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Twins Fan From Afar
08-16-2013, 06:49 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2232-Trevor-May-Still-Hopeful

Badsmerf
08-16-2013, 07:29 AM
I hope nobody is ready to give up on May in the rotation. If nothing else, he's shown progress this season. He has the stuff to make it as a starter and I hope the Twins are showing him the right things to groom him. Progress could be better, but I'd give him a while longer before pulling him from the rotation.

John Bonnes
08-16-2013, 07:55 AM
Sure, Gibson was delayed as a result of Tommy John surgery and recovery, but my point is only that May isn't "old," even if he is repeating AA.

A question for the more sabrmetric set - does age really matter much for pitchers? Does it matter much is a guy debuts in MLB as a 24-year-old or a 26-year-old if he's a pitcher? An studies on this?

mike wants wins
08-16-2013, 07:59 AM
Not sure John, but if people think signing a 31 year old is a bad idea, that would suggest starting earlier would be better.....

I doubt anyone has given up on him, but it is a bummer he has not progressed as much as we all thought he might this year. He clearly has some very good to great stuff, I remain hopeful.

Steve Penz
08-16-2013, 08:08 AM
So it seems that the hits/9 is the issue. Thank you for the breakdown of the hits from last night. What is being said are the overall issues on that stat? Is his fastball straight? Is it location? It would be interesting to hear opinions on this because if he is strong enough to throw in the 90s after he passes 100 pitches, changes speeds, establishes first-pitch strikes (something Gibson does not do!), and strikes out so many people, one would think he would have more success. Thanks for the article.

Mr. Brooks
08-16-2013, 09:22 AM
I'm not giving up on him. Certainly he has a high ceiling. Unfortunately he also has a low floor.
I just don't see a 3rd pitch needed to be a starter.
He's got a great fastball, and an ok changeup, but at what age do you stop waiting for that 3rd pitch to develop and decide it's best to move him to the bullpen?
It's nice that he only walked 1 last night, but for the season the walks have still been a pretty big issue.

drjim
08-16-2013, 09:44 AM
I'm not giving up on him. Certainly he has a high ceiling. Unfortunately he also has a low floor.
I just don't see a 3rd pitch needed to be a starter.
He's got a great fastball, and an ok changeup, but at what age do you stop waiting for that 3rd pitch to develop and decide it's best to move him to the bullpen?
It's nice that he only walked 1 last night, but for the season the walks have still been a pretty big issue.

I would agree with this. I personally would give him another 4 months before moving to the pen. He does have the skillset to be a potential closer so there is something to fall back upon.

DJL44
08-16-2013, 09:55 AM
I'm not giving up on him. Certainly he has a high ceiling. Unfortunately he also has a low floor.
I just don't see a 3rd pitch needed to be a starter.
He's got a great fastball, and an ok changeup, but at what age do you stop waiting for that 3rd pitch to develop and decide it's best to move him to the bullpen?.

Even the bullpen will be tough if he doesn't have a breaking ball. Changing speeds is good but you need movement to succeed in the majors.

Steve Penz
08-16-2013, 09:58 AM
I'm not giving up on him. Certainly he has a high ceiling. Unfortunately he also has a low floor.
I just don't see a 3rd pitch needed to be a starter.
He's got a great fastball, and an ok changeup, but at what age do you stop waiting for that 3rd pitch to develop and decide it's best to move him to the bullpen?
It's nice that he only walked 1 last night, but for the season the walks have still been a pretty big issue.

The closer idea seems exciting. If he can throw in the low 90s after 100 pitches then how hard could he throw for 1 inning? That said, it is still really early. Closers can be found; they need to continue working the path to being and MLB starting pitcher. Even if it took a few years, I think it would be worth it.

mike wants wins
08-16-2013, 10:34 AM
I'd give him all of next year to be a starter. If not, then I'd probably go to high leverage reliever.

Mr. Brooks
08-16-2013, 10:40 AM
I'd give him all of next year to be a starter. If not, then I'd probably go to high leverage reliever.

That sounds like a reasonable timeline to me.

diehardtwinsfan
08-16-2013, 10:57 AM
I'd probably give him till he runs out of options to be a starter. It's not hard to stash a guy in the pen and develop him. The potential of a front line ace though is well worth the patience.

mike wants wins
08-16-2013, 11:00 AM
I'd probably give him till he runs out of options to be a starter. It's not hard to stash a guy in the pen and develop him. The potential of a front line ace though is well worth the patience.

I don't know....did they wait until Nathan and Perkins were out of options? At some point, you need to get years of value from a player.....and then trade him just before he loses value....

TheLeviathan
08-16-2013, 11:44 AM
I don't know....did they wait until Nathan and Perkins were out of options? At some point, you need to get years of value from a player.....and then trade him just before he loses value....

I think this is an important point. May strikes me as one of the guys most likely to be dealt to augment the next wave with established talent. So is he more valuable as a high risk, struggling starter or a low risk, lights out reliever in AAA?

i think I know my vote, but I give him another year with our coaches first.

Steve Penz
08-16-2013, 12:21 PM
These are interesting comments. I have just done a search and did not find the data on May's contract. Does anybody have the detail? I want to know how much time the Twins have left before he is out of options. Thank you.

Mr. Brooks
08-16-2013, 12:36 PM
These are interesting comments. I have just done a search and did not find the data on May's contract. Does anybody have the detail? I want to know how much time the Twins have left before he is out of options. Thank you.

I believe this is May's first season on the 40 man roster.
That means the soonest that we would have to pass him through waivers would be coming out of spring training in 2016.

There are exceptions, but in general you have a maximum of 8 seasons for HS draft picks, and 7 seasons for college draft picks before they have to be exposed to waivers.

diehardtwinsfan
08-16-2013, 01:15 PM
I don't know....did they wait until Nathan and Perkins were out of options? At some point, you need to get years of value from a player.....and then trade him just before he loses value....

Not sure Nathan applies. He was a trade from SF and was already a reliever at that point. As for Perk, I'm not sure. He got bounced around quite a bit when he first came up. I don't remember if he was out... Of note, he also miserably failed as a starter, something May has not yet done. His ERA isn't spectacular, but the peripherals are trending in the right direction.. I'd expect he starts in AAA next year as as stater.

jdotmcmahon
08-16-2013, 01:50 PM
A question for the more sabrmetric set - does age really matter much for pitchers? Does it matter much is a guy debuts in MLB as a 24-year-old or a 26-year-old if he's a pitcher? An studies on this?

Primary concern regarding debut age of pitchers is velocity. Research done by Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman at FG suggests that velo peaks in early 20s and starts steadily declining at age 26, with decline increasingly steep into 30s. Obviously velocity isn't everything, but it's pretty significant for most pitchers. Given that May is a guy that relies on his fastball, the sooner he is up the better.

orangevening
08-16-2013, 02:25 PM
Even the bullpen will be tough if he doesn't have a breaking ball. Changing speeds is good but you need movement to succeed in the majors.

Huh? I heard (it is even described as "Nice" in the article) that May's curveball is at least his 2nd if not best pitch. I'm wondering if he needs a 4th pitch- like a Casey Fien-like cutter for example.

A little off subject: is anyone concerned with our coaches in New Britian?

raindog
08-16-2013, 03:38 PM
I wouldn't even consider moving him to the pen in the near future. The Twins need starting pitching so bad, it would be a huge disappointment if May fails. I would start him in AAA, and give him two years to prove himself.

Just wanted to mention, his BABIP is .342 on the year, a good bit higher than previous years. Might be why he's given up so many hits.

Willihammer
08-16-2013, 03:51 PM
Huh? I heard (it is even described as "Nice" in the article) that May's curveball is at least his 2nd if not best pitch. I'm wondering if he needs a 4th pitch- like a Casey Fien-like cutter for example.

A little off subject: is anyone concerned with our coaches in New Britian?

I've never watched May pitch but so far he is putting up reverse-platoon splits. Which suggests to me his changeup is getting lefties out but the breaking ball isn't working as well against same-handed batters.

Trevor May at Minor League Central (http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=543507&split=3000)

LaBombo
08-16-2013, 03:56 PM
A question for the more sabrmetric set - does age really matter much for pitchers? Does it matter much is a guy debuts in MLB as a 24-year-old or a 26-year-old if he's a pitcher? An studies on this?
That would be an interesting read. It seems to me that a part of what drives the debut age of pitchers is the relatively high percentage of them who don't turn pro until after at least a couple of years of college.

The velocity drop-off study raises a good point, but that drop doesn't seem to correlate strongly to worsening effectiveness until after 30. There's certainly a case to be made that a GM would be more reluctant to sign the 26 year old debut to a long-term deal after two seasons just to avoid the likely post-29 velocity drops alone.

Just a hunch, but it could be that the 24-year-old rookies will tend to fair better than 26-year-olds in a given slice of the decline curve simply because their earlier debuts are largely due to a greater level of talent.

Rosterman
08-16-2013, 04:06 PM
Perkins was actually waived off the 40-man and no one claimed him before he came back as a relief pitcher. Sometimes pitchers themselves get in a mindset and want to stay a starter (perhaps because of higher salary opportunities) yet don't realize until too late that a job in the majors is...a job in the majors. Even remember hearing Swarzak blow some smoke about wanting to start again. Fst Eddie was a starter. LaTroy was a starter (and he is showing he is still not a closer -- stay setip, LaTroy). Aggie was a starter wannabee. Maybe Diamond will find his real life in the bullpen.

drjim
08-16-2013, 04:14 PM
Perkins was actually waived off the 40-man and no one claimed him before he came back as a relief pitcher. Sometimes pitchers themselves get in a mindset and want to stay a starter (perhaps because of higher salary opportunities) yet don't realize until too late that a job in the majors is...a job in the majors. Even remember hearing Swarzak blow some smoke about wanting to start again. Fst Eddie was a starter. LaTroy was a starter (and he is showing he is still not a closer -- stay setip, LaTroy). Aggie was a starter wannabee. Maybe Diamond will find his real life in the bullpen.

Perkins was never taken off the 40 man but he was ran out as a starter until he ran out of options.

He very nearly didn't make the roster out of spring training when he was out of options. Then he would have been dfaed.

TheLeviathan
08-16-2013, 05:27 PM
I wouldn't even consider moving him to the pen in the near future. The Twins need starting pitching so bad, it would be a huge disappointment if May fails. I would start him in AAA, and give him two years to prove himself.

Just wanted to mention, his BABIP is .342 on the year, a good bit higher than previous years. Might be why he's given up so many hits.

May could have value as a reliever in trade bait for a starter, if I was a betting man I think that's the future I would predict.

At some point it's likely we will have to deal specs to augment our rotation.

Mr. Brooks
08-16-2013, 06:00 PM
Huh? I heard (it is even described as "Nice" in the article) that May's curveball is at least his 2nd if not best pitch. I'm wondering if he needs a 4th pitch- like a Casey Fien-like cutter for example.

A little off subject: is anyone concerned with our coaches in New Britian?

First, May's best pitch, by a mile is his fastball.

Second, I believe the author was describing how it looked in that game, not as a whole:

"Tonight, though, was not a bad outing, despite what the box score will tell you. May started off the game hitting 92-94 on his fastball, 83ish with the change-up, and upper 70s or lower 80s with a nice curve."

Also, I don't believe the author is a scout, ( I apologize if he is) everything I've read from scouts and baseball people is that he doesn't have a 3rd pitch right now.

Jonathan Mayo grades his curve (and his slider, though I believe they have dumped the slider completely) as currently being well below average, with a ceiling of below average, and has this to say about them:

"His fastball reaches 95 mph, with plenty of sink, and he has no trouble maintaining velocity deep into his starts. His best secondary offering now is his changeup and it has the chance to be an above-average pitch. May throws both a curve and slider, but both are inconsistent and are fringy."

raindog
08-16-2013, 06:40 PM
May could have value as a reliever in trade bait for a starter, if I was a betting man I think that's the future I would predict.

At some point it's likely we will have to deal specs to augment our rotation.
I just think that's jumping too far ahead. It seems more likely that he develops into a decent SP, than him developing into a dominant reliever, and then being traded for a decent starter.

TheLeviathan
08-16-2013, 09:09 PM
I just think that's jumping too far ahead. It seems more likely that he develops into a decent SP, than him developing into a dominant reliever, and then being traded for a decent starter.

Maybe, but he has some very big hurdles to overcome. His profile screams a guy that will make a very good reliever, so in some ways I disagree that he has a low-floor.

Next year is going to be a very big year for what his future holds, that's for sure.

diehardtwinsfan
08-16-2013, 09:13 PM
Fastball changeup doesn't strike me as a very good reliever. That's basically Matt Capps (though admittedly he had some good years)... I hope May is better than that. His curve doesn't have to be great... just good enough to complement the fastball.

Personally, I think he's been working on control, and it shows. The problem is that other parts of his game slip. I'm not worried yet, b/c as the control improves and becomes innate, he can start bringing those other parts back.

Twins Fan From Afar
08-16-2013, 10:31 PM
I just think that's jumping too far ahead. It seems more likely that he develops into a decent SP, than him developing into a dominant reliever, and then being traded for a decent starter.

No apologies necessary, I'm not a scout.
That being said, his curve and change were good last night -- good enough, anyway, to keep the hitters off balance. It was May's fastball that got hit.

TheLeviathan
08-16-2013, 10:43 PM
Fastball changeup doesn't strike me as a very good reliever. .

There is a very long list of relievers who have been very successful with a limited repertoire. As long as those two pitches are outstanding, he's got a very good chance.

The expanded repertoire is more valuable as a starter IMO.

drjim
08-17-2013, 10:38 AM
There is a very long list of relievers who have been very successful with a limited repertoire. As long as those two pitches are outstanding, he's got a very good chance.

The expanded repertoire is more valuable as a starter IMO.

A good fastball and decent second pitch can suceed as a reliever. There are relievers other than Capps who have succeeded with fastball/change.

Starters need three offerings or they struggle to turn an order three times.

diehardtwinsfan
08-17-2013, 02:04 PM
I guess my point is that usually the decent second pitch is a curve or slider. Not a change.

Jim H
08-24-2013, 05:05 PM
I guess my point is that usually the decent second pitch is a curve or slider. Not a change.


This is probably true. Still, there are a number of relievers and even some closers, who were primarily fastball-changeup pitchers. I can even think of a starter or two were basically fastball-changeup pitchers. Johan Santana comes to mind.