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View Full Version : Draft Question: Who would disappoint you at #4?



cmb0252
05-20-2013, 03:14 PM
There has been a ton of great draft discussion on the forums from whom you want the Twins to take to best case scenarios to BPA vs Need. My question for you forum going people is this:

Out of the players the Twins have been linked to at #4, who would disappoint you the most?

Names they have been linked to are:
Gray, Appel, Bryant, Frazier, Stewart, Moran, Manaea, McGuire, and Meadows.

Personally, talent wise McGuire is a step behind everyone else, but if the Twins took him it would be on an under slot deal which you figure they would use on several other players. To me it isn't ideal but depending on who they got later I could be fine with it. The name that would really disappoint me is Moran. I don't think he sticks at 3b, which would mean he plays 1st, where his power won't play. Possible James Loney clone at 4= major disappointment.

30whales
05-20-2013, 03:23 PM
If we don't get one of Frazier, Meadows, Stewart, or Bryant I would be disappointed.

cmathewson
05-20-2013, 03:28 PM
It depends on who's left. If Manaea is there, I'd be disappointed if they didn't take him. Ditto Bryant. I figure one or the other will be there. In other words, I'd be disappointed if they took anybody but Meneae or Bryant.

jay
05-20-2013, 03:28 PM
If we don't get one of Frazier, Meadows, Stewart, or Bryant I would be disappointed.

Assuming Appel and Grey are gone of course.

mike wants wins
05-20-2013, 03:35 PM
I prefer someone from this list:

Appel, Gray
Stewart, Bryant

though I could live with:
Manaea
Shipley

So, ya, if it is Moran or McGuire, that would really annoy me. A Lot.

drjim
05-20-2013, 03:43 PM
I prefer someone from this list:

Appel, Gray
Stewart, Bryant

though I could live with:
Manaea
Shipley

So, ya, if it is Moran or McGuire, that would really annoy me. A Lot.

This.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 03:53 PM
I prefer someone from this list:

Appel, Gray
Stewart, Bryant

though I could live with:
Manaea
Shipley

So, ya, if it is Moran or McGuire, that would really annoy me. A Lot.

Where are if they drafted one of the OFers? Below live with and above really annoyed? I ask because I'm pretty high on Frazier but I have started to sour on Meadows. I don't know if I would be disappointed but I wouldn't be happy.

Also, Shipley is a good name to throw out there. While I haven't read the Twins linked to him you know they have scouted him. He is pretty similar to Zimmer last year.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 03:54 PM
Assuming Appel and Grey are gone of course.

I think Twins fans would burn down Target field if the Twins didn't draft Appel or Gray if they were available. Outside of an injury there is no way they fall to us.

mike wants wins
05-20-2013, 03:58 PM
I just want a pitcher, or the best bat in the draft. I think there will be enough pitchers that I'd rather have them than Frazier or Meadows. I just don't see a play there.

heck, if Bryant can stay at 3rd.....you can move Sano to right, and you are set. I will be disspointed, probably really annoyed, if they pick Frazier, and Meadows I want no part of right now.

But, this is all based on what a guy can read on the interwebs......I'm not scout/draft genius.

John Bonnes
05-20-2013, 04:01 PM
Gray, Appel, Bryant, Frazier, Stewart, Moran, Manaea, McGuire, and Meadows.

By itself, I'll be happy with those names except McGuire or Moran. I would NOT be shocked if this board is goin ballistic the day after the first round as the Twins save money on that pick in the hope of padding later picks. I wonder what thy would need to get in later rounds to justify it in our minds.

mike wants wins
05-20-2013, 04:06 PM
By itself, I'll be happy with those names except McGuire or Moran. I would NOT be shocked if this board is goin ballistic the day after the first round as the Twins save money on that pick in the hope of padding later picks. I wonder what thy would need to get in later rounds to justify it in our minds.


I am pretty sure some of us* would rip Ryan for being more concerned about budgets than getting elite talent here.

*by some of us, I'm pretty sure I would.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 04:09 PM
I just want a pitcher, or the best bat in the draft. I think there will be enough pitchers that I'd rather have them than Frazier or Meadows. I just don't see a play there.

heck, if Bryant can stay at 3rd.....you can move Sano to right, and you are set. I will be disspointed, probably really annoyed, if they pick Frazier, and Meadows I want no part of right now.

But, this is all based on what a guy can read on the interwebs......I'm not scout/draft genius.

Haha, none of us are scout geniuses. If we were we would be working for a team! The way I look at this question isn't as much scout driven as fan driven. There have been plenty of picks that looked great at the time but failed later and visa versa. We won't know for years but you will know personally how you feel after you see/read who they took.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 04:14 PM
By itself, I'll be happy with those names except McGuire or Moran. I would NOT be shocked if this board is goin ballistic the day after the first round as the Twins save money on that pick in the hope of padding later picks. I wonder what thy would need to get in later rounds to justify it in our minds.

This is also a great question. Matt Garrioch over at minorleagueball posted an article about guys with sign ability issues. Link below:

2013 MLB Draft: Players With Signability Questions - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/20/4344286/2013-mlb-draft-players-with-signability-questions)

Honestly, looking at the list I can't find 2 names to go with McGuire's that gets me too excited. Maybe a McGuire, Serrano, Boldt combo would be ok but that's a lot of HS guys.

cmathewson
05-20-2013, 04:21 PM
My mock:

Appel
Gray
Bryant
Manaea
Who cares

If they pass on Manaea, I will be very put out.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 04:28 PM
My mock:

Appel
Gray
Bryant
Manaea
Who cares

If they pass on Manaea, I will be very put out.

From what I have read they have been linked to Stewart and Frazier more than anyone not named Gray/Appel/Bryant. Things can change between now and then but you have a very small list!

gunnarthor
05-20-2013, 04:30 PM
I think Twins fans would burn down Target field if the Twins didn't draft Appel or Gray if they were available. Outside of an injury there is no way they fall to us.

One possible way. Houston goes underslot and takes someone like Stewart (who makes some sense. Risky guy but young and grows with Correa and they save money) b/c Gray has a few bad outings going into the draft. Cubs take Appel and Rockies remain in love with Bryant. Leaving the Twins with Gray.

Not likely but a possible way, outside of injury.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 04:38 PM
One possible way. Houston goes underslot and takes someone like Stewart (who makes some sense. Risky guy but young and grows with Correa and they save money) b/c Gray has a few bad outings going into the draft. Cubs take Appel and Rockies remain in love with Bryant. Leaving the Twins with Gray.

Not likely but a possible way, outside of injury.

That's a lot of ifs!

ThePuck
05-20-2013, 04:49 PM
If we draft Meadows or Frazier I'll be extremely disappointed.

Twins Twerp
05-20-2013, 04:53 PM
If we draft Meadows or Frazier I'll be extremely disappointed.

This, although Frazier's uniqueness has grown on me as of late. Damn YouTube!

Dance with Disco Dan
05-20-2013, 05:13 PM
Unlike a lot of posters, I am out on Manaea as a top-5 pick. I think both his peripherals and results have been underwhelming this season. So I'd be disappointed if the Twins take him or Meadows (has a great-talent/doesn't-love-the-game guy ever worked out?) I'd also probably be disappointed with the McGuire scenario primarily because I just don't know enough about the prospects outside the first round that they'd presumably spend the saved bonus pool money on.

I am riding the Stewart train if the first three go as expected.

Brodin4Calder
05-20-2013, 05:27 PM
Reese Mcguire would really make me mad.

Bryant, Appel, Gray, Stewart and if Manaea finishes strong would all be good picks. We need pitchers, you cant be an elite team if you dont have a strong roto.

I keep hearing the Twins are gonna take Stewart.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 05:58 PM
Unlike a lot of posters, I am out on Manaea as a top-5 pick. I think both his peripherals and results have been underwhelming this season. So I'd be disappointed if the Twins take him or Meadows (has a great-talent/doesn't-love-the-game guy ever worked out?) I'd also probably be disappointed with the McGuire scenario primarily because I just don't know enough about the prospects outside the first round that they'd presumably spend the saved bonus pool money on.

I am riding the Stewart train if the first three go as expected.

I'm right there with you. Stewart already has two 65+ grade pitches. How many HS kids can say that?

While I'm leading the anti-Manaea bandwagon I don't know how I feel if the Twins took him. I don't think I would be disappointed but I would want to know what the Twins saw. More I look at his stuff, even the Cape cod level stuff, the less I like him.

Brodin4Calder
05-20-2013, 06:04 PM
I'm right there with you. Stewart already has two 65+ grade pitches. How many HS kids can say that?

While I'm leading the anti-Manaea bandwagon I don't know how I feel if the Twins took him. I don't think I would be disappointed but I would want to know what the Twins saw. More I look at his stuff, even the Cape cod level stuff, the less I like him.

That about sums up what I have been thinking, Stewart has just as much potential if not more than Gray and Appel.

Einstein
05-20-2013, 11:49 PM
McGuire would be the biggest reach of those 9, I wouldn't be happy at all if the Twins selected him. It would reek of their tight fisted approach of years past, I just don't know how they would sell that to the fanbase.

Brodin4Calder
05-21-2013, 03:51 AM
McGuire would be the biggest reach of those 9, I wouldn't be happy at all if the Twins selected him. It would reek of their tight fisted approach of years past, I just don't know how they would sell that to the fanbase.

I am almost 100% sure they wont do that. They have dumped a ton of salary the last couple years (which was all of our good vets like Cuddyer, Kubel, Span....) in order to start rebuilding the team through the draft. They wouldnt scrap 3 seasons if they werent gonna take the best possible players in order to be a good team again. So far they have done that so I dont see them stopping.

old nurse
05-21-2013, 06:38 AM
I am pretty sure some of us* would rip Ryan for being more concerned about budgets than getting elite talent here.

*by some of us, I'm pretty sure I would.
I am pretty sure that some would rip Ryan regardless of what he does. Couldn't resist. Elite talent is hard to come by. Mediocre is easy to find..

Brock Beauchamp
05-21-2013, 07:22 AM
My mock:

Appel
Gray
Bryant
Manaea
Who cares

If they pass on Manaea, I will be very put out.

I admit that my draft research has been very limited due to my schedule lately but isn't Manaea throwing 4-5 mph slower than he was last year? Why are so many people still high on him?

jaspatrick
05-21-2013, 08:40 AM
I admit that my draft research has been very limited due to my schedule lately but isn't Manaea throwing 4-5 mph slower than he was last year? Why are so many people still high on him?

Yeah, even last week when he was throwing better, I saw twitter reports that he was only 90-91 in the first and down to 88-90 in the second. Still putting up great numbers, but against weak competition.

I think people still look at what he did at the Cape and hope he can recapture that "stuff" with better coaching, even though he never had that kind of velo before or after that summer. With the fourth pick we're in a wierd spot because of the drop off after the big three prospects. Anyone we take will have some risk, whether it's Manaea, Shipley, or a HS player.

kab21
05-21-2013, 10:09 AM
I will be thrilled if Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to the Twins.

Stewart is my current choice at #4.

I will be waiting in the 'I told you so' section if they pick Manaea. It could work and the Twins need pitching but he hasn't done well this spring and there are red flags all over Manaea currently.

Shipley is growing on me so I could understand this pick.

Meadows doesn't interest me a lot. he's not a standout even in a weak draft class and the Twins have a lot of toolsy OF'ers.

Frazier would not be horrible. He is an OF'er but he has legit power which is a weakness of the farm system.

The Twins better be projecting more power from Moran and he better stay at 3B if picked. not a fan of this pick.

HS catchers. :banghead:

gunnarthor
05-21-2013, 10:26 AM
I will be thrilled if Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to the Twins.

Stewart is my current choice at #4.

I will be waiting in the 'I told you so' section if they pick Manaea. It could work and the Twins need pitching but he hasn't done well this spring and there are red flags all over Manaea currently.

Shipley is growing on me so I could understand this pick.

Meadows doesn't interest me a lot. he's not a standout even in a weak draft class and the Twins have a lot of toolsy OF'ers.

Frazier would not be horrible. He is an OF'er but he has legit power which is a weakness of the farm system.

The Twins better be projecting more power from Moran and he better stay at 3B if picked. not a fan of this pick.

HS catchers. :banghead:

I agree with most of this although I think the Twins actually have some solid power prospects. Sano, obviously, is the #1 power prospect in baseball right now but Walker and Harrison both have some real pop, too. Arcia, is, at least for a few more weeks, a prospect and he has nice power. And even guys like Rosario and Goodrum look to have some pop for a MIer.

Right now I'd be ok (assuming the first three is Gray, Appel and Bryant) with either Stewart or Shipley.

3rd Inning Stretch
05-21-2013, 10:44 AM
Anyone but Appel, Gray, Bryant, Frazier, Stewart. Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out. He may fall out of the first if there is any substantial injury after today.

ThePuck
05-21-2013, 11:24 AM
Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out.

Is Manaea a toolsy OF? :-)

gunnarthor
05-21-2013, 11:28 AM
Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out.

Care to elaborate?

jay
05-21-2013, 11:36 AM
The top 3 seem to be pretty well set for everyone. Beyond that, you seem to see 4-6 names tossed around with no clear indications of superior talent within that band.

Of course we don't want the Twins to reach for a less talented player to save some money, but would it be such a bad strategy if one of the players in that band was willing to swing a deal to go #4 and load up on extra slot money for later picks? I'm afraid fans are going to overreact to this scenario if it happens.

Siehbiscuit
05-21-2013, 11:44 AM
I am all in on two guys (assuming Appel, Gray and Bryant are gone)...Stewart and Frazier. Please no to the HS catchers at #4. Going under slot for a guy like Shipley or another high upside arm is tolerable, but the bust rate in HS catchers is far too great.

So to answer the OPs question: McGuire

kab21
05-21-2013, 11:44 AM
The top 3 seem to be pretty well set for everyone. Beyond that, you seem to see 4-6 names tossed around with no clear indications of superior talent within that band.

Of course we don't want the Twins to reach for a less talented player to save some money, but would it be such a bad strategy if one of the players in that band was willing to swing a deal to go #4 and load up on extra slot money for later picks? I'm afraid fans are going to overreact to this scenario if it happens.

The problem is that underslot pick appears to be a HS catcher which looks to be in the next tier of talent. Considering the Twins pitching need I think Stewart is almost a lock to be picked but Shipley is growing on me.

jay
05-21-2013, 12:03 PM
The problem is that underslot pick appears to be a HS catcher which looks to be in the next tier of talent. Considering the Twins pitching need I think Stewart is almost a lock to be picked but Shipley is growing on me.

Some rumors don't make it a reality. You'd be okay with an underslot deal if Shipley were the pick?

3rd Inning Stretch
05-21-2013, 12:12 PM
Care to elaborate?

Sure...perhaps I'm mistaken, but he was a low 90's pitcher until Cape Cod last summer. Then spiked up to 95, then was back down this year. People were wondering about his "decrease" in velocity, but I think the bigger question is about the "increase" last summer that is the bigger concern. Picking 4th overall, I dont think you go for a small school guy expected to be a low 90's fastball that cannot go and dominate hitters and may be a #3 guy at best (my opinion...). Maybe later in the first round or later rounds, but not 4th overall. Appel and Gray can be those dominating guys, Stewart could be as well (with signability concerns there), I just dont see Manaea as one of those guys. He's not the classic pitch to contact guy, but not more on that end if the velocity is not there, which is where I was going with when I compared him to guys we have drafted prior, and not like the guys we have looked to pick up one way or another recently in May, Meyer, and Berrios.

jay
05-21-2013, 12:13 PM
My point is it seems like a lot of folks would rip an underslot deal no matter what because of the Twins' reputation of being cheap. In reality, it'd be just fine for the right player. So, where's the floor of who would be okay for a deal like that?

For me, (outside of the top 3) that floor contains Stewart, Shipley, and Frazier with Meadows, Moran, and Manaea as borderline.

kab21
05-21-2013, 12:17 PM
Some rumors don't make it a reality. You'd be okay with an underslot deal if Shipley were the pick?

Shipley is like a survivor on my draft list. Manaea has been dropping. Meadows (and Frazier to a lesser extent) have been dropping. Moran hasn't really impressed me. At this point Shipley is probably my #5 in this draft.

closer to the top of my list - check
position of need - check
okay - check

I hope that this saves at least 500K but there could also be an argument that Shipley is better than Stewart. The Twins could certainly think this way.

mike wants wins
05-21-2013, 12:18 PM
Underslot only works if there is a guy in round 2 to sign, and they succeed in signing him. What are the odd of that working? 20%? 40%? I just think it is too risky to pass on potentially elite talent, get a lesser talent, and MAYBE sign another less talent....and how much better is that player you take in round 2, than the guy you would have taken anyway?

If you could get Moran and Manaea, would you rather have that, or Bryant/Stewart?

jay
05-21-2013, 12:29 PM
Underslot only works if there is a guy in round 2 to sign, and they succeed in signing him. What are the odd of that working? 20%? 40%? I just think it is too risky to pass on potentially elite talent, get a lesser talent, and MAYBE sign another less talent....and how much better is that player you take in round 2, than the guy you would have taken anyway?

If you could get Moran and Manaea, would you rather have that, or Bryant/Stewart?

I agree with you completely about not passing on talent, but we don't see a guy who is clearly superior on talent for #4...

No one wants them to reach, but if it's a coin flip and one guy is willing to take less... why not? Even if it's only 20-40% chance of paying off like you're saying.

cmb0252
05-21-2013, 12:35 PM
With Manaea's injury AND if, big if, Stewart tells teams not to take him the Twins will be put in a rough spot. That leaves Frazier (who they have been heavily linked to), Moran (gross), and Meadows. Just a bad year for the Twins to have the #4 pick.

Twins Twerp
05-21-2013, 12:41 PM
I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

gunnarthor
05-21-2013, 01:40 PM
I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

That's a fair point.

golfboy1
05-21-2013, 04:46 PM
With Manaea's injury AND if, big if, Stewart tells teams not to take him the Twins will be put in a rough spot. That leaves Frazier (who they have been heavily linked to), Moran (gross), and Meadows. Just a bad year for the Twins to have the #4 pick.

It seems like Meadows & Frazier have slipped a little lately. After the top three, the only other player who seems like a high impact, top line prospect is Stewart. The Twins could certainly use a power arm.

I say take Stewart...if he doesn't sign they get the #5 pick next year & that seems better than Moran, Frazier or Meadows.

cmb0252
05-21-2013, 06:12 PM
I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

Great point. These were both interesting reads and clear indicators why you don't "punt" picks.

30whales
05-27-2013, 02:19 PM
If we don't get one of Appel, Gray, Bryant, or Stewart I will be extremely disappointed. I don't like all of this talk about going for Shipley or McGuire to sign them under-slot.

70charger
05-27-2013, 03:15 PM
I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

It is an interesting point, and I don't disagree, but I think the consensus isn't that it's a bad year to have a top pick, just that it's a bad year to have top pick just outside of the top 3.

Personally, I'd be disappointed if they picked up McGuire. I'm aboard the Stewart train too.

InfraRen
05-27-2013, 03:35 PM
McGuire

howieramone
05-27-2013, 04:49 PM
I have no problem taking our future catcher at #4. Maybe it's just me, but it seems 50% of all top pitching prospects are injured, and the other 50% are just waiting their turn. I would always take a position player this high in the draft.

Kwak
05-27-2013, 05:03 PM
Any of the OFers would really bother me. Stewart concerns me--unless he convinces me that a MLB career is his passion and that FB was just a HS fancy. A kid who struggles the least bit might start listening to "feelers" from FB coaches. Those type of distractions might derail a BB career.

kab21
05-27-2013, 07:48 PM
Any of the OFers would really bother me. Stewart concerns me--unless he convinces me that a MLB career is his passion and that FB was just a HS fancy. A kid who struggles the least bit might start listening to "feelers" from FB coaches. Those type of distractions might derail a BB career.

So who doesn't concern you?


I have no problem taking our future catcher at #4. Maybe it's just me, but it seems 50% of all top pitching prospects are injured, and the other 50% are just waiting their turn. I would always take a position player this high in the draft.

I find it ironic that you would avoid a starter early in the draft because of risk but support the choice of a HS catcher.