PDA

View Full Version : Gibson sent down to AAA Rochester.



LaBombo
08-19-2013, 05:08 PM
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQexGVa_km9Pjdu0GbVyYiPPd1NjWJUt rlQc86dbohwEQiTR4NMdg

Kwak
08-19-2013, 05:17 PM
Kind of expected. He would be shut down soon enough anyway, and his performances did not indicate "major league". Will he improve next year? I certainly hope so--or it's off to the glue factory with this horse.

John Bonnes
08-19-2013, 05:17 PM
Has anyone read the Twins rationale on this? It isn't because they want him pitching there, right? Is he actually going to pitch there?

Riverbrian
08-19-2013, 05:21 PM
Gibson said that he doesn't want to go to the pen... He wants to continue to start and help Rochester win a championship.

If we can help Rochester win something... The affiliate would appreciate it I'm sure.

LaBombo
08-19-2013, 05:24 PM
Has anyone read the Twins rationale on this? It isn't because they want him pitching there, right? Is he actually going to pitch there?
If it were preordained due to arm conservation it would've been nice to know before he went out and got knocked around.

This way it looks like just another demotion after a rough outing.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 05:24 PM
Gibson said that he doesn't want to go to the pen... He wants to continue to start and help Rochester win a championship.

If we can help Rochester win something... The affiliate would appreciate it I'm sure.

He is really close to his innings limit, is he not? He might be able to give him 1 or 2 starts, but not much in the playoffs, correct?

drjim
08-19-2013, 05:27 PM
Has anyone read the Twins rationale on this? It isn't because they want him pitching there, right? Is he actually going to pitch there?

Are you looking for something other than horsebleep performance?

IdahoPilgrim
08-19-2013, 05:31 PM
He is really close to his innings limit, is he not? He might be able to give him 1 or 2 starts, but not much in the playoffs, correct?

No one knows what his innings limit is, or at least nobody is saying. That said, I think you're right - 1 or 2 starts is probably about it. And if he can get them a couple of wins, that could be big for them in the stretch. Tight race, every game may count.

My guess (and just that) is he finishes the regular Triple-A season and then is shut down, regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 05:33 PM
If it were preordained due to arm conservation it would've been nice to know before he went out and got knocked around.

This way it looks like just another demotion after a rough outing.

Wasn't the reason for waiting so long to get him up here because they wanted him up here for good?

Of course a rebuttal is that they couldn't have predicted he'd pitch this poorly.
To that, I say 2 things.
1) It should have been pretty well expected that he would struggle. Maybe not this much, but after all he's facing mlb hitters for the first time with a dead arm (140 IP after not pitching much last year).
2) At the time I said that was a dumb reason, because no matter how long you wait to call him is no guarantee that his performance won't warrant a demotion.

JUST TO BE CLEAR: I don't have a problem with the demotion, I have a problem with wasting 90+ of his freshest innings in AAA.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 05:33 PM
Bummer....Hicks and Gibson.......just a bummer

IdahoPilgrim
08-19-2013, 05:37 PM
JUST TO BE CLEAR: I don't have a problem with the demotion, I have a problem with wasting 90+ of his freshest innings in AAA.

Of course, he wasn't that sharp in Triple-A at first either. It wasn't until mid-May that he hit his stride and was actually deserving of a callup. Maybe he should have been up a couple of weeks earlier (3 starts?) but not more than that.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 05:40 PM
Of course, he wasn't that sharp in Triple-A at first either. It wasn't until mid-May that he hit his stride and was actually deserving of a callup. Maybe he should have been up a couple of weeks earlier (3 starts?) but not more than that.

I disagree. He should have been here as soon as he was physically ready.
He's 25 (almost 26, I believe?) years old. What harm is done if he struggles a bit then, we fall out of the division race?

Halsey Hall
08-19-2013, 05:45 PM
Seems like I was the only one that didn't think he was ready when brought up, but felt, well, give it a go. Perhaps management felt the same way. After all he did pitch a few good games, but usually followed by not so good. Might as well see what he does. He's done it now, and not so good. If he can help Rochester win a couple, all the better. Same with Colabello. I think Gibson will be better next season, but he won't ever be the ace some seem to have him pegged as.

Halsey Hall
08-19-2013, 05:47 PM
I disagree. He should have been here as soon as he was physically ready.
He's 25 (almost 26, I believe?) years old. What harm is done if he struggles a bit then, we fall out of the division race?

The Twins try to put a player in a position where he will have some success. That's why.

IdahoPilgrim
08-19-2013, 05:50 PM
I disagree. He should have been here as soon as he was physically ready.
He's 25 (almost 26, I believe?) years old. What harm is done if he struggles a bit then, we fall out of the division race?

I understand the argument that he needs MLB experience to know how to pitch in MLB. That said, if he's not ready, he's not ready, and should not be up.

I guess it comes down to whether his struggles are due to arm fatigue or just not enough preparation in the minors (like Hicks). I'm guessing that many will assume the issue is arm fatigue, but Gibson himself said just last week that his arm still feels strong. Granted, you can't always go on what an athlete says, but neither can we assume the opposite either.

If it is arm fatigue, your point is well made. If it is that he just needs to learn a little more, then bringing him up earlier would have made no difference - he still would have been rocked, just in July rather than August.

There could be some benefit to this move in addition to supporting the affiliate in a playoff run. Perhaps Kyle can take some of his MLB experience and his "schooling" in what he needs to work on and focus on that in a slightly lower pressure environment.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 05:53 PM
The Twins try to put a player in a position where he will have some success. That's why.

And they achieved that by calling him up to face MLB hitters for the first time in his life with a dead arm?
That's my whole point, call him up while his arm is fresh and he has a chance, don't call him up after he's thrown 100 innings (after not pitching much last year) and throw him to the wolves.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 05:55 PM
Seems like I was the only one that didn't think he was ready when brought up, but felt, well, give it a go. Perhaps management felt the same way. After all he did pitch a few good games, but usually followed by not so good. Might as well see what he does. He's done it now, and not so good. If he can help Rochester win a couple, all the better. Same with Colabello. I think Gibson will be better next season, but he won't ever be the ace some seem to have him pegged as.

Who has him pegged as an ace?
I think most people have been on the same page since the day he was drafted that his upside is a solid #2 or good #3.
And I don't think his performance this year changes that one bit. I take nothing out of this other than he got some valuable experience, and I wish he had gotten a chance with a fresh arm, but the numbers don't concern me.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 05:58 PM
I understand the argument that he needs MLB experience to know how to pitch in MLB. That said, if he's not ready, he's not ready, and should not be up.

I guess it comes down to whether his struggles are due to arm fatigue or just not enough preparation in the minors (like Hicks). I'm guessing that many will assume the issue is arm fatigue, but Gibson himself said just last week that his arm still feels strong. Granted, you can't always go on what an athlete says, but neither can we assume the opposite either.

If it is arm fatigue, your point is well made. If it is that he just needs to learn a little more, then bringing him up earlier would have made no difference - he still would have been rocked, just in July rather than August.

There could be some benefit to this move in addition to supporting the affiliate in a playoff run. Perhaps Kyle can take some of his MLB experience and his "schooling" in what he needs to work on and focus on that in a slightly lower pressure environment.

Again, the bolded is kind of my point.
No matter how long you wait to call him up, he is going to have to face MLB hitters for the very first time in his life at some point.
He is not an elite prospect. He should never have been expected to come up and dominate. No matter how long you wait, there was going to be a learning curve, I don't care if you wait until he's 35.
So, if you are going to have that learning curve either way, why not give him a shot when you know his arm is fresh, rather than later when it now has to become a question of, is his arm dead, or is he just bad?

snepp
08-19-2013, 06:04 PM
The Twins try to put a player in a position where he will have some success. That's why.

Aaron Hicks says, "News to me!"

LaBombo
08-19-2013, 06:06 PM
Aaron Hicks says, "News to me!"
Ouch. Too soon.

drjim
08-19-2013, 07:34 PM
And they achieved that by calling him up to face MLB hitters for the first time in his life with a dead arm?
That's my whole point, call him up while his arm is fresh and he has a chance, don't call him up after he's thrown 100 innings (after not pitching much last year) and throw him to the wolves.

This is a lame excuse. It would have a little validity if he as good for the first 4-5 starts and then started to fade, but he has been pretty poor from the time he came up. He got a decent amount of innings in last year so he shouldn't have been so toast after less than 100 minor league innings.

I like Gibson and hope he does well, and the Twins surely need him, but we might want to start preparing for the fact that his stuff just might not be good enough.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 07:38 PM
This is a lame excuse. It would have a little validity if he as good for the first 4-5 starts and then started to fade, but he has been pretty poor from the time he came up. He got a decent amount of innings in last year so he shouldn't have been so toast after less than 100 minor league innings.

I like Gibson and hope he does well, and the Twins surely need him, but we might want to start preparing for the fact that his stuff just might not be good enough.

I think that would be a gross overreaction.
I'm putting little, if any stock into the numbers of this relatively SSS, considering ALL the factors.
P.S. For what it's worth, up until today his xFIP wasn't terrible, so I'm holding out hope that he did in fact come up here throwing well, and maybe had a little bit of bad luck which then progressed into fatigue.

darin617
08-19-2013, 08:08 PM
Has anyone read the Twins rationale on this? It isn't because they want him pitching there, right? Is he actually going to pitch there?

Most likely Gibson was going to get shut down soon because of the innings limit. I would have to say they don't want him to gain any more service time. Just watch they will let him pitch 1 or 2 more times at Rochester and then he will be done for the year.

darin617
08-19-2013, 08:12 PM
[QUOTE=Mr. Brooks;154428]Who has him pegged as an ace?
I think most people have been on the same page since the day he was drafted that his upside is a solid #2 or good #3.
Have you looked at the rest of the SP on the Twins? Who else could be an ace? nobody on the 40 man roster for sure.

Pius Jefferson
08-19-2013, 08:15 PM
Aaron Hicks says, "News to me!"

Different circumstances. Twins to their own fault had no real options to replace Hicks on the roster.

USAFChief
08-19-2013, 08:35 PM
I like Gibson and hope he does well, and the Twins surely need him, but we might want to start preparing for the fact that his stuff just might not be good enough.
+1.

We all want Gibson to end up a good major league starter. But, while SSS, fatigue, jitters, etc etc etc could certainly be part of the explanation, IMO he displayed nothing to get one's hopes up. He didn't throw hard, didn't display much in the way of breaking stuff, and didn't miss bats. He might have been the single biggest disappointment of 2013.

stringer bell
08-19-2013, 08:46 PM
I do agree that the results are disappointing. I suspect that results were effected by his poor luck, nervousness, fatigue, and probably loss of confidence. Perhaps he will need to rebuild his confidence in Rochester next spring, perhaps not. I will say that sending him to AAA has more to do with the roster crunch until the end of the season than anything else. I'm sure he'll be shut down after a couple more starts.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 09:12 PM
Have you looked at the rest of the SP on the Twins? Who else could be an ace? nobody on the 40 man roster for sure.

By "ace", I didn't mean simply the best pitcher on your respective team.
His upside is Brad Radke, in that he might be your #1 pitcher, but ideally he shouldn't be. Ideally he should be #2 or even #3 if you have a good staff.

Winston Smith
08-19-2013, 09:26 PM
So our rotation for next year is becoming crystal clear?
http://l.yimg.com/ck/image/A1642/164215/150_164215.jpg (http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=tD4dn5sN02PgzM&tbnid=xregF3YiEH8B_M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fvoices.yahoo.com%2Ftopic%2F19023% 2Fpositive_thinking.html&ei=s9MSUuKIBoje9ATAyoGwBg&bvm=bv.50768961,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNGT-jC32x9yKq22i2AKgta1hIRBPg&ust=1377051946064018)

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 10:15 PM
Kind of looking like sometimes trading prospects is a good idea....imagine if hicks was dealt for cliff lee....or if Gibson had been dealt.....not saying to give up on either, I am reminding people that prospects are not always going to work out, or maybe not on the timeline you imagine....

Kwak
08-19-2013, 10:33 PM
+1.

We all want Gibson to end up a good major league starter. But, while SSS, fatigue, jitters, etc etc etc could certainly be part of the explanation, IMO he displayed nothing to get one's hopes up. He didn't throw hard, didn't display much in the way of breaking stuff, and didn't miss bats. He might have been the single biggest disappointment of 2013.

May I introduce you to Aaron Hicks and Scott Diamond?

edited to add
Vance Worley

USAFChief
08-19-2013, 10:41 PM
May I introduce you to Aaron Hicks and Scott Diamond?
Diamond is a disappointment, but since I had zero expectations or hopes of him being a very good pitcher, the disappointment isn't that great.

Hicks showed a lot of talent IMO, just not results.

Gibson showed neither.

stringer bell
08-19-2013, 10:47 PM
So many disappointments: Hicks, Diamond, Gibson, Plouffe, Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Parmelee, Worley, Hendriks. Well, basically everybody but the bullpen. I guess Mauer has been pretty good, Arcia's had his moments, and much wasn't expected of Correia, Pelfrey, and Florimon.

Ultima Ratio
08-19-2013, 10:52 PM
Mets' announcers today felt bad for Gibson, hoping he'd get pulled because he was only throwing "lollypops" according to them.

Ouch.

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 11:04 PM
Most likely Gibson was going to get shut down soon because of the innings limit. I would have to say they don't want him to gain any more service time. Just watch they will let him pitch 1 or 2 more times at Rochester and then he will be done for the year.

This was my thought. While he already missed any service time plateaus this year, who knows if he spends more time in the minors next year. If the Twins were going to shut him down for the year, clearly they would prefer to do it at the AAA level.

Additionally, what else were they going to do with him if they decided to shut him down now? Create a bogus injury reason to place him on the DL or run a 24-man roster for two more weeks until you can expand the roster?

cmb0252
08-19-2013, 11:09 PM
Yeah, those stupid prospects messing up their time lines!

Gibson has pitched almost 150 innings this year after only throwing 28.1 last year while recovering from TJs. Hicks, a historically slow starter/slow developer, didn't set the world ablaze after a massive ~300 ABs. Bunch of bums! World is going to end!

Kwak
08-19-2013, 11:17 PM
Why does Gibson get a pass because "he's only in his second year after TJ surgery", yet Pelfrey motors on as if he never had surgery, but is simply "ineffective"?

Danchat
08-19-2013, 11:29 PM
All we can do at this point is hope and pray that Gibson will be better next year. Maybe his arm will be more fresh/healthy next year. But the outlook is looking dim once again.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 11:31 PM
Why does Gibson get a pass because "he's only in his second year after TJ surgery", yet Pelfrey motors on as if he never had surgery, but is simply "ineffective"?

Because Gibson is not only possibly gassed coming off TJ, but he's also facing MLB hitters for the first time in his life.
One or the other is difficult enough, let alone both at the same time.

Also, I'm not really giving Gibson "a pass" and not Pelfrey.
It's very likely that much of Pelfrey's struggles are due to fatigue as well. However, he's not a part of our future, like Gibson is, so I don't really care as much.

cmb0252
08-19-2013, 11:38 PM
Why does Gibson get a pass because "he's only in his second year after TJ surgery", yet Pelfrey motors on as if he never had surgery, but is simply "ineffective"?

Oh I don't know....maybe because while they both are coming back from TJs one had pitched ~900 innings in the bigs while the other hadn't even had a cup of coffee. I know Machado, Trout, and Harper made the transition to the bigs look easy, but it's not. After two 90+ lose seasons and a chance to have our third I understand why people lack patients. Doesn't change the fact the we should have it when it comes to these prospects.

Oxtung
08-19-2013, 11:49 PM
+1.

We all want Gibson to end up a good major league starter. But, while SSS, fatigue, jitters, etc etc etc could certainly be part of the explanation, IMO he displayed nothing to get one's hopes up. He didn't throw hard, didn't display much in the way of breaking stuff, and didn't miss bats. He might have been the single biggest disappointment of 2013.

Like the lifeline tossed to a man who fell overboard during a raging storm perhaps this will provide a glimmer of hope.

Gibson's fastball averaged 92.3 mph this season. If he qualified that would place him with the 28th fastest in MLB. Only 11 players averaged >93.3 mph. Only 6 players averaged >94 mph.

Batter's swung at 32.4% of Gibson's pitches outside the strike zone which would have ranked him 23. They made contact with his out of zone(OOZ) pitches 68.8% of the time which is average. Lohse, Cliff Lee, Gio Gonzalez, Greinke all have similar OOZ swing and miss rates.

Where Gibson especially struggled was with In Zone Contact rate (91%) and First Pitch Strikes (50.9%), and Strike % of all pitches thrown (39.9%) all of which would be bottom 5 in the league.

It seems to me that his IZC% could be driven by his poor FPS% which is in turn driven by his poor ability to actually throw strikes. If you're frequently starting behind hitters that is a problem. Poor command is a commonly stated side effect of TJ surgery; combined with only throwing 40ish innings last year I hope this will right itself next season. He is fooling batters into swinging and missing many of his pitches out of the zone so his stuff can't be that terrible. He won't become an Ace but a mid rotation pitcher still seems possible if he can improve his command.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 11:54 PM
Like the lifeline tossed to a man who fell overboard during a raging storm perhaps this will provide a glimmer of hope.

Gibson's fastball averaged 92.3 mph this season. If he qualified that would place him with the 28th fastest in MLB. Only 11 players averaged >93.3 mph. Only 6 players averaged >94 mph.

Batter's swung at 32.4% of Gibson's pitches outside the strike zone which would have ranked him 23. They made contact with his out of zone(OOZ) pitches 68.8% of the time which is average. Lohse, Cliff Lee, Gio Gonzalez, Greinke all have similar OOZ swing and miss rates.

Where Gibson especially struggled was with In Zone Contact rate (91%) and First Pitch Strikes (50.9%), and Strike % of all pitches thrown (39.9%) all of which would be bottom 5 in the league.

It seems to me that his IZC% could be driven by his poor FPS% which is in turn driven by his poor ability to actually throw strikes. If you're frequently starting behind hitters that is a problem. Poor command is a commonly stated side effect of TJ surgery; combined with only throwing 40ish innings last year I hope this will right itself next season. He is fooling batters into swinging and missing many of his pitches out of the zone so his stuff can't be that terrible. He won't become an Ace but a mid rotation pitcher still seems possible if he can improve his command.

Good stuff, thanks.

cmb0252
08-19-2013, 11:58 PM
Like the lifeline tossed to a man who fell overboard during a raging storm perhaps this will provide a glimmer of hope.

Gibson's fastball averaged 92.3 mph this season. If he qualified that would place him with the 28th fastest in MLB. Only 11 players averaged >93.3 mph. Only 6 players averaged >94 mph.

Batter's swung at 32.4% of Gibson's pitches outside the strike zone which would have ranked him 23. They made contact with his out of zone(OOZ) pitches 68.8% of the time which is average. Lohse, Cliff Lee, Gio Gonzalez, Greinke all have similar OOZ swing and miss rates.

Where Gibson especially struggled was with In Zone Contact rate (91%) and First Pitch Strikes (50.9%), and Strike % of all pitches thrown (39.9%) all of which would be bottom 5 in the league.

It seems to me that his IZC% could be driven by his poor FPS% which is in turn driven by his poor ability to actually throw strikes. If you're frequently starting behind hitters that is a problem. Poor command is a commonly stated side effect of TJ surgery; combined with only throwing 40ish innings last year I hope this will right itself next season. He is fooling batters into swinging and missing many of his pitches out of the zone so his stuff can't be that terrible. He won't become an Ace but a mid rotation pitcher still seems possible if he can improve his command.

Great read. Real informative. Thanks for posting.

drjim
08-20-2013, 07:18 AM
Good stuff Oxtung. Hopefully he rests up this offseason and comes back strong with improved control.

stringer bell
08-20-2013, 08:04 AM
Good stuff Oxtung. Hopefully he rests up this offseason and comes back strong with improved control.The command has been the surprising thing for me. Gibson has walked a high number of guys, but beyond that seems to be going 2-0, 3-1 to just about every batter. At Rochester, he threw a lot of strikes and got a lot of ground balls. I figured, at worst, he could come up and be a (good) Silva-Blackburn type who didn't miss many bats, but generated a goodly number of grounders. At best, I was thinking about good pitchers who generate a high percentage of grounders, but still get their 7+ Ks per nine innings. It just hasn't happened this year.

mike wants wins
08-20-2013, 08:12 AM
Yeah, those stupid prospects messing up their time lines!

Gibson has pitched almost 150 innings this year after only throwing 28.1 last year while recovering from TJs. Hicks, a historically slow starter/slow developer, didn't set the world ablaze after a massive ~300 ABs. Bunch of bums! World is going to end!

Wow, that totally ignored everything I said about not giving up on them.....but the sarcarsm was dripping, so I won't go thirsty at work today I guess.

USAFChief
08-20-2013, 08:20 AM
Gibson's fastball averaged 92.3 mph this season. If he qualified that would place him with the 28th fastest in MLB.
I think you meant to say "28th among those who qualified," right?

Shane Wahl
08-20-2013, 08:32 AM
Like the lifeline tossed to a man who fell overboard during a raging storm perhaps this will provide a glimmer of hope.

Gibson's fastball averaged 92.3 mph this season. If he qualified that would place him with the 28th fastest in MLB. Only 11 players averaged >93.3 mph. Only 6 players averaged >94 mph.

Batter's swung at 32.4% of Gibson's pitches outside the strike zone which would have ranked him 23. They made contact with his out of zone(OOZ) pitches 68.8% of the time which is average. Lohse, Cliff Lee, Gio Gonzalez, Greinke all have similar OOZ swing and miss rates.

Where Gibson especially struggled was with In Zone Contact rate (91%) and First Pitch Strikes (50.9%), and Strike % of all pitches thrown (39.9%) all of which would be bottom 5 in the league.

It seems to me that his IZC% could be driven by his poor FPS% which is in turn driven by his poor ability to actually throw strikes. If you're frequently starting behind hitters that is a problem. Poor command is a commonly stated side effect of TJ surgery; combined with only throwing 40ish innings last year I hope this will right itself next season. He is fooling batters into swinging and missing many of his pitches out of the zone so his stuff can't be that terrible. He won't become an Ace but a mid rotation pitcher still seems possible if he can improve his command.

I really believe that this is the only post in this whole discussion that needs to be read. Nice job!

Brock Beauchamp
08-20-2013, 08:36 AM
This is a lame excuse. It would have a little validity if he as good for the first 4-5 starts and then started to fade, but he has been pretty poor from the time he came up. He got a decent amount of innings in last year so he shouldn't have been so toast after less than 100 minor league innings.

I like Gibson and hope he does well, and the Twins surely need him, but we might want to start preparing for the fact that his stuff just might not be good enough.

Actually, I don't think Gibson has been that bad. He has disintegrated in two games and suffers from control issues, which is common after TJS. Other than that, he looks like a guy entering MLB games for the first time. Not great appearances but not horrible, either... Usually 5-6 IP, 3-4 ER, too many walks. Gets behind batters, gets hit too hard.

I'm not sure what people expected from him. He's coming off TJS and is likely facing dead arm. Sure, it'd be nice to see better performances from him but I'm not going to get too worked up about it yet. If he starts off 2014 this way, I'll be much more concerned.

Brock Beauchamp
08-20-2013, 08:38 AM
Like the lifeline tossed to a man who fell overboard during a raging storm perhaps this will provide a glimmer of hope.

Gibson's fastball averaged 92.3 mph this season. If he qualified that would place him with the 28th fastest in MLB. Only 11 players averaged >93.3 mph. Only 6 players averaged >94 mph.

Batter's swung at 32.4% of Gibson's pitches outside the strike zone which would have ranked him 23. They made contact with his out of zone(OOZ) pitches 68.8% of the time which is average. Lohse, Cliff Lee, Gio Gonzalez, Greinke all have similar OOZ swing and miss rates.

Where Gibson especially struggled was with In Zone Contact rate (91%) and First Pitch Strikes (50.9%), and Strike % of all pitches thrown (39.9%) all of which would be bottom 5 in the league.

It seems to me that his IZC% could be driven by his poor FPS% which is in turn driven by his poor ability to actually throw strikes. If you're frequently starting behind hitters that is a problem. Poor command is a commonly stated side effect of TJ surgery; combined with only throwing 40ish innings last year I hope this will right itself next season. He is fooling batters into swinging and missing many of his pitches out of the zone so his stuff can't be that terrible. He won't become an Ace but a mid rotation pitcher still seems possible if he can improve his command.

Great post.

drjim
08-20-2013, 08:47 AM
Actually, I don't think Gibson has been that bad. He has disintegrated in two games and suffers from control issues, which is common after TJS. Other than that, he looks like a guy entering MLB games for the first time. Not great appearances but not horrible, either... Usually 5-6 IP, 3-4 ER, too many walks. Gets behind batters, gets hit too hard.

I'm not sure what people expected from him. He's coming off TJS and is likely facing dead arm. Sure, it'd be nice to see better performances from him but I'm not going to get too worked up about it yet. If he starts off 2014 this way, I'll be much more concerned.

I hope you're right.

Brock Beauchamp
08-20-2013, 08:52 AM
I hope you're right.

Well, he's throwing hard and that's a good sign. He's generating swings and misses, another good sign.

I think this can be chalked up to watching a guy learn how to pitch while simultaneously recovering from surgery and possibly facing a bit of dead arm.

Let's not forget that this kind of performance isn't uncommon and Gibson has a lot working against him right now. Matt Garza came into the league late in the season, pitched the same number of starts, posted a 5.5 ERA, struck out 6 per 9, and walked 4 per 9. He turned out fine and while he was younger than Gibson, he wasn't coming off surgery at the time, either.

E. Andrew
08-20-2013, 09:07 AM
Where Gibson especially struggled was with In Zone Contact rate (91%) and First Pitch Strikes (50.9%), and Strike % of all pitches thrown (39.9%) all of which would be bottom 5 in the league.

That was the worst part. When he though strikes it looked like BP, unfortunately.

Have to give him props for facing the camera (http://www.startribune.com/video/220265051.html#/220265051/video/1/hpmrt).

"In 75 or 78 pitches [72, actually] I hit my spot on 27 of them. So, obviously, that's not good enough."

Kwak
08-20-2013, 10:27 AM
I thank those that answered why Gibson "gets a Pass" and Pelfrey "gets the lash"--basically "we need Gibson to succeed" but "Pelfrey is just a placeholder". OK, I understand. But if Gibson's 2014 is a repeat of 2013--then what?

Oxtung
08-20-2013, 10:39 AM
I think you meant to say "28th among those who qualified," right?

Yes. That is out of 90 qualified pitchers.

jokin
08-20-2013, 10:53 AM
But if Gibson's 2014 is a repeat of 2013--then what?

Cole DeVries on line 2....

jokin
08-20-2013, 11:00 AM
Well, he's throwing hard and that's a good sign. He's generating swings and misses, another good sign.

I think this can be chalked up to watching a guy learn how to pitch while simultaneously recovering from surgery and possibly facing a bit of dead arm.

Let's not forget that this kind of performance isn't uncommon and Gibson has a lot working against him right now. Matt Garza came into the league late in the season, pitched the same number of starts, posted a 5.5 ERA, struck out 6 per 9, and walked 4 per 9. He turned out fine and while he was younger than Gibson, he wasn't coming off surgery at the time, either.

Thanks alot for throwing cold water on the "All Hope is Lost" vibe coursing through this thread- way too overboard on the negativity.

I fully expect (and the underlying facts support the expectation) Gibson in 2014 to resemble more closely the semi-consistently lights-out pitcher in Rochester in May and June..... than his July and June dead-arm, steep learning curve pitcher.

mike wants wins
08-20-2013, 11:04 AM
Agreed, I still expect a number 3 type pitcher going forward....

Brock Beauchamp
08-20-2013, 11:18 AM
Thanks alot for throwing cold water on the "All Hope is Lost" vibe coursing through this thread- way too overboard on the negativity.

I fully expect (and the underlying facts support the expectation) Gibson in 2014 to resemble more closely the semi-consistently lights-out pitcher in Rochester in May and June..... than his July and June dead-arm, steep learning curve pitcher.

Yep. Give him an offseason to rest, get ready for MLB pitching in 2014, and then reserve judgment for May/June of that season. If he continues to struggle through the first half of 2014, then we should be concerned.

ashburyjohn
08-20-2013, 12:39 PM
Yes. That is out of 90 qualified pitchers.

I think Chief's point, which I agree with, is that if you include a guy like Gibbie who doesn't qualify then you need to expand the list in some appropriate way to really judge where he ranks as a fireballer. There could be a lot of guys not quite qualifying for innings who have live fastballs but aren't actually good enough to earn those innings.

LaBombo
08-20-2013, 12:46 PM
I think Chief's point, which I agree with, is that if you include a guy like Gibbie who doesn't qualify then you need to expand the list in some appropriate way to really judge where he ranks as a fireballer.
Or you could just cut to the chase and compare him to the snowballers who populate an organization that has generally been terrified of employing pitchers who throw hard enough to break glass...