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View Full Version : Is Byron Buxton the Top Prospect in the Twins Organization?



Chris Schad
06-05-2013, 08:55 PM
The Byron Buxton hype train has been full speed ahead over the past week. I examined it and made his case as the top prospect in the organization.

Y! SPORTS (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/byron-buxton-overtaken-miguel-sano-top-prospect-minnesota-234300395.html)

30whales
06-06-2013, 12:09 AM
I don't think you need to make a case for him. He IS the best prospect in the organization.

Shane Wahl
06-06-2013, 12:14 AM
Yes. And I held out on him until this season. Watching video of this guy tells you all you need to know. But he is also putting up amazing stats. He just went off again tonight. This guy needs to be starting 2014 in New Britain.

snepp
06-06-2013, 12:25 AM
What's his ETA to Fort Myers? Will it happen immediately after their all-star game?

Shane Wahl
06-06-2013, 12:32 AM
What's his ETA to Fort Myers? Will it happen immediately after their all-star game?

Anything else is asinine.

Nick Nelson
06-06-2013, 12:43 AM
Buxton is great, but I don't think it's clear-cut that he's the best prospect in the organization. What Sano's doing in the FSL is insane. He is Babe-Ruthing that league at age 20.

Seth Stohs
06-06-2013, 12:49 AM
In my opinion, having seen both of them play in the Midwest League at about the same age, Buxton's the choice. I wouldn't have said that if I hadn't seen him. Sano's incredible and obviously would be the #1 prospect in about 80% of the organizations. In my mind, it's 1a and 1b, but if I have to pick one, it'd be Buxton.

Shane Wahl
06-06-2013, 12:52 AM
Buxton is great, but I don't think it's clear-cut that he's the best prospect in the organization. What Sano's doing in the FSL is insane. He is Babe-Ruthing that league at age 20.

And Buxton is Willie Mays-ing it in A-ball at 19. And there is no doubt about both his defensive ability and his ability to hit for average.

Imagine:

Hicks, RF
Mauer, C
Buxton, CF
Sano, 1B
Vargas, DH
Arcia, LF
Rosario, 2B
Plouffe/X, 3B
Santana/Beresford, SS

Red Bull
06-06-2013, 01:15 AM
In Trouts first season in CR he played 81 games, so far Buxton has played 53. I calculated Buxtons stats if he stayed on the same pace through 81 games and compared them to trout.

Trout- .362 AVG, 76 R, 113 H, 19 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 164 TB, 45 SB, .454 OBP, .526 SLG, .979 OPS

Buxton- .348 AVG, 89 R, 109 H, 18 2B, 11 3B, 11 HR, 61 RBI, 180 TB, 40 SB, .444 OBP, .578 SLG, 1.023 OPS

They have very similar numbers but Buxton is showing more power with more XBHs. Trout hit over 30 HR in his first season and is on pace for around 30 agains this year, so could Buxton be a 30+ HR hitter too? I think so, I think Buxton will be better than Trout overall too. Hopefully Buxton can continue to put up similar numbers or better numbers than Trout did as he moves up the system all the way into the bigs.

josecordoba
06-06-2013, 07:06 AM
Few Thoughts

1. I've thought Buxton was the Best Twins Prospect since they drafted him. Buxton is like Mike Trout in that he impacts the game in several different areas (Base-Running, Defense, Hitting) where as Miguel Sano has one special, special tool power. Both guys have MVP Upside.

2. On the current season-Sano's numbers are somewhat inflated by BABIP of .409. Sano doesn't project as a .340 hitter in the big leagues. Sano seems to project as more of .290/.380/.570 type of guy in the bigs on a consistent basis.

3. On the Buxton-Trout Comp. Trout was Six Months younger when starting his season at Low A. In the grand scheme of things this might not seem like much (but it's noteworthy).

Cap'n Piranha
06-06-2013, 07:36 AM
What's his ETA to Fort Myers? Will it happen immediately after their all-star game?

MWL All-Star game is on June 18. I would expect Buxton to be batting leadoff on June 19 or 20 in Fort Myers. He probably won't get to share the field with Sano, however, as the FSL All-Star game is on the 15th. The only way he would is if the Twins brass wants to start Sano off in New Britain, and not on the road, as the Cats have a 9-game road trip from the 18th through the 26th..

Gernzy
06-06-2013, 07:57 AM
He is definatly number one. Just check all the #buxtonfacts from Twitter last night. Those were great!

drjim
06-06-2013, 08:02 AM
Buxton will be the #1 prospect in baseball at the end of the season.

Thrylos
06-06-2013, 08:11 AM
Until Buxton can do what he does now at Fort Myers, Sano is the better prospect.

crarko
06-06-2013, 08:28 AM
Buxton or Sano? I bet a lot of teams wish they had that tough decision to make.

JB_Iowa
06-06-2013, 08:32 AM
In the long run, it really doesn't matter. 25 years from now, most fans will not care about who the better prospect was in 2013 (okay, many fans don't really care now).

Fans will care about when the player came up to the majors and about the length and success of his major league career.

Yes, I know that y'all need something to discuss and argue about but despite all the attention, they are all still kids (okay, REALLY young men). A lot can happen between now and their arrival in mlb. And, A LOT more can and must happen before they have a successful career. I guess it is a way for you to fill column inches but meaningless in the real scheme of things -- KC has had a lot of "prospects" -- it is how those prospects mature AND what the team does with them, that matters.

ericchri
06-06-2013, 08:34 AM
Does it matter? :p

We have two ridiculously good prospects, and which one is better doesn't make much difference to me. The raving about Buxton going on is pretty cool, but man, Sano is just crushing what is supposed to be a pitchers' league. Those two in the same lineup someday should be a lot of fun.

cmathewson
06-06-2013, 08:52 AM
In my opinion, having seen both of them play in the Midwest League at about the same age, Buxton's the choice. I wouldn't have said that if I hadn't seen him. Sano's incredible and obviously would be the #1 prospect in about 80% of the organizations. In my mind, it's 1a and 1b, but if I have to pick one, it'd be Buxton.

I agree with this. I thought Sano was the clear choice going into this season. But Buxton has tools that Sano can't touch. I think of Buxton as the future number 3 hitter and center fielder to overshadow all center fielders in Twins history. I think of Sano as the clean-up hitter and third baseman to overshadow all third basemen in Twins history. They're the two best prospects we've had since Mauer. But if I have to choose, I'd choose the guy with the tools who plays a premium position.

jay
06-06-2013, 08:59 AM
Nice article, Chris.

I'd have to agree that he's overtaken Sano, but only by a slight margin. Safe to say we're all pretty excited to see the both of them arrive in Minneapolis.

kab21
06-06-2013, 09:02 AM
I gave Sano the nod this offseason since he had excelled in full season ball while Buxton was only a great scouting report with mixed rk ball success. Buxton has pulled into the lead now but both of these prospects are top 10 overall prospects which is awesome.

Will anyone that was ranking Buxton 5th in the Twins org or lower this offseason come forward?

Ozziedavisfan
06-06-2013, 09:36 AM
I think it really depends what you value more in a prospect.If you like five tool prospects buxton your guy. Power hitters Sano. It's like trying to ask who's better ( babe ruth or mickey mantle, and no I'm not comparing them to two HOF that would be stupid) Personally, I as much as I love Sano, I have to say that just because the defence that Bux provides he's probably going to do more for you organization than Sano if the turn out the way that they are supposed to turn out. However have the two best prospects in baseball is pretty cool.

joeboo_22
06-06-2013, 11:01 AM
I'd say Sano but only because of position. IF Sano can't play 3B its obviously Buxton. Both are very good prospects but tearing up the mid-west league and tearing up the FSL are totally different. I don't think it matters though, the Twins need to promote these guys

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-06-2013, 11:25 AM
The real question is, now that Profar is up in the bigs, is Buxton the best prospect in all of baseball?

Methinks, yes.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-06-2013, 11:26 AM
I'd say Sano but only because of position. IF Sano can't play 3B its obviously Buxton. Both are very good prospects but tearing up the mid-west league and tearing up the FSL are totally different. I don't think it matters though, the Twins need to promote these guys
Huh?

SS> C >CF > 2B > 3B >LF/RF/1b

kab21
06-06-2013, 11:27 AM
I'd say Sano but only because of position. IF Sano can't play 3B its obviously Buxton. Both are very good prospects but tearing up the mid-west league and tearing up the FSL are totally different. I don't think it matters though, the Twins need to promote these guys

Another argument is that Buxton is performing much better than Sano did in the same league (different home park) last year. Or that prospect rankings take more into account than just stats. It is basically splitting hairs at this point though.

ashburyjohn
06-06-2013, 11:38 AM
And Buxton is Willie Mays-ing it in A-ball at 19.

At 6 months older, Willie Mays was Willie Mays-ing it (1.300+ OPS) in AAA, not 1.000+ OPS in A. That's a big difference. I'm a Buxton fan but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

IdahoPilgrim
06-06-2013, 12:10 PM
I actually approach this question a little differently than most people - I'm always a little hesitant to get my hopes up too much based on Single-A results. I've seen those flame out and die in the high minors too often. My approach combines raw potential with actually being closer to making a difference at the parent club.

I'm really looking forward to seeing what Sano can do in New Britain. Right now, though, I'm more interested in following Alex Meyer and Kyle Gibson.

Ncgo4
06-06-2013, 12:42 PM
Buxton is leading in BA/OBP. Sano is leading in HR & RBI. Each is near the top in everything else. Do you value speed over raw power? Don't think so. Until they play in the same league together a slight edge to Sano because of his power lead.

Seth Stohs
06-06-2013, 12:53 PM
2. On the current season-Sano's numbers are somewhat inflated by BABIP of .409. Sano doesn't project as a .340 hitter in the big leagues. Sano seems to project as more of .290/.380/.570 type of guy in the bigs on a consistent basis.


Yes, I would be OK with a .950 OPS guy, that would be pretty awesome!

Seth Stohs
06-06-2013, 12:55 PM
The danger in a thread like this is that we tend to almost negate on to tout the other. In reality, both are tremendous prospects and the Twins, and us as fans, should be thrilled with them!

Turd Furgeson
06-06-2013, 01:44 PM
Buxton is great, but I don't think it's clear-cut that he's the best prospect in the organization. What Sano's doing in the FSL is insane. He is Babe-Ruthing that league at age 20.

Buxton's the best prospect in our system and very close to the best player in all of the minors, if he isn't already. Sano has the 80 power, but Buxton has the louder tools overall and projects to play an up the middle position.

Turd Furgeson
06-06-2013, 01:49 PM
Huh?

SS> C >CF > 2B > 3B >LF/RF/1b

Catcher is ahead of Shortstop, and 3B might be ahead of 2B but otherwise I agree.

ashburyjohn
06-06-2013, 02:08 PM
Catcher is ahead of Shortstop, and 3B might be ahead of 2B but otherwise I agree.

Bill James was the first I saw to point out that you can construct that ordering of positions based on how low a player's offense can go before he loses his starting job there. Catcher is so different from all the other positions that it's hard to picture it being on any spectrum at all, but in a world where a Drew Butera doesn't get DFAed it says a lot toward putting C all the way to the left. I don't think a manager will put up with as low an OPS from his third baseman as from his second baseman, so I can't go along with you in putting those two close or in opposite order.

cmb0252
06-06-2013, 02:12 PM
Parks over at baseball prospectus wrote a poem about Buxton.


Baseball Prospectus | BP Unfiltered: Buxton-ing (a poem) (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20860&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

cmathewson
06-06-2013, 02:21 PM
Bill James was the first I saw to point out that you can construct that ordering of positions based on how low a player's offense can go before he loses his starting job there. Catcher is so different from all the other positions that it's hard to picture it being on any spectrum at all, but in a world where a Drew Butera doesn't get DFAed it says a lot toward putting C all the way to the left. I don't think a manager will put up with as low an OPS from his third baseman as from his second baseman, so I can't go along with you in putting those two close or in opposite order.

I'm not that keen on the James calculation because it is mostly based on offensive value. A lot of teams put big guys at first base because it's the only position they can play, especially in the NL. That doesn't mean the position is less important defensively than, say LF.

Catcher is the most valuable position despite the fact that the numerical analysis of catching effectiveness is less accurate than any other position. The only other guy on the field who has more to do with preventing runs is the pitcher.

That's how I define defensive value; How many outs does the position typically influence? If that's the criterion, I'd rank it this way: P>C>SS>CF>2B>3B>1B>RF/LF

Part of that is tied to level of difficulty. 3B is tougher than 1B because of the throw. But part of it is how often a guy touches the ball. I put a higher value on 1B than most because he touches the ball a lot and can either save or cause a lot of errors.

johnnydakota
06-06-2013, 02:30 PM
Anything else is asinine.

Look who is running the asylem, same guy who kept Drew Butera over Joe Benson...

amjgt
06-06-2013, 02:38 PM
On Keith Law's chat today he reiterated the Eric Davis comp after someone asked if he'd like to revise that comp.

Law said "if Eric Davis stays health he would have been a HOFer." Now, Eric Davis is a bit before my time (especially since he was NL), so I went to good old Baseball Reference and looked up Davis.

Holy Crap.

1987 was quite a year (even with 30 games missed).

Shane Wahl
06-06-2013, 03:20 PM
At 6 months older, Willie Mays was Willie Mays-ing it (1.300+ OPS) in AAA, not 1.000+ OPS in A. That's a big difference. I'm a Buxton fan but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

My post was in response to the "Babe Ruth" comment about Sano. Is Sano as good as Babe Ruth at age 20? Obviously not, but you would rather respond to the Mays-Buxton comment. Gotcha.

Shane Wahl
06-06-2013, 03:23 PM
If I had the knowledge to construct a list for all prospects, I bet Buxton and Sano would be separated by no more than 5 spots. So it doesn't really matter, as Seth says.

drjim
06-06-2013, 03:46 PM
If I had the knowledge to construct a list for all prospects, I bet Buxton and Sano would be separated by no more than 5 spots. So it doesn't really matter, as Seth says.

Law recently did an update with Buxton #2 (behind Taveras of StL) and Sano #6.

Turd Furgeson
06-06-2013, 04:01 PM
The spots may be close, but within the rankings of prospects, there are also tiers. Buxton is likely in a different tier than Sano. Trust me, Sano has been one of my favorite prospects for years now. I remember arguing with Kab21 over at a different site about his Miguel Sano-Angel Villalona comp a few years ago. Buxton just has some very loud tools that project to be better than Sano's tools.

ashburyjohn
06-06-2013, 05:19 PM
My post was in response to the "Babe Ruth" comment about Sano. Is Sano as good as Babe Ruth at age 20? Obviously not, but you would rather respond to the Mays-Buxton comment. Gotcha.

Fair enough. I missed the forest for the trees.

Thrylos
06-06-2013, 05:30 PM
Part of that is tied to level of difficulty. 3B is tougher than 1B because of the throw. But part of it is how often a guy touches the ball. I put a higher value on 1B than most because he touches the ball a lot and can either save or cause a lot of errors.

The easiest position to play is second base, not corner OF, not 1B, not 3B.