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cmb0252
07-05-2013, 04:03 PM
Today BaseballAmerica released another installment of their prospect hot sheet and coming in at number two on their list was a name we have heard before. Byron Buxton. Here is what they had to say about the only Twins prospect to make the list this week:

No. 2 Byron Buxton, cf, Twins
Team: high Class A Fort Myers (Florida State)
Age: 19
Why He’s Here: .526/.526/.632 (10-for-19), 5 R, 2 2B, 3 RBIs, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1-for-1 SB
The Scoop: On Buxton’s first three days after his promotion to Fort Myers, he went 2-for-13. Consider that his three-day transition to the Florida State League. Since then, he’s gone the 10-for-19 you see above, with four straight multi-hit games. He also has made a few outstanding catches in center field. Of all the amazing things things about Buxton’s full-season debut, his consistency may be the most impressive. He has yet to go three straight games without a hit. He has gone hitless in back-to-back games just twice all year.

J.J. Cooper hosted a chat and he answered this question about Mr. Buxton.


Byron Buxton, will he be given the chance to compete for a starting spot next spring?


J.J. Cooper: Don't see that. It has happened before (see Albert Pujols in 2001), but it's way more likely he starts next year in Double-A and makes it to the majors before the end of 2014 if he doesn't have any setbacks.


For the full prospect list follow the link below:
Prospect Hot Sheet (July 5): Precocious Julio Urias Earns Top Spot - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-5/)

(Also, Monday BA will be releasing their mid season prospect list. Will Buxton be #1?)

jokin
07-05-2013, 11:04 PM
The invocation of Pujols' name is certainly interesting. The 3-team option should definitely be on the table for Buxton. Pujols, in the year 2000, at age 20, played 109 games in the Midwest League for Peoria with a slash line of .324/.389/.565/.953 (compare this to Buxton's Midwest League slash of .341/.431/.559/.990!!! at age 19)... followed by 21 games at High A in the Carolina League and then 3 games in AAA- with mediocre numbers at each SSS stop.

Yes, it's been said before..... but if things continue to go this well for Buck at Ft Myers (again, the FSL is supposedly the "pitcher's league"), I'd like to see the organization give him an opportunity to try out another level (AA or AAA) for a SSS in August, and then get a call-up in 2014 after the arb. date.

2014 is shaping up as another year of extreme puntage anyway. Why not call him up at some point next year before the September expansion of the rosters?

drjim
07-06-2013, 08:42 AM
I very much think Buxton is on the timetable you suggested. If he keeps producing the Twins won't keep him down. He could definitely be up after the arb deadline next year.

I still disagree that next year is shaping up to be extreme puntage.

2wins87
07-06-2013, 08:59 AM
Yes, it's been said before..... but if things continue to go this well for Buck at Ft Myers (again, the FSL is supposedly the "pitcher's league"), I'd like to see the organization give him an opportunity to try out another level (AA or AAA) for a SSS in August, and then get a call-up in 2014 after the arb. date.

If he stays in A+ he'll get to play in the playoffs in September. New Britain might make the playoffs, but not in their position right now. This probably isn't a huge consideration but it could be reasonable justification for keeping him down in order to get a bit more playing time.

But he does seem to adjust ridiculously quickly. I would like to see him reach AA this year.

Boone
07-06-2013, 09:04 AM
I think it's worth noting that Buxton's plate discipline has regressed significantly at Fort Myers:
A: 44BB:56K in 270 AB 13.7%BB 17.4%K .79BB/K
A+: 1BB:7K in 35 AB 2.8%BB 19.4%K .14BB/K

First of all, Buxton displayed tremendous plate discipline for a 19 year in his first year of full season ball. He has, however, regressed significantly in A+. Buxton will surely improve these numbers, but it goes to show that he does have things to work on in Fort Myers.

carlsonp
07-06-2013, 09:50 AM
Rob Antony just said on AM 1500 that a move to New Britain is certainly a possibility for Buxton this year. He did mention the playoffs, however, and that they like getting guys playoff experience, so that could be a factor if New Britain doesn't make it to the postseason.

Turd Furgeson
07-06-2013, 10:01 AM
I think it's worth noting that Buxton's plate discipline has regressed significantly at Fort Myers:
A: 44BB:56K in 270 AB 13.7%BB 17.4%K .79BB/K
A+: 1BB:7K in 35 AB 2.8%BB 19.4%K .14BB/K

First of all, Buxton displayed tremendous plate discipline for a 19 year in his first year of full season ball. He has, however, regressed significantly in A+. Buxton will surely improve these numbers, but it goes to show that he does have things to work on in Fort Myers.

That sample size is so small that there's hardly any valuable information to get from it. Also he's hitting .400 so it's really not a big deal at the moment, especially when I read scouting reports that his approach is comparable to Mauer or Pujols.

blairpaul715
07-06-2013, 11:08 AM
I think it's worth noting that Buxton's plate discipline has regressed significantly at Fort Myers:
A: 44BB:56K in 270 AB 13.7%BB 17.4%K .79BB/K
A+: 1BB:7K in 35 AB 2.8%BB 19.4%K .14BB/K

First of all, Buxton displayed tremendous plate discipline for a 19 year in his first year of full season ball. He has, however, regressed significantly in A+. Buxton will surely improve these numbers, but it goes to show that he does have things to work on in Fort Myers.

Of course he has things to work on, but the BB rate is still an extremely small sample size, as is it pertains to Batting Average also. Also, I believe pitching is better and probably wont walk as much early until pitchers are trying to be pinpoint on hitting there corner spots, and when they are missing the spots he will walk more. There also could be a slightly diff strike zone , being the umpires should be better at this level.

Boone
07-06-2013, 12:58 PM
That sample size is so small that there's hardly any valuable information to get from it. Also he's hitting .400 so it's really not a big deal at the moment, especially when I read scouting reports that his approach is comparable to Mauer or Pujols.

Yes it's a small sample size but I don't think sample size matters as much when looking at plate discipline, because a player's approach is much more consistent from one AB to another than the result of a ball in play. Anyways, if it's too small to be concerned about his plate discipline, than it's too small to take note of his high average (his BABIP is .482).


As for the comparisons to Mauer and Pujols, they are probably valid. But it's worth remembering that those are based off of his play in Cedar Rapids, not Fort Myers. It's possible that his approach has taken a bit of a step back against better pitching.

I expect Buxton's K's and BB's will return to what he posted in A ball within a month or two. But until he makes an improvement in that area, I think it's too early to start talking about a promotion to AA.

gunnarthor
07-06-2013, 01:17 PM
Yes it's a small sample size but I don't think sample size matters as much when looking at plate discipline, because a player's approach is much more consistent from one AB to another than the result of a ball in play. Anyways, if it's too small to be concerned about his plate discipline, than it's too small to take note of his high average (his BABIP is .482).


As for the comparisons to Mauer and Pujols, they are probably valid. But it's worth remembering that those are based off of his play in Cedar Rapids, not Fort Myers. It's possible that his approach has taken a bit of a step back against better pitching.

I expect Buxton's K's and BB's will return to what he posted in A ball within a month or two. But until he makes an improvement in that area, I think it's too early to start talking about a promotion to AA.

If 4 of his hits were walks instead, his walk rate would be around 13% which is what is was at A ball. Rate stats are not that consistent over 35 at bats.