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View Full Version : Still so far away/ the time is now.



Mr. Brooks
08-18-2013, 06:02 PM
Today's performance was another reminder (OK, I never really forgot) of just how bad this team is, and just how far away we still are.

I often hear it tossed around that it is all just the necessary growing pains for what is going to be a resurgance beginning in 2015. (Some have even suggested 2014, to which I am speechless.)

I'm sorry, but I just can't see anything that soon as being possible.
We could be in this mess for several more years to come.

I think some of that optimism might have been valid coming into the season, after all it was supposed to be a year in which we identified which players were going to be a part of that future. (That is of course, unless you believe the words of the front office, when they adamantly claimed that they were putting a contending team on the field.)

Yet, here we, a little more than 3/4 through the season, and not a whole lot has become much clearer.
In fact, aside from Dozier, and perhaps Arcia, the things that have become clearer have been negatives.

Here it is, 8/18, and Terry Ryan still chooses to roster a 25 man team full of players who will (or at least SHOULD) not have any part of our future.

Here it is, 8/18 and Gardy still chooses to field a lineup full of players who will (or again, SHOULD) not be part of our next division winning team.

Gardy continues his obsession with carrying 3 catchers, rather than evaluating someone who could possibly be a part of the future.
Even in the extremely unlikely situation where you are forced to finish a game without your DH, what is the worst consequence of that? You might lose an otherwise winnable game? In a season like this, I say big deal. Is the 0.1% chance of losing an otherwise winnable game worth demoting a player who just a week ago you claimed needed everyday AB's so we could see what we had in him?

Among our position players, we have perhaps 3 or 4 players who might actually be a part of our future?
Sorry, that is not good enough.
Rip the Astros and Marlins all you want, but at least their losing is for a better cause.
At least those clubs are rolling with guys who might be a part of something down the road. At least those clubs aren't trotting out guys like Doug Bernier, Ryan Doumit, Clete Thomas, Wilkin Ramirez, and Chris Herrmann.

Coming into the season I heard our starting rotation couldn't possibly be as bad.
Fast forward 102 games, and it's just as bad, with no reason to believe it will get better anytime soon.

Even if Sano pans out and replaces Plouffe, and Buxton pans out and becomes Mike Trout, and Rosario pans out and moves Dozier for a prospect (he was a disaster at SS, not sure where else you can move him), even if Meyer pans out and replaces Correia or Pelfry, does that turn us into a division winner? I don't think it's nearly enough.

In order to create an environment where our top prospects can thrive and propel us back to the top of the division, they are going to need to be augmented by an overhaul in philosophy by both upper and field management.
No more bargain bin hunting for starting pitchers.
No more waiting until guys hit their lowest possible value before moving them.
No more giving valuable playing time to guys who don't have a future here.
No more complaining about a lack of bench move options, when you are carrying 13 pitchers and 3 catchers.
No more sitting Arcia against lefties, just so that a journeyman like Wilkin Ramirez can "get some swings in".
No more catchers and DH's playing in the outfield.
No more throwing young players under the bus in the media when they make a mistake. It's not exactly breaking news that young, inexperienced players are going to make mistakes. Handle those things behind closed doors.
No more mocking and thumbing your nose at advanced metrics. Both statistical AND scouting analysis are needed in the modern game. Don't let your pride be your downfall.

In closing, I'm as excited as anyone about our farm system. I can't tell you exciting it is to have a once in a generation prospect like Buxton doing the things he's doing, to have a legit impact bat like Sano, and a couple front line starter prospects in Meyer and Stewart.
But until/unless Terry Ryan is willing/able to augment those guys by being more aggressive in free agency and in the international market (I'm talking about the big $$$ guys not covered by the spending pool), it's not going to be enough.
And until/unless Gardy is willing/able to admit that he has some major flaws in how he fills out the lineup card and handles certain players, it's not going to be enough.
The time is now. We are at a tipping point. This thing is about to go one of two ways, the necessary pains of a rebuilding process, or simply just one more lost season in the midst of a long stretch of bad baseball.
Things have to change this offseason if this organization is serious about winning.
Gardy has proven he is capable of being a good manager, and Terry Ryan has proven he is capable of being a good GM. But, nobody is immune to being passed on by time.
The MLB, like most businesses, is constantly evolving and shifting. It's time for those two guys to step up and admit that there are mistakes being made, and organizational beliefs that need to be changed.
If they insist on winning, I have faith that they can.
If they insist on winning "their way", then we might be in for a long run of ineptitude.

Sorry, extremely long winded rant over.

Brock Beauchamp
08-18-2013, 06:12 PM
The pitching, while still awful, is not "just as bad". It's a full half run better in ERA.

Mr. Brooks
08-18-2013, 06:17 PM
The pitching, while still awful, is not "just as bad". It's a full half run better in ERA.

That is mostly due to an improved bullpen.
I was clearly referring to starting pitching. Our starters are only 0.3 runs better, and with the real Deduno stepping forward, it could be much closer by the end of the year.

benchwarmerjim
08-18-2013, 07:03 PM
I'd rather see Herrmann in the lineup than Clete Thomas.

Anyway, Im not one to get overly worked up about roster construction and stuff, (Im not sitting in the GMs office listening to phone calls and rarely do you get useful info during interviews), or who why a guy is in Gardy's doghouse (again, not in the lockerroom so I dont know the full story)

but this off season is a huge one. (cliche alert!!!). The Twins absolutely have to get a stud pitcher, whether it be through trade or free agency. Too me, its "#1 with a bullet" priority. Because if next season the starting pitching staff looks like what we have this year, there is no hope to luck into 90 wins and then make a run in the playoffs.

Willihammer
08-18-2013, 07:47 PM
Would it be fair to say that you view the 2013 Twins' position similarly to the 2010 Astros or the 2012 Marlins'?

Mr. Brooks
08-18-2013, 07:55 PM
Would it be fair to say that you view the 2013 Twins' position similarly to the 2010 Astros or the 2012 Marlins'?

I don't know. I'm not sure I follow those organizations closely enough to know what type of organizational changes they made.

I'm just saying that I think there are issues other than talent that needs to be addressed. Such as avenues for acquiring talent, the Twins over reliance on "traditional" scouting, their disdain for advanced metrics and outside input, their relative "conservative" approach to FA (Terry Ryan seems scared to death to make a big $$ mistake, well, IMO you can't win if you don't play), and several other areas that I feel need to be addressed.

I'm not giving up on the GM or the manager, I hope I am clear in that.
Both have proven, while flawed, they are CAPABLE of being successful. I just feel they have failed to adapt thus far, are stuck in a previous era that no longer exists.
If they can be self critical, and address their shortcomings, I think they can rebound. If they are not capable of that, and choose to stubbornly plow ahead with what right now is not working, then it could be a long decade.

diehardtwinsfan
08-18-2013, 08:00 PM
I guess I'm not sure what you are arguing for. We have a nice farm, you've said so yourself. If we sign a crap load of players, those guys get blocked. If you are saying "Go out and get a good FA pitcher to complement these guys when they come up", I think you have a point, but I don't think you'll be able to make 2014 a playoff caliber team by what's available in free agency, even if the Pohlads gave Ryan the green light to spend on whatever he wanted. Nor do I think trading from that farm is particularly wise either. The time is now to stockpile talent that fits into this next group of guys.

Rebuilds are typically a five year process. We are in year three, and I suspect we will really start seeing reasons to get our hopes up next year and in 2015. It takes time.

Danchat
08-18-2013, 08:28 PM
Look... I haven't enjoyed all these veteran players playing. We haven't traded any veterans for some real prospects... (shoulda maybe traded Perkins?) Doumit in RF has given me stomachaches. Why is he playing there? There are so many players who aren't apart of the future and are starting. That's what I don't like.

And on the starting pitching, I knew it would be this horrible. I'm glad we got May and Meyer, but I think May will be a bullpen pitchers and Meyer needs to stay healthy.

clutterheart
08-18-2013, 08:51 PM
That is mostly due to an improved bullpen.
I was clearly referring to starting pitching. Our starters are only 0.3 runs better, and with the real Deduno stepping forward, it could be much closer by the end of the year.

Don't Blame Deduno for today.
Very few pitchers could have success with an outfield consisting of:
Ramirez CF
Arcia - RF
Willingham - LF

There were more than a few doubles that could have been singles or even outs if Hicks was in the line-up.
This is not Gardy's fault as its Ryan who sets the roster

clutterheart
08-18-2013, 09:00 PM
I think the Pirates are the model to build on here. They have some really nice position player talent with some nice pitching but went out and spent 30 Million on Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez. Those guys took the pressure off their young players and now they are in first and now they have the talent to go far in the postseason if they get there.

Ryan's plan probably is to wait until Buxton/Sano come up and see where the pitching staff is at. But we still need to wait 2 years for that.

The problem is the team has Joe Mauer who is one of the best players in the game. And Ryan is wasting Mauer's years catching for this pitching staff.

BUT. As a fan, I can wait through the bad years, because I see amazing things coming down the pipeline.

That pitching staff in E-town is so young but there is a lot of talent there. I would guess none of those guys will be ready until 2016 or so...but...I can wait.

Rosterman
08-18-2013, 09:15 PM
Sometimes I cringe with Gardy's line-up construction. But considering that the team has NO LEGIT #1 and #2 hitters this year, who can argue (leave Mauer at #3). Then we get to who bats clean-up, let alone 5th and 6th. We have no problem putting guys in the 7th-8th-9th spots.

We can't argue about who Ryan didn't sign this past off-season. It was a dismal crop in the end. I just wish we could totally start over (someone claim Correia) with a new crop of wannabees and rejects and revivals in 2014. Of course, ....

2014 will be the real season to see what we have.

Chris Merrmann and Josmil Pinto (and maybe Rohfling) will get shots at catcher.
Parmelee will make or break himself as a first baseman. Colabello is a temporary choice, nothing mroe, nothing less.
Dozier is the place-setter at second/
We need someone other tha nFlorimon or escobar at shortstop, but both will have next season to impress.
Plouffe will egt at bats and then has to make the decision to long for free agency or become a utility/bench guy.
Arcia will hold down an outfield spot.
Hicks is still questionable. Could see him starting next season at AAA. But who else will the Twins field...Bigley, Mastro. It's too bad Benson didn't totally realize the opportunity he had.
We have Worley and Hendriks and Deduno and Albers and Diamond and whomever for the rotation. Okay, Gibson go be up or down again. Maybe May or Meyer will shine.
The bullpen is overstocked. Will the Twins 40-man Aaron Thompson. Will Tonkin shine in September. Will Oliveros and Guerra come back. There is strength in the bullpen with the only casuality being Roeincke....probably.

2014...the same players will have an opportunity to show that they will stay as others push from the wings - Rosario, Sano, Vargas, maybe Buxton, Santana.

But the Twins better be stockpiling monies for 2015. I expect them to open the vault bigtime to pursue a bat or two, at least one qualified long-term starter, and maybe a fantastic bench vet.

howieramone
08-18-2013, 09:22 PM
They will have the bats by 2015. Only question is starting pitching.

Willihammer
08-18-2013, 09:33 PM
I don't know if they'll need to wait that long necessarily.

I could see this lineup out of ST 2014:

Dozier
Mauer 1B
Hammer
Sano
Arcia
Plouffe DH
Doumit C
Mastroianni
Florigroan / Escobar / Bernier / Free Agent

That lineup could struggle, or, with a few breaks, right they could put up some crooked numbers I think.

TheLeviathan
08-18-2013, 09:54 PM
I don't know if they'll need to wait that long necessarily.

I could see this lineup out of ST 2014:

Dozier
Mauer 1B
Hammer
Sano
Arcia
Plouffe DH
Doumit C
Mastroianni
Florigroan / Escobar / Bernier / Free Agent

That lineup could struggle, or, with a few breaks, right they could put up some crooked numbers I think.

That lineup inspires me as much as the 2013 lineup inspired me before the season: not much.

I like Arcia to really bust out next year (though it's about time we start talking about the fact that he's a DH, because holy hell is he brutal in the OF), but other than that I see a lot of injuries and disappointments in that group. We're still too far away from debuts and even if they do debut, we have to be fair and expect struggles.

raindog
08-18-2013, 09:57 PM
I don't know if they'll need to wait that long necessarily.

I could see this lineup out of ST 2014:

Dozier
Mauer 1B
Hammer
Sano
Arcia
Plouffe DH
Doumit C
Mastroianni
Florigroan / Escobar / Bernier / Free Agent

That lineup could struggle, or, with a few breaks, right they could put up some crooked numbers I think.

I don't think that lineup is going to strike fear into any team's hearts. Starting pitching will still be bad.

2015 will be the earliest the Twins can compete unless something miraculous happens.

beckmt
08-18-2013, 09:57 PM
I don't know if they'll need to wait that long necessarily.

I could see this lineup out of ST 2014:

Dozier
Mauer 1B
Hammer
Sano
Arcia
Plouffe DH
Doumit C
Mastroianni
Florigroan / Escobar / Bernier / Free Agent

That lineup could struggle, or, with a few breaks, right they could put up some crooked numbers I think.

Not an unreasonable lineup, still need starting pitching and should have the money to sign some.

jorgenswest
08-18-2013, 10:04 PM
I don't know if they'll need to wait that long necessarily.

I could see this lineup out of ST 2014:

Dozier
Mauer 1B
Hammer
Sano
Arcia
Plouffe DH
Doumit C
Mastroianni
Florimon / Escobar / Bernier / Free Agent

That lineup could struggle, or, with a few breaks, right they could put up some crooked numbers I think.

That would be a historically bad defensive line up. Mastroianni will be below average in CF. Sano may be at the bottom of the league. Arcia will be close. Willingham should be DH. The Twins may be the only team in baseball that would play Doumit at catcher.

If the Twins want to develop pitching, they need to have a real defense behind them. Long term, it is better for the development of pitchers if they start with a foundation of defense.

It might be better to have fewer crooked numbers on both sides.

mike wants wins
08-18-2013, 10:16 PM
Which pitchers, exactly, would new pitchers block? I count zero legit MLB pitchers on this roster. And no one in AAA. At least the Astros and Marlins were honest about their rebuilds. Rip the Marlins all you want, but they traded their vets at peak.....what, exactly, has Ryan done that makes next year look better? Meyer, may, Correia? That is what he has added so far. How does that make you feel about next year?

Kwak
08-18-2013, 10:25 PM
Wait until 2016? Maybe Rookie League pitchers will become all-stars, maybe I'll lose 25 lbs?
...maybe the Twins decide to spend money and put a better team on the field next year? Or is it the strategy to pour Kool-Aid, tout the "best minor league system in the majors", and use the profit to pay down the short-term debt--yeah that's "The Twins Way". I can only imagine what quote they will use in 2015 when Sano and Buxton on on the Twins and the minor league system falls to league average. Maybe: "These are your Minnesota Twins--get to know 'em"! ...and pray.

CGNikolic
08-18-2013, 10:25 PM
I would put the struggles on this franchise much more on Ryan than on Gardy, as he is just trying to field the best lineup he can and win every night. He cannot be focused on the future, because that is the mentality that leads to managers being fired. Righting this ship is on Ryan to start spending more (although I think the Pohlads love his spending habits, and may be a big part of it) and for us to keep building our farm system, while trading away veterans who are not part of our future. It is the same thing as Philadelphia, Manuel should not have been blamed or fired, and neither should Gardenhire. This is on Ryan and the regime before him. And if anyone gets punished for the on going struggles from the last three years, it is the FO. I like Ryan a lot don't get me wrong, but this is all much more on him than Gardy and his staff. You can't win games with an outfield like the one that was thrown out there today. I would not be surprised if Gardy resigns at some point.. but I hope that the Twins have the decency to realize he is not the problem. And DO NOT fire him in midseason like Philadelphia just unmercifully did to Manuel.

clutterheart
08-18-2013, 11:16 PM
If Bernier makes the team out of Spring Training Ryan failed as a GM.
He's a great story and all but...I have seen him play SS and it wasn't fun.

clutterheart
08-18-2013, 11:23 PM
I count zero legit MLB pitchers on this roster. And no one in AAA.

Thats a little extreme. But I guess "legit" is in the eye of the beholder. I think every starter on the team right now is a legit MLB pitcher. Hell even Diamond could make a lot of teams out of spring training.

The problem is they are all back end #5 type guys. No one who is going to be consistent and could open a playoff series without shame. (or even pitch the 3rd game of the playoffs)

So I would say:
There isn't any GOOD starting pitchers on the team, and Gibson is probably the only one who has the potential to be good.

Marta Shearing
08-19-2013, 07:48 AM
I don't know if they'll need to wait that long necessarily.
I could see this lineup out of ST 2014:

Dozier
Mauer 1B
Hammer
Sano
Arcia
Plouffe DH
Doumit C
Mastroianni
Florigroan / Escobar / Bernier / Free Agent

That lineup could struggle, or, with a few breaks, right they could put up some crooked numbers I think.
No thanks to any lineup including Plouffe.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 08:33 AM
I count two, Correia and Gibson. Ryan has said several times it's a transitional year. That's another way of saying rebuilding, as if it really matters.

Actually, the Twins stated, while trying to sell tickets last year, that they would do what it took to sign pitching, and that they expected to play meaningful games in the fall. Not once has this team admitted, to its fans or itself, that it is rebuillding. If it had, they never would have signed Doumit to an extension, for example.

Fair enough, there are probably a bunch of #5/AAAA starters on this roster.....but I guess that's just not enough for me.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 08:57 AM
I guess I'm not sure what you are arguing for. We have a nice farm, you've said so yourself. If we sign a crap load of players, those guys get blocked. If you are saying "Go out and get a good FA pitcher to complement these guys when they come up", I think you have a point, but I don't think you'll be able to make 2014 a playoff caliber team by what's available in free agency, even if the Pohlads gave Ryan the green light to spend on whatever he wanted. Nor do I think trading from that farm is particularly wise either. The time is now to stockpile talent that fits into this next group of guys.

Rebuilds are typically a five year process. We are in year three, and I suspect we will really start seeing reasons to get our hopes up next year and in 2015. It takes time.

What I am hoping for is to not stubbornly close off avenues for acquiring talent.
There are plenty of spots on this roster that could be improved without blocking a prospect.
You know as well as anyone that not all (in fact most) prospects don't pan out. I'm fine with holding spots for Sano, Buxton and Meyer, but beyond those 3, all spots should be open for improvement.

I'm arguing for a stop to this ignorance from the front office and the manager regarding advanced metrics, and outside input.
Sure, many of the advanced metrics can be flawed, but that doesn't mean you throw out the baby with the bathwater. Teams that have embraced these concepts are thriving, so obviously there is some good to be found in them.
They hired one stats guy, mostly (IMO) to appease the cries for it, as evidenced by Gardy's need to get cheap shots in (Cybermetrics).
When is the last time they looked outside the organization for input? Why not go try to find a rising star in one of the organizations that is actually thriving at what the Twins strive for (building a consistently competitive club on the cheap)?
Are you a fan of the HBO series The Newsroom?
I'm not sure if this is actually done, but on the show, when they are investigating a major news story, they intentionally keep some people in the dark, so that when the story is ready, they can use them as "The Red Team". The Red Team's job is to be a fresh set of eyes on the story, free of bias and emotional attachment, to look at the story and try to poke holes in it for credibility.
It seems like a good concept to me. But, the Twins organization seems to live in a bubble, they seem to think that they are superior, and to invite someone in from outside the organization would be a sin.
Sometimes it seems to me that winning "their way", is more important than winning.

I don't think you can complete a rebuild exclusively with prospects.Obviously
you want your foundation to be made up of homegrown talent, but it needs to be supported by key acquisitions, and those acquisitions can't always be found on the cheap.

Finally, I wan't Terry Ryan to prove capable of not being afraid to take a big risk in free agency.
As I said before, it seems like is his scared to make a big money mistake.
While you obviously don't want to make too many of them, other teams have shown that you can make 1 or 2 big mistakes in FA, and still overcome them.
You can't win if you don't play, you can't hit a HR if you don't swing the bat.
If there is a high priced FA pitcher, or a high priced Cuban FA who can help this team, I'd like to see Terry Ryan be aggressive and overpay a bit for them if he has to.

Kwak
08-19-2013, 09:19 AM
"Sometimes it seems to me that winning "their way", is more important than winning."

So true! GMs don't get kudos for doing the same thing everybody else does. Sort of like that line "...but if we win, we'll change baseball." That's the motto.

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 09:45 AM
I guess I'm not sure what you are arguing for. We have a nice farm, you've said so yourself. If we sign a crap load of players, those guys get blocked.

No, he does not want to sign a crap load of players, to me it seems he wants to sign a couple of actual upgrades. I'm with him, I cannot say enough how much I detest Ryan's five-for-a-dollar free agent stratagy. Those five guys ARE blocking the youngsters, use that money on one or two actual upgrades. Doumit, Carrol, Correia and Pelfrey had absolutely no business being on a team that started out the season at this stage of a rebuild. Go big in free agency or use the prospects, no more half-measures.

diehardtwinsfan
08-19-2013, 09:57 AM
I don't think anyone disagrees with the need to sign some actual upgrades. The disagreement is like more along the lines of "when" and not if. I don't agree when you say spots should only be reserved for Sano, Buxton, and Meyer (I'd add Stewart to this list, but he's got a ways to go). Spots have to be open to allow for tryouts. Guys like Rosario, May, Berrios, Parmelee, Darnell, Worley, Hicks, Tonkin, Pinto, etc. all need to get opportunities. In some cases (like starting pitching) spending some money and getting an established guy won't really get in the way of things. Getting several of them will. I personally think free agency needs to be targeted to fill in those gaps, but it's hard to know where those gaps are until the kids come up and start playing. That part takes patience.

I think we all agree that getting the KCs of the world is getting old. I don't have a problem with some bargain basement guys, but I want upside (like Harden), even with risk. Given where the Twins are, I don't see a whole lot of signings this year, as spots need to be open to let the kids play. I would be wholeheartedly in favor of a FA signing of one solid pitcher, but beyond that, lots of guys are going to need to get auditions, and I'd rather target high risk high reward type guys.

TheLeviathan
08-19-2013, 09:58 AM
Those five guys ARE blocking the youngsters

This is maybe the thing that is bugging me most right now. I'm really tired of watching Clete Thomas, Ryan Doumit, and the rest of the cavalcade of guys that won't be here in two years taking the bulk of the at-bats.

If we're going to be terrible I'd at least like it to be for a purpose. (Player progression)

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 10:05 AM
There are 25 spots on the MLB roster.
There is plenty of room to sign a couple of impact FA's without affecting the possibility of those handful of players you mention getting their shot at a roster spot when their time comes.

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 10:07 AM
I count two, Correia and Gibson. Ryan has said several times it's a transitional year. That's another way of saying rebuilding, as if it really matters.

Which of those two crack the Detroit rotation? Because to get the division crown back, the Twins will have to get back to the Tigers level. Hell, I have doubts those two crack the White Sox, Indians or Royals rotations. Wade Davis is probably the only current starter in the entire division on par with Correia and Gibson at the moment.

You know how the White Sox say rebuild? With 28-year-old John Danks and four starters 25 or younger. The Twins say it with 25-year-old Kyle Gibson and four broken down or AAAA retreads that will not contribute to the future.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 10:12 AM
Move Arcia to 1B, sign Ellsbury to play LF or CF, put Hicks back in LF or CF and someone else in RF......sign one "legit" FA starter (take your pick, Ryan). If Hicks can't play, you at least have Ellsbury. He has not shown signs of aging, and could be the kind of vet the young guys can watch/learn from, while still being effective. He will not be cheap, but would help this roster a lot. When Buxton comes up, Ellsbury is your LF, and your OF defense goes from AWFUL to AWESOME just like that.

BTW, no way the Twins do this plan.....

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 10:16 AM
Which of those two crack the Detroit rotation? Because to get the division crown back, the Twins will have to get back to the Tigers level. Hell, I have doubts those two crack the White Sox, Indians or Royals rotations. Wade Davis is probably the only current starter in the eniter division on par with Correia and Gibson at the moment.

You know how the White Sox say rebuild? With 28-year-old John Danks and four starters 25 or younger. The Twins say it with 25-year-old Kyle Gibson and four broken down or AAAA retreads that will not contribute to the future.

Okay, lets all get a grip with Gibson.
He's thrown 140 innings after not pitching last year. Couple that with facing MLB hitters for the first time in his life.
Everyone needs to calm down. The sky is not falling regarding Gibson. He's got legit talent. He's not an ace, but he should be a solid #2, or really good #3.
He absolutely should and will be given a spot in the next year's rotation.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 10:58 AM
Okay, lets all get a grip with Gibson.
He's thrown 140 innings after not pitching last year. Couple that with facing MLB hitters for the first time in his life.
Everyone needs to calm down. The sky is not falling regarding Gibson. He's got legit talent. He's not an ace, but he should be a solid #2, or really good #3.
He absolutely should and will be given a spot in the next year's rotation.

I agree, but we don't know that....and if true, that's 1....stilll leaves plenty of room to acquire a real starter w/o blocking someone....

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 11:02 AM
I agree, but we don't know that....and if true, that's 1....stilll leaves plenty of room to acquire a real starter w/o blocking someone....

Yeah I agree for sure.
I'm just amazed at the overreaction to Gibson's struggles, it almost should be expected given all the circumstances.

AROG
08-19-2013, 11:16 AM
No one rebuilds in a day. I don't have too many issues with the front office. TR has proven in the past that if he can get close to a team he feels is good enough, he will trade or pull in the FA's he needs to put it over the top.

My beef is with Gardy. Yesterday is a prime example of not bunting with Dozier to move the runners on first and second over. He refuses to play small ball. That is the roster he has. He disguises it with the "they need to see if they can hit in these situations" bs. You play the game the right way, all the time. It creates the winning attitudes needed to create winning teams. Dougy fresh has it right in Ft. Myers. Winning is contagious. Gardy isn't a winner.

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 11:18 AM
Okay, lets all get a grip with Gibson.
He's thrown 140 innings after not pitching last year. Couple that with facing MLB hitters for the first time in his life.
Everyone needs to calm down. The sky is not falling regarding Gibson. He's got legit talent. He's not an ace, but he should be a solid #2, or really good #3.
He absolutely should and will be given a spot in the next year's rotation.

I don't disagree at all, I was simply making the point that Gibson and Correia (who were mentioned before as capable pitchers) were in fact pitching worse than all but maybe one of the other 20 starters in the division.

Though another topic of discussion probably could be: Why are there seven other starters 25 or younger on the other four division teams and every single one of them is pitching better than the Twins prized prospect Gibson?

Regardelss Gibson is and shoud be in the future plans; I was actually pointing out that the White Sox had four pitchers Gibson's age in the rotation while the Twins continue to send out the vets to the detriment of the rebuild.

Brock Beauchamp
08-19-2013, 11:23 AM
My beef is with Gardy. Yesterday is a prime example of not bunting with Dozier to move the runners on first and second over. He refuses to play small ball. That is the roster he has. He disguises it with the "they need to see if they can hit in these situations" bs. You play the game the right way, all the time. It creates the winning attitudes needed to create winning teams. Dougy fresh has it right in Ft. Myers. Winning is contagious. Gardy isn't a winner.

I cheer every time Gardy doesn't call for a bunt.

The bunt is a decent option when you need one run, maybe two runs in the right situation.

The bunt is also a very good way to make sure you only get one run, maybe two runs in the right situation.

And the Twins were losing by three runs. A bunt is a bad call in that situation.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 11:24 AM
No one rebuilds in a day. I don't have too many issues with the front office. TR has proven in the past that if he can get close to a team he feels is good enough, he will trade or pull in the FA's he needs to put it over the top.

My beef is with Gardy. Yesterday is a prime example of not bunting with Dozier to move the runners on first and second over. He refuses to play small ball. That is the roster he has. He disguises it with the "they need to see if they can hit in these situations" bs. You play the game the right way, all the time. It creates the winning attitudes needed to create winning teams. Dougy fresh has it right in Ft. Myers. Winning is contagious. Gardy isn't a winner.

What? Name the FA he signed in teh 2000s to put them over the top.

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 11:25 AM
No one rebuilds in a day. I don't have too many issues with the front office. TR has proven in the past that if he can get close to a team he feels is good enough, he will trade or pull in the FA's he needs to put it over the top.

My beef is with Gardy. Yesterday is a prime example of not bunting with Dozier to move the runners on first and second over. He refuses to play small ball. That is the roster he has. He disguises it with the "they need to see if they can hit in these situations" bs. You play the game the right way, all the time. It creates the winning attitudes needed to create winning teams. Dougy fresh has it right in Ft. Myers. Winning is contagious. Gardy isn't a winner.

No, Ryan is the problem. Dozier maybe should have bunted, but when you consider that he is the second best hitter on the team right now and NOBODY is getting hits with runners in scoring postion, Gardy likely decided to roll the dice. I don't know that Gardy is right for a rebuild, but blaming him is silly, he has nothing to work with.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 11:25 AM
I cheer every time Gardy doesn't call for a bunt.

The bunt is a decent option when you need one run, maybe two runs in the right situation.

The bunt is also a very good way to make sure you only get one run, maybe two runs in the right situation.

And the Twins were losing by three runs. A bunt is a bad call in that situation.

Correct, giving away outs is stupid, except near the end of the game when the score is VERY close. I hate the sacrifice bunt. HATE IT. The stats are super clear on this, btw. This is not some random opinion.

ThePuck
08-19-2013, 11:26 AM
Here's a good article on the sacrifice bunt. BE AWARE, I am not giving an opinion one way or the other, just providing a link to read. Agree with it, don't agree with it...doesn't matter. It's a good read.

The Sacrifice Bunt: The Real Rally Killer | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-sacrifice-bunt-the-real-rally-killer/)

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 11:26 AM
No one rebuilds in a day. I don't have too many issues with the front office. TR has proven in the past that if he can get close to a team he feels is good enough, he will trade or pull in the FA's he needs to put it over the top.

My beef is with Gardy. Yesterday is a prime example of not bunting with Dozier to move the runners on first and second over. He refuses to play small ball. That is the roster he has. He disguises it with the "they need to see if they can hit in these situations" bs. You play the game the right way, all the time. It creates the winning attitudes needed to create winning teams. Dougy fresh has it right in Ft. Myers. Winning is contagious. Gardy isn't a winner.

1) I know rebuilding isnt done in a day. Its 3 years into it now. It's not like I'm starting this thread in May of 2011.

2) When has Terry ever pulled the trigger on a big $$, high impact free agent? I think the closest to that is Josh Willingham, which was only 3/24.
IMO it is going to take more than that to turn this ship around, as good as our farm system is, it's only going to take you so far.

3) I disagree 100% on your bunting argument. This is the AL, and it's not 1985. One of my biggest beefs with Gardy has always been wasting outs playing "small ball". With runners on 1st and 2nd, and no outs, you should be thinking "we got a chance for a big inning here!" not, "nice, we have a chance to bunt a guy over, and hit a sac fly for 1 run!".
If it is a guy who can't hit, like a Florimon or a Clete Thomas, then sure maybe you consider it. But, IMO, with your 2nd best hitter up it shouldnt even cross your mind in the AL.

jokin
08-19-2013, 11:27 AM
Which of those two crack the Detroit rotation? Because to get the division crown back, the Twins will have to get back to the Tigers level. Hell, I have doubts those two crack the White Sox, Indians or Royals rotations. Wade Davis is probably the only current starter in the entire division on par with Correia and Gibson at the moment.

You know how the White Sox say rebuild? With 28-year-old John Danks and four starters 25 or younger. The Twins say it with 25-year-old Kyle Gibson and four broken down or AAAA retreads that will not contribute to the future.

Which 2 would crack the Detroit rotation? I humbly ask and reiterate with emphasis what you later related, which 2 would crack the White Sox rotation?

The Sox have a clear 24 year old Ace, 3 very exciting additional young, live arms and a veteran stabilizing, innings-eating, presence in Danks. (Imagine feeling so comfortable about your rebuild, that you perceive you have the luxury of trading away 1.5 years of Jake Peavy for prospects).

Patrick Reusse summed up the weekend series quite well yesterday evening. His disgusted comments were something to the effect of:

"Just look at the 2 positional lineups trotted out for this weekend series, with the exception of Joe Mauer, there isn't one player on the Twins who you would choose over the corresponding Sox player. Coupled with 4 exciting young SP arms, the Sox are poised to be ready to compete as early as next year. The Twins?..... Still appear to have more questions than answers in how and when this rebuild is pronounced "completed."

Kwak
08-19-2013, 11:31 AM
This "arguement" is so bogus! If said FA is "blocking" said prospect then either said "prospect" isn't as good as advertised or the FA is very good. If the FA is "very good" it shouldn't be difficult to trade him. If the "prospect" isn't so hot--then why the burning need to promote him. This is especially true in pitchers--there are FIVE in the rotation--the teams #1 (who might not actually be a #1 anyplace else) isn't blocking the "prospect"--it's the #5 guy. Since he's #5, he is disposable anyway. The Twins DFA'd Livan Hernandez in August '08, and he "was credited" with 10 wins on his $5MM contract--this means another veteran can likewise be fired even with a sizeable chunk of money left on his contract in the future.

Oxtung
08-19-2013, 11:34 AM
I don't disagree at all, I was simply making the point that Gibson and Correia (who were mentioned before as capable pitchers) were in fact pitching worse than all but maybe one of the other 20 starters in the division.

Though another topic of discussion probably could be: Why are there seven other starters 25 or younger on the other four division teams and every single one of them is pitching better than the Twins prized prospect Gibson?

Regardelss Gibson is and shoud be in the future plans; I was actually pointing out that the White Sox had four pitchers Gibson's age in the rotation while the Twins continue to send out the vets to the detriment of the rebuild.

So you're making the argument that the twins should promote ______ to the rotation instead of signing vets? Coming into this season Meyer hadn't pitched above a-ball and May had struggled at AA. I guess the twins could have filled the rotation with two of Hernandez, De Vries, Darnell, etc but that isn't really going young either. Pat Dean? I guess I'm not sure what exactly you're arguing for here. It doesn't seem like the twins were in a position to call up a bunch of pitching prospects to start the season out thus they needed some veterans.

drjim
08-19-2013, 11:36 AM
I agree, but we don't know that....and if true, that's 1....stilll leaves plenty of room to acquire a real starter w/o blocking someone....

I'm not sure who you are disagreeing with here. Is anyone actually concerned abiut too much pitching depth? I think these references are more to blocking position players.

drjim
08-19-2013, 11:38 AM
No one rebuilds in a day. I don't have too many issues with the front office. TR has proven in the past that if he can get close to a team he feels is good enough, he will trade or pull in the FA's he needs to put it over the top.

My beef is with Gardy. Yesterday is a prime example of not bunting with Dozier to move the runners on first and second over. He refuses to play small ball. That is the roster he has. He disguises it with the "they need to see if they can hit in these situations" bs. You play the game the right way, all the time. It creates the winning attitudes needed to create winning teams. Dougy fresh has it right in Ft. Myers. Winning is contagious. Gardy isn't a winner.

So a lack of bunting is the problem?

drjim
08-19-2013, 11:42 AM
Move Arcia to 1B, sign Ellsbury to play LF or CF, put Hicks back in LF or CF and someone else in RF......sign one "legit" FA starter (take your pick, Ryan). If Hicks can't play, you at least have Ellsbury. He has not shown signs of aging, and could be the kind of vet the young guys can watch/learn from, while still being effective. He will not be cheap, but would help this roster a lot. When Buxton comes up, Ellsbury is your LF, and your OF defense goes from AWFUL to AWESOME just like that.

BTW, no way the Twins do this plan.....

Not sure I like this. Boston has more money, lesser of prospects coming up, they are closer to competing, and they know the health and ability of Ellbury better than anyone. If they pass on him not sure overpaying for 5-6 years is the best plan.

How big of a contract would you be willing to go?

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 11:47 AM
Which 2 would crack the Detroit rotation? I humbly ask and reiterate with emphasis what you later related, which 2 would crack the White Sox rotation?

The Sox have a clear 24 year old Ace, 3 very exciting additional young, live arms and a veteran stabilizing, innings-eating, presence in Danks. (Imagine feeling so comfortable about your rebuild, that you perceive you have the luxury of trading away 1.5 years of Jake Peavy for prospects).

Patrick Reusse summed up the weekend series quite well yesterday evening. His disgusted comments were something to the effect of:

"Just look at the 2 positional lineups trotted out for this weekend series, with the exception of Joe Mauer, there isn't one player on the Twins who you would choose over the corresponding Sox player. Coupled with 4 exciting young SP arms, the Sox are poised to be ready to compete as early as next year. The Twins?..... Still appear to have more questions than answers in how and when this rebuild is pronounced "completed."

And it's not like the White Sox are dipping into their loaded farm system, it has been ranked near the bottom for years. Of the four young arms in their rotation, only Sale was highly regarded. The other three never sniffed a top 100 list, yet the White Sox were able to identify, acuire, coach and groom your garden variaty minor league pitchers into useful major leaguers.

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 11:58 AM
So you're making the argument that the twins should promote ______ to the rotation instead of signing vets? Coming into this season Meyer hadn't pitched above a-ball and May had struggled at AA. I guess the twins could have filled the rotation with two of Hernandez, De Vries, Darnell, etc but that isn't really going young either. Pat Dean? I guess I'm not sure what exactly you're arguing for here. It doesn't seem like the twins were in a position to call up a bunch of pitching prospects to start the season out thus they needed some veterans.

Yeah, it's baren down there. But's baren due to this teams incompetance when it comes to identifing capable pitching in the amature ranks. Still, it's not like the White Sox young and promising staff is made up of top 100 prospects, only Sale was highly regarded.

Darnell, Dean and Hendricks should be in the rotation with Gibson along with which ever flavor of the month jounryman arm the team wants to roll the dice with this month. When healthy, Worely, Hernandez and Diamond should be in the rotation until it is made abundantly clear they cannot cut it. And boy does that make me sick typing that.

To be clear, I don't like any of those guys aside from Gibson long term, but at least they'd be trying to look for solutions instead of trying to paint a slightly rosier shade of pink on an already lost season. There is absolutely zero reason to keep pitching Correia and Pelfrey, there is nothing further to gain.

jokin
08-19-2013, 12:08 PM
So you're making the argument that the twins should promote ______ to the rotation instead of signing vets? Coming into this season Meyer hadn't pitched above a-ball and May had struggled at AA. I guess the twins could have filled the rotation with two of Hernandez, De Vries, Darnell, etc but that isn't really going young either. Pat Dean? I guess I'm not sure what exactly you're arguing for here. It doesn't seem like the twins were in a position to call up a bunch of pitching prospects to start the season out thus they needed some veterans.

Not speaking for Nick, but I think he's more talking about the starting pitching cupboard being bare, and not nearly enough has been done to keep that cupboard fully stocked- for immediate, intermediate and future time frames. The distant future (2017-18?) is beginning to look a lot better with the likes of Stewart, Gonsalves and Berrios. But the immediate and intermediate still looks fairly bleak.

Your highlighted comment is the problem, their philosophy needs radical adjustment. Why not call Kyle Gibson up when his arm was still fresh right after his near-no hitter in Rochester (preserving his Arb-2 status in favor of more starts for Worley and PJ seems pretty silly at this point)? Why not call up Albers, as veteran after veteran was continually flailing and failing in the spring and early summer? How can a rebuilding team seriously throw Perez and Harden into the mix as potential starting options on the depth chart?

Where is the failure in the Twins system that makes them unable to identify near-major league ready potential starters- ie, Ryan Pressly was their Rule 5 pick, but a failed starter..... A more major league ready starter available in the draft was 23 year old Kyle Lobstein, who could start for many teams, but is blocked in Detroit, so they have him stashed in AAA (I advocated for Lobstein or Lara at the time). The Twins needed more starting pitching options! Their pen was just fine! In another example among many, why would TR turn his nose up at acquiring Todd Redmond, for free on the waiver wire (he had 2 chances to claim him this spring)?

jokin
08-19-2013, 12:15 PM
Those Chicago teams are sure popular on this board.

Rebuilding teams that appear to be pursuing all avenues for the rebuild deserve to have attention thrown their way. The excitement level on the South Side concerning the young guys now with the Sox and the potential of all the recently-acquired prospects deserves our attention and possibly begrudging admiration, not bulletin board sarcasm, mockery and ridicule.

Kwak
08-19-2013, 12:36 PM
Teams rebuilding without "Top 100" prospects? Sacriledge! How are these guys expected to become competant major leaguers? Yes I am tired of the refrain "...but we have the best minor league system in baseball." The recent promotions from minors to majors have yet to identify anyone who will be a future all-star and there is considerable question whether any of these will be worth a contract tender when eligible for salary arbitration.

Arcia? Well let's say he won't ever be confused with Tony Oliva.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 01:09 PM
Not sure I like this. Boston has more money, lesser of prospects coming up, they are closer to competing, and they know the health and ability of Ellbury better than anyone. If they pass on him not sure overpaying for 5-6 years is the best plan.

How big of a contract would you be willing to go?

They have a CF tearing up AAA right now....they'd probably use the money elsewhere.

I'd go 5, $70/80? they have money to burn after this year. Get a legit hitter in there with Mauer. Get a legit defender in there. Imagine how much better the pitching is with him in LF, Buxton in CF, and Hicks / someone else in RF. Heck, if they refuse to sign anyone else, I'd give him a bundle next year, front loaded......

AROG
08-19-2013, 01:12 PM
The bunting in that situation was just one particular reference to Gardy not promoting a winning attitude. That was my big beef. You can lose but do so playing the game to win. When you're down by 2 or 3 in the middle innings, moving 2 runners to scoring position with your first out is baseball. The only situation you wouldn't do that is with your RBI guys. Just having them swing away? anyone can manage that. We don't need to pay someone to tell people to swing away.

I am concerned that Gardy is sending the message that winning the game doesn't matter, just go get your work in. Who cares about situations, just get the work in.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 01:29 PM
no, AROG, it is bad baseball. You should not give up outs in the middle innings. The math on this is super, super clear. It is bad strategy. It promotes losing, not winning. Bunting there is playing to lose, not playing to win.

ashburyjohn
08-19-2013, 01:41 PM
Rebuilding teams that appear to be pursuing all avenues for the rebuild deserve to have attention thrown their way. The excitement level on the South Side concerning the young guys now with the Sox and the potential of all the recently-acquired prospects deserves our attention and possibly begrudging admiration, not bulletin board sarcasm, mockery and ridicule.

Moderator's note: this thread has already drawn the attention of the moderators and further sarcasm, mockery and ridicule is not being tolerated. The post you responded to has been deleted as it was clearly flame-bait - moderation doesn't happen instantaneously - please don't take the bait.

Brock Beauchamp
08-19-2013, 02:00 PM
When you're down by 2 or 3 in the middle innings, moving 2 runners to scoring position with your first out is baseball.

It's bad baseball and the stats tell us this in a myriad of ways. Moving runners over is from a time when baseball managers just didn't know any better; we now have the information that tells us it's a bad idea because it limits your ability to score runs (you may be more likely to score one run but that's all you're going to score). Bunting, by and large, is not a winning strategy... The exact opposite, actually.

Honestly, any manager who bunts before the eighth inning with anything more than a one run game differential should be tossed out on his ass for being unable to understand simple mathematics.

Siehbiscuit
08-19-2013, 02:25 PM
List of Twins players/starters that would not even be on a team not named the Astros or Marlins:

CF - Clete Thomas
RF - Wilkin Ramirez
SS - Doug Bernier

Andrew Albers, Pedro Hernandez.

Players that might be a decent backup (or emergency 5th starter) on a ML club:

C- Ryan Doumit
SS - Pedro Florimon

Kevin Correia, Samuel Deduno and Mike Pelfrey

Players that could possibly start on a small handful of teams:

1B- Justin Morneau
3B - Trevor Plouffe
LF - Josh Willingham

Kyle Gibson, Scot Diamond

Solid everyday starters:

C- Joe Mauer
LF - Oswaldo Arcia
2B- Brian Dozier (barely makes the list)

Clearly, the quality of players is an issue. Pitchers and position players. Gibson is the only one that I think will be better next year. The Twins have SOOOOO many bad players that when someone mediocre is called up we as fans are excited. Willingham for example had a career year last year, but had been a journeyman prior to that. He isn't that good, yet he's our cleanup hitter! I think as Twins fans we live in a bubble and forget how good some of the players around the league really are. The talent level at the MLB level in this organization right now is abysmal! The Twins have a guy at AA that has hit 31 homers (he's 20) and the Twins MLB HR leader has 14 dingers. Our 2B is just off the clubhouse lead and his name isn't Robinson Cano. Our lineup is every bit as terrible as out pitching.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 02:27 PM
Rebuilding teams that appear to be pursuing all avenues for the rebuild deserve to have attention thrown their way. The excitement level on the South Side concerning the young guys now with the Sox and the potential of all the recently-acquired prospects deserves our attention and possibly begrudging admiration, not bulletin board sarcasm, mockery and ridicule.

Agreed.
We have to remember that the White Sox and Royals are in our division, so it is worth paying attention to what they are doing.
So many people seem to have the attitude of well, "they are the Sox and the Royals, we beat up on them for years, surely they'll never be a threat to us."
In reality, those teams are setting themselves up for some possible nice runs in the near future.
As someone pointed out regarding the Ruesse comments, not many spots on the roster where you would hesitate to swap our guy for theirs.
Obviously that should change, if our prospects pan out. But for the time being, with Detroit set up to compete for years to come, Cleveland with a strong nucleus and management, and the Royals and White Sox with good, young, intriguing talent, the days of this being an easy division to win might be coming to an end.
I could see a legitimate meat grinder, like the AL East of some years, oncce we are ready to compete again. The 2000's are not coming back.
That doesn't mean we can't win, but the days of putting together a roster full of #4 and #5 pitchers, a quality bullpen, and a "scrappy" lineup that "gets after it", and hoping to dominate the Central are never coming back.

AROG
08-19-2013, 02:28 PM
no, AROG, it is bad baseball. You should not give up outs in the middle innings. The math on this is super, super clear. It is bad strategy. It promotes losing, not winning. Bunting there is playing to lose, not playing to win.

The stats don't take everything into account. The way a pitcher pitches with a one run lead is different then when they pitch with a three run lead. Stats can tell you what you want them to tell you. I'm not saying that they are 100% not useful but it would be foolish to play the game 100% by them.

I understand the math, I really do, it is just something that we will disagree on, sorry.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 02:30 PM
List of Twins players/starters that would not even be on a team not named the Astros or Marlins:

CF - Clete Thomas
RF - Wilkin Ramirez
SS - Doug Bernier

Andrew Albers, Pedro Hernandez.

Players that might be a decent backup (or emergency 5th starter) on a ML club:

C- Ryan Doumit
SS - Pedro Florimon

Kevin Correia, Samuel Deduno and Mike Pelfrey

Players that could possibly start on a small handful of teams:

1B- Justin Morneau
3B - Trevor Plouffe
LF - Josh Willingham

Kyle Gibson, Scot Diamond

Solid everyday starters:

C- Joe Mauer
LF - Oswaldo Arcia
2B- Brian Dozier (barely makes the list)

Clearly, the quality of players is an issue. Pitchers and position players. Gibson is the only one that I think will be better next year. The Twins have SOOOOO many bad players that when someone mediocre is called up we as fans are excited. Willingham for example had a career year last year, but had been a journeyman prior to that. He isn't that good, yet he's our cleanup hitter! I think as Twins fans we live in a bubble and forget how good some of the players around the league really are. The talent level at the MLB level in this organization right now is abysmal! The Twins have a guy at AA that has hit 31 homers (he's 20) and the Twins MLB HR leader has 14 dingers. Our 2B is just off the clubhouse lead and his name isn't Robinson Cano. Our lineup is every bit as terrible as out pitching.

This was probably just an omission, since you had him on your solid everyday player list, but I think Arcia has a chance to be a lot better next year.
Gleeman did a nice job of breaking down how he compares to the other 22 year old hitters to get significant AB's for the Twins, and the company he's in is limited to Bruno/Hrbek/Ortiz.

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 02:31 PM
So if the math clearly tells you that your likelihood of scoring is waaaaay higher in the not bunting scenario, over 10s of thousands of games, how can you reach a different conclusion?

rickyriolo
08-19-2013, 02:37 PM
The only everyday starter I see on the Twins is our catcher Joe Mauer. everyone else--not so much

mike wants wins
08-19-2013, 02:48 PM
I only get to listen to and read about games, since the Twins decided that even though our tax dollars pay for their new stadium, the games should not be on tv anymore......unless I pay for stations I don't want, only to watch more bad tv.....how bad is Arcia's defense?

Brock Beauchamp
08-19-2013, 02:59 PM
The stats don't take everything into account. The way a pitcher pitches with a one run lead is different then when they pitch with a three run lead. Stats can tell you what you want them to tell you. I'm not saying that they are 100% not useful but it would be foolish to play the game 100% by them.

I understand the math, I really do, it is just something that we will disagree on, sorry.

Actually, the stats have shown that pitchers don't pitch very differently with a three run lead.

There are hundreds of thousands of baseball games played. We have an enormous pool of data from which to pull and universally, they say "bunting is stupid".

AROG
08-19-2013, 03:01 PM
So if the math clearly tells you that your likelihood of scoring is waaaaay higher in the not bunting scenario, over 10s of thousands of games, how can you reach a different conclusion?

The stats don't play the game. The Math also says that there is nothing special about the 9th inning. It is super super clear that you shouldn't put any credence to a closer and that anyone can throw pitches in that inning and the outs will come. I understand them, I do, I wouldn't have a computer as my manager though. This is a game and anything can happen.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 03:05 PM
The stats don't play the game. The Math also says that there is nothing special about the 9th inning. It is super super clear that you shouldn't put any credence to a closer and that anyone can throw pitches in that inning and the outs will come. I understand them, I do, I wouldn't have a computer as my manager though. This is a game and anything can happen.

That is not true.
The stats show that the 9th inning matters plenty, which is why, all other things equal, it is given much more weight than say, the 3rd inning, when calculating WPA and leverage.

Win probability added - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_probability_added)

jokin
08-19-2013, 03:06 PM
I only get to listen to and read about games, since the Twins decided that even though our tax dollars pay for their new stadium, the games should not be on tv anymore......unless I pay for stations I don't want, only to watch more bad tv.....how bad is Arcia's defense?

Not good, but forgivable if he can average an OPS+ of 125 or better for his career- which I think is quite possible. But he really looks like a prime candidate for full-time DH as he gets older. (The Twins platooned Kubel in RF with a career OPS+ of 112, at this point in Arcia's career, he is slightly better in the field than Kubel- but they both have negative dWAR numbers).

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 03:10 PM
I think part of Arcia's defensive deficiencies are due the speed at which he moved through the system.
While I don't think he'll ever be a great defender, in fact he'll most likely continue to be a negative value, I think he is capable of improving to the point of being close enough to neutral dWAR for it to be a non issue.

jokin
08-19-2013, 03:11 PM
Actually, the stats have shown that pitchers don't pitch very differently with a three run lead.

There are hundreds of thousands of baseball games played. We have an enormous pool of data from which to pull and universally, they say "bunting is stupid".

Don't "they" actually say situational "bunting is stupid"? Good bunters looking to use it as a weapon to force a defense and pitcher to change their approach, get an easy on-base hit to start a rally, or as a way to break out of a slump are not stupid uses of the bunt.

Bunting that just creates an out, lowers the chance for a big inning- with the heightened chance to score, maybe, only one run- is what's stupid.

ThePuck
08-19-2013, 03:13 PM
Not good, but forgivable if he can average an OPS+ of 125 or better for his career- which I think is quite possible. But he really looks like a prime candidate for full-time DH as he gets older. (The Twins platooned Kubel in RF with a career OPS+ of 112, at this point in Arcia's career, he is slightly better in the field than Kubel- but they both have negative dWAR numbers).

IMO, I think as time goes on, we'll see Arcia is quite a bit worse than Kubel was on defense. Kubel took good routes and had a good arm, range was his issue. Arcia is like Willingham and Delmon Young bad out there.

drjim
08-19-2013, 03:24 PM
IMO, I think as time goes on, we'll see Arcia is quite a bit worse than Kubel was on defense. Kubel took good routes and had a good arm, range was his issue. Arcia is like Willingham and Delmon Young bad out there.

Arcia did play cf at one point so he might have some potential. I would argue hos struggles have come from limited reps and the fact he constantly switches between rf and lf. More reps and solidifying a position and he should be acceptable.

jokin
08-19-2013, 03:29 PM
IMO, I think as time goes on, we'll see Arcia is quite a bit worse than Kubel was on defense. Kubel took good routes and had a good arm, range was his issue. Arcia is like Willingham and Delmon Young bad out there.

I tend to agree, but Arcia is still young, lithe and quick enough to physically overcome some of his inexperience and IMO, inability, to play a decent, but not good, OF. As I stated, I think he is destined for DH as he ages and becomes more statue-like. For the next few years until Buxton, Hicks, and possibly Rosario, become ensconced in the OF, Arcia will probably be acceptable.

Brock Beauchamp
08-19-2013, 03:33 PM
Don't "they" actually say situational "bunting is stupid"? Good bunters looking to use it as a weapon to force a defense and pitcher to change their approach, get an easy on-base hit to start a rally, or as a way to break out of a slump are not stupid uses of the bunt.

Bunting that just creates an out, lowers the chance for a big inning- with the heightened chance to score, maybe, only one run- is what's stupid.

True. Bunting for a hit is a perfectly valid way to try to reach base.

AROG
08-19-2013, 03:45 PM
That is not true.
The stats show that the 9th inning matters plenty, which is why, all other things equal, it is given much more weight than say, the 3rd inning, when calculating WPA and leverage.

Win probability added - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_probability_added)

The Baseball Analysts: Empirical Analysis of Bunting (http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php)

ThePuck
08-19-2013, 03:47 PM
The Baseball Analysts: Empirical Analysis of Bunting (http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php)


The Sacrifice Bunt: The Real Rally Killer | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-sacrifice-bunt-the-real-rally-killer/)

AROG
08-19-2013, 03:49 PM
The Sacrifice Bunt: The Real Rally Killer | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-sacrifice-bunt-the-real-rally-killer/)

I read that article before I read the one I posted. Did you read the one I posted? It's quite long so I am assuming not.

ThePuck
08-19-2013, 03:54 PM
I read that article before I read the one I posted. Did you read the one I posted? It's quite long so I am assuming not.

I read it quite awhile ago...it's an older article

AROG
08-19-2013, 04:02 PM
I read it quite awhile ago...it's an older article

And you give it no credence what so ever? The fan graphs article is correct, there are less rallies as a result of the sac bunt, but the amount of innings scored in are less and fangraphs leaves that out. They refer to any run scored at all.

ThePuck
08-19-2013, 04:03 PM
And you give it no credence what so ever?

I wasn't smart enough to understand it :-)

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 04:12 PM
The Baseball Analysts: Empirical Analysis of Bunting (http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php)

What are you trying to argue with this link?
It seems to support our argument, not yours.
These tables seem to suggest that in SOME cases, you can increase your probability of scoring ONE run by bunting, but that overall you score LESS total runs by bunting.
I think many of us have conceded that in some cases a bunt is not terrible if you are playing for only one run.
The Twins should not have been playing for only one run in that situation.

nicksaviking
08-19-2013, 04:20 PM
The stats don't take everything into account. The way a pitcher pitches with a one run lead is different then when they pitch with a three run lead. Stats can tell you what you want them to tell you. I'm not saying that they are 100% not useful but it would be foolish to play the game 100% by them.


I think this is a quote taken directly from the anti-emperical Gardenhire himself. Strange you two don't get along considering how much you agree about the uselessness of advanced statistics.

A side note: I think everyone is missing a huge oversight. Gardy almost exclusively plays "old school" baseball. He often bunts, he pinch runs for his best hitter with two outs in a tie game, he doesn't shift his defense. The validity of bunting in this specific situation is funny because 90% of the time, Gardenhire likely sides with AROG who wants him gone because he didn't follow the rules this one time.

AROG
08-19-2013, 04:26 PM
What are you trying to argue with this link?
It seems to support our argument, not yours.
These tables seem to suggest that in SOME cases, you can increase your probability of scoring ONE run by bunting, but that overall you score LESS total runs by bunting.
I think many of us have conceded that in some cases a bunt is not terrible if you are playing for only one run.
The Twins should not have been playing for only one run in that situation.

While the first graph shows the typical ERT, the rest of the graphs work towards the ultimate goal of testing the merits of bunting. In situations where teams bunted, there is historical proof that the teams that used the sac bunt scored more runs that inning then teams that didn't, not just one run, but more total.

Also, it points out that you can't use blanket statements to situations in baseball. They average out everything, placing no data to who is coming up, who is pitching, anything situationally. Now, it doesn't mean that you should always bunt. But what it proves is that using ERT for every situation is flawed and cannot be used to empirically state a case for all. I know that you have said that one run game...

The truth is, if you are down by three, score one, then score one again, you are down by one. Had you not scored you are still down by three. Baseball is about taking advantage of every situation you have to score, if you just sit back and wait for the long ball or 5 hits in a row, you are the 2000's yankees or you lose.

I am not saying you should bunt in all situations, but to say that you should never bunt before the 8th inning or only in one run games is just not good baseball, statistically.

Siehbiscuit
08-19-2013, 04:31 PM
This was probably just an omission, since you had him on your solid everyday player list, but I think Arcia has a chance to be a lot better next year.
Gleeman did a nice job of breaking down how he compares to the other 22 year old hitters to get significant AB's for the Twins, and the company he's in is limited to Bruno/Hrbek/Ortiz.

Yes, Arcia should have been included in that sentence. The sad part is I was actually only thinking about the rotation. Kinda shows/supports how old and poor our offense really is though. I do see Dozier improving and possibly Florimon, but not to the point that warrants a starting MLB job.

Arcia is a building block kinda guy, even though this season hasn't been overwhelming. He needs to be a staple in our the lineup moving forward, because he will be a good player, not because he's the best the Twins have to choose from.

Building Blocks:
Arcia - potential David Ortiz type hitter (and fielder possibly)
Buxton - RH'd Ken Griffey Jr.
Sano - future star at 3B
Mauer - still at an elite level
Gibson - has hit a wall, but has the makings of a foundational guy
Meyer - #1 type pitcher
Rosario - the #2 hitter that Gardy has always dreamed of!!!! :)

Oxtung
08-19-2013, 09:09 PM
Nicksaviking & jokin, I think everyone can agree, or at least I agree, that the Twins have struggled to produce quality starting pitching for the past few years due to a variety of reasons. It is disappointing. But throwing AAAA pitchers into a rotation is not any better than signing a free agent. In fact if you go the AAAA route then you actually need to acquire even more AAAA pitchers to replace the ones in the opening day rotation as they inevitably fail. I wish we were in the position the White Sox are in. I wish we had 4 young pitchers with potential to populate the rotation but we don't and we won't for a couple of more years.

AROG- Stats tell you exactly what has happened. You can certainly argue with the methodology and the applicability of a particular stat but it's not "lying" to you. You mention that a computer wouldn't be your choice for manager, why not? Computers consistently beat Grand Master chess players. A couple of years ago the computer Watson defeated Ken Jennings, the best human Jeopardy player of all time, head to head and won $1 million. If a computer was specifically designed to manage a baseball game I would have no problems letting it make game time decisions. After all baseball is nothing but a game of probabilities which computers excel at.

To the bunting conversation. You dismiss ERT's as being too generic to give advice in specific situations and then point to slightly modified, and yet still generic, ERT's to prove your point. That seems illogical.

stringer bell
08-19-2013, 09:24 PM
Of the topics of discussion here so far: 1) Dozier may be more than a placeholder. I think his defense is elite, and he grades out average offensively. 2) Mauer could be part of the solution at first base next year. I wonder if he caught less if he would sustain more power. Maybe, maybe not. 3) Herrmann's skill set makes him a near-ideal 25th player. I don't think he's an alternate as a catcher, but he can be a backup plus an occasional corner OF, capable of pinch hitting. 4) I despise seeing Bernier, Thomas, Ramirez and to a lesser extent Doumit, and Morneau taking at bats away from guys who could help in the future. 6) Plouffe and Florimon seem to have earned starting spots to begin next year, no more than that.

stringer bell
08-19-2013, 09:26 PM
Sadly, the Twins' rotation looks to be as big a mess as last year. It doesn't look like anyone has earned having their name written in ink for the rotation next year. I suppose Correia is the closest to a lock in the rotation. That is sad.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 09:40 PM
Of the topics of discussion here so far: 1) Dozier may be more than a placeholder. I think his defense is elite, and he grades out average offensively. 2) Mauer could be part of the solution at first base next year. I wonder if he caught less if he would sustain more power. Maybe, maybe not. 3) Herrmann's skill set makes him a near-ideal 25th player. I don't think he's an alternate as a catcher, but he can be a backup plus an occasional corner OF, capable of pinch hitting. 4) I despise seeing Bernier, Thomas, and to a lesser extent Doumit, and Morneau taking at bats away from guys who could help in the future. 6) Plouffe and Florimon seem to have earned starting spots to begin next year, no more than that.

I disagree on #6. I think Plouffe needs a huge final 40 games of the season to save his job.
He's regressed in a big way, IMO. His OPS is now below .700, and if it finishes the season there, that is going to be tough to digest, given his really bad defense.
I hate to say it, because for some reason I've really always liked Plouffe, but the clock is ticking on his time here.

Oxtung
08-19-2013, 09:54 PM
6) Plouffe and Florimon seem to have earned starting spots to begin next year, no more than that.

I'm not sure that Florimon has earned anything. His line currently is .216/.273/.325/.598. That is terrible. If he continues to slump he could end up with an OPS in the .550 range.

I think that Danny Santana will be given a opportunity to compete in spring training with Florimon.

stringer bell
08-19-2013, 10:12 PM
I guess I haven't paid great attention the last couple weeks. Man, Florimon has slumped again since his wrist injury. I noticed that Plouffe had homered a couple of times, but overall he's still not hitting much. I don't see anyone in the organization except for Sano who could start for Plouffe. Santana probably needs some time in Rochester before he can be considered to replace Florimon. So, to rephrase, Plouffe and Florimon may have played just well enough to be "incumbents", but haven't established themselves as part of the Twins' future.

amjgt
08-19-2013, 11:34 PM
Dozier is 6th among MLB 2nd basemen in WAR.

WAR isn't a perfect metric, of course, but that earns him better than "plug him in until the next guy comes along" status on this team.

A mid-2014 lineup of:
Buxton
Mauer
Hammer (healthy)
Sano
Arcia
Kendys Morales - FA signing
(1B????)
Dozier
Florimon

Is one that a) has the chance to be potent, b) isn't filled with 1-year stopgaps, and c) has really good upside youth

Oxtung
08-20-2013, 12:06 AM
Dozier is 6th among MLB 2nd basemen in WAR.

WAR isn't a perfect metric, of course, but that earns him better than "plug him in until the next guy comes along" status on this team.

A mid-2014 lineup of:
Buxton
Mauer
Hammer (healthy)
Sano
Arcia
Kendys Morales - FA signing
(1B????)
Dozier
Florimon

Is one that a) has the chance to be potent, b) isn't filled with 1-year stopgaps, and c) has really good upside youth

Buxton won't be up by midseason and might not be at all next season. If the Twins are as terrible as they are this season, which seems likely, Willingham hopefully won't be on the team after midseason. I actually think he was a good signing and like his bat but he won't be a part of our future, might be able to return some prospects and certainly will open up needed AB's. As much as I would like it, I don't think the Twins will sign anyone as good as Morales. Florimon is slowly turning into the player we all feared he would be offensively. Mauer, Sano, Arcia and hopefully Dozier would sure be nice to see.

Slight nit-pick but I don't think the Twins would slot Sano, or any player just brought up, into the clean up role. Given your lineup I think it's more likely to be Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon. Or if they aren't comfortable with Buxton batting lead off immediately it might be Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, Doumit, Florimon.

stringer bell
08-20-2013, 06:09 AM
I expect that Buxton will start 2014 at New Britain. If (certainly a big "if") he dominates the AA level, there is a chance of mid-season promotion to Rochester and a tiny chance of promotion to the big leagues. I think that he is special enough to immediately bat lead-off, moreso than I think that Sano would start his career as a cleanup hitter.

Brock Beauchamp
08-20-2013, 08:06 AM
I read that article before I read the one I posted. Did you read the one I posted? It's quite long so I am assuming not.

An interesting article but it doesn't prove your point for a few reasons:

1. The data used in that article was from 1977-1992. That is... problematic for obvious reasons.

2. Even under the "best" of circumstances, the run expectancy for sacrifice bunts was marginally better than swinging away while swinging away held a commanding lead in most situations.

3. The author doesn't do a very good job of analyzing what percentage of sacrifice bunts are actually successful and admits that he can't pull sacrifice bunt statistics from older games at all (basically, he's guessing, which places the entire article in question).

4. You started this argument by saying Gardy should have called for a Dozier bunt. Brian Dozier is the second-best hitter on the team. The article clearly states that the only time a sacrifice bunt might break even or take a marginal lead in run expectancy is when you call for it when your worst hitters are at the plate.

AROG
08-20-2013, 08:30 AM
An interesting article but it doesn't prove your point for a few reasons:

1. The data used in that article was from 1977-1992. That is... problematic for obvious reasons.

2. Even under the "best" of circumstances, the run expectancy for sacrifice bunts was marginally better than swinging away while swinging away held a commanding lead in most situations.

3. The author doesn't do a very good job of analyzing what percentage of sacrifice bunts are actually successful and admits that he can't pull sacrifice bunt statistics from older games at all (basically, he's guessing, which places the entire article in question).

4. You started this argument by saying Gardy should have called for a Dozier bunt. Brian Dozier is the second-best hitter on the team. The article clearly states that the only time a sacrifice bunt might break even or take a marginal lead in run expectancy is when you call for it when your worst hitters are at the plate.

I appreciate the time you took to read the article. It was long. I think you misunderstood the part about the older games, he left them out of the table for the reason that he wouldn't just guess. In the final table there was only one situation where it wouldn't create more runs in the AL and that is by the 5 hitter, equal. He didn't use the clean up for obvious reasons, the never bunt. The time frame he used was because it is the only play by play data available. It is also useful because through it you can extrapolate what actually happened when a team bunted vs. not bunt.

Oxtung, my point was that stats don't tell everything, not that they lie. And if you are comfortable having a computer as a coach, that's fine too. I am not, you can get a picture of our game from stats but that isn't the whole game, unlike chess, the pieces in our game are people, they are not just numbers. That is why so many people ask about seeing the minor league players in person so that they have context to the stats we see.

The article wasn't written to say you should always bunt as much as to disprove the notion that bunting is always bad. Like I said before, I understand the math, I disagree with your interpretation of result. That doesn't make you wrong and me right, although it is obvious that we both think we are. We will disagree and I am ok with that.

amjgt
08-20-2013, 08:51 AM
Buxton won't be up by midseason and might not be at all next season. If the Twins are as terrible as they are this season, which seems likely, Willingham hopefully won't be on the team after midseason. I actually think he was a good signing and like his bat but he won't be a part of our future, might be able to return some prospects and certainly will open up needed AB's. As much as I would like it, I don't think the Twins will sign anyone as good as Morales. Florimon is slowly turning into the player we all feared he would be offensively. Mauer, Sano, Arcia and hopefully Dozier would sure be nice to see.

Slight nit-pick but I don't think the Twins would slot Sano, or any player just brought up, into the clean up role. Given your lineup I think it's more likely to be Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon. Or if they aren't comfortable with Buxton batting lead off immediately it might be Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, Doumit, Florimon.

I'm not totally clear on what Morales could expect to get as a FA. He is having a fine year, but nothing special. My mostly uneducated estimation is something in the neighborhood of 2/16, but looking at a relatively recent Mariners blog ( The Mariners Don?t Need To Extend Kendrys Morales | U.S.S. Mariner (http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/06/04/the-mariners-dont-need-to-extend-kendrys-morales/) ) they seem to thing that Seattle would make a qualifying offer (14 mil) in order to attach some draft pick compensation to him. That seems crazy for a most-of-the-time DH (occasional 1B) who is OPSing around .800 and is north of 30yo. Anything above 2/16 and I start to lose interest.

I agree with most of your thoughts on Willingham, but he's either going to return to near 2012 level and have trade value or look like this year and be worth nothing. Given the Twins luck, he will probably mash in April and May and tear up his wrist before we can trade him.

I disagree on Buxton. The Twins have shown an aggressive promotion approach with him. I can't see any scenario (baring injury) where he isn't starting the year next year in New Britain. From there, if he plays well, I don't think a mid-season call up is out of the question, especially given the existing CF and leadoff options in this team.

You're probably right on the line up construction. It was late and I was more concerned with getting the names in there in some semblance of a batting order than really drilling down on the nuances of the line up.

amjgt
08-20-2013, 08:58 AM
One last note on Morales....

He is almost a perfect comp to Willingham before we signed him.
Morales: Kendrys Morales Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moralke01.shtml)
Willingham: Josh Willingham Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml)

Edge to Willingham in power.
Edge to Morales in BA and OBP
Dead heat on OPS
Within 1 year of age - 30/31
Some injury history

One advantage on Willingham was that he was still viewed as a mostly everyday OF. Morales is mostly DHing at this point, but I'm not sure if that's by necessity (because of Smoak) or because he just isn't much of a fielder at this point.

diehardtwinsfan
08-20-2013, 02:59 PM
I disagree on #6. I think Plouffe needs a huge final 40 games of the season to save his job.
He's regressed in a big way, IMO. His OPS is now below .700, and if it finishes the season there, that is going to be tough to digest, given his really bad defense.
I hate to say it, because for some reason I've really always liked Plouffe, but the clock is ticking on his time here.

The key is next year... and not even all year. Plouffe will start at 3rd b/c there won't be other options (unless you think Romero is ready). Sano will likely be up mid year sometime assuming he mashes AAA pitching.

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 03:16 PM
The key is next year... and not even all year. Plouffe will start at 3rd b/c there won't be other options (unless you think Romero is ready). Sano will likely be up mid year sometime assuming he mashes AAA pitching.

Yeah, I keep hearing he'll get to start 2014 by default, but I'm not so sure of that.
He's ARB eligible this winter, so I could see them non tendering him, and just promoting or signing some AAAA placeholder for the league minimum until Sano is ready.

diehardtwinsfan
08-21-2013, 10:35 AM
Yeah, I keep hearing he'll get to start 2014 by default, but I'm not so sure of that.
He's ARB eligible this winter, so I could see them non tendering him, and just promoting or signing some AAAA placeholder for the league minimum until Sano is ready.

Plouffe is in his first year of arb. He's going to get a couple million. I don't think that's a reason why he'd be non-tendered... not yet at least.

Danchat
08-21-2013, 09:22 PM
Plouffe is in his first year of arb. He's going to get a couple million. I don't think that's a reason why he'd be non-tendered... not yet at least.

Plouffe will in all likelihood sign his first arbitration. If he has another mediocre season I'd say no to a 2nd ARB.

Mr. Brooks
08-21-2013, 09:25 PM
Plouffe will in all likelihood sign his first arbitration. If he has another mediocre season I'd say no to a 2nd ARB.

I don't know. I think he needs a huge last 1/4 of the season. He's taken a pretty big step back offensively, and his defense is still awful.
At some point its not about the money, it's about getting away from this habit of wasting roster spots with guys who just are not any good.

Kwak
08-21-2013, 09:48 PM
Plouffe is a lock to be signed next year. Given the Hicks disaster in CF there is no way the Twins will leave themself exposed to a rookie as their only option at 3B. The Twins aren't going to give up on him just yet anyway even if they did have plenty of other options at 3B.

Mr. Brooks
08-21-2013, 09:51 PM
Plouffe is a lock to be signed next year. Given the Hicks disaster in CF there is no way the Twins will leave themself exposed to a rookie as their only option at 3B. The Twins aren't going to give up on him just yet anyway even if they did have plenty of other options at 3B.

Fair enough, but let's not compare Hicks to Sano.
Whenever it is that Sano comes up, he will mash.

diehardtwinsfan
08-22-2013, 08:48 AM
Fair enough, but let's not compare Hicks to Sano.
Whenever it is that Sano comes up, he will mash.

People said that about Arcia too, and he ended up being sent down a bit. Sano will take some lumps, and if his AA stint is any indication, he's likely going to have to adjust... That said, he's shown (thus far) that he can. I'm not worried about Sano, but these types of expectations tends to lead to little patience when it is often needed.