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cmb0252
05-07-2013, 12:24 PM
Let's get one thing straight, mocks are for the fans. No matter how much analysis there is there is no way anyone is going to get things 100% right. Heck, if you get things 20% right you have done a pretty good job.

Look at the Astros last year. They had the #1 pick and had months to figure out who they wanted but didn't decide till the last day who they were taking. Not only did most mocks have them taking Appel but even on draft day there were reports, obviously false ones, that said Appel and the Astros had reached agreement.

Why do we care about them then? Obviously because we are fans and they are fun! OK, other than just being fun they gives at least a little in site into what might happen. While specific picks might be different usually the area where the player is chosen is pretty close and this is especially true in high picks. Which by now you should know the Twins have. Oh and did I mention they are fun?

With a month to go there are going to be a ton of mocks coming out and I figured its better to keep them in one place than flood the forums. I will keep the latest mocks and links up to date. Also, I will only be posting mocks that have been posted in May seeing anything else is already out of date.

Without further a do the mocks:

Christopher Crawford:
May 29th mock: Pick Stewart
http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/05/the-mock-volume-vi-2/

Bleacher Report
May 26th mock: Rosebaum Pick Stewart. Wells Pick Stewart
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1645725-2013-mlb-mock-draft-bleacher-reports-first-round-projection-battle

Another one from Bleacher Report:
May 28th: Pick Stewart
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1653351-2013-mlb-mock-draft-landing-spots-for-top-pitchers-in-first-round

Crawfish Boxes:
May 27th mock: Pick Stewart
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/5/27/4366154/tcb-2013-mlb-mock-draft-v2-0

Scout.com:
May 27th: pick Stewart
http://sbb.scout.com/2/1294726.html

Baseball America:
May 24th: Pick Stewart
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/jim-callis-2013-mock-draft-2-0/

Sports illustrated:
May 30th: Pick Frazier
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130530/mlb-mock-draft-2-0-kris-bryant-jonathan-gray-mark-appel-dave-perkin/

John Sickels:
May 16th: Stewart
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/16/4335316/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-two-john-sickels-may-16

Law:
May 30th: Stewart
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9322119/houston-astros-take-colin-moran-mark-appel-second-mock-draft-2013-mlb-draft

Mayo:
May 30th: Stewart
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&content_id=48991342&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

(Also, if you find a credible one I haven't post please post it and I will add it)

ashburyjohn
05-07-2013, 12:53 PM
My take: if the Twins do choose an outfielder at #4, the trade winds will immediately start blowing. Can't trade the pick within the first year, but someone else big could go for pitching help. It's possible the Twins have such a trade already lined up, and are waiting until after the draft just because you never know who might drop from the top 3. Of course, making such a trade will be a risk until the draft pick proves himself a little; but then taking a pitcher with that pick is also a risk. No getting around that #4 is big-risk big-reward.

cmb0252
05-07-2013, 01:14 PM
Added the Bleacher Report mock. It has two picks so that's why there are two names!

drjim
05-07-2013, 01:19 PM
My take: if the Twins do choose an outfielder at #4, the trade winds will immediately start blowing. Can't trade the pick within the first year, but someone else big could go for pitching help. It's possible the Twins have such a trade already lined up, and are waiting until after the draft just because you never know who might drop from the top 3. Of course, making such a trade will be a risk until the draft pick proves himself a little; but then taking a pitcher with that pick is also a risk. No getting around that #4 is big-risk big-reward.

It just doesn't work this way. They will pick the player they want - almost certainly the top prospect on their board.

cmb0252
05-07-2013, 01:34 PM
Added Crawfish Boxes (Astros equivalent to TwinkieTown) first mock. While this was not done by experts but fans its validity could be in question. The reason I added it was because as stated above these are for fun, they actually did a really good job, but mostly because of the user comments. It was interesting to read how Astro fan view the draft. While most want Appel/Gray there are plenty that prefer other players.

Joe A. Preusser
05-07-2013, 01:35 PM
It just doesn't work this way. They will pick the player they want - almost certainly the top prospect on their board.

It should work this way. I much prefer the NFL in this regard; treat the pick like the commodity it is and let it be traded if preferred.
That being said, you're right, the Twins will absolutely take the best prospect available with their pick. Any subsequent trades will develop organically.

pioneers3
05-07-2013, 01:40 PM
For work last year, we had 30 people do a true Mock Draft of the first 10 rounds...I had the twins. I did select 2 guys the twins took last year in Bard and Chargois. I took Gausman with the #2 pick as I felt the twins were going to go that way. Buxton went #7 to Padres.

Joe A. Preusser
05-07-2013, 01:59 PM
Buxton fell to #7? No offense, but that casts a shade of doubt on the quality of your draft right there. Pretty sure Buxton was considered the concenses #1 by all/most in the know.

cmb0252
05-07-2013, 02:10 PM
Buxton fell to #7? No offense, but that casts a shade of doubt on the quality of your draft right there. Pretty sure Buxton was considered the concenses #1 by all/most in the know.

Appel was considered a lock to go number 1 or 2 last years and he fell. The draft can be a funny thing.

Minorleagueball did a community mock last year and plan to do one again this year. Kind of neat getting a ton of fans of different teams together and see what happens.

drjim
05-07-2013, 02:50 PM
It should work this way. I much prefer the NFL in this regard; treat the pick like the commodity it is and let it be traded if preferred.
That being said, you're right, the Twins will absolutely take the best prospect available with their pick. Any subsequent trades will develop organically.

No argument here.

ashburyjohn
05-07-2013, 03:25 PM
It just doesn't work this way. They will pick the player they want - almost certainly the top prospect on their board.

I fail to see why it "doesn't work" or how what you said is much different than what I said. Pick the player they want, assess the system as a whole after that, then trade if there is significant overweighting in one area.

pioneers3
05-07-2013, 03:28 PM
Buxton fell to #7? No offense, but that casts a shade of doubt on the quality of your draft right there. Pretty sure Buxton was considered the concenses #1 by all/most in the know.

Allen Simpson puts out the draft board, he had Buxton #1 overall, he knows what he is doing, some of the guys I work with, fall in love to easily with 1 guy and stick with him, I went with Gausman because I was trying to think like Terry Ryan and a little birdie told me that College Arms were a priority for him...Of the 10 picks, I took 5 college arms, got 2 right!

Willihammer
05-07-2013, 04:08 PM
Just to be argumentative, I'd argue that drafting the best player isn't necessarily the best move. For a number of reasons, primarily, that MLB players aren't barrels of oil. The market where these "commodities" get traded isn't perfect. Value isn't always clear, and in many cases trade prove to be incredibly lopsided. It might be that a team is better off drafting for need, particularly when you are talking about college players or guys believed to be closer to the majors than younger, riskier high-ceiling talents who play positions where you are already well stocked with young, risky high-ceiling talents.

Joe A. Preusser
05-07-2013, 04:45 PM
Just to be argumentative, I'd argue that drafting the best player isn't necessarily the best move. For a number of reasons, primarily, that MLB players aren't barrels of oil. The market where these "commodities" get traded isn't perfect. Value isn't always clear, and in many cases trade prove to be incredibly lopsided. It might be that a team is better off drafting for need, particularly when you are talking about college players or guys believed to be closer to the majors than younger, riskier high-ceiling talents who play positions where you are already well stocked with young, risky high-ceiling talents.

I've always thought that the strategy for drafting should be very similar to going after big name free agents.

About 95% of the time in the draft you should pick the best available in the draft, and only if you are very stocked overall and have a glaring need should you steer the pick into that "need" area and sacrifice some overall talent. Similarly with free agents, I think it makes more sense to build from within 95% of the time, and only when you are a piece or two away from a championship do you take a leap and invest heavy dollars.

ashburyjohn
05-07-2013, 04:56 PM
It might be that a team is better off drafting for need, particularly when you are talking about college players or guys believed to be closer to the majors than younger, riskier high-ceiling talents who play positions where you are already well stocked with young, risky high-ceiling talents.

I didn't see your view as argumentative, in the negative sense; hopefully my response isn't either.

I'm not sure that drafting for need addresses the issue of risk any better than attempting to determine the BPA. Instead, after the first sure-thing picks are gone, you can try to reduce risk by going for a high-floor guy with a lower ceiling. Of course, no science is available to completely remove the risk of a complete bust, as has been seen many times in recent years.

Need versus BPA seems to come out about the same: 1) if the player turns out to be a starter in MLB, you play him and figure out a way to trade away any excess, 2) if the player is a bust, it doesn't matter either way, and 3) if he's somewhere in the middle, you've addressed a "need" with a mediocrity, something that won't especially satisfy.

Willihammer
05-07-2013, 05:58 PM
About 95% of the time in the draft you should pick the best available in the draft, and only if you are very stocked overall and have a glaring need should you steer the pick into that "need" area and sacrifice some overall talent. Similarly with free agents, I think it makes more sense to build from within 95% of the time, and only when you are a piece or two away from a championship do you take a leap and invest heavy dollars.

To even get to the point where you are just a piece or two away from competing would suggest that your drafts work out such that the BPAs when your number is up are players that fill a deficiency in your farm at that moment. That would have to be some pretty incredible luck of the draw IMO, not to mention luck in hitting in all those positions at an even rate.

When Felix was extended, Dave Cameron wrote a piece about "frictional costs" involved with player transactions. That its sort of a pipe dream to think that teams can just take a talent to market and exchange him for equal value, much less equal value that fills a position of need. Might be that the frictional costs involved with swapping out prospects outweigh any discrepencies in talent between the BPA's and the BPATFAN's (Best Players Available That Fill A Need).

Willihammer
05-07-2013, 06:06 PM
I'm not sure that drafting for need addresses the issue of risk any better than attempting to determine the BPA. Instead, after the first sure-thing picks are gone, you can try to reduce risk by going for a high-floor guy with a lower ceiling. Of course, no science is available to completely remove the risk of a complete bust, as has been seen many times in recent years.

Need versus BPA seems to come out about the same: 1) if the player turns out to be a starter in MLB, you play him and figure out a way to trade away any excess, 2) if the player is a bust, it doesn't matter either way, and 3) if he's somewhere in the middle, you've addressed a "need" with a mediocrity, something that won't especially satisfy.
Yeah I conflated the two issues a bit. There is obviously a floor-ceiling talent scale against which risk is judged. Need vs. BPA is a different issue, to which I'd say again that there is probably a judgment you have to make that asks "is the BPA so much better than this other guy who could fill an expected need for us, that we're willing to risk whatever the market may or may not have available when the expected need arises? Plus, accounting for whatever transactional costs there are, is he still that good?"

kab21
05-07-2013, 07:29 PM
Just to be argumentative, I'd argue that drafting the best player isn't necessarily the best move. For a number of reasons, primarily, that MLB players aren't barrels of oil. The market where these "commodities" get traded isn't perfect. Value isn't always clear, and in many cases trade prove to be incredibly lopsided. It might be that a team is better off drafting for need, particularly when you are talking about college players or guys believed to be closer to the majors than younger, riskier high-ceiling talents who play positions where you are already well stocked with young, risky high-ceiling talents.

I would rather have a stud that I didn't need than an average player that I did. Average players can be found in trades, FA and later in the draft. Elite players are impossible to find.

This draft is shaping up as a tier of 2 players at the top and a 2nd tier is only one player deep (Bryant). If he's there then you take him regardless of need. After that it's a toss up. 6-7 guys make a good case at #4 but nobody has really separated themselves from that tier.

drjim
05-07-2013, 08:23 PM
I would rather have a stud that I didn't need than an average player that I did. Average players can be found in trades, FA and later in the draft. Elite players are impossible to find.

This draft is shaping up as a tier of 2 players at the top and a 2nd tier is only one player deep (Bryant). If he's there then you take him regardless of need. After that it's a toss up. 6-7 guys make a good case at #4 but nobody has really separated themselves from that tier.

This is becoming my fear as well - it is becoming a three person draft.

kab21
05-07-2013, 08:29 PM
This is becoming my fear as well - it is becoming a three person draft.

My other fear is that BA (I think) put Bryant in the Almora tier of hitters in the last draft. The Twins might have a top pick but they got it in terrible draft.

gunnarthor
05-08-2013, 09:30 AM
Scout.com: MLB Mock Draft v1.0 (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1289798.html)

Scout.com's first mock. Has Twins taking Frazier and Stanek and Manaea falling pretty far. I think Frazier is supposed to be the high power GA outfielder and Meadows is the all around player? I think.

drivlikejehu
05-08-2013, 10:11 AM
Here are the #4 picks from the past 10 years:

Adam Loewen
Tim Stauffer
Jeff Niemann
Ryan Zimmerman
Brad Lincoln
Daniel Moskos
Brian Matusz
Tony Sanchez
Christian Colon
Dylan Bundy
Kevin Gausman

What this says to me is - if you can get a quality Major Leaguer at #4, be happy. Other than Zimmerman, the position players have underachieved, while the pitchers have mostly gotten hurt (too early to say on the ultimate results for the more recent picks).

This is of course not to say there's anything in particular about the #4 spot, but just that the draft is risky in general. I'd probably rather the Twins make an under-slot deal at #4 and build depth later, but if they really like Frazier there's nothing wrong with taking him.

cmb0252
05-08-2013, 10:18 AM
Scout.com: MLB Mock Draft v1.0 (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1289798.html)

Scout.com's first mock. Has Twins taking Frazier and Stanek and Manaea falling pretty far. I think Frazier is supposed to be the high power GA outfielder and Meadows is the all around player? I think.

Thanks for the link! Updated now.

cmb0252
05-08-2013, 10:26 AM
Scout.com: MLB Mock Draft v1.0 (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1289798.html)

Scout.com's first mock. Has Twins taking Frazier and Stanek and Manaea falling pretty far. I think Frazier is supposed to be the high power GA outfielder and Meadows is the all around player? I think.

Thanks for the link! Updated now.

And yeah, Meadows is the toolsy one while Frazier profiles as a power hitting COF. I would actually be OK with taking Frazier. Players with his kind of bat speed dont show up often.

gunnarthor
05-08-2013, 10:49 AM
Thanks for the link! Updated now.

And yeah, Meadows is the toolsy one while Frazier profiles as a power hitting COF. I would actually be OK with taking Frazier. Players with his kind of bat speed to show up often.

I honestly haven't been keeping up to date on the GA outfielders. I'd been so convinced the Twins wouldn't go there but now I'm starting to wonder. The area scout we have is really good and the Twins have shown that they want BPA over need so if they think Frazier (or someone else) is the guy, they'll grab him and worry about pitching later.

nicksaviking
05-08-2013, 10:56 AM
Thanks for the link! Updated now.

And yeah, Meadows is the toolsy one while Frazier profiles as a power hitting COF. I would actually be OK with taking Frazier. Players with his kind of bat speed to show up often.

Though Frazier does seem to be an all-or-nothing slugger. Aside from Jim Thome, he is not in the Twins preferred mold of hitting. I like him more than Meadows but if he ends up being a high K kind of guy, he may never even make it to the big leagues in this organization.

Braden Shipley is growing on me too. He's got to be the number 3 college arm at this time. Keith Law says he has a plus fastball but thinks his changeup will end up being his best pitch. I know that would interest the Twins.

ashburyjohn
05-08-2013, 11:31 AM
Braden Shipley is growing on me too. He's got to be the number 3 college arm at this time. Keith Law says he has a plus fastball but thinks his changeup will end up being his best pitch. I know that would interest the Twins.

Shoot. The one double-header I got down to Reno to see, and Shipley wasn't pitching. I had meant to get down there once more, with him in mind, but I'm heading out of town for a couple of weeks and it ain't gonna happen. TD is going to have to suffer without my in-person scouting report. :whacky028:

kab21
05-08-2013, 12:39 PM
Though Frazier does seem to be an all-or-nothing slugger. Aside from Jim Thome, he is not in the Twins preferred mold of hitting. I like him more than Meadows but if he ends up being a high K kind of guy, he may never even make it to the big leagues in this organization.
Just because he will probably end up in a corner doesn't mean that he's an all or nothing slugger. I think Frazier is fairly athletic and could be part of a good OF defense.

nicksaviking
05-08-2013, 01:03 PM
Just because he will probably end up in a corner doesn't mean that he's an all or nothing slugger. I think Frazier is fairly athletic and could be part of a good OF defense.

I'm not sure where this is coming from, are you replying to a different post or did you assume that I assume all corner outfielders are all-or-nothing sluggers?

Either way, he's a grip it and rip it kind of guy, they tend to strike out a lot. Jonathan Mayo has the same concerns:

Who's No. 1? Six leading candidates for the first pick in 2013 First-Year Player Draft | astros.com: News (http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130506&content_id=46752146&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou)

cmb0252
05-08-2013, 02:11 PM
Added a second mock from bleacher report which has the Twins taking Meadows.

PseudoSABR
05-09-2013, 03:19 PM
Jim Callis from BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/jim-callis-mock-draft-1-0/)

4. TWINS: A year ago, Minnesota badly needed pitching but used the No. 2 overall choice on outfielder Byron Buxton, the 2012 draft’s top-rated prospect. While the Twins aren’t as desperate now, they’re still looking at arms. Stewart comes with more risk but similar ceiling to Appel and Gray. Manaea and Ball are other options. Rumors persist that Minnesota could cut a deal with Washington high school catcher Reese McGuire and spend heavily further down in the draft.
PROJECTED PICK: KOHL STEWART.

cmb0252
05-09-2013, 03:23 PM
Jim Callis from BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/jim-callis-mock-draft-1-0/)

Thanks for the post! I will add BAs mock to the list!

gunnarthor
05-09-2013, 03:26 PM
Jim Callis from BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/jim-callis-mock-draft-1-0/)

Reese McGwire pops up again. Certainly some smoke there.

cmb0252
05-09-2013, 03:31 PM
Reese McGwire pops up again. Certainly some smoke there.

Ugh, at this point you have to believe they are in on him.

drivlikejehu
05-09-2013, 03:46 PM
Wouldn't surprise me if the Twins cut a deal and then pocketed the savings.

maxisagod
05-09-2013, 03:55 PM
Wouldn't surprise me if the Twins cut a deal and then pocketed the savings.

Or cut a deal and sign Ryan Boldt with their 2nd pick above slot.

gunnarthor
05-09-2013, 04:18 PM
Wouldn't surprise me if the Twins cut a deal and then pocketed the savings.

Under Carl Pohlad, I'd believe that but I'll give his sons some benefit of the doubt. Not much, but some. But if we don't spend all our allocated draft amount after dropping payroll ....

mlhouse
05-09-2013, 04:26 PM
Braden Shipley is growing on me too. He's got to be the number 3 college arm at this time. Keith Law says he has a plus fastball but thinks his changeup will end up being his best pitch. I know that would interest the Twins.

I think Shipley will be the pick and I agree with you that the fastball-changeup mix will be what interests the Twins. I think they will see Manaea as a higher upside player, but they have been burned now with injured college arms that they will pass on him. The Georgia outfielders are intriguing, but the would prefer Meadows and I see a little bit of Joe Benson in him myself.

kab21
05-09-2013, 09:07 PM
Reese McGwire pops up again. Certainly some smoke there.

I think I would like to see them target Shipley underslot. McGuire doesn't really do it for me. That just seems like a Tony Sanchez (although a college C) pick.

Einstein
05-09-2013, 09:20 PM
I really hope they don't reach on McGuire. Just take the best player.

Here's a Mock Draft Database BTW:
2013 Major League Baseball Mock Draft Database (http://dcprosportsreport.com/MLBMocks.htm)

clutterheart
05-09-2013, 11:08 PM
Sickels says:
One of these guys:
Gray or Appel or Bryant or Frazier
So that probably means Frazier

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 10:15 AM
Updated the list with sports illustrated's mock.

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 10:22 AM
Hmm.....the guy who did the sports illustrated mock has very....interesting takes on players. He mentions before the mock he has Frazier as the #1 prospect in the draft. Here is his right up for the twins and Frazier:


The Twins are building an excellent core of young position players in Trevor Plouffe, Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmalee and last year's number two overall pick, outfielder Byron Buxton. Adding Frazier could give Minnesota the best and most athletic outfield in the majors in five years time. He has legitimate five-tool talent, possesses electric bat speed and is tremendously fast, which allows him to steal bases and be an outstanding defensive player. His closest major league comparison is probably Pirates star Andrew McCutchen.

I have never seen a Frazier-McCutchen comparison before. Interesting

Read More: MLB Mock Draft: Gray looks like best bet at No. 1 -- for now - MLB - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130510/mlb-mock-draft-2013-jonathan-gray-dave-perkin/#ixzz2Su4YM1Lh)

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 10:25 AM
Hmm.....the guy who did the sports illustrated mock has very....interesting takes on players. He mentions before the mock he has Frazier as the #1 prospect in the draft. Here is his right up for the twins and Frazier:


The Twins are building an excellent core of young position players in Trevor Plouffe, Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmalee and last year's number two overall pick, outfielder Byron Buxton. Adding Frazier could give Minnesota the best and most athletic outfield in the majors in five years time. He has legitimate five-tool talent, possesses electric bat speed and is tremendously fast, which allows him to steal bases and be an outstanding defensive player. His closest major league comparison is probably Pirates star Andrew McCutchen.

I have never seen a Frazier-McCutchen comparison before. Interesting

Read More: MLB Mock Draft: Gray looks like best bet at No. 1 -- for now - MLB - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130510/mlb-mock-draft-2013-jonathan-gray-dave-perkin/#ixzz2Su4YM1Lh)


Yeah, I didn't know what to make of that report either. Plouffe and Parmelee aren't exactly exciting players to build around.

Twins Twerp
05-10-2013, 10:46 AM
Yeah, I didn't know what to make of that report either. Plouffe and Parmelee aren't exactly exciting players to build around.

I feel like this guy does not know what he is talking about. Plouffe and Parmalee are not building blocks. Also, how can you mention Hicks w/o Arcia? Buxton w/o Sano or Rosario? Frazier scare me because he I so unique. I have read multiple times that he doesn't really have an MLB comp. Plus the dude is a red head. STAY AWAY FROM REDHEADS. Challenge: Name a ginger who is at least a second division player other than Leeewwwwwwwwwwwwwww Ford?

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 11:05 AM
Challenge: Name a ginger who is at least a second division player other than Leeewwwwwwwwwwwwwww Ford?

Amy Pond.

Oh, wait, you're talking about baseball?

TRex
05-10-2013, 12:10 PM
River Song...

3rd Inning Stretch
05-10-2013, 12:25 PM
I feel like this guy does not know what he is talking about. Plouffe and Parmalee are not building blocks. Also, how can you mention Hicks w/o Arcia? Buxton w/o Sano or Rosario? Frazier scare me because he I so unique. I have read multiple times that he doesn't really have an MLB comp. Plus the dude is a red head. STAY AWAY FROM REDHEADS. Challenge: Name a ginger who is at least a second division player other than Leeewwwwwwwwwwwwwww Ford?

He was only naming guys who had been drafted, hence the others are not named. Silly to not do that, but I believe that is why.

And nowhere does it say Parmelee and Plouffe are building blocks, just part of their younger core already in the majors, which is true. I guess I dont take core to mean they are surefire guys that will be here forever.

ashburyjohn
05-10-2013, 01:10 PM
an excellent core of young position players

And in regard to the other comments following this, he did not quite say the same thing as "a core of excellent young position players". :)

Twins Twerp
05-10-2013, 02:01 PM
He was only naming guys who had been drafted, hence the others are not named. Silly to not do that, but I believe that is why.

And nowhere does it say Parmelee and Plouffe are building blocks, just part of their younger core already in the majors, which is true. I guess I dont take core to mean they are surefire guys that will be here forever.

Rosario was drafted by the Twins not?

3rd Inning Stretch
05-10-2013, 02:38 PM
Rosario was drafted by the Twins not?

Sorry, meant first round picks. I think the thinking behind the comment was they have drafted well in the first round with position players sans Michael in the last 10 years since Plouffe.

If he was going anywhere else with it, it doesnt make sense.

diehardtwinsfan
05-10-2013, 09:35 PM
Yeah, I didn't know what to make of that report either. Plouffe and Parmelee aren't exactly exciting players to build around.

The key word with these guys is "Could". They could be building blocks. They could be place holders. The nice thing about having little expectation is that the Twins can trot them out every day for the next year or two and get a decent idea if they are worth keeping or worth trading as the next wave arrives.

Given the need and where the Twin's lack, my gut says Plouffe eventually finds his way back to short where he can provide an above average bat and enough years of experience that the jitters are gone.

Oxtung
05-11-2013, 12:38 AM
Since he concludes his thought with, "Adding Frazier could give Minnesota the best and most athletic outfield in the majors in five years time." I think he was only mentioning other potential pieces of that OF with some name recognition so his national audience could relate to his writing. The only big missing piece of the OF puzzle was Arcia and he isn't exactly a big name at this point outside of Twins circles where as Hicks spent the entire spring training being fawned over by many major media sources.

Twins Twerp
05-11-2013, 01:03 AM
Sorry, meant first round picks. I think the thinking behind the comment was they have drafted well in the first round with position players sans Michael in the last 10 years since Plouffe.

If he was going anywhere else with it, it doesnt make sense.

Hat is exactly what he meant. Now that u say that I get it. They have drafted position players who have at least kade it to the bi

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 10:29 AM
John Sickels put out his Mock draft today and I believe Law is putting one out today too. If Law does I will add it when it comes out but for now here is Sickels mock:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/16/4335316/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-two-john-sickels-may-16

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 10:45 AM
Keith Law released his first mock draft:

Houston Astros do not take Mark Appel in first mock draft of 2013 - MLB Draft - ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9277478/houston-astros-do-not-take-mark-appel-first-mock-draft-2013-mlb-draft)

It is behind the money wall but here is what he says about the Twins pick, Stewart in this mock;

"They've been very heavy on Stewart over his last few outings, and he's an ideal fit for a system that needs high-upside pitchers, with Stewart offering the athleticism the Twins have always favored in position players.
There is a persistent rumor that the Twins will cut a deal with prep catcher Reese McGuire for less than MLB's recommended bonus, which would allow them to apply those savings later in the draft. But Stewart is clearly the better choice and appears to be higher on their internal board, below only the three players who I project to go in the top three."

nicksaviking
05-16-2013, 11:03 AM
I hope Law is right about the Twins draft board and their intentions.

mike wants wins
05-16-2013, 11:35 AM
I'm a ginger, or was for most of my life.....and this thread needs more Dr. Who, frankly.....

but I agree, I hope Law is right.

gunnarthor
05-16-2013, 11:40 AM
Where did Ryan Boldt go in his mock?

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 11:45 AM
Where did Ryan Boldt go in his mock?

Not in the first round.

From his chat today on Boldt:

Ryan Boldt college bound or does team with large pool like astros try and get him in 2nd or 3rd?
Klaw (12:42 PM)


If the medicals came back OK, I'd love to take him at 40 if I were Houston and pay him over slot.

gunnarthor
05-16-2013, 11:46 AM
Not in the first round.

Thanks. I wonder if he'd sign in we take him at 43.

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 11:54 AM
Thanks. I wonder if he'd sign in we take him at 43.

He would be a steal in the second round based on his talent alone. Twins would have to find extra money some where because you most likely would have to go over slot on him.

drjim
05-16-2013, 12:08 PM
Given the need and where the Twin's lack, my gut says Plouffe eventually finds his way back to short where he can provide an above average bat and enough years of experience that the jitters are gone.

I would reexamine your gut. There is no chance Plouffe goes anywhere near SS again. He probably ends up in LF soon.

drjim
05-16-2013, 12:13 PM
I can live with Stewart. Glad the consensus is starting to move that way.

One takeaway from Law is how unsettled Houston currently is. It would be a dream scenario if they passed on the big three.

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 12:19 PM
I can live with Stewart. Glad the consensus is starting to move that way.

One takeaway from Law is how unsettled Houston currently is. It would be a dream scenario if they passed on the big three.

I think dream is the key word. While Houston could do something crazy I still don't see either of Appel or Gray making it past both the Cubs/Rockies

kab21
05-16-2013, 12:23 PM
The one thing about having early picks is that the Twins can go overslot by more than other teams below them and not lose a draft pick. They can spend an additional 5% (700+K) on the draft and only pay an additional 75% tax on the overage. I consider this unlikely but it does give them options if Boldt or someone drops to the 2nd rd. That means they could offer mid/late 1st rd money to someone if they fell.

Note - If I'm not mistaken a few agents exploited this last year and a couple of top ten overall draftees signed contracts taking advantage of this extra money.

gunnarthor
05-16-2013, 01:00 PM
I'm a ginger, or was for most of my life.....and this thread needs more Dr. Who, frankly.....


4093

gunnarthor
05-16-2013, 01:05 PM
4094

Dance with Disco Dan
05-16-2013, 01:07 PM
I can live with Stewart. Glad the consensus is starting to move that way.

Me too. I am all in on the Stewart lottery ticket. Just grimace and roll those dice, TR.

gunnarthor
05-16-2013, 01:08 PM
4095

And done!

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 01:34 PM
Stewart at 4 would be a solid pick. I did find it interesting in Laws mock he had Frazier, who is another name often linked with the Twins, fall all the way to 13. In his chat he mentioned the highest he has heard Frazier is 7.

drjim
05-16-2013, 04:22 PM
I think dream is the key word. While Houston could do something crazy I still don't see either of Appel or Gray making it past both the Cubs/Rockies

No question it is a dream. Here is the only far-fetched scenario that allows a pitcher to fall to the Twins.
Houston decides to take Moran. Extremely unlikely but I read a little smoke on this and it would be a possibility within their analytics, as well as to save the most cash for later picks.
Cubs take Gray.
Rockies take Bryant because they are high on him and don't want to deal with Boras.
Twins take Appel.

maxisagod
05-16-2013, 05:08 PM
Rockies take Bryant because they are high on him and don't want to deal with Boras.
Twins take Appel.
This assumes Bryant isn't a Boras client...

Einstein
05-16-2013, 06:34 PM
Through The Fence top 5:
Mock 2013 MLB draft: Top 75 picks (http://throughthefencebaseball.com/mock-2013-mlb-draft-top-75-picks/33075)

1. Houston Astros — Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
I’m sticking with Appel here as the 6’-5” right-hander has proven to be the most complete pitcher in the 2013 MLB draft and arguably the safest pick on the mound. Over 12 starts, he is 8-4 with a 1.97 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 110 K/20 BB over 91.1 innings. His 7.6 innings-per-start show the kind of stamina he has, and he maintains his velocity late in games.
2. Chicago Cubs — Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma

All signs point to the Cubs taking either Appel or Gray — whoever is still available, or Appel if the Astros opt to go with a bat such as Kris Bryant. The 6’-4”, 240-pound right-hander can touch triple-digits with his fastball to go along with a plus slider and above-average change-up. He doesn’t have the track record Appel does, but the stuff might be better. Over 13 starts, he is 8-2 with a 1.43 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 112 K/19 BB over 94.2 innings. He is holding opponents to a .175 batting average.
3. Colorado Rockies — Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego
No doubt the best bat in the 2013 MLB draft, the 6’-5” right-hander has enormous power and a great approach at the plate. He leads the nation in home runs with 28, as well as walks with 56. Over 52 games, he is hitting .346/.506/.880. The big question is can he remain at the hot corner, and more and more people are thinking he can. If not, he is athletic enough to hold down a corner outfield spot, and his bat will more than play well in Coors Field.
4. Minnesota Twins — Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (GA)
The quickest bat in the 2013 MLB draft, Frazier is an aggressive player who hits the ball with such authority, his raw power is disturbing at times. The 6’-1” right-hander is hitting .505 over 30 games with 16 home runs and a .571 OBP/1.165 SLG. His arm and speed are both above-average, and you aren’t going to find a more exciting player to watch.
5. Cleveland Indians — Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X HS (TX)
With his low mid-90s fastball, as well as three other quality pitches, the 6’-3” right-hander simply overpowered prep batters this season, allowing just 13 hits over 40 innings, striking out 59. His slider looks like a plus pitch, and both his curveball and change-up are following suit. He may have the highest upside in the 2013 MLB draft.

drjim
05-16-2013, 10:26 PM
This assumes Bryant isn't a Boras client...

True, but I was thinking more on the lines of a senior sign and the impact that can have on other signings.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
05-16-2013, 11:12 PM
I feel like this guy does not know what he is talking about. Plouffe and Parmalee are not building blocks. Also, how can you mention Hicks w/o Arcia? Buxton w/o Sano or Rosario? Frazier scare me because he I so unique. I have read multiple times that he doesn't really have an MLB comp. Plus the dude is a red head. STAY AWAY FROM REDHEADS. Challenge: Name a ginger who is at least a second division player other than Leeewwwwwwwwwwwwwww Ford?

I thought the same thing with Andy Dalton, but look how that worked out. Different sport, but still.

Twins Twerp
05-16-2013, 11:43 PM
I thought the same thing with Andy Dalton, but look how that worked out. Different sport, but still.

I saw an article that listen a bunch ofred head football players, mostly qbs...such boomer eisison, len dawson and others. Baseball was less favorable for the gingers. I feel it is a complete crapshoot. The fact that 1.7 percent of the population is ginger makes it less likely more than any genitical factor that gingers are less athletic. Nurture vs. Nature in my opinion.

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 07:55 PM
Mayo over at mlb.com released his first mock and has the Twins taking Manaea. He also has one of my personal favorites, Kyle Serrano, not being taken in the first round. I would jump for joy if he fell to the Twins in the second round. Here is a link to his mock.

Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel project to be first two picks in MLB First-Year Player Draft | MLB.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130515&content_id=47666630&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb)

Jeremy Nygaard
05-19-2013, 08:00 PM
This assumes Bryant isn't a Boras client...

Kris Bryant IS being advised by Scott Boras.

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 08:12 PM
Kris Bryant IS being advised by Scott Boras.

Damn you Boras and your choke hold on all the too draft prospects!

I'm not too worried about any of the prospects the Twins are looking at 4 to sign but it would be nice to save a few hundred million like last year with Buxton. Especially if Boldt is falling and someone will have to pay him over slot to get him to sign at let's say...pick 43.

AM.
05-19-2013, 08:42 PM
Whoever was advising Buxton to sign for a few hundred million under...should be fired.

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 08:48 PM
Whoever was advising Buxton to sign for a few hundred million under...should be fired.

Even though Buxton signed for 200k under slot he still signed for a 1.2 million more than any other prospect. 15 out of the 30 first round prospects that signed last year were under slot.

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 09:04 PM
Here is another mock from Through the Fence baseball website. They have the Twins taking Frazier at 4 and UC Irvine's Andrew Thurman at 43.

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/mock-2013-mlb-draft-top-75-picks/33075

maxisagod
05-19-2013, 09:17 PM
Here is another mock from Through the Fence baseball website. They have the Twins taking Frazier at 4 and UC Irvine's Andrew Thurman at 43.

Mock 2013 MLB draft: Top 75 picks (http://throughthefencebaseball.com/mock-2013-mlb-draft-top-75-picks/33075)

Picking Thurman while boldt is still on the board at 43 is interesting. He must be thinking the Twins wouldn't take two high school outfielders with their 1st two picks.

biggentleben
05-19-2013, 10:11 PM
So, this is a poster's mock on Sickels' site after doing a long study of drafting trends of each front office:

Cookiedabookie's 2013 MLB Mock Draft - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/13/4328280/cookiedabookies-2013-mlb-mock-draft#comments)

His draft would have the Twins getting Gray and Windle, which would be a huge steal for the Twinkies!

Brodin4Calder
05-19-2013, 10:24 PM
So, this is a poster's mock on Sickels' site after doing a long study of drafting trends of each front office:

Cookiedabookie's 2013 MLB Mock Draft - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/13/4328280/cookiedabookies-2013-mlb-mock-draft#comments)

His draft would have the Twins getting Gray and Windle, which would be a huge steal for the Twinkies!

Wouldnt that be awesome if we got Gray or Appel? I could see HOU making a deal for sure, maybe for Moran or a top prep bat? I have been seeing more and more rumors about HOU making a deal, hopefully theres some truth to them!

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 10:41 PM
Wouldnt that be awesome if we got Gray or Appel? I could see HOU making a deal for sure, maybe for Moran or a top prep bat? I have been seeing more and more rumors about HOU making a deal, hopefully theres some truth to them!

It would be awesome but it isn't going to happen. The Astros are just doing their homework. The three teams that draft in front of the Twins need pitching just as bad, if not more than, the Twins. We have Gibson and Meyers who are better pitching prospects than anyone the cubs, Astros, or Rockies have. Once again, getting Gray or Appel would be great but it is a pipe dream.

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 10:45 PM
So, this is a poster's mock on Sickels' site after doing a long study of drafting trends of each front office:

Cookiedabookie's 2013 MLB Mock Draft - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/13/4328280/cookiedabookies-2013-mlb-mock-draft#comments)

His draft would have the Twins getting Gray and Windle, which would be a huge steal for the Twinkies!

Personally I'm not big on Windle. Low upside. Like Wimmers a few years ago his value comes from his speed to the bigs. The Twins have enough back of the rotation arms so why not swing for the fences at 43?

Brodin4Calder
05-19-2013, 10:50 PM
It would be awesome but it isn't going to happen. The Astros are just doing their homework. The three teams that draft in front of the Twins need pitching just as bad, if not more than, the Twins. We have Gibson and Meyers who are better pitching prospects than anyone the cubs, Astros, or Rockies have. Once again, getting Gray or Appel would be great but it is a pipe dream.

CHC and COL have a couple nice pieces but none of them or us have good pitching right now. I know Appel or Gray wont fall to us but I wish one of them would. They are both close to being in the bigs already, but if we took Stewart hes several year away atleast. I still think we should take him because of his potential.

cmb0252
05-21-2013, 02:33 PM
Christopher Crawford released his 5th mock today and has the Twins taking Stewart. To see the full mock click below:

The Mock 2013: Volume V | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/05/the-mock-2013-volume-v/)

nicksaviking
05-21-2013, 02:41 PM
So, this is a poster's mock on Sickels' site after doing a long study of drafting trends of each front office:

Cookiedabookie's 2013 MLB Mock Draft - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/13/4328280/cookiedabookies-2013-mlb-mock-draft#comments)

His draft would have the Twins getting Gray and Windle, which would be a huge steal for the Twinkies!

I was going to accuse this guy of being an obvious Twins fan but it looks like most of his contributions on SB Nation involve the Yankees. So it's legitimate. Legitimately insane.

cmb0252
05-21-2013, 03:24 PM
I was going to accuse this guy of being an obvious Twins fan but it looks like most of his contributions on SB Nation involve the Yankees. So it's legitimate. Legitimately insane.

Haha, legitimately insane is a good description.

mike wants wins
05-21-2013, 03:27 PM
Christopher Crawford released his 5th mock today and has the Twins taking Stewart. To see the full mock click below:

The Mock 2013: Volume V | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/05/the-mock-2013-volume-v/)

Moran going right after the Twins? Are we off on him?

cmb0252
05-21-2013, 03:39 PM
Moran going right after the Twins? Are we off on him?

There have been a ton of Moran to Indians on mocks so maybe. What he lacks in pure power and defense he makes up for in hit tool and stupid crazy Bb/k ratios. Problem is, 3B needs power and at least passable defense.

diehardtwinsfan
05-21-2013, 06:45 PM
It would be awesome but it isn't going to happen. The Astros are just doing their homework. The three teams that draft in front of the Twins need pitching just as bad, if not more than, the Twins. We have Gibson and Meyers who are better pitching prospects than anyone the cubs, Astros, or Rockies have. Once again, getting Gray or Appel would be great but it is a pipe dream.

Honestly I think Stewart to Houston makes more sense than anything. Their new core is a bit further away than ours. Appel/Gray would be up in the bigs pitching well for some bad teams. That just wastes service time and by the time the core gets up and gets established, those guys are looking a couple more years of arb at best. Stewart would take a bit longer to develop, which works for them a bit better IMO.

The problem is that I still don't see Appel or Gray getting past Col and Chi... Col might might might take Bryant, but I have a tough time believing they wouldn't take the pitcher in that scenario.

jaspatrick
05-21-2013, 07:53 PM
It can be argued that Stewart, Gray, and Appel have similar ceilings, but Stewart, as a high school pitcher, comes with infinitely more risk. That's why a high school right hander has never gone #1 in the draft, but college pitchers routinely go #1, and that extra risk is why Appel and Gray will before Stewart this year.

kab21
05-21-2013, 08:46 PM
Honestly I think Stewart to Houston makes more sense than anything. Their new core is a bit further away than ours. Appel/Gray would be up in the bigs pitching well for some bad teams. That just wastes service time and by the time the core gets up and gets established, those guys are looking a couple more years of arb at best. Stewart would take a bit longer to develop, which works for them a bit better IMO.

The problem is that I still don't see Appel or Gray getting past Col and Chi... Col might might might take Bryant, but I have a tough time believing they wouldn't take the pitcher in that scenario.

It doesn't make sense at all nor is it really true. Aside from the 3 2012 draftees almost all of Houston's good prospects are starting at High A and could be in AA this year. Additionally it doesn't make sense to pass on superior talent unless there are substantial savings. Last year the Astros saved considerable money and got the guy that was probably #2 on their draft board. Stewart hasn't given any indication that he will be an easy sign and there's a significant drop from Appel/Gray to Stewart. The two college pitchers are very likely usable MLB starters at the very worst while Stewart might not even get out of AA.

InfraRen
05-21-2013, 09:34 PM
Frazier, Stewart, Meadows - as of today is probably my order of preference. Stewart would prolly be first if the whole signing issue wasn't such a dark cloud.

InfraRen
05-23-2013, 10:36 AM
New Jim Callis Mock coming today, will make sure to post when it hits.

cmb0252
05-23-2013, 03:34 PM
Bleacher report released a new mock draft a few days ago. Both of their experts have the Twins taking Stewart. Link below:

2013 MLB Mock Draft: Bleacher Report's 1st-Round Projection Battle | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1645725-2013-mlb-mock-draft-bleacher-reports-first-round-projection-battle)

InfraRen
05-23-2013, 04:15 PM
^ I like it. The Moran #1 dream is fun to dream about, but I doubt it actually happens. If so, I think Stewart is our guy. As long as we don't do the dumb McGuire thing...

InfraRen
05-24-2013, 08:43 AM
Jim Callis (Baseball America) Mock Draft 2.0 (Top 5)

Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea has gone from a potential No. 1 overall pick to the biggest question mark in the 2013 draft. After displaying an explosive mid-90s fastball in the Cape Cod League last summer, he has battled ankle and hip injuries and pitched at 88-93 mph for much of the spring.
Teams picking outside the top 10 initially didn’t spend a lot of time scouting Manaea because they figured they wouldn’t have a chance to select him. When his draft stock began to tip, those clubs had to scramble to evaluate him.
http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/sean-manaea-2013-300x211.jpg (http://www.baseballamerica.com/attachment/sean-manaea-2013/)
Sean Manaea
Scouts flocked to see Manaea pitch Tuesday morning in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder while warming up before the first inning. He left without throwing an official pitch, and whether he’ll take the mound again before the draft is in question. The Sycamores need a victory on Friday to reach the MVC tournament finals on Saturday, when Manaea conceivably could pitch. Indiana State won’t advance to the NCAA regional playoffs without winning their conference tourney.
The Boras Corp. is advising Manaea, so teams worry that his asking price could be higher than they believe his spring performance would merit. Add in the health questions, and there’s no telling where he might go in the draft. Manaea looked dominant in the Cape League but carries more risk than some clubs will be comfortable with in the first round. Scott Boras has cut several lucrative deals with the Nationals, but their first choice doesn’t come until the No. 62 overall pick and they have MLB’s smallest bonus pool for the first 10 rounds ($2,737,200).
There’s never enough college pitching available to sate clubs, and Manaea’s cloudy status is a blow in a year when the depth of first-round-caliber college arms is shallower than usual. The good news on that front is that two more likely first-rounders have emerged, with righthanders Alex Gonzalez (Oral Roberts) and Alex Balog (San Francisco) rising up draft boards.
Two weeks before the draft, here’s our forecast for the first round:
http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/HoustonAstros.png (http://www.baseballamerica.com/attachment/houstonastros/)1. HOUSTON ASTROS: Houston has narrowed its field to five: the top two college pitchers (Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray and Stanford’s Mark Appel), the top two college bats (San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran) and a fifth option, presumed to be Georgia high school outfielder Clint Frazier.
Rumors persist that the Astros might prefer to redistribute bonus-pool money by striking a deal with one of the hitters, and owner Jim Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow have been spotted scouting Moran. Most industry sources, however, continue to believe the choice will come down to Gray or Appel, whom Houston also considered with the No. 1 pick last year. They’re close enough in talent that asking price could be a deciding factor, though either will command significantly more than the $4.8 million Carlos Correa got as the top choice in 2013.
PROJECTED PICK: Jonathan Gray (Mock Draft 1.0: Mark Appel).
http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_cubs79.jpg (http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/cubs-organization-report-5191/attachment/3ds_cubs79/)2. CHICAGO CUBS: Chicago is looking at the same four college players that Houston is evaluating. The Cubs have an acute need for pitching and have had scouting eyes on Appel and Gray throughout the spring. It’s not clear whom they would prefer between Gray and Appel if the Astros opt for a hitter.
PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel (Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray).
http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_rockies85.jpg (http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/organization-report-cards-5336/attachment/3ds_rockies85/)3. COLORADO ROCKIES: Gray, Appel and Bryant are the consensus top three prospects in the draft, so the obvious move would be to take the guy Houston and Chicago leave on the board, even though the Rockies probably would prefer a pitcher in a perfect world. Colorado also could consider Moran.
PROJECTED PICK: Kris Bryant (Unchanged).
http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_twins81.jpg (http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/twins-organization-report-5286/attachment/3ds_twins81/)4. MINNESOTA TWINS: Unless one of the big three falls, pitching-needy Minnesota appears focused most on Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart. The Twins could save money with Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire, and Indiana high school lefty Trey Ball and Moran also are in the mix.
PROJECTED PICK: Kohl Stewart (Unchanged).
http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_indians83.jpg (http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/where-are-they-now-7872/attachment/3ds_indians83/)5. CLEVELAND INDIANS: Right now, the most credible top-five projection is that Cleveland will take Moran. If he goes in the top four, the Indians could turn to Nevada righthander Braden Shipley or Ball, or they could explore Georgia high school outfielders Frazier and Austin Meadows.
PROJECTED PICK: Colin Moran (Mock Draft 1.0: Braden Shipley).
Rest of the first round: Mock Draft 2.0: Shades Of Gray - BaseballAmerica.com (http://ht.ly/lmkBB)

kab21
05-24-2013, 08:55 PM
It's interesting that Trey Ball is also in the mix but Shipley isn't.

InfraRen
05-25-2013, 12:19 PM
It's interesting that Trey Ball is also in the mix but Shipley isn't.

New SBNation mock today has us taking him:


4) Minnesota Twins: Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada: The obvious choice here is Kohl Stewart. Big potential, elite arm, but when you just demoted your recently acquired opening day starter and people could start losing their jobs due to 90+ loss seasons in consecutive years, you opt for the quicker impact. Shipley is no slouch with his upper 90's velocity.


I'm not a big fan of the "need-now" reasoning, would rather go highest potential (Stewart) but I get it...

2013 MLB Mock Draft, Version 2.0 - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/25/4363264/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-2-0)

kab21
05-25-2013, 09:23 PM
Shipley is no slouch with his upper 90's velocity.

Perhaps you missed this. Shipley might not have the same ceiling but we're still talking about a high ceiling with less risk and he should be quicker to the majors. Of course Stewart could be on the Bundy/Fernandez timing. I still like Stewart but I could understand Shipley. Right now these are my #4 and #5 picks. Frazier is also a good choice but Shipley is close enough that the SP need trumps the fractional amount that I prefer Frazier as BPA.

The part that I found interesting about Ball/Shipley is that BA has significant contacts and could have some inside info. Matt Garrioch knows his stuff but for the most part he doesn't have the contacts. So I'm curious if the Twins are not in on Shipley.

gunnarthor
05-25-2013, 09:53 PM
I think last years draft shows the Twins will go BPA over need.

Pius Jefferson
05-25-2013, 11:45 PM
That might be one in the same or close enough they decide to draft a pitcher over an everyday player.

kab21
05-26-2013, 12:12 AM
I think last years draft shows the Twins will go BPA over need.

I strongly believe in BPA but I'm not sure any of the hitters (Bryant excluded) are better picks than either Stewart or Shipley. And in the end it's close enough that NEED trumps any argument that Frazier, Meadows or Moran are the BPA.

gunnarthor
05-26-2013, 06:55 AM
I strongly believe in BPA but I'm not sure any of the hitters (Bryant excluded) are better picks than either Stewart or Shipley. And in the end it's close enough that NEED trumps any argument that Frazier, Meadows or Moran are the BPA.
I agree. This is a pitching heavy draft so unless Bryant falls to them, I think they'll take a pitcher. But I think they'll take the pitcher highest on their board, regardless of whether or not he's a college guy or HS guy.

InfraRen
05-27-2013, 06:05 PM
New Kiley McDaniel mock from today. Also hits on Stewart/McGuire talkers (hope he's right):

Pick 4

RHP Kohl StewartSt. Pius X HS (TX)

Player: Kohl Stewart
Height: 6-3
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.66
Current Team: St. Pius X HS (TX)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R
Minnesota Twins

General Manager: Terry Ryan
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson
Draft Slot Amount: $4,544,400

ANALYSIS: This is another pick that the industry seems to think is a foregone conclusion if things shake out as I have them, but I gets antsy when a pick looks like a slam dunk this early. Reese McGuire is the hot rumor but one source indicated this week that he thinks the McGuire rumors are just misdirection to keep Stewart's price down. Stewart's dual-sport leverage as a QB recruit for Texas A&M could spike his price tag if he's confident he's a top-5 pick. Trey Ball's name has also come up but it would be very hard to justify taking him this high.

For the whole thing:

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1294726.html

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 06:48 PM
New Kiley McDaniel mock from today. Also hits on Stewart/McGuire talkers (hope he's right):

Pick 4

RHP Kohl StewartSt. Pius X HS (TX)

Player: Kohl Stewart
Height: 6-3
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.66
Current Team: St. Pius X HS (TX)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R
Minnesota Twins

General Manager: Terry Ryan
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson
Draft Slot Amount: $4,544,400

ANALYSIS: This is another pick that the industry seems to think is a foregone conclusion if things shake out as I have them, but I gets antsy when a pick looks like a slam dunk this early. Reese McGuire is the hot rumor but one source indicated this week that he thinks the McGuire rumors are just misdirection to keep Stewart's price down. Stewart's dual-sport leverage as a QB recruit for Texas A&M could spike his price tag if he's confident he's a top-5 pick. Trey Ball's name has also come up but it would be very hard to justify taking him this high.

For the whole thing:

Scout.com: MLB Mock Draft v2.0 (http://sbb.scout.com/2/1294726.html)

Thanks for the link. I have updated the main page. It seems every time I update a mock they have the Twins taking Stewart.

InfraRen
05-27-2013, 07:00 PM
No prob! Yeah, it does seem that way. McDaniel definitely makes it sound like that's the consensus league-wide. Fingers crossed. :)

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 07:07 PM
Over at SB Nation's Crawfish Boxes (Astros blog site) they put up their second mock draft. They have the Astros taking Appel at #1 but I found his explanation interesting.

Just to let everyone know how close this was for me between Appel and Kris Bryant, I had a full e-mail typed out explaining my reasoning for Bryant. I would be happy with both players. However, as the adage goes, you can never have too much pitching. Appel has three plus pitches, some of them plus plus, and can command them all. He's not a perfect prospect, but I do believe he's the best player right now for the Astros. He could both pitch in the big league rotation by this September and anchor the rotation for the next ten years; his big league readiness and upside is pretty hard to pass up. The pick for now if Appel, but if you ask me next week I could very well go with Bryant.

The author makes it very clear that he thinks the Astros might take Bryant which in the end still doesn't help the Twins get one of the big 2 arms. He has the Twins taking Stewart. Link below:
TCB 2013 MLB Mock Draft v2.0 - The Crawfish Boxes (http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/5/27/4366154/tcb-2013-mlb-mock-draft-v2-0)

CK
05-27-2013, 07:11 PM
Do the struggles of Hudson Boyd make anyone nervous about taking another prep pitcher in Stewart. I think he's obviously better than Boyd, draft position speaks for itself. But after seeing Boyd's line from today, I started thinking about the Twins' lack of success in this area. I prefer Stewart, I am just curious.

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 07:22 PM
Do the struggles of Hudson Boyd make anyone nervous about taking another prep pitcher in Stewart. I think he's obviously better than Boyd, draft position speaks for itself. But after seeing Boyd's line from today, I started thinking about the Twins' lack of success in this area. I prefer Stewart, I am just curious.

Personally the struggles of Boyd don't worry me in regards to Stewart at all. The fact Stewart is a HS pitcher worries me by itself. HS pitchers have the highest bust rate not only because of lack of development but injury. Saying that, to get an ace you have to get lucky ala Nationals or develop one yourself. Stewart definitely has the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

diehardtwinsfan
05-27-2013, 07:54 PM
Actually, I believe the highest bust rate goes to HS catchers if I'm not mistaken.

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 07:57 PM
Actually, I believe the highest bust rate goes to HS catchers if I'm not mistaken.

Sorry, I just meant position vs pitcher/ HS vs college. I was specifically talking about individual positions but you are right. HS catchers have a insanely low success rate.

kab21
05-27-2013, 08:04 PM
Do the struggles of Hudson Boyd make anyone nervous about taking another prep pitcher in Stewart. I think he's obviously better than Boyd, draft position speaks for itself. But after seeing Boyd's line from today, I started thinking about the Twins' lack of success in this area. I prefer Stewart, I am just curious.

You are talking about 2 completely different levels of prospects when you compare Boyd to Stewart. And you are also talking about a sample size of one.

I'm hesitant to take a HS pitcher this high but after the big 3 the Twins are left with a pair of good but not great HS OF'ers, an underrated college pitcher (Shipley), a solid but not great 3B man (Moran) and a HS catcher. At this point I will be disappointed with anyone other than Stewart or Shipley. Trey Ball is a latecomer to the discussion but he requires a lot more projection to become an above avg starter imo.

markos
05-27-2013, 08:13 PM
Personally the struggles of Boyd don't worry me in regards to Stewart at all. The fact Stewart is a HS pitcher worries me by itself. HS pitchers have the highest bust rate not only because of lack of development but injury. Saying that, to get an ace you have to get lucky ala Nationals or develop one yourself. Stewart definitely has the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

I know it is conventional wisdom that HS pitchers have high bust rates, but do you know when that research was done? I feel like the past decade has had very few high school busts (at least top-10 picks), and instead COLLEGE pitchers are riskier, possibly due to overuse by college coaches. The way pitchers are developed in the minors has changed dramatically in the past decade, and I think that high school pitchers are a safer commodity than they were in the past. I don't have any thorough data to back this up, but I'm curious what others think about this.

cmathewson
05-27-2013, 10:56 PM
I know it is conventional wisdom that HS pitchers have high bust rates, but do you know when that research was done? I feel like the past decade has had very few high school busts (at least top-10 picks), and instead COLLEGE pitchers are riskier, possibly due to overuse by college coaches. The way pitchers are developed in the minors has changed dramatically in the past decade, and I think that high school pitchers are a safer commodity than they were in the past. I don't have any thorough data to back this up, but I'm curious what others think about this.

All pitchers are riskier than position players. But the rewards are higher. With Menaea gone, the Twins will likely take Stewart (unless some idiot passes on one of the big three). Shipley is a possibility, but Stewart's upside is higher than any pitcher in this draft, any person after the big three. That is what the Twins focus on more than anything.

Oxtung
05-27-2013, 11:50 PM
Matt Garrioch looked at draft success rates from '87-'01, so that doesn't entirely answer your question, but he found that success rates of pitchers taken in the first round were pretty much the same for pitchers taken from HS and 4yr colleges.

He found that ~26% of college pitchers and ~23% of HS pitchers became occasional all-stars or better. Another ~4% of College pitchers and 9% of HS pitchers became solid regulars. You can check out more on his google docs page here:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2Iz MTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US

InfraRen
05-28-2013, 08:49 AM
^Interesting!

cmb0252
05-28-2013, 11:43 AM
Another mock draft from bleacher reports and this one also has the Twins taking Stewart at #4. Here is the link:

2013 MLB Mock Draft: Landing Spots for Top Pitchers in First Round | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1653351-2013-mlb-mock-draft-landing-spots-for-top-pitchers-in-first-round)

cmb0252
05-28-2013, 11:50 AM
Another mock note. A blogger at SB Nation put together a Consensus mock draft list where he took 5 of the top mockers and figured out who's name is linked where the most. Link below:

MLB 2013 draft: Consensus mock draft list - SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/5/28/4372526/mlb-2013-draft-consensus-mock-draft-list)

cmb0252
05-28-2013, 11:56 AM
Geeze, busy day for mockers. There is ANOTHER mock draft over at bleacher report but this one is one of those annoying ass slide shows..... They have the Twins taking Kohl Stewart, seems to be the popular pick, and here is what they have to say.


Picking fourth means the Minnesota Twins will likely miss out on the draft's top three prospects: Appel, Gray and Bryant.On the plus side, it frees them from the shackles of having to pick one of those players. From their spot, they could go in any number of directions.If they are seeking a seasoned hitter, UNC's Colin Moran will be there for the taking. If they prefer another high-upside player in the Byron Buxton mold, there's two waiting to be plucked in Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.More than likely, Minnesota will be going after the top available pitcher. Right now, it looks like they could have eyes for prep right-hander Kohl Stewart.Stewart is a pretty good consolation prize, offering mid-90s heat and arguably the best breaking ball in the draft. He is an exceptional athlete who has front-of-the-rotation stuff.On a related note, the Twins happen to lack a true ace.This is the perfect example of need meeting best available player.

Full link below:
2013 MLB Mock Draft: Best-Case Scenarios for All 30 Teams' First-Round Picks | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1651366-2013-mlb-mock-draft-best-case-scenarios-for-all-30-teams-first-round-picks)

InfraRen
05-28-2013, 12:27 PM
Geeze, busy day for mockers. There is ANOTHER mock draft over at bleacher report but this one is one of those annoying ass slide shows..... They have the Twins taking Kohl Stewart, seems to be the popular pick, and here is what they have to say.


Picking fourth means the Minnesota Twins will likely miss out on the draft's top three prospects: Appel, Gray and Bryant.On the plus side, it frees them from the shackles of having to pick one of those players. From their spot, they could go in any number of directions.If they are seeking a seasoned hitter, UNC's Colin Moran will be there for the taking. If they prefer another high-upside player in the Byron Buxton mold, there's two waiting to be plucked in Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.More than likely, Minnesota will be going after the top available pitcher. Right now, it looks like they could have eyes for prep right-hander Kohl Stewart.Stewart is a pretty good consolation prize, offering mid-90s heat and arguably the best breaking ball in the draft. He is an exceptional athlete who has front-of-the-rotation stuff.On a related note, the Twins happen to lack a true ace.This is the perfect example of need meeting best available player.

Full link below:
2013 MLB Mock Draft: Best-Case Scenarios for All 30 Teams' First-Round Picks | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1651366-2013-mlb-mock-draft-best-case-scenarios-for-all-30-teams-first-round-picks)


Pleeaaase. :go:

cmb0252
05-29-2013, 02:00 PM
Christopher Crawford released his new mock draft and has the Twins taking Stewart. Link below:

The Mock 2013: Volume VI | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/05/the-mock-volume-vi-2/)

cmb0252
05-30-2013, 11:08 AM
Keih Law's second mock is out and it is an interesting one. Moran #1 and the Twins taking Stewart over Gray.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9322119/houston-astros-take-colin-moran-mark-appel-second-mock-draft-2013-mlb-draft

cmb0252
05-30-2013, 06:13 PM
SI released their second mock draft today and it is....well just as interesting as it's first mock. Bryant going #1 to the Astros and the Twins taking Frazier at #4. Link below:

Mock Draft: Bryant, Gray, Appel still in running for top pick - MLB - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130530/mlb-mock-draft-2-0-kris-bryant-jonathan-gray-mark-appel-dave-perkin/)

SDTwinsFan
05-30-2013, 06:59 PM
At this point, I have no idea what to think about the player picked at #4. If Moran really goes #1, though, that makes things a little more fun.

Twins Twerp
05-30-2013, 07:32 PM
If gray is available...boner

Pitz
05-30-2013, 08:34 PM
Keih Law's second mock is out and it is an interesting one. Moran #1 and the Twins taking Stewart over Gray.


That seems crazy that the Twins would still take Stewart over Gray, but I think it also says a lot about how strongly Law feels about the Twins taking Stewart.

cmb0252
05-30-2013, 11:10 PM
That seems crazy that the Twins would still take Stewart over Gray, but I think it also says a lot about how strongly Law feels about the Twins taking Stewart.

It is a very interesting situation. I personal prefer Gray but wouldn't be upset if they actually went Stewart. I don't care if a guy is a HS pitcher or a college pitcher. If this ended up being the case I would support the scouts on their choice.

cmb0252
05-30-2013, 11:11 PM
If gray is available...boner

Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.

InfraRen
05-30-2013, 11:18 PM
Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.

AND if May can get his act together?! 3 starters spittin fire up on the mound? Unheard of! Round it off with Gibby and (insert name here) - cool!

cmb0252
05-31-2013, 12:17 AM
Two more updates. Today Mayo released his second mock draft and he too now has the Twins taking Stewart. Here is what he had to say:

"The Twins have liked Stewart's power right arm all along and will have a comfort level that they can sign him away from Texas A&M football before he commits."

Link below:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&content_id=48991342&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

(http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&content_id=48991342&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb)The second article isn't a mock but a study of 27 mocks (not including Mayo/Law's today). It shows the median, mode, worst, best, and average of the players taken in the top 10. Very interesting read. Link below:

85% Sports Mock Draft Value Board - A Different Approach - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/30/4380938/85-sports-mock-draft-value-board-a-different-approach)

John Bonnes
05-31-2013, 12:13 PM
I'm sorry, but if Gray is available, there is no way they take Stewart. Howeer, it is good to hear that the Twins are comfortable with Stewart's price tag.

BTW, is anyone else surprised that the Rockies seem fixated on adding a hitter if Appel or Gray are on the board when they pick? They could use pitching as much as anyone, I think.

DutchFarmer
05-31-2013, 12:27 PM
Food for thought...

Doing a quick check of accuracy of last years' final mocks. KLaw, SI, and Baseball America all had Appel going #1 with only KLaw seeming to have significant doubt about Houston going with him.

Just thought I'd throw that out there for everyone who thinks that the draft will go a certain way (i.e. some combo of Gray, Appel, Bryant going 1,2,3).

John Bonnes
05-31-2013, 12:39 PM
I'll add that I think Law's logic for the Astros going with Moran seems rock solid:


the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it. The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.79 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.


It seems odd, but the way this draft works with slots, etc, really seems to encourage the top teams to consider going for a player much less than slots like Houston did last year and might do this year. At least unless there is a clear-cut star like Harper or Strassburg.

Boy, would this be good news for the Twins. I'd be doing backflips. And I'm WAY too big to do backflips.

Carneal&Gordon
05-31-2013, 01:51 PM
I think Law is very dialed in and if his mock has the Twins taking Stewart over Gray if both are available, I think it's a strong indicator that very well may happen. It also means if Gray isn't available the Twins will still get their true target in Stewart.

cmb0252
05-31-2013, 02:27 PM
Bleacher Report had another mock today with this one rt throwing a change up. They have the Twins taking Frazier at #4.


The “five-tool player” label is used far too often when referring to MLB prospects, but Clint Frazier deserves the distinction.The 6’1”, 190-pound outfielder needs some time to grow—both physically and as a baseball player—but the Twins are known for that kind of development with their early round prospects. He may not be ready for the bigs in the next two years, but he’ll be a tremendous player when he is.

Article below:
2013 MLB Mock Draft: Latest Projections for Baseball's Best Prospects | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656980-2013-mlb-mock-draft-latest-projections-for-baseballs-best-prospects)

cmb0252
05-31-2013, 04:36 PM
BA released their third mock and once again they have the Twins taking Stewart. Here is what they had to say:

If Minnesota can’t get one of the big three, it will take Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart. If Stewart’s price tag scares the Twins—he’s a Texas A&M quarterback recruit, though I can’t see him turning down top-10-pick money—they could go in the other direction and save cash for later by taking a discount with Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire. Indiana high school lefty Trey Ball and Moran are two more fallback plans.

Mock Draft 3.0: Holding Pattern - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-3-0-holding-pattern/)

The Greatest Poster Alive
05-31-2013, 04:42 PM
Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.

I'd rather see that hypothetical rotation with one of the inevitable soft-tossers in between. I like a rotation that varies from power to control pitcher to mess with hitters timing.

maxisagod
05-31-2013, 07:06 PM
I'm sorry, but if Gray is available, there is no way they take Stewart...
I have a feeling the Twins board looks slightly different then the consensus. It's sounds like they like Reese McGuire 4-5 spots higher on the Twins rankings then most other public rankings. Moran has never been connected to the Twins, even though he's getting looked at by the Astros and the Cubs. I think there's a chance Stewart might be as high as #2 on their board. So the Gray vs Stewart choice might not be a slam dunk decision for the Twins as it would be for most of us.

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 08:49 AM
MLBInsider posted a new mock late last night: The Mock 2013: Volume VII | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/the-mock-2013-volume-vii/)

First 4:



No.1; Houston Astros


Name
Position
School
Slot


Jonathan Gray (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/jonathan-gray/)
RHP
Oklahoma
$7.7904M


This selection is still very much in the air; and it likely will be all the way up until draft day. Colin Moran is very much in play, and Kris Bryant is still being discussed. At the end of the day though, I still think Houston takes Gray, but absolutely nothing would surprise me at this point.




No.2; Chicago Cubs


Name
Position
School
Slot


Mark Appel (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/mark-appel)
RHP
Stanford
$6.7084M


All spring long, we have heard that Chicago had narrowed their options to Appel and Gray, with the Cubs selecting whichever right-hander the Astros passed on. I still think that’s the likely scenario, with the only possible caveat being that Appel prices himself out of the Windy City. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and if the Cubs are lucky enough to get Appel they’ll have a guy who can compete for a spot in their rotation as soon as next year.




No.3; Colorado Rockies


Name
Position
School
Slot


Kris Bryant (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/kris-bryant/)
3B/RF
San Diego
$5.6264M


The Rockies have been attached to bats all spring, but if Appel or Gray were to fall into their laps I think they’d jump all over it. Bryant is the best hitter in this class, so this would be a very nice selection for the Rockies. I’ve also heard Austin Meadows, Moran and Dominic Smith as possibilities here.




No.4; Minnesota Twins


Name
Position
School
Slot


Kohl Stewart (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/kohl-stewart/)
RHP
St. Pius X High School (Tex.)
$4.5444M


I think Stewart is — and should be — the selection, but I’m not as confident about this as I was a few weeks ago. The Twins are still very much considering Reese McGuire with the fourth pick, and I think they would consider Kris Bryant if he fell to this spot. Minnesota also would likely snag Gray if he were to fall to this point.

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 09:13 AM
https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/2580093243/80fbc677-61b4-4f89-9040-83b28a7d923e_normal.pngJim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA (https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA)1m (https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/341557594030235649)
Four of us @baseballAmerica (https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica) editors took turns making 1st-rd picks for each club. Here's how it turned out: http://ht.ly/lEuW5 (http://t.co/8uKTil4iVr) #mlbdraft (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mlbdraft&src=hash)


Editors Make Calls In BA Experts Draft

June 3, 2013 by Staff Report (http://www.baseballamerica.com/author/staffreport/)

With the draft coming up on Thursday, we wanted to take yet another look at how the first round might unfold, this time if four of our draft experts were making the picks. This isn’t our projection of how the first round will play out, but rather who editor John Manuel, executive editor Jim Callis and assistant editors Conor Glassey and Nathan Rode would take with picks 1-33. After the order of rotation was selected from the Baseball America candy bowl/random draft order generator, the four experts alternated choices, balancing their own preferences with each club’s needs and financial situation. Rode won the right to lead things off:

1. ASTROS (Nathan): There’s a certain level of pressure that comes with the first pick and despite the overall feeling that this is a down year in the draft, there are plenty of very good options at the top. I’m a big fan of the high school outfielders in Georgia—Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows—but I can’t pull the trigger on one of them over the college options here. I’m taking Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray. I like the size and stuff, with the fastball life being the ever-so-slight separator between him and Stanford righty Mark Appel. It would be fun to see San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant’s power in Minute Maid Park, but you can never have enough pitching. I don’t expect a Carlos Correa discount on Gray, but think I could get enough to give me some wiggle room on later picks: JONATHAN GRAY.

2. CUBS (Jim). You’re not going to draft for need at the top, but the Cubs’ biggest need dovetails nicely with the elite prospects in this year’s draft. They need pitching and there are two obvious frontline starters in this crop. I’m mildly tempted by Bryant, but the choice comes down to Gray and Appel, and the Astros have made it easy here by taking Gray off the board. I like Gray a little more because I think his stuff is more electric when he and Appel are at their best, but I’m happy with Appel at No. 2. He has more polish, a deeper repertoire and a longer track record, and he has dominated this season like scouts always hoped he would: MARK APPEL.

3. ROCKIES (Conor). If the first two picks off the board are the two power pitchers, the third pick becomes a slam dunk, in my opinion. Bryant has the best usable power in the draft and hit 31 home runs this season, the most in the college BBCOR era. He’s cut down on his strikeouts and can hit the ball out to all fields. While he has the athleticism to handle third base, I would stick him in right field and let him mash his way to the middle of the Rockies’ lineup. He has the potential to be their best power hitter since Matt Holliday: KRIS BRYANT.

4: TWINS (John). It’s my fate to have the fourth pick in a three-player draft. So be it; I’m not going off the board with this pick. Texas prep righthander Kohl Stewart is out of the region I report on, but that hasn’t stopped the buzz from spilling over to scouts and crosscheckers I’ve talked to. The consensus seems to be that Stewart has similar stuff to Appel and Gray with a bit more athleticism, and he seems to have dispelled some early reports of shaky makeup. The Twins need power arms, and Stewart gives them one: KOHL STEWART.

For the rest:
Editors Make Calls In BA Experts Draft - BaseballAmerica.com (http://ht.ly/lEuW5)

Oldgoat_MN
06-03-2013, 10:15 AM
Reading other posts here on TD it appears that many of the very best pitchers were drafted as HS prospects. Also that the rate of success (which is poor, overall) is really no better for a college arm than a HS arm.

I am all for Stewart. A 3 player draft?
His is the arm that could make that line untrue.

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 11:15 AM
Keith Law 3.0 Mock just posted, anyone have Insider?

Prep right-hander Phil Bickford jumps into top 10 in latest mock draft - MLB Draft - ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9336570/prep-right-hander-phil-bickford-jumps-top-10-latest-mock-draft-mlb-draft)

jaspatrick
06-03-2013, 11:43 AM
Keith Law 3.0 Mock just posted, anyone have Insider?

Prep right-hander Phil Bickford jumps into top 10 in latest mock draft - MLB Draft - ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9336570/prep-right-hander-phil-bickford-jumps-top-10-latest-mock-draft-mlb-draft)

He has the top four as Moran, Appel, Bryant, and us taking Gray. He says if the big 3 are gone when we pick, it'll be Stewart or McGuire. With us passing on Stewart, he has him falling all the way to 15.

markos
06-03-2013, 11:56 AM
In Law's mock draft, two other high school pitchers (Phil Bickford #8 and Trey Ball #10) selected before Stewart. I'm not sure if this is a significant adjustment in Law's opinion of Stewart, or just a quirk of a mock draft with the Twins able to select Gray.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 11:58 AM
In Law's mock draft, two other high school pitchers (Phil Bickford #8 and Trey Ball #10) selected before Stewart. I'm not sure if this is a significant adjustment in Law's opinion of Stewart, or just a quirk of a mock draft with the Twins able to select Gray.

I found Stewart falling so far very odd.

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 11:58 AM
In Law's mock draft, two other high school pitchers (Phil Bickford #8 and Trey Ball #10) selected before Stewart. I'm not sure if this is a significant adjustment in Law's opinion of Stewart, or just a quirk of a mock draft with the Twins able to select Gray.
Probably the latter - could also have to do with the further he slides, the less likely he is to sign.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 12:01 PM
Law, BA, and CC putting out mocks today. Busy draft day! Hopefully we get some more because I getting excited about the draft. So close!

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 12:20 PM
Law, BA, and CC putting out mocks today. Busy draft day! Hopefully we get some more because I getting excited about the draft. So close!
Rumors runnin rampant! Only gonna get crazier over next 3 days. :jump:

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 12:32 PM
Rumors runnin rampant! Only gonna get crazier over next 3 days. :jump:

And I'm OK with that.

There has been so much more draft discussion on the forums this year and it has been great. Hopefully we can keep up all the great discussion till draft day. Everyone has done a great job getting information out be it via tweeter, inside sources, or just using the inter web.

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 12:34 PM
^Agree, this has been great! Keep it comin boys.

CK
06-03-2013, 12:43 PM
Yeah, Bickford has really been picking up steam the past few days. Anyone heard why? Or has anyone researched him? The Royals taking him over some of the other possible arms would be just like them.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 12:58 PM
Yeah, Bickford has really been picking up steam the past few days. Anyone heard why? Or has anyone researched him? The Royals taking him over some of the other possible arms would be just like them.

From Law on the pick:

"Bickford throws hard, and there's a good chance he'll hit 100 mph at some point in the future, but he has a below-average breaking ball right now. If one of the college right-handers gets here, that would change the pick, but there's a strong industry sentiment as of Sunday night that Bickford -- who is getting a lot of attention after striking out 17 straight batters Saturday -- goes here."

Here is BA's take. They have him at 26.
I thought about Bickford at 18 and almost took him at 22, so I’m not passing him up at 26. His 90-96 mph fastball has tons of life, and along with his tall, lean frame earns him comparisons to Jered Weaver. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he goes about 10 picks higher than this on June

He is very signable and might actually go under slot if he goes in the top 10.

amjgt
06-03-2013, 01:09 PM
Kohl Stewart (and Sean Manaea to a lesser extent) is the Grand Prize if the Astros take Colin Moran 1st overall. The further he drops past the Twins, the more likely he is to freefall as his signability comes into significant question.

But, if the 'Stros take Moran and give him 4mil, they would have about 4mil to overslot Stewart if he slides to Rd 2.

Scenarios like this are why we hear "the Astros aren't going to make a decision until Thursday morning." Logically, they've been scouting these guys for at least a year (probably longer) so why are still waivering?..... It's because they want to gather as much intel as possible on possible over-slot candidates before coming to a decision on whether the risk is worth the reward.

markos
06-03-2013, 01:57 PM
Kohl Stewart (and Sean Manaea to a lesser extent) is the Grand Prize if the Astros take Colin Moran 1st overall. The further he drops past the Twins, the more likely he is to freefall as his signability comes into significant question.

But, if the 'Stros take Moran and give him 4mil, they would have about 4mil to overslot Stewart if he slides to Rd 2.

Scenarios like this are why we hear "the Astros aren't going to make a decision until Thursday morning." Logically, they've been scouting these guys for at least a year (probably longer) so why are still waivering?..... It's because they want to gather as much intel as possible on possible over-slot candidates before coming to a decision on whether the risk is worth the reward.

I agree 100%. Floating the Moran rumor is just shaking the tree, and now they are seeing what drops. I'm fairly confident the Twins tried this as well with their McGuire rumor. The McGuire rumor allowed teams to figure out who might be available if there is an extra $1-2 million or so available. The Moran rumor raises it to $4 million.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 02:03 PM
I agree 100%. Floating the Moran rumor is just shaking the tree, and now they are seeing what drops. I'm fairly confident the Twins tried this as well with their McGuire rumor. The McGuire rumor allowed teams to figure out who might be available if there is an extra $1-2 million or so available. The Moran rumor raises it to $4 million.

I think you nailed it.

Carneal&Gordon
06-03-2013, 05:17 PM
The 2014 #1 QB recruit Kyle Allen surprised everyone today and with no deadline just announced on Twitter that he has committed to play at Texas A & M.Interesting timing with Kohl Stewart and his advisors attempts at leverage and such.May not have an impact but everything does just 3 days before the draft.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 06:20 PM
The 2014 #1 QB recruit Kyle Allen surprised everyone today and with no deadline just announced on Twitter that he has committed to play at Texas A & M.Interesting timing with Kohl Stewart and his advisors attempts at leverage and such.May not have an impact but everything does just 3 days before the draft.

Most experts said Stewart wouldn't turn down first round money to hold a clip board behind Johnny M. Now this. I see no way he doesn't sign now.

Red Bull
06-03-2013, 10:21 PM
Most experts said Stewart wouldn't turn down first round money to hold a clip board behind Johnny M. Now this. I see no way he doesn't sign now.

Exactly, I think he would of signed no matter what but he was playing the "Im going to play Football" angle to get some leverage in the negotiations. All this did was give him less leverage. Maybe the school was mad because they knew he wasnt gonna attend so they got back at him by announcing this several days before the draft?

Twins Daily Admin
06-04-2013, 10:02 AM
The timing of this is weird, to say the least. Maybe Allen just really doesn't like Stewart?

Yesterday was a pretty crummy day for Stewart. First, Keith Law goes upstream of previous reports and says Stewart could fall as #18 if he's not taken at #4. Then this, which surely decreases Stewart's leverage.

With both of those scenarios, it could be that if the Twins draft Stewart with #4, he signs for less than slot, leaving them some extra money for the next couple of rounds.

70charger
06-04-2013, 10:03 AM
Exactly, I think he would of signed no matter what but he was playing the "Im going to play Football" angle to get some leverage in the negotiations. All this did was give him less leverage. Maybe the school was mad because they knew he wasnt gonna attend so they got back at him by announcing this several days before the draft?

Or maybe the QB that committed wanted to undercut his possible competition. Sounds more likely than the school retaliating against a potential player who hasn't decommitted yet.

Oxtung
06-04-2013, 10:14 AM
Wow the conspiracy theories are flying! I think it's most likely the QB commit waited until he finished his junior year then spent a few days figuring out what he wanted to do with his future. He probably just didn't want this hanging over his head during his senior year. College football recruiting is incredibly time consuming and invasive. There are kids who just want to get it over with. My guess he doesn't really care what Stewart does.

I also don't really buy this lowering Stewart's leverage. He still has a scholarship. He can still make the choice to go to college. Nothing has changed.

joeboo_22
06-04-2013, 10:17 AM
With the #1 recruit I don't think Texas A&M is doing this to throw Stewart under the bus by any means. Every football team is trying to get the #1 QB recruit in that class every year. It does hurt Stewart though, probably quite a bit, he goes from having solid leverage to little.

InfraRen
06-05-2013, 10:33 AM
Chris Crawford's last mock just posted:

The Penultimate Mock | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/the-penultimate-mock/)

Einstein
06-05-2013, 06:20 PM
The Sporting New projects Kris Bryant to the Twins. I could live with that.

MLB mock draft: Astros go economical route again with Heels' Moran - MLB - Sporting News (http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2013-06-03/mlb-draft-2013-mock-draft-prospects-picks-astros-appel-gray-moran)

Twins Daily Admin
06-05-2013, 10:07 PM
Guys, I'm going to ask we continue talk about mocks and rumors from here on at our Official Day 1 Draft Thread (http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/7047-official-day-1-draft-thread.html). Rejoice! It's here!

http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/7047-official-day-1-draft-thread.html