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Twins Fan From Afar
05-23-2013, 02:28 PM
I tweeted this a couple hours ago, but will also share here:
Hearing rumblings that Sano will join the Rock Cats in a few weeks. FSL All-Star game is June 15....

John Bonnes
05-23-2013, 02:37 PM
FYI - Andrew has been covering the New Britain Rock Cats for us.

Seth Stohs
05-23-2013, 02:38 PM
I tweeted back to you saying that it means he'll be moving up to New Britain June 16. Several will move up to FM from Cedar Rapids at that time too.

InfraRen
05-23-2013, 02:38 PM
Good deal!

jorgenswest
05-23-2013, 03:01 PM
Arcia moved up at that time last year.

Shane Wahl
05-23-2013, 03:05 PM
If the Twins really want to reward productivity, a few dozen players should be moving around that time (some of them immediately after the draft and the short seasons beginning).

Twins Twerp
05-23-2013, 03:07 PM
I promise this is my last burn, but I sure hope Thylos wasn't the source of those rumblings. Also, I would be shocked if Sano AND Buxton didn't get call ups after all-star games. Shocked. I would also put my house (ok 1 bedroom apartment I pay rent on) that Rosario will be moved up. I would bet the over that Walker moves up to Ft. Myers. The 2 AA pitchers, I would think stay the entire year.

Twins Fan From Afar
05-23-2013, 03:13 PM
Poor thrylos. Lol.

ThePuck
05-23-2013, 03:15 PM
Poor thrylos. Lol.

yeah, it's only been how many months since that happened...but as long as it makes someone feel good, that's what counts...it's not like thrylos didn't get enough abuse for this a long time ago...

Seth Stohs
05-23-2013, 03:53 PM
Arcia moved up at that time last year.

That's what people forget. Arcia was in Ft. Myers at this time last year... But, the Twins traditionally promote 2-4 players from FM to NB after the All-Star game, and the same from CR to FM. They're earned the nod, no harm in letting them get that recognition. 3 weeks isn't going to hurt a guy.

jokin
05-23-2013, 03:59 PM
I promise this is my last burn, but I sure hope Thylos wasn't the source of those rumblings. Also, I would be shocked if Sano AND Buxton didn't get call ups after all-star games. Shocked. I would also put my house (ok 1 bedroom apartment I pay rent on) that Rosario will be moved up. I would bet the over that Walker moves up to Ft. Myers. The 2 AA pitchers, I would think stay the entire year.

Alex Meyer has the 2nd best FIP in the Eastern League (basically tied with Kevin Guasman, who debuts for the Orioles tonight). No reason to hold him back if spots open up above him.

nicksaviking
05-23-2013, 04:23 PM
Alex Meyer has the 2nd best FIP in the Eastern League (basically tied with Kevin Guasman, who debuts for the Orioles tonight). No reason to hold him back if spots open up above him.

Not possible, the 10 rotation spots above him in AAA and the majors are filled with rock solid starters.

I'd like to see the Twins keep the dynamic duos together. I like the Sano/Rosario pairing and the Buxton/Walker pairing. Keep them together to keep some continuity and hopefully they push each other knowing they don't want to get left behind a level when their buddy gets moved. Of course this only goes if promotions are deserved, which at this point they are.

jokin
05-23-2013, 04:31 PM
Not possible, the 10 rotation spots above him in AAA and the majors are filled with rock solid starters.

Of course this only goes if promotions are deserved, which at this point they are.

Sarcasm will get you nowhere on this board, the Twins apologists are apt to take you seriously!:D

Despite the unevenness of the M&M duo, I wouldn't be opposed to a joint promotion to AAA or to the Twins. Yesterday would suffice.

PseudoSABR
05-23-2013, 06:01 PM
Before promoting Meyer (and this is somewhat the case with Gibson as well), it's important for the Twins to assess what they have as far as filling out the rotation. And I imagine that's what they'll continue to do all season, until Sept. when we might see Meyer.

Twins Fan From Afar
05-23-2013, 06:52 PM
Alex Meyer has the 2nd best FIP in the Eastern League (basically tied with Kevin Guasman, who debuts for the Orioles tonight). No reason to hold him back if spots open up above him.

I've watched 2 of Meyer's starts in person. One last month, which I blogged about, and last night's. Neither were his best performances, so take that into account when you read the following:

Being completely honest, I think he still has work to do in AA. At times he's overpowering, and other times he loses control and composure, and becomes hittable. That being said, he's still our best pitching prospect. I'd be surprised if he lasted the entire season in New Britain, but I don't see him leaving after the Eastern League All-Star Game (being held in New Britain, by the way).

Twins Twerp
05-23-2013, 07:32 PM
Since we are talking prospects, how long will May be a starter? Seriously, if he were to have the same or worse control issues, how long to you keep trying him as a starter. I know you do everything in your power to keep him starting. But at what point do you put a guy in the bullpen? Or do you wait until he proves he can't be a starter in majors like Perkins? This should be a thread all by itself but I thought I would ask.

Twins Fan From Afar
05-23-2013, 07:39 PM
Since we are talking prospects, how long will May be a starter? Seriously, if he were to have the same or worse control issues, how long to you keep trying him as a starter. I know you do everything in your power to keep him starting. But at what point do you put a guy in the bullpen? Or do you wait until he proves he can't be a starter in majors like Perkins? This should be a thread all by itself but I thought I would ask.

That's a good question. Here's my uneducated opinion: especially considering this organization and the way we need SPs, you go as long as possible trying him as a starter. The control issue has to be solved, or contained, at some point, though, because he won't be effective as a reliever with this control problem, either.

markos
05-23-2013, 08:13 PM
I've seen one of Meyer's starts as well, and I completely agree with Andrew. He still needs to work on his game-to-game and inning-to-inning consistency.

drjim
05-23-2013, 09:25 PM
I've seen one of Meyer's starts as well, and I completely agree with Andrew. He still needs to work on his game-to-game and inning-to-inning consistency.

Are you not familiar with xFIP? Shouldn't that be driving all pitching promotion decisions?

drjim
05-23-2013, 09:27 PM
That's a good question. Here's my uneducated opinion: especially considering this organization and the way we need SPs, you go as long as possible trying him as a starter. The control issue has to be solved, or contained, at some point, though, because he won't be effective as a reliever with this control problem, either.

I agree with this. Keep him as long as possible, hope the light switch goes on. But he probably ends up as a back of the bullpen guy, which would be an acceptable (if not the best) outcome.

I have a feeling he might get a couple innings in Minnesota in September.

lightfoot789
05-23-2013, 09:43 PM
Who do you see leaving (promoted) at each respective level? and what happens to those individuals they replace? (cut / promoted as well)? Position players mainly?

Twins Fan From Afar
05-24-2013, 09:22 AM
Are you not familiar with xFIP? Shouldn't that be driving all pitching promotion decisions?

Absolutely it should be playing a big, big role, especially on this Rock Cats team where there seem to be a minimum of 2 errors each game.

But I have to say that the human/maturity elements are a factor as I think about pitcher promotions, especially for young guys like Meyer. How does Meyer or May respond when there's an error behind them? I.e., do they struggle with the next batter, throwing balls, etc. And that's kind of what I've seen with Meyer the 14 or so innings I've watched him throw.

drjim
05-24-2013, 09:40 AM
Absolutely it should be playing a big, big role, especially on this Rock Cats team where there seem to be a minimum of 2 errors each game.

But I have to say that the human/maturity elements are a factor as I think about pitcher promotions, especially for young guys like Meyer. How does Meyer or May respond when there's an error behind them? I.e., do they struggle with the next batter, throwing balls, etc. And that's kind of what I've seen with Meyer the 14 or so innings I've watched him throw.

I was kidding with my comment. I find the extent of conclusions drawn solely from stats around here to be a little much. I think the Twins are handling Meyer and May just fine.

On another note I really appreciate the coverage you provide.

Twins Fan From Afar
05-24-2013, 09:41 AM
I was kidding with my comment. I find the extent of conclusions drawn solely from stats around here to be a little much. I think the Twins are handling Meyer and May just fine.

On another note I really appreciate the coverage you provide.

Ha! Totally missed that. But yea, this is a stats-heavy group.
Thanks for the comment!

Shane Wahl
05-24-2013, 09:43 AM
Who do you see leaving (promoted) at each respective level? and what happens to those individuals they replace? (cut / promoted as well)? Position players mainly?

I would like to see a number of players promoted soon, from Sano and Buxton to Pinto and Koch. I would promote upwards and then get rid of the rampant filler at Rochester (Olmedo, Fryer, Thomas, Bernier, etc.).

nicksaviking
05-24-2013, 09:54 AM
I was kidding with my comment. I find the extent of conclusions drawn solely from stats around here to be a little much. I think the Twins are handling Meyer and May just fine.

On another note I really appreciate the coverage you provide.

The front office agrees. They think xFIP is Trevor May's new DJ pseudonym.

lightfoot789
05-24-2013, 10:14 AM
I would like to see a number of players promoted soon, from Sano and Buxton to Pinto and Koch. I would promote upwards and then get rid of the rampant filler at Rochester (Olmedo, Fryer, Thomas, Bernier, etc.).

Does the higher level prospect have to be expendable before they promote from below? or do you see some upcoming scenerio where some higher level prospects might hinder the promotion of lower level guys? Will some draft choices be made just to fill roster spots at lower levels, becasue of projected promotions?

drjim
05-24-2013, 10:38 AM
The front office agrees. They think xFIP is Trevor May's new DJ pseudonym.

Now you assume the Twins FO knows something about music?

Shane Wahl
05-24-2013, 10:39 AM
Does the higher level prospect have to be expendable before they promote from below? or do you see some upcoming scenerio where some higher level prospects might hinder the promotion of lower level guys? Will some draft choices be made just to fill roster spots at lower levels, becasue of projected promotions?

Well hopefully some of this year's draft will be worthy of starting at Cedar Rapids! There is Max Kepler who will hopefully be in Cedar Rapids soon. Other guys like Dereck Rodriguez, Rory Rhodes, Angel Mata, JT Chargois, et al will be likely headed to Cedar Rapids at some point this year. Things get crowded. What is good is that the teams shouldn't get much worse . . . replacing Sano, Rosario, Morales, and Vargas will be guys like Buxton, Walker, and DJ Hicks.

diehardtwinsfan
05-24-2013, 10:48 AM
I see a lot of moves in a few weeks. I have to think that Rosario is coming up with Sano, and likely a few others from Fort Meyers as well. I suspect Baxendale, Darnel, Meyer, and even May will be headed up a level. Not that a promotion is going to help this, but better defense behind May might reduce some of those control problems if he's not always out there so long... The problem with that, truth be told, is that May isn't going to see better defenses in Rochester or Minnesota when he gets there.

gil4
05-24-2013, 11:28 AM
Are you not familiar with xFIP? Shouldn't that be driving all pitching promotion decisions?
That and whether or not the guy's girlfriend is hot.

mike wants wins
05-24-2013, 11:30 AM
That and whether or not the guy's girlfriend is hot.

Or the color of his hair.

chopper0080
05-24-2013, 12:03 PM
If I am the Twins (which is not the case as my opinions seem to differ significantly from theirs) I look to move the following after the All Star game in June.

DJ Braxendale from Hi-A to AA
Miguel Sano from Hi-A to AA
Angel Morales from Hi-A to AA
Kenny Vargas from Hi-A to AA
Byron Buxton from Lo-A to AA

I believe these 5 players have demonstrated all they need to at their respective levels and the Twins need to move them up so they can evaluate them against the major league level talent that lives in the AA level. Some may seem this is too agressive for Buxton, but in my mind the difference between Low-A and High-A isn't that great. Buxton has shown he can dominate at Low-A, so in order to get more info on him, move him to AA. He will be protected by Sano, Vargas and Ortiz so he won't have all of the presure on him to produce, and will force teams to ptich to him. Eddie Rosario should also be an option, but he seems to be dealing with "other" issues at this time.

Adam Walker from Low-A to Hi-A.

I might move Harrison up as well, but I am not sure yet. I believe Walker really deserves a move up and it would provide the Twins with enough info to determine if he can jump to AA next year or if he would need more time at Hi-A.

Not a ton of pitcher movement from me because it is hard for me to determine who really deserves it. Sometimes guys with poor mechanics and plus stuff can get by at certain levels despite having flaws which will cause them to struggle at the next level. I am not confident with the rest of the pitchers to determine if they qualify. Jose Berrios would probably be my next pitcher to move up, but I am sure more time at Low-A won't hurt him this season. We will see.

roger
05-24-2013, 12:20 PM
Twins Fan From Afar, I have an unrelated question. This spring we heard that Danny Santana was a gifted defensive shortstop. In his first third of a season at AA, he has 17 errors. I assume you have seen him play. Was the talk this spring all hype? Or is he better than indicated when looking strictly at errors? Thanks!

diehardtwinsfan
05-24-2013, 12:43 PM
Sometimes errors come due to extreme range. I seem to remember Jose Reyes getting a lot more errors, but that had a lot to do with him knocking down hits that no other SS could get to.

Cap'n Piranha
05-24-2013, 01:05 PM
Sometimes errors come due to extreme range. I seem to remember Jose Reyes getting a lot more errors, but that had a lot to do with him knocking down hits that no other SS could get to.

The easiest way to not make an error is to not get to the ball. As long as the errors aren't multi-base errors, I have no problem with him making "errors" on balls that would have been clean hits against any other SS.

Steve Lein
05-24-2013, 02:39 PM
Interesting note in Baseball America's Hot Sheet today, where Sano made the "In The Team Photo" section (Kyle Gibson was #3 for his CG SO):

Miguel Sano (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/90064), 3b, Twins: El Rey had another good week, crushing seven extra-base hits for high Class A Fort Myers, including three home runs. He even stole three bases in three tries, giving him seven for the season. For all the skepticism about Sano’s defense at third, scouts who have seen him this year don’t see him moving any time soon. It’s worth noting that Sano leads all Florida State League third basemen in total chances, putouts and assists and is third among FSL third basemen in range factor.

("El Rey" translates to "The King" for those curious - Not one I've heard before for him, but I like the nickname)

Twins Fan From Afar
05-28-2013, 09:08 AM
Twins Fan From Afar, I have an unrelated question. This spring we heard that Danny Santana was a gifted defensive shortstop. In his first third of a season at AA, he has 17 errors. I assume you have seen him play. Was the talk this spring all hype? Or is he better than indicated when looking strictly at errors? Thanks!

I've seen Danny Santana play 5 or so games, and have not been impressed with the defense. The errors I witnessed were a grounder he didn't get to that only required 2-3 feet of movement, and a flip to second to start a double play that ended up in centerfield. Also I get nervous on his throws to first.

So, small sample size, but the glove hasn't impressed me. One positive thing, though, is that he does have a great arm.

gunnarthor
05-28-2013, 09:16 AM
Alex Meyer has the 2nd best FIP in the Eastern League (basically tied with Kevin Guasman, who debuts for the Orioles tonight). No reason to hold him back if spots open up above him.

Does anyone know if FIP calculations in the minor league levels valid or is it a stat that works best at the ML level where there isn't as much difference in competition? The reason I ask is Hendriks has had some pretty nice AAA FIPs the last few years.

kab21
05-28-2013, 12:57 PM
Does anyone know if FIP calculations in the minor league levels valid or is it a stat that works best at the ML level where there isn't as much difference in competition? The reason I ask is Hendriks has had some pretty nice AAA FIPs the last few years.

FIP in the minors is just as good as FIP in the majors. It's not a perfect measure especially since it doesn't normalize HR/FB%. Liam Hendriks has had really good HR/9 rates in the minors so that helps his great FIP's. One reason for Liam's good HR rates is that he's a GB pitcher but they shouldn't be that good. In addition he has had great K:BB rates. If you look at the equation below then he was basically elite since he controlled the 3 major parts of the equation. To be fair to FIP, Liam was also an elite minor leaguer according to ERA also. What is Hendriks problem? He has fringy stuff in the strike zone (low BB's) and so far it has been hit hard at the MiLB level.

How does this relate to Meyer? Meyer has a phenomenal K rate although his BB rate is not that great while his HR/9 rate is pretty low. He does get a lot of GB's so that partly explains it but he's probably a little lucky with HR's. The big difference between Meyer's great FIP's and Liam's great FIP's is that Meyer has amazing stuff that shouldn't get smacked around in the majors. The only thing that will hold Meyer back are the control issues that he struggles with. I don't think there should be any rush to get Meyer to the majors this season based on these control issues.

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
FIP | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/)

nicksaviking
05-28-2013, 02:09 PM
Miguel Sano (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/90064), 3b, Twins: El Rey had another good week, crushing seven extra-base hits for high Class A Fort Myers, including three home runs. He even stole three bases in three tries, giving him seven for the season. For all the skepticism about Sano’s defense at third, scouts who have seen him this year don’t see him moving any time soon. It’s worth noting that Sano leads all Florida State League third basemen in total chances, putouts and assists and is third among FSL third basemen in range factor.



This is encouraging for Sano. Of course it's discouraging for the pitching staff. I notice like the MLB club, this team is also a bottom feeder K/9 team. Only Baxendale has a K/9 +5.6 as a starter and his 7.5 K/9 is the only less-than encouraging thing about him this year.

birdwatcher
05-28-2013, 03:03 PM
Now you assume the Twins FO knows something about music?

That's funny. They probably know less about music than we do about baseball talent.

spycake
05-28-2013, 03:31 PM
This is encouraging for Sano. Of course it's discouraging for the pitching staff. I notice like the MLB club, this team is also a bottom feeder K/9 team. Only Baxendale has a K/9 +5.6 as a starter and his 7.5 K/9 is the only less-than encouraging thing about him this year.
Yeah, those defensive stats are very opportunity-dependent.

Also, of the 12 teams in the Florida State League, it looks like only about 7 of them have had a regular third baseman all season. And I think Sano leads those in games played too, so he should be expected to fare well in counting stats like chances, putouts, and assists.

fairweather
05-28-2013, 03:45 PM
Next stop Cooperstown!