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cmb0252
09-10-2013, 08:49 PM
Tim Diekers at Mlbtraderumors.com ranked the top 34 starting FA pitchers for next year. Here is what he had to say about the crop of arms:

"Sometimes, there's just not a $100MM free agent pitcher out there. C.J. Wilson (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsocj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com)benefited from a weak free agent starting pitching class after the 2011 season, nabbing $77.5MM to lead the group. In the upcoming offseason, the top end of the starting pitcher segment is similarly uninspiring. Here are my early rankings, which are subject to change."

Here are his top 5:

Matt Garza (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garzama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) - In terms of pure free agent starters, I think Garza will receive the largest contract this offseason. He's ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason, which boosts his value. He may have quieted health concerns by making all of his starts since his May 21st big league season debut and averaging nearly seven innings per start.
Masahiro Tanaka (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tanaka003mas&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) - Tanaka, a righty with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, is not technically a free agent but belongs here since he can be obtained by bidding the most (assuming he is posted). I don't want to give too much credit to the unknown, but there are some who would take Tanaka over Garza, especially since Tanaka will pitch next year at age 25.
Ervin Santana (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) - A quality arm whose stock will be damaged by a qualifying offer, if he turns one down and reaches the open market.
Hiroki Kuroda (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) - He'll play next season at age 39, but in feedback on early drafts of this list, most thought he should be this high.
A.J. Burnett (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) - Burnett said in March he wouldn't want to play anywhere but Pittsburgh, and I imagine the team's success this year only solidifies that stance.

To see his full list here is the link:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/top-34-free-agent-starters.html

diehardtwinsfan
09-10-2013, 09:24 PM
I'm on the Tanaka bandwagon personally.

cmb0252
09-10-2013, 09:31 PM
I'm on the Tanaka bandwagon personally.

Me too. Would fill a need, match age wise, and bring much needed (good) media attention to the team hosting the ASG this year. Ben Badler at BA mentioned his total will pass Ryu's 62M but won't hit Darvish's 100M+ number.

mudcat14
09-10-2013, 09:31 PM
For whatever reasons, I see Josh Johnson & Phil Hughes being high on the Twins list. Both are still pretty young for the level of experience that hey have and still have significant upsides if they can manage to put it together. JJ could offer a hometown discount, while Target Field may be the ideal home venue for Hughes' talents.

cmb0252
09-10-2013, 09:37 PM
For whatever reasons, I see Josh Johnson & Phil Hughes being high on the Twins list. Both are still pretty young for the level of experience that hey have and still have significant upsides if they can manage to put it together. JJ could offer a hometown discount, while Target Field may be the ideal home venue for Hughes' talents.

They defiantly seem like Twins targets. Neither will need large contracts or cost compensation picks. Last week Jon Heyman asked a rival GM if the Yankees would offer Hughes a qualifying offer and he had a pretty funny line in response. "They may make a qualifying offer. And I may run for president."

notoriousgod71
09-10-2013, 09:50 PM
Whoever is 35-37 will be the Twins targets.

cmb0252
09-10-2013, 10:25 PM
Whoever is 35-37 will be the Twins targets.

Thanks for the input.

USAFChief
09-10-2013, 10:32 PM
I like Tanaka, and would like to see the Twins take a chance on Johnson. His struggles should keep the price down a little, but there's a lot of upside there if he ever gets healthy. IMO the Twins are in a position where they almost have to gamble on high upside, low downside lotto tickets. You might get nothing, but you might get something really, really good.

Hughes, IMO, isn't a real good gamble. He's not a "high upside" guy for one thing, and I'm leery of guys who's primary calling card is "he'll be better under easier conditions against lesser opponents."

Shane Wahl
09-10-2013, 11:43 PM
I am not sure why reclamation projects are good. Players might want one-year deals to be successful and get the hell away from the Twins. The Twins *will not* win Tanaka. They *will not* sign Garza. I would be willing to go 3/$48 for Ervin and 2/$16 for Hughes.

I am not touching Josh Johnson or oldster pitchers. That kills a lot of the list.

clutterheart
09-11-2013, 12:31 AM
I have not seen any reports that the Twins are scouting Tanaka and it would be shocking if the Twins outbid the Yankees for him anyway.
So I am not counting on this guy.
I would much rather overpay for guys like Garza and I think its 70% likely the team goes after Santana for the PR effect.

jay
09-11-2013, 08:11 AM
I have not seen any reports that the Twins are scouting Tanaka and it would be shocking if the Twins outbid the Yankees for him anyway.


How's this? Twins intend to scout Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka in coming weeks | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Twins_intend_to_scout_Japanese_pitcher_Masahiro_Ta naka_in_coming_weeks082713)

mike wants wins
09-11-2013, 08:14 AM
This points out why sometimes you need to trade great prospects (gasp) for proven players..... but that is a path Ryan does not generally take. It also points out why their failure to develop a legit pitcher since Garza/Baker is the number 1 issue with this team, a failure that should have led to a complete re-do of the scouting and minor league coaching staffs, imo.

jay
09-11-2013, 08:15 AM
I like Tanaka, and would like to see the Twins take a chance on Johnson. His struggles should keep the price down a little, but there's a lot of upside there if he ever gets healthy. IMO the Twins are in a position where they almost have to gamble on high upside, low downside lotto tickets. You might get nothing, but you might get something really, really good.

Hughes, IMO, isn't a real good gamble. He's not a "high upside" guy for one thing, and I'm leery of guys who's primary calling card is "he'll be better under easier conditions against lesser opponents."

I agree with your concepts, but I'll have to disagree on Hughes. Some people use the card you're talking about, but that would be said of basically anyone that pitched in the AL East. I think upside exists. He was a first round pick and reached #4 on BA -- plenty of folks say he hasn't reached his potential.

Shane Wahl
09-11-2013, 08:36 AM
I took risks on Phil Hughes on my fantasy team back in 2007 and 2008. He owes me (the Twins).

I mean if we are talking Pavano money or Pavano money plus inflation, then that is a great signing.

I don't mind Johan as the third signing. For fun, essentially. And respect for what he did.

nicksaviking
09-11-2013, 09:15 AM
The Twins are clearly interested in Tanaka, but reports are that many teams are, and by the time the bidding starts, likely most teams will have checked in. I think he could be signed at a price the Twins could afford, but I have serious doubts the Twins will win the bidding in what likely will be a $40-60 million posting fee considering the entire 2014 payroll will likely be little more than that.

Tibs
09-11-2013, 09:51 AM
I just read today that the Yankees will be paying close to $30 million in luxury taxes for this season, which I think is the most ever. This could potentially make them not as high of bidders on these free agent guys.

Monkeypaws
09-11-2013, 09:58 AM
Scott Kazmir anyone?

Nick Nelson
09-11-2013, 10:29 AM
So some of the same people who are claiming that this is a dreadfully awful FA pitching market have also said they'd be fine with re-signing Pelfrey, who ranks 30th on this list.

Hm....

pierre75275
09-11-2013, 10:37 AM
My wish list in this order:
Tanka
Ubaldo Jimenez
Scott feldman
Phil Hughes
Edison volquez
All these guys I think have potential to be much better then what we have been watching. I would be thrilled if TR signed 3 off this list and happy if he signed just one ..as long as it was tanka. But I dont believe he will shell out 60 million for the privilege of negogiating with him

Shane Wahl
09-11-2013, 10:54 AM
Kaz and Feldman still scare me. I guess Hughes should too? The Twins need to get into a position where Correia goes further and further down towards being the 5th starter (and NOT because of a dramatic drop off in his numbers). I still think that Gibson is a guy who would immediately do that in 2014 (maybe I am naive). Other than that there would be a return of Deduno and the re-emergence of Diamond as being basically similar producers as Correia. Hopefully. And then there's Worley (seriously, what the hell happened there?). So there's Gibson and then fifth starters, the best best of which may be Correia. I would put E. Santana and Hughes (well above and just above, respectively) above him though. Signing those two would please me a great deal. Try three years for Ervin and two for Phil.

LewFordLives
09-11-2013, 11:28 AM
After looking at the full list, the ones who intrigue me the most in terms of quality and signability are Nolasco, Feldman, Kazmir, Hughes, and Vargas. I think the Twins should try and get at least one from that group and then add another filler from the Pelfry/Baker pile. Ultimately the problems with the starting pitching will need to be solved from within, so they need to keep enough spots in the rotation open to keep getting the younger guys experience.

nicksaviking
09-11-2013, 11:38 AM
Bored at work so I was checking out what else the Japanese leagues have to offer. Forget Tanaka, when does this kid get posted?

Shintaro Fujinami Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=fujina000shi)

A 6'5" Japanese pitcher?! Wow, and only 19.

I say if Ryan losses the posting fee bidding war on Tanaka, he puts a team together and starts rebuilding the pitching staff with a little extrodinary rendition.

PseudoSABR
09-11-2013, 11:58 AM
So some of the same people who are claiming that this is a dreadfully awful FA pitching market have also said they'd be fine with re-signing Pelfrey, who ranks 30th on this list.

Hm....You're right, Nick. Those same people probably intend to stop signing pitching once they've netted Pelfry. Signing Pelfry isn't mutually exclusive to any other move. We need to fill between 3 and 4 rotation spots.

PseudoSABR
09-11-2013, 12:02 PM
I'm not sure how useful this list is. The top 5 seem good, but there's a lot of sketchiness from 5 to 10; the distance between 11 and 30 seems pretty marginal and mostly built on guesswork.

I'd like the Twins to sign Tanaka of course. But I could see them realistically signing one of Hughes/Johnson/Jimenez and one of a Saunders/Pelfry/Baker type player.

Nick Nelson
09-11-2013, 12:16 PM
You're right, Nick. Those same people probably intend to stop signing pitching once they've netted Pelfry. Signing Pelfry isn't mutually exclusive to any other move. We need to fill between 3 and 4 rotation spots.
I'm guessing the Twins feel that they need to fill, at most, two rotation spots externally. Given the iffy nature of everyone who will be tabbed for the other slots, they need to aim higher than Pelfrey, who might be better than this list suggests but offers little upside.

PseudoSABR
09-11-2013, 12:28 PM
I'm guessing the Twins feel that they need to fill, at most, two rotation spots externally. Given the iffy nature of everyone who will be tabbed for the other slots, they need to aim higher than Pelfrey, who might be better than this list suggests but offers little upside.He might also offer little downside, as he's had some success pitching for us; he's not my preference but I can certainly understand why the Twins would want to mitigate their risk. Signing say both Hughes and Johnson, might leave you with absolutely nothing, though we can dream bigger on both. Signing a guy like Pelfry, might make signing a third free agent, some one even riskier like Baker or Volquez more palatable.

mike wants wins
09-11-2013, 12:40 PM
I agree with Nick, we'll likely see no more than 2 signed.

KC
Gibson
Deduno
FA
random guy from system from a long list of names

This is how I think (and this is totally a guess) the Twins would like at things. And, frankly, I'm not sure I'd disagree.

I would think TR thinks May or Meyer will be ready at some point next year (and I think I agree), that Gibson is penciled in for sure, and that he has KC signed.....Diamond/Worley/Hendriks/Albers is random guy....that really leaves only 1-2 spotes (me, I'd sign two outsiders).

jay
09-11-2013, 12:46 PM
I agree with Nick, we'll likely see no more than 2 signed.


Have to agree as well. I'd be reasonably satisfied if that were a mid- to higher-end guy (Johnson/Hughes/Jimenez) for a few years at $10M+ and more of a lottery ticket on a mid- to lower-end guy with more upside than a Correia.

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 02:44 PM
Yesterday, a fan on another site I frequent wrote:

"Realistically the Twins were eliminated the minute Terry Ryan said he was happy with the starting pitchers he acquired in the off-season"

If he was happy with what he did last offseason, why would we think he'd even bother to shoot higher this coming offseason?

twinsnorth49
09-11-2013, 02:58 PM
I agree that 2 are signed, this thread is eerily similar to last off season in what people think the Twins may realistically sign in the potentially higher class (Johnson, Jimenez, Hughes) types.

My bet is one of Saunders/Pelfrey type and one of Baker/Marcum/Santana as the annual reclamation pick.

Tanaka? In the immortal words of President George H.W. Bush, "Not gonna do it".

Thegrin
09-11-2013, 06:30 PM
Drek. Overpriced Drek. and more Drek. Somebody may get lucky with one or 2 of them, but this is as sorry a group of pitchers that anyone could imagine.

USAFChief
09-11-2013, 08:31 PM
Drek. Overpriced Drek. and more Drek. Somebody may get lucky with one or 2 of them, but this is as sorry a group of pitchers that anyone could imagine.
We know. That's why we're hoping TR replaces at least 2, if not more, of them in the offseason.

snepp
09-11-2013, 08:48 PM
We know. That's why we're hoping TR replaces at least 2, if not more, of them in the offseason.

Perfect.

diehardtwinsfan
09-11-2013, 08:51 PM
Bored at work so I was checking out what else the Japanese leagues have to offer. Forget Tanaka, when does this kid get posted?

Shintaro Fujinami Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=fujina000shi)

A 6'5" Japanese pitcher?! Wow, and only 19.

I say if Ryan losses the posting fee bidding war on Tanaka, he puts a team together and starts rebuilding the pitching staff with a little extrodinary rendition.

Not for a while... I think at that age, he'd have to enter the regular draft. Doesn't he have to be 23 or something like that to be a FA?

ThePuck
09-11-2013, 08:52 PM
We know. That's why we're hoping TR replaces at least 2, if not more, of them in the offseason.

What a fantastic post!

Physics Guy
09-11-2013, 09:13 PM
I agree that 2 are signed, this thread is eerily similar to last off season in what people think the Twins may realistically sign in the potentially higher class (Johnson, Jimenez, Hughes) types.

My bet is one of Saunders/Pelfrey type and one of Baker/Marcum/Santana as the annual reclamation pick.

Tanaka? In the immortal words of President George H.W. Bush, "Not gonna do it".

Similar sentiments on this thread as we are seeing on Nick Nelson's article. Many WANT to see one from the top 5, one from the next 15 and another flier. Sadly, after last year, I think you may have nailed what actually happens. I hope Nick is right and the financial situation has changed from last year and Ryan opens the purse strings.

I keep dreaming that somehow Ryan will pull off a trade and go after somebody else who is already signed for a few years that is better than what is out there. Names like Price, Lee, Hamels, ... who have contracts that teams may want to get out of. And then I wake up and realize it won't happen. Is there a non-zero chance of this happening? The Twins certainly could afford to take on such a contract.

cmb0252
09-12-2013, 02:09 PM
Mlbtraderumors profiles FA starting pitcher to be Ricky Nolasco. Here is the writer had to say about what possibly could be his next contract:

"An agent recently told me he focuses much more on years than average annual value, because teams and agents generally know the likely AAV range before they even begin negotiating. Nolasco should have no problem finding three years; the big question is whether the Dodgers or another team will offer four. Sosnick will probably begin there, explaining why his client is on par with Edwin Jackson (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) and Mark Buehrle (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com), and one of the best in a weak market. Jackson, Buehrle, and Nolasco are all durable 200 inning types, but Jackson hit the market at 29 and brought the allure of a 93-94 mile per hour fastball. Buehrle was two years older than Nolasco, but also had better career numbers. Plus, Buehrle's four-year, $58MM contract was something of a fluke -- the Marlins were reportedly the only team offering the fourth year, as they were in the midst of a new ballpark spending spree. Then again, it only takes one team to guarantee that fourth year, making the Jackson contract Nolasco's likely ceiling.
An innings guy these days will probably require an AAV in the $10-13MM range. Ultimately I believe Nolasco will sign a three-year, $36MM deal."

Full article here:
Free Agent Profile: Ricky Nolasco: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/free-agent-profile-ricky-nolasco.html)

StormJH1
09-12-2013, 02:53 PM
Actually, when I looked at the full list, I think there's more halfway decent pitchers that could actually be in range for the Twins than last year's list. Last year had more high-end talent, but there's a lot of injury guys in there or guys that have aged (Halladay) or otherwise slipped from a higher level (Lincecum, Josh Johnson).

I guess one thing that's concerning is that except for Lincecum and maybe a guy like Ervin Santana, there aren't a lot of guys on that list you could see being effective 3 or more years down the road, even in a best-case scenario.

Paul Maholm certainly looks like a Twins pitcher, doesn't he?

A lot of people will look at giving a guy like Phil Hughes a shot, but I was surprised when I looked at his numbers and realized that other than 2010 (which was by no means "elite") he never really put together a "good" full MLB season as a starter.

I'd take Baker back, but are the Cubs really going to let him walk? He'll make all of 3 starts this year, what if he looks okay? (He went 5 and was okay in his first one).

old nurse
09-12-2013, 03:15 PM
Mlbtraderumors profiles FA starting pitcher to be Ricky Nolasco. Here is the writer had to say about what possibly could be his next contract:

"An agent recently told me he focuses much more on years than average annual value, because teams and agents generally know the likely AAV range before they even begin negotiating. Nolasco should have no problem finding three years; the big question is whether the Dodgers or another team will offer four. Sosnick will probably begin there, explaining why his client is on par with Edwin Jackson (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) and Mark Buehrle (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com), and one of the best in a weak market. Jackson, Buehrle, and Nolasco are all durable 200 inning types, but Jackson hit the market at 29 and brought the allure of a 93-94 mile per hour fastball. Buehrle was two years older than Nolasco, but also had better career numbers. Plus, Buehrle's four-year, $58MM contract was something of a fluke -- the Marlins were reportedly the only team offering the fourth year, as they were in the midst of a new ballpark spending spree. Then again, it only takes one team to guarantee that fourth year, making the Jackson contract Nolasco's likely ceiling.
An innings guy these days will probably require an AAV in the $10-13MM range. Ultimately I believe Nolasco will sign a three-year, $36MM deal."

Full article here:
Free Agent Profile: Ricky Nolasco: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/free-agent-profile-ricky-nolasco.html)

Although you never know, why wouldn't the Dodgers re-sign Nolasco? He is pitching better than he ever has for them. Billingsly might take a while to get back to form so they do have a need. What the Dodgers gave up for Nolasco the Twins could have found in their system last winter. This kind of situation is why I had said the Twins should have traded for him last winter. At worst by tendering him you would get a prospect back better than what you gave up.

Oxtung
09-12-2013, 09:20 PM
I think the Twins are very weak at lefty starters. Albers is here on pure guile, Diamond is pretty shaky, Hernandez is borderline and that leaves ... ? Darnell? He doesn't seem to be much of an upgrade. The next guys down are were in A+ ball this year and they both seem like fifth starters as well. IMO you have to get all the way down to Cedar Rapids and Elizabethton to find lefties with even moderate upside.

So who is the best lefty available this year? Who might be available for trade? Something is going to need to be done there before long.

spycake
09-12-2013, 09:29 PM
At worst by tendering him you would get a prospect back better than what you gave up.

The new CBA says you can't make a qualifying offer to a guy you traded for mid-season. (Or at least that you can't get compensation after making such an offer.)

So unlike deadline deals of the past, there is literally no way for Nolasco, Morneau, etc. to bring back anything to their new teams after the 2013 season.

old nurse
09-12-2013, 10:46 PM
The new CBA says you can't make a qualifying offer to a guy you traded for mid-season. (Or at least that you can't get compensation after making such an offer.)

So unlike deadline deals of the past, there is literally no way for Nolasco, Morneau, etc. to bring back anything to their new teams after the 2013 season.

Sorry, didn't make it clear, I said last winter they should have traded for him. before the season started. After the big 2 I didn't see anything much to build around and said they should look to trade for an impeding free agent like Nolasco. IIRC I was shot at pretty hard for bringing up Nolasco as a potential Twin.

spycake
09-13-2013, 12:07 PM
Ah, that makes more sense.

Even Nolasco's durable but middling pre-2013 would have looked good in a Twins uniform, even at $11.5 mil. I'm guessing that salary figure did not appeal to the Twins, though.

I also wonder if the Marlins were holding on to him to boost his value a bit (although it evidently wasn't boosted much). Or if the Twins even had the quantity of minor league arms to send to Miami in return -- the cupboard here is pretty bare.

cmb0252
09-13-2013, 12:52 PM
Sorry, didn't make it clear, I said last winter they should have traded for him. before the season started. After the big 2 I didn't see anything much to build around and said they should look to trade for an impeding free agent like Nolasco. IIRC I was shot at pretty hard for bringing up Nolasco as a potential Twin.

Rumors had it that a lot of teams inquired about Nolasco and Stanton last off season but were turned away. Some experts pointed to the fact the Marlins couldn't take another PR hit after trading half their team. Obviously a few months later they traded him so I'm not sure how valid the reports were. He defiantly would have been a solid get though if they were looking to trade him.

Cc-twinsball
09-13-2013, 01:32 PM
It's time to throw some money around or the future. for a team looking torwards the future I think Tanaka is what we need. We have the financial resources. Him and Dariel Abreu should be the twins 2 top targets.

Monkeypaws
09-13-2013, 01:59 PM
What about Roberto Hernandez? I noticed TB has him pitching from the pen. He'd probably be happy to have a chance at starting.