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Nick Nelson
06-30-2013, 07:43 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1988-Mixed-Developments-For-Future-of-Twins-Rotation

howieramone
06-30-2013, 08:04 PM
IMO the next milestone in the rebuilding process, is Meyer and/or May making it to Target Field. It does underscore the need for Ryan to continue to accumulate top starting pitching prospects. I would be very surprised if Perkins doesn't net us the next one.

CK
06-30-2013, 09:39 PM
I liked him resting until they came out and said he was resting indefinitely. Ugh. Fingers crossed.

clutterheart
06-30-2013, 09:50 PM
The future of the rotation is in the CR, GCL and E-twon
Guys like Felix Jorge, Randy Rosario, Yorman Landa, Berrios, Stewart are going to be the future.
Gibson, Meyer, May are nice pitchers, but in my opinion, by the time the above guys get to AA, the Twins are going to be looking at a amazing future rotation.

Kwak
06-30-2013, 10:06 PM
It's nice to look at guys in the minors and project that they become solid (or better) SPs, but history shows most of these guys fail. Consider recent Twins pitchers that had substantial success in the minors--even at Rochester who floundered or even completely failed at the ML level.

Recall this preseason when people were guessing who would be in the rotation this year? Diamond was not only deemed a lock for this season, but for several years. Now? His future as a SP is in question. Things change. There are very good reasons why teams sign free agents to join their rotation.

howieramone
06-30-2013, 10:13 PM
The future of the rotation is in the CR, GCL and E-twon
Guys like Felix Jorge, Randy Rosario, Yorman Landa, Berrios, Stewart are going to be the future.
Gibson, Meyer, May are nice pitchers, but in my opinion, by the time the above guys get to AA, the Twins are going to be looking at a amazing future rotation.I hope you're right and I've read several of your articles, so I know you watch things much more closely than I do. That said, I find it hard to get excited about starting pitching prospects in the lower minors. I much prefer Ryan's approach of getting prospects with one or two+ years of experience from our friendly competitors.

johnnydakota
06-30-2013, 11:18 PM
just schedual his surgery now and hope hes back next spring...

jokin
07-01-2013, 12:15 AM
just schedual his surgery now and hope hes back next spring...

If it's a sticky shoulder surgery situation for Meyer, by the time they properly diagnose and schedule it, he probably would have little chance to be ready to pitch next spring.

But it could be even worse than that. Recent studies have been done that show that while around 85% of elbow surgeries end up in pitchers equaling or exceeding previous performance levels......for shoulders, it's less than 50%. This is very, very disconcerting news and the Twins extreme caution is well-justified. If things don't take a turn back to the positive, it's now getting too uncomfortably near the area wherein it's less than a coin flip that Meyer still projects to being the potential Ace pitcher we once all hoped for.

Now, more than ever, why didn't the Twins get John Lannan thrown into the deal, when the Nats were going to avoid arbitration and cut him anyway? At least they would have had a still-young (only 28) and proven innings-eater to show for the "blockbuster" trade.

chuchadoro
07-01-2013, 08:56 AM
Who is a good comp for Gibson? I always thought he had a Brandon Webb-type of ceiling. Webb's sinker was absolutely devastating but Gibson throws a little harder than he did. I don't expect Gibson to win a Cy Young but I think some were underselling him a bit.

Thegrin
07-01-2013, 10:12 AM
I wish everyone would stop focusing on the speed of pitches. Location and baseball smarts are more important than mph. Gibson looks like he has a good off-speed out pitch. Let us hope he develops to become a Cy Young candidate, using smars & skills, instead of speed.

nicksaviking
07-01-2013, 10:24 AM
I wish everyone would stop focusing on the speed of pitches. Location and baseball smarts are more important than mph. Gibson looks like he has a good off-speed out pitch. Let us hope he develops to become a Cy Young candidate, using smars & skills, instead of speed.


Terry Ryan, what are you doing on this site?

diehardtwinsfan
07-01-2013, 10:52 AM
I wish everyone would stop focusing on the speed of pitches. Location and baseball smarts are more important than mph. Gibson looks like he has a good off-speed out pitch. Let us hope he develops to become a Cy Young candidate, using smars & skills, instead of speed.

Part of what makes a good out pitch is a pitch that the batter cannot keep up with. Speed is very much a factor. What's nice is that Gibson does keep his pitches in the low to mid 90s.

Winston Smith
07-01-2013, 11:11 AM
It's not like they traded our best outfielder and leadoff guy guy for Meyer.

big dog
07-01-2013, 11:17 AM
It's not like they traded our best outfielder and leadoff guy guy for Meyer.

It's not like a leadoff guy with a .314 OBP is that phenomenal. Even Clete is 20 points above that at the moment, and doing better than that when he leads off. I'll take my chances with Meyer.

orangevening
07-01-2013, 11:22 AM
Part of what makes a good out pitch is a pitch that the batter cannot keep up with. Speed is very much a factor. What's nice is that Gibson does keep his pitches in the low to mid 90s.

Most if not all major league hitters can hit a 97 mph fastball down the middle. What is more important IMO is command, movement and speed difference. A 85 mph fastball looks like a 90 mph fastball when you can throw a 70 mph change up. A 90 mph fastball with late movement on the outside corner on the knees is harder to hit than a 100 mph down the middle. Velocity is nice and can cover up mistakes, but not the most important.

PseudoSABR
07-01-2013, 11:37 AM
It's not like they traded our best outfielder and leadoff guy guy for Meyer.
You haven't checked Span's hitting line this year, have you?

nicksaviking
07-01-2013, 11:38 AM
Most if not all major league hitters can hit a 97 mph fastball down the middle. What is more important IMO is command, movement and speed difference. A 85 mph fastball looks like a 90 mph fastball when you can throw a 70 mph change up. A 90 mph fastball with late movement on the outside corner on the knees is harder to hit than a 100 mph down the middle. Velocity is nice and can cover up mistakes, but not the most important.

No one thinks that command isn't important, but minimalizing the effect of velocity is the same arguement as minimalizing the effect of a higher payroll. Neither guarantee sucess but they are very strong indicators as they provide a very large advantage.

Winston Smith
07-01-2013, 12:35 PM
You haven't checked Span's hitting line this year, have you?

Have you looked at what our leadoff guys have done this year?

Beezer07
07-01-2013, 12:58 PM
Have you looked at what our leadoff guys have done this year?

Option A: Keep Span. Result? Have a bad leadoff guy.

Option B: Trade Span. Result? Have bad leadoff guys AND a minor league pitcher with good potential.

B seems better to me.

Seth Stohs
07-01-2013, 01:43 PM
Velocity allows for a little more margin for error in location, but coupled with good command and two good secondary pitches, that makes an ace. But velocity alone is not enough.

I like and am excited about Randy Rosario, Yorman Landa, Jose Berrios, Felix Jorge and Kohl Stewart. However, the only one in that group whose potential is equal to Alex Meyer's is probably Stewart's. What's exciting is having a bunch of guys with big potential so that at the end of the day 2 or 3 of them can be successful big league pitchers.

diehardtwinsfan
07-01-2013, 01:47 PM
Most if not all major league hitters can hit a 97 mph fastball down the middle. What is more important IMO is command, movement and speed difference. A 85 mph fastball looks like a 90 mph fastball when you can throw a 70 mph change up. A 90 mph fastball with late movement on the outside corner on the knees is harder to hit than a 100 mph down the middle. Velocity is nice and can cover up mistakes, but not the most important.

Please re-read my post instead of arguing against a point you think I'm trying to make. I never said it was the most important. I just pointed out that it is a major factor.

chuchadoro
07-01-2013, 02:18 PM
I wish everyone would stop focusing on the speed of pitches. Location and baseball smarts are more important than mph. Gibson looks like he has a good off-speed out pitch. Let us hope he develops to become a Cy Young candidate, using smars & skills, instead of speed.

Is this because I mentioned in passing that Gibby throws harder than Webb? Did you see the first part of the statement that was very complimentary of Webb's sinker?

I don't remember writing "Gibson throws harder, therefore he'll be better than Webb." Apparently, you misinterpreted what I wrote or are aggravated by "everyone's" emphasis on power pitchers.

fairweather
07-01-2013, 02:58 PM
Watching Gibson he reminds me of a young Kris Benson. Now we all hope he has a better, healthier, more successful career than Benson, but that's who he reminds me of.

chuchadoro
07-01-2013, 03:43 PM
Watching Gibson he reminds me of a young Kris Benson. Now we all hope he has a better, healthier, more successful career than Benson, but that's who he reminds me of.

Thanks. We also hope he's less of a d bag and is able to steer clear of mentally unstable strippers.

nicksaviking
07-01-2013, 03:47 PM
Velocity allows for a little more margin for error in location, but coupled with good command and two good secondary pitches, that makes an ace. But velocity alone is not enough.

No doubt about that but with a lot of good coaching and luck, a pitcher can improve comand and learn secondary pitches. Velocity is generally a natural attribute though, which is why a lot of baseball people seem to focus on that first and hope the other two traits later come together.

drjim
07-01-2013, 04:51 PM
Now, more than ever, why didn't the Twins get John Lannan thrown into the deal, when the Nats were going to avoid arbitration and cut him anyway? At least they would have had a still-young (only 28) and proven innings-eater to show for the "blockbuster" trade.

Securing the right to pay Lannan twice as much through arby as he got as a free agent doesn't exactly seem like added value.

drjim
07-01-2013, 04:53 PM
It's not like they traded our best outfielder and leadoff guy guy for Meyer.

Shoulders are dicey but probably a little premature to call Meyer dead.

Kwak
07-01-2013, 04:56 PM
Maybe the Twins should sign a free agent pitcher this off-season to take Meyer's place in the 2014 rotation?

orangevening
07-01-2013, 05:16 PM
Terry Ryan, what are you doing on this site?

That always cracks me up...

jokin
07-01-2013, 06:41 PM
Securing the right to pay Lannan twice as much through arby as he got as a free agent doesn't exactly seem like added value.

Compared to what the Twins have now? The worst SP staff in all of baseball?

Assuming Lannan doesn't hurt his leg in April, Lannan would have been a huge value, if he had just performed at his career numbers (and he had started the season strong before the injury). Either as a proven, but still young, back-end innings-eater for a Correia-type cost.... or as a future potential trading chip or throw-in, the Twins had more than enough payroll space to take on his cost----and it's been more than demonstrated in real-time-spades that the Twins rotation options were... and for the most part still are.... simply awful.

Sorry, Lannan would have been very good value at whatever cost arbitration would have decided upon.

jokin
07-01-2013, 06:49 PM
Shoulders are dicey but probably a little premature to call Meyer dead.

I don't see anyone on this thread who has posted anything close to "calling Meyer dead"- prematurely or otherwise. Legitimate concerns started with the OP and have followed through, from the Twins FO on all the way down to the other respondents in this thread.

To assert anything like what you have inferred was said is, IMO, disingenuous.

drjim
07-01-2013, 06:57 PM
I don't see anyone on this thread who has posted anything close to "calling Meyer dead"- prematurely or otherwise. Legitimate concerns started with the OP and have followed through, from the Twins FO on all the way down to the other respondents in this thread.

To assert anything like what you have inferred was said is, IMO, disingenuous.

It was a response to someone complaining about giving up Span. I think there is a lot of time to go before the full verdict of that trade can be made.

drjim
07-01-2013, 06:59 PM
Compared to what the Twins have now? The worst SP staff in all of baseball?

Assuming Lannan doesn't hurt his leg in April, Lannan would have been a huge value, if he had just performed at his career numbers (and he had started the season strong before the injury). Either as a proven, but still young, back-end innings-eater for a Correia-type cost.... or as a future potential trading chip or throw-in, the Twins had more than enough payroll space to take on his cost----and it's been more than demonstrated in real-time-spades that the Twins rotation options were... and for the most part still are.... simply awful.

Sorry, Lannan would have been very good value at whatever cost arbitration would have decided upon.

I'm not overly impressed with a guy who spent most of his age 27 season at AAA, but if the Twins would have wanted him they could have signed him for less than the arby figure as a free agent. There was no reason to include him in the trade.

Nick Nelson
07-01-2013, 07:02 PM
With regards to the "importance of velocity" discussion... below, I've ranked every Twins pitcher by ERA, with their average fastball velocity accompanying (min. 25 innings, although I had to throw in Gibson because he fits so perfectly):

Pitcher - ERA - FB velo (MPH)
Glen Perkins - 2.05 - 94.6
Ryan Pressly - 2.63 - 92.9
Kyle Gibson - 3.00 - 92.2
Anthony Swarzak - 3.08 - 91.3
Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
Josh Roenicke - 3.38 - 91.1
Jared Burton 3.57 - 91.6
Casey Fien - 3.58 - 90.1
Brian Duensing - 3.81 - 92.0
Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

Now, let me be very clear that this is a vast oversimplification, and Pelfrey is an obvious exception, but you can't help being struck looking at that pattern. The difference between 89 and 91 is a mere fraction of a millisecond, but in baseball, those count. It means added margin for error. When you don't have great stuff or consistently precise command (as is the case with most of these current Twins' starters) you need that margin for error.

The Wise One
07-01-2013, 07:12 PM
If it's a sticky shoulder surgery situation for Meyer, by the time they properly diagnose and schedule it, he probably would have little chance to be ready to pitch next spring.

But it could be even worse than that. Recent studies have been done that show that while around 85% of elbow surgeries end up in pitchers equaling or exceeding previous performance levels......for shoulders, it's less than 50%. This is very, very disconcerting news and the Twins extreme caution is well-justified. If things don't take a turn back to the positive, it's now getting too uncomfortably near the area wherein it's less than a coin flip that Meyer still projects to being the potential Ace pitcher we once all hoped for.

Now, more than ever, why didn't the Twins get John Lannan thrown into the deal, when the Nats were going to avoid arbitration and cut him anyway? At least they would have had a still-young (only 28) and proven innings-eater to show for the "blockbuster" trade.

The reportsMRI was negative. Do you have some inside information or just having pessimism?
Proven innings eater was out two months. I guess that is the qualification you are calling innings eater. Below average era for the NL to boot.

TRex
07-01-2013, 07:32 PM
With regards to the "importance of velocity" discussion... below, I've ranked every Twins pitcher by ERA, with their average fastball velocity accompanying (min. 25 innings, although I had to throw in Gibson because he fits so perfectly):

Pitcher - ERA - FB velo (MPH)
Glen Perkins - 2.05 - 94.6
Ryan Pressly - 2.63 - 92.9
Kyle Gibson - 3.00 - 92.2
Anthony Swarzak - 3.08 - 91.3
Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
Josh Roenicke - 3.38 - 91.1
Jared Burton 3.57 - 91.6
Casey Fien - 3.58 - 90.1
Brian Duensing - 3.81 - 92.0
Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

Now, let me be very clear that this is a vast oversimplification, and Pelfrey is an obvious exception, but you can't help being struck looking at that pattern. The difference between 89 and 91 is a mere fraction of a millisecond, but in baseball, those count. It means added margin for error. When you don't have great stuff or consistently precise command (as is the case with most of these current Twins' starters) you need that margin for error.

I would suggest that velocity for a starter and a reliever are quite different, as it is well documented that starters moving to a bullpen role frequently add 2-3 mph to their fastball.

If you agree, another look at the starters on your chart indicates NO significant correlation.

Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

That being said, I certainly think it is better to be Gibson and throw 92-93 with movement than to be Correia and throw 90-91 with movement.

Nick Nelson
07-01-2013, 07:33 PM
I would suggest that velocity for a starter and a reliever are quite different, as it is well documented that starters moving to a bullpen role frequently add 2-3 mph to their fastball.
And get better results.

That's why starting pitchers who can work in the mid-90s for an entire game are such valued assets.

jokin
07-01-2013, 08:21 PM
The reportsMRI was negative. Do you have some inside information or just having pessimism?
Proven innings eater was out two months. I guess that is the qualification you are calling innings eater. Below average era for the NL to boot.

You are factually wrong on Lannan.

Injuries to his leg, first significant time off in his career. Please check back on his career stats for his proven qualifications.

Lannan's career ERA through 2012 is 4.01. The NL average ERA for SPs over Lannan's career time-frame (2007-12) is 4.23. His IP over that time ranks 27 overall, and counting his minor league innings over the last 5 years, he's averaged 188 IP/YR. with 32 games started per year.

Regarding Meyer, why aren't you asking this of the OP and the Twins FO, as well? The MRI was negative, but the Twins are publicly expressing concern about the lack of improvement in his condition since the shutdown, and now the special trip to Minneapolis. That is certainly not the type of news developments that lead to positive thoughts.

My comment was in regards to Meyer possibly facing surgery at some point if this is leading to something that hasn't yet shown on the MRI- It has been shown that shoulder injuries requiring surgery generally don't lead to more good outcomes over bad ones.

diehardtwinsfan
07-01-2013, 08:32 PM
I would suggest that velocity for a starter and a reliever are quite different, as it is well documented that starters moving to a bullpen role frequently add 2-3 mph to their fastball.

If you agree, another look at the starters on your chart indicates NO significant correlation.

Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

That being said, I certainly think it is better to be Gibson and throw 92-93 with movement than to be Correia and throw 90-91 with movement.

the correlation might not be as significant with just the starters, but then again, our starters tend to throw at about the same speed, and you left Gibson off. That said, your comment that it is well documented that relievers can add a few ticks to their pitches plays into exactly what Nick was saying. What likely can mess up those stats is that reliever that comes in and lets all of his inherited runners to score (affecting the pitcher) while still getting his outs vs. a guy like Perkins whose job is to pitch one inning.

jokin
07-01-2013, 08:36 PM
I'm not overly impressed with a guy who spent most of his age 27 season at AAA, but if the Twins would have wanted him they could have signed him for less than the arby figure as a free agent. There was no reason to include him in the trade.

The decision to send Lannan down by the Nats was a controversial one, and a close call made at the close of spring training. It was largely a function of the Nats SP numbers game as they continued to improve their rotation depth with young arms- not a reflection of a sudden drop-off in Lannan. The Twins didn't want him, that is a given- as they had already "moved on" to being shrewd and "thrifty" with their dumpster diving methodology and rather peculiarly signing a starter just 8 months off of TJ surgery. So you and I can look at what the Twins are trotting out in the rotation now---- and the numbers that are the worst in baseball for starting pitchers--- and one can't possibly come to the conclusion that there "was no reason to include him in the trade." To the contrary, other than Deduno, Lannan would have been the best option coming out of spring training- better, and a more durable and reliable track record than Worley and Correia, at a cost of just one year's worth of Correia.

clutterheart
07-01-2013, 08:42 PM
I wish everyone would stop focusing on the speed of pitches. Location and baseball smarts are more important than mph. Gibson looks like he has a good off-speed out pitch. Let us hope he develops to become a Cy Young candidate, using smars & skills, instead of speed.

Maybe, but a smarts, loccation + a big FB would be fantastic

drjim
07-02-2013, 09:37 AM
The decision to send Lannan down by the Nats was a controversial one, and a close call made at the close of spring training. It was largely a function of the Nats SP numbers game as they continued to improve their rotation depth with young arms- not a reflection of a sudden drop-off in Lannan. The Twins didn't want him, that is a given- as they had already "moved on" to being shrewd and "thrifty" with their dumpster diving methodology and rather peculiarly signing a starter just 8 months off of TJ surgery. So you and I can look at what the Twins are trotting out in the rotation now---- and the numbers that are the worst in baseball for starting pitchers--- and one can't possibly come to the conclusion that there "was no reason to include him in the trade." To the contrary, other than Deduno, Lannan would have been the best option coming out of spring training- better, and a more durable and reliable track record than Worley and Correia, at a cost of just one year's worth of Correia.

Sure Lannan. I grant there is a chance he could have been a slight upgrade on Pelfrey and/or Correia.

Probably not enough of a reason to acquire him for the right to pay twice as much as he got as a free agent. Perhaps the Twins should have signed him.

BoBo71
07-02-2013, 05:27 PM
The future of the rotation is in the CR, GCL and E-twon
Guys like Felix Jorge, Randy Rosario, Yorman Landa, Berrios, Stewart are going to be the future.
Gibson, Meyer, May are nice pitchers, but in my opinion, by the time the above guys get to AA, the Twins are going to be looking at a amazing future rotation.

Just not true. Most players look good at A, Low-A, Rookie, and Instructional. It's when they get to AA that their weaknesses--both physical and mental--become magnified. Look at Trevor May. There's no way any one of the prospects you listed is more highly regarded than May was when he was at those lower levels. Yet, here he is now, seemingly stuck in AA for eternity. Gibson and Meyer (along with Barrios, perhaps) are the cream of the crop in this organization. There are plenty of other interesting arms, but those are the guys that have been pegged to lead this organization to the promise land. And it looks like we'll need to come up with another one or two at AA or higher via trade if we really want to contend soon.

jokin
07-08-2013, 08:39 PM
Sure Lannan. I grant there is a chance he could have been a slight upgrade on Pelfrey and/or Correia.

Probably not enough of a reason to acquire him for the right to pay twice as much as he got as a free agent. Perhaps the Twins should have signed him.

John Lannan pitched 8 innings of shutout ball tonight against the Nationals. ERA is now 4.23. 8 innings and 4.23 are more than enough reasons to have signed, or traded for, Lannan, compared to the bulk of the Twins starting staff. (Has anyone gone 8 this year?) 5 of 8 starts on the season have been Quality Starts, including 3 of 5 since being reactivated. If fully healthy, and given the Feldman trade, how much could have been received in trade for Lannan?

diehardtwinsfan
07-08-2013, 08:57 PM
8 starts on the season? I'd go with "not much more than Corriea".

jokin
07-08-2013, 09:41 PM
8 starts on the season? I'd go with "not much more than Corriea".

It's hard to project a leg injury 3 starts into the season, especially from a guy who ha had only one 15 day DL in his entire career up to 2013.

Oh BTW, 5 QS out of 8 total gives him a 63% rate of starting effectiveness. The Twins staff has 32 QS in 86 games- that comes out to 37%. Kevin Correia? 9 QS in 17 starts-- 53%.

drjim
07-08-2013, 10:22 PM
John Lannan pitched 8 innings of shutout ball tonight against the Nationals. ERA is now 4.23. 8 innings and 4.23 are more than enough reasons to have signed, or traded for, Lannan, compared to the bulk of the Twins starting staff. (Has anyone gone 8 this year?) 5 of 8 starts on the season have been Quality Starts, including 3 of 5 since being reactivated. If fully healthy, and given the Feldman trade, how much could have been received in trade for Lannan?

Personally I was not opposed to your hypothetical Lannan signing (as I suggested in my previous post). I just don't think the Twins, if they were to do such a signing, needed to spend twice as much on him as it would have taken to sign him.

But to answer your question - at this point I don't think Lannan would net the Twins much of anything. Perhaps that would change by the deadline.

Nick Nelson
07-08-2013, 11:52 PM
Jokin, you need to drop this Lannan thing. When not injured, the guy has been thoroughly mediocre in the National League. He's no better than what the Twins have. I mean... seriously, is this a bit?