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Jeremy Nygaard
04-11-2012, 12:06 PM
Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:
"If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.

James
04-11-2012, 12:30 PM
Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:
"If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.
Can you provide a link? I'd be interested in reading that.

BigVin
04-11-2012, 12:43 PM
James, the above info i posted is from ESPN Top 50 list just posted yesterday.

righty8383
04-11-2012, 12:50 PM
I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

Cap'n Piranha
04-11-2012, 01:00 PM
Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:
"If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.

Obviously Giolito's injury forced him out of the top 5, but will he fall enough that we could use on of our compensation picks on him, and hope he recovers?

gunnarthor
04-11-2012, 01:00 PM
I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

Well, there are a lot of reasons to think the Twins will take him. 1) He might be the best player available at #2 2) A few years ago, the Twins decided that they needed to do more scouting in the southeastern US and they put Terry Ryan in charge of that area. The immediate result was drafting Nico Goodrum in the second round but Ryan has probably personally scouted Buxton. 3) Drafting toolsy high schoolers is part of the Twins draft strategy, that Ryan created. They aren't going to avoid drafting a guy like Buxton simply b/c they have too many OFers or b/c it's not an exciting pick.

James
04-11-2012, 01:04 PM
I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects
Agreed. We need the pitching.

Thanks for the link as well. This is interesting stuff. We'll have to see how these rankings change between now and June.

Shane Wahl
04-11-2012, 01:07 PM
Buxton will go to the Astros and the Twins should take Appel.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-11-2012, 02:00 PM
Obviously Giolito's injury forced him out of the top 5, but will he fall enough that we could use on of our compensation picks on him, and hope he recovers?

That's going to be the hairy part of the new CBA. With every pick that passes, the chances of Giolito signing goes down. Whoever drafts him would have to come up with a lot of money elsewhere. The Twins - with the biggest bonus pool - would be one team that might be able to get it done. The ripple effect would be a lot of college seniors drafted in rounds 2-10 (who take less than slot) followed up by a lot of high demand, hard-to-sign guys in rounds 11-20, in case Giolito doesn't sign after spending little on the easy-to-sign guys.

gunnarthor
04-11-2012, 02:00 PM
Buxton will go to the Astros and the Twins should take Appel.

Well, it is the Twins. How about a scenario where the Twins take SS Merrero (probably slotted to go somewhere around 6th or later) and pay him 1m less than the cap for a #2 pick and use (pocket) that extra million somewhere else?

nicksaviking
04-11-2012, 03:03 PM
I would be pretty disappointed with Merrero. If the Twins pick offense, they need run producers, and Merrero is another defensively safe, top of the order bat.

I don't think this list means a whole lot right now. We'll need to wait until the weather heats up, then we'll see pitchers fly up the rankings as they get the extra 4-5 MPH on their fastball and the have a couple more months mastering their second and third pitches.

diehardtwinsfan
04-11-2012, 04:17 PM
That's going to be the hairy part of the new CBA. With every pick that passes, the chances of Giolito signing goes down. Whoever drafts him would have to come up with a lot of money elsewhere. The Twins - with the biggest bonus pool - would be one team that might be able to get it done. The ripple effect would be a lot of college seniors drafted in rounds 2-10 (who take less than slot) followed up by a lot of high demand, hard-to-sign guys in rounds 11-20, in case Giolito doesn't sign after spending little on the easy-to-sign guys.

yeah, this is definitely the downside of the new CBA. The thing about Giolito is that he will be pitching again before the draft... If things look good, I could see them drafting him... In all honestly, they need pitching. I don't care if they go lower ceiling quicker to the show (Appel, Zimmer, Gausman) or a higher ceiling with Giolito, but the bottom line is that they need impact pitching, as they presently have little.

gunnarthor
04-11-2012, 04:39 PM
yeah, this is definitely the downside of the new CBA. The thing about Giolito is that he will be pitching again before the draft... If things look good, I could see them drafting him... In all honestly, they need pitching. I don't care if they go lower ceiling quicker to the show (Appel, Zimmer, Gausman) or a higher ceiling with Giolito, but the bottom line is that they need impact pitching, as they presently have little.

I don't see how Twins can take Giolito. Assume Gio needs 4m (that's what BA.com cited) and Twins have just over 12m to spend. They also have 13 picks in the first 10 rounds. IIRC, the cap on the #2 pick is 6.2m. The Twins can't realistically get to 4m unless they draft someone at #2 that'll take several million less than that and then hope that no one else takes Giolito before pick #32.

THE DFC
04-11-2012, 05:39 PM
Agreed. We need the pitching.

Thanks for the link as well. This is interesting stuff. We'll have to see how these rankings change between now and June.

I disagree vehemently. You always go BPA and figure it out later. It just depends on who is BPA on their list. If Buxton is that guy, you trust your scouts and pull the trigger.

There are solid to great major league pitchers available every year, and they can be had with the right set of prospects. We just need to be a lot more aggressive in these situations and a lot smarter (no Ramos for Capps garbage) when they present themselves.

If Benson, Hicks, Arcia and Morales are all good to great and Buxton is shooting up the minors and dominating at every level, you cannot tell me we couldn't move 2 of them for some serious pitching value.

Heck, we're probably better off if the pitchers are developed outside of the organization given our recent results.

shs_59
04-11-2012, 05:57 PM
I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects


Mistake #1
Common misconception among some fans here I see.

YOU TAKE THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE

If Buxton is there at #2 you absolutely take him, he likely could develop into a Jason Heywaard like star, in the meantime if 1 or 2 of Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Morales and Kepler pan out you HAVE the option to deal Buxton for a Matt Garza (or Better) like young arm when the situation presents itself.

with that said, everyones big board is different, Marcus Stroman RHP from Duke would be my #1 on my Board if he could grow just another 2 inches over night.

my way too early prediction:

Astros - Appel
Twins - Zuzino or Buxton, maybe Zimmer
Mariners - Zuzino or Buxton
O's - -- Zimmer or Beck
Royals - Zimmer or Guasman
Cubs - Marcus Stroman
Pirates - Carlos Correa or Devin Marrero

nicksaviking
04-11-2012, 07:34 PM
If you compare him to Justin Upton sure, but Jason Heyward isn't exactly a future Hall-of-Famer.

The problem with Buxton is that he is playing in a rural Georgia school district. It would be like if someone said the best player in the country was playing in Hibbing. He's likely not facing many pitchers who can even touch 85 MPH on the radar gun, and it's doubtfull that any pitcher's breaking pitches actually break.

samloupete
04-11-2012, 08:07 PM
I would not take a pitcher necessarily at the No. 2 overall pick unless he is a can't miss. There are, however, no can't miss pitchers in this draft. Appell and Zimmer are good pitchers, but not my choice. I like Zunino because Mauer will not catch forever. I would not take Buxton either because we have enough outfielders in our system. It is difficult to take a pitcher with your first pick. Gibson and Wimmers are good examples of that.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-11-2012, 10:23 PM
The baseball minds at BA think that Buxton is the consensus #1 talent. They also seem to think the Astros aren't willing to take the risk of drafting a HS at #1.

I'm all for taking the BPA, but if the Twins have a pitcher rated close to equal to Buxton, I'd error on the side of adding a pitcher to the stable. If they don't... well, would it be terrible to add the top-rated player on a lot of draft boards?

jtrinaldi
04-11-2012, 11:02 PM
The Astro's would be dumb not to take Buxton, who I think is the 1 premier talent in this years draft compared to last years with Bundy, Bradley,Bauer,hultzen,starling,cole.
The Twins are getting Shafted for having such a bad record, compared to who they would have been able to take at 2 in last years draft class.

Shane Wahl
04-12-2012, 01:47 AM
Buxton is the no. 1 pick, easily, And the Astros will take him. The Twins should take Appel. He goes to FTM immediately.

shawntheroad
04-12-2012, 06:09 AM
I think you draft best player whenever possible, but look at need if someone is close. The fact that Appel or Zimmer could fulfill a need in 2 years has got to be appealing. Unless Buxton's ability was so off the charts better.

Twinsoholic
04-12-2012, 07:38 AM
Ratcliff has stated that the Twins are looking to draft a college pitcher with their first round pick. I would be very surprised if they did not draft a pitcher--you don't get many chances to draft a top of the rotation starter. I would also be surprised if they did not use their sandwich selections like that did in 2011: select a hard-throwing high school pitcher (like Boyd) and a power-hitting high school hitter (like Harrison). They have two second round picks: perhaps a college catcher and another college starting pitcher. In June I get to see how far off of the mark my predictions are.

tpb8
04-12-2012, 08:03 AM
I think you have to draft a player at #2 that has a chance to be great. If the college pitchers available profile as future #2 or #3 starters, i think you go with a higher upside position player. If Buxton is there, you don't pass him up for a future mid-rotation starter just because that player will be ready sooner.

twinkiesfan11
04-12-2012, 08:40 AM
The Twins already have Hendricks, Wimmers, Gibson, Boer, Salcedo in the pipeline that profile as 3-4 starters with a chance to be a #2 if something goes dramatically right. Apple and Zimmer both have some serious questions including declining velocity in recent outings. Gausman isn't being discussed above pick 7 or 8 by most of the pundits from what I've seen. None of these three seem like a very sure bet to be even a future #2 starter so I question how much of an upgrade they'd really be over what the Twins already have. At this point if the twins go with pitching at pick #2 I'd rather see them go with Max Fried, at least there's some projection left to dream on and he's left-handed.

Steve Lein
04-12-2012, 09:17 AM
Ya, Buxton is playing very weak competition, and with that weak competition, he still hasn't hit a HR yet this season...

mike wants wins
04-12-2012, 09:40 AM
Best pitcher should be the choice. They have never in their history traded great prospects for expensive players, and does anyone think they would?

gunnarthor
04-12-2012, 09:43 AM
Ya, Buxton is playing very weak competition, and with that weak competition, he still hasn't hit a HR yet this season...

HS home run numbers probably aren't a good judge of future talent. Nearly every baseball scouting cite - Klaw, BA, Prospectus, Minorleagueball etc all have Buxton as one of the top possible picks, many thinking he should go 1-1.

nicksaviking
04-12-2012, 10:31 AM
The problem with projecting power in high school kids is that it is basically based on their frame, not their approach at the plate. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young were #1 overall HS picks. Both projected to have a ton of power and neither are mashers dispite the fact that the size of their bodies say they should be.

I wouldn't be concerned about any of the pitching prospects velocity just yet, it's only mid April. Velocity picks up as the weather gets warmer.

tpb8
04-12-2012, 11:07 AM
Would we really be excited to draft a futre #3 starter with the #2 pick? If Buxton never develops huge power, he's still got speed and a cannon arm. You can't draft for need unless you're on the cusp of something great. The Twins need to take the best possible player available, no matter the position.

gunnarthor
04-12-2012, 11:50 AM
The problem with projecting power in high school kids is that it is basically based on their frame, not their approach at the plate. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young were #1 overall HS picks. Both projected to have a ton of power and neither are mashers dispite the fact that the size of their bodies say they should be.

I wouldn't be concerned about any of the pitching prospects velocity just yet, it's only mid April. Velocity picks up as the weather gets warmer.

And yet Mauer became one of the top players in baseball. Projection is a big part of scouting/development. It is what it is and the Twins don't seem concerned about taking high school kids. In the last 15 drafts, they've used their first pick on a high school position player 9 times - six made the majors (Cuddy, Mauer, Span, Revere, Parmelee and Plouffe), two washed out (Moses and Garbe) and one is still in the system (Hicks).

shawntheroad
04-12-2012, 01:10 PM
And yet Mauer became one of the top players in baseball. Projection is a big part of scouting/development. It is what it is and the Twins don't seem concerned about taking high school kids. In the last 15 drafts, they've used their first pick on a high school position player 9 times - six made the majors (Cuddy, Mauer, Span, Revere, Parmelee and Plouffe), two washed out (Moses and Garbe) and one is still in the system (Hicks).

Moses washed out but i think it was somewhat due to a heart? condition. Hard to blame Twins there if not pre-existing.

twinkiesfan11
04-12-2012, 02:29 PM
Moses washed out but i think it was somewhat due to a heart? condition. Hard to blame Twins there if not pre-existing.

I think I remember hearing that about Moses too, not sure if that was what forced him out of the game but I remember he had it. Didn't Garbe have night blindness or something crazy like that?

jtrinaldi
04-13-2012, 12:30 PM
Another thing you have to consider is when the Twins actually have a realistic chance of competing again. What I mean by that is how advanced are the top prospects, and when is the likely ETA. This is a similar situation to the Brewers when the produced Hart,Braun,Fielder,Weeks. Those guys came up within 3 years of eachother, and then were able to compete at a high level. The Twins have Parmelee and Henriks up right now, if they can contirbute decently now, then the rebuilding process could be anchored by those 2 in the future. Hicks is likely to be up in late 2013/start of 2014 with Salcedo likely a year or 2 behind him, followed by Sano and Rosario likely in 2015. If the Twins draft Appel he likely would arrive in the Majors in 2014 as a starter. IF the Twins draft Buxton and put him on the "Hicks,Boyd,Harrison Route" he would play 2012 in EX.ST followed by instructs. IN 2013 he would spend a full year in low A ball. In 2014 He would spend a FULL year in A+ ball, in 2015 he would reach AA likely for the full year. Then if he spends half a year in AAA ball and dominates his ETA would be 2016 All star break. The thing that makes this pick interesting is that Appel is that Appel is essentially 3 years above Buxton, and he is obviously more polished. He would likely start his first full year in AA.

If the Twins draft Buxton here is what the development to the majors would look like.
2013: Hicks reaches majors sometime in middle of year.
2014: Salcedo,Arcia reaches Majors
2015: Rosario/Sano reach majors.
2016: Boyd/Harrison/Goodrum
2017: Buxton reaches majors.
This is a rough example of how much longer it would take for the Twins to see Buxton produce in the majors if they take him over Appel.


If the Twins draft Appel
2013: Hicks reaches majors
2014: Salcedo, Appel,Arica reach the majors
2015 Sano and Rosario reach the majors.
2016: Boyd,Harrison,Goodrum reach majors.

Drafting Appel would expediate the Twins rebuilding process, and make a core 4 in between the next 2 years


If you need me to elaborate more just ask.

righty8383
04-13-2012, 12:49 PM
A #2 overall pick, even if drafted out of HS, should take less than 4 or 5 years to reach the bigs. Mauer was drafted in '01 and debuted opening day '04. If the Twins take Buxton there's no reason (I'm making the assumption that he stays healthy and puts up solid numbers in the minors) that he can't debut sometime in 2015. That being said, I would prefer the Twins take Appel. I agree with those that say a team should draft best player avaliable, but to me it is not 100% clear who the best player is so I would prefer the Twins go by need.

Shane Wahl
04-13-2012, 03:39 PM
The BPA crowd is overlooking the fact that it is impossible to tell who amongst the top . . . whole bunch who is going to be the best, especially when comparing high school to college players. The draft is such a crap shoot. The Twins primary need is a good starter who should be ready within three years max.

Riverbrian
04-13-2012, 04:17 PM
The Farm system light. We need more advanced draftees. I don't know the players... I just think that you have to go college because they will be more advanced.

Steve Lein
04-13-2012, 04:35 PM
I understand fully the "Take the best player available" argument, and agree that 99% of the time this is the route that an MLB team should take in the draft.

BUT,

I also 100% believe that this season, with the #2 pick, that the Twins have to use that 1% exception, and go for a pitcher with ace ceiling no matter what with their second pick. They aren't going to spend the money on a free agent or trade to bring one in, so they HAVE TO do it in the draft. Theoretically, they're likely never going to get a better opportunity than this, so they HAVE TO go with the "Best Pitcher", not necessarily the "Best Player".

Also consider, that the sooner they draft an (hopefully) Ace type pitcher, the quicker he gets to the big leagues to help Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau out during their prime...

Seth Stohs
04-13-2012, 04:57 PM
Buxton is the no. 1 pick, easily, And the Astros will take him. The Twins should take Appel. He goes to FTM immediately.

You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

Thrylos
04-13-2012, 05:49 PM
2013: Hicks reaches majors sometime in middle of year.
2014: Salcedo,Arcia reaches Majors


The problem with this is that the Twins have control of Willingham and Span at least until 2014 and Revere and Plouffe until 2017. Unless there are some trades, Hicks and Arcia will be blocked. Add Benson to the equation (team control until at least 2018) and the numbers game gets ugly.

That's why trading Span soon, is a good thing IMHO

nicksaviking
04-13-2012, 07:47 PM
You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

Hopefully the holdout is a thing of the past with the new draft allowance. There will not be that much room to negotiate, and the players know that for every dime they try to squeeze from the team, one of their new teammates just got screwed.

Jskage
04-13-2012, 09:33 PM
But, if you look at the top 10 picks for the 2000's, the percentage of pitchers picked that are top quality are few and far between.
Position players tend to do better so I want the Twins to get a "can't miss" player and get their pitchers with later picks. If it is Buxton, I say pick him and enjoy it!

shawntheroad
04-13-2012, 11:09 PM
You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

getting one of the college pitchers signed right away would definetly be useful if the Twins go that route. With the potential starting staff of 2014 coming, getting a guy they feel will contribute quickly, in the fold quickly would certainly help.

If they do draft a college pitcher, i hope they gauge that it will be a quick sign. The new rules of draft compensation may help.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-14-2012, 06:42 AM
You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

I think the signing deadline was moved up to mid-July.

Seth Stohs
04-14-2012, 08:05 AM
I didn't like when players held out until the last minute and essentially lost that half-season of development. Hopefully the changes make that less likely. Appel seems to be a guy who could, if he signed right away, could go to Ft Myers and even get to New Britain. He could get a big league non-roster invite to camp and compete with the likes of Hendriks, Diamond, Wimmers and Gibson for a couple of rotation spots. If he waits to sign until late and doesn't play this year, he will likely start next year in Ft. Myers and see how it goes.

Then again, with his college coach leaving him out there last night for about 150 pitches, I get really scared of those types of pitchers. Ben McDonald, Mark Prior. So many examples of guys who got beat up in college. That's part of the crap shoot. Those guys could, rarely, turn into Justin Verlander... or they could be Mark Prior...

Jeremy Nygaard
04-14-2012, 08:48 AM
I think getting signed early and into camp and back on the field is a huge bonus, but I don't necessarily think we would see a huge difference in the Twins system.

Take a guy like Madison Boer, who signed almost immediately after the draft last year. The Twins limited him to 23 games and 25 innings last year out of the bullpen and moved him to the rotation to start this year... at the same level he left off at.

Corey Williams, signed at the deadline, pitched at Elizabethton a little to finish last year and is now in Beloit's bullpen. How much would have changed for him had he signed in July instead of August? Would he have gotten a late season promotion to Beloit like Boer did? Would he be in the rotation now?

Don't get me wrong - I would much rather have a guy under contract right away and getting acclimated to "the life" ESPECIALLY if he's a position player - but the Twins are going to limit pitchers innings regardless of when they sign. Does signing late hinder their development? That's a good question...

Again, I agree with most of what you said Seth, but in your example of Appel, I just don't see that much difference in his developmental path if he signed early or at the deadline. But what do I really know?

tpb8
04-19-2012, 07:19 AM
Please let us see Buxton or Zunino with the 2nd pick. The college arms are not high-end guys this year. Why bother with them? We need to take a potential superstar at #2.

gunnarthor
04-19-2012, 09:18 AM
Please let us see Buxton or Zunino with the 2nd pick. The college arms are not high-end guys this year. Why bother with them? We need to take a potential superstar at #2.

I mostly agree but a guy like Zimmer or Gausman could turn into a #1.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-24-2012, 09:37 AM
In the newest Ask BA installment there was a discussion about the top of the draft and Jim Callis's response was:

"At this point—though much can change in the next six weeks—I'd expect Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, Florida catcher Mike Zunino and four college righthanders (Stanford's Mark Appel, Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer) to go" in the top 6.

Although it's dangerous to assume these are the top 6 on the Twins board - and really only the top 2 matter - how do you rank these 6?

Right now, if I was running the show and all things were equal, I'd go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, Gausman, Wacha. I make my selection (hopefully) knowing exactly what my guy is going to cost (yes, I might take Appel over Zimmer if I knew the price tag was half a million less) and also being well aware of the fact that there is a really good chance I can get a high end pitcher in next year's draft. (A healthy Karsten Whitson, Florida, potentially...)

gunnarthor
04-24-2012, 09:44 AM
In the newest Ask BA installment there was a discussion about the top of the draft and Jim Callis's response was:

"At this point—though much can change in the next six weeks—I'd expect Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, Florida catcher Mike Zunino and four college righthanders (Stanford's Mark Appel, Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer) to go" in the top 6.

Although it's dangerous to assume these are the top 6 on the Twins board - and really only the top 2 matter - how do you rank these 6?

Right now, if I was running the show and all things were equal, I'd go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, Gausman, Wacha. I make my selection (hopefully) knowing exactly what my guy is going to cost (yes, I might take Appel over Zimmer if I knew the price tag was half a million less) and also being well aware of the fact that there is a really good chance I can get a high end pitcher in next year's draft. (A healthy Karsten Whitson, Florida, potentially...)

I'd probably grab Buxton or Zunino if Buxton's gone (actually, that's what I think the Twins would do. I like Zunino more). All the SP have big question marks, I think Zunino and Appel are the safest picks. I think Appel makes it to the majors quickly but he might not be the ace you'd like to grab at #2. Zunino seems like a stud and can stick at catcher. And the Twins can use their supp and second round picks on pitchers.

mike wants wins
04-24-2012, 10:19 AM
So how do you ever get good or great pitchers if you never draft them high because they turn out less often . That actually means you should take even more pitchers. All the hitter people here cannot answer where they ever get pitching if you always pass on it due to riskiness

gunnarthor
04-24-2012, 10:38 AM
So how do you ever get good or great pitchers if you never draft them high because they turn out less often . That actually means you should take even more pitchers. All the hitter people here cannot answer where they ever get pitching if you always pass on it due to riskiness

I think this year's group is not that enticing. Obviously, last year's group was mind blowing so comparing it to that isn't that fair but Zunino and Buxton have higher ceilings and Zunino, IMHO, is more likely to reach it than any of the pitchers. Now if Giolito (sp) hadn't hurt his arm, I'd probably be pushing to draft him.

The Twins have drafted a ton of pitchers in a draft before - the 04 draft they took 4 pitchers in the first and supp round. In 09, they took pitchers in the first 3 rounds. I just happen to think that the most talent they can get, right now, is taking Zunino or Buxton.

twinsfanstreif
04-24-2012, 11:10 AM
So how do you ever get good or great pitchers if you never draft them high because they turn out less often . That actually means you should take even more pitchers. All the hitter people here cannot answer where they ever get pitching if you always pass on it due to riskiness

The problem is that this year there is not a David price, strasburg, or even a Cole at the top. I've mentioned before that it's like the orioles taking Matuz instead of buster posey In 2008 which was a bad move. Also there really isn't that much of a difference between the guys at the top like Appel or Zimmer and the guys that could fall to us at 32 like Hanley, beck, or Brian Johnson. There however is a big difference between Zunino and Elander.

Thrylos
04-24-2012, 11:13 AM
Taking Buxton makes zero sense, unless the Twins are planning on thinning their current OFs in the minors sometime soon. Here is what They have as far as high end OF prospects are concerned:

AAA- Revere, Benson
AA - Hicks
A+ - Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia
A - JD Williams
R - Max Kepler

Add the fact that probably another top prospect Sano? Rosario? Goodrum? might end up at the OF (and so might Mauer when the bulk of these prospects are in the bigs), and the least thing you want to do is take another OF in the draft.

The Catcher might make sense, but I'd rather see them go after SP because of the questionmarks they have

gunnarthor
04-24-2012, 01:29 PM
Obviously, this means nothing but on minor leagueball's latest mockdraft (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/24/2971860/2012-baseball-mock-draft-april-edition)they have Guasman goine #1 and the Twins taking Zunino.

righty8383
04-24-2012, 01:44 PM
If the Twins go with a position player it has to be Zunino in my opinion.

Shane Wahl
04-24-2012, 02:03 PM
Taking Buxton makes zero sense, unless the Twins are planning on thinning their current OFs in the minors sometime soon. Here is what They have as far as high end OF prospects are concerned:

AAA- Revere, Benson
AA - Hicks
A+ - Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia
A - JD Williams
R - Max Kepler

Add the fact that probably another top prospect Sano? Rosario? Goodrum? might end up at the OF (and so might Mauer when the bulk of these prospects are in the bigs), and the least thing you want to do is take another OF in the draft.

The Catcher might make sense, but I'd rather see them go after SP because of the questionmarks they have


Exactly, and it's not even close. Zunino is not the only catcher out there, either. There are 3-4 high school catchers and 2-3 college catchers below Zunino who could be as good or better. Getting a top college pitcher who could end the year in New Britain is worth way more than gambling on Buxton.

mike wants wins
04-24-2012, 03:26 PM
i would respect the BPA strategy a lot more if this team would EVER trade multiple prospects for a legit, proven, MLB player, or sign legit FAs in their prime to fill holes that aren't filled in the draft. But they won't, it isn't in their DNA. And, do you really think there is no difference between guys that are likely to go top 5, and guys likely to go after 30 other players are picked? I find that hard to believe.

I'm cool with the BPA, but only if you are then actually willing to make trades and sign players that the draft can't fill.....but as long as you refuse to do that, you have to draft for position scarcity. And nothing is more scarce than starting pitchers, since you need 5-7 of them at any one time.

nicksaviking
04-24-2012, 03:30 PM
Buxton is far from a sure thing. He's no less a risk than the top pitchers. He hasn't gotten the hype of Justin Upton, Alex Rodriguez or Ken Griffey Jr for good reason, we have no idea how he would fair against better pitching. I'm less of a fan of Zunino. Rarely is a catcher a year-in and year-out impact bat. Even if he is a Matt Wieters, a .775 OPS guy really shouldn't be a middle of the order bat and I don't know how anyone could argue that we can expect higher production from a college catcher. Besides, even in a best case scenario a replacement value catcher is less different offensively than any other position, it's the nature of playing less than 150 games but doing so in a strenuous postion. The gap between Josh Thole and Brian McCann is much less than the gap between Jason Marquis and Justin Verlander or between Trevor Plouffe and Matt Kemp.

Zunino is probably a safe bet to be a very good player, but his ceiling has to be very low compared to Buxton and the pitchers. If I have a pick this high, I want a chance at getting the most productive offensive player or best pitcher in the league six years down the road. A catcher is very rarely the best offesive weapon in baseball. Mauer's 2009 season may have been the only time. Other catchers have won MVP awards because the voters include the defensive ability and the demand of the position in their decisions. I don't want safe and Buster Posey, I would rather take a chance on getting someone who could be considered the best player in the league for half a decade.

mike wants wins
04-24-2012, 04:22 PM
From Law's insider column today....

"Other than its ties to "Moneyball," the 2002 draft is probably best remembered for the massive gaffe the Pirates committed with the first pick, choosing (apparently at owner Kevin McClatchy's behest) a safe college arm, Bryan Bullington (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6448/bryan-bullington), over the high-upside high school player atop most draft boards, B.J. Upton (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/bj-upton). "

Telling me I'm an idiot. Well, I doubt he's reading my comments....but if he thinks the hitters are that much better than the pitchers, then he is....

Thrylos
04-24-2012, 04:43 PM
From Law's insider column today....

"Other than its ties to "Moneyball," the 2002 draft is probably best remembered for the massive gaffe the Pirates committed with the first pick, choosing (apparently at owner Kevin McClatchy's behest) a safe college arm, Bryan Bullington (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6448/bryan-bullington), over the high-upside high school player atop most draft boards, B.J. Upton (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/bj-upton). "

Telling me I'm an idiot. Well, I doubt he's reading my comments....but if he thinks the hitters are that much better than the pitchers, then he is....

Another interesting tidbid from the same article of interest to the Twins' fans:
Law indicates that Span would have been picked as the 9th overall pick by the Rockies but he wouldn't have signed for them because of the money, so he dropped to the Twins' 20th spot. I don't know whether to believe that or not...

gunnarthor
04-24-2012, 04:48 PM
Another interesting tidbid from the same article of interest to the Twins' fans:
Law indicates that Span would have been picked as the 9th overall pick by the Rockies but he wouldn't have signed for them because of the money, so he dropped to the Twins' 20th spot. I don't know whether to believe that or not...

I had heard that before, too. Twins and Rockies were both high on Span but not necessarily all teams. I think baseball teams have a much wider diversity of how they view prospects than casual fans who rely on a handful of websites.

Thrylos
04-24-2012, 04:57 PM
I had heard that before, too. Twins and Rockies were both high on Span but not necessarily all teams. I think baseball teams have a much wider diversity of how they view prospects than casual fans who rely on a handful of websites.

I don't disagree :)

what I am not buying is that Twins would potentially give Span more $ at the 20th spot than the Rockies at the 9th. Remember. That was 2002. Contraction time...

James
04-24-2012, 05:23 PM
Another interesting tidbid from the same article of interest to the Twins' fans:
Law indicates that Span would have been picked as the 9th overall pick by the Rockies but he wouldn't have signed for them because of the money, so he dropped to the Twins' 20th spot. I don't know whether to believe that or not... I have heard about this before. I believe they even mention it in Moneybal (the book, not the movie). I don't know if all teams were following slot recommendations at that time either. So it is possible that the Rockies skipped over him because they knew he wouldn't sign for any below the slot recommendation. There may have been other things in play then.

twinsfanstreif
04-24-2012, 06:00 PM
Buxton is far from a sure thing. He's no less a risk than the top pitchers. He hasn't gotten the hype of Justin Upton, Alex Rodriguez or Ken Griffey Jr for good reason, we have no idea how he would fair against better pitching. I'm less of a fan of Zunino. Rarely is a catcher a year-in and year-out impact bat. Even if he is a Matt Wieters, a .775 OPS guy really shouldn't be a middle of the order bat and I don't know how anyone could argue that we can expect higher production from a college catcher. Besides, even in a best case scenario a replacement value catcher is less different offensively than any other position, it's the nature of playing less than 150 games but doing so in a strenuous postion. The gap between Josh Thole and Brian McCann is much less than the gap between Jason Marquis and Justin Verlander or between Trevor Plouffe and Matt Kemp.

Zunino is probably a safe bet to be a very good player, but his ceiling has to be very low compared to Buxton and the pitchers. If I have a pick this high, I want a chance at getting the most productive offensive player or best pitcher in the league six years down the road. A catcher is very rarely the best offesive weapon in baseball. Mauer's 2009 season may have been the only time. Other catchers have won MVP awards because the voters include the defensive ability and the demand of the position in their decisions. I don't want safe and Buster Posey, I would rather take a chance on getting someone who could be considered the best player in the league for half a decade.

I don't understand this, you don't wanna go "safe and buster posey?" He is one of the best young players in the league regardless of the position. I live in Houston and we know what it's like to have Brad Ausmus for a decade. Imagine sweet drew as a starter for the next 8 or so years. Even if Zunino doesn't profile as a #3 or 4 hitter i'd much rather have a buster posey type(.280/.350/.750 with 22 HR and 75 RBIs) than automatic out Ausmus. There's a lot of value there and I'm sure the Rays are kicking themselves for picking the "toolsy" high schooler who was supposed to be the "next A-rod" rather than posey. Now they're stuck with Jose Molina until he gets too old and then who? I want a verlander type too but don't kid yourself, there's not one in this draft, we'd be lucky if one of these college guys turns out to be a Jared Weaver, Jon Garland, or Berry Zito, not bad, just not the ace type we'd be expecting. The only pitcher who profiles as a true dominant ace is Giolito. He is probably the only one in this draft that could at one point be considered the best player in the league, no one else really has that potential.

nicksaviking
04-24-2012, 07:07 PM
From Law's insider column today....

"Other than its ties to "Moneyball," the 2002 draft is probably best remembered for the massive gaffe the Pirates committed with the first pick, choosing (apparently at owner Kevin McClatchy's behest) a safe college arm, Bryan Bullington (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6448/bryan-bullington), over the high-upside high school player atop most draft boards, B.J. Upton (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/bj-upton). "
[/{QUOTE]

I see he forgot to mention that most scouts thought Zack Grienke was the actually the top pitcher in the draft that year but the Pirates weren't going to pay his asking price. He also conveniently forgot that two years later the Padres took lower risk position player Matt Bush #1 passing up Justin Verlander. Now that there is a draft allowance, teams don't have to worry about signablity.

[QUOTE=twinsfanstreif;12481]I don't understand this, you don't wanna go "safe and buster posey?" He is one of the best young players in the league regardless of the position.

I want a verlander type too but don't kid yourself, there's not one in this draft,we'd be lucky if one of these college guys turns out to be a Jared Weaver

Yes that is what I'm saying. Any team would love to have Posey, but he will never have the impact of Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp or Justin Verlander. Like I said in the previous post, the gap between Buster Posey and Brad Ausmus is much less than the gap between Justin Verlander and Jason Marquis. I'm certainly not making the comparison myself, but funny enough, here is an article that actually makes a Zunino/Ausmus comparison.

http://houston.sbnation.com/houston-astros/2012/3/28/2909156/mlb-draft-2012-mike-zunino-is-top-college-catcher

Besides, his higher strikeout rate indicates to me he could easily turn into a John Buck. Regardless, the Twins need Jared Weaver much more than they need Buster Posey.

Anyone following the draft who claims there are no aces coming out this year might as well tell the rest of us with, 100% certainty, who the 100 best players will be ten years from now. If people knew who was going to be an ace and who wasn't, Roy Halladay wouldn't have gone 14th overall. The velocity of the top pitchers in the draft this year and last is so impressive compared to previous years that we aren't going to know how it is going to translate until they get with professionals who know how to develop secondary pitches and improve location.

twinsfanstreif
04-24-2012, 09:05 PM
It's not that any of these guys won't turn out to be a front line starter, just not Verlander caliber and don't warrant the #2 pick. I believe there are some potential aces later but come with too much risk to take them at #2(Stroman, Fried, Giolito, McCullers, Smoral, and Beck all come to mind). I've never been shy about saying that I could easily be wrong so I'm not claiming to be an expert. Also in that article it only compares Zunino to Ausmus defensively and not offensively. It's hard to compare posey to ausmus because of sample size. But I did some research and I compared Ausmus to Pudge Rodriguez because I feel like that's kind of a best case/worst case for Zunino. I know pudge is a potential hall of fame player but if you're talking impact bat at the catcher position mixed with good defense he's who you look to. The career WAR for Ausmus is 21.4(admittedly higher than I thought, although skewed by a couple of good years with Detroit) over 18 years, an average of 1.18/year. And the career WAR for Pudge is 73.9 over 20 years, an average of 3.7/Year. It's also hard to compare verlander and marquis because their careers aren't over so the numbers aren't skewed by several years of mediocre ball at the end of their careers (interestingly marquis' career WAR average is 1.1, similar to Ausmus). So for a best case scenerio for a guy like Zimmer let's look at a potential hall of fame pitcher who's career is over in John Smoltz, his career WAR is 82.5 over 21 years, an average of 3.9/year. The difference between a HoF caliber catcher and a HoF caliber pitcher isn't that big of a difference. The difference lies in that there are 70 pitchers in the HoF and only 16 catchers in the HoF so they are few and far between, that's why a great catcher is so valued.

mike wants wins
04-24-2012, 09:11 PM
thrylos, I recall that from that draft, on Span....

nicksaviking
04-24-2012, 09:57 PM
That's all very true, but WAR takes into account defense for postion players so a strong defensive catcher, like Ausmus, Pudge or Johnny Bench, will get a large boost in that department. The problem with comparing catchers to other postion players with WAR, is that the stat is weighted to even out positional value. Firstbase is a relatively easy position, it is weighted negatively at -12.5 runs per 162 games played. Catcher is a tough postion and gets weighted +12.5 runs. I don't believe a pitcher's defense is even a factor in WAR. Even with the defensive adjustment, Bench, the catcher with the greatest WAR for a non-pitcher is 53rd on the career WAR list at 71.3. Aaron, Mays, Cobb, Bonds and Ruth more than doubled that number while 25 pitchers have a higher WAR than Bench. The Twins likely won't be getting a HOF player with the #2 pick, but if we are going to gamble, it might as well be on the highest ceiling and I don't believe a catcher, particularly a strikeout prone catcher provides that.

tpb8
04-25-2012, 08:59 AM
Why would we take a college pitcher that is a potential #3 or #4 starter with the #2 pick in the draft over a guy with a much higer cieling? If our scouts are doing their jobs, shouldn't we be able to find that type of pitcher in the supplemental round? Just because the current Twins pitching staff sucks doesn't mean we should run out and draft a bunch of good (not great) college pitchers.

Every pick is a risk. Give me a guy that has the potential to be a superstar at #2. You're not going to be in that draft position very often. Why play it "safe" (when there is no such thing as safe)? I'll take Buxton for sure, and Zunino over the college arms at that spot.

mike wants wins
04-25-2012, 10:19 AM
I'm not reading online anyplace that the top 5 college arms have ceilings of #3 pitchers. If you are going to make an argument, at least make a legitimate argument. Don't put straw man arguments out there. So, I'll ask you, where do you get #1 or #2 pitchers from, if you are afraid to draft them early in the draft, because there are question marks about them?

sotafan
04-25-2012, 10:33 AM
And yet Mauer became one of the top players in baseball. Projection is a big part of scouting/development. It is what it is and the Twins don't seem concerned about taking high school kids. In the last 15 drafts, they've used their first pick on a high school position player 9 times - six made the majors (Cuddy, Mauer, Span, Revere, Parmelee and Plouffe), two washed out (Moses and Garbe) and one is still in the system (Hicks).

The problem with this is that ALL of those HS players are position players!!! Not one player is a pitcher and that is a problem!!

gunnarthor
04-25-2012, 02:33 PM
The problem with this is that ALL of those HS players are position players!!! Not one player is a pitcher and that is a problem!!

You're reading that out of context, it was discussing the HS position players the Twins have taken and what happened to them. While the Twins have never used their first overall pick on a HS pitcher, they have picked three in the first round in that same time span - Rainville, Waldrop and Boyd.

I'm not sure why it's a problem in not taking HS pitchers, as opposed to other types of players.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-25-2012, 10:31 PM
With the NFL Draft tomorrow night, I'm in a draft kind of mood. So I sat down and, based on my own speculation, came up with a little something...

My "NFL Draft is Tomorrow night, so here's my 'ideal?' Twins draft in 2 months" draft:

1st round, 2nd overall: Possible pick: Kyle Zimmer, P. With a little luck: Mike Zunino, C. (When it comes down to it, I think Houston takes Zunino first overall). With a little balls: Byron Buxton, HS OF or Marcus Stroman, P. (Buxton comes with some risk and he plays a position that is considered an organizational strength, but he may have the highest ceiling of all players in draft; If all the pitchers were compared and the only thing you didn't know was physical size, the 5-8 Stroman would probably be the top eligible pitcher.)

Supplemental Rd, 32nd overall: Possible pick: Luke Sims, HS P (may be hard to sign out of Clemson commitment.) With a little luck: James Ramsey, OF/2B. (Ramsey was drafted by the Twins last year and turned down big money to return to FSU where he's having a great year.) With a little balls: Lucas Giolito, HS P (who knows how far he slides, could Twins be creative enough to get him signed?)

Supplemental Rd, 42nd overall: Possible pick: Travis Jankowski, OF (leadoff/CF type who has had wood bat success). With a little balls: Lance McCullers, HS P. (McCullers has been dropping down boards as it seems he'll end up in the bullpen.)

2nd round, 61st overall: Possible pick: Tanner Rahier, HS SS. (Consider me still a little bitter that the Twins didn't draft Trevor Story last year. Rahier may be able to stick at SS.) With a little balls: Nick Williams, HS OF. (Williams has a lot to learn, but tons of physical tools. Would follow the Hunter/Span/Hicks model... only take longer to develop.)

Supplemental Rd, 70th overall: Possible pick: Adam Brett Walker, 1B/OF. If Walker slips - or even if he doesn't - he makes perfect sense. He's a RH power hitter (hello, Target Field), is local (Wisconsin) and has ties to the Cities (Daddy played for the Vikings).

3rd round, 97th overall: Possible pick: Mitchell Brown, HS P. Probably the best MN prep pitcher since Brad Hand, who was taken by the Marlins in the 2nd round in 2008. He might be a reach, but he's a known commodity.

4th round, 130th overall: Possible pick: TJ Oakes, P. Another local pitcher.

Again this is all based on my speculation and a lot will change in the next couple of months... or days...

twinsfanstreif
04-25-2012, 11:30 PM
With the NFL Draft tomorrow night, I'm in a draft kind of mood. So I sat down and, based on my own speculation, came up with a little something...

My "NFL Draft is Tomorrow night, so here's my 'ideal?' Twins draft in 2 months" draft:

1st round, 2nd overall: Possible pick: Kyle Zimmer, P. With a little luck: Mike Zunino, C. (When it comes down to it, I think Houston takes Zunino first overall). With a little balls: Byron Buxton, HS OF or Marcus Stroman, P. (Buxton comes with some risk and he plays a position that is considered an organizational strength, but he may have the highest ceiling of all players in draft; If all the pitchers were compared and the only thing you didn't know was physical size, the 5-8 Stroman would probably be the top eligible pitcher.)

Supplemental Rd, 32nd overall: Possible pick: Luke Sims, HS P (may be hard to sign out of Clemson commitment.) With a little luck: James Ramsey, OF/2B. (Ramsey was drafted by the Twins last year and turned down big money to return to FSU where he's having a great year.) With a little balls: Lucas Giolito, HS P (who knows how far he slides, could Twins be creative enough to get him signed?)

Supplemental Rd, 42nd overall: Possible pick: Travis Jankowski, OF (leadoff/CF type who has had wood bat success). With a little balls: Lance McCullers, HS P. (McCullers has been dropping down boards as it seems he'll end up in the bullpen.)

2nd round, 61st overall: Possible pick: Tanner Rahier, HS SS. (Consider me still a little bitter that the Twins didn't draft Trevor Story last year. Rahier may be able to stick at SS.) With a little balls: Nick Williams, HS OF. (Williams has a lot to learn, but tons of physical tools. Would follow the Hunter/Span/Hicks model... only take longer to develop.)

Supplemental Rd, 70th overall: Possible pick: Adam Brett Walker, 1B/OF. If Walker slips - or even if he doesn't - he makes perfect sense. He's a RH power hitter (hello, Target Field), is local (Wisconsin) and has ties to the Cities (Daddy played for the Vikings).

3rd round, 97th overall: Possible pick: Mitchell Brown, HS P. Probably the best MN prep pitcher since Brad Hand, who was taken by the Marlins in the 2nd round in 2008. He might be a reach, but he's a known commodity.

4th round, 130th overall: Possible pick: TJ Oakes, P. Another local pitcher.

Again this is all based on my speculation and a lot will change in the next couple of months... or days...

I like your thinking with Giolito, I've been thinking about it and if he slips past the 6th pick no one is going to have the cash to get him signed except us and if he proves to be set on college then we get a similar pick in a potentially better class next year. I also hope McCullers drops that far. I hope we look at a catcher with one of our top 5 picks, if we pass on Zunino I hope we look at Elander, O'Brian, or Plawecki. I like Jankowski too although we don't really need another speedy center fielder. I think we'll reach for Oakes in the 2nd or 3rd, we always make sure to get the best U of M guys a round or 2 early. I hope Smoral's injury drops him to us because he could be a very good one. I think we also look at Brian Johnson, Chris Beck, Andrew Hanley, or Jake Barrett if they drop. In the first round I could also see us looking at Gausman, I'm not super high on him but if he can cut down on the wild pitches he could be a very good starter....or he could be shooter hunt.

Shane Wahl
04-26-2012, 12:47 AM
T.J. Oakes is not that good. Maybe 6th round at the earliest. And that is both what will happen and what should happen. The Big 10 has a major pitching shortage. And there are plenty of high school arms out there.

Shane Wahl
04-26-2012, 12:53 AM
Zimmer/Appel (wait and see over the next 6 weeks), Top LHP available, Kevin Plawecki, P, P, 3B, P, MI, P, C, P, OF, P, 3B, P, MI, P, P, OF, P (just generally, obviously not so specific) should be the general direction. Boyd and Harrison set a good precedent last year.

Puckmen
04-26-2012, 09:30 AM
I live in NorCal and go to Stanford games on a regular basis. I saw Scott Boras at a game last weekend, so that likely means that he is recruiting Appel to be one of his clients. If Appel ends up with Boras as his agent, he will be tough to sign.

James
04-26-2012, 09:56 AM
I live in NorCal and go to Stanford games on a regular basis. I saw Scott Boras at a game last weekend, so that likely means that he is recruiting Appel to be one of his clients. If Appel ends up with Boras as his agent, he will be tough to sign.He's not going to be that hard to sign. If he's picked #2, there's pretty much no way that he'll do better than that next year. As far as signing bonuses go, he is probably not going to get much more than the slot value, especially with the new CBA. The Twins have the largest amount of money for signing bonuses this year, but we also have a ton of high picks, so we're not going to blow it all on our first pick. It doesn't matter who the agent is.

twinsfanstreif
04-26-2012, 11:12 AM
T.J. Oakes is not that good. Maybe 6th round at the earliest. And that is both what will happen and what should happen. The Big 10 has a major pitching shortage. And there are plenty of high school arms out there.

I never said he was a 2nd round talent, I said they will draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round. We reach every year for local kids and especially U of M kids. Oakes is the best pitcher on the team and holds a 1.54 ERA, his Ks are ok but not great, he limits hits, and his BB numbers are pretty good. That sounds exactly like a kid that the Twins would draft. I have not seen him in person so I can't comment on his mechanics, velocity, and such but we will draft him and if they feel as though his ERA is enough to entise some other team we will over draft him.

twinsfanstreif
04-26-2012, 11:37 AM
After watching some you tube videos(I know they're not telling the whole story but it's all I have). I'm impressed by his growth between last year and this year. He has begun to extend his arm out more giving him more velocity and a smoother less jerky delivery. He seems to locate better as well. His delivery is pretty close to side arm but not quite there. If he raises his angle a bit and can generate a longer stride he could get better velocity. I don't know where he is at velocity wise because there was no gun but it looks to be in the high 80s to low 90s by sheer eyeball test. Go check it out on you tube, there's one from march 2012 and then another from February of last year. I don't grade him at 6th round by that tape, I would say 4th but I think he could be a solid major league 4-5th starter, maybe a long relief guy but that would be good for a 4th round guy.

Shane Wahl
04-26-2012, 11:46 AM
The Twins drafted him last year in the 41st round. There is no way his stock has gone up that much. I am being rather optimistic for him at round 6.

twinsfanstreif
04-26-2012, 12:00 PM
Another thing to consider is that he is a senior and with the new CBA teams will want to draft signable guys in the 3-10 rounds in order to get the guys with signability concerns earlier. It's also bad to look at things like previous draft round. Like I said he looked pretty bad last year and he's made significant adjustments. George Springer was also drafted by the twins in the late rounds(40-50) and was taken in the early 1st round just a few years later. It's not impossible.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-26-2012, 01:29 PM
One of the BA guys was asked recently if the Gophers had any draftable guys and the response was Oakes is a 5th round guy. He went so late because he wasn't interested in signing, he was more interested in returning to school and pitching for his dad... if my memory serves me correctly.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-27-2012, 01:11 PM
Early word says college pitcher.

A couple interesting notes in KLaw's newest insider article:

"Some rumors of team preferences are starting to leak out, although it's still fairly early. Some of the stronger rumors: Minnesota Twins (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins) with Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer."

"Teams seem to be operating as if the Astros are most likely to take Buxton, with only Houston, Seattle, Kansas City and the Baltimore Orioles (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles) scouting him at this point."

gunnarthor
04-27-2012, 02:35 PM
Early word says college pitcher.

A couple interesting notes in KLaw's newest insider article:

"Some rumors of team preferences are starting to leak out, although it's still fairly early. Some of the stronger rumors: Minnesota Twins (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins) with Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer."

"Teams seem to be operating as if the Astros are most likely to take Buxton, with only Houston, Seattle, Kansas City and the Baltimore Orioles (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles) scouting him at this point."

That's really interesting. Thanks for sharing. Need to learn more about those two pitchers.

maxisagod
04-27-2012, 05:26 PM
Early word says college pitcher.

A couple interesting notes in KLaw's newest insider article:

"Some rumors of team preferences are starting to leak out, although it's still fairly early. Some of the stronger rumors: Minnesota Twins (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins) with Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer."

"Teams seem to be operating as if the Astros are most likely to take Buxton, with only Houston, Seattle, Kansas City and the Baltimore Orioles (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles) scouting him at this point."

I like Gausman and Zimmer over Appel and Wacha. If The Astros start talking about pass on Buxton, could that change the Twin's plans.

ScottyB
05-02-2012, 11:13 AM
The only way I would take Buxton is if you can guarentee him to be a 40 HR / 120 RBI guy. Being a Heyward, 18 HR / 72 RBI guy with a possibility of 25 HR / 90 RBI, those guys are a dime a dozen. If Buxton is a lock for 40 HR, then yes. But the Twins need starting pitching - yesterday. We have no rotation for next season, whatsoever. Blackburn, Hendricks, Gibson coming off TJ surgery, Swarzak, Diamond - not exactly a stable of aces. At this point they need a pitcher with a ton of upside. And yes, I'd take a long look at Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Giolito, Fried, and Wacha. My guess with Giolito is that if he drops below the tenth pick, he ends up going to UCLA, and makes himself available in next year's draft, and at the rate the Twins are going, we could have a top two pick next year as well.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-02-2012, 12:00 PM
The only way I would take Buxton is if you can guarentee him to be a 40 HR / 120 RBI guy.

Mike Stanton, Bryce Harper and Miguel Sano, the three most powerful prospects over the last three years are not locks to hit 40 HRs. So if Buxton - who isn't even a power guy - was a lock to hit 40 HRs, he'd definitely go 1st overall.


We have no rotation for next season, whatsoever.

The draft isn't going to help with this problem.


My guess with Giolito is that if he drops below the tenth pick, he ends up going to UCLA, and makes himself available in next year's draft.

If Giolito enrolls in a 4-year school, he isn't gong to be eligibile for the draft for three more years. (Like Gerrit Cole, 1st round to the NYY three years ago, 1-1 this past year.)

I think it's pretty obvious the Twins aren't one or two or three players away. And with baseball being a crapshoot anyway, the only way to go is to find a balance between BPA and ceiling and go with the best guy. If it's Buxton, he's probably five years away anyway. By the time he's ready, Hicks might be a year or two from free agency.

twinsfanstreif
05-02-2012, 12:29 PM
That's really interesting. Thanks for sharing. Need to learn more about those two pitchers.

Zimmer's got better control and Gausman's got better velocity. Gausman doesn't walk a bunch but he's prone to wild pitches. I really like Gausman's wind up from a fan standpoint, it just looks cool, but it has a lot of movement and looks hard to repeat, it could also cause some stamina issues. He kind of looks like Dontrell Willis with the high leg kick. I've heard concern with Gausman's secondary stuff. I'm still torn on Zimmer, he's new to pitching so there's still a lot to learn for him. He's gotten his velocity up this year and cleaned up his mechanics a lot and developed a strong power curve and his slider is getting better. His delivery reminds me of Mark Prior, I hope he doen't have the injury stuff that mark did. He's one of the best athletes in the draft so maybe that'll help his stamina. If I had to choose right now I'd say Zimmer but I really hope the give a look to Giolito because he could be a star.

Jim Crikket
05-02-2012, 12:36 PM
After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.

James
05-02-2012, 01:00 PM
After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.Well said. Perfect example of this: Mike Piazza was selected with 1390th pick in the 62nd round of the draft in 1988. How did no one else select him until then? Everyone else must have been idiots for passing him by, right?

There are going to be first round picks that never make it and there are going to be later picks that turn out to be superstars. MLB draft is a crapshoot. Yes, I know scouting should help find better potential player, but they don't always pan out and there are always guys that perform much better than the potential assigned to them by the scouts.

MWLFan
05-02-2012, 01:30 PM
After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.

Jim Crikket is such a downer. Trying to take all the fun out of bitching about how stupid the Twins are. Well sir, you shall not take our mojo. We will still whine and demand for Vavra, Gardy or Childress to be fired no matter who the Twins screw up and take at number two. Just like we did last time they had that slot. Then you watch next year when we have the number one pick! Failure will be a certainty. Because we the denizons of the deep message board know better, right up until the point this player turns into a star in which case we reserve the right forget all that we have written before and praise him constantly until he fails in the "clutch", has too high a WHIP for our taste, see his range drop to Valenica levels or is started to be refered to as a battler. So there!

P.S. I would like the catcher as the college arms make me nervous they will fall off sometime in instructional league after being abused by their coaches. I see most of those guys as highly probable clients of Dr. Andrews. But then again how many of us really know wtf to make of the MLB draft.

tpb8
05-02-2012, 01:45 PM
If 18HR/72RBI guys are a dime-a-dozen, why don't the Twins have a bunch of them?

So, only a 40HR power hitter is worth the #1 pick in the draft? I guess a guy like Mike Trout wouldn't be worth a #1 pick this year.

Name 1 guaranteed superstar in this year's draft. (You can't. There's no such thing)

GooseBuster04
05-02-2012, 02:20 PM
I've been thinking about the Draft some lately, and everyone seems to think this year's draft class is down. Would there be any chance the the Twins could use the following strategy?

1. Draft the best player available for the Twins at #2 (Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, etc.)
2. If Giolito is available with the 1st pick of the supplemental round, pick him.
3. Throw whatever is needed (i.e. #1 or #2 pick money) at Giolito to sign him.
4. Offer #33 pick money to the #2 pick. If he signs, great. If not, we get the #3 pick in the 2013 draft which may be deeper than this years draft.

With the above strategy, the Twins could potentially get top 5 talent in Giolito in the supplemental round, the #3 pick in a potentially deeper draft next year, and their 2013 pick next year (at this point, it looks like a #1 pick).

Obviously, a lot of assumptions are being made by myself. I don't know if the new CBA would still allow the Twins to get the #3 pick next year if they don't sign this year's #2 pick. I also don't follow amateur baseball enough to know if the 2013 draft is expected to be deeper than this year's. I'm just curious what everyone else thinks of this as a potential strategy for the Twins.

Steve Lein
05-02-2012, 02:57 PM
After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.

You say that like the people replying in this particular forum are the ONLY ones in the world who do/will-do this...

You hope your scouts pick out a guy at the #2 pick who will make it, and make it in a big way. But if I'm using the scouting scale as an overall rating of a prospect, there are certainly draft prospects who are, say a 30/50 (present/MLB potential) that will actually turn into a 70, and guys who right now are a 40/80 who never advance past a 40 or never make it. You're obviously going to pick the guy who you rate as a 40/80, though. There's nothing scientific about it. A guy's either got it, works really hard to get it, or squanders their skills by not working at it diligently after being drafted, and you never really know which type will show up once they start playing professional games and where or when those qualities might change as they move up the ladder.

Hindsight is certainly 20/20, but don't belittle the forum on those terms, it's the same thing EVERYWHERE.

nicksaviking
05-02-2012, 03:02 PM
I still have a hard time seeing Giolito falling that far. There are several teams with two first round picks, those are usually the teams who take chances. Even so, with his stock rising again, he might get back in the top 10 if not higher.

ScottyB
05-02-2012, 03:09 PM
If 18HR/72RBI guys are a dime-a-dozen, why don't the Twins have a bunch of them?



The Twins have had a number of these guys - they just choose to not hang onto them - Ortiz, Hunter, Kubel, Cuddyer, Hardy and Thome are just a few that come to mind off the top of my head.

ScottyB
05-02-2012, 03:24 PM
So, only a 40HR power hitter is worth the #1 pick in the draft?

Not saying only a 40 HR power guy is worth the first pick. Just saying that the Twins have 6-10 'toolsy' OF'ers already in the system. This team hoards prospects and doesn't make trades. Instead we end up cutting them after they've lost their value instead of bundling them to fill needs. Not all of our OF prospects or current guys like Span are going to be able to play together. Why not trade while they have value instead of losing guys like Slowey after he became worthless?

Who's the last #1 type pitcher that the Twins actually drafted (not Rule 5) - Frank Viola? Actually, probably Garza, but they traded him. Their poor judgement of pitchers is the reason we can't win in the playoffs. We have a tendency to draft #3 & #4 starters.

gunnarthor
05-02-2012, 04:16 PM
I've been thinking about the Draft some lately, and everyone seems to think this year's draft class is down. Would there be any chance the the Twins could use the following strategy?

1. Draft the best player available for the Twins at #2 (Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, etc.)
2. If Giolito is available with the 1st pick of the supplemental round, pick him.
3. Throw whatever is needed (i.e. #1 or #2 pick money) at Giolito to sign him.
4. Offer #33 pick money to the #2 pick. If he signs, great. If not, we get the #3 pick in the 2013 draft which may be deeper than this years draft.

With the above strategy, the Twins could potentially get top 5 talent in Giolito in the supplemental round, the #3 pick in a potentially deeper draft next year, and their 2013 pick next year (at this point, it looks like a #1 pick).

Obviously, a lot of assumptions are being made by myself. I don't know if the new CBA would still allow the Twins to get the #3 pick next year if they don't sign this year's #2 pick. I also don't follow amateur baseball enough to know if the 2013 draft is expected to be deeper than this year's. I'm just curious what everyone else thinks of this as a potential strategy for the Twins.

There's a few problems with treating the #2 pick so poorly, first, they'd be much less likely to sign and either reenter the draft next year or play a year with the Saints. It would also destroy the Twins reputation with young talent, a group the Twins really, really need. Second, losing out on Zunino (or whoever) to pick third next year hurts the club. That pick might not want to sign with the Twins, b/c of their rep so we're going to have to narrow our field of prospects. And giving up talent this year just pushes the rebuild down the road a year. The #2 in this draft is a good pick. Whoever we grab is likely to be our #2 prospect and a top 50 (or better) prospect in all baseball. A few of the college arms could move quite quickly to help our rotation. Zunino's bat should move quickly, too. Also, Giolito isn't likely to be available at 32.

drivlikejehu
05-02-2012, 04:48 PM
If a team fails to sign a first-round pick, that slot money is gone from their cap. So it could not be used on other players.

However, a team can spend less than the slot amount and use the 'savings' on other picks. I think the Twins would be wise to consider making a deal with a slightly-lower rated player and using the savings to sign quality prospects who might slip. Most teams wouldn't be able to do this because their draft pool isn't significant enough to really find much savings.

Let's say a prospect like Max Fried was expected to go in the 8-10 range, where the maximum bonus is around $2.8 million. What if the Twins call up Fried's 'advisor' and said, "we'll take him at #2 for $4 million." That is more than even the #5 slot can offer without going well over the limit. How could he possibly say no? Unless a player has a real likelihood of going #3 or maybe #4, the Twins could easily save $2-3 million and get a high quality prospect.

The Twins could add multiple high quality prospects that way without losing too much. They won't do it but it seems like a good strategy for this draft, which doesn't really have standouts at the top of the draft like some classes do.

gunnarthor
05-02-2012, 05:01 PM
If a team fails to sign a first-round pick, that slot money is gone from their cap. So it could not be used on other players.

However, a team can spend less than the slot amount and use the 'savings' on other picks. I think the Twins would be wise to consider making a deal with a slightly-lower rated player and using the savings to sign quality prospects who might slip. Most teams wouldn't be able to do this because their draft pool isn't significant enough to really find much savings.

Let's say a prospect like Max Fried was expected to go in the 8-10 range, where the maximum bonus is around $2.8 million. What if the Twins call up Fried's 'advisor' and said, "we'll take him at #2 for $4 million." That is more than even the #5 slot can offer without going well over the limit. How could he possibly say no? Unless a player has a real likelihood of going #3 or maybe #4, the Twins could easily save $2-3 million and get a high quality prospect.

The Twins could add multiple high quality prospects that way without losing too much. They won't do it but it seems like a good strategy for this draft, which doesn't really have standouts at the top of the draft like some classes do.

Yeah, I've suggested something like that elsewhere. I like the idea but there is some downside - 1) you're not getting the best player 2) you don't know if they player will honor the agreement and if he holds out for a lot more, your entire draft could be in trouble 3) this draft isn't so deep that you want to ignore the best players at the top to take a few more Boyd/Harrison type players in the mid rounds. (Pirates did this a few years ago when they drafted Sanchez #4 expecting to use more money in the later rounds and stockpiling a few million for Miguel Sano. Didn't work out so well. Now they've gone back to usually targeting the best player.

I can see where the Twins decide that Gausman/Buxton/Zunino and Zimmer are all equally valid at #2 and decide to take the cheapest one but I don't think they'd do anything more than that, at least this year.

drivlikejehu
05-02-2012, 05:32 PM
Yeah, I've suggested something like that elsewhere. I like the idea but there is some downside - 1) you're not getting the best player 2) you don't know if they player will honor the agreement and if he holds out for a lot more, your entire draft could be in trouble 3) this draft isn't so deep that you want to ignore the best players at the top to take a few more Boyd/Harrison type players in the mid rounds. (Pirates did this a few years ago when they drafted Sanchez #4 expecting to use more money in the later rounds and stockpiling a few million for Miguel Sano. Didn't work out so well. Now they've gone back to usually targeting the best player.

I can see where the Twins decide that Gausman/Buxton/Zunino and Zimmer are all equally valid at #2 and decide to take the cheapest one but I don't think they'd do anything more than that, at least this year.

Yeah I mean, it only works if they have a relationship with the advisor/family and are confident the deal will hold. Rarely does something go wrong in those cases, and with the compensation pick next year it wouldn't be a catastrophe anyway, especially since they have extra 2012 picks.

The difference this year is that most teams will be more or less unable to sign guys who fall in the draft. In past years, a number of teams took advantage of high school players who fell over signability concerns.... Red Sox, Tigers, etc. Now that option has been greatly restricted. So a much larger group of talented high school players will still be on the board this year after the first few rounds.

It's just hard for me to believe it's better to have Zimmer than to have a ~#10 guy like Fried or Shaffer + 2 late first-round types.

Hardluckmnfan
05-06-2012, 09:56 AM
where do u stand on the top hs pitching prospect. By all accounts he has the best chance to be a true #1 ace type pitcher Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Calif.).

Jeremy Nygaard
05-06-2012, 10:17 AM
where do u stand on the top hs pitching prospect. By all accounts he has the best chance to be a true #1 ace type pitcher Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Calif.).

Giolito's stock is up in the air right now because of the arm injury. He will have a chance to regain his status as a top 5 pick if he is able to show that he is healthy before the draft. I'm sure all teams - Twins included - will thoroughly go over records and request MRIs, etc. because he could go anywhere. To be completely honest, elbow injuries are not something the Twins have done a great job of preventing or rehabbing before or after surgery, so I would have a hard time rolling the dice on a guy that already has an issue. On the other hand, I'd much rather have a guy miss a year and push back development time than miss a year where's he's costing the team $10m.

I guess that means I'd pass at #2 and if I have the chance to draft him later, maybe I draft him and see if I can get creative in how I spend my money.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-09-2012, 11:59 AM
Law released his top 100 today. Some notables:

Buxton stayed at 1. Correa and Gausman moved up to 2 and 3. Zunino and Fried round out the top 5. Appel has dropped to 6.

Rochester Century P Mitch Brown shows up at 45. Would appear to be a likely target for the Twins in the supplemental round.

Jorge Fernandez, a Puerto Rican CF, shows up at 96. That is usually around the time the Twins take a prospect from Puerto Rico.

gunnarthor
05-09-2012, 12:22 PM
Law released his top 100 today. Some notables:

Buxton stayed at 1. Correa and Gausman moved up to 2 and 3. Zunino and Fried round out the top 5. Appel has dropped to 6.

Rochester Century P Mitch Brown shows up at 45. Would appear to be a likely target for the Twins in the supplemental round.

Jorge Fernandez, a Puerto Rican CF, shows up at 96. That is usually around the time the Twins take a prospect from Puerto Rico.

Good point on Fernandez. Twins do a pretty good job of getting talent out of PR. I expect the Twins will also grab MN pitcher TJ Oakes sometime in the 5-7 rounds.

James
05-09-2012, 01:50 PM
Law released his top 100 today. Some notables:

Buxton stayed at 1. Correa and Gausman moved up to 2 and 3. Zunino and Fried round out the top 5. Appel has dropped to 6.

Rochester Century P Mitch Brown shows up at 45. Would appear to be a likely target for the Twins in the supplemental round.

Jorge Fernandez, a Puerto Rican CF, shows up at 96. That is usually around the time the Twins take a prospect from Puerto Rico.
I would not be against the Twins going after Gausman. He's profiling as a #2/potential #1 starter. He apparently has been much more effective since switching his out pitch from a curve ball to a slider. His change up is supposed to be good as well. I would not be disappointed with that pick. A case could be made that he was the BPA, and fills an organizational need.

John Bonnes
05-09-2012, 03:50 PM
I seriously wonder if the Twins would go after Buxton if he was available. Or would consider Correa. Either would be a gutsy move considering how much they need pitching. I'm not sure I'd even want them to.

shs_59
05-09-2012, 04:56 PM
Things change as the draft nears, but right now I think Carlos Correa looks like the best prospect in the entire draft.

I sure hope the Twins take Correa (assuming the Astros do not) , that way between him and Sano they'd have their 3B of the future, surely, and maybe Sano can play 1B/RF/DH... Correa is likely a 3B down the line but could stick at SS.
Correa is looking more and more like the TOP positional prospect in the draft now.

I'm 100% in the mindset that their is NO ACE in this draft, you take the TOP positional guy at pick #2 and take pitching pitching pitching with picks 32, 42 and 70 whatver.
Right?
I'm with John Bonnes...

my guess if i had to put out today:

1. Astros - Correa
2. Twins - Really hoping for Correa, but otherwise Gausman ? maybe?
3. Mariners - Zunino (catcher)
4. Orioles - Buxton - John Sickles doesn't completely believe in his bat
5. Royals - Appel
6. Cubs - Albert Almora
7. Padres - Kyle Zimmer
8. Pirates - Devin Marrero
9. Marlins - Fried, Smoral or Stroman
10. Rockies - probably a pitcher Beck, Heaney, Fried, Smoral, or Virant.

Thrylos
05-09-2012, 05:12 PM
Good point on Fernandez. Twins do a pretty good job of getting talent out of PR. I expect the Twins will also grab MN pitcher TJ Oakes sometime in the 5-7 rounds.

I think that Oakes will go higher than that...

Hate to say it, but the last Minnesotan who was drafted in pretty high roundand made it to the show was Glen Perkins. (And I totally hope that AJ Pettersen, Kyle Knutson and Austin Malinowski reverse this trend btw :) ) But there were some serious busts including Derek McCallum and Kyle Carr, so they should go with talent vs. home towns.

The more and more I think about the #2 overall pick is that they should go with the pitcher with the highest upside. And that would be Giolioto right now. They need to to their due dilligence etc. but they should not settle for an OF, SS or a C. Now, if there were a Bryce Harper type player, they should take him no matter what position he plays. But there isn't.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-09-2012, 06:34 PM
Hate to say it, but the last Minnesotan who was drafted in pretty high round and made it to the show was Glen Perkins.

Brad Hand (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/handbr01.shtml). Not that he's had major league success, but he's still young, and did make the show.


The more and more I think about the #2 overall pick is that they should go with the pitcher with the highest upside. And that would be Giolioto right now.

You gotta balance upside with downside. And Giolito's current status is hard to ignore. When it's said and done, I believe the Twins will go a "safer" route and tonight, if I had to guess, I'd say Kevin Gausman. But between now and then, who knows...

Jeremy Nygaard
05-09-2012, 06:37 PM
I seriously wonder if the Twins would go after Buxton if he was available. Or would consider Correa. Either would be a gutsy move considering how much they need pitching. I'm not sure I'd even want them to.

Big picture, the Twins probably draft pretty high in 2013 and 2014. Not saying that can't take a pitcher high in those drafts too... but I don't think - as much as I sometimes would like to - they're set on taking a pitcher.

DJSim22
05-09-2012, 10:19 PM
I think that Oakes will go higher than that...

Hate to say it, but the last Minnesotan who was drafted in pretty high roundand made it to the show was Glen Perkins. (And I totally hope that AJ Pettersen, Kyle Knutson and Austin Malinowski reverse this trend btw :) ) But there were some serious busts including Derek McCallum and Kyle Carr, so they should go with talent vs. home towns.

The more and more I think about the #2 overall pick is that they should go with the pitcher with the highest upside. And that would be Giolioto right now. They need to to their due dilligence etc. but they should not settle for an OF, SS or a C. Now, if there were a Bryce Harper type player, they should take him no matter what position he plays. But there isn't.
True that McCallum and Carr didn't pan out, but I think Oakes is far superior to Carr. I am of the opinion that Oakes is the best Gophers pitcher since Perkins. I also think Oakes is the best "pitcher" I've seen with the Gophers. He gets plety of strikeouts, but he really knows how to pitcher and work a hitter. I think he has a good shot at making the show one day.

tpb8
05-10-2012, 08:21 AM
I think it's fair to say that the Twins are looking to stock up on pitching in the draft, but i don't think that means they're set on using the #2 pick on a pitcher. None of the college pitchers are "ace" quality. I think they'll take a position player (Correa, Buxton or Zunino) with the #2 pick and then stock up on arms after that. You don't draft for need in MLB. Not with the #2 pick. That guy has to have the potential to be a star. If none of the college arms have that tag they're not going to use the #2 pick on them, they'll wait to grab pitching with their supplemental picks.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-10-2012, 06:49 PM
Baseball America released mock draft 1.0 today.

It had the Astros kicking off with Appel, though the argument was made for Buxton.

"Scouting director Bobby Heck has taken an up-the-middle position player with his top pick in each of his four drafts, and he and his staff are believed to favor Buxton, a five-tool center fielder."

It goes on to say that the owner appears to want to take a MLB-close-to-ready pitcher.

Callis predicted the Twins follow - and later confirmed this approach on Twitter - with best player available... and that's Byron Buxton.

"Minnesota needs plenty of pitching help too, but it will set its draft board and take the best player available. That should be Buxton, though Zunino would enable the Twins to shift Joe Mauer to a less taxing position."

I'm not Jim Callis or BA or pretend to be... but if I had to bet on how the Twins draft board looks on June 4th, I'm guessing it's Buxton/Gausman or Gausman/Buxton.

You can view the whole first-round mock here (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2012/2613371.html). You can also read a good story on Buxton, or should I say "Buck", here (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120510&content_id=30902602&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb).

I also feel that since I've mentioned him on the board a few times, I should mention him again since BA is showing him love. Him being Mitchell Brown from Rochester, MN.

From their latest draft tracker (http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-tracker/2012/2613362.html) (membership required):

"I saw three plus pitches and one average pitch," a scout said after the game. "It was maybe the best high school game I've seen pitched in 10 years." Throws mid-90s with a plus cutter and plus curve. Weight room guy.

If he didn't before, he has my vote for a supplemental-round pick.

30whales
05-10-2012, 08:11 PM
I really like Kevin Gausman, not that I know anything about any of these players. He does have a really weird ritual though. When he is pitching, he eats 4 powdered donuts every inning.

mike wants wins
05-10-2012, 09:38 PM
There are 10 aces on the planet, of course none of these guys look like aces.....pass on them all, then wonder why they have no pitching. How has that whole "draft the best toolsy OF" thing worked the last few years? This farm system has delivered nothing in three years...I'm starting to wonder if it even matters who they pick right now.

tpb8
05-11-2012, 08:45 AM
There are 10 aces on the planet, of course none of these guys look like aces.....pass on them all, then wonder why they have no pitching. How has that whole "draft the best toolsy OF" thing worked the last few years? This farm system has delivered nothing in three years...I'm starting to wonder if it even matters who they pick right now.

Can you list the Twins' history of recent success drafting collegiate pitchers? Gibson. Wimmers. Serious arm injuries. No MLB starts yet. Now tell me again how important it is to draft a college pitcher becuase "the Twins need pitching help". We draft a guy HOPING he might become an ace, even though nothing in his prior performance shows that potential? No thanks. I'll take the "toolsy" HS player or the stud college position player. Hunter worked out fine. Revere has seen some big league time at a very young age. Hicks is on track.

mike wants wins
05-11-2012, 09:14 AM
List the recent success for drafting hitters? Just because they suck at drafting and developing doesn't mean they should stop drafting players. Zero hitters have come up from the minors in three years, and none are on the horizon.....Look, I'm ok drafting all the hitters you want, but ONLY if you are willing to deal for or sign legit pitchers. If you refuse to do that, you have to draft some....Revere has shown nothing to indicate he's a legit starting OFer, yet. Hicks is all hype, and mediocre production so far. Our definition of "on track" is very different.

gunnarthor
05-11-2012, 09:42 AM
Zero hitters have come up from the minors in three years, and none are on the horizon.

Huh? Valencia, Plouffe, Benson, Dozier, Revere, Parmelee etc have all come up in the last three years. If you mean no hitter drafted in the last three years has come up yet, then I think you have to calm down a bit. It takes a lot of time for players to move through the minors and the Twins haven't focused on hitters. The 09 Twins drafted 4 pitchers before a hitter. The 10 team first hitter was the 71st overall pick (Nico Goodrum), Rosario was taken 135 overall. 11 we picked Michael (high A now) first (30th overall) followed by a HS prospect (EST).

mike wants wins
05-11-2012, 09:55 AM
And not one of those guys is a legit MLB player, are they? Valencia, Plouffe, Parmalee are at best backups, at worst AAAA players. Revere and Benson and Dozier, we don't know yet......Lots of guys come up, but not one of those guys is legit for sure. Of course I'm not talking about the last 4 years.....and MLB production. You need 5-7 starters every year, and 5-7 relief pitchers every year. Ignoring the position isn't going to help. Again, I'm ok taking toolsy OFers (sure would be nice if one worked out), IF you are willing to deal prospects for pitchers, and/or to sign pitchers. But, that has NOT been their MO, ever, and certainly hasn't been with Ryan.

gunnarthor
05-11-2012, 10:14 AM
And not one of those guys is a legit MLB player, are they? Valencia, Plouffe, Parmalee are at best backups, at worst AAAA players. Revere and Benson and Dozier, we don't know yet......Lots of guys come up, but not one of those guys is legit for sure. Of course I'm not talking about the last 4 years.....and MLB production. You need 5-7 starters every year, and 5-7 relief pitchers every year. Ignoring the position isn't going to help. Again, I'm ok taking toolsy OFers (sure would be nice if one worked out), IF you are willing to deal prospects for pitchers, and/or to sign pitchers. But, that has NOT been their MO, ever, and certainly hasn't been with Ryan.

And yet, somehow, they've remained extremely competitive until last season. Weird.

mike wants wins
05-11-2012, 10:40 AM
Nothing weird about that....my post is about last year, this year, and the future, not the last decade. I'm happy to discuss the past if we want, but this thread isn't for that.

gunnarthor
05-11-2012, 10:51 AM
Nothing weird about that....my post is about last year, this year, and the future, not the last decade. I'm happy to discuss the past if we want, but this thread isn't for that.

Well, if the people that had created the past decade were the ones in charge of the future, why so glum? The Twins have shown an ability to develop talent. I agree with Nick that this is the natural down cycle teams go through but I don't think there's any reason to think the Twins can't fix that. Each recent draft has it's own issues - either overall lack of talent (07 draft wasn't good overall - if held over, Revere wouldn't make it to #28), few picks or injuries. And I think people seem to think that if a first rounder doesn't turn into an all-star it's a failed pick. It's not.

mike wants wins
05-11-2012, 11:15 AM
Because the world changes, and they refuse to bring in outside perspectives and hire new people. It's the classic 1980s view of the world from Detroit, why worry about Japan, they make crappy cars....and, I'm tired of the "they picked late" argument. Philly has had no issues drafting great players recently (that they then trade for proven players). There is no natural down cycle that explains three years of zero legit MLB players coming up, that's just bad development. I agree it is a lot harder to build a team through the draft when drafting late, but that's their philosophy pretty much, to build through the draft or by signing older players. So if that is your philosophy, you need to EXCEL at it, not be average, or the same as everyone else. You need to be great at it, and they haven't been.

Why so glum? Look at the last three years (counting this) and who has come up, and look at AAA and AA players, and tell me, why should I be hopeful this year or next? I'm glum because I like it when they win, and I don't see that on the horizon, unless they significantly change their modus operandi.

gunnarthor
05-11-2012, 12:13 PM
Because the world changes, and they refuse to bring in outside perspectives and hire new people. It's the classic 1980s view of the world from Detroit, why worry about Japan, they make crappy cars....and, I'm tired of the "they picked late" argument. Philly has had no issues drafting great players recently (that they then trade for proven players). There is no natural down cycle that explains three years of zero legit MLB players coming up, that's just bad development. I agree it is a lot harder to build a team through the draft when drafting late, but that's their philosophy pretty much, to build through the draft or by signing older players. So if that is your philosophy, you need to EXCEL at it, not be average, or the same as everyone else. You need to be great at it, and they haven't been.

Why so glum? Look at the last three years (counting this) and who has come up, and look at AAA and AA players, and tell me, why should I be hopeful this year or next? I'm glum because I like it when they win, and I don't see that on the horizon, unless they significantly change their modus operandi.
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Jeremy Nygaard
05-11-2012, 12:18 PM
Ugh, you guys are going to kill this thread.

gunnarthor
05-11-2012, 12:20 PM
Ugh, you guys are going to kill this thread.

Yeah, you're right. Sorry.

tpb8
05-11-2012, 12:46 PM
And not one of those guys is a legit MLB player, are they? Valencia, Plouffe, Parmalee are at best backups, at worst AAAA players. Revere and Benson and Dozier, we don't know yet......Lots of guys come up, but not one of those guys is legit for sure. Of course I'm not talking about the last 4 years.....and MLB production. You need 5-7 starters every year, and 5-7 relief pitchers every year. Ignoring the position isn't going to help. Again, I'm ok taking toolsy OFers (sure would be nice if one worked out), IF you are willing to deal prospects for pitchers, and/or to sign pitchers. But, that has NOT been their MO, ever, and certainly hasn't been with Ryan.

Well, Plouffe is 25, Parmelee is 24, Revere is 23 and Benson is 24. All of them have played in the majors. They are hardly finished products at this point. Are writing them off already? I'm not. Just as i'm not writing off Wimmers or Gibson. However, many fans are clamoring for the Twins to pick a college pitcher at #2 because "the Twins need pitching" but that route is no more a sure bet than the toolsy position player. Possibly even less so. At #2 you draft best player available no matter which position they play. You don't reach to fill a need. Ever.

mike wants wins
05-11-2012, 01:08 PM
Ugh, you guys are going to kill this thread.

Good point, sorry about that. Lots of passion around the Twins and getting better....

mike wants wins
05-11-2012, 01:11 PM
Well, Plouffe is 25, Parmelee is 24, Revere is 23 and Benson is 24. All of them have played in the majors. They are hardly finished products at this point. Are writing them off already? I'm not. Just as i'm not writing off Wimmers or Gibson. However, many fans are clamoring for the Twins to pick a college pitcher at #2 because "the Twins need pitching" but that route is no more a sure bet than the toolsy position player. Possibly even less so. At #2 you draft best player available no matter which position they play. You don't reach to fill a need. Ever.

I'm not writing off anyone yet, and in the spirit of the thread, I'll only look forward in this thread, at new players.

gunnarthor
05-18-2012, 09:07 AM
In his chat yesterday, Klaw was asked about Twins approach and noted, "I've heard them on Zimmer, and I know they've at least considered Giolito, so yes, they're looking at high upside arms."

twinsfanstreif
05-18-2012, 09:43 AM
I had a dream last night that we drafted Richie Shaffer at #2, I was confused and pretty pissed. It was one of those dreams where it felt real so I woke up kinda mad. I guess it could be worse but I'm glad that was just a dream. Although I wouldn't put it past the twins to make a bone headed move like that.

gunnarthor
05-18-2012, 09:50 AM
I had a dream last night that we drafted Richie Shaffer at #2, I was confused and pretty pissed. It was one of those dreams where it felt real so I woke up kinda mad. I guess it could be worse but I'm glad that was just a dream. Although I wouldn't put it past the twins to make a bone headed move like that.

Hey, he'd be our third baseman of the future!

travistwinstalk
05-18-2012, 11:29 AM
in my mind the pick is between Buxton and Appel whoever is left you take them and move on to scouting for your comp picks.

DJSim22
05-18-2012, 01:02 PM
I don't know exactly why, but I just don't think Appel is going to be anything more than average. Zunino, Zimmer, or the young SS should be the pick imo. I think they have the most potential of the players mentioned. Giolito scares the heck out of me with the arms problems the team already has, and the crack medical staff we seem to have.

cmb0252
05-19-2012, 11:20 PM
After seeing his SEC splits I'm starting to cool on Zunino. Both KLaw and Callis point out that Zunino is a clear cut grade below Weiters/Posey. While he profiles as a +catcher his hit tools/power are both a grade or two below those two. Add in the fact the #2 overall pick slot bonus is 6.2M, same as Posey and .2M more than Weiters, I just cant justify taking him there unless he signs under slot. Now, if they were able to sign him for 5M-5.4M and relocate the rest of that money to the #32/#42 picks I could change my tune.

One of the players I'm sad that hasn't been linked to the Twins is Correa. He has best of class potential, only person with a higher ceiling is Buxton, while just turning 17. He is a year and a half younger then Buxton who is one of the older HS players in the draft. While he most likely wont stay at SS he could be a plus to plus plus at 3B. Having above average to plus defense and 25-30+ HR power from the hot corner. The idea of a a Sano/Correa 1-2 combo in the middle of our line-up just gets me giddy.

gunnarthor
05-20-2012, 12:02 AM
Klaw's latest mock (http://espn.go.com/videohub/video/clip?id=7947216&categoryid=2378529)has the Twins taking Buxton. According to Klaw, he's talked to people around the league and the "Twins are really hoping Buxton falls to them at #2."

tpb8
05-21-2012, 02:59 PM
If the Twins are talking about Buxton at #2, shouldn't we see it as a smokescreen? I have never heard the Twins leak their pick preferences before. I mean....ever.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-21-2012, 03:06 PM
If it is a smokescreen, it's completely unnecessary. They can't trade their pick and if the only team ahead of them likes the same guy they do, it's not gonna do any good.

The Twins were in on Wimmers a few years ago and it wasn't any secret.

At the end of the day, the Twins could do worse than taking Buxton.

gunnarthor
05-21-2012, 03:48 PM
If the Twins are talking about Buxton at #2, shouldn't we see it as a smokescreen? I have never heard the Twins leak their pick preferences before. I mean....ever.

I'm not sure they're leaking anything now, we just have more information out there. I don't know, but I could guess that Klaw has sources that might have confirmed to him things like 1) Twins were sending more of their cross checkers to view Buxton than any other player or 2) that they had been in communication with his 'agent' about what kind of signing bonus he's looking for. From that, Klaw might have talked to a Seattle scout who, putting two and two together, gave him his Twins are hoping Buxton falls quote.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-29-2012, 03:11 PM
KLaw just relesed mock draft 2.0 and has the Twins still taking Buxton though he notes that he thinks they have Appel #1 on their board and that Buxton and Zimmer are both still in play.

gunnarthor
05-29-2012, 03:42 PM
KLaw just relesed mock draft 2.0 and has the Twins still taking Buxton though he notes that he thinks they have Appel #1 on their board and that Buxton and Zimmer are both still in play.

With the Twins history with Boras, I just don't see how they'd take Appel.