PDA

View Full Version : Skipping High-A: Buxton?



PseudoSABR
06-11-2013, 02:36 AM
Is their precedence for skipping High-A in this organization, or any other? The idea of getting Sano, Rosario, and Buxton around each other seems particularly palatable to me.

snepp
06-11-2013, 03:39 AM
How about, from a purely selfish perspective on my part, leave him in Cedar Rapids the remainder of this season then send him directly to AA.


I won't get my trip to CR in before he gets promoted otherwise. :sadface:

diehardtwinsfan
06-11-2013, 07:00 AM
I'm guessing no... He's doing well, but I think he's going to be promoted to Fort Meyers shortly.

Thrylos
06-11-2013, 07:22 AM
No. In addition to being the first serious test for a hitter (A+ is a pitcher's league), it is a huge PR issue. And Fort Myers is a Twins' town.

2wins87
06-11-2013, 08:18 AM
The common conception is that the two biggest jumps in level for a prospect to make is from A+ to AA and from A to A+.

Doesn't really make sense to do them both at once. For any prospect.

Badsmerf
06-11-2013, 08:24 AM
This just makes no sense to happen. No need to rush Buxton right now. I'd rather the Twins were aggressive with Stewart and put him in Cedar Rapids this season.

cmathewson
06-11-2013, 08:36 AM
The only time it matters to have Sano, Rosario and Buxton on the same team is when they are all ready for the major league team. Fortunately, we won't have to wait too long to see that. I expect both Sano and Rosario to make their Twins debuts before the All-Star break in 2014. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton in a Twins uni in September of 2014.

mike wants wins
06-11-2013, 08:50 AM
I can't see the Twins doing this. Buxton will go to FTM this year, eventually. Next year he'll be in NB at some point. Beyond that, no idea.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-11-2013, 09:14 AM
Why do they need to be "around" each other? They all play diff positions, not like they are double play partners etc

Siehbiscuit
06-11-2013, 09:32 AM
Buxton will finish the year at Ft. Myers and start 2014 in AA.

MichiganTwins
06-11-2013, 09:43 AM
Buxton will finish the year at Ft. Myers and start 2014 in AA.
Yes, if he continues to rake and be compared to HOFers.

Boone
06-11-2013, 09:44 AM
I am very much against the idea of Buxton skipping A+, especially because the Florida State League is a pitcher's league.
That being said, Cardinals 2B prospect Kolten Wong (who made pretty much every top-100 list this past year in the 75-100 range) went from A-ball in 2011 as a 20 year old (.911 OPS) to AA-ball in 2012 as a 21 year old (.754 OPS) and is now in AAA as a 22 year old (.835 OPS).
It can, and has been done, but with a prospect like Buxton, it isn't worth the risk.

strumdatjag
06-11-2013, 10:07 AM
Kohl Stewart is a High School draftee. He should start at Elizabethton or the GCL. It would be crazy to send him to A Ball in Cedar Rapids for the last half of this season. Buxton will be promoted after the Kernals win the first half championship in a few days.

nicksaviking
06-11-2013, 10:17 AM
I doubt the Twins want to put Buxton and Sano on the same arbitration schedule. With the recent promotions, Sano, Rosario and Meyer could be timing things a little awkwardly for the Twins as it is.

Seth Stohs
06-11-2013, 10:43 AM
Also, just let him move up at his pace... let's see what he does in Ft. Myers. If he dominates there for 2 months, start him in New Britain next year. It shouldn't be a race to get him to AA.

mike wants wins
06-11-2013, 10:46 AM
Also, just let him move up at his pace... let's see what he does in Ft. Myers. If he dominates there for 2 months, start him in New Britain next year. It shouldn't be a race to get him to AA.

I agree, he should move at his pace, not when All Star games are, not slower because CR is a new affiliate, not anything about the minor league teams at all.

Physics Guy
06-11-2013, 11:00 AM
Thankfully Ft. Myers doesn't play this weekend (All-Star Break). Otherwise my trip to Cedar Rapids this weekend might not include seeing Buxton play. I have no doubts he will be in Ft. Myers soon after. Can't wait to watch them on Friday night.

kab21
06-11-2013, 12:35 PM
I have said it before but the only reason that you push Buxton to AA this year is so you can call him up early (April/May) next year. 1/2 a season in Ft Myers and 1/2 a season in NB and that allows him to be called up if he is considered ready. That's fast enough for me.

ericchri
06-11-2013, 01:12 PM
Also, just let him move up at his pace...

Isn't that kind of the point? Some people are just better at some things than others. Maybe his pace should be getting to AA this year. It's not about it being a race, per se. It's about letting his talent be tested in the proper environment. If somebody is just flat out better than everyone he's playing with, isn't it time to start looking to move him to a more suitable environment?

I'm not really advocating anything as of yet, cause I'm assuming he'll hit A+ in a couple weeks or so, and then we start learning more. But I think keeping an open mind to anything with ludicrous talent makes sense.

The biggest knock on Buxton seems to be his understanding of stealing bases. Really? That's hardly important enough to hold somebody back. If he hits again at Ft. Myers, why not think about New Britain this year? It's not necessary? What does necessary have to do with it. The question should be "can he benefit from it?", and so far I think the evidence says he might. If he stumbles at Ft. Myers, so be it, but if he rips it up, we probably have one of those once-in-a-blue-moon talents that you should be willing to alter your normal pattern for.

jokin
06-11-2013, 01:34 PM
Isn't that kind of the point? Some people are just better at some things than others. Maybe his pace should be getting to AA this year. It's not about it being a race, per se. It's about letting his talent be tested in the proper environment. If somebody is just flat out better than everyone he's playing with, isn't it time to start looking to move him to a more suitable environment?

I'm not really advocating anything as of yet, cause I'm assuming he'll hit A+ in a couple weeks or so, and then we start learning more. But I think keeping an open mind to anything with ludicrous talent makes sense.

The biggest knock on Buxton seems to be his understanding of stealing bases. Really? That's hardly important enough to hold somebody back. If he hits again at Ft. Myers, why not think about New Britain this year? It's not necessary? What does necessary have to do with it. The question should be "can he benefit from it?", and so far I think the evidence says he might. If he stumbles at Ft. Myers, so be it, but if he rips it up, we probably have one of those once-in-a-blue-moon talents that you should be willing to alter your normal pattern for.

Excellent post.

The Nervous Nellies and their excessive "nellieness" simply doesn't apply to guys like Trout, Machado, and hopefully, Buxton.

The most recent argument used for objecting Buxton's rapid progression was his supposed "slumping badly" May. His "slump" in that month produced a .294 BA with an .834 OPS- a number that still would have placed him in the top ten in the Midwest League. Furthermore, his last 10 game statistics (half of which were in the month of May) are above his April otherworldliness numbers, producing a slash line of .463/.500/.683/.1183. So yeah, he's made the "adjustments to the adjustments", just as many of us predicted he would. (Even overcoming a minor injury in the process).

If we really want to "just let him move up at his own pace", look to Trout and Machado as examples, not the Standard Operating Procedure inherent in the usual Twins promotion schedule.

Seth Stohs
06-11-2013, 01:45 PM
Like I said, let him get to Ft. Myers and see how that goes. If he's Trout-like, he'll hit like he in Cedar Rapids. IF he's like 99% of really good prospects, he'll need a little bit of time to adjust. I'd love to see him get to AA for a couple of weeks in August. I just try not to get ahead of myself. Harper and Trout and Machado are incredibly rare. I hope Buxton fits into that category! But, I expect him to struggle at some point.

Seth Stohs
06-11-2013, 01:47 PM
And, there's nothing wrong with him spending one more week in Cedar Rapids. One week makes pretty much zero difference. However, those guys have been together for 2 1/2 months, and they're on the cusp of winning the first half title. It's a speck on the radar in the big picture of Buxton's career. It likely means omething to him and his teammates though.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 02:00 PM
It would make even less sense to promote Buxton with only a couple of games left in the Miracle's first half, where they've already clinched. What, just so he can sit around for the days over the FSL's AllStar break? The Kernels have six games left and a razor thin lead for their first half Division title. It's not going to retard Buxton's progress by having him stick around 1 week and maybe even let him have the reward of playing in the MWL AllStar game (which honor he certainly earned).

People act like a week or two at one level or another is going to keep the guy from wearing a Twins uniform for a decade.

His play, once he's in the FSL, will dictate his advancement. Frankly, whether he plays a couple of weeks in NB at the end of the year or simply starts there next April, he's going to get to Minnesota (or not) based on what he does next year, not this year.

jokin
06-11-2013, 02:52 PM
Is their precedence for skipping High-A in this organization, or any other? The idea of getting Sano, Rosario, and Buxton around each other seems particularly palatable to me.




His play, once he's in the FSL, will dictate his advancement. Frankly, whether he plays a couple of weeks in NB at the end of the year or simply starts there next April, he's going to get to Minnesota (or not) based on what he does next year, not this year.



Bryce Harper went directly from A to AA in-season. His OPS dropped from .973 in A ball, to .724 in AA- his HR power disappearing altogether---The following year, 2012, he played 21 games in AAA, batting .243/.325/.365/.690, none of which of these developments dissuaded the Nats from installing Harper at age 19 into the starting ML lineup- mostly in CF.

mike wants wins
06-11-2013, 02:59 PM
It would make even less sense to promote Buxton with only a couple of games left in the Miracle's first half, where they've already clinched. What, just so he can sit around for the days over the FSL's AllStar break? The Kernels have six games left and a razor thin lead for their first half Division title. It's not going to retard Buxton's progress by having him stick around 1 week and maybe even let him have the reward of playing in the MWL AllStar game (which honor he certainly earned).

People act like a week or two at one level or another is going to keep the guy from wearing a Twins uniform for a decade.

His play, once he's in the FSL, will dictate his advancement. Frankly, whether he plays a couple of weeks in NB at the end of the year or simply starts there next April, he's going to get to Minnesota (or not) based on what he does next year, not this year.

In fairness, it is only a week or two now....3 weeks ago, it was a month. And we don't know if he goes up after the break, we are guessing. And, that has nothing to do with his ability, so he's not progressing based on his talent, but on a low-A title that has no impact on him or the Twins long term.

All we want is for him to move up when he's ready, and not wait for artificial reasons.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 03:16 PM
Bryce Harper also played a year of juco ball before he was drafted which, while not exactly the SEC, was a higher level of competition than rural high school ball in Georgia.

They may be "artificial" reasons to you, mike. But it's not artificial at all in the real world of affiliated minor league baseball. If you think affiliate relations aren't important, you really weren't paying attention last summer/fall when the affiliation merry-go-round was happening, especially in the MWL.

Minor league teams can't afford to lose money at the gate the way MLB teams can. There's no multi-billion dollar broadcast rights cash to fall back on. If a MLB team completely ignores the needs of their affiliates, they end up having their players play in Burlington and Beloit instead of Cedar Rapids and Quad Cities (you can ask the Angels about that, trust me). If you think that doesn't matter to organizations, you haven't been to each of those facilities or talked to the people who've had to call those clubhouses their "home."

The Twins have to provide Jake Mauer with 25 able bodies to field a team, too. That's obviously not as easy as it might sound, given the stretches he's had to cobble together a team with a roster 2-3 guys short of a full roster already this season.

The Twins have a way they do these things and it's unlikely they're going to change now. They made a big deal last year about how they kept Sano at low-A for a full season. To have moved Buxton up after just 3-4 weeks because he was off to a fast start, that would have caused an immediate chill in what has otherwise been a very warm start to the Twins/CR Ownership relationship. And there's no assurance it would have been the best move for Buxton, either.

I think anyone who thinks Buxton, Walker, Hicks, Harrison, Williams, Melotakis, Gruver and everyone else who's posted a decent first half are all about to move to Ft Myers together is probably going to be disappointed. I'm guessing it will be no more than 3 guys and I won't be at all surprised if Buxton goes alone (remember, they've already promoted three pitchers).

jokin
06-11-2013, 03:27 PM
In fairness, it is only a week or two now....3 weeks ago, it was a month. And we don't know if he goes up after the break, we are guessing. And, that has nothing to do with his ability, so he's not progressing based on his talent, but on a low-A title that has no impact on him or the Twins long term.

All we want is for him to move up when he's ready, and not wait for artificial reasons.

Gibson, Sano, Buxton, same old, same old. The All-Star game gambit is only the latest artificiality.

mike wants wins
06-11-2013, 03:27 PM
Affiliate relations are important, but are you saying only promoting 1 player would hurt those? And should they keep him in FTM for playoffs, to help them? Then next year, should NBs happiness take precedent over MN? Sometimes, you do things differently.

LimestoneBaggy
06-11-2013, 03:38 PM
Gibson, Sano, Buxton, same old, same old. The All-Star game gambit is only the latest artificiality.
Maybe I'm getting baited in here, but what's your point? Is it your point that you generally think the Twins are too conservative, or is it your point that you believe Buxton is a Trout/Harper/Machado? They moved him up two levels last year, and it looks like the same for this year. Seems pretty bullish to me.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 03:43 PM
"Take precedent over MN?" No.

But do the Twins strike you as an organization that reacts to things on a week-to-week basis? Seems to me, they set up a plan for their players and pretty much stick to those plans.

Should they keep Buxton in FtM for the playoffs? Maybe. A lot of factors go in to that decision. Certainly more than just "what is Buxton's OPS the last couple weeks?" That's my point. Affiliate relations are not THE MOST important thing, but they are important. To expect otherwise is not realistic.

jokin
06-11-2013, 03:47 PM
Maybe I'm getting baited in here, but what's your point? Is it your point that you generally think the Twins are too conservative, or is it your point that you believe Buxton is a Trout/Harper/Machado? They moved him up two levels last year, and it looks like the same for this year. Seems pretty bullish to me.

See my post above, re: Bryce Harper. Also see my thread about Buxton and the Trout Timeline. I am convinced that Buck is the real deal, by the stat test, in-person eyewitness test and by the scout/pundit evaluation test. To continue with the Twins traditional conservative approach and constant excuse-making on the slow-play gambit, is, in this case, and also with Sano, patently absurd.

mike wants wins
06-11-2013, 03:49 PM
And I think sometimes, you need to change your plan. Well, actually, since I do strategic planning for a living, I know you need to change plans often.

jokin
06-11-2013, 03:51 PM
Affiliate relations are important, but are you saying only promoting 1 player would hurt those? And should they keep him in FTM for playoffs, to help them? Then next year, should NBs happiness take precedent over MN? Sometimes, you do things differently.

In this case, and the Sano case, the situation demands that you do things differently. They aren't kicking the door in to be promoted, yesterday, rather, they are both employing the nuclear option to door removal. Other organizations get this, why not here?

mikecgrimes
06-11-2013, 03:58 PM
I doubt the Twins want to put Buxton and Sano on the same arbitration schedule. With the recent promotions, Sano, Rosario and Meyer could be timing things a little awkwardly for the Twins as it is.

The only way thats a problem is if they both are what we hope they might be. I expect Sano will be more like the Twins version of David Ortiz then the Red Sox version, and Buxton will probably be more like Torii Hunter then Ken Griffey Jr. We're still very early in development and so far they really haven't done much that Todd Walker or David McCarty didn't do. If they both pan out Target Field will sell out and when they finally make the big bucks we will be on a new TV deal (please bring back the Victory sports concept!!!). Superstars get paid the rest of the roster gets traded or let go to make it work.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 04:05 PM
I would argue that for the Twins to promote a high school position player mid-season (twice, actually... last year and this year) constitutes an adjustment in their normal plans for that kind of player.

Riverbrian
06-11-2013, 04:22 PM
I hope the Twins Front Office promotes Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano with absolute perfect timing. Just like Goldilocks... Not too Soon... Not too slow but just right. And keep the flipping bears away at the same time.

LimestoneBaggy
06-11-2013, 04:39 PM
See my post above, re: Bryce Harper. Also see my thread about Buxton and the Trout Timeline. I am convinced that Buck is the real deal, by the stat test, in-person eyewitness test and by the scout/pundit evaluation test. To continue with the Twins traditional conservative approach and constant excuse-making on the slow-play gambit, is, in this case, and also with Sano, patently absurd.
I don't see the approach the Twins have taken with Buxton as overly conservative at this point. Frankly, I want to see him tear up each level for a time prior to a promotion (I'm okay with a two levels a year). Sano's maximum value is at third, and he needed to work on his defense and swinging strike rate. He's shown he's better at both now; promote him. Buxton showed he mastered the level; promote him. Why is earning the promotion at each level and protecting the investment patently absurd?

LimestoneBaggy
06-11-2013, 04:40 PM
I hope the Twins Front Office promotes Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano with absolute perfect timing. Just like Goldilocks... Not too Soon... Not too slow but just right. And keep the flipping bears away at the same time.
Slow clap for awesomeness.

jorgenswest
06-11-2013, 04:53 PM
He should move to AA when he is ready. That doesn't mean he has to be ready to dominate. Learning how to deal with struggle is an important part of development. There really should be no other factor. Is he ready?

Meanwhile looking at offense and defense, he is probably the best option to throw out in CF on the big league club tonight.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 05:04 PM
When you think about it, if he takes the field for the Miracle before the anniversary of the first game he played for the GCL Twins after signing last summer, he will have officially played at FOUR levels of minor league ball in his first full year as a professional (both rookie levels, A, A+) as a teenager. Hard to call that being overly conservative in my book.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-11-2013, 05:14 PM
Why do they need to be "around" each other? They all play diff positions, not like they are double play partners etc

You're not a proponent of surrounding "greatness" with "greatness"?

jokin
06-11-2013, 05:38 PM
I don't see the approach the Twins have taken with Buxton as overly conservative at this point. Frankly, I want to see him tear up each level for a time prior to a promotion (I'm okay with a two levels a year). Sano's maximum value is at third, and he needed to work on his defense and swinging strike rate. He's shown he's better at both now; promote him. Buxton showed he mastered the level; promote him. Why is earning the promotion at each level and protecting the investment patently absurd?

See: Harper, Bryce. Machoado, Manny. Trout, Mike,,,,

This isn't hard, folks, The above did not need to demonstrate their mastery of a level, they just got promoted. These clubs saw better uses for their investments than laboring away longer than necessary at levels they are making mockeries of...

jokin
06-11-2013, 05:41 PM
I would argue that for the Twins to promote a high school position player mid-season (twice, actually... last year and this year) constitutes an adjustment in their normal plans for that kind of player.

And it oh-so-hurts-them, all the way down to their sphincter muscles, to do so.

Never has managment and coaching staff gushed over a prospect in almost perplexed anguish, awe and trepidation. I don't think they have a proper handle on what they have here.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 06:03 PM
Trout played 86 games at Cedar Rapids before being promoted to finish the season at A+. In all likelihood, Buxton will play 20 fewer at that level before being promoted to A+. But I guess why wait to see how things actually play out when we can complain now?

Joe A. Preusser
06-11-2013, 06:07 PM
Kohl Stewart is a High School draftee. He should start at Elizabethton or the GCL. It would be crazy to send him to A Ball in Cedar Rapids for the last half of this season. Buxton will be promoted after the Kernals win the first half championship in a few days.

He could certainly hold his own talent wise I'd think, but rookie ball is where you learn how to be a professional. Pretty sure even Mauer didn't skip rookie ball, and he was hitting like .900 his last year of HS.

jokin
06-11-2013, 06:15 PM
Trout played 86 games at Cedar Rapids before being promoted to finish the season at A+. In all likelihood, Buxton will play 20 fewer at that level before being promoted to A+. But I guess why wait to see how things actually play out when we can complain now?

JC, it was you yourself that expressed your own doubts just a few weeks ago in April, that Buxton would ever have lasted at Cedar Rapids this long into the month of June.

(BTW---At this point, I have no problem with Buxton playing out the week in CR. It's the overall philosophy that I question, there's strong evidence that Buxton is beginning to resemble other recent phenoms who didn't require babying along- by having to somehow cross over artificial hurdles like "mastering" each successive level, or showing more 'consistency", before "earning" a promotion.)

Joe A. Preusser
06-11-2013, 06:25 PM
"Take precedent over MN?" No.

But do the Twins strike you as an organization that reacts to things on a week-to-week basis? Seems to me, they set up a plan for their players and pretty much stick to those plans.

Should they keep Buxton in FtM for the playoffs? Maybe. A lot of factors go in to that decision. Certainly more than just "what is Buxton's OPS the last couple weeks?" That's my point. Affiliate relations are not THE MOST important thing, but they are important. To expect otherwise is not realistic.

I'd like to add a few points. First, every championship one of our affiliates brings home adds to the prestige of the organization. Don't belittle minor league ball just because you prefer to only care about the major league team. Second, playoff experience is valuable at whatever level you can get it. I would take 2 weeks of playoff A ball over 2 weeks of regular season A+ ball for a player's development any day. Lastly, the exact times that we move Buxton up are probably irrelevant to his actual major league debut time. Whether he was moved up to A+ a month ago, or in another month, he will probably be in a Twins uni either next September or the following spring. A month here or there now will not likely change the ultimate timeline.

jokin
06-11-2013, 06:34 PM
I'd like to add a few points. First, every championship one of our affiliates brings home adds to the prestige of the organization. Don't belittle minor league ball just because you prefer to only care about the major league team. Second, playoff experience is valuable at whatever level you can get it. I would take 2 weeks of playoff A ball over 2 weeks of regular season A+ ball for a player's development any day. Lastly, the exact times that we move Buxton up are probably irrelevant to his actual major league debut time. Whether he was moved up to A+ a month ago, or in another month, he will probably be in a Twins uni either next September or the following spring. A month here or there now will not likely change the ultimate timeline.

There are baseball professionals, both inside and outside of the Twins organization that are on record as saying Miguel Sano can hit at the major league level now. Others within, and outside the organization say Buxton is the best they've ever seen, in some capacity anyway. Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 06:44 PM
jokin, you're right. I did openly wonder if the Twins would leave Buxton in CR through the end of the first half. Had they decided a couple of weeks in to May to promote him, I couldn't have and wouldn't have argued that they were making a mistake. They've promoted four Kernels already that I can think of (though one of them they ultimately released from the FtM roster).

But once the Twins made the decision to leave Buxton in CR through Memorial Day, I see absolutely nothing wrong with leaving him in CR two more weeks to finish the first half to help the affiliate and his team mates nail down a playoff spot. Consensus seems to be the one aspect of his game he needs the most work on is base-stealing. He can work on that for 2 weeks (one week of which was with Paul Molitor by his side) in CR just as easily as FtM and, in fact, might actually get more work on that aspect at his current level since he would arguably get on base more at CR.

On top of that, FtM actually goes to their break a couple of days before CR does, so again, why not let him play out the first half in CR instead of sitting around FtM on his butt?

What I object to is the contention that affiliate relations should have absolutely no bearing on decisions. That might be ideal in a world where MLB organizations own and operate all of their minor league affiliates, but that's not the real world that the Twins operate in.

Joe A. Preusser
06-11-2013, 06:49 PM
There are baseball professionals, both inside and outside of the Twins organization that are on record as saying Miguel Sano can hit at the major league level now. Others within, and outside the organization say Buxton is the best they've ever seen, in some capacity anyway. Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

None of which really counters any of my points. Of course it is possible to promote Sano to the majors right now. Is that best for the Twins, Rock Cats, Red Wings, and Sano himself? I do not believe so. For every Harper and Trout how many failed rush experiments are there? 5? 10? Doesn't this just boil down to impatience? Take a deep breath and wait for next All-Star break/September and we'll probably see them both at Target field. Faster is not always better, and this is coming from someone who firmly believes these kids need to be challenged and challenged hard.

Turd Furgeson
06-11-2013, 06:55 PM
See: Harper, Bryce. Machoado, Manny. Trout, Mike,,,,

This isn't hard, folks, The above did not need to demonstrate their mastery of a level, they just got promoted. These clubs saw better uses for their investments than laboring away longer than necessary at levels they are making mockeries of...

Mike Trout had 1312 plate appearances in the minor leagues before earning a big league promotion.

Byron Buxton currently has 458, and will finish with a couple hundred more before the end of the season.

Mike Trout spent a year in short season ball. Another year going from low A to high A. Another year completely in AA. Then the year after he spent about a month in AAA before being called up.

Byron Buxton spent a partial season in short season ball. He will likely spend a year in low A and high A. Next year he'll likely be in AA for the most part and could be called up shortly after.

If he were to do that, his timeline would be quite similar to Mike Trout's.

SD Buhr
06-11-2013, 06:56 PM
Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

Actually, in 2010, the Angels left Mike Trout in CR through the first half of the season, helping them earn a playoff spot (and actually a couple of weeks beyond the end of the first half). Then he was promoted to Ranch Cucamonga where he also helped the Quakes earn a playoff spot by winning their Division title for the second half of the season. The Angels did not promote Trout to AA for the last couple weeks of the season, as some suggest the Twins should do with Buxton. Instead, they allowed him to stay and participate in the post-season with the Quakes.

I guess we could say that the Angels allowing Trout to stick around to help out their A and A+ affiliates that way didn't seem to hurt his career.

JP3700
06-11-2013, 07:02 PM
Harper, Trout and Machado joined contending teams. They were called up to supplement the talent that was already there, not to carry the team. I think it would be wise to continue to let Sano and Buxton develop in the minors and save the 6+ years of guaranteed team control on years where our pitching staff doesn't include five #5 starters. It's tough on young prospects to be expected to carry a team, no matter how highly touted they are. Just take a look at the Royals.

Pitz
06-11-2013, 07:04 PM
There are baseball professionals, both inside and outside of the Twins organization that are on record as saying Miguel Sano can hit at the major league level now. Others within, and outside the organization say Buxton is the best they've ever seen, in some capacity anyway. Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

Jokin, I respect your arguments that the Twins need to recognize the special talent they have. I would also like to see the precocious talents like Buxton and Sano moving up and continually tested. Hopefully they are able to meet those challenges and reach the big leagues soon.
However, I think your argument about the Twins may have been brushing with too broad of strokes. I feel the Twins have in the past recognized great talents and been more aggressive in their promotions rather than always slow playing them. Thats not to say that there weren't players who couldn't have been promoted more quickly or started out at a higher level than they did, but I don't think the Twins have one set track that they keep all prospects on. The Twins recognized Mauer as a great talent and he moved through the system very quickly (especially for a catcher). Oswaldo Arcia has been promoted more aggressively than many other prospects (and while we all have high hopes for him, is not considered an 'elite' talent).
While some believe Sano can hit major league pitching now, a lot of people also have serious questions about his ability to hit quality breaking stuff. His defensive development is also important (Harper, Trout, and Machado are all terrific defensive players). I think the Twins have done alright with their promotions with him when considering his all around (player and personal) development.
Buxton is a much more complete player but it's too early to judge the Twins' promotions of him. So far, I think he's right about where he should be. Most people have been a bit surprised at how quickly his tools have translated and how much success he's had so far. If the Twins don't promote him soon, I'll be upset as well, but I don't think I can get too mad at them right now.
I'm not saying the Twins can do no wrong. They've frustrated me more than their fair share, but I don't think their player promotion timetable is as all encompassing as you have made it out to be.

Pitz
06-11-2013, 07:58 PM
Informative piece from Fangraphs about ages of minor leaguers:
Minor League Leaderboard Context (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/minor-league-leaderboard-context/)



AGE
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28


AAA
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
3.3%
7.0%
12.6%
22.4%
37.4%
48.6%
61.2%
70.6%


AA
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
1.8%
9.0%
24.6%
46.1%
68.9%
83.8%
92.8%
97.0%
98.2%


A+
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
12.4%
26.1%
54.0%
75.8%
90.1%
97.5%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%


A
0.0%
2.4%
15.6%
34.1%
52.1%
80.2%
97.0%
98.8%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%


A-
0.8%
3.9%
19.4%
31.0%
63.6%
89.1%
98.4%
99.2%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%


R
6.8%
24.6%
53.1%
73.4%
85.3%
94.6%
99.2%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%



"Looking at the table above, we see that only 7% of players in Triple-A are 22 years old or younger. The bold diagonal lines, which starts from 17-year-olds in rookie ball and moves up and to the right to 22 year olds in Triple-A, outlines the path of elite prospects. The corner in the bottom right, shaded in red, shows the where players are “old” for their level."

Also from Baseball America:
The Top 10 Youngest Players In Each League ... - Baseball America (http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/top-10-youngest-players/&sa=U&ei=ssa3UcuJEqnGywHb34GYAQ&ved=0CBgQFjAA&sig2=kyHzQDZAuoquBSZ_84qOzA&usg=AFQjCNH_6zMePrllnocWY4nG8P-rDbY9hQ)

Sano was the youngest player to start the year in the FSL, and I believe is now the youngest player in the Eastern League.
When Buxton is promoted to Fort Myers, I believe he will be the youngest in the FSL.

*These have probably been referenced/linked in other threads as they are not new articles but I thought they were relevant to the thread.

kab21
06-11-2013, 10:22 PM
I am completely confused how anyone can think that a potential promotion schedule of 1/2 season at CR, 1/2 at FM, and 1/2 at NB before being called up is the same old, same old.

I am also completely confused by these Machado and Trout comparison complaints. Each of those prospects followed the same 1/2 season at each level (skipping AAA) that Buxton is on pace for. If you are going to piss and moan then you should use facts.

Harper was one of the absolute best HS draftees in the last 25 yrs and he played JC ball so he really isn't a comparable.

Seth Stohs
06-11-2013, 10:40 PM
When you think about it, if he takes the field for the Miracle before the anniversary of the first game he played for the GCL Twins after signing last summer, he will have officially played at FOUR levels of minor league ball in his first full year as a professional (both rookie levels, A, A+) as a teenager. Hard to call that being overly conservative in my book.

Agreed! I am just baffled by these comments... Buxton is flying through the system so far (assuming he moves up next week). And, even if he doesn't, he's still ahead of the scale.

Seth Stohs
06-11-2013, 10:45 PM
Never has managment and coaching staff gushed over a prospect in almost perplexed anguish, awe and trepidation. I don't think they have a proper handle on what they have here.

Seriously? The Twins brass doesn't know what they have in Byron Buxton... OK.

jokin
06-12-2013, 01:04 AM
Seriously? The Twins brass doesn't know what they have in Byron Buxton... OK.

That's not what I said. Please try again and re-read what I actually stated.

jokin
06-12-2013, 01:11 AM
I am completely confused how anyone can think that a potential promotion schedule of 1/2 season at CR, 1/2 at FM, and 1/2 at NB before being called up is the same old, same old.

I am also completely confused by these Machado and Trout comparison complaints. Each of those prospects followed the same 1/2 season at each level (skipping AAA) that Buxton is on pace for. If you are going to piss and moan then you should use facts.

Harper was one of the absolute best HS draftees in the last 25 yrs and he played JC ball so he really isn't a comparable***

***One year of JC ball at age 18.

Hopefully Buxton is on pace to duplicate this. I have used nothing but facts thus far, the Twins have notorioiusly moved players very slowly, Buxton, as well as Sano, deserve to be fast-tracked to hit the big leagues at age 20. Let's see if that actually happens, or not.... and BTW, I am a big stickler on facts about where and how appropriate body functions are used appropriately.

kab21
06-12-2013, 01:46 AM
***One year of JC ball at age 18.

Hopefully Buxton is on pace to duplicate this. I have used nothing but facts thus far, the Twins have notorioiusly moved players very slowly, Buxton, as well as Sano, deserve to be fast-tracked to hit the big leagues at age 20. Let's see if that actually happens, or not.... and BTW, I am a big stickler on facts about where and how appropriate body functions are used appropriately.

Perhaps you didn't understand my Harper comment. Buxton was the BPA in a weak draft while Harper was a no doubt #1 pick for 2 yrs before his draft. His promotion schedule shouldn't be used as a benchmark for Buxton. He was far more developed than even Buxton at comparable ages. Buxton is great now but Harper was great at an even earlier age.

You have mentioned Trout and Machado over and over in this thread. Assuming that Buxton gets promoted next week (as the entire board expects) then he is on the same promotion schedule as those two. So, what exactly is your complaint? How does that make the Twins conservative?

mwl-collector
06-12-2013, 08:29 PM
Buxton will most likely get called up after the MWL allstar break (June 17-19) And mostly the reason why Molitor was in CR for the past homestand (Got many autos of him!) was to look at Buxton for his weakness (Baserunning), also, he is tearing up Low-A pitching and some people in the organization might be thinking he could get to caught up with this pitching, and will have a lot harder time with higher-level pitching, so that is why i think they will move him up at a steady pace so he can start seeing better and better pitching constantly.