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cmb0252
08-20-2013, 01:33 PM
As of this morning the Twins are 54-69 and if the season ended today would have the 6th overall pick in the 2014 mlb draft. Why should fans pay attention this early to something that is 9 months away? While giving his top 10 draft prospects for next year Jim Callis at BaseballAmerica proved why it is at least reasonable to care about early lists:

"Much can happen between the end of the summer circuit of college leagues and showcase circuits and the draft nine months later. Players can progress and regress, they can get hurt, they can emerge from relative anonymity, they can develop signability concerns. That doesn’t stop us from projecting future drafts well in advance, however. Here at Baseball America, we rank everything.

We usually line up the next year’s draft prospects in a College Top 100 and a High School Top 100 in the fall, then combine them in one list for our Early Draft Preview in January. I can’t review past combined overall Top 10s from this time of year, but I can look back at our recent college and high school lists from the fall before the next year’s draft:

2013 College Top 5: Mark Appel, Sean Manaea, Ryne Stanek, Colin Moran, Jonathon Crawford.
Appel and Moran went in first six picks, while No. 6-rated Kris Bryant was second overall choice.
2013 HS Top 5: Austin Meadows, Clint Frazier, Trey Ball, Reese McGuire, J.P. Crawford.
First three guys were among top seven selections, McGuire and Crawford went in the teens.
2012 College Top 5: Mark Appel, Deven Marrero, Mike Zunino, Chris Beck, Kevin Gausman.
Zunino and Gausman were first college players taken, Astros considered Appel at No. 1.
2012 HS Top 5: Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito, David Dahl, Walker Weickel, Stryker Trahan.
Only Buxton and Dahl cracked first 10 picks, Giolito would have if he hadn’t blown out his elbow.
2011 College Top 5: Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Taylor Jungmann, George Springer.
Cole was No. 1 overall choice, Rendon was No. 6, Springer and Jungmann went 11th and 12th.
2011 HS Top 5: Bubba Starling, Daniel Norris, Archie Bradley, Dillon Howard, Dylan Bundy.
Bundy, Starling and Bradley were first three prep players selected, signing for $18.725 million.

Of the last 30 players to rate among our top five college or high school overall prospects in the fall before their draft, half of them became top-10 picks. That includes two of the three No. 1 overall selections (Appel in 2013, Cole), with 2012′s first choice (Carlos Correa) ranking No. 11 on our High School Top 100 the previous fall. Manaea, Giolito and Purke almost certainly would have gone in the top 10 if healthy, and Giolito was one of six of the players mentioned above taken in the 11-20 range.

Overall, that looks like a pretty good track record to me. But I suspect that Bill and most of you reading this are more interested in my projections for 2014, so let’s get to those."

Jim Callis goes on to list his top 10 prospects (5 college/5 HS) which using his basic analysis we can guess 5 will go in the top 10 next year, 1 will go in the teens, and 4 should fail to produce or get injured. Obviously this isn't an exact science and a lot could happen but I think this proves that following prospects this early isn't a complete waste. Here is his list:

"1. Carlos Rodon, lhp, North Carolina State
Spectacular summer with Team USA cements him as clear top prospect for now.
2. Jeff Hoffman, rhp, East Carolina
Starred in Cape Cod League last two summers with mid-90s fastball, big-breaking curve.
3. Tyler Kolek, rhp, Shepherd (Texas) HS
His size (6-foot-6, 250-pounds), consistent upper-90s fastball make him the top prep prospect.
4. Trea Turner, ss, North Carolina State
More than just a burner, he also offers hitting prowess and the ability to stick at shortstop.
5. Alex Jackson, c/of, Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego
Plays a premium position, has some of the best power potential in the 2014 crop.
6. Jacob Gatewood, ss, Clovis (Calif.) HS
Put on a show during Home Run Derby at Citi Field, may wind up at third base down the road.
7. Tyler Beede, rhp, Vanderbilt
Can make hitters swing and miss with three pitches but can’t always control and command them.
8. Touki Toussaint, rhp, Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian HS
Has struggled with command this summer but his premium stuff is impossible to deny.
9. Brady Aiken, lhp/of, Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego
Projectable athlete could have three plus pitches in time, reminds me of Trey Ball at same stage.
10. Aaron Nola, rhp, Louisiana State
With his solid fastball, plus changeup and impressive pitchability, he’ll move quickly in pro ball."

He lists 7 pitchers, 2 possible SS, and 1 possible catcher. All are need positions for the Twins. Till the end of the regular season I plan to update this thread on the Twins current reverse position and post updates on not only the players posted above but other top prospects for those interested.

(P.S. I know I copy and pasted a lot of the article but I felt it was too good to chop up. For those interested in the full article Callis goes on to talk about the newly acquired Miguel Sulbaran. Well worth the read. Link here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ask-ba-2014-draft-top-prospects/)

LastOnePicked
08-20-2013, 02:06 PM
Apologies if this is a tangent to your post, but I'm wondering if MLB will switch to a draft lottery in the future, like the NBA. Maybe it's my perception, but I can't recall seeing so many MLB teams that just flat-out stink the way that this year's cellar dwellers do. It almost seems as if there's a race to the bottom, just so a team can lock up the next future star. Maybe it's a result of baseball's growing gap between the big media money players and the small market moneyball squads. Or maybe it's just what I'm seeing.

PseudoSABR
08-20-2013, 02:50 PM
The Twins are one game behind/ahead of the 4th pick (Cubs/Brewers), but if they start winning they are four games off the 14th pick (Rockies). So lots of volatility.

cmb0252
08-20-2013, 02:52 PM
Apologies if this is a tangent to your post, but I'm wondering if MLB will switch to a draft lottery in the future, like the NBA. Maybe it's my perception, but I can't recall seeing so many MLB teams that just flat-out stink the way that this year's cellar dwellers do. It almost seems as if there's a race to the bottom, just so a team can lock up the next future star. Maybe it's a result of baseball's growing gap between the big media money players and the small market moneyball squads. Or maybe it's just what I'm seeing.

I wouldn't throw out the possibility of there ever being a draft lottery but there has never been any public talk about it. In the NBA and NFL you have a possibility of drafting a player who could immediately come in and be a starter while in baseball even the best prospects have to spend time in the minors. Not only does this increase the possible length of a rebuild but decrease the immediate financial incentive to tank. Tanking and rebuilding are often confused to be one and the same. Players and couches play for the now while GMs have to keep one eye on the present and one on the future.

Also, while the NBA does have a draft lottery has it ever stopped teams from tanking?

cmb0252
08-20-2013, 02:55 PM
The Twins are one game behind/ahead of the 4th pick (Cubs/Brewers), but if they start winning they are four games off the 14th pick (Rockies). So lots of volatility.

The worst possible spot, draft wise, is to end up at 11. Not only will your pick not be protected but you won't actually have the 11th pick. The Blue Jays failed to sign their first round pick, 10th overall pick, so they will get the 11th pick. Any team that finishes 11th or worse, better in reality, will get bumped down a spot.

jay
08-20-2013, 03:03 PM
Rodon isn't likely, but you might catch me dreaming about his teammate (Trea Turner) plenty.

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 03:07 PM
Apologies if this is a tangent to your post, but I'm wondering if MLB will switch to a draft lottery in the future, like the NBA. Maybe it's my perception, but I can't recall seeing so many MLB teams that just flat-out stink the way that this year's cellar dwellers do. It almost seems as if there's a race to the bottom, just so a team can lock up the next future star. Maybe it's a result of baseball's growing gap between the big media money players and the small market moneyball squads. Or maybe it's just what I'm seeing.

Oh please god no lottery.
Congrats NBA on being a circus act.

I don't think that I have ever once watched an MLB game where I got the feeling that a team was intentionally trying to lose. Having a crappy team because you are rebuilding is not tanking, telling Mark Madsen to jack up 15 3 pointers is.

nicksaviking
08-20-2013, 04:03 PM
Oh please god no lottery.
Congrats NBA on being a circus act.

I don't think that I have ever once watched an MLB game where I got the feeling that a team was intentionally trying to lose. Having a crappy team because you are rebuilding is not tanking, telling Mark Madsen to jack up 15 3 pointers is.

I agree, although Jamey Carroll lobbing 75 MPH meatballs from the mound may make a compelling arguement for those that disagree.

cmb0252
08-20-2013, 04:43 PM
I agree, although Jamey Carroll lobbing 75 MPH meatballs from the mound may make a compelling arguement for those that disagree.

Which would be a funny but poor argument. Playoff teams, this year, have thrown out position players after being blown out. While not common it is always awesome!

Even if teams were tanking, which they are not, no one can out suck the Astros! Luckily for bad teams there look to be multiple studs up top. Turner has been one of my personal favorites but Kolek has been killing it lately! Dude hit 99 last week.

Kwak
08-20-2013, 04:47 PM
Not tanking? Operating on mini-budgets like Houston and Miami? Houston isn't poor and yet they will use a mini-budget and select 1st overall for the third consectutive year! I have yet to hear that Houston will make a substantitive investment to make 2014 season a .500 or better season--I'm not holding my breath either!

cmb0252
08-20-2013, 06:08 PM
Perfect Game All American (best high school players in the country) expert notes:

Chris Crawford: "I had a chance to sneak down to San Diego for the weekend to check out the Perfect Game All-American Classic in San Diego; and I think the overall talent was a notch-above what we saw last year, particularly on the mound. I wasn’t in love with everything I saw, especially in the field, but there were some clear first-round guys that stood out over the weekend. These events are far from a perfect look — several of these kids are clearly worn down from the season and the other events — but it’s a good chance to see some of the better talents in the class face off against each other, and several players stood out over the two days I was there."

Notes to his article on the players: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/08/thoughts-on-perfect-game-all-american-classic/

Matt Garrioch : "The Perfect Game All-American Classic in San Diego last Sunday was a high scoring game, but didn't have a lot of offense. It ended at 8-6 with the West on top but it was a sloppy game and was much more showcase than game. Many of the better players played showcase games to show off what they had, tools wise, than a baseball game to show their ability.That is typical of these games and of many of the games that I see. I don't get the chance to sit on a lot of games in season for these guys as I am in the north and most of the best players are in Cali, Florida, Georgia and Texas. For that reason, many times, it's hard for me to get a grasp on the level of polish that a player actually has.
The way I approach these games is watching to see what level of tools and ability a player has and what he could do with them if it works out right and less on how likely a guy is to work a count, hit the cut off man or make a productive out. This is finding how much "clay" a player has to work with. Will player development have enough to make a statue or just a small bowl?
Like I said, the game wasn't that great. It was sloppily played. Catchers got crossed up. There were errant pick off moves and catcher interferences and so on, but it still had a pile of talent."

Notes to the article on the players:
2013 Perfect Game All-American Classic Recap - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/8/19/4634918/2013-perfect-game-all-american-classic-recap)

cmb0252
08-20-2013, 06:15 PM
Perfect Game All American (best high school players in the country) expert notes continued:

BaseballAmerica: "Throughout the summer, high school pitching class has emerged as the strength of the rising senior crop, and those arms were showcased on national spotlight during the Perfect Game All-American Classic held Sunday night.

As 51 of the best high schoolers in the country played in Petco Park in San Diego, on a national stage on MLB Network, the West topped the East 8-6. Despite 14 runs scored, pitching dominated the game. With 34 strikeouts in a nine-inning game, nearly two-thirds of the recorded outs came on strikeouts (63 percent). Seven errors in the game helped account for the scoring.

The depth of power arms displayed unprecedented velocity for high school standards. In one-inning stints, the pitchers were able to rear back for their best stuff. All but one of the 19 pitchers touched 91 mph or better. The peak velocity at last year’s Perfect Game All-American Classic, for comparison’s sake, was 94 mph by eventual No. 4 overall draft pick Kohl Stewart. This year nine pitchers hit 95 mph or higher.

The pitching was so strong that each player warranted recognition. Below you will find each pitcher’s box score line to explain how he performed in his inning and his peak velocity. Then a brief description his stuff follows"

Notes, scouting reports, and stat lines from the game:
Pitching Dominates Perfect Game All-American Classic Despite High Score - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/perfect-game-all-american-classic/)

Keith Law: "Shepherd, Texas, right-hander Tyler Kolek, all 6-foot-6, 245 pounds of him, showed big velocity yet again. He worked 93-97 mph, throwing just one off-speed pitch in an 81 mph curveball. Assuming he stays healthy, he'll probably be the first prep pitcher taken next spring because of his sheer size and fastball. However, other guys in the class have better feel or command.

Touki Toussaint showed his usual arm strength, although 89-94 is actually a little low for him. His curveball, at 72-73 mph, ranged from a 59-footer to an absolute hammer, but he had no command of anything. That has been the norm for him in showcases. He's lean and athletic with a quick arm and he's hit 97 mph lots of times, but I'd like to see Touki (pronounced TOO-key) show he can pitch too.

The position player crop wasn't as promising as the arms were. Alex Jackson andJacob Gatewood are the two famous names in the draft class, with Gatewood particularly gaining wider notice after his performance in the home run derby at Citi Field, but neither player looked good this weekend or at the previous week's Area Code Games (which I'll discuss in a separate post). Gatewood seemed to have "homeritis," trying to pull everything as far as he possibly could, even though scouts know he has huge raw power and would prefer to see him make contact and use the whole field more. He does have a plus arm at short that would play at third base. Jackson scuffled behind the plate -- to be fair, I didn't get a throw time under 2 seconds from any catcher during my whole week in SoCal -- and was overrotating at the plate, also trying to do too much. I think he's the better pure hitter, although his future probably isn't as a catcher."

For more of Law's thoughts on other players (insiders):
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=1187

iastfan112
08-21-2013, 02:45 AM
Not tanking? Operating on mini-budgets like Houston and Miami? Houston isn't poor and yet they will use a mini-budget and select 1st overall for the third consectutive year! I have yet to hear that Houston will make a substantitive investment to make 2014 season a .500 or better season--I'm not holding my breath either!

Houston had an absolutely barren minor league system, a high payroll from trying to buy victories in FA, and an aging and declining core. They went the complete teardown route got a few decent prospects for trading away those aging player and probably accelerated their rebuild.

mike wants wins
08-21-2013, 08:31 AM
Houston had an absolutely barren minor league system, a high payroll from trying to buy victories in FA, and an aging and declining core. They went the complete teardown route got a few decent prospects for trading away those aging player and probably accelerated their rebuild.

So did Miami....and when they trade Stanton, they will be a good 2 years ahead of MN in the rebuild I'd guess.

I'm hoping for a starting pitcher again, this system is still a long way from having enough pitching at the high levels. I hope the Twins lose every game the rest of the way, and get Rodon.

crarko
08-21-2013, 08:42 AM
So did Miami....and when they trade Stanton, they will be a good 2 years ahead of MN in the rebuild I'd guess.

I'm hoping for a starting pitcher again, this system is still a long way from having enough pitching at the high levels. I hope the Twins lose every game the rest of the way, and get Rodon.

You should probably change your handle to mike wants losses.

birdwatcher
08-21-2013, 09:09 AM
Houston had an absolutely barren minor league system, a high payroll from trying to buy victories in FA, and an aging and declining core. They went the complete teardown route got a few decent prospects for trading away those aging player and probably accelerated their rebuild.

And now Houston has one of the top 5 talent pools, and trending upward still.

mike wants wins
08-21-2013, 09:15 AM
You should probably change your handle to mike wants losses.


Good thing I was on mute on this call at work, I laughed out loud! good one.

Don't Feed the Greed Guy
08-21-2013, 09:49 AM
One mock draft has three college pitchers as the top four players drafted--five of the top nine. If 2015+ are the years of Twins productivity, I would love to see one of those college-age arms in the Twins rotation. Mike Wants Losses? So does Mark

2014 MLB Mock Draft | 2014 MLB Draft | MLB Draft | (http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft)

diehardtwinsfan
08-21-2013, 10:41 AM
One mock draft has three college pitchers as the top four players drafted--five of the top nine. If 2015+ are the years of Twins productivity, I would love to see one of those college-age arms in the Twins rotation. Mike Wants Losses? So does Mark

2014 MLB Mock Draft | 2014 MLB Draft | MLB Draft | (http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft)

Unfortunately, unless he slips, Rodon is a pipe dream at this point. Even if the Twins trade off Morneau and Mauer gets shutdown, I don't see them losing enough games to pick one overall. Definitely would be nice to be in the top 3. There's some great talent there that fits some positions of need.

markos
08-21-2013, 11:10 AM
The Twins are one game behind/ahead of the 4th pick (Cubs/Brewers), but if they start winning they are four games off the 14th pick (Rockies). So lots of volatility.

I'm unreasonably concerned that the Twins are going to go on some kind of hot streak and end up with a pick in the teens next June rather than one in the top-5. The spread between 4 and 14 are so close, and it makes it hard to cheer for the Twins to win. Last night I was super pumped up and excited when Perkins slammed the door in Cabrera's face. However, I looked at the overall standing this morning and saw that they are now at #8 instead of #5, and the gap to #14 is still only 3 games. Hopefully some separation will form in the bottom of the standing so that I can cheer for the Twins to win without reservation.

drjim
08-21-2013, 11:15 AM
Win games and scout well.

mike wants wins
08-21-2013, 11:17 AM
You can scout well all you want, but you can't get the elite of the elite picking late in the draft....and how has that scouting and developing pitchers gone since Garza, exactly?

drjim
08-21-2013, 12:25 PM
You can scout well all you want, but you can't get the elite of the elite picking late in the draft....and how has that scouting and developing pitchers gone since Garza, exactly?

Too early to make a definitive statement either way?

mike wants wins
08-21-2013, 12:31 PM
Too early to make a definitive statement either way?

Garza was drafted in 2005, it is too early to judge picks since then?

drjim
08-21-2013, 12:41 PM
Garza was drafted in 2005, it is too early to judge picks since then?

No, Garza and Slowey were fine picks. Probably too early to dismiss 2009 and 10 picks because of injuries. I'm a little skeptical now of Gibson but if he ends up at as a #3 that is an acceptable first round pick.

I think you bounce between having unrealistic expectations of past picks to now having too much confidence in future picks. That is a combination that will surely lead to disappointment.

birdwatcher
08-21-2013, 01:25 PM
People forget that there were 14 pitchers selected ahead of Gibson.

mike wants wins
08-21-2013, 02:01 PM
People forget that there were 14 pitchers selected ahead of Gibson.

That's what I'm saying, I'm agreeing wth BW from months ago when he said it was easier to get elite players earlier in the draft.....it is easier. Doesn't excuse not succeeding later, but it is easier.

cmb0252
08-21-2013, 02:02 PM
Kiley McDaniel released his top 50 draft prospect list today and it is very different than BA's list. Here are his top 10:

1. Carlos Rodon (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6877942), LHP, North Carolina State (http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/)
Quick Take: Isn't without his faults but flashes 70 fastball and slider on 20-80 scouting scale with improved changeup that's above average at times.
2. Jeff Hoffman (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6938293), RHP, East Carolina (http://eastcarolina.scout.com/)
Quick Take: Went from solid first round arm to legitimate 1-1 threat with dominating 24.1 IP on Cape reminiscent of Adam Wainwright (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6736581).
3. Tyler Kolek (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=7038893), RHP, Shepherd HS (TX), No college commitment
Quick Take: Massive 6'5/240 righty hit a few 99s on my gun with a plus curveball and is still growing into his frame.
4. Trea Turner (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6980159), SS, North Carolina State (http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/)
Quick Take: Had a tough summer battling an ankle injury but has had two super productive springs with 80 speed as the calling card.
5. Alex Jackson (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6990815), C/RF, Rancho Bernardo HS (CA), Oregon (http://oregon.scout.com/) commit
Quick Take: Projects as a plus hitter with plus power and arm; likely moves to right field but has a chance to play behind the plate with some work.
6. Derek Fisher (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6980158), LF, Virginia (http://virginia.scout.com/)
Quick Take: Advanced bat has really improved in college and plus left-handed power is starting to show up in games.
7. Michael Gettys (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6982034), CF/RHP, Gainesville HS (GA), Georgia (http://georgia.scout.com/) commit
Quick Take: Explosive athlete has plus-plus bat speed, foot speed and arm strength along with fastball that's hit 95 mph.
8. Braxton Davidson (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6990791), 1B, T.C. Roberson HS (NC), North Carolina (http://northcarolina.scout.com/) commit
Quick Take: The best pure bat in the prep class has been productive this summer and hit upper deck shots at the MetroDome as 16 year old.
9. Grant Holmes (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6982033), RHP, Conway HS (SC), Florida (http://florida.scout.com/) commit
Quick Take: Athletic 6'2 righty regularly works 92-95 mph with a plus curve and feel for pitching.
10. Brandon Finnegan (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=6828986), LHP, TCU (http://tcu.scout.com/)
Quick Take: 5'11 lefty reminds some of Scott Kazmir (http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=8&c=1&nid=5521564) with fastball that's been up to 98 mph and three pitches that flash above average potentia

Here is the link for the rest of his top 50:
Scout.com: Top 50 Prospects for 2014 MLB Draft (http://mlb.scout.com/2/1318151.html)

drjim
08-21-2013, 05:09 PM
People forget that there were 14 pitchers selected ahead of Gibson.

Of the 14, 7 are busts, 3 are ok/relievers, and 4 are hits (assuming Minor stays healthy and Wheeler continues to develop. The big hits are Strasburg (pick 1) and Shelby Miller (19).

The top half picks fared better but still featured busts and the second best was pick 19.

Win games and scout well and the franchise will be fine.

ScottyB
08-21-2013, 06:26 PM
I'm a little skeptical now of Gibson but if he ends up at as a #3 that is an acceptable first round pick.

It's just too early to be skeptical at this point. Gibson has only 51 innings under his belt, way too few to make a judgment. Remember, Frankie V had 2 dreadful seasons including his second season with 200+ innings pitched. Then he blossomed to win 18 games and be a consistent starter. To me there were enough bright spots by Gibson, to see a potential as a solid #2 type starting pitcher (think Brad Radke). Gibson would certainly benefit from a veteran presence (similar to what Pavano was).

cmb0252
08-21-2013, 06:32 PM
BaseballAmerica released their top 10 players from the Area CodeGames. Here is the link:

Area Code Games Top 10 Prospects - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/area-code-games-top-10-prospects/)

USAFChief
08-21-2013, 10:51 PM
You can scout well all you want, but you can't get the elite of the elite picking late in the draft....
That's a bit strong, Mike. Albert Pujols went in the 13th round.

Mike Trout went with the 25th pick.

I could go on.

It's certainly easier the higher you draft, but you can find talent, including the "elite of the elite" if you're good and perhaps a bit lucky.

I would be fine with the Twins drafting near the bottom of the list for the next couple decades...including dead last a couple three times. :p

cmb0252
08-24-2013, 11:42 AM
For any of you out there that are interested in seeing some of the best young HS prospects and have the MLB Network, they will be playing the under armor all-star game. A lot of possible draft picks will be playing.

ScottyB
08-28-2013, 10:23 AM
As of this morning (8/28) the Twins are just 2 1/2 games from the 3rd pick, with the 5th pick in the draft. But it's still stacked up with a 5 1/2 game swing between the 3rd pick and the 15th. So right now we're 2 1/2 games and 2 picks out of 3rd and 3 games and 10 picks out of 15th. What a jam-up of crappy teams this year!

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 10:30 AM
That's a bit strong, Mike. Albert Pujols went in the 13th round.

Mike Trout went with the 25th pick.

I could go on.

It's certainly easier the higher you draft, but you can find talent, including the "elite of the elite" if you're good and perhaps a bit lucky.

I would be fine with the Twins drafting near the bottom of the list for the next couple decades...including dead last a couple three times. :p


Yup, agreed, should have typed "its more likely" rather than "can't"......but again, how's that going for the Twins in the last 5-10 years? Not so well......

birdwatcher
08-28-2013, 11:19 AM
Yup, agreed, should have typed "its more likely" rather than "can't"......but again, how's that going for the Twins in the last 5-10 years? Not so well......

Again, it's too early to make a definitive statement, but there's some evidence that it's been going better than "not so well" over the last 10 years, especially if one compares the results against the rest of baseball.

ThePuck
08-28-2013, 11:43 AM
Yup, agreed, should have typed "its more likely" rather than "can't"......but again, how's that going for the Twins in the last 5-10 years? Not so well......

Not so well indeed, then again, St Louis has been in the same boat as us during that time frame and they seem to be doing just fine in that department. Maybe it has more to do with who we pick when we do pick AND how we develope them.

cmb0252
08-28-2013, 11:57 AM
As of this morning (8/28) the Twins are just 2 1/2 games from the 3rd pick, with the 5th pick in the draft. But it's still stacked up with a 5 1/2 game swing between the 3rd pick and the 15th. So right now we're 2 1/2 games and 2 picks out of 3rd and 3 games and 10 picks out of 15th. What a jam-up of crappy teams this year!

Pretty crazy how close everyone is at the bottom. There is a huge difference in value in the #3 pick and a pick in the mid teens.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 12:20 PM
Again, it's too early to make a definitive statement, but there's some evidence that it's been going better than "not so well" over the last 10 years, especially if one compares the results against the rest of baseball.

three conseecutive 90 loss seasons, no one on AAA to even call up for a tryout two years in a row, right? 1 player under 28 on the roster for more than 1 year that is any good at all.....how am I to judge the minors, other than if they turn out players that help the team win?

gunnarthor
08-28-2013, 12:42 PM
three conseecutive 90 loss seasons, no one on AAA to even call up for a tryout two years in a row, right? 1 player under 28 on the roster for more than 1 year that is any good at all.....how am I to judge the minors, other than if they turn out players that help the team win?

I'm honestly not sure what to make of this post. It seems to be making end points to fit a theme rather than reflect reality. The Twins have brought up a lot of players in the last two years (even some from AAA although why should we care if they are coming from AA or AAA?), Dozier, Florimon, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Diamond, Colebllo, Albers, Fein etc. Dozier (3.2 WAR) and Florimon (2.5) are both good, under 28 and seem to have settled in to set up a nice MI for the first time in a decade.

The Twins are clearly building a new core to go around the next wave of talent. The first part of the wave showed up this year in Hicks, Arcia and Gibson (Dozier and Florimon are nice pieces to go with it). Wait until the rest of the wave shows up. The 2000 Twins lost 93 games with 27 year old Radke and Koskie, 25 year old Jones, 24 yr old Milton, Mays, Ortiz, Hunter and under 22 guys like Guzman, Santana and Rivas. Give it time. Do you honestly think Ryan isn't rebuilding correctly? Do you think a future foundation of Buxton, Sano, Gibson, Meyer, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, Mauer, etc is a bad plan?

ashburyjohn
08-28-2013, 01:31 PM
Pretty crazy how close everyone is at the bottom. There is a huge difference in value in the #3 pick and a pick in the mid teens.

If last night's bullpen blowup is any indication, we should be "fine" the rest of the way.

cmb0252
08-28-2013, 01:40 PM
If last night's bullpen blowup is any indication, we should be "fine" the rest of the way.

22 games of our last 32 are against teams with winning records. Several of them fighting for play off spots.

mike wants wins
08-28-2013, 01:45 PM
Good for more than 1 year was the key part there.....Valencia was good for a year, Plouffe was for a year......I'm hopeful on Dozier, but I'd like more than 1 year of success, maybe I was not clear enough there.

jokin
08-28-2013, 02:01 PM
If last night's bullpen blowup is any indication, we should be "fine" the rest of the way.

You may have spotted a developing trend. 5 of the 8 Twins relievers are having a worse second half in terms of ERA than the first half. But surprisingly, the Twins RP ERA is 2.90 for the second half and 3.17 in the first half, as Swarzak, Duensing and Roenicke are significantly better since the All Star break, and coupled with much better SP going deeper into games (4.67 ERA in 2nd half vs. 5.23 ERA in 1st half).

In the big picture germane to the thread topic, and sharpening the parameters for trend-detection, only the White Sox have a better RP ERA for the month of August than the Twins amongst their 8 "competitors" for the #3 spot in the draft (2.41ERA vs 3.35). This has been key to the Whities recent resurgence and suggests that they could very well pass the Twins in the standings going up and in the draft slot going down. The "bad news" is that there are plenty of teams just "behind" the Twins in the draft slot standings whose bullpens are falling apart in August- Angels (5.35 ERA), Blue Jays (4.71), Giants (4.68) and Mariners (4.67).

Monkeypaws
08-28-2013, 04:02 PM
The Twins are one game behind/ahead of the 4th pick (Cubs/Brewers), but if they start winning they are four games off the 14th pick (Rockies). So lots of volatility.

That is incredible and somewhat depressing to think a modest and meaningless winning streak at this point could move this team near the top half of the MLB standings.

BTW, notice how Morneau's production is drying up as we approach another trade deadline? If he stays, expect a spike in September's numbers.

cmb0252
08-28-2013, 05:43 PM
That is incredible and somewhat depressing to think a modest and meaningless winning streak at this point could move this team near the top half of the MLB standings.

BTW, notice how Morneau's production is drying up as we approach another trade deadline? If he stays, expect a spike in September's numbers.

While everyone enjoys when the Twins win it does bring up an interesting situation. Win a few meaningless games and finish strong or end horrid and get a good pick.

cmb0252
08-28-2013, 10:37 PM
East Carolina's Jeff Hoffman has been sky rocketing up draft boards after his solid performance in the cape league 33k/5 bb in 24.1 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and has reportedly hit 98. Add in a solid curve ball and change up from a 6'4 200 lbs frame and you have a front of the rotation starter. He was considered a mid first round talent before the cape but some experts have him in their top 5 currently with an off chance to challenge Rodan for #1.

The top 5 this year has a chance to be amazing.

cmb0252
08-28-2013, 10:38 PM
Also, here is Kiley McDaniels early top 50 list:

Scout.com: Top 50 Prospects for 2014 MLB Draft (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1318151.html)

McDaniels top 5 is the same as Jim Callis top 5.

kab21
08-28-2013, 11:49 PM
A 3rd high upside SS in the top half of the first rd to go with Turner and Gatewood. I don't care if HS'ers take 3-5 yrs to make it I like the upside. Several arms look real nice also.

15. Ti'quan Forbes (http://sbb.scout.com/a.z?s=381&p=8&c=1&nid=7105278), SS, Columbia HS (MS), Ole Miss (http://mississippi.scout.com/) commit

Quick Take: Athletic 6'4 prep shortstop has huge potential: he racks up hits in games off top pitching and is one of the youngest players in the draft class.

cmb0252
08-28-2013, 11:58 PM
A 3rd high upside SS in the top half of the first rd to go with Turner and Gatewood. I don't care if HS'ers take 3-5 yrs to make it I like the upside. Several arms look real nice also.

15. Ti'quan Forbes (http://sbb.scout.com/a.z?s=381&p=8&c=1&nid=7105278), SS, Columbia HS (MS), Ole Miss (http://mississippi.scout.com/) commit

Quick Take: Athletic 6'4 prep shortstop has huge potential: he racks up hits in games off top pitching and is one of the youngest players in the draft class.

Don't forget Gordon. But yeah, Forbes is a solid prospect. This could be the deepest first round short stop class in 10 years. Add in all the great arms and twins have a good chance to score a stud prospect at a need position.

Here are Matt Garrioch's write ups on the two SS prospects.

Ti'Quan Forbes is an elite athlete. He has that loose swagger that I've only seen a few times, most memorably in Randy Moss. He just has that aura. His speed is plus-plus. He has a really good arm, good defensive ability and his power projects plus as well. Defensively, he needs to improve but has the athleticism to be a true five tool player.

Nick Gordon has all the tools. He is fast, extremely good defensively and has the family rocket attached to the upper right side of his body. He has more pop than his brother. He strikes the ball better than Dee and should be a well above average shortstop offensively and defensively.

kab21
08-29-2013, 01:06 AM
gordon is a legit 1st rd'er but Forbes is mouth watering.

gunnarthor
08-29-2013, 09:40 AM
Thanks for the updates cmb. I don't think we can lose enough to get Rodon but Hoffman sounds enticing.

pierre75275
08-29-2013, 10:57 AM
We might be able to if we package both Willingham and JM in a waiver deal

ashburyjohn
08-29-2013, 09:58 PM
We might be able to if we package both Willingham and JM in a waiver deal

I wonder how well the main fan base would react to receiving "just" a low-minors stud pitching prospect at the cost of two aging starters. My guess is: not well.

diehardtwinsfan
08-30-2013, 06:33 AM
I wonder how well the main fan base would react to receiving "just" a low-minors stud pitching prospect at the cost of two aging starters. My guess is: not well.

There's some truth to that, especially since both are well liked by the fans... Though I think from a business perspective, it's worth the risk.

jay
08-30-2013, 07:54 AM
I wonder how well the main fan base would react to receiving "just" a low-minors stud pitching prospect at the cost of two aging starters. My guess is: not well.

This is very real and often understated here. Anyone posting on these boards is in an extremely minor percentile of knowledge and rabidness. While we can mostly support shipping off veterans in the name of a rebuild, the vast majority of the fan base (and, for that matter, $ generators) would be incredibly upset.

This just isn't a video game where you can do whatever, trade whatever, sign whatever... although I seem to recall using that strategy quite well in the franchise mode of MLB '04 for the PS2.

InfraRen
08-30-2013, 08:01 AM
Instead of me asking every-so-often, is there a site that tracks the current 2014 Draft order each day?

jay
08-30-2013, 08:02 AM
Those top 4 on Kiley and Callis' lists are a tier to themselves, IMO. Plenty of names throughout those list though that have the potential to breakout even more with a strong year.

Nice to see lots of P, SS, C. Still have to go BPA, but OF is the only spot to even consider shying from with that top pick.

Vervehound
08-30-2013, 08:58 AM
Instead of me asking every-so-often, is there a site that tracks the current 2014 Draft order each day?

you're opposed to looking at the standings page on every baseball website? get a sortable list and go smallest to largest on win pct.

ScottyB
08-30-2013, 09:41 AM
Instead of me asking every-so-often, is there a site that tracks the current 2014 Draft order each day?

Reverse Standings (MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com) (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2014)

Brandon
08-30-2013, 10:37 AM
At this point i am actually rooting for a last place finish as with another strong draft we will have that much more talent available in a few years as the Twins start to win again. Also if the Twins can sign 1 or both of the FA international players Masahiro Tanaka (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tanaka003mas&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) or Alexander Guerrero that would fill the remaining questions marks of ACE pitcher and SS for a while. I wonder if these FA players can see that we are that close to being a dominant team again. And if all things being equal would either pick Minnesota for that reason.

mike wants wins
08-30-2013, 10:42 AM
I can't see anyone picking MN for it's possible goodness....money is going to be the only thing that gets players here.

pierre75275
08-30-2013, 01:29 PM
Deduno went on the DL as did Ramirez. Not sure if that hurts or helps our quest to pick third next June

Mr. Brooks
08-30-2013, 01:43 PM
I can't see anyone picking MN for it's possible goodness....money is going to be the only thing that gets players here.

Why is that? Minnesota is a great place to live.
You could do a whole lot worse than Minnesota.

cmb0252
09-02-2013, 12:38 PM
After taking 2 of 3 from the rangers the Twins fell from 5th to 6th in the reverse standing. The draft day has been announced and will be help on June 5th.

Date set for 2014 First-Year Player Draft | MLB.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130829&content_id=58922412&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb)

cmb0252
09-09-2013, 12:57 PM
After dropping 4 straight games, 1 to the lastros and 3 to the blue jays, the Twins are 5th in the reverse standing. With 22 games left the twins only have 4 games verse teams under .500 so we have a chance to move up a few picks. The #1 and #2 picks are out of reach but we are 4.5 behind the white Sox, whom we play 3 times, and 1.5 behind the cubs.

Is pick #3 and #5 all that different value wise? Historically there is not really a statistical difference between the two but under the new system where money is capped I would argue there is a huge difference. Take last year for example. Would you rather have Stewart at slot or Gray at under slot? Only a pick difference.

diehardtwinsfan
09-09-2013, 01:03 PM
The cubs have played 3 more games than us too, so in a way the destiny is in our hands to lose those games. I don't think at this point that the WS are going to leap us, but I'd rather pick 4 overall than 6. The Brewers are right there with us too.

cmb0252
09-09-2013, 03:05 PM
The cubs have played 3 more games than us too, so in a way the destiny is in our hands to lose those games. I don't think at this point that the WS are going to leap us, but I'd rather pick 4 overall than 6. The Brewers are right there with us too.

Good call mentioning the Brewers. I forgot to mention they are .5 games behind us. With how deep this draft looks currently as long as we are in the top 8 I see us getting a true elite talent. For those who care more about need the BPA will be happy seeing currently the drafts strength is pitching/SS. Might be another HS guy but getting elite talent is getting elite talent.

gunnarthor
09-09-2013, 07:04 PM
Good call mentioning the Brewers. I forgot to mention they are .5 games behind us. With how deep this draft looks currently as long as we are in the top 8 I see us getting a true elite talent. For those who care more about need the BPA will be happy seeing currently the drafts strength is pitching/SS. Might be another HS guy but getting elite talent is getting elite talent.

I agree but I think I'm secretly rooting for us to lose these games.

Oxtung
09-10-2013, 11:09 AM
Minnesota's schedule coming up: 7 with Oakland, 3 with Tampa Bay, 3 with Detroit, 4 with Cleveland and 3 with the White Sox. That's 3 games with teams under .500.

The Cubs have a very difficult schedule remaining as well, arguably more difficult than the Twins. 3 with Cincinnati, 7 with Pittsburgh, 3 with Atlanta, 3 with St. Louis and 4 with Milwaukee. So that is 4 games against sub-.500 teams.

Milwaukee's schedule is a little easier but they still play mostly >.500 teams. 6 with St. Louis, 3 with Cincinnati, 3 with Atlanta, 4 with Cubs and 4 with Mets. So that's 8 games with teams <.500.

The White Sox schedule is not quite as hard as Minnesota or the Cubs but still difficult. They have 6 games with Detroit, 6 with Cleveland, 4 with the Royals, 3 with Minnesota and 1 with Toronto. That's 4 games with teams under .500.

Looking at those schedules I would say the Cubs have the hardest followed by Minnesota, the White Sox, and Milwaukee with the "easiest".

cmb0252
09-10-2013, 01:49 PM
Minnesota's schedule coming up: 7 with Oakland, 3 with Tampa Bay, 3 with Detroit, 4 with Cleveland and 3 with the White Sox. That's 3 games with teams under .500.

The Cubs have a very difficult schedule remaining as well, arguably more difficult than the Twins. 3 with Cincinnati, 7 with Pittsburgh, 3 with Atlanta, 3 with St. Louis and 4 with Milwaukee. So that is 4 games against sub-.500 teams.

Milwaukee's schedule is a little easier but they still play mostly >.500 teams. 6 with St. Louis, 3 with Cincinnati, 3 with Atlanta, 4 with Cubs and 4 with Mets. So that's 8 games with teams <.500.

The White Sox schedule is not quite as hard as Minnesota or the Cubs but still difficult. They have 6 games with Detroit, 6 with Cleveland, 4 with the Royals, 3 with Minnesota and 1 with Toronto. That's 4 games with teams under .500.

Looking at those schedules I would say the Cubs have the hardest followed by Minnesota, the White Sox, and Milwaukee with the "easiest".

Oh balls, I didn't notice our schedule was comparable to the other teams. Hopefully we stay in the top 5 for one more year before showing some improvement next year.

cmb0252
09-18-2013, 12:28 PM
Twins are #5 in the reverse standings with 12 games to go. 1 more vs the white suxs, 4 vs Cleveland and Oakland, and 3 vs Detroit. Only 1 game vs a team not in the playoff hunt. They are 1.5 games back of the cubs for the 4th overall pick and 1.5 games ahead of the mariners.

Oxtung
09-18-2013, 03:26 PM
Twins are #5 in the reverse standings with 12 games to go. 1 more vs the white suxs, 4 vs Cleveland and Oakland, and 3 vs Detroit. Only 1 game vs a team not in the playoff hunt. They are 1.5 games back of the cubs for the 4th overall pick and 1.5 games ahead of the mariners.

To update the other teams as well:

Chicago Cubs:
2 @ Milwaukee, 3vs. Atlanta, 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 @ St. Louis. Brutal.

Seattle Mariners:
2 @ Detroit, 3 @ Angels, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Oakland. A bit easier than the Twins.

Milwaukee Brewers:
2 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 @ Atlanta, 4 @ Mets. That bodes well for the Twinkies.

Chicago White Sox:
3 @ Detroit, 1 vs. Toronto, 2 @ Cleveland, 4 vs. Royals. Slightly easier than the Twins.

Prognosticator Ox says the Twins end up with the 5th pick. Man, the Twins aren't the only team tanking this September. Winning percentages this month: White Sox .235, Mariners .250, Cubs .375, Twins .375.

nicksaviking
09-18-2013, 04:25 PM
Prognosticator Ox says the Twins end up with the 5th pick. Man, the Twins aren't the only team tanking this September. Winning percentages this month: White Sox .235, Mariners .250, Cubs .375, Twins .375.

And every one of those managers is on the hot seat, which means they actually have incentive to put the best team on the field. Pretty sad there's such a talant gap with the bottom tier teams.

cmb0252
09-18-2013, 04:30 PM
5th sounds about right and with how deep this years draft looks It could lead to a pretty darn good prospect. At this point a pitcher or SS look likely.

TRex
09-20-2013, 08:13 AM
I got all excited because we are only 1 W from 4th place, then I wondered what happened when two teams tie? I looked it up, and the team with the worse record from the year before wins (loses?). That means Chicago wins the tie, and we are actually 2 W back... with only 10 games to go:( . However, we have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee, so there is now almost no way that we are worse than fifth (i.e. even if Milwaukee goes 0-10, we would need to go 4-6).

Major Leauge Ready
09-20-2013, 08:37 AM
I got all excited because we are only 1 W from 4th place, then I wondered what happened when two teams tie? I looked it up, and the team with the worse record from the year before wins (loses?). That means Chicago wins the tie, and we are actually 2 W back... with only 10 games to go:( . However, we have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee, so there is now almost no way that we are worse than fifth (i.e. even if Milwaukee goes 0-10, we would need to go 4-6).

I have been watching the box scores specifically for Chicago, Milwaukee, and a couple others who were close. Milwaukee pulled away this last week as they played head to head. I will be pulling for them down the stretch but it looks like we will be 5th. I am going to be disappointed if a top notch college SP goes 4th if there is not a similar prospect at 5. This pick could be really important to rounding out this team in a couple years. I like our odds of having very good position players by the middle of the 2015 season. We need a SP or two from this next draft.

Brandon
09-20-2013, 09:45 AM
as of yesterday we were 1.5 games out of 4th pick from the Cubs and Seattle was only 1 game back of us for the 6th pick. It seems a safe bet we won't drop any lower than that. right now just rootin for the Cubs so we can get the 4th pick next year.

twinsfan34
09-20-2013, 10:20 AM
To update the other teams as well:

Chicago Cubs:
2 @ Milwaukee, 3vs. Atlanta, 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 @ St. Louis. Brutal.

Seattle Mariners:
2 @ Detroit, 3 @ Angels, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Oakland. A bit easier than the Twins.

Milwaukee Brewers:
2 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 @ Atlanta, 4 @ Mets. That bodes well for the Twinkies.

Chicago White Sox:
3 @ Detroit, 1 vs. Toronto, 2 @ Cleveland, 4 vs. Royals. Slightly easier than the Twins.

Prognosticator Ox says the Twins end up with the 5th pick. Man, the Twins aren't the only team tanking this September. Winning percentages this month: White Sox .235, Mariners .250, Cubs .375, Twins .375.

As long as we're no worse than 5th. I'm pretty happy about it. It looks like the Brewers and Mariners have favorable schedules to stay with a better record than the Twins. I'd love for the Cubs to end up worse, but they play ATL, STL, & PIT - top 3 teams in the NL - all still vying for better seedings in the playoffs.

I like both the NC State products, LHP and the SS. However, for the Twins...not sure SS is a higher priority. The LHP will likely go top 3. The big power righty, Tyler Kolek, a high schooler from TX, might be a possibility at #4 or #5. He would fit in with their timetable of developing arms, e.g. Stewart, Barrios, etc.

Scout.com: Top 5 Prep Arms For The 2014 Draft (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1301426.html)

diehardtwinsfan
09-20-2013, 10:40 AM
Trea Turner might not be a bad grab at 4/5 as he should be an above average regular and much quicker to the majors, but I think they should know by June if Dozier/Rosario can be a decent MI combo. I think I'd rather take the HS SS Gatewood (higher ceiling than Turner) if they want a SS prospect or another power pitcher, because quite frankly, you cannot ever had enough of those. The nice thing about this draft is that it is appearing to be top heavy in elite talent at SS and SP, both of which the Twins can use desparately. I'm not going to cry if they walk away with an SP or a SS with that pick, and from what I've seen, they should have no problems doing that.

howieramone
09-20-2013, 11:32 AM
The Twins will take the BPA. That said, I believe they will take a college player who can make his way to Target Field ASAP. When Ryan took 30 days of Morneau, and wallet full of 2.3M in large bills to spend 4 days in Indianapolis, I don't believe he was looking for Presly and a PTBNL. He was trying to snatch one of the Pirates top starting pitching prospects. IMO the Twins will sacrifice ceiling to get players on the field, sooner rather than later.

Siehbiscuit
09-20-2013, 12:07 PM
I definitely would prefer a college shortstop over a higher upside high school kid. Kids bodies develop differently and keep growing. See Cuddyer and T. Plouffe.

I'm still in draft bpa college pitcher camp, though. Twins need arms soon.

cmb0252
09-20-2013, 12:24 PM
Twins will take BPA regardless of need. Luckily, this year need and BPA should be one and the same. Now, if it will be a college player or HS player that's a different story. As of now my top 5 has 2 college pitchers, a college SS, a HS pitcher, and a HS catcher/of. Twins might end up taking the best HS player for the third year in a row.

cmb0252
09-20-2013, 01:51 PM
One thing to note is not only is there possibly 8 elite talents at the top of the draft but the draft looks to be a deep one too. Especially with HS pitching. Last years perfect games all-american game, showcase for the best HS prospects, only one pitcher hit 94 (our own Kohl Stewart). This year 10 pitchers threw harder than 95. 10! Just something to keep in mind.

ThePuck
09-20-2013, 02:39 PM
SI says this about HS shortstop Jacob Gatewood:

Perkin likens Gatewood (6-foot-5, 190 pounds) to a young Troy Tulowitzki and calls him a "once-in-a-decade talent," noting his fastball reaches 92 mph on the mound, his "ballet-like fielding skills" and his prodigious power.

diehardtwinsfan
09-20-2013, 03:03 PM
One thing to note is not only is there possibly 8 elite talents at the top of the draft but the draft looks to be a deep one too. Especially with HS pitching. Last years perfect games all-american game, showcase for the best HS prospects, only one pitcher hit 94 (our own Kohl Stewart). This year 10 pitchers threw harder than 95. 10! Just something to keep in mind.

Yep... hoping one is still there in round 2.

diehardtwinsfan
09-20-2013, 03:07 PM
The Twins will take the BPA. That said, I believe they will take a college player who can make his way to Target Field ASAP. When Ryan took 30 days of Morneau, and wallet full of 2.3M in large bills to spend 4 days in Indianapolis, I don't believe he was looking for Presly and a PTBNL. He was trying to snatch one of the Pirates top starting pitching prospects. IMO the Twins will sacrifice ceiling to get players on the field, sooner rather than later.

We've had the BPA debate, not sure to redo it here. I don't doubt they will go with their BPA... That said, the best players (so far), fit nicely to our needs, though truth be told, ace pitching is always BPA... at least in my opinion.

That said, the issue here is that BPA is a factor of many things, including closeness. Obviously, the college ace is desired, but there's a reason he goes 1-1. The next wave is weak in the infield and pitching. If you can count on a Dozier/Rosario MI for the next few years, then grabbing Trea Turner at the expense of Gatewood or a pitcher isn't the right choice.

Kwak
09-20-2013, 03:15 PM
SI says this about HS shortstop Jacob Gatewood:

Perkin likens Gatewood (6-foot-5, 190 pounds) to a young Troy Tulowitzki and calls him a "once-in-a-decade talent," noting his fastball reaches 92 mph on the mound, his "ballet-like fielding skills" and his prodigious power.

I noticed Gatewood too (in another write-up). HS Jr, 6'5" and 190#--I see 230# very soon. If Gatewood's (high) value to the Twins was as a SS, I am convinced he will grow out of that position. Sano was "signed" as a SS--and is about 240#. Sano will need some serious weight control just to stay at 3B. However, if Gatewood is a true ++ power-hitter, then that's different. Another position can be found for a real slugger.

cmb0252
09-20-2013, 03:17 PM
Yep... hoping one is still there in round 2.

The Twins are going to finish in the top 10 and have a protected pick, if we sign a good free agent we might lose our 2nd round pick. While for fans it is easy to say who cares get the FA now I'm not sure our front office will feel the same way. Just makes the off season a little more interesting.

nicksaviking
09-20-2013, 03:31 PM
The Twins will take the BPA. That said, I believe they will take a college player who can make his way to Target Field ASAP. When Ryan took 30 days of Morneau, and wallet full of 2.3M in large bills to spend 4 days in Indianapolis, I don't believe he was looking for Presly and a PTBNL. He was trying to snatch one of the Pirates top starting pitching prospects. IMO the Twins will sacrifice ceiling to get players on the field, sooner rather than later.

Those statements completely contradict each other.

Any GM who goes the later route with a top 5 pick needs to be removed from his duties. While I am critical of Ryan, I do not believe he would actually do that with a #4 or #5 pick.

nicksaviking
09-20-2013, 03:37 PM
Yep... hoping one is still there in round 2.

That would be great, but to be able to sign him, the Twins would likely need to take a college player in round one. At this stage of the game, Gatewood or Kolek probably wouldn't enable another high profiled HS kid in round two.

Edit: Ha, this level of speculation in September really seems silly.

ThePuck
09-20-2013, 03:40 PM
I noticed Gatewood too (in another write-up). HS Jr, 6'5" and 190#--I see 230# very soon. If Gatewood's (high) value to the Twins was as a SS, I am convinced he will grow out of that position. Sano was "signed" as a SS--and is about 240#. Sano will need some serious weight control just to stay at 3B. However, if Gatewood is a true ++ power-hitter, then that's different. Another position can be found for a real slugger.

That doesn't happen with every player. I was 5 foot 10 as a freshman and only added one more inch. I stayed within 5 pounds of the same weight until I stopped playing baseball in my mid-20s. Dude is already 6'5. If he gets to 215-220. he's still good to go there if he's already as fluid as is being said at 6 foot 5.

kab21
09-20-2013, 11:25 PM
I don't really care if Gatewood outgrows SS. It would be great to draft an above average or better SS that could hold down the position for a long time but that's not how the draft and player development works. guys bust all the time. team needs change all. we are a year away from the draft and it will likely take 3 years minimum for a HS pick to make it to the majors. By that time this board could be begging for anyone to take over 3rd base for Sano for defensive reasons and the Twins could have found a solid SS out of nowhere.

The important thing in the draft is land legit above average (or better) players regardless of position. It was just 5 years ago that the Twins were churning out solid to very good starters (Baker, Slowey, Liriano, Garza, blackburn) pretty much every year out of their minor league system. At the same time they couldn't produce a hitter (not even guys that disappointed). things are completely opposite right now. 4-5 years from now team needs and farm system depth could be completely different.

I was a little concerned 2 weeks ago when there was a chance that the Twins could fall outside of the top ten with a hot streak but they seem to be locked into the 4-6 spot right now. Regardless of where they pick they should land a really good prospect to add to a pile of really good prospects.

I also don't care if the Twins lose their 2nd rd pick because they signed a legitimately good FA. As a matter of fact I would be thrilled since 2nd rd and later picks are a complete crapshoot and typically are busts.

Brandon
09-21-2013, 10:37 AM
I am pretty confident the Twins won't sign one of the 12-16 FA's that get a qualifying offer this offseason. They will likely have their second round pick. At this point isn't that pick the main thing we are playing (losing) for this season? The goal based on what I am reading above is to be able to have an opportunity to get one of those 94MPH hurlers with the 2nd pick if one is even available at that point or someone who is basically late first round talent that is pushed back due to the deep draft. The first pick appears to be a solid one no matter if we pick 4, 5 or 6.

I wanted to add we are now only .5 game out of 4th pick (currently Cubs) in the reverse standings and 1.5 games ahead of the 6th pick (Seattle)

Oldgoat_MN
09-21-2013, 11:45 AM
One thing to note is not only is there possibly 8 elite talents at the top of the draft but the draft looks to be a deep one too. Especially with HS pitching. Last years perfect games all-american game, showcase for the best HS prospects, only one pitcher hit 94 (our own Kohl Stewart). This year 10 pitchers threw harder than 95. 10! Just something to keep in mind.

Wow. In this context 10 is a really big number.

I have to believe we would take a pitcher. I am all for BPA, but sometimes what is best for your team is not what would be best for another team. I understand that when it is clear you have to do it, but it's not always clear. That the Astros passed on Buxton is still a mystery to me.

If Gatewood cannot stay at SS that has a huge impact on his value.

MrHockey
09-21-2013, 09:43 PM
The Twins are now tied with the Cubs for 4th in the reverse standings. Stellar work Gardy and company! It doesn't look like we can catch the Whities but with 8 games left it is possible that the Twins could take 4th.

cmb0252
09-22-2013, 10:18 AM
The Twins are now tied with the Cubs for 4th in the reverse standings. Stellar work Gardy and company! It doesn't look like we can catch the Whities but with 8 games left it is possible that the Twins could take 4th.

At this point, it is the only thing for fans to get excited about.

twinsfan34
09-22-2013, 11:58 PM
'tis true. But it's all we got. Half a game behind the Cubs for #4. 3 games ahead of dropping to #6 with 7 games to go. I think we can sit no worse that #5.

Well, Arcia hit well. Got caught off 1B on that nice hit off that big curve...

Monkeypaws
09-23-2013, 10:09 AM
The bottom teams are all tanking, hard. Over the last 10 games:

Houston 1-9
Miami 3-7
Sox 3-7
Cubs 3-7
Twins 2-8
Seattle 3-7

Only the Brewers have pulled themselves up by going 6-4.

ashburyjohn
09-23-2013, 10:40 AM
The bottom teams are all tanking, hard.

Welcome to the NBA, I guess. Maybe this is no worse than in past seasons. But with scouting seemingly better than ever (none of the top 10 picks in the 2012 MLB draft seems to be struggling seriously in 2013, except #10 apparently is injured), maybe this is the way it's going to be from here on. I hate it, but the NBA's pingpong ball system hasn't cured anything and I don't have a better competitive-balance solution to offer.

James
09-23-2013, 10:46 AM
The Twins are now tied with the Cubs for 4th in the reverse standings. Stellar work Gardy and company! It doesn't look like we can catch the Whities but with 8 games left it is possible that the Twins could take 4th.
You're right that the Twins are only a half game behind, but in the event of a tie, the Cubs would get the better pick because they had the worse record last year. I'm really hoping the Cubs step it up and win some games.

I think you're absolutely right though, I think it'll be hard for the Twins to get anything worse than the #5 pick. Seattle does have 3 games against KC and then 3 games against Oakland. Hopefully Oakland rests some of their starters now that they've already clinched.

nicksaviking
09-23-2013, 11:49 AM
The bottom teams are all tanking, hard. Over the last 10 games:


Welcome to the NBA, I guess. Maybe this is no worse than in past seasons. But with scouting seemingly better than ever (none of the top 10 picks in the 2012 MLB draft seems to be struggling seriously in 2013, except #10 apparently is injured), maybe this is the way it's going to be from here on. I hate it, but the NBA's pingpong ball system hasn't cured anything and I don't have a better competitive-balance solution to offer.

All the losses makes it look like they are tanking, but I really can't see that being the case. The White Sox, Cubs, Twins and Mariners all have managers who are in jeopardy of losing their jobs. While the GM may secretly want to lose for better draft picks, the manager surely doesn't, and while the GM has say on who is on the roster, the manager still gets to decide who plays. About the only play the GM has at this time of year to undermine the team, is screwing with who gets a September call up.

I think the losing has more to do with some really, really awful teams ending the season playing some really good teams that are still fighting for playoff spots. Additionally, many of the awful teams are playing young players to gain experience and evaluate their usefulness next year regardless of whether they are ready for the MLB or not.

Kwak
09-23-2013, 12:19 PM
You're right that the Twins are only a half game behind, but in the event of a tie, the Cubs would get the better pick because they had the worse record last year. I'm really hoping the Cubs step it up and win some games.

I think you're absolutely right though, I think it'll be hard for the Twins to get anything worse than the #5 pick. Seattle does have 3 games against KC and then 3 games against Oakland. Hopefully Oakland rests some of their starters now that they've already clinched.

Hoping for the CUBS to win?--they finish the season with Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

James
09-23-2013, 01:12 PM
Hoping for the CUBS to win?--they finish the season with Pittsburgh and St. Louis.
I'm aware they're playing good teams. But St. Louis already clinched a playoff spot, so if they lost a game or two to the Cubs, it wouldn't hurt them (besides possibly changing who they match up with in the playoffs).

But, I know. Hoping the Cubs win game is a strange feeling and I hope that I never do this again. And in reality, I don't think there's really any way that the Twins end up with the #4 pick.

Bob Sacamento
09-23-2013, 01:34 PM
I'm aware they're playing good teams. But St. Louis already clinched a playoff spot, so if they lost a game or two to the Cubs, it wouldn't hurt them (besides possibly changing who they match up with in the playoffs).

But, I know. Hoping the Cubs win game is a strange feeling and I hope that I never do this again. And in reality, I don't think there's really any way that the Twins end up with the #4 pick.My Cubbies are tanking the last bit of the season and there is little chance on catching them especially on who they finish the year out with and who they still have playing for them. The Cards aren't going to let up too much especially against Chicago; Cubs are 7-9 against STL so far this year and 6-10 against the Pirates.

howieramone
09-23-2013, 01:39 PM
I'm aware they're playing good teams. But St. Louis already clinched a playoff spot, so if they lost a game or two to the Cubs, it wouldn't hurt them (besides possibly changing who they match up with in the playoffs).

But, I know. Hoping the Cubs win game is a strange feeling and I hope that I never do this again. And in reality, I don't think there's really any way that the Twins end up with the #4 pick.James, I agree with you. King Theo was paid 18.5M to turn the loveable losers around, and he's been there longer than Ryan. Winning out so the Twins can get the 4th pick is as a good a reason as they have had in some time.:)

ThePuck
09-23-2013, 01:52 PM
James, I agree with you. King Theo was paid 18.5M to turn the loveable losers around, and he's been there longer than Ryan. Winning out so the Twins can get the 4th pick is as a good a reason as they have had in some time.:)

First, Epstein and Ryan don't hold the same positions in their organizations.

Second, yes, Epstein has been with the Cubs longer than Ryan has been back as GM....but it's important everyone knows that longer, in this case, is by less than a month...same offseason. Hardly worth mentioning that Epstein has been their 'longer'...unless your agenda is to say, hey, he's had a whole three weeks longer to turn around the club.

Third, Ryan didn't even leave the organization....he's been part of it for a very long time...part of the culture, a person who helped define the Twins way and their philosophies on the type of players they target and the type of ball they play

Fourth, Epstein hadn't been with the Cubs for a boatload of years, contributing to the downfall of the farm system, prior to returning...and, again, he's not the GM.

Besides those things, it's a completely even comparison...

gunnarthor
09-23-2013, 03:19 PM
First, Epstein and Ryan don't hold the same positions in their organizations.

Second, yes, Epstein has been with the Cubs longer than Ryan has been back as GM....but it's important everyone knows that longer, in this case, is by less than a month...same offseason. Hardly worth mentioning that Epstein has been their 'longer'...unless your agenda is to say, hey, he's had a whole three weeks longer to turn around the club.

Third, Ryan didn't even leave the organization....he's been part of it for a very long time...part of the culture, a person who helped define the Twins way and their philosophies on the type of players they target and the type of ball they play

Fourth, Epstein hadn't been with the Cubs for a boatload of years, contributing to the downfall of the farm system,prior to returning.

Besides those things, it's a completely even comparison...

Well, we should probably add in financial resources too. Unless we're ignoring that, too.

ThePuck
09-23-2013, 03:27 PM
Well, we should probably add in financial resources too. Unless we're ignoring that, too.

I don't know what the other stuff we're ignoring is, I added stuff that we needed to not ignore, not the other way around, but if we wanna throw payroll in, Cubs payroll this year is 106...ours could be that big if we chose for it to be that big. Cubs payroll was 109M in 2012 and ours was 100M...not too far off there. Or is the point, hey they spend 24M more than us but are just as bad? Is that the point?

Again, Epstein isn't the GM of the Cubs, bringing him up in comparison to Ryan makes no sense, because they aren't doing the same job.

nicksaviking
09-23-2013, 03:28 PM
Well, we should probably add in financial resources too. Unless we're ignoring that, too.

We shouldn't, but we then also shouldn't ignore the Pohlads' vocal affirmation that the Twins do not have any financial limitations.

In that scenario, the only limitations are the GM's ability or willingness to use those resources.

howieramone
09-23-2013, 03:52 PM
We shouldn't, but we then also shouldn't ignore the Pohlads' vocal affirmation that the Twins do not have any financial limitations.

In that scenario, the only limitations are the GM's ability or willingness to use those resources.The limitation is the GM's ability to find and sign value. King Theo recently said something interesting about how people thought you merely had to "X" a box to obtain the FA's you wanted. Only 30 GM's in all of baseball, there's a never ending supply of fans who know a better way.

InfraRen
09-23-2013, 04:33 PM
Mauer shut down...helps the L column these last 8 games... :)

gunnarthor
09-23-2013, 07:32 PM
We shouldn't, but we then also shouldn't ignore the Pohlads' vocal affirmation that the Twins do not have any financial limitations.

In that scenario, the only limitations are the GM's ability or willingness to use those resources.

I think the Pohlad's are happy to have a GM like Ryan who has had success with small payrolls and is willing to jump on a grenade for them on payroll issues. I think the Pohlad's fired Smith b/c he wanted to spend money. I don't blame Ryan for that.

clutterheart
09-23-2013, 08:04 PM
So looks like #5 or 6 looks to be almost a lock
Unfortunately this means we will have to watch Det celebrate at Target Field.
At least their is no pool for them to jump into.

Brandon
09-25-2013, 10:45 PM
I see us getting either the 4th pick or 5th as Seattle is now 3 games back and has the 6th pick currently but the Twins at 66-92 are only a .5 game back of the Cubs who are 66-93 for the 4th pick. Looks like this one will go down to the wire. I hope the Twins pull this one out. (and get the 4th pick)

howieramone
09-25-2013, 11:00 PM
I see us getting either the 4th pick or 5th as Seattle is now 3 games back and has the 6th pick currently but the Twins at 66-92 are only a .5 game back of the Cubs who are 66-93 for the 4th pick. Looks like this one will go down to the wire. I hope the Twins pull this one out. (and get the 4th pick) I'm just starting to take a look at the way too early projected picks. 4th would be great, but 5th will work just fine. As an OP has stated this draft is made for us. At a quick glance, I see our C or SS of the future, or an ace.

cmb0252
09-25-2013, 11:08 PM
-We are only .5 games behind the Cubs. We would have to finish with a worse record because in a tie they would get the higher pick
-We have 4 games vs a team still fighting for a playoff spot while the Cubs have 3 games vs a team who has insured a spot.
-Seattle is currently up 3-0 in the 7th and if they win that makes it certain we at least get 5.
-With Mauer/Arcia out there is not much to root for except for the Twins to get the 4th overall pick two years in a row.

gunnarthor
09-26-2013, 10:38 AM
-
-With Mauer/Arcia out there is not much to root for except for the Twins to get the 4th overall pick two years in a row.

Yep.:(

nicksaviking
09-26-2013, 10:58 AM
Well I know most people want to see Gardy gone, me included, but he's been a good soldier for this club and fired or not, Twins fans really have no reason to actually dislike the man. I'd like to see him get his 1,000 win. Just not sure I'd prefer that over the #4 pick.

Missing out on both marks would probably be a disappointing scenario but disappointment abounds at Target Field lately so that's exactly what I expect to happen.

InfraRen
09-26-2013, 11:24 AM
I see Seattle won, so we've got 5th in the bag with hopes for 4th. Honestly hoping we lose out and grab the 4th spot. Future is more important than 1000 wins for Gardy.

cmb0252
09-26-2013, 11:52 AM
I see Seattle won, so we've got 5th in the bag with hopes for 4th. Honestly hoping we lose out and grab the 4th spot. Future is more important than 1000 wins for Gardy.

If we knew for sure Gardy wasn't coming back I would root for his 1000th win but all indications point to him being back next year. The money difference in picks is just too much for me not to watch the Twins to have a higher pick.

InfraRen
09-26-2013, 01:16 PM
If we knew for sure Gardy wasn't coming back I would root for his 1000th win but all indications point to him being back next year. The money difference in picks is just too much for me not to watch the Twins to have a higher pick.

Exactly. Pretty exciting to know that we should (if the Twins want) end up with someone like Turner, Hoffman, Touissant, Jackson, Beede or Gatewood.

cmb0252
09-26-2013, 01:55 PM
Exactly. Pretty exciting to know that we should (if the Twins want) end up with someone like Turner, Hoffman, Touissant, Jackson, Beede or Gatewood.

Don't forget Kolek! Twins showed last year they are not afraid of taking a HS power arm. Dude has such a nasty fastball.

Winston Smith
09-26-2013, 03:35 PM
We must respect the game and try winning every game. I learned that reading the unwritten rules of baseball!

IdahoPilgrim
09-26-2013, 04:51 PM
We must respect the game and try winning every game. I learned that reading the unwritten rules of baseball!

Wow, those glasses really do work!:)

Jeremy Nygaard
09-26-2013, 08:44 PM
Exactly. Pretty exciting to know that we should (if the Twins want) end up with someone like Turner, Hoffman, Touissant, Jackson, Beede or Gatewood.

I would drop Toussaint and Beede off of that list (for now). Definitely add Kolek (better prospect than Stewart at this point a year ago). Give me a top 5 of Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Hoffman and Turner right now and I'd be happy with any of them.

maxisagod
09-26-2013, 09:45 PM
I would drop Toussaint and Beede off of that list (for now). Definitely add Kolek (better prospect than Stewart at this point a year ago). Give me a top 5 of Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Hoffman and Turner right now and I'd be happy with any of them.

That would probably be my list too. There are little things I enjoy as a prospect watcher, like being included in every short hand ranking of predraft prospects (top 5) . Or being ahead of the Cubs and grabbing guys they like, after they target several international players this year. It's not much, but I'd rather pick ahead of them instead of right behind them.

twinsfan34
09-26-2013, 10:48 PM
Don't forget Kolek! Twins showed last year they are not afraid of taking a HS power arm. Dude has such a nasty fastball.

Agreed. He'd be in my top 3.

twinsfan34
09-26-2013, 10:50 PM
Tied with the Cubs now :)

66-93. Although, if tied, it goes to team with the worse record last year (Cubs #3, Twins #4)...so yeah. We have to 'beat' them outright to get the #4 pick this year.

shs_59
09-27-2013, 02:22 AM
Obviously I am hoping for Matt Hoffman !!!!!!!!

And i now have a connection to a ground grew member at Cedar Rapids IA team!
Yae !!!!!!!!!!! :-) cheap tix for next year!

I'd say #1 : Hoffman, Rodon, Turner, Toussaint, and Jackson then Kolek + they'll be 1 or 2 names not listed in that top 10 come the summer.

InfraRen
09-27-2013, 08:40 AM
Ah, yeah Kolek looks legit. I haven't dug in a ton yet, so didn't know much about him. 99 MPH FB? Sheesh. Couple of nice off-speed pitches too.


http://ht.ly/p4c2e

Also, someone school me more on Jacob Gatewood - very intrigued.

Bob Sacamento
09-27-2013, 08:58 AM
Tied with the Cubs now :)

66-93. Although, if tied, it goes to team with the worse record last year (Cubs #3, Twins #4)...so yeah. We have to 'beat' them outright to get the #4 pick this year.I can see the Cubs winning maybe one against the Cards same with the Twins and Indians. One of the few times I'll be rooting for the Cubs to lose to the Cardinals.

jimbo92107
09-27-2013, 09:24 AM
Thursday evening I googled a few 2014 mock drafts. All of them had the Twins picking a catcher. After seeing a few weeks of Josmil Pinto, I really don't see the need. Pinto appears to be all the Twins need in a young, talented catcher. His approach at the plate reminds me of Brian Harper, he's strong and agile, and his defensive techniques look fundamentally sound.

The Twins should once again use their first pick to draft the most talented pitching prospect available. Most of the field positions look well stocked for a run a few years from now, when good young pitching will be just what the team needs.

InfraRen
09-27-2013, 09:32 AM
Thursday evening I googled a few 2014 mock drafts. All of them had the Twins picking a catcher. After seeing a few weeks of Josmil Pinto, I really don't see the need. Pinto appears to be all the Twins need in a young, talented catcher. His approach at the plate reminds me of Brian Harper, he's strong and agile, and his defensive techniques look fundamentally sound.

The Twins should once again use their first pick to draft the most talented pitching prospect available. Most of the field positions look well stocked for a run a few years from now, when good young pitching will be just what the team needs.

I agree with you. I don't know much about Jackson but I had the same gross feeling when I saw mocks with us taking Reese McGuire last year.

Monkeypaws
09-27-2013, 09:42 AM
Not to mention the 3 catchers they drafted in their top 10 last season.

nicksaviking
09-27-2013, 09:50 AM
Yeah, I'd pass on Jackson as well but not because Pinto looks good. The success rate of HS catchers since Joe Mauer is virtually zero. Plus Jackson sounds iffy to stick at catcher.

My top five would be Rodon, Kolek, Turner, Hoffman and Gatewood. I'm guessing I'll probably fall in love with Hoffman next year but the Cape Cod League rockstars lost a little luster for me after the Manaea disappointment last year.

I've always wanted the best talent (or at least best pitcher) but if it's close, perhaps a college guy is the best bet next year considering how many power HS arms there are. You probably can't get two big time prep players with your top two picks anymore.

nicksaviking
09-27-2013, 09:53 AM
Not to mention the 3 catchers they drafted in their top 10 last season.


All of whom stunk up the rookie leagues. Catchers are crapshoots in the draft, more so than other players it seems. Most of the time they are developed organically and unexpectedly like Pinto.

InfraRen
09-27-2013, 10:05 AM
Right, and all the ones they drafted were defensive specialists. Gross.

I do like Pinto, go elsewhere in the draft. Pitcher, pitcher, pitcher. Just keep stocking up. We've done well with Meyer, May, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Berrios, Eades, Jorge. At least there are guys to look forward to now. But I'd keep stocking up.

nicksaviking
09-27-2013, 10:09 AM
All of whom stunk up the rookie leagues. Catchers are crapshoots in the draft, more so than other players it seems. Most of the time they are developed organically and unexpectedly like Pinto.

And as I type this BA comes along and ranks Stuart Turner the #18 prospect in the Appy League. I must be missing something. .721 OPS' for big program, college bats in rookie league don't exactly turn my crank.

gunnarthor
09-27-2013, 10:25 AM
It really looks like will be able to get a pitcher either at #4 or 5 if we want one. Should be a good draft for us. Hopefully we get a quick mover.

gunnarthor
09-27-2013, 10:27 AM
And as I type this BA comes along and ranks Stuart Turner the #18 prospect in the Appy League. I must be missing something. .721 OPS' for big program, college bats in rookie league don't exactly turn my crank.

He's a sure thing to stick at catcher, has decent plate discipline and he had a long season. His defense is well regarded. His ceiling may not be that high but he has a pretty decent floor (backup strong defensive catcher) that's easy to reach.

Dman
09-27-2013, 12:05 PM
I think the Twins should go pitcher with there top pick unless short stop Trea Turner is available then I would go him. It would be crazy to have Hicks, Buxton and Turner in the lineup to give us 3 speed guys. My dream lineup would be Buxton, Turner, Mauer, Sano, Arcia, Pinto, Dozier, Rosario and Hicks. I think that would be a pretty tough lineup for any pitcher to get through.

cmb0252
09-27-2013, 12:11 PM
Ah, yeah Kolek looks legit. I haven't dug in a ton yet, so didn't know much about him. 99 MPH FB? Sheesh. Couple of nice off-speed pitches too.


http://ht.ly/p4c2e

Also, someone school me more on Jacob Gatewood - very intrigued.

Here is Kiley McDaniels scouting report on him:
Scout.com: Scouting Report: Jacob Gatewood (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1306609.html)

Very interesting prospect with a verity of opinions on him. 6'4 HSer that is very lean and long. Some say he is a surefire SS who could be the next Tulo while others think he will have to move to 3B at some time. I have seen some also compare him to Correa from the 2012 draft. He struggled in the HS showcases in game but crushed batting practices. One of the writers for perfect games had him as the best prospect in the 2014 (yes, above Rod).

nicksaviking
09-27-2013, 12:56 PM
Here is Kiley McDaniels scouting report on him:
Scout.com: Scouting Report: Jacob Gatewood (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1306609.html)

Very interesting prospect with a verity of opinions on him. 6'4 HSer that is very lean and long. Some say he is a surefire SS who could be the next Tulo while others think he will have to move to 3B at some time. I have seen some also compare him to Correa from the 2012 draft. He struggled in the HS showcases in game but crushed batting practices. One of the writers for perfect games had him as the best prospect in the 2014 (yes, above Rod).

Yeah, Gatewood will likely be among my top two picks if he improves from his Jr. year. Hoffman has helium, but I think Gatewood is likely the only guy who could challenge Rodon for the top pick. It's going to be hard to pass him up if he contiunes to get A-Rod/Tulowitzki comps.

cmb0252
09-27-2013, 01:33 PM
Jim Callis' early take on the 2014 draft:

"The 2014 Draft is a solid group that impresses scouts more than the 2012 and 2013 talent pools. College pitching is always a prized commodity, and there's plenty behind Rodon, starting with right-handers Jeff Hoffman (East Carolina) and Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt). There's more velocity this year in the high school ranks, with righty Tyler Kolek (Shepherd, Texas, HS) leading the way with a consistent upper-90s fastball.

The pitchers stand out more than the position players, though there are plenty of intriguing bats. Catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson (Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego) and shortstop Jacob Gatewood (Clovis, Calif., HS) offer plenty of power, while Trea Turner (North Carolina State) has uncommon speed and is a rare collegian who should be able to play shortstop in the Majors"

Pipeline Inbox: Surveying 2014 Draft field | MLB.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130927&content_id=61864804&c_id=)

cmb0252
09-27-2013, 01:36 PM
Yeah, Gatewood will likely be among my top two picks if he improves from his Jr. year. Hoffman has helium, but I think Gatewood is likely the only guy who could challenge Rodon for the top pick. It's going to be hard to pass him up if he contiunes to get A-Rod/Tulowitzki comps.

Gatewood is one heck of a talent and you might be right that he could battle Rodon for the #1 spot. Personally I'm a huge Turner fan. Keith Law has been down on him as of late but I love the idea of a Turner and Buxton hitting 1/2 in our lineup. Both have 80 speed and will play premium defense at premium positions.

diehardtwinsfan
09-27-2013, 06:12 PM
Honestly, I'm not a terrible fan of speed guys offensively. I like them in my OF, but beyond that I'd prefer guys with some pop. I'd rather have Gatewood over Turner personally, and while I won't cry if they end up with Turner, I'd rather go with a pitcher or Gatewood with that pick. I'd be perfectly fine grabbing another HS arm like Kolek. You can never have enough of those type of guys.

Dman
09-27-2013, 06:52 PM
Honestly, I'm not a terrible fan of speed guys offensively. I like them in my OF, but beyond that I'd prefer guys with some pop. I'd rather have Gatewood over Turner personally, and while I won't cry if they end up with Turner, I'd rather go with a pitcher or Gatewood with that pick. I'd be perfectly fine grabbing another HS arm like Kolek. You can never have enough of those type of guys.

Yeah power is good and speed guys do have a tendency to get hurt but the nice thing about speed guys is even if a pitcher walks them they are pesky because they can steal second and be in scoring position right away. You can walk a power guy to get around him and try and set up a double play as they are typically slow. A team needs both types of players to put stress on the opposing team. Hard to find guys with 80 speed and it is good to have them at short and center field. Power is great but in my opinion not the be all end all. I also like pitching prospects for the Twins. I am not opposed to Gatewood but I don't know much about him.

InfraRen
09-27-2013, 09:23 PM
Looks like both us and Cubs gonna lose tonight.

AM.
09-28-2013, 05:20 AM
The Cards clinched, and will be hungover today against the Cubs. On the other hand, the Indians are tied with the Rays a game ahead of Texas.

Pretty good chance the Cubs win and the Twins lose today.

diehardtwinsfan
09-28-2013, 06:59 AM
Yeah power is good and speed guys do have a tendency to get hurt but the nice thing about speed guys is even if a pitcher walks them they are pesky because they can steal second and be in scoring position right away. You can walk a power guy to get around him and try and set up a double play as they are typically slow. A team needs both types of players to put stress on the opposing team. Hard to find guys with 80 speed and it is good to have them at short and center field. Power is great but in my opinion not the be all end all. I also like pitching prospects for the Twins. I am not opposed to Gatewood but I don't know much about him.

I should probably clarify. I'm more of a power and OBP guy. Speed is nice, especially in the OF where there are some obvious defensive gains from it, I want guys 1-9 with some plate discipline and enough pop to scare pitchers into doing something other than grooving a fastball in the zone. Having Hicks and Buxton in the OF should satisfy most speed requirements for the forseable future, and while I won't get upset about Turner, I think I'd rather get the upside guys in Kokek or Gatewood.

Dman
09-28-2013, 08:21 AM
I should probably clarify. I'm more of a power and OBP guy. Speed is nice, especially in the OF where there are some obvious defensive gains from it, I want guys 1-9 with some plate discipline and enough pop to scare pitchers into doing something other than grooving a fastball in the zone. Having Hicks and Buxton in the OF should satisfy most speed requirements for the forseable future, and while I won't get upset about Turner, I think I'd rather get the upside guys in Kokek or Gatewood.

I totally agree with OBP. I too think that is the way to go. Typically speed guys have a good OBP because they can turn choppers into singles or can bunt to get on. Certainly not all of them but would be hoping Turner would as the reports I have seen say he has good plate discipline. Hopefully he would develop some pop as well although it wouldn't be Gatewood type pop.

The more I think about it and look at what is available I think I am hoping the Twins go pitcher with their pick. I am afraid we don't have enough guys in our system that have the potential to be 1, 2 or 3 in the bigs.

FYI I am a big fan of your posts on this site. I typically agree with most of your analysis and like your measured approach. You obviously know a lot more about the Twins and baseball than I do and I have learned a lot from you and many other posters here. I am glad you are on this site and respond to rookies like me.

Bob Sacamento
09-28-2013, 08:28 AM
The Cards clinched, and will be hungover today against the Cubs. On the other hand, the Indians are tied with the Rays a game ahead of Texas.

Pretty good chance the Cubs win and the Twins lose today.I don't know, Edwin Jackson, who has17 losses this year, is facing Wainwright who has 18 wins. The Cards can put out there B squad and it's still better than what the Cubs have starting. The Cubs have a better chance winning tomorrow against Kelly but Samardzija is pitching and he's tanked.

Note to Twins fans from a Cubs fan: Win a damn game or two!! Don't you know we suck really bad and need as much help as possible. Remember however bad you think you have it, at least your team has won the World Series in the last 100 years.

howieramone
09-28-2013, 09:07 AM
I don't know, Edwin Jackson, who has17 losses this year, is facing Wainwright who has 18 wins. The Cards can put out there B squad and it's still better than what the Cubs have starting. The Cubs have a better chance winning tomorrow against Kelly but Samardzija is pitching and he's tanked.

Note to Twins fans from a Cubs fan: Win a damn game or two!! Don't you know we suck really bad and need as much help as possible. Remember however bad you think you have it, at least your team has won the World Series in the last 100 years.

Holy Cow, Bob! What would Harry say?

Monkeypaws
09-28-2013, 09:36 AM
The Cards clinched, and will be hungover today against the Cubs. On the other hand, the Indians are tied with the Rays a game ahead of Texas.

Pretty good chance the Cubs win and the Twins lose today.

Especially with Cole DeVries as your starting pitcher.

Oldgoat_MN
09-28-2013, 10:00 AM
Especially with Cole DeVries as your starting pitcher.

I noticed that, too.

Hernandez, De Vries and Diamond? Is that what we have to close out our year?

Don't get me wrong, I wish the best for all 3. On paper, though, you'd think only the last game of the year looks like we have a chance.

We need serious help. Unlikely it will come from Cole or Pedro.

diehardtwinsfan
09-28-2013, 03:40 PM
I totally agree with OBP. I too think that is the way to go. Typically speed guys have a good OBP because they can turn choppers into singles or can bunt to get on. Certainly not all of them but would be hoping Turner would as the reports I have seen say he has good plate discipline. Hopefully he would develop some pop as well although it wouldn't be Gatewood type pop.

The more I think about it and look at what is available I think I am hoping the Twins go pitcher with their pick. I am afraid we don't have enough guys in our system that have the potential to be 1, 2 or 3 in the bigs.

FYI I am a big fan of your posts on this site. I typically agree with most of your analysis and like your measured approach. You obviously know a lot more about the Twins and baseball than I do and I have learned a lot from you and many other posters here. I am glad you are on this site and respond to rookies like me.

I appreciate the complement, and I tend to agree on the pitcher (though I think I'd make the exception for Gatewood, especially if the Twins think he can stick at SS). If rumors are true though, Gatewood won't make it to 4 or 5... If that's the case, I think I want Kolek.

cmb0252
09-28-2013, 05:01 PM
Looking at Jim Callis' early top 10 players last year compared to this years I can definitely say I'm a lot more excited for this group. I don't see us running into the debate about possibly drafting a HS toolsy outfielder!

Brandon
09-28-2013, 08:50 PM
So were tied with the Cubs for the 4th pick going into the last day of the season. How exciting is this that it comes down to the last game of the season to determine who gets the 4th pick in the draft. Too bad the Cubs have the advantage in case of a tie.

twinsfan34
09-28-2013, 09:38 PM
Cheer for the Phillies tonight. They're up, botton of the 9th. Atlanta loses, Cardinals get the best NL record, they could rest their starters tomorrow then. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

So we can hope...

twinsfan34
09-28-2013, 09:48 PM
Samardzija (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29166/jeff-samardzija) is pitching tomorrow afternoon too. So Cubs are putting their best foot forward so to speak. And the Cardinals are starting Jake Westbrook (#5 starter)...maybe they pull the starters too. Would be ideal.

Just hope the Twins don't pull "a Vikings" and win the last game of the year...when it's so timely.

twinsfan34
09-29-2013, 08:28 AM
The Braves own the head to head tiebreaker, so if the two teams finish tied, Atlanta would have home field advantage in the playoff...so Cardinals will still be playing to win.

IdahoPilgrim
09-29-2013, 09:54 AM
Samardzija (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29166/jeff-samardzija) is pitching tomorrow afternoon too. So Cubs are putting their best foot forward so to speak. And the Cardinals are starting Jake Westbrook (#5 starter)...maybe they pull the starters too. Would be ideal.

Just hope the Twins don't pull "a Vikings" and win the last game of the year...when it's so timely.

Since I will be at the game, I hope the Twins do win ... and draft standing be darned.;)

twinsfan34
09-29-2013, 04:38 PM
Welp, even though we lost, 5th it is. Lost around $800,000 in salary slot value though.

Wish the Twins had a FA they could 'lose' this offseason by a team outside the top 10 picks as to gain an extra 1st RD pick.

ThePuck
09-29-2013, 04:44 PM
Welp, even though we lost, 5th it is. Lost around $800,000 in salary slot value though.

Wish the Twins had a FA they could 'lose' this offseason by a team outside the top 10 picks as to gain an extra 1st RD pick.

You mean, after we make the guy a qualifying offer of about 14M?

nicksaviking
09-29-2013, 05:07 PM
You mean, after we make the guy a qualifying offer of about 14M?

That is twice the amount of the "huge" salary Ryan gave to Willingham.

nicksaviking
09-29-2013, 05:13 PM
You mean, after we make the guy a qualifying offer of about 14M?

That is twice the amount of the "huge" salary Ryan gave to Willingham.

Edit: Mods, what are the consequences for accidentally double posting? I assume it is a severe penalty but I'm willing to suffer the consequences for my mistake.

ashburyjohn
09-29-2013, 05:33 PM
Edit: Mods, what are the consequences for accidentally double posting? I assume it is a severe penalty but I'm willing to suffer the consequences for my mistake.

An accidental banning.

ashburyjohn
09-29-2013, 05:33 PM
Edit: Mods, what are the consequences for accidentally double posting? I assume it is a severe penalty but I'm willing to suffer the consequences for my mistake.

An accidental banning.

Dance with Disco Dan
09-29-2013, 06:23 PM
Oh well. 1-9 down the stretch. The boys did all the could do to get that 4th pick. I hope all the top prospects stay healthy and productive. There are at least five players I'd be excited to add if the draft was today.

ScottyB
09-29-2013, 07:53 PM
Nick - one of your options on edit is delete. You can delete your second entry.

TheMind07
09-29-2013, 10:13 PM
Anyone else ecstatic about the late inning rally against the Tigers now?

InfraRen
09-30-2013, 11:17 AM
Can't wait to get into the full swing of things: speculation, pining for players - the weeks leading up to the draft are great.

ashburyjohn
09-30-2013, 01:26 PM
Anyone else ecstatic about the late inning rally against the Tigers now?

I'm fine with the #5 pick.

cmb0252
09-30-2013, 02:13 PM
I'm fine with the #5 pick.

A lot of people were fine with the #4 pick last year till experts started to say there was a value cut off after the first 3 picks (Appel, Gray, and Bryant). Also, look how much money the Rookies signed Gray under slot for. They were able to use that money a lot of other places. Even if rumors were true that the Twins had Stewart higher than most they might have had extra money to go after local boy Logan.

In the end they will get a top talent no matter what.

InfraRen
09-30-2013, 03:37 PM
Boom, fresh mock from today:

Dan Kirby, from MLB did a mock today - Kolek to Twins at #5.