PDA

View Full Version : What experts are saying about the Twin's draft



cmb0252
06-10-2013, 02:52 PM
Baseballamerica:

The Twins system is loaded with high-ceiling bats, and the club got potential power arms to go with them in this draft class. Houston prep righthander Kohl Stewart (first round) and enigmatic Louisiana State righty Ryan Eades (second) both have starter stuff, and Kohl has as much upside as any pitcher in the draft class. High school lefthander Stephen Gonsalves (fourth) entered the year as a potential first-rounder and could be a steal if he gains consistency and fills out his projectable 6-foot-5, 205-pound frame. An organization thin on catching depth loaded up on backstops with three in the first 10 rounds, including the nation’s top catch-and-throw defender in Mississippi’s Stuart Turner (third).
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/what-your-team-did-in-the-draft-american-league-edition/

Keith Law:

Minnesota got one of the highest upside guys in the draft in right-hander Kohl Stewart (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19309/kohl-stewart?) (No. 4 overall), a quarterback commit to Texas A&M who has four pitches, including a fastball up to 97 mph and a plus slider, but needs some delivery fine-tuning and will have to manage his Type 1 diabetes.

LSU starter Ryan Eades (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19324/ryan-eades?) (No. 43) had a disappointing year relative to preseason first-round expectations but still projects as a solid back-end starter and fits the Twins' mold of taking strike-throwing college arms without huge upside. Stewart Turner (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19390/stuart-turner?) (second round) was probably the top catch-and-throw prospect in the draft, but his bat likely limits him to backup duty.

California prep southpaw Stephen Gonsalves has fringy stuff, including a below-average breaking ball, and feels like a big reach in the fourth round because he's not projectable. Indiana right-hander Aaron Slegers (fifth round) has ace size (6-foot-10, 250 pounds) but back-end stuff, with an average fastball and below-average breaking ball. Catcher Brian Navarreto (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19415/brian-navarreto?) (sixth round) has strong hands, but his swing is too uphill and his lower half is very noisy; he has some arm strength but needs work on other aspects of his defense.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=985

Christopher Crawford:

The Twins scouted Stewart hard all year, so this pick shouldn't come as a surprise. Stewart will certainly sign for higher than the league's recommended bonus -- with the threat to play college football as a negotiating tool -- but I would expect Minnesota to get him into their system. He immediately becomes the Twins' best pitching prospect, and with two plus-plus pitches he could be helping a Minnesota rotation that needs all the help it can get in a couple of years.

Kohl Stewart was the best player on the board, and Ryan Eades has shown No. 2 stuff at times.

Best Value: No. 95– Stephen Gonsalves /LHP / Cathedral Catholic H.S. (Calif.): This one comes with some obvious caveats, as he was not good this year and there’s some character stuff here as well. That being said, if he can pitch like he did in the summer, this is great value.Questionable Value: No. 170– Brian Navarreto /C / Arlington-Day H.S. (Fla.): If he can stay behind the plate this could look foolish, but at 6-4, 220 I don’t think that’s very realistic.
Best/Worst of Day Two: | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/bestworst-of-day-two/)

Jason Churchill:

Twins (No. 43) | Ryan Eades (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19324/ryan-eades?), RHP, LSU: Eades received top-20 buzz this spring, but fell to a team with a history of drafting strike throwers. He uses all of his pitches and offers a little bit of projection thanks to a prototypical pitcher's build at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds.Eades could be the Michael Wacha (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32640/michael-wacha) of the class of 2013. Wacha made his big league debut for the St. Louis Cardinals last month after being the No. 19 overall pick in last year's draft. That's not a comparison of talents, just in terms of moving quickly despite the lack of ace upside.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post/_/id/877/churchill-second-round-highlights-al

Crawford is posting a breakdown of the Twins picks tomorrow and Sickels is working on his draft breakdowns division by division.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-10-2013, 03:51 PM
This was very informative. Thanks!

nicksaviking
06-10-2013, 04:18 PM
I see the previous two drafts didn't change the perception of the Twins much to some of these guys.

KLaw: "fits the Twins' mold of taking strike-throwing college arms without huge upside."

Churchill: "fell to a team with a history of drafting strike throwers."

This tells me the perception isn't going to go away until the Twins actually successfully groom some aces from their own system.

jorgenswest
06-10-2013, 05:55 PM
Selecting on both extremes of high school power and more polished strike throwing college player seems like sensible balance in the draft.

nicksaviking
06-10-2013, 06:08 PM
Selecting on both extremes of high school power and more polished strike throwing college player seems like sensible balance in the draft.

Outside of Stewart did they do much of this? I don't see scouting reports for most of the guys drafted late but Gonsalves is the only other HS arm they took until late and I didn't think he was a high velocity guy at the moment, though I could be wrong.

B Richard
06-10-2013, 06:30 PM
I'm seeing mixed reports on Gonsalves. Is this a guy who we expect to mature physically a little bit and maybe gain a few ticks/ or get a better feel for his breaking stuff? Law calling him "not projectable" is curious, as he is just a high schooler and could easily gain some weight/ power to his pitches

jorgenswest
06-10-2013, 06:52 PM
Outside of Stewart did they do much of this? I don't see scouting reports for most of the guys drafted late but Gonsalves is the only other HS arm they took until late and I didn't think he was a high velocity guy at the moment, though I could be wrong.

I can only read the mixed reports on Gonsalves listed above where some see a steal and others a reach. That is not unusual for high school guys. He certainly is a risk. An older college guy in that round might be projected as a middle reliever. So few guys make it after the first few rounds. They balanced the early picks.

cmathewson
06-10-2013, 07:36 PM
I don't get Laws' disdain for Gonsalves. He says he's not project able, but at 6'5", 18 years old and left handed, he seems the definition of project ability. Watch the video on him. He's got good stuff now, and he has a lot of rough edges. If he smooths those out, he could become something special. Seems like a good pick at #4. Not a reach at all if you go by BA's ranking.

cmb0252
06-10-2013, 10:20 PM
I'm seeing mixed reports on Gonsalves. Is this a guy who we expect to mature physically a little bit and maybe gain a few ticks/ or get a better feel for his breaking stuff? Law calling him "not projectable" is curious, as he is just a high schooler and could easily gain some weight/ power to his pitches

Here is a draft profile at minorleagueball for Mr.gonsalves:

2013 MLB Draft Profile: Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, California HS - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/8/3961874/2013-mlb-draft-profile-stephen-gonsalves-lhp-california-hs)

While I personally like this pick, gonsalves has a few dings. He had some character issues this year while putting up sub par numbers. He is also already 19 and is one of the oldest HS kids from the draft.

cmb0252
06-10-2013, 10:23 PM
I see the previous two drafts didn't change the perception of the Twins much to some of these guys.

KLaw: "fits the Twins' mold of taking strike-throwing college arms without huge upside."

Churchill: "fell to a team with a history of drafting strike throwers."

This tells me the perception isn't going to go away until the Twins actually successfully groom some aces from their own system.

Well, it is hard to shake that when all you draft this year is college soft tossers outside of Stewart and Gonsalves. Last year they really stacked up on harder throwing guys but the Twins have way too long of history of drafting strike throwers to shake it off after one draft.

Jeremy Nygaard
06-10-2013, 10:28 PM
If you watch the video that Casey linked above, it shows Gonsalves with a old-school overhead wind-up. I've heard he's ditched that. I also believe he had better results since going to a more traditional wind-up. Really not a big deal (or deal at all), but something worth pointing out.

Saying a 6-4 18-year-old lacks projection is irresponsible, at the very least.

cmb0252
06-11-2013, 11:12 AM
From John Sickels

COMMENT: Stewart was the best high school pitcher in the draft class and a potential ace, though he's not quite in the Jose Fernandez (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/188371/jose-fernandez) or Dylan Bundy (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/149456/dylan-bundy) category. The Twins took few chances with their other picks. One exception is sixth-rounder Brian Navaretto, who has the tools to be a regular major league catcher but will need considerable refinement. Eades has the look of an inning-eater; Turner and Garver add catching depth to a system looking ahead for someone to help Joe Mauer. Turner's glove is quite good but it is uncertain how much he'll hit. Gonsalves got first-round buzz last fall but didn't live up to his potential this spring. Puerto Rican infielder Nelson Molina has an excellent glove but needs help with his hitting.

Link to full article below:
2013 MLB Draft: American League Central Summary and Review - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/11/4415382/2013-mlb-draft-american-league-central-summary-and-review-sickels)

cmb0252
06-11-2013, 12:00 PM
BA ranks the top 500 prospects for the draft each year. Today they released a list of how many players each team took from the list. Jim Callis does give this warning:

We will caution that using this list as an evaluation of a team’s draft is impudent. Without looking closer at the information, this list could be very misleading. This is a fun way to see which team drafted the most talented players, which is how the BA 500 is compiled and not on where the players will be drafted, but signability is another matter. The Padres, for example, tied the Athletics for the most top 100 players (six). But unlike the A’s, who took five of their six top 100 players at the top of the draft and will likely sign them, the Padres are unlikely to sign three of the top 100 players, Connor Jones (34), Chris Okey (72) and Garrett Williams (66), as all three are high school players with strong commitments to top college programs.

Here is what they have to say about the Twins:

Twins (18 total, 2 top 100, 5 top 200, average: 235)
Kohl Stewart (5), Ryan Eades (37), Stuart Turner (110), Stephen Gonsalves (107), Aaron Slegers (220), Brian Navaretto (185), Brian Gilbert (495), Dustin DeMuth (278), Mitchell Garver (234), CK Irby (237), Nelson Molina (442), Ethan Mildren (375), Brandon Peterson (238), Derrick Penilla (414), Jared Wilson (455), Logan Shore (202), A.J. Bogucki (383), Steven Sensley (344).

Here is a link for a full list:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/which-teams-drafted-the-most-players-from-the-ba-500/

old nurse
06-11-2013, 12:06 PM
From John Sickels


Link to full article below:
2013 MLB Draft: American League Central Summary and Review - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/11/4415382/2013-mlb-draft-american-league-central-summary-and-review-sickels)

Although it has nothing to do with the draft, a story linked to that page was interesting. The title reminded me of a few current unnamed starting pitchers, some of whom are now in Rochester.

Lessons from the linescore: Learning from the plodding pitchers, who succeed without "stuff" - SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/longform/2013/6/11/4395198/lessons-from-the-linescore-pat-jor)

Ozziedavisfan
06-11-2013, 12:25 PM
Saying a 6-4 18-year-old lacks projection is irresponsible, at the very least.


aren't all draft picks projectable in on way or another

CK
06-11-2013, 12:32 PM
Saying a 6-4 18-year-old lacks projection is irresponsible, at the very least.



aren't all draft picks projectable in on way or another





Maybe he thought he was 64-years-old and 18 inches tall?

nicksaviking
06-11-2013, 12:46 PM
He had some character issues this year while putting up sub par numbers.


I don't get Laws' disdain for Gonsalves.

I'm going to go ahead and read between the lines here. I think it's a fair assumption that Gonsalves slept with Keith Law's wife.

Oxtung
06-11-2013, 01:08 PM
I'm going to go ahead and read between the lines here. I think it's a fair assumption that Gonsalves slept with Keith Law's wife.

Does she look anything like Brandon McCarthy's wife?

cmb0252
06-11-2013, 02:41 PM
I'm going to go ahead and read between the lines here. I think it's a fair assumption that Gonsalves slept with Keith Law's wife.

Keith Law has a ton of experience scouting and is titled to his opinions. Obviously scouting isn't an exact science, as shown above by other experts disagreeing with, but you never know with prospects. I actually like Mr.Gonsalves and hope him/Stewart are a future 1/2 punch.

I did hope the Twins would draft more raw LHPs seeing that was one of the strengths of the draft but like normal they went for college RHP, which was the other strength of the draft.

mike wants wins
06-11-2013, 03:13 PM
How is a professional scout offering his opinion irresponsible, or somehow worse that that?

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-11-2013, 04:55 PM
I'm seeing mixed reports on Gonsalves. Is this a guy who we expect to mature physically a little bit and maybe gain a few ticks/ or get a better feel for his breaking stuff? Law calling him "not projectable" is curious, as he is just a high schooler and could easily gain some weight/ power to his pitches

He is a 4th rounder, I think its kind of silly to call any 4th rounder a "reach" especially one who actually has some upside according to folks. By the 4th round its such a crapshoot anyways that you might as well take a lottery ticker or two.

mike wants wins
06-11-2013, 10:13 PM
I agree, take lots of big gambles in round 4 and later, that's a good strategy.

diehardtwinsfan
06-12-2013, 10:41 AM
I seem to remember seeing something somewhere that team's started seeing guys that weren't on their board by the 3rd round or so... so in agreement with Dave, calling a fourth rounder a reach is silly. Gonclaves is the kind of high upside HS guy I'd have hoped they would have drafted. I'd have rather them gone after Kyle Cerrano, but I get the impression he wasn't going to sign, so wasting a high pick on him made little sense. It's a good pick. Let's see if they can get him in uniform.

cmb0252
06-12-2013, 01:18 PM
In Jim Callis' weekly chat he answered this question about the draft.


What are your thoughts on the Twins draft as a whole? Obviously the Kohl Stewart pick is promising, but a couple other pitchers (Eades and Gonsalves) were tied to the 1st round at some point this year - what do you think of them?


Jim Callis: I thought the Twins did a really nice job addressing their need for pitching. One scouting director told me Stewart's stuff is just as good as Appel's and Gray's, plus he's more athletic. Eades and Gonsalves went about where they should have, also like the additions of Aaron Slegers, C.K. Irby and Brandon Peterson in later rounds

boylan
06-12-2013, 01:29 PM
Outside of Stewart did they do much of this? I don't see scouting reports for most of the guys drafted late but Gonsalves is the only other HS arm they took until late and I didn't think he was a high velocity guy at the moment, though I could be wrong.

6 of Twins top 10 picks were pitchers, 2 high ceiling HS picks and 4 college juniors.
HS picks were 1-4 and 4-4 so I think that's pretty much both ends of the spectrum covered.

cmb0252
06-12-2013, 11:14 PM
Christopher Crawford wrote a nice long review of the Twins draft. Check it out!

2013 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/2013-draft-review-minnesota-twins/)

For those of you too lazy to read it all here is his final thought:

Again, a lot of averages, but again, that’s not a bad thing. Stewart has a chance to be the best player in the entire class, and with his fastball and slider already above-average pitches he could move (reasonably) quickly through the system. There’s a lot of if’s that could make this an even better class — if Eades can pitch like the front-line starter he’s shown at times, if Gonsalves is more like the guy we saw in the summer, if Navarreto can stay behind the plate — but there’s some real volatility there as well. Overall, I think the risk might slightly outweigh the reward, but I do admire the Twins for taking some unique chances, and for acquiring the best prep pitcher in the class.

Oxtung
06-13-2013, 12:14 AM
Christopher Crawford wrote a nice long review of the Twins draft. Check it out!

2013 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/2013-draft-review-minnesota-twins/)

For those of you too lazy to read it all here is his final thought:

Again, a lot of averages, but again, that’s not a bad thing. Stewart has a chance to be the best player in the entire class, and with his fastball and slider already above-average pitches he could move (reasonably) quickly through the system. There’s a lot of if’s that could make this an even better class — if Eades can pitch like the front-line starter he’s shown at times, if Gonsalves is more like the guy we saw in the summer, if Navarreto can stay behind the plate — but there’s some real volatility there as well. Overall, I think the risk might slightly outweigh the reward, but I do admire the Twins for taking some unique chances, and for acquiring the best prep pitcher in the class.

I'm not really sure I get Crawford's point. He seems to think the Twins were pretty risky in taking several players later in the draft with big questions. But in my mind after the first round every pick is risky. If they're all risky then go with the one with a chance to be a very good player. What's the point in playing it safe in the 10th round? If he's one of the few who pan out you get a 4th OF?

clutterheart
06-13-2013, 12:29 AM
I'm not really sure I get Crawford's point. He seems to think the Twins were pretty risky in taking several players later in the draft with big questions. But in my mind after the first round every pick is risky. If they're all risky then go with the one with a chance to be a very good player. What's the point in playing it safe in the 10th round? If he's one of the few who pan out you get a 4th OF?

Actually his take is exactly like my take. I think the Twins took a huge amount of risks with this draft. For example: Stewart, Edes, Gonsalves, and that giant pitcher from Indiana.

All of these guys have a chance to be stars, or a chance to flame out in a big way.

The only guy I see as a "safe pick" is Turner who at the very least should be solid behind the plate. Most teams would've taken some guys without the question marks so they could at least make an impact in the minor league system. (Windle over Eades for example) But with Eades you have a guy who has a higher upside and the Twins decided to go for upside over safety.

It doesn't mean the Twins had a bad draft, it just means they took a lot of high risk/high reward type of guys. In 4 years, we might be saying "worst draft ever" or "amazing draft." I don't know if there is much in-between here.

cmathewson
06-13-2013, 01:14 AM
How is a professional scout offering his opinion irresponsible, or somehow worse that that?

It's irresponsible to offer an opinion that is nonsensical when you get paid to speak truth. I can see saying he thinks it's a reach, but his reasons are so preposterous, it bespeaks extreme bias.

ThePuck
06-13-2013, 05:21 PM
How is a professional scout offering his opinion irresponsible, or somehow worse that that?

Because those of us here know more about the prospects than him, duh :-)

cmb0252
06-14-2013, 01:09 AM
BA did a college world series preview and the Twins have 4 prospects in the tourney. Here are the notes from the article:

Eades (LSU)
Eades has electric stuff but inconsistent command, and he has not labored in the postseason (5 BB in 6.1 IP).

Slegers
DeMuth
Halstead (Indiana) :

Indiana is one of the nation’s most dangerous offensive teams, with seven regulars hitting better than .300. The Hoosiers rank 20th in the nation in batting, 21st in scoring, and ninth in doubles; DeMuth (24 2B).

DeMuth..........have five home runs apiece, so they are also capable of impacting games the long ball.

The Hoosiers are extremely aggressive on the basepaths, taking extra bases whenever possible and forcing opponents to make plays. Cureton (22 SB) and DeMuth (11 SB) are burners.

At least Indiana has experience on the left side of the infield, with a senior shortstop (Basil) and a junior third baseman (DeMuth)—although that duo has combined for 37 errors.

Halstead (4-4, 2.40) and Effross (6-1, 2.47) are the go-to options in the bullpen, with fastballs that reach the low 90s and decent breaking balls. Both of them were hittable last weekend, but their body of work is strong.

Indiana’s rotation is not overpowering, but it is solid. Slegers (9-1, 2.13) emerged as the Big Ten pitcher of the year but struggled in the super regional against Florida State. At 6-foot-10, his downward angle makes his high-80s fastball play up.

(NOTE: Slegers, DeMuth, and Halstead were the only Indiana players draft and were all drafted by the Twins.)

For the full article fallow the link below:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-world-series-preview/

mike wants wins
06-14-2013, 07:36 AM
I like that they took risks on upside. Way better than playing it safe. Go big, or go home is a good motto for the draft.