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gunnarthor
08-27-2013, 08:14 PM
Diamondbacks Designate Jason Kubel: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/diamondbacks-designate-jason-kubel.html)

From 30 hr last year to a .324 slg percent this year. Rough season for him.

jorgenswest
08-27-2013, 08:30 PM
Does it seem like players are declining earlier or at a quicker rate in the last few years?

There was a study about 5 years ago about how players were aging better. The group of players studied 1980-2008 peaked a little later and aged much more gradually compared to pre 1980 players. They were getting as much as two more effective years in their 30s.

I wonder of steroids had any impact on maintaining the level of play later into the 30s. Certainly the conditioning and nutrition must be better in this era. However, the same conditioning and nutrition should also have improved a player in their 20s and decline is relative to individual peak performance.

If we are entering the post steroid era of baseball and players are declining sooner, this will have an impact on decisions about free agent signings.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/image002.png

Thrylos
08-27-2013, 08:43 PM
Does it seem like players are declining earlier or at a quicker rate in the last few years?.

Kubel is 31 and has not really played much this season. Some players need regular play... And 31 is the beginning of the end for most players anyways...

clutterheart
08-27-2013, 08:54 PM
Does it seem like players are declining earlier or at a quicker rate in the last few years?


You are right
As the use of PED's steriods and the like decline, we will see guys age faster. To be frank, its bad for baseball. As the consistent stars decline faster the causal fan could lose interest.

But any team that signs a guy into his 40's is going to look stupid

TheLeviathan
08-27-2013, 10:00 PM
Man that is one steep fall. Yeesh.

USAFChief
08-27-2013, 10:14 PM
Somebody will pick Kubel up over the winter and my guess is he'll return to being a fairly valuable hitter. Players don't often drop off a cliff like that.

old nurse
08-27-2013, 10:54 PM
31 is the beginning of the end for most players anyways...

Some actual proof of your claim would be nice.
What then does anybody on this board complain about the Twins not signing free agents. If it is as you say that players start declining at 31 why bother signing a declining player?

Shane Wahl
08-28-2013, 12:40 AM
Jason Kubel can be a DH for 3 or so years with solid production. Boston might be a good spot for 2014 and beyond.

Seth Stohs
08-28-2013, 06:19 AM
Some actual proof of your claim would be nice.
What then does anybody on this board complain about the Twins not signing free agents. If it is as you say that players start declining at 31 why bother signing a declining player?

This is always my point. Most free agents are 30-31 years old. There's a reason that most free agent signings don't pan out as hoped.

Thrylos
08-28-2013, 06:33 AM
Some actual proof of your claim would be nice.
What then does anybody on this board complain about the Twins not signing free agents. If it is as you say that players start declining at 31 why bother signing a declining player?

Proof? Here is an in dept study: Part 1 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/) and Part 2 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-2/).

And here is a graph from the same source:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/image003.png


And if you like another metric, here is this table from here (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/peak_age_by_length_of_career/)(short and sweet):

Here’s the total WAR of ALL nonpitchers by age, of players born since Ruth’s birth year (1895):
Age WAR
20 18
21 168
22 470
23 1,120
24 1,723
25 2,383
26 2,875
27 3,206 <--
28 3,114
29 3,042
30 2,683
31 2,453
32 2,054
33 1,580
34 1,179
35 889
36 563
37 423
38 224
39 142
40 87
41 18
42 18
43 12


hope that the point is made (with data, not "gut feelings")
Very select players decline slower, but 31-32 is the downside for all pretty much...

Pitchers are slightly different beasts. Both of those are for position players.

Why someone would sign declining players? Some teams do not do, other than in supporting roles. Ask Tampa. What people do, does not always make sense

And does not make sense to keep players in the minors during their early peak years to gain service time for late peak and decline years...

old nurse
08-28-2013, 08:20 AM
Pitchers are slightly different beasts. Both of those are for position players.



Thank you for your work.

A while back I looked at pitchers who had an average WAR of 16 for 4 years. Over that last 25 years there was about 100 of them. With the exception of the injury for extended period of time pitchers, the age at when they fell below a 3 was generally about 34. Once they declined they didn't come back except the known PED users. The injured pitchers had a spotty record.

Thrylos
08-28-2013, 08:41 AM
Thank you for your work.

A while back I looked at pitchers who had an average WAR of 16 for 4 years. Over that last 25 years there was about 100 of them. With the exception of the injury for extended period of time pitchers, the age at when they fell below a 3 was generally about 34. Once they declined they didn't come back except the known PED users. The injured pitchers had a spotty record.

Here (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-aging-curves-introduction/)is something from fangraphs, that actually is trying to answer the pitcher aging question (but the methodology is flawed.) If you take it at face value, you'd think that the peak is at 19-20 ;) The problem is with size bias in that most of the 19 and 20 year olds who made the majors were excellent, but they are few of them. So someone needs to do regressions and plot career peaks and/or normalized data (like % of league; because the many sucky 28 year olds drive down the age group, compared to the few sucky 19 and 20 year olds), not the sum/average of performance of players of a particular age.

The math is tough, so it is kinda of a hard problem...

drjim
08-28-2013, 09:04 AM
Interesting stuff. I wonder what impact a catastrophic injury has on the ageing curve.

Thrylos
08-28-2013, 09:09 AM
Interesting stuff. I wonder what impact a catastrophic injury has on the ageing curve.

little because they are so small samples. The curve is actually calculated based on differences in performance in pairs of ages (eg 20/21, 21/22, 22/23 etc.) so it is normalized for individual players who might be outliers one way or another.

mnfanforlife
08-28-2013, 09:15 AM
You are right
As the use of PED's steriods and the like decline, we will see guys age faster. To be frank, its bad for baseball. As the consistent stars decline faster the causal fan could lose interest.

So, cleaning up the steroid use is going to cause fans to lose interest??
I disagree.

StormJH1
08-28-2013, 11:38 AM
You are right
As the use of PED's steriods and the like decline, we will see guys age faster. To be frank, its bad for baseball. As the consistent stars decline faster the causal fan could lose interest.

But any team that signs a guy into his 40's is going to look stupid

There may well be a link between PED's and the popularity of the game. If individual longevity were correlated to the popularity of a sport, how do you explain the NFL, where star players burn out more quickly than any other sport? RB's have an avg life span of 3 years in the NFL.

I think the ability to hit a round ball with a round bat at 90mph, and to do it with statistical consistency that we deem acceptable at an MLB level is just a very fleeting thing. Kubel can still play, but if he's not hitting .270 with power, his skill set is really quite limited. He can't run, and he's certainly not an asset in the field.

It's easy to say "oh, he can just go to the AL and DH", but there's only 15 full-time DH jobs in the AL, and the expectations for a pure DH are higher than any other position.

drjim
08-28-2013, 12:42 PM
There may well be a link between PED's and the popularity of the game. If individual longevity were correlated to the popularity of a sport, how do you explain the NFL, where star players burn out more quickly than any other sport? RB's have an avg life span of 3 years in the NFL.

I think the ability to hit a round ball with a round bat at 90mph, and to do it with statistical consistency that we deem acceptable at an MLB level is just a very fleeting thing. Kubel can still play, but if he's not hitting .270 with power, his skill set is really quite limited. He can't run, and he's certainly not an asset in the field.

It's easy to say "oh, he can just go to the AL and DH", but there's only 15 full-time DH jobs in the AL, and the expectations for a pure DH are higher than any other position.

There are players in the nfl other than qbs?

diehardtwinsfan
08-28-2013, 04:52 PM
Didn't he still have a year left on his contract?

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 10:51 AM
Didn't he still have a year left on his contract?

2014 was a team option. $1 million buyout.

James
08-30-2013, 10:56 AM
And Kubel is back in the AL Central. He's been traded to Cleveland:

Indians Acquire Jason Kubel: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/indians-acquire-jason-kubel.html)

Siehbiscuit
08-30-2013, 11:13 AM
Proof? Here is an in dept study: Part 1 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/) and Part 2 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-2/).

And here is a graph from the same source:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/image003.png



Take this for what it's worth as I could be COMPLETELY reading these examples wrong.

I like this first graphic and example better than the WAR one. Nothing against WAR at all, but the first looks directly at the players age 'X' season and looks at it independently. WAR makes it cumulative. There may be 25 players in there age 34 season this year in all of baseball compared to 50 24 year olds. If they had an identical WAR of 2 per player wouldn't the age 34 total be 50 and the 24 year olds equal 100? Does that make those in an age 24 season better than their 34 year old counterparts? On the average, I wouldn't think so. Cutting older, low upside players for promising prospects will always be apart of the game so the WAR example is a little misleading unless it could be averaged per capita somehow.

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 11:23 AM
So the D'backs decided to take whatever they could get for a player who was no longer part of their future plans, even if they had to eat most of the salary to get it done?
Hmmm, interesting concept.
Someone explain to me how Jason Kubel and his .612 OPS has trade value, but Justin Morneau has none?

James
08-30-2013, 11:35 AM
So the D'backs decided to take whatever they could get for a player who was no longer part of their future plans, even if they had to eat most of the salary to get it done?
Hmmm, interesting concept.
Someone explain to me how Jason Kubel and his .612 OPS has trade value, but Justin Morneau has none?
Arizona threw in a ton of cash along with Kubel. They're paying the rest of his salary and including the cash to buy out his contract option as well. With all that, they're still only getting a "fringe" prospect. So, it might not be a great return.

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 11:38 AM
Arizona threw in a ton of cash along with Kubel. They're paying the rest of his salary and including the cash to buy out his contract option as well. With all that, they're still only getting a "fringe" prospect. So, it might not be a great return.

That is entirely my point.
Taking "something" rather than nothing, even if it's not great, and even if you have to pay most or all of the salary, rather than just letting him walk for nothing. What a novel concept. I'll bet Diamondback forums are outraged right now that Kevin Towers didn't "stick to his guns" and get a better prospect.

kab21
08-31-2013, 10:45 AM
Kubel has pretty much no value to the DBacks. He probably isn't even playable considering AZ's OF depth.

Morneau still has value to the Twins. it's one thing to DFA (and get basically nothing back) a bad player that has been part of your team for 2 years and completely sucked for one of them. It's another to DFA one team's favorite players of the last decade that is actually better than any option they have. Making that move to get a fringe prospect and save a 200K doesn't do anything for the org and adds to the negative PR (casual fans) for the club.

Badsmerf
09-01-2013, 01:40 PM
As much as I wouldn't be opposed to adding Kubel, all he'd be doing is taking AB's from young guys. I'd almost rather have him than Willingham though.

Thegrin
09-01-2013, 01:58 PM
If the "youth" is a Presley, Thomas, Ramirez or Mastroianni, I'd rather see a proven hitter like Kubel, Willingham or Doumit. None of these should be played before Arcia or Parmalee. Colabello is too old to be considered "youth". He is a stopgap player at best, and a mighty poor one, so far.