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Terry Tiffee
04-08-2012, 12:38 AM
Does Gardenhire go on the proverbial hot seat?

Before I explain, I should probably make it clear I'm not trying to be one of those fans that overreacts over 2 games, but with his playoff failures, and now the fact that the wheels are starting to come off (based on last year), at what point do you think the team would think about making a change? I like Gardy, but it almost seems like his act is starting to wear thin, and sometimes change is a good thing.

Just curious to get your thoughts. I think, and hope, he lasts the whole year. Midseason firings normally don't benefit anybody, really.

JB_Iowa
04-08-2012, 11:16 AM
I don't see him going on the hot seat (more's the pity). Ryan had to know that they have a mediocre team at best. If Mauer and Morneau start performing like their "old" (pre-injury) selves but the surrounding players don't support them, it still seems like more of a Ryan failure than a Gardenhire one.

But I doubt that either of them would lose their jobs -- and never at mid-season. After the season, the team might gracefully find a way for them to exit (a la Ryan's 1st retirement).

John Bonnes
04-08-2012, 11:21 AM
48 hours ago I would have thought that Gardy was safe for as long as he wanted. But now I'm wondering. It's a nebulous answer, but it depends how the team looks as much as the results. If they look ugly, you never know. Things could go south much faster than I would have thought.

whydidnt
04-08-2012, 11:27 AM
I hope it doesn't happen. But, if the Twins lose close to 100 games again this year, then it sure should happen. That means that the Twins have had a payroll in the top 1/2 of the league for 2 straight years, and turned it into 2 of the worst results in team history. Someone has to take the blame and it only makes sense that the manager shares in that. I would imagine if we end up there again, Gardy himself might want to consider a change, I don't think he had a lot of fun last year.

mnfireman
04-08-2012, 11:30 AM
Ryan overhauled the roster, but was limited by budget. Gardy continuosly runs the same guys out there with no accountability. Glad too see Valencia get benched after yesterday, sit him for a couple games. Revere is (pick your Gardy favorite from the past) but because he hits .300 its ok. No its not and the argument that a single or BB is the same as a double or triple is not valid because doubles and triples drive in runs and you can't steal a base if its occupied by someone else. Trade some of these OF prospects for pitching help and look to the future, this season could be painful.

spideyo
04-08-2012, 11:51 AM
While the players haven't been doing great, I actually think Gardy has made some decent coaching moves so far. After Doumit turned a fly ball into a triple, he didn't start the next game. Valencia had a rough game, and Casilla hasn't been hitting, and they are sitting today. These are the kinds of things that a manager can control. He can't make guys hit better, he can't make guys play better. But he can hold them accountable, and pull them when they are not doing well.

denarded
04-08-2012, 12:22 PM
I know the poster said "It's only 2 games" but I can't believe were 2 games in and have threads on "Fire Gardy" and "Panic Yet" Sheesh...I thought this place would be a little more positive/realistic than BYTO. Same delusionals, different url.

gunnarthor
04-08-2012, 12:23 PM
Does Gardenhire go on the proverbial hot seat?

Before I explain, I should probably make it clear I'm not trying to be one of those fans that overreacts over 2 games, but with his playoff failures, and now the fact that the wheels are starting to come off (based on last year), at what point do you think the team would think about making a change? I like Gardy, but it almost seems like his act is starting to wear thin, and sometimes change is a good thing.

Just curious to get your thoughts. I think, and hope, he lasts the whole year. Midseason firings normally don't benefit anybody, really.

He's not in the hot seat. Ryan and the Pohlad's aren't going to fire him. The Twins very rarely fire anyone and Gardy's been a very good manager.

Terry Tiffee
04-08-2012, 01:03 PM
I know the poster said "It's only 2 games" but I can't believe were 2 games in and have threads on "Fire Gardy" and "Panic Yet" Sheesh...I thought this place would be a little more positive/realistic than BYTO. Same delusionals, different url.

Not delusional. What's delusional is letting a manager continue to get a free pass with a historically bad playoff record.

Terry Tiffee
04-08-2012, 01:05 PM
He's not in the hot seat. Ryan and the Pohlad's aren't going to fire him. The Twins very rarely fire anyone and Gardy's been a very good manager.

He's won crappy divisions and has embarrassed himself and the team in the playoffs. "Very good manager" might be a little generous.

Thrylos
04-08-2012, 01:08 PM
I thought this place would be a little more positive/realistic than BYTO. Same delusionals, different url.

Positive and realistic sometimes are not the same, unfortunately.

As far as the original question goes: I think that Gardy is already on the hot seat and if the Twins do not make the post-season (given the dismal performance the last few seasons) I think he (and Ryan) are goners.

Terry Tiffee
04-08-2012, 01:09 PM
Positive and realistic sometimes are not the same, unfortunately.

As far as the original question goes: I think that Gardy is already on the hot seat and if the Twins do not make the post-season (given the dismal performance the last few seasons) I think he (and Ryan) are goners.

In most organizations, I'd agree. I have a hard time seeing the Pohlads pull the trigger, though, which frustrates me.

gunnarthor
04-08-2012, 01:11 PM
He's won crappy divisions and has embarrassed himself and the team in the playoffs. "Very good manager" might be a little generous.

No, it's not. And, more importantly, the front office understands that.

Terry Tiffee
04-08-2012, 01:15 PM
Grow up? LOL, just trying to have intelligent Twins conversation... You can partake at any time.

Kneelb4zerg
04-08-2012, 01:54 PM
Grow up? LOL, just trying to have intelligent Twins conversation... You can partake at any time.
OK genius, tell me how changing managers will make one damn bit of difference. Tony LaRussa combined with the ghosts of Connie Mack and Earl Weaver can't make a bad team good.

Billy Bremner
04-08-2012, 01:55 PM
48 hours ago I would have thought that Gardy was safe for as long as he wanted. But now I'm wondering. It's a nebulous answer, but it depends how the team looks as much as the results. If they look ugly, you never know. Things could go south much faster than I would have thought.

Although I think it's less than 50/50 that this will happen, this is the most likely scenario, speaking possibilities-wise.

VodkaDave
04-08-2012, 02:09 PM
Sweet thread. Is this your first year watching baseball or something?

Montecore
04-08-2012, 03:02 PM
Be real nice to see them get rid of him, now, after this stirring nearly no-hit loss. Whatever managerial intangibles spur players on - he lost a long time ago. He should have gotten the ax six years ago. He's a very stupid man, and if they do start off 0-10 - the pressure will build and all the Gardy antics in the world won't save him. They need new blood at the helm, and in the front office. It's gotta happen, or the franchise will lose its value appreciably.

Highabove
04-08-2012, 03:04 PM
I think the Twins Organization starting with the Owner, is the one that is on the hot seat.

nova_twins
04-08-2012, 03:05 PM
Managers start getting heat early in the season all the time. They generally shouldn't, but it does happen. One series is nothing but a bad April could turn it into a legitimate issue.

I personally don't think it really matters, but many in the media and fan base think otherwise.

twinstalker
04-08-2012, 03:36 PM
This isn't a Gardenhire-only problem, we're just lucky enough to have a consistently horrible manager who, when he finally has bad teams, leaves us with no delusions as to whether the Twins might actually be good. Thank you, Ron, you make everything crystal clear.

Terry Tiffee
04-08-2012, 04:23 PM
Sweet thread. Is this your first year watching baseball or something?

Heaven forbid anyone demands some accountability around here... Keep making wise ass comments without adding anything into the thread.

twinstalker
04-08-2012, 04:31 PM
Be real nice to see them get rid of him, now, after this stirring nearly no-hit loss. Whatever managerial intangibles spur players on - he lost a long time ago. He should have gotten the ax six years ago. He's a very stupid man, and if they do start off 0-10 - the pressure will build and all the Gardy antics in the world won't save him. They need new blood at the helm, and in the front office. It's gotta happen, or the franchise will lose its value appreciably.
I don't trust that the ownership has any clue as to how to go about doing the right thing. I basically agree with you, I just don't think it will help. And you should have written this Friday morning, because declaring the sky is falling after three losses is both easy and non-credible. Again, not that I disagree with you.

Terry Tiffee
04-08-2012, 04:32 PM
I'd hate to move on from Gardy only to replace him with someone like Ullger... If you fire Gardy, you need new blood to come in.

Boom Boom
04-08-2012, 04:51 PM
Consider the circumstances of the Bill Smith firing - they fire their GM and replace him with the guy who was GM before and had been in Smith's ear on every single move he made. Then they rehire Smith as an adviser. Even when the Twins did eventually fire someone, they did it in a half-hearted kind of way. I truly believe that on any other team Gardy would already be on the hot seat, but with the Twins, the only one who can make Gardy not the manager anymore is Gardy himself.

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 05:50 PM
With another 90 loss season. Gardy will be respectfully let go with a very pleasent news conference. Everyone will say how much they enjoyed working together. Tears will be shed and a new manager with a new direction will be in place for next year. Gardy will get a job if he wants managing a different team almost immediately and Rick Anderson will follow him. The Mets would be my first guess.

Land Of 10,000 Beasts
04-08-2012, 06:08 PM
The Twins have a lack of talent. That isn't Gardy's fault. Half of our team belongs in Rochester. If we have success this season, it will be because of team chemistry and great coaching, which I think Gardy can provide.

ashburyjohn
04-08-2012, 06:18 PM
The Twins have a lack of talent. That isn't Gardy's fault. Half of our team belongs in Rochester.

Then Gardy should do great if he's sent down there too. :)

roger
04-08-2012, 07:21 PM
48 hours ago I would have thought that Gardy was safe for as long as he wanted. But now I'm wondering. It's a nebulous answer, but it depends how the team looks as much as the results. If they look ugly, you never know. Things could go south much faster than I would have thought.

John, I believe if this team has another 99 loss season, we won't have to worry about Gardy. He will retire either towards the end of this season or after the season. This type of losing gets to him and he will exit without being fired.

roger
04-08-2012, 07:22 PM
I'd hate to move on from Gardy only to replace him with someone like Ullger... If you fire Gardy, you need new blood to come in.

I love the new guy in Rochester. Now they are playing small ball!

roger
04-08-2012, 07:27 PM
Consider the circumstances of the Bill Smith firing - they fire their GM and replace him with the guy who was GM before and had been in Smith's ear on every single move he made. Then they rehire Smith as an adviser. Even when the Twins did eventually fire someone, they did it in a half-hearted kind of way. I truly believe that on any other team Gardy would already be on the hot seat, but with the Twins, the only one who can make Gardy not the manager anymore is Gardy himself.

If you think Mr. Ryan was in Bill Smith's ear on every move, you don't know Terry Ryan. Out of respect to Bill Smith, he would only provide advice when asked and clearly stay out of the way. As for keeping Bill Smith, that was also an excellent decision. Smith has very little if anything to do with baseball operations. He is back doing things for the organization which he is very good at. Things like working with Lee County on the plans to renovate/upgrade Hammond Stadium. Those are the business type of things Smith will do a very good job at. I respect the organization for, 1) knowing Mr. Smith was the wrong choice for G.M.; 2) Bringing back an experienced G.M. who was as good as any; and 3) keeping Mr. Smith and reassigning him to something he is good at.

powrwrap
04-08-2012, 07:56 PM
I'm not trying to be one of those fans that overreacts over 2 games, [..] and the fact that the wheels are starting to come off

Nope, not overreacting at all.


I like Gardy, but it almost seems like his act is starting to wear thin, and sometimes change is a good thing.


It's going to take something unusual for the Pohlad's to abandon Gardenhire. A rift between Mauer and Gardenhire perhaps. Or open disobedience to Gardy. Lack of hustle. These sorts of things might fall under your description of Gardy's act starting to wear thin.

Let's face it, this team will be lucky to win 75 games, I'm pretty sure the Pohlad's know it so they can't put the blame on Gardenhire.

gunnarthor
04-08-2012, 08:22 PM
If you think Mr. Ryan was in Bill Smith's ear on every move, you don't know Terry Ryan. Out of respect to Bill Smith, he would only provide advice when asked and clearly stay out of the way. As for keeping Bill Smith, that was also an excellent decision. Smith has very little if anything to do with baseball operations. He is back doing things for the organization which he is very good at. Things like working with Lee County on the plans to renovate/upgrade Hammond Stadium. Those are the business type of things Smith will do a very good job at. I respect the organization for, 1) knowing Mr. Smith was the wrong choice for G.M.; 2) Bringing back an experienced G.M. who was as good as any; and 3) keeping Mr. Smith and reassigning him to something he is good at.

Well said, Roger.

twinsnorth49
04-08-2012, 09:16 PM
Heaven forbid anyone demands some accountability around here... Keep making wise ass comments without adding anything into the thread.

What exactly have you added, except some insistent notion that changing managers is the cure to this teams ills? How about you be accountable,what would you or any other prospective manager do to make this team better?

Gardy has had his fair share of playoff failure but he keeps bringing the horse to water, at some point the players have to be the one's drinking. As far as this weekend went, he put three different lineups out there and none but a few executed in any way, I don't think he put them in a position to fail, they didn't play the way they are expected to play and no manager can do much about that.

twinswon1991
04-08-2012, 09:37 PM
HE should be fired NOW before he runs off any more decent players like he did with Papi, Garza, Delmon, Hardy, so on and so on. He will play you only if you are NICE and are 5'2" and scrappy (Punto/Butera/Carroll).

After another 99+ loss season it is best to start over with new players, new coaches and a GM that knows how to evaluate players.

VodkaDave
04-08-2012, 09:43 PM
HE should be fired NOW before he runs off any more decent players like he did with Papi, Garza, Delmon, Hardy, so on and so on. He will play you only if you are NICE and are 5'2" and scrappy (Punto/Butera/Carroll).

After another 99+ loss season it is best to start over with new players, new coaches and a GM that knows how to evaluate players.
He didn't run off Ortiz, Garza or Hardy... he has said repeadtly how he would have preferred that they would have kept Garza and Bartlett. Yeah, he obviously didn't like Delmon after the whole "I don't want to play today because its cold outside" but to be fair, Delmon was going to be DFA'ed after the season either way. The guy was just a massive dissapointment sans 2010 his whole time here.

whydidnt
04-08-2012, 10:17 PM
Consider the circumstances of the Bill Smith firing - they fire their GM and replace him with the guy who was GM before and had been in Smith's ear on every single move he made. Then they rehire Smith as an adviser. Even when the Twins did eventually fire someone, they did it in a half-hearted kind of way. I truly believe that on any other team Gardy would already be on the hot seat, but with the Twins, the only one who can make Gardy not the manager anymore is Gardy himself.
I think this is a pretty accurate statement. Why fire the GM only to replace him with his top "adviser"? Francona won 2 world series, had his team in the playoffs as frequently as Gardenhire, managed in a much tougher division and got fired after his team had one bad month. Yes, managing in a huge market like Boston gives him built in advantages, but when you say on any other team he'd be on the hot seat I can't argue. I just would argue that being in the hot-seat doesn't mean you should be fired. I think it does mean that it's time for the media to stop perpetuating the notion that Gardenhire is immune to his team performing poorly and start putting him on the hot seat and forcing him to make tough, good decisions.

John Bonnes
04-08-2012, 10:34 PM
I've deleted a few personal attacks already on this thread. There are a few more that I should probably go after, but there's enough out here that it's going to be easier to just start banning users. If you want to argue against someone's point, you should be able do so without "fans like you" or "you don't do this" or "you don't do that." If you see posts like this report them, don't reply in kind. Thanks.

peterb18
04-08-2012, 10:49 PM
This problem is deeper than Gardy. He is just part of a whole organization that needs revamping. It goes to philosophy -- the front office--the Pohlads with an unwillingness to step up to the plate and sign quality free agents. When the strength of your farm system is in the lower minors-you then do like the Cardinals and sign what your team needs to contend.
I listened to the baseball network on XM yesterday and a guy from Iowa called in asked about the Twins. Casey Stern said that the Twins are an organization that he can't understand. He said that most organizations when they almost get to the top try to add pieces to go to the next level. But, the Twins have taken the other approach and are dismantling the team. You would have to assume that the Pohalds have told Ryan to cut payroll. Again, this organization needs a transformation in philospphy!

gunnarthor
04-08-2012, 11:13 PM
This problem is deeper than Gardy. He is just part of a whole organization that needs revamping. It goes to philosophy -- the front office--the Pohlads with an unwillingness to step up to the plate and sign quality free agents. When the strength of your farm system is in the lower minors-you then do like the Cardinals and sign what your team needs to contend.
I listened to the baseball network on XM yesterday and a guy from Iowa called in asked about the Twins. Casey Stern said that the Twins are an organization that he can't understand. He said that most organizations when they almost get to the top try to add pieces to go to the next level. But, the Twins have taken the other approach and are dismantling the team. You would have to assume that the Pohalds have told Ryan to cut payroll. Again, this organization needs a transformation in philospphy!

I'm not quite sure what you're getting at. Back in the small market days, the Twins did let talent walk out and didn't add much payroll when it seemed they were close and that annoyed a lot of people. But the last few years payroll wasn't really the problem - we took on salary and made some nice free agent signings that helped immensely in 2010. Now that we're back to rebuilding mode, signing big free agents doesn't make sense.

TwinsFanLV
04-08-2012, 11:34 PM
The Twins have a lack of talent. That isn't Gardy's fault. Half of our team belongs in Rochester. If we have success this season, it will be because of team chemistry and great coaching, which I think Gardy can provide.


Agree that the 2011 and 2012 Twins are not talented, but what about the 2006 Twins team, which had a Cy Young Winner, a batting title and an MVP, but failed to win a playoff game? Gardenhire does NOT get the most from his players. Try somebody else.

Montecore
04-08-2012, 11:35 PM
I don't trust that the ownership has any clue as to how to go about doing the right thing. I basically agree with you, I just don't think it will help. And you should have written this Friday morning, because declaring the sky is falling after three losses is both easy and non-credible. Again, not that I disagree with you.

Did express these sentiments before Friday. Hollering about jettisoning him to Pluto last year on some other blog. And, the year before that. Ownership is just alienating the fan base by keeping him on.

gunnarthor
04-09-2012, 12:31 AM
Agree that the 2011 and 2012 Twins are not talented, but what about the 2006 Twins team, which had a Cy Young Winner, a batting title and an MVP, but failed to win a playoff game? Gardenhire does NOT get the most from his players. Try somebody else.

Using a 3 game sample isn't particularly fair. Santana pitched well in game 1, Morneau was good all series, Mauer struggled. I think it's more indicative of the manager's skill that he took a team that had lost Liriano and was 10.5 back on Aug 7 and won the central on the last day of the season.

I think if you want to make claims like "he does NOT get the most from his players" you should be able to point out players that have left the Twins and gotten better (and you should also, if that's how you're judging this, note the players that have come here and become better players). And, of course, you'd have to compare that with how a normal manager does in that, as well.

peterb18
04-09-2012, 07:19 AM
Gunnarthor--The point is: The Twins are not a small market team. They are a team that doesn't have to go through the rebuilding mode the way they did in the past. They are in a financial position to acquire quality free agents. Also, they could have kept Kubel, Cuddyer, and Nathan-signed a few pitchers and then wait until the young guys are ready. I don't know if you listen to baseball on XM with Kevin Kennedy, Casey Stern, Jim Douquette(sp) plus other baseball analyists? But, most independent experts predict another season like last year. In other words, the rebuilding could be done in another way without a complete dismantling of the team. The results will show at the gate by the middle of the season.

spideyo
04-09-2012, 07:52 AM
Are these the same analysts that picked them to win the division last year?

luckylager
04-09-2012, 08:03 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TDqvD34hEA

We're only three games in, fellas. Cheer up. Send positive energy to the Twin's bats.

Gernzy
04-09-2012, 08:08 AM
The Twins are normally pretty generous when it comes to their managers. TK stayed thoughout the entire 90's cellar run. I don't see this year as make or break for Gardy. If this continues though, then who knows.

VodkaDave
04-09-2012, 08:37 AM
Gunnarthor--The point is: The Twins are not a small market team. They are a team that doesn't have to go through the rebuilding mode the way they did in the past. They are in a financial position to acquire quality free agents. Also, they could have kept Kubel, Cuddyer, and Nathan-signed a few pitchers and then wait until the young guys are ready. I don't know if you listen to baseball on XM with Kevin Kennedy, Casey Stern, Jim Douquette(sp) plus other baseball analyists? But, most independent experts predict another season like last year. In other words, the rebuilding could be done in another way without a complete dismantling of the team. The results will show at the gate by the middle of the season.

They could not have kept Kubel, Cuddyer and Nathan, payroll had to come down...

sotafan
04-09-2012, 09:02 AM
I truly hope that is the case. We need new blood and brains in this club. We need people that take risks and know how to build a winner.

gunnarthor
04-09-2012, 09:25 AM
Gunnarthor--The point is: The Twins are not a small market team. They are a team that doesn't have to go through the rebuilding mode the way they did in the past. They are in a financial position to acquire quality free agents. Also, they could have kept Kubel, Cuddyer, and Nathan-signed a few pitchers and then wait until the young guys are ready. I don't know if you listen to baseball on XM with Kevin Kennedy, Casey Stern, Jim Douquette(sp) plus other baseball analyists? But, most independent experts predict another season like last year. In other words, the rebuilding could be done in another way without a complete dismantling of the team. The results will show at the gate by the middle of the season.

I agree we aren't a small market team anymore and I think the team was set up this year so that they could add salary if Morneau/Mauer were both healthy. But I don't think they were in a position to pay 15/yr or more for the quality free agents - Wilson, Pujols, Yu, Fielder, etc. They added a Cuddy-like hitter in Willingham (I think a slightly inferior one but others think superior). I don't think there was much they could do in free agency to help this team much. But I do agree with any general sentiment that the Pohlad's could have let us have a higher payroll. I think that's why Smith was fired, he wanted a payroll around 113 again. But that's just my assumption.

whydidnt
04-09-2012, 10:58 AM
They could not have kept Kubel, Cuddyer and Nathan, payroll had to come down...
Why did Payoll have to come down? There was no logical reason to reduce payroll. Revenue was up to 230 million last year and we still haven't heard what they were adding from the new local TV contract. Team has historically spent 50+% of revenue on payroll. This year they decide to spend significantly less, and you think this had to be? Seems to me the owners were setting the team up to fail.

USAFChief
04-09-2012, 11:02 AM
I am generally a Gardy fan and I don't think most of this would change much, if at all, with a new manager. That said, at some point you almost HAVE to try something different, no?

I think the blame for the Twins current situation falls largely on Bill Smith, partly on ownership, and partly on bad luck. Smith was beyond horrible as a GM, draining talent from this organization through one horrible decision after another. Ownership seems to me to value guaranteed yearly profits above all else. And in truth, they've been unlucky with health for a couple years now.

StormJH1
04-09-2012, 11:12 AM
48 hours ago I would have thought that Gardy was safe for as long as he wanted. But now I'm wondering. It's a nebulous answer, but it depends how the team looks as much as the results. If they look ugly, you never know. Things could go south much faster than I would have thought.
If this on-pace for a 100-loss season, as hard as it is to believe, I'd have to agree with John. And the irony of it is that there's nothing Gardy can really do, is there? Gardy has plenty of faults, and I'm sure we'll point them out real-time all year. But this roster is severely deficient in many ways, especially pitching, and we all knew it coming into the year. Gardy's in a situation where there are guys he's going to have to keep penciling in and just hope for the best. Mauer's a guy like that, obviously, but even when Mauer is "bad", he usually can perform at a better than average level for a catcher. Pavano scares the hell out of me, and I shudder to think of what value we could have gotten for Liriano after 2010, because that guy is never going be consistent enough to be a front-line starter.

The odds are certainly against a mid-season firing, but this will be one ugly summer if we're well below .500 by mid-August again. It could happen. The Twins definitely need a culture change, but a lot of the nitpicky things I don't like about Gardenhire and the core of this team aren't significant enough to explain performance THIS bad.

StormJH1
04-09-2012, 11:26 AM
Why did Payoll have to come down? There was no logical reason to reduce payroll. Revenue was up to 230 million last year and we still haven't heard what they were adding from the new local TV contract. Team has historically spent 50+% of revenue on payroll. This year they decide to spend significantly less, and you think this had to be? Seems to me the owners were setting the team up to fail.
While you are right from a business standpoint that payroll could have been increased, the problem isn't that we "only" have $100 million to work with...it's the composition of the roster. That Mauer and Morneau's struggles have eaten up a big chunk of that is well documented. But the real problem is the farm system, or lack thereof. Sano, Arcia, and a few others give hope for the future, but literally nothing of significant long-term value has come up since Liriano. And when team after team succeeds in the playoffs with a budgets very close to what the Twins now have, it's often because their overall salary budget is being deflated by young players who haven't gotten paid yet.

You CAN succeed with Mauer and Morneau making all that money, even if Mauer and Morneau are missing time with injury, but it would need to be supplemented with cheap young talent performing at a Joey Votto or Matt Cain level BEFORE those guys have put in enough time to warrant a long-term deal.

Simply put, the Twins felt that they had a superior philosophy and enough core players that they could draft "safe" year after year, and they were wrong. Now, our entire rotation has virtually zero power arms, and the only guys that move through the ranks are average prospects like Valencia, or guys with extremely limited ceilings, such as Revere. (Note: Span was nearly an exception to this rule, but he was actually drafted way back in '02 and withheld until he was "over-ripe"...plus his performance/injury problems the past few years question whether he will actually be an above-average player going forward)

My point is, I don't think that another 10 - 15 million on top of what we already have makes this a SIGNIFICANTLY better team if that money is just spent through free agency. Yes, a Puljos or Fielder signing would have made an impact, but that was never going to happen for a number of reasons, and those guys cost $20 million + per year. They could have pursued a Cliff Lee or C.J. Wilson (and yes, I really wish we had something resembling an "ace"), but what about the other four starts? And the anemic defense and hitting? I think management saw the writing on the wall, knew that they couldn't "spend their way to .500" this season, and recognized that luck and good health with several key players were going to make a bigger difference this year than anyone they could have reasonably tried to acquire.

Curt
04-09-2012, 12:14 PM
Does Gardenhire go on the proverbial hot seat?


When those above him are being held accountable and need a scapegoat. It is the way of the world.

Yoshii
04-09-2012, 12:19 PM
people are so mad today.

roger
04-09-2012, 12:33 PM
Why did Payoll have to come down? There was no logical reason to reduce payroll. Revenue was up to 230 million last year and we still haven't heard what they were adding from the new local TV contract. Team has historically spent 50+% of revenue on payroll. This year they decide to spend significantly less, and you think this had to be? Seems to me the owners were setting the team up to fail.

Two major differences this year. One, they no longer receive revenue sharing from the rest of the league. I don't know the exact numbers, but I believe it was in the $10-$15mm range. Two, they will be paying about $6mm more to sign draft picks. That is a reduction of net revenue greater than the $15mm reduction in opening day payrolls.

whydidnt
04-09-2012, 12:36 PM
My point is, I don't think that another 10 - 15 million on top of what we already have makes this a SIGNIFICANTLY better team if that money is just spent through free agency. Yes, a Puljos or Fielder signing would have made an impact, but that was never going to happen for a number of reasons, and those guys cost $20 million + per year. They could have pursued a Cliff Lee or C.J. Wilson (and yes, I really wish we had something resembling an "ace"), but what about the other four starts? And the anemic defense and hitting? I think management saw the writing on the wall, knew that they couldn't "spend their way to .500" this season, and recognized that luck and good health with several key players were going to make a bigger difference this year than anyone they could have reasonably tried to acquire.

I agree with the core of what you're saying, but I think if you look at the moves made last off season, if you have another 15 million to spend you can significantly improve the team. Don't forget the team spend another 10.75 million on Marquis, Carroll and Capps, plus another 1-2 million for the bums in our pen, meaning you would have had about 27 million to work with in the offseason. Instead of signing Marquis for 3 Million, you sign E.Jackson for 11 (+8), instead of Carroll for 3 Million, you sign Scutaro for 6 (+11), I'd go with Cordero over Capps and save 250k, that would leave me 5-6 (the guys they brought in like Burton, Gray, etc. cost something too) million to spend on the bullpen, for that I could have signed Coffey, Saito, Qualls and Rodney. Not saying all these guys would have signed here, or that you would have even wanted all of them, but the point is, we would have a legitimate SP, a decent offensive option at short and a bullpen that we could have some confidence in. The team would certainly be in a better position to compete for the AL central. Don't forget Fielder wasn't signed until late in the offseason, so if you're running the Twins, you don't see the Tigers as being that much better in your division.

It was a bad, short-sighted move to cut payroll this year.

Highabove
04-09-2012, 01:40 PM
This years Bullpen tells the story. The Twins were not willing to spend even a million dollars too upgrade the leagues worst Bullpen. Winning does take a back Seat to the Pohlad's profit.

MileHighTwinsFan
04-09-2012, 02:04 PM
I agree that internally the team's expectations are realistic and that the real goal is to prepare for the future, while doing their best to compete and put a good product on the field. If the team had spent $110 million again with the expectation that they could make a run at the Tigers, it might be a different story - but that is clearly not the case. The bigger question is whether Gardy wants to be the manager of a team that is rebuilding. If it is clear that the team is out of contention by July and the decision is made to sell off veterans and go with a youth movement, then Gardy will need to ask himself whether that is something he wants to be a part of.

Dunn
04-09-2012, 02:07 PM
I came out of this weekend thinking the exact same thing. It's not that I think Gardy is doing a terrible job, I just think that there is an air of complacency in the organization right now and a new infusion of blood (thank God the Sox snatched up Bobby V b/c that would have been devistating) might entice players to look at things differently. Additionally, a new voice could trigger some players to step it up and play harder. It's almost like bringing in a third opinion when things seem to be at a stalemate, as they look now.

CDog
04-09-2012, 02:28 PM
This years Bullpen tells the story. The Twins were not willing to spend even a million dollars too upgrade the leagues worst Bullpen. Winning does take a back Seat to the Pohlad's profit.

In what world outside "The Producers" or "Major League" have the wicked owners figured out that losing is the recipe for profits?

Steve Lein
04-09-2012, 02:31 PM
Ya, the Twins may not have the payroll of a "small market" team anymore, but they're not exactly "big market", or even close to being so, either. Take for instance, these facts:

- The Twins are 13th in Payroll this season - barely in the top half of baseball.
- They are spending less than half of what the #1 team does. They are NOT spending over half of what the #30 team (Padres) does. Some math: (Twins payroll) - (Padres payroll) = $39 MIL dollars. (Yankees payroll) - (Twins payroll) = $103 MIL dollars... You see what's wrong there?... "Top half of baseball" or "Top 10" or "$100 MIL" payroll is not some benchmark for being "big market" like some would like you to believe...
- A team like the Angels, armed with a very large new TV-deal, signed 2 free agents this offseason for roughly 4 times, and 12 times higher respectively, than the largest free agent contract the Twins have EVER handed out. Which, if you didn't know, happened this offseason as well. It was a deal for 3 years, 21 million total dollars, and the player's name is Josh Willingham.

Now, what about that tells you this team is now a "big market" one? "Big market" teams go out and get impact players from other teams through free agency or trades. When have the Twins done this? The answer is NEVER. The payroll rose because the group of players they had developed and found success with, finally got past their league minimum and arbitration years and were due significant raises, not because they went out and acquired elite talent from elsewhere.

The total payroll # may not exactly be "small market" and many will use Joe Mauer's contract as an example of why they are not, but they are still operated as a "small market" team when it comes to how they build the roster, and that's exactly the main difference one should consider in this argument -> Not the total $ amounts spent, but on WHO and HOW. That tells you all you need to know about "Big" vs. "Small" markets.

nokomismod
04-09-2012, 02:58 PM
Isn't it okay for the team to step back and reload/rebuild. Why retain Kubel, Cuddyer, and Nathan when we all saw that didn't work last year. Let's have some patience. Most of us here were fans back in the mid 90's right? I'm not looking for a 10 year drought in winning, but I don't want a band aid fix or knee jerk reaction either.

Riverbrian
04-09-2012, 04:52 PM
Ya, the Twins may not have the payroll of a "small market" team anymore, but they're not exactly "big market", or even close to being so, either. Take for instance, these facts:

- The Twins are 13th in Payroll this season - barely in the top half of baseball.
- They are spending less than half of what the #1 team does. They are NOT spending over half of what the #30 team (Padres) does. Some math: (Twins payroll) - (Padres payroll) = $39 MIL dollars. (Yankees payroll) - (Twins payroll) = $103 MIL dollars... You see what's wrong there?... "Top half of baseball" or "Top 10" or "$100 MIL" payroll is not some benchmark for being "big market" like some would like you to believe...
- A team like the Angels, armed with a very large new TV-deal, signed 2 free agents this offseason for roughly 4 times, and 12 times higher respectively, than the largest free agent contract the Twins have EVER handed out. Which, if you didn't know, happened this offseason as well. It was a deal for 3 years, 21 million total dollars, and the player's name is Josh Willingham.

Now, what about that tells you this team is now a "big market" one? "Big market" teams go out and get impact players from other teams through free agency or trades. When have the Twins done this? The answer is NEVER. The payroll rose because the group of players they had developed and found success with, finally got past their league minimum and arbitration years and were due significant raises, not because they went out and acquired elite talent from elsewhere.

The total payroll # may not exactly be "small market" and many will use Joe Mauer's contract as an example of why they are not, but they are still operated as a "small market" team when it comes to how they build the roster, and that's exactly the main difference one should consider in this argument -> Not the total $ amounts spent, but on WHO and HOW. That tells you all you need to know about "Big" vs. "Small" markets.

Nice Job on this post... I agree. That leads to the inevetible conclusion... The Inevetible rebuild.

One of the most disapointing developments from the past 5 years has been the fall of the farm system. It use to be the pride of baseball and now it's not. The Farm system has to be rebuilt and it has to start very soon or the return to a pennent chasing type team will be delayed. The Twins will have to strongly consider trading whichever player can bring young talent in return if they can't turn things around. If they don't think about the rebuild soon... It will be years of putting in spare parts to surround the M&M boys before finally starting to rebuild because it's inevitable.

Morneau isn't an attractive trade option at this point with his health issues and salary.

It's questionable if Mauer is a great option with his health issues and high salary and no trade clause but someone may want Joe at the trade deadline.

Denard Span could fetch a little but not a lot.

The Twins have very little pitching to move of significant value. Someone like Kyle Gibson could come back strong and then be moved for a couple of arms but that would take a couple of years of proving that he's an ace.

You can't trade someone like Sano since that's the type of player you are looking to acquire.

I can't tell you how disapointed I am... Considering the value that we have let get away for nothing and how it set the Twins program back.

Santana turned into Gomez and 3 other guys. The 3 other guys are nothing and Gomez Turned into Hardy and Hardy was traded for nothing.
Garza and Bartlett turned into Delmon and 2 other guys. The 2 other guys are nothing and Delmon was traded for Nothing. Flat out bad GM'ing during this time period.

Meanwhile the Rays were able to turn Garza into a boatlaod of prospects from the Cubs and they are competing in the AL East at half the salary and have AAA guys ready to fill in should someone fall.

I hate to say it... The best course of action for the Twins may be to get as young as they can... quickly... and then lose badly for a few years and draft college age players and draft very very well.

Be bad for a couple of years and get ready for the arrival of Sano, Hicks, Arcia and Rosario. Take player salary off the books and re-invest that salary into the scouting department. Make sure that every base is covered in the scouting department.

Terry Ryan has a very difficult job ahead of him. This year will probably be the canary in the coalmine. If the canary dies... It should signal a youth movement and it could start at the trade deadline. If the canary dies and they don't go to a youth movement... Just settle in your chair and watch the mediocrity fill the room from floor to ceiling until you decide that you just can't live here anymore.

powrwrap
04-09-2012, 05:04 PM
Big market, small market, yadda, yadda, yadda... What is the definition of market size? Let me offer a definition. It's whatever size your media market happens to be. Specifically the Nielsen Media Research rankings of the Designated Market Area. The Yankees are in the #1 media market in the U.S. Not coincidentally they have the #1 payroll. Los Angeles is #2, then Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, S.F., Boston, Atlanta...hey, those market sizes pretty much track payroll sizes. The Twin Cities are ranked #15.

Riverbrian
04-09-2012, 05:27 PM
Big market, small market, yadda, yadda, yadda... What is the definition of market size? Let me offer a definition. It's whatever size your media market happens to be. Specifically the Nielsen Media Research rankings of the Designated Market Area. The Yankees are in the #1 media market in the U.S. Not coincidentally they have the #1 payroll. Los Angeles is #2, then Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, S.F., Boston, Atlanta...hey, those market sizes pretty much track payroll sizes. The Twin Cities are ranked #15.

Not Entirely True... Most markets get additional large media markets that inflate the equation.

For example... Seattle isn't just Seattle... It's also Portland and all of Washington State and Oregon State and the Majority of the Northwest including Idaho and the Potato's that call that state home.

Atlanta isn't just Atlanta... It's the South. Charlotte NC, All of South Carolina, Alabama with Birmingham and Montgomery and Mobile. Mississippi is also Braves Country plus Nashville.


Dallas and Houston fight over markets like San Antonio and Austin.

Boston isn't just Boston, It's Maine, NH, VT, RI and Some of CT.

Michigan gets Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and all of well populated Michigan.

Colorado gets a large portion of the Rockies into South Dakota and Down to New Mexico.

The Cardinals have Memphis and Little Rock

The Twins... They get Duluth and Fosston. That's why the Twins are Small Market and the new stadium will not change that.

They can talk about expansion all they want. The Truth is that the owners will not be able to get out of each other's way to let that happen.

If you want to expand in Portland... The Seattle Owners will be very concerned about losing the Portland Market and be against it.

Expand to Orlando... Tampa Bay and Miami will put up a stink.

Expand to New Jersey or the Bronx...The Yankees and Mets will fight you tooth and nail.

You can't look at the media market ranking and say done deal. The Truth is... The Definition of a small market is a smaller metro and lack of metro surrounding it. If you a big city in the middle of pasture. You are a small market team. The Twins are that exactly.

Highabove
04-09-2012, 05:42 PM
The Twins have Big Market Ticket prices!!

WJ
04-10-2012, 12:16 AM
Ryan won't fire Gardenhire and the Pohlads don't care enough about what goes on on the field to step in and do it themselves. I don't think he'll quit because that means his old Mets buddies will also be out of their jobs. I don't blame this 0-4 start on Gardenhire but I would fire him just to bitch slap the team into consciousness. His managerial skills are overrated. His motivational skills have yielded results that are there for everyone to see. He's been with one team a long time but he's far from a household name outside of baseball insiders. Nobody has asked him to host the Baseball Bunch like Tommy Lasorda.

Shane Wahl
04-10-2012, 12:54 AM
The players are performing terribly so far. End of story.

StormJH1
04-10-2012, 06:55 AM
Not Entirely True... Most markets get additional large media markets that inflate the equation.

The Twins... They get Duluth and Fosston. That's why the Twins are Small Market and the new stadium will not change that.

You can't look at the media market ranking and say done deal. The Truth is... The Definition of a small market is a smaller metro and lack of metro surrounding it. If you a big city in the middle of pasture. You are a small market team. The Twins are that exactly.

The guy from Grand Forks is telling us that the Twins don't have any fans in areas outside of the metro?! I think you have it exactly backwards. While the "North Country" isn't a particularly populated area, you have to go pretty far in any direction to run into another city with an MLB team. By contrast, states like Florida, NY, TX, and California have multiple teams. And if you live somewhere like Detroit, drive one hour south and you're in Ohio, and most people are Indians fans. The Twins don't have another centralized fan base in a "major city", but they are followed by a decent number of people in the Dakotas, Iowa, and even western Wisconsin. And regardless of that entire argument, they still spent $100 million on players this year, which is plenty of money to compete. They just haven't spent the money WELL.

JB_Iowa
04-10-2012, 09:00 AM
I think Phil Mackey reported that the "new" TV deal is worth about $29 million/year to the Twins. Contrast that with the Angels (reportedly about $150 million/year) and the Rangers ($80 million/year) and with other teams like the Dodgers (due for a new deal soon) and the Phillies (expecting a huge deal in 2016) and of course, the Yankees and their YES network (where they are undoubtedly printing money).

Until Mackey's column, I thought the Twins were up for a new deal at the end of 2012 -- not knowing that it had already been renegotiated and extended. Certainly the new contract wasn't a "splash" in the media (although it probably was the reason for FSN exclusivity).

Think about it -- a $50 million/year in difference between the Rangers and the Twins. It would take a lot of tickets and merchandise sales to make that up.

"Small" market or "Big" market (or for that matter "Medium" market) are merely a matter of semantics. The difference in dollars is real. Could the Twins afford to raise their payroll? Undoubtedly. Did it make sense going into this year given the state of Mauer & Morneau & Span? Much more debatable.

I thoroughly agree that the Twins haven't spent their money well. And, yes, I believe that they have been -- and continue to be -- too complacent. As I posted repeatedly last year (elsewhere), this franchise is stagnant. They may have made a few changes in player personnel over the winter but aside from firing a couple of coaches in Rochester and the "back to the future" move of reinstalling Ryan, the management and coaching staff (on-field and in the office) never seems to change. They need an infusion of new energy and new ideas -- or a real return to fundamentals (instead of just giving it lip service).

Fanatic Jack
04-10-2012, 09:20 AM
We have heard for years that Gardenhire does more with less. The only problem is nobody is saying that anymore. Paul Molitor or Jake Mauer would sell tickets and give fans hope for the future. Gardy is so stubborn he won't even make a coaching change like Vavra or Scott Ulger (who has been given every job except bat boy) with the team. Change is needed and soon. NO Way Gardy makes it through season.

luckylager
04-10-2012, 09:27 AM
We have heard for years that Gardenhire does more with less. The only problem is nobody is saying that anymore. Paul Molitor or Jake Mauer would sell tickets and give fans hope for the future. Gardy is so stubborn he won't even make a coaching change like Vavra or Scott Ulger (who has been given every job except bat boy) with the team. Change is needed and soon. NO Way Gardy makes it through season.

What evidence is there that Paul Molitor or Jake Mauer would do any better job with the current roster? Nobody buys tickets to watch the manager.

zenser
04-10-2012, 09:43 AM
I know we are 4 games into the season. I think Gardy has done an OK job. I personally think Vavra needs to go. I my opinion, players have regressed under him. So far this season, Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel, and CJ Wilson have pretty much shut down the offense. That certainly doesn't look like a bunch of Cy Youngs to me. What is going to happen when we see Verlander, Weaver, Haren, Price, Lester, Sabathia? I can't count how many slow rollers to SS or 2B have been hit this year. How many hard hit balls were there at the home opener (Willingham's homer, Willingham's long foul ball, Doumits single, and Mauer's single)? The offense is just flat out pathetic. When you have hit into more double plays then runs scored, that is saying something.

I do think it is about time for a new regime. Gardy, Anderson, Vavra, Liddle, Ulger, not all of them deserve the boot but it is time for a new direction, new approach at the plate, and new philosophy on the mound.

Fanatic Jack
04-10-2012, 09:49 AM
Luckylager,

You are so wrong. How many people over the years have said they want Gardy gone. Pretty much anybody at this point would bring fans in. ANYBODY!!!

gunnarthor
04-10-2012, 09:58 AM
What evidence is there that Paul Molitor or Jake Mauer would do any better job with the current roster? Nobody buys tickets to watch the manager.

Exactly right.

TwinsFan01
04-10-2012, 10:00 AM
I'm not sure any new manager would bring more fans in - at least not directly. BUT a new manager could breathe some new life into this club - they're as stale as they were last Sept. and that needs to change or Target Field will be empty.

They need someone to boost morale and get this squad to expect a little more of themselves. I thought the Twins let go of guys like Young, Thome, Cuddyer, Kubel & Nathan because they're 'rebuilding'...well, IMO that rebuilding needs to start at the top. The same old attitudes & philosophies aren't going to magically work on a new crop of players.

Steve Lein
04-10-2012, 10:01 AM
Also, the "fall" of the farm system is very easy to diagnose. In the past 10 years, the Twins have only had 1 draft pick that was above slot 20 (was Aaron Hicks at #14), and they've also been very against drafting elite players that fell due to signability concerns, or in other words, who wanted a lot of money to keep them from their college commitments. As an example, the Pirates drafted OF Josh Bell last year in the 2nd round, and then shelled out $5 MIL to sign him (that's top 5 pick money). If you're not picking in the Top 10 for that long of a period, are unwilling to go significantly over slot $ amounts (which is no longer a concern with the new CBA), and you have failed in using your best assets (Santana, etc...) to restock it, it should be pretty obvious that your farm system will suffer to churn out talent. But unfortunately, that farm system talent is what the Twins need to count on to be successful, and it's now fallen into a rebuild mode, which is a shame as we're in the middle of the last wave of talents prime (Mauer & Morneau). It won't be a quick rebuild for the Twins either, as they don't have that elite player that can be moved for a haul. No Ace looking for his first big free agent deal, no stud veteran hitter without concerns or an unmovable contract. There's only 2 trade pieces I see on this team that could bring back something worthwhile, but both also have questions that will stunt their value, they being Francisco Liriano and Denard Span. But even then, you're not exactly going to reload a farm system by moving those guys.

And this made me laugh:
The Twins have Big Market Ticket prices!

Um, have you SEEN what the Yankees charge?! -> http://mlb.mlb.com/nyy/ballpark/seating_pricing.jsp

spideyo
04-10-2012, 10:32 AM
The Twins "home region" is geographically one of the largest in baseball actually, stretching from eastern wisconsin all the way to eastern montana, and south down to Iowa (not sure where the kansas city/minnesota line is). It's not a very densely populated area though, and the ad rates in Fargo, Des Moines, Rapid City, St Cloud, Duluth, Rochester, Grand Forks, Mankato COMBINED is probably half what it is in NYC.

Jeff P
04-10-2012, 10:48 AM
Regarding the original question, I think it will probably take another season like last year before Gardy is on the hot seat and maybe another bad season next year before the Twins decide to do anything. This organization is loyal and is reluctant to make big changes, I think that is mostly good but there is a point when someone high up in the organization recognizes that changes are needed.

It is amazing how many areas fans are really frustrated with regarding the organization: manager, hitting coach, pitching coach, organizational philosophy on hitting and pitching, etc. Not saying fans are completely right but there are enough issues popping up that at least the team needs to reevaluate itself.

Jeff

Riverbrian
04-10-2012, 11:36 AM
The guy from Grand Forks is telling us that the Twins don't have any fans in areas outside of the metro?! I think you have it exactly backwards. While the "North Country" isn't a particularly populated area, you have to go pretty far in any direction to run into another city with an MLB team. By contrast, states like Florida, NY, TX, and California have multiple teams. And if you live somewhere like Detroit, drive one hour south and you're in Ohio, and most people are Indians fans. The Twins don't have another centralized fan base in a "major city", but they are followed by a decent number of people in the Dakotas, Iowa, and even western Wisconsin. And regardless of that entire argument, they still spent $100 million on players this year, which is plenty of money to compete. They just haven't spent the money WELL.

lol... I'm not sure if you are serious with this post or not. This topic is a little off the topic and should probably have it's own thread but regardless... Some things to consider on the off topic.


Understanding Market sizes and demographics is what I kinda do for a living. You are correct that there are certain baseball markets that are penned in geographically and the Twins can roam free to the North and West for many miles.

You do realize that the states you list as having multiple teams also have the 4 highest state popluations. 37 Million in CA... 24 Million in TX. NY and FL are 19 million. That's why those states have multiple teams. Detroit does get a piece of Toledo a fairly nice sized city but there is a bunch of population in the state of Michigan. Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo, Saginaw. They don't need to branch out into Ohio to provide Television viewership.

In the Twins case... However, the population totals and hence the value of your TV contract in our additional markets are small #250+ Ranked TV markets like St. Cloud and Fargo and Grand Forks and unranked small communities. They do not add up to what other baseball teams get from markets like San Antonio, Austin, New Orleans, Memphis, Charlotte, Portland, Sacremento, Colorado Springs, Indianapolis, Columbus, Grand Rapids, Buffalo, Orlando, Tucson, Omaha, and Hartford and all of the Fosston sized town's that are also in the area of those bonus areas.

Here's a Wikipedia Map of the blackout areas. It shows how the entire country is carved up for Television Rights and gives you a pretty good idea how the Twins are cornered into primarily low population areas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MLB_Blackout_Areas.png

The Twins don't even get Rapid City and Duluth to themselves because they have to share them with the Rockies and Brewers.

Getting a change to this map would be near impossible because the owners will never let a population base go to another club because that effects the amount of money they get in their television negotiations.

Television revenue is only part of the revenue stream for Baseball teams. Target field has been great for the Twins and it does provide additional revenue that can be added to the Television Money and Attendence Figures and everything else.

As JB_Iowa pointed out. 29 Million in TV Revenue for the Twins compared to 80 Million for the Rangers is a 51 Million dollar desparity. The stadium is great for revenue but it doesn't remove our small market status. The only thing that will change that is a major population boom in Bemidji.

One thing that would help is if the Twins could get Iowa to themselves. It would be nice to have our AAA team in Des Moines instead of the Cubs to help build that fan base and the games on daily but the Cubs are probably going nowhere and the teams will not willingly walk away from a larger market.

Can the Twins spend more... Probably but for Owners to do that. There has to be some bang for the buck. The Twins lost 99 games last year.

If a strong core of players dot the roster and the team is a few pieces away... The Checkbook will come out again. At least I hope so.

StormJH1
04-10-2012, 02:48 PM
@Riverbrian - I will defer to your expertise in market demographics. My goal was not to be a troll or prove necessarily that the Twins are a "small market", "mid-sized market" or whatever. I don't think it matters. As JB_Iowa pointed out, there are so many other factors that determine cash flow, and when you get to the question of the ballclub's budget, ticket revenue and the personal wealth of the owners (and willingness to risk a loss on the product) are much more important factors than sheer availability of people that could potentially watch games on TV, buy merchandise, or pay for tickets.

My point was more to the effect that it doesn't matter. The Twins would not have cut $12 to $15 million off their budget if (a) they had performed significantly better than a 99-loss season; and (b) if spending the additional money would have made any significant difference in their 2012 outcome. All I am saying is that to the extent people assume that the extra money necessarily would have made this team better, and that's not the case. The 2007 Tigers went from an 88-win team to an 88-loss team in 2008 by INCREASING their payroll from $95 million to $137 million in one offseason. In any event, I think we arguing the same thing on that point...

Shane Wahl
04-10-2012, 05:09 PM
Interesting stuff in the last couple posts. I wonder what the total population is in those blackout areas. I have also thought about how having minor league teams within that area might certainly help that as well. Furthermore, that is atrocious that the Brewers invade Minnesota like that.

Riverbrian
04-10-2012, 05:55 PM
@Riverbrian - I will defer to your expertise in market demographics. My goal was not to be a troll or prove necessarily that the Twins are a "small market", "mid-sized market" or whatever. I don't think it matters. As JB_Iowa pointed out, there are so many other factors that determine cash flow, and when you get to the question of the ballclub's budget, ticket revenue and the personal wealth of the owners (and willingness to risk a loss on the product) are much more important factors than sheer availability of people that could potentially watch games on TV, buy merchandise, or pay for tickets.

My point was more to the effect that it doesn't matter. The Twins would not have cut $12 to $15 million off their budget if (a) they had performed significantly better than a 99-loss season; and (b) if spending the additional money would have made any significant difference in their 2012 outcome. All I am saying is that to the extent people assume that the extra money necessarily would have made this team better, and that's not the case. The 2007 Tigers went from an 88-win team to an 88-loss team in 2008 by INCREASING their payroll from $95 million to $137 million in one offseason. In any event, I think we arguing the same thing on that point...

That's Ok Storm we are probably talking in a couple different directions overall. This whole left turn in the thread came from an earlier post by "powrwrap" where he stated that you should just follow the Neilsen DMA rankings to determine who is large market and small market and I just went on to explain that it wasn't completely the case.

Which led to your post and then my post. There are many factors that determine a clubs cashflow and to a point it doesn't matter but in the end... In my opinion... Small Market teams can never truly catch up.

We have a new stadium... That gives us a nice revenue stream and it helped even the playing field a bit. Soon... Everyone will have one... Corporate Boxes... Amusement Parks... Upscale and Lowscale dining... Hotels attached... Parking revenue... The possibilities are endless... Some are happening and some will be happening in the future... If something brings in money to an organization... Everyone will want it and copy it.

When everyone gets their parks and maxes out the money streams... The money revenue difference in teams will be back to... Market Size... How much money you get in your TV contract which will be based on the population of your TV market. Right now we get 29 million and the Angels get 160 Million. That's a large difference.

My point is that the Twins are still a small market team. No matter how much they spend or how much revenue the stadium brings in.

Riverbrian
04-10-2012, 06:13 PM
Interesting stuff in the last couple posts. I wonder what the total population is in those blackout areas. I have also thought about how having minor league teams within that area might certainly help that as well. Furthermore, that is atrocious that the Brewers invade Minnesota like that.

I am too offended by the Brewers muscling into Twins Territory... It's probably pay back for our little push into Wisconsin.

I don't have any info to direct you to on the total population of the total population areas. However, some night... When you have nothing to do... You can do it by state and get a pretty idea... North Dakota plus South Dakota Plus Minnesota Equals...

This whole thing is why the Giants were not allowing Oakland to move to San Jose... This was the reason that the Orioles were against the Expo's moving to Washington. For anything like that to happen... Someone has to be compensated for the lost revenue. MLB had to basically tell the Orioles owner... Tough *&*&... Here's some money now shut up... Something like that will happen with the Giants as well.

This whole thing is why I doubt expansion will most likely not happen. The Owner will not be able to get out of each other's way.


When it comes to Des Moines... I'm not saying having a AAA club in Iowa would help turn Iowa into Twins Territory but it certainly wouldn't hurt if Sano had to spend a year in Des Moines playing AAA and Iowa Sano and Rosario and Hicks fans can get to know him and follow him forward. It would certainly help bring down travel costs a little but that isn't a huge factor.

The Key is to own the Television in Iowa. That way the next generation of Iowa baseball Fans are exposed to the Twins and the Twins only. Small chance of that happening sadly. Iowa is carved up between the Cubs, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Brewers and Cards. If it did. The Twins market size and Television revenue would almost double.

It's also why I doubted Carl Pohlad when he threatened to move the team to North Carolina before moving on to the contraction threat.

Riverbrian
04-10-2012, 06:23 PM
Here's a solution...

Talk the Pirates into moving their AAA team to Rochester. It's closer then Indianapolis and maybe that will help them expand into Western New York.
Talk the Cubs into moving their AAA team to Indianapolis. Indiana like Iowa is designated Cubs territory.
Then move the AAA Twins to Des Moines.

The only problem with that scenerio is getting everyone to say... OK... This Riverbrian knows what he's talking about... That never happens. ;-)

darin617
04-10-2012, 07:15 PM
If only Garza and Bartlett were still here we would have as close as an ace as we will ever get and a decent SS. Just wait until the month is over and hope it takes 2 hands to count the amount of wins the club has.

gunnarthor
04-11-2012, 09:36 AM
Souhan suggested in the strib today (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/146922415.html)that the Pohlad sons might not be as loyal as Carl was. "While I don't believe Terry Ryan would fire manager Ron Gardenhire, it would be foolish to think that the new Pohlads will be patient with the field staff if the losing continues. And what if this team implodes and Ryan refuses a Pohlad command to fire Gardenhire? Would Ryan suddenly remember the "interim" adjective in front of his title?"

While I don't think Gardy should be fired, it may be more of a possibility than I thought.

whydidnt
04-11-2012, 09:51 AM
Wow, I know the Strib's comments tend to run negative, but so far there isn't one comment disagreeing with Souhan's premise and the state of the Twins. A lot of, I think deserved, anger towards the Pohlads for cutting payroll this year there too. Like I've posted before if you cut payroll because of poor performance, it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. You'll always do worse and you'll always be cutting payroll. On a positive note, Baseball Prospectus shows the Twins still have a 1.1% chance of making the playoffs this year. To quote Jim Carey: "You mean there's a chance?!?!?"