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Teflon
04-16-2012, 10:47 AM
Assuming Scott Baker's surgery and recovery goes well, which choice should the Twins make regarding his contract in 2013?




[*=1]Pick up his option ($9.25 million)



[*=1]Decline his option, attempt to sign him to a smaller 1-year deal



[*=1]Decline his option, let him sign elsewhere

drbob524
04-16-2012, 10:51 AM
I dont think he should get $9mil next year after a season ending injury, but I would like to see him signed for one more year at a lower price and trade him next year if he's doing well. He's been a fairly solid pitcher, but a little too injury prone for me.

mike wants wins
04-16-2012, 11:01 AM
Given LaVelle's comments and analysis on KFAN and the STrib, I think they'll bring him back for his option price. I would. What else is this team going to spend that money on? It's not like they'll go out and sign a big time, expensive, FA. I heard someplace this weekend that Willingham is their largest FA contract ever.....So, you may as well keep Baker at that price, otherwise that money is just going back in the bank.

Twins Fan From Afar
04-16-2012, 11:03 AM
Because we do not seem to have much major league ready pitching talent set to go next year, I would decline the option and try to get him on a 1-year deal for a little cheaper.

I'll also just add that, considering what we're paying for Pavano this year ($8.5 million), $9.25 million doesn't seem that high for Baker, cosidering his ceiling compared to Pavano's. Unfortunately, we've seen not enough of Baker's ceiling lately.

jharaldson
04-16-2012, 11:16 AM
If I am Scott Baker I leave unless the Twins pick up that option because I do not want my comeback year to be under the supervision of this medical staff. He has already wasted the second half of last year and all of this year on them.

Rosey
04-16-2012, 11:21 AM
There was a comment made during the broadcast of the Yankees/Angels game last night that the Baker injury may be "career ending" - has anyone heard anything to indicate that as likely or was that just wild speculation?

gunnarthor
04-16-2012, 11:24 AM
I don't think the Twins would pick up Baker's option. I could see them having him come back on a one year deal at, say, 4.5m.

Thrylos
04-16-2012, 11:39 AM
There was a comment made during the broadcast of the Yankees/Angels game last night that the Baker injury may be "career ending" - has anyone heard anything to indicate that as likely or was that just wild speculation?

The comment was something like ending his career with the Twins. It assumes that the Twins will no pick up his option or re-sign him.

If I were the Twins, their no way I am paying $9.25M for Baker next season without knowing how he will come back from surgery. An incentive-ladden deal might work. Another thing to note is that the free agent market or SPs next offseason will be pretty large, so the Twins can get more value with that $9.25M....

stringer bell
04-16-2012, 11:47 AM
LEN3's take on Baker's injury is that his surgery is not nearly as serious as TJ. It is more of a clean up than anything. He thinks the odds are very good that he'll make a full recovery and be good as new in 2013. Lavelle made a pretty strong case for picking up the option and if Baker is healthy, the Twins should probably do just that.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-16-2012, 11:57 AM
I would guess the option has to be picked up (or declined) shortly after the World Series. So unless he's proven to be at or near 100% by that time, I would have a hard time making a $9m commitment. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, however, in 2013 for $5-6m (w/ incentives that could push it towards $9m) with a mutual option for 2014 for around $9m.

At the end of the day, I would think there is a very good chance that Baker pitches for the Twins in 2013.

roger
04-16-2012, 12:08 PM
I would guess the option has to be picked up (or declined) shortly after the World Series. So unless he's proven to be at or near 100% by that time, I would have a hard time making a $9m commitment. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, however, in 2013 for $5-6m (w/ incentives that could push it towards $9m) with a mutual option for 2014 for around $9m.

At the end of the day, I would think there is a very good chance that Baker pitches for the Twins in 2013.


Why would Baker agree to anything less than $9.5mm with the Twins? It is likely that Baker is healthy enough to be in Florida and throwing during the FIL in late September/October. So the Twins will have a good indication of how his comeback is looking. If things look good, you either pick up the option or negotiate a multi year deal at less than $9.5mm. If you want to retain him, the safest route for the Twins would be to pick up the option and sign a new deal with him after next spring training.

striker_86
04-16-2012, 12:10 PM
I would guess the option has to be picked up (or declined) shortly after the World Series. So unless he's proven to be at or near 100% by that time, I would have a hard time making a $9m commitment. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, however, in 2013 for $5-6m (w/ incentives that could push it towards $9m) with a mutual option for 2014 for around $9m.

At the end of the day, I would think there is a very good chance that Baker pitches for the Twins in 2013.

I agree, 9 million is a lot to put into someone that isnt proven. Make it an incentive based contract. Hopefully Hendricks can have a solid season (and stay healthy!). Try and get Gibson back for some September work. Next year our Putching staff could look like this (in no particular order). Gibson, Hendricks, Blackburn, Baker, ???

Yoshii
04-16-2012, 12:34 PM
He'll be back for sure.

Adam
04-16-2012, 12:45 PM
If I were the GM, I would decline his option and sign him to a deal that had lots of incentives based on innings pitched. I would offer him a $4 million dollar base contract, and I would give him $750,000 for pitching 100 innings and another $750,000 for each 10 innings he pitches over 100 innings. That way, if he comes back and pitches 200 innings, he'd earn $12.25 million. Maybe you could adjust the figures around a little bit, but if he could pitch the way he has in the past for 200 innings, he'd certainly be worth the $12.25 million.

Top Gun
04-16-2012, 01:38 PM
Baker is done fersure!

whydidnt
04-16-2012, 01:42 PM
I think it's a tough call for the Twins. Coming off the injury and having past injury issues limits his market. I don't think the Twins should exercise the option myself. Consider, a healthy Edwin Jackson getting only a 1 year $11M deal this past offseason. Erik Bedard has a more incriminating injury past, but was healthy for most of 2011 and only got $4.5M. Add in a very crowded, as of now, FA pitching market this coming offseason and it's going to be hard for him to get 9.5 million on the open market. I'd love to see them bring him back for less and don't think he'll get as much anywhere else this off-season. I'd guess he could maybe get 1 year $6.5M or 2-$13, something like that, but teams aren't going to line up to break the bank for a guy. with his injury history.

StormJH1
04-16-2012, 03:51 PM
Given LaVelle's comments and analysis on KFAN and the STrib, I think they'll bring him back for his option price. I would. What else is this team going to spend that money on? It's not like they'll go out and sign a big time, expensive, FA. I heard someplace this weekend that Willingham is their largest FA contract ever.....So, you may as well keep Baker at that price, otherwise that money is just going back in the bank.
I heard that as well, and LaVelle convinced me to do a complete 180 as to how they will approach this next year. Particularly if Blackburn turns out to be hurt (or ineffective all year), what else are they going to do? Blackburn and Hendricks are their only starters under contract for 2013. I don't think they bring Pavano or Liriano back. You can't count on Kyle Gibson or anyone else to be automatically slotted into an MLB rotation for 2013, though it obviously could happen.

Baker is young enough to recover from TJ surgery and be effective again as an MLB pitcher. While $9 million is too much for that type of risk, it's only one year. Realistically, do we think this team is going to go out and sign 3 free agent starting pitchers for next season? Even if they did, it's unlikely they'd be able to sign anybody worth being a #1, #2, or #3 starter. Baker is at least a "potential #2".

Boom Boom
04-16-2012, 04:06 PM
I believe the Twins WILL pick up Baker's option. It's a lot of money, but they're not going to sign any better starters, particularly not on 1-year deals.

Riverbrian
04-16-2012, 08:10 PM
Fortunately... The decision doesn't have to be made right now. The team can sit back and assess before deciding next Thursday.