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View Full Version : Article: Seth's Pre-Draft Twins Top 52 Prospects



Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 07:39 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1804-Seth-s-Pre-Draft-Twins-Top-52-Prospects

Rick Niedermann
05-30-2013, 08:07 AM
This article made my day. Paints a bright future for the Twins. Though a few years away, I like our chances of finally finding long term middle infielders from the mix of Polanco, Santana, Goodrum and Michael. Only a few years ago Nate Roberts, Daniel Ortiz would be rated much higher. Shows you how much the minor leagues have improved. Still hoping Hermsen can turn it around following his injury and eventually be a 4/5 rotation guy or that Wimmers will follow Gibson to health and effectiveness. Exciting future for the Twins.

birdwatcher
05-30-2013, 08:10 AM
It's always a pleasure to read your lists, Seth. Thank you.

big dog
05-30-2013, 08:35 AM
Great to read about these intriguing players. Even with the inevitable injuries and failures there's enough talent to make the next few years really exciting.

mike wants wins
05-30-2013, 08:37 AM
Gibson has to be the top pitcher, he's the only one on the list we know with any certainty is actually a MLB starting pitcher. I get that others have more upside, but I would put him higher. I feel the same about Thielbar....the guy has already been good in the majors, he's got to be above other guys in A we know/think will be relievers.

There are clearly some hitters that could be promoted soon. I hope the guys you list get that opportunity. I'm tired of AAA being AAAA guys with no future, though I know that's how it can be for many teams.

The upside guys are exciting. Starting with Bill Smith's international signings, this minor league system has improved. Of course, you would expect that with the MLB being awful and getting high picks.

I really like that you still have Wimmers high. I'm still a believer that things can work out with him. It would be great if he was on the Gibson route (if a bit faster to come up). As usual, this is one of the highlights of the site to me. Great detail, great writing, really a great list.

BCTwins
05-30-2013, 08:45 AM
How do you see Wimmers, your #16 prospect, fit into the rotation of the future? If Gibson is an ideal 2, does that mean Wimmers is an ideal 3/4? In any case, I'm just curious: with so much talk about the rotation, I often forget about this former 1st rounder.

Boone
05-30-2013, 09:10 AM
Although he system is full of 2B prospects (Rosario and Polanco) and SS prospects who will probably have to play 2B for defensive reasons (Santana and Michael), it lacks a true SS prospect who as a good chance of making it to the majors (sorry Niko). Any chance that Mejia can fill that role? He has MI experience, a good portion of his starts have come at 3B which seems to indicate that he has a strong arm, and his base-stealing ability indicates that he has good speed which might mean he has good range.

lightfoot789
05-30-2013, 09:12 AM
I love that 6 of the Top 15 prospects on this list are from Cedar Rapids. You also have to love the depth in the outfield with Buxton; Arcia; Kepler; Walker; & Ortiz; (not to mention Hicks already there). There are even more guys who I didn't mention who have a solid chance. Between that group - That OF position looks to be high quality for years to come. DO NOT take an outfielder in draft - No one is Buxton worthy in this years draft and we could use help in so many other position areas first. There are some sleeper Pitchers and Catchers on the board too.

Gene Larkin Fan Club
05-30-2013, 09:44 AM
I love the info and I'm excited about the state the organization. Seems like we have a solid number of pitching prospects and may be able to draft the best players available rather than focus only on drafting pitchers who wouldn't likely be ready for the big club for a number of years anyway...

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 09:44 AM
How do you see Wimmers, your #16 prospect, fit into the rotation of the future? If Gibson is an ideal 2, does that mean Wimmers is an ideal 3/4? In any case, I'm just curious: with so much talk about the rotation, I often forget about this former 1st rounder.

When he, like Gibson, was drafted late in the 2010 first round, Wimmers was said to be a #3 type. If not for the injury and Tommy John, he might already be here. yeah, he's a 3/4 if he comes back at 100% to what he was pre-injury.

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 09:47 AM
Although he system is full of 2B prospects (Rosario and Polanco) and SS prospects who will probably have to play 2B for defensive reasons (Santana and Michael), it lacks a true SS prospect who as a good chance of making it to the majors (sorry Niko). Any chance that Mejia can fill that role? He has MI experience, a good portion of his starts have come at 3B which seems to indicate that he has a strong arm, and his base-stealing ability indicates that he has good speed which might mean he has good range.

I think Santana and Goodrum, and maybe even Polanco, could be big league SS. Mejia hasn't really played enough to know what his best position is. Even in the GCL, he's moved around a bit. And, he's already 21. He does have good speed and range, and can play SS. I just am not comfortable comparing him to Santana and Goodrum yet.

birdwatcher
05-30-2013, 09:53 AM
mike wants wins, if you expect the Twins to have an improved farm system because they have had high picks for two years now, why didn't you expect the opposite after low picks for the eight previous years instead of ripping the Twins for being crappy at drafting? Isn't that a bit hypocritical on your part? You want it both ways, don't you?

And again, Bill Smith never got on a plane, sat through many ball games in the sweltering heat, and decided to sign Polanco. And he didn't decide to spend more money on international players. But I bet he was in the room for some of thoe conversations.

mnfanforlife
05-30-2013, 09:56 AM
Great list! Thank you for ranking ZJones and Pinto in appropriate places. I also rank Polanco at #9....
1. Baxendale had a "rood" awakening?
2. Jones can touch 10?
3. way to be aggressive with Vargas
4. I agree Buxton is the #1 Twins prospect....but what Sano is doing is just ridiculous.


Again...awesome prospect list by someone who knows whats up

IdahoPilgrim
05-30-2013, 09:59 AM
mike wants wins, if you expect the Twins to have an improved farm system because they have had high picks for two years now, why didn't you expect the opposite after low picks for the eight previous years instead of ripping the Twins for being crappy at drafting? Isn't that a bit hypocritical on your part? You want it both ways, don't you?

And again, Bill Smith never got on a plane, sat through many ball games in the sweltering heat, and decided to sign Polanco. And he didn't decide to spend more money on international players. But I bet he was in the room for some of thoe conversations.

Is this in response to his earlier post on this thread? I thought that was actually well written with good points.

beckmt
05-30-2013, 10:12 AM
Nice to see some of the pitching is coming. Now for the next 2-3 years, we still need help there. Be interesting to see who is taken in the draft. SS does not seem so bad now, and Florimon and Escobar seem to be OK there.

Twins Twerp
05-30-2013, 10:36 AM
What about last year's Dominican Signee Minier? Too soon to rank him. For the bonus he got you've got to think he could be a top 50 guy right, if not for the only fact that he got such a large bonus?

DAM DC Twins Fans
05-30-2013, 10:42 AM
great article--interesting list of prospects--a little disappointed you didn't include Brett Lee but I guess his last 2 starts did that. Still think he has future at LH bullpen guy. Interesting how many of these guys are at Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers--will be fun watching them develop.

beehles
05-30-2013, 10:45 AM
Any word on when some of these prospects will be seeing the field again: Kepler, Roberts, Bard? Thanks for the list Seth, a very fun read!

Tired MN Fan
05-30-2013, 10:49 AM
I didn't see Liam Hendricks on the list. Is he no longer an option?

johnnydakota
05-30-2013, 11:40 AM
I didn't see Liam Hendricks on the list. Is he no longer an option?

To many innings in the majors, to qualify perhaps?

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 11:57 AM
What about last year's Dominican Signee Minier? Too soon to rank him. For the bonus he got you've got to think he could be a top 50 guy right, if not for the only fact that he got such a large bonus?

I mentioned him in the last paragraph. I'm not going to rank him until he plays in the states (which he most likely will do with the GCL team next month). But yes, his signing bonus gets him ranked pretty high... but obviously that signing bonus was based on some impressive tools which hopefully will present themselves!

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 11:58 AM
I didn't see Liam Hendricks on the list. Is he no longer an option?

He's thrown 118.1 innings with the Twins.

righty8383
05-30-2013, 12:18 PM
I mentioned him in the last paragraph. I'm not going to rank him until he plays in the states (which he most likely will do with the GCL team next month). But yes, his signing bonus gets him ranked pretty high... but obviously that signing bonus was based on some impressive tools which hopefully will present themselves!

Given his age, it seems likely he spends most, if not the whole year in the DSL

maxisagod
05-30-2013, 12:43 PM
And again, Bill Smith never got on a plane, sat through many ball games in the sweltering heat, and decided to sign Polanco. And he didn't decide to spend more money on international players. But I bet he was in the room for some of thoe conversations.

That's not completely true. The Twins scouts did identified Kepler and Polanco and payed then highly. Bill Smith might be a more "in the room guy" for them. Sano on the other hand, was outside the Twins usually International budget by the point he was ready to sign. The story goes, Sano's agent called The Twins directly and told him his price, Smith said okay it but only if Sano's agent didn't use their bid to try to parlay it into a bigger bid from another team. Sano's agent honored their agreement (even though he got A LOT of flack from the Pirates for not giving them a chance to get in a final bid). So I give Bill Smith at least some credit on getting Sano. Part of Bill Smith current job with the Twins is improving relations with Latin America. So the Twins must think that was a positive part of his regime too.

Badsmerf
05-30-2013, 12:50 PM
You have Felix Jorge really low IMO. I know he's still young and raw, but the kid has some nice upside. I hope he can pitch well enough to see Cedar Rapids this year... but that might be wishful thinking. I'd have him higher on my list based solely on upside.

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 01:19 PM
Given his age, it seems likely he spends most, if not the whole year in the DSL

He certainly could. With Sano and Polanco, they had them begin play in the DSL and then when the GCL season started, they moved them there.

rickyhawaii
05-30-2013, 02:02 PM
will be interesting to see what Malinowski will do this year. Sam Gibbons, Chi-Wei Hu, and Lewis Thorpe also.

cmb0252
05-30-2013, 03:05 PM
Great work like always Seth. Having two guys that are legitimate #1 prospects in Buxton/Sano is exciting. Hopefully the Twins can steal another top prospect in this upcoming draft.

SoCalTwinsfan
05-30-2013, 03:40 PM
A little surprised that Rogers is ranked ahead of Baxendale given that Baxendale was drafted ahead of Rogers and is a level ahead of him in the minors. Plus, Baxendale has had terrific numbers.

Also, seems like a high number of the top prospects weren't even in the system a year ago.

Shane Wahl
05-30-2013, 04:21 PM
If some more people want to constuct such a list, I will compile them into a "super list" for TD.

adjacent
05-30-2013, 04:46 PM
Thank you for this very informative list. One thing I noticed is that you didn't include Delbinson Romero. I know he probable is not a top prospect, but I thought that he could make the top 52, considering that there are not many above them for the position (there is a huge 20-year old coming underneath him, but you don't need me to tell you that).

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 04:47 PM
A little surprised that Rogers is ranked ahead of Baxendale given that Baxendale was drafted ahead of Rogers and is a level ahead of him in the minors. Plus, Baxendale has had terrific numbers.

Also, seems like a high number of the top prospects weren't even in the system a year ago.

I kind of figured someone might notice that... Reasoning... 1.) Roger's is left-handed, 2.) Roger's throws a little harder, 3.) Roger's has a very good slider.

Of course, one ranking spot is pretty much meaningless. Certainly no slight at Baxendale who has been tremendous.

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 04:54 PM
Thank you for this very informative list. One thing I noticed is that you didn't include Delbinson Romero. I know he probable is not a top prospect, but I thought that he could make the top 52, considering that there are not many above them for the position (there is a huge 20-year old coming underneath him, but you don't need me to tell you that).

That's probably a miss, and who knows, there may be others. He should probably be somewhere in the high 30s or so. He did hit 19 homers in AA last year. he was invited to minor league camp. He is now one step away, with Plouffe getting hurt he could be up sometime if they want to add him. He's also (I believe) 26. But, he was probably a miss.

Badsmerf
05-30-2013, 04:56 PM
Seth, did you get to see Rogers and Baxendale? I haven't watched any video of these two yet, and basically only have the misc. scouting reports that have come out and results to go by. How much likelihood do you see them making it to the MLB as starters? These college guys are tough to judge in the lower levels...

Shane Wahl
05-30-2013, 04:58 PM
I missed Randy Rosario, Lo, and Jorge myself. And Romero. I am not sure what to think about him at the moment. I guess I wouldn't mind trading Plouffe away for 200-300 prospect talent in order to give him a chance at third for the moment.

Shane Wahl
05-30-2013, 04:59 PM
I think Baxendale is more likely than Rogers.

Twins Fan From Afar
05-30-2013, 06:13 PM
Great list, Seth. I like the aggressive placement of Alex Wimmers.
Some fans act as if he's dead. He's simply rehabbing Tommy John. Yes, he's had physical and mental issues since being drafted, but there's no reason to think that he can't become a major league minimum salaried #3 or 4 starter.

Thrylos
05-30-2013, 06:32 PM
Those lists are more of an art than a science, but I think that Baxendale is way too low and (you got to admit that if he were not a Gopher :) ) Mike Kvasnicka does not belong in the list. Colabello and Slama are better prospects (and they are not prospects.)

YourHouseIsMyHouse
05-30-2013, 06:50 PM
Baxendale is certainly a top 15 guy in my mind. I'm still not on board this Vargas train and I think you're underrating the Stache aka Nate Roberts by a mile. Wimmers was very aggressive as well. I don't like the "first round" pick argument because look where Levi Michael is at. Wimmers has a long ways to go and I strongly doubt he's a better bet/talent than quite a few of the guys beneath him at this stage. Otherwise, I would say I have to agree with this for the most part. No omissions, the rest are all in the range I expect, and good work.

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 07:05 PM
Seth, did you get to see Rogers and Baxendale? I haven't watched any video of these two yet, and basically only have the misc. scouting reports that have come out and results to go by. How much likelihood do you see them making it to the MLB as starters? These college guys are tough to judge in the lower levels...

At the end of last season, I went to Beloit for 4 games. The only starter I didn't see for the Snappers... was Taylor Rogers. However, he was the opening night starter for Cedar Rapids this year. Very impressive through three or four innings before giving up some when his pitches got up there.

Last year, I saw Baxendale pitch (I believe) two innings out of the Beloit bullpen. Also impressive, but he was throwing low 90s and flashing a very hard, sharp slider.

It's hard to make too much out of college numbers in the low levels. I do think success/dominance in Ft. Myers is a positive, but it truly is a case where you have to see what they give when they get to AA. That said, both are just 22, so they're not at all old for the Florida State League.

Also, these guys were the 10th and 11th round picks a year ago. They aren't in the same category as the picks from the first or second round. I think both CAN BE mid-rotation guys and that would be great! Long ways to go for each.

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 07:08 PM
Great list, Seth. I like the aggressive placement of Alex Wimmers.
Some fans act as if he's dead. He's simply rehabbing Tommy John. Yes, he's had physical and mental issues since being drafted, but there's no reason to think that he can't become a major league minimum salaried #3 or 4 starter.

I generally ranked Wimmers in the 10-12 range when he was healthy, so moving him to the upper-teens, I think, makes sense. You're right, he's out due to injury. I didn't drop Gibson much when he got hurt. Why would I drop Wimmers much more. If he comes back at 100%, there's no reason he can't be a #3/4 type of pitcher... which justifies where he is in the rankings.

Seth Stohs
05-30-2013, 07:14 PM
Those lists are more of an art than a science, but I think that Baxendale is way too low and (you got to admit that if he were not a Gopher :) ) Mike Kvasnicka does not belong in the list. Colabello and Slama are better prospects (and they are not prospects.)

Propect rankings should never be science. They should be gut feel based on several factors.

And, I don't just have Kvasnicka on there because he is a Minnesotan and former Gopher. He's a former 1st round pick with power. It's not like I have him ranked very high. When he returns from the injury and gets back to 100%, we'll see how it goes.

clutterheart
05-30-2013, 10:32 PM
Seth
Very intersted in what you wrote about Eddie Rosario:

Still some maturity issues to work through, but he will.

I have never heard anything like this before. Any specifics you want to share?

I wish they would Push Randy Rosario. Last time I checked he has not let up a homer in his professional career. An extreme ground ball, hard throwing lefty is very intriguing.
He is the prospect I keep looking for and wish to hell they would push him.

jokin
05-30-2013, 11:17 PM
Seth
Very intersted in what you wrote about Eddie Rosario:


I have never heard anything like this before. Any specifics you want to share?

I wish they would Push Randy Rosario. Last time I checked he has not let up a homer in his professional career. An extreme ground ball, hard throwing lefty is very intriguing.
He is the prospect I keep looking for and wish to hell they would push him.

Held out of several games last week as punishment for lack of focus and hustle in-game.

Seth Stohs
05-31-2013, 12:12 AM
Yeah, that's a big part of it. Rosario is very good, and he knows it. There is that fine line between confidence and cockiness that Rosario butts up against at times. Mientkiewicz hopefully took care of some of that on field last week. We saw the same thing with Sano tonight, so we'll see if he sits for a game or two.

Otwins
05-31-2013, 12:52 AM
Nice to see some of the pitching is coming. Now for the next 2-3 years, we still need help there. Be interesting to see who is taken in the draft. SS does not seem so bad now, and Florimon and Escobar seem to be OK there.

Glad to see this comment. The more I watch those two play the better I feel about our shortstop position. I really think we have two players there that seem to be improving. Starting Pitching is what we need. I doubt that May will be a major league starter. Seems to me that he will end up as a reliever.

wagwan
05-31-2013, 04:10 AM
In this list of 52, there are 23 starting pitchers, 6 relievers, 7 middle infielders, 4 corner infielders, 4 catchers and 8 outfielders. And you can see a big league future for almost every one of them. What this shows is there really isn't a position of need in the system. Everything is covered. So the Twins definitely should take the best player available no matter who it is.

birdwatcher
05-31-2013, 07:33 AM
That's not completely true. The Twins scouts did identified Kepler and Polanco and payed then highly. Bill Smith might be a more "in the room guy" for them. Sano on the other hand, was outside the Twins usually International budget by the point he was ready to sign. The story goes, Sano's agent called The Twins directly and told him his price, Smith said okay it but only if Sano's agent didn't use their bid to try to parlay it into a bigger bid from another team. Sano's agent honored their agreement (even though he got A LOT of flack from the Pirates for not giving them a chance to get in a final bid). So I give Bill Smith at least some credit on getting Sano. Part of Bill Smith current job with the Twins is improving relations with Latin America. So the Twins must think that was a positive part of his regime too.
I agree completely with this, but it doesn't refute the point I'm making. Giving Billy Smith COMPLETE credit for the success the Twins are having in the international arena is total nonsense. And while Smith should get partial credit for the Sano signing, there's no evidence whatsoever that allows one to conclude that he acted alone in the decision-making on this. And logic would tell us that, given the sheer number of people employed in the scouting department, that a lot of people deserve partial credit and that at least one or two deserve more credit that the GM for Sano's signing, and certainly for the rest of the success. Why would one conclude that Sano would not have signed if someone other than Smith was GM? mike wants wins and others, in my opinion, aren't trying to credit Smith so much as they're trying to promote their narrative by baselessly discredit Ryan.

Seth Stohs
05-31-2013, 11:02 AM
In this list of 52, there are 23 starting pitchers, 6 relievers, 7 middle infielders, 4 corner infielders, 4 catchers and 8 outfielders. And you can see a big league future for almost every one of them. What this shows is there really isn't a position of need in the system. Everything is covered. So the Twins definitely should take the best player available no matter who it is.

So, they should just skip the draft completely... they don't need anyone... Ha! I think you make a good point. There may be big league potential in all of them, but generally speaking, only maybe the top 5 prospects in any ranking will be impact types. Those in that 6-18 range can be regulars, mid-to-back rotation types and quality bullpen arms. After that, you're talking about role players, cups of coffee, etc. (except for the really young types that I'm not ready to move up yet).

At the end of the day, somewhere around 10 of them will get to the big leagues and we hope that 3-4 of them are impact. The Twins system is nice though. I believe that the first 7-9 can be real impact types, and a lot of them can be role players.

righty8383
06-01-2013, 08:46 PM
He certainly could. With Sano and Polanco, they had them begin play in the DSL and then when the GCL season started, they moved them there.

Hmm, so the DSL started today and Minier is not on the Twins' roster. Interesting, I would have bet my next paycheck that he would at least start is pro career in the DSL. Given his age and the fact that he is a product of the DR.

30whales
06-01-2013, 10:54 PM
Are you planning on doing another one of these after the draft?

Seth Stohs
06-01-2013, 11:16 PM
Are you planning on doing another one of these after the draft?

No, not until following the season, like a preliminary one. Then the final one will again be in the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook next January.

Seth Stohs
06-01-2013, 11:17 PM
Hmm, so the DSL started today and Minier is not on the Twins' roster. Interesting, I would have bet my next paycheck that he would at least start is pro career in the DSL. Given his age and the fact that he is a product of the DR.

Well, he was at Instructional League last year, and they gave him money, so I'm not completely surprised, though I too would have guessed he would spend a little bit of time there.

2wins87
06-02-2013, 05:08 AM
If some more people want to constuct such a list, I will compile them into a "super list" for TD.

Sounds fun. I've been trying to keep a twins prospect board this year as it's a good way to follow the minor leaguers

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 01:37 PM
Interesting look at BA's top 100, which several of the guys made BA's list, success rate. For those too lazy to read here is the summary and it's good news:

"I threw a lot of graphs out there, but the biggest takeaway is the second one: nearly 80% of the top 100 players in recent seasons were ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America. Of all the talk about failure rates (12% of prospects don't even get to the majors, only 69% fail to put up a career WAR over 10), the fine folks at BA are really good at finding the top players."

Full article here:

How Well Does the Baseball America Prospect Top 100 Estimate the Top 100 Future Players? - Beyond the Box Score (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top)