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Oxtung
08-03-2013, 01:32 PM
Wolfson has linked the Twins to 26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero. He apparently defected in January of this year but has been unsignable so far because US Office of Foreign Assets Control has yet to "unblock" him. In Cuba Guerrero OPS'd .997 or better each year between 2009-2011. There are supposedly three teams interested in him; the Twins, Dodgers and an unnamed third suitor.


We like him," said Twins VP Mike Radcliff. "We're still watching him."

I have been very critical of the Twins off season approach to free agency but that would turn around in a hurry if the Twins signed a legitimate future piece like Guerrero is believed to be. There is some question if he can stick at SS in the majors but considering our MI situation currently combined with our history I would love it if the Twins took a risk like this. We aren't exactly overflowing with talent at 2B at this moment. Rosario looks very nice but he is still just a prospect and Dozier while looking competent is certainly not setting the world afire. I would be ecstatic if this deal was completed!

Three Teams Vying For Cuban Shortstop Guerrero: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/three-teams-vying-for-cuban-shortstop-guerrero.html)

P.S. Off topic a bit but how do you make a link appear as a word. So if I typed "you can view the full story here.", how do you make "here" a link?

Oxtung
08-03-2013, 01:34 PM
Also there is a Baseball America scouting report on him but it require insider access. If somebody wanted to hit the high points for those of us who are too cheap or poor that would be great!

Alexander Guerrero Scouting Report - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/alexander-guerrero-scouting-report/)

Fatt Crapps
08-03-2013, 01:45 PM
Complete Scouting Profile on Cuban Middle Infielder Alexander Guerrero | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1714474-complete-scouting-profile-on-cuban-middle-infielder-alexander-guerrero)

Jeremy Nygaard
08-03-2013, 01:56 PM
Raw power, big swing likely to struggle with breaking stuff. Unlikely to remain at SS.

Mr. Brooks
08-03-2013, 02:15 PM
Terry Ryan won't spend what it takes to sign a legit Cuban.

cmb0252
08-03-2013, 02:30 PM
I'm not a fan. If he could actually play SS I would want the Twins to go for him. Dozier will do just fine bridging the 2B spot till Rosario is ready next year.

Oldgoat_MN
08-03-2013, 02:32 PM
P.S. Off topic a bit but how do you make a link appear as a word. So if I typed "you can view the full story here.", how do you make "here" a link?

Write a word like HERE (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pinto-001jos). Highlight the word and click on the Link above (to the right of the emoticons) and enter the URL.

Then people can read all about the Baseball-Reference data on Josmil Pinto.

Oxtung
08-03-2013, 02:34 PM
Write a word like HERE (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pinto-001jos). Highlight the word and click on the Link above (to the right of the emoticons).
Then people can read all about the Baseball-Reference data on Josmil Pinto.

thanks

Mr. Brooks
08-03-2013, 02:42 PM
I'm not a fan. If he could actually play SS I would want the Twins to go for him. Dozier will do just fine bridging the 2B spot till Rosario is ready next year.

Rosario is a nice prospect, but he is hardly a can't miss prospect.
You can never have too many good prospects to throw at a position. Proclaiming 2B solved for the next decade would be a mistake, IMO.

Oxtung
08-03-2013, 02:50 PM
I'm not a fan. If he could actually play SS I would want the Twins to go for him. Dozier will do just fine bridging the 2B spot till Rosario is ready next year.

As Brooks stated above there is nothing guaranteeing Rosario's success. However, if the Twins did sign Guerrero and then Rosario came up and tore it up, isn't that a good problem? Perhaps one of them can fill a hole elsewhere on the roster or if both are quality players. Or one can get moved for a missing piece or more prospects. If on the other hand Rosario fails then you still have a shot with Guerrero or vice versa. There doesn't seem to be a lot of downside to signing him, at the worst the Twins lose out on some cash but, unless you truly believe the Twins will splurge in the near future, that isn't a big deal (well maybe if your last name is Pohlad....)

darin617
08-03-2013, 03:33 PM
Just spend the money and quit being so cheap. With Morneau, Pelfrey, and Carrol(bought out),the Twins will have a payroll a little over $60M. So much for those good old days when Target Field opened and the Twins had $100M+ payroll.

cmb0252
08-03-2013, 03:36 PM
Rosario is a nice prospect, but he is hardly a can't miss prospect.
You can never have too many good prospects to throw at a position. Proclaiming 2B solved for the next decade would be a mistake, IMO.

I never claimed he will be our 2B for the next decade. I just don't see the value of throwing $30+ million on a 26 year old 2B who hasn't played in a game in a year and a half. Maybe I'm jaded by the Nishi signing but I'm just not a fan of this guy.

Mr. Brooks
08-03-2013, 03:46 PM
I never claimed he will be our 2B for the next decade. I just don't see the value of throwing $30+ million on a 26 year old 2B who hasn't played in a game in a year and a half. Maybe I'm jaded by the Nishi signing but I'm just not a fan of this guy.

We can't hit the "Cuban lottery" if we don't play it.
In order to have a chance to get ourselves a Chapman, Cespedes, or Puig, we are going to have to be willing to spend big money on a completely unproven commodity.
If you are fine completely ignoring an avenue that has proven capable of providing legit superstar talent, that is fine, but I'm not.
I'm with Ruesse, I want a Cuban!!

ThePuck
08-03-2013, 03:50 PM
Just spend the money and quit being so cheap. With Morneau, Pelfrey, and Carrol(bought out),the Twins will have a payroll a little over $60M. So much for those good old days when Target Field opened and the Twins had $100M+ payroll.

Don't forget Blackburn's contract ends too...so Morny's 14M, Pelfrey's 4M, Blackburn's 5.5M and Carroll's 3.5M. 27M gone. That puts us around 55M.

Monkeypaws
08-03-2013, 04:58 PM
Don't forget Blackburn's contract ends too...so Morny's 14M, Pelfrey's 4M, Blackburn's 5.5M and Carroll's 3.5M. 27M gone. That puts us around 55M.

Wow, it's like a trip in the way-back machine - I'm suddenly hungry for a Dome dog.

All the more incredible when about 40% of that goes to a single individual.

Winston Smith
08-03-2013, 05:24 PM
http://img0.etsystatic.com/000/0/5130828/il_fullxfull.92804080.jpg (http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=lODecF7nagx_eM&tbnid=1xrWLbCTpaYVAM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.etsy.com%2Flisting%2F31631169 %2Ffat-chance&ei=D4P9Ue7aNZL68QTCvoHwCw&bvm=bv.50165853,d.eWU&psig=AFQjCNGaaNYIZ8vJ_y2FX4T5QN6tvEal2A&ust=1375654987963260)

Boone
08-03-2013, 05:47 PM
I know people will criticize Ryan for not shelling out big bucks to sign this guy but I don't think signing him makes much sense because it doesn't fit with the timeline of our prospects.

Here are the ages of the Twins top prospects in 4 years:
Buxton-23, Sano 24, Rosario 25, Stewart 22, Meyer 27, Berrios 23, Hicks 27, Arcia 26, Gibson 29, May 27, Kepler 24, Polanco 24, Harrison 24, Santana 26, etc.

In other words, the Twins have a ton of young talent that has yet to reach their prime (with the exception of Gibson). Guerrero, on the other hand, will be 30 and reaching the downturn of his career. What's the point of shelling out big bucks for a big risk (it's tough to scout Cubans) for a player who will be in his prime when the Twins are rebuilding. It's important to remember that rebuilding through the minors seems to be the way to go (see: Giants, Rangers, Pirates, Yanks of 90s etc. as opposed to the current Angels and Yankees).

As for the Twins being "cheap" right now, if that's what it takes to lock up Buxton, Sano, and co. to longterm deals before they hit their prime, that's fine with me.

Willihammer
08-03-2013, 06:14 PM
Raw power, big swing likely to struggle with breaking stuff. Unlikely to remain at SS.

Why, because of the swing? How's his glove?

ThePuck
08-03-2013, 06:19 PM
As for the Twins being "cheap" right now, if that's what it takes to lock up Buxton, Sano, and co. to longterm deals before they hit their prime, that's fine with me.

Do you understand how far down the road those contracts will be due? Sano and Buxton won't even be arbitration eligible till, at the very earliest, 2018...and 2018 is if they get promoted as early as mid-next season, which would be super-fast for Buxton. 2018 would also be Mauer's last year in his contract.

On top of that, think about all the payroll coming off in the next couple years...and the extra 25M we're going to get because of the MLB TV contract. There is no spending now that will affect our ability to lock up ANY of the prospects we're hoping become worth a big contract.

howeda7
08-03-2013, 08:46 PM
If he can stick at SS they should do it. Even if he can't, they need to start spending money. The attendance has been resilient thus far, but if they lose another 90 next year with a $65 million payroll, it will be a ghost town.

John Bonnes
08-03-2013, 09:43 PM
I was excited to see them chasing a shortstop, period. But if he can't stay there, I'm just as happy to roll with Dozier and Rosario. In fact, I found myself wondering again tonight if they can move Dozier back to shortstop if Rosario forces his way up here.

Zephrin
08-03-2013, 10:16 PM
Just spend the money and quit being so cheap. With Morneau, Pelfrey, and Carrol(bought out),the Twins will have a payroll a little over $60M. So much for those good old days when Target Field opened and the Twins had $100M+ payroll.

Aren't we passed the whole Payroll = success delusion? SF, ChiSox, ChiCubs, Philly, DC, NYY, Toronto, and LAA all have payrolls over $100M - some significantly so - and have very little chance of sniffing the post season this year. Tampa, Pitt and Oak all started the season in the bottom 5 in payroll, and Bal and Cle also at least started below $100M. All 5 of those teams have at least realistic shots at the post season. If the Twins had added 2 Aces and a Bat this off-season they would have a payroll around $120 and probably be on pace for 80-85 wins. Is that good use of money?

nicksaviking
08-03-2013, 10:34 PM
I was excited to see them chasing a shortstop, period. But if he can't stay there, I'm just as happy to roll with Dozier and Rosario. In fact, I found myself wondering again tonight if they can move Dozier back to shortstop if Rosario forces his way up here.

I agree that SS is what they need to aim for. I have a feeling, unfortunately, that his adaquacy at the position is not something that will be able to be accurately judged until he is actually playing organized ball, and he won't be doing that until he signs a contract.

I think if a club thinks there is a reasonable chance he sticks, you're going to need to pay him like there is a 100% chance and I hope the Twins are willing to do so. I

think there are likely plenty of guys who have been moved from SS over the years due to percieved weaknesses when in fact they likely could have adaquately performed at the postion. In fact, I always thought that had JJ Hardy been in the Twins orgainzation, he would have been moved to 3B long before he made the majors. I think his size, lack of speed and percieved lack of range would have caused the move long ago.

nicksaviking
08-03-2013, 10:37 PM
Aren't we passed the whole Payroll = success delusion? SF, ChiSox, ChiCubs, Philly, DC, NYY, Toronto, and LAA all have payrolls over $100M - some significantly so - and have very little chance of sniffing the post season this year. Tampa, Pitt and Oak all started the season in the bottom 5 in payroll, and Bal and Cle also at least started below $100M. All 5 of those teams have at least realistic shots at the post season. If the Twins had added 2 Aces and a Bat this off-season they would have a payroll around $120 and probably be on pace for 80-85 wins. Is that good use of money?

Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

Zephrin
08-03-2013, 10:50 PM
Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

My argument is that the stars clearly had not aligned for this year. Frankly, the goal is to win championships. Even if they sank another $50-60M into this team I don't think that would have happened, and then we would be stuck with long-term contracts for players that didn't get us there. That doesn't make sense, and you can't tell me that fans would be rushing back in droves to see an 80-85 win team.

Now, should they be putting increased funds into the system to sign prospects if they aren't spending at the big league level? Absolutely. But We've seen the Twins hit in the Int'l market regularly of late with Sano, Kepler, Polanco, and possibly Minier, to name a few. If the Twins don't sign this guy should we not give them the benefit of the doubt from a talent standpoint, even if you are leery of their financial practices?

Oxtung
08-03-2013, 10:55 PM
My argument is that the stars clearly had not aligned for this year. Frankly, the goal is to win championships. Even if they sank another $50-60M into this team I don't think that would have happened, and then we would be stuck with long-term contracts for players that didn't get us there. That doesn't make sense, and you can't tell me that fans would be rushing back in droves to see an 80-85 win team.

Now, should they be putting increased funds into the system to sign prospects if they aren't spending at the big league level? Absolutely. But We've seen the Twins hit in the Int'l market regularly of late with Sano, Kepler, Polanco, and possibly Minier, to name a few. If the Twins don't sign this guy should we not give them the benefit of the doubt from a talent standpoint, even if you are leery of their financial practices?

Two things. First, 85 wins and the Twins would be a contender in the central, so yes, I believe the fans would be there in droves.

Second, you can no longer pump money into prospects anymore. Everything is capped. The only place you can freely spend is in Free Agency. Since the Twins will have $40-80 million in payroll flexibility and the only place to spend it is in free agency and the Twins have huge holes that could use upgrading....well you can see why people are upset.

The Wise One
08-03-2013, 11:09 PM
Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

Do people not read what Darrin was responding to? The answer to the question is talent wins. The hard part is assembling the talent. Regardless, the size of the payroll matters didlysquat. It iswhat you sign and for how long. There are still only 25 roster spots.2 pieces of dead wood can hurt the roster. Don't believe me? Use the search and type incatcher and Drew. The key on the free agency bit is to figure out which players are going to decline later rather than sooner.

Zephrin
08-03-2013, 11:14 PM
Two things. First, 85 wins and the Twins would be a contender in the central, so yes, I believe the fans would be there in droves.

Second, you can no longer pump money into prospects anymore. Everything is capped. The only place you can freely spend is in Free Agency. Since the Twins will have $40-80 million in payroll flexibility and the only place to spend it is in free agency and the Twins have huge holes that could use upgrading....well you can see why people are upset.

Seems to me, the Twins can't win. When they do spend money (Mauer, Morneau) half the comments are about how overpaid they are and what big albatross contracts they have. Out the other side of their mouths they want the team to spend more. (The biggest complaint being not re-signing Santana, who clearly did not deliver over his next contract.) When they have a solid team that makes the playoffs more years than not, people complain that they can't get over the hump. But when they get to the point that what they have isn't working and they scrap it for "Operation 2015" they get criticized just as much. At the end of the day, only winning it all satisfies. You can't make a realistic argument that they were going to win it all this year regardless of what they did last winter.

Oxtung
08-03-2013, 11:47 PM
Seems to me, the Twins can't win. When they do spend money (Mauer, Morneau) half the comments are about how overpaid they are and what big albatross contracts they have. Out the other side of their mouths they want the team to spend more. (The biggest complaint being not re-signing Santana, who clearly did not deliver over his next contract.)
Please point out where someone has said both those things on this forum. I can't think of an example. TBH I can only think of perhaps 2 posters that think Mauer's contract is holding us back. For myself you're barking up the wrong tree. I think both the Morneau and Mauer contracts were both good contracts. Hell I even like that they went out and tried for a home run with Nishioka. They failed, but I applaud them for trying to find a long term solution at SS.

When they have a solid team that makes the playoffs more years than not, people complain that they can't get over the hump. But when they get to the point that what they have isn't working and they scrap it for "Operation 2015" they get criticized just as much. At the end of the day, only winning it all satisfies. You can't make a realistic argument that they were going to win it all this year regardless of what they did last winter.

If the Twins shouldn't sign anyone in FA because they don't have the talent to win the WS and they can't win the WS because they don't have the talent, how do you break that loop? There are only 3 paths to increasing talent. Draft, international signings and free agency. Seems to me the Twins are cutting of their nose to spite their face. There is literally no draw back to signing FA's right now. Even if they fail spectacularly the Twins still will have tens of millions to throw at the problem the next year.

nicksaviking
08-03-2013, 11:57 PM
Do people not read what Darrin was responding to? The answer to the question is talent wins. The hard part is assembling the talent. Regardless, the size of the payroll matters didlysquat. It iswhat you sign and for how long. There are still only 25 roster spots.2 pieces of dead wood can hurt the roster. Don't believe me? Use the search and type incatcher and Drew. The key on the free agency bit is to figure out which players are going to decline later rather than sooner.

I don't think I understand what you are trying to say, it seems like every sentence in this paragraph is a contradiction to the previous one. Is your final arguement trying to say the reason the Twins haven't been winning was not because of payroll but because of Drew Butera?

Zephrin
08-03-2013, 11:59 PM
Just read "Embracing the Suck," which I missed prior to it becoming featured on this site a few minutes ago. Summarizes my basic position fairly eloquently. Twins have been (and need to) focus on Draft and Int'l market. FAs are nice supplements for a team that is close. This team is not close.

nicksaviking
08-04-2013, 12:14 AM
When they have a solid team that makes the playoffs more years than not, people complain that they can't get over the hump. But when they get to the point that what they have isn't working and they scrap it for "Operation 2015" they get criticized just as much. At the end of the day, only winning it all satisfies. You can't make a realistic argument that they were going to win it all this year regardless of what they did last winter.

But why would you assume any free agents won't be part of "Operation 2015?" You really wan't to rely on Joe Mauer and 24 24-year-olds to win the World Series? That's not a winning formula, that's a recipe for disaster. You can't rely on prospects alone, the 1987 and 1991 teams sure didn't, though no one ever accuse Andy McPhail of being passive.

Additionally, the issue with Santana was not failing to resign him, it was the bizare decision to only extend the 24-year-old Cy Young Award winning lefty but only buy out one free agent year. Why Santana didn't get a six-year extension is beyond explanation.

The Wise One
08-04-2013, 01:32 AM
I don't think I understand what you are trying to say, it seems like every sentence in this paragraph is a contradiction to the previous one. Is your final arguement trying to say the reason the Twins haven't been winning was not because of payroll but because of Drew Butera?

Lets try this again. Spending money guarantees nothing. Darrin can point out the teams that have not won with spending money to prove that point. He did not say in there that a team should not spend money. You can point out all the teams that have won by spending large sums of money. It means you can win, doesn't mean you will win by spending a lot of money. The ability to assess talent will win. The ability to judge how well players will play in their"decline" years will continue the winning.
If you wish to extrapolate that I said the team didn't win because of Drew Butera I am at a loss for words. "2 pieces of dead wood can hurt the roster" should be fairly clear. I guess I was very wrong. That I used only ONE example from a collection of bad players, you go where you did with it. Do I have to go through the entire roster to satisfy you?
The Dodgers had no choice but to use taking on salary to improve, they have a poor farm system. No assets to trade to improve.

old nurse
08-04-2013, 06:14 AM
Two things. First, 85 wins and the Twins would be a contender in the central, so yes, I believe the fans would be there in droves.

Second, you can no longer pump money into prospects anymore. Everything is capped. The only place you can freely spend is in Free Agency. Since the Twins will have $40-80 million in payroll flexibility and the only place to spend it is in free agency and the Twins have huge holes that could use upgrading....well you can see why people are upset.

Detroit is on pace for a 94 win season. How is finishing 9 games back contending?

mike wants wins
08-04-2013, 09:19 AM
Not spending money also does not guarantee wins. If you have money, and leave it on the table, are you reall using every opportunity to get better? Does anyone believe Ryan would have signed Morris to that huge contract? This isn't about the Pohlads, this is about Ryan not being willing to do what it takes. Feel free to disagree, but offer some examples where a Ryan led team spent resources on the present. Cutting two outfielders, and signing two cheaper ones does not count. Since none of those savings were reinvested in the team.

here is a secret, apparently. If you sign a free agent for more than 1 year, he can maybe help the young guys when they come up. And, the As signed a Cuban for a lot of money, even they went for it recently.

old nurse
08-04-2013, 11:56 AM
Not spending money also does not guarantee wins. If you have money, and leave it on the table, are you reall using every opportunity to get better? Does anyone believe Ryan would have signed Morris to that huge contract? This isn't about the Pohlads, this is about Ryan not being willing to do what it takes. Feel free to disagree, but offer some examples where a Ryan led team spent resources on the present. Cutting two outfielders, and signing two cheaper ones does not count. Since none of those savings were reinvested in the team.

here is a secret, apparently. If you sign a free agent for more than 1 year, he can maybe help the young guys when they come up. And, the As signed a Cuban for a lot of money, even they went for it recently.

If Ryan spends money and buys free agents that play poorly he is ripped. Your post is filled with nothing but maybes, the simple argument is maybe not. Maybe your own players take a step forward in development. Maybe Parmelee hits at a rate 90% of what he did last year in the minors. Maybe Willingham is healthy two years in a row. Maybe Diamond and Worley steps up their games. Maybe Hendricks can pitch like he did late last year against Detroit.
Bottom line is the threads on free agent pitching was last month. Plenty of bickering. No proof of anything positive one way or the other except in the poster's mind. You can say Ryan does not want to overpay but look at Correia's salary history. He probably got a million a year more than he should have based on past contracts. Ryan thought he could get a pretty darn good pitcher for the money he had. They guessed really wrong on what the market for players would be. They guessed wrong on players willing to come here.

mike wants wins
08-04-2013, 12:44 PM
Or, they didn't offer enough, and it wasn't about guessing wrong.

cmb0252
08-04-2013, 01:02 PM
Do people even want this guy for his ability or just because they want Ryan to spend money? No one is really making the argument that we should sign him because of X tool or that they think he will be Y type of player. If you want him just because other Cubans have been good and because Ryan has money that seems short sited. If you have actually read his scouting reports and like him as a player that's a different thing. I just don't see much to get excited about but maybe that's just me.

Jim H
08-04-2013, 01:38 PM
Do people even want this guy for his ability or just because they want Ryan to spend money? No one is really making the argument that we should sign him because of X tool or that they think he will be Y type of player. If you want him just because other Cubans have been good and because Ryan has money that seems short sited. If you have actually read his scouting reports and like him as a player that's a different thing. I just don't see much to get excited about but maybe that's just me.

I agree with this. Wanting Ryan to spend money just because everyone believes we have it and should spend it, doesn't make much sense to me either. Now, if you believe this guy will be a large upgrade over what the Twins have at shortstop or some other position we are short of, well then I am all for it. I really think that the focus needs to be pitching, and maybe short term help at one position or another. We don't know what some of the high ceiling prospects are really going to do, but I think the Twins are committed to their prospects as they should be.

Spending money on free agents can certainly help a team win. There are numerous examples of this, but most of those spending sprees were shortterm fixes. Even the Yankees best years just happened to coincide when their core was homegrown and in their prime(Jeter, Posada, Williams, Soriano, Riveria etc). I am happy to watch Ryan build a core for the future. I hope he will spend the money when the right moments are there, but I am not going to complain about not spending on marginal upgrades.

notoriousgod71
08-04-2013, 01:49 PM
What's the harm in signing him? There's not one legitimate SS prospect in the entire system.

cmb0252
08-04-2013, 02:06 PM
What's the harm in signing him? There's not one legitimate SS prospect in the entire system.

Have you even read his scouting reports? Not a single one that I have read suggests he will stick at SS. All point to a move to 2B.

Badsmerf
08-04-2013, 02:56 PM
I can live with an average to slightly below average SS that can OPS .800. Average range and arm strength aren't a problem if he is efficient. Errors would be the main concern for me. I haven't been able to see any errors recorded but I'm sure they are somewhere.

I would only imagine that Ryan would be more careful about signing an unkown at SS after the Nishioka debacle. The Twins have the money to make this happen without it hurting too bad if it doesn't work out. SS has been a position they haven't been able to fill adequately for a long time. Getting a guy that might be the solution would be exciting.

jorgenswest
08-04-2013, 04:36 PM
He will be 27 next year. He is too old to let develop in the minors.

The Twins need to decide if Florimon is the solution for the next few years. If not, Guerrero is a worthwhile risk. It is a risk they should take if they are willing to give him a starting job next year.

This is a much wiser use of the free agent market for a team that should start rebuilding as opposed to signing a decline phase player.

Florimon or Guerrero. That is the real decision Ryan needs to make with the help of the scouting department. If a position change to 2B or corner OF is necessary, Guerrero isn't nearly as valuable to the Twins or anyone else.

diehardtwinsfan
08-04-2013, 05:44 PM
Couple of things to comment here:

7/32 is a pretty reasonable price for this kid. It comes out to less than 5M a year. The Twins have the financial ability over the next 7 years (given the kids coming up) to absorb this contract and not hurt them competitively. What they don't have over the next 7 years is the financial ability to absorb multiple bad contracts like this. That, to me, is the dilemma. It isn't my money, but with no obvious SS prospect in the high minors to complement the next wave, taking a risk like this certainly makes sense. He's the right age and could immediately start at SS. He'd be locked up at a reasonable price throughout his prime.

Couple of other things. His bat certainly looks like it will play in the middle infield. I'd give him every opportunity to stick at SS because it looks like this team has 3 guys that could all be above avg 2B now in Dozier, Plouffe, and Rosario. I'd be OK moving Dozier or Plouffe back to short at one point, though I get the distinct impression that this particular ship has sailed. This kid could be another clone of these guys, where the defense is questionable but the bat will play.

I'd probably go hard after him... That's me.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-04-2013, 06:37 PM
We need a possible shortstop for the future, but this guy isn't it. The Twins should, however, be aggressive when it comes to getting a shortstop. Even if it takes the money Guerrero will command. That's really the point both sides are trying to make. I'll use Nishi as an example of a foreign SS. I don't fault the Twins for actually spending money on Nishioka, I'm mad that the scouting department actually thought he would be good. Although, would I try it again if they liked another? You bet. The Twins actually went out and took a risk signing Nishioka and they got killed for it. Now they're too timid to do anything when it's absolutely necessary to get out of sucking.When it comes to money, why not risk it? If the Twins are going to save $5million they have zero chance of that available money bettering the team. Spending it, while potentially dangerous, at least provides some chance of creating a more successful team.

MichiganTwins
08-04-2013, 07:32 PM
What has been the opinion of Danny Santana? I know he has lots of errors but can someone say more about his growth or lack thereof?

Mr. Brooks
08-04-2013, 07:42 PM
I know people will criticize Ryan for not shelling out big bucks to sign this guy but I don't think signing him makes much sense because it doesn't fit with the timeline of our prospects.

Here are the ages of the Twins top prospects in 4 years:
Buxton-23, Sano 24, Rosario 25, Stewart 22, Meyer 27, Berrios 23, Hicks 27, Arcia 26, Gibson 29, May 27, Kepler 24, Polanco 24, Harrison 24, Santana 26, etc.

In other words, the Twins have a ton of young talent that has yet to reach their prime (with the exception of Gibson). Guerrero, on the other hand, will be 30 and reaching the downturn of his career. What's the point of shelling out big bucks for a big risk (it's tough to scout Cubans) for a player who will be in his prime when the Twins are rebuilding. It's important to remember that rebuilding through the minors seems to be the way to go (see: Giants, Rangers, Pirates, Yanks of 90s etc. as opposed to the current Angels and Yankees).

As for the Twins being "cheap" right now, if that's what it takes to lock up Buxton, Sano, and co. to longterm deals before they hit their prime, that's fine with me.

There are plenty of players all over MLB who are 30 years old and still producing. One quick example would be Joe Mauer.
You don't win with a roster made up exclusively of kids. It has to be a mix of kids, players right in their prime, and crafty veterans. Every team you mention has that mix, ESPECIALLY those Yankee clubs of the 90's, they were full of players 30 y.o.+.

kab21
08-04-2013, 08:50 PM
I never claimed he will be our 2B for the next decade. I just don't see the value of throwing $30+ million on a 26 year old 2B who hasn't played in a game in a year and a half. Maybe I'm jaded by the Nishi signing but I'm just not a fan of this guy.

We agree on many things but this is a terrible analysis. I don't care if Guerrero can't stick at SS. If he is a legit MLB player then this would be a great move. I wouldn't care if the Twins signed a Cuban OF'er (Alvarez). This team needs to add talent to the roster and worry about where to play them later. If Rosario truly ended up blocked by Guerrero then he would be a very attractive trade piece that could net the Twins a decent pitcher. And the scouting reports only say that he probably won't stick at SS. The same scouting reports said that Rosario and Sano might not stick at 2B/3B.

TheLeviathan
08-04-2013, 09:24 PM
Kab just crushed it. That's exactly the point. You aren't going to find players his age for nothing but cash commitments in FA but for extremely rare exceptions.

Cuban or other international FAs that fall through the cracks like this have to be a place we are willing to take some risks if we aren't willing to in normal FA.

Major Leauge Ready
08-05-2013, 08:55 AM
Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

This is the crux of the problem. Many Twins fans just canít get over we are not the Yankees or the Red Sox. The Yankees have approximately $250M more revenue than the Twins and the Red Sox have an additional $120M. While this is not a small market team it would be foolish for the Twins to adapt the practices of large market teams. I am not so sure there practices are well-advised even with the increased revenue. Itís a risky practice. The Yankees better hope they can get out of A-Rods contract and Sabathia looks like he is fading fast w.3.5 years to go on his deal. How about the Angels? They bought themselves a big long-term problem or two.

To continue the spending debate, you have to be willing to just completely ignore that the Rays have been very competitive with a payroll about one-third of the Yankees and RedSox. The Rays and As have a combined payroll of just under $124M (approx $62M/ea). The Twins need to adapt their practices.

What we should be debating IMO, is how the Twins should refine their practices to follow the successful examples of the As and Rays. And, how we could use the $50M in additional revenue we have over those teams. Should we use it to retain our own players, sign international prospects or Free Agentís? I recognize that it will be a few years before our top prospects will arbitration eligible and eventually free agents. However, top free agents require very long-term deals and eat-up that $50M in a big hurry. Do we really want SPs next year that require a six year contract (2014-2019).

Many of the top free agents do perform for awhile. But the norm is to pay them well past their prime so even the ones that do perform will likely hurt the team for a couple of years. That can be obsorbed if you are NY or Boston, not so much if you are the Twins. The rest are a crap shoot, especially pitchers.

nicksaviking
08-05-2013, 09:27 AM
This is the crux of the problem. Many Twins fans just can’t get over we are not the Yankees or the Red Sox. The Yankees have approximately $250M more revenue than the Twins and the Red Sox have an additional $120M. While this is not a small market team it would be foolish for the Twins to adapt the practices of large market teams. I am not so sure there practices are well-advised even with the increased revenue. It’s a risky practice.

That's rediculous, no one on this board argues the Twins should spend like the Yankees and Red Sox. The comps they most often get her are in regard Detroit and St. Louis. No one asks for a top five payroll, most don't even argue for the 2010 payroll, people are just frustrated that they don't use all of the resources available to them.

And don't think the Rays wouldn't spend more if they got the new stadium they have been after. Would we all be happy with a Rays level of success right now? Obviously, but they are winning due to being terrible and getting high draft picks. Hopefully the Twins plight will result in the same fortune. However, the Rays are also succeeding due to an eager use of Sabrmetrics and continued success in identifying and developing pitchers. The Twins have proven an ability to do neither, hence the need to acquire pitchers from outside the organization.

You say the Twins should save their money to retain their top prospects, that's great and they sure as hell better, but those contracts will not be an issue for the better part of a decade. I'm not a fan of a six year deal as you mentioned above, but it would have little affect on the ability to retain a Buxton or Sano, and a more likely three, four or five year deal would have zero impact. Also, it is way too early to assume the top prospects will pan out enough to require mega-contracts. I hope they do and I anticipate they will extend at least one, but counting on the prospects alone, like some here want to, is very dangerous.

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 09:52 AM
That's rediculous, no one on this board argues the Twins should spend like the Yankees and Red Sox. The comps they most often get her are in regard Detroit and St. Louis. No one asks for a top five payroll, most don't even argue for the 2010 payroll, people are just frustrated that they don't use all of the resources available to them.

And don't think the Rays wouldn't spend more if they got the new stadium they have been after. Would we all be happy with a Rays level of success right now? Obviously, but they are winning due to being terrible and getting high draft picks. Hopefully the Twins plight will result in the same fortune. However, the Rays are also succeeding due to an eager use of Sabrmetrics and continued success in identifying and developing pitchers. The Twins have proven an ability to do neither, hence the need to acquire pitchers from outside the organization.

You say the Twins should save their money to retain their top prospects, that's great and they sure as hell better, but those contracts will not be an issue for the better part of a decade. I'm not a fan of a six year deal as you mentioned above, but it would have little affect on the ability to retain a Buxton or Sano, and a more likely three, four or five year deal would have zero impact. Also, it is way too early to assume the top prospects will pan out enough to require mega-contracts. I hope they do and I anticipate they will extend at least one, but counting on the prospects alone, like some here want to, is very dangerous.

It's starting to get comical how often we hear the counter argument to pursuing decent FAs is that we shouldn't be spending to achieve a payroll like the Yankees, Angels or Dodgers...as if anyone who has says we should spend to pursue decent FAs has said anything remotely like that. Since when is suggesting we spend around 100M the same as saying we should spend like the big spenders?

mike wants wins
08-05-2013, 09:52 AM
In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us.

Winston Smith
08-05-2013, 10:42 AM
Simple really they have said time and time again they will spend 50% of revenue. Forbes says they are at 212 mill give or take the same as the Tigers. The Tigers spend well over 50% because they have an owner that wants to win. The Pohlads could care less about winning and everything about making money. Now that they have the stadium that 50% has gone out the window after the first couple years. That was the main reason why Smith and Ryan switched offices. Smith wanted to spend the money and Ryan said he could get it done on the cheap. They called it "philosophical differences".
Is there any question that if they spent around 50% of revenue every year that we wouldn't on average have a better baseball team. If they didn't then they need a new GM.

PseudoSABR
08-05-2013, 10:54 AM
I'm all for adding talent in the way that kab outlies, but I do think we need to again emphasize that while the Twins have mid-market and possible 100 million payroll, they simply can't afford to miss on these type of contracts (Again, why it's hard for the Twins to ever sign a Grienke). We dismiss the risk because the payroll is so low during losing seasons, but over the course of the contract, it very well could prevent the Twins from acquiring necessary assets.

I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't acquire a guy like Guerrero, but rather making such an acquisition isn't as obvious as many are insisting. If the cost is 7/32 that's certainly manageable, but that sounds pretty pollyanneish to me.

cmb0252
08-05-2013, 11:07 AM
Hey look, a perfectly good forum that is getting turned into a payroll argument again....yay.

nicksaviking
08-05-2013, 11:10 AM
We dismiss the risk because the payroll is so low during losing seasons, but over the course of the contract, it very well could prevent the Twins from acquiring necessary assets.

I don't think many people realistically thought going after Grienke was a good move, but there are many levels of free agency between the Grienke's and the Marquis'.

While signing a bigger free agent is a risk as they may not pan out and you may want the money to acquire future assets, when the time comes, won't you then be questioning whether the future asset is a good deal? Sure the Twins don't normally have the margin of error a big market club does, but it's not like they need to sweat free agency. With a commited payroll of just over $50 million next year and no uber-prospects in need of a large commitment for at least a half decade, the Twins have about as large of a margin of error as any team.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-05-2013, 11:12 AM
I would sign him as long as the price was right, anything over 40-45 mil guaranteed would be too much for me honestly.

Major Leauge Ready
08-05-2013, 11:16 AM
In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us.

Part of your point is the real issue. The Twins need to improve in the same areas as the Rays and As. That would provide a very high probability of improved success.

I don't think one dime of tax payer money should ever go toward building stadiums. It is a subsidy for private business that certainly does not require it. If you want to be mad, be mad because our legislature/society takes tax revenue for sports teams who then use it to drive-up sports salaries that are already phenominally high. However, that ship has sailed so get over it. They spent when it made sense. We can complain when it comes time to spend to keep the talent they are developing.

What are the viable options? We don't want to block Hick's, Arcia or Buxton so FA outfielders does not make sense. We have Mauer at catcher with Pinto being ready soon, Hermann as back-up and several fresh recruits at catacher. Sano or Rosario and Florimon is among the top couple short stops defensively. That leaves us w/1B and pitching. Harrison or Kepler are likely candidates and 1B would be easy to fill via free agency.

It's easy to speak of how we should use free agency in general terms and to say they should have spent every last dime but how specifically should they have spent the money, short of having a crystal ball for the couple of FAs who did not require 4-6 years that did happen to work out. So, what exactly should they have done differently in free agency? I have to say the Pelfey signing was overly optimistic in terms of how quickly he be back in form if at all but there were many names floated here and out side of Grienke and Sanchez, most are not performing. The simply would have spent more money and tied up more roster spots for a longer period of time.

Last season is a shining example of the current free agent market for pitchers. There will be 2-3 really top pitchers that will command 4-6 years. If you go back 4-6 years, most of those acquistions were poor or very poor values.

PseudoSABR
08-05-2013, 11:21 AM
I don't think many people realistically thought going after Grienke was a good move, but there are many levels of free agency between the Grienke's and the Marquis'.

While signing a bigger free agent is a risk as they may not pan out and you may want the money to acquire future assets, when the time comes, won't you then be questioning whether the future asset is a good deal? Sure the Twins don't normally have the margin of error a big market club does, but it's not like they need to sweat free agency. With a commited payroll of just over $50 million next year and no uber-prospects in need of a large commitment for at least a half decade, the Twins have about as large of a margin of error as any team.I don't disagree. But since I know so little about this player, I can hardly blame the Twins if they aren't going to spend on him. Likewise, I'd rather them invest in expensive FAs when they are closer to competitiveness (and have a better idea of their true needs, though I agree assets are assets), in spite of however low payroll is now.

cmb0252
08-05-2013, 11:26 AM
We agree on many things but this is a terrible analysis. I don't care if Guerrero can't stick at SS. If he is a legit MLB player then this would be a great move. I wouldn't care if the Twins signed a Cuban OF'er (Alvarez). This team needs to add talent to the roster and worry about where to play them later. If Rosario truly ended up blocked by Guerrero then he would be a very attractive trade piece that could net the Twins a decent pitcher. And the scouting reports only say that he probably won't stick at SS. The same scouting reports said that Rosario and Sano might not stick at 2B/3B.

While you are right scouts have been wrong on where players end up, what else do we have to go by? I haven't seen Guerrero play. Heck, even if I saw how he played I wouldn't know what I was looking for. I can only go by what the international experts say. The two guys who are considered the best at scouting international players, Ben Badler and Jesse Sanchez, both have said he doesn't have the tools for SS and will end up at 2B. Wanting him to play SS doesn't increase his chances of playing the position.

Now to your other point. If Guerrero can play a different position at a MLB level I would welcome the addition. The team needs talent. I just don't like what I have read. He sad out all of 2012 and won't be cleared to play till 2014. That's two years off, especially when you are moving to an even more competitive league, is a really long time.

I'm all for the Twins adding talent anyway they can but can a person just not like a player? Seeing only 3 teams out of 30 are in on him I'm not the only person out there that doesn't like what I have seen.

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 11:29 AM
This whole idea about how big contracts now will adversely affect our ability to keep out supposed future studs is comical.

These mega contracts that some just assume our prospects coming up are going to be deserving of won't be needed till so far down the road it's a non-factor in spending now...so we need to stop saying we need to not give out longer contracts for that reason...especially with where our payroll sits now and where it will sit after next year and the year after when lots of money coming off the books.

I mean, seriously, most of the guys we're projecting to deserve big contracts won't even be 1st year arbitration eligible till 2017 at the very earliest, many farther down the road than that. This is 2013. Not only that, Mauer's contract ends 2018 as well.

nicksaviking
08-05-2013, 11:31 AM
I don't disagree. But since I know so little about this player, I can hardly blame the Twins if they aren't going to spend on him. Likewise, I'd rather them invest in expensive FAs when they are closer to competitiveness (and have a better idea of their true needs, though I agree assets are assets), in spite of however low payroll is now.

Ideally I would too, but the closer they get, the closer any possible mega-extension for Buxton or Sano comes into play. If they are going to get a nice free agent upgrade who requires an uncomfortable amount of years (read: pitcher or SS on a 4-5 year deal) they likely need to do it before they are sure they are able to compete. Alas next year's free agent pitching class looks to have no one deserving of that kind of deal save Matt Garza. I'd take a chance on a SS then.

nicksaviking
08-05-2013, 11:40 AM
Wanting him to play SS doesn't increase his chances of playing the position.

Sure it does. See Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie. It all depends on what a team is willing to field in exchange for offense at the position. It's not black and white; what one team requires from a SS isn't what every team does. There is no standard template that every player at a position is required to follow.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-05-2013, 11:47 AM
This whole idea about how big contracts now will adversely affect our ability to keep out supposed future studs is comical.

These mega contracts that some just assume our prospects coming up are going to be deserving of won't be needed till so far down the road it's a non-factor in spending now...so we need to stop saying we need to not give out longer contracts for that reason...especially with where our payroll sits now and where it will sit after next year and the year after when lots of money coming off the books.

I mean, seriously, most of the guys we're projecting to deserve big contracts won't even be 1st year arbitration eligible till 2017 at the very earliest, many farther down the road than that. This is 2013. Not only that, Mauer's contract ends 2018 as well.

You shouldn't just sign mega contracts just because you can currently afford to do it, look how well it has worked for the Yankees (Tex, A-rod), Phillies and the Angels (Pujols, Hamilton, Wells etc)

Also it goes beyond the whole "sano and buxtons first big deal" it goes to the next 4-5 years where the Twins would be better off if they weren't hamstrung by additional huge deals. (Unless it really makes sense)

kab21
08-05-2013, 11:55 AM
While you are right scouts have been wrong on where players end up, what else do we have to go by? I haven't seen Guerrero play. Heck, even if I saw how he played I wouldn't know what I was looking for. I can only go by what the international experts say. The two guys who are considered the best at scouting international players, Ben Badler and Jesse Sanchez, both have said he doesn't have the tools for SS and will end up at 2B. Wanting him to play SS doesn't increase his chances of playing the position.

Now to your other point. If Guerrero can play a different position at a MLB level I would welcome the addition. The team needs talent. I just don't like what I have read. He sad out all of 2012 and won't be cleared to play till 2014. That's two years off, especially when you are moving to an even more competitive league, is a really long time.

I'm all for the Twins adding talent anyway they can but can a person just not like a player? Seeing only 3 teams out of 30 are in on him I'm not the only person out there that doesn't like what I have seen.

Your arguments so far in this thread:

A) If he can't play short then I don't want to block Rosario

B) We got burned by Nishi so maybe the Twins shouldn't pursue high dollar int'l FA's.

C) He will be 26/27 and sat out 2 years. This is pretty standard for Cuban FA's. It sounds like you would argue against using an entire avenue of player acquisition to make the team better.

D) 27 teams aren't rumored to be in the mix so there must be something wrong with him. This is actually pretty common in Cuban and even normal FA. Only one team was in on Puig and the rest of the baseball world (FO's and writers) thought the Dodgers were completely crazy signing him for 40+M.

Obviously the Twins will have to scout him and they will have significantly better resources than any of us but the fact that they are interested has me interested.

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 11:59 AM
You shouldn't just sign mega contracts just because you can currently afford to do it, look how well it has worked for the Yankees (Tex, A-rod), Phillies and the Angels (Pujols, Hamilton, Wells etc)

Also it goes beyond the whole "sano and buxtons first big deal" it goes to the next 4-5 years where the Twins would be better off if they weren't hamstrung by additional huge deals. (Unless it really makes sense)

You point out the ones that don't work out and ignore the ones that do work out...

And I never said sign guys to long contracts just because you can afford to...so that counter makes no sense.

And you say the next 4-5 years, during which time more payroll comes off the books being replaced by pre-arbitration guys? 27M off the books going into next season, 10M or so after 2014. How low does payroll have to be before you say, Hmm, maybe signing a true quality player or two to a long term contract won't 'hamstring' us? Do we have to get to 30M a season?

mike wants wins
08-05-2013, 12:04 PM
The Yankees won a lot of games the first mega deals....but again, no one is arguing "spend on random guys, just to spend money". No one is arguing "spend like the Yankees". We are suggesting that having a payroll smaller than in the dome is not likely to lead to much success, especially if more than 1/3 is on one player.

kab21
08-05-2013, 12:18 PM
The Yankees won a lot of games the first mega deals....but again, no one is arguing "spend on random guys, just to spend money". No one is arguing "spend like the Yankees". We are suggesting that having a payroll smaller than in the dome is not likely to lead to much success, especially if more than 1/3 is on one player.

Some guys take this don't spend on a rebuilding team bit too far but most simply don't want to be committing 12-16M/yr for 4-5 yrs on guys that probably will be below average by the end of their contracts. Edwin Jackson I'm talking about you. Buehrle don't act like I can't see you.

Guerrero is rumored to be available for less and he is in his prime right now. if the Twins like this guy then lets spend some money.

PseudoSABR
08-05-2013, 12:29 PM
Ideally I would too, but the closer they get, the closer any possible mega-extension for Buxton or Sano comes into play. If they are going to get a nice free agent upgrade who requires an uncomfortable amount of years (read: pitcher or SS on a 4-5 year deal) they likely need to do it before they are sure they are able to compete. Alas next year's free agent pitching class looks to have no one deserving of that kind of deal save Matt Garza. I'd take a chance on a SS then.Right. I'll be watching closely to see if the Twins actually start investing this offseason. We can't simply assume players will be available in free agency when it suits us best. Given that our premium talent is now in the upper minors, the team shoudl start taking some heavier finacial risks in free agency.

Last offseason, the prospects seemed much further away than they actually are, so in hindsight, nabbing Grienke/Sanchez (as impossible as it probably would have been) wouldn't have been the financial albatross I anticipated.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-05-2013, 12:51 PM
You point out the ones that don't work out and ignore the ones that do work out...

And I never said sign guys to long contracts just because you can afford to...so that counter makes no sense.

And you say the next 4-5 years, during which time more payroll comes off the books being replaced by pre-arbitration guys? 27M off the books going into next season, 10M or so after 2014. How low does payroll have to be before you say, Hmm, maybe signing a true quality player or two to a long term contract won't 'hamstring' us? Do we have to get to 30M a season?
Which ones do work out? Lets look at the top 10 or so.
A-Rod- No
Vernon Wells- No
Johan Santana- No
Mark Texiera- No (even without the injury he hasnt produced)
CC Sabathia- Yes (has been worth it for sure)
Joe Mauer- Yes
Prince Fielder- Yes
Adrian Gonzalez- I'm going to say no, because of his regression.
Cliff Lee- Yes
Miggy- Yes
Roy Halladay- No
Verlander- Yes
Crawford- No
Ryan Howard- no
King Felix- Yes
Zito-lol, no
Carlos Lee- No
Zamrano- No
Soriano- No
(12 bad contracts, 7 "good" contracts)
I am all about signing Guerrero as long as we don't go completely overboard. But the point remains, the best way IMHO to create a contender is to surround the Sanos,Buxton's etc with good supporting players and not just throwing 100+ mil to multiple Free Agents

Rick Blaine
08-05-2013, 01:18 PM
I Maybe Willingham is healthy two years in a row.



Does any one knowWillingham's status? Is he done for the year or will we see him playing again this year?

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 01:32 PM
Does any one knowWillingham's status? Is he done for the year or will we see him playing again this year?

should be back Friday

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 01:37 PM
Which ones do work out? Lets look at the top 10 or so.
A-Rod- No
Vernon Wells- No
Johan Santana- No
Mark Texiera- No (even without the injury he hasnt produced)
CC Sabathia- Yes (has been worth it for sure)
Joe Mauer- Yes
Prince Fielder- Yes
Adrian Gonzalez- I'm going to say no, because of his regression.
Cliff Lee- Yes
Miggy- Yes
Roy Halladay- No
Verlander- Yes
Crawford- No
Ryan Howard- no
King Felix- Yes
Zito-lol, no
Carlos Lee- No
Zamrano- No
Soriano- No
(12 bad contracts, 7 "good" contracts)
I am all about signing Guerrero as long as we don't go completely overboard. But the point remains, the best way IMHO to create a contender is to surround the Sanos,Buxton's etc with good supporting players and not just throwing 100+ mil to multiple Free Agents

Again, nobody is arguing that it isn't the BEST way, the argument is that all ways need to be utilized. You can't throw out an avenue to improve because you're scared it may not work out. It's the cost of doing business...some just don't work out.

And no one is suggesting throwing 100M contract at multiple free agents...I'm sure not.

drjim
08-05-2013, 02:11 PM
Again, nobody is arguing that it isn't the BEST way, the argument is that all ways need to be utilized. You can't throw out an avenue to improve because you're scared it may not work out. It's the cost of doing business...some just don't work out.

And no one is suggesting throwing 100M contract at multiple free agents...I'm sure not.

I don't think anyone is against signing free agents that produce close to their contracts.

I'm sure you are aware of recent free agent classes. I'm convinced you are criticizing the Twins for not signing players that don't actually exist.

Theoretically sure, the Twins should have guaranteed more than the $50 mil they did over the past two years but there are problems with players that were actually available and how they fit on a rebuilding roster.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-05-2013, 02:23 PM
I don't think anyone is against signing free agents that produce close to their contracts.

I'm sure you are aware of recent free agent classes. I'm convinced you are criticizing the Twins for not signing players that don't actually exist.

Theoretically sure, the Twins should have guaranteed more than the $50 mil they did over the past two years but there are problems with players that were actually available and how they fit on a rebuilding roster.
Yup, the only one it would have been prudent to sign was Sanchez, and honestly, I doubt he comes to the Twins unless they beat Detroit's offer significantly, which would have at that point been in the "danger" category (over 80 mil over 5 years)

I still like the FA market this off-season for the Twins, you have some nice arms you can get without spending 100mm each on: See: Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Tim Lincecum, Kuroda (doubtful), Ervin Santana, AJ Burnett, Matt Garza (won't happen)

Of course none of those guys are "100% legit ace's" but if you can get 2 of them or so for a combined 25 mil or less per season it could go a long ways to fixing this rotation.

Potential mid 2014 rotation of:
1.Josh Johnson
2.Phil Hughes/Ervin Santana
3. Alex Meyer
4. Kyle Gibson
5. Sam DeDuno
(plus- Pelfrey,Correia,Hendriks etc) in the wings.
Could be pretty decent for 2014/2015.

Major Leauge Ready
08-05-2013, 02:26 PM
Which ones do work out? Lets look at the top 10 or so.
A-Rod- No
Vernon Wells- No
Johan Santana- No
Mark Texiera- No (even without the injury he hasnt produced)
CC Sabathia- Yes (has been worth it for sure)
Joe Mauer- Yes
Prince Fielder- Yes
Adrian Gonzalez- I'm going to say no, because of his regression.
Cliff Lee- Yes
Miggy- Yes
Roy Halladay- No
Verlander- Yes
Crawford- No
Ryan Howard- no
King Felix- Yes
Zito-lol, no
Carlos Lee- No
Zamrano- No
Soriano- No
(12 bad contracts, 7 "good" contracts)
I am all about signing Guerrero as long as we don't go completely overboard. But the point remains, the best way IMHO to create a contender is to surround the Sanos,Buxton's etc with good supporting players and not just throwing 100+ mil to multiple Free Agents

We can't really judge until these contracts have run through completion. Sabathia is signed through 2017 and he looks to be declining substantially. Maybe he is hurt but he has had several bad starts in a row, including against the Twins.

We will have to wait and see on Fielder. That body type does not inspire confidence in terms of continuing to perform as he ages.

At least the high profile international guys don't entail contracts that take them past their prime. At least we can avoid that specific risk. I would guess Billy Beane's logic with Cespedes was that he was entering his prime and it only required 4 yr/$36M. I think this is the type of deal that makes sense for the Twins.

Having said all this I do side with those who say we can do more with Morneau and Blackburn coming off the books and additional TV revenue. Someone like Ryan Dempster made sense to me this last off-season but he is 6-8 with an ERA of 4.54 which for all practical purposes is no different than Correia. The only think I am sure of is that any free agent strategy has a high probability of failure. I like the odds a little better with the international FAs for reasons previously stated. The only thing that I am sure of is that we need to get better at identifying and developing SPs and we need to sell high on occcasion.

Major Leauge Ready
08-05-2013, 02:38 PM
Again, nobody is arguing that it isn't the BEST way, the argument is that all ways need to be utilized. You can't throw out an avenue to improve because you're scared it may not work out. It's the cost of doing business...some just don't work out.

And no one is suggesting throwing 100M contract at multiple free agents...I'm sure not.

What specifically would you have had them do last year? I really am not trying to be combative. I just don't think there were reasonable options. Therefore, how can you criticize the effort on FAs? I wanted Dempster and either Marcum or Saunders. Marcum has been really bad, Saunders and Dempster have nearly identical ERAs that are just a little higher than Correia. At least Pelfrey will be gone next year and they can try again.

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 02:40 PM
I'm convinced you are criticizing the Twins for not signing players that don't actually exist.



actually, I'm pretty sure I'm just talking about plans of action moving forward and nothing at all to do with what they did or didn't do.

BTW, you wrote: 'I don't think anyone is against signing free agents that produce close to their contracts.'

BIG problem with that statement...You'd need to have a crystal ball to know if a FA you sign will produce close to their contract. So yeah...again...can't be scared to dive in just cause you think you might end up spending a bit more than what they end up being worth

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 02:46 PM
What specifically would you have had them do last year? I really am not trying to be combative. I just don't think there were reasonable options. Therefore, how can you criticize the effort on FAs? I wanted Dempster and either Marcum or Saunders. Marcum has been really bad, Saunders and Dempster have nearly identical ERAs that are just a little higher than Correia. At least Pelfrey will be gone next year and they can try again.

Was there something in my post bashing what was done in the past? That's over and done with. All I'm talking about now is, going forward, utilizing all avenues available to create a team. Some people seem to want to completely rule out getting true quality players in FA.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-05-2013, 03:00 PM
We can't really judge until these contracts have run through completion. Sabathia is signed through 2017 and he looks to be declining substantially. Maybe he is hurt but he has had several bad starts in a row, including against the Twins.

We will have to wait and see on Fielder. That body type does not inspire confidence in terms of continuing to perform as he ages.

At least the high profile international guys don't entail contracts that take them past their prime. At least we can avoid that specific risk. I would guess Billy Beane's logic with Cespedes was that he was entering his prime and it only required 4 yr/$36M. I think this is the type of deal that makes sense for the Twins.

Having said all this I do side with those who say we can do more with Morneau and Blackburn coming off the books and additional TV revenue. Someone like Ryan Dempster made sense to me this last off-season but he is 6-8 with an ERA of 4.54 which for all practical purposes is no different than Correia. The only think I am sure of is that any free agent strategy has a high probability of failure. I like the odds a little better with the international FAs for reasons previously stated. The only thing that I am sure of is that we need to get better at identifying and developing SPs and we need to sell high on occcasion.

Yeah I think Fielder ultimately ends up being a bad signing.. i didn't even include Pujols and Hamilton, which both surely will be looked upon as huge mistakes.

It will be interesting when Miggy hits the FA market in a couple years, he will almost certainly demand more than what Pujols got, will Detroit be able to afford that with all of their other huge deals?

birdwatcher
08-05-2013, 03:13 PM
Wow. We get 80 comments in to a piece about a 26 year-old player who, by virtually every scouting report is NOT a MLB-calibre SS, and who may or may not have a higher ceiling than Rosario and Polanco.

So let me get this straight. His price tag is around $26M? And we absolutely NEED to go outside the system for a SS, but not a 2B.


I'm not gonna rip them for passing on this guy, if that happens. I'm gonna rip them if they don't take a serious crack at finding a high-ceiling SS prospect or two. I don't care if it comes from the draft, the international market, a trade, free agency, or Cuba. But they need to find someone much better than Florimon by the start of 2016, when they're back in contending mode.

Trea Turner would work.

Major Leauge Ready
08-05-2013, 04:01 PM
No, my bad, I was asking you when I was really generalizing. It is sometimes hard to convey that type of subtelty in this medium. And, I don't think that others rules out free agency but they are pointing out that some posters bash the FO for not signing players that don't really exist. There other disconnect is that the best free agents get 5-6 years and the timing does not make sense right now and perhaps never. We have two stellar operating models to follow in the Rays and As. If we did things as well as those two organizations with a payroll budget that is roughly an incremental $50M, we would be in great shape.

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 04:06 PM
No, my bad, I was asking you when I was really generalizing. It is sometimes hard to convey that type of subtelty in this medium. And, I don't think that others rules out free agency but they are pointing out that some posters bash the FO for not signing players that don't really exist. There other disconnect is that the best free agents get 5-6 years and the timing does not make sense right now and perhaps never. We have two stellar operating models to follow in the Rays and As. If we did things as well as those two organizations with a payroll budget that is roughly an incremental $50M, we would be in great shape.

Probably be better to follow the Cardinals model rather than the Rays and As. Not that there's anything wrong with the way the Rays and As do things, but they are seriously small market. No reason, at all, to have to work our model around having a 50M payroll.

nicksaviking
08-05-2013, 04:17 PM
We have two stellar operating models to follow in the Rays and As. If we did things as well as those two organizations with a payroll budget that is roughly an incremental $50M, we would be in great shape.

But as already covered, the only part of that model they follow is the low payroll part. They do not embrace Sabrmetrics, utilize new school or inovative baseball decisions or identify and develop top of the rotation arms that can both anchor a rotation and be used as trade bait to restock the system.

But really, if you have the payroll flexibility (which the Twins do) why would you want to continue to willingly lose pitchers the way the A's and Rays do? It's doubtful the A's would have traded Gio Gonzalez had they been able to sign him long-term. So in fact the A's/Rays model is a desperate attempt to maximize talent based on a dire financial situation, it's doubtful they would opperate under these circumstances if they could be avoided. If they had increased payroll due to new stadiums/new cities, we would probably compare them them to St. Louis, which is what we are asking the Twins to copy.

TwinsFanInPhilly
08-05-2013, 04:28 PM
But as already covered, the only part of that model they follow is the low payroll part. They do not embrace Sabrmetrics, utilize new school or inovative baseball decisions or identify and develop top of the rotation arms that can both anchor a rotation and be used as trade bait to restock the system.

But really, if you have the payroll flexibility (which the Twins do) why would you want to continue to willingly lose pitchers the way the A's and Rays do? It's doubtful the A's would have traded Gio Gonzalez had they been able to sign him long-term. So in fact the A's/Rays model is a desperate attempt to maximize talent based on a dire financial situation, it's doubtful they would opperate under these circumstances if they could be avoided. If they had increased payroll due to new stadiums/new cities, we would probably compare them them to St. Louis, which is what we are asking the Twins to copy.

Can you give an example of what you mean with this?

Jeremy Nygaard
08-05-2013, 04:40 PM
As I started to read this thread from where I left off, I realized there was a lot of fluff... so forgive me if I'm rehashing anything.

Here's video of Guerrero:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpnTQPgxrYc

About Cubans in general, Cespedes and Puig have significantly raised the expectation bar when it comes to Cuban imports.

Guerrero and Alvarez (mentioned earlier) aren't in the same class. I know the Twins watched Alvarez, who signed with the Orioles, and before he signed I basically heard that Alvarez wouldn't get much money and if he did, it would be thanks to the other guys.

I'm not going to take too much from what's behind BA's pay wall, but I think these are the most important lines from the whole report:


One thing Guerrero has going for him is that some scouts think he can stay in the middle of the infield, although shortstop is probably out of the question.Several teams aren’t convinced he has the ability to either reach the majors or stick there as an everyday player.

Regardless, it sounds like the Dodgers would like to have Guerrero in their lineup at 2B for the month of September and are willing to pony up for him.

I've said I'm not a fan of the Twins signing him. I think he'll be a bust. I also laughed at the ridiculous amount of money the Dodgers threw at Yasiel Puig, so maybe I have Guerrero all wrong too.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-05-2013, 04:57 PM
Wow. We get 80 comments in to a piece about a 26 year-old player who, by virtually every scouting report is NOT a MLB-calibre SS, and who may or may not have a higher ceiling than Rosario and Polanco.

So let me get this straight. His price tag is around $26M? And we absolutely NEED to go outside the system for a SS, but not a 2B.


I'm not gonna rip them for passing on this guy, if that happens. I'm gonna rip them if they don't take a serious crack at finding a high-ceiling SS prospect or two. I don't care if it comes from the draft, the international market, a trade, free agency, or Cuba. But they need to find someone much better than Florimon by the start of 2016, when they're back in contending mode.

Trea Turner would work.
Florimon is going to end up a 3 WAR player this year, his bat leaves some to be desired, but by a quick glance it appears he is getting unlucky with his BABIP, if he can somehow get to .670 OPS or so along (12-15HR/10-15 SB) with his defense I think he is a perfectly fine SS for at least the next 2-3 years.

I don't think the Twins should NOT look for a SS in the meantime, I just wouldn't break the bank or do something stupid out of desperation to bring another one in. According to fangraphs he has the third best defense of ALL SS in baseball.

big dog
08-05-2013, 05:22 PM
I don't think the Twins should NOT look for a SS in the meantime, I just wouldn't break the bank or do something stupid out of desperation to bring another one in. According to fangraphs he has the third best defense of ALL SS in baseball.

If they can get someone who is definitely an improvement on Florimon, spend the money.

If they can't do that (and even if they can), they need to get a couple of starting pitchers, then go out and find another starting pitchers. And none of this bargain basement stuff. Quality >>>quantity. Quality + Quantity >>>>>>>> Quantity.

Major Leauge Ready
08-05-2013, 06:26 PM
Probably be better to follow the Cardinals model rather than the Rays and As. Not that there's anything wrong with the way the Rays and As do things, but they are seriously small market. No reason, at all, to have to work our model around having a 50M payroll.

Good point. Perhaps the best practices among the three should be the goal.

ThePuck
08-05-2013, 06:31 PM
If they can get someone who is definitely an improvement on Florimon, spend the money.

If they can't do that (and even if they can), they need to get a couple of starting pitchers, then go out and find another starting pitchers. And none of this bargain basement stuff. Quality >>>quantity. Quality + Quantity >>>>>>>> Quantity.

Well, they won't trade prospects, and they won't pay for quality free agent pitching, and we have nothing left to really trade that will garnish any quality starting pitching, especially since Perkins is unavailable...

So, um, it's the draft

birdwatcher
08-05-2013, 06:55 PM
Florimon is going to end up a 3 WAR player this year, his bat leaves some to be desired, but by a quick glance it appears he is getting unlucky with his BABIP, if he can somehow get to .670 OPS or so along (12-15HR/10-15 SB) with his defense I think he is a perfectly fine SS for at least the next 2-3 years.

I don't think the Twins should NOT look for a SS in the meantime, I just wouldn't break the bank or do something stupid out of desperation to bring another one in. According to fangraphs he has the third best defense of ALL SS in baseball.

Agrred. Like I said, Florimon will probably be acceptable through the 2015 season, but not on a contending team.

big dog
08-05-2013, 06:56 PM
Well, they won't trade prospects, and they won't pay for quality free agent pitching, and we have nothing left to really trade that will garnish any quality starting pitching, especially since Perkins is unavailable...

So, um, it's the draft

Maybe, but I'm hoping after this year's experience they shoot a couple levels higher and get someone more plausible.

Thegrin
08-05-2013, 07:24 PM
I can't believe this conversation is going on and nobody has mentioned Nishioka. His signing looked great. His actual production was terrible. I'm not saying that Guerrero would be terrible, but Nishioka should be a caution. No matter how good they look on paper, we have to see how they are in the field. That is a big investment and we have 2 2nd base prospects already. Dozier and Rosario. Dozier is certainly a major league fielding talent and he may end up being a decent hitter. Rosario looks like he falls out of bed hitting, but his fielding is suspect. We don't need another MI prospect unless he looks like a major league hitter and fielder.

big dog
08-05-2013, 07:30 PM
Actually several people have mentioned Nishioka earlier in the thread.

Jim H
08-05-2013, 07:45 PM
Quote from Mike wants Wins

In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us

I understand why everyone loves the Rays and the A's right now, but a little prespective would be nice. Are you sure the Rays were trading their guys at their high point value wise or more because they had no choice budget wise? In the case of Garza, they clearly had guys they would rather keep and it looks like the Cubs were willing to overpay for a guy they thought could be an Ace. Even so the Rays would have been a better team for the last 3 years if they could have kept him. The Bartlett trade to San Diego looks good now, but the Rays spent 3 years rotating guys through the shortstop spot, and none of them was as good as Bartlett was. It was likely they would have kept Bartlett if they could of afforded him.

The part about platoons is interesting, but don't you think the Rays would rather have one guy you could run out there everyday, rather than platoon? Now the Rays have done a good job managing the situation they are in money wise. But, over the last dozen years they haven't been in the playoffs any more often than the Twins. I wouldn't bet any big money going forward that they will be in the playoffs any more than the Twins over the next dozen years. Clearly, the Twins are attempting to build a core of good young players. We won't know for sure, if they have succeeded for awhile, but I am happy with what they are trying to do. Will I quibble about exactly what choices they make? Of course. But I do think they are tracking the right way.

nicksaviking
08-05-2013, 08:00 PM
Can you give an example of what you mean with this?



In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us.

I wasn't going to make an arguement about how the Twins and Rays only similarity being a low payroll without brining up Mike's fair point.

mike wants wins
08-05-2013, 08:18 PM
Put the rays in the crappy central.....see what happens.

kab21
08-05-2013, 10:24 PM
Wow. We get 80 comments in to a piece about a 26 year-old player who, by virtually every scouting report is NOT a MLB-calibre SS, and who may or may not have a higher ceiling than Rosario and Polanco.

So let me get this straight. His price tag is around $26M? And we absolutely NEED to go outside the system for a SS, but not a 2B.


I'm not gonna rip them for passing on this guy, if that happens. I'm gonna rip them if they don't take a serious crack at finding a high-ceiling SS prospect or two. I don't care if it comes from the draft, the international market, a trade, free agency, or Cuba. But they need to find someone much better than Florimon by the start of 2016, when they're back in contending mode.

Trea Turner would work.

I said it before but the Twins need to worry less about what position a player plays and get good players. Hopefully they can find MI'ers and SP'ers but they need talent. Singling out a position or two leads you to overlooking other good values.

old nurse
08-05-2013, 10:32 PM
I wasn't going to make an arguement about how the Twins and Rays only similarity being a low payroll without brining up Mike's fair point.

You still did not address what you mean by this
"They do not embrace Sabrmetrics, utilize new school or inovative baseball decisions or identify and develop top of the rotation arms that can both anchor a rotation and be used as trade bait to restock the system."
Without a top 5 pick what team has developed two proven top of the rotation starters in the last even 10 years?

kab21
08-05-2013, 10:40 PM
Probably be better to follow the Cardinals model rather than the Rays and As. Not that there's anything wrong with the way the Rays and As do things, but they are seriously small market. No reason, at all, to have to work our model around having a 50M payroll.

I find 'follow the Cardinals (or any other team) model' to be rather generic and even misleading. The Cardinals success in the last decade was built around a lucky late rd pick (Pujols), an ace that had been released by the Jays with 5.00 career ERA and later drafting/developing an ace (Wainwright). When you have that then it makes a lot of sense to trade for Holliday, sign Beltran and any other going for it move they made. The don't have that and aren't even close. Perhaps Sano or Buxton become that stud to go with Mauer and they find a way to find some pitching but it's not as simple as 'just follow the Cardinals model'.

old nurse
08-05-2013, 10:43 PM
Put the rays in the crappy central.....see what happens.
Tampa's winning percentage against the Central teams is currently at .574 which is worse than their overall win percentage. It is only slightly better than Cleveland's .574, and much worse than Detroit's .626

S.
08-19-2013, 07:13 PM
Not much of an update, but an update none-the-less

"The market for Cuban shortstop Alexander Guerrero is down to four teams, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/369601527775633408) links (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/369602589337219072)). The Dodgers, Twins, Red Sox and Braves are the clubs still in the mix to sign the 26-year-old. The Reds have also checked in on Guerrero, though they might not be (or are no longer be) a serious contender since Wolfson didn't include them in his first group.

The Dodgers and Twins had previously been cited (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/three-teams-vying-for-cuban-shortstop-guerrero.html) as two of the then-three clubs known to be interested in Guerrero, and agent Rudy Santin denied reports that his client already had a seven-year deal in place with Los Angeles. Guerrero defected from Cuba in January and is still waiting to be unblocked (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/quick-hits-konerko-harrison-bernadina-guerrero.html) by the U.S. government before he can pursue a contract with a Major League team."

Dodgers, Twins, BoSox, Braves In On Guerrero: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/dodgers-twins-bosox-braves-in-on-guerrero.html)

Willihammer
08-19-2013, 07:44 PM
I'm encouraged. The Twins seem to be serious. From what I've read, Guerrero's bat falls somewhere between Alexei Ramirez and Cespedes. Something like a .760 OPS bat in the MLB, no? That would be almost a .200 point improvement over the likes of Florimon.

TheLeviathan
08-19-2013, 08:59 PM
This would be encouraging.

Oxtung
08-19-2013, 09:15 PM
This would be encouraging.

If he can stick at SS and play adequate defense. Of course at .760 OPS he would still be pretty good at 2B.

TheLeviathan
08-19-2013, 09:27 PM
If he can stick at SS and play adequate defense. Of course at .760 OPS he would still be pretty good at 2B.

Frankly, I could care less how he turns out. I'd just be encouraged we took the risk.

Mr. Brooks
08-19-2013, 09:41 PM
Frankly, I could care less how he turns out. I'd just be encouraged we took the risk.

This.

jorgenswest
08-19-2013, 10:05 PM
Every contract is a risk. The Twins need to take this risk. If it turns out to be a Nishioka, I won't be back to criticize this move.

The Twins are desperate for talent. They are desperate for talent in the middle infield. They are desperate for talent that will be in their prime when the young talent arrives from the minors. Though the salary may be high, it will cost the Twins nothing in traded talent or surrendered draft picks.

There is no reason for the Twins to be outbid for Guerrero.

cmb0252
08-19-2013, 10:50 PM
Once again, do people actually like this guys scouting reports? Obviously the Twins do because they are in on him but come on. Signing him just spend money is dumb. Use money wisely.

TheLeviathan
08-19-2013, 11:19 PM
Once again, do people actually like this guys scouting reports? Obviously the Twins do because they are in on him but come on. Signing him just spend money is dumb. Use money wisely.

He's young, we have lots of money, he'll only cost money....so yeah, I'm ok with this being little more than he's talent and has potential, we should just freaking spend money.

The Wise One
08-20-2013, 05:52 AM
Every contract is a risk. The Twins need to take this risk. If it turns out to be a Nishioka, I won't be back to criticize this move.

The Twins are desperate for talent. They are desperate for talent in the middle infield. They are desperate for talent that will be in their prime when the young talent arrives from the minors. Though the salary may be high, it will cost the Twins nothing in traded talent or surrendered draft picks.

There is no reason for the Twins to be outbid for Guerrero.

I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.

The Wise One
08-20-2013, 05:54 AM
He's young, we have lots of money, he'll only cost money....so yeah, I'm ok with this being little more than he's talent and has potential, we should just freaking spend money.
This is not a personal attack but it does illuminate my point. Where has your praising been for the failed signing? After all, it is only money. No, when the money is spent poorly the fans will complain and call the front office names.

ThePuck
08-20-2013, 06:53 AM
I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.

Try to remember we were losing Hardy while gaining Nishi. Many were happy with getting Hardy and ticked off for him being traded. Maybe THAT had something to do with the less than warm thoughts on Nishi's signing.

Badsmerf
08-20-2013, 07:23 AM
I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.
At the time, there was a ton of praise. After seeing him play for 2 weeks, there was a ton of hate. The scouts that thought he would be able to adjust were way off. Cubans have had way more success in the MLB as a whole than Japanese players too... especially recently. The Twins dropped the ball scouting Nishi and as a consequence sent one of the best SS in the league packing. It was a complete blunder.

This is a different scenario. The Twins have a hole, and the money to plug it for the next 5 years. If this guy doesn't turn out to be Tulo it isn't going to cripple the organization. Plus, if he can't stick at SS they can move him to 1b (if his bat plays up).

TheLeviathan
08-20-2013, 07:37 AM
This is not a personal attack but it does illuminate my point. Where has your praising been for the failed signing? After all, it is only money. No, when the money is spent poorly the fans will complain and call the front office names.

On BYTO, I defended the Nishi move heavily and ultimately was wrong about him. But I absolutely stand by the thinking. We aggressively went after a talent outside our usual M.O. at a position we had been awful at for years. Our execution was poor, but I still praise the thinking behind it.

Some people will do what you say here and some will bend their principles to defend the team no matter what on the flip side.....that ain't me.

cmathewson
08-20-2013, 07:43 AM
At the time, there was a ton of praise. After seeing him play for 2 weeks, there was a ton of hate. The scouts that thought he would be able to adjust were way off. Cubans have had way more success in the MLB as a whole than Japanese players too... especially recently. The Twins dropped the ball scouting Nishi and as a consequence sent one of the best SS in the league packing. It was a complete blunder.

This is a different scenario. The Twins have a hole, and the money to plug it for the next 5 years. If this guy doesn't turn out to be Tulo it isn't going to cripple the organization. Plus, if he can't stick at SS they can move him to 1b (if his bat plays up).

We all gave them the benefit of the doubt in the Nishi sign, presuming that they got the scouting right. And they didn't. It set off a chain reaction of crap that sent us from winning the division one year to losing 96 games the next. Worst. Move. Ever. And more than any other move, it caused the early exit of BS.

It's a cautionary tale about what happens when you sign a guy. It's not a risk-free deal. You sign this kid from Cuba, and there are consequences for the roster and the budget. Now, we have a lot more budget room than we did when we signed Nishi. And we don't have a franchise shortstop, as we did when we signed Nishi. So the risk is probably worth it if he can stay at short. Not as a second baseman, though. I have no interest in signing a guy who will be worse than Dozier and who will only serve to block Rosario.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-20-2013, 07:47 AM
I liked the nishi move at the time but there were plenty who didnt and cautioned against his freakish BABIP

mike wants wins
08-20-2013, 08:20 AM
I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.
Disagree, lots of us still praise them taking the chance. Plus, they cut the cord right away. Unlike, say, Doumit......we do rip them for the specific decision, but taking the chance was good. BTW, he should have been slated for 2B, and they should have kept Hardy. The whole thing might have been different (doubt it.....).

USAFChief
08-20-2013, 08:26 AM
Disagree, lots of us still praise them taking the chance. Plus, they cut the cord right away. Unlike, say, Doumit......we do rip them for the specific decision, but taking the chance was good. BTW, he should have been slated for 2B, and they should have kept Hardy. The whole thing might have been different (doubt it.....).
He was slated for second base (where he got hurt in the first week of the regular season) after they got a look at him in spring tng and admitted he wasn't an MLB shortstop.

mike wants wins
08-20-2013, 08:29 AM
Let's just say the scouts failed us all on that one.....I still can't believe Gardy never saw tape on him before they signed him.

ThePuck
08-20-2013, 08:30 AM
He was slated for second base (where he got hurt in the first week of the regular season) after they got a look at him in spring tng and admitted he wasn't an MLB shortstop.

IMO, they were always going to have him at 2B...they talked about him playing there because of his arm even before ST happened. Then they 'made the decision' as they said in ST to play him at 2B...as if that decision wasn't made much earlier.

Not only that, but Gardy came out and said he liked Casilla at shortstop and he would compete with Hardy for the starting job at shortstop (this was about a week before Hardy was traded..and before the Nishi signing)

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-20-2013, 08:32 AM
Let's just say the scouts failed us all on that one.....I still can't believe Gardy never saw tape on him before they signed him.
Why would Grady see tape on him? Signing players (especially international ones) isn't his job

mike wants wins
08-20-2013, 08:44 AM
If I was going to hire someone to work for another manager, at my company, I'd include them in the process.......it isn't his job to sign players, but they were signing a player to start for the team, I would include the manager in that. That might not be how it works.

AROG
08-20-2013, 09:05 AM
I am the first one to say that money should not be wasted. I don't feel I have the right to spend the owners money but I like to speculate on what he should or shouldn't do in my opinion. I believe this is a great investment.

First, it appears that based on the reports, all the teams feel he wont be a short stop. That doesn't mean he wont be one. Look at Sano, every report leading into this year and most still to this point don't believe he will stay at third, but his defense gets better daily.

Second, lets say he doesn't play SS and has to move to 2B. Dozier has been a great surprise as what appears to be a capable 2B. He hasn't had the time to prove he can do that year in and year out. Dozier's defense has been great, but offense is up and down and I hope he can maintain what he has been doing, but we can't plan the future around him doing it.

Third, again assuming that Guerrero has to move to 2B. Rosario is just a prospect. He has to prove he can play. His defense has always been the biggest issue with him. We know he can hit, but can he routinely make all the plays? He is a natural OF and could make the transition back to the outfield. And this would give us a possibility of trading a good 2B in Dozier or Rosario for pitching.

Fourth, let's say that Guerrero can't hack it in a big league infield at all. If he just hits the way he has the ability to, we can find a spot. If he was athletic enough to play outfield then he is athletic enough to play 1st, or 3rd or OF. What if Sano has to go to 1B?

Conclusion for my long winded self. IMO, this is a player with versatility that is perfect for our situation of younger, unproven talent. He can play where the whole is or the players coming up can find a way to play around him. I would sign him over the great hitting Cuban prospect 9 times out of 10. There is always the chance that huge Cuban hitter could be the next Miggy. But based on the video I saw on this Guerrero, he reminds me a lot of Nomar, just a heck of a lot stronger.

Brandon
08-20-2013, 09:14 AM
If the Twins sign him the only area of concern won the team would be the rotation. THe middle infield would be fixed for the next 5 or 6 years. There is enough offense coming up that we will be real good there especially if this guy is that much above average at a week hitting position as Mauer is at Catching.

So now how do we fix this rotation problem......

mike wants wins
08-20-2013, 09:19 AM
Easier to fix the rotation problem if you have a surplus of postion players to deal from.....

TheLeviathan
08-20-2013, 12:33 PM
I liked the nishi move at the time but there were plenty who didnt and cautioned against his freakish BABIP

I would suggest his bat wasn't the reason he flamed out. It didn't help, but the majority of his issue was the Knoblauchian implosion of his defense. I can't imagine, no matter how much lower their standards are in Japan, that what we saw here was a reflection of the gold glover over there. Something about the major leagues turned him into a complete sideshow in the field.

cmathewson
08-20-2013, 01:03 PM
I would suggest his bat wasn't the reason he flamed out. It didn't help, but the majority of his issue was the Knoblauchian implosion of his defense. I can't imagine, no matter how much lower their standards are in Japan, that what we saw here was a reflection of the gold glover over there. Something about the major leagues turned him into a complete sideshow in the field.

When he was briefly called up in a last-ditch effort to save the signing, he committed six errors in three games, and otherwise looked completely lost in the filed. So, yeah, he regressed. But he won the gold glove at short, and he just never got comfortable at second, after he endured one of the dirtiest slides I've ever seen.

They paid for a gold glove shortstop. And they paid even more by dumping Hardy to make room for Nishi (whether at short or second with Casilla's alleged versatility). They got a crappy second baseman. That should never happen. And it is relevant to this signing because a lot of scouts are saying the Cuban is not a major league shortstop, but he will fetch a shortstop price. And like that deal, they would have to make room for him at second.

TheLeviathan
08-20-2013, 01:13 PM
And like that deal, they would have to make room for him at second.

This team is not so well off that they have to worry about "making room" for anyone. Add talent when it won't cost you anything and worry about having too many talents at one position later.

jokin
08-20-2013, 01:28 PM
If I was going to hire someone to work for another manager, at my company, I'd include them in the process.......it isn't his job to sign players, but they were signing a player to start for the team, I would include the manager in that. That might not be how it works.

I would hope that's how it works. Ron Gardenhire has been employed by the Twins organization for the last 25 years, the last 23 on the front lines, providing imput or making final playing decisons with the major league club. For all intents and purposes, Gardy is Senior Management. The manager should have been one of the first 2 people shown video of a prospective starter, proposed to take the place of a premier big league SS.

jokin
08-20-2013, 01:32 PM
This team is not so well off that they have to worry about "making room" for anyone. Add talent when it won't cost you anything and worry about having too many talents at one position later.

"Too many talents" and "the Minnesota Twins" are two terms rarely used together in the same sentence.

snepp
08-20-2013, 01:34 PM
"Too many talents" and "the Minnesota Twins" are two terms rarely used together in the same sentence.

Throw in a reference to the "middle infield" and you've got a trifecta.

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 02:31 PM
When he was briefly called up in a last-ditch effort to save the signing, he committed six errors in three games, and otherwise looked completely lost in the filed. So, yeah, he regressed. But he won the gold glove at short, and he just never got comfortable at second, after he endured one of the dirtiest slides I've ever seen.

They paid for a gold glove shortstop. And they paid even more by dumping Hardy to make room for Nishi (whether at short or second with Casilla's alleged versatility). They got a crappy second baseman. That should never happen. And it is relevant to this signing because a lot of scouts are saying the Cuban is not a major league shortstop, but he will fetch a shortstop price. And like that deal, they would have to make room for him at second.

The slide was clean.
Swisher was in the base path, hell he even touched 2nd base at the same time he was taking out Nishii. This is the way double plays have been broken up in America for 100 years.

Video: MIN@NYY: Nishioka injured on Swisher's takeout slide | MLB.com (http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=13555283)


Nishioka, Gardenhire and other Twins said they felt Swisher made a clean slide into second base, trying to break up a potential double play ball hit by Mark Teixeira in the seventh inning.
“He was just breaking up the double play; no issues there,” Gardenhire said. “[Nishioka] just got caught a little flat-footed. Swisher’s a clean player. That’s just a good baseball slide, trying to break up a double play. There’s no intent there.”
Swisher went to the X-Ray room to apologize to Nishioka.
“The first thing I said was, ‘I’m sorry, man. I thought you were going to jump,” Swisher said. “And he said, ‘It was my fault. I should have gotten out of the way.’ I was just trying to break up a double play. I didn't mean to do that. Especially with a guy like that, just trying to make his mark over here.”


http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/119432044.html

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 02:34 PM
I would hope that's how it works. Ron Gardenhire has been employed by the Twins organization for the last 25 years, the last 23 on the front lines, providing imput or making final playing decisons with the major league club. For all intents and purposes, Gardy is Senior Management. The manager should have been one of the first 2 people shown video of a prospective starter, proposed to take the place of a premier big league SS.


Gardy never liked Hardy, from day 1. Perhaps they asked Gardy to watch film of Nishii, and Gardy said something like, "He can't be worse than Hardy, just pull the trigger." We don't know.
Terry and him have always had a pretty good relationship so I can't imagine they intentionally kept him out of the loop.

ThePuck
08-20-2013, 02:41 PM
The slide was clean.
Swisher was in the base path, hell he even touched 2nd base at the same time he was taking out Nishii. This is the way double plays have been broken up in America for 100 years.

Video: MIN@NYY: Nishioka injured on Swisher's takeout slide | MLB.com (http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=13555283)

Exactly...nothing at all dirty with that slide. A middle IF can't just plant his feet where he did and throw and not expect to be hit. I'm speculating that perhaps in Japan, baserunners don't attempt to break up DPs by taking players out at 2B. It was one of the first things I learned as a shortstop. Get the out, then get out of the way.

I wonder how the phantom play at 2B on double plays, which is allowed in order to protect players from injury, will be affected by the new replay system? I hope managers are smart enough to continue to let those go.

mike wants wins
08-20-2013, 02:43 PM
Or, players could just try to slide into the base, and not try to take out players. That's also an option. Not sure how I feel about that option, but it is an option.

diehardtwinsfan
08-20-2013, 02:45 PM
MLBTR is reporting that the Redsox are out of the sweepstakes.

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 02:47 PM
Or, players could just try to slide into the base, and not try to take out players. That's also an option. Not sure how I feel about that option, but it is an option.

Why? It's meant to try to break up the DP, not to try to hurt anyone.
If the MI isn't a moron, he won't ever get hurt. It's meant to cause you to rush your throw, drop the ball, etc., no baserunner expects the MI to just stand there and take it, hence Swisher's shock that Nishii didn't move out of the way.
It's Nishii's fault for not knowing, and the Twins fault for not teaching him.
The takeout slide is not dangerous if the MI reacts properly.
Should you just stop running and concede the double play?

nicksaviking
08-20-2013, 03:03 PM
Gardy never liked Hardy, from day 1. Perhaps they asked Gardy to watch film of Nishii, and Gardy said something like, "He can't be worse than Hardy, just pull the trigger." We don't know.
Terry and him have always had a pretty good relationship so I can't imagine they intentionally kept him out of the loop.

I don't know that Gardy didn't like Hardy, he may have just not liked his approach to hitting, namely grip-it and rip-it to LF.

Not surprisingly Hardy did just that on his way to a great season in Baltimore and the following year the Twins had no problem letting Willingham and Plouffe employee Hardy's approach.

nicksaviking
08-20-2013, 03:11 PM
Anyone can play SS, it just depends on what level of liability a club is willing to endure. There are plenty of shortstops today, who if re-evaluated by the same scouts as Guererro, would likely be told that they aren't a shortstop.

I seriously doubt any scouts would say Asdrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie were shortstops if re-evaluated. You also have players like Hardy or Jhonny Peralta who appear too big, stiff and slow to play the position. I'd bet good money that if everything was equal, plenty of scouts would say those two are incapable of playing the position.

Major Leauge Ready
08-20-2013, 03:26 PM
What if you had to choose between Abreu or Guerrero? 1st base is the easiest position to field but Abreu sounds like he could be a beast. Joe could still play 1st for 50-75 games and let Abreu DH. I guess we could do that with Morales too. Morales would be a great sign if we could get him for no more than a 3-year contract.

I could get behind Morales and Guerrero as our off-season for position players. Add Phil Hughes or better to the rotation and things are looking up. I can dream, right?

nicksaviking
08-20-2013, 03:29 PM
What if you had to choose between Abreu or Guerrero?

Abreu. I'd always take the offense.

cmb0252
08-20-2013, 03:36 PM
Anyone can play SS, it just depends on what level of liability a club is willing to endure. There are plenty of shortstops today, who if re-evaluated by the same scouts as Guererro, would likely be told that they aren't a shortstop.

I seriously doubt any scouts would say Asdrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie were shortstops if re-evaluated. You also have players like Hardy or Jhonny Peralta who appear too big, stiff and slow to play the position. I'd bet good money that if everything was equal, plenty of scouts would say those two are incapable of playing the position.

While this is true, a team with the least amount of K's, second highest BBA, and 5th highest ERA should worry about poor defense.

cmb0252
08-20-2013, 03:38 PM
What if you had to choose between Abreu or Guerrero? 1st base is the easiest position to field but Abreu sounds like he could be a beast. Joe could still play 1st for 50-75 games and let Abreu DH. I guess we could do that with Morales too. Morales would be a great sign if we could get him for no more than a 3-year contract.

I could get behind Morales and Guerrero as our off-season for position players. Add Phil Hughes or better to the rotation and things are looking up. I can dream, right?

Abreu and it isn't even close for me. I love his bat and even if 1B is easier to fill that doesn't change we will have a gap there next year.

AROG
08-20-2013, 03:54 PM
Abreu and it isn't even close for me. I love his bat and even if 1B is easier to fill that doesn't change we will have a gap there next year.

I take Guerrero. He could be a SS with less range or play anywhere else. There is flexibility in his position. Since we don't know for sure that Sano can play a big league 3B and we don't know if Rosario can stick at 2B defensively either, we would have options. Abreu can hit, no doubt about it, but so can Guerrero and he lends himself to be an option a lot of places which is good with all the moving pieces we have coming up.

Now if we get different coaches, I would say Abreu, but with who we have, I say Guerrero.

nicksaviking
08-20-2013, 04:09 PM
While this is true, a team with the least amount of K's, second highest BBA, and 5th highest ERA should worry about poor defense.

No doubt. Although it seems like it should be easier to find 3-4 starters with a reasonable K% than 8 position players with strong defense to compensate for the fact that they have 5 starters who don't.

But dang it, playing old school baseball is worth it I guess.

Major Leauge Ready
08-20-2013, 05:36 PM
No doubt. Although it seems like it should be easier to find 3-4 starters with a reasonable K% than 8 position players with strong defense to compensate for the fact that they have 5 starters who don't.

But dang it, playing old school baseball is worth it I guess.

I think the K rate gets a little too much hype. Just to make the math easy. If the average start is 6 innings, the difference between starting pitchers with a 6K/9 rate and a 9K/9 rate is two less balls in play.

I like the idea of Abreu long-term. He and Sano in the middle of the order would be great. However, we have plenty of budget and I could see Ryan going for Morales if he could be signed to a term of 3 years or less. That would be a good bridge strategy to Vargas, Walker, Harrison, etc. Did I read they have played Kepler some at first?

Anyway, Morales and Guerrero would be nice and it staggers the spending which will is smart. I would also be very happy with Abreu and Santana for 3 years. Santana is going to get 4 years from someone, so that is not likely to happen. Hughes would be a good consolation prize.

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 05:38 PM
I think the K rate gets a little too much hype. Just to make the math easy. If the average start is 6 innings, the difference between starting pitchers with a 6K/9 rate and a 9K/9 rate is two less balls in play.

I like the idea of Abreu long-term. He and Sano in the middle of the order would be great. However, we have plenty of budget and I could see Ryan going for Morales if he could be signed to a term of 3 years or less. That would be a good bridge strategy to Vargas, Walker, Harrison, etc. Did I read they have played Kepler some at first?

Anyway, Morales and Guerrero would be nice and it staggers the spending which will is smart. I would also be very happy with Abreu and Santana for 3 years. Santana is going to get 4 years from someone, so that is not likely to happen. Hughes would be a good consolation prize.

But we don't have guys with 6 K/9, we have guys with 4 K/9.

cmathewson
08-20-2013, 06:17 PM
Throw in a reference to the "middle infield" and you've got a trifecta.

I disagree. Rosario is the real deal. I suppose you could move him back to the outfield. But he's said to be a natural at second. And he's worked hard for two years to learn the position. He's a better hitter than Guerrero. So if you just leave it up for competition, and the better man wins, you've just signed a utility infielder for starting shortstop money.

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 06:18 PM
I disagree. Rosario is the real deal. I suppose you could move him back to the outfield. But he's said to be a natural at second. And he's worked hard for two years to learn the position. He's a better hitter than Guerrero. So if you just leave it up for competition, and the better man wins, you've just signed a utility infielder for starting shortstop money.

TK said last night during the AA broadcast that Rosario is NOT a natural 2B, but works very hard at it so should be able to stick.

nfisch22
08-20-2013, 07:17 PM
Alexander Guerrero Perez Pelotero Cubano Shortstop - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpnTQPgxrYc)

Here's a video of Guerrero. He looks to have a good arm but his torso and actions seem to be very stiff. His swing is short and quick through the zone but I don't like how much movement he has in his load. He takes a huge step with that front leg

USAFChief
08-20-2013, 07:44 PM
I think the K rate gets a little too much hype. Just to make the math easy. If the average start is 6 innings, the difference between starting pitchers with a 6K/9 rate and a 9K/9 rate is two less balls in play.


Keeping the math easy, over 30 starts that's 60 balls in play. Assume a .300 BABIP and that's 18 hits, which ignores non-K's might also be HBPs, BBs, or Es.

Now multiply that times 5 starters, in the case of the Twins.

And as pointed out above, 6 K/9 is generous for the Twins staff.

cmathewson
08-20-2013, 07:56 PM
TK said last night during the AA broadcast that Rosario is NOT a natural 2B, but works very hard at it so should be able to stick.

Good to know. In TK I trust.

Mr. Brooks
08-20-2013, 08:14 PM
Good to know. In TK I trust.

Yeah, that was the observation I took from last night's broadcast, that TK was literally born to evaluate and develop baseball talent. I was on the edge of my seat last night at times. The Twins are lucky to have him in even his limited role within the organization.
He is to discussing baseball as Stephen Hawking is to discussing the Universe.

old nurse
08-20-2013, 10:03 PM
Keeping the math easy, over 30 starts that's 60 balls in play. Assume a .300 BABIP and that's 18 hits, which ignores non-K's might also be HBPs, BBs, or Es.

Now multiply that times 5 starters, in the case of the Twins.

And as pointed out above, 6 K/9 is generous for the Twins staff.

As you can tell by tonight's game, it is the at bats when you are not striking people out that will kill you. Porcello got the 6 K, the other 15 batters pretty much had fun. Just imagine how much more fun if they had a SS that could hit a HR. Well, a little more often.

Kobs
08-20-2013, 10:56 PM
On BYTO, I defended the Nishi move heavily and ultimately was wrong about him. But I absolutely stand by the thinking. We aggressively went after a talent outside our usual M.O. at a position we had been awful at for years. Our execution was poor, but I still praise the thinking behind it.

Some people will do what you say here and some will bend their principles to defend the team no matter what on the flip side.....that ain't me.

Nishioka was hardly an aggressive move. In fact, his relatively low posting fee was a red flag from the jump. The rest of the league wasn't interested in him.

TheLeviathan
08-20-2013, 11:06 PM
Nishioka was hardly an aggressive move. In fact, his relatively low posting fee was a red flag from the jump. The rest of the league wasn't interested in him.

We're talking about the Twins here. Relative to that, Nish was very aggressive.

jorgenswest
08-20-2013, 11:19 PM
The Twins only risk money in this case. He would not be replacing a Hardy. The Twins would not lose a draft pick.

Similar to Nishioka, there isn't a lot of interest. He comes with questions about his defense at SS. However, the Twins still need to outbid the few others. The likelihood, as remote as it is, that Guerrero will be a solid major league SS is greater than Santana or anyone else in the organization.

diehardtwinsfan
08-21-2013, 07:41 AM
What if you had to choose between Abreu or Guerrero?

I'm not sure that they Twins would have to choose. The money is there to pay these guys during the next wave given that they won't have hardly any big contracts at that point (minus Mauer).

That said, if it's a choice, it will come down to a few things. With Guerro, the questions I would have are as follows:

1) Can he stick at short defensively?
2) What is a reasonable projection for his bat? .750 OPS? .800? .900?
3) Are Rosario and Dozier the real deal and is moving Dozier back to short an option?

For Abreau, I don't see as many questions. I have a tough time believing that the bat isn't for real, and defense at first isn't that big of a deal either. It's looking more and more like Plouffe and Parmelee aren't the answer at 1st long term, and with Justin in decline, it is starting to look like 1B might be a position of need for the next wave. I haven't given up on either of them, but neither have exactly forced the issue.

The projections that seem to stick in this thread for Gurrero was a .750 OPS with defense that would be nothing special. If that's the case, I think I'd rather roll the dice with a Rosario/Dozier combo up the middle and put all the cash into Abreau (unless I'm wrong about the projected OPS). Abreau's bat is a difference maker and having him and having a lineup of Buxton, Rosario, Mauer, Abreau, Sano, Arcia, Dozier, Hicks, some DH (or something like that) makes me absolutely drool. I'm pretty sure that lineup could make this pitching staff a .500 team.

mike wants wins
08-21-2013, 08:17 AM
I too would rather have Abreu, but they have the money for both.....

AROG
08-21-2013, 08:57 AM
Alexander Guerrero Perez Pelotero Cubano Shortstop - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpnTQPgxrYc)

Here's a video of Guerrero. He looks to have a good arm but his torso and actions seem to be very stiff. His swing is short and quick through the zone but I don't like how much movement he has in his load. He takes a huge step with that front leg

I disagree with the negatives you pointed out. His hands are busy until the ball is in flight, at which time they become completely still, they are in a great position to strike from. His leg kick seems large, but his foot hardly moves, it is more of a timing mechanism then anything. He has a smooth easy swing, short and compact through the zone with great extension.

birdwatcher
08-21-2013, 09:46 AM
[QUOTE=Mr. Brooks;147833]Terry Ryan won't spend what it takes to sign a legit Cuban.[/Q

He hasn't in the past.

kab21
08-21-2013, 12:29 PM
I think I might lose it if one more person says don't sign him because he won't stick at SS and the Twins already have Rosario. I like Rosario a lot but he's not a guaranteed thing and you can't even say that Rosario will hit better than Guerrero (or vice versa).

I think most would prefer signing Abreu but I wouldn't be surprised if Abreu got 80M while Guerrero is probably in the 30-40M range.

Kobs
08-21-2013, 04:51 PM
Similar to Nishioka, there isn't a lot of interest. He comes with questions about his defense at SS. However, the Twins still need to outbid the few others. The likelihood, as remote as it is, that Guerrero will be a solid major league SS is greater than Santana or anyone else in the organization.

I would not make a judgement that there isn't a lot of interest in this guy. Nishioka's posting fee was nothing for a guy with the "gold glove SS/batting champion" pedigree he was carrying. Unlike this Cuban fella, no one was going to be scared off Nishioka at that price point. Nobody wanted him at any price.

Tpups21
08-21-2013, 06:07 PM
Just don't see the Twins winning a bidding war for Guerrero. Not sold on him as a shortstop either.

nfisch22
08-24-2013, 12:11 AM
I disagree with the negatives you pointed out. His hands are busy until the ball is in flight, at which time they become completely still, they are in a great position to strike from. His leg kick seems large, but his foot hardly moves, it is more of a timing mechanism then anything. He has a smooth easy swing, short and compact through the zone with great extension.

I wasn't saying anything bad about his hands. I personally love his swing. He's got serious ability to drive the ball. That big step though still bothers me even though I know it's just for timing. I would just rather see a smaller step for timing

S.
08-26-2013, 01:48 PM
No surprise, but currently sounding like we shouldn't be holding our breath for Abreu or Guerrero. Really getting sick of hearing so much about pricetag BS in all facets of our team. If they don't like a player and they have some real reasons, I can at least maybe, somewhat come to terms with that even if I disagree, but the price excuse is beyond old at this point. Oh, need a nice new field to be able to have higher payroll. Oh, cant sign any good FA pitchers cuz they're "overpriced". Oh, wont eat any of Morneau's salary in a trade. Oh, probably going to only loosely monitor potential cuban superstars because they have "lofty price tags". Sick of it. Price should NOT be the reason unless we're talking ridiculous $200M contracts or something.

I guess there is still plenty of season and the whole offseason ahead of us, but I'm not really holding my breath for that either. Please prove me wrong, Twins, and take some risks and make some moves that aren't complete dumpster diving.* Please.


"Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports that Abreu's lofty price tag will likely lead the Twins to "loosely monitor" him rather than become serious players for his services. He adds that the Twins are still in on Guerrero but not as deeply as other suitors (Twitter (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/371988078983786496) links (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/371996087088713729))."


Edit: *I dont even mean that it has to be Abreu or Guerrero, but good lord, do something better than signing some more Correias and Marquis' and praying it somehow works out better than the last 3 years.

mike wants wins
08-26-2013, 01:49 PM
Shocking, shocking I say.

nicksaviking
08-26-2013, 02:03 PM
You guys need to lay off. The Twins are saving their money for the zero-risk, can't-miss superstar that becomes available but the other 29 teams aren't going to bid on.

That, or a half dozen replacement level players instead.

mike wants wins
08-26-2013, 02:05 PM
And, nick, that player has to be availalbe 3 or 4 years from now, when every prospect has worked out, and they have only 1 hole to fill.....

PseudoSABR
08-26-2013, 02:10 PM
And to appease the negative nancys, Wolfson also tweeted this:

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson) 5h (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/371992372172693504) @enge0280 (https://twitter.com/enge0280) They may. I just don't get the feel it'll be Abreu. They're still in on SS Guerrero. Bet they'll be in on Japan P Masahiro Tanaka.

S.
08-26-2013, 02:17 PM
I'm a realistic nancy. Unfortunately, reality in Twins Town is depressing at the moment.

I bet they'll be "in" on Tanaka until they realize so are a ton of other teams and he's gonna cost real money to sign. I'll be happy to eat a giant pile of crow if they go out and make some splashes and prove me wrong, but we're still talking the same FO that was gonna get some pretty darn good pitchers last offseason, in their words.

On the Tanaka side, reports on him keep sounding real good.
"In a subscription-only piece, Badler also profiles Tanaka's most recent start (http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/masahiro-tanaka-game-report/) in Japan, during which he whiffed eight hitters over seven scoreless innings to improve to 18-0 and drop his ERA to 1.15. Badler notes that Tanaka has "arguably the best splitter in the world," and reached 97 mph with his heater on his 108th pitch of the night."

mike wants wins
08-26-2013, 02:26 PM
And to appease the negative nancys, Wolfson also tweeted this:

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)5h (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/371992372172693504) @enge0280 (https://twitter.com/enge0280) They may. I just don't get the feel it'll be Abreu. They're still in on SS Guerrero. Bet they'll be in on Japan P Masahiro Tanaka.

Would love them to try.....and be successful.

Siehbiscuit
08-26-2013, 02:29 PM
First of all, to eat a PILE of crow is ridiculous. It's serioulsy nasty sh*#!

Secondly, the article on Tanaka makes me willing to eat a pile of crow to sign him.

Winston Smith
08-26-2013, 02:42 PM
Saturday Mackey talked to Jim Pohlad and he said again money isn't an issue. There is money to spend. But it seems like all these deals come down to lack money. Somebody, me thinks, is not being fully honest.
http://brightlightsfilm.com/30/30_images/crusoe_magoo.jpg

nicksaviking
08-26-2013, 02:45 PM
I want to have high hopes for these MLB ready or near MLB ready international free agents but it's difficult considering how gunshy Ryan is. He has never proven to be willing to make a move anywhere close to resembling the boldness of one of these players.

I'm not trying to start another war but I just don't think he has the constitution to pay the money or the years for one of these guys. I hope I'm wrong but his personality always seems to portray a man who stubbornly refuses to go beyond his comfort zone because he fears making a mistake more than he craves to make a good deal.

Maybe he'll get lucky and every other team will view Guerrero as a 2B instead of a SS and leave Ryan able to offer a less ulcer-inducing deal for around $5 million per year. Of course if Ryan sticks him at 2B he'll be rippable for once again neglecting positions of need.

howieramone
08-26-2013, 03:40 PM
Saturday Mackey talked to Jim Pohlad and he said again money isn't an issue. There is money to spend. But it seems like all these deals come down to lack money. Somebody, me thinks, is not being fully honest.
http://brightlightsfilm.com/30/30_images/crusoe_magoo.jpg

Ryan has said on numerous occasions he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. He has never once blamed the Pohlads for not providing the money he needs to help the ball club. How much more honest can you be?

Terry Ryan is rebuilding the Twins as quickly as possible with the full and complete support of the Pohlads. I've seen numerous articles in the national media acknowledging the fine work Ryan has done and predicting an early turnaround for the team.

You don't have to like or agree with it, but that's what's happening, and the Twins are not the type of organization to panic and abruptly change course.

jokin
08-26-2013, 03:44 PM
Ryan has said on numerous occasions he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. He has never once blamed the Pohlads for not providing the money he needs to help the ball club. How much more honest can you be?

Terry Ryan is rebuilding the Twins as quickly as possible with the full and complete support of the Pohlads. I've seen numerous articles in the national media acknowledging the fine work Ryan has done and predicting an early turnaround for the team.

You don't have to like or agree with it, but that's what's happening, and the Twins are not the type of organization to panic and abruptly change course.

Again I humbly ask, could you please provide some of the links to these articles?

messier
08-26-2013, 04:05 PM
I guess I don't know anything really about Tanaka. I've looked at his stats and he's not a strikeout pitcher so what's the point. They need guys like Detroits guys. Starters that are capable of getting 10 K's every night.

Willihammer
08-26-2013, 04:23 PM
I guess I don't know anything really about Tanaka. I've looked at his stats and he's not a strikeout pitcher so what's the point. They need guys like Detroits guys. Starters that are capable of getting 10 K's every night.

Video here (volume):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVUrIeSuCrM

He strikes out over 20% of batters. The split looks to have developed into a legit out pitch for lefties, and the slider was always good. IMO he'd stick in an MLB rotation no problem and in the Twins, he'd instantly become the no. 1.

Erock
08-26-2013, 04:36 PM
His career SO rate in Japan is higher than Verlander's in the MLB. Not that it would translate directly, but he sure as hell would strike out more than anyone on our current squad.

Oxtung
08-26-2013, 04:49 PM
Video here (volume):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVUrIeSuCrM

He strikes out over 20% of batters. The split looks to have developed into a legit out pitch for lefties, and the slider was always good. IMO he'd stick in an MLB rotation no problem and in the Twins, he'd instantly become the no. 1.

Four things about that video:

1) Almost every time a lefty came up to bat I thought, "Holy Crap" there is Ichiro!
2) Check out the leg kick from the batter at 1:19. Awesome. Just Awesome.
3) I especially like the strike out at 1:28. That would be fun to see.
4) This pitcher has way too much emotion for the Twins. Check out 32 seconds into the video.

Chance
08-26-2013, 05:15 PM
I would sign him, twice.

PseudoSABR
08-26-2013, 05:22 PM
I'm a realistic nancy.Well, all nancies think that about themselves. There's reasons (budget room, sending scouts, Nishi, Sano) to believe that they the Twins have the capacity to make a big splash with an international signing. I'm not sure that they will make such a signing for a number of reasonable factors (risk, talent, cost, etc.) as well. To complain about something that has not yet happened is premature guesswork, not realism.

And while I don't think that the Twins are likely to sign either, I'm not going to start chastising the Twins until I see how the process shakes out.

cmathewson
08-26-2013, 05:30 PM
Saturday Mackey talked to Jim Pohlad and he said again money isn't an issue. There is money to spend. But it seems like all these deals come down to lack money. Somebody, me thinks, is not being fully honest.
http://brightlightsfilm.com/30/30_images/crusoe_magoo.jpg

I don't think Ryan and Pohlad are on the same page money wise. Ryan used to share a hotel room with Smith to save Old Man Pohlad a buck. Not 'cause it was required. Just ;cause Ryan's a cheap SOB. And rumor has it, Smith snores and is a serial flatulator. And he still roomed with him. So that's how cheap Ryan is. To the core. Willingham is the only decent FA he's ever signed, and that was a discount after losing Cuddyer. So he probably still counts those pennies in the big jar and smiles.

S.
08-26-2013, 05:30 PM
I'm not gonna pretend I know a ton about pitching mechanics and all the little details, but his delivery looks really good to me. Absolutely filthy split. Nice looking slider. Can throw heat. Not really sure whats not to like. Sure, sometimes Japanese pitchers dont work out in the Majors, but our current rotation proves that you dont need to be Japanese to not work out in the majors.

drjim
08-26-2013, 05:43 PM
I don't think Ryan and Pohlad are on the same page money wise. Ryan used to share a hotel room with Smith to save Old Man Pohlad a buck. Not 'cause it was required. Just ;cause Ryan's a cheap SOB. And rumor has it, Smith snores and is a serial flatulator. And he still roomed with him. So that's how cheap Ryan is. To the core. Willingham is the only decent FA he's ever signed, and that was a discount after losing Cuddyer. So he probably still counts those pennies in the big jar and smiles.

This may be true but on the other hand Ryan has committed almost $50 million to free agents in two seasons.

I know we endlessly debate this on the board but a very good argument can be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap the past two seasons.

The ultimate point is that posts like these are nothing more than guesses. Ryan's actions in his previous tenure show nothing about how he will act this time. We really don't know what Ryan will do with money when he has a good team.

FWIW, my guess is he will be more aggressive locking up his own players, he will be more willing to trade B level prospects, and he will make some free agent signings above and beyond what we have seen before. I don't expect Greinke like signings mostly because teams with similar revenue structures don't make them. I do grant these are guesses on my part as well and there is no actual evidence to back it up (though I would say the opportunity has yet to present itself one way or the other quite yet).

howieramone
08-26-2013, 05:48 PM
I'm not gonna pretend I know a ton about pitching mechanics and all the little details, but his delivery looks really good to me. Absolutely filthy split. Nice looking slider. Can throw heat. Not really sure whats not to like. Sure, sometimes Japanese pitchers dont work out in the Majors, but our current rotation proves that you dont need to be Japanese to not work out in the majors.

As I understand it, the Twins are in Japan right now taking a closer look. I hope every thing checks out and the Twins make a bid. If that's the case, it appears there are 10+ teams interested and bids may well be in the 50M to 75M range including posting fee.

PseudoSABR
08-26-2013, 05:51 PM
Sorry, forgot I'm not allowed to make some assumptions about the Twins, on a Twins forum, based up previous actions by the Twins FO. I never said anything I said was gospel, and I've said I'll be very happy if they prove me wrong. A very large part of this forum is about discussing what-ifs. If that bothers you as much as it seems, then don't engage in those conversations.Look, please do as you like. Censorship was hardly the point of my post. But you can't go on making assumptions (that benefit your analysis) and expect people to see you as a realist. It's always the pessimist who insists on being proved wrong (rather than legitimizing their own point of view (hence the assumptions)).

S.
08-26-2013, 06:01 PM
Double edit: Lets just save ourselves the hassle and drop it here. I cant imagine you're going to listen to what I have to say, and clearly I disagree with what you have to say, so lets try not to turn this thread into another bicker-fest. Hell, we probably shouldn't even really be discussing Tanaka in here.

snepp
08-26-2013, 06:02 PM
It's always the pessimist who insists on being proved wrong


No, it's not, unless you're reading a different version of TD than everyone else is.

old nurse
08-26-2013, 06:13 PM
No, it's not, unless you're reading a different version of TD than everyone else is.

When in Rome, do as the Romans.

TheLeviathan
08-26-2013, 07:09 PM
At this point, the only reasonable assumption is we won't sign these guys. Because evidence of the teams tendencies, the odds against you just based on the number of teams bidding, teams poor record, and the GMs stated thoughts on long term deals for pitching all weigh HEAVILY against any evidence to the contrary.

Ryan had a chance years ago to prove that for the right guy - healthy, dominant, hometown favorite, Cy Young caliber - he would pony up. And what he did was stall and stall until he could pass the burden off on a green GM. The usual refrain that "we don't know how Ryan will act" defies reality.

You are welcome to hope for a change in behavior, but don't pretend you are equal grounds of evidence. You're not, guesses can still be better supported than others and this isn't even close.

Meanwhile, I will share your hope.

drjim
08-26-2013, 07:30 PM
At this point, the only reasonable assumption is we won't sign these guys. Because evidence of the teams tendencies, the odds against you just based on the number of teams bidding, teams poor record, and the GMs stated thoughts on long term deals for pitching all weigh HEAVILY against any evidence to the contrary.

When looked at this way, the odds for any specific team is that they will not sign one of these guys. 30 teams with 3 guys available.


Ryan had a chance years ago to prove that for the right guy - healthy, dominant, hometown favorite, Cy Young caliber - he would pony up. And what he did was stall and stall until he could pass the burden off on a green GM. The usual refrain that "we don't know how Ryan will act" defies reality.

In 2007 the Twins were in nowhere near the same position financially as they are now. I don't think this comparison has any bearing on what will happen going forward, though it should be noted that Ryan did sign an initial 4 year extension, who just balked at the 5-6 year extension at huge money, much like every small market team would do. Ryan's mistake, as you alluded to, was not trading him earlier and leaving the mess for the new GM to clean up.


You are welcome to hope for a change in behavior, but don't pretend you are equal grounds of evidence. You're not, guesses can still be better supported than others and this isn't even close.

Meanwhile, I will share your hope.

I don't think I claimed equal grounds of evidence. I am pretty sure I stated clearly that there really is no evidence to support my claim, but there is also no true evidence against my position because we have never seen Terry Ryan operate with a good team under the new financial reality.

The little evidence I can gather in support of my position is that 1) He has spent more on free agents the past two years than he did all his other years combined (by a significant margin) and 2) He has locked up any player even remotely worthwhile (ie Perkins, Burton, Doumit).

diehardtwinsfan
08-26-2013, 07:33 PM
At this point, the only reasonable assumption is we won't sign these guys. Because evidence of the teams tendencies, the odds against you just based on the number of teams bidding, teams poor record, and the GMs stated thoughts on long term deals for pitching all weigh HEAVILY against any evidence to the contrary.

Ryan had a chance years ago to prove that for the right guy - healthy, dominant, hometown favorite, Cy Young caliber - he would pony up. And what he did was stall and stall until he could pass the burden off on a green GM. The usual refrain that "we don't know how Ryan will act" defies reality.

You are welcome to hope for a change in behavior, but don't pretend you are equal grounds of evidence. You're not, guesses can still be better supported than others and this isn't even close.

Meanwhile, I will share your hope.

The one thing we have to remember is that they were playing with dome revenues when Santana was nearing FA and not with Target Field... and they had to lock up some kid named Mauer too.

I don't have high expectations that they will sign Tanaka, Abreau, or Gonzales, but unlike then, they have the ability to be competitive. I'd be thrilled if they got one of these guys, and I lean towards Tanaka or Abreau right now... not that I don't like Gonzalez, but if it's questionable he sticks at SS, I'd rather go for the sure bat or arm.

TheLeviathan
08-26-2013, 07:38 PM
When looked at this way, the odds for any specific team is that they will not sign one of these guys. 30 teams with 3 guys available.

Absolutely, the degree of likelihood is relatively close. Especially for mid market teams.


In 2007 the Twins were in nowhere near the same position financially as they are now.

They knew they'd have a new ballpark and the revenues to go with it. You could argue they were choosing between Mauer and Santana, but the truth is Ryan bungled Santana any way you cut it. So we have seen how he handles top flight pitching that met every box on the checklist for "shell out big cash". And he still didn't do it.


I don't think I claimed equal grounds of evidence.

No, you didn't, but then you go on to claim no "true evidence". Well, sure. But if I asked you what genre Kanye's next number 1 track will be in and you said "Rap" and I said "Blue Grass" - you think those guesses are on equally footing?

You can spin it however you'd like, the truth is that there is far more evidence (some that is not even Twins specific like the difficulty of bidding against many other teams) to the contrary of your position. That, by it's very nature, makes it a more well-grounded guess. But, as with any guess, you could be wrong and Kanye might be blowing into a jug and playing the fiddle on his next album. It's just far less likely. Ditto the situation here, at least until some direct evidence to support you starts to shine through.

cmathewson
08-26-2013, 07:39 PM
This may be true but on the other hand Ryan has committed almost $50 million to free agents in two seasons.

I know we endlessly debate this on the board but a very good argument can be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap the past two seasons.

The ultimate point is that posts like these are nothing more than guesses. Ryan's actions in his previous tenure show nothing about how he will act this time. We really don't know what Ryan will do with money when he has a good team.

FWIW, my guess is he will be more aggressive locking up his own players, he will be more willing to trade B level prospects, and he will make some free agent signings above and beyond what we have seen before. I don't expect Greinke like signings mostly because teams with similar revenue structures don't make them. I do grant these are guesses on my part as well and there is no actual evidence to back it up (though I would say the opportunity has yet to present itself one way or the other quite yet).


I want to believe you. Really I do. I have defended his thriftiness over the years. And it worked when he didn't have much budget. But now that he's flush with cash, I don't understand being overly frugal. I think of my own business decisions. If I have budget, I spend it lest I lose it next year. The only way I can make my company money is by wisely spending my budget. I consider myself a failure if I leave money on the table. So I just don't get leaving $40 million on the table when there were good places to spend it. I will take some risks with the money I have, cause I know it is the only way to produce value for my company. Nobody wins by playing it safe. You can be mediocre. But you can't win.

I have yet to see him take risks with money, and that covers almost 20 years of decisions. He sometimes spends what it takes to keep the best players produced by the system. But he never has spent what it took to get a really excellent free agent from outside the organization. And his bargain basement free agents are legendary failures, real embarrassments for the organization. I don't have to name them. Most can say 10 off the top of their heads.

The definition of insanity is keep doing the same things and expect different results. I have stopped expecting different results from him. I hope he surprises me. But I am not holding my breath.

old nurse
08-26-2013, 07:58 PM
The distinction between the international free agents and the 6 year free agents available to sign are twofold. The 6 year free agent at some point in a long term contract will be in decline. How steep or soon is the unknown. The international free agents will be in their prime but what their ceiling is unknown. We will see what Ryan does. If the scouts like the players and Ryan trusts the scouts, there is hope.

drjim
08-26-2013, 08:11 PM
I want to believe you. Really I do. I have defended his thriftiness over the years. And it worked when he didn't have much budget. But now that he's flush with cash, I don't understand being overly frugal. I think of my own business decisions. If I have budget, I spend it lest I lose it next year. The only way I can make my company money is by wisely spending my budget. I consider myself a failure if I leave money on the table. So I just don't get leaving $40 million on the table when there were good places to spend it. I will take some risks with the money I have, cause I know it is the only way to produce value for my company. Nobody wins by playing it safe. You can be mediocre. But you can't win.

I have yet to see him take risks with money, and that covers almost 20 years of decisions. He sometimes spends what it takes to keep the best players produced by the system. But he never has spent what it took to get a really excellent free agent from outside the organization. And his bargain basement free agents are legendary failures, real embarrassments for the organization. I don't have to name them. Most can say 10 off the top of their heads.

The definition of insanity is keep doing the same things and expect different results. I have stopped expecting different results from him. I hope he surprises me. But I am not holding my breath.

He is definitely risk adverse, I don't think that has changed. I'm pretty confident the payroll will be less next year than it was this year. And it will be the right decision.

I just don't think the comparison of your industry and his will ever perfectly work for a variety of reasons. For a quick example, would you spend money this year that locked you into future obligations for a diminishing (or non-productive) asset in future years? That would be a disaster, especially if you had expectations of future growth in 2-3 years that may require additional investment. I imagine you would spend unused budget on one off expenses that would result in growth, that would be a wise investment. Ryan tried to do that with Saunders but it didn't work.

Joe A. Preusser
08-26-2013, 08:21 PM
Absolutely, the degree of likelihood is relatively close. Especially for mid market teams.



They knew they'd have a new ballpark and the revenues to go with it. You could argue they were choosing between Mauer and Santana, but the truth is Ryan bungled Santana any way you cut it. So we have seen how he handles top flight pitching that met every box on the checklist for "shell out big cash". And he still didn't do it.



No, you didn't, but then you go on to claim no "true evidence". Well, sure. But if I asked you what genre Kanye's next number 1 track will be in and you said "Rap" and I said "Blue Grass" - you think those guesses are on equally footing?

You can spin it however you'd like, the truth is that there is far more evidence (some that is not even Twins specific like the difficulty of bidding against many other teams) to the contrary of your position. That, by it's very nature, makes it a more well-grounded guess. But, as with any guess, you could be wrong and Kanye might be blowing into a jug and playing the fiddle on his next album. It's just far less likely. Ditto the situation here, at least until some direct evidence to support you starts to shine through.

I would listen to that bluegrass album.

TheLeviathan
08-26-2013, 08:39 PM
I would listen to that bluegrass album.

The beauty of hope, no? You can always get an amazing surprise! :)

TheLeviathan
08-26-2013, 08:42 PM
If the scouts like the players and Ryan trusts the scouts, there is hope.

Unfortunately, if the Twins don't make any signings it's backdoors like this that allow people to continue to assert that we "don't know" what Ryan would do or that the situation wsan't right, or whatever. There is a never ending supply of weak supports people can concoct.

The problem is that the much stronger evidence contradicts them, unfortunately they continue to put the burden of proving the future on other people and asserting that their guess is just as good as anyone else. When, in fact, it isn't - even if it comes true in the future.

nicksaviking
08-26-2013, 08:44 PM
[QUOTE=drjim;157219]
In 2007 the Twins were in nowhere near the same position financially as they are now. I don't think this comparison has any bearing on what will happen going forward, though it should be noted that Ryan did sign an initial 4 year extension, who just balked at the 5-6 year extension at huge money, much like every small market team would do. Ryan's mistake, as you alluded to, was not trading him earlier and leaving the mess for the new GM to clean up.
[QUOTE]

I seriously doubt many if any GM's would have balked at extending their 25-year-old, left-handed, Cy Young Award winner a six year extension, especially the small market clubs. You don't think the Rays would have only been offering four years do you?

It was risk adverse to the point of obscene foolishness. He was fine at his job when it entailed dealing with small payrolls and low upside players. It was hard to make a mistake when the public was automatically going to blame any misstep on the frugal owner.

However, he has not even attempted to handle anything close to a star level player at this point as he stepped aside to let Bill Smith do the dirty work with Hunter, Santana, Mauer and Morneau. He is squemish and has shown absolutely no reason to believe he has the mental makeup to deal with uncomfortable contracts.

I want him nowhere near the table if Buxton, Sano, Meyer or any other young talent becomes an elite talent and requires a mega-contract. Thus, get rid of him now.

cmathewson
08-26-2013, 09:04 PM
He is definitely risk adverse, I don't think that has changed. I'm pretty confident the payroll will be less next year than it was this year. And it will be the right decision.


You might be the only person in Twins Territory who holds those two propositions together. Most of us want to see Mauer get a ring in a Twins uniform. We don't want four or five consecutive 90-loss seasons with the vain hope of future glory.

drjim
08-26-2013, 09:38 PM
I seriously doubt many if any GM's would have balked at extending their 25-year-old, left-handed, Cy Young Award winner a six year extension, especially the small market clubs. You don't think the Rays would have only been offering four years do you?

David Price?

Oxtung
08-26-2013, 09:45 PM
He is definitely risk adverse, I don't think that has changed. I'm pretty confident the payroll will be less next year than it was this year. And it will be the right decision.

I just don't think the comparison of your industry and his will ever perfectly work for a variety of reasons. For a quick example, would you spend money this year that locked you into future obligations for a diminishing (or non-productive) asset in future years? That would be a disaster, especially if you had expectations of future growth in 2-3 years that may require additional investment. I imagine you would spend unused budget on one off expenses that would result in growth, that would be a wise investment. Ryan tried to do that with Saunders but it didn't work.

Of course the reality is that obligation could become a cornerstone upon which the future could be built. That is something that you continually ignore.


The little evidence I can gather in support of my position is that 1) He has spent more on free agents the past two years than he did all his other years combined (by a significant margin) and 2) He has locked up any player even remotely worthwhile (ie Perkins, Burton, Doumit).

I thought signing free agents and re-signing your own players were entirely separate things. At least that is what you always try to convince me of.

drjim
08-26-2013, 09:51 PM
You might be the only person in Twins Territory who holds those two propositions together. Most of us want to see Mauer get a ring in a Twins uniform. We don't want four or five consecutive 90-loss seasons with the vain hope of future glory.

I should clarify this point. I expect Ryan to sign two starters and a cornee bat, but the outlay for next year will be less than the total coming off the books, which is why payroll will still go down.

There obviously is space to sign someone like Guerrero, but if the Dodgers come in and make an absurd offer it will be a little difficult to be too upset if the Twins don't beat it.

drjim
08-26-2013, 09:53 PM
I thought signing free agents and re-signing your own players were entirely separate things. At least that is what you always try to convince me of.

They are different. That's why I separated them into two distinct points.

drjim
08-26-2013, 09:55 PM
Of course the reality is that obligation could become a cornerstone upon which the future could be built. That is something that you continually ignore.

I don't ignore it as much as accept the reality that the options last year available to the Twins didn't fit this description.

old nurse
08-26-2013, 10:14 PM
Unfortunately, if the Twins don't make any signings it's backdoors like this that allow people to continue to assert that we "don't know" what Ryan would do or that the situation wsan't right, or whatever. There is a never ending supply of weak supports people can concoct.

The problem is that the much stronger evidence contradicts them, unfortunately they continue to put the burden of proving the future on other people and asserting that their guess is just as good as anyone else. When, in fact, it isn't - even if it comes true in the future.

I guess the point you missed is that these players would be in their prime throughout the contract. Ryan is adverse to paying declining players a lot of money for multiple years. These FA are not in that situation. This is a situation that Ryan has not been in before so you do not know what he will do.

USAFChief
08-26-2013, 10:22 PM
I should clarify this point. I expect Ryan to sign two starters and a cornee bat, but the outlay for next year will be less than the total coming off the books, which is why payroll will still go down.

There obviously is space to sign someone like Guerrero, but if the Dodgers come in and make an absurd offer it will be a little difficult to be too upset if the Twins don't beat it.
I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.

And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.

TheLeviathan
08-26-2013, 10:29 PM
I guess the point you missed is that these players would be in their prime throughout the contract. Ryan is adverse to paying declining players a lot of money for multiple years. These FA are not in that situation. This is a situation that Ryan has not been in before so you do not know what he will do.

And if he doesn't sign them....then all backdoors are closed? It will be fully on him for not doing it?

I guess I'm not so optimistic that the excuses will end simply because of a couple of mid-20s IFAs.

Oxtung
08-26-2013, 11:18 PM
They are different. That's why I separated them into two distinct points.

drjim, you wrote that Ryan's resigning of Doumit, Burton and Perkins were a beacon pointing to Ryan's impending haul in FA. You might have listed 2 points but they were both justifying Ryan's potential future FA signings.

Just to be clear here is your post:

I don't think I claimed equal grounds of evidence. I am pretty sure I stated clearly that there really is no evidence to support my claim [that Ryan will sign a big ticket FA at some point], but there is also no true evidence against my position because we have never seen Terry Ryan operate with a good team under the new financial reality.

The little evidence I can gather in support of my position is that 1) He has spent more on free agents the past two years than he did all his other years combined (by a significant margin) and 2) He has locked up any player even remotely worthwhile (ie Perkins, Burton, Doumit).


Moving on

I don't ignore it as much as accept the reality that the options last year available to the Twins didn't fit this description.
So you've ruled out the possibility that Greinke or Sanchez could be good pitchers and a cornerstone of their rotations for the next several years after 1 very good season for both of them (so far at least)?

howieramone
08-26-2013, 11:33 PM
And if he doesn't sign them....then all backdoors are closed? It will be fully on him for not doing it?

I guess I'm not so optimistic that the excuses will end simply because of a couple of mid-20s IFAs.

I'm not sure of what excuses you are talking about, but these 3 players merely represent 3 opportunities the Twins currently have. I certainly hope they find one they want and put together a successful bid. If they are unsuccessful they will have many more opportunities in the not too distant future. None of the 3 would be in our top 2 prospects and it's not even certain Tanaka would be in our top 2 pitching prospects.

PseudoSABR
08-26-2013, 11:45 PM
I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.For my part, at least, there's a lot of sense to optimizing your risk in free agency by building around your core's prime. It makes far more sense, at least to me, to invest in a top of the rotation free agent when Sano and Buxton are already in the everyday lineup. Pitchers scare me. Older pitchers scare me more. If a free agent pitcher is more likely to fail in the last half of their contract, it makes sense to hedge against that by timing such signings to align with our "supposed" core.
And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.This is a really good point. That at some point the rubber must meet the road; that the Twins need to decide precisely when that core will emerge--kicking the ball down the road is less and less of a viable, baseball option.

Frankly, I will be disappointed if the Twins don't spend to supplement their emerging core--because the team could be really, really special. On the other hand, I won't be surprised if the Twins hover under a 100 million payroll for the next couple years, only surpassing the figure when they lock up that young core.

Oxtung
08-27-2013, 12:24 AM
I'm not sure of what excuses you are talking about, but these 3 players merely represent 3 opportunities the Twins currently have. I certainly hope they find one they want and put together a successful bid. If they are unsuccessful they will have many more opportunities in the not too distant future. None of the 3 would be in our top 2 prospects and it's not even certain Tanaka would be in our top 2 pitching prospects.

The problem is bigger than just these 3 though. They are just the latest. If you look at all the pitchers he has watched go by that could have upgraded this rotation... well trends start to appear. Strong trends. How many times can one say, "not the right time" or "too much money" or "not the right player" before these just become excuses for doing nothing? 5? 10? 20? 50 players? How many years? At what point do you stop and say, alright, he clearly isn't going to make a move to help this team right now?

Oxtung
08-27-2013, 12:36 AM
For my part, at least, there's a lot of sense to optimizing your risk in free agency by building around your core's prime. It makes far more sense, at least to me, to invest in a top of the rotation free agent when Sano and Buxton are already in the everyday lineup. Pitchers scare me. Older pitchers scare me more. If a free agent pitcher is more likely to fail in the last half of their contract, it makes sense to hedge against that by timing such signings to align with our "supposed" core. This is a really good point. That at some point the rubber must meet the road; that the Twins need to decide precisely when that core will emerge--kicking the ball down the road is less and less of a viable, baseball option.

Frankly, I will be disappointed if the Twins don't spend to supplement their emerging core--because the team could be really, really special. On the other hand, I won't be surprised if the Twins hover under a 100 million payroll for the next couple years, only surpassing the figure when they lock up that young core.

Those seem to be two big assumptions to me. There is a very real risk the Twins will not have the money to sign a top tier free agent when the prospects are ready. Look at the Royals. They have an $80 million payroll and are spending $10 million on arbitration players this year. Next season they'll be at ~$90 million and still have to replace Bruce Chen (80IP) and Ervin Santana (170IP). In 3 years, when their core will be "in their prime" they could be spending $70 million on arbitration players alone. It is not at all clear that if the Twins choose to wait until their players are "in their prime" that the money will be there for a significant FA. There is also the very real risk that said FA won't exist at that specific point in time.

If you have it I would love to see any data on what point of their contracts FA pitchers lose value.

howieramone
08-27-2013, 12:44 AM
The problem is bigger than just these 3 though. They are just the latest. If you look at all the pitchers he has watched go by that could have upgraded this rotation... well trends start to appear. Strong trends. How many times can one say, "not the right time" or "too much money" or "not the right player" before these just become excuses for doing nothing? 5? 10? 20? 50? At what point do you stop and say, alright, he clearly isn't going to make a move to help this team right now?

I don't disagree with you. Ryan has been back 21 months and I feel he will make some kind of move to improve our dismal starting staff this winter. That said, I believe we can finish close to .500 next season with a below average rotation. I'm guessing he adds one, and possibly even 2 free agents if the September auditions fail. I'm hoping we can position ourselves, so when the parade starts in 2015, our starting rotation is very close to the major league average.

kab21
08-27-2013, 01:35 AM
I guess I don't know anything really about Tanaka. I've looked at his stats and he's not a strikeout pitcher so what's the point. They need guys like Detroits guys. Starters that are capable of getting 10 K's every night.

Would you really complain if the Twins signed a likely #3 starter that was 25 yrs old? I absolutely wouldn't.

cmathewson
08-27-2013, 06:00 AM
I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.

And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.

This. TR was a good GM for the Dome. With TF (and other new) revenues, he needs to change his mindset on free agents if he wants to win before he retires. If he doesn't do it this offseason, and we suffer another 90-loss season as a result, I hope they show him the door.

On the whole point about long-term commitments, we do make very long-term commitments where I work (M&As). We know there will be a certain amount of waste involved. We know some of these M&As will not work out. But if we don't take the risks, we will fail. It's similar to venture capitalists: They plan on one out of five failures. That still gives them four good investments to more than make up for the one failed investment.

The MLB has become a much more difficult game than it was when Risk-Averse Ryan could succeed against the big boys. You can't just rely on the farm system anymore. You have to use all the resources available to you. That includes bargain basement FAs (Burton), international signings (Sano), and the draft (Buxton), and high-end FAs (no one).

drjim
08-27-2013, 07:23 AM
drjim, you wrote that Ryan's resigning of Doumit, Burton and Perkins were a beacon pointing to Ryan's impending haul in FA. You might have listed 2 points but they were both justifying Ryan's potential future FA signings.

Just to be clear here is your post:



Moving on

So you've ruled out the possibility that Greinke or Sanchez could be good pitchers and a cornerstone of their rotations for the next several years after 1 very good season for both of them (so far at least)?

The post you are quoting is a continuation of a previous point where I had said that now Ryan has more money he is likely to spend more money on FAs and lock up their own guys. That is why I used the two separate points.

On your second point, sure Greinke could be a cornerstone. But no chance he was coming here - but that is my opinion and it has been debated to death and resurrected many times. I really don't want to go there.

drjim
08-27-2013, 07:35 AM
I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.

And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.

Two points on this. I expect the Twins to commit about $20 mil in salaries next year to free agents (and more total). So I expect some significant outlays, it just so happens more is coming off the books in underperforming assets.

Overall I expect the Twins to operate like similar revenue teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Mariners. They will sign good free agents but won't be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox for the top shelf free agents.

The real advantage of Target Field is they will be able to lock up their homegrown core and supplement with free agents. That is how the mid-tier matkets are successful in baseball.

I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.

ThePuck
08-27-2013, 07:44 AM
This may be true but on the other hand Ryan has committed almost $50 million to free agents in two seasons.

I know we endlessly debate this on the board but a very good argument can be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap the past two seasons.

The ultimate point is that posts like these are nothing more than guesses. Ryan's actions in his previous tenure show nothing about how he will act this time. We really don't know what Ryan will do with money when he has a good team.

FWIW, my guess is he will be more aggressive locking up his own players, he will be more willing to trade B level prospects, and he will make some free agent signings above and beyond what we have seen before. I don't expect Greinke like signings mostly because teams with similar revenue structures don't make them. I do grant these are guesses on my part as well and there is no actual evidence to back it up (though I would say the opportunity has yet to present itself one way or the other quite yet).

Well, in terms of FA, 'almost 50M' over two years isn't a lot and it's even less impressive when looking at who we lost in FA and how many players that almost 50M was divided into. In other words, if you look at the whole picture.

And yes, a very good argument could be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap over the last two years...but only if 'responsible' involves significantly cutting payroll and not getting anyone to truly improve the major league team as we endured a second and third carpy season.. Other than that...

ThePuck
08-27-2013, 07:46 AM
Two points on this. I expect the Twins to commit about $20 mil in salaries next year to free agents (and more total). So I expect some significant outlays, it just so happens more is coming off the books in underperforming assets.

Overall I expect the Twins to operate like similar revenue teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Mariners. They will sign good free agents but won't be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox for the top shelf free agents.

The real advantage of Target Field is they will be able to lock up their homegrown core and supplement with free agents. That is how the mid-tier matkets are successful in baseball.

I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.

You make that sound like a lot....it's not. Not at all. Especially considering what's coming off the books and especially considering it'll probably be divided by 3 or 4 players. We need quality, not a bunch of bargain basement blue-light special players.

as far as free agent expectations...SOME people expect the Twins to improve the product on the field by all means available instead of decreasing payroll two years in a row (and likely continuing the next two years)while we continue to stink. You take it to extreme to make your point when no one is arguing the extreme. No one that I've seen in here expect us to have payroll in the mid 100s.

drjim
08-27-2013, 07:59 AM
You make that sound like a lot....it's not. Not at all. Especially considering what's coming off the books and especially considering it'll probably be divided by 3 or 4 players. We need quality, not a bunch of bargain basement blue-light special players.

Alas, quality as you seem to define it probably doesn't exist in this free agent class.

John Bonnes
08-27-2013, 08:00 AM
And yes, a very good argument could be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap over the last two years...but only if 'responsible' involves significantly cutting payroll and not getting anyone to truly improve the major league team as we endure a third carpy season in a row. Other than that...

Yeah, to that argument, I guess I'd say - "resposible for who?"

The answer, obviously is "the Pohlads," but:
a) I'm not a Pohlad, so why do I care about that exactly? I'm a fan, and I don't see anything responsible about (somewhat) willfully neglecting an enormous resource that could have made the year (or in the case of international free agents, the future) a better one. Also

b) If I was a Pohlad, I might wonder why a manager a few levels down from me (Ryan reports to Dave St. Peter, who reports to the Pohlads) is solely making a decision like that which affects so many other aspects of the organization. It certainly makes things like "selling season tickets" tougher, which is not under his control but is under the control of the guy he reports to.

Granted, if I'm Pohlad, I have $20 million extra dollars to soothe my concerns. I can pocket it or give it to St. Peter to use on some other endeavors. But the point is that if that's the way we, as an organization wanted to play this, we would have given him a budget with $20 million less than we did.

No, I don't think there was anything "responsible" about how the free agent market was handled this offseason.

ThePuck
08-27-2013, 08:02 AM
I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.

People expect the Twins to improve the product on the field by all means available instead of decreasing payroll two years in a row (and likely continuing the next two years)while we continue to stink. You take it to extreme to make your point when no one is arguing the extreme. No one that I've seen in here expect us to have payroll in the mid 100s.

USAFChief
08-27-2013, 08:06 AM
Two points on this. I expect the Twins to commit about $20 mil in salaries next year to free agents (and more total). So I expect some significant outlays, it just so happens more is coming off the books in underperforming assets.

Overall I expect the Twins to operate like similar revenue teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Mariners. They will sign good free agents but won't be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox for the top shelf free agents.

The real advantage of Target Field is they will be able to lock up their homegrown core and supplement with free agents. That is how the mid-tier matkets are successful in baseball.

I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.
Have the Braves, Cards or Mariners responded to new stadium revenues by cutting payroll 30% (with further cuts likely on the way), to the point where they are within a stone's throw of 2007 levels? All while losing 90+ games 3 yrs in a row?

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:22 AM
Andy McPhail operated under the same constraints as Ryan, and still managed to hand out some of the largest contracts in MLB at the time.....Ryan quit instead of handling the mess he created with Hunter, Santana, and having to sign Mauer.

He somehow made a historically bad SP staff worse this year.

$20MM? They are losing more than that in payroll, and getting $25MM more in new revenue. Yay, they are spending less than 40% of what they could, and still make the same profit as this year!

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:22 AM
Yeah, to that argument, I guess I'd say - "resposible for who?"

The answer, obviously is "the Pohlads," but:
a) I'm not a Pohlad, so why do I care about that exactly? I'm a fan, and I don't see anything responsible about (somewhat) willfully neglecting an enormous resource that could have made the year (or in the case of international free agents, the future) a better one. Also

b) If I was a Pohlad, I might wonder why a manager a few levels down from me (Ryan reports to Dave St. Peter, who reports to the Pohlads) is solely making a decision like that which affects so many other aspects of the organization. It certainly makes things like "selling season tickets" tougher, which is not under his control but is under the control of the guy he reports to.

Granted, if I'm Pohlad, I have $20 million extra dollars to soothe my concerns. I can pocket it
or give it to St. Peter to use on some other endeavors. But the point is that if that's the way we, as an organization wanted to play this, we would have given him a budget with $20 million less than we did.

No, I don't think there was anything "responsible" about how the free agent market was handled this offseason.

"Responsible" in regards to 2015 and beyond.

I'm quite confident Pohlad knows exactly why Ryan is doing what he is doing and has confidence in him going forward. I'm sure Pohlad doesn't mind the extra cash but he surely realizes the impact losing will have on his bottom line.

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:23 AM
Have the Braves, Cards or Mariners responded to new stadium revenues by cutting payroll 30% (with further cuts likely on the way), to the point where they are within a stone's throw of 2007 levels? All while losing 90+ games 3 yrs in a row?

Mariners have. The other two haven't seen a similar rebuild as the Twins are facing.

EDIT:I Actually Seattle is a great cautionary tale of trying to kickstart a rebuild through spending or trading prospects and remaining mired in mediocrity.

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:26 AM
Mariners have. The other two haven't seen a similar rebuild as the Twins are facing.

Because, even though they've consistently drafted late, they've managed to draft and develop pitchers. Oh, and they sometimes sign legit FAs also.....they are better at what they do than the Twins are.

jay
08-27-2013, 08:29 AM
$20MM? They are losing more than that in payroll, and getting $25MM more in new revenue. Yay, they are spending less than 40% of what they could, and still make the same profit as this year!

mike, I keep seeing that $25MM brought up. Given that every team gets it, the effect on the talent you can get is 0%. Maybe it means the gross expenditures for every team in MLB should go higher, but it doesn't mean each team will be able to go sign a Greinke... there aren't 30 of them out there.

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:31 AM
Andy McPhail operated under the same constraints as Ryan, and still managed to hand out some of the largest contracts in MLB at the time.....Ryan quit instead of handling the mess he created with Hunter, Santana, and having to sign Mauer.

He somehow made a historically bad SP staff worse this year.

$20MM? They are losing more than that in payroll, and getting $25MM more in new revenue. Yay, they are spending less than 40% of what they could, and still make the same profit as this year!

Actually the Twins had the highest attendance in mlb history in 1992. The constraints were different and the financial model has changed significantly in 25 years. I would think this obvious.

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:32 AM
Because, even though they've consistently drafted late, they've managed to draft and develop pitchers. Oh, and they sometimes sign legit FAs also.....they are better at what they do than the Twins are.

Actually they aren't better. Mediocre again and the GM is about to get canned.

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:33 AM
mike, I keep seeing that $25MM brought up. Given that every team gets it, the effect on the talent you can get is 0%. Maybe it means the gross expenditures for every team in MLB should go higher, but it doesn't mean each team will be able to go sign a Greinke... there aren't 30 of them out there.

Agreed, every contract will be more expensive, so spending $20MM won't get what it would have gotten this last year, that's actually my point.

jay
08-27-2013, 08:34 AM
As for this Guerrero guy, I can't see him as an MLB SS. As someone else noted, very stiff in the torso and hips while fielding. The range doesn't look impressive and you just don't see those rigid motions out of an MLB SS. The swing looks okay, but hard to judge off a youtube BP clip. For the money, I'd much rather see Abreu or Tanaka.

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:34 AM
Actually they aren't better. Mediocre again and the GM is about to get canned.

The Cards and Braves aren't good? Sorry, I thought it was obvious I was talking about the two good teams you mentioned, not the Mariners. My bad, should have been more clear.

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:35 AM
Actually the Twins had the highest attendance in mlb history in 1992. The constraints were different and the financial model has changed significantly in 25 years. I would think this obvious.


I thought it was obvious I was comparing McPhail in dome constraints to Ryan in dome constraints, I really need to be more explicit in my posts......of course constraints have changed, not that you could tell from the last two years, as payroll has plummeted.

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:39 AM
People expect the Twins to improve the product on the field by all means available instead of decreasing payroll two years in a row (and likely continuing the next two years)while we continue to stink. You take it to extreme to make your point when no one is arguing the extreme. No one that I've seen in here expect us to have payroll in the mid 100s.

I think this type of thinking fails to take into account the lack of free agent options and the reality of a rebuild.

We all want the Twins to be better but these two realities provide limits to what could actually be done in an offseason.

I'm amazed at how much confidence people put in free agents. The Twins are getting out of this mess through internal improvement supplemented by free agents. Free agents themselves are not going to move the needle.

ThePuck
08-27-2013, 08:39 AM
Have the Braves, Cards or Mariners responded to new stadium revenues by cutting payroll 30% (with further cuts likely on the way), to the point where they are within a stone's throw of 2007 levels? All while losing 90+ games 3 yrs in a row?

If we take normal national inflation into account, we are below 2007 payroll. Without knowing for sure, I believe players' salaries have increased more than the national inflation rate.

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:40 AM
I think this type of thinking fails to take into account the lack of free agent options and the reality of a rebuild.

We all want the Twins to be better but these two realities provide limits to what could actually be done in an offseason.

I'm amazed at how much confidence people put in free agents. The Twins are getting out of this mess through internal improvement supplemented by free agents. Free agents themselves are not going to move the needle.

Name one person here arguing FA is the only answer. Not one person has said that. No one here would.

ThePuck
08-27-2013, 08:41 AM
I think this type of thinking fails to take into account the lack of free agent options and the reality of a rebuild.

We all want the Twins to be better but these two realities provide limits to what could actually be done in an offseason.

I'm amazed at how much confidence people put in free agents. The Twins are getting out of this mess through internal improvement supplemented by free agents. Free agents themselves are not going to move the needle.

Do you mean the lack of free agents within some preconceived price range we set for ourselves?

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:42 AM
I thought it was obvious I was comparing McPhail in dome constraints to Ryan in dome constraints, I really need to be more explicit in my posts......of course constraints have changed, not that you could tell from the last two years, as payroll has plummeted.

Fine. The financial realities of 1991 were also significantly different than the 2000s. The model really shifted after 1994.

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:43 AM
Do you mean the lack of free agents within some preconceived price range we set for ourselves?

No. Lack of free agents in total.

drjim
08-27-2013, 08:45 AM
Name one person here arguing FA is the only answer. Not one person has said that. No one here would.

Everyone constantly complains about a lack of free agents signed. Why would you do that unless you thought it was the answer?

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:46 AM
Fine. The financial realities of 1991 were also significantly different than the 2000s. The model really shifted after 1994.

How many years of Ryan NOT signing FAs, or trading prospects for legit players, do you need before you will say it is part of how he acts? Not what he says, because talk is cheap, but how he acts?

mike wants wins
08-27-2013, 08:47 AM
Everyone constantly complains about a lack of free agents signed. Why would you do that unless you thought it was the answer?

PART of the answer, not the whole answer. Your post stated it was the only way we wanted talent added. What the negative nancies want is for Ryan to use all of the channels for adding talent, not just the ones that cut costs. We want a big time FA signed, or maybe two, when there are literally 10x of millions of dollars sitting around, gathering dust.

ThePuck
08-27-2013, 08:48 AM
No. Lack of free agents in total.

So the argument every year will be lack of free agents available...that's a convenient argument.