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SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2013, 05:57 AM
Since the trade deadline 3 HR 1.200 OPS

Badsmerf
08-07-2013, 07:25 AM
I hope the Twins put him on waivers instantly. If he would have done this a month ago I doubt he'd still be a Twin. The better he plays the more likely he gets traded.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2013, 07:27 AM
I hope the Twins put him on waivers instantly. If he would have done this a month ago I doubt he'd still be a Twin. The better he plays the more likely he gets traded.
Very unlikely he makes it to someone like Texas or Yankees, someone else would block em.

Perhaps the best bet at this point is for him to catch on fire the rest of the way, then offer him a qualifying offer? Let him either walk and get a pick or sign him to a 2 year deal.

Either way, very nice to see Morneau doing well again one way or another!

E. Andrew
08-07-2013, 07:38 AM
I think I recall hearing that a qualifying offer would be $14.5 mil or something, way too much, unfortunately. He'd take that in a heartbeat. Someone correct me if the number's off.

Oldgoat_MN
08-07-2013, 08:07 AM
I am a big Morneau fan, but a qualifying offer would be too much. I believe that a qualifying offer last year was $13.5 million or so.

If he has a QO I think there is no chance that someone signs him.
Well, unless he can maintain a 1.200 OPS for the rest of the season.

USAFChief
08-07-2013, 08:13 AM
Whether or not Morneau should be the Twins 1st baseman in 2014 is a very valid baseball question, for many reasons.

However, money isn't one of those reasons.

SweetOne69
08-07-2013, 08:50 AM
A QO is way too much for Morneau. He would take that in a heartbeat.

People figure that Morneau will get a 1 year incentive laden deal with a $1-2M base. At best he would get a Willingham type deal (3yr/$21M).

mike wants wins
08-07-2013, 08:58 AM
I am not yet a re-believer....but I'm glad he's hitting.

Brandon
08-07-2013, 09:01 AM
I guess Morneau was bothered by the trade talks last month and now that is behind him for the most part he is relaxing and playing up to his max abilities again.

mike wants wins
08-07-2013, 09:14 AM
After does not imply because......

jorgenswest
08-07-2013, 09:47 AM
At midseason when he had 3 home runs his hr/fb rate was at a very low 3%. That wasn't sustainable. It had to go up. It was written that he would have double digit home runs in the second half without the need to make changes to approach. It was unfortunate for the Twins and Morneau that he had the bad luck of the 3%, but his power production in the second half is closer to his true ability.

ThePuck
08-07-2013, 09:59 AM
After does not imply because......

Post hoc ergo propter hoc? :-)

ashburyjohn
08-07-2013, 10:18 AM
After the trade deadline, veteran righthanders are required to throw fastballs with no movement to aging lefty sluggers. It's the Law.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2013, 10:23 AM
Yeah....QO is probably not going to happen unless he suddenly turns it into the Morneau of old...regardless, if it seems like he can post a .780-.800 OPS I think the Twins should certainly bring him back for another 1-2 years. He isn't going to cost a fortune, and I am guessing he would be willing to give some sort of discount as well.

One thing is for sure, they will have to wait for him to hit FA since they will be asking for a significant cut in his 13mil salary. I am thinking 2 years 12 mil with 4 mil in incentives each year? That way if he stays healthy he gets back to 10 mil a year salary.

stringer bell
08-07-2013, 10:35 AM
A blip doesn't mean the guy is going to become 2010 Justin Morneau again. If anyone claims Morneau, the Twins can send him to the "blocker". If someone wants Justin, I think they can have him.

stringer bell
08-07-2013, 10:38 AM
Whether or not Morneau should be the Twins 1st baseman in 2014 is a very valid baseball question, for many reasons.

However, money isn't one of those reasons.I'll post my reply again (strange computer). I would revise your comment to say that "money shouldn't be one of those reasons", but I am pretty sure that it will be.

terencemann
08-09-2013, 04:06 PM
I don't think money will be an issue because I don't think a lot of teams will have a lot of interest in Morneau. "Since the trade deadline" isn't really a signficant amount of games. Anybody can get hot for a week. I really don't like the idea of the Twins bringing him back but I don't know if they're going to have a lot of options, either. There's a pretty poor crop of first basemen coming up this off-season.

Kelly Johnson might be a decent acquisition on a short term deal if they want to bolster their infield. He has more home runs this season than any Twin and that's tough to do when you play half your games in Tampa.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-09-2013, 04:15 PM
Another bomb. It's pretty clear Justin is swinging the bat much better these days.

Brock Beauchamp
08-09-2013, 04:16 PM
I love seeing him play well but come on... It would have been nice to get some value for him in July. Sheesh.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-09-2013, 04:30 PM
I love seeing him play well but come on... It would have been nice to get some value for him in July. Sheesh.

Meh, I'd rather they just sign him this off-season and keep him around for another two years until someone else is ready to take over 1st base...(Vargas? Walker?)

Brock Beauchamp
08-09-2013, 04:33 PM
Meh, I'd rather they just sign him this off-season and keep him around for another two years until someone else is ready to take over 1st base...(Vargas? Walker?)

At this point, that'd probably be the smart move. The guy played too badly for too long to get anything of value for him at this point.

beckmt
08-09-2013, 05:06 PM
Agreed, I do not think any of the Twins upper minor league 1B players will be better than Morneau. It all depends on the price. 5 - 6 million a year with some incentives it about all I can see the Twins offering. I would rather see the Twins put the extra money in pitching.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-09-2013, 06:20 PM
Agreed, I do not think any of the Twins upper minor league 1B players will be better than Morneau. It all depends on the price. 5 - 6 million a year with some incentives it about all I can see the Twins offering. I would rather see the Twins put the extra money in pitching.
They have at least 40-50mil to spend this offseason, if it costs 7-8 mil to keep morneau do it.

USAFChief
08-09-2013, 07:22 PM
Meh, I'd rather they just sign him this off-season and keep him around for another two years until someone else is ready to take over 1st base...(Vargas? Walker?)
I've been saying the same thing for a couple months. My guess has always been Morneau is likely to out produce anyone else at first base for the next couple years.

Winston Smith
08-09-2013, 07:42 PM
The last 3 years have been so much fun they should really try and keep the gang together for another run at 90 loses.

raindog
08-09-2013, 08:02 PM
I love Morneau, but I really think it's time to move on. It's great that he's tearing the cover off the ball now. That isn't likely to last. The Twins can find production from first base pretty easily. Maybe Colabello, maybe Parmalee. I hope the Twins to the smart thing and let Morneau go.

Joe A. Preusser
08-09-2013, 10:18 PM
Meh, I'd rather they just sign him this off-season and keep him around for another two years until someone else is ready to take over 1st base...(Vargas? Walker?)

Maybe Sano, although I hope he sticks at 3rd. 3 years, 20M sounds about right to keep him around as a leader for the next wave. He can DH if someone else absolutely HAS to play 1st.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
08-10-2013, 01:54 AM
I definitely believe that if Morneau keeps up with his current power streak we should definitely resign him, but if he regresses back its time to move on. Im expecting a regress back but hoping for the power to stick, I couldnt imagine Morneau being in another uniform.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-10-2013, 06:40 AM
I love Morneau, but I really think it's time to move on. It's great that he's tearing the cover off the ball now. That isn't likely to last. The Twins can find production from first base pretty easily. Maybe Colabello, maybe Parmalee. I hope the Twins to the smart thing and let Morneau go.
I like Colabello and his story, but in no way should the Twins even entertain the idea of him being an every day player for a "good" team, Colabello should be the 25th guy on a roster, not anything much more.

Parm has shown exactly ZERO in a good amount of time in the majors to indicate he is ready to take over 1st base on a year to year basis.
Sign Morneau for 2-3 years, if he produces and someone presses the issue (Vargas? Plouffe?) then you can always trade him ala Dougie Baseball.

It would SUCK to see Morneau go, and frankly with as young as this team will be, it would be nice to keep at least one veteran not named Mauer around.

Major Leauge Ready
08-10-2013, 07:01 AM
We just don't have anyone close. The FO seems convinced Sano will stick at third at least for the early part of his career. I hope Morneau plays well for the remainder of the season and gives the Twins a reason to resign him but I don't think more than two years is a good idea. 3 years with a team option for a 3rd year. That way we still might be able to get something from him down the road if he somehow maintains his performance level. That short porch in Yankee stadium would fit nicely.

jorgenswest
08-10-2013, 09:20 AM
Is it reasonable to assume that the power Morneau has shown recently is real? Probably. No one sustains the rate he has hit at the trade deadline but he probably has 20 home run power. At midseason, he had 3 home runs and a 3% HR/FB rate. That wasnt sustainable either. It was easy to predict he would he double digit home runs in the second half. I think it is possible to project 2 WAR next year.

At 33, I would want him on a one year contract. He isn't worth a qualifying offer, but I think it is a better option that 3 years at 7-8 million. I would do the qualifying offer.

Every team is going to have an influx of TV money for next season. The Twins have to prepare themselves for the changing market. The cost of 1 WAR in free agency will go up. Could it go as high as 7 million? That level and 2 WAR will be the break even point for Morneau at a qualifying offer. In next year's dollars, Morneau might project to be worth 10-12 million. I think that is close enough to make a qualifying offer. I don't think it is the certainty he will take it. If he does, the one year risk is a small.

diehardtwinsfan
08-10-2013, 10:04 AM
Morneau may want a 1 year deal as well. If he thinks that he can have a bounce back season in 2014, it makes sense to do that to parlay it into a 3 year deal or something... I tend to agree on the qualified offer, though offering Morneau 14M for the right to not having to negotiate with other teams wont' exactly hinder the team financially.

Brandon
08-10-2013, 10:41 AM
I'm ok with a 1 year contract cause if Sano comes up and takes over 3rd that means Plouffe will compete for time at 1B and DH with Morneau and Doumit until someone is traded or released. (Doumit being the one released if he hits next year like this one). I don't think they need to guarantee Morneau too much as no one really wanted him at the trade deadline this year. I would think a 5 million base with the chance to earn 12-14 million based on production would get the job done. If he hits like last year 7-8 million, like 2009 12-14 million if he hits like 2011 or the first half of this year 5 million and on to the next 1B.

matthew0211
08-10-2013, 11:24 AM
I don't have a problem bringing Morneau back, but someone would need to sit him down and gently tell him he's not an everyday player anymore. His L/R splits (817 OPS LH, 557 RH in 2013, 902/569 in 2012) are telling of the type of player he's become. I'd have him back on a team-friendly 2-3 year deal, but keep him on the bench vs lefties. Perhaps he could platoon with Plouffe at 1B when Sano shows up sometime next year.

I

matthew0211
08-10-2013, 11:25 AM
I don't have a problem bringing Morneau back, but someone would need to sit him down and gently tell him he's not an everyday player anymore. His L/R splits (.817 OPS against RH, .557 against LH in 2013, .902/.569 in 2012) are telling of the type of player he's become. I'd have him back on a team-friendly 2-3 year deal, but keep him on the bench vs lefties. Perhaps he could platoon with Plouffe at 1B when Sano shows up sometime next year.

If someone wants to sign him as an everyday 1B, the Twins should say "Thanks, Justin," and move on.

Alex
08-10-2013, 11:31 AM
It's a tough situation the Twins are in. They have essentially three aging corner/DH players who are aging and not hitting all that well (Willingham, Doumit, and Morneau). This logjam has occasionally blocked some young (Arcia) and/or interesting players (Colabello) from moving up and getting regular time or at least decent looks. Unfortunately, Doumit and Willingham are back next year for sure. Signing Morneau again puts us right back in the same spot the team was in this year, with no flexibility at any of those spots and Arcia up full time.

Personally, I'd like to see Parmelee get one more shot (he's only had a season's worth of MLB PAs) and would like to see a bit more of Colabello (not saying full time but he's been adjusting well to big league pitching) and that's pretty much impossible with Morneau.

The other thing that isn't being discussed here is that while we all like Morneau, there are likely to be cheaper options at his position that can be signed and fill in and aren't the risk that he is. A multi-year deal would be a mistake. You just can't have a player that has been this inconsistent locking up a spot on your roster multi-years. It's a problem that's shown itself with the Doumit extension (signed while playing really well), not trading Willingham (at peak value), and giving two years to Correia.

Oxtung
08-10-2013, 11:38 AM
I like Colabello and his story, but in no way should the Twins even entertain the idea of him being an every day player for a "good" team, Colabello should be the 25th guy on a roster, not anything much more.

Parm has shown exactly ZERO in a good amount of time in the majors to indicate he is ready to take over 1st base on a year to year basis.
Sign Morneau for 2-3 years, if he produces and someone presses the issue (Vargas? Plouffe?) then you can always trade him ala Dougie Baseball.

It would SUCK to see Morneau go, and frankly with as young as this team will be, it would be nice to keep at least one veteran not named Mauer around.

The Twins couldn't trade Morneau this year. Why would they be able to trade him away in the future, especially if he is signed to a long term deal?

I would argue that Morneau hasn't done anything since his concussion to show he can handle 1st base. He has been below average all 3 years and 2 of those were significantly below average.

Oxtung
08-10-2013, 11:38 AM
At this point, that'd probably be the smart move. The guy played too badly for too long to get anything of value for him at this point.

If Morneau has played badly for a long time why is resigning him the smart move?

TKGuy
08-10-2013, 01:15 PM
Whether or not Morneau should be the Twins 1st baseman in 2014 is a very valid baseball question, for many reasons.

However, money isn't one of those reasons.

I agree wholeheartedly that money should not be the issue. I would lean towards giving him a qualifying offer and then try to sign him to a two year deal

Brock Beauchamp
08-10-2013, 01:25 PM
If Morneau has played badly for a long time why is resigning him the smart move?

Because he'd be cheap, could rebound, and it's not as if the Twins have anyone else ready to play first.

Brandon
08-10-2013, 01:58 PM
I think signing him to a low cost deal makes sense too as like Brock states he could rebound, we could platoon him with Colabello or Plouffe if need be, or if he slumps we could just give up on him and let Parmelee take over till its time to give up on him too. though i am beginning to think Parmelee isn't going to make it here. If a log jam is created then Doumit or whoever is slumping can ride the bench and players can rotate through the DH spot. Signing Morneau to a 1 or 2 year deal with a low base isnt going to hurt the club. the real question that can have an affect is who will the Twins get to fill out the rotation with next season.

The prospect that may get blocked is Rosario when he is ready if Dozier continues to improve. not an interchangeable Corner OF, 1B, DH.

Kwak
08-10-2013, 02:55 PM
My, my the support to throw MMs at Morneau for 9 games! Apparently some have forgotten a few things: 1) Morneau can sign with any other team after he declares he is a free agent--perhap playing on winner for more money would be of interest to Justin? 2) If Morneau shows "he's back" in August/September, there will be competition for him 3) If he "isn't back", why on earth sign him? He's damaged goods and selling his wares on past glory--which is gone (see premise) 4) a small sample size (August/September) is really too short to make this large of a commitment 5) and the larger issue of using his salary to acquire free pitching will be more useful 6) if he is extended, he becomes a 5 and 10 guy and trading him becomes very difficult 7) extending Morneau sends a message of "you don't have to produce as long as we like you".

Nah, waive him, trade him if possible,--but say "Good-Bye".

jorgenswest
08-10-2013, 03:34 PM
The 10-5 is a good point.

howeda7
08-10-2013, 04:12 PM
I'd to 2/$12 to 2/$16 with incentives if he makes 500 and 600 PA's. I would not go 3 years under any circumstances. He's still one fastball to the head away from retirement.

Badsmerf
08-10-2013, 04:26 PM
The more he keeps producing, the more likely he is traded IMO. He was most likely put on waivers as soon as the deadline was past. Thus, he could have already cleared waivers and is free for the Twins to trade. I hope they took my advice and did just that.

If he isn't traded, and goes through FA. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Twins make some kind of offer to him. Parmelee hasn't done much with his chances and Plouffe is on a horrible slide right now. The Twins could use a semblance of a bat in the line-up. His OPS is creeping toward .800 and 20 HR this season looks very possible.

jorgenswest
08-10-2013, 04:27 PM
The opportunity for a bargain contract probably ended when the Twins didn't listen to his agent requests for an extension in July.

Keeping him probably means showing interest by making a qualifying offer.

Meanwhile I am glad they didn't trade him. The entertainment he has provided this weekend will likely surpass anything the marginal prospect they may have acquired the deadline.

His trade value has to be up. Would he still go unclaimed?

howeda7
08-10-2013, 04:49 PM
They probably can't get him for the same price, but I sense he'd still be open to a reasonable 2-year deal. If it's true that the qualifying offer is $13-14 million, there's no way they can do that. His chances of being a Twin in 2014 are actually probably better if they trade him than if he stays and reaches free agency.

stringer bell
08-10-2013, 05:02 PM
Any deal that Morneau would agree to with the Twins would be way, way more than he's going to get on the open market. I can't remember whether it is 75 or 80% of his current deal, but that would be in the $10M range per season. As far as waiver claims, any team that claims him takes on his contract which was, I'm sure, why teams weren't more serious about him before the non-waiver deadline. Obviously, Morneau is swinging better and some team that is really in a battle to make the playoffs may want to take on a hot hand for a month or so.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-10-2013, 06:38 PM
The opportunity for a bargain contract probably ended when the Twins didn't listen to his agent requests for an extension in July.

Keeping him probably means showing interest by making a qualifying offer.

Meanwhile I am glad they didn't trade him. The entertainment he has provided this weekend will likely surpass anything the marginal prospect they may have acquired the deadline.

His trade value has to be up. Would he still go unclaimed?
They didnt do an extension because they would have had to pay him close to 10
Mil a year due to the whole 70% rule

Badsmerf
08-10-2013, 07:29 PM
The opportunity for a bargain contract probably ended when the Twins didn't listen to his agent requests for an extension in July.

Keeping him probably means showing interest by making a qualifying offer.

Meanwhile I am glad they didn't trade him. The entertainment he has provided this weekend will likely surpass anything the marginal prospect they may have acquired the deadline.

His trade value has to be up. Would he still go unclaimed?
No team in their right mind would have offered him an extension. He and his agent have to know this. His actual market price will dictate his contract. I hope he has a good enough relationship with the Twins to keep them in the loop. The last time this happened was Torri, and the Twins threw a low-ball offer at him and he didn't even look back on his was to LA.

He could have been put on waivers as soon as the deadline passed. If the Twins had any sense, he would have pushed him threw right away. No reason to wait for him to go a tear and eventually get blocked from another team claiming him.

RodneyKline
08-10-2013, 07:42 PM
One of two guys that can hit on this team and people want to dump him. So crazy! Sign him to a three year deal and build around the M&M boys with the prospects in the wings. Normally, 2 or 3 of these prospects will end up being the real deal but everyone seems to forget this and they have everyone being MVPs in 2015. Plus none of the prospects are going to play 1B.

mike wants wins
08-10-2013, 08:24 PM
One of two guys that can hit on this team and people want to dump him. So crazy! Sign him to a three year deal and build around the M&M boys with the prospects in the wings. Normally, 2 or 3 of these prospects will end up being the real deal but everyone seems to forget this and they have everyone being MVPs in 2015. Plus none of the prospects are going to play 1B.
I love Morneau, but he has been bad for some time now. Maybe some kind of switch was thrown, and now he can hit again, but does that seem likely?

Halsey Hall
08-10-2013, 10:22 PM
Yes, very likely. Again I'll say it, he'll be here next year.

raindog
08-10-2013, 11:30 PM
I'm kind of shocked that so many people want to resign him. 1B is the absolute easiest position to fill. Why fill it with an overpriced veteran on the down-slope of his career? A platoon of Parmalee and Collabello/Plouffe will provide more production. I would almost bet my life on that. Plus, Parmalee still has the chance to be an everyday player. I would love to see him get consistent playing time in the majors.

Major Leauge Ready
08-11-2013, 06:56 AM
I love Morneau, but he has been bad for some time now. Maybe some kind of switch was thrown, and now he can hit again, but does that seem likely?

No, it really does not seem likely. We are going to just have to see how he performs for the rest of the season. I am on the fence on this one until we see what he can do over the course of the last two months. The rest of the season is still a small sample size but I think the only way this conversation makes any sense is in the context of him finishing very strong over the final 60 games.

What if he goes 300 / 370 / 500 over the final 60 games w/12 HRs which over the course of the season would be a 32HR pace? I don't see another team giving him 3 years even if he finishes this strong with the possible exception of the Yankees. And, we don't have an in-house solution. What should we do if this unlikely scenario unfolds?

jimbo92107
08-11-2013, 09:43 AM
I love Morneau, but he has been bad for some time now. Maybe some kind of switch was thrown, and now he can hit again, but does that seem likely?

Roy Smalley put it pretty well up in the booth about ten days ago. Morneau has been gradually recovering from three separate injuries over the past couple years. Concussion, neck, and wrist. All of them have negatively affected his swing and his ability to read and react to major league pitches.

Now, finally, after all this time, it looks like Morneau's swing is getting back to a fair approximation of the prime cut he used to have. Smalley said it looked like Morneau's swing was getting close. Looks like he was right.

If Morneau continues his hot August, this discussion will become much more interesting. What should the Twins do if Morneau starts bashing home runs like he did when he won the MVP? To me, he still doesn't look like he's swinging the bat with the ferocity of those days, but he could still jack a lot of dingers the way he's swinging right now.

mike wants wins
08-11-2013, 10:23 AM
I will say this, if they won't sign a legit FA, they may as well sign Morneau. It's not like he's blocking someone right now.

Oxtung
08-11-2013, 11:29 AM
Morneau went on 2 similar hot streaks in 2012.



Dates

PA's

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR



Apr. 6-June 9

178

.320

.513

.833

10



June 19-Sept 11

265

.374

.508

.882

9




He looked like he was going to be a good player going into 2013 and yet this year his OPS has hovered around .730 for much of the season.

drjim
08-11-2013, 12:36 PM
I will say this, if they won't sign a legit FA, they may as well sign Morneau. It's not like he's blocking someone right now.

One thing to consider is that there really isn't a legit FA 1B next year (or many difference making positional player FAs total). Kendrys Morales is probably the best and he really isn't even that good. Morneau might be second.

Oxtung
08-11-2013, 12:52 PM
One thing to consider is that there really isn't a legit FA 1B next year (or many difference making positional player FAs total). Kendrys Morales is probably the best and he really isn't even that good. Morneau might be second.

Mike Napoli, Adam Lind (has an option), James Loney and Mike Morse have all hit better than Morneau this season, including his recent HR binge.

Morneau is still 20th out of 25 in OPS for 1B with >350 PA. This has been stated many times but 1B is one of the easiest positions to fill. There are better players out there to fill the spot if Ryan chooses to avail himself of the free agent market.

drjim
08-11-2013, 01:13 PM
Mike Napoli, Adam Lind (has an option), James Loney and Mike Morse have all hit better than Morneau this season, including his recent HR binge.

Morneau is still 20th out of 25 in OPS for 1B with >350 PA. This has been stated many times but 1B is one of the easiest positions to fill. There are better players out there to fill the spot if Ryan chooses to avail himself of the free agent market.

I won't argue those names, but I also don't think it is a sure thing any of them would be clearly better than Morneau next year. There just isn't that much out there.

mike wants wins
08-11-2013, 02:54 PM
One thing to consider is that there really isn't a legit FA 1B next year (or many difference making positional player FAs total). Kendrys Morales is probably the best and he really isn't even that good. Morneau might be second.

I meant FA in general, any position......like, pitching, for example. Unless you want to count on this year's rotation, and Meyer and May.....

Oxtung
08-11-2013, 02:58 PM
I won't argue those names, but I also don't think it is a sure thing any of them would be clearly better than Morneau next year. There just isn't that much out there.

I think this is very similar to the FA pitcher discussions we've had (I'm not looking to restart them I am just drawing a parallel in thought process). You seem to only want players that are guaranteed to be upgrades. I look at it more from a probability perspective. If there is a 60% chance the FA is an upgrade (and he isn't blocking a prospect, the contract is reasonable, yada yada) then the move should be made. To me baseball is too unpredictable to guarantee anything.

PseudoSABR
08-11-2013, 03:13 PM
I look at it more from a probability perspectiveI'm sure jim does too (not that I should speak for him). But really, we all use our own personal probablistic model, which we base on all kinds of information (statistical and otherwise), which, again, we all weigh differently. For some of us, investing in debatably above average options isn't worth the risk.