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View Full Version : Is Andrew Albers for real?



robbie111
06-24-2013, 03:31 PM
A lot of Twins fans myself included have been pleasantly surprised by the year Andrew Albers is having. Currently he is 7-2 with an era of 2.93 for this year which ranks 5th among all starters in the international league. Of those 5 starters Albers k/9 ranks 2nd. For those comparing, his k/9 is actually a little higher than Kyle Gibson and his bb/9 is lower than Gibsons. This June Albers is 5-0 with an era of 2.43, 33.1 ip, 26 hits, 7 bb, and 27 K's, opponents are hitting .230 off of him and he has a whip of 0.99. So the question is what would be his upside and do you think he is for real or is he another AAAA pitcher?

RodneyKline
06-24-2013, 03:37 PM
Why not bring him up for a few starts to see if he is for real against MLB hitters?

Smcginnity
06-24-2013, 03:37 PM
I've been wondering this same thing. Do we have a formidable crew of young pitchers on the near horizon in Gibson, Darnell, Albers, Deduno, May, Meyer, Baxendale and Berrios? If that's the case, which of those 8 have the best chance at being in our starting rotation to start 2014?

ThePuck
06-24-2013, 03:42 PM
I've been wondering this same thing. Do we have a formidable crew of young pitchers on the near horizon in Gibson, Darnell, Albers, Deduno, May, Meyer, Baxendale and Berrios? If that's the case, which of those 8 have the best chance at being in our starting rotation to start 2014?

With the exception of Deduno your formidable crew of young pitchers description seems to fit the bill.

I'd like to think Gibson, Meyer and Albers will be in the rotation to start 2014, but it's too hard to tell, really. At least at this point

nicksaviking
06-24-2013, 03:50 PM
His K numbers have increased quite a bit lately, though I was under the impression he was just another soft tossing lefty. I wouldn't think he would be able to come anywhere close to duplicating those numbers at the majors but I guess you never know until you try.

ashburyjohn
06-24-2013, 04:16 PM
Why not bring him up for a few starts to see if he is for real against MLB hitters?

The simple answer is that he's not on the 40-man roster, so bringing him up has consequences that bringing up someone like Gibson does not.

It's easy to say that the current 40-man doesn't have any future HoF pitchers on it, so no big loss if you DFA a guy and he's picked up; but if that becomes your standard operating procedure, you end up with all your marginal major-league talent being claimed, and only the real dregs remain at AAA.

jorgenswest
06-24-2013, 04:50 PM
Obviously there isn't much to learn from numbers at this number of plate appearances. Seeing him pitch would have much more value. His k-rate and walk rate are ok. His groundball rate is around 42% which is not very encouraging. With that groundball rate, he will need to maintain the strike out rate into the majors. That isn't likely.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-24-2013, 05:20 PM
Perhaps he's similar to Scott Diamond with strikeout material? Both soft tossing lefties. Just throwing that out there, but I really have no clue.

Badsmerf
06-24-2013, 05:49 PM
Obviously there isn't much to learn from numbers at this number of plate appearances. Seeing him pitch would have much more value. His k-rate and walk rate are ok. His groundball rate is around 42% which is not very encouraging. With that groundball rate, he will need to maintain the strike out rate into the majors. That isn't likely.
I disagree. Ground balls are more likely to be hits than balls hit in the air. Obviously, line-drives are pretty likely to be hits too. I've come to the conclusion that ground balls don't matter unless you are an elite ground ball guy like Gibson. I think the ground ball craze got big during the steroid era when balls hit in the air were leaving the park at an unprecedented rate. Shoot, an infield fly is the absolute worst type of contact a hitter can make, which is converted to an out nearly 100% of the time.

mickeyg
06-24-2013, 06:09 PM
I have watched a good many of his starts. He throws an effective change up, slow curve (68mph) and fastball is 88-90. He goes right after the hitters and usually is ahead I. The count. Every time I think he can't keep performing at this level he throws another 6+ plus innings with 2 or less runs. He understands how to change speed and location.

Too bad he was not on the 40man, as Sunday was his regular star and he could have started in Cleveland instead of Rochester. On the upside he could be a 2012 Scott Diamond or on the downside he would be no more effective than Pedro Hernandez. I'd like to see him to get a chance. He also was on the Canada WBC team. Also a 24-7 minor league W/L record isn't too shabby.

Kwak
06-24-2013, 06:13 PM
Unless someone has watched this guy, timed his pitches, and are sufficiently aware of the opposing hitters, any comment is spurious. That being said, his season is very interesting and I fully expect that Albers will recieve an invite to the ML ST camp next February with a spot on the 40-man roster as his carrot.

jorgenswest
06-24-2013, 06:19 PM
I disagree. Ground balls are more likely to be hits than balls hit in the air. Obviously, line-drives are pretty likely to be hits too. I've come to the conclusion that ground balls don't matter unless you are an elite ground ball guy like Gibson. I think the ground ball craze got big during the steroid era when balls hit in the air were leaving the park at an unprecedented rate. Shoot, an infield fly is the absolute worst type of contact a hitter can make, which is converted to an out nearly 100% of the time.

His line drive rate is 19% but probably not enough plate appearance to be stable. It is certain to escalate against major league hitters. If you don't get ground balls and your strike rate is below average, you are going to give up a lot of home runs. It is hard to be successful over the long run. Lefties Barry Zito and Bruce Chen have been around a long time with that mix. They both rely on a heavy mix of sliders and curve balls. Is Albers a compto either? Diamond is a ground ball pitcher and probably not a comp.

robbie111
06-24-2013, 08:37 PM
Would his upside be a healthy Brett Anderson?

jorgenswest
06-24-2013, 09:18 PM
Would his upside be a healthy Brett Anderson?

They are different types of pitchers. Anderson is 2 or 3 years younger and a ground ball pitcher.

Best scenario would be to demonstrate success over the course of the year and earn a September call up.

The hope might be a Bruce Chen. Both have shown reverse platoon splits. Neither is a groundball pitcher (Chen appears more extreme but hard to compare his rates vs. major league hitters). Neither throw hard. Both are left handed.

Anorthagen
06-24-2013, 09:19 PM
If he keeps it up a September call up will be in his future.

Monkeypaws
06-24-2013, 09:40 PM
I have watched a good many of his starts. He throws an effective change up, slow curve (68mph) and fastball is 88-90. He goes right after the hitters and usually is ahead I. The count. Every time I think he can't keep performing at this level he throws another 6+ plus innings with 2 or less runs. He understands how to change speed and location.

Too bad he was not on the 40man, as Sunday was his regular star and he could have started in Cleveland instead of Rochester. On the upside he could be a 2012 Scott Diamond or on the downside he would be no more effective than Pedro Hernandez. I'd like to see him to get a chance. He also was on the Canada WBC team. Also a 24-7 minor league W/L record isn't too shabby.

I noticed that too. Neither is a career minor league ERA of 2.63 over 349 innings.

Rick Niedermann
06-24-2013, 10:02 PM
Would he be the option when Gibson is shutdown?

Seth Stohs
06-24-2013, 10:35 PM
I really like Albers. He was my choice for Twins minor leaguer relief pitcher of the year in 2011 (and hence was on the cover of the 2012 prospect handbook). I did a story on him, and he was a great interview. His story is remarkable. Basically, he was in Arizona and called the Twins and said, "will you watch me pitch? I will drive to Ft. Myers. If you don't think I have a chance, I'll drive back to Saskatchewan and move on and pay my way. If you think I'm worthy of signing, you can reimburse my trip." The Twins said OK, and he's been terrific since.

He made a nice impression at big league camp. Rosario and Berrios got the attention, but Albers also got the opportunity to go to camp because he was pitching for Canada in the WBC. He is very aggressive and counts on his defense. I'm curious how he's getting the strikeouts, but he is. I'd love to see him get a shot. Like Thielbar, he was given up on by his original team and fought his way back through the independent leagues. Great story! Needs a great ending!

Oldgoat_MN
06-24-2013, 10:50 PM
... For those comparing, his k/9 is actually a little higher than Kyle Gibson and his bb/9 is lower than Gibsons. This June Albers is 5-0 with an era of 2.43, 33.1 ip, 26 hits, 7 bb, and 27 K's, opponents are hitting .230 off of him and he has a whip of 0.99. ...

Can you even imagine the vitriol on this site had Albers been called up instead of Gibson?

Sometimes the name means more than it should.
Hope to see Albers before the year is out.

cmathewson
06-24-2013, 10:58 PM
I'd like to see him pitch. He must have some deception or something. At the very least a September call-up.

Kwak
06-24-2013, 11:11 PM
If he is : cool under fire, holds/picks-off runners, and is well above average at fielding his position, Albers can be a very effective SP--Mark Buerhle. The Twins haven't had anybody close to that skill set for awhile.

jorgenswest
06-24-2013, 11:25 PM
By the time Buehrle was Albers current age, he had reached 100 wins, played on 3 all star teams and was a starter on a World Series champ. The Twins haven't had that skill set in a while.

I really think they are different style pitchers. Buerhle is about location - fastball and change up. Albers utilizes his slow curve.