until TR is fired this franchise is doomed.

twinswon1991
09-12-2013, 12:43 PM
The Twins will spend, but I have zero confidence that they will spend the right way, instead of overpaying for mediocrity, with Ryan at the helm. He has never done it. Never.

I would not mind if the Twins spend $30 million a year for Tanaka and Abreu and Guerrero (that takes care of 1B and SS). Then they should spend another $20-30 for 2 top FA SP. Trade Willingham/Doumit/Correia. Give Sano every chance to win the 3B job in ST.

Then maybe they will have a competitive team.

But with the people who are ru(i)ning them these days, I just don't see it happening.

There are bigger fish to fry than spending: Changing the Front office and the field management is necessary before spending.

Spot on. Until the old school (clueless) is gone we will continue to be a laughingstock.

Shane Wahl
09-12-2013, 12:54 PM
E. Santana 3/48, Phil Hughes 2/18, J. Santana 1/2 with 3 in incentives and a big option.

Holy hell that maxes out at $30 million for 2014. Imagine that!

diehardtwinsfan
09-12-2013, 06:21 PM
This is very debatable, given what we know about the attrition rate of prospects. You could just as easily (more easily, maybe) be waiting for a window that will never open.

We don't have enough prospects to fill all the holes on this team, and that's with the best farm in baseball. I'd note that trading for established players also carries with it some pretty substantial risk and can be just as damaging (and far more expensive).

There's a time to trade prospects for good players. That time isn't now.

glunn
09-12-2013, 08:14 PM
The problem is not the money it is the people making the decisions. TR still thinks that rbi, pitcher wins and tail battling are the be all end all. He scoffs at strikeout pitchers and couldnt spell WAR or sabrmetrics. Until TR is fired this franchise is doomed.

Moderator note:

These are matters of opinion that you are stating as fact. That makes posts like this inflammatory. Please be more considerate of those members who may be tempted to respond in kind, at which point the thread will devolve into a flame war and rational discussion will get drowned out.

notoriousgod71
09-12-2013, 08:55 PM
you have completely lost faith in the desire of this front office to compete.

This.

spycake
09-12-2013, 08:55 PM
My point isn't that they shouldn't sign a guy or two, but I think everyone needs to ask themselves how many starters they need (who from the current options WILL and how many do you think SHOULD be in the 2014 rotation or have a spot open to compete for).

Just catching up on this thread now, just wanted to comment on this:

Remember that last offseason, TR apparently figured he only "needed" 3 new guys for the rotation, and we still wound up using Pedro Hernandez, PJ Walters, and other assorted flotsam before the end of May.
I'd be really careful with saying they "only need" X number of guys, or they need to leave X spots open for guys to compete for. This team, like the 2012 team before it, is dangerously close to having zero reliable average MLB starters. They need all the help they can get.

Steve Johnson
09-17-2013, 03:19 AM
I agree. Tanaka is the prize. I would spent the 90M-110M if he checks out with our scouts.

Apparently, Nishioka checked out with our scouts. So I don't think it's as simple as that.

Top-flight Japanese pitchers tend to be a crapshoot, and none of them seem to have the control the Twins are usually looking for.

I think there's better risks.

Santana and Hughes...

Mr. Brooks
09-22-2013, 10:01 AM
Well, unfortunately Nick, Terry Ryan's most recent comments do not offer any hope that you may be right.

Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, “If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.”

Another long summer: 2014 not looking much better for Twins | Star Tribune (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/224734662.html)

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 10:26 AM
Well, unfortunately Nick, Terry Ryan's most recent comments do not offer any hope that you may be right.

Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, If were going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, its probably not going to be in free agency.

Another long summer: 2014 not looking much better for Twins | Star Tribune (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/224734662.html)

That's as damning a quote as I could have imagined. It isn't strategic media fodder, it isn't just next year but "long term", and it basically rules out all significant non-trade/draft options.

Ouch....that should kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational. This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing.

USAFChief
09-22-2013, 10:38 AM
Well that was a rather sobering article.

Willihammer
09-22-2013, 10:46 AM
The solutions, though, aren’t particularly obvious. Free agency is a popular quick fix, but for a team like the Twins, that would be like shopping for a 100-person formal banquet at 7-Eleven — the needs are many, and the selection, particularly this year, is meager. Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, “If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.”

Make a trade? That will take some creativity, since unlike with last offseason’s deals sending away Denard Span and Ben Revere, the Twins have few surpluses. Jared Burton, Casey Fien and Glen Perkins give them flexibility to deal a relief pitcher, but only Perkins figures to fetch much — and he’s a hometown bargain. Few other players have much trade value, for various reasons.



Was anyone paying attention to what happened around the league this summer?

What's stopping Ryan from blowing away 3-4 guys with 1 year offers on the promise that, if they perform, they will be playing for a contender after the trade deadline?

howieramone
09-22-2013, 10:53 AM
That's as damning a quote as I could have imagined. It isn't strategic media fodder, it isn't just next year but "long term", and it basically rules out all significant non-trade/draft options.

Ouch....that should kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational. This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing. I don't believe those in the national media predicting an early turnaround are going to change their tune or many on this board for that matter. Like the article said, Ryan will probably pursue low profile free agents, but that's not where the true success of the rebuild will come from. Most of the names of the players who will turn the Twins around are already known to us.

Mr. Brooks
09-22-2013, 10:59 AM
I don't believe those in the national media predicting an early turnaround are going to change their tune or many on this board for that matter. Like the article said, Ryan will probably pursue low profile free agents, but that's not where the true success of the rebuild will come from. Most of the names of the players who will turn the Twins around are already known to us.

That seems to conflict with your documented posts claiming that Terry Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, and that he knows the time is now and will make some big moves.

And if you do believe that he will not sign any significant pieces in FA, that seems to conflict with your documented belief that "the parade starts in 2014". Do you truly think that a bunch of prospects all at AA or A are going to suddenly take us from zero to hero in one season, with no hiccups along the way, especially when many of our top prospects are not even expected to be up until late 2014, if at all?

ThePuck
09-22-2013, 11:05 AM
Well, unfortunately Nick, Terry Ryan's most recent comments do not offer any hope that you may be right.

Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, “If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.”

Another long summer: 2014 not looking much better for Twins | Star Tribune (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/224734662.html)

Completely predictable. Thanks for the link.

old nurse
09-22-2013, 11:31 AM
Was anyone paying attention to what happened around the league this summer?

What's stopping Ryan from blowing away 3-4 guys with 1 year offers on the promise that, if they perform, they will be playing for a contender after the trade deadline?

Reality would stop Ryan from blowing away people with a one year offer with a promise to be playing for a contender. What free agent signed last winter is playing for a contender. Feldman briefly was. The year before Maholm. It is a promise he can't keep.

howieramone
09-22-2013, 11:54 AM
That seems to conflict with your documented posts claiming that Terry Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, and that he knows the time is now and will make some big moves.

And if you do believe that he will not sign any significant pieces in FA, that seems to conflict with your documented belief that "the parade starts in 2014". Do you truly think that a bunch of prospects all at AA or A are going to suddenly take us from zero to hero in one season, with no hiccups along the way, especially when many of our top prospects are not even expected to be up until late 2014, if at all?

I fail to see a conflict in my posts. Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, he knows now is a very good time, but actually has until the winter of 2014/2015. I think he will add 1 and probably 2 starting pitchers better than what we have. I consider that to be big and significant. You misquoted me................. the parade starts in 2015.

Mr. Brooks
09-22-2013, 11:58 AM
I fail to see a conflict in my posts. Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, he knows now is a very good time, but actually has until the winter of 2014/2015. I think he will add 1 and probably 2 starting pitchers better than what we have. I consider that to be big and significant. You misquoted me................. the parade starts in 2015.

Well, Terry Ryan disagrees with the underlined, according to the quote of his that I posted.

Teflon
09-22-2013, 12:05 PM
The Twins should actually cut payroll in the off-season, ridding themselves of Doumit's and Willingham's last years if anything of a modicum of longer term value can be gotten in return for them. Knowing the Twins, however, they'll convince themselves that they can get more in return if they wait on the pair until the trading deadline which, when you factor the $10.5 million combined salaries for the two, will just be a waste of money on a team that still won't pitch adequately enough for Doumit's and Willingham's bats to matter. (Plus the Twins never seem to make out all that well at the trading deadline, anyway.) It also clears the way earlier for playing time for the young 'uns.

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 12:17 PM
I fail to see a conflict in my posts. Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, he knows now is a very good time, but actually has until the winter of 2014/2015. I think he will add 1 and probably 2 starting pitchers better than what we have. I consider that to be big and significant. You misquoted me................. the parade starts in 2015.

Except he just said he won't. Pretty clearly and without much wiggle room to spin it otherwise. A quote like this is as clear and as concise as you will ever hear from an executive of a sports team and it completely undercuts any optimism about the offseason.

To suggest otherwise is a really disingenuous re-reading of the statement he made.

howieramone
09-22-2013, 12:36 PM
Except he just said he won't. Pretty clearly and without much wiggle room to spin it otherwise. A quote like this is as clear and as concise as you will ever hear from an executive of a sports team and it completely undercuts any optimism about the offseason.

To suggest otherwise is a really disingenuous re-reading of the statement he made.

It is counterintuitive to interpret one Terry Ryan quote so rigidly, as to assume they will never spend one penny on free agent starting pitching, now or ever.

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 12:41 PM
It is counterintuitive to interpret one Terry Ryan quote so rigidly, as to assume they will never spend one penny on free agent starting pitching, now or ever.

He was asked a specific question and he gave a very specific answer. He even went farther than he needed to. He could've said "We'll use FA in the way we feel best to rebuild this club" or "We don't think in the near term that FA is an answer to helping turn this team around" or something else. To so flatly assert that it won't be used now OR in the long-term is far more than he needed to provide.

I don't read that as they will do nothing, but as they will do nothing significant t augment the rebuild. Again, it's an incredibly damning quote for any of us that were hopeful of a more aggressive approach to adding talent without trading.

Kwak
09-22-2013, 01:33 PM
Bremer had already mentioned Luke Hochevar as a possible target! That should clear-up any misunderstanding of "The Plan" and what results we should expect.

Pius Jefferson
09-22-2013, 02:38 PM
I think Terry Ryan doesn't wants to spend money in free agency because he doesn't know how to.

ashburyjohn
09-22-2013, 02:40 PM
I instinctively distrust quotes in a vacuum. I want to know the question that was asked, I want to know what words sandwiched the quote in question. I googled the quoted line mentioned in Phil Miller's column (linked above), and I didn't find what I wanted - just lots of Twitter references getting passed back and forth. So I looked around for the interview, and found an audio feed. I am very bad at transcribing, so I burned up probably an hour to finally come up with the following.

Starting at 36:25 on:
9/19 HR3 - Limegrover/Terry Ryan (http://www.kfan.com/media/podcast-paul-allen-kfan-fm-1003-KFAN_PADubay/919-hr3-limegroverterry-ryan-23738179/)

Paul Allen: Terry, pitching and free agency, to get serious here, uh, it's my belief you will have requisite money to spend on a free agent pitcher if indeed you identify one, but there will be a lot of competition for these pitchers. Is that accurate?

Terry Ryan: Yes, there's no doubt, and if we're gonna do anything here and succeed in the near AND long term, Paul, it's probably not gonna be via free agency, it's gonna be drafting, and international acquisitions, and trades and so forth. Very rarely do you end up succeeding BECAUSE of free agency. Now, when you get to a point when you're very competitive, and you're looking World Series area, then you go out and you might end up doing something of that nature. But most clubs, and we're one of them, you're not gonna probably get it done via the free agent route. You certainly can complement your roster. ...

Allen: Yep.

Ryan: ... And there will be people out there, we'll be aggressively pursuing. There's no doubt, we need to go that path on occasion. But for long term success, we're gonna have to have the Sanos, and the Rosarios, and the Alex Meyers, and Trevor Mays, and those types of guys come through, and then all of a sudden you've got an opportunity to add a free agent then you go do it.

My take: Miller in his column characterized the discussion as a quick fix for 2014. I agree it weighs against Nick's article in this thread. To extrapolate beyond that and say Ryan won't ever acquire talent via free agency, in my view, is contradicted by Ryan's words.

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 02:49 PM
My take: Miller in his column characterized the discussion as a quick fix for 2014. I agree it weighs against Nick's article in this thread. To extrapolate beyond that and say Ryan won't ever acquire talent via free agency, in my view, is contradicted by Ryan's words.

I wouldn't go so far as to say contradicted - the contradiction here is in his statements about "longterm" and the idea that you'd add when "looking at the World Series". I think, to be fair to Ryan here, he's talking about using FA to go from non-contender to contender. I think we all agree FA isn't going to be effective for that. We're all talking about complements, so this is a pretty classic Twins move to paint the question in the extreme rather than a more sensible interpretation.

No one wants them to build a WS contender out of FA, but if you are waiting for that magic moment to add a FA - I worry about that mentality. If 2015 or 2016 are legit targets to start contending, there is no reason not to add talent now. It would be foolish not to build a team in anticipation of those players developing well, not wait until you see the results.

To me this just sounds like the same Ryan refrain. They will aggressively pursue players insofar as they are willing to accept contracts less than 4 years in length and the dollar cap he feels comfortable with. Then, he will bow out as soon as the price tag gets past his very meager standards for acceptable length and total dollars - a totally forseeable and preventable problem.

ashburyjohn
09-22-2013, 02:55 PM
To me this just sounds like the same Ryan refrain.

Of course. He's been very consistent. To take the single sentence Miller chose, and decide that this has somehow ripped the lid off of Terry Ryan's master plan to keep the Twins at the bottom of the standings, or whatever is meant by "damning" and "kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational", is just not supported by the interview. I don't think that was even what Miller was suggesting.

And to insist that Ryan is waiting for a mythical "magical moment" is plain insulting, when he lays out clearly what he is waiting for. There's no purpose to calling him a liar.

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 03:00 PM
or whatever is meant by "damning" and "kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational", is just not supported by the interview. I don't think that was even what Miller was suggesting.

That quote and what you posted absolutely destroys all the hope Nick Nelson tries to sell in this article. It demolishes any chance we will see significant improvement on this roster via FA this offseason. Miller is suggesting we won't see significant steps forward in 2014 either - thus damning and killing optimism for next year seems mighty fitting. Nothing about what you posted changes that.


And to insist that Ryan is waiting for a mythical "magical moment" is plain insulting, when he lays out clearly what he is waiting for. There's no purpose to calling him a liar.
The offseason is an awfully difficult time to tell if you are WS caliber. Hell, some teams don't even know they're WS caliber in July much less January. Waiting for the right offseason, with the right available players, with the right amount of available money, with the right level of talent to contend - is a recipe for doing nothing. There is nothing insulting about that, just realistic.

Shane Wahl
09-22-2013, 04:25 PM
The last remaining defenders of Terry Ryan should come and try to defend this. If the Twins truly wait on 5 pitching prospects to arrive and be successful, then the wait could be over no sooner than 2016 (Berrios and Stewart--the latter MAYBE).

Maybe TR means that they just aren't going to become a contender solely through FA. Even that is a fairly dubious claim. I don't see how this rules out one FA SP signing that could make an impact, but this is fairly damning.

Again, signing FA doesn't mean that the rebuild has to BE WITH THEM. Free agents are assets to use at one's disposal. What it comes down to is money from ownership and/or a strange Ryan philosophy of stubbornness about growing from within and nothing more. Both of these possibilities are unacceptable.

ashburyjohn
09-22-2013, 04:46 PM
Waiting for the right offseason, with the right available players, with the right amount of available money, with the right level of talent to contend - is a recipe for doing nothing. There is nothing insulting about that, just realistic.

Backpedal all you want, that isn't what you said:

This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing.

Now, when faced with the actual full quote, which is all *about* timing, what is left looks like error on somebody's part. Ryan mis-spoke, Ryan is lying, you didn't have all the facts - take your pick.

The other message is (and now I'm donning my Moderator's hat), why not dial down the rhetoric in the first place, when it's based on an isolated quote that happened to coincide with your larger view of things? This is what we keep asking in the Comments policy; don't insist that "anyone rational" agree with your view. Glunn already asked posters to not be inflammatory earlier in this thread. This is not Rube ChatTM.

old nurse
09-22-2013, 05:04 PM
Except he just said he won't. Pretty clearly and without much wiggle room to spin it otherwise. A quote like this is as clear and as concise as you will ever hear from an executive of a sports team and it completely undercuts any optimism about the offseason.

To suggest otherwise is a really disingenuous re-reading of the statement he made.

From the story

Ryan figures to do some shopping, but he is unlikely to land a star.


So the reporter is talking out of an orfice usually covered by underwear?

"If were going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, its probably not going to be in free agency. Is a very accurate statement about most of the teams in baseball. You can add pieces to make your team better. Rarely does your team get the heart and soul through free agency.

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 05:12 PM
This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing.

Let me help you understand my points, maybe I was unclear.

Ryan clearly is stating not to look for any significant additions this offseason. He's also contradictory about the long-term vs. World Series move points. But my two points are separate. For one, Ryan seems to be suggesting that when this unclear time of being "World Series ready" occurs then he will make a move. But the number of circumstances that have to align for this to happen makes it dubious if it ever happens, much less that we might make a move if it does. You can be hopeful that he means what he says about "World Series ready", but there are very legitimate reasons to doubt this scenario ever happens.

My point you quoted and then conflated with this one is my personal viewpoint. I keep a fool's hope that we'll eventually do something, but the logical part of me says that Ryan has very strong principles about what he will and will not do in regards to contracts. I think those principles are very firm and will not budge even in some future scenario where the rubber meets the road.

PseudoSABR
09-22-2013, 05:14 PM
Ryan: ... And there will be people out there, we'll be aggressively pursuing. This quote seems to suggest that Ryan will aggressively pursue targeted free agents; which seems to support Nick's original article.

ThePuck
09-22-2013, 05:19 PM
This quote seems to suggest that Ryan will aggressively pursue targeted free agents; which seems to support Nick's original article.

Targeting the cheapest possible targets for the shortest amount of time to fill vacant holes...or, basically, using the same failed strategy as last year. I'm waiting for him to again tell us that he'll do everything he can to significantly improve the rotation.

USAFChief
09-22-2013, 05:32 PM
I guess we'll need to wait for the offseason to see how it plays out.

But as I read the article, I'm not very hopeful that the Twins will make any significant effort to improve the 2014 team. Of course, I felt that way prior to the article, so maybe that's coloring my interpretation.

LastOnePicked
09-22-2013, 05:47 PM
"No one wants them to build a WS contender out of FA"

I might be alone, but I'd be 100% okay with this. It would signal at least some commitment to success from ownership. But, of course, it won't happen, and it probably IS better to build a deeper, longer-term contender. I don't have the faith that we have the leadership to do that, but I guess it's good that a few others do.

To me, the larger issue is the club's myopic vision and static approach. Ryan's quote speaks to his belief that there's ONE right way to do build a contender, and for some reason, he still seems to think he knows what that way is. Evidence continues to point to the contrary.

Personally, and this probably belongs on another thread, but I'd rather the team throw $30-$40 million at signing up some of the Cardinals / Rays / A's pitching scouts and coaching talent. Overpay for good infrastructure, I say.

ashburyjohn
09-22-2013, 06:06 PM
Targeting the cheapest possible targets for the shortest amount of time to fill vacant holes...or, basically, using the same failed strategy as last year. I'm waiting for him to again tell us that he'll do everything he can to significantly improve the rotation.

Left unexplained even in the longer quote, and I wish the interviewer Paul Allen had followed up to ask for clarification, was the disarmingly fuzzy term "free agent". Terry Ryan probably would say he went out and got two free agent starting pitchers in Correia and Pelfrey. Is that what he means when he said "And there will be people out there, we'll be aggressively pursuing"? Because to me that level of acquisition wouldn't be very acceptable toward improving the 40-man roster. I expected more last off-season.

ashburyjohn
09-22-2013, 06:17 PM
You can be hopeful that he means what he says about "World Series ready"

No. My lingering optimism was killed earlier today by my rationality after reading your post. :)

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 06:39 PM
No. My lingering optimism was killed earlier today by my rationality after reading your post. :)

Then that makes two of us, :). I don't like feeling hopeless, but I don't see any other way to feel after reading that comment. Even in context.

Major Leauge Ready
09-22-2013, 08:47 PM
INo one wants them to build a WS contender out of FA, but if you are waiting for that magic moment to add a FA - I worry about that mentality. If 2015 or 2016 are legit targets to start contending, there is no reason not to add talent now. It would be foolish not to build a team in anticipation of those players developing well, not wait until you see the results.

To me this just sounds like the same Ryan refrain. They will aggressively pursue players insofar as they are willing to accept contracts less than 4 years in length and the dollar cap he feels comfortable with. Then, he will bow out as soon as the price tag gets past his very meager standards for acceptable length and total dollars - a totally forseeable and preventable problem.

It seems highly unlikely the young core, most of whom are not even here yet, is going to make this team world series compeitors in 2015. Sano will likely be here mid 2014 and Buxton 2015. Rosario might be here sometime next season. Meyer is likely mid 2014 or start of 2015. Now, think about how long it took KC's young core to be ready to compete. Even if all goes well, 2016 is the very earliest the young core is going to compete.

The #1 goal for top FA players and their agents is to get a number years where the last couple of years the player is no longer playing at a "top" level. This is no secret. That type of contract makes it impossible to move the player and their huge contract will severly impede any middle of the pack (in terms of revenue) team in going out and adding other top FAs until that contact has expired. History is quite clear in terms of the risk associated with FA SPs across the entire term of the agreement and espeically the last couple years.

CC Sabathia is a great example. He opted out of his long-term deal so that he could stretch the number of years out long after the point where he was a top of the rotation pitcher. His decline appears to be here and quite rapid. His ERA this year is 4.78 and 6.08 after the all-star break. I think he is signed through 2017. How would you like to have that anchor when the upcomming Twins core is entering their prime?

In my opinion, it would in fact be foolish to add talent in anticipation of the Buxton/Sano and others. It is highly probably the players getting 5-6 year deals will have declined substantially by the time our core has developed. This would be a very good way to lose a couple years where the could have had FA dollars to fill-out a compeitive roster. They do however have a window where they could spend significant dollars on 2-3 or even a 4 year contract for the right guy.

TheLeviathan
09-22-2013, 08:54 PM
In my opinion, it would in fact be foolish to take on 5+ year contracts right now. It is highly probably the players getting 5-6 year deals will have declined by the time our core has developed. This would be a very good way to lose a couple years where the could have had FA dollars to fill-out a compeitive roster. They do however have a window where they could spend significant dollars on 2-3 or even a 4 year contract for the right guy.

With the extra money I think we will have to go 4+. The contracts are going to be higher IMO. With our situation we can afford it 5+. Not to mention, if you wait two years to make significant adds then your contracts butt heads with the end of key arb years from Sano, Arcia, etc. There will be negatives any way you cut it.

Major Leauge Ready
09-22-2013, 10:37 PM
With the extra money I think we will have to go 4+. The contracts are going to be higher IMO. With our situation we can afford it 5+. Not to mention, if you wait two years to make significant adds then your contracts butt heads with the end of key arb years from Sano, Arcia, etc. There will be negatives any way you cut it.

Well, yes, the TV money is going to mean more spending. It really could not be a worse year to play in free agency. The question is how exactly it will impact the spending or more to the point, the contract terms. I am wondering if teams might start to say it is not worth it to extends these elite players out. New York is praying they can get out of the final years of A-Rods, deal. Sabathia's deal looks like it could be a real clunker for the next 4 years. The Pujlos contract could end up being an absolute disaster. Hamilton's deal is going to be a real stinker unless he rebounds in a big way. And, of course, there are many other examples over the past decade.

We might actually see this trend meet some resistance. That's a BIG might but the failures of LA, Toronto, and a number of specific contracts might finally start to make GMs really reluctant when the term takes players well past their prime. Ironically, that might actually be bad for us because the top markets would not be carrying so much dead weight in the future.

TheLeviathan
09-23-2013, 06:21 AM
All good points. I'm personally not advocating for mega 7 year deals, but I do think there is a happy medium that I am worried the Twins aren't considering that would still drastically improve the club.

At the end of the day if you want to find reasons not to utilize FA there will always be some but that shouldn't rule out using it for significant additions.

Oldgoat_MN
09-23-2013, 06:44 AM
The 2006 season ended with the Twins being swept from the post-season by the Oakland A's. The Twins had won their division, a 23 year old kid named Joe Mauer had just won the AL batting title and Justin Morneau had just been crowned the AL MVP.

It was also the last year of Brad Radke's career. To compete again the Twins would have to replace Radke. And who did Terry Ryan go out and sign to make this Division Champion even better, perhaps a World Series competitor?

Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson.

I understand you want to be optimistic, but some of us have watched TR too long to believe anything useful is at all likely.
Could happen, but not likely.

ThePuck
09-23-2013, 07:43 AM
The 2006 season ended with the Twins being swept from the post-season by the Oakland A's. The Twins had won their division, a 23 year old kid named Joe Mauer had just won the AL batting title and Justin Morneau had just been crowned the AL MVP.



We also had the Cy Young winner, a top 3 closer, a gold glove 30 HR hitting CF, and a 20+ HR, 100 RBI RF....and, like you said, Ryan did absolutely nothing to try and get the team over the hump. I believe the goal has been, for a long time now, to try and build a competitive team within the division, with zero concern about building a team that could actually win the W Series.

Oldgoat_MN
09-23-2013, 08:56 AM
We also had the Cy Young winner, a top 3 closer, a gold glove 30 HR hitting CF, and a 20+ HR, 100 RBI RF....and, like you said, Ryan did absolutely nothing to try and get the team over the hump. I believe the goal has been, for a long time now, to try and build a competitive team within the division, with zero concern about building a team that could actually win the W Series.

Unfortunately I believe you are right.

It was that lack of effort, or concern for the Twins chances, that led Johan and Torii to suggest that the future was always down the road, that the Twins would not make the effort to really lock anything up.

Ryan must have thought the Division Championship was the Promised Land. He certainly did nothing to help the club.

And they were so close to being a really great team!

Major Leauge Ready
09-23-2013, 03:36 PM
The 2006 season ended with the Twins being swept from the post-season by the Oakland A's. The Twins had won their division, a 23 year old kid named Joe Mauer had just won the AL batting title and Justin Morneau had just been crowned the AL MVP.

It was also the last year of Brad Radke's career. To compete again the Twins would have to replace Radke. And who did Terry Ryan go out and sign to make this Division Champion even better, perhaps a World Series competitor?

Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson.

I understand you want to be optimistic, but some of us have watched TR too long to believe anything useful is at all likely.
Could happen, but not likely.

You might be right but circumstances (revenue and other) have changed somewhat substantially. You and others are basing your conclusion on actions that took place when the Twins had just slightly more revenue than Kansas City and the other bottom revenue teams. I have nott seen enough post Target Field to assume anything. The actions mentioned were basically consistent with all of the other teams in a similar revenue position.

The only intellectually fair or honest assumptions you can make now would be based on actions since revenues increased which there have been few. Personally, I will wait to see what they do in rebuilding this team until I judge if their philosophical changes matched the increase in revenue. I don’t expect Grienke. I just want to see a change that matches the revenue increase, if that makes sense. What would be fair would be to expect action that reflected a team that has more revenue than those very bottom teams but still significantly less than the top revenue teams. They did sign Mauer to an 8 year $23M/yr contract. That NEVER would have happened in the dome days.

They did not resign 2 noteworthy free agents, Nathan and Cuddy. You can’t hardly blame them for Nathan given the circumstances. (age/Tommy John/money and the fact they replaced him for a fraction of the money. I loved Cuddy but you can’t complain the FO does not know how or refuses to rebuild and then complain about letting Cuddy and Kubel go. They got Berios and replaced Cuddy with Willingham who outplayed him last year. Of course, Cuddy is killing it this year but that move was consistent with rebuilding.

BoBo71
11-06-2013, 06:52 PM
Many consider the Twins returning to be a proven contender as practically a done deal, the only questions being when, and how far will this rebuild take us. Are we going dominate the Central as we have in the past or with the help of the Gods of Baseball will we win another World Series title?

There is every appearance of 2 strong drafts in a row, and we are currently earning another high pick in what is being touted as a deep draft. Our efforts in the International market have given us Arcia, Pinto, and Sano, with every indication that the pipeline will continue.

I do believe Ryan will sign a high-profile name, but I don't see any real urgency until the winter of 2014/2015. No doubt they will be continuously looking, as always, between now and then. They will continue to make Butera and Morneau type trades, though far from sexy, will do a great deal towards shaping the team and adding the final pieces.

While many may consider The Twin's Way to be extremely risk-adverse, I believe it to be cold, calm, and calculated.

This sounds like a comment from the Twins F.O. What's so cold and calculated about their approach? This is a F.O. that essentially said they thought this team could compete in 2013. This is a tight-fisted GM that has posted 10 losing seasons in his 16 on the job, and who has personally posted three straight losing seasons.

The approach doesn't make sense anymore. The game has changed, and TR has not changed with it. Good professional organizations (like the Cardinals, Patriots, Spurs, Red Wings, etc.) do indeed use draft and develop as a basis for their roster compilation. But those organizations also effectively mix in trading for big league talent and the signing of able free agents.

I'm sorry, but your comment reads more like someone that has drank too much of the Twins' Koolaid than someone who is basing his opinions on the evidence at hand. Perhaps Terry Ryan's time has come and gone as a GM? Happens every day in sports. Why not here? Why not him? Why not now? Is it impossible to believe that he's way past HIS prime??? That his notions are tired and old and even apathetic at this point?

This team will not move forward unless Terry Ryan is willing to spend on pitching, either via free agent dollars or by way of blue chip prospects. THAT is what seems so obvious here.