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View Full Version : Why WAR is the worst stat ever



notoriousgod71
05-11-2013, 05:13 PM
Y! SPORTS (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nick-punto-ranks-third-los-angeles-dodgers-war-205000164.html)


Punto > Kershaw

Shane Wahl
05-11-2013, 05:19 PM
Can you explain what the issue is here? Punto is strangely having a RIDICULOUS season. Maybe OPS is horrible too since he has an OPS of .880???? How is WAR not measuring his performance right now?

ThePuck
05-11-2013, 06:42 PM
That's easy...it's not.

notoriousgod71
05-11-2013, 06:43 PM
55 innings of 1.62 ERA and .90 whip > 65 AB of .880 OPS

snepp
05-11-2013, 07:02 PM
1. WAR uses FIP, not ERA (at least on Fragraphs)

2. Kershaw's WAR is higher than Punto's (on both FG and BRef)


I guess that kind of renders this entire thread moot, no?

notoriousgod71
05-11-2013, 07:09 PM
1. WAR uses FIP, not ERA (at least on Fragraphs)

2. Kershaw's WAR is higher than Punto's (on both FG and BRef)


I guess that kind of renders this entire thread moot, no?


Thank God. Wonder what stupid calculation that article was referencing.

snepp
05-11-2013, 07:13 PM
I didn't even read the article.

I just assumed that if it was on Yahoo that it was awful. :p

snepp
05-11-2013, 07:14 PM
On this topic though, Kershaw's BRef WAR is the 3rd highest in the NL, 5th highest in the ML.

Brad Swanson
05-11-2013, 07:55 PM
Wasn't the article focused on offensive players? He mentions Beckett, but not any other pitchers.

kab21
05-11-2013, 08:21 PM
I love it when people completely misuse a stat to confirm their bias against it.

iastfan112
05-11-2013, 09:19 PM
A .900 OPS from a infielder with good defense, why yes I think that would be valuable!

Brock Beauchamp
05-12-2013, 08:01 AM
I love it when people completely misuse a stat to confirm their bias against it.

This. WAR isn't meant to be used in small sizes like that... So to "disprove" the metric, somebody uses it that way and screams "THIS SUCKS".

It's akin to buying a blender and then taking it back to the store, screaming that it didn't toast your bread.

snepp
05-12-2013, 09:49 AM
It's akin to buying a blender and then taking it back to the store, screaming that it didn't toast your bread.

Hey, some of us are a little more demanding of our electronics than others.

IdahoPilgrim
05-12-2013, 10:25 AM
I love it when people completely misuse a stat to confirm their bias against it.

I agree that is a misuse of the statistic.

Another misuse is to read more into a statistic than is actually there. Bottom line - WAR, like all other statistics, is a quantitative tool which, by itself, is incapable of truly showing a players value or contribution. It can be a part of the final analysis, but is never the final analysis itself.

Unfortunately, too many people use that particular metric as the final analysis, which is the point I think the original poster was trying to make.

Shane Wahl
05-12-2013, 10:38 AM
"Why WAR is the worst stat ever" does NOT equate with "too many people use that particular metric as the final analysis" AT ALL, sbk!


Anyway, on BR, Kershaw's WAR is 2.3. Punto's 1.1.

Good god.

notoriousgod71
05-12-2013, 11:20 AM
How about it's dumb that it's calculated in different ways since Punto is a 1.1 on BR and .9 on Fangraphs.

What other stat just spews out random numbers like that? You don't have one place listing his OPS as .868 and another at .831. So I guess it goes back to the use of defensive metrics to determine a player's value and how flawed that is.

Shane Wahl
05-12-2013, 11:26 AM
Yes, I would recommend pretty much ignoring dWAR and looking only at oWAR.

big dog
05-12-2013, 12:06 PM
WAR! Huh! Woo-oh-oh, what is it good for? Absolutely Nothing! Huh!

It was time for a little Edwin Starr in the thread.

kab21
05-12-2013, 02:11 PM
How about it's dumb that it's calculated in different ways since Punto is a 1.1 on BR and .9 on Fangraphs.

What other stat just spews out random numbers like that? You don't have one place listing his OPS as .868 and another at .831. So I guess it goes back to the use of defensive metrics to determine a player's value and how flawed that is.

If you have a problem with WAR then perhaps you shouldn't use it. If you want to make a case against it then don't use it in a way that it would be highly flawed. It's also not that hard pick apart WAR even if it has been used correctly. It's not a perfect stat and I don't think anyone has declared it as such.

cmathewson
05-12-2013, 04:25 PM
If you have a problem with WAR then perhaps you shouldn't use it. If you want to make a case against it then don't use it in a way that it would be highly flawed. It's also not that hard pick apart WAR even if it has been used correctly. It's not a perfect stat and I don't think anyone has declared it as such.

Some people use it as a proxy for value, as in, "the MVP should just be the guy with the highest WAR." But most posters here understand its limitations .

Kobs
05-14-2013, 06:16 PM
Is it a stat?

Mr. Brooks
05-25-2013, 10:08 AM
How about it's dumb that it's calculated in different ways since Punto is a 1.1 on BR and .9 on Fangraphs.

What other stat just spews out random numbers like that? You don't have one place listing his OPS as .868 and another at .831. So I guess it goes back to the use of defensive metrics to determine a player's value and how flawed that is.

WAR is not a stat, it's a metric. Slight difference.
Saying WAR should be completely tossed out because it is calculated slightly differently by different sites is akin to saying that real estate appraisal is completely useless because one firm appraises your home at 250k and another firm appraises it at 255k.

IdahoPilgrim
05-25-2013, 10:11 AM
WAR is not a stat, it's a metric. Slight difference.
Saying WAR should be completely tossed out because it is calculated slightly differently by different sites is akin to saying that real estate appraisal is completely useless because one firm appraises your home at 250k and another firm appraises it at 255k.

The problem comes when the differences are significant, not small. Particularly in pitching, Fangraphs WAR and BR WAR can have a large difference. That's like having one person appraise your house at $300K and another appraise it at $150K - you haven't really learned anything.

Mr. Brooks
05-25-2013, 10:13 AM
The problem comes when the differences are significant, not small. Particularly in pitching, Fangraphs WAR and BR WAR can have a large difference. That's like having one person appraise your house at $300K and another appraise it at $150K - you haven't really learned anything.

I'd think its safe to assume that different sites having the same player with WAR's that far out of whack over a substantial sample size is probably an extremely tiny percentage.
They are almost always very small differences by the end of the year.

kab21
05-25-2013, 09:41 PM
The problem comes when the differences are significant, not small. Particularly in pitching, Fangraphs WAR and BR WAR can have a large difference. That's like having one person appraise your house at $300K and another appraise it at $150K - you haven't really learned anything.

Are you looking at monthly WAR, yearly WAR or multi-year WAR?

snepp
05-26-2013, 10:54 PM
The problem comes when the differences are significant, not small. Particularly in pitching, Fangraphs WAR and BR WAR can have a large difference.

One is based off FIP, one is based off ERA, where is the problem?

ALessKosherScott
05-29-2013, 11:01 AM
Someday, I'd like to reconfigure WAR as a measure for ranking WAR songs. My money is on Low Rider winning.

stringer bell
05-29-2013, 12:08 PM
WAR is flawed I'm sure. Currently for the Twins, Mauer is their top rated O-WAR player (2.0) and second is ....................Trevor Plouffe (0.9). Oops, Hammer comes in at 1.0, so Plouffie is third.

Mr. Brooks
05-29-2013, 07:19 PM
Someday, I'd like to reconfigure WAR as a measure for ranking WAR songs. My money is on Low Rider winning.

Low Rider should be a distant 3rd behind Cisco Kid and Spill the Wine.

mike wants wins
06-03-2013, 11:11 AM
Love Spill the Wine.....

Red Bull
06-04-2013, 02:25 PM
WAR is the best stat, maybe OPS but those are the 2 stats I look at to judge a player. Every stat has a flaw, I just think WAR is the best because its a stat to show a players overall production and it doesnt have any huge flaws like AVG. AVG is one of the worst stats imo, I mean a single is valued the same as a HR. We all know that is total bs.

Oh and I dont compair a position players WAR to a pitchers WAR.

Turd Furgeson
06-07-2013, 03:45 PM
Average has som value. Clearly you wouldn't just use that stat, that be ridiculous. The problem with WAR is that it relies on people wTching the games on tv to judge zones that defensive players are in, irregardless of defensive shifts. Catcher defense cannot be properly gauged by WAR yet they do so anyway. It's also inaccurate over short periods of time.

Shane Wahl
06-07-2013, 05:20 PM
I don't pay much attention to defensive WAR. OPS (coupled with steals and watching to see things like advancing runners, etc.) is pretty good for a way to judge offensive performance. WAR just tries to take this a step further and the notion of a "replacement player" is a very valuable thing in judging a player's value. Defense is way trickier.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-07-2013, 08:52 PM
Average has som value. Clearly you wouldn't just use that stat, that be ridiculous. The problem with WAR is that it relies on people wTching the games on tv to judge zones that defensive players are in, irregardless of defensive shifts. Catcher defense cannot be properly gauged by WAR yet they do so anyway. It's also inaccurate over short periods of time.

That word..that, that... "not word".:s-instagib:

Turd Furgeson
06-07-2013, 09:08 PM
That word..that, that... "not word".:s-instagib:

Irregardless of what you think, I will continue to use it just to annoy you. :D