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StormJH1
08-13-2013, 10:12 AM
http://www.rotoworld.com/images/headshots/MLB/3602.jpg
Peter Gammons of MLB Network reports that Justin Morneau has been placed on waivers.

This is standard procedure in August, but Morneau could draw interest from contenders. The impending free agent has seven homers over his last 15 games. We should know more about his status later this week.

(From Rotoworld)

---

Standard procedure, but it sets a timetable for what we thought could potentially happen this month. Timing is good with his recent power surge.

Oldgoat_MN
08-13-2013, 10:23 AM
This should be interesting...

If Justin can go to a contender and the Twins can finish the year with Colabello and Parmelee at 1B maybe they could learn something.

And wouldn't it be sweet to see Justin get a ring?

cmathewson
08-13-2013, 10:33 AM
He had such a dismal July that any trade before the deadline became all but impossible without eating much of his salary. But a hot August might entice enough interest to garner a real prospect or competitive balance pick. And if it's positioned as giving him an opportunity for a ring, it might actually be a net positive for resigning him to a "hometown discount" after the season.

mike wants wins
08-13-2013, 10:35 AM
I wish he could get a ring, one of my favorite Twins ever.

ThePuck
08-13-2013, 10:36 AM
I wish he could get a ring, one of my favorite Twins ever.


he's my 2nd favorite all time Twin

twinsnorth49
08-13-2013, 10:37 AM
he's my 2nd favorite all time Twin

Number one for me

twinsnorth49
08-13-2013, 10:39 AM
My inherent response to this "news" is: Duh. What else were you expecting?

Now if it included the name of a team that claimed him, then it's actually news. I'm with Oldgoat, though, I'd love to see him get a ring somewhere.

Yet you still decide to post.....curious.

snepp
08-13-2013, 10:42 AM
he's my 2nd favorite all time Twin

He's only my 4th, thus, expendable.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-13-2013, 10:48 AM
Ugh, it would suck to see him go. I'd still only give him up for a prospect of value (they would have to fit in the top 20 of our org) if you can only get cash or a player to be named later, then just hold onto him and let him finish the year out as the Twins try to win 75 or so games.

Also I have no desire to see Collabero or Parmelee at first base every day, I am pretty confident neither one is a full time major league first baseman, period.

beckmt
08-13-2013, 10:48 AM
Nice to see him go to a contender. Would not expect the Twins to resign, so lets get something for him. Too bad though, he was so good at one time.

PseudoSABR
08-13-2013, 11:02 AM
I have such mixed feelings about this. If they can't land more than a PTBNL, I'd rather just keep him, and explore resigning him on the cheap after the season. Honestly, I can't see him netting a top 10 prospect from a team, and less than that it's hardly worth it (to me).

Blackjack
08-13-2013, 11:04 AM
I wish he could get a ring, one of my favorite Twins ever.

Not even in my top 10, I've listened to a lot of his interviews, very cryptic, very sarcastic, when the door hits him in the butt I won't be sad. Lately hes been saying that he wants to stay here but will he leave some money on the table and sign a Twins friendly deal - after collecting 80 million dollars?? Probably not.

diehardtwinsfan
08-13-2013, 11:12 AM
He's my favorite player, but this is a business. I'm a bit surprised he wasn't put on waivers right away. Given that he's been heating up, someone might claim him. I'd think the return would be better if he wasn't claimed.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-13-2013, 11:13 AM
He's my favorite player, but this is a business. I'm a bit surprised he wasn't put on waivers right away. Given that he's been heating up, someone might claim him. I'd think the return would be better if he wasn't claimed.

He most certainly will be claimed. Unfortunately it will probably be the Yankees

PseudoSABR
08-13-2013, 11:14 AM
Here's a list of teams in order of the chance they have to claim him. Given his streak, it's not clear that he will make it through waivers.

Yankees
Indians
Royals
Orioles
Rays
As
Rangers
Tigers
Boston
NL Teams

All these teams have need for Morneau (some more than others) save the Royals, Tigers, and Redsox.

Any realistic 'specs you guys like off some top 20 lists? (Link (http://www.fantasyrundown.com/2013_MLB_Prospects.html) to prospect lists for ease)

ThePuck
08-13-2013, 11:16 AM
I'm a bit surprised he wasn't put on waivers right away. Given that he's been heating up, someone might claim him. I'd think the return would be better if he wasn't claimed.

I think they were waiting for him to heat up.

StormJH1
08-13-2013, 11:17 AM
Not even in my top 10, I've listened to a lot of his interviews, very cryptic, very sarcastic, when the door hits him in the butt I won't be sad. Lately hes been saying that he wants to stay here but will he leave some money on the table and sign a Twins friendly deal - after collecting 80 million dollars?? Probably not.

I've heard he was an absolute punk when he showed (there's the famous story about Torii b%$&*-slapping him), but there's reason to believe he grew up. Or, at the very least, he matured to the point where whatever his personal flaws happen to be (and we all have them), they never shined through publicly to embarrass himself or the organization. From the perspective of a baseball fan, there's really no basis to think Mauer is any better of a guy than Morneau.

He is one of my favorite Twins since I moved here in 2003, no doubt. Probably the favorite. But I'm also realistic about his decline, so yeah, flip him for a bag of balls if you can. If you don't though, it's not a big deal. It should kept in mind that the value of a Morneau "rental" as of 7/31 was two full months of Morneau. By the time a waiver trade would be completed, it's closer to one month. You'd have to be nuts to give up even a C+ prospect for one month of Justin Morneau at this point.

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2013, 11:19 AM
If Justin lands on another team, that's the team I'll be cheering for in the playoffs.

Unless it's the Yankees. I can't cheer for them under any circumstances.

And maybe the Red Sox. I hate them, too.

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2013, 11:20 AM
Also, I consider it a pretty massive gaff on Ryan's part that Justin didn't already make it through waivers. No one would have claimed him in the first few days of August. Now, it's a very different story. Even some of the crappier teams might claim him just for the hell of it.

ThePuck
08-13-2013, 11:21 AM
I've heard he was an absolute punk when he showed (there's the famous story about Torii b%$&*-slapping him), but there's reason to believe he grew up. Or, at the very least, he matured to the point where whatever his personal flaws happen to be (and we all have them), they never shined through publicly to embarrass himself or the organization. From the perspective of a baseball fan, there's really no basis to think Mauer is any better of a guy than Morneau.

He is one of my favorite Twins since I moved here in 2003, no doubt. Probably the favorite. But I'm also realistic about his decline, so yeah, flip him for a bag of balls if you can. If you don't though, it's not a big deal. It should kept in mind that the value of a Morneau "rental" as of 7/31 was two full months of Morneau. By the time a waiver trade would be completed, it's closer to one month. You'd have to be nuts to give up even a C+ prospect for one month of Justin Morneau at this point.

yeah, we don't even know who was in the right or wrong in that confrontation between Hunter and Morny. Hunter was talking about how the young guys weren't respecting the veterans. Well, Hunter has always been a loudmouth, so makes me wonder...

drjim
08-13-2013, 11:23 AM
I think they were waiting for him to heat up.

Perhaps. Or maybe the timing of the roster crunch coming soon.

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2013, 11:27 AM
yeah, we don't even know who was in the right or wrong in that confrontation between Hunter and Morny. Hunter was talking about how the young guys weren't respecting the veterans. Well, Hunter has always been a loudmouth, so makes me wonder...

Given their respective histories, I tend to fall on the side of Justin Morneau on this one. Hunter has repeatedly said moronic (and I mean MORONIC) things to the media. One can only imagine the crap he has said to teammates.

And generally, I like Hunter.

Nick Nelson
08-13-2013, 11:32 AM
yeah, we don't even know who was in the right or wrong in that confrontation between Hunter and Morny.
Punto.

PseudoSABR
08-13-2013, 11:34 AM
Also, I consider it a pretty massive gaff on Ryan's part that Justin didn't already make it through waivers. No one would have claimed him in the first few days of August. Now, it's a very different story. Even some of the crappier teams might claim him just for the hell of it.Right. I'm trying to think of any benefit from waiting until he was hot to put him on waivers, but I really can't. Is his contract really that big of a factor (both in terms of his likelihood of being claimed and ownerships desire to move him)? It makes me worry that if he is traded, it will be all about the money.

ThePuck
08-13-2013, 11:36 AM
Punto.

When in doubt, that's the safe bet :-)

mike wants wins
08-13-2013, 11:37 AM
He and his wife choose to live here, and are active in the community. Oh, and he was a great player. He's very Koskie like, imo.

PseudoSABR
08-13-2013, 11:38 AM
Morneau and Hunter have strong personalities, both seem to have a sense of leadership, loyalty, and goodwill. Neither strikes me as phoney, even if both are pretty full of themselves. That said, people with prominent personalities and different ideas of what leadership and goodwill look like will clash under high stress. Too many cooks in the kitchen scenario.

striker_86
08-13-2013, 11:38 AM
Ill take what I can get for him, even if it is next to nothing. He's been swinging the bat well, but the rest of the year he was average. If we keep him, and he has a hot August/September...some team will offer him a decent contract. I honestly wouldn't pay more than $4 million a year for the guy and I think he will get more than that in free agency. I love the guy, but we need to move on.

ThePuck
08-13-2013, 11:44 AM
Morneau and Hunter have strong personalities, both seem to have a sense of leadership, loyalty, and goodwill. Neither strikes me as phoney, even if both are pretty full of themselves. That said, people with prominent personalities and different ideas of what leadership and goodwill look like will clash under high stress. Too many cooks in the kitchen scenario.

I think if Morny was full of himself, he wouldn't have been a gracious as he was during the HR derby a few years back when they interviewed the runner up before him and then when they did interview him, they called him by the wrong first name...Jason, I believe it was. He was all about giving Hamilton the glory. Players full of themselves would have raised a rukkus.

jokin
08-13-2013, 11:49 AM
Ugh, it would suck to see him go. I'd still only give him up for a prospect of value (they would have to fit in the top 20 of our org) if you can only get cash or a player to be named later, then just hold onto him and let him finish the year out as the Twins try to win 75 or so games.

Also I have no desire to see Collabero or Parmelee at first base every day, I am pretty confident neither one is a full time major league first baseman, period.

Both you and I were just that "confident" that Dozier wasn't a major league second baseman- just an occasional tease destined for inevitable failure. Egg on both our faces as Dozier has been proving since late May that what he's doing at the plate (plus a first-rate glove at second) is no fluke or tease- he's becoming a legitimate team leader.

We're rebuilding, get a prospect for Morneau, revisit his status and potential availability in the offseason, and in the meantime, give the 200 or so PAs to someone else to help form more conclusive opinions about them.

Mave
08-13-2013, 11:50 AM
Will he be claimed? As we have established, most likely.
But that doesn't necessarily mean he is a goner. Given he is pretty darn hot right now, that adds negotiating power and hopefully a better return for Morneau.
If TR and the brass aren't happy with what they are offering, then pull him back off waivers!

PseudoSABR
08-13-2013, 11:52 AM
I think if Morny was full of himself, he wouldn't have been a gracious as he was during the HR derby a few years back when they interviewed the runner up before him and then when they did interview him, they called him by the wrong first name...Jason, I believe it was. He was all about giving Hamilton the glory. Players full of themselves would have raised a rukkus.People can be both gracious and narcissistic, as I said I think Morneausy has demonstrated plenty of good will and isn't phoney at all. That said, I remember Justin's wry smile during that interview, and as you say, pretty classy.

jokin
08-13-2013, 11:54 AM
Right. I'm trying to think of any benefit from waiting until he was hot to put him on waivers, but I really can't. Is his contract really that big of a factor (both in terms of his likelihood of being claimed and ownerships desire to move him)? It makes me worry that if he is traded, it will be all about the money.

We're really at the point now when the only shock and surprise is that people are shocked and surprised that this organization isn't:

1) all about the money first, and,
2) actively engaged in improving the club 24/7/365.

Badsmerf
08-13-2013, 12:09 PM
Like has already been pointed out, the fact Terry Ryan waited this long to put him on waivers is really unacceptable. One has to have some forethought to pull off good moves. This gives me little confidence that Terry Ryan is going to build a winner this time around.

TheLeviathan
08-13-2013, 12:11 PM
Clearly the whole Hunter/Morneau fight was orchestrated so someone could punch Punto in the face.

cmathewson
08-13-2013, 12:13 PM
Right. I'm trying to think of any benefit from waiting until he was hot to put him on waivers, but I really can't. Is his contract really that big of a factor (both in terms of his likelihood of being claimed and ownerships desire to move him)? It makes me worry that if he is traded, it will be all about the money.

How about waiting until he actually had some trade value after a seven-homer barrage?

PseudoSABR
08-13-2013, 12:15 PM
I've thought about it some more and I think I know what the Twins were thinking about waiting to put Justin on waivers. We've been assuming that Justin would pass through waivers. I'm guessing the Twins didn't want to take the chance that he'd get claimed while he was producing so poorly. (Say the Yankees or Rangers may have been willing to claim despite his contract, just to take the chance on his production).

Badsmerf
08-13-2013, 12:16 PM
How about waiting until he actually had some trade value after a seven-homer barrage?
The point is to clear waivers and not get claimed. Putting him on waivers now is the absolute worst timing possible (considering his homer binge). That is why it is a blunder. He clears waivers in early August and Terry Ryan would be negotiating trades right now instead of praying he doesn't get claimed.

Badsmerf
08-13-2013, 12:19 PM
I've thought about it some more and I think I know what the Twins were thinking about waiting to put Justin on waivers. We've been assuming that Justin would pass through waivers. I'm guessing the Twins didn't want to take the chance that he'd get claimed while he was producing so poorly. (Say the Yankees or Rangers may have been willing to claim despite his contract, just to take the chance on his production).
Possible. He was completely terrible in July though, so there wasn't much saying he was going to hit 7 homers in 2 weeks.

Mave
08-13-2013, 12:47 PM
The point is to clear waivers and not get claimed. Putting him on waivers now is the absolute worst timing possible (considering his homer binge). That is why it is a blunder. He clears waivers in early August and Terry Ryan would be negotiating trades right now instead of praying he doesn't get claimed.

Again... work out a better deal now that he is hitting significantly better! If they don't like what is being offered withing the 48-hour negotiating period with the claiming team, then pull him back off waivers!!!!!! (sorry for yelling...)

There really is no harm in putting a player on Major League waivers. As it has been mentioned, this happens all of the time, with pretty much all players.

My question is-- I thought this waiver process, and who was put on waivers was supposed to be a secret process, with no information allowed to be disclosed unless if something is finalized. Is that still technically (but not practically with the current state of 24-hour media/insiders) the rule? Can anyone help me out here?

Riverbrian
08-13-2013, 01:01 PM
My inherent response to this "news" is: Duh. What else were you expecting?

Now if it included the name of a team that claimed him, then it's actually news. I'm with Oldgoat, though, I'd love to see him get a ring somewhere.

This post will be deleted... Kind of pointless to delete this post after copying it in my response but the post will be deleted nonetheless as a matter of policy.

Not everyone who reads Twins Daily understands the waiver process so "Duh" is completely unnecessary. Some of us understand that your understanding of the process is at an elite level. Try to understand the varying degrees of knowledge and be respectful.

Winston Smith
08-13-2013, 01:03 PM
"....positive for resigning him to a "hometown discount" after the season." Would this be the same hometown discount that Mauer took?

SweetOne69
08-13-2013, 01:03 PM
Again... work out a better deal now that he is hitting significantly better! If they don't like what is being offered withing the 48-hour negotiating period with the claiming team, then pull him back off waivers!!!!!! (sorry for yelling...)

There really is no harm in putting a player on Major League waivers. As it has been mentioned, this happens all of the time, with pretty much all players.

My question is-- I thought this waiver process, and who was put on waivers was supposed to be a secret process, with no information allowed to be disclosed unless if something is finalized. Is that still technically (but not practically with the current state of 24-hour media/insiders) the rule? Can anyone help me out here?

You are missing a major point.

If a player clears waivers then you can talk to all teams to work out a trade. But if a player is claimed, then you can only negotiate with the team that claimed him. You have more bargaining power after a player clears waivers.

While it is true that if you can't work out a deal you can pull the player back. But you can only do that once. If try to put him through waivers is irrevocable and you have Zero bargaining power if he is claimed again.

The only time that you hope a player gets claimed is when that player has a really bad contract and it is a total salary dump (think Alex Rios with the White Sox a couple of years back).

drjim
08-13-2013, 01:10 PM
You are missing a major point.

If a player clears waivers then you can talk to all teams to work out a trade. But if a player is claimed, then you can only negotiate with the team that claimed him. You have more bargaining power after a player clears waivers.

While it is true that if you can't work out a deal you can pull the player back. But you can only do that once. If try to put him through waivers is irrevocable and you have Zero bargaining power if he is claimed again.

The only time that you hope a player gets claimed is when that player has a really bad contract and it is a total salary dump (think Alex Rios with the
White Sox a couple of years back).

There is an easy counter. If the Twins put him on waivers Aug 1 and a team (ie Yankees) may claim him and refuse to give anything other than salary relief. Then the Twins have no way to receive compensation. At least now there is a little leverage.

cmb0252
08-13-2013, 01:20 PM
I'm just not as sentimental as everyone around here I guess. Trade him for what you can get and move on.

SweetOne69
08-13-2013, 01:59 PM
There is an easy counter. If the Twins put him on waivers Aug 1 and a team (ie Yankees) may claim him and refuse to give anything other than salary relief. Then the Twins have no way to receive compensation. At least now there is a little leverage.

While your point is valid, can you name one instance where a team claimed a player that was performing poorly and has been for a while?

I can just hear a GM saying: "This guy hasn't done much all year and has done nothing for the last month, but I think he will turn it around and all I will have to do is take on the remaining $5M of his salary to get him."

It wouldn't take to many of those gambles for that GM to find himself unemployed.

Mave
08-13-2013, 02:09 PM
You are missing a major point.

If a player clears waivers then you can talk to all teams to work out a trade. But if a player is claimed, then you can only negotiate with the team that claimed him. You have more bargaining power after a player clears waivers.

While it is true that if you can't work out a deal you can pull the player back. But you can only do that once. If try to put him through waivers is irrevocable and you have Zero bargaining power if he is claimed again.

The only time that you hope a player gets claimed is when that player has a really bad contract and it is a total salary dump (think Alex Rios with the White Sox a couple of years back).

Thank you, irrevocable waivers is a good point to be brought up. I guess I didn't go far enough with my point.

If the Twins don't like what they are being offered from the claiming team in that 48 hour window, then pull him back and just don't worry about it. Keep him around. In the short term, you still have a fan-favorite on your team (hopefully keeping more of the casual fans in the stands than if you just dump him for nothing), who is hitting the ball well now. It is a short-sighted move, but I really don't think it is a bad one. Try to resign him to a reasonable deal over the next year or two and reassess when the cavalry arrives from FTM and NB.

stringer bell
08-13-2013, 02:46 PM
I guess I see this a little differently. First of all, no one is going to claim Morneau for sport, because the Twins can simply accept the claim and the claiming club owes the balance of his salary. That is more than $3M for a quarter of the season. From my point of view, if the Twins unload Morneau's salary, clear a roster spot and nothing else they break even. If they get a player with some chance someday of being a contributor, that is even better. If they get greedy and want a top prospect (or bust) then they end up with Morneau til the end of the season.

Kwak
08-13-2013, 04:06 PM
Also, I consider it a pretty massive gaff on Ryan's part that Justin didn't already make it through waivers. No one would have claimed him in the first few days of August. Now, it's a very different story. Even some of the crappier teams might claim him just for the hell of it.

The point of waiving a man is for him to be claimed. It was clever on Ryan's part to wait the two weeks, in order to allow teams to satisfy themselves that they were "in it" and make a claim for Morneau. The delay also reduces their cost. With respect to which team claims Justin--that is irrelevant to the Twins.

If Morneau is claimed, I fully expect a straight cash deal--they pay the rest of Morneau's salary for 2013 and the Twins get a reduced payroll.

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2013, 04:09 PM
The point of waiving a man is for him to be claimed. It was clever on Ryan's part to wait the two weeks, in order to allow teams to satisfy themselves that they were "in it" and make a claim for Morneau. The delay also reduces their cost. With respect to which team claims Justin--that is irrelevant to the Twins.

If Morneau is claimed, I fully expect a straight cash deal--they pay the rest of Morneau's salary for 2013 and the Twins get a reduced payroll.

Why do they want a player to be claimed? It's much easier to trade a player that has cleared waivers, as you can now trade that player to any team.

nicksaviking
08-13-2013, 04:15 PM
The point of waiving a man is for him to be claimed. It was clever on Ryan's part to wait the two weeks, in order to allow teams to satisfy themselves that they were "in it" and make a claim for Morneau. The delay also reduces their cost. With respect to which team claims Justin--that is irrelevant to the Twins.

If Morneau is claimed, I fully expect a straight cash deal--they pay the rest of Morneau's salary for 2013 and the Twins get a reduced payroll.

The point of waivers is to give the worst teams a chance at possible useful players other teams are casting off. But that's only an effort for reasonable compitition at the MLB level. Waivers is not helpful to sellers at this time of year. To maximize the value, you don't want anyone to claim him so you are free to negotiate with everyone. I don't see any way that waiting to put Morneau on waivers until he gets hot is any kind of advantage for the Twins. As Brock said, it was an oversight. He possibly would have cleared waivers if placed immediately. The Twins could have then waited to trade him when/if he got hot.

Edit: I think you may be under the impression that if a player clears waivers, he must be traded immediately. He does not, the Twins can place their whole team on waivers August 1 and wait to trade any that clear at their leisure.

James
08-13-2013, 04:40 PM
The point of waivers is to give the worst teams a chance at possible useful players other teams are casting off. But that's only an effort for reasonable compitition at the MLB level. Waivers is not helpful to sellers at this time of year. To maximize the value, you don't want anyone to claim him so you are free to negotiate with everyone. I don't see any way that waiting to put Morneau on waivers until he gets hot is any kind of advantage for the Twins. As Brock said, it was an oversight. He possibly would have cleared waivers if placed immediately. The Twins could have then waited to trade him when/if he got hot.

Edit: I think you may be under the impression that if a player clears waivers, he must be traded immediately. He does not, the Twins can place their whole team on waivers August 1 and wait to trade any that clear at their leisure.
There's also a chance that a team like the Yankees might claim him so a team like the Orioles or Rays couldn't. Even if they knew that they didn't actually want him. I don't think GM used to claim players to block other teams from getting them, but I think it's something that definitely happens now.

I'm not 100% which was the best option really. There was solid logic to put him on waivers on Aug 1st, and there was solid logic to wait and see if he heats up to maximize the return.

My guess is that he's claimed by a non-contender, and we're not offered a whole lot. My preference would be that he makes it all the way to the Dodgers, because Ned Colletti seems to enjoy overpaying for players.

Kwak
08-13-2013, 05:03 PM
The point of waivers is to give the worst teams a chance at possible useful players other teams are casting off. But that's only an effort for reasonable compitition at the MLB level. Waivers is not helpful to sellers at this time of year. To maximize the value, you don't want anyone to claim him so you are free to negotiate with everyone. I don't see any way that waiting to put Morneau on waivers until he gets hot is any kind of advantage for the Twins. As Brock said, it was an oversight. He possibly would have cleared waivers if placed immediately. The Twins could have then waited to trade him when/if he got hot.

Edit: I think you may be under the impression that if a player clears waivers, he must be traded immediately. He does not, the Twins can place their whole team on waivers August 1 and wait to trade any that clear at their leisure.

I am aware a cleared player doesn't have to be traded--at all! My belief is that the Twins wish to cut ties with Morneau even if all they receive is cost reduction. By changing teams, it also permits the Twins to make an offer for a free-agent Morneau substantially below his present salary and it also breaks the chain of 5 and 10 for future trade considerations.

AROG
08-13-2013, 05:22 PM
There is a lot to the waiver process, not just what immediately comes to mind. There is a ton of strategy to consider. It is possible that a team like the Yankees were working on a deal that was close before the trade deadline but the Twins felt it wasn't good enough so a if the Twins put him on waivers right away that team would claim him and say "give us what we want, or give him too us, or keep him, your call." Giving them leverage on a player that wasn't worth as much then.

Also, since the trade rumors started, Justin hit terrible. So there is thought that having it die down and giving him peace about it could get him to straighten out his head, creating more value. If he passed through waivers unclaimed he would hear about it nonstop again until traded.

My point, there are so many strategies that come into place with these waivers it is almost impossible to criticize until we know what happened. Now with that being said, I love to speculate on what could happen and why it could have happened that way, so cheer-e-o.

P.S. - Everything we know about Hunter and Mourny leads to them being great teammates. It is very possible/probable that there scuff was a misunderstanding by two people from completely different worlds. Hunter is a prankster, loud, and happy-go-lucky, Justin is Canadian...

Sssuperdave
08-13-2013, 05:22 PM
If this is an attempted salary dump, then it makes sense to me that you'd want him to be claimed, and that Ryan waited to put him on waivers until he got hot. Perhaps Ryan wanted to trade him in July but no team would accept his full contract - they would only trade if the Twins paid some. Now if a team places a claim on him, they have to be willing to eat his entire remaining salary.

Yes, if he clears waivers you can trade with anyone, but you're in the same spot you were in July with no one willing to eat his entire salary. Obviously this is entirely hypothetical - I have no idea what the market for Morneau was/is like.

Major Leauge Ready
08-13-2013, 06:09 PM
I read or heard somewhere they had substantial interst in Morneau and believed someone would be willing to give up something for him if he heated up in August. Had they put him up right away, they must have believed someone would have claimed him but they would have been correct to assume they still would not give up anything for him and the window is only 48 hours.

Now he has value. A non-contender certainly is not going to claim him. They are no going to pick-up his salary at this point. A contender could claim him and still offer nothing so one of the other contenders can't get him.

Obviously, it would have been ideal had he cleared waiver but the Twins obviously felt that was not going to happen even if they had done it immediately. Let's think about this situation. Do you think the whole FO overlooked putting Morneau on waivers and then suddenly realized they should put him up?

raindog
08-13-2013, 06:50 PM
Also I have no desire to see Collabero or Parmelee at first base every day, I am pretty confident neither one is a full time major league first baseman, period.
I'm pretty confident that they both could be better than Morneau at this stage of his career. They need major league plate appearances so we can find out.

Morneau should be traded for anything we can get it return. If only to evaluate the younger guys. Terry Ryan got a decent prospect for freaking Butera. I'm sure he can get someone of value for Morneau.

PseudoSABR
08-13-2013, 07:14 PM
I'm pretty confident that they both could be better than Morneau at this stage of his career. I don't think that's a given at all.

AM.
08-13-2013, 07:34 PM
I'm pretty confident that they both could be better than Morneau at this stage of his career. They need major league plate appearances so we can find out.

Morneau should be traded for anything we can get it return. If only to evaluate the younger guys. Terry Ryan got a decent prospect for freaking Butera. I'm sure he can get someone of value for Morneau.
Who?

diehardtwinsfan
08-13-2013, 08:32 PM
I wonder if he has a potential partner lined up and waited until the waiver priority made it likely that this partner could claim him. I agree that it would be nice if he clears it, but there was enough interest that some one out there might want to snag him.

raindog
08-13-2013, 08:36 PM
Colabello and Parmalee. No, it's not a given, but it won't be hard for them to replace Morneau's production at 1B.

Jdosen
08-13-2013, 11:10 PM
I've been a big fan of Morneau in his time here, but I don't think he will be on the next team that wins the division and competes for a World Series, so I think we should trade him for whatever we can get, and move on. I'd like to give Colabello or Parm consistent at bats than give them to Justin at this point.

stringer bell
08-13-2013, 11:16 PM
I confess that I haven't been a huge Morneau fan since he limped home for the '06 MVP. He has been a poor player late in seasons when he hasn't been injured, and he has usually missed significant time at the end of the season. That said, I actually respect his work and effort to get back. He plays hard and works very hard on his hitting (maybe too hard), but the results overall just haven't been commensurate with his salary. I suspect that Morneau will in fact be traded and the "bounty" will consist of salary savings and any prospect will be no better that what they got for Butera. I really don't hold out much hope that Morneau will return to the Twins for 2014, and to be honest, I won't have that much regret or disappointment if that is indeed the case. There would be value in opening a spot on both the 25-man roster and the 40-man. $3.5M in savings could be better used in acquiring pitching in the offseason, although I won't hold my breath.

diehardtwinsfan
08-14-2013, 07:26 AM
Honestly, I'd be thrilled if we got a similar prospect for Morneau as Butera. He hasn't been his old self, and I'm still in shock that the Dodgers would be willing to send a guy like that over. I'm guessing TR has held out for more. He doesn't give away his guys. He wants value back.

USAFChief
08-14-2013, 08:25 AM
Colabello and Parmalee. No, it's not a given, but it won't be hard for them to replace Morneau's production at 1B.
It seems to have been hard for those two to replace Morneau's production even in a season where he has struggled.

And a platoon is pretty hard to accommodate in this day and age of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs, so I don't see a 1b platoon as very realistic either.

I have strong doubts Parmelee will ever be as good as Morneau will be going forward, and even stronger doubts about Colabelo.

Brock Beauchamp
08-14-2013, 08:50 AM
I have strong doubts Parmelee will ever be as good as Morneau will be going forward, and even stronger doubts about Colabelo.

I think most of us share this sentiment... Which is why it would have been nice to let Parmelee flail away every day in a lost season so we actually have an answer to the question heading into 2014.

AM.
08-14-2013, 08:51 AM
I would happily take a Sulbaranesque return for Morneau.

USAFChief
08-14-2013, 08:53 AM
I think most of us share this sentiment... Which is why it would have been nice to let Parmelee flail away every day in a lost season so we actually have an answer to the question heading into 2014.
Fair enough. Perhaps the Twins felt they already knew what they had in Parmelee, and were more interested in seeing where Morneau was at.

Brock Beauchamp
08-14-2013, 08:57 AM
Fair enough. Perhaps the Twins felt they already knew what they had in Parmelee, and were more interested in seeing where Morneau was at.

Which I understand... But had the team played Parmelee over Doumit and actually put Willingham on the DL instead of mucking around for a month, we might be in a different situation (ie. Willingham may have been traded and Chris would have played every day for 6-8 weeks).

I just don't understand why they didn't push this thinking instead of letting vets play (and play poorly, at that).

Major Leauge Ready
08-14-2013, 09:24 AM
I sure hope they get a decent prospect back for Morneau and then split the ABs between Parmalee and Colabello for the remainder of the season. It would be great if one of them stepped as a bridge to Vargas / Harrison / other. If not, 1B is a position they should be able to address through free agency. I wonder if Seattle will pick-up their team option on Morales? They are not likely to contend in 2014 and they have five 1B listed on their AAA roster.

MichiganTwins
08-14-2013, 09:29 AM
Have we heard anything more about Morneau's waiver status?

Marta Shearing
08-14-2013, 09:52 AM
I confess that I haven't been a huge Morneau fan since he limped home
for the '06 MVP. He has been a poor player late in seasons when he hasn't been injured, and he has usually missed significant time at the end of the season. That said, I actually respect his work and effort to get back. He plays hard and works very hard on his hitting (maybe too hard), but the results overall just haven't been commensurate with his salary. I suspect that Morneau will in fact be traded and the "bounty" will consist of salary savings and any prospect will be no better that what they got for Butera. I really don't hold out much hope that Morneau will return to the Twins for 2014, and to be honest, I won't have that much regret or disappointment if that is indeed the case. There would be value in opening a spot on both the 25-man roster and the 40-man. $3.5M in savings could be better used in acquiring pitching in the offseason, although I won't hold my breath.
Well stated. 2007-2009 he was dreadful in Aug/Sept all three years. Most aggravating was 2009 when he was hurt and played terrible for weeks but kept on playing until he hit his 30th homerun. THEN he shut it down. And the team went on a great run WITHOUT him (mercifully).

nicksaviking
08-14-2013, 10:01 AM
Have we heard anything more about Morneau's waiver status?

Reportedly, the deadline for a waiver claim on Morneau is noon today.

I too thought it would have been in the Twins best interest to let Parmelee flail away this lost season. There would have been room to evaluate/showcase Morneau also had the Twins just put Doumit on the bench. In my opinion, Doumit has been the cause of the playing time logjam, he always seemed like a great bench bat but an impediment as a starter on a rebuilding team. I wonder if he has been placed on waivers? I'm not sure the protocol for guys on the DL.

Oldgoat_MN
08-14-2013, 10:09 AM
I confess that I haven't been a huge Morneau fan since he limped home for the '06 MVP....

Not really sure what this is about.
Morneau September/October 2006:
.345/.397/.487 (.884)

Not his best month's split from that year, but it's not like he mailed it in.

Marta Shearing
08-14-2013, 12:01 PM
Not really sure what this is about.
Morneau September/October 2006:
.345/.397/.487 (.884)

Not his best month's split from that year, but it's not like he mailed it in.
Yeah, that poster was wrong about 2006, but otherwise pretty accurate. I remember one of those seasons late in the year he called out Casilla and then morneau proceeded to go on a brutal, horrendous stretch of his own. Probably why he's never called out anyone since.

Linus
08-14-2013, 12:22 PM
Colabello and Parmalee. No, it's not a given, but it won't be hard for them to replace Morneau's production at 1B.

Actually, I think it will be hard to replace his production at the plate and in the field from the players they currently have. The only current player on their roster who is going to play elite defense and is likely to hit 280 with 20+ homers and 85+ RBIs is Morneau. People tend to forget that he is their best first baseman and arguably their 2nd or 3rd best hitter. Plus, he's not that much older than Colabello.

stringer bell
08-14-2013, 12:27 PM
Not really sure what this is about.
Morneau September/October 2006:
.345/.397/.487 (.884)

Not his best month's split from that year, but it's not like he mailed it in.I won't argue with the numbers. However, IIRC, Morneau was white hot in August and the first week or so in September and then drifted the 2-3 weeks while the MVP talk intensified. The Twins were the midst of an incredible run catching the Tigers and winning the division, but they did wrap up at least a wild card pretty early.

cmathewson
08-14-2013, 12:36 PM
I won't argue with the numbers. However, IIRC, Morneau was white hot in August and the first week or so in September and then drifted the 2-3 weeks while the MVP talk intensified. The Twins were the midst of an incredible run catching the Tigers and winning the division, but they did wrap up at least a wild card pretty early.

Cherry picking numbers to prove a point? He won the MVP after starting the season poorly. That implies that, over his last four months, he played about as well as he has ever played.

Most guys have hot streaks and cold streaks. You can always point to the cold streaks and say he isn't as good as his numbers. That's why we insist on large sample sizes. Overall, he played pretty well from 2006 through his concussion in mid 2010, arguably on par with Hrbek's prime years.

Marta Shearing
08-14-2013, 01:25 PM
And morneau clears waivers

Brock Beauchamp
08-14-2013, 01:27 PM
And morneau clears waivers

Nice. And it turns into a moot point.

TwinsFanInPhilly
08-14-2013, 01:35 PM
And morneau clears waivers

That means they can discuss trades with any team - correct?

PseudoSABR
08-14-2013, 01:41 PM
I'm surprised no one claimed him. His bat would help a lot of teams. I guess his salary really is an albatross (which seems odd to me, given how many teams need a bat). The Twins aren't the only ones who play cheap evidently.

ThePuck
08-14-2013, 01:41 PM
Hmmm, I guess waiting till he started to do well wasn't as bad of an idea as some thought.

Badsmerf
08-14-2013, 01:44 PM
Hmmm, I guess waiting till he started to do well wasn't as bad of an idea as some thought.
Yes it was. Him clearing waivers is not a sign that Terry Ryan made a good move. He got lucky this time.

Thrylos
08-14-2013, 01:48 PM
Ugh, it would suck to see him go. I'd still only give him up for a prospect of value (they would have to fit in the top 20 of our org) if you can only get cash or a player to be named later, then just hold onto him and let him finish the year out as the Twins try to win 75 or so games..

And what exactly this would do for the Twins in the long run?

Rosterman
08-14-2013, 01:52 PM
Does that mean the Twins can send him to the minors and pick up some service time options??

Really, interesting that no one threw out a claim just to block, and that a contending team didn't claim just to negotiate. Just to keep the Twins honest and no
t put him thru waivers again. So, what does this say about the worth/need for Justin on any contending team?

PseudoSABR
08-14-2013, 02:01 PM
So, what does this say about the worth/need for Justin on any contending team?I think it says that teams are cheap. And that if they are going to give up something of value, they'll want the Twins to eat some of the contract.

I think a PTBNL (unless its for service time reasons) trade is less likely now. My read is that the Twins want a good piece back, or will just hold on to him. Essentially the Twins might have to pay for a prospect, which, honestly, is preferable.

StormJH1
08-14-2013, 02:05 PM
Can't we still eat up to like $3 million of the salary (or whatever the number is?). Also, the salary is pro-rated, so it's not like new team cuts a check for $14 million. They pay for whatever is left. Of course, I'd be relatively stunned to see the Twins make a deal where they pay for another team's player, even if that made it possible for them to get a better player in return.

diehardtwinsfan
08-14-2013, 02:11 PM
Does that mean the Twins can send him to the minors and pick up some service time options??



No. What it said is that no one claimed him. This means no one was willing to take the risk of the Twins simply saying "You can have him and his salary". It's a bit of a catch 22. If he passes through unclaimed, they can trade him to anyone. If he's claimed, they can only trade him to whomever claimed him. You don't want him claimed if you want everyone bidding on him, but what this said is that demand was low enough that no one really wanted to risk getting him and his salary for free.

It means we need to pick up some of that or the PTBNL will be conditionally based on how well Justin peforms for his new team. I'm not necessarily against either of those options.

nicksaviking
08-14-2013, 02:11 PM
Can't we still eat up to like $3 million of the salary (or whatever the number is?). Also, the salary is pro-rated, so it's not like new team cuts a check for $14 million. They pay for whatever is left. Of course, I'd be relatively stunned to see the Twins make a deal where they pay for another team's player, even if that made it possible for them to get a better player in return.

I agree the Twins don't seem like they'd like to pick up a bunch of salary even though it is currently a sunk cost. They can either pay his salary and get a prospect back or pay his salary and let him walk at the end of the year, gaining nothing but whatever small uptick in attendance is caused by Morneau in the lineup.

Brock Beauchamp
08-14-2013, 02:17 PM
That means they can discuss trades with any team - correct?

Yes, now any trade involving Justin would work just like a pre-July 31st trade.

Linus
08-14-2013, 02:25 PM
Yes, now any trade involving Justin would work just like a pre-July 31st trade.

I believe they can only trade for another player who has cleared waivers or is not on the other team's 40 man roster....

nicksaviking
08-14-2013, 02:27 PM
Yes, now any trade involving Justin would work just like a pre-July 31st trade.

But now with better stats! Get yours while supplies last!

(always ask your parents permission when ordering online)

stringer bell
08-14-2013, 03:15 PM
$3.5M may not buy as much as it used to, but it is still a lot of money.

AROG
08-14-2013, 03:31 PM
I don't want to sound like I am always backing up Ryan, but sometimes I feel like I have to just to make him appear to be anything but the worst GM ever. But, It seems like Ryan played his cards right so that no one would claim him. Maybe threatening to just let the other team take him and his money. My other thought is the luck card thrown by badsmurf. A lot of the teams in need of a good bat either at DH or off the bench have teams in front of them that are playing very well.

And on the PTBNL, they are very rarely based on production, and I only say very rarely because I don't like absolutes when I don't have all of the facts, but I have never seen any case that it has every been based on quality of play of the other player. Most of the time PTBNL are trades that come down to the wire, either at the trade deadline or the 48 hour waiver clock, and the team getting the PTBNL hasn't had the time to fully scout the players in the lower minors. So, they will agree to the trade for a $ amount or one a a list of players the trading team says they can choose from.

DJL44
08-14-2013, 04:27 PM
Teams will have the chance to let the Twins burn off another $500,000+ in salary if they just wait two weeks. The playoff picture should be clearer by then also.

Kwak
08-14-2013, 06:42 PM
Bummer! I guess Justin better enjoy these monstrous checks for the rest of the year, it sounds like he will be on a minimal "make-good" contract next year.

I think he will continue to be a regular starter through August (they do want to make a trade!), then he will be benched in September in order to give a better look at other players.

Oxtung
08-14-2013, 09:54 PM
The Twins should trade Justin and $23 million, the money not spent this year on salaries and the remainder of Morneau's contract, to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy. Let's buy us a Bundy! ;)

Mr. Brooks
08-14-2013, 10:12 PM
The Twins should trade Justin and $23 million, the money not spent this year on salaries and the remainder of Morneau's contract, to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy. Let's buy us a Bundy! ;)

I know you are being sarcastic, but this trade would never happen. Not only would the O's never consider it, but it would be rejected by MLB.
This type of scenario is exactly why any trade involving cash has to be approved by MLB, to keep teams from simply going out any buying all the best prospects with straight cash homey.
Teams like the Yankees , Dodgers and Red Sox are already at a huge advantage being able to afford any FA they want, think of how bad it would be if they could theoretically go out and "buy" any prospect they wanted as well?

Shane Wahl
08-14-2013, 10:18 PM
Pittsburgh should really be the target. They could use him right now.

mudcat14
08-14-2013, 10:57 PM
I really see him going to Beantown for one of their pitching prospects. Napoli is trending downward with similar power numbers to Justin, but strikes out a ton! In a perfect world, we eat the salary and get Owens in return. In reality I think there are two or three slightly lower ranked arms in the Bosox system that make a deal worthwhile, with a smaller cash commitment from our end. Hell, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see us re-sign Morneau in the off-season, even if we deal him now.

ashburyjohn
08-15-2013, 10:07 AM
This means no one was willing to take the risk of the Twins simply saying "You can have him and his salary". It's a bit of a catch 22.

So here's what I somewhat don't get. 29 teams all said no thanks to simply taking Morneau off the Twins' hands and paying the salary. Now, one team is supposed to step forward and offer a prospect in exchange for... Morneau and his salary?

I realize that what has actually just happened was more like brinksmanship among a handful of teams (or just one). Still, it makes me wonder how a post-deadline deal ever comes about. And yet they do, every year.

nicksaviking
08-15-2013, 10:53 AM
Usually these deals involve the seller eating a large chunk of money. I don't believe any recent trades have not. At the very least, the non-claim will show Ryan, that just like every other team, the Twins too will have to eat some cash to move their declining veterans.

diehardtwinsfan
08-15-2013, 11:35 AM
So here's what I somewhat don't get. 29 teams all said no thanks to simply taking Morneau off the Twins' hands and paying the salary. Now, one team is supposed to step forward and offer a prospect in exchange for... Morneau and his salary?

I realize that what has actually just happened was more like brinksmanship among a handful of teams (or just one). Still, it makes me wonder how a post-deadline deal ever comes about. And yet they do, every year.

There's a few things that come to mind. There's a ton of strategy. For one, waiver priority does come into play (I think). If you claim a guy, you lose priority. Second, you cannot claim everyone, because if a bunch of teams decide to give you their guy, you are now potentially on the hook for paying their salary and you have to make room for them on the roster. So it isn't cut and dry. Third, you have blocking strategies and those type of things, especially if you know that he won't be given away. If I know the guy isn't free, I might try to block my opponent who really needs him and what not. Fourth, I think (someone needs to correct me if I'm wrong) you'd need to clear roster space if you get him, and I don't think you can claim a guy and then DFA him.

Where Morneau comes into play is that his overall line is not terribly impressive for the salary. I'm guessing most GMs might not be aware that he's been hitting like the Morneau of old for the last couple of weeks. I'm sure Ryan will be calling Pittsburg, Boston, and New York saying as much. I do think that the Twins will likely be eating some of his salary, and I'm fine with that (not sure Ryan will).

That said, I'd be shocked (but thrilled) if the Twins got a guy like Owings from Boston for Morneau. I suppose technically Boston doesn't need him since they have Bogarts, but I doubt they'd dangle him for Justin, just as I doubt they'd dangle Rayunado, Webster, or Barnes... OK, Barnes maybe given his bad year, but he didn't take well to AA.

PseudoSABR
08-15-2013, 12:19 PM
So here's what I somewhat don't get. 29 teams all said no thanks to simply taking Morneau off the Twins' hands and paying the salary. Teams may have known it wasn't going to be a simple salary dump, and the Twins would just take Morneau back if they didn't get a prospect back they liked.

stringer bell
08-15-2013, 12:22 PM
Usually these deals involve the seller eating a large chunk of money. I don't believe any recent trades have not. At the very least, the non-claim will show Ryan, that just like every other team, the Twins too will have to eat some cash to move their declining veterans.Here's my prediction: With the support of management, Ryan will not trade Morneau unless the acquiring team takes on all of his salary. That is how the Twins roll. I don't like it, but it is not my money. For this reason, I fully expect Justin Morneau to play out the season with the Twins and then leave with no compensation as a free agent.

mike wants wins
08-15-2013, 12:34 PM
Here's my prediction: With the support of management, Ryan will not trade Morneau unless the acquiring team takes on all of his salary. That is how the Twins roll. I don't like it, but it is not my money. For this reason, I fully expect Justin Morneau to play out the season with the Twins and then leave with no compensation as a free agent.

If we knew this is why it happened, it would really bum me out about the future of this team....but we will likely never know why it happens the way it happens, however that is.

ScottyB
08-15-2013, 12:40 PM
Mornreau for Elvis Andrus who just cleared waivers.

drjim
08-15-2013, 12:41 PM
Hypothetically, if the Twins picked up Morneau's contract in full do people actually think he would bring much of a return?

I don't. And unless they are 100% committed to parting ways after the season they might as well hang on to him and determine if he is worth keeping arounf.

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 01:52 PM
Hypothetically, if the Twins picked up Morneau's contract in full do people actually think he would bring much of a return?

I don't. And unless they are 100% committed to parting ways after the season they might as well hang on to him and determine if he is worth keeping arounf.

Drew Butera brought back a decent prospect.
If Drew Butera can bring back a decent prospect, just about anyone CAN.

PseudoSABR
08-15-2013, 01:56 PM
Hypothetically, if the Twins picked up Morneau's contract in full do people actually think he would bring much of a return?

I don't. And unless they are 100% committed to parting ways after the season they might as well hang on to him and determine if he is worth keeping arounf.I think and hope that the Twins maintain a high price for Morneua or simply keep him. They are betting that some team gets desperate enough, which could certainly happen.

diehardtwinsfan
08-15-2013, 02:05 PM
Drew Butera brought back a decent prospect.
If Drew Butera can bring back a decent prospect, just about anyone CAN.

Honestly, that's the type of return I expected Morneau to get. One can only hope that b/c Morneau is much better than Butera that he's return a better prospect.

diehardtwinsfan
08-15-2013, 02:07 PM
Mornreau for Elvis Andrus who just cleared waivers.

Pass. Andrus is worse than Florimon this year and is signed for a loooong time. He's primarily a speed guy, and while he's young, those guys typically don't age well.

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 02:12 PM
Pass. Andrus is worse than Florimon this year and is signed for a loooong time. He's primarily a speed guy, and while he's young, those guys typically don't age well.

What is your criteria for Andrus being worse than Florimon this year? Andrus has the higher OPS and the higher WAR (based on fangraphs, havent looked at BBR).

Andrus is having a down year, but long term he's a much better player than Florimon.

Kwak
08-15-2013, 02:43 PM
Drew Butera brought back a decent prospect.
If Drew Butera can bring back a decent prospect, just about anyone CAN.

Entirely different cases. Morneau is expensive, and has to be an everyday player to justify making the trade. Everybody has a 1B man and can find a fill-in (like the Twins did with Cuddyer) in a pinch. Butera is cheap--barely above minimum salary. Even better, Butera can be kept in the minors until the Dodgers want to call him up. Butera's situation offers substantially more flexibility than Morneau's. This "prospect" the Twins received? I'm guessing the Dodgers were writing him off anyway. Besides, they don't need bargain-basement pitchers anymore.

PseudoSABR
08-15-2013, 02:44 PM
What is your criteria for Andrus being worse than Florimon this year? Andrus has the higher OPS and the higher WAR (based on fangraphs, havent looked at BBR).

Andrus is having a down year, but long term he's a much better player than Florimon.The fact that you can even compare them should tell you enough.

AROG
08-15-2013, 03:01 PM
First, diehardtwinsfan, good stuff, but if the GM's for teams that need a player don't know how Morneau is playing, they don't deserve their jobs.

Second, the Twins don't have to eat all of the contract or none of it. Teams like businesses run off of budgets and projections for the year. They have a certain amount that they budgeted to spend on players. Since they budgeted all of Morneau's contract, eating all but a million dollars of it and trading him from prospects that makes much less money is going to earn them a profit of a million dollars. (The prospect goes into a different budget)

Third, the tricky thing about waiver deals is that you can only trade for players off the 40 man roster or players like Andrus that have cleared waivers. Where the really tricky part comes into play is those prospects being traded for. If I invested $1 million in a signing bonus, more, or close to that amount, I am not going to trade him. I have too much invested to see him come to fruition, now if he is having a down year and I can recuperate some to all of the signing bonus from the new team and I see it as an opportunity to bail on what could pan out to be a bad investment then I jump at it.

In closing, don't get your hopes up on Justin. Although TR has shown the ability to trade players in a fire sale, I don't see them getting rid of Morneau unless they get a really good young player. Believe it or not, Justin is still a draw for ticket prices. Especially since his is hot and has cleared waivers. This may be your last shot to see him play etc, etc. If he doesn't go, then they sell tickets for another month that way.

ScottyB
08-15-2013, 03:17 PM
Pass. Andrus is worse than Florimon this year and is signed for a loooong time. He's primarily a speed guy, and while he's young, those guys typically don't age well.

Obviously I was kidding - the Twinks wouldn't take on a $120M contract.

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 03:22 PM
The fact that you can even compare them should tell you enough.

What exactly should it tell me? You can compare any two players if you want to.

Lets compare them:

Andrus: career .272/.338/.345 (.683) OPS+ 82, 34 SB/11 CS per 162, 14.7 career WAR (avg. ~3 WAR/year), 2 all star appearances, 2nd place AL ROY voting at age 20, currently age 24.

Florimon: career .217/.275/.322 (.597) OPS+ 65, 13 SB/5 CS per 162, 1.0 career WAR (avg. ~1 WAR/year), currently age 26.

You are right, it should not even be a comparison.
The guy is having a down year, it happens. It even happened to the great Joe Mauer.

Andrus is a very good player, still young enough to improve. Florimon is barely above replacement level, and will be 27 in December.

Dman
08-15-2013, 04:09 PM
I would think they would need a pretty good prospect to trade Morneau because they are so stacked in low A and High A where would they find a place to put a marginal prospect. Also we have guys in short season ball that need to move up next year as well. They need something good or it is pointless to trade anyway.

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 04:18 PM
I would think they would need a pretty good prospect to trade Morneau because they are so stacked in low A and High A where would they find a place to put a marginal prospect. Also we have guys in short season ball that need to move up next year as well. They need something good or it is pointless to trade anyway.

I'm guessing you are saying this tongue in cheek, but in case you are not, they have plenty of room to fit any kind of prospect into the organization, even with the great prospects we have down there now.

Dman
08-15-2013, 04:20 PM
Pittsburgh should really be the target. They could use him right now.

Yeah Pittsburgh likes our guys because they fix them and make them All Stars. You would think they could give us something back for Morneau.

Dman
08-15-2013, 04:28 PM
I'm guessing you are saying this tongue in cheek, but in case you are not, they have plenty of room to fit any kind of prospect into the organization, even with the great prospects we have down there now.


I am actually being fairly serious. I realize that they can fit anyone in but if they are a lessor talent than what you have already why potentially block someone else. I am just saying I think they need someone pretty good to make it worthwhile.

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 04:33 PM
I am actually being fairly serious. I realize that they can fit anyone in but if they are a lessor talent than what you have already why potentially block someone else. I am just saying I think they need someone pretty good to make it worthwhile.
The Twins have about 200 players in their organization, of which about 165+ qualify as "prospects" (meaning less than 130 AB's or 50 IP of MLB experience). Any prospect you get back for Morneau, even on the very low side, is going to be in the top 25%, they will not be blocking anyone of significance.
For perspective, the prospect we got back for Butera was immediately slotted into our system as our #13 prospect, which puts him in the top 6 to 7% of our minor league system. Even if we only managed to get back a top 50 prospect for Morneau, that would still put them in the top 1/3 of our system.

mike wants wins
08-15-2013, 05:11 PM
Pay Justin, and get nothing at the end of hte year (other than his services in a lost year), or pay Justin's salary, and get a lottery ticket prospect. For a team looking at 85-90+ losses, for a third year in a row, I'm not sure how that's even two choices....

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 05:17 PM
Pay Justin, and get nothing at the end of hte year (other than his services in a lost year), or pay Justin's salary, and get a lottery ticket prospect. For a team looking at 85-90+ losses, for a third year in a row, I'm not sure how that's even two choices....

The only way it's 2 choices is if Terry is actually considering bringing Morneau back after the season.
If that is the case, then I've lost faith in Terry Ryan.
Justin Morneau is one of my all time favorite Twins, and nothing will change that. But you don't build a roster and an organization based on sentimental feelings. There is absolutely no excuse for a 33 year old, replacement level first baseman to be taking AB's from anyone at this time next year.

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 06:00 PM
My hunch is that Morneau will be traded before tomorrow's game.

Doumit was originally scheduled to be reinstated today, but now they are pushing that back to tomorrow.
They say he's fine, but it's for logistical reasons, that they wan't him to catch a bullpen session first, but didn't have any live arms to throw him one yesterday.

Now, it could just be that they really didn't have any live arms to throw BP yesterday, but an alternate theory is that they plan on trading Morneau in the next 24 hours, and therefore are delaying Doumit's return so that he can be the corresponding move to the 25 man roster.

Brock Beauchamp
08-15-2013, 06:25 PM
Why would Pittsburgh want Morneau so badly? They have Jones, who is pretty much the same guy at this point.

Dman
08-15-2013, 06:46 PM
The Twins have about 200 players in their organization, of which about 165+ qualify as "prospects" (meaning less than 130 AB's or 50 IP of MLB experience). Any prospect you get back for Morneau, even on the very low side, is going to be in the top 25%, they will not be blocking anyone of significance.
For perspective, the prospect we got back for Butera was immediately slotted into our system as our #13 prospect, which puts him in the top 6 to 7% of our minor league system. Even if we only managed to get back a top 50 prospect for Morneau, that would still put them in the top 1/3 of our system.


You schooled me there. Not thinking correctly about it. Too in love with the guys we have I guess. I retract my not well though out post.

diehardtwinsfan
08-15-2013, 08:58 PM
What is your criteria for Andrus being worse than Florimon this year? Andrus has the higher OPS and the higher WAR (based on fangraphs, havent looked at BBR).

Andrus is having a down year, but long term he's a much better player than Florimon.

Yes I'm sorry, he's been about equal. .624 OPS compared to Pedro's .608 and from what I've read, Florimon's defense has been GG worthy and better. We can go year to year with Pedro, but we get Andrus until 2022 for the nice price of 120 million.

As I said before, players with his skill don't age well, and while I see him bouncing back a bit over the next couple of years, this season is going to be more the norm than the exception during that contract.

Pass.

nicksaviking
08-15-2013, 10:03 PM
Why would Pittsburgh want Morneau so badly? They have Jones, who is pretty much the same guy at this point.

They could then stick Jones in RF which is a pretty big hole. The Pirates RFers are currently OPSing .654.

Mr. Brooks
08-15-2013, 10:10 PM
Yes I'm sorry, he's been about equal. .624 OPS compared to Pedro's .608 and from what I've read, Florimon's defense has been GG worthy and better. We can go year to year with Pedro, but we get Andrus until 2022 for the nice price of 120 million.

As I said before, players with his skill don't age well, and while I see him bouncing back a bit over the next couple of years, this season is going to be more the norm than the exception during that contract.

Pass.

Well that is your opinion, I'm not sure why you state it like it's fact.
You speak about him like he's 29 or 30 and facing the downward arc of his career. He's 24 years old, just 1 year older than Aaron Hicks and Alex Meyer, and a year younger than Kyle Gibson.

I'm not saying I'd want to take on Andrus' contract, I'm just saying lets not compare him to Florimon, that is completely unfair. Andrus is the the much better player.
Florimon was in low A at the same age Andrus was having a 2nd place ROY season, and at Andrus current age, Florimon was just earning a promotion to AA.

I see this as nothing but a down year for Andrus, almost every player has had one, and he is still young enough to get better before he starts to decline.
Andrus also gives you GG caliber defense, but adds 30 to 40 steals per season and a .340 OBP.
Andrus has better than a 2:1 K/BB ratio, while Florimon strikes out nearly 4:1 and doesnt steal many bases.
Andrus is the vastly superior player, and while he will be overpaid for a chunk of that contract, that is just how baseball works.
If you want good players, chances are you are going to have to overpay for them.

raindog
08-16-2013, 06:09 AM
Is there a time limit after someone clears waivers for them to be traded? Or can the Twins wait as long as they want?

old nurse
08-16-2013, 06:38 AM
Pay Justin, and get nothing at the end of hte year (other than his services in a lost year), or pay Justin's salary, and get a lottery ticket prospect. For a team looking at 85-90+ losses, for a third year in a row, I'm not sure how that's even two choices....

The lottery ticket you would receive would be a ticket for the daily 3. You beat the odd but won very little. And you paid a few million for the ticket.

drjim
08-16-2013, 07:13 AM
Is there a time limit after someone clears waivers for them to be traded? Or can the Twins wait as long as they want?

No limit. But August 31 is last day a team can add a player and have him eligible for postseason roster.

mike wants wins
08-16-2013, 08:45 AM
The lottery ticket you would receive would be a ticket for the daily 3. You beat the odd but won very little. And you paid a few million for the ticket.

I've already paid the money, that's the point of "sunk cost". The money is already gone, the question is....how do I best use that money? do I pay Justin to play here, or do I pay Justin to play someplace else and get a minor league player in return. Either way, the money is spent. Sunk cost, it's a concept even senior executives in huge companies struggle with. Decades of business school training still hasn't fixed their understanding well enough.

drjim
08-16-2013, 09:53 AM
I've already paid the money, that's the point of "sunk cost". The money is already gone, the question is....how do I best use that money? do I pay Justin to play here, or do I pay Justin to play someplace else and get a minor league player in return. Either way, the money is spent. Sunk cost, it's a concept even senior executives in huge companies struggle with. Decades of business school training still hasn't fixed their understanding well enough.

Yes! Someone finally explained and applied this correctly

I am curious what the return for Morneau would be. I suspect it would be minimal and probably not ultimately worth it.

Mr. Brooks
08-16-2013, 10:11 AM
Yes! Someone finally explained and applied this correctly

I am curious what the return for Morneau would be. I suspect it would be minimal and probably not ultimately worth it.

A side bar to this, how far has Morneau falling that nobody thinks we can as good of a return for him as we got for Drew Butera?

diehardtwinsfan
08-16-2013, 10:50 AM
Well that is your opinion, I'm not sure why you state it like it's fact.
You speak about him like he's 29 or 30 and facing the downward arc of his career. He's 24 years old, just 1 year older than Aaron Hicks and Alex Meyer, and a year younger than Kyle Gibson.

I'm not saying I'd want to take on Andrus' contract, I'm just saying lets not compare him to Florimon, that is completely unfair. Andrus is the the much better player.
Florimon was in low A at the same age Andrus was having a 2nd place ROY season, and at Andrus current age, Florimon was just earning a promotion to AA.

I see this as nothing but a down year for Andrus, almost every player has had one, and he is still young enough to get better before he starts to decline.
Andrus also gives you GG caliber defense, but adds 30 to 40 steals per season and a .340 OBP.
Andrus has better than a 2:1 K/BB ratio, while Florimon strikes out nearly 4:1 and doesnt steal many bases.
Andrus is the vastly superior player, and while he will be overpaid for a chunk of that contract, that is just how baseball works.
If you want good players, chances are you are going to have to overpay for them.

I speak of him as a kid who has spent almost 5 years in the majors now who:
1) Hasn't shown much improvement
2) Has a game based primarily on speed.
3) Is having a bad year when he should be improving.
4) Is really freaking expensive.

If you want any indication as to what Texas thinks, my guess is that they'd love to get rid of him to play Profar over there. But that contract makes him untradable. I get that Florimon and Andrus are not the same player over their careers. That isn't the issue at hand. The issue at hand is that right now, they basically are, and history says Andrus won't age well, especially till 2022 or whenever it is his contract expires.

I would rather Morneau get traded for a clone of the guy that we got for Butera than a guy like Andrus, and unfortuantely, Profar is a pipe dream.

ThePuck
08-16-2013, 10:54 AM
Andrus signed the extension like 4 months ago. If they wanted Profar to play shortstop instead of Andrus, why not just trade Andrus instead of giving him his big payday extension?

ashburyjohn
08-16-2013, 11:36 AM
You schooled me there. Not thinking correctly about it. Too in love with the guys we have I guess. I retract my not well though out post.

Moderator's note: too often the moderators have to speak up when a thread is going sour, and I just want to speak up here to say that I was fairly blown away by this gracious response. And it would not have been possible without the temperate rebuttal to which you responded. Kudos all around. I may hold this instance up as a model for others.

Of course, not every rebuttal is going to convince. But the odds increase, to maybe 5% instead of zero, when you state your case with respect.

Here endeth the sermon. :)

USAFChief
08-16-2013, 11:41 AM
But the odds increase, to maybe 5% instead of zero, when you state your case with respect.
. :)show your work.

ThePuck
08-16-2013, 11:51 AM
Back to the topic, has anyone seen any trade rumors in the last day or so concerning Morny now that he's cleared waivers?

ashburyjohn
08-16-2013, 12:27 PM
Back to the topic, has anyone seen any trade rumors in the last day or so concerning Morny now that he's cleared waivers?

Nope. I've seen a few articles/slideshows that speculate on needs versus prospects to offer, but that's just making stuff up. My impression (can't show my work) is that the Twins typically don't let much information leak out before a trade occurs.

diehardtwinsfan
08-16-2013, 01:06 PM
Nope. I've seen a few articles/slideshows that speculate on needs versus prospects to offer, but that's just making stuff up. My impression (can't show my work) is that the Twins typically don't let much information leak out before a trade occurs.

In other words, keep checking Twins Daily for up to the minute updates.

LaBombo
08-16-2013, 01:19 PM
I've already paid the money, that's the point of "sunk cost". The money is already gone, the question is....how do I best use that money?
This reminds me of another conversation, one that could have gone like this:

http://thefw.com/files/2013/03/City-Slickers.jpg
Bruno Kirby: "Just shut up! He doesn't get it! He'll never get it! It's been 4 hours! The cows understand sunk cost by now! Just forget about it!"

Daniel Stern, to Billy Crystal: "Tell me again why the service clock matters."

Bruno Kirby: "That's it. You're dead!"

In fairness, like you said.... execs who control multi-million dollar budgets still don't get it. Nicely put though.

ThePuck
08-16-2013, 01:40 PM
This reminds me of another conversation, one that could have gone like this:

http://thefw.com/files/2013/03/City-Slickers.jpg
Bruno Kirby: "Just shut up! He doesn't get it! He'll never get it! It's been 4 hours! The cows understand sunk cost by now! Just forget about it!"

Daniel Stern, to Billy Crystal: "Tell me again why the service clock matters."

Bruno Kirby: "That's it. You're dead!"

In fairness, like you said.... execs who control multi-million dollar budgets still don't get it. Nicely put though.

LOVED that movie!

Kwak
08-16-2013, 02:05 PM
There is more to negotiating than "sunk cost". There is also the reputation of "tough negotiator" vs "quick-buck-taker". Consider in the "trade" both sides "gain", but one side "gains" considerably more than the other side. Reference Game Theory, where the result is not zero sum. If the GM is on the "lesser" side, he was out-negotiated and would be perceived as "such". Reference Bill Smith with his Tampa trade followed by the Santana trade. Smith was "out negotiated". Sometimes "no deal" is better for the long-term than "caving-in" to grab a small gain. I don't know what Ryan thinks "is good", but he has had a lot of experience in baseball negotiating, so I can "give him a Pass" if nothing happens. The offer just wasn't "good enough".

LaBombo
08-16-2013, 03:28 PM
I am curious what the return for Morneau would be. I suspect it would be minimal and probably not ultimately worth it.
The Twins got a worthwhile prospect for a backup catcher who may never even suit up for his new franchise's major league club.

Morneau is batting .283/.343/.476 this year against righties after regaining his power stroke, and put up a .290/.371/.531 line against them last year.

In other words, Morneau has mostly been Morneau again against right-handers for going on two years now, and mostly been Butera-esque against lefties.

A contender that's ok with platooning would absolutely value that. Whether a trade happens is hard to tell, but if it doesn't, it won't be because Morneau doesn't still have something to offer.

drjim
08-16-2013, 04:30 PM
The Twins got a worthwhile prospect for a backup catcher who may never even suit up for his new franchise's major league club.

Morneau is batting .283/.343/.476 this year against righties after regaining his power stroke, and put up a .290/.371/.531 line against them last year.

In other words, Morneau has mostly been Morneau again against right-handers for going on two years now, and mostly been Butera-esque against lefties.

A contender that's ok with platooning would absolutely value that. Whether a trade happens is hard to tell, but if it doesn't, it won't be because Morneau doesn't still have something to offer.

I know his performance and I imagine other teams do as well. I just wonder what 6 weeks of that brings back. I don't think it is very much and I don't think Ryan is keen to just dump him for minimal return.

old nurse
08-16-2013, 06:11 PM
I've already paid the money, that's the point of "sunk cost". The money is already gone, the question is....how do I best use that money? do I pay Justin to play here, or do I pay Justin to play someplace else and get a minor league player in return. Either way, the money is spent. Sunk cost, it's a concept even senior executives in huge companies struggle with. Decades of business school training still hasn't fixed their understanding well enough.

I get that concept of sunk cost.
So far in this trading period only 2 position players were traded for. The return was a utility player and a low level prospect. The prospect does not show up on any lists of prospects within the Yankee system that I could find. A place called the scouting book had him as the 748 best prospect.
The return on trades for position players does not bode well for return of prospects to the Twins if Morneau is traded.
So then there would be return on investment.

Mr. Brooks
08-16-2013, 06:20 PM
I get that concept of sunk cost.
So far in this trading period only 2 position players were traded for. The return was a utility player and a low level prospect. The prospect does not show up on any lists of prospects within the Yankee system that I could find. A place called the scouting book had him as the 748 best prospect.
The return on trades for position players does not bode well for return of prospects to the Twins if Morneau is traded.
So then there would be return on investment.

Drew Butera does not count as a position player?

diehardtwinsfan
08-16-2013, 09:05 PM
Drew Butera does not count as a position player?

He has one of the best ERAs in Twins history, so no.

diehardtwinsfan
08-16-2013, 09:06 PM
Here endeth the sermon. :)

Just so you are aware, Olivia is a much better preacher than you... Not that I remember what you said. :)

old nurse
08-17-2013, 07:36 AM
Drew Butera does not count as a position player?

meant to say trade for batter, sorry bout that

mike wants wins
08-17-2013, 09:36 AM
It is interesting how few trades are happening. Personally, I think teams are now over valuing cheap prospects. There is great value in the present, the known, and I bbelieve that MLB teams are putting too much stock in an unknown future. A team like Pittsburgh should be dealing .....not their two stud pitchers, but other prospects, IMO.

mike wants wins
08-17-2013, 09:37 AM
Love the game theory post.....not sure i agree with your conclusion, but it is a good post.

drjim
08-17-2013, 12:39 PM
It is interesting how few trades are happening. Personally, I think teams are now over valuing cheap prospects. There is great value in the present, the known, and I bbelieve that MLB teams are putting too much stock in an unknown future. A team like Pittsburgh should be dealing .....not their two stud pitchers, but other prospects, IMO.

Completely agree with this in theory. But take Pittsburgh for example, is it even clear that Morneau provides an upgrade to their team? Much less one that they would want to give up value for?

Alex
08-17-2013, 12:54 PM
It is interesting how few trades are happening. Personally, I think teams are now over valuing cheap prospects. There is great value in the present, the known, and I bbelieve that MLB teams are putting too much stock in an unknown future. A team like Pittsburgh should be dealing .....not their two stud pitchers, but other prospects, IMO.

I think it's partially this, but I think it's also that teams realize that the value of a guy they'll only have for a couple of months at most is less valuable than the chance of decent prospect succeeding. I think that's a recent paradigm shift (last few years) one the Twins used to be good at exploiting but other teams have gotten smarter, and I think the Twins are struggling to adjust.

Reginald Maudling's Shin
08-18-2013, 10:45 AM
A Pittsburgh columnist calls for Pirates to trade for Morneau (h/t to Thrylos for tweeting this link this morning)

Kovacevic: Let's see Pirates' bats do their part | TribLIVE (http://triblive.com/sports/dejankovacevic/dejancolumns/4525387-74/pirates-runs-innings?showmobile=false#axzz2cKtbYqAN)

mike wants wins
08-18-2013, 03:01 PM
Completely agree with this in theory. But take Pittsburgh for example, is it even clear that Morneau provides an upgrade to their team? Much less one that they would want to give up value for?

i never mentioned Morneau as a target.....

LaBombo
08-18-2013, 07:23 PM
Completely agree with this in theory. But take Pittsburgh for example, is it even clear that Morneau provides an upgrade to their team? Much less one that they would want to give up value for?
The Pirates platoon first and right. The left-handed components are Garrett Jones and Travis Snider respectively.

Vs. RHP:

Snider- .231/.295/.344
Jones- .257/.311/.443
Morneau .281/.341/.473

Replacing Snider's bat with Morneau's by putting Jones in right would net nearly a 200 point OPS increase for that spot in the lineup. Can't say for sure that they'd give us anything significant for him, but he is absolutely an upgrade.