PDA

View Full Version : Examining the Dominance of Josmil Pinto



Boone
06-23-2013, 02:47 PM
After a breakout year in Ft. Myers in 2012, Pinto is off to an excellent season in New Britain. When analyzing Pinto’s performance, I chose to look first at his numbers in two different peripheral categories: K/BB ratio (a good indicator of plate discipline that also contributes to a high batting average and OBP) and ISO (best indicator of power). Looking at these numbers also eliminates the significant irregularities of BABIP that can skew single-season statistics.
It is always important to consider a prospect’s age relative to their peers. For this reason, I compare Pinto’s age to the other league leaders. It is important to note that Pinto has always been rather old for his league. However, because few of the players whose numbers in a particular category are younger than him, the significance of this age difference is diminished.

2012: Florida State League 2012 (age 23)


15th in BB/K ratio (.62)

Only 7 players with a better BB/K ratio were younger than 23 (Pinto’s age)
No player with a better BB/K ratio had an ISO as high as Pinto (.178)- the highest ISO amongst players with a better BB/K ratio was .140


10th highest ISO (.178)

Only 5 players with a higher ISO were younger than him
Only 1 player with a higher ISO had a higher batting average (Yellich)
Only 1 player with a higher ISO had a higher OBP



2013: Eastern League (age 24)


12th in BB/K ratio (.83)

Only 3 players with a higher BB/K ratio are younger than 24 (Pinto’s age)
Only 1 player with a higher BB/K ratio has a higher ISO than Pinto


13th in ISO

Only 4 players with a higher ISO are younger than 24
Only 2 players with a higher ISO have a higher batting average
Only 1 player with a higher ISO has a higher OBP




Pinto’s excellent numbers in K/BB ratio have led to both a high batting average and a high OBP (despite posting rather normal BABIP) and his high isolated slugging has led to a high slugging percentage. Also, notice how few players possess the power and plate discipline that Pinto does.

2012- Florida State League: BABIP of .326


6th in batting average (.295)

4 players with a higher batting average were younger than 23


11th in OBP (.361)

5 players with a higher OBP were younger than 23


5th in SLG (.473)

2 players with a higher SLG were younger than 23



2013- Eastern League: BABIP of .360


7th in batting average (.312)

2 players with a higher batting average are younger than 24


6th in OBP (.418)

No player with a higher OBP are younger than 24


8th in SLG (.510)

1 player with a higher SLG is younger than 24




It is relatively rare to find a player with such success in all 3 of these categories. As you would expect, Pinto’s excellent triple slash line has resulted in a very high OPS.


2012- Florida State League: 4th in OPS (.834)

Only 1 player with a better OPS was younger than him (Marlins top prospect Christian Yellich)
Of the 12 players with an OPS above .800, only 6 were younger than 23 (Pinto’s age)


2013- Eastern League: 4th in OPS (.928)

Only 1 player with a higher OPS is younger than him
Of the 13 players with an OPS above .850, only 3 are younger than 24 (Pinto’s age)



Pinto's excellent offensive production could allow him to play a role similar to Ryan Doumit: a poor defensive catcher whose bat plays in the middle of the order and at 1B/LF/DH. It's possible that the presence of Chris Hermann in AAA is holding him back, but expect a promotion sometimes this season, especially if Doumit is traded.

Thrylos
06-23-2013, 02:53 PM
Good stuff and Pinto should be on top of the Twins' C prospects, but



Pinto's excellent offensive production could allow him to play a role similar to Ryan Doumit: a poor defensive catcher whose bat plays in the middle of the order and at 1B/LF/DH. It's possible that the presence of Chris Hermann in AAA is holding him back, but expect a promotion sometimes this season, especially if Doumit is traded.

He is as "poor" defensive catcher, as Butera is a "great" defensive catcher. Suburban tales...

Pinto is fine behind the plate and has a strong arm. Herrmann (and Rohlfing) are probably more suited to a Doumit role because they are more versatile.

One think that Pinto emergence is: the final nail in Butera's coffin. I suspect that he gets traded or released (not offered arbitration) sooner than later.

greengoblinrulz
06-23-2013, 03:12 PM
This is a perfect time/league to get Pinto some time at 1B with nobody but Reynaldo Rodriguez but the organization seemingly always waits on certain players to try new position.
He is NOT blocked by Chris Hermann, who is basically playing LF. He is blocked by Drew Butera!!! There is a lil over 2 months left in minor league season....perfect amount of time for Pinto to get some AAA experience before his Sept recall. This kind of thinking for MN doesnt happen tho. They seem to keep their prospects in AA too long & then after recalling them, say the reason they dont succeed is their lack of AAA experience (Parm/Benson/Hermann/Hicks the latest examples).
They already have Danny Lehman FAKING an injury to get Butera playing time for what some say is to trade him :roll:......funniest thing ever said on this site!!!!! Get rid of Drew & get Josmil up to AAA.

jokin
06-23-2013, 03:50 PM
After a breakout year in Ft. Myers in 2012, Pinto is off to an excellent season in New Britain. When analyzing Pinto’s performance, I chose to look first at his numbers in two different peripheral categories: K/BB ratio (a good indicator of plate discipline that also contributes to a high batting average and OBP) and ISO (best indicator of power). Looking at these numbers also eliminates the significant irregularities of BABIP that can skew single-season statistics.
It is always important to consider a prospect’s age relative to their peers. For this reason, I compare Pinto’s age to the other league leaders. It is important to note that Pinto has always been rather old for his league. However, because few of the players whose numbers in a particular category are younger than him, the significance of this age difference is diminished.

2012: Florida State League 2012 (age 23)


15th in BB/K ratio (.62)

Only 7 players with a better BB/K ratio were younger than 23 (Pinto’s age)
No player with a better BB/K ratio had an ISO as high as Pinto (.178)- the highest ISO amongst players with a better BB/K ratio was .140


10th highest ISO (.178)

Only 5 players with a higher ISO were younger than him
Only 1 player with a higher ISO had a higher batting average (Yellich)
Only 1 player with a higher ISO had a higher OBP



2013: Eastern League (age 24)


12th in BB/K ratio (.83)

Only 3 players with a higher BB/K ratio are younger than 24 (Pinto’s age)
Only 1 player with a higher BB/K ratio has a higher ISO than Pinto


13th in ISO

Only 4 players with a higher ISO are younger than 24
Only 2 players with a higher ISO have a higher batting average
Only 1 player with a higher ISO has a higher OBP




Pinto’s excellent numbers in K/BB ratio have led to both a high batting average and a high OBP (despite posting rather normal BABIP) and his high isolated slugging has led to a high slugging percentage. Also, notice how few players possess the power and plate discipline that Pinto does.

2012- Florida State League: BABIP of .326


6th in batting average (.295)

4 players with a higher batting average were younger than 23


11th in OBP (.361)

5 players with a higher OBP were younger than 23


5th in SLG (.473)

2 players with a higher SLG were younger than 23



2013- Eastern League: BABIP of .360


7th in batting average (.312)

2 players with a higher batting average are younger than 24


6th in OBP (.418)

No player with a higher OBP are younger than 24


8th in SLG (.510)

1 player with a higher SLG is younger than 24




It is relatively rare to find a player with such success in all 3 of these categories. As you would expect, Pinto’s excellent triple slash line has resulted in a very high OPS.


2012- Florida State League: 4th in OPS (.834)

Only 1 player with a better OPS was younger than him (Marlins top prospect Christian Yellich)
Of the 12 players with an OPS above .800, only 6 were younger than 23 (Pinto’s age)


2013- Eastern League: 4th in OPS (.928)

Only 1 player with a higher OPS is younger than him
Of the 13 players with an OPS above .850, only 3 are younger than 24 (Pinto’s age)




Pinto's excellent offensive production could allow him to play a role similar to Ryan Doumit: a poor defensive catcher whose bat plays in the middle of the order and at 1B/LF/DH. It's possible that the presence of Chris Hermann in AAA is holding him back, but expect a promotion sometimes this season, especially if Doumit is traded.

Pinto's 2 errors in today's came help to underscore your excellent breakdown. Pinto's 8 years in the Twins organization without sniffing AAA are a reflection of how the FO feels about his awful defense. I'm afraid that Pinto is destined to more likely a Jose Morales Twins experience at the low side than a Brian Harper experience for the upside.

Larsbars08
06-23-2013, 04:22 PM
Pinto's 2 errors in today's came help to underscore your excellent breakdown. Pinto's 8 years in the Twins organization without sniffing AAA are a reflection of how the FO feels about his awful defense. I'm afraid that Pinto is destined to more likely a Jose Morales Twins experience at the low side than a Brian Harper experience for the upside.

Morales never had Pinto's power at any level of the minors. Plus Pinto's year in in A+ and his year in AA this year were far better than any year Morales had.

If Pinto continues to hit like he has, there will be a spot in AAA and a spot on the Twins soon. If the Twins are willing to let Doumit catch 40-50 games a year, they'll have no problem with Pinto.

greengoblinrulz
06-23-2013, 04:35 PM
Depends on what the errors were......defense is no longer judged (correctly that is) by errors. Official scoring is absolutely horrendous these days.

Thrylos
06-23-2013, 05:02 PM
This is a perfect time/league to get Pinto some time at 1B with nobody but Reynaldo Rodriguez but the organization seemingly always waits on certain players to try new position.

ummmm... No.
Pinto has played a grand total of 14 games at 1B in his life and the last time was at the VSL in 2006. He is about 5'9" (listed generously more I think). I can think of a million other positions but first base...


Eric Fryer is "blocking" him as well. I certainly see a September call up...

jokin
06-23-2013, 05:04 PM
Depends on what the errors were......defense is no longer judged (correctly that is) by errors. Official scoring is absolutely horrendous these days.

Official scoring is horrendous, and the people with the most right to complain are the pitchers. FYI, Pinto's errors sure sound legit in the box score- dropped ball, throwing error.

jokin
06-23-2013, 05:06 PM
ummmm... No.
Pinto has played a grand total of 14 games at 1B in his life and the last time was at the VSL in 2006. He is about 5'9" (listed generously more I think). I can think of a million other positions but first base...


Eric Fryer is "blocking" him as well. I certainly see a September call up...

Sounds like "toy cannon" might be his best position. There are probably good reasons why Pinto has been waiting for the big opportunity in the organization for 8 years- this is just one of them.

diehardtwinsfan
06-23-2013, 08:01 PM
For all the talk about being with the org for 8 years, people seem to forget that he's 23. 23 year old catchers that post a .900 OPS in AA ball don't grow on trees. Likewise, I'm not sure where people are saying his defense is bad, from what I've read, it was pretty good. I think a better comp is Wilson Ramos (though his plate discipline was a bit better).

Truth be told, he's being blocked by Doumit. He's probably not quite ready for the show, but I'd bet his bat plays better at MLB than Herrman or Butera. If Doumit were to be traded in July, I could see one of these guys keeping the spot warm while Pinto is moved to AAA, but I strongly suspect Pinto is going to find himself on the 40 man roster this offseason, with either Butera or Herrman removed.

Oxtung
06-23-2013, 08:40 PM
...I strongly suspect Pinto is going to find himself on the 40 man roster this offseason, with either Butera or Herrman removed.

Not sure about Butera or Herrmann but Pinto already is on the 40-man roster.

Boone
06-23-2013, 09:13 PM
Pinto's bat is so good that the Twins need to find a place on their roster for him. Although he isn't the Twins' best hitting prospect, he is one of the most complete: Sano strikes out a ton, Rosario doesn't draw many walks, etc. In my opinion, there are very few hitters in the system who are as likely to post several years of .800 OPS as Pinto.
Hopefully he gets promoted to AAA soon and gets a cup of coffee in September. I wouldn't mind seeing him start next season in AAA, but he should be a regular by next year's trade deadline.

stringer bell
06-23-2013, 09:54 PM
Many points made in this thread. I think the pro-Pinto comments win the argument. He is still pretty young, he is a really complete hitter, and there is no concrete evidence that he can't be a serviceable defensive catcher. I understand that he is now in far better physical shape than he has been in his earlier years and that may have held him back previously. I am on board with trading Doumit at the deadline and I would advocate Pinto getting a look for the Twins at that time. I understand that the Twins could go with Herrmann or Butera, but I believe Pinto is part of this team's future and they just as well go with him right away.

diehardtwinsfan
06-24-2013, 07:33 AM
Yeah, he's Doumit's replacement as long as he doesn't fall flat on his face... I didn't realize he was on the 40 man (and yes, Butera and Herrman are). Are we really carrying 5 catchers on the 40 man? Yikes.

I'm not sure he's getting promoted this season unless Doumit gets traded in the next month. I suspect he starts next season in Rochester after the Twins release or trade one of Herrman/Butera. He'll likely slot into a part time DH role/backup catcher as long as he can hit.

2wins87
06-24-2013, 08:24 AM
For all the talk about being with the org for 8 years, people seem to forget that he's 23. 23 year old catchers that post a .900 OPS in AA ball don't grow on trees.

Splitting hairs but he's actually 24. If he makes his debut in September he will be 24 years plus 5 months old, still younger than the average for catchers. If he debuts sometime early next year he'll be a shade over 25.

Brock Beauchamp
06-24-2013, 09:14 AM
Wow, great analysis. You should consider posting this kind of stuff as a blog entry, Boone. We'd almost surely promote it to front page status.

ericchri
06-24-2013, 09:36 AM
Seems like a RH complement to Mauer would work out really well to start him out in the bigs, getting the limited starts against LH pitchers. But looking at his numbers this year, he's beating the snot out of righties (.321/.436/.520/.957) as opposed to only hitting extremely well (.295/.368/.492/.859) against lefties. That's even more encouraging about his future prospects to be a legit big leaguer.

It's interesting every year, but the trade deadline this year almost feels moreso, as it determines which of the young guys are going to get their chance when. I don't expect Doumit to get traded mostly due to them just signing him to the extention, but it would be interesting to see who would get the call if they did.

mike wants wins
06-24-2013, 09:37 AM
Great write up! Another player I'm hoping to see in MN late this year, next year.....

diehardtwinsfan
06-24-2013, 02:21 PM
It's interesting every year, but the trade deadline this year almost feels moreso, as it determines which of the young guys are going to get their chance when. I don't expect Doumit to get traded mostly due to them just signing him to the extention, but it would be interesting to see who would get the call if they did.

The more I think about it, the more I think Doumit is the guy who gets traded. Pinto is likely the long term replacement, though I suspect that it would be Buterman that would replace Doumit this year. With Doumit, he's hitting well and has stayed healthy for two seasons now, and has a reasonable additional season on his contract. He might fetch a decent prospect, and I don't see that prospect improving much if he has the exact same season next year.

Oxtung
06-24-2013, 11:48 PM
I remember a quote from Gardenhire during spring training where he basically was questioning either Pinto's or Herrmann's ability to stick at catcher in the majors. I can't remember which one he was talking about and now the interwebs have failed me. Does anyone remember this quote or can anyone find it? I think it was from either the Star Tribune or Pioneer Press, though it could have been one of their online blogs.

diehardtwinsfan
06-25-2013, 10:48 AM
I remember a quote from Gardenhire during spring training where he basically was questioning either Pinto's or Herrmann's ability to stick at catcher in the majors. I can't remember which one he was talking about and now the interwebs have failed me. Does anyone remember this quote or can anyone find it? I think it was from either the Star Tribune or Pioneer Press, though it could have been one of their online blogs.

I don't, but if Herrman cannot stick at catcher, he won't be playing in the bigs. His bat doesn't play anywhere but C.