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Brock Beauchamp
05-01-2013, 07:41 AM
Well, the Twins didn't manage to finish April with a .500 record...

Lineups:

Twins:
Dozier 2B
Carroll 3B
Willingham DH
Morneau 1B
Doumit C
Parmelee RF
Arcia LF
Hicks CF
Florimon SS
Diamond P

Tigers:
Jackson CF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Tuiasosopo LF
Peralta SS
Pena C
Santiago 2B
Sanchez P

Chance
05-01-2013, 12:01 PM
TWINS
Dozier 2B
Carroll 3B
Willingham DH
Morneau 1B
Doumit C
Parmelee RF
Arcia LF
Hicks CF
Florimon SS
Diamond P
TIGERS
Jackson CF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Tuiasosopo LF
Peralta SS
Pena C
Santiago 2B
Sanchez P

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:02 PM
It might be a quiet one today.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:08 PM
1st inning runs would be nice. In the top half, I mean.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:10 PM
Decent AB from Dozier, right up until he K'd on ball four.

edavis0308
05-01-2013, 12:11 PM
Lineups like this inexplicably put up 6-8 runs, further egging on Gardy's afternoon-game-after-a-night-game lineups.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:12 PM
Decent AB from Carroll, right up until he K'd on ball four.

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:12 PM
I try to be optimistic, but my hope for this series really plummeted when Pelfrey came out for the 6th. Verlander was expected. Now two strikeouts to start the game. I'm kind of scared to watch today.

edavis0308
05-01-2013, 12:13 PM
Fun fact. Only one person in today's lineup has an AVG over .255.

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:13 PM
afternoon-game-after-a-night-game lineups.

That's a mouthful.

Top Gun
05-01-2013, 12:14 PM
can't you get it up anymore?

edavis0308
05-01-2013, 12:15 PM
That's a mouthful.

We could go with getaway day lineup, but what fun is that.

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:16 PM
Holy Crap! Now I'm totally sucked in. 1-0 Twins, Morneau on second w/ two outs. 24 pitches already for Sanchez. That whole swinging-at-ball-four thing must have worked...somehow.

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:17 PM
Bad start turned into a good start. A boatload of pitches thrown as well.

Brock Beauchamp
05-01-2013, 12:17 PM
Hey, a run.

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:19 PM
Dough-mitt walks. Now time for a Parmelee bomb. Sanchez at 32 pitches.

- ok, I'll settle for the RBI-producing single with the runners moving to 2nd/3rd.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:22 PM
Hey, a run.
runs

Brock Beauchamp
05-01-2013, 12:23 PM
Nice! Running up Sanchez's pitch count.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/300deac66fd666660664d197e6f2cd07/tumblr_mh798wucTV1s47xv9o1_500.jpg

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:23 PM
And Sanchez gets out of it, 2 runs scored and 40 pitches thrown.

edavis0308
05-01-2013, 12:23 PM
Lineups like this inexplicably put up 6-8 runs, further egging on Gardy's afternoon-game-after-a-night-game lineups.

I told you all so. See right here? You were all wrong and I was right. I will continue with the unwarranted self back patting now.

/ridiculous statement.

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:24 PM
Did anyone hear Gladden try to pronounce Tuiasosopo when he read the lineups? That paid for my MLB subscription right there.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:25 PM
One more big hit would've been nice, but can't complain too much about 2 runs after 2 out nobody on to start.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:27 PM
All right Diamond, now toss a gem. :cool:

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:30 PM
Gladden says no way that pitch hit Cabrera. Anyone with TV confirm or deny?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:31 PM
0-2 HBP. Better'n an 0-2 hit, I suppose.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:31 PM
Gladden says no way that pitch hit Cabrera. Anyone with TV confirm or deny?Not 100 percent conclusive on replay, but looked to me like it got him on the toe.

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:32 PM
Gladden says no way that pitch hit Cabrera. Anyone with TV confirm or deny?

DickRon thought that too, then the replay showed it hit him.

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:32 PM
0-2 HBP. Better'n an 0-2 hit, I suppose.

Still a hit.


:p

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:33 PM
No hitter intact.

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:34 PM
Diamond really bore-down and gutted that inning out, what a gamer, that's what stoppers do.




cliche count: 4

adjacent
05-01-2013, 12:34 PM
I am just following Gameday. Is the strike zone as inconsistent as it shows here?

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:36 PM
Thanks. The replay did not persuade Gladden to change his mind.

A decent inning by Diamond, all in and done.

denarded
05-01-2013, 12:36 PM
I was listening to detroit broadcast and they both agreed cabrerra wasn't hit.

Riverbrian
05-01-2013, 12:36 PM
Good first inning... I Approve

jctwins
05-01-2013, 12:37 PM
I am just following Gameday. Is the strike zone as inconsistent as it shows here?

Doesn't someone post this in every game thread? I'd take that an indication that the answer is "no"

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:38 PM
I am just following Gameday. Is the strike zone as inconsistent as it shows here?I haven't seen any B/S calls that have looked outrageous yet. Ball 4 to Fielder was close, but I thought it was outside.

Riverbrian
05-01-2013, 12:42 PM
Nice... For an old guy

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:42 PM
A Jamey Carroll XBH. It's definitely our day.

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:43 PM
Another RBI double, by Carroll. Let's hear it for the getaway-afternoon-game-after-a-night-game-getting-out-of-town-soon-and-resting-the-regulars lineup!

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:44 PM
Diamond really bore-down and gutted that inning out, what a gamer, that's what stoppers do.




cliche count: 4 If you just stay within yourself, don't try to do too much, do the little things, keep after it, and take it one post at a time, I bet you can get that cliché count up.

big dog
05-01-2013, 12:45 PM
Sanchez out of the second, throwing only 59 pitches so far.

snepp
05-01-2013, 12:46 PM
If you just stay within yourself, don't try to do too much, do the little things, keep after it, and take it one post at a time, I bet you can get that cliché count up.

3964

I'm not worthy.

Riverbrian
05-01-2013, 12:46 PM
If you just stay within yourself, don't try to do too much, do the little things, keep after it, and take it one post at a time, I bet you can get that cliché count up.

With the cliche count in effect. How many Cliches before Gardy pulls Diamond?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:52 PM
With the cliche count in effect. How many Cliches before Gardy pulls Diamond? I hope just one: "You've given us 8 good innings, Scotty, the BP can finish this one up ferya."

Riverbrian
05-01-2013, 12:53 PM
Number Fun... With April in the books... Eduardo Escobar has more Home Run than:

Victor Martinez, Allan Craig, Jedd Gyorko and Eric Hosmer combined.

I know this because V-Mart, Craig, Gyorko and Hosmer are all on my fantasy team.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 12:53 PM
*yawn* Just woke up. Before I start work today, I'll check on the... holy smokes, they're playing, and the Twins are up 3-0 already? Hope I don't jinx anything by posting.

James
05-01-2013, 12:56 PM
*yawn* Just woke up. Before I start work today, I'll check on the... holy smokes, they're playing, and the Twins are up 3-0 already? Hope I don't jinx anything by posting.
You best not have, or you will receive a pm filled with expletives.

Riverbrian
05-01-2013, 12:59 PM
*yawn* Just woke up. Before I start work today, I'll check on the... holy smokes, they're playing, and the Twins are up 3-0 already? Hope I don't jinx anything by posting.

Must be nice living in American Somoa.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 12:59 PM
You best not have, or you will receive a pm filled with expletives. Oh he'll receive something all right, but it won't be a pm.

Riverbrian
05-01-2013, 01:00 PM
LOL... Doumit with a stolen base. You don't get to type that very often.

snepp
05-01-2013, 01:02 PM
Oh he'll receive something all right, but it won't be a pm.

Will it be non-refundable, and to the chin?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:03 PM
Will it be non-refundable, and to the chin? You win the internets.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:04 PM
LOL... Doumit with a stolen base. You don't get to type that very often.

If it's stupid, and it works, then it's not stupid.

James
05-01-2013, 01:04 PM
LOL... Doumit with a stolen base. You don't get to type that very often.
First time he's stole a base since 2010. He now has 11 for his MLB career.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:05 PM
Totally off topic: NYY placed Kevin Youkilis on the DL with a "sprained spine." Eeeewwwww.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:06 PM
If it's stupid, and it works, then it's not stupid. I'm not calling the poster stupid, but that's just stupid.

James
05-01-2013, 01:06 PM
Oh he'll receive something all right, but it won't be a pm.
I would threaten to track him down and threaten him with something else, but that seems like a lot of work and I'm feeling fairly lazy today.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:07 PM
Only 16 pitches for Anibal that inning. At this rate he might still go 5. Twins need to put a stop to that.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:08 PM
I'm not calling the poster stupid, but that's just stupid.

Works for me.

snepp
05-01-2013, 01:08 PM
I'm not calling the poster stupid, but that's just stupid.

I would have moderated him to no end, but I was too busy staring at his avatar.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:09 PM
I would threaten to track him down and threaten him with something else, but that seems like a lot of work and I'm feeling fairly lazy today. I understand he's in American Somoa.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:09 PM
Totally off topic: NYY placed Kevin Youkilis on the DL with a "sprained spine." Eeeewwwww.

National Lampoon had a sports issue one time in which a player was listed on the DL as having a sprained body, or perhaps it was ruptured body, I forget which.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:10 PM
I would have moderated him to no end, but I was too busy staring at his avatar. pfft. Not in the same league as the pole vaulter. Or the, uh, backwards stretcher for that matter.

big dog
05-01-2013, 01:11 PM
Yeah, that avatar really...wait, what was I saying?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:15 PM
Mod question: What is the "share" thing in the bottom right corner?

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:16 PM
Yeah, that avatar really...wait, what was I saying?

You were saying you would send $200 to the address given in my blog....

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:16 PM
Mod question: What is the "share" thing in the bottom right corner?

Not a mod, but: It's for people who use the Internet. You can just skip it.

James
05-01-2013, 01:20 PM
I understand he's in American Somoa.
Yeah... tracking him down still seems like a lot of effort.

snepp
05-01-2013, 01:21 PM
Mod question: What is the "share" thing in the bottom right corner?

Correction: "Admin question."


Buck, passed.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:21 PM
Not a mod, but: It's for people who use the Internet. You can just skip it. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you're having some fun at my expense. Well, fine. GET OFF MY LAWN!

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 01:22 PM
If you just stay within yourself, don't try to do too much, do the little things, keep after it, and take it one post at a time, I bet you can get that cliché count up.

Is there some contest I wasn't informed about? The one who dies with the most posts wins?

John Bonnes
05-01-2013, 01:24 PM
4 IP and a goose egg in that 2nd column for the Tigers. Pretty nice start for Diamond.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 01:28 PM
If you just stay within yourself, don't try to do too much, do the little things, keep after it, and take it one post at a time, I bet you can get that cliché count up.

I'd liked your post even though you neglected to mention anything about "pickin' it or getting after it".

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:29 PM
Is there some contest I wasn't informed about? The one who dies with the most posts wins? Close. The one who dies with the most "likes" wins. I got 4 for that post.

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 01:31 PM
Close. The one who dies with the most "likes" wins. I got 4 for that post.

There you go.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 01:32 PM
Mod question: What is the "share" thing in the bottom right corner?

Whatever you do, don't click on it.

snepp
05-01-2013, 01:32 PM
Close. The one who dies with the most "likes" wins. I got 4 for that post.

I'm "winning."

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 01:32 PM
Help needed...on the verge of schizophrenia...passionate about Twins...have Sanchez on fantasy team...help needed...

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:36 PM
You can cancel the post game press conference.

James
05-01-2013, 01:36 PM
Help needed...on the verge of schizophrenia...passionate about Twins...have Sanchez on fantasy team...help needed...
The Twins come first. Fantasy baseball second.

stringer bell
05-01-2013, 01:38 PM
I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you're having some fun at my expense. Well, fine. GET OFF MY LAWN!Either bran or oatmeal will help a lot, Chief.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:38 PM
Close. The one who dies with the most "likes" wins. I got 4 for that post.

So you have to die to win? Then here's rooting for an early win for you, Chief.

/ I keed, I keed

snepp
05-01-2013, 01:40 PM
I take it back, largebrea....errr, john is winning.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:40 PM
and a goose egg in that 2nd column

And here I was worried that *I* would jinx things by showing up and posting during that good streak of innings.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:42 PM
I take it back, largebrea....errr, john is winning.

Whoever clicks Like for me the most times this game gets a date with the Avatar girl.

/ air fare to American Samoa not included

GCTF
05-01-2013, 01:43 PM
Sanchez bearing down like it's nobody's bidness.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 01:44 PM
/ air fare to American Samoa not included

So I have to walk?

GCTF
05-01-2013, 01:45 PM
See how it's done Pelf?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:46 PM
Sanchez bearing down like it's nobody's bidness. Yeah, he's really reaching that balance point, getting that good downward plane, gettin' ahead of the hitters, using both sides of the plate, and keepin' his fielders on their toes.

James
05-01-2013, 01:49 PM
Yeah, he's really reaching that balance point, getting that good downward plane, gettin' ahead of the hitters, using both sides of the plate, and keepin' his fielders on their toes.
The ball was definitely coming out of his hands pretty good.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:51 PM
Sanchez bearing down like it's nobody's bidness.

Apparently you don't have to be 30+ years old to earn the right to throw > 100 pitches in a game, in some corners of the league.

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 01:53 PM
How quickly the wheels can come off...

GCTF
05-01-2013, 01:53 PM
Yeah, he's really reaching that balance point, getting that good downward plane, gettin' ahead of the hitters, using both sides of the plate, and keepin' his fielders on their toes.

Yup, him pitch ball good.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 01:53 PM
Either bran or oatmeal will help a lot, Chief. Spread it on the lawn then? The oatmeal, I mean.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 01:57 PM
Spread it on the lawn then? The oatmeal, I mean.

After some processing, sure; knock yourself out.

/ obGame: c'mon Scottie, bear down

snepp
05-01-2013, 01:57 PM
Buckling down, complete.

Riverbrian
05-01-2013, 01:59 PM
Is there some contest I wasn't informed about? The one who dies with the most posts wins?

I thought everyone knew

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:00 PM
So what's the call...Diamond back out for the bottom of the 7th?

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:00 PM
The game will be delayed for a few minutes while Prince lumbers back to first.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:01 PM
So what's the call...Diamond back out for the bottom of the 7th?

Bottom of the order due up, so yes. Short leash.

James
05-01-2013, 02:01 PM
Hicksie with his first triple!

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:02 PM
So what's the call...Diamond back out for the bottom of the 7th?

That depends, what's the cliche-o'-the-day?

SweetOne69
05-01-2013, 02:02 PM
So what's the call...Diamond back out for the bottom of the 7th?

No.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:03 PM
Hicksie's SLG may hit .200 yet.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:03 PM
So what's the call...Diamond back out for the bottom of the 7th?

I'm not going to kick, whichever way Gardy chooses. Depends on whether he wants his bullpen to get a little work in, versus having his starter try to go 7. Can accomplish both by sending him out but with a one-baserunner leash and the bullpen firing on all cylinders right away.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:03 PM
Bottom of the order due up, so yes. Short leash. I agree, by a 51-49 margin.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:04 PM
I agree, by a 51-49 margin.

Concur.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:05 PM
Hicksie's SLG may hit .200 yet.

And I see that his BA now exceeds one of the Tigers' in the lineup, albeit a little-used infielder whose average could jump with one hit.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:06 PM
I would have been OK with a sacrifice there from Dozier. In general, I don't like wasting outs, but moving Floor-E-Moan over to 3rd, up 2 runs, seems like it would have been a good use of an out.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:09 PM
That depends, what's the cliche-o'-the-day?

If USAFBert doesn't know, who does?

LaBombo
05-01-2013, 02:10 PM
So what's the call...Diamond back out for the bottom of the 7th?
Would have said yes before I was reminded what an offensive juggernaut the bottom of the twins lineup is. Diamond will sit too long in the visitor half of the inning to come out for the 7th.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:11 PM
I would have been OK with a sacrifice there from Dozier. In general, I don't like wasting outs, but moving Floor-E-Moan over to 3rd, up 2 runs, seems like it would have been a good use of an out.

It'll be moot once Morneausie hits the granny.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:11 PM
I would have been OK with a sacrifice there from Dozier. In general, I don't like wasting outs, but moving Floor-E-Moan over to 3rd, up 2 runs, seems like it would have been a good use of an out.

Late innings are when you know with more confidence the value of a single run. Given that another run was already in, it's a close decision to me, but a bunt would be defensible strategy.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:13 PM
Would have said yes before I was reminded what an offensive juggernaut the bottom of the twins lineup is. Diamond will sit too long in the visitor half of the inning to come out for the 7th.

It won't matter how long he'll have sat as long as gives 110%

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 02:13 PM
I would have been OK with a sacrifice there from Dozier. In general, I don't like wasting outs, but moving Floor-E-Moan over to 3rd, up 2 runs, seems like it would have been a good use of an out.

In the spirit of a recently posted article, would that have improved the win probability?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:14 PM
It'll be moot once Morneausie hits the granny. Why is Morneausie going to hit my wife?

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:15 PM
It'll be moot once Morneausie hits the granny.

What did she ever do to him?

LaBombo
05-01-2013, 02:15 PM
It'll be moot once Morneausie hits the granny.
Micro granny works too.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:15 PM
Why is Morneausie going to hit my wife?

You wouldn't let him play on your lawn?

Fatt Crapps
05-01-2013, 02:17 PM
Dick: "Follows up a deuce with a deuce"

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:17 PM
In the spirit of a recently posted article, would that have improved the win probability?

That's actually some information I'd want to have at hand, for a more serious second look. However, those are just averages, and not taking into account that this is the 2-3-4 part of the lineup, and also not taking into account that Carroll is subbing today in the 2 hole and Morneau will be facing a lefty...

James
05-01-2013, 02:18 PM
Micro granny works too.
Wait, Morneausie is going to hit a little person now?

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:18 PM
What did she ever do to him?

She knows what she did.

Aaron Cross
05-01-2013, 02:18 PM
2 runs out of all of that? Twins baseball at its finest.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:21 PM
Dick: "Follows up a deuce with a deuce"

I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:21 PM
2 runs out of all of that? Twins baseball at its finest.

Bullpen ought to be able to hold a three run lead for three innings; but yes, let's hope there's no reason to look back at that inning.

edavis0308
05-01-2013, 02:22 PM
Diamond out after 88 pitches? Is this a situation where we are turning 7-8-9 to the pen or was he running out of gas?

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:22 PM
I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done.

Just drop it. :whacky028:

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:22 PM
In the spirit of a recently posted article, would that have improved the win probability?

Out of curiosity....


Starting win expectancy, runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2: 86.3%

Win expectancy after Dozier flyout: 82.2%

Win expectancy if successful sac bunt: 84.6%

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 02:22 PM
2 runs out of all of that? Twins baseball at its finest.

No. "Twins baseball at its finest" would have involved leaving the bases full with no runs in. This actually turned out not that badly.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:23 PM
Diamond out after 88 pitches? Is this a situation where we are turning 7-8-9 to the pen or was he running out of gas?

Long inning to sit, facing a day off, it seems reasonable to me.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:23 PM
I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done.

This is what I refer to as the three S's.


****, shower, ****.

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 02:24 PM
Out of curiosity....


Starting win expectancy, runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2: 86.3%

Win expectancy after Dozier flyout: 82.2%

Win expectancy if successful sac bunt: 84.6%

Thanks. Where do you find that?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:24 PM
I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done. Well, to each his own. At my age, I find it damned satisfying.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:25 PM
No. "Twins baseball at its finest" would have involved leaving the bases full with no runs in. This actually turned out not that badly.

That would be Twins Baseball™.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:25 PM
Starting win expectancy, runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2: 86.3%
Win expectancy after Dozier flyout: 82.2%
Win expectancy if successful sac bunt: 84.6%

That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:26 PM
Thanks. Where do you find that?

The link that Seth included in that article he wrote lets you enter the individual game situations.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:27 PM
That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.
Wouldn't that possibility be included in line one (runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2)?

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 02:30 PM
That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.

Maybe they already do this, but if not the day can't be far away when they have a laptop or something in the dugout that shows which is statistically more likely to result in a win, having him bunt or swing away, etc. in each particular game situation.

James
05-01-2013, 02:31 PM
Parmalee with the HR. Screwing up the save situation for Perkins unless he pitches at some point in the 8th inning as well.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:31 PM
That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.

That win expectancy is just what it would have been after the fact. You could of course input every potential result of his plate appearance, take the likelyhood of each event occurring, and then come up with an expected win expectancy for non-bunting, but that's an awful lot of work for a game thread.

:p

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:31 PM
Wouldn't that possibility be included in line one (runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2)?

Maybe I'm misreading, or maybe I'm not saying it clearly. Line one is before you make the decision whether to bunt or hit away, yes? (Florimon's already given you the two-run lead, now Dozier is up.)

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:32 PM
Fien has been a really nice addition to the pen. Kudos.

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 02:32 PM
Parmalee with the HR. Screwing up the save situation for Perkins unless he pitches at some point in the 8th inning as well.

Did they change the rules? I thought you had to go three innings before you could qualify for a save with the size run differential.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:32 PM
Maybe they already do this, but if not the day can't be far away when they have a laptop or something in the dugout that shows which is statistically more likely to result in a win, having him bunt or swing away, etc. in each particular game situation.

Gardy wants me to ask you what a laptop is.

Willihammer
05-01-2013, 02:32 PM
Damn, almost broke Dazzle's mic with that foul ball

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:33 PM
Parmelee homering also factors into the computation somewhere, I think. :)

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 02:33 PM
Gardy wants me to ask you what a laptop is.

It's a place where kids sit with their grandparents and Santa Claus.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:33 PM
Maybe I'm misreading, or maybe I'm not saying it clearly. Line one is before you make the decision whether to bunt or hit away, yes? (Florimon's already given you the two-run lead, now Dozier is up.)
Right, but I'm assuming the percentage for that situation includes all possible outcomes for the upcoming ABs, including Dozier possibly not moving the runner up, getting a hit or walk, an error, WP, or any possible outcome. Perhaps I'm confused.

glunn
05-01-2013, 02:35 PM
Parmelee homering also factors into the computation somewhere, I think. :)

The blond avatar is working today.

Willihammer
05-01-2013, 02:35 PM
Burton's average FA velo in April 2012: 92.91
Burton's average FA velo in April 2013: 91.44

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:35 PM
Gardy wants me to ask you what a laptop is.

He's been sneaking a look at my avatar, hasn't he?

/ edit: oops, sbk went the same direction and sooner, while I was updating and typing... I'll go with it anyway.

James
05-01-2013, 02:36 PM
Did they change the rules? I thought you had to go three innings before you could qualify for a save with the size run differential.
This also applies:
He enters the game, regardless of the count (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Count_(baseball)), with the potential tying run either on base (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baserunning), at bat (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_(baseball)) or on deck (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_deck_(baseball))

From here:
Save (baseball) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Save_(baseball))

GCTF
05-01-2013, 02:36 PM
Maybe I'm misreading, or maybe I'm not saying it clearly. Line one is before you make the decision whether to bunt or hit away, yes? (Florimon's already given you the two-run lead, now Dozier is up.)

The flyout (obviously) and the bunt, to a lesser extent both slightly reduce your win probability.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:39 PM
Right, but I'm assuming the percentage for that situation includes all possible outcomes for the upcoming ABs, including Dozier possibly not moving the runner up, getting a hit or walk, an error, WP, or any possible outcome. Perhaps I'm confused.

I think we're both on the same track then. First line was before the decision on Dozier, next two lines represent two possible outcomes, but there are others, and together (and properly weighted by frequency) they should all add back up to the first line's percentage. Most of the missing outcomes involve Dozier hitting safely or walking, and those should be lumped together with the second line, when deciding whether to bunt or not. That's my take, anyway.

snepp
05-01-2013, 02:43 PM
*snip*

I think we're all on the same page here.



Page 83, right?

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:43 PM
The flyout (obviously) and the bunt, to a lesser extent both slightly reduce your win probability.

Well, I'm about done beating this horse, whether it's dead or alive. But if these both reduce the win probability, then something else must raise it, and those are mostly associated with having Dozier hit away (and this time succeeding).

Bottom line, for me at least, is that bunt or not-bunt was indeed a close decision, and I'm currently persuaded that hitting away was a stronger choice than I originally thought. And I think the top of the order being up only strengthens that choice.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:44 PM
I think we're all on the same page here.
Page 83, right?

tl;dnr

glunn
05-01-2013, 02:46 PM
Burton is wild today?

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:51 PM
Parmalee with the HR. Screwing up the save situation for Perkins unless he pitches at some point in the 8th inning as well.

Perkins: shakes tiny fist at Parmelee.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:53 PM
Burton is wild today?

Effectively wild; do I earn a cliche point?

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 02:57 PM
Closers have trouble bearing down in non-save situations. Cliché point?

Willihammer
05-01-2013, 02:57 PM
What is the biggest waste of money at Treasure Island Casino:

A. Slots
B. Raffle
C. Gabriel Iglesias

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 02:58 PM
Closers have trouble bearing down in non-save situations. Cliché point?

Ding ding ding. But, please elaborate. Because we know you can.

/ edit: oh, and one style point for the accent aigu.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 03:00 PM
Closers have trouble bearing down in non-save situations. Cliché point?

Lulz...the Tigers announcers just went there.

glunn
05-01-2013, 03:01 PM
Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

Brock Beauchamp
05-01-2013, 03:01 PM
Sigh.

Brock Beauchamp
05-01-2013, 03:01 PM
Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

You can't pitch your way into a save opportunity.

snepp
05-01-2013, 03:02 PM
Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

Can't pitch yourself into a save opp glunnsie. :D

James
05-01-2013, 03:02 PM
What is the biggest waste of money at Treasure Island Casino:

A. Slots
B. Raffle
C. Gabriel Iglesias
At least option A and B are fun.

glunn
05-01-2013, 03:02 PM
You can't pitch your way into a save opportunity.

Congress does it all the time. But thanks for educating me on that.

TwinVike61
05-01-2013, 03:02 PM
Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

Good call!

big dog
05-01-2013, 03:03 PM
Winner winner chicken dinner!

snepp
05-01-2013, 03:03 PM
Back to .500, the march for 81 rolls on.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 03:03 PM
Can't pitch yourself into a save opp glunnsie. :D

Does the guy in the official scorer thread have a sense of humour? Maybe I'll ask him about this.

glunn
05-01-2013, 03:04 PM
Yes!!! Good win!

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 03:04 PM
What is the biggest waste of money at Treasure Island Casino:

A. Slots
B. Raffle
C. Gabriel Iglesias I misread option A and was checking flight prices to the cities. Glad I checked again.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 03:05 PM
Good thread, from cliches to win probability to poop jokes and even 4 or 5 posts of actual game discussion.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 03:06 PM
Lulz...the Tigers announcers just went there.

Looks like Perk went out of his way to prove the point. But, did they put the accent mark on Cliché like Chiefsié did?

To wrap up: it will take some time to count up all the Likes bestowed upon me this game. Price Waterhouse will be contacting the winner, and sending them their complimentary JPEG of avatar girl.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 03:06 PM
Winnah! Nice to get out of Day-twah with a win.

snepp
05-01-2013, 03:06 PM
I misread option A and was checking flight prices to the cities. Glad I checked again.

glunn's wife is telling your wife as soon as she reads this.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 03:06 PM
and even 4 or 5 posts of actual game discussion.

Wait, what? I missed those.

glunn
05-01-2013, 03:07 PM
Back to .500, the march for 81 rolls on.

I need 58 more wins for Vegas to owe me $90!

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 03:07 PM
Does the guy in the official scorer thread have a sense of humour? Maybe I'll ask him about this.

He'll bite your freaking head off. So, go for it.

USAFChief
05-01-2013, 03:08 PM
Ding ding ding. But, please elaborate. Because we know you can.

/ edit: oh, and one style point for the accent aigu. The style point goes to Bill Gates, not me.

GCTF
05-01-2013, 03:08 PM
I misread option A and was checking flight prices to the cities. Glad I checked again.

So you don't need new window blinds?

snepp
05-01-2013, 03:11 PM
Yes, essential alt codes to remember for forum amusement.

0233 é
0153 ™
0169 ©
0174 ®

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 03:14 PM
Dough-mitt walks. Now time for a Parmelee bomb. Sanchez at 32 pitches.

- ok, I'll settle for the RBI-producing single with the runners moving to 2nd/3rd.

Nah, you were just premature.

snepp
05-01-2013, 03:15 PM
Nah, you were just premature.

That's what s....nevermind.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 03:15 PM
Lineups like this inexplicably put up 6-8 runs, further egging on Gardy's afternoon-game-after-a-night-game lineups.

Prescient call, Nostradamus.

Top Gun
05-01-2013, 03:26 PM
Down goes dem Tigers, Twins needed this one!

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 03:28 PM
The blond avatar is working today.

Did not wish to jinx anything by saying so before, but yes, maybe Diamond has found his good luck charm.

ashburyjohn
05-01-2013, 03:31 PM
That's what s....nevermind.

"I'm coming!" Tom ej....nevermind.

IdahoPilgrim
05-01-2013, 05:32 PM
Good thread, from cliches to win probability to poop jokes and even 4 or 5 posts of actual game discussion.

How did those get in there? Where's the moderator?

snepp
05-01-2013, 06:22 PM
Where's the moderator?

That lazy bum was out walking the dog or something.

Nick Nelson
05-01-2013, 07:11 PM
13/3 GB/FB ratio for Diamond today. Only one walk. If he keeps throwing strikes and getting grounders (as he did all last year) he's going to be pretty good.

Brock Beauchamp
05-01-2013, 08:23 PM
13/3 GB/FB ratio for Diamond today. Only one walk. If he keeps throwing strikes and getting grounders (as he did all last year) he's going to be pretty good.

Yep. He appears to be picking up where he left off, and that's as a slightly above average starter. I think we'll all gladly take those kind of performances every fifth day.