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John Bonnes
08-27-2013, 08:09 AM
I just read a story about a team in a similar boat as the Twins - the 2013 Chicago Cubs. The author was wondering "how do we as fans judge a rebuilding effort (http://chicagosidesports.com/grasping-at-air-assessing-the-cubs-rebuilding/)?"

He notes a few setbacks: first, "Other than a few scattered years, the Chicago Cubs have pretty much been building or rebuilding since the Taft administration." Also he points out that the two biggest hopes for their future, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, "have had wildly dissappointing seasons."

But he sees the Cubs as doing fairly well overall. He finds hope in:
- an improving farm system
- longtime problems are being addresses, like fielding and plate patience
- they've mostly been competetive.

So how do we judge the Twins rebuilding effort? I see a lot of parallels.

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:29 AM
Long post deleted, just not worth it.

old nurse
08-27-2013, 10:11 AM
This year the team saw Dozier and Florimon pick up their games. Next year would be Arcia, Hicks and Gibson., maybe Calabello.
The similarities are the hit a misses without anyone really jumping out to be a superstar to carry the team.

Badsmerf
08-27-2013, 10:55 AM
Judging a rebuild is tough. Right now the Twins look to have hit on a bunch of players recently (with the exception of starting pitching... for now). The positional talent coming up is phenomenal. I consider things to be moving forward in the rebuild if the organization looks to be improving; which I believe it is.

Rosterman
08-27-2013, 11:05 AM
As a fan, I do want to see a good game, in which the players are performing and enjoying themselves, and the overall string of games remain somewhat competitive. It is hard to view a game when you are down a massive amount in the first few innings, or the players don't make plays, or the team just doesn't hit (move runners around, drive in runs more often than not, take pitches correctly and get on base, maybe a running game.

It is also nice when there are players you get excited about. Perkins in one, now...of course Mauer (and Morneau). That's about it. It's nice when a new guy comes up (remember how Gomez overshadowed Young, the love many had for Revere, even getting behind an underdog like Punto).

To sound like a Twins commercial pitchman: "Let's root root root for Thomas, Collabaro, Ramirez and Doumit." Not.

I will admit the 2013 free-agent class was an overall bust, in many ways. A rebuilding team does sign big and small free agents, some with the hopes of hanging around for more than a year, some that you can flip for a prospect. You invest that money (that never carries over) for on-field product that you can hopefully trade off for future product.

The Twins, as many have said, have failed miserably in identifying players to trade within arbitration coming off great years, and doing something, anything, with potential free agents that more than likely won't resign.

They do identify replacement value players that get them along for a year or two (if we do get a third season out of Fein and Burton, we can all applaud). But like the aforementioned pitchers, and the Thomasas and Ramirezes and even Florimons...the 25th and 41st players from other organizations that are just on the field while our draftees develop, the Twins need to recognize that these re sellable commodities sooner rather than later.

Prospects are tough. We all wanted to root root root for Aaron Hicks, and then we ended up shielding out eyes. Gibson was to be the second-coming of great pitching but almost made you yearn for Hendriks. Both can still pull out the stops and be stellar next season, or in 2015...they have that long of a leash.

But a rebuilding team needs to play the game. Needs to have you pay attention to what is happening on the field, not the scoreboard or what beer or brat you yearn for next. You also want players to applaud when they come to the plate and get a hit or field a ball nicely. You want pitchers that make you applaud at the end of an inning or when their bumper music plays during their bullpen walk.

You also want to be behind management. When they come out after-the-fact and say their general manager had more money to spend but didn't, and the team is tanking...well, you can still spend...international signing bonus money, play the waiver wire some more DURING the season and grab those 26th and 41st younger players and run them thru waivers again so you can keep them in your system. If you have a weakness on the field (two outfield spots, three infield spots, designated hitter) go ahead an do a waiver claim for a big future free-agent gun and have them hit to put some fans in the seats, and maybe you might even resign them for next year. If you aren't going to advance anyone from the sub minors, let us see Byrd in the outfield or some aging pitcher throwing strikes. I would rather see you spend some money to put butts in the seats rather than drag out P.J. Walters or have Ramirez/Thomas out there shagging balls...none of whom SHOULD be around in 2014.

I want to see a team of replacement level players, I can go watch the Saints. I want to see major league ball, I want to see a team playing hard, with developing players that may/may not be the future of the franchise.

messier
08-27-2013, 01:39 PM
This isn't a rebuild. The Twins are going to surprise a lot of people this season. Oh wait.....

spycake
08-27-2013, 02:11 PM
Is Terry Ryan's previous regime a better parallel? Could the 2013 Twins be like the 1997 Twins? They both have one star position player (Knoblauch and Mauer) and not a lot else on offense, except a bunch of guys a few years away in the minors. The 2013 Twins have the better bullpen, but don't have anything like Radke (or even Tewksbury) in the MLB rotation. Acquired in the 1997-98 offseason, could Joe Mays and Eric Milton be like our current Trevor May and Alex Meyer?

Taking that view, it could be ~3 more years before the Twins see competitiveness, given reasonable success at building from within.

PseudoSABR
08-27-2013, 03:05 PM
Is Terry Ryan's previous regime a better parallel? Could the 2013 Twins be like the 1997 Twins? They both have one star position player (Knoblauch and Mauer) and not a lot else on offense, except a bunch of guys a few years away in the minors. The 2013 Twins have the better bullpen, but don't have anything like Radke (or even Tewksbury) in the MLB rotation. Acquired in the 1997-98 offseason, could Joe Mays and Eric Milton be like our current Trevor May and Alex Meyer?

Taking that view, it could be ~3 more years before the Twins see competitiveness, given reasonable success at building from within.That's a pretty unfair comparison. You're totally ignoring the elite positional depth in the minors. The Twins don't need to trade Mauer to restock the minor leagues. We're probably closer to that 2000 team currently than the 1997 team, imho.

nicksaviking
08-27-2013, 03:20 PM
External rebuilds are going to be poor comprables I'd imagine. The Twins have a strong system as the Cubs do, but by all accounts, the Cubs plan on being big players in free agency and they are not shy about chasing every international player of any variaty worth a damn.

Teams like the A's and Rays continually rebuild by moving players at their peak and by taking advantage of every and any statistical tool available to make sure they are as informed as possible.

Spycake is right, the only rebuild comparasion is probably past Twins teams.

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 03:26 PM
How long did the last rebuild take? I only have so many years left.....

howieramone
08-27-2013, 03:39 PM
External rebuilds are going to be poor comprables I'd imagine. The Twins have a strong system as the Cubs do, but by all accounts, the Cubs plan on being big players in free agency and they are not shy about chasing every international player of any variaty worth a damn.

Teams like the A's and Rays continually rebuild by moving players at their peak and by taking advantage of every and any statistical tool available to make sure they are as informed as possible.

Spycake is right, the only rebuild comparasion is probably past Twins teams.

I wouldn't start patting the lovable losers on the back quite yet. The owner is of the newer variety and hasn't tipped his hand yet. I just found out they have some type of stadium issue also.

Give Theo credit for building a strong farm system, but how big a deal is it, signing 4 of the top 30 16 year-old international prospects. What is the likelihood they will be in the top 30 at 18? The top Cuban they signed is in Class A.

Shane Wahl
08-27-2013, 03:53 PM
How long did the last rebuild take? I only have so many years left.....

Has it even started yet? Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Correia, Pelfrey . . .

ashburyjohn
08-27-2013, 04:00 PM
Has it even started yet? Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Correia, Pelfrey . . .

They don't rebuild, they only reload. :)

nicksaviking
08-27-2013, 04:07 PM
I wouldn't start padding the lovable losers on the back quite yet. The owner is of the newer variety and hasn't tipped his hand yet. I just found out they have some type of stadium issue also.

Give Theo credit for building a strong farm system, but how big a deal is it, signing 4 of the top 30 16 year-old international prospects. What is the likelihood they will be in the top 30 at 18? The top Cuban they signed is in Class A.

While they certainly could be patted on the back for their aggressive approach to putting a competitive team back on the field, I didn't pat them on the back. I simply stated they are different than the Twins in the fact that reports have them being agressive this offseason which would match their agressive approach to international free agency. How is that even debatable?

Additionally, why do I have the feeling that if Terry Ryan signed 4 of the top 30 international prospects you would be throwing that around as proof that he is the best GM in the league?

drjim
08-27-2013, 04:15 PM
While they certainly could be patted on the back for their aggressive approach to putting a competitive team back on the field, I didn't pat them on the back. I simply stated they are different than the Twins in the fact that reports have them being agressive this offseason which would match their agressive approach to international free agency. How is that even debatable?

Additionally, why do I have the feeling that if Terry Ryan signed 4 of the top 30 international prospects you would be throwing that around as proof that he is the best GM in the league?

I do not if the Cubs are aggressive as you think in putting a competitive team back on the field. They are already preparing their fans for another 90 loss season next year.

We got mired in day to day details, but I imagine an outsider looking at the Cubs and Twins rebuild over the past two seasons would see pretty much the same results. And they would more or less be right.

Monkeypaws
08-27-2013, 04:25 PM
The rebuild will only come as far as starting pitching and clutch hitting will take it. Until they find guys that can do those two things, they will stink.

howieramone
08-27-2013, 04:30 PM
While they certainly could be patted on the back for their aggressive approach to putting a competitive team back on the field, I didn't pat them on the back. I simply stated they are different than the Twins in the fact that reports have them being agressive this offseason which would match their agressive approach to international free agency. How is that even debatable?

Additionally, why do I have the feeling that if Terry Ryan signed 4 of the top 30 international prospects you would be throwing that around as proof that he is the best GM in the league?

I don't have a clue. I prefer my baseball players American made.

Badsmerf
08-27-2013, 05:16 PM
The rebuild will only come as far as starting pitching and clutch hitting will take it. Until they find guys that can do those two things, they will stink.
David Ortiz and Derek Jeter will be available soon.... While we're at it we should tickle goats and sprinkle chalk in the showers.

Thrylos
08-27-2013, 05:41 PM
So how do we judge the Twins rebuilding effort? I see a lot of parallels.

I do not see many parallels in the most basic stuff:

The Cubs had a wholesale rebuilding effort of their front office, their scouting, player development, minor league and major league staff. The Twins still have folks around who have been with the Twins since Pohlad (the dad) bought the team.

So, frankly, the Twins' "rebuilding" is "rearranging".

And, yes, on paper their farm system is better, thanks to Bill Smith's international signings and to high picks due to suckage. But the key is, can the ones who managing and leading the club, deal with it and bring a World Championship? Because they have not done it in the past...

And, for truth's sake a reality should be mentioned: the Twins have had a worse record with Ryan as the GM in each of his stints, than with both of his predecessors... Not the guy one should trust to turn a team around (for better), if one looks at things objectively...

cmb0252
08-27-2013, 06:21 PM
The rebuilding process takes patience and a good understanding about prospects. The fact people have already written off Hicks/Gibson shows the lack of both of those things.

I agree with most that the Twins rebuild and the Cubs rebuild is different. Not in the fact that they both suck but the fact how aggressive the Cubs front office is while ours is passive. Both teams are going to finish in the bottom 10 in baseball...again....for a third year...so we don't yet know who's rebuild is going better. On paper it looks like the cubs with their badger like aggressive approach. Time will tell.

TheLeviathan
08-27-2013, 06:29 PM
The rebuilding process takes patience and a good understanding about prospects. The fact people have already written off Hicks/Gibson shows the lack of both of those things.

I agree with most that the Twins rebuild and the Cubs rebuild is different. Not in the fact that they both suck but the fact how aggressive the Cubs front office is while ours is passive. Both teams are going to finish in the bottom 10 in baseball...again....for a third year...so we don't yet know who's rebuild is going better. On paper it looks like the cubs with their badger like aggressive approach. Time will tell.

I would say right now that the Twins have a significant edge jut because of how elite Buxton and Sano are as prospects.

But you ar right....with their aggressiveness they might close that gap quickly. Which is frustrating given that the Twins have a lot more room for aggressiveness.

diehardtwinsfan
08-27-2013, 07:16 PM
There are things about a rebuild that you can judge during the rebuild, but to be fair, you really cannot judge it until you see the final product. I think it's fair to say that Terry Ryan is acquiring prospects and not rushing their development, though to an extent he's sacrificing the product on the field a bit, and I don't think that's accidental either.

That said, the end result will be what the final product looks like. If Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Meyer, and Rosario turn out to be busts, this team is going to be a cellar dweller for the better part of the decade. If they turn out to be stars, the Twins will be serious contenders for a good chunk of the next decade. Time will tell.

howieramone
08-27-2013, 07:28 PM
There are things about a rebuild that you can judge during the rebuild, but to be fair, you really cannot judge it until you see the final product. I think it's fair to say that Terry Ryan is acquiring prospects and not rushing their development, though to an extent he's sacrificing the product on the field a bit, and I don't think that's accidental either.

That said, the end result will be what the final product looks like. If Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Meyer, and Rosario turn out to be busts, this team is going to be a cellar dweller for the better part of the decade. If they turn out to be stars, the Twins will be serious contenders for a good chunk of the next decade. Time will tell.

Completely agree. It really is that simple.

Alex
08-27-2013, 07:30 PM
I have a hard time with this rebuild. I like the depth of the farm system, but I've been very frustrated with the approach to free agency, which then bleeds into their trading. They don't acquire talent that might interest another team at the deadline and haven't really sold high on anyone in the last couple of years.

Alex
08-27-2013, 07:33 PM
Oh, and the really frustrating thing is to see a future hall of famer prime years wasted during this rebuild that is going to take longer because of that low risk approach to free agency and an inability to sell high on veterans.

nicksaviking
08-27-2013, 07:37 PM
I don't have a clue. I prefer my baseball players American made.

Speechless. I seriously hope this is a joke.

We'll see how similar these rebuilds look come December when the Cubs have big money offers out to Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury.

jorgenswest
08-27-2013, 09:23 PM
Has it even started yet? Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Correia, Pelfrey . . .

This. Plus...

No rebuild yet. Just a bad team. You don't put up your oldest roster in 15 years and call it a rebuild. You don't extend guys like Doumit and call it a rebuild. All that does is take away at bats from guys who could be part of the solution.

1999 was a rebuild. 1982 was a rebuild.

The decisions of 2012-2013 just continue a cycle of mediocrity.

Will 2014 be the beginning of the rebuild?

Note: The team age this year just fell a tenth below the 2010 mark. That relative high age roster mark in 2010 combined with little ready in the system should have been a huge red flag to the front office.

USAFChief
08-27-2013, 09:46 PM
This. Plus...

No rebuild yet. Just a bad team. You don't put up your oldest roster in 15 years and call it a rebuild. You don't extend guys like Doumit and call it a rebuild. All that does is take away at bats from guys who could be part of the solution.

1999 was a rebuild. 1982 was a rebuild.

The decisions of 2012-2013 just continue a cycle of mediocrity.

Will 2014 be the beginning of the rebuild?

Note: The team age this year just fell a tenth below the 2010 mark. That relative high age roster mark in 2010 combined with little ready in the system should have been a huge red flag to the front office.
Who is Doumit taking ABs from?

TheLeviathan
08-27-2013, 10:03 PM
Who is Doumit taking ABs from?

Eduardo Escobar. We can start that low on the totem pole, even he has more of a chance to be a long-term contributor.

Basically anyone under 27 that has even remote possibilities of being a competent player. He, like several other players, should've been moved when they had value.

darin617
08-27-2013, 10:10 PM
When have the Twins said they were rebuilding? What Houston did is what a rebuild is supposed to be. When you look at the the Twins roster there are way to many veterans here that should have been traded or DFA. Also, A big key to a rebuild would be some actual pieces to build around. It's pretty sad when your best player is not healthy and your only young player that is worth keeping is Brian Dozier.

USAFChief
08-27-2013, 10:26 PM
Eduardo Escobar. We can start that low on the totem pole, even he has more of a chance to be a long-term contributor.




Are you advocating Escobar at DH, C, or RF, or did I miss the time Doumit spent at middle infield this year?

It's possible you're thinking of Doug Bernier. He is stealing ABs from Eduardo Escobar.

TheLeviathan
08-27-2013, 10:32 PM
Are you advocating Escobar at DH, C, or RF, or did I miss the time Doumit spent at middle infield this year?

It's possible you're thinking of Doug Bernier. He is stealing ABs from Eduardo Escobar.

If Escobar has to play DH, so be it. Otherwise, Parmalee is down in AAA, there's a clear guy he's blocking. Play Escobar at third and put Plouffe's awful glove at DH.

Any way you cut it, his putrid defense and his rapidly approaching sub-700 OPS aren't providing anything now or in the future.

old nurse
08-27-2013, 10:46 PM
If Escobar has to play DH, so be it. Otherwise, Parmalee is down in AAA, there's a clear guy he's blocking. Play Escobar at third and put Plouffe's awful glove at DH.

Any way you cut it, his putrid defense and his rapidly approaching sub-700 OPS aren't providing anything now or in the future.

Advocating Eduardo Escobar with a career OPS of .600? I wished I could belive you were joking.

old nurse
08-27-2013, 10:49 PM
There really won't be a rebuild until you can identify a number one starter for the team.

ashburyjohn
08-27-2013, 11:06 PM
Advocating Eduardo Escobar with a career OPS of .600? I wished I could belive you were joking.

He's better than his numbers.

(I actually still believe he has potential to give acceptable offense for a middle infielder.)

jorgenswest
08-27-2013, 11:48 PM
Who is Doumit taking ABs from?

Maybe they give a shot to a minor league free agent. Maybe they make a minor trade for a Gomes or Lobaton. Maybe they go with Hermann. Maybe they give Parmelee a regular shot as a starter with longer stretches in the starting line up. Arguing specifics just distracts from the decision making process.

The Twins made the decision to sign Ryan and extend him. That's fine. He is a good guy. Great to have in the clubhouse. It just isn't a decision that is consistent with a rebuilding plan.


If they were rebuilding, they make a different decision.

Shane Wahl
08-28-2013, 12:20 AM
Who is Doumit taking ABs from? Well, Chris Parmelee is down in AAA. That's a start. I don't even understand this question? The answer is obvious. There are others beyond Parmelee. I think the Escobar reference was just to make a point, by the way. There is no value in playing Ryan Doumit. Sorry.

Shane Wahl
08-28-2013, 12:24 AM
They aren't rebuilding at all. They sign stop-gap pitchers that can't be traded instead of investing in FAs to keep if successful or to trade for value. There is straight-up cheapskating going on. Full stop. And, on top of that, there seems to be a weird PR thing about trading long-standing players or players who "LOVE" the Twins (Morneau and Doumit, respectively). I still can't get my mind around this Morneau thing. He is a FREE AGENT to be signed by somebody anyway. Yet they won't pay his salary to get some Sulbaran-lite prospect? So they just pay his 2013 salary . . .

USAFChief
08-28-2013, 12:37 AM
So far, Doumit is taking ABs from Parmelee, "others beyond Parmelee," Escobar, and "maybe they make a minor trade."

I could possibly accept Parmelee, although IMO there are plenty of ABs available for Parmelee, and the person most hurting Parmelee isn't Doumit, it's Parmelee.

The rest of that list...well, to be charitable it's rather underwhelming, for something so obvious.

Shane Wahl
08-28-2013, 01:02 AM
Doumit has been taking at bats away from Parmelee, Herrmann, Colabello, and Hicks just on a basic level, USAF Chief. Is he actually better than or worth more going forward in the future? CLEARLY, not. Now add in at bats for callus like Pinto, Romero, or Escobar, for example.

I don't get your stubbornness about a few different issues. It just seems crazy to me.

howieramone
08-28-2013, 04:52 AM
Doumit is a better player than Parmelee, Herrman, Colabello, Pinto, Romero, and Escobar. It's their job to take away bats from him and not the other way around. None of the 6 are anyway near solidifying their spot with the Twins in the short or long term. Also, at some level the Twins are still trying to win. Pure and simple, Doumit gives us the best chance to win right now, and we are trying to win right now.

There is no one way to rebuild. Every single decision made does not need to reflect the teams rebuilding mode, which is in fact quite fluid.

Alex
08-28-2013, 06:42 AM
Doumit is a better player than Parmelee, Herrman, Colabello, Pinto, Romero, and Escobar. It's their job to take away bats from him and not the other way around. None of the 6 are anyway near solidifying their spot with the Twins in the short or long term. Also, at some level the Twins are still trying to win. Pure and simple, Doumit gives us the best chance to win right now, and we are trying to win right now.



I like Doumit from a flexibility standpoint, but, wow, if we really don't have a player that is younger and more likely part of the future that we don't want to give playing time to on a regular basis over his putrid hitting and horrible defense, the Minnesota Twins are in an incredibly bad state.

old nurse
08-28-2013, 06:50 AM
I could possibly accept Parmelee, although IMO there are plenty of ABs available for Parmelee, and the person most hurting Parmelee isn't Doumit, it's Parmelee.



There are other players shuttled back and forth to the minors that the only thing limiting their play at the major league level is themselves. If Collabello or Parmelee produced at a major league level, they could have paid Morneau to go away for a less than C level prospect that is better than their numbers?

Thrylos
08-28-2013, 06:57 AM
Doumit is a better player than Parmelee, Herrman, Colabello, Pinto, Romero, and Escobar. It's their job to take away bats from him and not the other way around.

Have you seen Pinto and Romero play? Or the above statement is a "gut feeling"?
I cannot see any way that a middle infielder (Escobar) can take playing time from a catcher/DH. He will take time away from Doug Bernier (or is Bernier now a "better player"?)



Pure and simple, Doumit gives us the best chance to win right now, and we are trying to win right now.

I don't know about "you", but the Twins cannot win this year. They are 19 games behind Detroit with 32 games remaining and there are 2 other teams between them.

The only thing they can do is to prepare for the future...

Alex
08-28-2013, 06:58 AM
There are other players shuttled back and forth to the minors that the only thing limiting their play at the major league level is themselves. If Collabello or Parmelee produced at a major league level, they could have paid Morneau to go away for a less than C level prospect that is better than their numbers?

The fact that we didn't trade Morneau has nothing to do with those players. His level of play has been poor and the Twins didn't want to eat his salary, and thus were asking too much for him by hoping to get anything back.

My point is if you really think The Twins are in a position where their best option is to play Doumit in the starting lineup on a regular basis over evaluating a younger player in the majors, the Twins are in an incredibly dire position.

Colabello, at least, while having a rough 100 ABs had certainly earned a longer look with the dominance he showed in AAA. More than that, there are other reasons he should be getting as many ABs as possible against major league pitching.

Alex
08-28-2013, 07:04 AM
There really won't be a rebuild until you can identify a number one starter for the team.

Then we're in for a long wait. Ryan won't spend the money for one and I don't think they'll be willing to give up what it requires -- and neither will the fans if they can't stomach a Sano for Sale type trade that was floated hypothetically in the media last week or something similar.

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 08:16 AM
Doumit has been taking at bats away from Parmelee, Herrmann, Colabello, and Hicks just on a basic level, USAF Chief. Is he actually better than or worth more going forward in the future? CLEARLY, not. Now add in at bats for callus like Pinto, Romero, or Escobar, for example.

I don't get your stubbornness about a few different issues. It just seems crazy to me.

Exactly. Escobar was used just as an example of how this team could better adjust itself for the future. Parmelee is a similar hitter but a vastly superior defender and younger.

doumit is just wheel-spinning incarnate.

markos
08-28-2013, 08:19 AM
John asked, “So how do we judge the Twins rebuilding effort?”. My answer is “What rebuilding effort?”.

In my opinion, there is not much "rebuilding effort" to judge. If the beginning of this rebuilding period can be identified as the middle of the 2011 season, then there have been very few moves made in the past 2+ years to accelerate the rebuilding process. In fact, the only move I would consider a “rebuilding” move is the decision to trade both Span AND Revere last season. (My feeling is that even if the Twins were contenders last year they would have tried to move either Span or Revere last offseason, so it doesn’t make sense to credit both trades as “rebuilding moves.”) Contrast the Twins moves (or lack there of) with truly rebuilding teams, like the Cubs or the Astros, and it is very apparent that they aren’t putting much effort into this rebuild. The Cubs have traded away most of their veteran players in exchange for prospects; they have probably added at least a dozen new players into their farm system via trades. Yes, they haven’t acquired many high-end prospects, but they definitely filled in their 5-20 spots in the farm system. Additionally, the Cubs have been more aggressive on the international markets and in the draft.

This “rebuild” has just been business as usual for the front office: filling roster holes with inexpensive veterans and minor league callups. Looking ahead, even once the Twins are competitive again, I’m not sure how much credit should go to Terry Ryan for “rebuilding” the team. It is quite likely that much of the core of the next good Twins team will have been acquired PRIOR to the current rebuilding phase (and by Bill Smith!): Arcia, Sano, Rosario, (hopefully) Hicks, Gibson, Kepler, Polanco, et al. Additionally, the talent acquired from recent drafts (Buxton, Berrios, Stewart, et al) didn’t require any special action, just drafting the best player available. I guess it is to Ryan’s credit that he hasn’t traded away Buxton or Sano in search of a quick fix, a la Dayton Moore. But overall, the only action done to actively accelerate the rebuilding process was one trade. That isn't much.

USAFChief
08-28-2013, 08:20 AM
Doumit has been taking at bats away from Parmelee, Herrmann, Colabello, and Hicks just on a basic level, USAF Chief. Is he actually better than or worth more going forward in the future? CLEARLY, not. Now add in at bats for callus like Pinto, Romero, or Escobar, for example.

I don't get your stubbornness about a few different issues. It just seems crazy to me.
Hicks? LOL. Doumit took zero ABs away from Hicks this year, and will take none away if he stays a Twin for the next 20 years. In fact, if I remember correctly, didn't you spend a couple months telling us Hicks should be in Rochester? Now he should be in the majors catching?

i asked a simple question. If its such a no brainier, I should have gotten some pretty good answers, no? When I see them, my "stubbornness" will melt like ice in the Tucson sun.

in the bigger picture, I don't agree with your plan for the Twins to get better by getting rid of every proven major leaguer except Mauer. For one thing, IMO that will lengthen the rebuild, not shorten it. For another thing, I believe in buy low, sell high. Doumit brings little value right now, but put up an OPS of .781 as recently as last year. He's a better hitter than his current numbers suggest, and might still be a valuable player going forward, or might actually net something of value in trade next year. If not, so what? He's signed, is currently a better baseball player than internal alternatives, and won't block better alternatives if/when they present themselves.

im also of the belief that, if the Twins do this right, there is no reason they should have to wait for 2017 to be relevant again. They could contend as soon as 2014, and Doumit is much more likely to be part of that than Eduardo Escobar or Chris Colabelo.

old nurse
08-28-2013, 08:28 AM
Then we're in for a long wait. Ryan won't spend the money for one and I don't think they'll be willing to give up what it requires -- and neither will the fans if they can't stomach a Sano for Sale type trade that was floated hypothetically in the media last week or something similar.
What it takes to get a number one type pitcher would be it's own thread.

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 08:43 AM
H For another thing, I believe in buy low, sell high. .

You got a clear answer: Parmelee. so your argument pretty much ends there. If Doumit had been dealt when he did have value (much like Willingham) we wouldn't have this issue.

Poor fielding vets at affordable contracts are easy to recycle in FA as long as you can provide opportunity. We shouldn't be clutching them just because they are vets.

matthew0211
08-28-2013, 08:49 AM
Doumit has value on a contending ball club. Just not the way the Twins are using him. He'd be a nice bat off the bench, and an adequate fill-in for Mauer at C or our RF-du-jour against a tough lefty once in a while. He's not an everyday player, and he has no business DH-ing.

Willihammer
08-28-2013, 08:59 AM
In the summer teams don't trade a lot of guys who are under contract beyond the current season. They are looking at next week, the pennant race - not planning for next season. So for the Twins to trade one of Doumit or Willingham at this point would probably not gain much return compared to trading either of them this offseason or at this point next season.

Incidentally this is why I believe the Twins should be buyers with some of the "rebuilding" clubs. They are in a unique position to be trading for established, contracted talent right now while the better half of the league is preoccupied with the pennant race. After the offseason starts, all clubs will be eyeballing your multi-year players and prices could go up.

A team like the Phillies. Ruben Amaro is under a lot of heat right now to go young.

Might be a package involving a couple of our young outfielders could bring back a guy like Cole Hamels.

Couple that with a Tanaka signing, another 3 or 4 FAs, and the rebuild will finally start getting some legs.

Shane Wahl
08-28-2013, 09:56 AM
(I am slamming my head against the wall right now)

Not sure what hurts worse, literally doing that, or this conversation.

For one, my mentioning of Doumit and Hicks . . . has nothing to do with Hicks playing catcher (it's rather insulting and ridiculous and red herring-throwing that a point gets belittled and you do not bother to in any way interpret what could possibly be meant). Doumit has played right field, has he not? If Doumit were traded away magically in Shane's fantasy (rational) world--with a healthy Mauer and Herrmann--I guarantee you that the callus to replace him start and stop with Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks (IMAGINE this: Thomas or Ramirez moves to right to fill Doumit's spot and lo and behold . . . ! Hicks replaces Doumit on the roster by playing CF!!!!

--Was that really so difficult, or was it just more fun to make a Hicks-as-catcher comment?

ThePuck
08-28-2013, 09:57 AM
'In 2014, if Morneau doesn’t return, the core of Twins with winning backgrounds will be Mauer and … uh… pretty much nobody. I like numbers as much as most of you, but team building is a multidimensional task. Veteran players with skills – in the clubhouse and on the field – need to be part of the build.'

Mauer, Morneau, (Pierzynski, Johan) and a bunch of Twins thoughts | A Fan's View | StarTribune.com (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/221163631.html)

Shane Wahl
08-28-2013, 09:58 AM
Doumit has value on a contending ball club. Just not the way the Twins are using him. He'd be a nice bat off the bench, and an adequate fill-in for Mauer at C or our RF-du-jour against a tough lefty once in a while. He's not an everyday player, and he has no business DH-ing.

This was one of a number of recent rational comments in this thread.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 09:59 AM
All Doumit has proven is that he is an awful baseball player.....just go look at the stats. A GM rebuilding a team would never sign a player like that to a 2 year deal.....I really think Ryan and others thought this team was actually going to be competitive. That is an indictment on them, frankly.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 10:01 AM
In the summer teams don't trade a lot of guys who are under contract beyond the current season. They are looking at next week, the pennant race - not planning for next season. So for the Twins to trade one of Doumit or Willingham at this point would probably not gain much return compared to trading either of them this offseason or at this point next season.

Incidentally this is why I believe the Twins should be buyers with some of the "rebuilding" clubs. They are in a unique position to be trading for established, contracted talent right now while the better half of the league is preoccupied with the pennant race. After the offseason starts, all clubs will be eyeballing your multi-year players and prices could go up.

A team like the Phillies. Ruben Amaro is under a lot of heat right now to go young.

Might be a package involving a couple of our young outfielders could bring back a guy like Cole Hamels.

Couple that with a Tanaka signing, another 3 or 4 FAs, and the rebuild will finally start getting some legs.


Doumit serves no purpose, what do people think they can trade him for? Just DFA him now, and move onto the future already.

Shane Wahl
08-28-2013, 10:01 AM
'In 2014, if Morneau doesn’t return, the core of Twins with winning backgrounds will be Mauer and … uh… pretty much nobody. I like numbers as much as most of you, but team building is a multidimensional task. Veteran players with skills – in the clubhouse and on the field – need to be part of the build.'

Mauer, Morneau, (Pierzynski, Johan) and a bunch of Twins thoughts | A Fan's View | StarTribune.com (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/221163631.html)

I like the idea of signing Johan even if it ends up meaning he retires as a Twin.

Rebuilding does require veterans, yes. That's why the Twins like Ramirez's veteran presence . . . wait, what? Seriously, though, I do think, um, a veteran Latin player might be a good FA pickup for a 25th spot for 2014 and 2015. Probably an OF?

Willihammer
08-28-2013, 10:11 AM
Doumit serves no purpose

Weren't people saying that about Drew Butera?

Part of selling high with Doumit involves waiting. Next year at this time, with only ~1m owed him, he will be a hotter commodity.

Dumping an established ML hitter doesn't seem like a great way to manage assets.

howieramone
08-28-2013, 10:19 AM
Doumit serves no purpose, what do people think they can trade him for? Just DFA him now, and move onto the future already.

Calm down Ryan will get something for him. Doumit belongs in the bigs and there is no reason to panic. It's not like he's blocking a future All-Star or something.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 10:22 AM
he can't catch, he can't field, and he's a bad hitter.....he serves no purpose on this roster, and should not have been signed to a multi year deal. Not sure why anyone would trade anything for him at all.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 10:25 AM
Weren't people saying that about Drew Butera?

Part of selling high with Doumit involves waiting. Next year at this time, with only ~1m owed him, he will be a hotter commodity.

Dumping an established ML hitter doesn't seem like a great way to manage assets.


so you'd rather have him on the roster next year than someone that might be part of the future? If they can send him to AAA like Drew, I'm all for that.....

Alex
08-28-2013, 10:25 AM
Weren't people saying that about Drew Butera?

Part of selling high with Doumit involves waiting. Next year at this time, with only ~1m owed him, he will be a hotter commodity.

Dumping an established ML hitter doesn't seem like a great way to manage assets.

Selling high would have meant trading him last year. That's the problem, that the Twins in recent history haven't done a good job of selling players at their peak value with the team.

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 10:26 AM
Weren't people saying that about Drew Butera?

Part of selling high with Doumit involves waiting. Next year at this time, with only ~1m owed him, he will be a hotter commodity.

Dumping an established ML hitter doesn't seem like a great way to manage assets.

Yes. This. Especially when said hitter is in the midst of the worst season of his career.

It's possible that Doumit doesn't recover and at that point, you cut him loose. It's also possible that he has an OPS+ of 120 going into July of 2014 and you have a nice prospect coming your way because teams need a flexible bench bat.

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 10:27 AM
Selling high would have meant trading him last year.

Except that the Twins need a second catcher to rest Mauer.

Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week. The problem is that this team also thinks he's a right fielder, every day something-or-other, and maybe mascot.

Ryan Doumit is basically the Bizarro World Nick Punto. Awful defense but a capable bat and a great guy to use off the bench a couple of times a week. The problem is when some manager (we won't name any names) thinks that he needs to play every day, every game.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 10:35 AM
Compare Doumit to other DHs, and let me know if you really think he's "great" there....he's not even average.

Pinto is the 2nd cather next year, he might be good, we know Doumit isn't.

Alex
08-28-2013, 10:36 AM
Except that the Twins need a second catcher to rest Mauer.

Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week. The problem is that this team also thinks he's a right fielder, every day something-or-other, and maybe mascot.



Not arguing that point, and I agree on the Twins use of him, but was debating the selling high point. Doumit had probably his second best season in 2012 and turns 33 next season? Of course, it wouldn't have been terrible if they got something for him,ast year and had Butera catching Mauer's off days the last half ofthe season.

amjgt
08-28-2013, 10:40 AM
Not arguing that point, and I agree on the Twins use of him, but was debating the selling high point. Doumit had probably his second best season in 2012 and turns 33 next season? Of course, it wouldn't have been terrible if they got something for him,ast year and had Butera catching Mauer's off days the last half ofthe season.
Then we wouldn't have Sulbaran :)

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 10:45 AM
Not arguing that point, and I agree on the Twins use of him, but was debating the selling high point. Doumit had probably his second best season in 2012 and turns 33 next season? Of course, it wouldn't have been terrible if they got something for him,ast year and had Butera catching Mauer's off days the last half ofthe season.

It's bad form to sign a guy to an extension and then trade him. That makes the franchise look pretty bad to any incoming free agents or players currently in contract limbo.

I know it's hard to quantify these kinds of things but MLB is not a video game simulation. Real decisions and real human beings are in play here and not screwing over your employees or creating a bad clubhouse environment has to be a factor in how you treat your players.

Look at how Johan reacted to the Castillo trade. It was pretty apparent that he was on his way out the door after that point and that any "loyalty" he had to the franchise was greatly diminished.

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 10:46 AM
Not arguing that point, and I agree on the Twins use of him, but was debating the selling high point. Doumit had probably his second best season in 2012 and turns 33 next season? Of course, it wouldn't have been terrible if they got something for him,ast year and had Butera catching Mauer's off days the last half ofthe season.

Right, it's not just Gardy over playing him, we also extended him (reasonably to be fair) when he should have been dealt.

He is blocking a player and that's what happens when you give the manager a choice by putting him on the roster. As with other vets. The team shouldn't be investing more than a year into these kinds of vets at this time. They are recyclable.

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 10:49 AM
Compare Doumit to other DHs, and let me know if you really think he's "great" there....he's not even average.

Pinto is the 2nd cather next year, he might be good, we know Doumit isn't.

I didn't say Doumit was great at anything. I said he's a great guy to have off the bench and spot-starting.

diehardtwinsfan
08-28-2013, 10:50 AM
Except that the Twins need a second catcher to rest Mauer.

Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week. The problem is that this team also thinks he's a right fielder, every day something-or-other, and maybe mascot.

Ryan Doumit is basically the Bizarro World Nick Punto. Awful defense but a capable bat and a great guy to use off the bench a couple of times a week. The problem is when some manager (we won't name any names) thinks that he needs to play every day, every game.

Pretty much this. Doumit shouldn't have been taking at bats from Parmelee or Colabello. Period. But he was, and quite a bit. I don't think he should be traded right now, as the return would be garbage, but I do think based on his career that he could have value next year if he bounces back. The problem is that next year, the guy he's blocking in Pinto, who looks like could slide quite nicely into the Doumit role as well as be a potential asset at DH on occasion.

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 10:51 AM
He is blocking a player and that's what happens when you give the manager a choice by putting him on the roster. As with other vets. The team shouldn't be investing more than a year into these kinds of vets at this time. They are recyclable.

Then honestly, the front office needs to get a new manager. This whole "he's on the roster so he gets to play every day because the manager wants to WIN" argument is crap.

If the front office can't pick up a guy and have him used logically and in a way that benefits the team as a whole because the manager disagrees, get a new manager. There is no excuse for the front office and coaching to be at odds with who takes the field on a daily basis.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 10:52 AM
I didn't say Doumit was great at anything. I said he's a great guy to have off the bench and spot-starting.


4-6 starts a week is spot starting? that's what a guy that backs up Mauer and DH's 3-4 times a week gets......He should not DH 1 time a week, Fangraphs predicted he'd be the worst DH this year for a reason.....

drjim
08-28-2013, 10:52 AM
I just don't buy Doumit or Willingham are blocking anyone right now. I agree with the thought of keeping them, hoping they rebound a little, and flipping them next deadline.

Replacing them with AAAA guys will lead to more losses and more money in the owner's pocket. I don't get the desire for Houston's model. That franchise will be buried for years. There is something about bringing up the young guys 2-3 at a time to let them settle in before the next group comes up. There is a need for veterans to fill the roster spots.

People are criticizing the Twins about not rebuilding properly, but Arcia, Gibson, Hicks, Tonkin all debuted this year and all have a very good chance to be very important pieces to the next winning team. In addition, important information was found out about other borderline players.

Just because veterans filled the spots instead of AAAA guys the progress in the rebuild shouldn't be ignored. There are another 4-7 guys that will break in next year as well.

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 10:55 AM
Pretty much this. Doumit shouldn't have been taking at bats from Parmelee or Colabello. Period. But he was, and quite a bit. I don't think he should be traded right now, as the return would be garbage, but I do think based on his career that he could have value next year if he bounces back. The problem is that next year, the guy he's blocking in Pinto, who looks like could slide quite nicely into the Doumit role as well as be a potential asset at DH on occasion.

This could be a problem. If Pinto can hit, he's a version of Ryan Doumit.

But that wasn't a problem until about five minutes ago. Going into the season, Doumit was a valuable piece for the Twins.

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 10:56 AM
4-6 starts a week is spot starting? that's what a guy that backs up Mauer and DH's 3-4 times a week gets......He should not DH 1 time a week, Fangraphs predicted he'd be the worst DH this year for a reason.....

I'm really not trying to be snotty but are you actually reading my posts? Where on earth do you get the idea that I want to see Ryan Doumit start 4-6 games a week? I've spent the past half dozen posts saying the exact opposite of that.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 11:04 AM
I'm really not trying to be snotty but are you actually reading my posts? Where on earth do you get the idea that I want to see Ryan Doumit start 4-6 games a week? I've spent the past half dozen posts saying the exact opposite of that.


right here: "Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week."...so, one time as the backup catcher, plus 3-4 times a week at DH.....that's 4-5 (or 6 when mauer is hurt or 1B) starts a week. That's what you said a few posts up. Unless you meant combined 3-4 times a week, but that's still 4 starts a week....

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 11:07 AM
right here: "Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week."...so, one time as the backup catcher, plus 3-4 times a week at DH.....that's 4-5 (or 6 when mauer is hurt or 1B) starts a week. That's what you said a few posts up. Unless you meant combined 3-4 times a week, but that's still 4 starts a week....

3-4 times a week. Or 2-3 times a week. My point is that if he's catching 1-2 times a week and DHing 1-2 times a week, he's a valuable guy to have around because then you have a backup catcher, a part-time DH to keep him fresh, and a guy who can hit coming off the bench 2-3 other times a week.

DHing 3-4 times a week and also filling the role of backup catcher means Doumit is a full-time player. I think I made it pretty clear that I do not agree with him in that role.

markos
08-28-2013, 11:09 AM
I'm really not trying to be snotty but are you actually reading my posts? Where on earth do you get the idea that I want to see Ryan Doumit start 4-6 games a week? I've spent the past half dozen posts saying the exact opposite of that.

You said this:

"Except that the Twins need a second catcher to rest Mauer.

Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week."

When I first read this, I also thought you were arguing that
a) Doumit should be backup catcher (1-2 starts per week)
AND
b) Doumit should DH 3-4 times a week (3-4 starts per week)
-----------------
totals 4-6 starts per week

Now it is clear that you meant that Combined DH and backup catching should be 3-4 games a week.

IdahoPilgrim
08-28-2013, 11:12 AM
If nothing else, this thread has revealed who has replaced Butera as the "official whipping boy" of TwinsDaily: Ryan Doumit! Come on down!:D

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 11:13 AM
You said this:

"Except that the Twins need a second catcher to rest Mauer.

Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week."

When I first read this, I also thought you were arguing that
a) Doumit should be backup catcher (1-2 starts per week)
AND
b) Doumit should DH 3-4 times a week (3-4 starts per week)
-----------------
totals 4-6 starts per week

Now it is clear that you meant that Combined DH and backup catching should be 3-4 games a week.

Fair enough. Bad wording on my part.

old nurse
08-28-2013, 11:20 AM
Fair enough. Bad wording on my part.

Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week."
It really shouldn't be a problem, that is pretty clear

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 12:03 PM
[QUOTE=Brock Beauchamp;157871]Then honestly, the front office needs to get a new manager. [QUOTE]

You say all this as if Gardy and Ryan haven't been doing this for over a decade. Ryan knew exactly what would happen.

Brock Beauchamp
08-28-2013, 12:07 PM
You say all this as if Gardy and Ryan haven't been doing this for over a decade. Ryan knew exactly what would happen.

And it still drives me insane.

Alex
08-28-2013, 12:10 PM
It's bad form to sign a guy to an extension and then trade him. That makes the franchise look pretty bad to any incoming free agents or players currently in contract limbo.

I know it's hard to quantify these kinds of things but MLB is not a video game simulation. Real decisions and real human beings are in play here and not screwing over your employees or creating a bad clubhouse environment has to be a factor in how you treat your players.



Again, I'm not arguing that. But you've pointed what is arguably another mistake in what should have been part of the rebuilding process. They signed a 32-year old player to a two year deal in late June during a losing season. A great take here: Ryan Doumit extension shows Twins still living in the past | HardballTalk (http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/29/ryan-doumit-extension-shows-twins-still-living-in-the-past/)

Here's a quote from it that sums it up pretty well:
"Ignoring for a moment the fact that the Twins seem to be working to keep together their probable 95-loss team, smart clubs don’t give out multiyear deals unless there’s real upside to them."

Alex
08-28-2013, 12:34 PM
I just don't buy Doumit or Willingham are blocking anyone right now. I agree with the thought of keeping them, hoping they rebound a little, and flipping them next deadline.

Replacing them with AAAA guys will lead to more losses and more money in the owner's pocket. I don't get the desire for Houston's model. That franchise will be buried for years. There is something about bringing up the young guys 2-3 at a time to let them settle in before the next group comes up. There is a need for veterans to fill the roster spots.

People are criticizing the Twins about not rebuilding properly, but Arcia, Gibson, Hicks, Tonkin all debuted this year and all have a very good chance to be very important pieces to the next winning team. In addition, important information was found out about other borderline players.

Just because veterans filled the spots instead of AAAA guys the progress in the rebuild shouldn't be ignored. There are another 4-7 guys that will break in next year as well.

The problem is, these Twins veterans that are being talked about are not playing much above an AAAA level themselves and they are regularly starting.

Doumit is the biggest example of this because he is hitting the worst and has no asset to provide besides his bat (though he can sit behind the plate), but it includes Willingham and to some extent Morneau this year (but certainly includes any talk of re-signing him).

It's baffling to me to argue that they should be playing over comparable players that are younger and could have a longer future with the team is the issue. What sense does this make? If they had any trade value this season, wouldn't we be arguing they should have been moved? Instead, since no one else wants them, the position is that they should play for the Twins regularly?

Now, I'm not arguing we cut bait on all of them, but a team that is rebuilding should not have all three of these guys on their roster. Willingham will need to be a more permanent DH next season. This really squeezes Doumit because Hermann is far more versatile, is certainly a better backup catcher, and is hitting almost as well as Doumit. This leaves Doumit in the outfield, which is not really a position he's suited for, not to mention, Parmelee got sent back to AAA for hitting about exactly what Doumit is hitting now.

Alex
08-28-2013, 12:45 PM
And all this goes back to the main question:

How do you a grade a rebuild?

The Twins have not done a good job turning over veterans for prospects at the right times, and those veterans haven't really helped them field an even somewhat competitive team during the rebuild.

They haven't done a good job of signing free agents that will help them get out of the rebuild more quickly or even really bridge the gap to a future team.

Besides Dozier possibly, they haven't properly identified/developed/given a chance to younger players that can take over a position and make use of valuable major league time.

The most successful aspect of the rebuild is in acquiring talent by trading already cost controlled and relatively young players in Revere and Span.

They've done a good job of making smart decisions in the draft.

For me, measuring how well a rebuild goes is how quickly it looks like the Twins are going to get out of it. At this point, their decision making with the major league team has been painfully slow and awful, but they've done a decent job strengthening the minor league system.

This makes the rebuild a passive one that will be a significant wait.

drjim
08-28-2013, 12:47 PM
I don't think anyone is being blocked but I agree the team should not have all three next year and would be surprised if they do. I would also be surprised if more than one finish 2014 on the roster.

The wave is coming and they will be gone soon enough.

drjim
08-28-2013, 12:55 PM
And all this goes back to the main question:

How do you a grade a rebuild?

The Twins have not done a good job turning over veterans for prospects at the right times, and those veterans haven't really helped them field an even somewhat competitive team during the rebuild.

They haven't done a good job of signing free agents that will help them get out of the rebuild more quickly or even really bridge the gap to a future team.

I really disagree with these two points. No significant prospect is currently blocked. The Twins have not failed to turn over from veterans to prospects in a timely manner. Though you are correct the current veterans are pretty mediocre.

The second point is much too early to determine. No free agent signed last offseason was going to expedite the process. Free agents the next two years are the ones that will supplement the core.

Alex
08-28-2013, 12:58 PM
I don't think anyone is being blocked but I agree the team should not have all three next year and would be surprised if they do. I would also be surprised if more than one finish 2014 on the roster.

The wave is coming and they will be gone soon enough.

I think I realized part of the contention here is maybe the term "blocked." With the exception of Colabello, who I think has earned a chance at regular playing time, it's probably true that no one is really legitimately blocked.

That is different than finding out what players can do in the majors, and that would be worthwhile for players many have mentioned. It was, in fact, a major point people made in giving Dozier a chance to play this year. Carroll probably deserved the spot over him at 2B to start the season, but Carroll wasn't really part of long term plans and so ended up on the bench much of the season. I don't understand why the front office and the manager don't apply this philosophy in a couple of other spots.

Alex
08-28-2013, 01:09 PM
I really disagree with these two points. No significant prospect is currently blocked. The Twins have not failed to turn over from veterans to prospects in a timely manner.

I don't see how this is debatable, honestly. Going back to 2011, the only significant trade(s) the team has made to help bring in young talent is to trade young major league talent (Span, Revere). They let a handful of veterans walk for nothing at that time (Nathan, Cuddyer, Kubel). It's looking unlikely that they will get anything out of their veteran FA signings from our recent offseasons Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, Correa, Pelfrey) or for Morneau, who will be leaving shortly.

If they wanted players to help with a 2014 or even 2015 rebuild those players would have ideally brought something back already. Anything they bring back now will likely be further out that that, and it's far more likely they bring back nothing at all of value.


The second point is much too early to determine. No free agent signed last offseason was going to expedite the process. Free agents the next two years are the ones that will supplement the core.

Maybe that's true to some extent, but they've only been treading water these last two seasons and have shown minimal improvement-- the FA they've signed haven't helped them much -- they're not really better off and certainly don't look to be climbing out of anything. In fact, the opposite may be true if Willingham and Doumit have similar seasons next year.

Who and where do you see them signing this offseason that could help be part of that? The only bet I'd make is that they sign a veteran 1B. Beyond that, I really don't see them signing anyone and I bet they again leave the FA SP market alone, or at least don't make any signings of significance.

jokin
08-28-2013, 01:29 PM
I really disagree with these two points. No significant prospect is currently blocked. The Twins have not failed to turn over from veterans to prospects in a timely manner. Though you are correct the current veterans are pretty mediocre.

The second point is much too early to determine. No free agent signed last offseason was going to expedite the process. Free agents the next two years are the ones that will supplement the core.

The bolded abolutist statements are simply not true and I have to take issue with them. Signing and trading recently-signed FAs for prospects could most certainly have expedited the process (in a rebuild you have to trade the tradeable guys who don't fit into your long-term plan- particularly when they have "career years" like Willingham and Doumit). And why would Ryan suddenly abandon his "passive rebuild" MO and sign higher grade, "supplemental" FAs the next 2 years? It's simply not in his nature. He starts out the process of attempting to sign legitimate FA SP with a severe inferiority complex and only ends up with heartburn and heartaches by scooping up the retreads. The same essentially goes for position players, he likely won't take a legit shot at realistic bidding for an Abreu or the second-tier Int FAs, even a Willngham-type signing seems forever in his rearview mirror, given how that's working out.

Before we all pat ourselves and Terry Ryan on the back and start scheduling the 2015 "parade", as suggested on another thread, it would be more realistic to realize that not all of these prospects are going to work out, in fact a significant minority will either flame out or suffer career-altering injury. The Starting Pitching, although certainly likely to be better, will need more than the "supplementation" efforts that Ryan's track record suggests he can provide.

cmb0252
08-28-2013, 01:45 PM
Signing Tanaka would jump start the rebuilding process in a hurry. Hopefully they like what they see while in Japan!

Thrylos
08-28-2013, 01:48 PM
He is blocking a player and that's what happens when you give the manager a choice by putting him on the roster. As with other vets. The team shouldn't be investing more than a year into these kinds of vets at this time. They are recyclable.

One of the (very few) things that Ryan has done correctly lately, has been keeping Blackburn and his salary (the highest paid P in the Twins) in the minors. Same with Nishioka and his salary. I think that if Doumit does not perform, he will follow the example...

But for a couple of weeks earlier this season (before his concussion) Doumit was the Twins' best player. Give that to this manager and he will continue playing him (as Brock said...)

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 01:49 PM
By the same logic being used here we could have played Jamey Carrol at second and not actually blocked Dozier this year based solely on his initial struggles. Had we done so one of the few bright spots wouldn't have happened this year.

We ar too quickly writing off Parmelee in the name of a horrific defender with only slightly better offensive stats. You don't judge a block based on how the young guy has done thus far, this is a conversation of potential. Of which, yes, even Escobar has more of for the Twins much less Parms.

thank goodness we didnt follow this same advice at 2b....or we would really have few bright spots.

IdahoPilgrim
08-28-2013, 01:59 PM
One of the (very few) things that Ryan has done correctly lately, has been keeping Blackburn and his salary (the highest paid P in the Twins) in the minors. Same with Nishioka and his salary. I think that if Doumit does not perform, he will follow the example...

But for a couple of weeks earlier this season (before his concussion) Doumit was the Twins' best player. Give that to this manager and he will continue playing him (as Brock said...)

Can't happen. 5-year veteran. Both Blackburn and Nishioka could be forced to go down. Doumit can't. You can release him (and pay his salary) but you can't send him to Rochester unless he agrees to it.

Alex
08-28-2013, 02:04 PM
By the same logic being used here we could have played Jamey Carrol at second and not actually blocked Dozier this year based solely on his initial struggles. Had we done so one of the few bright spots wouldn't have happened this year.

We ar too quickly writing off Parmelee in the name of a horrific defender with only slightly better offensive stats. You don't judge a block based on how the young guy has done thus far, this is a conversation of potential. Of which, yes, even Escobar has more of for the Twins much less Parms.

thank goodness we didnt follow this same advice at 2b....or we would really have few bright spots.

While I advocating signing a MI because I didn't think Dozier would really be a regular starter in the majors, they put him out there and let him play and it looks like I'll be wrong about that, which I'm more than happy to admit. I don't get why they haven't applied this philosophy with other players mentioned who have shown that they can hit AAA pitching.

jokin
08-28-2013, 02:08 PM
Signing Tanaka would jump start the rebuilding process in a hurry. Hopefully they like what they see while in Japan!

Even more hopefully, different evaluators are utilized than those from the last foray to Japan....

Teflon
08-28-2013, 02:10 PM
I thought this was a post about Judge Reinhold. My bad.

5350

spycake
08-28-2013, 02:14 PM
That's a pretty unfair comparison. You're totally ignoring the elite positional depth in the minors. The Twins don't need to trade Mauer to restock the minor leagues. We're probably closer to that 2000 team currently than the 1997 team, imho.

Well, I didn't mean it was a perfect comparison. But the 2000 Twins were much younger than the 2013 club. The 2000 Twins, despite some middling stats, already had most of the key position players of the 2001-2004 contenders in place at the MLB level. They also had 4 average or above starting pitchers between the ages of 24-27, all netting 24+ starts at the MLB level that year. I am not getting that impression from the 2013 Twins.

Hence my choice of the 1997 club. It was older, like the 2013 club, with one star and some underperforming vets on offense, and the pitching staff apart from Radke and a few relievers was mostly a mess. And while they didn't have a Buxton, the 1997 org had some talent on the farm, but it was generally a few years away like the current Twins (Walker #7 prospect on BA's list, Rivas, Hunter, Ortiz, and Milton all cracked the BA Top 100 before or after that season, plus Cuddyer, LeCroy, and Restovich were their top 3 picks in the 1997 draft and later all climbed into the top 50).

Obviously Buxton is cruising to consensus #1 and Sano is near the top, but I think you might be exaggerating how much "elite" depth the Twins have, or anyone can realistically have, in the minors. Minor league talent alone is not going to make the Twins contenders in 2014.

I think the Twins best case is competing next in 2016 unless Ryan can diverge from his earlier rebuild and augment with quality free agents (or international signees).

jokin
08-28-2013, 02:44 PM
In the summer teams don't trade a lot of guys who are under contract beyond the current season. They are looking at next week, the pennant race - not planning for next season. So for the Twins to trade one of Doumit or Willingham at this point would probably not gain much return compared to trading either of them this offseason or at this point next season.

Incidentally this is why I believe the Twins should be buyers with some of the "rebuilding" clubs. They are in a unique position to be trading for established, contracted talent right now while the better half of the league is preoccupied with the pennant race. After the offseason starts, all clubs will be eyeballing your multi-year players and prices could go up.

A team like the Phillies. Ruben Amaro is under a lot of heat right now to go young.

Might be a package involving a couple of our young outfielders could bring back a guy like Cole Hamels.

Couple that with a Tanaka signing, another 3 or 4 FAs, and the rebuild will finally start getting some legs.

This is a great point, a franchise that seeks to gain advantage through inefficiencies like the Twins should appreciate it better- if only they weren't so concerned about Priority #1- coming in under the current fiscal year budget. IMO, and I've stated as such at the times in question, the Twins have missed taking advantage of numerous August trading opportunities with motivated sellers in '11, '12 and likely will again in '13.

PseudoSABR
08-28-2013, 02:47 PM
Minor league talent alone is not going to make the Twins contenders in 2014.I don't think that it will either, of course. But if we're judging a rebuilding effort that's in mid-stream, I'm not sure that 2014 is a fair goal line.

The veteran's that are currently on the team, aren't being counted on for the next rebuild, so I fail to see how the median age of the current club reflects how their future will play out. The 1997 comparison seems more apt to the 2011 club. I think we're further along in the rebuild than you're readily giving credit, but really that's just a matter of opinion/belief.

Alex
08-28-2013, 02:59 PM
The veteran's that are currently on the team, aren't being counted on for the next rebuild, so I fail to see how the median age of the current club reflects how their future will play out. The 1997 comparison seems more apt to the 2011 club. I think we're further along in the rebuild than you're readily giving credit, but really that's just a matter of opinion/belief.

I guess I'd also have a hard time saying that a rebuild is "further along" when the only player that I think is above 50% to have a good full major league season in the near future is Arcia. Beyond that, there are a ton of question marks and that's even more true of the pitching, which is incredibly tenuous.

spycake
08-28-2013, 03:07 PM
I don't think that it will either, of course. But if we're judging a rebuilding effort that's in mid-stream, I'm not sure that 2014 is a fair goal line.

The veteran's that are currently on the team, aren't being counted on for the next rebuild, so I fail to see how the median age of the current club reflects how their future will play out. The 1997 comparison seems more apt to the 2011 club. I think we're further along in the rebuild than you're readily giving credit, but really that's just a matter of opinion/belief.

I wasn't really trying to judge the rebuild.

You compared the 2013 team to the 2000 team, which was competitive in the following season.

I don't think we're anywhere near that point, and the age/composition of the 2013 MLB roster is proof of that -- we've got old guys and AAA players all over the place. Those guys have to play out their contracts or get replaced, and the replacements need time to get here and develop. So I think we're ~3 years away, at least. Like the 1997-1998 clubs.

UNLESS, of course, we take advantage of other avenues of player acquisition. Not sure if TR is willing or even capable of doing that, though.

golfboy1
08-28-2013, 03:10 PM
And all this goes back to the main question:

How do you a grade a rebuild?

The Twins have not done a good job turning over veterans for prospects at the right times, and those veterans haven't really helped them field an even somewhat competitive team during the rebuild.

They haven't done a good job of signing free agents that will help them get out of the rebuild more quickly or even really bridge the gap to a future team.

Besides Dozier possibly, they haven't properly identified/developed/given a chance to younger players that can take over a position and make use of valuable major league time.

The most successful aspect of the rebuild is in acquiring talent by trading already cost controlled and relatively young players in Revere and Span.

They've done a good job of making smart decisions in the draft.

For me, measuring how well a rebuild goes is how quickly it looks like the Twins are going to get out of it. At this point, their decision making with the major league team has been painfully slow and awful, but they've done a decent job strengthening the minor league system.

This makes the rebuild a passive one that will be a significant wait.

This is an accurate assessment.

Compared to 12 months ago the ML team is marginally better. Ryan did an excellent job trading for Mays & Meyers since we need high upside arms more than anything. They did a good job grabbing Pressley in the rule 5..he looks like a good arm for the future.

I like Dozier & Florimon up the middle. They are a big improvement over previous years MI. That's about it for the good news.

I never thought the Twins had a chance to compete this year so I wish they would have done more to improve long term. If they could have traded Willinghamm. Doumit or Burton last off season for good prospects they should have. This winter they should listen to offers on every one of their RP....including Perkins. I don't think they have a hitter worth trading ...maybe Willinghamm but it's probably better to hope he rebounds & trade him mid season.

They could/should be more aggressive on the international front. Signing a few big time talents from the IF would really help speed up the process.


The future looks a lot better than 12 months ago. They didn't have Meyers, Mays or Stewart.... & Gibson was more of a question mark. Sano & Buxton have made huge jumps & it looks like there are a lot of others prospects who could make an impact further down the road. I think we are going to have to suffer thru 2014 but hopefully Meyer, Mays, Sano, Pinto , Rosario, Santana & a few others at least get their feet wet so they can actually contribute in 2015.I expect Buxton will be up by 2015 also.

spycake
08-28-2013, 03:15 PM
And actually, the 2011 Twins are probably a better comp for the 1995 Twins. Going off memory, the 1995 Twins had some veteran pitchers who were no longer getting it done, and it suddenly became apparent that the minor league cupboard was mostly bare. The specifics are a little different -- Puckett, Radke, the various hometown veteran farewell tours, etc. -- but the timeline is about right. It was also right after a GM change, so that matches up with post-2011.

Rebuilding from within takes time. It took that Twins team about 6 years, even though they had some real good successes in player development (no super-duper-stars until Santana, but a lot of solid MLB starters, in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen).

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 03:19 PM
I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.

i think Ryan was still right to make that move, but it isn't playing out as well as hoped.

jokin
08-28-2013, 03:20 PM
Ryan did an excellent job trading for Mays & Meyers since we need high upside arms more than anything.






They didn't have Meyers, Mays or...

Was "Mays" and "Meyers" a typo, or are you hoping for 2 of each "high upside arm" coming in trade?:D

jokin
08-28-2013, 03:40 PM
I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.



"Conventional Wisdom" remains in effect until "Actual Reality" finally smacks it in the head with a 2X4 or elevates it to genius-game-changing-thought.

The fact is, the truth on the final merit of the trade is still a moving target, let's revisit the topic a year from now and see if it's collected ether more barbs or bouquets- or something inbetween, ie, the "right move" can still turn out being a disaster, and one has to wonder if Ryan had sufficient time to do total and complete due diligence on both Worley and May, given that it was Amaro who unexpectedly approached Ryan on his hot deal, and not vice versa.

nicksaviking
08-28-2013, 03:57 PM
Even more hopefully, different evaluators are utilized than those from the last foray to Japan....

Surely the Twins weren't the only team to evaluate Asian talent soley by using Youtube.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 04:12 PM
In theory the Revere trade was the right kind of trade to make, in practice, it is Ryan and the scouts who need to be right in the execution of the theory....I hope these are different scouts than those that recommend ML "talent" to acquire (Marquis, Pelfrey, KC as examples).

drjim
08-28-2013, 05:27 PM
I don't see how this is debatable, honestly. Going back to 2011, the only significant trade(s) the team has made to help bring in young talent is to trade young major league talent (Span, Revere). They let a handful of veterans walk for nothing at that time (Nathan, Cuddyer, Kubel). It's looking unlikely that they will get anything out of their veteran FA signings from our recent offseasons Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, Correa, Pelfrey) or for Morneau, who will be leaving shortly.

If they wanted players to help with a 2014 or even 2015 rebuild those players would have ideally brought something back already. Anything they bring back now will likely be further out that that, and it's far more likely they bring back nothing at all of value.



Maybe that's true to some extent, but they've only been treading water these last two seasons and have shown minimal improvement-- the FA they've signed haven't helped them much -- they're not really better off and certainly don't look to be climbing out of anything. In fact, the opposite may be true if Willingham and Doumit have similar seasons next year.

Who and where do you see them signing this offseason that could help be part of that? The only bet I'd make is that they sign a veteran 1B. Beyond that, I really don't see them signing anyone and I bet they again leave the FA SP market alone, or at least don't make any signings of significance.

My mistake I misunderstood what you meant by "turn over". I would call that "flip". Your criticism is valid but I think a little overstated. The current vets never really had the value some people think.

drjim
08-28-2013, 05:31 PM
By the same logic being used here we could have played Jamey Carrol at second and not actually blocked Dozier this year based solely on his initial struggles. Had we done so one of the few bright spots wouldn't have happened this year.

We ar too quickly writing off Parmelee in the name of a horrific defender with only slightly better offensive stats. You don't judge a block based on how the young guy has done thus far, this is a conversation of potential. Of which, yes, even Escobar has more of for the Twins much less Parms.

thank goodness we didnt follow this same advice at 2b....or we would really have few bright spots.

I admire your devotion to Parmelee but he doesn't have the bat speed. Reps won't change that.

The fairer comparison is Plouffe. He has the tools but can't put it together and they still run him out.

drjim
08-28-2013, 05:37 PM
I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.

i think Ryan was still right to make that move, but it isn't playing out as well as hoped.

There is a lot of team control left for all three players. Could easily end up "meh" for both teams.

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 05:52 PM
I admire your devotion to Parmelee but he doesn't have the bat speed. Reps won't change that.

The fairer comparison is Plouffe. He has the tools but can't put it together and they still run him out.

Changing his technique to generate more bat speed and then giving reps with the adjustment might. After all, that's exactly what propelled Dozier into relevancy again. (Not the same issue per se, but not wholly dissimilar either)

We're a bad team, Parms killed AAA, he needs more reps. It's not hurting anything just like Plouffe.

Alex
08-28-2013, 06:58 PM
My mistake I misunderstood what you meant by "turn over". I would call that "flip". Your criticism is valid but I think a little overstated. The current vets never really had the value some people think.

But that's the odd thing about this argument, right? If they were untradable last season for anything of value, they're certainly not going to become more valuable next season. And if, they don't have value to be traded, ie no one wants them over their current players, why are people going to bat in this thread for them to be in the starting lineup for the Twins?

Also, "flip" means to "turn over," but no harm and I appreciate clearing that up.

USAFChief
08-28-2013, 06:59 PM
Changing his technique to generate more bat speed and then giving reps with the adjustment might. After all, that's exactly what propelled Dozier into relevancy again. (Not the same issue per se, but not wholly dissimilar either)

We're a bad team, Parms killed AAA, he needs more reps. It's not hurting anything just like Plouffe.
"Parms" has the 10th most PAs on the Twins in 2013. He's also "killing" AAA to the tune of a .670-ish OPS this year.

Again, while there is at least some merit to the idea that Doumit is taking PAs away from Parmelee (unlike the Escobar, Hicks or "possible minor trade" examples), the real culprit isn't Doumit, Gardy or TR...it's Parmelee. He was given the opportunity, he coughed it up and has done little to force another look. He'll most likely get future opportunities anyway, so I still don't understand the immediate need to purge the Twins of everyone with past major league success.

drjim
08-28-2013, 07:06 PM
But that's the odd thing about this argument, right? If they were untradable last season for anything of value, they're certainly not going to become more valuable next season. And if, they don't have value to be traded, ie no one wants them over their current players, why are people going to bat in this thread for them to be in the starting lineup for the Twins?

Also, "flip" means to "turn over," but no harm and I appreciate clearing that up.

I don't know if that is true. Veteran bats can have value in the last year of a deal. Less risk for the acquiring team.

orangevening
08-28-2013, 07:10 PM
[QUOTE=ThePuck;157833]'In 2014, if Morneau doesn’t return, the core of Twins with winning backgrounds will be Mauer and … uh… pretty much nobody. I like numbers as much as most of you, but team building is a multidimensional task. Veteran players with skills – in the clubhouse and on the field – need to be part of the build.'

Winning background in the majors. That our minor league teams have all winning records (and dominance in A ball) gives me hope too.

spycake
08-28-2013, 07:22 PM
Surely the Twins weren't the only team to evaluate Asian talent soley by using Youtube.

The Twins front office is still old-school -- I doubt they've even seen Gangnam Style yet. :)

spycake
08-28-2013, 07:33 PM
I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.

i think Ryan was still right to make that move, but it isn't playing out as well as hoped.

On one hand, I felt Revere was over-rated and thus expendable, even after the Span trade.

On the other hand, it does seem like the Phillies knew what they were dealing in Worley and May. Seemed a bit too good to be true to get two promising pitchers for Revere.

I don't think the trade is going to haunt us or anything, but so far, it seems like TR was bested, if just a little bit. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, though.

diehardtwinsfan
08-28-2013, 07:39 PM
On one hand, I felt Revere was over-rated and thus expendable, even after the Span trade.

On the other hand, it does seem like the Phillies knew what they were dealing in Worley and May. Seemed a bit too good to be true to get two promising pitchers for Revere.

I don't think the trade is going to haunt us or anything, but so far, it seems like TR was bested, if just a little bit. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, though.

Did you see May's last box score? The kid has talent. Yes there's risk, but he has talent. The fact that we got both for Revere is rather impressive considering a number of us would have been thrilled with one of them.

spycake
08-28-2013, 07:43 PM
Again, while there is at least some merit to the idea that Doumit is taking PAs away from Parmelee (unlike the Escobar, Hicks or "possible minor trade" examples), the real culprit isn't Doumit, Gardy or TR...it's Parmelee.

I mostly agree with your take, I think Parmelee has frittered away plenty of chances this year... but isn't that partially TR's fault too? TR built the team with the idea of Parmelee being a starter, and Parm's been thoroughly mediocre.

I guess, where other people are arguing that TR should be throwing more things at the wall to see if they stick, I'm starting to think maybe a good talent evaluator would just start finding guys that stick without all of this fruitless throwing around.

spycake
08-28-2013, 07:48 PM
Did you see May's last box score? The kid has talent. Yes there's risk, but he has talent. The fact that we got both for Revere is rather impressive considering a number of us would have been thrilled with one of them.

That's exactly what I was thinking when the trade was made... but I'm starting to strongly suspect the Phillies knew Worley was damaged goods (not that they hid injury, just that he wasn't the same pitcher anymore). And there's a reason too that May dropped off the BA Top 100 and is repeating AA, and the Phillies knew that.

Still might be worth the risk on both of them, considering that Revere isn't all that impressive, even when he's batting .300.

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 07:49 PM
"Parms" has the 10th most PAs on the Twins in 2013. He's also "killing" AAA to the tune of a .670-ish OPS this year.

Again, while there is at least some merit to the idea that Doumit is taking PAs away from Parmelee (unlike the Escobar, Hicks or "possible minor trade" examples), the real culprit isn't Doumit, Gardy or TR...it's Parmelee. He was given the opportunity, he coughed it up and has done little to force another look. He'll most likely get future opportunities anyway, so I still don't understand the immediate need to purge the Twins of everyone with past major league success.

Parmelee was not "given every opportunity" that's hogwash. He has failed in his limited opportunities, but this is a strange argument. I find it especially strange coming from someone who was bandwagoning hard for Plouffe who had also been uninspiring after failed limited opportunities in part, as I recall, because he had former first round pedigree. You're taking the complete reverse of that previous position here.

I fail to see why there is any immediate need to play someone who isn't hitting and can't field over a young player who is struggling but needs to figure it out. Play the kid, he might surprise you. I also recall that being part of your Plouffe angle and you never stopped reminding us when he went on his flukey binge.

Your position would have cost us Dozier this year, I can't see any reason a losing team should invest at-bats into Doumit.

drjim
08-28-2013, 08:05 PM
I mostly agree with your take, I think Parmelee has frittered away plenty of chances this year... but isn't that partially TR's fault too? TR built the team with the idea of Parmelee being a starter, and Parm's been thoroughly mediocre.

I guess, where other people are arguing that TR should be throwing more things at the wall to see if they stick, I'm starting to think maybe a good talent evaluator would just start finding guys that stick without all of this fruitless throwing around.

This is a fair point but I would also argue it is part of a rebuilding process. Give a chance to guys on your roster and see if they can contribute.

They probably assumed Parmelee wasn't going to be good enough but there was nothing lost giving him a couple hundred more at bats.

Alex
08-28-2013, 08:21 PM
I don't know if that is true. Veteran bats can have value in the last year of a deal. Less risk for the acquiring team.

Yes, that can be an advantage in some situations, but that idea is at worst balanced by the fact that they're a year older and what we are seeing may be a decline rather than a down year for both.

It also certainly hasn't been the case for Morneau. He's hit better this season and more recently (though not in his last 22 PAs) so he'd be at his highest value by that logic but still no one wants him. Well, maybe the Pirates, but we'll see and my guess is at best the Twins essentially end up paying for a prospect.

Alex
08-28-2013, 08:27 PM
[QUOTE]
Winning background in the majors. That our minor league teams have all winning records (and dominance in A ball) gives me hope too.

I think having a better hitting first baseman would put more wins on the board. The winning vets on the Twins certainly haven't generated much these last three years. It's simply time to find out if we have better players or go and get them.

Alex
08-28-2013, 08:35 PM
Parmelee was not "given every opportunity" that's hogwash. He has failed in his limited opportunities, but this is a strange argument. I find it especially strange coming from someone who was bandwagoning hard for Plouffe who had also been uninspiring after failed limited opportunities in part, as I recall, because he had former first round pedigree. You're taking the complete reverse of that previous position here.

I fail to see why there is any immediate need to play someone who isn't hitting and can't field over a young player who is struggling but needs to figure it out. Play the kid, he might surprise you. I also recall that being part of your Plouffe angle and you never stopped reminding us when he went on his flukey binge.

Your position would have cost us Dozier this year, I can't see any reason a losing team should invest at-bats into Doumit.

Here are numbers on the opportunities the Twins have given players in discussion:

Dozier 2012: 340 - 2013: 489
Plouffe 2011: 320 - 2012: 465 - 2013: 397
Parmelee 2011: 88- 2012: 210 - 2013: 274

The approach with Dozier and Plouffe has been consistent with rebuilding team. The approach with Parmelee has not. He not only has fewer PAs, but his have been the least consistent. Plouffe and Dozier had consistent playing time for two seasons. Parmelee really only got consistent time this season -- last season was a lot of up and down.

Parmelee's career OPS is .720, the highest of the three players. I realize he's scuffling this year, but arguing he should be written off doesn't make a lot of sense when viewed in this context.

USAFChief
08-28-2013, 08:40 PM
For the record, I'm not arguing Parmelee should be written off, I'm simply of the belief his struggles have little or nothing to do with Doumit, and the blame for what does have to do with Doumit isn't on Doumit.

drjim
08-28-2013, 08:42 PM
Yes, that can be an advantage in some situations, but that idea is at worst balanced by the fact that they're a year older and what we are seeing may be a decline rather than a down year for both.

It also certainly hasn't been the case for Morneau. He's hit better this season and more recently (though not in his last 22 PAs) so he'd be at his highest value by that logic but still no one wants him. Well, maybe the Pirates, but we'll see and my guess is at best the Twins essentially end up paying for a prospect.

Morneau didn't have any value last year either, so there's that.

USAFChief
08-28-2013, 08:48 PM
I guess, where other people are arguing that TR should be throwing more things at the wall to see if they stick, I'm starting to think maybe a good talent evaluator would just start finding guys that stick without all of this fruitless throwing around.
I can't argue with that. He does seem to be floundering with the ML roster at the moment.

TheLeviathan
08-28-2013, 08:52 PM
For the record, I'm not arguing Parmelee should be written off, I'm simply of the belief his struggles have little or nothing to do with Doumit, and the blame for what does have to do with Doumit isn't on Doumit.

No, of course not. Doumit isn't hanging on his back while he's hitting - it's not the dicussion at all. What you are arguing, however, is that his lack of success excuses playing Doumit at DH over him. Whereas you would've never accepted such a suggestion about Plouffe. Nor should any such suggestion be accepted when you have an aging vet who is neither contributing offense nor potential trade value and a young player is losing at-bats.

While Doumit is playing catcher, you're correct - he's not blocking him. When he's playing DH, he's most certainly blocking him. And if you'e advocating to continue to block him for the rest of Doumit's contract, you might as well be writing Parmelee off. It's a distinction without a difference.

spycake
08-28-2013, 08:52 PM
This is a fair point but I would also argue it is part of a rebuilding process. Give a chance to guys on your roster and see if they can contribute.

They probably assumed Parmelee wasn't going to be good enough but there was nothing lost giving him a couple hundred more at bats.

Agreed, I would havd started Parm too. It's just when your fallback options are Ryan Doumit starting in RF, or Clete Thomas (again), or Wilkin Ramirez, and you repeat this scenario at 3B, CF, and all over the rotation, for two years in a row, it feels less like a forward-moving rebuilding process and more like misplaced confidence or erroneous talent evaluation.
I suppose some of that is inherent in rebuilding, but I am growing weary of the AAA feelgood promotion cycle.

Alex
08-28-2013, 09:02 PM
For the record, I'm not arguing Parmelee should be written off, I'm simply of the belief his struggles have little or nothing to do with Doumit, and the blame for what does have to do with Doumit isn't on Doumit.

Struggling and not getting PAs on a rebuilding team are two different things. No one is blaming Doumit directly -- I think it's more about his use. He's the most expendable player of those getting at-bats, though Ramirez is a close second (and first if he continues to get regular playing time).

EDIT: Doumit has 60 games at RF and DH. This is why people would argue he's the one most directly blocking Parmelee from get chances.

howieramone
08-28-2013, 09:28 PM
Struggling and not getting PAs on a rebuilding team are two different things. No one is blaming Doumit directly -- I think it's more about his use. He's the most expendable player of those getting at-bats, though Ramirez is a close second (and first if he continues to get regular playing time).

EDIT: Doumit has 60 games at RF and DH. This is why people would argue he's the one most directly blocking Parmelee from get chances.

Parmelee has been in the Twins organization since 2006 and has 510 PA in the majors. IMHO the Twins current handling of him is a non-issue, and in no way impacts the Twins goal of avoiding a long rebuild.

USAFChief
08-28-2013, 09:34 PM
EDIT: Doumit has 60 games at RF and DH. This is why people would argue he's the one most directly blocking Parmelee from get chances. I've agreed a case can be made for Doumit taking PAs away from Parmelee. I still think Parmelee is the primary cause for that.

Alex
08-28-2013, 10:02 PM
I've agreed a case can be made for Doumit taking PAs away from Parmelee. I still think Parmelee is the primary cause for that.

That's fair and I'd agree Parmelee is a huge disappointment, but at what's the minimum point would you question the Twins decision (whether it's how bad Doumit needs to be or good Parmelee needs to be) . Parmelee is .223/.303/.372 this season while Doumit is .243/.310/.382. For me, it's close enough to say that Doumit isn't worth batting at an OF/DH position and that you may as well give those ABs to someone else, especially considering defense.

USAFChief
08-28-2013, 10:09 PM
That's fair and I'd agree Parmelee is a huge disappointment, but at what's the minimum point would you question the Twins decision (whether it's how bad Doumit needs to be or good Parmelee needs to be) . Parmelee is .223/.303/.372 this season while Doumit is .243/.310/.382. For me, it's close enough to say that Doumit isn't worth batting at an OF/DH position and that you may as well give those ABs to someone else, especially considering defense.
And that's fair, but IMO there's a better than even chance Doumit hits again in the future, and IMO could be a part of a winning team. Doumit put up a pretty decent season at the plate as recently as last year.

jorgenswest
08-28-2013, 11:17 PM
It is reasonable to project that Doumit will hit somewhere between 2012 and 2013 levels. That would put him right at league average. Is that good enough to be a decline phase DH? I would rather have a guy performing a little below league average that has defensive skill and room to grow.

drjim
08-29-2013, 07:34 AM
Parmelee has defensive skill?

TheLeviathan
08-29-2013, 09:54 AM
Parmelee has defensive skill?

Relative to Doumit he's a defensive wizard.

terencemann
08-29-2013, 11:49 AM
Agreed, I would havd started Parm too. It's just when your fallback options are Ryan Doumit starting in RF, or Clete Thomas (again), or Wilkin Ramirez, and you repeat this scenario at 3B, CF, and all over the rotation, for two years in a row, it feels less like a forward-moving rebuilding process and more like misplaced confidence or erroneous talent evaluation.
I suppose some of that is inherent in rebuilding, but I am growing weary of the AAA feelgood promotion cycle.

To me it just looks like the front office has no interest in major league talent other than guys who can give Mauer some rest (like Doumit) or filling in a massive black hole (Worley and Willingham). Even then, they're going after replacement level to average talent and not first tier players so it's clear there's really no focus on building a winner at the MLB level.

I don't mind being patient I just think it's not worth grinding my teeth over which AAAA player starts in right field on a given night. No matter what they say to the press, it's just clear that the front office knows these players aren't going to turn the Twins into contenders but there are always opportunities for good value players like Doumit or Willingham (at least when they were playing well). If you want to compare the Cubs to the Twins, then I think the Twins need to do more to sell high on players.

As far as judging rebuilding teams go, it's not so much about how quickly the team gets back to the playoffs (if they do it in 2 seasons, is it really a "rebuild"?) as it is about what they do once the seeds planted in the rebuild come to fruition. Dayton Moore will be judged on what the Royals do over the next couple seasons because this is the time when he needs to build a team around the young players the Royals drafted and developed. For the Twins, the clock starts when players like Sano and Buxton start to surface: that's when you know if it was worth it.

howieramone
08-29-2013, 12:47 PM
The clock starting ticking 21 months ago when the perplexed Pohlads, with no where else to turn, convinced a reticent Terry Ryan to come out of semi-retirement and return our beloved Twins to past glories, thereby thrilling millions of loyal Twins fans, most of whom have never posted on a fan board.

IMHO the parade starts in 2015.:)

mike wants wins
08-29-2013, 01:31 PM
I do like a good parade. Not as much as pie, but still....

SarasotaBill
08-29-2013, 04:18 PM
Rebuilding Keys:
1. Understand the goal is to build a winning club for 2016-2022.
2. Maximize players arb years - do not rush prospects into the majors
3. Most young players take a year or two to adjust to the majors
4. Lose enough this year to pick in the top 4.
5. Top 4 pick provides a elite player but also sets up the budget to overpay for a player(s) later in the draft (ex - Gonsalves)
6. At this time - Spend money on young International free agents and not MLB veterans
7. Save payroll now to go over budget down the road (let's hope they don't just pocket the money)

ThePuck
08-29-2013, 05:22 PM
Rebuilding Keys:
1. Understand the goal is to build a winning club for 2016-2022.
2. Maximize players arb years - do not rush prospects into the majors
3. Most young players take a year or two to adjust to the majors
4. Lose enough this year to pick in the top 4.
5. Top 4 pick provides a elite player but also sets up the budget to overpay for a player(s) later in the draft (ex - Gonsalves)
6. At this time - Spend money on young International free agents and not MLB veterans
7. Save payroll now to go over budget down the road (let's hope they don't just pocket the money)

The Twins operate year to year on payroll. Whatever available money that isn't spent isn't put into payroll in later years. They've said this many times.

howieramone
08-29-2013, 05:33 PM
The Twins operate year to year on payroll. Whatever available money that isn't spent isn't put into payroll in later years. They've said this many times.

This is correct. Ryan has also said many times, any time he has gone to management with a special request to improve the ball club, management has always agreed to said special request.

ThePuck
08-29-2013, 05:39 PM
This is correct. Ryan has also said many times, any time he has gone to management with a special request to improve the ball club, management has always agreed to said special request.

He won't even use the money available to him much less ask for more.

howieramone
08-29-2013, 05:58 PM
He won't even use the money available to him much less ask for more.

Terry Ryan has said many times, he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. The past is not a perfect predictor of the future. The goal is to avoid a long rebuild. Many believe this is what is occurring, both on this board and the national media.

ThePuck
08-29-2013, 06:07 PM
The goal is to avoid a long rebuild. Many believe this is what is occurring, both on this board and the national media.

Popular opinion based on...um...nothing isn't much of an argument.

Not only that, but since we are waiting for prospects, it's going to be awhile...not just until the players are in place, but for us to filter though the keepers and the non-keepers and for them to get used to the majors. I don't know how short of a time a rebuild needs to be to be considered a short time, but it's been three years, and we're likely looking at three more years, minimum...that's a pretty long time.

Mr. Brooks
08-29-2013, 06:15 PM
Terry Ryan has said many times, he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. The past is not a perfect predictor of the future. The goal is to avoid a long rebuild. Many believe this is what is occurring, both on this board and the national media.

The problem with your statement is that Ryan didn't believe we were a rebuilding team. He said as much with both his words AND his actions.
I believe that finally, after this season, he realizes that it is a team that needs to be rebuilt, but his poor judgement has already cost us nearly 2 seasons of treading water.
IMO its a little late now to avoid a "long rebuild".

old nurse
08-29-2013, 06:18 PM
The problem with your statement is that Ryan didn't believe we were a rebuilding team. He said as much with both his words AND his actions.
I believe that finally, after this season, he realizes that it is a team that needs to be rebuilt, but his poor judgement has already cost us nearly 2 seasons of treading water.
IMO its a little late now to avoid a "long rebuild".

What actions did he do last off season would indicate that he was not rebuilding. He traded for prospects. What talent he added was stopgap at best.

jokin
08-29-2013, 06:22 PM
Popular opinion based on...um...nothing isn't much of an argument.

Not only that, but since we are waiting for prospects, it's going to be awhile...not just until the players are in place, but for us to filter though the keepers and the non-keepers and for them to get used to the majors. I don't know how short of a time a rebuild needs to be to be considered a short time, but it's been three years, and we're likely looking at three more years, minimum...that's a pretty long time.

Sooo.... I shouldn't make my Parade-attending plans just yet? Along with "belief" that we'll be Parading in 2015, I prefer a lot of supporting evidence, as well... and IMHO, prudently and intelligently NOT using a readily-available resource of $$$ doesn't count as supporting evidence for a sooner-completed rebuild over a later one.

Mr. Brooks
08-29-2013, 06:33 PM
What actions did he do last off season would indicate that he was not rebuilding. He traded for prospects. What talent he added was stopgap at best.

Rebuilding teams don't give Ryan Doumit an extension.
Rebuilding teams trade Willingham coming off a career year, with a team friendly contract.
Rebuilding teams don't give 2 year contracts to Kevin Correia. If all he wanted was some veteran #5 starter to eat some innings until the kids are ready, there were a dozen or more of those that went on 1 year deals. The only way you sign ANY of them to a 2 year deal is because you think one of them is "better" than the others (which is irrelevant unless you think you are competing for something), and you think you need to offer the 2nd year to get him.

glunn
08-29-2013, 06:39 PM
Moderator note -

Some of these posts are getting a bit confrontational. Please keep this respectful and factual.

ashburyjohn
08-29-2013, 09:56 PM
I admire your devotion to Parmelee but he doesn't have the bat speed. Reps won't change that.

Wait, you're saying that those ads I found claiming "develop explosive bat speed" are a lie?

/ my bat speed in Little League was measured with a sun dial, so I wouldn't know

diehardtwinsfan
08-30-2013, 06:30 AM
Rebuilding teams don't give Ryan Doumit an extension.
Rebuilding teams trade Willingham coming off a career year, with a team friendly contract.
Rebuilding teams don't give 2 year contracts to Kevin Correia. If all he wanted was some veteran #5 starter to eat some innings until the kids are ready, there were a dozen or more of those that went on 1 year deals. The only way you sign ANY of them to a 2 year deal is because you think one of them is "better" than the others (which is irrelevant unless you think you are competing for something), and you think you need to offer the 2nd year to get him.

Rebuilding teams do sign guys like KC, because they don't want them to block prospects. I didn't like the KC signing, but a 2 year contract is not that big of a deal.

The Doumit extension had something to do with his role (keeping Mauer fresh while being able to provide above average offense at C). Pinto hadn't emerged as a prospect yet. It wasn't a bad deal, it was one year too long (though I don't know if it happens if it's a one year extension).

That said, these are the types of moves rebuilding teams make. Quite simply, it's one or two year deals. Rebuilding teams don't go out and sign Anibel Sanchez to a 5 year deal. The question at hand is when is the rebuild going to end. Next year is the big transition year where a good chunk of guys will transition on to the major league roster. We will likely have a real good idea what that rebuild will look like by the end of next season.

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 08:31 AM
Rebuilding teams do sign guys like KC, because they don't want them to block prospects. I didn't like the KC signing, but a 2 year contract is not that big of a deal.

The Doumit extension had something to do with his role (keeping Mauer fresh while being able to provide above average offense at C). Pinto hadn't emerged as a prospect yet. It wasn't a bad deal, it was one year too long (though I don't know if it happens if it's a one year extension).

That said, these are the types of moves rebuilding teams make. Quite simply, it's one or two year deals. Rebuilding teams don't go out and sign Anibel Sanchez to a 5 year deal. The question at hand is when is the rebuild going to end. Next year is the big transition year where a good chunk of guys will transition on to the major league roster. We will likely have a real good idea what that rebuild will look like by the end of next season.

I don't think you understand my point.
Yes, you need players for those roles, I'm not arguing that.
But, any back end pitcher will do. When you are rebuilding, there is absolutely no reason to go anything more than year to year with a guy like Kevin Correia. UNLESS you think he gives you a better chance to win than any one of the dozen guys like him that signed 1 year deals. If you are a rebuilding team, you don't care about that extra half win that picking the "right" guy out of that bunch will give you. You only care about that extra half win if you think that half win has a chance to make a difference in a playoff race.

Yes, you need a guy to take innings behind the plate, but again, a truly rebuilding team only needs a warm body in that role. No reason to go anything but year to year with that role. If you don't have a prospect that can fill that role, then go sign any number of veteran catchers that can be had on one year deals in any given offseason.

Finally, when you match Ryan's words with these actions, the picture becomes clearer.
Of course, people will say that Ryan is going to lie, he didn't really mean that, he has to say that.
Did the GM's of any of the other obvious rebuilding teams say they were going to contend this year?
Maybe they did, I don't know. I doubt it.

oldguy10
08-30-2013, 09:08 AM
What I fear about any kind of "rebuild" is what are the Pohlad's real motives long term. I am thinking they are looking to go the route of Houston and Miami thus just worrying about making huge sums of money without having to improve the product on the field. It sure looks that way so far to me.

mike wants wins
08-30-2013, 09:22 AM
Miami has been very successful in the past with this approach. Before people judge them, let's see what happens over the next three years......Houston had no farm team, no MLB players....not sure what people wanted them to do. Both teams traded their only assets (other than Stanton) and reloaded their systems as best they could. Just as people argue it is too early to judge the Twins' rebuild, it might be a bit early to judge either of the other two teams.

But I do agree, I see no evidence the Pohlads want to spend money to make this team good. I continue to hope I'm wrong on that front.

diehardtwinsfan
08-30-2013, 10:48 AM
Finally, when you match Ryan's words with these actions, the picture becomes clearer.
Of course, people will say that Ryan is going to lie, he didn't really mean that, he has to say that.
Did the GM's of any of the other obvious rebuilding teams say they were going to contend this year?
Maybe they did, I don't know. I doubt it.

I look at Ryan's actions and it screams rebuild. You don't trade away 2 CFers for prospects and promote a guy from AA who clearly needed more time in the minors if you are in a "win now" situation. You don't sign guys like Pelfrey and Correia if you are in a win now situation.

I tend to ignore words because GM is going to come out in the winter/spring and say "we're gonna suck". You can choose to take him at his value. You choose to call him a liar. You can choose to say it's misplaced optimism. It might be one or several of those, who knows. But no GM is going to tell the press that they will be bad. They just won't.

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 10:57 AM
I look at Ryan's actions and it screams rebuild. You don't trade away 2 CFers for prospects and promote a guy from AA who clearly needed more time in the minors if you are in a "win now" situation. You don't sign guys like Pelfrey and Correia if you are in a win now situation.

I tend to ignore words because GM is going to come out in the winter/spring and say "we're gonna suck". You can choose to take him at his value. You choose to call him a liar. You can choose to say it's misplaced optimism. It might be one or several of those, who knows. But no GM is going to tell the press that they will be bad. They just won't.

So there are only two options? We are going to be bad, or we are going to compete for the division?
Again, I ask, did any of the GM's from other obvious rebuilding teams claim they were going to compete for the division?
Couldn't he simply say something like, "I think we have acquired the pieces to improve both this year, and into the future."? Or any number of gray answers like that?
Absolutely no good can come from him claiming that we were going to compete for the division. All it does is lead to questions from the mainstream fan when we have another 90 loss season, i.e. "who's fault is it?".

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 12:27 PM
When a poster chooses to interpret rather generic statements from Terry Ryan, it really doesn't tell us much about Ryan. What it does do is tell us a great deal about that poster.

Claiming you WILL compete for the division is a "generic" statement? Ok.

old nurse
08-30-2013, 12:41 PM
Claiming you WILL compete for the division is a "generic" statement? Ok.

If every player on the Twins was having a good year would the Twins be contending? The veterans playing like it was the second best years of their careers. Hicks hitting like it was spring training, the second year players stepping up not backwards. Diamond and Worely not regressing but improving? Pelphrey pitching like 2010 in the last 2/3 of the season. Could you see the Twins being contenders? That would be everything going right. Not likely but if it did Ryan's statement is accurate.

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 01:34 PM
If every player on the Twins was having a good year would the Twins be contending? The veterans playing like it was the second best years of their careers. Hicks hitting like it was spring training, the second year players stepping up not backwards. Diamond and Worely not regressing but improving? Pelphrey pitching like 2010 in the last 2/3 of the season. Could you see the Twins being contenders? That would be everything going right. Not likely but if it did Ryan's statement is accurate.

Many of those things were not going to happen, period. It's downright disturbing to suggest that a MLB GM had thoughts of a fantasy scenario where literally every player on the roster has a dream season, and nobody gets injured. In fact, every team in baseball could probably compete for a division title if everything went right. Most GM's are smart enough to know that is not going to happen. Not that it's not "likely" to happen, as you say, but that it literally WILL NOT happen.
Diamond and Worley were NOT going to improve, they were DUE for a regression to the mean. Now, I did not expect Diamond to be THIS bad, but I did expect this from Worley. I didn't think he was anything more than a fringe AAAA/5th starter on a bad team from day 1. Obviously I got ripped to shreds for that opinion at the time, and I'm sure now you'll say I was "just lucky".
What is funny is that many of the same people claiming you couldn't possibly have seen this coming for Worley, give credit to facing NL lineups for Liriano's improvement. How that doesn't work both ways in their mind, I don't get. Worley is coming from the NL to the AL and his numbers in Philly were a complete and utter FLUKE. Getting that many K's looking is not a sustainable event in major league baseball. The hitters are too good at what they do.

Doumit was not going to have another career (or as you say 2nd best career) year, he just wasn't. The projection models predicted this is who he would be. It's not hocus pocus, it's really not.
Pelfrey is coming off TJ surgery, moving to the tougher league, and was never all that good to begin with. I would say, and I am guessing so would most of the projection models, that he is having roughly the type of season he should have been expected to have.
Sure, Willingham being hurt and ineffective couldnt be predicted, but okay, what does that add? A couple of wins?
Morneau is having exactly the season he should have been expected to have. Dreams of him suddenly waking up one morning and turning back into pre concussion Justin were not realistic.
Until this recent injury, Mauer was having an excellent season. Florimon is hitting like he should have been expected to, and if anything his defense has been a pleasant surprise.
Dozier has been a pleasant surprise.
Arcia has held his own for a 22 year old.
Hicks was an unknown. No competent GM would "bank" on anything special from a rookie making the jump from AA. Especially one with a track record of struggling in his first taste of a new level.
Plouffe has taken a step back, but again, what is the cost of that? A win or two?
The bullpen has been better than expected. You can't just point out everything that went wrong without pointing out what went right.
The starting rotation has been, IMO, exactly what it should have been expected to be. Terrible.
As I admitted before, Diamond has been worse than expected, but guess what, Deduno has been better than expected, and we've gotten contributions from someone named Andrew Albers. To me the contributions from Deduno and Albers cancel out the negative of Diamond. Again, you have to point out the positive with the negative.
This was never going to be a playoff contending roster. I mean, look at the roster!
Only Terry Ryan and maybe a handful of overly optimistic fans would think (thought) it was.

John Bonnes
08-30-2013, 01:52 PM
There's certainly a continuum between "We're division contenders" and "We're rebuilding."

(BTW, My opinion is that when Ryan is saying he wants to contend this year isn't so much that he's trying to sell tickets - it's that he wants the entire organization to not get lazy. He's trying to turn up the heat.)

His two biggest moves this offseason were certainly moves for the future versus moves for the present. He did somewhat fill some holes - I'd put Pelfrey and Correia under that umbrella. I don't undertand the 2-year deal with Correia, but if you try to judge the organization's direction with that move, you end up in all kinds of goofy places. I think Occam's Razor applies for move - they just thought he was a lot better than he was. Also, they panicked.

But if we want to talk Correia, I think we should probably start up a different thread. That topic has been beaten dead.

Alex
08-30-2013, 02:08 PM
When a poster chooses to interpret rather generic statements from Terry Ryan, it really doesn't tell us much about Ryan. What it does do is tell us a great deal about that poster.

First, I think this post moved from discussing ideas to attacking a poster. I think we should get back to ideas.

Regarding "generic" statements, Ryan also said he wanted to the Twins to play meaningful games in August and September and not just April. He's also apologized this season in various ways for example, in one interview he said he let Gardy down implying the talent he acquired wasn't good enough. Again, we can choose to believe him or not on this issue (and I also happen to think he thought Hicks was ready, otherwise why not get a cheap fill in or let someone else- named Clete -play CF, not to mention they kept Hicks up a long time).

I tend to believe that he wanted the team to be competitive (he wasn't saying they were going to win the division) and I actually think his moves show that. I think he didn't go after higher upside pitching because it was out of his own price range and that trading two young, cost controlled OF for filling a longer term need than about rebuilding. It makes even more sense if you think that he believed Hicks was ready. A true rebuilding team keeps Hicks down until he's absolutely ready (and doesn't eat ML time) and a rebuilding team gives ABs to guys like Parmelee and Colabello instead of playing veterans who aren't hitting.

mike wants wins
08-30-2013, 02:10 PM
John, if he's turning up the heat, is anyone going to be accountable for this mess, other than "this starts and stops with me" but he keeps his (whomever "his" is) job?

I think either he and St. Peter thought this team was good (in which case they aren't good at their jobs), or they lied to sell tickets (in which case I would like them fired), or they really thought they could sign legit FAs for pennies on the dollar and that they would get better (which seems delusional and I'd want Ryan fired for that also unless he's learned his lesson).

ashburyjohn
08-30-2013, 02:35 PM
Getting that many K's looking is not a sustainable event in major league baseball. The hitters are too good at what they do.

Interestingly, wasn't that the Twins talent evaluators' knock on their own Anthony Slama?

glunn
08-30-2013, 02:42 PM
Moderator note -

Please keep the focus on attacking ideas that you disagree with, NOT attacking other posters.

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 04:10 PM
Interestingly, wasn't that the Twins talent evaluators' knock on their own Anthony Slama?

I couldn't say, I don't remember them saying that. But if it is true that he has a very high K looking rate, then they would be right to be skeptical of that, as they should have been with Worley.

ThePuck
08-30-2013, 04:13 PM
I couldn't say, I don't remember them saying that. But if it is true that he has a very high K looking rate, then they would be right to be skeptical of that, as they should have been with Worley.

Yeah, I remember them saying that about Slama. I remember not understanding why they cared one way or another how he got those strikeouts, but I got educated on that quickly.

diehardtwinsfan
08-31-2013, 11:14 AM
There's certainly a continuum between "We're division contenders" and "We're rebuilding."



The funny thing, if I remember right, is that Ryan said they would be competitive, but somehow that's evolved into division contenders. As well, if memory serves me again, that was also before he traded Revere and Span. I also remember him saying on occasions that competing next season would be tough. To your point, I think you are spot on about Correia too.

On a separate note, and not related to John's post, I personally tend to get tired of people grabbing one quote and trying to use to summarize everything about what someone's goals/motives will be. It just strikes me as incredibly ignorant in many cases and really does a disservice to the person in question. There's so much more out there when it comes to things like running a team, promoting a minor leaguer, or where a free agent may sign. We all do it, myself included sometimes, but I really think this is a practice we should all try to stop.

mike wants wins
08-31-2013, 12:43 PM
It was not one quote, St. Peter said it over and over.

Alex
08-31-2013, 12:50 PM
It was not one quote, St. Peter said it over and over.

Yeah, and it's better than no quote, which is what those arguing "the strategy was always a rebuild" have.

Alex
08-31-2013, 12:54 PM
The funny thing, if I remember right, is that Ryan said they would be competitive, but somehow that's evolved into division contenders. As well, if memory serves me again, that was also before he traded Revere and Span. I also remember him saying on occasions that competing next season would be tough. To your point, I think you are spot on about Correia too.

On a separate note, and not related to John's post, I personally tend to get tired of people grabbing one quote and trying to use to summarize everything about what someone's goals/motives will be. It just strikes me as incredibly ignorant in many cases and really does a disservice to the person in question. There's so much more out there when it comes to things like running a team, promoting a minor leaguer, or where a free agent may sign. We all do it, myself included sometimes, but I really think this is a practice we should all try to stop.

I disagree on both points. First, I think that there are people that recognize there's a continuum and that very few if anyone who is using the quotes thought the Twins wanted to be a division contender.

Second, I think it's a bad idea to get into the ignorance debate, and insulting. Anyone paying attention to front office interviews during the offseason, spring training, and even during the season (again I'll point to hearing Ryan multiple times say he didn't do his job, not to mention Dave St. Peter's recent comments about available payroll) knows that this wasn't a one time quote.

I'll add that people supporting their ideas with a quote is actually a good thing. There's also nothing wrong with debating whether it was taken out of context, but in the case of this discussion, I don't think that's happening at all.

Alex
08-31-2013, 01:38 PM
Some of us have been around sports long enough where we don't need someone to scream it from the top of the mountain to know that a team is rebuilding. Actually it's kind of funny. When the Twins do return to prominence, it appears there will be a handful of posters who never even realized the team was in a rebuild mode.

Another personal, inflammatory post. Can was stop being rude and actually discuss it? Most of us have been around sports our entire lives I'd guess.

Somehow this discussion has been turned around and we now have a theory that doesn't exist. I'm not arguing that the Twins aren't rebuilding at all, but I, and others, pointed out how neither their words, nor many of the moves are the act of a quickly rebuilding team. In answer to the question of the thread, my perspective is that:

1.) They could and should be making moves that better support a quick rebuild, but based on Ryan's comments and the moves he made it seems like he thought they would be competitive.

2) In terms of both, I'd argue you can rebuild and still be competitive, but the Twins aren't in an active rebuilding mode -- it's far more passive and they haven't been able to be competitive while being passive (waiting for prospects to develop).

Their rebuild approach could have been better (arguably they should have been in it since 2011) and their attempt at competitiveness is not only leading to another 90 loss season in 2013 but it looks like it will head that way in 2014, so that's not successful either. Rebuilding should be active and not just being terrible and waiting for prospects to mature. TRs only credit is trading two young CF, but there seem to be other opportunities that have been missed along the way.

To your point about "shouting it from the rooftops" I understand why he wouldn't want to shout it from the rooftops. However, people have also questioned whether Ryan actually said the team would be competitive, which he did. They've also said the moves seen are those of a rebuilding team. It's true that some (the CF trades), but many are not.

howieramone
08-31-2013, 01:55 PM
Alex, I apologize to you, but I have no clue how to respond. I know you're a good Twins fan so let's leave it that.


Go Twins!

Alex
08-31-2013, 02:50 PM
Alex, I apologize to you, but I have no clue how to respond. I know you're a good Twins fan so let's leave it that.


Go Twins!

No worries. I appreciate the apology. I think, and maybe we've heard them already, but just posting things you see as important and good aspects of a rebuild that maybe we've missed? I do hope I'm wrong and there's more to this than just waiting!

Thegrin
08-31-2013, 04:56 PM
First, we've got to remember that these 3 losing seasons could not have been predicted before 2011. The Twins 2011 pitching staff, which had won a pennant and played 2 163rd game playoffs (with 1 win) had an epic failure. All of them except Pavano (33 starts) were hurt . Blackburn (26 starts), Baker (23 starts), Liriano (24 starts), Slowey (8 starts). Duensing (32 starts) and Swartzak (27 starts) were pressed into service and pitched poorly for the most part. Diamond (7 starts) and Hendriks (4 starts) were also given a try. 2 years later the starters are gone, Swartzak and Duensing are successful relievers and Diamond and Hendriks have not proved themselves (Yet we still hope). Nobody predicted that.

Tearing a team down and going only with prospects never works. You need a mix of veterans and young players to forge a winning team (or buy as many veterans as possible ala the Yankees). This has been Ryan's approach and I agree with it. We only started with 4 proven veteran hitters and Willingham and Doumit have hit below their norms while Morneau hit without power or consistency. Of all the young guys only Dozier and Arcia have proved to be marginal major league hitters.

If the Twins had more output from the veterans and one of the youngsters being a solid hitter (.275 + BA) The Twins could have won at least 10 more games, even with our current pitching staff.

John Bonnes
08-31-2013, 05:21 PM
No worries. I appreciate the apology. I think, and maybe we've heard them already, but just posting things you see as important and good aspects of a rebuild that maybe we've missed? I do hope I'm wrong and there's more to this than just waiting!

I'll respond with good aspects of a rebuild. But first, let's talk about the difference between a rebuild and a tear-down. I think a lot of people say "rebuild" when they mean a "tear-down".

For instance, trading away Willingham is not a rebuild, it's a tear-down. What the Twins could get in return is part of the rebuild, but just a very small part. I think the fan base mixes up the two because there is something satisfying about watching a tear-down: it's highly visible and it's immediate and easy to talk about. But a rebuild is the long part after a tear-down. It's also mostly invisible. And it is harder to talk about.

The Twins rebuilding moves include trading for Meyer and May and having them take a step forward. Drafting Buxton and Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios need to be included. Also, watching Sano and Buxton and Rosario and Arcia each take several steps forward. It also includes moving Dozier to second base where he has thrived.

Also picking up Deduno as a minor league free agent and have him provide solid starting-pitching results. Moving Glen Perkins to the bullpen where he thrived. Picking up Fien, Thielbar, Burton and Pressley from the scrap hear and turning them into decent relievers. Finding Diamond as a Rule 5 pick in someone's organization and then trading a non-prospect for him when he couldn't be on the 25-man roster. Finally, successfully rehabilitating Kyle Gibson and have him make his way to the majors.

These are the slow, small moves that are a rebuild, in my mind.

Thegrin
08-31-2013, 05:25 PM
and for all the other Slama lovers out there, since his release, no other organization have picked him up. It looks like his career is done (unless he joins the Saints).

Hosken Bombo Disco
08-31-2013, 06:09 PM
I'll respond with good aspects of a rebuild. But first, let's talk about the difference between a rebuild and a tear-down. I think a lot of people say "rebuild" when they mean a "tear-down".
...
These are the slow, small moves that are a rebuild, in my mind.

Fair, but Winning can come about suddenly and turn arounds can be quick. (recent examples being Tampa, Pittsburgh, Washington, Baltimore).

I think the Twins have expected to be competitive these past few seasons, if not strong contenders. They certainly didn't expect to be strong contenders heading into 2008 yet they were.

Twins have some fantastic prospects almost ready. Do you have an idea about how seriously the Twins might be considering bringing in some new coaches who might guide the young guys along into the Major League level?

Alex
08-31-2013, 08:50 PM
I'll respond with good aspects of a rebuild. But first, let's talk about the difference between a rebuild and a tear-down. I think a lot of people say "rebuild" when they mean a "tear-down".

For instance, trading away Willingham is not a rebuild, it's a tear-down. What the Twins could get in return is part of the rebuild, but just a very small part. I think the fan base mixes up the two because there is something satisfying about watching a tear-down: it's highly visible and it's immediate and easy to talk about. But a rebuild is the long part after a tear-down. It's also mostly invisible. And it is harder to talk about.

The Twins rebuilding moves include trading for Meyer and May and having them take a step forward. Drafting Buxton and Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios need to be included. Also, watching Sano and Buxton and Rosario and Arcia each take several steps forward. It also includes moving Dozier to second base where he has thrived.

Also picking up Deduno as a minor league free agent and have him provide solid starting-pitching results. Moving Glen Perkins to the bullpen where he thrived. Picking up Fien, Thielbar, Burton and Pressley from the scrap hear and turning them into decent relievers. Finding Diamond as a Rule 5 pick in someone's organization and then trading a non-prospect for him when he couldn't be on the 25-man roster. Finally, successfully rehabilitating Kyle Gibson and have him make his way to the majors.

These are the slow, small moves that are a rebuild, in my mind.

I appreciate the distinction and the response and it's a heck of a list, but I guess I judge it from more of question of is the rebuild -- the attempt to get better -- active or passive, and maybe that's what you're also getting at.

Most of the moves discussed are passive, including drafting players. It's certainly important to draft the right ones, but everyone gets to draft players and the front office doesn't have to do anything additional here.

Trading two starting CF is certainly more active. However, the fact that these CF were cost controlled and young (and thus could have been part of a rebuild) categorize this trade more as trading from a strength to need. Still a good move and definitely important in a rebuild/tear-down, so it's definitely important.

Signing Deduno could end up being key and may bridge a gap, but he'll be around 32 or 33 by the time that happens, correct? Not to mention, Deduno could have signed with anyone after last offseason. He's certainly helped but I guess I have a hard time giving them credit for this when essentially no one else wanted him, but he has been a good find.

Alex
08-31-2013, 08:59 PM
First, we've got to remember that these 3 losing seasons could not have been predicted before 2011. The Twins 2011 pitching staff, which had won a pennant and played 2 163rd game playoffs (with 1 win) had an epic failure. .

I'd agree with this. However, there were a lot of people that predicted during 2011. The Twins were near 10 games out of first at the all-star break and were going to lose several key pieces (Cuddyer, Nathan, Kubel) without any clear replacements in 2012. The pitching staff was injured and showing its weakness and the middle infield was a mess. In fact, even Morneau and Mauer would be coming off of injuries and weren't sure things to produce, but let's assume they'd return to norms. That means that only 1B, C, and CF were soundly held down and there was nothing in the minors that was a sure thing to take over the other spots.

The point is that by the trade deadline 2011, the Twins could have been taking far more action than they did.

jokin
08-31-2013, 09:39 PM
I'd agree with this. However, there were a lot of people that predicted during 2011. The Twins were near 10 games out of first at the all-star break and were going to lose several key pieces (Cuddyer, Nathan, Kubel) without any clear replacements in 2012. The pitching staff was injured and showing its weakness and the middle infield was a mess. In fact, even Morneau and Mauer would be coming off of injuries and weren't sure things to produce, but let's assume they'd return to norms. That means that only 1B, C, and CF were soundly held down and there was nothing in the minors that was a sure thing to take over the other spots.

The point is that by the trade deadline 2011, the Twins could have been taking far more action than they did.

Spot on in your analysis, you're on fire this week, Alex. The gobsmack the Twins got in 2011 has led to the club to even now still trying to dig its self out of continued inertia from an entrenched "new stadium master plan" gone horribly wrong.

mike wants wins
08-31-2013, 09:59 PM
First, we've got to remember that these 3 losing seasons could not have been predicted before 2011. The Twins 2011 pitching staff, which had won a pennant and played 2 163rd game playoffs (with 1 win) had an epic failure. All of them except Pavano (33 starts) were hurt . Blackburn (26 starts), Baker (23 starts), Liriano (24 starts), Slowey (8 starts). Duensing (32 starts) and Swartzak (27 starts) were pressed into service and pitched poorly for the most part. Diamond (7 starts) and Hendriks (4 starts) were also given a try. 2 years later the starters are gone, Swartzak and Duensing are successful relievers and Diamond and Hendriks have not proved themselves (Yet we still hope). Nobody predicted that.

Tearing a team down and going only with prospects never works. You need a mix of veterans and young players to forge a winning team (or buy as many veterans as possible ala the Yankees). This has been Ryan's approach and I agree with it. We only started with 4 proven veteran hitters and Willingham and Doumit have hit below their norms while Morneau hit without power or consistency. Of all the young guys only Dozier and Arcia have proved to be marginal major league hitters.

If the Twins had more output from the veterans and one of the youngsters being a solid hitter (.275 + BA) The Twins could have won at least 10 more games, even with our current pitching staff.

Miami and their two World Series championships disagree you cannot tear a team down.

diehardtwinsfan
09-02-2013, 09:22 AM
I disagree on both points. First, I think that there are people that recognize there's a continuum and that very few if anyone who is using the quotes thought the Twins wanted to be a division contender.

Second, I think it's a bad idea to get into the ignorance debate, and insulting. Anyone paying attention to front office interviews during the offseason, spring training, and even during the season (again I'll point to hearing Ryan multiple times say he didn't do his job, not to mention Dave St. Peter's recent comments about available payroll) knows that this wasn't a one time quote.

I'll add that people supporting their ideas with a quote is actually a good thing. There's also nothing wrong with debating whether it was taken out of context, but in the case of this discussion, I don't think that's happening at all.

Alex, it misses things like context. As I pointed out with Ryan and DSP, but I'm pretty sure much of this was said before the Span and Revere trades, and like I said previously, what exactly should they said? "Were' going to suck?". If you want a real good example of what I'm trying to get at, look at every other Torri Hunter quote. He told every media stop on his FA tour that he'd love to play there. And after he signed, he made statements about wanting to end his career in MN while in other areas bashing their management. Context is a big key, and as I said earlier, I think it does a disservice to the person to simply grab a quote and use that to extrapolate what they are actually thinking and trying to do. Some of these issues are fairly complex. Markets also change and I think we can all agree that Ryan and company were not expecting the FA market to play out the way it did. That factors into things like this too. I see your point about grabbing someone's quote, but there's a lot of context that goes unspoken and there's a lot of context from after that point that gets ignored. Another good example would be Greinke. Do you really think he would have signed here if the Twins offered him 1M more (let's pretend that the Dodgers wouldn't match it)? I know what he said, but I somehow doubt it, especially given that the first few years of his deal would have been anchoring a very bad team. They would have had to significantly overpay to get him, and I honestly think the Dodgers will be regretting that deal about midway through it. I suspect in that context he would have said he left money on the table to play for the Dodgers.

I wasn't anymore thrilled about Ryan's free agent moves than the rest of us, but it was pretty obvious by the end of free agency that the Twins were approaching this as a rebuild. Going back and grabbing one guy's quote at the beginning of free agency doesn't change this. It's quite simply a goal vs. how it played out. I'm not a fan of how it played out, but this is a rebuild. Next year will be one too (though I think the results will ultimately look much better).

diehardtwinsfan
09-02-2013, 09:31 AM
I'd agree with this. However, there were a lot of people that predicted during 2011. The Twins were near 10 games out of first at the all-star break and were going to lose several key pieces (Cuddyer, Nathan, Kubel) without any clear replacements in 2012. The pitching staff was injured and showing its weakness and the middle infield was a mess. In fact, even Morneau and Mauer would be coming off of injuries and weren't sure things to produce, but let's assume they'd return to norms. That means that only 1B, C, and CF were soundly held down and there was nothing in the minors that was a sure thing to take over the other spots.

The point is that by the trade deadline 2011, the Twins could have been taking far more action than they did.

Keep in mind, that was 2011. That was Bill Smith. I was right there with you in 2011, and so was pretty much everyone on BYTO. We all saw that this team sucked and that trading Kubel, Cuddy, and Nathan would have been worth it. Though keep in mind that we picked up Berrios and Bard as compensation picks, and given the season Nathan had to date, I'm so certain he was going to net much of anything. Would either of these guys netted better prospects? That's a fair question I think.

Alex
09-02-2013, 10:34 PM
Keep in mind, that was 2011. That was Bill Smith. I was right there with you in 2011, and so was pretty much everyone on BYTO. We all saw that this team sucked and that trading Kubel, Cuddy, and Nathan would have been worth it. Though keep in mind that we picked up Berrios and Bard as compensation picks, and given the season Nathan had to date, I'm so certain he was going to net much of anything. Would either of these guys netted better prospects? That's a fair question I think.

That's a good point, and those are questions we won't have an answer to. I'll just say this isn't solely Terry Ryan or Bill Smith's responsibility. It is organizational to some extent even if they face the brunt of it.

I appreciate the discussion on quotes, though I disagree on the issue with the quotes to some extent (though I did agree and say that context is worth debating). I won't argue that there are certainly things that are simply pandering and said based on expectation, but I also think in this thread, many people have pointed to actual moves that support the idea that the Twins thought they could be competitive this season (Hicks, imo, being a prime example).

Additionally, why would DSP throw Ryan under the bus by saying they had approved a higher payroll? It doesn't make sense unless the front office really did want to be competitive. I mean, of course it could be a lie as well, but why not just say "We agreed with Terry that the asking price was too high for players out there and decided to go with what we've got." Or, even couch it more by saying, "We left flexibility in the payroll in case we ended up (by some miracle) being buyers at the trade deadline."

For me, as I've said, they've done a relatively poor job either way. If they lied completely about being competitive, they haven't done a good job of rebuilding, at least of being active. If they're waiting simply for prospects to mature, it could be a long wait (and it may never come that way). And, if they were honest in their comments about competing, they obviously haven't met that either.