PDA

View Full Version : Better than we thought?



Brandon
08-14-2013, 09:02 AM
The Twins currently have a .453 win % which puts them on track for 75 wins this season. If the Twins win 74-78 games this year, I think that would put Gardenhire in a pretty good spot to maintain his job as manager seeing how bad the rotation is and the fact that the lineup underperformed. With how the Twins have performed lately will Gardenhire keep his job? I think so.

ThePuck
08-14-2013, 09:05 AM
I'm not sure the talent is any better than we thought, but the record sure is...at least IMO. I think Gardy and his coaching staff have to get some credit for that if they end up winning that many games.

Halsey Hall
08-14-2013, 09:07 AM
I have a feeling Gardy will be back next year. And I think we'll end up with 71 wins, better than most expected.

In my opinion, Gardy hasn't done to bad this year, compared to some other years he had me beside myself.

Brock Beauchamp
08-14-2013, 09:52 AM
Going into the season, I thought they'd end up in the 72-75 win range. Dunno if I publicly predicted that (I tend to avoid prediction threads) but it appears that's where they'll end up if for no other reason than it's really, really hard to lose 90+ games three seasons in a row when you have guys like Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, etc. on the roster.

And that's the reason I wanted to see Ryan pick up some legit free agents this offseason. If the Twins had Dempster right now and got a lucky break or two with Plouffe, Dozier, Arcia, Hicks, etc., they'd be borderline "contenders".

Winston Smith
08-14-2013, 10:19 AM
These last 3 years have been great lets keep doing the same thing.

ThePuck
08-14-2013, 10:33 AM
These last 3 years have been great lets keep doing the same thing.

Yup...not winning but having a great farm system is what every team should aspire too. :-)

nicksaviking
08-14-2013, 10:46 AM
I have assumed Gardy would be back ever since Ryan put himself between a rock and a hard place and publicly said the losing isn't on Gardenhire.

E. Andrew
08-14-2013, 10:48 AM
Yeah I think we are a little better than it seems, and if I were Gardy, I would try to beat the current pace in September, so when the old year-end review comes around he looks even a little better. Deservedly, I think we've leaned a little more toward getting a look at guys than winning at all costs, if I were him, I'd tilt the other way from here on out. If I were him.

mike wants wins
08-14-2013, 10:51 AM
This is pretty much what the board predicted.....not sure they are "better than expected".

Gardy isn't going anywhere, these are the Twins afterall.

StormJH1
08-14-2013, 10:55 AM
I honestly don't think of this team as being any better than the 2011 or 2012 teams at this point in the season. Every time I glance at the standings, I'm amazed that we're only 9 games under .500. They have a 27-28 record at home.

Still, that's pretty deceptive, IMO. It probably doesn't hurt that the AL added a total bottom-feeder (Houston), that Chicago has been even more terrible, and that Toronto decided to become the Florida Marlins North. Also, Twins teams with losing records tend to get even worse at the end of the season, so this may not be the best time to judge.

cmathewson
08-14-2013, 10:58 AM
The team has had three really bad 10-game stretches. Obviously, those count. But all we would need to do next year to be a .500 team is to go .500 in those bad stretches. That's a matter of a better starter or two. That's why I'm much more confident at this time this year than at this time last year.

Willihammer
08-14-2013, 11:34 AM
The team has had three really bad 10-game stretches. Obviously, those count. But all we would need to do next year to be a .500 team is to go .500 in those bad stretches. That's a matter of a better starter or two. That's why I'm much more confident at this time this year than at this time last year.

I hear Bronson Arroyo is looking to get out of Cinci

ThePuck
08-14-2013, 11:38 AM
This is pretty much what the board predicted.....not sure they are "better than expected".

Gardy isn't going anywhere, these are the Twins afterall.

I predicted 65-97...so record-wise, I said they were better than expected. I don't think the talent is better than expected at all.

Dave T
08-14-2013, 11:39 AM
There is a pretty big gap between what the Twins have for starting pitchers and what they need in order to contend. You can see the potential though. Defensively, the Twins are capable of playing at a very high level, especially with Hicks in CF. The offense is better with Willingham back, but it's still below average. Help is on the way for the offense, but not for the pitching staff.

mnfireman
08-14-2013, 12:05 PM
This team has shown improvements (defense, bullpen), no change (starting pitching), and disappointment (offense - was expected to improve) over last years team. Overall the team is better but this group is years (as in Sano, Buxton, Mays, Meyer, and the low level arms) away from competing, still. I think the team will be young enough and cheap enough in a couple years that they should spend big next off-season to get a good product out there, then turn it over to the kids and dominate into the next decade.

ThePuck
08-14-2013, 12:13 PM
I can't agree about the defense improving...while the middle IF has clearly turned gold glove caliber, the OF is as bad as it can be and 3B is still a mess. Going by defensive efficiency, we're 28th in the majors. We were 18th at season's end last year.

mike wants wins
08-14-2013, 12:17 PM
The Twins are pretty close to median in terms of runs allowed.....they aren't even close to median in runs scored. They are much closer to the leader in runs allowed than runs scored. I don't think people realize just how bad the offense is this year. Even adding 1 good starter would really help this team. More importantly, they can't have the Hicks / Floriman / Morneau /Plouffe / Doumit tandem in the lineup every day and expect to score runs.

Sssuperdave
08-14-2013, 12:20 PM
In my opinion, whether Gardy keeps his job or not should already be decided and shouldn't have much to do with whether the team wins 65 games or 75 games this year. The better question is who do you want coaching the upcoming wave of prospects? You've got Sano, Rosario, Buxton, and Meyer with debuts in the next year or two, and Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson with a taste of the bigs already. What head coach is going to help these 7 players reach their potential? Is it Gardy or someone else? I don't see how winning a few more games than expected this year changes the answer to this question.

Full disclosure - this isn't really my idea, I'm pretty much ripping it off from Phil Mackey.

Jdosen
08-14-2013, 12:25 PM
The "Twins might be a little better than we thought" thing is now happening for the 3rd time this year. The first 2 times, the team fell flat on its face. It's nice that we have been able to beat up on the White Sox and Astros over the past 10 days, but I don't think it means very much as far as how good of a team this is. I don't think we get to 75 wins--65 seems more likely to me.

EDIT: I now notice the Twins have 53 wins, which is to say 65 would be a complete implosion. I should say 70 wins to me is more likely than 75 however.

PseudoSABR
08-14-2013, 12:27 PM
They are better than we feared. They are back to playing watchable baseball, after a very dark time in July.

ThePuck
08-14-2013, 12:31 PM
The "Twins might be a little better than we thought" thing is now happening for the 3rd time this year. The first 2 times, the team fell flat on its face. It's nice that we have been able to beat up on the White Sox and Astros over the past 10 days, but I don't think it means very much as far as how good of a team this is. I don't think we get to 75 wins--65 seems more likely to me.

EDIT: I now notice the Twins have 53 wins, which is to say 65 would be a complete implosion. I should say 70 wins to me is more likely than 75 however.

Well, we had 50 wins last year after 117 games played...ended up with 66. In 2011, we had 52 wins after 117 games and ended with 63. Complete implosion isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Mike Frasier Law
08-14-2013, 12:41 PM
The Twins are pretty close to median in terms of runs allowed.....they aren't even close to median in runs scored. They are much closer to the leader in runs allowed than runs scored. I don't think people realize just how bad the offense is this year. Even adding 1 good starter would really help this team. More importantly, they can't have the Hicks / Floriman / Morneau /Plouffe / Doumit tandem in the lineup every day and expect to score runs.

The twins have scored 3.98 runs per game and have allowed 4.49 runs per game. In the AL, only the White Sox, Astros, and Yankees(!!) have scored fewer per game, and only the Astros, Blue Jays, Angels, and Mariners have allowed more runs per game. It's not pretty.

Here's my reasons to hope: we will score more runs next year because Arcia, Hicks, and whomever is playing 1B and 3B will be much improved (how could they not?). We will allow fewer runs because our infield defense should remain as good as it has been, and our outfield defense has nowhere to go but up. And, of course, our pitching could not be worse than it is.

mike wants wins
08-14-2013, 12:46 PM
mhfesq....hope you are right, but we all thought there was no way the starting pitching could be worse this year than last....nice 3rd post, btw.

Winston Smith
08-14-2013, 12:50 PM
Where do you set the bar? Contending? Winning in the playoffs? World Series win?

The last 10 years, 2003-2012:
Twins, 2-15 in the playoffs zero series wins.
Clev., 6-5, 1 series win.
Chicago, 14-4, 3 series wins, a world champ.
Det., 20-17, 5 series wins 2 trips to the world series.
Royals; great farm system.

What do you want? After the end of this year it will be 9 full seasons since they won A playoff game, 9 years! Is that good enough?
Terry Ryan has been the GM for 16 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?

howieramone
08-14-2013, 12:55 PM
Where do you set the bar? Contending? Winning in the playoffs? World Series win?

The last 10 years, 2003-2012:
Twins, 2-15 in the playoffs zero series wins.
Clev., 6-5, 1 series win.
Chicago, 14-4, 3 series wins, a world champ.
Det., 20-17, 5 series wins 2 trips to the world series.
Royals; great farm system.

What do you want? After the end of this year it will be 9 full seasons since they won A playoff game, 9 years! Is that good enough?
Terry Ryan has been the GM for 16 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?Yes, Ryan is good enough.

Mike Frasier Law
08-14-2013, 12:59 PM
mhfesq....hope you are right, but we all thought there was no way the starting pitching could be worse this year than last....nice 3rd post, btw.

When I read your post, I thought you had to be wrong about the offense and run prevention, so I had to look it up.

Brock Beauchamp
08-14-2013, 01:08 PM
Terry Ryan has been the GM for 16 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?

Billy Beane has been the GM for 15 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?

What I care about is getting to the playoffs. A couple of those years, I thought the Twins should have pushed a little harder to shore up problem areas but a large part of those series losses were just **** luck. Good players playing badly in key moments.

Baseball is a frustrating sport in small doses.

Brandon
08-14-2013, 01:19 PM
Well, we had 50 wins last year after 117 games played...ended up with 66. In 2011, we had 52 wins after 117 games and ended with 63. Complete implosion isn't out of the realm of possibility.

the 75 wins i had down was taking their current .453 win percentage times 162 = 74.75 wins rounding to 75 wins on the season. so if they play at their current levels then 75 is possible and that was my point. 75 is better than where we thought we would end up a few weeks ago thus making it possible for the Twins to say why whould we let Gardenhire go? he overacheived with this team.

on another note, i noticed through the years that the better the bullpen the more a team oveerachieves. that would make for an interesting study on the win pythagorean.

ThePuck
08-14-2013, 01:39 PM
the 75 wins i had down was taking their current .453 win percentage times 162 = 74.75 wins rounding to 75 wins on the season. so if they play at their current levels then 75 is possible and that was my point. 75 is better than where we thought we would end up a few weeks ago thus making it possible for the Twins to say why whould we let Gardenhire go? he overacheived with this team.

on another note, i noticed through the years that the better the bullpen the more a team overachieves. that would make for an interesting study on the win pythagorean.

I understood your math from the beginning, but perhaps you should read the post I was responding to carefully, focus on the 'edit' part of his post, and then read mine again. As far as your question, I already answered it in one of the earlier posts on this thread.

Pius Jefferson
08-14-2013, 03:45 PM
I'd have much less of a problem with keeping Gardenhire if the Twins hire a new pitching coach from outside the organization.

Major Leauge Ready
08-14-2013, 04:22 PM
I have hired hundreds of people and fired my fair share but I just can't come close to a qualified opinion on Rick Anderson's abilities without much closer examination. In other words, being able to observe him directly. Even if I did, it would still be difficult because I don't have the requisite years of professional baseball experience. Anyone who thinks they can make a qualified decision on antecdotal evidence definitely does not possess the leadship skills to be making firing decisions.

Major Leauge Ready
08-14-2013, 05:07 PM
I don’t think wins and losses is probably the best way to judge this season. The questions is wheter or not the team is positioned to be improved in a sustainable way.

On the plus side …

Gibson should be a boost to the starting pitching staff
Deduno looks like he will be a decent middle of the rotation starter
The bullpen looks very solid
Dozier and Florimon have greatly improved the defense up the middle.
Dozier looks as if he has developed offensively and can sustain it.
Arcia looks promising.
Hick’s defense is good and we have reason to believe he will get better.
Dozier is a reasonable lead-off option until a better option arrives.
Mauer has been Mauer and will likely remain Mauer.
Andrew Albers might just be a reliable middle to back of the rotation starter.

On the down side …

Diamond who was supposed to be reliable is anything but
Worley is a big question mark
Meyer and May are still big question marks
The free agent market looks worst than last year and based on the performance of last year’s FAs, free agency is not the answer.
We have a hole at 1B
Parmalee has not performed and we need to move Willingham to DH

Net

We will likely be better defensively.
Improved offense will come down to Hick’s and Arcia living up to their potential.
Dozier being the player we have seen since June 1st
Willingham bouncing back reasonably well.
We might be able to pick-up a FA 1B that would improve the team.

Are we a better team defined in terms of will we be better next year comes down to the following. Here is my Top 10 list.

Will Gibson be the solid #2 we hope.
Will Deduno be able to perform at a level similar to this year.
Will Albers be the Diamond of 2012?
Will Diamond be the Diamond of 2012?
Will they add a Phil Hughes or better?
Will Meyers or Pinto contribute in the 2nd half of 2014?
Will Hick’s adjust to the ML jump as he did to the other levels?
Will Arcia realize his considerable potential?
Will Parmalee or Colabello surprise us?
Will they upgrade 1B through free agency?

Lots of Ifs. The team could actually be a lot better in 2014 or the same mediocre stuff we have been watching. The best case scenario would be quite a bit better. I would like to hear what you guys think about the Top 10 “ifs”.

howieramone
08-14-2013, 05:15 PM
Major League Ready, I think you're very close. Good post!

TheLeviathan
08-14-2013, 05:38 PM
Given that this team is not very good at anything but relief pitching, it's not much to build on. I think Gardy has done a pretty damn good job this year, but being bad at starting pitching and offense is not much to be happy about. I don't see us any closer to contending....Arcia, Dozier, Deduno, bullpen have stepped up but Diamond, Worley, Plouffe, Hicks, Parmelee have stepped back. Feels like wheels spinning to a lucky record.

benchwarmerjim
08-14-2013, 06:54 PM
whether Gardy resigns or is not offered a contract is out of my control so I tend to not think about it too much. BUT, I do watch most every game still and I am just happy that this team still plays baseball. They may not be good at it sometimes, but it seems like the team hasnt quit. I think that kind of stuff primarily falls under the manager role.

IdahoPilgrim
08-14-2013, 07:32 PM
What I care about is getting to the playoffs. A couple of those years, I thought the Twins should have pushed a little harder to shore up problem areas but a large part of those series losses were just **** luck. Good players playing badly in key moments.



This.

Over the past 18 years, over half of the eventual world series winners ended the regular season with only the 4th best or lower regular season record. Once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen.

1st best record: 3
2nd: 2
3rd: 3
4th: 3
5th: 2
6th: 1
7th: 1
8th: 1
9th: 1
13th: 1

John Bonnes
08-14-2013, 09:16 PM
I think there is almost no chance that Gardenhire is fired this year. I'm not sure the record is that important - Ryan knows what he stuck Gardy and his staff with this year. But he didn't implode, nor did the team. I've always thought the attention towards Gardy possibly being dismissed was overstated. Ryan has shown he has plenty of patience if he believes in someone.

drjim
08-14-2013, 09:20 PM
I think there is almost no chance that Gardenhire is fired this year. I'm not sure the record is that important - Ryan knows what he stuck Gardy and his staff with this year. But he didn't implode, nor did the team. I've always thought the attention towards Gardy possibly being dismissed was overstated. Ryan has shown he has plenty of patience if he believes in someone.

I truly think it comes down to how ruthless Jim Pohlad is as an owner. After three bad seasons in a row it will be hard to sell Gardy/Andy coming back for another one. This is a bottom line issue.

clutterheart
08-14-2013, 09:35 PM
The team has had three really bad 10-game stretches. Obviously, those count. But all we would need to do next year to be a .500 team is to go .500 in those bad stretches. That's a matter of a better starter or two. That's why I'm much more confident at this time this year than at this time last year.

I dunno

But their pitching staff is pretty much the worst in baseball. I will have no confidence the team will be better until they shore this up. But I see no reason that Gardy should be fired, because the fault lies sqaurly on Ryan.

USAFChief
08-15-2013, 12:26 AM
I'll be disappointed if Gardy is brought back, and a bit surprised. It's time for change in this organization, and the logical place to start is with a new manager.

howieramone
08-15-2013, 01:00 AM
I'll be disappointed if Gardy is brought back, and a bit surprised. It's time for change in this organization, and the logical place to start is with a new manager.Chief, this is exactly the wrong time to makes changes. The danger in rebuilding is that it may never end. See Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Teams get 3 years into a 5 year plan and then panic. Ryan has many of the pieces in place and will gladly return to retirement when the job is done. Gardy's challenge will be is he the one who can take us deep into the play-offs.

beckmt
08-15-2013, 02:01 AM
I believe that if Poland tells Ryan to fire Gardy, Ryan will retire again and then Gardy will be fired. Will that be any better, probably not. Next year will be another small increment year unless 2 of the upper FA pitchers are signed. 2015 is the first realistic year Twins may be .500 with addition of FA pitchers. My main reason for believing they will sign the pitchers is money. Twins could be looking at an 80% retention rate of season ticket holders unless some excitement is generated. Looking at about the same starting staff will not do it.

ThePuck
08-15-2013, 07:41 AM
Gardy's challenge will be is he the one who can take us deep into the play-offs.

Don't we have this question already figured out?