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View Full Version : Could an argument be made that Sano is the best prospect in all of baseball?



SpiritofVodkaDave
08-12-2013, 10:34 AM
A month or so ago it was pretty much unanimous amongst...well...everyone that Buxton was the top prospect in all of baseball. While his bat has cooled off a bit at A+ (Still a respectable .800 OPS or so) it should be noted that after a poor start at AA Sano is absolutely destroying the league and should end up with an OPS above 1.000 in both leagues and close to 40 combined HR.

Additionally he is getting some rave reviews for his defense at third base.

So with that said, is Sano now the #1 prospect in baseball? He obviously doesn't have the tools Buxton has, but you can't deny the way he has been destroying the baseball.

diehardtwinsfan
08-12-2013, 10:48 AM
Yes, the argument can be made. Buxton is doing pretty well in A+ as a 19 year old, where as Sano, if this hot streak continues, will be destroying AA as a 20 year old. That said, Buxton is likely a GG defender at a premium spot to go with it. Given that both are top 5 guys, I'd say it's really just semantics.

Steve Lein
08-12-2013, 10:54 AM
You can certainly make an "argument" for anyone who is getting ranked as high as he is on all the lists out there.

I would guess it comes down to what you like about players in general, or how highly you regard one particular tool or set of tools.

In the case of the Twins 2 guys high on those lists, Buxton obviously has the better overall toolbox as a speedy CF, but Sano has the most sexy tool of them all (power).

It's a good problem to have!

jm3319
08-12-2013, 10:57 AM
Not to be rude, but who cares? It's just a number next to their name on a list somewhere. Both are very good players. Being ranked 1-2, 2-1, 9-10, or 99-100 doesn't really change anything about them or their futures anyway. As the previous poster said it depends on whether you like raw power and adequate defense, or a player who has a chance to be above average at 5 skills.

Boom Boom
08-12-2013, 11:05 AM
It's Buxton, obviously. FSN has never shown a minor league game to showcase Sano.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-12-2013, 11:37 AM
Not to be rude, but who cares?

Of course it doesn't really matter...but then again one could argue that 99% of topics on this site don't "matter" either. I just thought it would be nice to focus on some positives instead of "payroll topic part 10,000"

And frankly, I think people do care quite a bit about prospect rankings, baseball america/fangraphs/espn etc would cease to do them if it didn't get people excited.

mike wants wins
08-12-2013, 12:08 PM
Hard to say, but he's in the conversation for number 1. That's the part that I like. It's nice to have this "problem", of having to decide which is better, than some other problems.

ashburyjohn
08-12-2013, 12:34 PM
Who do you think will have the higher peak salary of the two? :)

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-12-2013, 12:49 PM
There's a very good chance that they (Buxton and Sano) will be ranked 1-2. I think Sano could be baseball's best, but I think Buxton is a special type of talent that can't be eclipsed. I mean the guy has gotten 70+s for all 5 tools from some scouts.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-12-2013, 01:18 PM
Who do you think will have the higher peak salary of the two? :)

I could see Sano with a higher peak salary, but Buxton with a larger total contract.

cmb0252
08-12-2013, 01:25 PM
You could easily make the argument that Sano or a handful of other prospects for that matter are just as good or better than Buxton. Buxton, Sano, Bradley, Russell, Correa, Lindor, Bogarets and Taveras all have legit #1 arguments. All of these players not only have elite tools but have performed like elite prospects. Buxton just has the best set of tools out of the bunch.

old nurse
08-12-2013, 01:40 PM
I could see Sano with a higher peak salary, but Buxton with a larger total contract.

The power hitting could last longer than the speed. Buxton could cave a career similar to Tori Hunter. Sano could have career like Mike Schmidt. Schmidt was the highest paid player for 4 years. Sano would end up with the largest total contract if they both reach their peak potential.

ericchri
08-12-2013, 01:42 PM
Kinda feels like we're arguing over the AL MVP...

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-12-2013, 02:35 PM
The power hitting could last longer than the speed. Buxton could cave a career similar to Tori Hunter. Sano could have career like Mike Schmidt. Schmidt was the highest paid player for 4 years. Sano would end up with the largest total contract if they both reach their peak potential.
Hunter is a bad comp for Buxton. But I get your point.

Buxton could have a career similar to Trout, who I am pretty confident will be one of the two or three highest paid players within the next 5 years.

Winston Smith
08-12-2013, 03:06 PM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bsACzG-HpFA/UdPUwnAQRxI/AAAAAAAAAf4/dKFR0yO7XnU/s302/images+(1).jpg

nicksaviking
08-12-2013, 03:26 PM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bsACzG-HpFA/UdPUwnAQRxI/AAAAAAAAAf4/dKFR0yO7XnU/s302/images+(1).jpg

I'd probably trade Buxton and Sano for a baby dragon.

mike wants wins
08-12-2013, 03:41 PM
I'd probably trade Buxton and Sano for a baby dragon.

Agreed, I'd trade the entire Twins organization for a real, live, dragon.

Winston Smith
08-12-2013, 04:03 PM
Didn't you guys watch Jurassic Park?

ThePuck
08-12-2013, 04:14 PM
Not to be rude, but who cares? It's just a number next to their name on a list somewhere. Both are very good players. Being ranked 1-2, 2-1, 9-10, or 99-100 doesn't really change anything about them or their futures anyway. As the previous poster said it depends on whether you like raw power and adequate defense, or a player who has a chance to be above average at 5 skills.

You cared enough to come on here and make a post. You knew what the thread was about. If you didn't care, why not just avoid the thread altogether?

maxisagod
08-12-2013, 07:00 PM
I'm going with you can make a case, but won't end up that way in the rankings this winter. A lot of prospect list tend to favor multiple tools so that will always be the tie breaker. Also if we're going with Baseball America they have loved Buxton from the start, their ranking of him in the top ten last year was seen as agressive now it seems like they just really did a good job scouting him. I'm guessing they'll double down on Buxton and rank him #1.

IdahoPilgrim
08-12-2013, 07:10 PM
I think it all depends on which philosophy you use to compile a prospect list. Is it just based on the potential reward, or is risk also factored in?

Based purely on reward, I still would go with Buxton - he has the highest overall potential. But he is also still in A-ball and, while holding his own, is not knocking down the door yet to be advanced (although I, like many others, expect he will do so next year). Thus there is a higher risk that something will happen and he might plateau before reaching the majors (think Benson). I don't expect that, but that is always a risk for a prospect still in Single-A.

If you factor in risk, i.e. who is closer to being ready and already shown he can compete at a higher level, I go with Sano - after a slow start (not unexpected) he is starting to crank it up at Double-A and there is I think little doubt now that he will be in a Twins uniform soon.

Thrylos
08-12-2013, 07:17 PM
The power hitting could last longer than the speed. Buxton could cave a career similar to Tori Hunter. Sano could have career like Mike Schmidt. Schmidt was the highest paid player for 4 years. Sano would end up with the largest total contract if they both reach their peak potential.

Torii Hunter is a bad comparable to Buxton's ceiling. Try Ricky Henderson for size...

Sano's ceiling is higher than Mike Schmidt. Let the kid play and he can break Killebrew's records.

That said, here are 2 words to land us all back in reality: Bo Jackson

jokin
08-12-2013, 09:25 PM
I think it all depends on which philosophy you use to compile a prospect list. Is it just based on the potential reward, or is risk also factored in?

Based purely on reward, I still would go with Buxton - he has the highest overall potential. But he is also still in A-ball and, while holding his own, is not knocking down the door yet to be advanced (although I, like many others, expect he will do so next year). Thus there is a higher risk that something will happen and he might plateau before reaching the majors (think Benson). I don't expect that, but that is always a risk for a prospect still in Single-A.

If you factor in risk, i.e. who is closer to being ready and already shown he can compete at a higher level, I go with Sano - after a slow start (not unexpected) he is starting to crank it up at Double-A and there is I think little doubt now that he will be in a Twins uniform soon.

The only similarities that should ever be drawn between Buxton and Benson are the first and last letters- B___on.

Seriously, many of us around here still don't get it, Buxton will be knocking down the major league door by next July- and will likely be the Twins best player within 1-1.5 years of that last call-up when he finally sticks with the Twins for good.

jokin
08-12-2013, 09:28 PM
It's Buxton, obviously. FSN has never shown a minor league game to showcase Sano.

Au contrere, Boom Boom!

Check your schedules Twinsfans. Sano will be on FSN next week (I believe) on the Twins off-day (Monday?).

jokin
08-12-2013, 09:32 PM
Buxton just has the best set of tools out of the bunch.

Which at this point in time, should be the essential fact that easily wins the argument. All the rest is on the come. Watch Buxton take it to a whole new level next spring to confirm the argument about #1. This kid is the deal.

jokin
08-12-2013, 09:45 PM
Hunter is a bad comp for Buxton. But I get your point.

Buxton could have a career similar to Trout, who I am pretty confident will be one of the two or three highest paid players within the next 5 years.

Trout and maybe Harper seem like the only active player comps. Buxton's defense will end up being superior to both. Torrii Hunter? He makes the Twins HOF, but not the Angels HOF (great career, but really, he's a whole level or two lower than what Buxton can potentially bring to the table), Torrii had one 30HR year, never stole more than 23 bases, never had an OPS above .859 in a single season or an OPS+ above 129 (Trout has already surpassed that number twice and Harper once). I expect Buxton will have at least, more than one 30-30 season and multiple seasons above .900 OPS and OPS+ above 150.

old nurse
08-12-2013, 10:30 PM
Torii Hunter is a bad comparable to Buxton's ceiling. Try Ricky Henderson for size...

Sano's ceiling is higher than Mike Schmidt. Let the kid play and he can break Killebrew's records.

That said, here are 2 words to land us all back in reality: Bo Jackson

Schmidt made himself into a gold glove player, Killebrew did not. Schmidt hit 25 less home runs but has a higher OPS and OPS+
Bo Jackson? altered reality

drjim
08-12-2013, 10:40 PM
We can only hope Buxton doesn't destroy his hip as an NFL running back.

cmb0252
08-12-2013, 11:04 PM
We can only hope Buxton doesn't destroy his hip as an NFL running back.

Haha, nailed it. I cracked up.

Monkeypaws
08-12-2013, 11:27 PM
Haha, nailed it. I cracked up.

Yeah, my thought as well - bloody football players don't count.

Sano is ridiculously good - Buxton is too. What's the problem here? :cool:

diehardtwinsfan
08-13-2013, 08:18 AM
Agreed, I'd trade the entire Twins organization for a real, live, dragon.

Didn't work out so well for the folks in Aastapor and Mereen.

nicksaviking
08-13-2013, 08:51 AM
Torii Hunter is a bad comparable to Buxton's ceiling. Try Ricky Henderson for size...

Sano's ceiling is higher than Mike Schmidt. Let the kid play and he can break Killebrew's records.

That said, here are 2 words to land us all back in reality: Bo Jackson


Sano's ceiling is higher than the greatest 3B to ever play the game? Even on the off chance that statement were true, it seems much to presumptuous and karma defying to ever be spoken.

Steve Lein
08-13-2013, 10:10 AM
I expect Buxton will have at least, more than one 30-30 season and multiple seasons above .900 OPS and OPS+ above 150.

I don't think he'll quite have Mike Trout power (30 HR's consistently), but could have a few seasons there. His Slugging Percentage will be a number driven more by his speed (doubles, triples) not his raw power (HR's). I'd like to see him join the 20/20/20 club (doubles, triples, HR's), which I think he could do. Or even the 20/20/20/20 club, adding in stolen bases.

20?20?20 club - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20%E2%80%9320%E2%80%9320_club)

Pretty good company in that club.

diehardtwinsfan
08-13-2013, 11:03 AM
I don't think he'll quite have Mike Trout power (30 HR's consistently), but could have a few seasons there. His Slugging Percentage will be a number driven more by his speed (doubles, triples) not his raw power (HR's). I'd like to see him join the 20/20/20 club (doubles, triples, HR's), which I think he could do. Or even the 20/20/20/20 club, adding in stolen bases.

20?20?20 club - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20%E2%80%9320%E2%80%9320_club)

Pretty good company in that club.

20 triples?

I see him more of a 30/40 doubles and 20 HR kind of guy. Great production coming out of CF, even before you account the GG defense to go with it.

Don't Feed the Greed Guy
08-13-2013, 11:32 AM
20 triples?

I see him more of a 30/40 doubles and 20 HR kind of guy. Great production coming out of CF, even before you account the GG defense to go with it.

All I hope is that someday Buxton leads the league in on-base percentage and runs scored, and Sano fills the leaderboard with RBI's. Then we can argue about who's the best.

Steve Lein
08-13-2013, 01:39 PM
Yep, 20 triples. Might get that many in the Minors this year. And he has more triples than doubles playing in the bigger FSL stadiums so far.

Siehbiscuit
08-13-2013, 02:38 PM
Not to get the buggy too far out in front of the horse, but I think a comparable for Buxton is Ken Griffey Jr. Buxton will soon get his man muscle and his power will start to develop a la Griffey. He may never be of the 40-50 homer seasons like The Kid, but a slash line of .300/.375/.575 for his career seems within reason. At his peak I think his speed will make him a doubles machine. My next closest comparison is actually Kirby Puckett (with a totally different body). May not hit for as high of an average, but more speed.

Badsmerf
08-13-2013, 03:01 PM
Wow you guys are really hopeful of Buxton's power. I don't think I've ever seen anyone say he has that much power potential. Like Steve, I'm in the camp of 20 HR, 30 2b and 20 3b. Add 50 SB and you got yourself a pretty potent offensive threat. His .404 OBP in 2013 is what is really impressive right now.

jokin
08-13-2013, 03:13 PM
Yep, 20 triples. Might get that many in the Minors this year. And he has more triples than doubles playing in the bigger FSL stadiums so far.

Why would anyone doubt this? All one needs to do is look at the video that was posted and discussed on TD where he cruises into third base in about 10 seconds. (Bo Jackson was supposedly the fastest ever on a triple at around 11.5 seconds).

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6257-byron-buxton-trout-timeline-10.html

jokin
08-13-2013, 03:16 PM
Wow you guys are really hopeful of Buxton's power. I don't think I've ever seen anyone say he has that much power potential. Like Steve, I'm in the camp of 20 HR, 30 2b and 20 3b. Add 50 SB and you got yourself a pretty potent offensive threat. His .404 OBP in 2013 is what is really impressive right now.

Actually, he has been cited by many for growing power potential, his power grade has consistently been revised upward. He's also been compared to Willie Mays, who also grew into his full power potential.

2012 MLB Draft Prospects: Byron Buxton's Potential Outweighs the Risk | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1208237-2012-mlb-draft-prospects-byron-buxtons-potential-outweighs-the-risk)

TheLeviathan
08-13-2013, 07:44 PM
Didn't work out so well for the folks in Aastapor and Mereen.

Well yeah, never trust a woman. Duh.

gunnarthor
08-13-2013, 09:36 PM
You can certainly make the argument but I think Buxton is still number 1. After tonight, he's got his avg up to .300, his bb/k rate is really impressive and he has, if nothing else, gap power to go along with those tools. But it's a great debate to have.