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View Full Version : Rumors Twins could cut deal with first pick to save money later in the draft!



Brodin4Calder
05-09-2013, 11:53 PM
Rumors persist that Minnesota could cut a deal with Washington high school catcher Reese McGuire and spend heavily further down in the draft.

I would be very upset if the Twins did this. They need to grab a top of the roto arm. For to long the Twins have waited til later rounds to draft pitchers and it hasnt worked so why would it work now. The last decent pitcher they drafted in the first round was Garza in the 20s I think. I cant even remember the last time the Twins took a top arm in the top 5.

Appel and Gray will be gone by the time the Twins are up so we know they arent gonna get either of them. If Bryant is available I say the Twins take him because he has too much potential to pass on. If they are all 3 gone the Twins have to take Manaea or Stewart. Manaea has had troubles but we all saw what he is capable of and with better coaching and training he could be more consistent. I think they should grab Stewart, he has the same upside as Appel and Gray but will take a little longer to develop because hes still in HS. The Twins have to grab a top arm if they dont get get Bryant.

greengoblinrulz
05-09-2013, 11:55 PM
Cant remember??? Last year!!!

Brodin4Calder
05-10-2013, 12:02 AM
Cant remember??? Last year!!!

I was trying to say I couldnt remeber the last time they did, my b

greengoblinrulz
05-10-2013, 12:23 AM
Ryan Mills & Adam Johnson were both college arms drafted very high that flopped badly

IdahoPilgrim
05-10-2013, 12:26 AM
Do you have a source for the rumor?

joeboo_22
05-10-2013, 01:04 AM
Its been rumored, I don't put a ton of weight in it though. The Twins either need to take the best arm available or the best player available. Cutting deals is only when your system in general is down, which it really isn't. The Twins need 1 or 2 more top prospects not 5-6 organizational mid level prospects which is what you would be saying by saving your money for lower rounds.

PseudoSABR
05-10-2013, 01:49 AM
BA's Jim Callis mentioned it, and it will always be rumored that mid market teams like the Astros, Pirates and Twins are supposedly cutting deals to save money, because that's an easy-won narrative that seems sensible on first (and only) blush.

jokin
05-10-2013, 03:24 AM
BA's Jim Callis mentioned it, and it will always be rumored that mid market teams like the Astros, Pirates and Twins are supposedly cutting deals to save money, because that's an easy-won narrative that seems sensible on first (and only) blush.

Anything to avoid the logjam of Boras clients at the top of the draft. Nice.

Badsmerf
05-10-2013, 07:24 AM
I don't believe it. The Twins drafts the last few years have been extremely good. I see them staying true to the philosophy they've had recently and that is targeting top end talent.

Thrylos
05-10-2013, 07:53 AM
I would have zero problems if the Twins picked anyone of Reese McGuire, Jon Denney and Nick Ciuffo with that first round pick. Getting a star catcher is much more difficult than getting a star pitcher and if they think they got one, they should go for it, and if they can save some $ in the process to sign a hard to sign high school kid in the later rounds, more power to them. Do the math: How many star catchers there are in the majors vs star pitchers.

Badsmerf
05-10-2013, 08:09 AM
I would have zero problems if the Twins picked anyone of Reese McGuire, Jon Denney and Nick Ciuffo with that first round pick. Getting a star catcher is much more difficult than getting a star pitcher and if they think they got one, they should go for it, and if they can save some $ in the process to sign a hard to sign high school kid in the later rounds, more power to them. Do the math: How many star catchers there are in the majors vs star pitchers.
Star catchers can't win games by themselves. The Twins have a HOF catcher right now and have barely managed to win a single playoff game in 5 series.

mike wants wins
05-10-2013, 08:16 AM
Looked like you added three extra words to your thread title........pick the best player, you don't know if anyone worth signing will be there later.

cmathewson
05-10-2013, 08:24 AM
I'm pretty sure the CBA slotting system prevents this. Sorry, bad rumor. Move along. Nothing to see.

Badsmerf
05-10-2013, 08:33 AM
Why did you change the tittle of this thread??

Thrylos
05-10-2013, 08:35 AM
I'm pretty sure the CBA slotting system prevents this. Sorry, bad rumor. Move along. Nothing to see.

Nah. It will be doing what the Astros did last season

Thrylos
05-10-2013, 08:38 AM
Star catchers can't win games by themselves. The Twins have a HOF catcher right now and have barely managed to win a single playoff game in 5 series.

Of course. Agreed. You need lots of pieces to win games and titles (and a manager and coaches with winning attitudes and skills to manage them - which I think has been the biggest issue of the Twins in the postseason.)

Yes you need a lot of pieces to win. A star catcher will not win (many) games all by himself. My point is that a star catcher is a harder piece to find than a star pitcher. Shorter supply.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-10-2013, 08:43 AM
I chatted last night with someone who is directly involved and asked him specifically about this rumor.

Paraphrased, he said that cutting a deal with a player wouldn't be something they approach until the days leading up to the draft. Part of that, I would surmise, has to do with there being a month of information still to gather. The other part has to do with player leverage.

This much I know, McGuire is the top catcher on the Twins board, so seeing his name tied to the rumor isn't a surprise, especially if they want to consider cutting a deal later.

mike wants wins
05-10-2013, 08:49 AM
Need 5 pitchers, and they impact every single game. The delta between 2-3 very good pitchers and none, is bigger than the delta between a very good catcher and a mediocre catcher.

Brodin4Calder
05-10-2013, 09:13 AM
Ryan Mills & Adam Johnson were both college arms drafted very high that flopped badly

Its sad to see so many MN Twins fans talking like you. Im not trying to be a dick im just saying the Twins horrible thinking has gotten to the fans. Yes theres alot of busts in every draft but the reward is so great when you take that risk, and theres never a for sure thing. The Twins need a potential ace and have the 4th overall pick with a couple potential aces out there. Do you think the Tigers thought Verlander could be a bust? Yes. Do you think the Dodgers thought Kershaw could be a bust? Yes. But they took the chance and were rewarded. Any player at any level could be a bust. But they could also be the next Verlander.

Brodin4Calder
05-10-2013, 09:16 AM
Why did you change the tittle of this thread??

I didnt change the name. I screwed up when I wrote it. It should say- Rumors Twins could cut deal with first pick to save money for later in the draft! (http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6502-rumors-twins-could-cut-deal-first-pick-save-money-later-draft.html)

kab21
05-10-2013, 09:18 AM
Do the math: How many star catchers there are in the majors vs star pitchers.

HS catchers are incredibly risky. I have reservations about taking a HS catcher unless that player is a stud like Mauer was.

Brodin4Calder
05-10-2013, 09:21 AM
Star catchers can't win games by themselves. The Twins have a HOF catcher right now and have barely managed to win a single playoff game in 5 series.

Exactly, I think if you have a good defensive catcher that is cheap and spend money on other positions. I think Mauer is extremely overpaid, look at Posey he just got less money than Mauer and he actualy gets alot of HRs and RBIs aswell as AVG. If Mauer batted .340+ 90RBI and a high OBP each year he might be worth the money but he doesnt.

kab21
05-10-2013, 09:37 AM
Exactly, I think if you have a good defensive catcher that is cheap and spend money on other positions. I think Mauer is extremely overpaid, look at Posey he just got less money than Mauer and he actualy gets alot of HRs and RBIs aswell as AVG. If Mauer batted .340+ 90RBI and a high OBP each year he might be worth the money but he doesnt.

He's actually pretty close to those numbers unless he's injured.


Star catchers can't win games by themselves.

Individual hitters can't win games by themselves.

Brodin4Calder
05-10-2013, 10:00 AM
Individual hitters can't win games by themselves.

Yea they can. If you have a high producing player that gets 100+ RBIs a year like Miggy or Fielder its not to rare that they get a 3RBI+ day and win the game. Mauer doesnt do that, hes just not worth the money hes getting unless hes playing like his MVP season.

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 10:01 AM
I want the Twins to stick to BPA but as long as they spend all of their draft budget, I won't kick and scream too much. A little, maybe, but not too much.

Seth Stohs
05-10-2013, 10:18 AM
I actually really liked what the Astros did last year. They took a very high upside middle infielder maybe 2-4 spots early (still a top 5-6 pick), got him for a very fair deal, then they were able to get McCullers and Ruiz later because they were going to be tough signs. That played out perfectly for them, but as mww wrote, you don't know that it's going to play out like that either.

The Twins aren't afraid to spend. They showed that last year. They'll be smart, but they'll feel convicted that the guy they take is the right guy to attempt to develop!

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 10:23 AM
I actually really liked what the Astros did last year. They took a very high upside middle infielder maybe 2-4 spots early (still a top 5-6 pick), got him for a very fair deal, then they were able to get McCullers and Ruiz later because they were going to be tough signs. That played out perfectly for them, but as mww wrote, you don't know that it's going to play out like that either.

The Twins aren't afraid to spend. They showed that last year. They'll be smart, but they'll feel convicted that the guy they take is the right guy to attempt to develop!

Would you rather have Buxton and Berrios or Correa and McCullers?

nicksaviking
05-10-2013, 10:30 AM
There hasn't been an above average HS catcher drafted since Mauer in 2001 and Brian McCann in 2002. The best HS catcher drafted in the first round since that time is Jarred Saltalamacchia in 2003. And the catchers in this class aren't getting nearly the hype of the previously highly hyped backstops.

HS catchers have such a high bust rate, likely because they have so much to learn about defense and calling games that thier offensive development takes a back seat. Besides, the difference between a top five cather in the league and a leage average catcher is less than the difference between other positions. Plenty of teams win a World Series with a non-descript catcher. Few win without top of the rotation arms.

Even if a pitcher is not an option, you need to take the best offensive player regardless of position, and it wouldn't be a catcher.

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 10:35 AM
While i prefer to use the number 4 pick on the highest upside player there at 4, it wouldn't be a tragedy if they went this way. I'm not a big fan of McGuire but it sounds like a lot of teams see him as a top 10 pick. They have real scouts while I have the inter web. If the Twins see him as a top 10 talent who will also take under slot then go for it as long as you use your extra money wisely.

Brodin4Calder
05-10-2013, 10:42 AM
This draft has 3 guys ahead of the rest. Its all about Appel, Gray and Bryant. If one of those 3 is available the Twins have to take one of them. If they arent than its up in the air. I have 2 guys I wouldnt mind seeing picked in Manaea and Stewart. Both have red flags. People think Stewart may never become a 200IP guy because he has had a few minor injuries. Manaea was looking like the 1st overall pick for awhile but has since stated pitching worse. It could be because of an injury but IDK. He has ace stuff, maybe better coaching and training could help him?

Brodin4Calder
05-10-2013, 10:49 AM
I actually really liked what the Astros did last year. They took a very high upside middle infielder maybe 2-4 spots early (still a top 5-6 pick), got him for a very fair deal, then they were able to get McCullers and Ruiz later because they were going to be tough signs. That played out perfectly for them, but as mww wrote, you don't know that it's going to play out like that either.

The Twins aren't afraid to spend. They showed that last year. They'll be smart, but they'll feel convicted that the guy they take is the right guy to attempt to develop!

I thought the Astros were really dumb last year. They could have drafted a guy like Buxton who was the best player in the draft with a ton of upside but they went the cheap way which is what losers do. They could of taken Buxton last year and Appel or Gray this year. Yea its a little more risky spending most of your money on 1 guy but if they reach their potential they are priceless. Just think if DET would of made a deal instead of picking Verlander at 2, or if WSH would of made a deal instead of grabbing Harper.... You know what im saying?

Boom Boom
05-10-2013, 10:55 AM
I love the title of this article... it's so Twins. The Scoops: Twins narrow pick to college pitchers, prep outfielders | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/The_Scoops_Twins_narrow_pick_to_college_pitchers_p rep_outfielders050913)

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 10:57 AM
BA had Buxton 1 and Correa 2. Sickels had Correa his #1 last year. Law said while he had Buxton as his #1 prospect all year that it wouldn't surprise him if Correa ended up being the best player from the draft. They have comparable talent but one came at a significant discount. I see nothing wrong with what they did. Don't forget, Correa is a year younger than Buxton so he has plenty of time to catch up.

Back to the Twins. I have no problem if the Twins taking a under slot guy at 4 BUT the guy they take still has to be a top talent. Also, its too early to know who might slip due to signability but if they are saving money for later they better spend it.

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 10:59 AM
I thought the Astros were really dumb last year. They could have drafted a guy like Buxton who was the best player in the draft with a ton of upside but they went the cheap way which is what losers do. They could of taken Buxton last year and Appel or Gray this year. Yea its a little more risky spending most of your money on 1 guy but if they reach their potential they are priceless. Just think if DET would of made a deal instead of picking Verlander at 2, or if WSH would of made a deal instead of grabbing Harper.... You know what im saying?

The problem is there isn't a Harper, Verlander or Buxton at 4. I want the team to go BPA at #4 but making silly strawmen arguments isn't really helping your case. Right now there is a lot of meh after the top 3 are gone. According to BA, Bryant, Frazier and Meadows would have been in the 8-10 range in last years draft. It's not a good draft. I want the Twins to take whoever they think is the best player at #4, without concerns for signability, agents, position or age. If they think it's a HS catcher, fine. If they think it's Moran, fine.

nicksaviking
05-10-2013, 11:56 AM
I don't like the underslot stratagy at all, but I could almost understand it if there appeared to be a ton of worthy, hard to sign talent available to take with the second pick. As it is, we've been crapping on just about every other college arm in the draft. Should the Twins really want to take a lesser prospect in round 1 so they can pay over slot for Anderson or Crawford who have been disappointing us for most of the spring? Of course you could pay over slot to snag a HS arm who will leverage college into a larger contract, but then why wouldn't you just take the best HS arm available when he'll likely be sitting there with the #4 pick?

kab21
05-10-2013, 12:06 PM
The reason to go underslot is if the underslot pick was really close to the BPA but was expected to be drafted 5-10 slots lower. If that allows you to upgrade the 2nd rd pick to a mid 1st rd talent then it's a win. If you are going underslot to take a lesser talent then it's a terrible idea.

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 12:22 PM
The reason to go underslot is if the underslot pick was really close to the BPA but was expected to be drafted 5-10 slots lower. If that allows you to upgrade the 2nd rd pick to a mid 1st rd talent then it's a win. If you are going underslot to take a lesser talent then it's a terrible idea.

nailed it kab.

Last year the Astros were able to take a player they valued similarly to Buxton but at a lesser cost. While I personally don't see McGuire being similar value to the other talents at 4, according to reports a lot of teams feel he is a top 10 talent. If the Twins feel McGuire, or another prospect for that matter, is close to say Frazier or Stewart talent wise but will sign cheaper it isn't a bad strategy.

While prefer a lot of names to McGuires but what do I know? I'm no scout. I always support the strategy of BPA but every good team has to at least look at this strategy. The Twins didn't use this strategy last year when they could have gotten a player of need, Gasusman was floating taking less money to go higher, so I doubt they do it this year.

kab21
05-10-2013, 12:29 PM
Yea they can. If you have a high producing player that gets 100+ RBIs a year like Miggy or Fielder its not to rare that they get a 3RBI+ day and win the game. Mauer doesnt do that, hes just not worth the money hes getting unless hes playing like his MVP season.

Are you suggesting that Cabrera hits 3 HR's often to win games? Or do they use ghost runners in Detroit?

Twins Twerp
05-10-2013, 12:38 PM
This came from Klaw chat about 30 seconds ago. I hope he is right about Stewart or Manaea. I only posted the same question about Manaea and Stewart 40 times before the program picked this one up:
Question:
Jim Callis said there are rumors the Twins might pop Reese McGuire at #4 and save money for later picks. Have you heard that? As a Twins fan I'm less than excited about that idea.
Klaw (1:36 PM)


I have heard that, but I do not believe they would actually do it. I've heard them heavily on Stewart and think they'd be on Manaea if he were to finish strongly (and healthy). Highest I'm legitimately hearing McGuire is 6 or 9.

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 01:06 PM
Heavily on Stewart. That would be new. Risky but reasonable pick for Johnson.

Brock Beauchamp
05-10-2013, 01:10 PM
When your team looks to be on the upswing, you don't blow your last chance at a top five pick by drafting down to spend more in the later rounds, something you can do every other year you draft.

The Twins front office would have to be certifiably stupid to even consider such a thing.

TRex
05-10-2013, 01:27 PM
Another important consideration for drafting under slot is where you pick. For example, if you use last year's draft, and assume you are drafting someone 3 slots above where they are they are predicted to go...

Correa worked out great last year for the Astros because they gave him around the bonus for slot 4 and saved $2.4 million. However, if the team drafting #4 had selected a consensus #7 guy, they would've only saved ~1.2. A similar situation in 2013 (i.e. over-drafting by ~3 slots) would save the team drafting #1 $3.3 million while the Twins would only save $1.25 million. While this would have been enough to cover the difference for McCullers last year ($1.24 million), it would still tie your hands in negotiations.

Winston Smith
05-10-2013, 02:25 PM
Do whatever the experts say because they are always correct and always agree with each other.

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 02:36 PM
I'm pretty sure all the experts are saying the Twins should take the best pitcher available. The whole under slot McGuire thing comes from their Twins sources.

I don't understand the big deal of exploring your options. The Twins front office would be stupid to even consider such a thing? People said they were stupid last year for taking Buxton over a pitcher and how has that turned out? While I prefer BPA than going under slot, I just don't see the big deal in exploring other options.

diehardtwinsfan
05-10-2013, 03:02 PM
It all depends on the scenario. If you could trade the 4 overall pick for say a guy who would likely go 8-10 (and given the drop off from the top 3, it sounds like there's little distingusing number 4 from number 10) and then pick up a highschool tough sign that would likely be a 10-20 type guy, I'd say it's worth it. That said, these are going to be high schoolers, which means they will not help in 2015.

With the Twins next wave, their biggest need is on the mound or SS. There is no college SS that will compliment that wave, so getting a college pitcher to me seems like a higher priority. Definitely praying that Appel or Gray manages to fall as Houston cuts a deal with a guy like Stewart and Colorado falls in love with Bryant, but I really think Minnesota is going to end up with Manaea. Given that his drop off is likely related to a hip injury, I wouldn't be disappointed.

nicksaviking
05-10-2013, 03:11 PM
If it's Manaea teams surely will have done their homework on him. Just like the NFL draft, even the most intrepid reporters probably still don't know what each team's medical staffs know about the guy. I just wish it wasn't the Twins medical staff doing the evaluations.

Siehbiscuit
05-10-2013, 03:15 PM
I have stated my dislike for Manaea before and to me there doesn't seem to be a consensus best player for the Twins to take. After the Appel, Gray and lately Bryant there is a whole lot of similarity in talent from 4-10 (like another poster said). To me, signing a guy like McGuire, who may be #8-12 on the Twins board, but saves them $1.5 million, is kind of like trading trades that happen in the NFL Draft. You trade back from 4 and get the other teams #8 and also their 20th overall pick.

I know its a little apples to oranges, but this may not be too dissimilar to missing out on Andrew Luck and RGIII last year. They moved back one spot and got an extra pick out of the deal. There is very little that distinguishes these next tier of players.

mike wants wins
05-10-2013, 03:22 PM
Except it isn't like the NFL at all.....you are "trading back" 30 picks, and the odds of the guy you want being there are very, very, very tiny.

johnnydakota
05-10-2013, 03:28 PM
I actually really liked what the Astros did last year. They took a very high upside middle infielder maybe 2-4 spots early (still a top 5-6 pick), got him for a very fair deal, then they were able to get McCullers and Ruiz later because they were going to be tough signs. That played out perfectly for them, but as mww wrote, you don't know that it's going to play out like that either.

The Twins aren't afraid to spend. They showed that last year. They'll be smart, but they'll feel convicted that the guy they take is the right guy to attempt to develop!

You mean they spent heavy on rounds 11-45? or That they spent almost all of there alloted money for rounds 1-10?

ashburyjohn
05-10-2013, 03:32 PM
Do whatever the experts say because they are always correct and always agree with each other.

Who do you like at #4?

johnnydakota
05-10-2013, 03:32 PM
BA had Buxton 1 and Correa 2. Sickels had Correa his #1 last year. Law said while he had Buxton as his #1 prospect all year that it wouldn't surprise him if Correa ended up being the best player from the draft. They have comparable talent but one came at a significant discount. I see nothing wrong with what they did. Don't forget, Correa is a year younger than Buxton so he has plenty of time to catch up.

Back to the Twins. I have no problem if the Twins taking a under slot guy at 4 BUT the guy they take still has to be a top talent. Also, its too early to know who might slip due to signability but if they are saving money for later they better spend it.

Yup always take the blue-light special and save a few coins , instead of getting a brand name product...

cmathewson
05-10-2013, 03:36 PM
Put me down for drafting the best player available and paying the man. I happen to like Minaea followed by Stewart. I'm pretty sure one or the other will be available.

diehardtwinsfan
05-10-2013, 03:55 PM
Put me down for drafting the best player available and paying the man. I happen to like Minaea followed by Stewart. I'm pretty sure one or the other will be available.

I tend to be with you here. I'd be fine with either one. If the Twins aren't as high on them though, then I could see the trade down.

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 04:18 PM
To all the people who are saying they want the Twins to draft Manaea is it just because he is a college pitcher? Because he sure hasn't pitched like a #4 pick should. He is covered in red flags. If people don't want the Twins to reach for a under slot guy then why do you want them to reach for a need? Throwing away value is throwing away value.

Oxtung
05-11-2013, 02:30 AM
When your team looks to be on the upswing, you don't blow your last chance at a top five pick by drafting down to spend more in the later rounds, something you can do every other year you draft.

The Twins front office would have to be certifiably stupid to even consider such a thing.


I'm no draft expert but isn't this really the last year they could reasonably draft underslot as well?

I mean if you're drafting let's say 15th, the slot value this year is $2.4m. In order to get a tidy sum of $1.5m to spend later in the draft you'd have to drop all the way to the 59th pick in talent level. So you'd have to drop to second round talent just to save enough money to sign that tough sign middle of the 1st round talent you want to sign in the second round.

On the other hand the Twins slot this year is worth $4.5m but if they sign a talent expected to go just 5 slots lower they save that same $1.5m.

I just don't see how the underslot draft strategy can work much past the 4th pick overall because slot values start to plateau quickly.

kab21
05-11-2013, 02:41 AM
The problem is that the underslot pick won't usually take the full underslot amount for 5 picks lower. You are probably looking at saving half of that amount because that player might not drop all the way to #10.

I said it earlier but if they have two guys basically tied on their draft board and one is projected to go closer to #10 then I can understand going underslot to save about 1M to spend later in the draft. An extra 1M brings the value of the #42 pick up to about the same as the #15 so they would have a chance of getting a pretty good talent if one fell because of signability.

Oxtung
05-11-2013, 03:24 AM
The problem is that the underslot pick won't usually take the full underslot amount for 5 picks lower. You are probably looking at saving half of that amount because that player might not drop all the way to #10.

I said it earlier but if they have two guys basically tied on their draft board and one is projected to go closer to #10 then I can understand going underslot to save about 1M to spend later in the draft. An extra 1M brings the value of the #42 pick up to about the same as the #15 so they would have a chance of getting a pretty good talent if one fell because of signability.

Even with 42nd pick talent instead of 59th pick talent (which doesn't really make sense because if the 10th overall talent thinks he would have gone higher and you end up splitting the difference then the 42/59th level talent thinks he should have gone higher and you'll split that difference too, but this is a minor quible) it still doesn't make any sense. You'd be giving up on a guaranteed middle of the first round talent + guaranteed middle of the second round talent for the guaranteed middle of the second round talent and a chance at a middle of a first round pick.

Or in a more visual form:

15th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder
59th pick: chance at mid-first rounder if he falls to you
vs.
15th pick: Guaranteed mid-1st Rounder
59th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder

The reason it makes sense with high draft picks is because you get this scenario:

#4 Pick: Guaranteed top 10 pick
#43 Pick: Chance at mid-1st rounder if he falls
vs.
#4 Pick: Guaranteed Top 10 talent
#43 Pick: Guaranteed 2nd round talent

diehardtwinsfan
05-11-2013, 07:42 AM
The trick to cutting a deal is that no one else has done it. There won't be a ton of HS first round type talent guys that fall. If Houston does it with 1 overall, then I see no reason for MN to do it.

One downside to it is that none of these guys are going to help the next wave. You might get a college guy like Chris Anderson to sign under slot, but that would be about as close as it gets. Your next pick will most certainly be a high school talent that won't be here anytime soon (now to caveat this, if they think Anderson is the best talent, then you do it). To be clear, I'm not terribly against it, but I think I'd prefer Stewart or Manaea assuming the big 2 are gone.

What I kind of wonder is if Stewart would go under slot at 4. I would almost certainly bet that he'd go under slot at 1 over all. If Houston wants to do what they did last year, I think Stewart makes far more sense for them than Appel or Gray. He's still a number 1. Age wise he fits into their next wave, and signing him for say 4M would give them a chance to throw 3M at another falling prep draftee.

silverslugger
05-11-2013, 08:05 AM
There's no reason for Stewart to go under slot at 4. He and his agent realize he most likely won't be around past 6. From a player's perspective, you take under slot money at 4 because you realize you'll probably go 8-10 but could fall into the mid teens. So, you take 8-10 slot money at 4 as insurance that you won't have to accept mid 1st round slot if you fall.

So, getting back to Stewart. The only scenario in which Stewart should accept under slot is if he is being picked at 1 or 2 and getting 4 or 5 money to guarantee he won't have to take 6-8 money. Houston could do this at 1, Chicago won't do this with their #2. Houston doing this is about the only chance the Twins have at seeing one of the top 3 fall to 4.

silverslugger
05-11-2013, 08:13 AM
What I find really fascinating in all this talk about under slot/over slot etc. etc. etc. is that people are forgetting that after the top 3 in this draft the other players all basically come in waves of talent. In other words, the top three are the first wave, then there's the next level of talent which includes about a half dozen players, then the next level which is the mid-first rounders, etc.

The reality is, many of these players (about half?) will flame out and never do anything meaningful at the major league level. It's practically impossible to tell who that will be at this point. We simply have no idea who will be the better major leaguer at this point, Manaea or Stewart or McGuire or whoever. Neither do the scouts or the front offices. The NFL draft is full of busts and it doesn't include high schoolers and non of those players have to spend years toiling in the minors before attempting to make an NFL team. The MLB draft is truly a crapshoot. So I guess what I'm saying in all this rambling is, as fans, we probably shouldn't get our undies in too much of a bunch when the Twins don't do what we expected them to do with pick 4.

Finally, the fact that round 1 and 2 in the baseball draft produce more top end talent than ever before in it's history is duly noted thanks to other posters and other threads. And...what fun is being a fan if your undies aren't in a bunch so...go ahead and bunch!

TwinsFanInPhilly
05-11-2013, 09:48 AM
Except it isn't like the NFL at all.....you are "trading back" 30 picks, and the odds of the guy you want being there are very, very, very tiny.

In the NFL there is little risk that a player will forego playing pro and go to college. That's the obvious point that you conveniently ignore

Jeremy Nygaard
05-11-2013, 11:22 AM
I've enjoyed this discussion. This is from an interview I did with Twins West Coast Scouting Supervisor Sean Johnson a few months ago in regards to cutting deals with guys to save money:


First, you have to analyze the draft crop and see what the strengths are. Obviously we thought about all the scenarios, but you don’t want to save money up for a guy who might not be there. We really like Buxton. We saved some money here and there, but we always just tried to take the next best guy.

Next year we have one of the biggest pools. We had a huge pool last year. We can explore. If we don’t like any of the guys that want a certain amount of money, we have options. There’s not clear cut group of four or five guys. It’s wide open.

kab21
05-11-2013, 11:25 AM
Even with 42nd pick talent instead of 59th pick talent (which doesn't really make sense because if the 10th overall talent thinks he would have gone higher and you end up splitting the difference then the 42/59th level talent thinks he should have gone higher and you'll split that difference too, but this is a minor quible) it still doesn't make any sense. You'd be giving up on a guaranteed middle of the first round talent + guaranteed middle of the second round talent for the guaranteed middle of the second round talent and a chance at a middle of a first round pick.

Or in a more visual form:

15th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder
59th pick: chance at mid-first rounder if he falls to you
vs.
15th pick: Guaranteed mid-1st Rounder
59th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder

The reason it makes sense with high draft picks is because you get this scenario:

#4 Pick: Guaranteed top 10 pick
#43 Pick: Chance at mid-1st rounder if he falls
vs.
#4 Pick: Guaranteed Top 10 talent
#43 Pick: Guaranteed 2nd round talent

I have no idea what you are doing here. Absolutely no clue. Where in the world did #59 come from?

#4 and #43 if you don't go underslot

vs

#10 (but #4b on the Twins board) and #15 talent that dropped due to signability

If the Twins have a 4b player that they consider equivalent to the BPA but cheaper then this can work. The tier after Bryant doesn't really have one guy that is leading it. I'm just hoping that they take Stewart but he isn't a slam dunk and the Twins scouts could have big concerns about him that internet scouts don't.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-11-2013, 11:30 AM
Stewart's also a Type 1 diabetic, so there is that to consider as well. Personally, if he's offered $3.2, $3.3m, I'd be surprised if he said no.

Here's a thought:
4. Twins slot $4.5m
5. Indians slot $3.8m
6. Marlins slot $3.5m
7. Red Sox slow $3.246m

If the Twins call the reps for Frazier, Stewart and Manaea the day before the draft and say, "We'll take the guy that agrees to sign for $3.3, or we'll take somebody else..." (Maybe McGuire...?) Who says no?

I'd bet Manaea says no first. The likelihood is that the Marlins won't pay full slot. The Indians have been linked to college pitching.

Oxtung
05-11-2013, 01:56 PM
I have no idea what you are doing here. Absolutely no clue. Where in the world did #59 come from?

#4 and #43 if you don't go underslot

vs

#10 (but #4b on the Twins board) and #15 talent that dropped due to signability

If the Twins have a 4b player that they consider equivalent to the BPA but cheaper then this can work. The tier after Bryant doesn't really have one guy that is leading it. I'm just hoping that they take Stewart but he isn't a slam dunk and the Twins scouts could have big concerns about him that internet scouts don't.

I agree that the Twins could go underslot this year, no problem.

I was responding to Brock's post that the Twins, who theoretically won't be picking this high again in the near future, can't get a top 5 talent in the future but could still go the underslot route. I was attempting to show that really isn't true.

Pick 15 was just a "we could have pick 15 next year if we stay around .500," and in order to save $1.5m dollars with the 15th pick, because of the plateauing of slot values, the Twins would have to sign a player that wasn't expected to go until around pick #59, which has a slot value ~$1.5m less than pick 15. In which case the Twins would have essentially given up a guaranteed first round pick to sign a guaranteed second round pick all with the hopes that when their second round pick does come around that the "hard to sign 1st round talent but fell to the second round" still is there.

So my whole post was just attempting to refute Brock's claim that the Twins could still go underslot in future years even if they don't have a high draft pick.

cmb0252
05-11-2013, 02:36 PM
Stewart's also a Type 1 diabetic, so there is that to consider as well. Personally, if he's offered $3.2, $3.3m, I'd be surprised if he said no.

Here's a thought:
4. Twins slot $4.5m
5. Indians slot $3.8m
6. Marlins slot $3.5m
7. Red Sox slow $3.246m

If the Twins call the reps for Frazier, Stewart and Manaea the day before the draft and say, "We'll take the guy that agrees to sign for $3.3, or we'll take somebody else..." (Maybe McGuire...?) Who says no?

I'd bet Manaea says no first. The likelihood is that the Marlins won't pay full slot. The Indians have been linked to college pitching.

This is a great point. While I'm not sure you will get that big of discount, I bet you can get a couple 100k off like last year at least. Either way with how this draft is shaping up, for better or worse, there is no clear cut best player at 4 if Gray/appel/Bryant go off the board. This surprisingly gives the Twins some extra leverage as Jeremy pointed out above.

Vervehound
05-11-2013, 04:08 PM
When your team looks to be on the upswing, you don't blow your last chance at a top five pick by drafting down to spend more in the later rounds, something you can do every other year you draft.

The Twins front office would have to be certifiably stupid to even consider such a thing. actually, the only reason to consider doing this is because the twins have such a high pick. their pool is inflated because of that pick amount so if they could get a guy like McGuire to sign for mid-round money, they may have a couple million to throw around. it makes additional sense to consider this in a weak draft where there is no clear cut no. 4 player. I kind've like the idea but that's tempered with the thought that there is no guarantee as to who is going to be on the board in later rounds and that the twins may not actually spend their entire pool.

Brodin4Calder
05-11-2013, 09:54 PM
This came from Klaw chat about 30 seconds ago. I hope he is right about Stewart or Manaea. I only posted the same question about Manaea and Stewart 40 times before the program picked this one up:
Question:
Jim Callis said there are rumors the Twins might pop Reese McGuire at #4 and save money for later picks. Have you heard that? As a Twins fan I'm less than excited about that idea.
Klaw (1:36 PM)




I have heard that, but I do not believe they would actually do it. I've heard them heavily on Stewart and think they'd be on Manaea if he were to finish strongly (and healthy). Highest I'm legitimately hearing McGuire is 6 or 9.

Thats good news. The Twins need to take a top arm this year, yea they can say theres a risk in Manaeas inconsistency and Stewarts minor injuries but they have sooo much upside. Stewart has the stuff to be as good or better than Appel and Gray but hes a 3-4 year project, and Manaea has ace stuff too and hes closer to being ready but hes been inconsistent. I just hope they take one of them or if Appel, Gray or Bryant is there take one of them.

30whales
05-11-2013, 10:55 PM
I haven't really followed the draft closely ever other than last season but I am just wondering why everyone is down on Manaea and his performance this year? He has a 1.58 ERA. I mean I guess I think it might be in a weaker conference but that still looks pretty darn good to me. Again, I am fairly new to this stuff so I have no idea.

kab21
05-12-2013, 01:21 AM
I haven't really followed the draft closely ever other than last season but I am just wondering why everyone is down on Manaea and his performance this year? He has a 1.58 ERA. I mean I guess I think it might be in a weaker conference but that still looks pretty darn good to me. Again, I am fairly new to this stuff so I have no idea.

Nagging injuries, reports that his velocity has dipped below 90 (from mid 90's) and inconsistent secondary pitches are why people are down on Manaea.

gunnarthor
05-12-2013, 09:04 AM
Nagging injuries, reports that his velocity has dipped below 90 (from mid 90's) and inconsistent secondary pitches are why people are down on Manaea.

I wonder if there is an-Appel like concern with him, too. In that Boras might want him to be paid like the guy we saw in the Cape which could cause him to fall pretty far and then not sign at all.

Brock Beauchamp
05-12-2013, 09:19 AM
actually, the only reason to consider doing this is because the twins have such a high pick. their pool is inflated because of that pick amount so if they could get a guy like McGuire to sign for mid-round money, they may have a couple million to throw around. it makes additional sense to consider this in a weak draft where there is no clear cut no. 4 player. I kind've like the idea but that's tempered with the thought that there is no guarantee as to who is going to be on the board in later rounds and that the twins may not actually spend their entire pool.

I wasn't clear with that post... I meant "you can get mid-round talent any other year", not that the Twins should underslot in later years.

I view underslot drafting as a good thing in the case of the Astros. They need bodies and lots of 'em. Their Major League roster is awful, their minors were in even worse shape, and they just needed talent... Piles and piles of talent.

So drafting underslot and picking up as many talented players as possible makes a lot of sense. You're sacrificing a little top-flight talent, sure... But you're making up for it with pure numbers, something the Astros need badly to compete before 2020.

The Twins aren't in that situation. They have Major League talent. They have a loaded farm system. What they need are top-flight players, not a pile of mid-round players who may or may not be above-average Major League players.

Plus, the Astros will always get another shot at a top-five pick next season. They're bloody awful and should be in no rush to compete. The Twins? This is their last shot at a top pick for a few years unless something goes disastrously wrong. That's why I think blowing your last opportunity at top-five talent is utter foolishness. The only exception being that the Twins don't like any of the players in the top five (which is unlikely), in which case it makes sense to drop a few slots and pick up the guy you want the most. If the Twins are left in a "meh" situation with the fourth pick, I guess underslotting isn't the worst thing in the world... But given past drafts, I don't know if that's going to happen.

cmathewson
05-12-2013, 09:38 AM
actually, the only reason to consider doing this is because the twins have such a high pick. their pool is inflated because of that pick amount so if they could get a guy like McGuire to sign for mid-round money, they may have a couple million to throw around. it makes additional sense to consider this in a weak draft where there is no clear cut no. 4 player. I kind've like the idea but that's tempered with the thought that there is no guarantee as to who is going to be on the board in later rounds and that the twins may not actually spend their entire pool.

It all hinges on the quality of the player they make a deal with. I was not fond of the Revere deal because they passed up better talent just to save money.

If McGuire is a number 4 talent, (in this draft where there might be, say, 10 of those guys), do it.

greengoblinrulz
05-12-2013, 01:48 PM
Its sad to see so many MN Twins fans talking like you. Im not trying to be a dick im just saying the Twins horrible thinking has gotten to the fans. Yes theres alot of busts in every draft but the reward is so great when you take that risk, and theres never a for sure thing. The Twins need a potential ace and have the 4th overall pick with a couple potential aces out there. Do you think the Tigers thought Verlander could be a bust? Yes. Do you think the Dodgers thought Kershaw could be a bust? Yes. But they took the chance and were rewarded. Any player at any level could be a bust. But they could also be the next Verlander.
I cant even remember the last time the Twins took a top arm in the top 5.
Sorry but this was YOUR question & I just answered it, not saying to NOT take a power collegiate pitcher, cause thats what I want them to do.

cmb0252
05-12-2013, 03:29 PM
I haven't really followed the draft closely ever other than last season but I am just wondering why everyone is down on Manaea and his performance this year? He has a 1.58 ERA. I mean I guess I think it might be in a weaker conference but that still looks pretty darn good to me. Again, I am fairly new to this stuff so I have no idea.

While when scouting prospects you do like seeing good stat lines but what is more important are grades. Scouting grades go from 20-80 with 20 being the worst possible grade, 50 being big league average, and 80 being plus plus level. Let's take Keith laws grades for Manaea:

Fastball:55
Fastball movement: 45
Command: 65
Control: 65
Slider: 50
Change up:50
Feel for pitching:65

According to Law's grades all of Manaea's pitches have been average this season and the main reason he has dominated is because of his control/command/feel for pitching. While having all of those is a good thing typical front of the rotation pitchers usually have at least 2 pitches in the 60-70 range. Manaea did show 60-70 grade fastball/slider combo in the cape cod league he hasn't show even close to those in college (before or after).

A lot of pitchers are aces in college but profile as #4-5 type guys in the bigs (Wimmers, Baxendale, or Windle). College to the majors is a big jump. People need to remember Manaea wasn't on the prospect scene before his Cape Cod appearance. He has two more starts to prove not only does he have the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter but that he is healthy.

cmathewson
05-12-2013, 04:02 PM
While when scouting prospects you do like seeing good stat lines but what is more important are grades. Scouting grades go from 20-80 with 20 being the worst possible grade, 50 being big league average, and 80 being plus plus level. Let's take Keith laws grades for Manaea:

Fastball:55
Fastball movement: 45
Command: 65
Control: 65
Slider: 50
Change up:50
Feel for pitching:65

According to Law's grades all of Manaea's pitches have been average this season and the main reason he has dominated is because of his control/command/feel for pitching. While having all of those is a good thing typical front of the rotation pitchers usually have at least 2 pitches in the 60-70 range. Manaea did show 60-70 grade fastball/slider combo in the cape cod league he hasn't show even close to those in college (before or after).

A lot of pitchers are aces in college but profile as #4-5 type guys in the bigs (Wimmers, Baxendale, or Windle). College to the majors is a big jump. People need to remember Manaea wasn't on the prospect scene before his Cape Cod appearance. He has two more starts to prove not only does he have the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter but that he is healthy.

How much of the Cape Cod dominance had to do with wooden bats? Just a theory, but wood bats have smaller sweet spots, making them more susceptible to command/control pitching. To dominate metal bat conferences, you need to have stuff.

cmb0252
05-12-2013, 04:37 PM
How much of the Cape Cod dominance had to do with wooden bats? Just a theory, but wood bats have smaller sweet spots, making them more susceptible to command/control pitching. To dominate metal bat conferences, you need to have stuff.

I don't think the problem is the bats, Manaea has actually put up good numbers this year, but more about his stuff being inconsistent. I don't know if this is due to injuries, fatigue, or the simple fact that the stuff we saw in the Cape was an illusion.

Vervehound
05-12-2013, 09:38 PM
While when scouting prospects you do like seeing good stat lines but what is more important are grades. Scouting grades go from 20-80 with 20 being the worst possible grade, 50 being big league average, and 80 being plus plus level. Let's take Keith laws grades for Manaea:

Fastball:55
Fastball movement: 45
Command: 65
Control: 65
Slider: 50
Change up:50
Feel for pitching:65

According to Law's grades all of Manaea's pitches have been average this season and the main reason he has dominated is because of his control/command/feel for pitching. While having all of those is a good thing typical front of the rotation pitchers usually have at least 2 pitches in the 60-70 range. Manaea did show 60-70 grade fastball/slider combo in the cape cod league he hasn't show even close to those in college (before or after).

A lot of pitchers are aces in college but profile as #4-5 type guys in the bigs (Wimmers, Baxendale, or Windle). College to the majors is a big jump. People need to remember Manaea wasn't on the prospect scene before his Cape Cod appearance. He has two more starts to prove not only does he have the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter but that he is healthy. I can tell that you know your stuff but manaea was absolutely on scouts' radars before last year's cape. he's been inconsistent in the past and has flashed brilliance, but there aren't too many physical lefties that have the raw arm strength he does - he was on a lot of shortlists. that said, that was his only sustained period where he threw a three pitch mix with great effect and the results were awesome. still love the guy but I think he and stewart could be on pretty much the same time frame to the bigs and therefore i'm leaning stewart.