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darin617
09-05-2013, 07:38 PM
So what do you feel are the odds that the Twins will be able to resign Mike Perfrey? His velocity is up in the mid 90's reaching 96 and he has pitched pretty good since the All-Star break.

I was disappointed when the Twins could only sign him to a 1 YR contract and couldn't even get a club option.

Seth Stohs
09-05-2013, 08:12 PM
So what do you feel are the odds that the Twins will be able to resign Mike Perfrey? His velocity is up in the mid 90's reaching 96 and he has pitched pretty good since the All-Star break.

I was disappointed when the Twins could only sign him to a 1 YR contract and couldn't even get a club option.

I'd say ZERO, but I believe there are no absolutes in baseball, so I better say 0.5%

stringer bell
09-05-2013, 08:16 PM
I guess I've seen most of Pelfrey's struggles and missed most of his good outings. From looking at his game-by-game lines, he has improved but remains pretty inconsistent. The trend is going in the right direction, he's not that old and he does have a mid-nineties fastball. I wouldn't object out of hand signing Mike Pelfrey for another year or two.

old nurse
09-05-2013, 08:45 PM
Last 10 games an ERA slightly under 4 with a FIP fairly close to that number. He has 4-5 more starts this year. If that performance level continues to the end of the year I could understand Ryan trying to re-sign him. Depends on a lot of different things. if Ryan wants him. He is not a fastball at the knees kind of pitcher. There are still 4 spots open after the pitcher that is signed. What does Ryan think of the in house options? What else can he sign? At the end of the season it should be a better picture.

Pius Jefferson
09-05-2013, 09:34 PM
I don't think it's worth the risk to bring him back and see him implode a second year in the American League.

TL
09-05-2013, 10:16 PM
I would sign him. He came back very quickly from TJ surgery, arguably too quickly, with poor early results. lately he has been better and I would think closer to whgat to expect next year. plus he is a guy who never complains, wants the ball, and has a good chance to be an inning eater number 4 type starter for a few years. Not saying he is top of rotation material but I think he is a valuable piece with potential upside as he moves further away from surgery.

mike wants wins
09-05-2013, 10:19 PM
Four years before this with awful eras....two with good, you want to roll the dice on his career being th fluke, not the last half of this year?

Kwak
09-05-2013, 10:27 PM
So which of the AAA "pitchers" are you suggesting replace him? Pelfrey is better than the junk shuttling between Rochester and Minneapolis.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-05-2013, 11:49 PM
I'd sign him in a heartbeat, he likes Minnesota, has family in the area and the twins have no better options, give him 2 years, 10 mil.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-05-2013, 11:50 PM
I'd say ZERO, but I believe there are no absolutes in baseball, so I better say 0.5%

Why?

nicksaviking
09-05-2013, 11:53 PM
Why?

He's an optimist.

Shane Wahl
09-06-2013, 12:31 AM
I am currently punching myself in the face.

Pelfrey is NOT good. He has managed to throw hard like he did in yesteryear, but he was never good back then. He has managed to be effective into the 7th inning a few times .. . . . holy hell, stop everything . . . resign him!!!!

No. There is absolutely ZERO future for him beyond 2014 anyway. It is perhaps the case, and it is a BIG perhaps, that he means more than one win for the Twins above a replacement, but he has already stolen millions of bucks from this team with his terrible performance. No more, please. Why is that so crazy? I simply replace him with Liam Hendriks and say here you go. Deal or you get dealt. No one, and I mean no one, is going to TRADE for Mike Pelfrey.

It would seem that the default, no FA addition, zero injury rotation is:

Correia
Deduno
Diamond
Worley
Gibson

The bottom three are not good, but the top two don't belong where they are. I would seek, desperately, to try to trade Correia and Deduno in some kind of trade package involving other players and maybe lower prospects to actually fill the top of the rotation with viable pitching candidates.

I feel like I might end up blogging about the lunacy of signing Mike Pelfrey again for millions of dollars. The whole post would just be me swearing at the stupidity of it. And then swearing some more.

Otwins
09-06-2013, 12:32 AM
I hope they sign Pelfrey. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to throw better the second year after Tommy John surgery. I am not seeing 5 starters better than him.

Shane Wahl
09-06-2013, 12:34 AM
To clarify, I do not mean that Diamond, Worley and Gibson are not good generally. I am not surprised that an injured Diamond and a terribly misused Gibson didn't perform in 2013. Not sure what the issue is with Worley. Anyway, I don't mind, at all, those three in the rotation.

Shane Wahl
09-06-2013, 12:37 AM
I hope they sign Pelfrey. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to throw better the second year after Tommy John surgery. I am not seeing 5 starters better than him.

It keep happening around here . . .

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

WHY is this crazy to some people?

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-06-2013, 12:44 AM
It keep happening around here . . .

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

WHY is this crazy to some people?
So...you don't want to resign the guy who has been pitching much better as of late (after coming back really, really early after TJS) yet you want to give Worley a rotation spot based on what again??

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-06-2013, 12:47 AM
Since coming back from the disabled list in 11 games Pelfrey has a 3.45 ERA, I'm not sure why people think that is some bizarre fluke or whatever.

freshinthehouse
09-06-2013, 05:15 AM
I'd gladly take Pelfrey back at a 2 year deal. Dude has shown he can be decent, which is more than you can see for pretty much any other starter the Twins have in-house. And if i remember correctly i think read that he likes it here, so we shouldn't have to grossly overpay him.

old nurse
09-06-2013, 06:01 AM
I am currently punching myself in the face.

Pelfrey is NOT good. He has managed to throw hard like he did in yesteryear, but he was never good back then. He has managed to be effective into the 7th inning a few times .. . . . holy hell, stop everything . . . resign him!!!!

No. There is absolutely ZERO future for him beyond 2014 anyway. It is perhaps the case, and it is a BIG perhaps, that he means more than one win for the Twins above a replacement, but he has already stolen millions of bucks from this team with his terrible performance. No more, please. Why is that so crazy? I simply replace him with Liam Hendriks and say here you go. Deal or you get dealt. No one, and I mean no one, is going to TRADE for Mike Pelfrey.


.

With a very poor first half of the season, how does fangraphs have him currently at 1.6 wins above replacement?

big dog
09-06-2013, 06:38 AM
It keep happening around here . . .

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

WHY is this crazy to some people?

...so wait...you don't want the Twins to sign him, correct? I'm not sure what you really think about him ;)

Joe A. Preusser
09-06-2013, 07:20 AM
It keep happening around here . . .

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

WHY is this crazy to some people?

But he is good. He has good stuff and his 95mph fastball is a nice changeup from the 89-91 most of our other starters are throwing. 2 years, 10 mil, with a club option for a third year. This guy could put up a sub 4 ERA over that contract, so how exactly is he not worth it? Admittedly I did not follow his career closely before he joined the Twins, but as far as pitching poorly this year at times I give him a pass for coming back from TJ incredibly early. When he's thrown well he has won games for us.


Gibson
Correia
Pelfrey
Diamond/Deduno
Worley

Now you're not just trotting out AAAA filler, that at least is a rotation of MLB pitchers (albeit one made up of 4s and 5s). Now you have the option of adding 2 quality pitchers to the mix and cutting out the two poorest performers to make a very nice rotation. You can't do that if you're constantly giving AAAAers extended tryouts. We need the rotation to be in good shape by 2015 so it's time to get those players in place. Hendriks, Hernandez, et al had nice opportunities to prove they were legit this year and did not do so. No team that wants to be successful can use up more than 1 spot in the rotation trying guys out. 1 at most.

Brandon
09-06-2013, 07:59 AM
I think Pelfry is capable of pitching 180 - 210 innings per season with an era around 4.00. That is exactly the kind of starter the Twins want for their current formula of winning plus cost efficiency. Plus his cost on the free agent market wont be too high. He is worth between 2 year 10 million and 3 year 21 million after this season.

Twins formula for FA pitchers is a pitcher capable of throwing 180-200 innings with era around 4.00 K rate around 5-7 per 9. These pitchers are league average and cost much less then an ace or a Sanchez type pitcher. Have that with an above average close to 3.00 bullpen = a score under 4 after 9 innings played on average. with an offense averaging over 4 runs per game = a likely winning scenario more often then not for that starting pitchers turn....multiply times 5 starters = a potential 90 win season. that's how they do it. they want to find one ace to increase the odds but that isn't important if they have a rotation that is 6 or 7 deep. right now the Twins probably have some of the best 6 7 and 8 starters in the league just not very good 1,2,or 3 starters.

Next season we would have:
Pelfry
Corriea
Diamond
Dedunno (if he isn't injured)
Gibson then Meyer and hopefully May
I am not as bullish at this point for Worely he may have to move back to the National league. I do hope we sign an additional Pitcher this offseason. I think that will depend on how the Twins feel about their offense. This year the offense stepped back. If TR doesn't feel the offense can step forward next year the motivation to get another pitcher may be put off till next offseason.

mike wants wins
09-06-2013, 08:19 AM
You are all ignoring his career results, and assuming as a 30 year old (next year) he is going to be significantly better than he has been during his career. I'm not sure I understand the thinking, do people really think his career numbers are not predictive?

orangevening
09-06-2013, 08:32 AM
...so wait...you don't want the Twins to sign him, correct? I'm not sure what you really think about him ;)

Yeah, I think Pelfrey ate his kids or something. Maybe just forgot to send him a birthday card?

USAFChief
09-06-2013, 08:34 AM
My perspective:

i think both "camps" have some truth on their side in this discussion.

Pelfrey has been pretty decent of late, and might be a decent gamble to be pretty decent going forward for a reasonable price.

on the other hand, his career and his early work this season don't inspire much confidence.

so, I'd be fine with resigning Pelf if he's the 3rd best starter they bring in this winter. If he's the best they add...that's an epic fail, IMO.

Shane Wahl
09-06-2013, 08:53 AM
You are all ignoring his career results, and assuming as a 30 year old (next year) he is going to be significantly better than he has been during his career. I'm not sure I understand the thinking, do people really think his career numbers are not predictive?

Pelfrey is not good and his career numbers show this. And it is this kind of mismanagement of smaller amounts of money that drives me insane about this organization, from Punto to Pelfrey.

mike wants wins
09-06-2013, 09:29 AM
My perspective:

i think both "camps" have some truth on their side in this discussion.

Pelfrey has been pretty decent of late, and might be a decent gamble to be pretty decent going forward for a reasonable price.

on the other hand, his career and his early work this season don't inspire much confidence.

so, I'd be fine with resigning Pelf if he's the 3rd best starter they bring in this winter. If he's the best they add...that's an epic fail, IMO.

I agree with this, there are arguments on both sides of this discussion. I also agree that I will not be pleased if he's their "best" acquisition. I think, don't know, think, that his career is probably more predictive of the future than is a 2-3 month stretch. But, it is certainly possible he can pitch like this for longer, but it is certainly possible he's really a below median pitcher, like his career numbers indicate.

Dave T
09-06-2013, 09:37 AM
So...you don't want to resign the guy who has been pitching much better as of late (after coming back really, really early after TJS) yet you want to give Worley a rotation spot based on what again??
+1. We paid for his recovery year. Now he's worth a multi-year contract.

beckmt
09-06-2013, 09:45 AM
Would not be a big deal if Twins resigned Pelfrey. Twins still need to sign 1-2 FA pitchers that are better than what they have now. Pelfrey is better than Hendriks and some of the other AAAA starters they are rolling out now. I think 1 - 3 years at range of 3/21 would be top end. He has more upside than Corriea.

Mr. Brooks
09-06-2013, 09:51 AM
I'd sign him in a heartbeat, he likes Minnesota, has family in the area and the twins have no better options, give him 2 years, 10 mil.

He is a Scott Boras client. Assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he is right now for another 3 weeks, he's not signing a 2 year deal.
Do you really want to lock yourself into Mike Pelfrey for 4 or 5 years? I don't.

Mr. Brooks
09-06-2013, 09:53 AM
Since coming back from the disabled list in 11 games Pelfrey has a 3.45 ERA, I'm not sure why people think that is some bizarre fluke or whatever.

Maybe because 11 games is a pretty small sample size. Wouldn't you rather take a career worth of data over 11 games?

mike wants wins
09-06-2013, 09:53 AM
Actually,

Kevin Correia Graphs Comparison All Season Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1767&position=P&page=0&players=5203)

KC and Pelfrey are pretty much the same pitcher, though oddly their ERA cycles appear to be on exact opposite up and down cycles.....remember when looking at the graph that Pelfrey did not pitch in 2012 really, so that ERA is not real.

ThePuck
09-06-2013, 09:56 AM
With a very poor first half of the season, how does fangraphs have him currently at 1.6 wins above replacement?

Probably cause FIP is a major component of WAR for Fangraphs (not the only component) and his FIP is 4.14.

'In order to match up with the theory behind WAR for position players, FanGraphs has traditionally used a context-neutral statistic (Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/)) in order to express a pitcher’s value to their team.'

Some people have expressed a dislike for FIP, so it should be hard for them to argue against FIP in debates but the use Fangraphs WAR stat for pitchers to help their point in other debates.

Rosterman
09-06-2013, 10:06 AM
A two-year deal, but at what price. I'm sure his agent will be looking for at least a multi (2) year deal now with an option for a third. Will he get that? I suspect he'll get a one year with a buyout option for a second for sure. And he'll command better than $5 million, but less than $8 million.

It was sure nice of the Twins to pay him a more than decent salary in his Tommy John recovery year. But with the results so far, I would've almost passed and spent the money on signing him for the next two seasons and let him showcase himself with another team, unless you do have a good option of signing him.

My concern is: is there a demand for him? I didn't hear alot about suitors during the trade deadline, and I would be interested to know if he was waiver claimed, and if he was, why the Twins didn't just let him go -- unless they are trying to get him for next year and...too many questions.

The biggest question us fans need to live with: do we want the Twins to spend budget for the sake of spending budget, or do we want to have 2014 be a total rebuilding year and can we live with the ownership paying back their own debt for the stadium quickly and living with lots of empty seats. I would like to think that having one of the worst major league teams in baseball is not a plus when you are hosting the all-star game.

nicksaviking
09-06-2013, 10:49 AM
I'd take Pelfrey over must of the rubbish currently the Twins have to offer. But that isn't the scenario. Pelfrey is the only free agent out of the garbage bag called the Twins rotation. Is Pelfrey better than Worley currently? Yes. But that's not the point, the Twins need a better class of pitcher. Pelfrey is not a better class of pitcher, he's simply one of the better students in the GED class that the Twins roll out every year.

He throws hard but doesn't strike anyone out. Not interested. Most quality teams suffer only one or two starters who aren't able to put up a 7.0 K/9. The Twins, well, we all know the situation. Starting now, they need to exclusively sign starters who can at least be league average when it comes to putting the ball in the catchers glove as opposed to the gloves of the terrible defenders behind them. Hard to do? Tough, get it done just like nearly every other team, or find someone else who can.

70charger
09-06-2013, 10:55 AM
So...you don't want to resign the guy who has been pitching much better as of late (after coming back really, really early after TJS) yet you want to give Worley a rotation spot based on what again??

If you punch yourself in the face enough, it starts to make sense.

nicksaviking
09-06-2013, 11:09 AM
If you punch yourself in the face enough, it starts to make sense.

I don't agree that Pelfrey has been a disaster, well at least not lately, but it's not a question about Pelfrey replacing Worley or Deduno or whoever else from the Twins roster. It's a question about signing Pelfrey instead of acquiring external options A, B or C.

Brandon
09-06-2013, 11:10 AM
Pelfry added a pitch in 2012 a cutter to go with hius sinker. the results of that added pitch was a 19 inning sample size plus this year. If the cutter is still good and the sinker is working as he gets the feel back for that pitch he and his experience in the league has grown over time he can be an above average pitcher....look at how much better Lohse has become as he gained experience over the years.

Also remember the Twins have a formula to winning games at a minimum cost. that is why we are always clamoring for an ace and why we never feel we are going to win in the post season. see below for the pitching formula again. we only go after aces when we develop them and they come from our system otherwise we go for pitchers in our low cost win formula....I challenge anyone to find a more accurate formula for the type of starting pitcher we go for and why we go for that type of pitcher. Pelfry will be resigned this offseason i can almost guarentee it.

Twins formula for FA pitchers is a pitcher capable of throwing 180-200 innings with era around 4.00 K rate around 5-7 per 9 and walk less than 3 per 9 innings. These pitchers are league average and cost much less then an ace or a Sanchez type pitcher. Have that with an above average close to 3.00 bullpen = a score under 4 after 9 innings played on average. with an offense averaging over 4 runs per game = a likely winning scenario more often then not for that starting pitchers turn....multiply times 5 starters = a potential 90 win season. that's how they do it.

Examples of FA targets in the past several years.... Burhle until he got too expensive, Pelfry, Corriea, Baker, Colby Lewis, Livian Hernandez, Pavano, (can you name anyone that doesn't fit the above profile that we targeted as a FA)

nicksaviking
09-06-2013, 11:20 AM
Examples of FA targets in the past several years.... Burhle until he got too expensive, Pelfry, Corriea, Baker, Colby Lewis, Livian Hernandez, Pavano, (can you name anyone that doesn't fit the above profile that we targeted as a FA)

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you that this is HOW the Twins opporate. Speaking for myself at the very least, I disagree that this is how the Twins SHOULD opporate.

For the record, I agree with you and think the Twins are likely to seriously consider re-signing Pelfrey. I just will be disappointed once again that they will not get a higher caliber arm.

TheLeviathan
09-06-2013, 11:21 AM
Chief had it right, Pelfrey isn't the problem. The problem is that the Twins would consider him a solution. If you aren't going to add elite pitching with Pelf as a complement, then roll out a bunch of question marks. You lose games either way, but at least one MIGHT help the future.

mike wants wins
09-06-2013, 11:23 AM
If they signed a FA that pitched to a 4.00 ERA lately (ever under Ryan?), I missed that part....

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-06-2013, 11:58 AM
He is a Scott Boras client. Assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he is right now for another 3 weeks, he's not signing a 2 year deal.
Do you really want to lock yourself into Mike Pelfrey for 4 or 5 years? I don't.

LMAO Pelfrey is not going to command a 4 year contract, Boras client or not.

snepp
09-06-2013, 12:09 PM
Leviathan has it right that Chief has it right. Pelfrey would be just fine...as a secondary (or tertiary) piece to fill out the rotation.

Joe A. Preusser
09-06-2013, 12:13 PM
My perspective:

i think both "camps" have some truth on their side in this discussion.

Pelfrey has been pretty decent of late, and might be a decent gamble to be pretty decent going forward for a reasonable price.

on the other hand, his career and his early work this season don't inspire much confidence.

so, I'd be fine with resigning Pelf if he's the 3rd best starter they bring in this winter. If he's the best they add...that's an epic fail, IMO.

Agreed, although it doesn't have to be this offseason where we add both of the rotation upgrades. We need a solid/great 5 man rotation by 2015, not next year. We can afford to be choosy and bring in that talent during the next two offseasons. Also, Mayer might be ready by 2015 as well, so adding 2 quality arms would give us a nice big three for the playoffs. Any of our current starters can be our 4 and 5 for the regular season.

old nurse
09-06-2013, 01:15 PM
Probably cause FIP is a major component of WAR for Fangraphs (not the only component) and his FIP is 4.14.

'In order to match up with the theory behind WAR for position players, FanGraphs has traditionally used a context-neutral statistic (Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/)) in order to express a pitcher’s value to their team.'

Some people have expressed a dislike for FIP, so it should be hard for them to argue against FIP in debates but the use Fangraphs WAR stat for pitchers to help their point in other debates.

Read Shane's post. Pelfrey is a middle of the pack pitcher this year even factoring in the poor start. So if he is a not good pitcher, how does he end up a middle of the pack pitcher statistic wise? I guess I should have phrased it that way so you would understand what i was asking, not how WAR is calculated. Until someone comes up with something better FIP and WAR is what you have to compare players, dislike or like, it is what is there. It is better than comparing win totals. It is also ironic that Fangraphs states that FIP is better a measuring future performance that measuring the current one yet uses it in their calculations to reflect what kind of season the player is having.

OldTwinky
09-06-2013, 01:23 PM
Pelfrey is so bad even he makes Correia look good.......now think about what that really says......do you still want him back?

ThePuck
09-06-2013, 01:28 PM
Read Shane's post. Pelfrey is a middle of the pack pitcher this year even factoring in the poor start. So if he is a not good pitcher, how does he end up a middle of the pack pitcher statistic wise? I guess I should have phrased it that way so you would understand what i was asking, not how WAR is calculated. Until someone comes up with something better FIP and WAR is what you have to compare players, dislike or like, it is what is there. It is better than comparing win totals.

A couple of questions:

What constitutes 'middle of the pack'?
Does being middle of the pack make one good?

As far as why I wrote what I wrote. Too many people look at ERA as how to rank someone's season. If one looks at ERA, one would say Pelfrey has had a below average season. There's no way around that. If one looks at FIP, it's a different conversation.

I brought up FIP and it's correlation with WAR because you brought up WAR. We had a conversation not so long ago where I was talking about a player's FIP and you blew it off due to correlation between the FIP and ERA being too small....even though we're already dealing with small numbers to begin with. So do we go with FIP or not?

Monkeypaws
09-06-2013, 01:36 PM
Maybe because 11 games is a pretty small sample size. Wouldn't you rather take a career worth of data over 11 games?

Well, the guy did have 2 seasons with winning records, ERAs in the 3s, and over 200 innings pitched. How is that sucky?

mike wants wins
09-06-2013, 01:38 PM
Well, the guy did have 2 seasons with winning records, ERAs in the 3s, and over 200 innings pitched. How is that sucky?

he's also had 4 years with ERA over 4.5.....how is that good?

Monkeypaws
09-06-2013, 02:02 PM
he's also had 4 years with ERA over 4.5.....how is that good?


Yes, but two of those were when he was 22 and 23, shuttling to and from the minors, 93 innings total. Why don't we count 2012 and his ERA of 2.29 as well?

Before this season had had 2 good seasons and 2 not so good as a full-time major league pitcher. People are making it sound like he was atrocious, which is an exaggeration.

Brandon
09-06-2013, 02:33 PM
I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you that this is HOW the Twins opporate. Speaking for myself at the very least, I disagree that this is how the Twins SHOULD opporate.

For the record, I agree with you and think the Twins are likely to seriously consider re-signing Pelfrey. I just will be disappointed once again that they will not get a higher caliber arm.

I think the High Calibre arm is going to be Meyer. So the 2015 rotation would be Meyer/ Pelfry/ Dedunno (at this point if healthy) and hopefully Gibson with one more spot to fill.

2014 rotation is Pelfry/ Corriea/ Dedunno/ Gibson / Diamond, Albers, Logan, DeVries, Worely It would be nice to sign one more pitcher. But why would they with the offense currently in shambles and in transition? 2015 or 2016 is shaping up to be the year we can compete again so the offseason after this one we should expect a major pitcher signing to improve the rotation.

in a simpler term 6 innings of 4.0 era + 3 innings of 3 era = 3.67 earned runs per game. if the offense scores 4.33 runs per game then we should have a winning team and compete (Twins have a cost formula for that too I'll post about later).

mike wants wins
09-06-2013, 02:36 PM
to the point....

career 4.42 ERA, mostly in the NL.

Worse than league average for K every year.
Worse than league avereage in WHIP every year but 1.
Better than average at BB/9

I don't know, I would love it if he was better than league average for 4 years as a Twin, but I'm not convinced. Others are. If they sign him, I hope you are right.

old nurse
09-06-2013, 02:42 PM
A couple of questions:

What constitutes 'middle of the pack'?
Does being middle of the pack make one good?

As far as why I wrote what I wrote. Too many people look at ERA as how to rank someone's season. If one looks at ERA, one would say Pelfrey has had a below average season. There's no way around that. If one looks at FIP, it's a different conversation.

I brought up FIP and it's correlation with WAR because you brought up WAR. We had a conversation not so long ago where I was talking about a player's FIP and you blew it off due to correlation between the FIP and ERA being too small....even though we're already dealing with small numbers to begin with. So do we go with FIP or not?

So far this season in both leagues there are 132 pitchers that have pitched at least 100 innings. Good is a relative term. If Pelfrey is bad, that leaves 65-70 pitchers for 30 teams to call good. It is all relative. Would you call Chris Tillman of the Orioles a good pitcher? Statistics alone doesn't make the pitcher good or bad. If Pelf is bad pitcher using WAR and FIP, then Tillman is one very lucky pitcher as he is currently with a worse WAR and FIP.

golfboy1
09-06-2013, 03:41 PM
I agree with this, there are arguments on both sides of this discussion. I also agree that I will not be pleased if he's their "best" acquisition. I think, don't know, think, that his career is probably more predictive of the future than is a 2-3 month stretch. But, it is certainly possible he can pitch like this for longer, but it is certainly possible he's really a below median pitcher, like his career numbers indicate.

I agree they should do more than just try to sign Pelfrey but I think he is worth a reasonable 2 year deal for 10 or 12 Million. If he wants much more let his walk.

I think he has a chance to pitch to a #4 or maybe even a #3 starter. His stats have been ok since he has come back & built up some arm strength. I think we have to factor in how fast he came back from TJ & that he is at least trending in the right direction. I don't have much hope that Worley, Diamond, Walters, Albers are going to be as good as Pelfrey going forward. I'm afraid Deduno will need surgery .

There aren't a lot of great options for FA starters but I'd like to see them take a run at Hughes & maybe get Josh Johnson. He's high risk but at least he has high upside if he recovers

Shane Wahl
09-06-2013, 03:47 PM
Now signing Pelfrey for TWO years and up to $12 million is on the table.

Have people forgotten the entirety of the season up until a month ago, the majority of Pelfrey's career, his age, his actual future prospects with the team when it is good down the road, etc. etc. etc.?

The Twins could have a full rotation with replacement level pitchers for less than Mike Pelfrey's salary

ashburyjohn
09-06-2013, 04:24 PM
It is perhaps the case, and it is a BIG perhaps, that he means more than one win for the Twins above a replacement,

5467

nicksaviking
09-06-2013, 04:31 PM
I think the High Calibre arm is going to be Meyer. So the 2015 rotation would be Meyer/ Pelfry/ Dedunno (at this point if healthy) and hopefully Gibson with one more spot to fill.

2014 rotation is Pelfry/ Corriea/ Dedunno/ Gibson / Diamond, Albers, Logan, DeVries, Worely It would be nice to sign one more pitcher. But why would they with the offense currently in shambles and in transition? 2015 or 2016 is shaping up to be the year we can compete again so the offseason after this one we should expect a major pitcher signing to improve the rotation.

in a simpler term 6 innings of 4.0 era + 3 innings of 3 era = 3.67 earned runs per game. if the offense scores 4.33 runs per game then we should have a winning team and compete (Twins have a cost formula for that too I'll post about later).

But why sign Pelfrey? Because of the familiarity? There will be plenty of other options, the Twins don't have to settle for him simply because they already have uniforms with his name on them.

This familiarity stuff has aided largely to the stagnation in this organization in my opinion. Not enough coaching, front office, scouting or player turnover occurs considering all the areas in need of repair. No one wants to reach outside of their comfort zone unless their back is against the wall. I don't think a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush when the bird lays an egg like the Twins have been doing three years running.

golfboy1
09-06-2013, 04:50 PM
Now signing Pelfrey for TWO years and up to $12 million is on the table.

Have people forgotten the entirety of the season up until a month ago, the majority of Pelfrey's career, his age, his actual future prospects with the team when it is good down the road, etc. etc. etc.?

The Twins could have a full rotation with replacement level pitchers for less than Mike Pelfrey's salary

Pelfrey hasn't been great but would you really rather have Diamond, Worley ,Walters, Hendriks, Albers or Hernandez . None of them have performed that well & I don't see fantastic upside from any of them.

I'm giving Pelfrey some benefit for coming back to soon. At least he has improved over the 2nd half while nobody else of the above group has stepped forward to claim a spot for 2014.

I've stated I hope they do more than just sign Pelfrey but there is more than one spot open in the rotation. I count Correia & Gibson as definite starters and that's it since I believe Deduno will be out.

Pelfrey has had 2 decent seasons with the Mets & 2 bad seasons. He was a #1 pick (overall 9th) so he was a highly regarded prospect at one time.

I don't think we have to worry that the Twins are going to be so good within a 2 year timeframe that we won't know what to do with Pelfrey. Meyers & possibly Mays are the only 2 SP with high upside that have any chance of being ready within 2 years.


"The Twins could have a full rotation with replacement level pitchers for less than Mike Pelfrey's salary"

I doubt that, unless you want 5 pitchers who suck & have zero potential to not suck. The average MLB starting pitchers salary is over 5 Million Dollars so if you want to get 5 starters for a total of Pelfreys salary I don't predict any real talent among them.

What would you prefer the Twins to do? I'm all for them improving their starting rotation & hope they sign Hughes or someone who is better than Pelfrey but I still think Pelfrey is better than most of the current options. Plus, if he is actually pitching good they could always flip him to a contender at some point.

ashburyjohn
09-06-2013, 06:17 PM
Have people forgotten the entirety of the season up until a month ago, the majority of Pelfrey's career, his age, his actual future prospects with the team when it is good down the road, etc. etc. etc.?

The back of his bubblegum card next spring will be what it will be; all the stats count, including April and May. Ditto for the career line. If we're handing out Cy Young 2013 or Hall Of Fame votes he's going to come up empty.

But we're trying to forecast the coming couple of years. To me, a player achieving MLB-average or better performance are determined by his

talent
experience
health
luck and normal fluctuation

I could include something about my view of the interplay among these but it'd be only marginally pertinent here.

This is Pelfrey's MLB history before the Twins:
age 22 ERA+ 81; 23/78; 24/113; 25/81; 26/107; 27/78; 28/out

The way I read it, age 22-23 he didn't yet have the experience. Age 24 he demonstrated over a full season that he has the talent. Age 25 I will go out on a limb and infer some kind of health issue. Age 26 he again demonstrated MLB level talent. Age 27 I will go out on less of a limb to assume a health issue, because we know that age 28 culminated in Tommy John Surgery.

Now at age 29 he has put up a half-season that was putrid, and then a third of a season (11 starts, not just "a month") that so far has him once again above major-league average in ERA.

So what do we forecast for his age 30-31 seasons? To me, the signs are that he earlier had MLB level talent; doing it twice over full seasons at ages 24 and 26 is IMO no fluke. He has enough experience. Luck is always an unknown.

So the question to me boils down to health - a) have past health issues degraded his talent, and b) will his future health be a good risk? I'm of the opinion that his July/August 2013 is a long enough stretch to confirm his talent remains high enough. What I don't know is his health prognosis:

what's the experience with TJ patients at this future stage of recovery?
was his age 25 blip also the elbow? or does he also have forearm, shoulder, leg, or other weak points that could flare up again?

Bottom line, for forecasting purposes I think Pelfrey is a much tougher nut to crack than just looking at aggregate career or 2013 totals, and a careful look suggests where to look further.

beckmt
09-06-2013, 06:41 PM
Pelfrey should be an option depending on price, but only an option. He is probably better than any of the low end prospects(Diamond, Albers, Hendriks)etc. Deduno looks like a surgery candidate as noted above. That leaves Correira as the only sure option for 2014. Fan base also will demand an upgrade, so money will have to be spent. TR did a decent job last year as look at the signings and the number of failures. This year will be tougher. Hope Gibson is ready to start here next year. Too many bad possibilities so we need to sign some pitchers, Pelfrey could well be one of them.

Brandon
09-06-2013, 06:48 PM
But why sign Pelfrey? Because of the familiarity? There will be plenty of other options, the Twins don't have to settle for him simply because they already have uniforms with his name on them.

This familiarity stuff has aided largely to the stagnation in this organization in my opinion. Not enough coaching, front office, scouting or player turnover occurs considering all the areas in need of repair. No one wants to reach outside of their comfort zone unless their back is against the wall. I don't think a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush when the bird lays an egg like the Twins have been doing three years running.

Why sign Pelfry? 3 reasons. 1. We know he wants to be here and is adamant about that. 2 he is solid enough to resign and 3. we still have other holes in the rotation to fill so we wont be done with just 1 signing so we have to get another pitcher or 2.

I think the Twins are looking for making a solid 1-5 rotation to do that means having average pitchers capable of throwing 180 - 200 innings.

Willihammer
09-06-2013, 07:06 PM
So the question to me boils down to health - a) have past health issues degraded his talent, and b) will his future health be a good risk? I'm of the opinion that his July/August 2013 is a long enough stretch to confirm his talent remains high enough. What I don't know is his health prognosis:

what's the experience with TJ patients at this future stage of recovery?
was his age 25 blip also the elbow? or does he also have forearm, shoulder, leg, or other weak points that could flare up again?

Bottom line, for forecasting purposes I think Pelfrey is a much tougher nut to crack than just looking at aggregate career or 2013 totals, and a careful look suggests where to look further.

Baseball Prospectus has pretty comprehensive injury history on players:

Mike Pelfrey | Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49616)

2006: shoulder strain for month of August
Mar 2009: lower leg strain
Apr 2009: Forearm inflammation
2010: Bilateral knee soreness (ha!)
shoulder again, general arm fatigue, neck, thigh, then the elbow

Pitching is hazardous.

darin617
09-06-2013, 07:28 PM
Pelfrey is not good and his career numbers show this. And it is this kind of mismanagement of smaller amounts of money that drives me insane about this organization, from Punto to Pelfrey.

Why are you so negative? Look at the teams he has played on, the Twins defense is poor by their standards the Twins offense has been quite offensive most of the season in scoring more than a couple of runs a game. If you look at the FA class of pitchers available their are not many pitchers above him in the Twins bargain bin price range. 2YR $12M would be a great deal if he would accept it.
Back to the negativity, if you hate the guy that is your business but you don't need to add multiple posts. Take a deep breath and count to 10 and you should be fine Shane.......

Oxtung
09-06-2013, 07:46 PM
Pelfry added a pitch in 2012 a cutter to go with hius sinker. the results of that added pitch was a 19 inning sample size plus this year.

Pelfrey hasn't thrown a cutter this season according to fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5203&position=P#pitchtype).


Pelfrey hasn't been great but would you really rather have Diamond, Worley ,Walters, Hendriks, Albers or Hernandez . None of them have performed that well & I don't see fantastic upside from any of them.

Yes. They are all several years younger, have a chance to improve, cost nothing, have years of control left and the Twins won't be committed to them long term.


I think the High Calibre arm is going to be Meyer. So the 2015 rotation would be Meyer/ Pelfry/ Dedunno (at this point if healthy) and hopefully Gibson with one more spot to fill.

So Meyer in your scenario seems to be Moses. He will lead us to the Promised Land. Of course Moses don't mean squat when Detroit is rolling with Shiva, Muhammad, Ra and the Flying Spaghetti Monster.


I don't understand the logic in signing Pelfrey. The Twins have several back of the rotation options. In addition every season you can pick up a pitcher on a 1 year contract to fill that role. Why would we want to commit multiple years to him? Is anyone thinking, "Yes, we've got Corriea for a second season! OMG am I glad we signed him to a multi-year deal. Whew!"

What the Twins are missing is about 3 front of the rotation arms. Even if Meyer pans out he isn't going to make us a contender by himself. He needs support.

Acquire a legit front of the rotation starter, look for a potential bounce back starter (J.Johnson seems ideal candidate), try to get a older but legit starter like Kuroda or Colon, or roll with the young guys and maybe one improves. Signing another back of the rotation starter makes no sense.

Brandon
09-06-2013, 10:16 PM
Pelfrey hasn't thrown a cutter this season according to fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5203&position=P#pitchtype).

So Meyer in your scenario seems to be Moses. He will lead us to the Promised Land. Of course Moses don't mean squat when Detroit is rolling with Shiva, Muhammad, Ra and the Flying Spaghetti Monster.


I don't understand the logic in signing Pelfrey. The Twins have several back of the rotation options. In addition every season you can pick up a pitcher on a 1 year contract to fill that role. Why would we want to commit multiple years to him? Is anyone thinking, "Yes, we've got Corriea for a second season! OMG am I glad we signed him to a multi-year deal. Whew!"

What the Twins are missing is about 3 front of the rotation arms. Even if Meyer pans out he isn't going to make us a contender by himself. He needs support.

Acquire a legit front of the rotation starter, look for a potential bounce back starter (J.Johnson seems ideal candidate), try to get a older but legit starter like Kuroda or Colon, or roll with the young guys and maybe one improves. Signing another back of the rotation starter makes no sense.

There are several ways to build a pitching staff. The Twins appear to be focused on a more cost effective plan of average starting and inexpensive deep bullpen, while Detroit is the other way with a deep rotation and thin rotation bullpen. There are other factors that go into a winning team

I am not saying Pelfry is the best signing just a highly likely one and one that fits a pattern that I see the Twins doing.

stringer bell
09-06-2013, 10:23 PM
I would say that the Twins have several back of the rotation starters. Pelfrey is probably more of a sure thing than anyone but Correia. He wouldn't be great, but he would likely pitch a lot of innings.

notoriousgod71
09-07-2013, 12:05 AM
Pelfrey=Pavano

Oxtung
09-07-2013, 12:10 AM
There are several ways to build a pitching staff. The Twins appear to be focused on a more cost effective plan of average starting and inexpensive deep bullpen, while Detroit is the other way with a deep rotation and thin rotation bullpen. There are other factors that go into a winning team

I am not saying Pelfry is the best signing just a highly likely one and one that fits a pattern that I see the Twins doing.

Let's look at the recent American League World Series contenders starting rotations. This is where each team ranked amongst American League teams for the regular season.




ERA
K/9
K/BB
OOPS*


2012 Tigers
2
2
1
5


2011 Rangers
3
1
4
2


2010 Rangers
7
4
7
4


2009 Yankees
5
1
9
4


2008 Rays
2
4
5
5


2007 Red Sox
2
2
5
1


2006 Tigers
1
8
6
2


2005 White Sox
2
9
4
2


2004 Red Sox
3
1
2
1


2003 Yankees
3
1
1
2


Average
3
3.1
4.4
2.8


2013 Twins
15
15
15
15


*OOPS= Opponents OPS.

In order to make the World Series over the last 10 years a great starting pitching staff has been a requirement. They have to be able to limit opponents OPS which is perhaps derived by their strikeouts (this is certainly a debatable point).

The Twins can't shoot for an "OK" rotation with a great bullpen and hope to compete for a World Series. They need front of the rotation pitchers. We hope there are a few 1-3 starters already in the system; Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, etc...; but none of those are a guarantee and most are several years from even debuting with the Twins.

IMO the Twins need to acquire more high upside arms somehow. There seem to be 4 ways to do this. First, and currently easiest probably, is to draft or sign them internationally (not including Cubans) but that puts them even further away than Stewart. Second, they could be traded for, but that doesn't add talent to a system it only changes the position played. Third, the Twins could sign a Greinke or Sanchez in free agency (this could include Cubans and Japanese pitchers as well), but that seems highly unlikely with Ryan at the helm. Fourth, the Twins could attempt to sign some high upside pitchers on short term deals, this could be due to age or injury, and trade them for prospects.

Mike Pelfrey doesn't fit into any of those categories. He isn't good enough to help the Twins long term nor is he good enough to bring back a front of the rotation prospect in a trade.

Shane Wahl
09-07-2013, 12:32 AM
Why are you so negative? Look at the teams he has played on, the Twins defense is poor by their standards the Twins offense has been quite offensive most of the season in scoring more than a couple of runs a game. If you look at the FA class of pitchers available their are not many pitchers above him in the Twins bargain bin price range. 2YR $12M would be a great deal if he would accept it.
Back to the negativity, if you hate the guy that is your business but you don't need to add multiple posts. Take a deep breath and count to 10 and you should be fine Shane.......

If there weren't multiple posts about signing a replacement level or worse pitcher for millions of bucks (and now a "bargain" of 2/$12 million), I wouldn't need to make multiple posts pointing out how terribly silly such a move is. Full stop.

Mr. Brooks
09-07-2013, 08:58 AM
Well, the guy did have 2 seasons with winning records, ERAs in the 3s, and over 200 innings pitched. How is that sucky?

What about the other 4 seasons?

Mr. Brooks
09-07-2013, 09:00 AM
Yes, but two of those were when he was 22 and 23, shuttling to and from the minors, 93 innings total. Why don't we count 2012 and his ERA of 2.29 as well?

Before this season had had 2 good seasons and 2 not so good as a full-time major league pitcher. People are making it sound like he was atrocious, which is an exaggeration.

That's not what I'm saying at all.
I'm simply saying lets not get too attached to a recent 11 game stretch.

Lefty74
09-07-2013, 09:07 AM
I agree with Brandon--There is no cavalry coming to save Twins pitching in 2014. Pelfrey will eat innings and is getting better. Coming off TJ surgery the odds are high that he will be better in 2014. We need pitching, many of the FA suggestions other have made are no better and in most cases worse. He's far from perfect, but he's more than functional.

Mr. Brooks
09-07-2013, 09:28 AM
I agree with Brandon--There is no cavalry coming to save Twins pitching in 2014. Pelfrey will eat innings and is getting better. Coming off TJ surgery the odds are high that he will be better in 2014. We need pitching, many of the FA suggestions other have made are no better and in most cases worse. He's far from perfect, but he's more than functional.

I just don't believe that he can be signed on a 1 year deal.
If you have to sign him to a multi year deal, than this portion of your argument becomes less relevant.

Lefty74
09-07-2013, 09:39 AM
Mr Brooks--I think Terry Ryan should try to sign him to a multi year deal. Again, he's far from perfect, but I just don't see a wave of talent behind him in the farm system or via FA that would be better. It's probably more a sad statement on the current pitching in the farm system; many potential back of the rotation guys and very few front line starters. Just seems to me that we needs some mid-90's guys who can eat innings and he fits the requirments. Won't be winning the Cy Young award, but I believe he'll be pretty good over the next few years.

Kwak
09-07-2013, 11:19 AM
Let's look at the recent American League World Series contenders starting rotations. This is where each team ranked amongst American League teams for the regular season.




ERA

K/9

K/BB

OOPS*



2012 Tigers

2

2

1

5



2011 Rangers

3

1

4

2



2010 Rangers

7

4

7

4



2009 Yankees

5

1

9

4



2008 Rays

2

4

5

5



2007 Red Sox

2

2

5

1



2006 Tigers

1

8

6

2



2005 White Sox

2

9

4

2



2004 Red Sox

3

1

2

1



2003 Yankees

3

1

1

2



Average

3

3.1

4.4

2.8



2013 Twins

15

15

15

15



*OOPS= Opponents OPS.

In order to make the World Series over the last 10 years a great starting pitching staff has been a requirement. They have to be able to limit opponents OPS which is perhaps derived by their strikeouts (this is certainly a debatable point).

The Twins can't shoot for an "OK" rotation with a great bullpen and hope to compete for a World Series. They need front of the rotation pitchers. We hope there are a few 1-3 starters already in the system; Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, etc...; but none of those are a guarantee and most are several years from even debuting with the Twins.

IMO the Twins need to acquire more high upside arms somehow. There seem to be 4 ways to do this. First, and currently easiest probably, is to draft or sign them internationally (not including Cubans) but that puts them even further away than Stewart. Second, they could be traded for, but that doesn't add talent to a system it only changes the position played. Third, the Twins could sign a Greinke or Sanchez in free agency (this could include Cubans and Japanese pitchers as well), but that seems highly unlikely with Ryan at the helm. Fourth, the Twins could attempt to sign some high upside pitchers on short term deals, this could be due to age or injury, and trade them for prospects.

Mike Pelfrey doesn't fit into any of those categories. He isn't good enough to help the Twins long term nor is he good enough to bring back a front of the rotation prospect in a trade.


A very good post--one flawed assumption--that the Twins are trying to build the #1 team (for a season) to be the World Series favorite. Actions from 2000-present indicate that the Twins' plan is to have an average rotation, good bullpen (far cheaper than the inverse), good enough to make the playoffs, --followed by a "ya' never know" attitude--and hope they catch lightning in a bottle during the playoffs. It would require a complete change in management to alter that philosophy.

notoriousgod71
09-07-2013, 01:45 PM
A very good post--one flawed assumption--that the Twins are trying to build the #1 team (for a season) to be the World Series favorite. Actions from 2000-present indicate that the Twins' plan is to have an average rotation, good bullpen (far cheaper than the inverse), good enough to make the playoffs, --followed by a "ya' never know" attitude--and hope they catch lightning in a bottle during the playoffs. It would require a complete change in management to alter that philosophy.

This post and the post that was being replied to by Oxtung are exactly it. Factual evidence over a decade on what it takes to achieve a goal and then the realization that the Twins really are not that interested in spending the money to achieve that goal.

jorgenswest
09-07-2013, 01:58 PM
This post and the post that was being replied to by Oxtung are exactly it. Factual evidence over a decade on what it takes to achieve a goal and then the realization that the Twins really are not that interested in spending the money to achieve that goal.

The Twins had the 9th ranked payroll in 2011 while ranking 13th in team revenue.

notoriousgod71
09-07-2013, 02:30 PM
The Twins had the 9th ranked payroll in 2011 while ranking 13th in team revenue.

And also did not come close to having a single player that exhibited any of the traits of a strong rotation with the exception of Liriano's K/9.

Oxtung
09-07-2013, 02:56 PM
I agree with Brandon--There is no cavalry coming to save Twins pitching in 2014. Pelfrey will eat innings and is getting better. Coming off TJ surgery the odds are high that he will be better in 2014. We need pitching, many of the FA suggestions other have made are no better and in most cases worse. He's far from perfect, but he's more than functional.

Why is functional the goal? Why shouldn't every move be made around returning to contention?

Mr. Brooks
09-07-2013, 03:15 PM
Mr Brooks--I think Terry Ryan should try to sign him to a multi year deal. Again, he's far from perfect, but I just don't see a wave of talent behind him in the farm system or via FA that would be better. It's probably more a sad statement on the current pitching in the farm system; many potential back of the rotation guys and very few front line starters. Just seems to me that we needs some mid-90's guys who can eat innings and he fits the requirments. Won't be winning the Cy Young award, but I believe he'll be pretty good over the next few years.

I couldn't disagree more.
For his career, Pelfrey has a below average ERA+. He's at best a #4 on a bad team, or a #5 on a good team.
The goal should be to get better. How can you get better by just bringing back the same cast from 90 loss teams? Same argument as Morneau, I don't get how bringing back the same cast of characters makes you better.
Here is how you get better.
2014: Sign a #2 or #3 (Lincecum, Johnson, Hughes or Tanaka), promote Gibson to rotation. Promote May and Meyer sometime after the ASB.
2015: Sign or trade for a #1 or #2. Promote Berrios sometime after ASB.

By mid 2015, this gives you a rotation of:
#1/#2 signed/traded for in 2015
Meyer
#2/#3 signed this winter
Gibson
Berrios/May


That still leaves you with the Deduno, Hendriks, Diamond, Worley cast to choose from for depth if someone struggles or get hurts.
You will also have Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Ryan Eades, and a few other prospects (possibly our 2014 top 6 pick), knocking on the door by then too.
Tell me where Pelfrey fits into this rotation if you sign him to a long term contract?

And even if you don't have faith that Ryan will sign any significant FA arms, he still doesn't fit here by mid 2015.
Diamond is not as good as he was in 2012, but he's not as bad as he was this year either.
Even with no upgrades, you could have this rotation by mid 2015:

Meyer
Gibson
Berrios
May
Diamond/Worley/Deduno

And you still have Stewart, Gonsalves, Eades, etc. knocking on the door.

Unless all of our pitching prospects fail, I just can't see any scenario where we are not regretting years 2+ of any long term deal given to Pelfrey.

ashburyjohn
09-07-2013, 05:17 PM
Baseball Prospectus has pretty comprehensive injury history on players:

Mike Pelfrey | Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49616)

2006: shoulder strain for month of August
Mar 2009: lower leg strain
Apr 2009: Forearm inflammation
2010: Bilateral knee soreness (ha!)
shoulder again, general arm fatigue, neck, thigh, then the elbow

Pitching is hazardous.

Thanks. This is great.

He kind of hit the trifecta for the body parts I named. :) Although, looking at the BP page, these were all of short duration. I'd need to be as smart as the Twins trainers to interpret this information.

And speaking of humorous memes like Twins trainers, I did appreciate your highlighting "bilateral". Always good for a laff. If concussions weren't such serious juju, a bilateral joke could probably be coined for Mauer's current woes.

Shane Wahl
09-07-2013, 05:51 PM
If Mauer catches another game this year I would hope that both Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire are fired on the spot. And I am not kidding at all. That would almost have to be a time for the owner to actually step in and say "No."