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cmb0252
04-29-2013, 03:09 PM
To make things more convenient, aka I'm lazy, I'm going to link all the Twins draft threads in one place.

*College*
Mark Appel
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5304-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-mark-appel.html

Braden Shipley
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5439-braden-shipley-rhsp-university-nevada.html

Jonathan Gray
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5638-twins-potential-2013-draft-pick-jon-gray.html

Sean Manaea
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5302-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-sean-manaea.html

Tom Windle
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5306-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-tom-windle.html

Chris Anderson
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5506-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-chris-anderson.html

Ryan Stanek
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5305-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-ryne-stanek.html

Kris Bryant & Colin Moran
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6143-potential-2013-twins-draft-picks-colin-moran-kris-bryant.html

Second round college arms
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6187-potential-2013-twins-second-round-draft-picks-college-arms.html

College Relief Pitchers
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6341-potential-2013-twins-draft-picks-college-relief-pitchers.html#post105447

*High School*
Kohl Stewart
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6185-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-kohl-stewart.html

Clint Frazier & Austin Meadows
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6144-potential-2013-twins-draft-picks-clint-frazier-austin-meadows.html

Second Round HS arms
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6253-potential-2013-twins-second-round-draft-picks-hs-arms.html

*Others*
Jeremy's draft board V.3.0
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6153-article-draft-board-v-3-0-4-20-a.html

Jeremy's draft board V.2.0
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5559-article-draft-board-v-2-0-3-13-a.html

Jeremy's draft board V.1.0
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5204-article-draft-board-v-1-0-2-17-a.html

Draft Pick Values
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/5010-draft-pick-values.html

Draft Developments
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6395-draft-developments.html

The Mocks
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6452-2013-draft-mocks.html

The Boards
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6491-2013-draft-boards.html#post109259

Jeremy's Personal "Cheeseballs" (Hitters)
http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6438-article-draft-preview-personal-cheeseballs-hitters.html

I will try to update this as users add more content. If I missed anything let me know and I can link it. Hopefully this helps all the draft yuppies like me keep up with everything.

cmb0252
04-30-2013, 10:56 AM
I had no exact place to put this but I thought it was interesting. Jim Callis answered this during his weekly Ask BA:

With the NFL draft taking place last week, there was a lot of talk about “true first-rounders.” How many players in the MLB draft this year would you say are “true first-rounders”—guys who would be first-round picks in any year?

"I’ll draw my line at 24 no-doubt first-rounders. But if I wanted to be slightly more liberal, I easily could find enough to cover all 33 actual first-round selections."

Who did he name? Check out the article below. Even though it is a weak group there is still a ton of talent that has first round talent in any draft.

Rest of the article is here:
Ask BA: The 2013 Draft's "True First-Rounders" - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-who-are-the-2013-drafts-true-first-rounders/)

cmb0252
04-30-2013, 02:12 PM
From BA's What to expect in the first round: AL.

Twins

Top 10-Rd. Picks: 4, 43, 78, 110, 140, 170, 200, 230, 260, 290
Bonus Pool: $8,264,400
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson (http://www.baseballamerica.com/execdb/?show=exec&eid=johnsde01) (sixth year)
Johnson’s First-Round History: Aaron Hicks (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/33682) (14th overall, 2008), Kyle Gibson (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/59174)(22nd overall, 2009), Alex Wimmers (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/41110) (21st overall, 2010), Levi Michael (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/36226) (30th overall, 2011) & Byron Buxton (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/2073) (second overall, 2012)
Johnson’s Top 5-Round Breakdown: 33 picks (17 college pitchers, eight college position players, two high school pitchers & six high school position players)
The industry belief is that the Twins want pitching. But we wrote that last year too, and the team picked high school outfielder Byron Buxton. If the consensus top two talents—righthanders Mark Appel from Stanford or Jonathan Gray from Oklahoma—don’t fall, the Twins could go with Indiana State’s Manaea or Nevada’s Shipley if they want a pitcher. San Diego’s Bryant could also be in the mix.
But would you blame them if they decided to pair Buxton with another tooled-up Georgia high school outfielder like Clint Frazier or Austin Meadows? After all, the Twins’ Georgia scout, Jack Powell, has an impressive track record for finding big league talent. He is the signing scout for Tom Browning, Jose Bautista, Matt Moore, Matt Capps and Jeff Keppinger.

Complete article and break downs of the other 14 AL teams below:
What To Expect In The First Round: American League - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/what-to-expect-in-the-first-round-american-league/)

Twins Twerp
04-30-2013, 02:42 PM
This thread = Jizzing in my pants.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-30-2013, 04:17 PM
Well done, cmb0252!

ashburyjohn
04-30-2013, 04:37 PM
This thread = Jizzing in my pants.

Thanks for provoking more or less the negative of that response.

cmb0252
04-30-2013, 04:37 PM
Haha, I'm glad you guys enjoyed it. Makes finding things so much easier AND gives a general place to put nonspecific draft updates.

gunnarthor
04-30-2013, 11:29 PM
Interesting mention of Powell. I remember when Smith took over, Ryan wanted to concentrate and improve our scouting in the SE, specifically GA. I think his first year being in charge of the SE was when we took Goodrum in the 2nd round. Did we bring Powell to the org just in the last few years?

Edit: I looked it up, we brought Powell in around that time. Twins make changes in scouting department | twinsbaseball.com: Official Info (http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20080207&content_id=2367469&vkey=pr_min&fext=.jsp&c_id=min)

3rd Inning Stretch
05-01-2013, 12:10 PM
Interested on people's thoughts on the following:

Assume Buxton was in the draft this year, and nothing of what he's done since he was drafted is taken into consideration (forget everything!), where is he taken? Where would he rank of the three Georgia HS OF that would then be in this draft (Buxton, Frazier, Meadows)

maxisagod
05-01-2013, 12:11 PM
Jim Callis is doing a minor league/ draft chat right now and answered a question I had about what the Rockies might do:

Max (Minneapolis): Any idea what Rockies will do with the #3 overall pick in the draft?

Jim Callis: I feel very confident saying that Stanford RHP Mark Appel and Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray will go 1-2 or 2-1 to the Astros and Cubs. Less confident guessing (and at this points, it's guessing) what the Rockies will do at 3. I had a scouting director tell me yesterday that he thinks one of both of the top HS bats (Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows) might drop to No. 10 or lower. The best college bats (Kris Bryant, Colin Moran) play 3B, not a position of great need for the Rockies (not that you draft for need at No. 3). I'm not sure I like any of the arms at No. 3. So just guessing here, I'll say Bryant, who may wind up in the outfield anyway.

BaseballAmerica.com: Chat Draft (http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1367419046)

kab21
05-01-2013, 12:36 PM
Where would he rank of the three Georgia HS OF that would then be in this draft (Buxton, Frazier, Meadows)

Everything that I have read put Buxton in another tier from Meadows and Frazier.

Interesting comment from Callis:
I'm kind of interested who is going in the top 10 if one or both of Frazier and Meadows drop to #10 or lower. I think they still go in the top 10 unless teams start grabbing pitchers or something.

locks
Gray/Appel
Bryant

likelys
Manaea
Stewart
Denney

Possibles
Moran
Shipley

cmb0252
05-01-2013, 01:28 PM
Interested on people's thoughts on the following:

Assume Buxton was in the draft this year, and nothing of what he's done since he was drafted is taken into consideration (forget everything!), where is he taken? Where would he rank of the three Georgia HS OF that would then be in this draft (Buxton, Frazier, Meadows)

Jim Callis answered this question last week about Buxton vs the 2013 draft.
Who would you rather have: Buxton or the 2013 draft field?
Jim Callis: Buxton

Keith law has also stated he would rather have Buxton over anyone in the 2013 draft, including Appel and Gray who are considered the top two talents this year. Meadows and Frazier are great talents but Buxton is on another level compared to these guys.

cmb0252
05-01-2013, 01:30 PM
Jim Callis is doing a minor league/ draft chat right now and answered a question I had about what the Rockies might do:

Max (Minneapolis): Any idea what Rockies will do with the #3 overall pick in the draft?

Jim Callis: I feel very confident saying that Stanford RHP Mark Appel and Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray will go 1-2 or 2-1 to the Astros and Cubs. Less confident guessing (and at this points, it's guessing) what the Rockies will do at 3. I had a scouting director tell me yesterday that he thinks one of both of the top HS bats (Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows) might drop to No. 10 or lower. The best college bats (Kris Bryant, Colin Moran) play 3B, not a position of great need for the Rockies (not that you draft for need at No. 3). I'm not sure I like any of the arms at No. 3. So just guessing here, I'll say Bryant, who may wind up in the outfield anyway.

BaseballAmerica.com: Chat Draft (http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1367419046)

Haha, I was going to post that answer here but you beat me to it! Great question. Here are two others I found interesting:

If 1-3 are Appel, Gray, Manaea, what do the Twins do? Can't take Bryant since he'd be sent to high A where Sano is playing third. I'm not sure they'd want to take another OF but I don't know if the 4th best pitcher is a better option.
Jim Callis: Don’t think Manaea goes No. 3 right now. But if that did happen, I might take Kohl Stewart at No. 4.

What do you see the Twins doing at 4? College Pitcher, or simply the best player available?
Jim Callis: I think they’ll go pitcher, which might be the best player available as well.

Also, Christopher Crawford has a draft chat today at 3 at his website mlbdraftinsider.com. I will try and get those questions/answers up on the appropriate threads once the chat is done.

gunnarthor
05-01-2013, 01:55 PM
Right now I think the Twins will take either Shipley or Manaea but it'll be interesting to see how the 3-8 prospects start shaking themselves out.

Twins Twerp
05-01-2013, 02:14 PM
Right now I think the Twins will take either Shipley or Manaea but it'll be interesting to see how the 3-8 prospects start shaking themselves out.

I am going to have to disagree and say Bryant or Stewart. I know the Twins brass doesn't take high school pitchers, but they have broken from their "old ways" the last few years. I think Bryant is going to be an exceptional hitter. Think Prince Fielder behind Miguel Cabrera (Bryant Behind Sano).

gunnarthor
05-01-2013, 02:23 PM
I am going to have to disagree and say Bryant or Stewart. I know the Twins brass doesn't take high school pitchers, but they have broken from their "old ways" the last few years. I think Bryant is going to be an exceptional hitter. Think Prince Fielder behind Miguel Cabrera (Bryant Behind Sano).

I like your thinking and wouldn't be opposed to either, BUT ...

If they take Bryant, he'd head to A+ where we already have Sano working at third so one of them would be moved to RF. Bryant might not be worth the #4 pick if he's a RFer. I know you don't draft for need at #4 but I think that would be a tie breaker point against Bryant. Unless they really love that bat, I don't see it happening (and I love Bryant. I would actually be very happy to see us have him).

I could see the Twins taking Stewart - they took Berrios last year - but I think they'd want more of a sure thing at #4 than a HS arm.

cmb0252
05-01-2013, 02:42 PM
From Christopher Crawford's chat today regarding the Twins at 4:






Comment From Kyle
With the lack of top tier pitching prospects in the organization should the Twins only consider a pitcher at #4 or should they go BPA?











3:02

Always, always go BPA. That being said, I've heard more pitchers connected to them, though I know they like Kris Bryant a lot, too.

Twins Twerp
05-01-2013, 02:45 PM
Totally agree with you. The number 3 and 4 picks are kind of conundrums. This draft has two great college arms and everybody else. On his podcast a few weeks ago, Law and a guy from Fox Sports talked about tiers. The first tier had Gray and Appel, the second tier is very fluid. I realized after I posted the Bryant vs. Stewart post that Jeremy literally posted the same thing yesterday in another thread. I know I didn't read it so I am going to go ahead and pat myself on the back for having an opinion that one of the great draft analyzers has. (Or I did read it and plagiarized his take)

kab21
05-01-2013, 03:06 PM
Not taking Bryant because you don't have a place to play him in the minors is beyond stupid. Maybe you don't think he is a good pick at #4 but at least come up with a good reason.

gunnarthor
05-01-2013, 03:14 PM
Not taking Bryant because you don't have a place to play him in the minors is beyond stupid. Maybe you don't think he is a good pick at #4 but at least come up with a good reason.

That seemed overly dickish.

Bryant's value as #4 pick is partially dependent on him playing third. If the Twins move him to RF, I'm not sure he's worth the pick (maybe his bat is worth it, his RH bat at TF could be very exciting). I think the Twins will consider that when they are considering the group of players in the tier that they are picking and I suspect that none of the players they are considering will have separated themselves so much that it wouldn't be an issue, thus I think they'll go with a pitcher over Bryant. Not so sure why you got your panties in a wad over that.

kab21
05-01-2013, 03:32 PM
You don't pass on a player because you don't have a place to play him Ft Myers. Especially when almost everyone thinks that Sano will be promoted at midseason anyway.

In addition Bryant's value at #4 is not dependent on him playing third anymore than Sano's prospect ranking is dependent on him staying at third. Bryant is the best hitter in the draft even if he's playing OF and Sano is one of the best hitters in the minors even if he's playing OF.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-01-2013, 03:41 PM
I wouldn't worry about the position issue at all. Romero just reported to the States, Sobolewski hasn't hit and Plouffe is in the doghouse. There really aren't any 3B prospects at AA and AAA, so between those two levels and hi-A, I'm sure that they could find plenty of innings to play both at 3B.

I could handle Stewart, Manaea, Meadows or Bryant at this point and not think the Twins "reached" at #3. The Twins believe Sano has a better shot to stick at 3B than Bryant. I'm not as sold on Shipley or Frazier.

I sent the BA link to Jack Powell. He's a great guy. If you didn't pick up the Seth Stohs and Co. Prospect Handbook, you still can. There is an interview I did with Jack in it.

As the draft creeps closer, my excitement level continues to rise. (Can you tell?!)

Twins Twerp
05-01-2013, 03:59 PM
As the draft creeps closer, my excitement level continues to rise. (Can you tell?!)

Here I thought it was a banana

cmb0252
05-01-2013, 04:10 PM
It's hard not to get excited about the draft after seeing how well all the recent draft picks are doing already. We have one of the best, if not the best, farm system in baseball and in a little over a month we will be adding more talent. While who the Twins will draft is still up in the air, no matter what we will still be getting a top 100 level talent at 4.

70charger
05-01-2013, 04:25 PM
If 1-3 are Appel, Gray, Manaea, what do the Twins do? Can't take Bryant since he'd be sent to high A where Sano is playing third. I'm not sure they'd want to take another OF but I don't know if the 4th best pitcher is a better option.
Jim Callis: Donít think Manaea goes No. 3 right now. But if that did happen, I might take Kohl Stewart at No. 4.


Is next year's draft projected to be significantly better? If so, there's some "protection" from the signability issue for Kohl Stewart. If he decides to follow through on football, the Twins get #5 in 2014.

gunnarthor
05-01-2013, 04:38 PM
Is next year's draft projected to be significantly better? If so, there's some "protection" from the signability issue for Kohl Stewart. If he decides to follow through on football, the Twins get #5 in 2014.

I think it's generally considered better. I know in a ask BA a few weeks ago, they listed next years potential #1 ahead of both Appel and Gray, right now.

That said, I don't want to see us not sign someone this year. I suspect we'll still have a top 10, maybe top 5 pick (I think Ryan will trade Willingham and Morneau and the Twins won't remain a .500 team). So no point in missing a year of development. But I also think that Stewart would take the 4.5m we'd offer.

cmb0252
05-01-2013, 05:46 PM
Just because next year looks like a better overall class that doesn't mean the Twins would get a better prospect at 5 next year. This draft is weak because of it's depth, not the top level talent. Who ever the twins take at 4 is going to be a great prospect be it Bryant, Stewart, Manaea, or whom ever.

70charger
05-02-2013, 11:59 AM
Just because next year looks like a better overall class that doesn't mean the Twins would get a better prospect at 5 next year. This draft is weak because of it's depth, not the top level talent. Who ever the twins take at 4 is going to be a great prospect be it Bryant, Stewart, Manaea, or whom ever.

Good to know.

cmb0252
05-02-2013, 01:33 PM
Some general questions and answers from Keith Laws chat:

What this this coming draft deepest in?
Klaw (1:09 PM)

College starters, mostly RHP, and prep catchers. Weakest in the middle infield.

Is there any reason Houston wouldn't take Appel with the number 1 over all pick?
Klaw (1:34 PM)

To take a player who'd accept less money and spend it later in the draft. Last year it made sense to me. This year it makes less sense - I would take Appel.

Law regarding the draft:Right now, I'd project the top five to go Gray, Appel, Bryant, Manaea, Moran. Most people I talk to expect the Astros to try to cut a deal with Gray to use the extra money on someone who falls at 40, like Stewart.

cmb0252
05-02-2013, 01:37 PM
I was surprised he didn't mention HS LHP as one of the deepest parts of the draft. There are a ton of interesting arms in that group, Also, I hadn't heard anything about the Astros trying to cut a deal with Gray. Its not surprising seeing they did the same strategy last year, just hadn't heard it.

kab21
05-02-2013, 08:42 PM
I don't understand how much of a deal they think they will get on Gray. There is only a 1M difference between 1 and 2 and Gray is virtually assured of being drafted at #2. The Astros might pick him regardless. Last year the Astros saved 2.4M by taking Correa. If they are going to save money then going after a guy like Meadows/Denney/Frazier makes sense since they are in the back half of the top 10.

amjgt
05-03-2013, 10:41 AM
I have a "pool of money question"

The Twins have 8.5 mil to spend this year (and that covers both draft and international signings?). If they don't sign the #4 pick, obviously they have that slotted money to spend elsewhere. They could pay more to #42 and spend more in the international signings.

Fast forward to the 2014 draft...

Twins get the #5 pick because of not signing their #4 this year, and whatever draft pick they "earn" from their 2013 record. Would that generate a significantly larger pool of money (say $11 mil)?

amjgt
05-03-2013, 10:42 AM
Also, how much more fun would all of this be if teams could trade draft picks?

kab21
05-03-2013, 11:15 AM
I have a "pool of money question"

The Twins have 8.5 mil to spend this year (and that covers both draft and international signings?). If they don't sign the #4 pick, obviously they have that slotted money to spend elsewhere. They could pay more to #42 and spend more in the international signings.

Fast forward to the 2014 draft...

Twins get the #5 pick because of not signing their #4 this year, and whatever draft pick they "earn" from their 2013 record. Would that generate a significantly larger pool of money (say $11 mil)?

The 8.5M is just for the American draft. There is a separate pool for the int'l draft.

If they don't sign the #4 pick then they lose the pool money and can't spend it elsewhere.

Yes, they would get the #5 pick and a larger bonus pool in 2014.

The Twins won't be in a position to not be able to sign a pick. I don't think Appel, Stewart or anyone else would risk not signing at pick #4 slot money. if it was pick #8 then there would be a concern but #4 slot money is a lot.

gunnarthor
05-03-2013, 11:15 AM
I have a "pool of money question"

The Twins have 8.5 mil to spend this year (and that covers both draft and international signings?). If they don't sign the #4 pick, obviously they have that slotted money to spend elsewhere. They could pay more to #42 and spend more in the international signings.

Fast forward to the 2014 draft...

Twins get the #5 pick because of not signing their #4 this year, and whatever draft pick they "earn" from their 2013 record. Would that generate a significantly larger pool of money (say $11 mil)?

They have 8.5m to spend on the draft (I think they have another 3.7 on international but they aren't combined). If they don't sign #4 pick, they lose the 4.5m slotted by MLB for that pick. They can't use it elsewhere.

If they don't sign the #4 pick and have the #7 pick from their record, next years draft bonus would be pretty high (last year the Twins had the highest pool because they had the 2nd pick but also two supp picks).

Steve Lein
05-03-2013, 11:46 AM
Wouldn't worry about Kris Bryant at 3B, there is a lot of talk about him 'ala Sano of years past, he's not going to stay there unless the team absolutely wants him too. He'll play 1B professionally. He also sounds a lot like the type of guy personality-wise the Twins have wet dreams over, so there's that.

gunnarthor
05-03-2013, 11:53 AM
Wouldn't worry about Kris Bryant at 3B, there is a lot of talk about him 'ala Sano of years past, he's not going to stay there unless the team absolutely wants him too. He'll play 1B professionally. He also sounds a lot like the type of guy personality-wise the Twins have wet dreams over, so there's that.

A future potential lineup with an OF of Arcia, Buxton, Hicks and an IF with Sano and Bryant at the corners could potentially be pretty good. Obviously a long way off but Sano and Buxton look like real things and Hicks/Arcia are already up.

James
05-03-2013, 12:40 PM
Also, how much more fun would all of this be if teams could trade draft picks?
This year, there are some draft picks that can be traded. These come from the "competitive balance lottery". The Twins didn't get one of these draft picks for this draft. These picks are awarded to the 10 lowest revenues teams and 10 smallest market teams. They can be traded to with players, but a team can't throw one out there to move up in the regular draft order.

As far as trading regular picks goes, I'm not all that interested in it. With a 40 round draft, and the fact that in a good draft, a team may only sign 50% or so of the players they draft, things get a little awkward if trading picks is allowed. It works for other sports because drafted players can generally have an immediate impact on the team. It usually takes a few years even for a first round draft pick to make it to the mlb.

As far as this year's draft goes, it looks like the Twins are going to get one of Manaea, Stewart or Bryant. That is, unless someone else comes out of nowhere, but that's kind of unlikely at this point. I would be happy with any of those guys really.

buckshotmike
05-03-2013, 12:41 PM
Wouldn't worry about Kris Bryant at 3B, there is a lot of talk about him 'ala Sano of years past, he's not going to stay there unless the team absolutely wants him too. He'll play 1B professionally. He also sounds a lot like the type of guy personality-wise the Twins have wet dreams over, so there's that.

This is the first comment that mentions that Kris Bryant might play first base. Is this an option? The Twins have no legit answer long term at first. Maybe Travis Harrison but I see him as a Parmalee clone with limited ceiling.

nicksaviking
05-03-2013, 01:07 PM
Jason Churchill at ESPN wrote about the 2nd tier of college pitchers. I guess he mentions Manea, Stanek and Eads. The article is summed up at MLBTR and it says that Churchill states Manea would likely be the first of the second tier to go (duh) and he could go to the Rockies at #3, the Indians at #5 or the Red Sox at #7.

I'm curious why he does not think he is a possibity for the Twins at #4. Is it due to the team's track record with drafting position players, or does he know something we don't. It's an insider article and I'm not paying ESPN any more than my cable bill dictates so I don't have more info on the piece.

mike wants wins
05-03-2013, 01:17 PM
That's about all he says, Nick.

Steve Lein
05-03-2013, 01:21 PM
This is the first comment that mentions that Kris Bryant might play first base. Is this an option? The Twins have no legit answer long term at first. Maybe Travis Harrison but I see him as a Parmalee clone with limited ceiling.

I've read it in several scouting reports. They also mention the OF, but not many call him even an "average" third baseman.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-03-2013, 01:23 PM
Jason Churchill at ESPN wrote about the 2nd tier of college pitchers. I guess he mentions Manea, Stanek and Eads. The article is summed up at MLBTR and it says that Churchill states Manea would likely be the first of the second tier to go (duh) and he could go to the Rockies at #3, the Indians at #5 or the Red Sox at #7.

I'm curious why he does not think he is a possibity for the Twins at #4. Is it due to the team's track record with drafting position players, or does he know something we don't. It's an insider article and I'm not paying ESPN any more than my cable bill dictates so I don't have more info on the piece.


I chalked that one up to "Churchill isn't very good at his 'job'."

Jeremy Nygaard
05-03-2013, 01:26 PM
I've read it in several scouting reports. They also mention the OF, but not many call him even an "average" third baseman.

If the Twins draft Bryant, 1B would be the "back-up plan". They view him as "less than 50/50" sticking at 3B. They don't need another option in the corner OF and playing him at 1B probably gets his bat into the bigs the quickest. He could probably handle an outfield corner in a (slightly better than) Delmon sortaway. But with an organizational opening (potentially) at first base, why not.

cmb0252
05-03-2013, 01:47 PM
Jason Churchill at ESPN wrote about the 2nd tier of college pitchers. I guess he mentions Manea, Stanek and Eads. The article is summed up at MLBTR and it says that Churchill states Manea would likely be the first of the second tier to go (duh) and he could go to the Rockies at #3, the Indians at #5 or the Red Sox at #7.

I'm curious why he does not think he is a possibity for the Twins at #4. Is it due to the team's track record with drafting position players, or does he know something we don't. It's an insider article and I'm not paying ESPN any more than my cable bill dictates so I don't have more info on the piece.


Churchill did a write up on McGuire today and he ended with this:

"At present, McGuire is an above-average runner, but speed is not likely to be a part of his game in pro ball. He's committed to San Diego, but he's a first-round talent and almost certain to sign. He's looked the part of a late first-round pick for me, but it only takes one club to like him a lot more than that and he could be gone in the top half of the round, with Minnesota at No. 4 the highest I've heard."

This is the second time has link McGuire to the Twins in the past week and I just can't see the Twins taking him that high. McGuire isnt a bad prospect but i really cant see the Twins grabbing a HS catcher at 4 with all the arms and toolsy outfielders around. As Jeremy said just chalk this up to Churchill not being good at his job.

cmb0252
05-03-2013, 01:49 PM
If you draft Bryant at 4 you are doing it for his bat and his bat definitely will play at 1st.

nicksaviking
05-03-2013, 02:40 PM
As Jeremy said just chalk this up to Churchill not being good at his job.

Can't argue with that, unless someone else thinks grabbing the 2nd best HS catcher at #4 is a good move.

nicksaviking
05-03-2013, 02:43 PM
If you draft Bryant at 4 you are doing it for his bat and his bat definitely will play at 1st.

I agree. It's similar to my confusion why some people see Frazier as a better bat but would rather have Meadows simply because he has a slight chance of playing CF. If you're picking offense at #4, pick the best bat, don't qualify based on position.

maxisagod
05-03-2013, 03:06 PM
I chalked that one up to "Churchill isn't very good at his 'job'."

He could simply be talking to different Twins scouts than you are. I'm guessing the Twins scouting staff haven't all sat down yet and compared notes.

That being said, I think he's off on McGuire. Somebody simply might have said they liked him better than Denny (McGuire does have a better arm and is strong on defense in general) and he took it as the Twins would consider drafting him at 4.

Like it's been mentioned above, if a team is taking a guy like Bryant they are taking him for his bat, the same should hold true for Denny IF someone thinks he's the best prep bat (but I don't think that's the Twins).

Jeremy Nygaard
05-03-2013, 03:32 PM
You are probably right. But you don't have to talk to scouts to know that the Twins would prefer a college pitcher. I can't remember if Ryan or Antony said it flat-out (maybe it was both).

I'm on board with cmb0252's thinking: Appel, Gray, Manaea, Bryant or Stewart. (Though not necessarily in that order.)

ashburyjohn
05-03-2013, 04:55 PM
I'm on board with cmb0252's thinking: Appel, Gray, Manaea, Bryant or Stewart. (Though not necessarily in that order.)

Since the Twins pick 4th, and it's nearly certain that the first three players picked are in this list, I think we kind of need an ordering here. :)

Jeremy Nygaard
05-03-2013, 07:42 PM
I have some news that deserves a thread of its own. We'll call it a curveball, stay tuned...

cmb0252
05-03-2013, 07:49 PM
I have some news that deserves a thread of its own. We'll call it a curveball, stay tuned...

Consider me tuned. Hopefully it is good news.

Brodin4Calder
05-03-2013, 07:57 PM
Man I wish there was a way the Twins could get Gray or Appel. We need a top of the line arm.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-03-2013, 09:07 PM
That being said, I think he's off on McGuire. Somebody simply might have said they liked him better than Denny (McGuire does have a better arm and is strong on defense in general) and he took it as the Twins would consider drafting him at 4.

Like it's been mentioned above, if a team is taking a guy like Bryant they are taking him for his bat, the same should hold true for Denny IF someone thinks he's the best prep bat (but I don't think that's the Twins).

More on McGuire vs Denney: Twins view McGuire as more complete package; Denney with more power. Consider McGuire mid-first round, Denney back-half of first round.

Interesting, yes. But sounds about right considering how the Twins operate. Sounds like Pittsburgh (who drafts 9 and 14) likes McGuire. I have my eyes on a different prep catcher, who I'll reveal in my next draft post, potentially this weekend.

maxisagod
05-03-2013, 10:55 PM
More on McGuire vs Denney: Twins view McGuire as more complete package; Denney with more power. Consider McGuire mid-first round, Denney back-half of first round.

Interesting, yes. But sounds about right considering how the Twins operate. Sounds like Pittsburgh (who drafts 9 and 14) likes McGuire. I have my eyes on a different prep catcher, who I'll reveal in my next draft post, potentially this weekend.

Yep I'm sure they like Meadows over Frazier for the same reason. I'm guessing McGuire goes 9. Pittsburgh needs a pick they can sign there otherwise they lose the pick.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-03-2013, 11:03 PM
Yep I'm sure they like Meadows over Frazier for the same reason. I'm guessing McGuire goes 9. Pittsburgh needs a pick they can sign there otherwise they lose the pick.

Compensation protection is two years now. Regardless, McGuire to Pitt has steam.

cmb0252
05-06-2013, 12:43 PM
Twins 9th round pick last year, only twins draftee that didn't sign in the first 10 rounds, L.J Mazzilli has had a pretty solid year. He isn't going to go in the first few rounds but he should go much higher than the 9th round.

cmb0252
05-06-2013, 03:43 PM
Article from Mayo at mlb.com, Who's No. 1? Six leading candidate s for the first draft pick. Article below:

Who's No. 1? Six leading candidates for the first pick in 2013 First-Year Player Draft | MLB.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130506&content_id=46752146&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb)

Two things surprise me.
1) He has Manaea in the conversation for #1.
2) He doesn't have Stewart in the mix even though some people have link the Astros to them.
While I still think the Astros will take Appel or Gray it is an interesting read.

righty8383
05-06-2013, 09:42 PM
Based on recent developments regarding Manaea, if the Twins still want a pitcher, they pretty much have to take Stewart right?

Jeremy Nygaard
05-06-2013, 10:28 PM
Based on recent developments regarding Manaea, if the Twins still want a pitcher, they pretty much have to take Stewart right?

I don't know what to think anymore. The Twins have a history of taking guys who have done well in the Cape Cod League. Typically, though, the guys that did well there and struggle in college don't get drafted very high.

Eight months ago, Manaea was 1a and 1b on my personal preference list. After watching him play live and following Appel closely, Appel nudged ahead. Manaea was good, not electric, but showed flashed of a top-of-the-rotation starter. He missed a lot of bats, but was even further away than I had anticipated. He worked slow, but was still 92, 93, 94. He rolled his ankle in celebrating the win. Now the hip deal.

For sanity's sake, I'm hoping against a hitter, but Kris Bryant has been unbelievable. Besides Gray, who won't be around, no one else has really come to the forefront.

Kohl Stewart? I'd buy it. Not sure the Twins go prep that early. Austin Meadows? The Twins like him. I'm really at a loss.

I'm going to give it through the weekend and start bugging people again.

clutterheart
05-06-2013, 11:20 PM
Article from Mayo at mlb.com, Who's No. 1? Six leading candidate s for the first draft pick. Article below:

Who's No. 1? Six leading candidates for the first pick in 2013 First-Year Player Draft | MLB.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130506&content_id=46752146&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb)

Two things surprise me.
1) He has Manaea in the conversation for #1.
2) He doesn't have Stewart in the mix even though some people have link the Astros to them.
While I still think the Astros will take Appel or Gray it is an interesting read.

Astros are the wild card here I think. They had a HUGE draft last year taking a guy they could sign for less and then using the money for lower round guys. If they do that again, Appel, Gray or Bryant would be there for them. Its kind of bummer that this year the draft looks to be 3 deep without the Gausmans or Zimmers that were around last year.

cmb0252
05-07-2013, 09:19 AM
Baseball America has a weekly article called Ask BA which answers three reader questions a week. This week they had a very interesting draft question, also a question about the Twins own Adam Walker, but here is the draft question:

The consensus is that 2013 is a relatively weak draft for top-end position players, especially from the college ranks. To put things in perspective, where would you have ranked San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant and Georgia high school outfielders Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows in the 2011 and 2012 drafts?

What BA has to say is an interesting read and way too long to repaste here but here is the break down.

In the 2012 draft Bryant, Meadows, and Frazier would be behind Buxton, Correa, and Zunio but in the same group as Almora which would put them in the 8-11 range overall. In the 2011 draft they would be behind Rendon and Starling (even though Starling's star has dimmed since the draft) but in the same group as Lindor which would put them in the 7-10 range in one of the deepest drafts ever. These placements focus on how the players were viewed before the draft and not what they have done since.

For the full explanation of the question above or to reads the Adam Walker question click the link below:

Ask BA: How Do Draft's Top Bats Stack Up? - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ask-ba-how-do-2013-drafts-top-bats-stack-up/)

gunnarthor
05-07-2013, 09:39 AM
Based on recent developments regarding Manaea, if the Twins still want a pitcher, they pretty much have to take Stewart right?

What about Stanek or Shipley?

cmb0252
05-07-2013, 10:04 AM
The Twins are in a hard spot at #4. The year started with 3 elite pitchers in Appel, Stanek, and Manaea before the emergence of Gray. Due to inconsistency Stanek has most likely fallen out of the top ten while Manaea has been a mess himself. This leaves the draft with two top pitching prospects, which will most likely go 1-2, for the top four teams who all need pitching.

Bryant, Frazier, and Meadows are great prospects, would be welcome additions to our minors, but they don't exactly fill any major need. We have the deepest group of young outfielders in the game and a bunch of fringe 3B. Clearly you don't draft for need but every Twins fan in the world was hoping for a college ace at 4.

Then there is one of my personal favorites, Kohl Stewart. He is a pitcher with ace potential but is a HS arm with several big question marks. Add in the fact Johnson has only drafted 2 HS pitchers in his 33 top 5 round picks and I'm not sure I see the Twins pulling the trigger.

Where does that leave the Twins? Some might suggest take a lesser player at 4 at a discount and spend the savings later but I'm not a fan. While we might not need one of the bats above there is a huge drop off of talent after the top 6 and I want a star if I'm drafting in the top 5. I also don't see punting the pick this year to get the #5 pick next year in what is currently considered a deeper class. Drafts are fluid and things change. There is no way to know if a better prospect will be there at 5.

There isn't a ton of time left, college pitchers only get 3 more starts, before the draft. While everyone wants a college arm at 4 don't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

nicksaviking
05-07-2013, 10:04 AM
More on McGuire vs Denney: Twins view McGuire as more complete package; Denney with more power. Consider McGuire mid-first round, Denney back-half of first round.

Interesting, yes. But sounds about right considering how the Twins operate. Sounds like Pittsburgh (who drafts 9 and 14) likes McGuire. I have my eyes on a different prep catcher, who I'll reveal in my next draft post, potentially this weekend.

That makes me feel better. I don't want the Twins to go anywhere near a HS catcher.

If the Twins happened to draft Bryant, what will come of the minor league 3B situation? They'd have Sano, Bryant and Harrison, three slugging 3B prospects with questionable defense. RF is always a possiblity but 1B is probably the bigger hole. Does one of them get moved from 3B immediately?

My guess is Harrison would move across the diamond to 1B immediately. The team has put a lot of time and effort into Sano's defense and it's starting to pay off. Bryant has RF experience so if they needed to move him to the OF at some point, it should not be a difficult or lengthy transition.

cmb0252
05-07-2013, 10:14 AM
What about Stanek or Shipley?

After putting together several good starts in a row Stanek threw a very mediocre game last weekend. 5.1 innings, 7 H, 3 ER, 4/2 K/BB with reports that his stuff was really inconsistent during the outing. He is way too inconsistent to be a top 5 pick IMO.

Shipley had a great game this past weekend but threw a clunker the week before. Like Zimmer last year, both converted position players, there is room to dream about them turning into aces but a ton of question marks. Also, I believe Jeremy has reported that the Twins aren't high on him.

cmb0252
05-07-2013, 10:21 AM
That makes me feel better. I don't want the Twins to go anywhere near a HS catcher.

If the Twins happened to draft Bryant, what will come of the minor league 3B situation? They'd have Sano, Bryant and Harrison, three slugging 3B prospects with questionable defense. RF is always a possiblity but 1B is probably the bigger hole. Does one of them get moved from 3B immediately?

My guess is Harrison would move across the diamond to 1B immediately. The team has put a lot of time and effort into Sano's defense and it's starting to pay off. Bryant has RF experience so if they needed to move him to the OF at some point, it should not be a difficult or lengthy transition.

Bryant definitely has the arm and athletic ability to play RF but what do you do with Arcia? Move him to left? I actually think with Morny most likely leaving this year you can draft Bryant and have him up early in 2014 playing 1B.

gunnarthor
05-07-2013, 10:32 AM
Where does that leave the Twins? Some might suggest take a lesser player at 4 at a discount and spend the savings later but I'm not a fan. While we might not need one of the bats above there is a huge drop off of talent after the top 6 and I want a star if I'm drafting in the top 5. I also don't see punting the pick this year to get the #5 pick next year in what is currently considered a deeper class. Drafts are fluid and things change. There is no way to know if a better prospect will be there at 5.

Yeah, I don't really like the idea of abandoning BPA either. One way it could work would be if the Twins could land an arm like Florida's Whitson who is out for the season with an injury but was supposed to be a top 10 talent coming into the draft. Jeremy thinks he'll stay in college. The Twins would have to pick him in a later round and hope that they could save enough money to take a risk on a injured player. I'm not sure I love that idea. The other way would be if there were tough HS players to sign (McCullers last year) but that doesn't seem like Johnson's MO.

I guess I still think the Twins take Manaea unless Houston does something strange for us.

Reginald Maudling's Shin
05-07-2013, 10:34 AM
After putting together several good starts in a row Stanek threw a very mediocre game last weekend. 5.1 innings, 7 H, 3 ER, 4/2 K/BB with reports that his stuff was really inconsistent during the outing. He is way too inconsistent to be a top 5 pick IMO.

Shipley had a great game this past weekend but threw a clunker the week before. Like Zimmer last year, both converted position players, there is room to dream about them turning into aces but a ton of question marks. Also, I believe Jeremy has reported that the Twins aren't high on him.
I watched a little but of Stanek vs. Kentucky this weekend. The UK guys were even saying his velocity was way down. I've never seen him pitch before but he didn't look overpowering at all.

gunnarthor
05-07-2013, 10:36 AM
Bryant definitely has the arm and athletic ability to play RF but what do you do with Arcia? Move him to left? I actually think with Morny most likely leaving this year you can draft Bryant and have him up early in 2014 playing 1B.

Well, keep in mind that Bryant will finish this year at, most likely, A+. Next year he'll be in AA and hopefully he moves fast but he might not be ready until 2015. He's having a great year but he's not playing in the SEC either (Zunino is struggling at AAA for Seattle). I don't think he's going from college to the majors with only 300 milb PAs.

diehardtwinsfan
05-07-2013, 05:19 PM
I agree. It's similar to my confusion why some people see Frazier as a better bat but would rather have Meadows simply because he has a slight chance of playing CF. If you're picking offense at #4, pick the best bat, don't qualify based on position.

I have to disagree here. A guy that will stick at SS and hit .300 with 25 HRs is far more valuable than a guy who's a DH/1B and hit .310 with 35 HRs. Position matters, especially with positions like C, SS, 2B, and CF.

cmb0252
05-08-2013, 03:51 PM
BA put out a nice article about this years draft class which they talk to the Astros new scouting director Mike Elias. Elias mentions that the group they are considering for the #1 pick is down to seven (doesn't give names) and talks about the pressure that comes with this high of pick.

“It’s a little easier in one sense because there’s less guesswork as to who’s getting to you, so you can basically get as much information as you want on the players that you’re targeting,” Elias said. “The negative end of it is that it’s very time-consuming scouting those guys. Especially this year with there being several Friday night starters basically in contention for the spot, you’re using a lot of Fridays on those guys and it makes it difficult to scout and see the rest of the Friday night guys across the country. That’s one negative—and then yeah, it’s the No. 1 pick, so expectations are obviously very high. It’s good because you’re going to get a good player no matter what, but it’s a big decision, clearly, so there’s certainly a lot of pressure to deliver on it.”

Link for the full article below:
Sizing Up The Draft Class Of 2013 - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/sizing-up-the-draft-class-of-2013/)

nicksaviking
05-08-2013, 04:11 PM
I have to disagree here. A guy that will stick at SS and hit .300 with 25 HRs is far more valuable than a guy who's a DH/1B and hit .310 with 35 HRs. Position matters, especially with positions like C, SS, 2B, and CF.

Right, but it's not as though Meadows can be slotted in CF with any certainty. It's not likely that he will stick there anyway. Even if he was capable, you'd basically be drafting a lesser offensive talent as insurance in case Buxton (the far superior fielder) didn't pan out. That's much too passive of an approach to the draft.

I'm not exceedingly excited about Frazier either, but if the team thinks he has a higher ceiling, it would be silly for them to take a inferior hitter because he may be able play CF.

Please
05-09-2013, 08:49 AM
I wonder with the knee injury to Ryan Boldt if that will drop him to the second round where I'd love the Twins to take him?

cmb0252
05-09-2013, 09:02 AM
I wonder with the knee injury to Ryan Boldt if that will drop him to the second round where I'd love the Twins to take him?

While I still don't think he will make it back to the Twins at 43 he has a significantly higher chance than he use to. Not only has the injury slowed him down but the whole living in Minnesota hasn't helped. His season just started while other HS prospects have finished up. When a HS season starts doesn't hurt a draft prospects ability, it does limit how much you get to see of them before the draft which might scare some teams off. He would be a steal at 43!

Please
05-09-2013, 10:07 AM
While I still don't think he will make it back to the Twins at 43 he has a significantly higher chance than he use to. Not only has the injury slowed him down but the whole living in Minnesota hasn't helped. His season just started while other HS prospects have finished up. When a HS season starts doesn't hurt a draft prospects ability, it does limit how much you get to see of them before the draft which might scare some teams off. He would be a steal at 43!

I know he's shown enough on the showcase curcuit over the last couple years that I could still see him getting taken late 1/early 2. But hopefully (selfishly for the Twins) between cold weather, knee, not being able to play summer ball and Nebraska commit that he'll drop.

cmb0252
05-09-2013, 10:45 AM
On ESPN, insider required, Jason Churchill put out an article called Draft Could Produce Run on Bats. It talks specifically about the age old Need vs BPA and how this is such a deep college pitching draft that teams might grab bats early. One executed said:
" [There's] a better chance of getting that [college] pitcher with your second pick than the bat you're looking to add," said one high-ranking executive, whose club is not alone in such a realization.
And:
"top guys, Appel, Gray, Stanek, Shipley, those guys, they aren't going to fall out of the first round, the senior scout opined. "Some of the second-tier guys that have first-round abilities ... they could drop if the bats start to go quickly and teams react to it."

While the Twins might he "stuck" taking a bat at 4 that doesn't mean they can't grab a college arm at 43. Last year after taking Buxton at two they went pitcher heavy and might do the same thing this year.

Link to article below:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9258106/with-much-dominant-young-pitching-mlb-focus-turned-bats-mlb

gunnarthor
05-09-2013, 11:19 AM
Well I certainly wouldn't mind if the Twins took someone like Ziomak in the 2nd round. Thanks for posting that.

cmb0252
05-10-2013, 09:58 AM
From Jim Callis' draft chat:

Who is likely to be there at 4 for the Twins and who do they take?
Jim Callis: Appel and Gray are almost certainly gone and San Diego 3B Kris Bryant probably won’t be there. I think the Twins take whoever they believe is the best pitcher left. In my mind, that would be Kohl Stewart.

cmb0252
05-11-2013, 11:37 AM
This is one of three weekends left before the draft for draft prospects to increase or decrease their stock. I will up date all the individual draft pages on Monday but here is a quick run down.
Good:
Manaea-11k, 1 ER outing
Bryant- 2-5, 1 HR
Moran- 1-2, 1 HR

Bad:
Appel-5 ER, 4/5 K/BB ratio

Ugly:
Shipley- 7 ER, 6/4 K/BB ratio

Also, Chris Anderson was average.

cmb0252
05-13-2013, 11:32 AM
Someone posted an interesting read over at minorleagueball.com named Everything you wanted to know about how your team drafts. It breaks down college vs hitters, pitchers vs hitters, and even positionally. It goes back 5 years which in the Twins case is perfect because that's when Johnson took over. Link below:

EVERYTHING you wanted to know about how your team drafts - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/12/4324614/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-how-your-team-drafts)

jay
05-13-2013, 01:26 PM
Someone posted an interesting read over at minorleagueball.com named Everything you wanted to know about how your team drafts. It breaks down college vs hitters, pitchers vs hitters, and even positionally. It goes back 5 years which in the Twins case is perfect because that's when Johnson took over. Link below:

EVERYTHING you wanted to know about how your team drafts - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/12/4324614/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-how-your-team-drafts)

Interesting stuff. Definitely shows an effort to get more pitching in the system. Twins have drafted the highest percentage of 'Arms' over the last 5 years. You can clearly see the preference for college over HS pitchers at an almost 8-to-1 rate. People blast the Twins' MI development, but they draft them right on par with the rates of other teams.

cmb0252
05-13-2013, 02:35 PM
Some other interesting thoughts about the numbers. The Twins only draft 29% of HS players in the first 5 rounds, 4th lowest in all of baseball, while taking college pitchers at almost a 10% higher amount than the next team. Also, if you are wondering who they will take in the 3rd round I can tell you one thing, its most likely going to be a college player seeing they have done that the last 5 years.

jay
05-14-2013, 10:42 AM
Also, if you are wondering who they will take in the 3rd round I can tell you one thing, its most likely going to be a college player seeing they have done that the last 5 years.

That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

nicksaviking
05-14-2013, 11:04 AM
That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

I agree, it was an interesting read but 5 years only shows a minor trend the sample size is just too small. Many factors could influnce who they take in the 3rd round. Perhaps through the second round other teams had been picking the bones of the HS players they still thought they could give a decent enough bonus to skip college and left some college players available the Twins were still really high on.

I could see some stratagy working in tandem with rounds one and two about picking guys who compliment the expected size of each others contract, but I'd think after round two it's a free-for-all unless there's a significant signability issue.

Twins Twerp
05-14-2013, 11:09 AM
That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

Causation vs. Correlation. Smoking does not CAUSE cancer. There is simply a CORRELATION between the two.

cmb0252
05-14-2013, 11:26 AM
That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

Oh, you are completely right. Clearly 5 as a sample size isn't a statistically accurate number but there are a few other reasons to think the Twins will take a college guy in the third round.

They take college guys at a 71% clip out of a 33 sample size. While the Twins have always preferred college arms to HS arms, last year they started using a strategy of drafting and converting college relief pitchers which increases the amount of college players taken. Several people around here in the know think the Twins are going to pile up on arms again like last year. With this being a deep draft in college arms it gives me little doubt that most likely the third round pick will be a kid.

As I say this, the Twins take BPA and if that's a HS kid in the third round they are taking him!

cmb0252
05-14-2013, 02:29 PM
Keith law put out an article today called Epic Shortstop Era comes in Focus. While the article is most about the current young shortstops in the bigs and in the minors there was this excerpt about the upcoming draft:

"This year's draft class offers an unfavorable omen that this run of good young shortstops might not last much longer. I have just one true shortstop in my top 50 draft prospects, Lakewood (Calif.) High School's J.P. Crawford, and he's a long-term project rather than a fast mover through the minors; I don't have a college shortstop who projects to stay at the position anywhere on my top 100."

Our greatest need is pitching which is a strength of this draft and MI help which might be the drafts weakest point. In a but shell, don't hold your breath for a SS in this upcoming draft.

jay
05-14-2013, 02:34 PM
Keith law put out an article today called Epic Shortstop Era comes in Focus. While the article is most about the current young shortstops in the bigs and in the minors there was this excerpt about the upcoming draft:

"This year's draft class offers an unfavorable omen that this run of good young shortstops might not last much longer. I have just one true shortstop in my top 50 draft prospects, Lakewood (Calif.) High School's J.P. Crawford, and he's a long-term project rather than a fast mover through the minors; I don't have a college shortstop who projects to stay at the position anywhere on my top 100."

Our greatest need is pitching which is a strength of this draft and MI help which might be the drafts weakest point. In a but shell, don't hold your breath for a SS in this upcoming draft.

Definitely a fan of loading up on more pitching in this draft. Maybe they can focus on MI on the Int'l market?

cmb0252
05-14-2013, 03:07 PM
Definitely a fan of loading up on more pitching in this draft. Maybe they can focus on MI on the Int'l market?

With the depth at college pitching and HS LHPing loading up on arms shouldn't be hard, even if they don't take an arm at #4. At this point I'm not sure if the Twins are linked to any international MI prospects but they sure as heck won't find any in the rule 4 draft. Hopefully a few guys we have like Levi, Eddy, and Mr.Polanco keep developing to fill the gap.

cmb0252
05-15-2013, 03:52 PM
From Jim callis' chat today:



Any chance one of Appel/Gray/Bryant fall to the Twins at #4? And is it automatic they take one of the 3 if they are available? If they are all gone, who is the #4 prospect available?

Jim Callis: There's a chance, especially because I could see the Rockies going for a pitcher at No. 3. And because the Twins want pitching, I don't think it's a lock that they'd take Bryant at No. 4. I don't see any way Appel or Gray get to Minnesota. If all three of those are gone, Clint Frazier is our highest-rated prospect and Kohl Stewart is our highest-rated pitcher.


If the draft were today: Manaea, Shipley or Stanek?

Jim Callis: I would take Shipley. Most athletic of that group, deepest repertoire of that group, most consistent season of that group. If you could guarantee that Manaea would turn back into the guys we saw in the Cape Cod League last summer, I'd take Manaea.

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 12:14 PM
From Laws chats today:

A few people have been saying Twins are thinking of taking Reese McGuire at 4 to save money and potentially get some harder to sign prospects later in the draft. I don't understand since they have a deep system. Wouldn't you rather add the best player at number 4?
Klaw (12:08 PM)


I've heard that as well, and I do know they like McGuire, but that would be a really poor use of the pick with Kohl Stewart on the board.

Who do you honestly think the Twins will take at 4? Hopefully they dont make a deal with mcguire but that sounds like a Twins move.
Klaw (12:55 PM)


Stewart. Their scouting director has seen him at least three times including Monday. And they want power arms.

amjgt
05-16-2013, 12:42 PM
Also, from Law's mock draft today, he mentioned the possibility (small one) of the Astros not taking Gray or Appel

"There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics."

Don't get my hopes up Mr Law.

gunnarthor
05-16-2013, 01:11 PM
Also, from Law's mock draft today, he mentioned the possibility (small one) of the Astros not taking Gray or Appel

"There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics."

Don't get my hopes up Mr Law.

Wow, that would be great. Cubs grab Appel. Rockies remain in love with Bryant and we get Gray. I'd be really ok with that.

cmb0252
05-16-2013, 01:32 PM
Wow, that would be great. Cubs grab Appel. Rockies remain in love with Bryant and we get Gray. I'd be really ok with that.


Let's not get our hopes up. Rockies biggest need is pitching too so if some how the Astros are dumb enough to pass on an arm I doubt the Rockies do. Unless there is an injury I put the chances of Appel or Gray to the Twins at under 5%.

diehardtwinsfan
05-16-2013, 06:59 PM
seems to me that if the Astros are going to rock the boat, they take HS talent to fit in with the guys they have... I'd think Stewart would be a better pick for them... Same upside as Appel/Gray, but a bit further away and more in line with what they have... I could see him going a couple million under slot too. They could use that to entice other HS guys.

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 08:04 PM
Mayo released two articles about the Astros and how they are getting ready for the draft. The first article is about them getting ready to have draft work outs and had this interesting line:
"
This is something in St. Louis we had a lot of success with, and a lot of the later kids [drafted] were kids who attended the workouts," Elias said. "They weren't drafted high or for a significant amount of money, but they got in front of Jeff and the crosscheckers and brought some extra attention to themselves prior to the Draft and put themselves more firmly in our mind on Draft day. When you're staring at the board, you can put a face to the magnet and have a clearer picture of who the player was. It really helps those players get drafted and helps us make better decisions in the Draft."

The second article is about Jim Crane, owner of the Astros, going to an Astros game after personally scouting UNC college game.
Luhnow said it was the first time Crane had been out in person this year to watch potential Draft targets. The Astros have the No. 1 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2013/index.jsp) on June 6. Luhnow wouldn't say which player they were watching, but North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran is a top prospect.
"We don't comment on Draft-eligible players for obvious reasons, but we continue to put in a lot of time against it, and it was great Jim was willing to go out and see a player with his own eyes," Luhnow said. "We might try another couple before it's all said and done."
Crane was a standout college pitcher at Central Missouri State, so he provides anything but the layman's eye.
Articles below:
http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130519&content_id=47986054&notebook_id=47986774&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

Astros to hold first Draft workout on Sunday | astros.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130518&content_id=47921802&notebook_id=47926510&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou)

Brodin4Calder
05-19-2013, 09:13 PM
Mayo released two articles about the Astros and how they are getting ready for the draft. The first article is about them getting ready to have draft work outs and had this interesting line:
"
This is something in St. Louis we had a lot of success with, and a lot of the later kids [drafted] were kids who attended the workouts," Elias said. "They weren't drafted high or for a significant amount of money, but they got in front of Jeff and the crosscheckers and brought some extra attention to themselves prior to the Draft and put themselves more firmly in our mind on Draft day. When you're staring at the board, you can put a face to the magnet and have a clearer picture of who the player was. It really helps those players get drafted and helps us make better decisions in the Draft."

The second article is about Jim Crane, owner of the Astros, going to an Astros game after personally scouting UNC college game.
Luhnow said it was the first time Crane had been out in person this year to watch potential Draft targets. The Astros have the No. 1 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2013/index.jsp) on June 6. Luhnow wouldn't say which player they were watching, but North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran is a top prospect.
"We don't comment on Draft-eligible players for obvious reasons, but we continue to put in a lot of time against it, and it was great Jim was willing to go out and see a player with his own eyes," Luhnow said. "We might try another couple before it's all said and done."
Crane was a standout college pitcher at Central Missouri State, so he provides anything but the layman's eye.
Articles below:
http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130519&content_id=47986054&notebook_id=47986774&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

Astros to hold first Draft workout on Sunday | astros.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130518&content_id=47921802&notebook_id=47926510&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou)

Maybe HOU takes Moran and COL had already made up their minds about taking Bryant so Gray or Appel drops to the Twins? Could happen, everyone thought HOU was gonna take Appel last year or atleast Buxton but they made a deal and could do the same this year with Moran. Its highly unlikely but it would be awesome to get Gray or Appel.

beckmt
05-19-2013, 09:48 PM
Consider it very unlikely

Jeremy Nygaard
05-19-2013, 09:52 PM
My guess is this is a ploy to drive the price of #1 down. Everybody expected to be selected before Moran stands to make less money if he goes first. Same with Twins and McGuire.

Brodin4Calder
05-19-2013, 10:01 PM
From Laws chats today:

A few people have been saying Twins are thinking of taking Reese McGuire at 4 to save money and potentially get some harder to sign prospects later in the draft. I don't understand since they have a deep system. Wouldn't you rather add the best player at number 4?
Klaw (12:08 PM)




I've heard that as well, and I do know they like McGuire, but that would be a really poor use of the pick with Kohl Stewart on the board.

Who do you honestly think the Twins will take at 4? Hopefully they dont make a deal with mcguire but that sounds like a Twins move.
Klaw (12:55 PM)




Stewart. Their scouting director has seen him at least three times including Monday. And they want power arms.


That 2nd question was me, ha.

Brodin4Calder
05-19-2013, 10:10 PM
With HOU hiring Reid Ryan as their president a few days ago theres no way they dont take Appel or Gray, he even said that pitching was the key to winning. Maybe his dad could play on the team?

cmb0252
05-19-2013, 10:46 PM
With HOU hiring Reid Ryan as their president a few days ago theres no way they dont take Appel or Gray, he even said that pitching was the key to winning. Maybe his dad could play on the team?

Ryan's dominating Texas baseball!

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 11:44 AM
I'm too lazy to update every players thread with stat updates so I will just do it here.

The Good:
Chris Anderson: 10 innings, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB ratio
Ryan Stanek: 7.2 innings, 0 ER, 4/4 K/BB ratio
Manaea: 5.2 innings, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB ratio (was on a pitch count)
Moran: 10 Abs, 4 hits (one 3B), 4 RBIs
Shipley: 7 innings, 0 ER, 10/1 k/bb

The bad:
Appel: 7 innings, 4 ER, 11/1 k/bb
Gray: 6.1 innings, 4 ER, 3/1 k/bb

The Ugly:
Wahl, Williams, and Blair (aka college arms trying to stay in the first round)

Christopher Crawford notes a scout had this to say about Shipley:

He was impressive,” said an NL East scout. “This was the guy we saw in March, the guy with a mid-90’s fastball and plus-plus change who attacked hitters and missed bats. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s as good as any pitcher not named Appel in this class.”

gunnarthor
05-20-2013, 12:05 PM
I think Shipley could be a dark horse pick for us at #4 (assuming Gray, Appel and Bryant are off the board). He meets a lot of the criteria the Twins like - good control, good change up, good fastball. Not a Boras guy. College arm. I wouldn't be surprised if it came down to him and the HS arm in Stewart.

mike wants wins
05-20-2013, 12:07 PM
I could see that also, gunnarthor. Shipley and Manaea are doing their best (heck, maybe Stanek) to challenge to move back into the top 5.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 12:22 PM
Present and future scouting grades for this years top 5 college pitchers via Jonathan Mayo and Keith Law.

Mark Appel
Fastball: 70/80 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law)
Slider: 50/60 (Mayo) 60/65 (Law)
Change up: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law)
Control: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)

Jonathan Gray
Fastball: 70/80 (Mayo) 80/80 (Law)
Slider: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law)
Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/55 (Law)
Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 60/60 (Law)

Sean Manaea
Fastball: 60/60 (Mayo) 50/55 (Law)
Slider: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/50 (Law)
Change up: 50/60 (Mayo) 50/50 (Law)
Control: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)

Ryan Stanek:
Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/60 (Law)
Slider: 40/55 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)
Curve ball: 40/60 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law)
Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)

Braden Shipley
Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/70 (Law)
Curve ball: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law)
Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)
Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)

Interesting comparisons. They are different on a lot of these. Just goes to show scouting isn't an exact science.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 12:35 PM
Matt Garrioch over at minorleagueball released his 2013 draft players with signability concerns list. With the Twins having the 43 pick there is a chance that most of these guys will be there and if they Twins like them will have to decide if they are worth the risk.

Several names of interest:
Kohl Stewart which he puts 2% chance of not signing
Logan Shore which he puts at 50% chance he won't sign
Ryan Boldt which he puts at a 40% chance he won't sign
And my personal favorite:
Kyle Serrano which he puts at a 50% chance he won't sign.

There are a ton of talented prep arms on the list. Full article below:

2013 MLB Draft: Players With Signability Questions - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/20/4344286/2013-mlb-draft-players-with-signability-questions)

gunnarthor
05-20-2013, 01:23 PM
Braden Shipley
Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/70 (Law)
Curve ball: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law)
Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)
Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)

Interesting comparisons. They are different on a lot of these. Just goes to show scouting isn't an exact science.

Thanks for posting that, cmb. Going off the old grading system at minor league ball, Mayo sees Shipley as a solid #3 type while Law thinks he could be a #2. But, and this is probably the most important to me, both think he has enough pitches to remain a starter. I'm a bit surprised to see all those 40s and 50s for all those guys. I thought some of them had questions about whether or not they had a 3rd pitch to make it as a starter (Stanek).

mike wants wins
05-20-2013, 01:35 PM
It goes to show BPA is not so obvious, imo.

maxisagod
05-20-2013, 01:36 PM
Thanks for posting that, cmb. Going off the old grading system at minor league ball, Mayo sees Shipley as a solid #3 type while Law thinks he could be a #2. But, and this is probably the most important to me, both think he has enough pitches to remain a starter. I'm a bit surprised to see all those 40s and 50s for all those guys. I thought some of them had questions about whether or not they had a 3rd pitch to make it as a starter (Stanek).

What is it, 45 is average? A pitcher with 2 pitches is more of a reliever, A guy with just a bunch of 50's is a... Hendricks. So 3 pitches at 60 or higher would be #2 stuff?

gunnarthor
05-20-2013, 01:48 PM
What is it, 45 is average? A pitcher with 2 pitches is more of a reliever, A guy with just a bunch of 50's is a... Hendricks. So 3 pitches at 60 or higher would be #2 stuff?

A #2 would be two plus pitches and an average third one.

Here's a decent link to what scouts mean by #1, 2 etc: Defining 1-2-3-4-5 Starters - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters). It's based on scouting, not nec results. Other websites - baseball prospectus for instance - have similar definitions, if you can find the articles. It's not perfect but it's a decent start.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 01:58 PM
It goes to show BPA is not so obvious, imo.

While this very true for fans but for front offices it is not. They are not looking at Law's or BA's or Mayo's prospect grades but their own. They pay area scouts, regional scouts, cross checkers, and front office people to make sure they get it right. Do they always get it right? Clearly not but once again, this isn't an exact science.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 02:04 PM
What is it, 45 is average? A pitcher with 2 pitches is more of a reliever, A guy with just a bunch of 50's is a... Hendricks. So 3 pitches at 60 or higher would be #2 stuff?

50 is average. Gunnarthor's link is a pretty good article to help understand the grading system. You are pretty close with your examples but the one thing I would point out is that actual scouts grade on more than just 3 pitches/control. While I didn't post all of Law's grades, Mayo only had the basics, Law also has fastball movement, command (different than control), and feel for pitching in his grades. All these and much more can make and break a pitcher.

mike wants wins
05-20-2013, 02:27 PM
While this very true for fans but for front offices it is not. They are not looking at Law's or BA's or Mayo's prospect grades but their own. They pay area scouts, regional scouts, cross checkers, and front office people to make sure they get it right. Do they always get it right? Clearly not but once again, this isn't an exact science.

Given that most scouts only see guys in their region, I'd think it is even less an exact science than we would think from the outside. This is not, I'd guess, like the NFL or NBA.

cmb0252
05-20-2013, 02:41 PM
Given that most scouts only see guys in their region, I'd think it is even less an exact science than we would think from the outside. This is not, I'd guess, like the NFL or NBA.

Jeremy's interview with Sean Johnson paints a pretty good picture. As he said everyone has the same guys in the top 90-100 in some order for the most part. Around late third round is when you start getting your surprises, as you said, because most scouts only see regional guys. Whoever the Twins take at 4 will be well scouted.

mike wants wins
05-20-2013, 02:49 PM
Oh, I agree with that.....the top players are well scouted.....

cmb0252
05-22-2013, 04:13 PM
Jim Callis did his weekly chat and here are the questions where he mentioned the Twins.


Is Frazier or Meadows more likely to end up with the Twins at #4?

Jim Callis: Sorry, another phone call, but I'm back ... Really don't think either is in the mix for the Twins. If Minnesota takes a HS bat, it will be Reese McGuire.


Twins have to go BPA at #4 (I don't see the Reese McGuire as smart, or likely) if that's true, is Kohl Stewart likely to sign if taken that high? Recent tweets from him suggest he's excited for Texas A &M, but is that just agent-inspired? Also, is his stuff that much better than Trey Ball, or Braden Shipley as the "best pitcher available" or should the Twins grab Clint Frazier?

Jim Callis: Agree on best player available. Stewart will sign, the football talk is leverage, he's not going to turn down millions to go to Texas A&M to sit behind Johnny Manziel. Once scouting director told me Stewart's stuff is as good as Gray and Appel's, and he's more athletic. Clear No. 3 pitcher in draft for me, and more upside than any of them.


Kiley McDaniel tweets that there is real momentum to Colin Moran going #1 to Houston. How would this affect the picks following it?

Jim Callis: I can't really see Moran going 1-1. But if he did, it might mean that one of Gray or Appel would get to the Twins at 4, Stewart would get to the Red Sox at 7 and both Frazier and Meadows could fall out of the top 10.

Not Draft related:
Do you think Byron Buxton could be the # 1 prospect in baseball by the end of the year ?
Jim Callis: Yes ... I appear to have shifted into lightning-round mode. Still have 125+ unread questions in the queue, will try to plow through some more.

InfraRen
05-22-2013, 04:24 PM
Good stuff from Callis. I like his opinion on Stewart. I'm leaning towards him if this Moran #1 thing doesn't happen and send one of the "Big 3" our way.

cmb0252
05-22-2013, 04:39 PM
Jason Churchill and Christopher Crawford put out Targets for 2013 Draft articles today. Yes, they are insider but here is what they said about the Twins.

Draft Strategy:
The Twins have been all over the board in recent years, taking collegians Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers and Levi Michael in the first round over the past four drafts. Along the way, however, they have mixed in upside high school picks, including Buxton at No. 2 overall a year ago. This draft has three players (Mark Appel (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19335/mark-appel), Jonathan Gray (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19305/jonathan-gray) andKris Bryant (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19311/kris-bryant)) who are considered a cut above the rest, so the Twins could go in any number of directions at No. 4

Possible fits were listed as Stewart, McGuire, and Meadows. This is what they said about Stewart:

Stewart would fill the biggest need in the organization -- high-upside talent on the mound -- and he brings big-time athleticism to the table suggesting, having earned a scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M. The signing bonus he could at No. 4 would probably prevent him from setting foot on the college gridiron.

List of article here:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9285245/american-league-central-team-needs-targets-2013-mlb-draft

InfraRen
05-22-2013, 07:19 PM
Yup. Stewart is my pick if the Big 3 are gone - good read!

cmb0252
05-23-2013, 03:30 PM
Think the Twins need pitchers in the upcoming draft?Want to know the best pitchers in the draft?or those of you playing catch up john Sickels released a pretty good article about the Key Pitchers in the 2013 draft. Link below:

MLB 2013 draft: Key pitchers to know - SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/5/23/4358822/mlb-2013-draft-key-pitchers-to-know)

cmb0252
05-23-2013, 04:13 PM
BA released a best tool list for the 2013 Mlb draft. Here it is:
Best Tools: 2013 Draft - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/best-tools-2013-draft/)

InfraRen
05-25-2013, 11:56 AM
Say the Twins take Kohl Stewart (or another pitcher) at #4: if Ryan Boldt gets past the first round (because of injury) I'd be in favor of picking him in the 2nd. Obviously they'd have to know if he'd sign or not but I feel the home-state team would have a better shot at getting him to. Kid is a legit five tool guy. Probably wont develop a lot of power, but sounds like he's a devoted/diligent worker so who knows.

Saw Thrylos pine for Hunter Dozier there too, that'd also be a mighty fine pick.

MNRebel
05-26-2013, 11:43 AM
Been a follower of Twins Daily since the beginning, but I had to register to post my thanks to all of you that have made this up-coming draft so interesting. Your knowledge of amateur baseball is greatly appreciated and I can't wait to get down to Cedar Rapids again to see our shiny new toy. We're gonna win Twins!

cmb0252
05-26-2013, 12:37 PM
Say the Twins take Kohl Stewart (or another pitcher) at #4: if Ryan Boldt gets past the first round (because of injury) I'd be in favor of picking him in the 2nd. Obviously they'd have to know if he'd sign or not but I feel the home-state team would have a better shot at getting him to. Kid is a legit five tool guy. Probably wont develop a lot of power, but sounds like he's a devoted/diligent worker so who knows.

Saw Thrylos pine for Hunter Dozier there too, that'd also be a mighty fine pick.

Welcome to the forums! Its a great group here and I'm glad you have enjoyed the draft coverage. Last years draft brought in a ton of talent so hopefully this one will too.

InfraRen
05-26-2013, 11:31 PM
@DarrenWolfson: #MNTwins are bringing players into town for looks before the Draft. One coming, per a source: HS LHP Hunter Green. He'd be in mix at No. 43.

beckmt
05-27-2013, 11:32 AM
I would also like the Twins to take a chance on Stewart if the top 3 are gone. We need swing and miss pitching and this kid could be special.

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 12:45 PM
A few draft notes from Christopher crawford:

Gray went 9 innings, 3 hits, 12/1 k/bb ratio. Note from a scout:
"It was impressive,” an AL scout said. “When you throw as hard as he does and then come back with a slider like that, it really isn’t fair. The last couple of weeks he struggled to finish off hitters, but that obviously wasn’t the case today. If the changeup gets anywhere near the level the other two pitches get, then you have a special prospect. But he’s pretty darn good without it.”

Appel went 8 innings, 1 ER, 3 hits, 9/1 k/bb ratio: note from an NL scout
“I’m glad his year is over, to be honest with you,” an NL Scout said. “There really isn’t anything more to learn about the guy. I’m sure as a competitor he’d love to be out there playing in the tournament but there’s nothing left for him to prove, he’s the most complete pitcher in this class and it isn’t particularly close.”

Manaea didn't pitch this week but here is the note from a scout:
"He’s not a first round prospect to me,” an NL scout said. “I don’t see how he can be. When you’re fastball is sitting mid 80’s a couple of weeks ago with a 45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) slider and 50 change, that’s a back end starter. I’m not taking a back end starter in the first thirty picks.”

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 12:48 PM
Oh, and another not from Christopher Crawford:

Bryant had a good weekend 3 walks, HR, double and a few hits. Here is what a NL scout had to say:
"I’ve said all year that it’s not just about Bryant’s power,” an NL West scout told me. “Obviously that’s the standout tool, but he’s not a one note guy. Does he get pitched around? Of course, but a lot of hitters will get frustrated by that and get too aggressive. That hasn’t been the case for him. I think he’s got star potential in his bat.”

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 01:28 PM
@DarrenWolfson: #MNTwins are bringing players into town for looks before the Draft. One coming, per a source: HS LHP Hunter Green. He'd be in mix at No. 43.

Kieth Law has Green ranked 51 and here is what he has to say about him:
Green has been wildly inconsistent this year, looking like a first-rounder some outings and a borderline prospect in others, making him a sort of lottery pick where if your number comes up, you get an elite prospect.
He has been up to 95 mph this spring (and sometimes has pitched in the 80s), with 90-93 more typical, showing good two-seam life on the pitch. His changeup flashes above-average at 80-82 with hard fading action, while his breaking ball is slurvy at 75-80, sometimes a true curve with some two-plane action, but often just flipped out of his hand for an easy chase pitch against high school hitters. His delivery is a little rough, drifting off the rubber early, with a moderate stride and some occasional head violence, but he turns his arm over early and finishes well out front.
He is extremely projectable, and a lefty with this kind of room to fill out who has already shown plus velocity is very intriguing, but he'll need to throw more strikes and develop that breaking ball further.

righty8383
05-27-2013, 01:52 PM
You're doing a hell of of a job cmb. Lots of good info here. Just wanted to say that...

cmb0252
05-27-2013, 03:56 PM
You're doing a hell of of a job cmb. Lots of good info here. Just wanted to say that...

Thanks! Glad I can help. I enjoy following the draft and the Twins minor leagues so I figured I would post some information this year. Seeing the talent the Twins added last year via the draft makes me excited knowing they can do it again this year.

70charger
05-27-2013, 04:22 PM
Thanks! Glad I can help. I enjoy following the draft and the Twins minor leagues so I figured I would post some information this year. Seeing the talent the Twins added last year via the draft makes me excited knowing they can do it again this year.

You really are doing a good job. With all the overt negativity around here lately, it's nice to get some posts with reasoned analysis. So thank you.

InfraRen
05-28-2013, 02:29 PM
Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)4m (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/339462257975111680)
The precise date the #MNTwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash) are bringing HS LHP Hunter Green (& possibly other draft prospects) into town for a look is next Monday.

cmb0252
05-28-2013, 02:37 PM
Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)4m (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/339462257975111680)
The precise date the #MNTwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash) are bringing HS LHP Hunter Green (& possibly other draft prospects) into town for a look is next Monday.

Talent wise Green fits perfectly in at 43rd pick range. Have seen him on draft boards from 31-54. The biggest question I have is IF the Twins take Stewart at #4 would the front office take two HS pitchers in a row? Out of their last 5 drafts they have only taken 2 HS pitchers out of their 33 picks in the top 5 rounds. This draft is flushed with HS arms so I hope they do.

InfraRen
05-28-2013, 02:41 PM
Talent wise Green fits perfectly in at 43rd pick range. Have seen him on draft boards from 31-54. The biggest question I have is IF the Twins take Stewart at #4 would the front office take two HS pitchers in a row? Out of their last 5 drafts they have only taken 2 HS pitchers out of their 33 picks in the top 5 rounds. This draft is flushed with HS arms so I hope they do.

:D

I then asked him about Twins potential interest in Ryan Boldt at 43 if he fell:

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson 1m

@InfraRen Not sure he lasts until No. 43. ... I think the Twins go pitcher and catcher or pitcher and pitcher w/ first two picks.

cmb0252
05-28-2013, 02:51 PM
:D

I then asked him about Twins potential interest in Ryan Boldt at 43 if he fell:

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson 1m
@InfraRen Not sure he lasts until No. 43. ... I think the Twins go pitcher and catcher or pitcher and pitcher w/ first two picks.



Nice! Pitcher/pitcher would be solid with how this draft class is setting up.

mike wants wins
05-28-2013, 02:55 PM
Talent wise Green fits perfectly in at 43rd pick range. Have seen him on draft boards from 31-54. The biggest question I have is IF the Twins take Stewart at #4 would the front office take two HS pitchers in a row? Out of their last 5 drafts they have only taken 2 HS pitchers out of their 33 picks in the top 5 rounds. This draft is flushed with HS arms so I hope they do.

Should have taken HS arms last year, instead of injured college relief pitchers......let's hope they learned their lesson.

InfraRen
05-28-2013, 03:03 PM
Yeah, I'd be pretty dang overjoyed with a Kohl Stewart and Hunter Green as our first two picks. Maybe then we could take Royal Blue in the 3rd.

cmb0252
05-28-2013, 03:47 PM
Article about who Green is visiting. Includes Rangers/Rays who both have multiple late 1st round picks and Atalanta.

Green working out for pro teams this week - Bowling Green Daily News: Sports (http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/green-working-out-for-pro-teams-this-week/article_d65a3a2e-278a-5230-a639-cf606b984836.html)

Einstein
05-28-2013, 06:20 PM
Article about who Green is visiting. Includes Rangers/Rays who both have multiple late 1st round picks and Atalanta.

Green working out for pro teams this week - Bowling Green Daily News: Sports (http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/green-working-out-for-pro-teams-this-week/article_d65a3a2e-278a-5230-a639-cf606b984836.html)110 strikeouts and a 0.14 ERA in 51 2/3. A fastball that can reach mid 90's. Left-handed. I'm not sure that Green will make it to the Twins in round 2. I'd love it if he did.

InfraRen
05-28-2013, 06:29 PM
Tweet exchange between me and Kiley McDaniel today:

Andrew Renny‏@InfraRen

@kileymcd we know Kohl Stewart in 1st, but any non-1st rounders that the Twins are looking at? (Boldt, H.Green?)
Kiley McDaniel‏@kileymcd3

@InfraRen Boldt obviously and Logan Shore as they like to know local kids better than other clubs. Luis Guillorme too.

I haven't researched Shore/Guillorme at all yet - will, but anyone got any intel on them?

howieramone
05-28-2013, 06:40 PM
Should have taken HS arms last year, instead of injured college relief pitchers......let's hope they learned their lesson.

Why? Early returns are they are quite pleased. You honestly believe they deliberately drafted injured players?

InfraRen
05-28-2013, 07:10 PM
Tweet exchange between me and Kiley McDaniel today:

Andrew Renny‏@InfraRen

Kiley McDaniel‏@kileymcd3


I haven't researched Shore/Guillorme at all yet - will, but anyone got any intel on them?

Did a little bit of digging, based on BA's top 500:



199
Logan Shore, rhp, Coon Rapids (Minn.) HS





218
Luis Guillorme, ss, Coral Springs (Fla.) HS

rickyhawaii
05-28-2013, 08:32 PM
Shore seems pretty locked in to go to Florida. MLBtraderumors.com had a post that the Twins won't be drafting Shore in the second round. Maybe Shore will fall past the 10th round and the Twins can draft and try to sign like Malinowski.

One prospect i like but haven't heard too much ravings about is HS OF Jordan Paroubeck. He's got really quick bat speed, he's a switch hitter and his swing looks the same from both sides of the plate. His dad and Barry Bonds were HS buddies and Paroubeck's gotten private lessons..(hopefully not on juicing). Paroubeck is committed to fresno state. he's on Mayo's top 100

30whales
05-29-2013, 12:16 AM
What do you think of the Twins drafting LJ Mazzilli again?

InfraRen
05-29-2013, 08:34 AM
Charley Walters: Minnesota Twins don't always draft for need (see Byron Buxton)

By Charley Walters
[email protected]
Posted: 05/28/2013 12:01:00 AM CDT
Updated: 05/28/2013 11:29:11 PM CDT


http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site569/2013/0528/20130528__130529BUXTON_400.jpg (http://www.twincities.com/portlet/article/html/imageDisplay.jsp?contentItemRelationshipId=5167182 )
Byron Buxton, shown playing in high school in 2011, is hitting .324 at Class A Cedar Rapids this season. (AP Photo/Appling County High School)


The major league baseball amateur draft begins in nine days, on June 6, and lasts through June 9. The Twins have the No. 4 overall pick and need pitching.

"Last year, we needed pitching," said Twins vice president for player personnel Mike Radcliff, who oversees the draft. But last year, the Twins had the No. 2 overall pick and drafted high school outfielder Byron Buxton.

"At this moment, I'm pretty sure we took what many people thought was something we didn't need, a center fielder," Radcliff said. "I think (Buxton's) off to such a start that people believe he's going to be a really, really good player."

That's a good bet. Buxton, 19, through 48 games at Class A Cedar Rapids is hitting .324 with 11 doubles, five triples and seven home runs and is expected to be promoted to the more accelerated Class A at Fort Myers before long.

But, Radcliff admits, the Twins still need pitching. "I'm sure we'll address pitching overall," he said. "But will it be with the first pick? That's a little hard to say. We're going to try to pick who we think is the best guy available when it's our turn."

Signing Buxton at No. 2 cost the Twins a $6 million bonus. At No. 4 this year, Major League Baseball has slotted nearly $4 million for that pick's signing bonus.

There are several elite pitchers available for next week's draft, and it's no secret who they are: right-handers Jonathan Gray from Oklahoma, Mark Appel from Stanford and high schooler Kohl Stewart from Houston.

But there also are a couple of power-hitting third basemen -- Kris Bryant from San Diego and Colin Moran from North Carolina. It'll be surprising if the Twins' top pick isn't from those five prospects. "We don't have an exact name; we're down to a certain group of names," Radcliff said. "We've got to take the best player. We'll get a good player to pick at No. 4 and another one at 43."

The Twins also will have the No. 78 pick.

I think BPA and need align perfectly, and that Kohl Stewart will be the pick.

Whole article: http://www.twincities.com/news/ci_23336471

gunnarthor
05-29-2013, 09:14 AM
Yeah, unless something wacky happens - Astros throwing a curve ball or Stewart getting hurt before the draft - I think he's the pick.

I admit I don't know that much about Stewart. Does anyone know if he's considered a potentially fast moving prospect like Berrios or does he need to learn control/command and still grow into his body?

InfraRen
05-29-2013, 09:20 AM
Yeah, unless something wacky happens - Astros throwing a curve ball or Stewart getting hurt before the draft - I think he's the pick.

I admit I don't know that much about Stewart. Does anyone know if he's considered a potentially fast moving prospect like Berrios or does he need to learn control/command and still grow into his body?

He'll be slower than Berrios almost certainly. I've seen numerous times that right now, he's a "thrower" and needs to learn to pitch - but has the pitches/frame/skills to be every bit as good ceiling-wise as Appel/Gray.

With that said, he's further away obviously - needs to develop, but scouts encouraged by his build that he's not as much of a risk for an injury as some skinny high schoolers.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-29-2013, 09:22 AM
Yeah, unless something wacky happens - Astros throwing a curve ball or Stewart getting hurt before the draft - I think he's the pick.

I admit I don't know that much about Stewart. Does anyone know if he's considered a potentially fast moving prospect like Berrios or does he need to learn control/command and still grow into his body?

Stewart is next in the draft preview series.

fairweather
05-29-2013, 09:34 AM
No to Stewart. No to Mcguire

fairweather
05-29-2013, 09:37 AM
Here's some things to know about Stewart, he's a cocky red neck Texan punk with diabetes. Ya the Twins should really risk their #4 overall pick on that!

ashburyjohn
05-29-2013, 09:53 AM
Here's some things to know about Stewart, he's a cocky red neck Texan punk with diabetes. Ya the Twins should really risk their #4 overall pick on that!

Give Nolan Ryan diabetes and I might still take a chance on him. I have no idea where Ryan resided on your neck-color spectrum at that age, however.

mike wants wins
05-29-2013, 09:55 AM
So he's a cross between Roger Clemens and Ty Cobb? Yuck.

diehardtwinsfan
05-29-2013, 10:34 AM
Here's some things to know about Stewart, he's a cocky red neck Texan punk with diabetes. Ya the Twins should really risk their #4 overall pick on that!

Is this a new alias for Dankind?

In all seriousness, we get that you don't like Stewart. Can you provide somethign concrete other than that he's a red neck and cocky? That description fits most baseball players.

Willihammer
05-29-2013, 10:42 AM
Give Nolan Ryan diabetes and I might still take a chance on him. I have no idea where Ryan resided on your neck-color spectrum at that age, however.

Reasonably red?

ashburyjohn
05-29-2013, 11:35 AM
So he's a cross between Roger Clemens and Ty Cobb? Yuck.

Yeah, those guys never won any pennants.

InfraRen
05-29-2013, 11:37 AM
4216

cmb0252
05-29-2013, 01:43 PM
Interesting article from ESPN on the last time each AL team drafted an All-Star. Spoiler alert.... We have the second longest time since we drafted one....

Minnesota Twins (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins): Evan Meek (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28934/evan-meek) (2002)
Joe Mauer (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5378/joe-mauer) was drafted first overall in 2001 and since then has been a draft spell as cold as a Minnesota winter. That's how you go from six division titles in nine years to back-to-back seasons of 99 and 96 losses. That's also the price you pay when you spend a decade never drafting higher than 14th. Meek was actually released by the Twins before making the All-Star team as the Pirates' rep in 2010

Full article below:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/36350/last-time-each-al-team-drafted-an-all-star

mike wants wins
05-29-2013, 01:50 PM
So ESPN thinks maybe the drafting has something to do with being bad the last few years.....who would have gotten Meek correct in a trivia question? Not me.

cmb0252
05-29-2013, 05:44 PM
Crawfish boxes ( Astros SB Nation blog) released an article named Where have past aces been drafted which made for an interesting read. While their definition of ace is very strict there were a few things I found interesting. One of their bloggers did a study, don't have a link to the study, but it says college bats have the best rate-on-return for 1st rounders. While that isn't really surprising what is though is this fact:

"my results actually showed that IF High School pitchers reached the major leagues, they were the most likely to perform at an elite level — even more likely than College Hitters, if I recall. The hang-up is that High School pitchers are the least likely to make the major leagues at all, and it’s not close." Chris Perry

Link below:
2013 MLB Draft: Where have past ace pitchers been drafted? - The Crawfish Boxes (http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/5/29/4373574/2013-mlb-draft-developing-drafting-ace-pitchers)

gunnarthor
05-29-2013, 07:59 PM
Crawfish boxes ( Astros SB Nation blog) released an article named Where have past aces been drafted which made for an interesting read. While their definition of ace is very strict there were a few things I found interesting. One of their bloggers did a study, don't have a link to the study, but it says college bats have the best rate-on-return for 1st rounders. While that isn't really surprising what is though is this fact:

"my results actually showed that IF High School pitchers reached the major leagues, they were the most likely to perform at an elite level — even more likely than College Hitters, if I recall. The hang-up is that High School pitchers are the least likely to make the major leagues at all, and it’s not close." Chris Perry

Link below:
2013 MLB Draft: Where have past ace pitchers been drafted? - The Crawfish Boxes (http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/5/29/4373574/2013-mlb-draft-developing-drafting-ace-pitchers)

Thanks for posting that. I suppose the reason for that is that the elite HS arms can make a lot more money right away rather than going to school and risking their livelihood (with a few exceptions). So college arms wouldn't generally have the same ceiling.

InfraRen
05-30-2013, 09:43 AM
On Ryan Boldt - the (him) is Radcliff I believe:

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)37s (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/340115588640808961)
@InfraRen (https://twitter.com/InfraRen) @PBbboese (https://twitter.com/PBbboese) Might be able to glean more after talking w/ him today. Best guess: Twins don't take him at No. 43 (if he's even there).

Oxtung
05-30-2013, 02:27 PM
Crawfish boxes ( Astros SB Nation blog) released an article named Where have past aces been drafted which made for an interesting read. While their definition of ace is very strict there were a few things I found interesting. One of their bloggers did a study, don't have a link to the study, but it says college bats have the best rate-on-return for 1st rounders. While that isn't really surprising what is though is this fact:

"my results actually showed that IF High School pitchers reached the major leagues, they were the most likely to perform at an elite level ó even more likely than College Hitters, if I recall. The hang-up is that High School pitchers are the least likely to make the major leagues at all, and itís not close." Chris Perry

Link below:
2013 MLB Draft: Where have past ace pitchers been drafted? - The Crawfish Boxes (http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/5/29/4373574/2013-mlb-draft-developing-drafting-ace-pitchers)

I'm not sure where that quote came from because it's not in the article that I could find, however it somewhat contradicts Matt Garrioch's study of drafts from '87-'01. Garrioch's study showed that HS LHP taken in the first round were extremely unlikely to be solid or better MLB players with only 20% attaining that level of competence while close to 60% never made the majors at all. On the other hand HS RHP were just as likely, actually slightly more likely, to be solid regulars or better than their 4yr college counter parts.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2Iz MTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US


edit: Those stats are for 1st round draft choices only not including the supplemental round.

cmb0252
05-30-2013, 03:01 PM
I'm not sure where that quote came from because it's not in the article that I could find, however it somewhat contradicts Matt Garrioch's study of drafts from '87-'01. Garrioch's study showed that HS LHP taken in the first round were extremely unlikely to be solid or better MLB players with only 20% attaining that level of competence while close to 60% never made the majors at all. On the other hand HS RHP were just as likely, actually slightly more likely, to be solid regulars or better than their 4yr college counter parts.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2Iz MTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US


edit: Those stats are for 1st round draft choices only not including the supplemental round.

The quote comes from the comment section where the author of the study responds. Sorry about that, I should have made that clearer.

cmb0252
05-30-2013, 03:58 PM
Christopher Crawford did a mini interview over at the U.S.S Mariner blog and here are a few of the interesting questions/answers.

How do you think this draft class stacks up with other recent years’? Last year, you mentioned that the 2012 class was a step behind 2011 and 2010′s…do you still think that’s the case? Overall, do you think talent evaluators are able to forecast this (draft class quality) reliably? Or is it something that can only be judged in hindsight?

It’s a case of quality or quantity. The top five prospects in this class are really good, with two future aces in Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray, a plus-plus power hitter in Kris Bryant who I think can play third base, a pitcher with two 70 pitches in Kohl Stewart and a very intriguing athlete in Meadows. After that, the quality wanes quite a bit, with very little available in terms of college bats and not a single left-handed starter who will go in the first round assuming Sean Manaea’s injuries push him out.As far as judging this class accurately, I think it’s an interesting question. This was the year of the pop-up; Gray was considered more of a second-third round guy when the year began, and names like Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley and Mississippi State’s Hunter Renfroe coming from no where to being possible top ten picks. Pop-up’s help increase the depth in the class, but also make scouting difficult as there isn’t the pedigree that some of the other top names have. Guys like Peterson, Renfroe and Reese McGuire have a ton of varying positions from the scouts and talent-evaluators I talk to, but there does seem to be a sort of consensus in this year’s draft compared to others.

From an outsider’s point of view, it looks like the draft class’ strongest position is at catcher, particularly the high school backstops. Local kid Reese McGuire heads up that group. The M’s could, conceivably, have their pick of McGuire, Ciuffo, or Denney. Of course, they just took Mike Zunino last year and they have some depth at the position, even despite Jesus Montero’s faceplant. If McGuire (or Ciuffo) is on the board, should the M’s take him? If not, why not?
It definitely is the strength of the class, though I wouldn’t take any of them in the first dozen picks. McGuire is one of — if not the — best defensive catchers I’ve ever seen, with the strongest arm of any backstop in the class. I just can’t take a hitter with a 40-45 hit grade that high, defensive star or not. There may be some local pressure — and the Mariners have seen him a ton — but I don’t think he’s going to be available anyway. Ciuffo’s got average tools across the board with the potential for maybe above-average power, but more of a late first-round talent, the same with Denney who probably will have to switch positions long-term.

Which players in the first round will be toughest to sign?
Manaea obviously is going to be a tough signing, and I can’t imagine him going to a team that doesn’t have multiple picks and extra allocation funds. Kohl Stewart could be a difficult signing with his commitment to play football at Texas A&M, and Frazier and Meadows will likely take to the last day, but I think they’ll all get done.

Years from now, this draft will be known for X? Or will it be forgettable?
I think this class will be made or broken by the top three, if Appel, Bryant and Gray are as good as I think they might be, then it’s a special top of the class. If Appel is more of a mid rotation guy and Gray burns out and Bryant can’t hit, then this will be a very forgettable class.

Most of the questions are Mariner related but here is the full article:
2013 MLB Draft Preview with Chris Crawford of MLB Draft Insider | U.S.S. Mariner (http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/05/30/2013-mlb-draft-preview-with-chris-crawford-of-mlb-draft-insider/)

InfraRen
05-30-2013, 10:15 PM
Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)3h (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/340258983564685313)
We (@KSTP (https://twitter.com/KSTP)) caught up w/ OF Ryan Boldt. Off crutches in a week. Has thought about going #43 to the #MNTwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash). Leans on Mitch Brown for advice.

maxisagod
05-31-2013, 11:40 AM
According to Radcliff, The Twins currently have 4 guys they like for the top pick. We know Stewart is one and McGuire is another. But there are 3 guys consider the top of the class in Gray, Appel, and Byrant. So who out of these three do you think the Twins don't like at 4 and why?

The Scoops: Twins' scouting crew finalizing plans for upcoming draft | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/The_Scoops_Twins_narrow_options_for_No_4_draft_pic k_down_to_four053013)

InfraRen
05-31-2013, 12:13 PM
https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/2580093243/80fbc677-61b4-4f89-9040-83b28a7d923e_normal.pngJim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA (https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA)14m (https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/340512634539479040)
Enjoyed doing this. @jeremysickel (https://twitter.com/JeremySickel): P2BNL chats @jimcallisBA (https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA) about #mlbdraft (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mlbdraft&src=hash), Wil Myers, Mark Appel & much more | http://po.st/cg0wVG (http://t.co/nO1Yl2OArE)
2013 MLB Draft Preview and Prospect Report | Podcast to Be Named Later (http://www.p2bnl.com/2013/05/p2bnl-chats-with-jim-callis/)

ashburyjohn
05-31-2013, 12:18 PM
According to Radcliff, The Twins currently have 4 guys they like for the top pick.

If you're picking at #4 then you need to. :)

Boone
05-31-2013, 12:24 PM
According to Radcliff, The Twins currently have 4 guys they like for the top pick. We know Stewart is one and McGuire is another. But there are 3 guys consider the top of the class in Gray, Appel, and Byrant. So who out of these three do you think the Twins don't like at 4 and why?

The Scoops: Twins' scouting crew finalizing plans for upcoming draft | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/The_Scoops_Twins_narrow_options_for_No_4_draft_pic k_down_to_four053013)

First of all, we don't know for a fact that Stewart or McGuire is in that group of 4. Assuming that they are, I would have to guess that Appel is the odd man out, just because he's a Boras client, which might scare the Twins off. That being said, it's possible that Bryant might be off of the list because of Sano.

gunnarthor
05-31-2013, 12:51 PM
According to Radcliff, The Twins currently have 4 guys they like for the top pick. We know Stewart is one and McGuire is another. But there are 3 guys consider the top of the class in Gray, Appel, and Byrant. So who out of these three do you think the Twins don't like at 4 and why?

The Scoops: Twins' scouting crew finalizing plans for upcoming draft | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/The_Scoops_Twins_narrow_options_for_No_4_draft_pic k_down_to_four053013)

You know, I read that as the Twins were considering 4 guys they like but left unsaid was that they weren't considering the 3 likely gone before hand. So I assumed they were considering Stewart, Shipley, McGuire and Frazier. But I might be wrong.

cmb0252
05-31-2013, 01:20 PM
Bleacher Report has an amazing article comparing HS pitchers vs college pitchers in the first round. Must read article!

2013 MLB Draft: Are High School or College Arms the Better 1st-Round Risk? | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656599-2013-mlb-draft-are-high-school-or-college-arms-the-better-first-round-risk)

Pius Jefferson
05-31-2013, 02:03 PM
Is it wrong that a part of me would prefer the Big 3 go before the Twins have their pick. Making the decision to draft Stewart easier than having to decide between Stewart or Bryant and Gray?

diehardtwinsfan
05-31-2013, 02:11 PM
Stewart V Bryant would be a tough choice.

Stewart V Gray is a no brianer, sorry Kohl.

nicksaviking
05-31-2013, 02:26 PM
Assuming that they are, I would have to guess that Appel is the odd man out, just because he's a Boras client, which might scare the Twins off.

Bryant is also a Boras client. I don't think the Twins would rule one out for being a Boras client and not the other.


You know, I read that as the Twins were considering 4 guys they like but left unsaid was that they weren't considering the 3 likely gone before hand. So I assumed they were considering Stewart, Shipley, McGuire and Frazier. But I might be wrong.

As fans we often do that, but I'd bet the Twins are considering every player, even Appel, Gray and Bryant. You just never know if someone is going to drop. You have to do your homework on each of them and have proper evaluations on them in case they do. Similar to how the Vikings assumd Sharrif Floyd was going to be a top 10 pick, they weren't going to automatically cross him off their list due to assumption.

I'd be shocked if the 4 guys aren't Gray, Appel, Bryant and Stewart in that order. With all the talk (and criticism) I don't believe for a second the Twins are seriously considering a questionable hitting defensive catcher at the 4th pick.

James
05-31-2013, 02:31 PM
First of all, we don't know for a fact that Stewart or McGuire is in that group of 4. Assuming that they are, I would have to guess that Appel is the odd man out, just because he's a Boras client, which might scare the Twins off. That being said, it's possible that Bryant might be off of the list because of Sano.
Having Sano in the system shouldn't, and won't, be a factor in deciding to draft Bryant if he's available. If he's there, I think the Twins will (and should) draft him. There are still questions on his (and Sano's) defense at 3rd, and you don't know if either will stick there.

To be clear, I think the chances of Bryant being around for the Twins is slim to none. It sounds like Colorado is pretty much set on drafting him, even if Houston mixes things up and drafts Moran instead of Gray or Appel.

cmb0252
05-31-2013, 03:35 PM
Gray- 9 innings pitched, 9 hits, 2 ER, 11/1 K/BB ratio vs Coastal Carolina.
Hursh- 4.1 innings, 7 hits, 3 ER, 2/2 K/BB ratio vs Miami

Oxtung
05-31-2013, 06:13 PM
I'd be shocked if the 4 guys aren't Gray, Appel, Bryant and Stewart in that order. With all the talk (and criticism) I don't believe for a second the Twins are seriously considering a questionable hitting defensive catcher at the 4th pick.

Here is a quote from Mike Radcliff:


"We have enough guys we have no problem taking," Radcliff said. "Dollars, risk, creativity, we can go many ways."

Creativity certainly implies one of the four is McGuire. Gray, Appel, Bryant, Stewart are all expecting to go high at this point and will expect to get paid accordingly so they aren't going to allow any creativity.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 01:55 PM
Bummed I won't be able to watch the draft live on Thurs due to another engagement but ill be on right after ready to discuss. It's almost draft week!

cmb0252
06-02-2013, 02:00 PM
Bummed I won't be able to watch the draft live on Thurs due to another engagement but ill be on right after ready to discuss. It's almost draft week!

Haha, I told my girl friend to make plans with her friends so I can drink and watch the draft with a few of my buddies. While it is exciting to draft this high because of the impact talent I'm ready for drafting in the 20s again.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 02:17 PM
Haha, I told my girl friend to make plans with her friends so I can drink and watch the draft with a few of my buddies. While it is exciting to draft this high because of the impact talent I'm ready for drafting in the 20s again.
Well done! Mine is a "preparing for a newborn" class so I can't really get out of it. Priorities! Best believe ill be taking a "bathroom break" around the time we pick tho!

30whales
06-02-2013, 09:01 PM
I have to be honest I really would not be disappointed anymore if they reached for Reese McGuire.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 09:05 PM
MLB Network right now, top 50 draft prospects show with Jonathan Mayo, etc.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 09:16 PM
Jason Hursh is a name I haven't been too familiar with - sounds like he's pretty solid.

30whales
06-02-2013, 09:20 PM
I don't understand why it sounds like the Twins have no interest in Ryan Boldt. Kid seems like a really good prospect and probably could be higher ranked if not for injury.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 09:38 PM
I don't understand why it sounds like the Twins have no interest in Ryan Boldt. Kid seems like a really good prospect and probably could be higher ranked if not for injury.
He definitely would be higher ranked. I dunno. Perfect 1/2 rounds for me would be Stewart and Boldt.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 09:54 PM
MLB Draft ‏@MLBDraft (https://twitter.com/MLBDraft)26s (https://twitter.com/MLBDraft/status/341387282588266497)
Reynolds on @TAMU (https://twitter.com/TAMU) commit @KohlStewart1 (https://twitter.com/KohlStewart1): "Love the competitiveness, guts, courage, leadership. If anybody had any guts, they'd take him first

https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/3343642094/874f64a7c940c8bc7714be1e73c4c7b3_normal.jpegKiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd (https://twitter.com/kileymcd)51s (https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/341387619093065728)
Manaea/medicals isn't only draft mystery. Won't say name but likely 1st rdpick is so shielded some interested clubs have never talked to him

cmb0252
06-02-2013, 09:56 PM
Jason Hursh is a name I haven't been too familiar with - sounds like he's pretty solid.

This is his first year back from TJ surgery so he is kind of a wild card. Has a fastball that sits in the 93-96 range but has 98 before. Due to TJ surgery his secondary pitches are way behind which make some people think he might be a relief pitcher long term. If his change up/slider develop he could be a solid prospect.

maxisagod
06-02-2013, 09:58 PM
MLB Network right now, top 50 draft prospects show with Jonathan Mayo, etc.

Harold Reynolds and Mayo both high on Reese McGuire and Kohl Stewart.

cmb0252
06-02-2013, 10:01 PM
I don't understand why it sounds like the Twins have no interest in Ryan Boldt. Kid seems like a really good prospect and probably could be higher ranked if not for injury.

The Twins love toolsy outfielders so there must be something there they don't like. What? No clue. Before the injury he was a top 20 talent. Once again, as they showed last year with Mitch Brown, they won't just take a kid because he is local.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 10:04 PM
That's not a consisent thing though, other sources (like Kiley McDaniel) say the Twins do have a lot of interest in Boldt. We'll see this week who's correct.

cmb0252
06-02-2013, 10:04 PM
He definitely would be higher ranked. I dunno. Perfect 1/2 rounds for me would be Stewart and Boldt.

I'm starting to hope Denney keeps falling. Catchers often do. It does sound like the Reds (two picks before or second round pick) and the Stankees (three picks before our second round pick) are in on him though. I prefer Denney > Boldt any day.

maxisagod
06-02-2013, 10:09 PM
I'm starting to hope Denney keeps falling. Catchers often do. ...
The're can also be runs on catchers, where guys get drafted early too.

InfraRen
06-02-2013, 10:10 PM
I'm fine with catcher, as long as it's not at #4 :go:

cmb0252
06-02-2013, 10:29 PM
The're can also be runs on catchers, where guys get drafted early too.

Oh definitely. As has been noted above some experts feel there could be a run on bats in the late first round because of it being a week hitting class. Especially in the MI positions. Also, this is a very deep catching class so the Twins don't have to take one early. I just love Denney's bat.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 01:05 AM
An article from Mackey- Twins Notes: MLB draft 'is the most important time of the year'

1500espn.com Mobile (http://m.1500espn.com/pages/sportswire.php?sPL=mackeys_twins_notes_mlb_draft_i s_most_important_time_of_the_year060213)

Few interesting comments. Here is one from Ryan:

"My role would be to take the blame when we don't do well, but I also get the praise when we do well. That's not fair," Ryan said. "I shouldn't get the praise when we get a good selection. Joe Mauer (in 2001) -- well that ought to go to (VP of player personnel) Mike Radcliffe. When we take a guy that doesn't pan out, all the GMs take the fall -- which it should be. We get all of the praise, and we should get all the criticism. That's my role. ..."

And one from Johnson on drafting multi sport high school players:

"If he's a dual-sport guy I think you can get a better read on makeup when you watch them in another sport," Johnson said. "You see a guy play basketball or football and you can see how he reacts in different situations. ... So I've always kind of believed in that, right or wrong. I remember as an area scout watching CC Sabathia play football and basketball, and we got a pretty good makeup read on him back then. ...

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 12:13 PM
A few scout notes on regional player from Christopher Crawford:

A NL scout on Gray's performance:

“There were some less-than-ideal things, but some encouraging moments as well,” an NL scout said. “It’s good to see him bounce back from the early struggles. Coastal Carolina has a good lineup and they will make you battle, and I think he did that [Friday]. With that being said, that pitch count is pretty exorbitant, no matter if he isn’t pitching for another week or another year.”

An AL scout on Stanek:

"You have to throw strikes if you’re going to be a top-10 pick, and [Stanek] just doesn’t do that often enough,” an AL scout said. “He’s got a plus fastball and a plus curve, but a guy with 40 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] command and no changeup? That’s a reliever, if you ask me.”

NL East scout on Bryant:

"I’d certainly consider [taking him first],” an NL East scout said. “This all depends on cost, of course. But I don’t know why you wouldn’t consider the best bat in the class with the first pick. If [Mark] Appel or Gray were [Stephen] Strasburg then it’s not even debatable, but they’re not. If you take any other bat with the No. 1 overall pick, it’s a mistake.”

AL scout on Moran:

"I don’t see it,” an AL East executive said. “He’s a nice player, he’s got one of the better hit tools in this draft, but I don’t see any way you can take him with the first pick over guys like Appel and Bryant and Gray. I implicitly understand the thought process of signing him for half the allotted fee or whatever Houston and his people work out, but it would be two years in a row of not getting the best talent on the board. And in this case, I think not even one of the top three talents available. I’m not sure if that’s good process”

If you have insider you can see several other scout quotes on the draft and notes on their regional performances from CC. Link below:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=729

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 05:06 PM
Two big developments for Twins possible draft choices today: Jonathan Gray tested positive for Adderall during the pre-draft testing. There's no guarantee this drops him, but it doesn't help his chances. Much better chance at him today, than yesterday.

Also, Texas A&M today signed 5-star QB recruit Kyle Allen, lessening Kohl Stewart's leverage - pretty much evaporating the "leverage" he has/had.

Twins Twerp
06-03-2013, 05:17 PM
So gray was up late studying and took adderall to stay focused...sounds ok to me. As for stewart...he was the number 6 qb in his class so he still has some leverage.

Twins Twerp
06-03-2013, 05:20 PM
Also, stewart is a 2013 recruit while this kid is still a junior in high school. Basically tye same kid but a year younger. This changes nothing for Stewart's leverage

PseudoSABR
06-03-2013, 05:37 PM
I think this lessens the chances of the 'stros taking Moran; they can probably get similar savings by taking Gray at this point...

Pitz
06-03-2013, 05:46 PM
While I don't think A&M signing another QB 'evaporates' Stewarts leverage, I also don't think it 'changes nothing'. Stewart likely won't play QB this year as the Aggies have a fella by the name of Manziel, and the signing of another QB for the following year would affect Kohl's thinking in some way I would think or at least cause him to question A&M's commitment to him.
He still has some leverage, but it would seem fairly foolish to turn down $4 mill. If the Twins draft him, I trust that they are very confident he will sign.

Red Bull
06-03-2013, 05:54 PM
Two big developments for Twins possible draft choices today: Jonathan Gray tested positive for Adderall during the pre-draft testing. There's no guarantee this drops him, but it doesn't help his chances. Much better chance at him today, than yesterday.

Also, Texas A&M today signed 5-star QB recruit Kyle Allen, lessening Kohl Stewart's leverage - pretty much evaporating the "leverage" he has/had.

Both could be good things for the Twins. Now they may be able to sign Stewart with more ease, or they will be able to get Gray because this news could cause him to fade down a couple spots. But I dont think many people will care about Gray testing positive for Adderal, I mean hes in college and playing baseball which has to be draining.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 06:17 PM
Both could be good things for the Twins. Now they may be able to sign Stewart with more ease, or they will be able to get Gray because this news could cause him to fade down a couple spots. But I dont think many people will care about Gray testing positive for Adderal, I mean hes in college and playing baseball which has to be draining.

Law mentioned he didn't think it would effect his draft status. I would be lying if I said I never used "study aid" in college. None story for me unless it pushes him to us at #4.

What interests me more is the Kyle Allen thing. Stewarts one trump card was A&M and while this doesn't negate that, it sure doesn't hurt. If this even knocks off a few 100k from Stewarts asking price it could lead to a better spec at #43.

cmb0252
06-03-2013, 06:28 PM
SB Nation put together a bunch of FREE scouting reports first round talent at this link:

MLB Draft 2013: Scouting reports round-up - SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/3/4391684/mlb-draft-2013-scouting-reports-jonathan-gray-mark-appel)

silverslugger
06-03-2013, 07:14 PM
I think it's important to note that the Kyle Allen "signing" is not a signing at all but rather a verbal commitment. No player is allowed to "sign" with a college until the first Wednesday in February. Until then there have been and will be many verbals that will change often. Verballing in college football is getting crazy, some guys verbal to 3 and 4 schools before actually signing on signing day. Plus, great schools usually get a 4 or 5 star qb in every class.

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 07:22 PM
Yeah, was just saying - it COULD factor some. May not, but it could. In both cases (Stewart, Gray)

InfraRen
06-03-2013, 10:41 PM
@jimcallisBA: Won't say 100% but think they're locked in on Stewart. RT @infraren: what would you say the Stewart/McGuire odds are for #Twins? 80/20?

cmb0252
06-04-2013, 12:08 AM
@jimcallisBA: Won't say 100% but think they're locked in on Stewart. RT @infraren: what would you say the Stewart/McGuire odds are for #Twins? 80/20?

Nice questions and thanks for sharing. While even 20 sounds like a lot maybe there is something we are missing. Talent ALWAYS falls. Most likely, hopefully, the Twins front office knows something we don't.

InfraRen
06-04-2013, 09:59 AM
Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)49s (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/341931956981870595)
#MNTwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash) draft update: they held a workout in Rochester last Wednesday. Among those there, I hear: catcher Tanner Norton & OF Justin Glass.

nicksaviking
06-04-2013, 01:01 PM
Things I'm wondering about with the draft:

1) Last year the Astros kept their plans to themselves until the pick was revealed at the podium surprising everyone with Carlos Correia who was not really known to be a consideration. They seemed to like that stratagy quite a bit. So why is there so much chatter this year about Colin Moran and Jonathan Gray? If they followed last year's stratagy the target may be someone else. If they are thinking about going underslot and it is not Moran, the first name that comes to mind is hometown kid Kohl Stewart.

2) Why are the Rockies so tied to Kris Bryant? Is it because the assumption is that Mark Appel and Gray will be off the board and Bryant is the 3rd best player? Things are not looking so set in stone any longer, there is a chance Appel or Gray are available. Are the Rockies dead set on passing up the pitchers over Bryant?

The Rockies need pitching more than any organization. In our forum there have been debates over the Twins selection of Bryant and Stewart. One would think the Rockies would have the same thought process, especially if need plays any part in the decision. The Rockies hope they just called up their 3B of the future in Nolan Arenado and their organizational OF depth is pretty solid.

3) Which ever team leaked the negative information about Gray wants him, and only three teams seem to have the draft position to take advantage of it. Houston may have done so in an attempt to drive down his price, but Chicago would not have done so as it could mean Houston could get one of the top two pitchers underslot while they pay full price. Colorado may have done so hopeing he would slip as may have Minnesota . I don't think it makes sense for Cleveland to do this as Minnesota drafts in front of them and they would be opening the door for a division rival to grab him. I suppose it's possible teams lower in the draft order may have done this but I don't think they could reasonably expect him to fall that far. Perhaps Miami or Boston have delusions of granduer?

jaspatrick
06-04-2013, 01:25 PM
Why assume the team that leaked the Gray info wants him? He was tested by MLB and the results of those tests were released to all thirty teams prior to the "leak." I don't think the fact the info is now public will stop a team from taking him that would have taken him before it went public.

nicksaviking
06-04-2013, 01:32 PM
Why assume the team that leaked the Gray info wants him? He was tested by MLB and the results of those tests were released to all thirty teams prior to the "leak." I don't think the fact the info is now public will stop a team from taking him that would have taken him before it went public.

Then why did it take so long for it to leak, and why now? The timing screams of stratagy, either by the Astros to get him at a discount or another team's desperate attempt to make him fall. Teams all knew but their fans didn't, drafting a drug abuser doesn't help perception.

cmb0252
06-04-2013, 01:54 PM
Law released his third and final top 100 board today. Top 5 are:

1: Appel
2: Bryant
3. Gray
4. Stewart
5. Meadows

Mcguire=19, Boldt =44, Windle=60

Insider link below:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9330709/mark-appel-kris-bryant-lead-final-ranking-top-draft-prospects-2013-mlb-draft

cmb0252
06-04-2013, 02:12 PM
Article from mlb.com on the Twins draft.
Twins poised to add to strong farm system in Draft | twinsbaseball.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130603&content_id=49381230&vkey=news_min&c_id=min)

I like this quote from Radcliff:

"We don't get away from taking the [best available player] ever since Terry [Ryan] came over as scouting director, before he became general manager. So yeah, we need pitching in the big leagues, but this Draft won't impact the Major League team for years to come. Even though we need pitching now, two, three, five years later, we might need something else. So you just have to have conviction on who you like. And with the No. 4 pick, you have to take who you think the best potential Major League player is."

Red Bull
06-04-2013, 02:44 PM
Article from mlb.com on the Twins draft.
Twins poised to add to strong farm system in Draft | twinsbaseball.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130603&content_id=49381230&vkey=news_min&c_id=min)

I like this quote from Radcliff:

"We don't get away from taking the [best available player] ever since Terry [Ryan] came over as scouting director, before he became general manager. So yeah, we need pitching in the big leagues, but this Draft won't impact the Major League team for years to come. Even though we need pitching now, two, three, five years later, we might need something else. So you just have to have conviction on who you like. And with the No. 4 pick, you have to take who you think the best potential Major League player is."

I really hope they take either Appel, Gray, Bryant or Stewart. Yea the top 3 may be ahead of Stewart but hes still in HS, in a couple years he could be a way better prospect than they were at that age. I think they will take Gray or Stewart.

birdwatcher
06-04-2013, 03:00 PM
Should have taken HS arms last year, instead of injured college relief pitchers......let's hope they learned their lesson.


How do YOU know what they should have done last year? Hey, let's just fire the whole scouting department. We have mike wants wins to guide us.

mike wants wins
06-04-2013, 03:19 PM
How do YOU know what they should have done last year? Hey, let's just fire the whole scouting department. We have mike wants wins to guide us.

I don't, but the whole point of most of these discussions is to offer our thoughts and opinions. Not sure what your issue is.

birdwatcher
06-04-2013, 03:52 PM
So ESPN thinks maybe the drafting has something to do with being bad the last few years.....who would have gotten Meek correct in a trivia question? Not me.

You know, mike, almost everyone sees a connection between inferior draft order and the likelihood of poor relative results. Except you I guess.

So, no, the ESPN article is not saying that "the drafting" has something to do with being bad the last few years. That would be YOUR interpretation, because it fits your schtick.

gunnarthor
06-04-2013, 04:07 PM
Article from mlb.com on the Twins draft.
Twins poised to add to strong farm system in Draft | twinsbaseball.com: News (http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130603&content_id=49381230&vkey=news_min&c_id=min)

I like this quote from Radcliff:

"We don't get away from taking the [best available player] ever since Terry [Ryan] came over as scouting director, before he became general manager. So yeah, we need pitching in the big leagues, but this Draft won't impact the Major League team for years to come. Even though we need pitching now, two, three, five years later, we might need something else. So you just have to have conviction on who you like. And with the No. 4 pick, you have to take who you think the best potential Major League player is."

I wonder what happens if they have a couple Boras clients sitting there at #4? I sure don't want them to pass on Bryant or Appel b/c of him.

cmb0252
06-04-2013, 04:10 PM
I wonder what happens if they have a couple Boras clients sitting there at #4? I sure don't want them to pass on Bryant or Appel b/c of him.

I can't see them passing on their BPA because of Boras. Twins have a big budget and as they showed last year after spending 12.6 million, they are willing to spend it.

gunnarthor
06-04-2013, 04:14 PM
I can't see them passing on their BPA because of Boras. Twins have a big budget and as they showed last year after spending 12.6 million, they are willing to spend it.

I hope you're right. I have my doubts - they don't draft Boras guys at all - but we'll see. I'd be interested to know if they had a guy like Stewart ranked ahead of Appel.

kab21
06-04-2013, 08:27 PM
Things I'm wondering about with the draft:

1) Last year the Astros kept their plans to themselves until the pick was revealed at the podium surprising everyone with Carlos Correia who was not really known to be a consideration. They seemed to like that stratagy quite a bit. So why is there so much chatter this year about Colin Moran and Jonathan Gray? If they followed last year's stratagy the target may be someone else. If they are thinking about going underslot and it is not Moran, the first name that comes to mind is hometown kid Kohl Stewart.


Here's why they are doing it.

1. 7.8M
2. 6.7M
3. 5.6M
4. 4.45M

They are dropping Moran's name a lot in the hopes that it shows they are serious about taking him and getting Gray to drop his asking price to 6.7M or lower since it's very easy for Gray to drop down to the #3 or #4 if the Astros pass on him. If Gray drops his asking price by 1+M then I think he's the Astros pick. I don't think Appel will deal and Boras also represents Bryant.

clutterheart
06-04-2013, 08:46 PM
In 2012, there were many, many supplemental picks - the 1st round was extended to 60.
In 2013, I see that the first round is only extended to 39 picks.
So it looks to me that if Houston follows their same strategy as last year, they will have a greater chance at landing some better players...it could be the smart move for them to take a player like Moran - or Stewart if he would sign for 5 MM - and then load up on talent in later rounds

mike wants wins
06-05-2013, 08:30 AM
I don't think Boras is an issue.

InfraRen
06-05-2013, 09:16 AM
https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/3331832907/51a63dc29a0c876237f6ade50f0e0e8b_normal.jpegAndrew Renny ‏@InfraRen (https://twitter.com/InfraRen)7m (https://twitter.com/InfraRen/status/342281498981969920)



@kileymcd (https://twitter.com/kileymcd) if Big 3 go 1-2-3, what's the ratio on Stewart/McGuire to Twins? 70/30?
Expand (https://twitter.com/InfraRen/status/342281498981969920)





https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/3343642094/874f64a7c940c8bc7714be1e73c4c7b3_normal.jpegKiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd (https://twitter.com/kileymcd)3m (https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/342282544445796352)
@InfraRen (https://twitter.com/InfraRen) over 90%

nicksaviking
06-05-2013, 09:19 AM
You know, mike, almost everyone sees a connection between inferior draft order and the likelihood of poor relative results. Except you I guess.

So, no, the ESPN article is not saying that "the drafting" has something to do with being bad the last few years. That would be YOUR interpretation, because it fits your schtick.

It's starting to look like your schtick is finding Mike's comments simply to make snarky comments about them. You're posts are starting to get pretty personal.

nicksaviking
06-05-2013, 09:29 AM
I like this quote from Radcliff:

"We don't get away from taking the [best available player] ever since Terry [Ryan] came over as scouting director, before he became general manager. So yeah, we need pitching in the big leagues, but this Draft won't impact the Major League team for years to come. Even though we need pitching now, two, three, five years later, we might need something else. So you just have to have conviction on who you like. And with the No. 4 pick, you have to take who you think the best potential Major League player is."

Well the first sentance had me encouraged as they say they will take the BPA. After that it almost seems like the implication is that they don't feel a pitcher will be the BPA at pick #4. I hope he is saying this with the anticipation that the Twins will have the choice between Bryant and Stewart because if he is not giving this quote with Bryant in the back of his mind, I'd be pretty disappointed. They couldn't seriously say with a straight face that they think McGuire is the 4th BPA. Would they be thinking Frazier or Meadows? I hope this is a smoke screen or just a poorly spoken response.

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 10:14 AM
Christopher Crawford released his final board.

1.Appel
2. Gray
3. Bryant
4. Stewart
20. McGuire
50. Boldt
52. Windle

The Final Board | (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/the-final-board-2013/)

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 10:23 AM
ESPN has an article out called The Problem with High School Catcher. If you can't tell by the name it is about drafting HS catchers. The article mentions that:

Of the 63 starting or backup catchers, roughly 20 percent were drafted out of the prep ranks at that position. You can count on your hands the amount that eventually made it out of the minors in the past decade.

The article states the three main reason's for catchers to fail are physical concerns, mental rigor of catching, and uneven performance. One NL scout had this to say:

"They get injured, they don’t develop, they don’t get stronger," an NL Central scout said. "You need a strong guy behind the plate, and a lot of those high school catchers need to get bigger and stronger. Some don’t. Their back can't take the stress that the position demands, and they end up being .200 hitters and maybe a backup in the big leagues."

On Law's and Christopher Crawford's draft boards they had McGuire at 20 and 19.

markos
06-05-2013, 11:44 AM
Well the first sentance had me encouraged as they say they will take the BPA. After that it almost seems like the implication is that they don't feel a pitcher will be the BPA at pick #4. I hope he is saying this with the anticipation that the Twins will have the choice between Bryant and Stewart because if he is not giving this quote with Bryant in the back of his mind, I'd be pretty disappointed. They couldn't seriously say with a straight face that they think McGuire is the 4th BPA. Would they be thinking Frazier or Meadows? I hope this is a smoke screen or just a poorly spoken response.

A month ago when draft talk started to heat up, I thought the Twins would draft Meadows. He just fit their mold - toolsy prep player - that they have repeatedly drafted over and over in the past decade and longer. And if there is one thing they like better than toolsy prep position players, it is polished college right-handed pitchers. They have avoided taking college position players and high school pitchers, so I assumed that the top of their draft board went something like this:

1) Appel
2) Gray
3) Meadows
4) Frazier
5) Bryant
6) Kohl Stewart

I have been shocked - shocked!! - that the Twins have been linked to Stewart so often in the past few weeks.

Personally, I will be very disappointed if they draft someone outside of the Appel, Gray, Bryant, Stewart group; however, if they did, I would still guess it is Meadows.

InfraRen
06-05-2013, 11:46 AM
https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/3504395091/fdaa054dce871f7f7c79ae45468407ed_normal.jpegBrian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart (https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart)10m (https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/342318646892298240)
#Astros (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Astros&src=hash) likely to take college player, with Appel at top of their board a day out. Comes down to signability. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130605&content_id=49663144&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb … (http://t.co/w8htiQIBOv)
Retweeted by Mike Berardino (https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino)

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 12:15 PM
Coner Glassey at BA will be holding a draft chat at 1 CT. Follow the link to the chat and ask a bunch of Twins questions!

BaseballAmerica.com: Chat Draft (http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1370451728)

InfraRen
06-05-2013, 12:33 PM
Coner Glassey at BA will be holding a draft chat at 1 CT. Follow the link to the chat and ask a bunch of Twins questions!

BaseballAmerica.com: Chat Draft (http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1370451728)

I'm in!

I usually ask a slew of questions, some as me, others as alter-egos to increase the chance they're answered :)

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 01:16 PM
Blam! Third question of the chat and it is mine.


Which names have been linked to the Twins at 43?


Conor Glassey: Tough to say, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a run at toolsy local outfielder Ryan Boldt.

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 02:03 PM
A few more questions/answers.


Andrew (Minnesota): Latest rumblings on Twins pick at #4? Are they dialed in on Stewart if "Big 3" goes 1-2-3?


Conor Glassey: Yes, I think that's the most likely scenario.


Buck (Galveston Island): What if Kohl Stewart becomes the RH version of Clayton Kershaw? I know it's a big if , but for about $4-4.5m why not take the first ever RHP HS kid. Why let some other team (Minn) take some one from Houston's own back yard and reap all the rewards.


Conor Glassey: Yeah, that's a big if. I imagine that a high school righthander will someday go 1-1, but I don't think Stewart's the guy just because he's from the same area as the team with the first pick. Gray, Appel and Bryant are better.


Who are the best college middle infielders in this draft?


Conor Glassey: It's slim pickins in that regard. For college shortstops, the best one on the BA 500 is Mississippi junior college SS Tim Anderson at 26. Stephen F. Austin State SS Hunter Dozier is at 39, but he’ll likely move to 3B. Mississippi State’s Adam Frazier is at 144, East Carolina’s Jack Reinheimer is at 155. Brutal year for college shortstops. Second base isn’t much better. JaCoby Jones from LSU is at 75, but he has serious questions about his bat, UConn senior L.J. Mazzilli is at 250….Tony Kemp! from Vanderbilt at 269….


Any news leaking out about HOU at #1 yet?


Conor Glassey: No, I expect a similar scenario to last year. I bet they're still hammering on signability and working through scenarios. I'm not sure we'll know who Houston's taking until minutes before the draft.

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 02:10 PM
SB nation put together a consensus draft list between 7 different expert mocks. No surprise but it goes Gray, Appel, Bryant, Stewart. Link for the full list:

MLB Draft 2013: Updated consensus mock draft list - SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/5/4399174/mlb-draft-2013-updated-consensus-mock-draft-list-jonathan-gray-mark-appel)

Red Bull
06-05-2013, 02:43 PM
I'm in!

I usually ask a slew of questions, some as me, others as alter-egos to increase the chance they're answered :)

Haha I thought I was the only one...

InfraRen
06-05-2013, 04:50 PM
Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)2s (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/342397728480976897)
#MNTwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash) draft notes after talking w/ Mike Radcliff: he expects to take at least 7 pitchers w/ 1st 10 picks, at least 20 w/ their 40 picks.

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)34s (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/342398954262126592)
Mike Radcliff on P Jonathan Gray & his positive Adderall test: "Still a player you're considering and have a lot of interest in." #mntwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mntwins&src=hash)

Also:

@kileymcd: Just swapped emails w/2 directors in the top 5 picks & advisor of #1 pick candidate. All have no idea what the Astros will do. Crazy quiet.

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 06:15 PM
Sickels released his top 50 hitters and pitchers for the draft. Here are the links:

Pitchers:
MLB Draft 2013: Updated consensus mock draft list - SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/5/4399174/mlb-draft-2013-updated-consensus-mock-draft-list-jonathan-gray-mark-appel)

Hitters:
2013 MLB Draft: Top 50 Hitters on John's Draft Board - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/5/4399960/2013-mlb-draft-top-50-hitters-on-johns-draft-board)

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 06:18 PM
Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)2s (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/342397728480976897)
#MNTwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash) draft notes after talking w/ Mike Radcliff: he expects to take at least 7 pitchers w/ 1st 10 picks, at least 20 w/ their 40 picks.

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)34s (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/342398954262126592)
Mike Radcliff on P Jonathan Gray & his positive Adderall test: "Still a player you're considering and have a lot of interest in." #mntwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mntwins&src=hash)

Also:

@kileymcd: Just swapped emails w/2 directors in the top 5 picks & advisor of #1 pick candidate. All have no idea what the Astros will do. Crazy quiet.

Nice info. I'm not surprised that they expect to take more pitchers than hitters in the first 10 rounds. Pitching is the strength of the draft. What I'm wondering is where they are going to get their catcher. They have made it clear they are going to grab one and prep catchers is a strength of the draft.

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 06:40 PM
Interesting article from BA about how teams used their money last year. Astros took Correa way under slot to clear money while the Jays only played their 5th-10th round picks a combined $31,000! The red Sox and cubs signed kids for $1,000 so they could spend it else where. Don't have to take McGuire at #4 to have money to spend else where. Link below:

Using Last Year's Money Lessons To Look Ahead - BaseballAmerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-draft-a-deeper-look-at-tough-signs-and-budget-savers/)

InfraRen
06-05-2013, 07:31 PM
I'm so excited, and I just can't hide it.

InfraRen
06-05-2013, 08:06 PM
@MikeBerardino: From what sources tell me, it will be a huge upset if the Twins pass on Houston prep RHP Kohl Stewart at No. 4 Twins' draft beliefs, needs can intersect if Kohl Stewart is available - TwinCities.com (http://t.co/hFT84we7BE)

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 08:09 PM
@MikeBerardino: From what sources tell me, it will be a huge upset if the Twins pass on Houston prep RHP Kohl Stewart at No. 4 Twins' draft beliefs, needs can intersect if Kohl Stewart is available - TwinCities.com (http://t.co/hFT84we7BE)

This would make a lot of people happy. Hopefully they can get him at a good price.

cmb0252
06-05-2013, 08:49 PM
From Peter Gamons:
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6m

Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the ’Stros and Cubs @1-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @3 go 1B Dominic Smith.

30whales
06-05-2013, 09:01 PM
From Peter Gamons:
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6m

Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the ’Stros and Cubs @1-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @3 go 1B Dominic Smith.

Wow Dominic Smith? Really? That seems ridiculous to me but what do I know.