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cmb0252
07-26-2013, 12:34 PM
Just as the title says, today Jonathan Mayo released his updated prospect list. There are some odd choices on the list so give it a look. For those of you too lazy to skim it here are the Twins that made it:

1.Buxton
3.Sano
36.Meyer
51.Gibson
66. Stewart
68 Rosario
85. Berrios

Mayo also updated his top 20 list for each team and top 10 by position lists. Link:

2013 Prospect Watch | MLB.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/)

Smcginnity
07-26-2013, 12:48 PM
Hmmm. I don't disagree with his top 100 (with Twins players) but his top 20 on our team I don't agree with. Until Bard or Chargois play enough, they do not warrant that ranking. Also, I think Meijia should be on there along with Tyler Duffey, Baxendale, or Rogers. Is Felix Jorge considered to be better than Lewis Thorpe or Yorman Landa?

PseudoSABR
07-26-2013, 12:54 PM
The organizational rankings seem a little lazy, and it's hard to tell whether the scouting reports themselves have been updated much at all..

cmb0252
07-26-2013, 01:00 PM
The organizational rankings seem a little lazy, and it's hard to tell whether the scouting reports themselves have been updated much at all..

The scouting reports have not been updated which is annoying. Gibson's still says he should make the major league at some point this year.....which he obviously has.

On his top ten by position lists we did have the #1 OF, #1 3B, and the #2 2b which is never a bad thing. Also, while none of our pitchers made the top 10 pitcher list having 4 pitchers in the top 100 is definitely a good thing.

PseudoSABR
07-26-2013, 01:29 PM
having 4 pitchers in the top 100 is definitely a good thing.Has that EVER happened?

jokin
07-26-2013, 01:32 PM
The organizational rankings seem a little lazy, and it's hard to tell whether the scouting reports themselves have been updated much at all..

At least he wrote a fresh piece on Kohl Stewart!

USMCTwin
07-26-2013, 01:37 PM
Also interesting that he has Sano ETA at 2015 along with Buxton and Rosario.

howieramone
07-26-2013, 01:47 PM
Has that EVER happened?

I think back when they were called the Senators.:)

cmb0252
07-26-2013, 02:14 PM
Also interesting that he has Sano ETA at 2015 along with Buxton and Rosario.

That has to be an error. If Sano keeps warming up and Rosario stays hot they might both be September call ups.

Steve Penz
07-26-2013, 02:40 PM
It makes me laugh how so many of these sites still list Sano at 6'3" and 195. Wasn't that about 45 pounds ago?

jay
07-26-2013, 03:58 PM
Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20.

I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.

Siehbiscuit
07-26-2013, 04:17 PM
It makes me laugh how so many of these sites still list Sano at 6'3" and 195. Wasn't that about 45 pounds ago?

YES! Sano is definitely on the plus side of at least 220!

AROG
07-26-2013, 06:31 PM
Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20.

I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.

When you really look at it, the guys they have listed there almost all have a "potential" to be better then your list. I could see Meija, Walker, and Baxendale having a case to break the list but at the expense of maybe Goodrum, Melotakis and Harrison. And to me I am not sure I think the Meija has better upside then Goodrum, or Walker over Harrison, or Baxendale over Melotakis. The prospect list is all about potential upside to be a star.

Erock
07-27-2013, 03:25 AM
Here is my go at it

1. Byron Buxton
2. Miguel Sano
3. Alex Meyer
4. Kohl Stewart
5. Eddie Rosario
6. Max Kepler
7. Trevor May
8. Travis Harrison
9. Jorge Polanco
10. J.O. Berrios
11. Josmil Pinto
12. Adam Brett Walker
13. Michael Tonkin
14. Aderlin Mejia
15. Kennys Vargas
16. Niko Goodrum
17. Ryan Eades
18. Amaurys Minier
19. DJ Baxendale
20. Zack Jones
21. Angel Morales
22. Mason Melotakis
23. Dalton Hicks
24. James Beresford
25. Stephen Gonsalves

Next: Stuart Turner, D.J. Williams, Nate Roberts, Logan Darnell, Luke Bard, Alex Wimmers, Tyler Duffey

071063
07-27-2013, 07:59 AM
Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

TheLeviathan
07-27-2013, 09:00 AM
That has to be an error. If Sano keeps warming up and Rosario stays hot they might both be September call ups.

I think September next year is a good bet. I think we see one of the two of them as early as June.

Joe A. Preusser
07-27-2013, 09:00 AM
Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

I have to agree on this one. They will finish the season at AA. However, it would not surprise me at all if they both made the team out of ST next year. The Twins have proven they are willing to go that route several times in the recent past.

Boone
07-27-2013, 09:00 AM
Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

After watching the likes of Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee, and Dozier all struggle mightily after getting little to no time in Rochester before becoming big league regulars, I really hope the Twins have learned that a few months in AAA is beneficial--and in some cases necessary-- for young players to have success in the majors.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-27-2013, 11:38 AM
After watching the likes of Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee, and Dozier all struggle mightily after getting little to no time in Rochester before becoming big league regulars, I really hope the Twins have learned that a few months in AAA is beneficial--and in some cases necessary-- for young players to have success in the majors.
Arcia struggled mightily? He was actually hitting very well before his late "slump".

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-27-2013, 11:39 AM
I think September next year is a good bet. I think we see one of the two of them as early as June.

I could see them giving them each a cup of coffee this sept, especially if more and more trades are made.

Neither one will be up full time until next June and that is a GOOD thing. I know people will prob be calling the Twins cheap etc, but with a guy like Sano you absolutely keep that extra year of team control at any cost, especially since the Twins "real" window probably starts in 2015, even though I think they can compete next year.

cmb0252
07-27-2013, 12:21 PM
Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

Maybe people keep saying that because the front office has mentioned it before. A Sept call up doesn't mean they have made the team next year. It is just away to see your prospects and reward them for having a good year.

diehardtwinsfan
07-27-2013, 02:35 PM
I could see them giving them each a cup of coffee this sept, especially if more and more trades are made.

Neither one will be up full time until next June and that is a GOOD thing. I know people will prob be calling the Twins cheap etc, but with a guy like Sano you absolutely keep that extra year of team control at any cost, especially since the Twins "real" window probably starts in 2015, even though I think they can compete next year.

Sano doesn't need to be added to the 40 man this offseason. He's not getting a cup of coffee in September. If they add him to the roster and send him back, they lose an option. He'll get called up in 2014 when the Twins brass decides that they are going to stick with him for the remainder of the season.

jay
07-29-2013, 09:35 AM
When you really look at it, the guys they have listed there almost all have a "potential" to be better then your list. I could see Meija, Walker, and Baxendale having a case to break the list but at the expense of maybe Goodrum, Melotakis and Harrison. And to me I am not sure I think the Meija has better upside then Goodrum, or Walker over Harrison, or Baxendale over Melotakis. The prospect list is all about potential upside to be a star.

I fully get that different lists have different objectives, but I'm not so sure Eades, Bard, Chargois, Gonsalves, nor Turner have done anything to show the upside of a star. Turner's bat profiles him as the next Drew Butera.

Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

Major Leauge Ready
07-29-2013, 09:46 AM
Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20.

I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.

I think Walker, Pinto and a few others are going to get noticed soon. Look at the bright side, there are serveral good prospects that did not make it in the top 20. That is some pretty darn good depth.

diehardtwinsfan
07-29-2013, 01:31 PM
Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

I think this is a flaw in prospecting in general. Lots of interest in the new girl simply because she's new. That's how guys like Arcia consistently get underrated despite the fact that they've put up results at every stop.

Seth Stohs
07-29-2013, 02:28 PM
I fully get that different lists have different objectives, but I'm not so sure Eades, Bard, Chargois, Gonsalves, nor Turner have done anything to show the upside of a star. Turner's bat profiles him as the next Drew Butera.

Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

Eades was a top-of-2nd-round pick out of a top college. He's been successful in college and touches 94. I personally have him in a (not-yet-existing, but still-in-my-mind) Top 10.

Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.

Oxtung
07-29-2013, 02:35 PM
Sano doesn't need to be added to the 40 man this offseason. He's not getting a cup of coffee in September. If they add him to the roster and send him back, they lose an option. He'll get called up in 2014 when the Twins brass decides that they are going to stick with him for the remainder of the season.

Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

Pirates Prospects Previewing the September Call-Ups (http://www.piratesprospects.com/2011/08/previewing-the-september-call-ups.html)

cmb0252
07-29-2013, 02:37 PM
I think this is a flaw in prospecting in general. Lots of interest in the new girl simply because she's new. That's how guys like Arcia consistently get underrated despite the fact that they've put up results at every stop.

People were saying this last year with Buxton when doing their own personal top Twins lists. Players taken in the top 5 picks have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs and a 34% chance to have an impact. While Stewart could be in the 12% that dont, odds are against it. You just don't find many guys with his tools.

Badsmerf
07-29-2013, 02:48 PM
Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

Pirates Prospects Previewing the September Call-Ups (http://www.piratesprospects.com/2011/08/previewing-the-september-call-ups.html)
I'm pretty sure he just has to be on the 40 man and it doesn't burn an option. That is why rosters expand and so many minor league guys get looks.

cmb0252
07-29-2013, 02:49 PM
Eades was a top-of-2nd-round pick out of a top college. He's been successful in college and touches 94. I personally have him in a (not-yet-existing, but still-in-my-mind) Top 10.

Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.

Picks 1-5 have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs for at least a cup of coffee. Rest of the first round is about a ~70% chance. Supplemental 1st rounders and second rounders have about a 50% chance to make it to the bigs. The farther you go down the draft the less likely you are to make the bigs and/or make an impact.

Eades is a damn good prospect and according to Christopher Crawford could be one of the first SPs to the bigs.

diehardtwinsfan
07-29-2013, 03:24 PM
Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

Pirates Prospects Previewing the September Call-Ups (http://www.piratesprospects.com/2011/08/previewing-the-september-call-ups.html)

Not for being called up in September. They lose an option if they put him on the 40 man this year and then send him to the minors next year. He doesn't need to go on the 40 man until after next season, so the only way he gets put on the 40 man prior to that is if the Twins have no intention of sending him back down at all during 2014 or what's left of that season.

diehardtwinsfan
07-29-2013, 03:27 PM
People were saying this last year with Buxton when doing their own personal top Twins lists. Players taken in the top 5 picks have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs and a 34% chance to have an impact. While Stewart could be in the 12% that dont, odds are against it. You just don't find many guys with his tools.

I wasn't talking about Stewart in particular. It was more Eades and Turner in relation to where Mayo ranked them. I tend to agree with the high ranking on Stewart and would have him in the top 5 somewhere (though I still place emphasis on actual results).

TRex
07-29-2013, 03:32 PM
Not for being called up in September. They lose an option if they put him on the 40 man this year and then send him to the minors next year. He doesn't need to go on the 40 man until after next season, so the only way he gets put on the 40 man prior to that is if the Twins have no intention of sending him back down at all during 2014 or what's left of that season.

I don't quite get the discussion of Sano and options... do we really think that we will be wringing our hands in April 2017 because Sano is out of options and he will have to make the team or be lost to waivers? That sounds very unlikely, but that is what it would take if his options were used in 2014, 2015 and 2016!

nicksaviking
07-29-2013, 03:32 PM
Eades is a damn good prospect and according to Christopher Crawford could be one of the first SPs to the bigs.

Maybe, but considering he was immediately placed in a short season league I'm doubtful. Only four other college age pitchers chosen in the first two rounds have taken the mound as a pro but are not currently in Low A or higher.

nicksaviking
07-29-2013, 03:52 PM
I don't quite get the discussion of Sano and options... do we really think that we will be wringing our hands in April 2017 because Sano is out of options and he will have to make the team or be lost to waivers? That sounds very unlikely, but that is what it would take if his options were used in 2014, 2015 and 2016!

Agree. If Sano's options become an issue, something went horribly wrong. Service time? Well sure, that's going to be a concern, but if he turns into the next Brandon Wood, the options will be the least of the problem.

jay
07-29-2013, 03:53 PM
Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.

This certainly holds true and I don't mind Stewart's placement or Buxton's last year for true, top-end picks. However, that doesn't jive with why a guy like AB Walker or even a few of the other guys knocking get less love than a 3rd round pick this year. Some of that "new girl" effect seems to hold true, at least in my eyes.

drjim
07-29-2013, 04:10 PM
Agree. If Sano's options become an issue, something went horribly wrong. Service time? Well sure, that's going to be a concern, but if he turns into the next Brandon Wood, the options will be the least of the problem.

The only concern is the 40 man roster crunch in the offseason as prospects/free agents are potentially added, but that is minor at best.

diehardtwinsfan
07-29-2013, 05:21 PM
I don't quite get the discussion of Sano and options... do we really think that we will be wringing our hands in April 2017 because Sano is out of options and he will have to make the team or be lost to waivers? That sounds very unlikely, but that is what it would take if his options were used in 2014, 2015 and 2016!

That doesn't excuse poor business decisions. He could have a season ending injury in AAA 2014 and spend 2015 rehabbing it and struggle in his first taste of the bigs in 2016 in the middle of a pennant race, kind of like some guy named Jason Kubel did. Things happen, and while the odds are low, that doesn't excuse poor management.

My point is that there is absolutely zero reason to put him on the 40 man this year. He isn't destroying AA and he's not likely going to open next season in MN. As such, he'll get added next year when there's a spot for him that will remain for the duration of the season, but not until then.

Oxtung
07-29-2013, 09:54 PM
That doesn't excuse poor business decisions. He could have a season ending injury in AAA 2014 and spend 2015 rehabbing it and struggle in his first taste of the bigs in 2016 in the middle of a pennant race, kind of like some guy named Jason Kubel did. Things happen, and while the odds are low, that doesn't excuse poor management.

My point is that there is absolutely zero reason to put him on the 40 man this year. He isn't destroying AA and he's not likely going to open next season in MN. As such, he'll get added next year when there's a spot for him that will remain for the duration of the season, but not until then.

2014 would still be an option year either way. The only way it matters is if, as you mention, he gets hurt and misses significant time or if the Twins don't plan on him making the majors until September 2014. IMO both are unlikely and a September call up this year, assuming he picks up the pace at AA, is within the realm of possibility and certainly wouldn't be irresponsible.

diehardtwinsfan
07-30-2013, 05:45 AM
2014 would still be an option year either way. The only way it matters is if, as you mention, he gets hurt and misses significant time or if the Twins don't plan on him making the majors until September 2014. IMO both are unlikely and a September call up this year, assuming he picks up the pace at AA, is within the realm of possibility and certainly wouldn't be irresponsible.

2014 is only an option year if he gets put on the 40 man this year, and he returns to the minors next year. An option is not burned if he's put on it next year and never goes back to the minors.

But that said, he doesn't need to go on the 40 man this year, and he's only in AA. He will get put on the 40 man next year sometime, whether that be in September (for Sept call ups) or June because he forced the issue with his play in Rochester. That said, when he's added, he will stay with the club for the remainder of the season or they risk losing an option. Players only get 3 options, wasting one when you don't need to simply to give a guy a look isn't a smart business move.

TRex
07-30-2013, 08:01 AM
Seriously, you are really that worried about Sano using up all of his options? I realize you can find scenarios where using an option in 2014 would be deleterious, but Sano could also get glaucoma tomorrow and go blind... or be hit by a bus (or a pitch in the head)!

diehardtwinsfan
07-30-2013, 11:26 AM
Seriously, you are really that worried about Sano using up all of his options? I realize you can find scenarios where using an option in 2014 would be deleterious, but Sano could also get glaucoma tomorrow and go blind... or be hit by a bus (or a pitch in the head)!

Worried? No, but he's not ready now. So need to burn one unnecessarily.

Oxtung
07-30-2013, 12:16 PM
2014 is only an option year if he gets put on the 40 man this year, and he returns to the minors next year. An option is not burned if he's put on it next year and never goes back to the minors.

But that said, he doesn't need to go on the 40 man this year, and he's only in AA. He will get put on the 40 man next year sometime, whether that be in September (for Sept call ups) or June because he forced the issue with his play in Rochester. That said, when he's added, he will stay with the club for the remainder of the season or they risk losing an option. Players only get 3 options, wasting one when you don't need to simply to give a guy a look isn't a smart business move.

If he isn't going back down once he comes up then what does it matter if he burns an option year in 2014? There are no bonus points for players with options left at the end of their career. I think it is more likely that Sano gets called up at some point in 2014, plays poorly and is sent back to AAA for a time burning an option year anyway. The jump from AAA to the majors is a large one for both elite and not elite prospects. Arcia has been sent down, Hicks should have been sent down if there was anyone to man CF and Gibson looks like he will need to be depending on how his innings limit turns out.

Mr. Brooks
07-31-2013, 04:06 PM
I agree with diehard, as much as I would love to get a look at Sano in Sept., that is just my own selfishness for wanting a reason to turn the Twins games on these days.
Sept. callups are usually reserved for guys ALREADY on the 40 man. It's pretty rare to see a team add a prospect to the 40 man roster, for the SOLE purpose of giving him a Sept. call up, in fact I'm not sure I can recall the Twins ever doing so.
Really, there is no logical reason to bring him up in September.
Any "look" you get at him is not going to give you any kind of accurate depiction of his future. (See Parmelee, Chris) Playing in Sept. on an awful team is a bit like spring training. It doesn't tell you a whole lot. You are playing a bunch of meaningless games, against many other Sept. call ups, and rookies (some prospects, some AAAA scrubs) who are filling in for vets who've been traded.