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Teflon
04-06-2012, 06:52 PM
I've been arguing in various posts that the Twins need better defenders in the outfield corners if they want to support their pitching staff. In today's season opener, we instead got a catcher put in right field and the result was a Nick Markakis drive at the fence getting misplayed into a into a run-scoring triple.

542

Jim Palmer, doing color for the Orioles broadcast, said, "Cuddyer probably would have caught it, but he's in Colorado."

I think most actual right fielders would have made the play, too. Yes, it had a fair degree of difficulty as it was a midday start and there was a bright sun, but that's why you play full-time outfielders in the outfield in games with this pitching staff, tough sun, etc. and not catchers. (Doumit's handled 112 chances as an outfielder in his 7-year big league career.) I like Doumit. I think he was a good signing by the Twins, but he looked as uncomfortable playing that position as I felt watching him. Joe Mauer, the best natural athlete Minnesota has ever produced, says he's uncomfortable trying to play right field.*

It should be noted that Josh Willingham, an actual outfielder by trade - albeit a slower one, made a very nice fielding play on a Matt Wieters foul ball along the line in short left and a strong throw to the plate to double up Markakis who had tagged-up at third. Willingham doesn't have a rep as being strong-armed but made a quick accurate thow. Kudos, Josh. Nice play.

* On second thought, maybe Dave Winfield is the best natural athlete Minnesota has produced since he could play right field.

John Bonnes
04-06-2012, 08:09 PM
It was an important play, to be sure. And Doumit looked pretty bad. I guess I just believe that an average athlete can pick that position up fairly quickly. This year might change my tune, but I'd still stick with this alignment over one that had Parmelee on the bench.

nicksaviking
04-06-2012, 08:17 PM
Absolutely right. The strange thing is, this is totally contrary to Twins baseball. There is a reason Plouffe and Hughes no longer play short. I'm not sure why the same pricipal doesn't apply to the outfield. Regardless, Doumit is not part of the long term plan. Hopefully Plouffe gets enough time out there to see if he is. Having a backup catcher/late inning pinch hitter of Doumit's caliber is not a bad option in my book.

Thrylos
04-06-2012, 08:39 PM
Jim Palmer, doing color for the Orioles broadcast, said, "Cuddyer probably would have caught it, but he's in Colorado."



the problem with that is that Jim Palmer has seen maybe a handful of games of Cuddyer at RF. The rest of us know that Cuddyer (and Kubel) did not have that ball either... Cuddyer missed many similar balls in the past. Span overplayed too and if he did not break but was where he was supposed to be that wouldn't have been a triple either.

Land Of 10,000 Beasts
04-06-2012, 10:16 PM
You took the words from my mouth. I know his arm is below average, but Ben Revere should be out there. If he makes that catch, the momentum of the game would have been changed, and I'm pretty sure Revere would have made that catch with ease.

Boom Boom
04-06-2012, 10:58 PM
I think the outfield defense may be a bit better with Plouffe in right, and I'll take him there over Revere. The only better option is Revere in center and Span in right, but Gardy doesn't want to move Span.

Riverbrian
04-07-2012, 12:01 AM
If batters don't swing and miss...you have to catch the ball. Do you really like the odds of that with Willingham and Doumit both in the OF. A big Target field OF for half the games. This park and pitching staff demands speed and defense.

Shane Wahl
04-07-2012, 01:08 AM
Still . . . who cares about Doumit's non-defense? This is only an issue because Josh Willingham cannot make a simple move from LF to RF. It's astounding that a manager and general manager would allow that.

USAFChief
04-07-2012, 01:29 AM
If you want to improve the OF defense (which I don't happen to think is that big of an issue, either for the Twins in the specific or to be a winning baseball team in general), Joe Benson improves the OF defense more than any current option, including Ben Revere.

Revere, by the way, just transfers the weakness from corner OF to another spot in the lineup.

Seth Stohs
04-07-2012, 01:39 AM
In a given game, how often will there be a ball hit that Doumit (or Plouffe, or Parmelee) don't get to or don't catch that Revere would? My guess is about once a week. How often will Doumit (or Plouffe, or Parmelee) do something more offensively than Ben Revere? Probably 4-5?

That's not a knock on Revere, and it's not in any way claiming that defense isn't important. It's saying that Doumit likely catches that ball 9 out of 10 times. That was ugly, but it shouldn't hide the general principle.

The again, I agree that Willingham should be in RF with Span in CF and Plouffe/Revere in LF..

Riverbrian
04-07-2012, 08:55 AM
In a given game, how often will there be a ball hit that Doumit (or Plouffe, or Parmelee) don't get to or don't catch that Revere would? My guess is about once a week. How often will Doumit (or Plouffe, or Parmelee) do something more offensively than Ben Revere? Probably 4-5?

That's not a knock on Revere, and it's not in any way claiming that defense isn't important. It's saying that Doumit likely catches that ball 9 out of 10 times. That was ugly, but it shouldn't hide the general principle.

The again, I agree that Willingham should be in RF with Span in CF and Plouffe/Revere in LF..

First off... Seth I read your stuff all the time. Keep up the good work. I appreciate what you do immensely.

2nd... you of all people should know that a career .326 hitter in the minors is not an offensively liability. To assume Plouffe is a better offensive option because he may hit 10 homers is someplace I can't go.

3rd... Talking about Revere's arm is fair game. Everything else is a ballplayer. 34 steals last year and a decent average. Now just teach this 5 8 guy to draw a walk and look out. He's a kid with wonderful potential. Play him. He earned the LF job.

spideyo
04-07-2012, 09:20 AM
I would bet leaving Willingham in LF had less to do with his unwillingness to move, than it was keeping a spot open the they could put Doumit, Plouffe, and Parmalee in.

And I personally don't like the idea that it's worth sacrificing defense for a good bat. Even the best batters get hits less than 4 out of every 10 at bats. Even 1 or 2 flyballs that don't get caught could lose a game for us.

jimbo92107
04-07-2012, 09:46 AM
The real shame of it is that Denard Span is a fantastic right fielder. Never saw a guy patrol the RF sideline better than he did, and his arm from there seems stronger, probably because he positions himself really well to move forward into catches. Span's range and positioning in right brought a new dimension to that area. When Joe Benson arrives, that's where Span should go.

In fact, seeing what we did yesterday should make it even more urgent to get Benson into the mix for his defense. We didn't exactly see a lumber company out there, and Joe Benson's bat is no worse than...oh well, small sample size...

spideyo
04-07-2012, 10:42 AM
Still don't understand the love affair with Joe Benson. Is it the hair?

The Greatest Poster Alive
04-07-2012, 10:45 AM
You took the words from my mouth. I know his arm is below average, but Ben Revere should be out there. If he makes that catch, the momentum of the game would have been changed, and I'm pretty sure Revere would have made that catch with ease.

Sure but he would have 10 hopped it to the cutoff man.

minn55441
04-07-2012, 10:46 AM
A major league outfielder has to make that catch. I like the idea of getting Doumit's bat in the lineup, but the trade off is what we all saw yesterday. We can't afford to give away runs. Small sample size, but I think we are just seeing the beginning of what will become all to common this year. Why didn't the Pirates try and retain him?

His defense isn't good enough at any one position to stay in the lineup, and now with no DH spot open we are in the same boat the Pirates were in when trying to find bats for him.

The Greatest Poster Alive
04-07-2012, 10:51 AM
First off... Seth I read your stuff all the time. Keep up the good work. I appreciate what you do immensely.

2nd... you of all people should know that a career .326 hitter in the minors is not an offensively liability. To assume Plouffe is a better offensive option because he may hit 10 homers is someplace I can't go.

3rd... Talking about Revere's arm is fair game. Everything else is a ballplayer. 34 steals last year and a decent average. Now just teach this 5 8 guy to draw a walk and look out. He's a kid with wonderful potential. Play him. He earned the LF job.

Revere's hitting ability has not translated into the majors yet. He has never earned a starting job.

Plouffe is a better hitter than you're giving him credit for. He played 81 games last season and hit 8 HR... simple math puts a fair projection for Plouffe at 15-16 on a full season.

Neinstein
04-07-2012, 11:10 AM
At that time of day, in Camden Yards, he's looking into the sun.
It looks so horrible that the ball actually taps his glove, but I'm amazed that he almost made that catch at all.
Hope it doesn't continue down the road. Target field has the same angle as Camden Yards.
Yes, Doumit is not a great OF, but it could have happened to anyone. so.. moving forward, we want to see his bat even out the runs some how.

silverslugger
04-07-2012, 11:19 AM
I like Doumit on the team and like him as our backup catcher. I think the real question here isn't so much whether it should be Revere or Doumit in RF. Gardy has already come out and stated that if Doumit starts at a position other than C, then he stays in the game so we don't lose our backup. But rather, is Doumit's bat that much better than Plouffe's bat considering Plouffe with his range and arm could probably become that much better than Doumit defensively. Let's face it, both are learning to play RF on the fly while serving on an MLB roster. I'd rather have Plouffe doing the learning as my regular RF, not Doumit. Doumit is an asset, as our backup catcher who will catch 2-3 games per week. His bat isn't that much better than Plouffe, or Hughes for that matter.

Seth Stohs
04-07-2012, 11:31 AM
John brought this up a month ago, and I may have changed my mind on it now. If Revere isn't going to play pretty much every day (and I don't count pinch-running as playing, even though it is, but you know what i mean), he should be in Rochester. His minor league numbers indicate that he can eventually hit for better average, which will naturally bring up the OBP. He made things happen last year despit pretty poor offensive numbers. Consider he's a little younger than Benson and Parmelee and Dozier, the idea that he completely is what he is probably isn't fair yet. I don't think he's got a ton of upside, but if he can become what Juan Pierre was a decade ago, that's pretty valuable. But the decision to move Willingham means that Revere sits.

USAFChief
04-07-2012, 12:19 PM
Still don't understand the love affair with Joe Benson. Is it the hair?

Still don't understand the love affair with Ben Revere. Is it the smile?

CDog
04-07-2012, 12:36 PM
Still . . . who cares about Doumit's non-defense? This is only an issue because Josh Willingham cannot make a simple move from LF to RF. It's astounding that a manager and general manager would allow that.

Still waiting for any evidence of anybody saying that Willingham was unwilling or unable to move.

Teflon
04-07-2012, 12:48 PM
Perhaps I was spoiled by the soul patrol, but an outfield with enough range to cut off the ball in the gaps and to catch up to fly balls in foul territory helps turn non-serviceable pitchers into serviceable pitchers. (How else do you explain Carlos Silva?) The Twins dilema is they have propensity of players best suited for DH at-bats that now won't be happening because of Morneau's delicate cranium. I don't think you have to play the hand you're dealt. Isn't this where you try to address your needs by making a trade? I watched the Diamondbacks-Giants game last night and Arizona has put a pretty decent outfielder on the bench (Gerardo Parra) to give Jason Kubel at-bats. Parra would be a great addition. He's an elite defender and a decent-enough hitter to merit a spot in the lineup. Parra wouldn't block Benson's or Hicks' advancement because Willingham is not a long-term solution. (And Willingham can always DH once Justin recovers, can't he?) I'd be on the phone finding out what Arizona wants in trade.

silverslugger
04-07-2012, 01:04 PM
Historically, how often do trade occur in April and May? I certainly don't remember many in April. To me, if a team were going to trade to address a perceived need, it would've been during ST. I think most clubs are going to give their current roster 50 games or so to see where they are at before considering trades, unless the injury bug hits. Also, per Arizona, if they are giving at bats to Kubel over a more defensive outfielder then they are coming at it from the same philosophy as our Twins, so to speak.

Neinstein
04-07-2012, 01:19 PM
I was very happy with Carroll's defensive play in game 1. Hope to see many more nice plays throughout the year.

Teflon
04-07-2012, 01:33 PM
In Spring Training they thought Morneau would play first, Doumit would DH, Willingham would play RF, and some combination of Revere and Plouffe would play left. Once they decided Morneau would be the primary DH and Willingham would play left, however, RF became more of a question because of their reluctance to put Revere out there. By the way, there's no MLB rule against making trades in April or May. (I looked it up.) Not doing it because, well, it's just not done, is an argument without any actual justification. Same as saying that because the Diamondbacks are valuing Kubel's offense over Parra's glove, that's the way it should be. Arizona already has two other pretty good defenders in ther outfield in Upton and Young so can more afford to make room for a bat. They also have a pitching staff in Kennedy, Hudson, and Collmenter that misses a lot more bats than the Twins do.

Riverbrian
04-07-2012, 01:53 PM
Revere's hitting ability has not translated into the majors yet. He has never earned a starting job.

Plouffe is a better hitter than you're giving him credit for. He played 81 games last season and hit 8 HR... simple math puts a fair projection for Plouffe at 15-16 on a full season.

If you double Plouffes home run production using simple math. Don't conveniently forget to double his strikeout total. That would be 71 k's to 135 to 145 and that .238 average looms large. Has Revere earned a job with Angels... I'd say no but he was a spark plug last year and he earned it with the Twins.

USAFChief
04-07-2012, 02:06 PM
I don't believe corner OF defense is worth downgrading offensively. Teams have stuck less-than-great defensive outfielders in the corners for a century and a half, and done just fine. Boston won 2 WS with Manny Ramirez in LF. The number of fly balls that a Ben Revere would catch vs a Ryan Doumit isn't very significant over the course of a season. Yesterday the sun probably had as much to do with him not catching that ball as range did, and there's no guarantee Revere (or any outfielder) catches that ball either. In the specific case of Revere, his arm would cost at least a portion of the runs his range might save anyway.

I would also remind everyone the Twins defense saved Pavano a couple baserunners, and at least one run yesterday. Willingham saved a run with a throw from LF that Revere probably doesn't make, and Carroll's over the shoulder catch on a popup was a legitimately major league play. Parmalee made a nice play on a ground ball up the line. So let's stop pretending that defense cost the Twins a game yesterday.

I would also remind those clamoring for Ben Revere, that if we're going to make sweeping generalizations based off one game samples, that every run scored in yesterday's game involved an XBH. I, for one, do not want to see Ben Revere's bat in the lineup on an every day basis. One more weak spot, IMO.

coddlenomore
04-07-2012, 02:14 PM
Funny Mr.Stohs, using that logic, how could you have ever defended Drew Butera as a ML catcher and not seem to be bothered by his complete lack of any sort of offensive ability?

Riverbrian
04-07-2012, 03:03 PM
I don't believe corner OF defense is worth downgrading offensively. Teams have stuck less-than-great defensive outfielders in the corners for a century and a half, and done just fine. Boston won 2 WS with Manny Ramirez in LF. The number of fly balls that a Ben Revere would catch vs a Ryan Doumit isn't very significant over the course of a season. Yesterday the sun probably had as much to do with him not catching that ball as range did, and there's no guarantee Revere (or any outfielder) catches that ball either. In the specific case of Revere, his arm would cost at least a portion of the runs his range might save anyway.

I would also remind everyone the Twins defense saved Pavano a couple baserunners, and at least one run yesterday. Willingham saved a run with a throw from LF that Revere probably doesn't make, and Carroll's over the shoulder catch on a popup was a legitimately major league play. Parmalee made a nice play on a ground ball up the line. So let's stop pretending that defense cost the Twins a game yesterday.

I would also remind those clamoring for Ben Revere, that if we're going to make sweeping generalizations based off one game samples, that every run scored in yesterday's game involved an XBH. I, for one, do not want to see Ben Revere's bat in the lineup on an every day basis. One more weak spot, IMO.

A couple of things

#1 I don't care if Doumit dropped that ball in RF. It proves nothing and isn't related to my personal point. On the subject of Doumits defense. He's a career .271 who routinely hits double figures in dingers and his primary position is catcher. If he could play defense at all. Those numbers are worth money at the C position. He can't play defense and that is why he has failed to hold a starting job with the Pirates who have been one of the worst teams in baseball. It's not like Doumit had to beat out Johnny Bench for a job. As an OF. He's a career .271 hitter who can maybe hit 20 dingers if he stays healthy. Guess what if Doumit and Plouffe are the RF tandem. You have already sacrificed offense. So... You better be able to go get it in the field.

#2. I hope you are not implying that we have a 2004 version of Manny Ramirez in this current Twins lineup. If we have someone who hits like that. Yeah go ahead and let the ball scoot through the gaps for extra bases on occasion. I don't see any of the current Twins OF candidates hitting .300 plus with 40 home runs. We don't have that... of course that could just be my opinion. Maybe Plouffe will go nuts.

#3. Using your World Series point. Need I remind you that the hated White Sox won the 2005 World Series with Scott Podzednik and beat the Astros with Willy Taveres.

#4 maybe it's once a week or twice a week or 5 times a week that OF defense comes into play. Please also consider that it's about 27 weeks in a baseball season. Clamoring for the guy who will hit 14 homers is a round tripper every two weeks.

#5 when in doubt... Take the guy with world class speed and career .300 average in the minors. The twins have tons of players capable of 15 homers with regular at bats. Unfortunely the majority of them are capable of hitting south of .250.

The Greatest Poster Alive
04-07-2012, 11:19 PM
A couple of things

#1 I don't care if Doumit dropped that ball in RF. It proves nothing and isn't related to my personal point. On the subject of Doumits defense. He's a career .271 who routinely hits double figures in dingers and his primary position is catcher. If he could play defense at all. Those numbers are worth money at the C position. He can't play defense and that is why he has failed to hold a starting job with the Pirates who have been one of the worst teams in baseball. It's not like Doumit had to beat out Johnny Bench for a job. As an OF. He's a career .271 hitter who can maybe hit 20 dingers if he stays healthy. Guess what if Doumit and Plouffe are the RF tandem. You have already sacrificed offense. So... You better be able to go get it in the field.

#2. I hope you are not implying that we have a 2004 version of Manny Ramirez in this current Twins lineup. If we have someone who hits like that. Yeah go ahead and let the ball scoot through the gaps for extra bases on occasion. I don't see any of the current Twins OF candidates hitting .300 plus with 40 home runs. We don't have that... of course that could just be my opinion. Maybe Plouffe will go nuts.

#3. Using your World Series point. Need I remind you that the hated White Sox won the 2005 World Series with Scott Podzednik and beat the Astros with Willy Taveres.

#4 maybe it's once a week or twice a week or 5 times a week that OF defense comes into play. Please also consider that it's about 27 weeks in a baseball season. Clamoring for the guy who will hit 14 homers is a round tripper every two weeks.

#5 when in doubt... Take the guy with world class speed and career .300 average in the minors. The twins have tons of players capable of 15 homers with regular at bats. Unfortunely the majority of them are capable of hitting south of .250.

You're really overrating revere in this post. Revere hit an empty 300 and OPS'd barely above .600. That's tolerable from a middle infielder with elite defense... but not out of a corner outfielder.

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 12:48 AM
You're really overrating revere in this post. Revere hit an empty 300 and OPS'd barely above .600. That's tolerable from a middle infielder with elite defense... but not out of a corner outfielder.

lol... Revere has hit 5 home runs in 5 or 6 years of professional ball. How high do you think his OPS should be in consideration of his skill sets.

Sometimes it's not about the ability to clear the fences. Sometimes it simply about not making outs on offense and making outs on defense.

Sometimes it's about running face first into the wall and robbing Vlad and showing casual players like Velencia and Delmon Young how it's done.

Sometimes it's about beating a ball into the ground and forcing the SS to bobble or throw it away because he has to damn well hurry.

Sometimes it's about the attention the pitcher has to pay to someone like that sitting on 1st base taking a lead and the fastball he has to deliver to the next better because he can't throw anything off speed.

Please understand that I don't believe they should start working on the Ben Revere bust at Cooperstown. He is what he is. I just think that his play as a whole is getting under valued and I think he has earned a starting job and he'd have it if Mornaeu could play 1B and Revere in LF would help us win games.

My point is also not so much about Revere as its about the grasping on to someone with 15 home run potential and ignoring the fact that 15 home run potential guys are everywhere and nothing special.

If the best you can do is 15 home runs. A dinger every two weeks. Give me range speed and effort to mix in some of that 15 dinger power.

This team as a whole does not have enough overall hitting or overall pitching to survive poor range, bad gloves or lack of effort.

I'm not comfortable with Willingham and Doumit combining to handle two thirds of the spacious Target OF with a pitching staff that pitches to contact.

Teflon
04-08-2012, 10:46 AM
This team as a whole does not have enough overall hitting or overall pitching to survive poor range, bad gloves or lack of effort.

I'm not comfortable with Willingham and Doumit combining to handle two thirds of the spacious Target OF with a pitching staff that pitches to contact.

Well said. I heard Gardy say this morning that he'll be reluctant to sub for Doumit defensively in-game in RF because then he loses his back-up catcher. Great strategy, huh?

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 10:58 AM
Well said. I heard Gardy say this morning that he'll be reluctant to sub for Doumit defensively in-game in RF because then he loses his back-up catcher. Great strategy, huh?

Teflon... It drives me personally crazy. In the odd chance that Mauer goes down with an injury and Doumit has been taken out. It will be late in the game. Put the pads on Willingham for an inning and call up Towles for tomorrow.

If it worries you so much. Start working with Plouffe on footwork behind the plate, calling pitches and have him spend some time in the film room and charting pitches. PREPARE FOR IT if it worries you.

If Doumit or Mauer is DH'ing and the catcher gets hurt. Put the DH behind the plate and let the pitcher bat for the rest of the game. Let him swing or pinch hit for him when his spot in the lineup comes around and call up Towles for tomorrow.

I'm not a Gardy hater but this overblown fear of running out of catchers is a hole in his game.

The Greatest Poster Alive
04-08-2012, 12:15 PM
lol... Revere has hit 5 home runs in 5 or 6 years of professional ball. How high do you think his OPS should be in consideration of his skill sets.

Sometimes it's not about the ability to clear the fences. Sometimes it simply about not making outs on offense and making outs on defense.

Sometimes it's about running face first into the wall and robbing Vlad and showing casual players like Velencia and Delmon Young how it's done.

Sometimes it's about beating a ball into the ground and forcing the SS to bobble or throw it away because he has to damn well hurry.

Sometimes it's about the attention the pitcher has to pay to someone like that sitting on 1st base taking a lead and the fastball he has to deliver to the next better because he can't throw anything off speed.

Please understand that I don't believe they should start working on the Ben Revere bust at Cooperstown. He is what he is. I just think that his play as a whole is getting under valued and I think he has earned a starting job and he'd have it if Mornaeu could play 1B and Revere in LF would help us win games.

My point is also not so much about Revere as its about the grasping on to someone with 15 home run potential and ignoring the fact that 15 home run potential guys are everywhere and nothing special.

If the best you can do is 15 home runs. A dinger every two weeks. Give me range speed and effort to mix in some of that 15 dinger power.

This team as a whole does not have enough overall hitting or overall pitching to survive poor range, bad gloves or lack of effort.

I'm not comfortable with Willingham and Doumit combining to handle two thirds of the spacious Target OF with a pitching staff that pitches to contact.

OPS is not only affected by HR's. It also takes into account extra base hits. A player with his speed should be hitting more doubles and triples, but he simply isn't. The vast majority of his game is infield singles, and that simply isn't sustainable. Ben Revere is a 4th outfielder at best, I'm glad that's the position he's been given this season.

USAFChief
04-08-2012, 03:18 PM
OPS is not only affected by HR's. It also takes into account extra base hits. A player with his speed should be hitting more doubles and triples, but he simply isn't. The vast majority of his game is infield singles, and that simply isn't sustainable. Ben Revere is a 4th outfielder at best, I'm glad that's the position he's been given this season.

One gets the impression some posters here think batting average is not only the best, but the ONLY measure of a players offensive contributions.

edavis0308
04-08-2012, 03:32 PM
lol... Revere has hit 5 home runs in 5 or 6 years of professional ball. How high do you think his OPS should be in consideration of his skill sets.

Sometimes it's not about the ability to clear the fences. Sometimes it simply about not making outs on offense and making outs on defense.

Sometimes it's about running face first into the wall and robbing Vlad and showing casual players like Velencia and Delmon Young how it's done.

Sometimes it's about beating a ball into the ground and forcing the SS to bobble or throw it away because he has to damn well hurry.

Sometimes it's about the attention the pitcher has to pay to someone like that sitting on 1st base taking a lead and the fastball he has to deliver to the next better because he can't throw anything off speed.

Please understand that I don't believe they should start working on the Ben Revere bust at Cooperstown. He is what he is. I just think that his play as a whole is getting under valued and I think he has earned a starting job and he'd have it if Mornaeu could play 1B and Revere in LF would help us win games.

My point is also not so much about Revere as its about the grasping on to someone with 15 home run potential and ignoring the fact that 15 home run potential guys are everywhere and nothing special.

If the best you can do is 15 home runs. A dinger every two weeks. Give me range speed and effort to mix in some of that 15 dinger power.

This team as a whole does not have enough overall hitting or overall pitching to survive poor range, bad gloves or lack of effort.

I'm not comfortable with Willingham and Doumit combining to handle two thirds of the spacious Target OF with a pitching staff that pitches to contact.

Do you even know what his major league OBP is?

VodkaDave
04-08-2012, 03:33 PM
Revere is a 4th OF most likely, and if he can somehow figure out a way to hit .320 with a few doubles and 45+ SB, then he could be a somewhat decent option at CF.
However, you can't be running him out there in RF/LF on a regular basis.

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 05:41 PM
Do you even know what his major league OBP is?

Yes .304 and it's a small sample size.
.385 in the minors with a much larger sample size.

OPS .606 in the Majors and .793 in the Minors

I also know that OPS is Slugging Percentage plus on base percentage and that means not just home runs. It's total bases and it's the power hitters that typcially do well in that Catagory and Revere is not a power hitter and probably never will be so using that stat to judge him is a little unfair although his OPS in the Minors is higher then both Plouffe and Parmelee and they are supposed to be power hitters.

I know he needs to draw more walks based on last year but being that he is the closest thing to Eddie Gaedel in the major leagues today. I firmly believe that is something that will be learned down the line and be another club in his bag.

I also know that there is more to baseball then Batting Average. I also know that there is value in someone who has a good contact rate and can stretch singles, walks and errors into two bases with the stolen base and that won't show up in the OPS.

I know what all the stats mean. They have value but to reduce the game and opinions based upon them as your sole reference is a mistake. I'm sorry Bill James but that is true.

Sometimes you just need a spark plug and Revere has that potential. Would I start Revere in the corner outfield over Josh Hamilton. No I would not. We don't have Josh Hamilton. We have Ryan Doumit with a .334 On Base percentage and career OPS of .775 and a pitching staff that feels overworked if they have to throw a ton of pitches to strike out batters so they let them hit the ball at Gardy and Rick Anderson's instruction.

With our roster... I would start Ben Revere and I wouldn't think twice about it. Those who disagree with me are looking for a different type of ball player and that's OK... However I do believe that the type of ball player you are looking for... Does not exist on this current Twins Roster.

Also keep in mind... The White Sox tried to load up on the long ball and failed. The Tigers tried it before as well and failed. The Piranhas from Minnesota beat them each time. You need a combination. Good Pitchers can take away your power and it's nice to have guys like Revere scrap something out in those situations. Play some little ball... defend and move the runners over when the chance presents itself and win a one run game with a sac fly against a pitcher that is dealing.

It's not my intention to denegrate Doumit, Plouffe or anyone on the Twins team. I'm being forced to by defending Revere. No matter what... I'm glad he is with us. I'm pulling for him and everyone. If Plouffe can carry over his batting from Rochester last year to the major league level. I'll be the first guy to say start him and put Revere on the bench. Until then... Revere is my guy.


Signed Respectfully

Riverbrian

VodkaDave
04-08-2012, 07:30 PM
Yes .304 and it's a small sample size.
.385 in the minors with a much larger sample size.

OPS .606 in the Majors and .793 in the Minors



632 PA isn't exactly a small sample size. And his OPS outside of rookie ball and low A was .728 and decreased every single level he progressed. The reason this happened was because MLB MI > AAA MI > AA MI > A+ MI > A MI >ROOKIE BALL MI

The bull**** infield hits he was getting against raw 17-19 year olds weren't happening as he moved up levels.
I for one think Revere has the potential to become a surprisingly solid player, but to pretend that his track record indicates he should automatically get the benefit of the doubt at the plate is highly misguided.

As mentioned above, Revere has to figure out a way to hit with some more pop, and increase his average to the .320 or so range in the majors to even be considered a close to average every day player.

Also, you say Revere's . 606 OPS isn't a big deal, then Dismiss Doumits .775 a few sentences later. a .175 difference in OPS is pretty significant.

The Greatest Poster Alive
04-08-2012, 08:09 PM
632 PA isn't exactly a small sample size. And his OPS outside of rookie ball and low A was .728 and decreased every single level he progressed. The reason this happened was because MLB MI > AAA MI > AA MI > A+ MI > A MI >ROOKIE BALL MI

The bull**** infield hits he was getting against raw 17-19 year olds weren't happening as he moved up levels.
I for one think Revere has the potential to become a surprisingly solid player, but to pretend that his track record indicates he should automatically get the benefit of the doubt at the plate is highly misguided.

As mentioned above, Revere has to figure out a way to hit with some more pop, and increase his average to the .320 or so range in the majors to even be considered a close to average every day player.

Also, you say Revere's . 606 OPS isn't a big deal, then Dismiss Doumits .775 a few sentences later. a .175 difference in OPS is pretty significant.

Exactly. Revere is not a home run hitter, nor does he need to become one. If he hits one this season I'll be pleasantly surprised. But if Revere is going to be a starter, specifically one at a corner outfield spot, he needs to hit the ball to the outfield more. Revere is fun to watch, and you can tell he plays hard every game, but that alone doesn't make you a starter at a position that is typically reserved for your better hitters in the lineup.

And to be clear, I'm not a huge fan of doumit or plouffe, but their bats represent a significant improvement over revere's at this moment.

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 08:52 PM
I'm not saying Revere is a slam dunk. I'm saying he's the best of our current options. Its actually 484 PA and that is a small sample size especially since he's facing Verlander and Bruce Chen now. It's not even a year of work. Only the absolute elite rookies come flying out of the box so please give the kid a break. He's young... Young players improve or they are forced to change careers. Saying he has to hit .320 to earn his job is flat out misguided but I respect your right to say it and his track record suggests that he just might do that.

I'm only dismissing Doumits OPS because he's a vet and what he is... has been established. Im happy with Doumit in a Twins uniform. We need the help. I just don't buy the argument that he hits enough to risk the range and defensive ability with our pitching staff and questionable overall Twins offensive potential. A once a week ball that doesn't get cut off or caught could be 3 runs and we can't afford 3 runs. Not THIS TEAM. We are not the Rangers and everyone here knows that. That's my argument and I stand by it so go ahead and throw every stat at me. I know what they mean and It means nothing because Revere played last year for the first time and I thought he played well and my expectations of the rookie were realistic.

I've seen too many rookies come up and get eaten alive only to ride it out and become ballplayers a couple of years later. Revere was a rookie last year and he didnt get eaten alive. He just isn't your kinda ballplayer. I've been forced to defend the little guy and his value and potential. It has turned into this Revere man crush from me and in reality I would relegate Revere to my bench the minute Mike Trout or Corey Hart is traded for.

You can argue stats with me all day long... lol... Maybe Revere starts gapping some balls in the weeks, months or years to follow. Maybe he just keeps beating out bull**** IF singles. I don't care. Either way he's on base and he is manning a corner and preventing extra base hits with his wheels and glove. His stats are fine... Better than Plouffe or Parmelee overall so far but that isn't the point.

Baseball is more than stats that's the point. There is room for power and there is room for speed. Don't hold the
lack of speed against Adrian Gonzalez and don't hold the lack of power against Michael Bourn.

If you want to overlook defense and the effect on stats... Look at the performance of Mr. Velencia yesterday. No errors were charged to him but his bad defense on two plays cost the Twins and Liriano 3 runs. Lirianos ERA went from 4.50 to 11.25 because of Danny. This stuff happens all the time and pitchers ERA's are effected by it. The Twins defense was unwatchable last year and all of our starters stats were inflated as a result. The easiest way to lose a game is to give the opponent extra outs. Defense is huge... From a morale and scoreboard standpoint and if you don't realize that, you need to watch the game and take your nose out of the stats for a second... I know that last line sounded snotty but I do say that respectfully...

You can sacrifice defense for hitting but you gotta have the hitting to do it. We don't!!! That's the point. The point really isn't Revere.

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 09:17 PM
This is just a discussion and opposite points of view. I'm hopeful that everyone takes the discussion in that spirit. I want vodkadave and the greatest poster alive to realize that I'm on your side even if I'm against your side.

edavis0308
04-08-2012, 09:30 PM
I think our argument with your point is that you are stating that Revere has the best chance of not making outs at the best rate at the major league level, whereas the counter argument is that he has not demonstrated to do that in a year's worth of plate appearances in the majors yet. He might and probably will eventually, but he hasn't yet.

VodkaDave
04-08-2012, 09:37 PM
This is just a discussion and opposite points of view. I'm hopeful that everyone takes the discussion in that spirit. I want vodkadave and the greatest poster alive to realize that I'm on your side even if I'm against your side.

Oh yeah totally, believe me I think the best thing for this team would be for Revere to prove to be a capable every day outfielder (hitting wise) that would allow us to have two above average options at CF and allow us to trade one of them (prob Span) for some pitching help or INF help.

The thing is out of our current 1st, DH and OF options currently "ahead" of Revere on the depth chart: Willingham, Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and Span all have had pretty significant injury issues over the past 2 years or so. So more likely then not Revere will get a chance for at least another 350-400 PA this year and we should know where he stands.

Just at this point I am pretty hesitant on Revere's long term potential to be an everyday player (more so at an important offensive position like RF or LF) If you had an INF of Cano, Jeter, A-Rod and Tex then maybe you can live with a sub .700 in RF, but on this current team the Twins need bats in the corner OF. With all that said, I think Revere has a pretty decent career ahead of himself one way or another, guys like Pierre have had a nice little career as a role player/bench guy/occasional stop gap starter.

If by some reason Willingham, Doumit, Span, Morneau (DH spot), Mauer (every day catcher) all stay healthy and effective throughout the year then we have a really good problem on our hands :)

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 09:55 PM
I think our argument with your point is that you are stating that Revere has the best chance of not making outs at the best rate at the major league level, whereas the counter argument is that he has not demonstrated to do that in a year's worth of plate appearances in the majors yet. He might and probably will eventually, but he hasn't yet.

Im cool with that. I also believe that Revere hasn't proven anything. He played well last year but so did Velencia two years ago.

I believe that Doumit has proven what he can do and it isn't enough to negate the defensive risk. I like Doumit at DH and backup catcher and even backup OF and 1B on occasion. Play him just don't kill your OF range potential for a 15 dinger guy when Revere is in the dugout.

Given the choice... Revere is my guy because he has .300 potential based on his contact rate speed and minor league track record. 50 Stolen base potential based on 34 steals in roughly two thirds of a season and I believe he can improve his walk rate and most importantly... The ball is gonna get knocked around the park and we need guys who can chase them down and provide defensive inspiration(which can be infectious) for what looked last year like a defense stuck in mud.

In a nutshell...I believe Revere has earned the starting job based on a decent rookie performance last year set against a backdrop of the worst baseball played since Calvin Griffith owned the team and sold everyone. I do not believe that Terry Ryan has brought in a better option. Revere hasn't earned the job yet nor has he played badly enough to have it ripped from his hands either.

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 10:12 PM
Oh yeah totally, believe me I think the best thing for this team would be for Revere to prove to be a capable every day outfielder (hitting wise) that would allow us to have two above average options at CF and allow us to trade one of them (prob Span) for some pitching help or INF help.The thing is out of our current 1st, DH and OF options currently "ahead" of Revere on the depth chart: Willingham, Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and Span all have had pretty significant injury issues over the past 2 years or so. So more likely then not Revere will get a chance for at least another 350-400 PA this year and we should know where he stands.Just at this point I am pretty hesitant on Revere's long term potential to be an everyday player (more so at an important offensive position like RF or LF) If you had an INF of Cano, Jeter, A-Rod and Tex then maybe you can live with a sub .700 in RF, but on this current team the Twins need bats in the corner OF. With all that said, I think Revere has a pretty decent career ahead of himself one way or another, guys like Pierre have had a nice little career as a role player/bench guy/occasional stop gap starter.If by some reason Willingham, Doumit, Span, Morneau (DH spot), Mauer (every day catcher) all stay healthy and effective throughout the year then we have a really good problem on our hands :)I get the Cano point. I dont believe certains positions have to be a certain type of hitter. In a ballpark like target field I am not afraid to lineup Revere and Span together side by side. I remember Lonnie Smirh and Willie Wilson giving the Twins fits in 1985 and using that formula all the way to the World Series. I'm not saying that will happen this year if Gardy takes my advice tho lol... The trade bait is another angle and I agree 100 percent. Look what the Braves paid for Bourn last year. Actually the Astros got hosed but the Braves wanted Bourn. There are teams that value speed and really need it. We have holes to fill.

CDog
04-08-2012, 10:42 PM
OPS is not only affected by HR's. It also takes into account extra base hits. A player with his speed should be hitting more doubles and triples, but he simply isn't. The vast majority of his game is infield singles, and that simply isn't sustainable. Ben Revere is a 4th outfielder at best, I'm glad that's the position he's been given this season.

Vast majority? Really? If your argument relies on telling fibs, it's not likely a well-constructed one.

VodkaDave
04-08-2012, 11:00 PM
Vast majority? Really? If your argument relies on telling fibs, it's not likely a well-constructed one.
From a quick google search:
While playing around with Fangraphs, I found quite an interesting statistic. Going back to 2001 (as far back as FanGraphs’ batted ball data goes) among all players with at least 450 plate appearances in a season, Ben Revere holds the record (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=120&type=2&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&players=0&sort=3,d) for most ground balls per fly ball at 5.91. His closest competition? Luis Castillo who posted a 4.13 mark in 2005.

While Ben Revere is an exciting player, he is also hitting groundballs at an unheard of rate. Just take a look at his hit chart from Bill James’ Baseball IQ:
http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxcyao0jkP1qa12tx.png

Looks like a lot of ground balls in the infield (and a TON to the pitcher)

CDog
04-08-2012, 11:20 PM
Revere's Infield Hit % is also on fangraphs. It's not the vast majority of them. Or a majority at all. Or a third of them. Or a quarter. Or a fifth. Or...

Riverbrian
04-08-2012, 11:21 PM
From a quick google search:
While playing around with Fangraphs, I found quite an interesting statistic. Going back to 2001 (as far back as FanGraphs’ batted ball data goes) among all players with at least 450 plate appearances in a season, Ben Revere holds the record (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=120&type=2&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&players=0&sort=3,d) for most ground balls per fly ball at 5.91. His closest competition? Luis Castillo who posted a 4.13 mark in 2005.

While Ben Revere is an exciting player, he is also hitting groundballs at an unheard of rate. Just take a look at his hit chart from Bill James’ Baseball IQ:
http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxcyao0jkP1qa12tx.png

Looks like a lot of ground balls in the infield (and a TON to the pitcher)

Im sure you know that coaches at all levels tell players with speed like Ben has and power like Ben has to hit the ball on the ground. Looks to me like a coachable kid who listens. lol...

Even better, I love the concentration of action up the middle. That explains the consistent .300 batting average. I'm disappointed that there isn't any blue around the 500 foot line!

Seriously... Not to speak for Cdog... I think it was the word hits... Assuming base hits that he was questioning. If the ball scoots through the infield it's not an infield hit. I don't believe the vast majority of his base hits were infield hits either. It maybe a question of phrasing.

StormJH1
04-09-2012, 08:47 AM
Calling Doumit a "super utility" player is kind of like using that term for Adam Dunn or Mat Gamel. He's actually a player without a position that has hit well enough in short bursts to allow him to pretend to play a variety of different positions. He's also a product of playing for a bad team in the NL where the DH isn't an option...they HAD to find a position for him to try and get some degree of help to his offense, that doesn't mean he can actually PLAY any of those positions.

The defense sucked all weekend - and for all the talk about Carroll, his glove was actually quite good (the bat...not so much). Doumit is the opposite problem: He's going to suck in the field, but the problem isn't as much that as the fact that his bat isn't good enough to put up with this level of defense at any of these positions.

When I said all winter that I didn't like the Doumit signing too much, that was under the assumption that Butera was on a "scholarship" and we were carrying 3 catchers for sure. With that not happening (at least for now...could change obviously), it's pretty terrifying to have Doumit catching any time Mauer is getting a break. The double steal yesterday was an example of that. The perception of a bad defensive catcher is almost as harmful as the bad defense itself.

I think Parmalee and Plouffe would probably also suck in RF, but there's also the possibility of a full season with 20 HR's there, and Doumit isn't going to offer that. Like him fine as a pinch hitter and emergency fill-in at various positions, but that's about it. With Parmalee the everyday 1B now, we probably should be doing Plouffe, Joe Benson, or some type of platoon in RF.

edavis0308
04-09-2012, 08:48 AM
The thing is though, is that you are referencing his minor league OBP like we should expect it to go up from the .310 last year. If he can't hit the ball out of the infield, no major league pitcher is going to throw him anything out of the zone to let him walk at any higher of a rate anyway. He is going to have to hit about 50 points higher on his average for him to make his OBP anything to remotely write home about.

diehardtwinsfan
04-09-2012, 08:58 AM
Since when was Revere a .300 hitter at the ML level?

StormJH1
04-09-2012, 09:00 AM
Exactly. Revere is not a home run hitter, nor does he need to become one. If he hits one this season I'll be pleasantly surprised. But if Revere is going to be a starter, specifically one at a corner outfield spot, he needs to hit the ball to the outfield more. Revere is fun to watch, and you can tell he plays hard every game, but that alone doesn't make you a starter at a position that is typically reserved for your better hitters in the lineup.

And to be clear, I'm not a huge fan of doumit or plouffe, but their bats represent a significant improvement over revere's at this moment.

Agree. There are really only two things that a right fielder has to be able to do, and Revere is terrible at both of them - (1) hit for some degree of power/run production and (2) Throw the ball well to cutoff/3rd base. It makes no sense to make Revere an everyday RF at this point in his development. If the "upside" of Revere's career is a Juan Pierre type player - he'll struggle to get everyday play as a LF, let alone in RF.

These decisions cannot be viewed in a bubble. It's easy to sit here and make judgments out of context about Revere such as "I like his defense". We're talking about right field. People have slammed guys like James Loney and Andre Ethier as not having enough power for their positions, but those are guys capable of hitting around .300 with 15+ HR power (and probably a lot of doubles). Revere hit 5 HR's in 380 minor league games, and you can look at him physically trying to play the game and figure out that's never going to change. He is what he is, and it was a bad reach by the Twins to take a guy like that in the first round.

VodkaDave
04-09-2012, 10:40 AM
When I said all winter that I didn't like the Doumit signing too much, that was under the assumption that Butera was on a "scholarship" and we were carrying 3 catchers for sure. With that not happening (at least for now...could change obviously), it's pretty terrifying to have Doumit catching any time Mauer is getting a break. The double steal yesterday was an example of that. The perception of a bad defensive catcher is almost as harmful as the bad defense itself.


The double steal wasn't on Doumit at all, it was on the pitcher for not even looking back. The guy was 5 feet from third when Doumit caught the ball. Doumit won't win any gold gloves behind the plate, but he is more then serviceable at C (esp for a back up), he was never really signed to be a RF/1B type guy, he was signed to be the back up C and the primary DH, however with Morneau being moved to DH and the emergence of Parmelee they are trying to mix and match to get his bat in the lineup.

Ultimately he will be "ok" in RF, below average no doubt but he won't be Delmon out there, and ideally his bat more then makes up for it.