View Full Version : Article: Tempered Expectations for Parmelee

Twins Fan From Afar
03-30-2012, 11:55 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?377-Tempered-Expectations-for-Parmelee

03-30-2012, 02:38 PM
.800 OPS in what would be his rookie season, that's already pretty decent. It seems like a reasonable prediction too, and over time should get better. I'm kind of excited about his development and this will mean pushing some weaker bats aside... I like it.

Seth Stohs
03-30-2012, 02:56 PM
He had an OPS of .802 in AA last year, I think a .750 OPS would be a good rookie year for him. Not sure it's realistic.

03-30-2012, 08:56 PM
I think a career path similar to Kubel is possible. Kubel had a great season at age 27 improving each season in OPS.

24 - .665
25 - .785
26 - .805
27 - .907
28 - .750
29 - .766

I think it is more likely that he will struggle as Kubel did at 24 and be sent down at some point rather than put up an OPS of 800+. An OPS of .750 is more reasonable and should keep him in the majors. Look for a steady progression in the coming years.

03-30-2012, 09:09 PM
I believe my eyeballs. Chris Parmelee is a solid baseball player. If he plays sound first base and doesn't try to press too hard at the plate, he'll have a fine rookie season. Just keep doing what he's been doing in spring training. And of course, if you have a hunch that a fastball's coming, smash the crap out of it.

03-31-2012, 07:37 PM
I believe my eyeballs. Chris Parmelee is a solid baseball player.

If your eyeballs tell you something drastically different than the numbers, go with the numbers. The numbers say he has a chance to be a decent MLB player, but he's no lock.

03-31-2012, 07:52 PM
I think a career path similar to Kubel is possible. Kubel had a great season at age 27 improving each season in OPS.

I'm not sure how to compare him to Kubel, because there are really two different Kubels - before and after the knee injury. Before, he was a truly elite prospect - his .352 .414 .590 1.004 line in 549 PA between AA and AAA at age 22 are on a different level from anything Parmelee has ever done. After the injury, he missed all of his age 23 season, then struggled at age 24 before finally starting to hit some at age 25.

There was really no comparison between the two as prospects. We can't compare their age 23 seasons (Parmelee's most recent) because Kubel missed his. My guess is what Kubel became is near the upper limit for Parmelee, but I don't think they have a similar enough career arc to be useful comparisons.

04-02-2012, 02:47 PM
Parmelee euphoria, I love it. Where solid rationale goes out the window.

I won't go into the minor league numbers, which were extremely consistent and everyone knows (K rate high, hit rate pretty low). Parmelee was all along touted to be an eventual major leaguer. He's fulfilling that promise right now. But he's pretty much been projected to be a second division regular if everything goes his way. Justin Morneau was projected to be an all-star. To even put them in the same sentence, unless that sentence starts with "Due to Morneau's inability to play first base..." is blasphemy. Parmelee's upside, meaning if everything goes right (which they usually don't) is hitting like Cuddyer. Problem is, Cuddyer's numbers were not good, not first-division, for a 1st baseman. And make no mistake, it's highly unlikely Parmelee ever plays much OF.*

In 2008 Denard Span completely "found it." In 2011 Trevor Plouffe had something click that hadn't shown itself before. And then in September Parmelee had a good month. Unfortunately, good Septembers happen to a lot of eventually mediocre players. He's followed that up with a very good spring training...again, not normally the basis for sound projections.

So...here's my thought based on all the evidence: Most likely scenario is that Parmelee is a mediocre, below average 1B. However, we have no evidence that the Span-type light didn't come on. The Plouffe AAA sudden explosion. In other words, there's hope that something special clicked. I hope so, too. But realistically, Parmelee is going to be below average as soon as MLB pitchers discover how to pitch to him. Here's crossing our fingers.

*Almost the only way Parmelee plays in the OF is if he's in the lineup with Morneau, Mauer, and Doumit, AND Mauer is at 1B. In other words, I don't think it's going to happen all that often.