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mnfanforlife
07-25-2013, 08:26 AM
AVG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
OBP
SLG
OPS




.404
47
12
19
4
0
7
16
0
11
0
0
.396
.936
1.332



This is Adam Walker's last 10 games. Crazy impressive.

2wins87
07-25-2013, 09:18 AM
Seems to be a bit of a streaky player. Crazy good when he's on though.

Monkeypaws
07-25-2013, 10:38 AM
One of those prospects that really rounds out the system. Elite tools are worth drafting with the hope the rest of their game can follow suit.

Major Leauge Ready
07-25-2013, 10:48 AM
Seems to be a bit of a streaky player. Crazy good when he's on though.

Just a guess because I have never seen him play but you have to suspect the inconsistency is a product of poor plate discipline. He has a very low walk rate and a guy with that kind of power is going to be pitched carefully. How good might he be with an improved approach. (see Carlos Gomez)

tcarlic
07-25-2013, 11:06 AM
There seems to be a good amount of potential 25+ MLB HR threats in the organization. Sano, Arcia, Walker, Harrison, and Pinto. Hopefully at least two or three of them make it.

diehardtwinsfan
07-25-2013, 11:07 AM
most hitters can put up gaudy numbers in a small sample. Walker has been pretty decent this year as it is, and based on the numbers, I'd say he's learned about all he can. Probably ready to get promoted.

Willihammer
07-25-2013, 11:15 AM
The only thing Walker didn't do is draw a walk.

Smcginnity
07-25-2013, 11:15 AM
There seems to be a good amount of potential 25+ MLB HR threats in the organization. Sano, Arcia, Walker, Harrison, and Pinto. Hopefully at least two or three of them make it.

There are others I would put into this power category too. Such as Buxton and Kepler.

tcarlic
07-25-2013, 12:17 PM
There are others I would put into this power category too. Such as Buxton and Kepler.


The more the merrier right?

Monkeypaws
07-25-2013, 03:55 PM
It beats putting all your hopes on Bob Gorinski.

Steve Lein
07-25-2013, 04:53 PM
From chat with Keith Law today:

Jesse (Minny)

Any opions on Adam Bret Walker in Cedar Rapids? He's over 20 HRs with a good AVG. Solid regular 1st baseman?
Klaw (1:59 PM)


He's also 21 and a college product in low-A, with a poor walk rate and a K rate too high for a player of his age/experience. He's not a zero, but again, the stat line here is pretty misleading - and he should be in high-A.


Klaw (1:59 PM)


Seriously, don't draft a good college player in the first few rounds and send him to low-A in his first full year. You're wasting everyone's time.



So, there's that... I tend to agree that the Twins waste time with a lot of the college position player's they draft. Nate Roberts is another one, though his inability to stay healthy hasn't helped him either.

Willihammer
07-25-2013, 05:35 PM
He's not a zero? Geez, easy on the superlatives, KLaw.

Badsmerf
07-25-2013, 05:43 PM
I feel the same way as KLaw. He needs to be challenged and right now he is feasting. Let him see some real pitchers.

lightfoot789
07-25-2013, 06:26 PM
Although I believe that there are times, players should be moved quickly as college draftees - Walker was one of the youngest college players in last years draft. If you are at age average for a league - there is no way you can be too old or experienced for that league (by definition of "average"). He will make it to the MLB at 24 if he progresses as is (A / A+ / AA / MLB): Does KLaw consider that damaged goods or too old to make your debut. KLaw is stuck in his categorical mind set of judging generalities. "This is how things should be done". GM's judge based on what they see from each player and how that particular player fits into thier long term goals. Although I want Walker to move up as well - I respect their plan. He's dominating and obviously learning at a productive pace. His K Rate is 22%. How is that too high at any level for a HR hitter?

Monkeypaws
07-25-2013, 06:39 PM
I think the Twins brass put him there for a reason - the old chestnut of Twins moving players too slowly has been burst by our top guys moving up regularly.

diehardtwinsfan
07-25-2013, 07:12 PM
He's not a zero? Geez, easy on the superlatives, KLaw.

I don't think that Law meant that the kid is a zero as much as he meant that his season really is not telling us anything.

drjim
07-25-2013, 07:27 PM
He's not a zero? Geez, easy on the superlatives, KLaw.

Probably good to temper the enthusiasm a little. He is a C+ guy and I want him to do something in AA before I get excited. His bb and k rates are not especially inspiring.

lightfoot789
07-25-2013, 09:50 PM
Probably good to temper the enthusiasm a little. He is a C+ guy and I want him to do something in AA before I get excited. His bb and k rates are not especially inspiring.

He definitely has things to work on. I am, however, impressed by his improved K rate (30% to 22%). That's what the minors is all about. Improving at each level and making adjustments. He has shown that he can make some adjustments and only needs to continue improving as he moves up the system. If he can lead the league in HRs at each level like he's shown and improve his K rate along the way like he's shown - Why not get Enthusiastic?

lightfoot789
07-25-2013, 09:55 PM
If we have to wait until the MLB team gets on the winning track, to be enthusiastic - It might be 2015? I'd rather get excited about the up and coming. Not like I can't handle disappointment if the prospects don't meet expectations. Been there Done that :D

Willihammer
07-25-2013, 11:39 PM
Probably good to temper the enthusiasm a little. He is a C+ guy and I want him to do something in AA before I get excited. His bb and k rates are not especially inspiring.
I agree. They're also about identical to Sano's but that didn't stop him getting promoted.

He's done more than enough to warrant a promotion I think. Let's get going here, he's 21 already.

TRex
07-26-2013, 07:55 AM
I agree. They're also about identical to Sano's but that didn't stop him getting promoted.

He's done more than enough to warrant a promotion I think. Let's get going here, he's 21 already.

Sano's BB and SO rates were 15% and 27%, respectively. How is that 'about identical' to Walker's rates of 6% and 23%? Plate discipline is the only thing lacking on Walker's resume, and Sano literally walked 2.5 times as often and still spent the whole year in low-A.

I also think KLaw's comment about Walker 'not being a zero' comes through the prism of an overall top-100 list. I am sure that he would (will) put Walker in the Twins top-15.

Willihammer
07-26-2013, 08:29 AM
Sano's BB and SO rates were 15% and 27%, respectively. How is that 'about identical' to Walker's rates of 6% and 23%? Plate discipline is the only thing lacking on Walker's resume, and Sano literally walked 2.5 times as often and still spent the whole year in low-A.


In A ball? Sano's rates were 14.5 and 26.0

edit: nevermind we must be looking at the same thing. I guess I wouldn't be as hung up about the lack of walks given the production with the bat.

SD Buhr
07-26-2013, 08:57 AM
I like Walker a lot and I think he has a chance to be a very good Major League ballplayer, but I am not ready to put him in the elite prospect category yet, either. I think he has a very high ceiling, but it may be harder and take longer to reach that ceiling than a lot of people seem to think it will.

At this point in his career (note the emphasis), he's mostly a very good "mistake hitter." He will absolutely punish anything you foolishly throw on the inside part of the plate. That's not a career-killer. A lot of MLB players have made very good livings as "mistake hitters." (Michael Cuddyer, for one.)

But for Walker to become elite, he's going to have to improve his plate discipline and get better at handling pitches on the outer half of the plate.

As I pointed out over in his "adopt a prospect" thread, 14 of his 22 home runs this year have come off MWL Eastern Division pitchers. Teams only play one 3-game series a year against each of the 8 teams in the opposite division, so Walker has 14 home runs in 24 cross-division games and 8 in the 76 games vs Western Division teams... teams and pitchers likely to see Walker several times, as opposed to one 3-game series.

If you want to say Walker's numbers are comparable to Sano, fine. But they are even closer to Mike Gonzales' numbers (BA, OPS, K-rate, BB-rate) from his 2011 season in Beloit, except Gonzales walked about twice as frequently as Walker does.

I'm not down on Walker. In fact, I think his defense in the OF has improved. Early on, I almost cringed when a ball went in his directlion. His routes are better now.

He's a fun player to watch, but I simply don't think elevating him to elite prospect status at this point is very realistic.

drjim
07-26-2013, 07:41 PM
I agree. They're also about identical to Sano's but that didn't stop him getting promoted.

He's done more than enough to warrant a promotion I think. Let's get going here, he's 21 already.

I would have no problem with a promotion. KLaw made the point that college guys are pretty wasted in Low A in general. But as stated by others he still can develop plenty and is youngish for a college guy.

mnfanforlife
07-27-2013, 12:29 AM
If Walker continues to produce his SLG% and other numbers at every level, then I don't care about the K's

lightfoot789
07-27-2013, 02:56 AM
At this point in his career (note the emphasis), he's mostly a very good "mistake hitter." He will absolutely punish anything you foolishly throw on the inside part of the plate.


I agree he pulls too much and is something he will have to work on. That being said: If anyone followed his college career - Half of his HRs were to the opposite field. (That is when he was considered one of the top power hitters in college baseball)


But for Walker to become elite, he's going to have to improve his plate discipline and get better at handling pitches on the outer half of the plate.

AGREED - although his K Rate has improved drastically.

Note however - Walker hits the elite pitching prospects in the league probably better than he does the marginal pitcher. Elite players produce.

lightfoot789
07-27-2013, 03:15 AM
Based on his dropping out of the New Twins Prospect Pipeline Rankings - The Twins think like you do too. (SD Buhr)

This years 3rd round pick (Turner) has bypassed last years 3rd round pick (Walker). How does a guy who leads or ranks Top 3 in the league in HRs / RBIs / TBs / Runs / Slug% / & OPS% get jumped over by a guy who is only 2 months younger and still in rookie ball. Help me understand?????????????????????????

Teammates & Position Players Ranked ahead of Walker:
Harrison 22.7% (K Rate) / .210 ISO
Goodrum 22.4% (K Rate) / .097 ISO
Kepler 19.7% (K Rate) / .184 ISO
Polanco 11% (K Rate) / .143 ISO
Walker 22.3% (K Rate) / .267 ISO

Not only did he not get promoted this season, Walker got demoted on his Teams Prospect List for his exceptional season. Am I the only one who finds this hard to understand?
MLBPipeline.com | MLB Prospect Central | twinsbaseball.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/prospects/index.jsp?c_id=min)

raindog
07-27-2013, 07:16 AM
You realize that the prospect list at twinsbaseball.com is not run by Terry Ryan, or anyone of importance, right?

lightfoot789
07-27-2013, 07:33 AM
You realize that the prospect list at twinsbaseball.com is not run by Terry Ryan, or anyone of importance, right?

This is Jonathon Mayo's updated list from MLB.com

Most people on this site respect Mayo's views and use his opinions as (somewhat) law. (Not that I agree with his opinons and/or list). He is a MLB insider who gets first hand info from GMs and other front office people. All I'm saying is it makes you wonder what he really knows?

raindog
07-27-2013, 09:10 AM
This is Jonathon Mayo's updated list from MLB.com

Most people on this site respect Mayo's views and use his opinions as (somewhat) law. (Not that I agree with his opinons and/or list). He is a MLB insider who gets first hand info from GMs and other front office people. All I'm saying is it makes you wonder what he really knows?
He's an insider, but I don't think he bases his prospect rankings on the views of the front office. I assume they are based on his opinion.

That's why this had me confused:
"Based on his dropping out of the New Twins Prospect Pipeline Rankings - The Twins think like you do too."

I don't think that's true.

kab21
07-27-2013, 07:54 PM
Right now Walker is a very interesting flyer in the system. You can focus on his production all you want but the poor plate discipline is going to lead to some big issues as he moves up in the minors and possibly as far as the majors.

lightfoot789
07-27-2013, 08:58 PM
You can focus on his production all you want but the poor plate discipline is going to lead to some big issues as he moves up in the minors and possibly as far as the majors.

I'm just trying to get a grip on this plate discipline thing. Are we talking lack of Walks? Are we talking strike outs? He doesn't walk much and I agree with that being concerning.

Yet his OPS is best in the league (.881)! His OBP is a quality (.330)! His SLG% is best in the league (.551)!
He does strike out at a 22.3% rate, but that is not that bad for a slugger at any level. He improved that from 30% to 22% in one season. Why are people still overly concerned with his plate discipline when he has shown Major improvements in that area? What are you basing this poor plate discipline on? Are you comparing him with other sluggers in the minor leagues or non sluggers?

kab21
07-27-2013, 10:57 PM
I'm just trying to get a grip on this plate discipline thing. Are we talking lack of Walks? Are we talking strike outs? He doesn't walk much and I agree with that being concerning.

Yet his OPS is best in the league (.881)! His OBP is a quality (.330)! His SLG% is best in the league (.551)!
He does strike out at a 22.3% rate, but that is not that bad for a slugger at any level. He improved that from 30% to 22% in one season. Why are people still overly concerned with his plate discipline when he has shown Major improvements in that area? What are you basing this poor plate discipline on? Are you comparing him with other sluggers in the minor leagues or non sluggers?

His K:BB ratio is awful. We don't have cool data like pitchFX but K:BB tells us that he is probably chasing a lot of pitches and/or having trouble making contact even with strikes. He has shown improvement which is encouraging but he is already striking out a lot against pitchers that don't have a quality breaking ball/fastball combo. That won't be true as he moves up to A+/AA ball and definitely not in the majors.

I'm definitely not comparing MLB K rates to low minors K rates. Most MLB'ers with high K rates didn't start having problems until high minors or MLB pitchers found the holes in their swing.

You are focused too much on K rates for comparable MiLB players. Goodrum (whom I don't like much), Kepler and harrison are all younger and all of them walk twice as much. And the K's are still a red flag for all 3 of them although not as big of an issue.

diehardtwinsfan
07-29-2013, 06:01 AM
I'm just trying to get a grip on this plate discipline thing. Are we talking lack of Walks? Are we talking strike outs? He doesn't walk much and I agree with that being concerning.

Yet his OPS is best in the league (.881)! His OBP is a quality (.330)! His SLG% is best in the league (.551)!
He does strike out at a 22.3% rate, but that is not that bad for a slugger at any level. He improved that from 30% to 22% in one season. Why are people still overly concerned with his plate discipline when he has shown Major improvements in that area? What are you basing this poor plate discipline on? Are you comparing him with other sluggers in the minor leagues or non sluggers?

Here's the problem. He's going to hit AA in the next couple of years at which point, he's going to see curve balls that he has not seen before. Pitchers are going to be able to locate those said pitches, and if he cannot lay off of them, he's in trouble. He's an intriguing prospect, without a doubt, but he's going to have start walking more and swinging less or he won't make it past AA.

cmathewson
07-29-2013, 09:23 AM
As long as the Twins continue to keep college guys in Low A, Twins college prospects will continue to be undervalued by outside observers like K-LAW. The alternative is to make them skip Low A, like Levi Michael. And that was a mistake. All things considered, I'd much rather err on the side of caution with prospects, and never mind the rankings. If he's good enough, he'll eventually get his propers, like Danny Valencia.

All that said, I think he's at least a month past the time I would have promoted him.

amjgt
07-29-2013, 12:54 PM
Here's the problem with the Walker situation.... who's he replacing in Ft Meyers?

Buxton.... Obviously not
Mike Kvasnicka.... Probably not.
JD Williams... Maybe, but he just received a deserved promotion from CR
Vargas... Not unless he gets promoted

They only way Walker makes sense to promote is if it follows a FM promotion. Vargas probably deserves it and the options at First Base in NB aren't making anyone blush. But then you're running a 1B/DH/OF rotation for Walker. That might be what he ends up as eventually, but I doubt they want to shift him away from OF quite yet.

The other option is to promote Kvasnicka, who's been really good at FM this year. That frees up RF for Walker. There's playing time to be had at NB in the outfield since the incumbent RF there (Parraz) is in his late 20s and is only holding his own.

This armchair GM thinks that probably the best option.