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jokin
04-25-2013, 11:48 PM
Byron Buxton is making a mockery of Midwest League stat-keeping over his first 17 games played:

BA: .419 (First)
OBP: .526 (First)
SLG: .694 (First)
OPS: .1220 (First, obviously)

Putting things into "Trout-spective", Mike Trout played 86 games for, coincidentally enough, Cedar Rapids, over parts of 2 seasons, all before he turned 19. Here is his slash line for Low-Single A ball:

.358/.452/.514/.966

Buxton turns 19 and a Half on June 18, the same day as the Midwest League All Star Game. If he continues his ridiculous batting numbers above the "Trout Line", is it really worth it to keep him in Cedar Rapids, or maybe move him up to A+ after 50 games or so (end of May), or even sooner? If he continues what he's doing with the bat, what more can be gained by holding him back? Could he very well be capable of advancing all the way to AA before the end of the year? (BTW- There's a 29 year old journeyman "blocking" him in CF in New Britain right now!!!)

jorgenswest
04-25-2013, 11:52 PM
I would love to see Sano, Buxton and Rosario in New Britain by the end of the year.

Once in AA, they are knocking on the door.

lightfoot789
04-25-2013, 11:56 PM
Sano Goes Yard and Buxton Goes Yard - These two are going to be very special players for the MN Twins in 2+ years. Buxton is a very special talent. Can't wait to get to CR and watch his rise.

jokin
04-26-2013, 12:00 AM
I would love to see Sano, Buxton and Rosario in New Britain by the end of the year.

Once in AA, they are knocking on the door.

There are no legitimate MLB starting-level prospects blocking them at their positions in New Britain (Beresford maybe a ML UTIL IF? Maybe.)

It sure seems like things are setting up nicely for just this scenario if the Twins are willing to pull the trigger(s). This could mean potential call-ups beginning as early as September, and definitely some time on the MLB active roster in 2014 for at least one or more of them.

Ncgo4
04-26-2013, 12:50 AM
The Cedar Rapids Gazette reported that Twins Farm Director, Brad Steil, was at the game last night. He certainly got an eye full. They said the HR was out of the park onto the street and bounced onto the roof of a house across the street. Oh, maybe a little power.

drivlikejehu
04-26-2013, 01:02 AM
Buxton is off to a great start but he is not going to play in New Britain this year. There's a very good chance neither Sano nor Rosario will either. But, all three could start at NB next year, which is still plenty fast.

jokin
04-26-2013, 01:20 AM
Buxton is off to a great start but he is not going to play in New Britain this year. There's a very good chance neither Sano nor Rosario will either. But, all three could start at NB next year, which is still plenty fast.

The previous poster is presenting evidence that it could easily justify why it could/should go faster- if Buxton is on a Trout Trajectory, he should/could move up the fastest of the 3 given he doesn't have the defensive learning-curve limitations of Sano and Rosario. If these 3 guys continue their dominance, there really is no reason not to move them along. Starting out with their first experience at New Britain being held off until next year strikes me as foolish. They need to be major-league ready by 2015, holding back players who have mastered a level won't help attain that goal.


The Cedar Rapids Gazette reported that Twins Farm Director, Brad Steil, was at the game last night. He certainly got an eye full. They said the HR was out of the park onto the street and bounced onto the roof of a house across the street. Oh, maybe a little power.

mike wants wins
04-26-2013, 09:01 AM
I still think he's in low A until the minor league all star game, when he moves up to FTM for the rest of the year. What happens in 2014 will depend on the 2nd half of this year.

TRex
04-26-2013, 09:11 AM
Any chance he is chosen to play in the Future's Game ala Trout in 2010?

Or perhaps they will hold him back for Future's Game next year. That way he gets to play at Target Field ( ;)and they can save money by not having to fly him back to the minors;) )!

ThePuck
04-26-2013, 09:12 AM
The Twins are not the Angels. IMO, we shouldn't be figuring where our prospects will play based on what other teams do with their shining prospects. It's a fun exercise, but I don't think it means much.

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 10:09 AM
It's still early, but assuming he continues to dominate, is there any value whatsoever in letting a kid continue to destroy a level? I mean, I can go 16-0 and have Christian Ponder throw for 7000 yards on the easiest setting of Maddon, but is that really making me a better Maddon player? The Org needs to continue to challenge these kids.

SpiritofVodkaDave
04-26-2013, 10:20 AM
There is no real need to rush him at this level, the last thing you wanna do is throw him in AA and have him struggle a bit. He will be in AA plenty next year and will be ready for 2015.

SpiritofVodkaDave
04-26-2013, 10:22 AM
Also Buxton is answers 1. 2 and 3 to why you NEVER draft for need and always best player available.

kab21
04-26-2013, 10:23 AM
Do you really consider 2 levels per year too slow?

Is your intent that Buxton is competing for a CF job next spring?

cmathewson
04-26-2013, 10:25 AM
Reading between the lines of the Mientievicz interview on 1500, he expects Sano and Rosario to be in New Britain by midyear. I think it's a stretch to expect Buxton to jump two levels. But I would be shocked if he's not promoted to Fort Myers for the second half of the year.

spycake
04-26-2013, 10:25 AM
I hesitate to compare him to Trout yet, as it is still a small sample, but it's obviously a very encouraging start. Even if Buxton comes back to earth a little, if he shows solid defense and a reasonable K rate (Sano's two big flaws right now), I think a promotion to high-A will be warranted at midseason. If his number continue at video game crazy levels, obviously he could be promoted sooner, and if he continued raking after the promotion, hopefully they would re-evaluate his timeline.

While the Twins have been very conservative about promotions, they also haven't had a guy posting numbers quite like this for awhile (if ever). Mauer was very good but wasn't showing power, Sano has flaws, etc. It would be great to finally witness a meteoric rise through the minors! Make it happen, Byron!

(Also, does Buxton have an official nickname yet? Hopefully not "Buxie"?)

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 10:33 AM
There is no real need to rush him at this level, the last thing you wanna do is throw him in AA and have him struggle a bit. He will be in AA plenty next year and will be ready for 2015.

I think a developing player needs to struggle a little bit to become a true major leaguer. You can't become a leader in your field without first growing into that position. And you can't grow without adversity.

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 10:33 AM
Also Buxton is answers 1. 2 and 3 to why you NEVER draft for need and always best player available.

I could not agree more.

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 10:35 AM
[QUOTE=
(Also, does Buxton have an official nickname yet? Hopefully not "Buxie"?)[/QUOTE]

Please not Buxie. How about Bux?

spycake
04-26-2013, 10:42 AM
Actually, I seem to recall hearing "Buck" somewhere, not sure though.

Han Joelo
04-26-2013, 10:42 AM
Pretty sure the nickname is "Buck"

2wins87
04-26-2013, 10:44 AM
I think his nickname is Buck, maybe young buck--he's quite a bit younger than the rapper--or something along those lines.

50 games would be about 225 plate appearances. That seems like about enough if he's still dominating low-A, I'd probably let him get between 250 and 300, as long as he doesn't hit a serious rough patch.

Seeing more than two levels seems pretty fast, but I'd hope that he'll be starting out in AA next year, with a late 2014 call-up to the majors a real possibility.

I think some people will say that the Twins are moving him too slow no matter what timetable they put him on. But they've already shown a lot of confidence in him and I think they'll move him at the right pace.

Brandon
04-26-2013, 11:02 AM
If he gets promoted to A+ at the allstar break and continues to hit, and the A+ team is not likely to make the playoffs then you could promote Buxton to AA for the last 2 weeks of the season. But I think the Twins like to put the best playoff teams out on the field as the playoffs are close to a promotion as you are playing the best A+ team vs playing potentially noncompeting AA teams.

kab21
04-26-2013, 12:19 PM
I think a developing player needs to struggle a little bit to become a true major leaguer. You can't become a leader in your field without first growing into that position. And you can't grow without adversity.

i still have no idea what you are suggesting. should he be in AA this year? As a comparison Trout didn't go to AA during the comparable season. he played 80+ games in Cedar Rapids and then 50+ games in High A. The next season he played in 90+ games in AA and was a late season callup.

Are you suggesting that the Twins should be more aggressive with Buxton?

I think the board unanimously thinks that Buxton will be called up to Ft Myers at midseason. Do you disagree with this plan?

Seth Stohs
04-26-2013, 12:38 PM
As you all know, I saw Buxton's first three games in Cedar Rapids and came away immensely impressed by him. In fact, at the time, I said I would have put Buxton ahead of Sano in my rankings. Now, I say they'e 1a and 1b.

But, to be fair, the Twins need to be patient with Buxton and with anyone on April 25th. Consider the following statline:

(26-69) .377/.429/.768 with seven doubles, a triple, six home runs and 15 RBI.

Those were the stats in April of a Twins prospect in Beloit in 2011. He was a year or so older than Buxton. He wasn't a #2 overall pick like Buxton. He doesn't have Buxton's size and speed. So, please don't think I'm putting them in the same prospect category. What I'm trying to show is that April stats are great, but one month is a small sample. I do think it's important to get to face adversity and overcome it at a level too. Buxton isn't going to post a 1.200 OPS every month. If he does through the All-Star break, then absolutely move him up. But don't move him up based on three weeks.

The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

At the end of the 2011 season, all spent in Beloit, he hit .239/.294/.391 (.685) with 33-2B, 4-3B, 10-HR.

He never posted another 700 OPS month. He started 2012 with a month in Beloit before moving up to Ft. Myers where he played better, and then this year, he's off to a good start in New Britain.

But, patience is just smart.

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 12:47 PM
i still have no idea what you are suggesting. should he be in AA this year? As a comparison Trout didn't go to AA during the comparable season. he played 80+ games in Cedar Rapids and then 50+ games in High A. The next season he played in 90+ games in AA and was a late season callup.


Are you suggesting that the Twins should be more aggressive with Buxton?

I think the board unanimously thinks that Buxton will be called up to Ft Myers at midseason. Do you disagree with this plan?

Well, yes, I do think they should be more aggressive, but I really only meant there is no need to handle him with kid gloves. If he hits this well in low A, then he should go to high A. If he continues to rake at high A, then send him to NB. Maybe I'm overreacting to the Hicks situation, but I got tired to hearing how damaging his recent experience will be for him long term. There's nothing wrong with letting these prospects be (slightly) overmatched for a while. Let Buxton play against tougher competition, get knocked around a bit, open up some holes in his swing, etc. I know confidence is important, but unearned confidence is potentially even more damaging. You get better by pushing yourself against stronger competition, not by blowing out the JV team.

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 12:52 PM
As you all know, I saw Buxton's first three games in Cedar Rapids and came away immensely impressed by him. In fact, at the time, I said I would have put Buxton ahead of Sano in my rankings. Now, I say they'e 1a and 1b.

But, to be fair, the Twins need to be patient with Buxton and with anyone on April 25th. Consider the following statline:

(26-69) .377/.429/.768 with seven doubles, a triple, six home runs and 15 RBI.

Those were the stats in April of a Twins prospect in Beloit in 2011. He was a year or so older than Buxton. He wasn't a #2 overall pick like Buxton. He doesn't have Buxton's size and speed. So, please don't think I'm putting them in the same prospect category. What I'm trying to show is that April stats are great, but one month is a small sample. I do think it's important to get to face adversity and overcome it at a level too. Buxton isn't going to post a 1.200 OPS every month. If he does through the All-Star break, then absolutely move him up. But don't move him up based on three weeks.

The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

At the end of the 2011 season, all spent in Beloit, he hit .239/.294/.391 (.685) with 33-2B, 4-3B, 10-HR.

He never posted another 700 OPS month. He started 2012 with a month in Beloit before moving up to Ft. Myers where he played better, and then this year, he's off to a good start in New Britain.

But, patience is just smart.



And I agree with this as well. I did preface my original comment with "assuming he continues to hit..." By all means, be sure he's actually at that performance level before making decisions based on it.

kab21
04-26-2013, 12:57 PM
Exactly how long does he have to continue to hit for it to be too long in CR? Is half of a season too much? I can't even tell if you're in disagreement with the accepted belief that he will be called up at midseason.

I actually think he could get an earlier promotion when Kepler is ready for CR. It's a convenient excuse to start player movement.

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 01:07 PM
You're trying to pin me down on a timeline, I get that. I wasn't making a statement about the midseason timeline or whether Buxton specifically should be called up to AA this year. I was responding in general to the belief that we need to baby these kids along.

However, if it were me I would give Buxton a long look (3+ months) in AA before the year was out. Whether that means he skips high A entirely I don't know, but we will get a more accurate picture of current ability the stronger the competition he faces.

TRex
04-26-2013, 01:20 PM
Obviously I started writing this a few hours ago and didn't hit refresh, but...

I think we mis-remember the Mike Trout time line sometimes...

3892

He actually spent 81 games at Cedar Rapids in '10, and ONLY moved to high A for the final 50 games. He did not receive a promotion to AA, and his stats were somewhat pedestrian by CAL standards (his .821 OPS would not have ranked in the top 20).

He started the '11 season in AA, and played there for 91 games before making his MLB debut after the All-Star game.

This is the most optimistic blueprint for Buxton... so why are we discussing AA? And why are we boarding the promotion train bound for high A before 81 games (which I imagine was the MWL All Star break)?

Please
04-26-2013, 01:28 PM
What's the hurry, the pitching still stinks and the Twins should be trying to get as many cheap years outta Byron while the team is in contention. What's the point of having Buxton up to be on a 90 loss team.

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 01:36 PM
What's the hurry, the pitching still stinks and the Twins should be trying to get as many cheap years outta Byron while the team is in contention. What's the point of having Buxton up to be on a 90 loss team.

A potentially valid arguement, but I would say the more major league experience we get these kids the better. You don't get called up to the show and all of the sudden start performing like an All-Star. It takes time and experience at that level to hit your potential. That's one of the reasons I'm so glad Arcia is getting time up in the bigs right now, why I'm not sorry Hicks is struggling, and why I can't wait for Gibson. They will all be better for it come 2015.

SD Buhr
04-26-2013, 01:37 PM
Actually, 81 games was a couple of weeks after the MWL All-Star break. They play 140-game seasons (actually, two 70-game "half-seasons") in the MWL. Trout got promoted to A+ a couple of weeks in to the second half.

Likewise, a suggestion to send Buxton to AA for "3+ months" would mean doing so by Memorial Day, since minor league schedules wrap up at the end of August. No way the Twins would or should do that with any player, even Buxton, imo.

Turd Furgeson
04-26-2013, 01:39 PM
Putting Buxton in AA for three months this season would be a mistake, no question. He's riding a high right now, that doesn't mean he couldn't be challenged and tested in the league he's currently in. Maybe he's not seeing many breaking balls yet, or off-speed pitches. A mid-season promotion to high A will be just fine for where you'd expect a player of his talent and production. He doesn't need to spend anytime in AA this year. He can start the year in AA next year, and if he's still hitting really well he'll get his cup of coffee at the end of the year in 2014, and that should be the absolutely best case scenario.

Turd Furgeson
04-26-2013, 01:41 PM
A potentially valid arguement, but I would say the more major league experience we get these kids the better. You don't get called up to the show and all of the sudden start performing like an All-Star. It takes time and experience at that level to hit your potential. That's one of the reasons I'm so glad Arcia is getting time up in the bigs right now, why I'm not sorry Hicks is struggling, and why I can't wait for Gibson. They will all be better for it come 2015.

It takes time to refine your hitting skills even for the AA level. Even with a tremendous talent like Buxton, you don't just throw him into the majors and think he'll develop. Players need to be challenged but still be put in a position where they can succeed. Plus, the more time you waste on Buxton developing in the majors, the more service time you waste.

cmathewson
04-26-2013, 01:45 PM
Obviously I started writing this a few hours ago and didn't hit refresh, but...

I think we mis-remember the Mike Trout time line sometimes...

3892

He actually spent 81 games at Cedar Rapids in '10, and ONLY moved to high A for the final 50 games. He did not receive a promotion to AA, and his stats were somewhat pedestrian by CAL standards (his .821 OPS would not have ranked in the top 20).

He started the '11 season in AA, and played there for 91 games before making his MLB debut after the All-Star game.

This is the most optimistic blueprint for Buxton... so why are we discussing AA? And why are we boarding the promotion train bound for high A before 81 games (which I imagine was the MWL All Star break)?

That's the real Trout timeline, which I could see Buxton matching: Half a year in CR, half a year in FM. Half a year in NB, half a year in the majors in 2014. That is still faster than Mauer. So it seems a bit aggressive. Certainly possible. Just not likely.

ashburyjohn
04-26-2013, 01:49 PM
Maybe he's not seeing many breaking balls yet, or off-speed pitches.

Or, he's seeing them but lays off because they are invariably out of the strike zone. I think this had something to do with Aaron Hicks taking called third strikes earlier this month - "oh? they can DO that?"

Joe A. Preusser
04-26-2013, 01:51 PM
It takes time to refine your hitting skills even for the AA level. Even with a tremendous talent like Buxton, you don't just throw him into the majors and think he'll develop. Players need to be challenged but still be put in a position where they can succeed. Plus, the more time you waste on Buxton developing in the majors, the more service time you waste.

I didn't say Buxton should be thrown into the majors. Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson are more or less major league ready, so why not let them develop against the high calibur competition they will be facing eventually anyway?
The more I think about it, the less important service time becomes for me.

ashburyjohn
04-26-2013, 01:59 PM
The more I think about it, the less important service time becomes for me.

It takes an extreme case like Carlos Gomez to make me think it's an issue at all anymore.

Plus, a franchise getting a reputation for jerking its young stars around may find it suddenly more difficult to sign the guys they draft.

Han Joelo
04-26-2013, 02:15 PM
Just imagine a 16-4 Miracle team adding Buxton and maybe Berrios. Maybe dominating in the minors would translate to the majors.

cmb0252
04-26-2013, 02:24 PM
Half year in low A.
Move him to high A after the all star break.
If he dominates high A start him in AA in 2014. If he is over powered or plays just OK ball start him in high A in 2014 with the idea of moving him quickly to AA.
Once he has proven himself in AA give him a September call up.
Start him in AAA in 2015 and once high clock passes the magic day bring him to the bigs.

Please
04-26-2013, 02:27 PM
A potentially valid arguement, but I would say the more major league experience we get these kids the better. You don't get called up to the show and all of the sudden start performing like an All-Star. It takes time and experience at that level to hit your potential. That's one of the reasons I'm so glad Arcia is getting time up in the bigs right now, why I'm not sorry Hicks is struggling, and why I can't wait for Gibson. They will all be better for it come 2015.

Were also talking about 3 weeks of baseball, 3 WEEKS!!!

People wanted Sano in Fort Myers after a few weeks last season and he responded by going into an evil slump.

There's no rush on these kids, they'll be up soon enough.

ThePuck
04-26-2013, 02:28 PM
Were also talking about 3 weeks of baseball, 3 WEEKS!!!

People wanted Sano in Fort Myers after a few weeks last season and he responded by going into an evil slump.

There's no rush on these kids, they'll be up soon enough.

and how did he finish the season in Beloit?

Turd Furgeson
04-26-2013, 02:45 PM
Or, he's seeing them but lays off because they are invariably out of the strike zone. I think this had something to do with Aaron Hicks taking called third strikes earlier this month - "oh? they can DO that?"

Perhaps. But the book likely isn't written on him yet. When it is, they will attack his weaknesses relentlessly and we'll have to see how he responds.

diehardtwinsfan
04-26-2013, 02:52 PM
What's the hurry, the pitching still stinks and the Twins should be trying to get as many cheap years outta Byron while the team is in contention. What's the point of having Buxton up to be on a 90 loss team.

Between Gibson, Meyer, May and 2013 pick #4, the Twins should have some decent cheap front line pitching to go with the 2014/15 wave. Given that Benson is looking more and more like a bust every day (and I really hope this isn't hte case as I like the kid), I could see reason to hurry up Buxton as there'd likely be an open OF spot at one point. That of course assumes he continues to rip the cover off the ball. That could easily change should he actually struggle. The fact he's doing well is great, but he could get promoted and suddely fall of the Trout timeline... Who knows.

Ncgo4
04-26-2013, 03:23 PM
Buxton, through three cold rain soaked weeks, looks like a major league ready super star. But he isn't. What I'm not sure about is which side of the mound is favored by the weather. My guess is that the bats have had a huge advantage, that it's harder for the young arms to get acclimated and loosened up in the cold. In a couple more weeks the pitchers will have had time to study and probe him and then we'll see how he holds up at this level in the warmer weather. If he's still at .350 with an on base of .395, move him. If he's down to .310, leave him to get comfortable. If, and miracles do happen, he's still at .400 with an OBP of .500 then it may make sense to give him a some time at high "A" and then up to "AA" to finish the season. He's only 18 and it'll be fun to watch.

pioneers3
04-26-2013, 03:52 PM
That's the real Trout timeline, which I could see Buxton matching: Half a year in CR, half a year in FM. Half a year in NB, half a year in the majors in 2014. That is still faster than Mauer. So it seems a bit aggressive. Certainly possible. Just not likely.

IF Mauer wasn't a catcher he is in the league a lot quicker, he was learning how to handle a pitching staff as a high school draftee. So I wouldn't apply the Mauer time table to Buxton.

Buxton will end year in FM, not AA.

drjim
04-26-2013, 05:07 PM
As you all know, I saw Buxton's first three games in Cedar Rapids and came away immensely impressed by him. In fact, at the time, I said I would have put Buxton ahead of Sano in my rankings. Now, I say they'e 1a and 1b.

But, to be fair, the Twins need to be patient with Buxton and with anyone on April 25th. Consider the following statline:

(26-69) .377/.429/.768 with seven doubles, a triple, six home runs and 15 RBI.

Those were the stats in April of a Twins prospect in Beloit in 2011. He was a year or so older than Buxton. He wasn't a #2 overall pick like Buxton. He doesn't have Buxton's size and speed. So, please don't think I'm putting them in the same prospect category. What I'm trying to show is that April stats are great, but one month is a small sample. I do think it's important to get to face adversity and overcome it at a level too. Buxton isn't going to post a 1.200 OPS every month. If he does through the All-Star break, then absolutely move him up. But don't move him up based on three weeks.

The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

At the end of the 2011 season, all spent in Beloit, he hit .239/.294/.391 (.685) with 33-2B, 4-3B, 10-HR.

He never posted another 700 OPS month. He started 2012 with a month in Beloit before moving up to Ft. Myers where he played better, and then this year, he's off to a good start in New Britain.

But, patience is just smart.



Pretty sure this conversation goes beyond merely scouting a stat line.

gunnarthor
04-26-2013, 05:10 PM
The Twins have occasionally moved prospects a couple levels - Mauer, Arcia, Garza, Baker, Gibson, Morneau and even Kubel. I think Buxton is more likely to move this year than Sano was last year because he's showing much better plate discipline. If he's still hitting like this in a couple weeks, I think they have to move him up.

TRex
04-26-2013, 05:29 PM
Also don't forget that the Twins were a playoff team and had AJ at catcher when Mauer was in AA. You weren't going to promote Mauer to play DH, and you weren't going to move AJ from catcher mid-season.

Buxton likely won't have to worry about joining a playoff contender, and outfield is much more malleable than catcher.

Please
04-26-2013, 06:57 PM
and how did he finish the season in Beloit?

The point is that he struggled bad in the middle months of the season. He righted the ship late in the season, but it's not like he dominated a league all season and was wasting his time at Beloit.



Between Gibson, Meyer, May and 2013 pick #4, the Twins should have some decent cheap front line pitching to go with the 2014/15 wave. Given that Benson is looking more and more like a bust every day (and I really hope this isn't hte case as I like the kid), I could see reason to hurry up Buxton as there'd likely be an open OF spot at one point. That of course assumes he continues to rip the cover off the ball. That could easily change should he actually struggle. The fact he's doing well is great, but he could get promoted and suddely fall of the Trout timeline... Who knows.

And between Gibson, Meyer, May and newest pick (assuming it's a pitcher) Not all those guys are going to be successful MLB pitchers.

We can dream on it, but they won't all make it.

ThePuck
04-26-2013, 08:00 PM
The point is that he struggled bad in the middle months of the season. He righted the ship late in the season, but it's not like he dominated a league all season and was wasting his time at Beloit.


You hit 28HR/100 RBI in 129 games and have an OPS around .900, you've dominated that league

spycake
04-26-2013, 09:36 PM
The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

Danny Ortiz was 2 years older than Buxton is now, wasn't stealing bases, wasn't drawing many walks, and I'm not sure about his defense, but he was playing more in RF/LF than CF.

Obviously time will tell if Buxton is just having a hot month or is on his way to cementing his status as a top prospect league-wide. Hopefully, given his pedigree and all-around skills, it will be the latter. And if we're going to discuss minor league players around here, there's really no way to do it right now without being excited about Buxton. Most folks aren't advocating instant promotions, however.

spycake
04-26-2013, 09:39 PM
You hit 28HR/100 RBI in 129 games and have an OPS around .900, you've dominated that league

Sano had a solid year, certainly, but the strikeouts and low average didn't help. (And poor defense.) He was basically a one-trick pony, although that one trick was done pretty well (and is always desperately needed by the big league club!). But you don't want him looking like a power-only prospect in the low minors -- that doesn't translate well to big-league success.

ThePuck
04-26-2013, 10:12 PM
Sano had a solid year, certainly, but the strikeouts and low average didn't help. (And poor defense.) He was basically a one-trick pony, although that one trick was done pretty well (and is always desperately needed by the big league club!). But you don't want him looking like a power-only prospect in the low minors -- that doesn't translate well to big-league success.

He also got on base at a very decent clip, regardless of BA or Ks.

jokin
04-26-2013, 10:20 PM
He's only 18 and it'll be fun to watch.

Actually, he's 19. And I'm thinking if he keeps at, or above, the Trout production line, he gets moved up sooner, not later. There is a crying need for depth in CF in the organization or they wouldn't have a 29 year old journeyman starting there in New Britain- or two strikeout Kings and a journeyman sharing CF time in Rochester.

jokin
04-26-2013, 10:41 PM
Obviously I started writing this a few hours ago and didn't hit refresh, but...

I think we mis-remember the Mike Trout time line sometimes...

3892

He actually spent 81 games at Cedar Rapids in '10, and ONLY moved to high A for the final 50 games. He did not receive a promotion to AA, and his stats were somewhat pedestrian by CAL standards (his .821 OPS would not have ranked in the top 20).

He started the '11 season in AA, and played there for 91 games before making his MLB debut after the All-Star game.

This is the most optimistic blueprint for Buxton... so why are we discussing AA? And why are we boarding the promotion train bound for high A before 81 games (which I imagine was the MWL All Star break)?

Trout was age 18 for both his years at Cedar Rapids and got moved all the way to Cedar Rapids in his first year at the end of the season. Buxton turned 19 in December. I was wondering out loud that IF he is now on the Trout trajectory, and that IF he maintains a commensurate level of production, why couldn't the Twins be comfortable in moving Buxton along?---- so that, when hit hits age 20 next year, he has his first taste of AA already under his belt, and can build on that in 2014 and be in better position for the call-up, when and if it should happen. Look at Manny Machado, who last year, just turning 20, got the callup to the Orioles in the midst of a pennant race. This happened in the middle of his 3rd year of professional ball, as did Trout, one month shy of his 20th birthday.

The main priority for me is having as many of the next wave ready to make a legitimate run in 2015. For me, the best way to get there is to challenge these elite-level prospects early and often with the best appropriate level of competition that will prepare them for the major leagues.

jokin
04-26-2013, 11:05 PM
Sano had a solid year, certainly, but the strikeouts and low average didn't help. (And poor defense.) He was basically a one-trick pony, although that one trick was done pretty well (and is always desperately needed by the big league club!). But you don't want him looking like a power-only prospect in the low minors -- that doesn't translate well to big-league success.

Baseball America had Sano as the #2 player in the MWL, behind Baez, who was only a part-time MWL player. Sano was 1st in Total Bases, 1st in HRs, 1st in BBs, 1st in RBI, 2nd in OBP and 3rd in SLG among full-time MWL players.

Bottom line, Sano dominated the MWL

TRex
04-26-2013, 11:59 PM
I think you are getting a little too hung up on the exact age...

Trout graduated high school at 17 yr and 9 mo and Machado at 17 yr 10 mo. Buxton graduated at 18 yr 6 mo. Maybe this difference would be important if you are talking about international prospects that sign at 16, but the main point we are debating for the three prospects is the 24 months after being drafted.

Machado also followed the Trout promotion time line...

After signing he started off in the GCL and was promoted to the NY/Penn (only 2 and 7 games, respectively). The following year he started off in the Sally, and was promoted to high-A on June 23 (two weeks ahead of Trout ;)). He started his third season in AA, and was promoted to Balt. after playing 108 games.

Perhaps we could break it down to games played in Rookie/Low-A/High-A/AA...

Trout 39/86/50/91
Machado 9/38/63/109
Mauer 32/110/62/73

And in terms of challenging these young kids, remember that Trout's initial call up did not go well (OPS<.700), and he had to start the next year in AAA. What happened next is, of course, legendary. However, it appears even Mike Trout himself can't repeat 2012, so what makes us think Buck can?

kab21
04-27-2013, 12:03 AM
You're trying to pin me down on a timeline, I get that. I wasn't making a statement about the midseason timeline or whether Buxton specifically should be called up to AA this year. I was responding in general to the belief that we need to baby these kids along.

However, if it were me I would give Buxton a long look (3+ months) in AA before the year was out. Whether that means he skips high A entirely I don't know, but we will get a more accurate picture of current ability the stronger the competition he faces.

I'm just trying to figure out if you actually are making a different argument than most on this board.

Skipping Ft Myers would be silly. The only reason you do that is if you want and think Buxton is ready for an early 2014 big league promotion. He is good (great/awesome) but let's not get carried away.

jokin
04-27-2013, 12:14 AM
I think you are getting a little too hung up on the exact age...

Trout graduated high school at 17 yr and 9 mo and Machado at 17 yr 10 mo. Buxton graduated at 18 yr 6 mo. Maybe this difference would be important if you are talking about international prospects that sign at 16, but the main point we are debating for the three prospects is the 24 months after being drafted.

Machado also followed the Trout promotion time line...

After signing he started off in the GCL and was promoted to the NY/Penn (only 2 and 7 games, respectively). The following year he started off in the Sally, and was promoted to high-A on June 23 (two weeks ahead of Trout ;)). He started his third season in AA, and was promoted to Balt. after playing 108 games.

Perhaps we could break it down to games played in Rookie/Low-A/High-A/AA...

Trout 39/86/50/91
Machado 9/38/63/109
Mauer 32/110/62/73

And in terms of challenging these young kids, remember that Trout's initial call up did not go well (OPS<.700), and he had to start the next year in AAA. What happened next is, of course, legendary. However, it appears even Mike Trout himself can't repeat 2012, so what makes us think Buck can?

You're not already calling Mike Trout a "bust", are you?;)

Again, to me, it's all about 2015....
And the precedent established of 2 other talented players moving up (to much better teams than the Twins) in the 3rd year of their professional career....
And the wide open path to the majors with the lack of depth in CF.....
And the fact that the Twins had drafted possibly the best/most talented player in all the 2012 draft.....
And that it will cost the Twins nothing to find out just what they have here....

Again, this is all predicated on Buxton maintaining a trajectory at or above what Trout, and to a lesser degree, Machado laid the blueprint for.

Shane Wahl
04-27-2013, 12:28 AM
Well, like almost everyone is raking in the system at the bottom now (Buxton and Sano are super-raking). Meanwhile the Twins have a bunch of players who are in EST or injured like Kepler. When Kepler gets to Cedar Rapids, I would promote Buxton and watch the team in Fort Myers with Buxton, Michael, Rosario, Sano, and Vargas. Sano, Rosario, Michael, and Vargas can then get some AA time this year. I understand patience, but I don't like such patience at the lower levels. Challenging these players with promotions mid-season just seems to be the way to go, in my view. Arcia moved quickly, Hicks did not and the development of those two is pretty telling. Same for Parmelee and Benson. I don't really get the fascination with keeping players at low-A and then later at AA for 500-1,000 plate appearances. The FSL is the first real test and there is value in AAA time.

With regard to Buxton, I merely move his ETA up a full year (from 2016 to 2015). But hopefully he spends some time at EVERY level along the way.

kab21
04-27-2013, 12:48 AM
I'm sorry Shane but Hicks, parmelee and Benson weren't earning fast promotions and that's why they moved slow. Parmelee actually needed to be demoted one year to get on track.

Shane Wahl
04-27-2013, 12:53 AM
I submit 2011 AA seasons for Parmelee and Benson, and Hicks' 2012 season as evidence, kab21. Also Hicks' 2010 time at Beloit got a bit old as well.

kab21
04-27-2013, 01:12 AM
So you think Parmelee should have been promoted to AA in 2009? In 2011 Parmelee was repeating AA and had completely sucked in 2010.

Pretty much the same story for Benson. Both of these hitters completely sucked in A ball. why do you think they deserved midseason promotions so they can play at 2 levels in a year.

I think you are also looking back in hindsight at Hicks 2010 season. IIRC Hicks had an absolutely incredible hot streak early in the season and went into an awful slump. It's hard to promote someone when they are in an awful slump.

These players did not deserve to be pushed fast. As a matter of fact they deserved to repeat these leagues.

gunnarthor
04-27-2013, 10:45 PM
I think Kab21 has this about right. Players mostly dictate how fast they move and the Twins do seem more willing to move elite prospects than the critics are suggesting.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-27-2013, 11:04 PM
To be completely honest, I think comparing anybody from the 2012 draft to anyone prior is apples and oranges. The signing deadline was moved up, guys signed quicker, guys played more. If the rules hadn't changed, there is no way Buxton would be in Cedar Rapids right now. He probably wouldn't have taken a single professional at-bat in 2012.

As for Buxton's timeline, he'll earn a mid-season promotion to Fort Myers and finish the year there. I think he'll be in New Britain Opening Day 2014 assuming he doesn't completely implode. At that point (or maybe closer to the summer), I think he's on the Twins radar.

And for the sake of saying, I think Sano moves up to New Britain mid-season. Gets a big-league invite next spring and is a poor month of Trevor Plouffe away from being the everyday 3B. All of that dependent on being able to stay at 3B, which I think he will.

Rosario and Meyer are probably on similar timelines.

Oxtung
04-27-2013, 11:53 PM
I don't get why people think the Twins need to move prospects really fast through the minors. It doesn't matter how fast a prospect moves through the system; it matters what they do once they get to the Twins. According to Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Promoting Prospects (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018) the Twins have been pretty good at getting production from their young players.

jokin
04-28-2013, 11:11 PM
To be completely honest, I think comparing anybody from the 2012 draft to anyone prior is apples and oranges. The signing deadline was moved up, guys signed quicker, guys played more. If the rules hadn't changed, there is no way Buxton would be in Cedar Rapids right now. He probably wouldn't have taken a single professional at-bat in 2012.

As for Buxton's timeline, he'll earn a mid-season promotion to Fort Myers and finish the year there. I think he'll be in New Britain Opening Day 2014 assuming he doesn't completely implode. At that point (or maybe closer to the summer), I think he's on the Twins radar.

And for the sake of saying, I think Sano moves up to New Britain mid-season. Gets a big-league invite next spring and is a poor month of Trevor Plouffe away from being the everyday 3B. All of that dependent on being able to stay at 3B, which I think he will.

Rosario and Meyer are probably on similar timelines.

I'm not following the logic of the supposition here. Here are the facts:

Mike Trout drafted in '09 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #25.
207 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

Manny Machado drafted in '10 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #3.
39 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A- levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

Byron Buxton drafted in '12 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #2.
189 PAs for 2 teams (RKL/RKL). Started year 2 in A ball.

Trout and Machado had extended MLB call-ups in year 3 and became full-time players in year 4. That schedule would Buxton in the Twins starting lineup in CF on opening day in 2015.

gunnarthor
04-29-2013, 07:20 AM
I'm not following the logic of the supposition here. Here are the facts:

Mike Trout drafted in '09 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #25.
207 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

Manny Machado drafted in '10 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #3.
39 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A- levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

Byron Buxton drafted in '12 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #2.
189 PAs for 2 teams (RKL/RKL). Started year 2 in A ball.

Trout and Machado had extended MLB call-ups in year 3 and became full-time players in year 4. That schedule would Buxton in the Twins starting lineup in CF on opening day in 2015.

Jeremy's point is mostly right. Prior to changing the signing date a lot of prospects didn't sign until Aug 15 and then didn't get any professional work that first year. Machado played in 9 games after he signed, for instance. Trout was a late first round pick who signed for slot right away so he did play a lot his first year but that was the exception. Had Buxton wanted more than slot under the old rules, the commissioner wouldn't have approved his signing until Aug 15 and the Twins probably wouldn't have seen him play that first year. I think that was the point Jeremy was making.

Steve Lein
04-29-2013, 03:29 PM
Just another example of a timeline with a player destroying a league hitting-wise:

In his first exposure to the Florida State League to start his 2012 season, Detroit Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos batted .405/.461/.553. He played 55 games. So essentially it took until the all-star break for Detroit to move him up (and he struggled big time at the next level).

To expect sooner than that, is just plain dumb, quite frankly. It's a rarity everywhere, especially for a player making his full-season-league MiLB debut.

jokin
04-30-2013, 12:34 AM
Just another example of a timeline with a player destroying a league hitting-wise:

In his first exposure to the Florida State League to start his 2012 season, Detroit Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos batted .405/.461/.553. He played 55 games. So essentially it took until the all-star break for Detroit to move him up (and he struggled big time at the next level).

To expect sooner than that, is just plain dumb, quite frankly. It's a rarity everywhere, especially for a player making his full-season-league MiLB debut.

Apples and Oranges versus top, universally accepted, elite prospects. Castellanos was the 44th pick, well down from the top-end talent pool in 2010. No one can say he was improperly rushed too quickly or that his career has been mishandled. To this point, with the $6M invested up front in Buxton, it behooves the club to move him along at a rate commensurate with his level of production and talent potential- recent precedent has been firmly established with Trout and Machado. Given the enormous up-front invesment, it would be "dumb" to waste such potential talent languishing needlessly downline in the organizational depth chart, should he continue his current rate of success.

kab21
04-30-2013, 12:51 AM
Castellanos might have been the 44th pick but he was not well down the talent pool. He was an overslot pick and has one of the nicest swings in the minors.

jokin
04-30-2013, 01:15 AM
Castellanos might have been the 44th pick but he was not well down the talent pool. He was an overslot pick and has one of the nicest swings in the minors.

He might have a nice swing, but he's demonstrably not right in that Harper/Machado/Harvey/Sale range of talent, which is what I was referring to, and which I still think Buxton has a good chance to be.

kab21
04-30-2013, 02:31 AM
I hope you are using more than this his draft position to backup your analysis.

Nobody is in the Harper range of talent FWIW. And I have no idea why you are discussing two college pitchers that moved fast. Are you hoping to distract everyone from how wrong you were originally?

jokin
04-30-2013, 11:47 PM
I hope you are using more than this his draft position to backup your analysis.

Nobody is in the Harper range of talent FWIW. And I have no idea why you are discussing two college pitchers that moved fast. Are you hoping to distract everyone from how wrong you were originally?

By what measurable metric am I wrong? I have clearly pointed out that were Buxton to maintain the standard that Trout set at the same level, which he is now surpassing, than that should merit him for consideration to stay on the fasttrack to the majors. The eyewitnesses in Cedar Rapids concur that he compares favorably to, if not better than, Trout at the same point in time. The Twins clearly needs more depth in CF at the upper levels of the organizaton. 4 players chosen high in the 2010 draft are now key players on their respective teams. I brought up 3 position players chosen within the first 3 picks of their respective drafts, plus Trout at 25. These were the top players in their respective years, as Joe Mauer was, when he was drafted. Not players chosen 44th. Why is it so controversial to suspect that Buxton can have his career move on the same track as the others mentioned?

kab21
05-01-2013, 12:37 AM
You're only argument that Castellanos was in a different tier of talent so far is that he was the 44th pick. He was at the absolute minimum a mid first rd talent and part of the gap between Castellanos and Buxton/Machado was the difference in defensive value. Coming into the draft his bat was that good.

FWIW - his signing bonus was 3.45M. That is equal to the 5th overall slot in this years draft. He was an elite bat in the draft.

spycake
05-01-2013, 09:39 AM
In his first exposure to the Florida State League to start his 2012 season, Detroit Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos batted .405/.461/.553. He played 55 games. So essentially it took until the all-star break for Detroit to move him up (and he struggled big time at the next level).

That's a .148 isolated power average (slugging minus batting average). Buxton is at .292 right now. He has more HR than Castellanos had, in less than half as many PAs so far (plus more steals and almost as many walks). Castellanos performance wasn't bad, but it was a classic "batting average on balls in play" spike, with little value in plate discipline or power.

I think the premise here is that Buxton could be promoted aggressively if he keeps up his early displays of plate discipline and power.

2wins87
05-02-2013, 06:02 PM
In a chat with Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette (http://thegazette.com/2013/05/02/a-chat-with-minnesota-twins-farm-director-brad-steil/), farm director Brad Steil was asked if Buxton would be kept in Cedar Rapids for at least half a year. He said:

"Don’t know about that. We’ll have to see."

So it seems that the Twins don't plan on holding Buxton back for some arbitrary amount of time if he continues to play well.

Steve Lein
05-06-2013, 04:36 PM
Nick Castellanos is #21 on Baseball America's and MLB.com's pre-2013 top 100 prospects. Was just noting another player with similar hype who had hit comparably to what Buxton is doing now, and how long it took for the team to promote him. Mike Trout played EIGHTY games in the MWL before he was moved up to the CAL League. I just think its way to premature to call for his promotion already. They aren't going to mess with any "accelerated timeline" by keeping him in Cedar Rapids for half a season. If they do that, and he does well at Fort Myers, he's likely in AA to start next year and knocking on the door already. That's plenty fast.

ThePuck
05-06-2013, 04:38 PM
In a chat with Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette (http://thegazette.com/2013/05/02/a-chat-with-minnesota-twins-farm-director-brad-steil/), farm director Brad Steil was asked if Buxton would be kept in Cedar Rapids for at least half a year. He said:

"Don’t know about that. We’ll have to see."

So it seems that the Twins don't plan on holding Buxton back for some arbitrary amount of time if he continues to play well.

Is that the conclusion you get from that quote?

gunnarthor
05-06-2013, 04:54 PM
Is that the conclusion you get from that quote?

I read it the same way too.

ThePuck
05-06-2013, 05:02 PM
I read it the same way too.

It's not even an answer...'don't know, have to wait and see.' It's about as non-committal as it gets and leaves it open to whatever you thought of the situation before he ever said it. It could be that the truth is something no one wants to hear, so he just throws out that quote.

Here's the Q&A right before that one:

Q: How long will Byron Buxton be here?


A: Good question. I understand it. He’s playing very well. There are still some things I think he can learn here. We’ll just continue to evaluate it as we go.

It's another non-answer. BTW, non-answers are fine...but we can't conclude things from them.

jokin
05-09-2013, 01:28 PM
It's not even an answer...'don't know, have to wait and see.' It's about as non-committal as it gets and leaves it open to whatever you thought of the situation before he ever said it. It could be that the truth is something no one wants to hear, so he just throws out that quote.

Here's the Q&A right before that one:

Q: How long will Byron Buxton be here?


A: Good question. I understand it. He’s playing very well. There are still some things I think he can learn here. We’ll just continue to evaluate it as we go.

It's another non-answer. BTW, non-answers are fine...but we can't conclude things from them.

It looks like others have read this thread, used the information supplied and then made their own inquiries, and then, drawn their own conclusions:


Mackey: Byron Buxton could move up the ladder faster than people think - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Byron_Buxton_could_move_up_the_ladder_faste r_than_people_think050813)

I'm hoping he will still be in CR while I still have a chance to see him play. If not, I plan on making a side trip to Fort Myers from my planned trip to Orlando in July.

ThePuck
05-09-2013, 01:31 PM
It looks like others have read this thread, used the information supplied and then made their own inquiries, and then, drawn their own conclusions:


Mackey: Byron Buxton could move up the ladder faster than people think - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Byron_Buxton_could_move_up_the_ladder_faste r_than_people_think050813)

I'm hoping he will still be in CR while I still have a chance to see him play. If not, I plan on making a side trip to Fort Myers from my planned trip to Orlando in July.

I have no idea when he'll be where. After reading those quotes, I still can't speculate. I still have no idea if there is a preset time frame or not :-)

jokin
05-09-2013, 02:31 PM
I have no idea when he'll be where. After reading those quotes, I still can't speculate. I still have no idea if there is a preset time frame or not :-)

With the lack of CF depth- organization-wide, it seems impossible, even in the Twins organization, that they will choose the all-too-familiar and stultifyingly slow promotional path for Buxton--- if--- he keeps up anything close to his current blistering pace.

Here's what Sickels said about Buxton from last night:

"Everything you've heard about Byron Buxton's (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/188829/byron-buxton) tools is true. He actually didn't have a great game last night as a hitter, but I'll have the details about that in my full report. However, the tools are simply amazing. I knew he was at least a 70 runner but if anything his speed is underplayed. There are reports that he's been clocked at 3.70 down the line this year and I'd believe it. I didn't get a stopwatch on him, but in the first inning he made my jaw drop by hitting a routine ground ball to the third baseman, who made a normal play and got off a normal throw. . .which Buxton beat easily for a single. That's not far from Billy Hamilton (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/129752/billy-hamilton) fast. Buxton is a true blazer. "


http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/9/4316308/minor-league-ball-gameday-may-9

I for one, would like to have the majority of the new wave talent comfortably ensconced in their positions by early 2015. Barring injury, it would be inexcusable if Buxton continues to impress as he is and he isn't made ready by then, at the latest.

jokin
05-10-2013, 03:49 AM
More experts making the case.

From Mike Rosenbaum (lead writer for MLB Prospects):



"Speaking of the devil, what Byron Buxton is doing this season at Low-A is unbelievable. Top draft pick Buxton has nearly mastered Low-A after only five weeks, and he’s pacing the Midwest League in nearly every offensive category (and has reached base in every game played thus far).

The 19-year-old has one of the highest ceilings among all minor league position prospects, and he is making a strong case for a top-10 overall ranking by midseason."

jokin
05-10-2013, 10:41 AM
Head-poundingly, mind-numbingly inane comments from the Twins FO on Buxton, per Dougie:

"Phil Mackey laid out a compelling case for Twins outfield prospect Byron Buxton, 19, making it to the majors relatively soon.
In many ways, (Twins Vice President for Player Personnel, Mike) Radcliff agrees:

"He'll dictate."


Buxton is often compared to Braves outfielder B.J. Upton because both were the No. 2 overall pick out of high school. Upton made his major league debut two years after signing.


"He's a way better hitter than Upton," Radcliff said of Buxton. "Upton is a nice player, a plus defender. ... But Buxton has a swing that will allow him to hit for average. It's the fastest, quickest, most direct swing you'll see."


So, we will see Buxton at High-A Fort Myers soon?


"That's not imminent," Radcliff said.


Buxton is hitting .373/.488/.647 with 15 extra-base hits, 13 stolen bases and 31 runs scored in his first 28 games for Low-A Cedar Rapids."


If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers. And BOTH Upton brothers were called up to their major league teams as 19 year-olds. Even the extremely frugal Rays put their Upton brother on the fast track. As for the Twins? Well, they admit their prospect is better than at least one Upton, and they'll let Buxton "dictate" his promotion--- but his "dictation" to this point has proven to make his promotion "not imminent."

Got it, Mike!

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 11:10 AM
If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers. And BOTH Upton brothers were called up to their major league teams as 19 year-olds. Even the extremely frugal Rays put their Upton brother on the fast track. As for the Twins? Well, they admit their prospect is better than at least one Upton, and they'll let Buxton "dictate" his promotion--- but his "dictation" to this point has proven to make his promotion "not imminent."

Got it, Mike!

Think you're over reading this. The Twins have made it clear that they want Buxton to get a second look at the league before they promote him. He won't stay in low A all season. The Rays had Upton play 100 games at low A before they promoted him. And, while he got to the majors at 19, he spent his age 20 season in the minors.

jokin
05-10-2013, 11:18 AM
Think you're over reading this. The Twins have made it clear that they want Buxton to get a second look at the league before they promote him. He won't stay in low A all season. The Rays had Upton play 100 games at low A before they promoted him. And, while he got to the majors at 19, he spent his age 20 season in the minors.

Except both Upton brothers started their pro careers in Low A. And I wouldn't have a problem if Buxton bounces back and forth from the major league club before he finally sticks. The Twins have $6M invested in him up front. Let's see what we've got, "Upton-like Sooner" rather than the possibly needlessly Twins' "SOP Later."

kab21
05-10-2013, 11:49 AM
Buxton does not have the best features of both Upton brother. Justin has 70-80 power and he had it as a rookie. I agree though that Buxton is a more complete player than BJ.

TRex
05-10-2013, 12:51 PM
I really think you have a problem with the whole 'years of age' thing. Both Upton brothers were born in August, and were within 3 weeks of turning 20 when they debuted in the majors. In addition, BJ Upton was only 17 when he graduated high school and got drafted. Buxton was 18 when he graduated and was drafted, there is nothing you can do about it. The Upton brothers both started in low A ball the year AFTER they were drafted, just like Buxton. And BJ Upton didn't necessarily 'bounce back and forth' to the minors, he spent more time in the minors AFTER his debut than he did before (240 games).

I get that YOU want him on a faster track than any prospect in history, and you are entitled to have any opinion you want. However, all you have been doing is pointing to other's progressions, and not telling us why Buxton should go faster. What do you know or have you read that justifies this?

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 01:03 PM
Incidentally, KLaw agrees with the Twins plan to let Buxton stay down and see the league again:
Ian (OK)

How long would you keep Buxton in low A? Let the league get a second shot at him (Twins plan apparently).
Klaw (2:01 PM)


Yes, make him go around the league twice.

Brock Beauchamp
05-10-2013, 01:14 PM
Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

nicksaviking
05-10-2013, 02:19 PM
Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

I agree and feel that the Twins are not at this point delaying promotions for service time issues as they appeared to do in the past, but to be fair, Arcia really had no business being in AA at the end of last year. He surely deserved to be in Rochester at minimum but wasn't, likely due to the Twins throwing New Britain a bone by letting them keep their best player for the playoff run. If I lived in Conneticut I might feel differently, but I don't, so I'm not a fan of keeping the youngsters down for this particular reason.

It possibly would not have made a difference, but perhaps Hicks would not be struggling at the MLB level had he gotten 20 games at Rochester late last season.

Brock Beauchamp
05-10-2013, 03:20 PM
I agree and feel that the Twins are not at this point delaying promotions for service time issues as they appeared to do in the past, but to be fair, Arcia really had no business being in AA at the end of last year. He surely deserved to be in Rochester at minimum but wasn't, likely due to the Twins throwing New Britain a bone by letting them keep their best player for the playoff run. If I lived in Conneticut I might feel differently, but I don't, so I'm not a fan of keeping the youngsters down for this particular reason.

It possibly would not have made a difference, but perhaps Hicks would not be struggling at the MLB level had he gotten 20 games at Rochester late last season.

I don't think they did anything wrong with Arcia. He only received 299 PAs with New Britain last season and started the season in Ft Myers. By the time they were considering a move, it was probably late enough in the season where they said "Meh, why bother?" with the expectation that he would start the following season in Rochester.

If Arcia garnered 400+ PAs at a level last season, I might agree that he was promoted too slowly. But when he doesn't even accumulate 300 PAs after making one of the most significant level jumps in the minor leagues, I don't have any problems with how they handled him last season.

jokin
05-10-2013, 03:36 PM
Buxton does not have the best features of both Upton brother. Justin has 70-80 power and he had it as a rookie. I agree though that Buxton is a more complete player than BJ.

The early knock on Buxton was that he might be only be a 45-55 power guy, he apparently had a hitch in his power swing. That is currently shaping up to be an assessment that may have to be amended. Buck's current ISO rate is .264 with a .632 SLG. By contrast, Justin Upton had a .151 ISO with a .413 SLG at Class A. His rookie year with the D-Backs 2 years later, Upton had a .213 ISO with a .463 SLG. Of course, Buxton is bound to regress down a bit from his current power rate---But--- Imagine a reassessment upgrade of Buxton's power potential.... with better plate discipline than Justin Upton. Both players have a similar frame and height. Buxton will certainly gain 15 pounds of man muscles in the near future to match Upton's current weight of 205#s. Does anyone really think that Buxton DOESN'T have a shot at being a, at least occasionally, 30-30 guy?

jokin
05-10-2013, 03:39 PM
I don't think they did anything wrong with Arcia. He only received 299 PAs with New Britain last season and started the season in Ft Myers. By the time they were considering a move, it was probably late enough in the season where they said "Meh, why bother?" with the expectation that he would start the following season in Rochester.

If Arcia garnered 400+ PAs at a level last season, I might agree that he was promoted too slowly. But when he doesn't even accumulate 300 PAs after making one of the most significant level jumps in the minor leagues, I don't have any problems with how they handled him last season.

Why not a September call-up? Seems like a misassessment unless Arcia was injured.

jokin
05-10-2013, 03:41 PM
Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

I'd settle for the 2 year time frame of the aforementioned players, the Upton's or Trout/ Machado.

mike wants wins
05-10-2013, 03:49 PM
Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

I'm not yet convinced. They traded two CFers in the offseason, I don't think they had a choice other than Hicks that was realistic. Let's see how fast Sano, Rosario, Gibson, Buxton move up before drawing any conclusions.

And, Arcia is here because of an injury, not because they wanted him here at the beginning of the year. So far, he appears to be deserving of being here. I had no problem with him in the minors to start the year, they need to see what Parmalee can/cannot do over some time (which they should have given him last year).

jokin
05-10-2013, 03:51 PM
I really think you have a problem with the whole 'years of age' thing. Both Upton brothers were born in August, and were within 3 weeks of turning 20 when they debuted in the majors. In addition, BJ Upton was only 17 when he graduated high school and got drafted. Buxton was 18 when he graduated and was drafted, there is nothing you can do about it. The Upton brothers both started in low A ball the year AFTER they were drafted, just like Buxton. And BJ Upton didn't necessarily 'bounce back and forth' to the minors, he spent more time in the minors AFTER his debut than he did before (240 games).

I get that YOU want him on a faster track than any prospect in history, and you are entitled to have any opinion you want. However, all you have been doing is pointing to other's progressions, and not telling us why Buxton should go faster. What do you know or have you read that justifies this?

Actually, between 2004 and 2007, BJ Upton did bounce back and forth, regardless of your own definition of "bouncing." The larger point in the matter, it hasn't hurt Upton's long-term career path by the Rays aggressive fast-tracking of him.

See other posts I have made recently, citing his stats and expert evaluations. I'm not alone in this assessment that Buxton is putting up the numbers and has passed the eye-test with his skill-set.

cmathewson
05-10-2013, 04:00 PM
FWIW, several Twins officials have said he is on the fast track, as is Sano. The last time I heard this much noise about a prospect being on the fast track, it was Joe Mauer, who reached the majors at 21. But he was a catcher, so, presumably, he needed more time to learn his craft.

I could see both Buxton and Sano up before they reach their 21st birthday. Not sure either will be be on the Trout or Upton time line. I sort of doubt it.

Brock Beauchamp
05-10-2013, 04:00 PM
I'd settle for the 2 year time frame of the aforementioned players, the Upton's or Trout/ Machado.

I don't think I'll ever understand their lack of September call-ups last season. Bizarre.

jokin
05-10-2013, 04:04 PM
Not sure either will be be on the Trout or Upton time line. I sort of doubt it.

Really out on a limb with that last prediction, Christy!:)

nicksaviking
05-10-2013, 04:04 PM
If Arcia garnered 400+ PAs at a level last season, I might agree that he was promoted too slowly. But when he doesn't even accumulate 300 PAs after making one of the most significant level jumps in the minor leagues, I don't have any problems with how they handled him last season.

Arcia only jumped one level last year, I guess I wouldn't consider that too significant.

And again, I don't think any delay is service time related at this point, particularly because Arcia only recieved 81 PA at Beloit in 2011 and I'll bet no one can find a HS bat who spent less time at Low A for the Twins in this century. He then got promoted to Ft. Myers after only 235 PA in 2012. Because of this evidence, I feel the Twins made their decision to keep Arcia and Hicks at New Britain because of the affiliate's playoff run.

You said you don't think the Twins did anyting wrong with Arcia last year which is true. But I'd wager you also wouldn't have have found fault had both Hicks and Arcia been moved to Rochester at the end of the year to get their feet wet.

jokin
05-10-2013, 04:08 PM
Excellent points, Nick. Seth Stohs confirmed in another thread what we all know. Considerations other than the best individual developmental career paths always come into play with Twins prospects.

launchingthrees
05-10-2013, 04:51 PM
I'm more pessimistic on the twins chances in 2013/2014 than most so I tend to prefer a more cautious approach shooting for a 2015/2016 callup.

Brock Beauchamp
05-10-2013, 05:21 PM
You said you don't think the Twins did anyting wrong with Arcia last year which is true. But I'd wager you also wouldn't have have found fault had both Hicks and Arcia been moved to Rochester at the end of the year to get their feet wet.

No, I wouldn't have had an issue either way. It was a borderline move and I can see the merit of either decision.

ThePuck
05-10-2013, 05:27 PM
For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

ashburyjohn
05-10-2013, 05:37 PM
For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

The difference might be that Hicks's minor league numbers didn't suggest he could step right into the majors and immediately be league-average, while Arcia put up better numbers (and/or at tougher levels) at similar ages.

ThePuck
05-10-2013, 05:46 PM
The difference might be that Hicks's minor league numbers didn't suggest he could step right into the majors and immediately be league-average, while Arcia put up better numbers (and/or at tougher levels) at similar ages.

The complaint from many was about the idea of prospects skipping AAA (and how, as many put it, it almost never works) and losing a year of control (the money issue).

drivlikejehu
05-10-2013, 05:48 PM
For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

Who was "raging" over Hicks? It's just a question of smart management- something the Twins often don't practice. Arcia didn't start the season in the Majors, so the Twins didn't lose any years of control (though they may have to pay him more in the 6th year).

I'm not worried about Buxton being held back. MLB organizations often jump prospects from AA to the Majors with little or no AAA time, and if Buxton keeps playing well there's no doubt he starts next year at AA.

Brock Beauchamp
05-10-2013, 06:52 PM
For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

The difference is that Arcia has never given any reason to question his ability to move up a level.

Hicks spent two years at AA. Arcia spent three months in AA at a younger age and outperformed Hicks with the bat (by a pretty healthy margin).

And then Oswaldo went to AAA and put up video game numbers.

gunnarthor
05-10-2013, 07:38 PM
Arcia didn't start the season in the Majors, so the Twins didn't lose any years of control (though they may have to pay him more in the 6th year).

That's not how it works. Arcia stills needs about 10 or so days in the minors for the Twins to have that extra year.

Ncgo4
05-10-2013, 09:13 PM
Looks like Buxton is finally getting the slump we all kind of expected. He's hitting .250 for May with more than 10 K's.

ThePuck
05-10-2013, 09:17 PM
Who was "raging" over Hicks? It's just a question of smart management- something the Twins often don't practice. Arcia didn't start the season in the Majors, so the Twins didn't lose any years of control (though they may have to pay him more in the 6th year).

I'm not worried about Buxton being held back. MLB organizations often jump prospects from AA to the Majors with little or no AAA time, and if Buxton keeps playing well there's no doubt he starts next year at AA.

-Um lots of people.
-Unless Arcia goes back down for awhile, they will lose the extra year.

kab21
05-10-2013, 09:19 PM
The early knock on Buxton was that he might be only be a 45-55 power guy, he apparently had a hitch in his power swing. That is currently shaping up to be an assessment that may have to be amended. Buck's current ISO rate is .264 with a .632 SLG. By contrast, Justin Upton had a .151 ISO with a .413 SLG at Class A. His rookie year with the D-Backs 2 years later, Upton had a .213 ISO with a .463 SLG. Of course, Buxton is bound to regress down a bit from his current power rate---But--- Imagine a reassessment upgrade of Buxton's power potential.... with better plate discipline than Justin Upton. Both players have a similar frame and height. Buxton will certainly gain 15 pounds of man muscles in the near future to match Upton's current weight of 205#s. Does anyone really think that Buxton DOESN'T have a shot at being a, at least occasionally, 30-30 guy?

I don't think you are understanding me. Justin Upton has absolutely ridiculous power. Like top 5 raw power in the majors and it was there his rookie year. I saw him hit a line drive off of a 20 ft high batter's eye (in play) in spring training and he almost got thrown out at 2nd base because it came back to the CF'er so fast. I don't care what stats you look up from the minors but Buxton does not compare to Justin's raw power and never will. There is also no way that Justin weighs 205 lbs currently.

He should have BJ's power potential and body type but there is absolutely no way that he compares to Justin Upton from a power standpoint.

Oxtung
05-11-2013, 01:45 AM
For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

First off many of us did "rage" about Arcia being called up. However, it was completely different circumstances than Hicks. Arcia was killing it at AAA, and was only supposed to be up for a couple of days, before going back to AAA. Instead his injury replacement stint has lasted much longer than expected and suddenly he is OPSing .892 which is tops on the team. Do I still wish we could earn that extra year of control? Yes. I think Oz will slump at some point and get sent down. Each step of his journey (other than his original 2 day injury replacement) has been logical.

On the other hand nothing about the 'Aaron Hicks is our opening day starter' scenario seemed that logical. The only thing he had going for him was his Spring Training numbers.

Put the two together and I think that's why there is a difference between the "extra year" fervor.

diehardtwinsfan
05-11-2013, 07:45 AM
Every time I say something negative about Buxton he proves me wrong.

3 for 20 in the last 5 games. He sucks.

drjim
05-11-2013, 08:25 AM
If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers. And BOTH Upton brothers were called up to their major league teams as 19 year-olds. Even the extremely frugal Rays put their Upton brother on the fast track. As for the Twins? Well, they admit their prospect is better than at least one Upton, and they'll let Buxton "dictate" his promotion--- but his "dictation" to this point has proven to make his promotion "not imminent."

Got it, Mike!

Small point but Upton was promoted agressively by a different regime than the one currently in charge. It was probably fun to see him in the majors that young but it took 4 years for him to stay up for good, that probably isn't an ideal development track.

ThePuck
05-11-2013, 12:11 PM
First off many of us did "rage" about Arcia being called up. However, it was completely different circumstances than Hicks. Arcia was killing it at AAA, and was only supposed to be up for a couple of days, before going back to AAA. Instead his injury replacement stint has lasted much longer than expected and suddenly he is OPSing .892 which is tops on the team. Do I still wish we could earn that extra year of control? Yes. I think Oz will slump at some point and get sent down. Each step of his journey (other than his original 2 day injury replacement) has been logical.

On the other hand nothing about the 'Aaron Hicks is our opening day starter' scenario seemed that logical. The only thing he had going for him was his Spring Training numbers.

Put the two together and I think that's why there is a difference between the "extra year" fervor.

You're missing the point, but that's fine.

jokin
05-13-2013, 12:25 AM
LEN3 stated this evening, citing Tom Kelly, the old curmudgeon himself, not one to throw idle compliments about, who said that Byron Buxton is the fastest player he's ever seen. When asked to qualify, that characterization included faster than Revere, Guzman and Wilson. Confirms what Sickels recently had to say about Buxton's Plate-to-First speed being "unreal".

Oxtung
05-13-2013, 12:34 AM
Of course Buxton at 19(?) still hasn't grown into his body yet and will be putting on weight before he reaches the majors. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his current speed once he adds 30 pounds.

jokin
05-13-2013, 12:42 AM
Of course Buxton at 19(?) still hasn't grown into his body yet and will be putting on weight before he reaches the majors. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his current speed once he adds 30 pounds.

He'll be 19.5 on the same day as the Midwest All-Star game in June.

Good point, his frame will definitely fill out nicely. Given all the skills in his tool box, I'll be more than happy to trade some of that raw speed for even more raw power.

Pius Jefferson
05-13-2013, 01:50 AM
LEN3 stated this evening, citing Tom Kelly, the old curmudgeon himself, not one to throw idle compliments about, who said that Byron Buxton is the fastest player he's ever seen. When asked to qualify, that characterization included faster than Revere, Guzman and Wilson. Confirms what Sickels recently had to say about Buxton's Plate-to-First speed being "unreal".

I heard the TK interview on 1500 when he said Buxton was the fastest player he's seen. To be honest I was hoping for more of a baseball compliment from TK.

jokin
05-13-2013, 05:10 PM
Sickels is a believer, but is tempered enough to be willing to wait another month or so for a promotion to Fort Myers. Sounds like he is pleased with the Twins coaching staff in the adjustments they've made to his power swing, but that Buxton still has some work to do with pitch selection and bat speed. I am still very optimistic that he can get an extended call-up in 2014 and ready to go in 2015.

Excerpt Prospect Report: Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/13/4326724/prospect-report-byron-buxton-of-minnesota-twins) :


"I knew he was fast, with at least 70-speed, but he still took me by surprise. In the first inning, he hit a routine ground ball to the third baseman. It was a normal play, the third baseman made a normal scoop and made a normal, on-time, on target throw to first base. Buxton beat the throw for a single; I literally said "holy ****" out loud. There are reports that he's been timed at 3.70 down the first base line and I completely believe it. He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/cincinnati-reds) prospect Billy Hamilton (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/129752/billy-hamilton)."


Money quote:

"There is a lot of speculation about when the Twins should move Buxton up to High-A. Based on what I saw Wednesday, he still has a few things to learn in the Midwest League. The Twins usually don't rush their prospects, and I don't see the harm in leaving him in Cedar Rapids for another month or so.

Overall, although it wasn't one of his best games, I came away from the Quad Cities very impressed with Buxton. He's the real deal and clearly one of the best prospects in the game. I was a bit cautious with his ranking on my initial Top 150 Prospects for 2013 back in March (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/3/13/4095252/minor-league-ball-top-150-prospects-for-2013-john-sickels), ranking him 37th. I'd jump him up at least 25 spots right now and probably more, into the Top 10. As other players graduate off the list, Buxton will likely be in the Top Five."

jokin
05-15-2013, 06:04 PM
Buxton does not have the best features of both Upton brother. Justin has 70-80 power and he had it as a rookie. I agree though that Buxton is a more complete player than BJ.

Peter Gammons agrees with me, Buxton is the next big thing:

Per Twitter https://twitter.com/pgammo:

"Byron Buxton is half Justin Upton/BJ Upton, Half amazing." The Twins are on the clock as baseball's next hot team..."

I think that makes Buxton 1.5 times as good as the other prospects?

Let's get this moving forward to the next wave, already.

kab21
05-15-2013, 06:18 PM
I think buxton is the next big thing also but he doesn't have Justin Upton power. he isn't going to fill out like Justin Upton.

cmathewson
05-15-2013, 06:41 PM
It's too early to tell how much power he develops. His power score jumped about 20 over the last offseason, when he put on 20 pounds of muscle. He'll continue to grow over the next three years.

kab21
05-15-2013, 06:52 PM
At this point I'm not certain anyone has ever seen Justin Upton before. I'm not knocking buxton's power at all. it's a bit of an unknown but if Buxton fills out like JUp then he's not a CF'er.

cmathewson
05-15-2013, 07:37 PM
No we haven't seen one of the best players in the NL. We just watch Twins games and scratch ourselves. Justin Upton has 70 power. That's in the elite category. I don't have the scout's scores of between 30 and 50 depending on the scout. I'd give him a 50. He's 19 and could fill put another 20 pounds on his frame. So it is possible he gets to 65-70 power. If I were a betting man, I would bet on at least 60. I doubt he'll end up in Upton land, but he could.

kab21
05-15-2013, 08:23 PM
No we haven't seen one of the best players in the NL. We just watch Twins games and scratch ourselves. Justin Upton has 70 power. That's in the elite category. I don't have the scout's scores of between 30 and 50 depending on the scout. I'd give him a 50. He's 19 and could fill put another 20 pounds on his frame. So it is possible he gets to 65-70 power. If I were a betting man, I would bet on at least 60. I doubt he'll end up in Upton land, but he could.

Poor attempt at sarcasm.

My complaint in this thread is that people (including national writers) are trying to compare Buxton's potential power to JUp's. It is clearly imo a step (or two) below that. It doesn't matter if Buxton puts on another 20 lbs. JUp is still more athletic than MCab but that's the body type that he's developing. He's becoming massive and he hits massive HR's.

Sano has JUp power and possibly more but Buxton does not. This is not a slam on Buxton. He's probably a top 5 prospect at this point and has a chance at being a perennial AS and MVP candidate. This is a reality check though.

Turd Furgeson
05-15-2013, 09:37 PM
I agree with kab21 here. Justin Upton was the Bryce Harper of a few years ago, to a bit of a lesser extent but he was around the level of a prospect before he was drafted. The guy had tremendous raw power in his first year as a prospect.

People don't talk about Buxton like that. He has about as much power as B.J., maybe slightly more, but he should hit for a lot better average than B.J.. If he had Justin Upton raw power, we'd be talking about the next Griffey.

jokin
05-16-2013, 04:11 AM
I agree with kab21 here. Justin Upton was the Bryce Harper of a few years ago, to a bit of a lesser extent but he was around the level of a prospect before he was drafted. The guy had tremendous raw power in his first year as a prospect.

People don't talk about Buxton like that. He has about as much power as B.J., maybe slightly more, but he should hit for a lot better average than B.J.. If he had Justin Upton raw power, we'd be talking about the next Griffey.

Let's wait until Buxton fills out his frame before we put the "final word" on him. He will put on at least 20 pounds in the next few years, that's virtually certain. He most likely won't hit HRs like Griffey or JUP, but I think he's got excellent prospects for multiple 30/30 seasons and even a possible career year of 40/40. Regardless, I'll be thrilled if Buxton demonstrates just some of the power potential of those other two. Remember Puckett when he first came up, a singles hitter who ended up with a HOF career in the #3 slot with a tremendous batting slash of .318/.360/.477/.837. Buxton is obviously a far bigger and superior athlete. There's no reason to argue against him having huge potential to eclipse Puckett's line.
To put it in perspective to JUP, his career slash is .278/.359/.483/.842. Buxton doesn't appear to be a "hacker" like Puckett. Buck's OBP should end up being higher with much better plate discipline and his BA and SLG will be supported by his blazing speed. A career OPS above .850 and approaching .900 are lofty goals worth aspiring to.

cmathewson
05-16-2013, 07:31 AM
Let's wait until Buxton fills out his frame before we put the "final word" on him. He will put on at least 20 pounds in the next few years, that's virtually certain. He most likely won't hit HRs like Griffey or JUP, but I think he's got excellent prospects for multiple 30/30 seasons and even a possible career year of 40/40. Regardless, I'll be thrilled if Buxton demonstrates just some of the power potential of those other two. Remember Puckett when he first came up, a singles hitter who ended up with a HOF career in the #3 slot with a tremendous batting slash of .318/.360/.477/.837. Buxton is obviously a far bigger and superior athlete. There's no reason to argue against him having huge potential to eclipse Puckett's line.
To put it in perspective to JUP, his career slash is .278/.359/.483/.842. Buxton doesn't appear to be a "hacker" like Puckett. Buck's OBP should end up being higher with much better plate discipline and his BA and SLG will be supported by his blazing speed. A career OPS above .850 and approaching .900 are lofty goals worth aspiring to.

This. Also, I looked back at JUP's scouting reports for when he was Buxton's age. The phrase I saw often was "power potential". I think sometimes people retroactively scout players. Yeah he's huge now. He wasn't that huge then. He did have the one thing Buxon is known for, though--bat speed. It's too early to say that Buxton won't get as big or strong as JUP. How likely is it? I'd give it less than 50%.

ericchri
05-16-2013, 08:47 AM
Of course Buxton at 19(?) still hasn't grown into his body yet and will be putting on weight before he reaches the majors. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his current speed once he adds 30 pounds.

Have you ever looked at Olympic sprinters? Those guys are ripped. It's about putting on the right kind of muscle and using it properly. If he does nothing but add weight, sure, he might slow a hair, but if he puts in the work properly, that added muscle could actually make him faster. Granted a baseball player's training regimen is not going to be optimized to increasing his speed at the expense of other factors, but filling out is certainly not any guarantee that he'll slow down. That usually happens with time and years passing.

Siehbiscuit
05-16-2013, 09:57 AM
I disagree with those that don't think that Buxton will be a power threat. Ken Griffey Jr is easily my favorite player ever and I watched 100's of his games. He was considered a 5 tool guy just like Buxton, but his weakest tool as a "kid" was his power tool which was about a 40-50 projection. He had the perfect swing to generate backspin and loft on the ball that it carried and he became that power hitter as he gained (a lot) weight. Buxton won't always be a "cut" 195-200lb kid. As he fills out his "man" frame and matures there is know doubt he can be a 40 homer guy. Ken Griffey Jr only hit 16HR's as a rookie, then 22, then 27, before he started hitting for great power.

Buxton will fill out and be a major run producer, not just a table setter, by his third season in the big leagues.

kab21
05-16-2013, 10:46 AM
Absolutely nobody has said that buxton won't be a power threat. The problem I have in this thread is that people are now talking about Buxton as a 30 or even 40 HR hitter. This would put him well beyond Harper's status as a prospect.

I did see Justin Upton as a 20 yr old. he had massive power then and it has increased since then.

Turd Furgeson
05-16-2013, 11:02 AM
This. Also, I looked back at JUP's scouting reports for when he was Buxton's age. The phrase I saw often was "power potential". I think sometimes people retroactively scout players. Yeah he's huge now. He wasn't that huge then. He did have the one thing Buxon is known for, though--bat speed. It's too early to say that Buxton won't get as big or strong as JUP. How likely is it? I'd give it less than 50%.

Power potential is essentially, raw power. If anything, I would say that Upton has underperformed on his power potential/raw power a tad in the pros. Aside from this season, so far anyway.

It's not just about being big. As much or more of it has to do with swing mechanics. From what I've seen, Buxton's swing is a bit more on an even plane, through the zone and you're not going to generate a lot of power with a line drive swing like that unless you have Pujols power.

jokin
05-16-2013, 04:37 PM
Absolutely nobody has said that buxton won't be a power threat. The problem I have in this thread is that people are now talking about Buxton as a 30 or even 40 HR hitter. This would put him well beyond Harper's status as a prospect.

I did see Justin Upton as a 20 yr old. he had massive power then and it has increased since then.

I don't think there was anyone alive in 1984 that said Puckett's skinny and stubby body had a chance to hit 30 HRs. Puckett was 24 when he got the early season call-up from AAA. O HRs in 84 and 4 HRs in 85...before he hit 31 in 86 as his body got much stronger.

BTW, Puckett jumped from Cal League A ball in 83, to AAA for 21 games in 84, to starting in CF for the Twins in the first month of the season. I hope we see parallel fast track movement from Buck.

jokin
05-16-2013, 04:52 PM
Power potential is essentially, raw power. If anything, I would say that Upton has underperformed on his power potential/raw power a tad in the pros. Aside from this season, so far anyway.

It's not just about being big. As much or more of it has to do with swing mechanics. From what I've seen, Buxton's swing is a bit more on an even plane, through the zone and you're not going to generate a lot of power with a line drive swing like that unless you have Pujols power.

Hank Aaron would beg to differ. (Not saying Buxton is the next Aaron! Just that Aaron was a line drive hitter).

Hank Aaron: 6'0" 180#s
Albert Pujols: 6'3" 230#s
Byron Buxton: 6'2# ???#s

Shane Wahl
05-16-2013, 06:46 PM
LEN3 stated this evening, citing Tom Kelly, the old curmudgeon himself, not one to throw idle compliments about, who said that Byron Buxton is the fastest player he's ever seen. When asked to qualify, that characterization included faster than Revere, Guzman and Wilson. Confirms what Sickels recently had to say about Buxton's Plate-to-First speed being "unreal".

I posted a video of Buxton's triple in the Buxton thread. He gets to third in 11 seconds. It's crazy.

Turd Furgeson
05-16-2013, 08:16 PM
So what's the argument now? You guys are throwing out Hall of Famers to draw your comparisons from. No one is saying that Buxton has no shot of ever hitting 30 home runs. To say he has BJ Upton power is to say mid 20 home run power, with the potential to touch 30. If you are saying he has Justin Upton power, that is someone who sits at 30 home runs with the potential to touch 40. There's quite a difference there.

There's a lot more that goes into home run power then how big the guy is. Does he undercut the ball, does he create a lot of torque and backspin? Bat speed. Does he generate power with his legs? I mean, there's a more as well.

It's a question of probability. Could Buxton sustain 30 home run seasons? I suppose there is an outside chance of that but based on what he's shown thus far, it's not likely. That's all I'm saying.

jokin
05-16-2013, 09:07 PM
So what's the argument now? You guys are throwing out Hall of Famers to draw your comparisons from. No one is saying that Buxton has no shot of ever hitting 30 home runs. To say he has BJ Upton power is to say mid 20 home run power, with the potential to touch 30. If you are saying he has Justin Upton power, that is someone who sits at 30 home runs with the potential to touch 40. There's quite a difference there.

There's a lot more that goes into home run power then how big the guy is. Does he undercut the ball, does he create a lot of torque and backspin? Bat speed. Does he generate power with his legs? I mean, there's a more as well.

It's a question of probability. Could Buxton sustain 30 home run seasons? I suppose there is an outside chance of that but based on what he's shown thus far, it's not likely. That's all I'm saying.



That's so true...... except that someone just recently posted:


The problem I have in this thread is that people are now talking about Buxton as a 30... HR hitter...

I get the mechanical points in your second paragraph. Uber-talented, but young, raw players learn and adapt and tend to incorporate some of those finer mechancal underpinnings into their games as they mature.

I don't think anyone on this board has said that Buxton currently possesses JUP power. Many national experts see a potential ceiling to his career arc that could possibly contain "some" JUP characteristics. You've pointed out that at this point he swings more on a level plane. But his power rating has recently been upgraded, as have other phenoms as they continue to compile experience and their bodies mature. Examples were given. By all reports, Buxton is as athletic as many of the greats, and his body is still sinewy raw- but no one has said that he has already hit peak physical maturity, no more assessments will need to be changed and that he should be classified as an all-time great. It's all about potential at this point. And some of us on TD, as well as the national experts, have pointed out that line drive hitters can still have power components in their games. That's all I'm saying.

kab21
05-16-2013, 09:07 PM
I don't think there was anyone alive in 1984 that said Puckett's skinny and stubby body had a chance to hit 30 HRs. Puckett was 24 when he got the early season call-up from AAA. O HRs in 84 and 4 HRs in 85...before he hit 31 in 86 as his body got much stronger.

BTW, Puckett jumped from Cal League A ball in 83, to AAA for 21 games in 84, to starting in CF for the Twins in the first month of the season. I hope we see parallel fast track movement from Buck.

you still aren't getting it. Puckett might have hit 30+ HR once in his career but that doesn't mean that his power tool compares to a player that I consider to be top ten in the MLB in raw power. JUp is a beast. Sano's raw power compares to Upton's and potentially is even better. Buxton's raw power does not and potentially does not.

jokin
05-16-2013, 10:06 PM
you still aren't getting it. Puckett might have hit 30+ HR once in his career but that doesn't mean that his power tool compares to a player that I consider to be top ten in the MLB in raw power. JUp is a beast. Sano's raw power compares to Upton's and potentially is even better. Buxton's raw power does not and potentially does not.

I have been getting it. I have only claimed that Buxton has a power potential higher than his current rating....

Oh by the way....I think our boy is going to soon earn a new nickname....after his 9th inning, game-winning Grand Slam tonight (8th HR of the season)....How does "Big-Time Buxton" grab you?

30whales
05-16-2013, 10:09 PM
I have been getting it. I have only claimed that Buxton has a power potential higher than his current rating....

Oh by the way....I think our boy is going to soon earn a new nickname....after his 9th inning, game-winning Grand Slam tonight (8th HR of the season)....How does "Big-Time Buxton" grab you?

It would be pretty cool if someone got their hands on a video of that. The video of him hitting that triple was impressive!

jokin
05-16-2013, 10:12 PM
It would be pretty cool if someone got their hands on a video of that. The video of him hitting that triple was impressive!

That triple was big-time- someone else on TD said it clocked out at 11 seconds? Crazy! I have a feeling Jimminy Crikket will have a link before long. Going to see the Kernels this weekend. I can't remember a time since the early 80s when it was a more exciting time for the Twins farm system.

30whales
05-16-2013, 10:21 PM
That triple was big-time- someone else on TD said it clocked out at 11 seconds? Crazy! I have a feeling Jimminy Crikket will have a link before long. Going to see the Kernels this weekend. I can't remember a time since the early 80s when it was a more exciting time for the Twins farm system.

I am jealous. I wish I could go see some of these minor league teams but too far!

30whales
05-16-2013, 10:24 PM
Here it is!

http://youtu.be/ESFtlpmPxT4

kab21
05-16-2013, 10:45 PM
I have been getting it. I have only claimed that Buxton has a power potential higher than his current rating....

That's not at all what you have said in this thread nor what I have disagreed with. You have directly said that his power tool is comparable to Justin Upton's. that is false.

amjgt
05-16-2013, 10:49 PM
Walk off Grand Slam, down 3, it LITERALLY doesn't get any better than that.

jokin
05-16-2013, 10:53 PM
That's not at all what you have said in this thread nor what I have disagreed with. You have directly said that his power tool is comparable to Justin Upton's. that is false.

I most certainly have not said that his power tool is comparable to JUPs. I said that it appears that while he was being compared to BUP, it should also have been mentioned that he has some potential to have a power potential to hit with more power, ala JUP, but not exactly like JUP ( as Casey Stengel said, you could look it up). Peter Gammons concurs. I'll trust his opinion that I'm on to something, that maybe there is evidence that Buck's power rating among the experts is on the rise. (Well, that and his 450 foot Grand Slam in the bottom of the 9th tonight.:s-ctf:)

jokin
05-16-2013, 10:57 PM
Here it is!

http://youtu.be/ESFtlpmPxT4

Thanks, 30whales! I detected a lot of bat speed, turning on a fastball reportedly clocked at 98. That ball was out of the park in what seemed like less than a second!

Can't wait for the weekend.

jokin
05-17-2013, 12:13 AM
Reverse angle of the HR. Much louder, watch the bat speed.

Byron Buxton game-winning grand slam - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oMB-WGGSXnM)

amjgt
05-17-2013, 06:56 AM
I know I wasn't the only one that was nervous when he was jumping on home.

SD Buhr
05-17-2013, 08:35 AM
I know I wasn't the only one that was nervous when he was jumping on home.

I admit I had that thought when I saw him jump at home. Then again, I was just happy his teammates waited at home for him this time and the runners all crossed home ahead of him instead of having everyone tackle him as he rounded second base the way they did for Travis Harrison's grand slam "single" a couple weeks back. Lesson well learned, apparently.

cmathewson
05-17-2013, 08:43 AM
That's not at all what you have said in this thread nor what I have disagreed with. You have directly said that his power tool is comparable to Justin Upton's. that is false.

Are these claims binary? No? I didn't think so. To qualify as being comparable to JUP, he needs to be "somewhat comparable", not "exactly comparable."

Turd Furgeson
05-17-2013, 09:34 AM
Let's be clear, Justin Upton has 70-80 power. There may be more that would firmly put him in the 80 camp than the 70 camp.

Byron Buxton likely has 55-65 power. At least that would be the range I would expect most scouts to put him in. Still above average, to potentially well above average and that's really good for someone who profiles as an elite center field defender, base runner etc.

Siehbiscuit
05-17-2013, 10:18 AM
One thing that separates both Upton brothers right now from Buxton is the ability to hit for average. Justin may have 70's power but his low contact rate might translate to only 35-40 homers in a good season (See Adam Dunn, Giancarlo Stanton).

Buxton may only be a 50's power guy, but his contact rate is better than Justin Upton's so Buxton to be in the 30's isn't at all out of the question. The # of homeruns isn't the best way to figure who has the best "tool" or most "power potential." Think Mike Trout's season a year ago. I would say that Justin Upton has a higher "power" tool than Mike Trout. But Trout may hit more homers than him some years, because he will make solid contact more often. Upton's homers may even travel farther, but a HR is still a HR.

There is no doubt in my mind that Buxton has the potential to have a Barry Bonds (pre-'roids) or Ken Griffey Jr type of career based on his skill set and projection. BJ Upton is SKINNY and has never filled out (equals bad comparison, IMO). Buxton is bigger NOW. Justin Upton and Miguel Sano are closer in comparison in my opinion than JUpton and Buxton.

Buxton can and will fill out (and get his man muscles) and be a regular 30-30 guy soon.

...and please don't say that I am predicting multiple MVP's and a HOF career for Buxton. Only he has that potential.

Turd Furgeson
05-17-2013, 02:33 PM
Jason Parks had this to say recently:

Peter (Georgia): Back on Buxton, if all things come to fruition, what kind of power/speed numbers are we talking about here? Could he reach Mike Trout (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432) levels?
Jason Parks: Mike Trout (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432) is a freak and I'm hesitant to put other players in his universe, but Buxton has a crazy ceiling and I think the speed numbers could be there. I think the power will develop, but I don't see him as a 30+ HR (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR) type.

Peter (Georgia): In fairness not many ppl threw 30Hr projections on Trout either, so Buxton is wait and see, but would you call the power average to plus now?
Jason Parks: I wouldn't. I'd say plus potential [key word] is possible, and maybe more as he finds his body and his swing.

Not that Parks is the ultimate authority on this issue of course, but he seems to echo the same sentiments that I have been.

cmb0252
05-17-2013, 02:33 PM
From Matt Eddy's chat over at baseball America:


Reportedly Buxton's walk off grand slam last night went 450 feet. While Buxton only has 6 HRs most of them have been no doubters. What is his future power potential?

Matt Eddy: Substantial. Think of all the five-tool big league center fielders playing right now. He can be one of them in time. You don't need to apologize for Buxton having "just" six homers. He's got 20 extra-bats hits in 38 games as a middle-diamond teen in the Midwest League (.594). That's amazing.

BA gave Buxton a 60 grade for power which should be 15-20 HRs for a CFer. Buxton is still raw and once he fills out more could end up having more power but comparing his power upside to Upton's is a little much for my blood. At age 24 Upton already has 121 HRs, 13 on the year, and a 31 HR campaign when he was 22. Personally I can see JUp having at least one 35+ HR season, if not multiple, if he can stay healthy. As I say this, I could also see Buxton having a few years in the mid 20's for HRs.

Power wise Upton >Buxton. But, if Buxton keeps developing he should end up better than Upton in every other category.

jokin
05-17-2013, 03:19 PM
Jason Parks had this to say recently:

Peter (Georgia): Back on Buxton, if all things come to fruition, what kind of power/speed numbers are we talking about here? Could he reach Mike Trout (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432) levels?
Jason Parks: Mike Trout (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432) is a freak and I'm hesitant to put other players in his universe, but Buxton has a crazy ceiling and I think the speed numbers could be there. I think the power will develop, but I don't see him as a 30+ HR (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR) type.

Peter (Georgia): In fairness not many ppl threw 30Hr projections on Trout either, so Buxton is wait and see, but would you call the power average to plus now?
Jason Parks: I wouldn't. I'd say plus potential [key word] is possible, and maybe more as he finds his body and his swing.

Not that Parks is the ultimate authority on this issue of course, but he seems to echo the same sentiments that I have been.

I think we're all coming to an agreement. Myself and others on this thread have been saying "plus potential" all along. Buxton's 450 HR last night doesn't exactly hurt our case. I wonder if Jason Parks likes "maybe more", "Buxton's body and his swing" and his power potential after last night's blast?

jokin
05-17-2013, 03:26 PM
One thing that separates both Upton brothers right now from Buxton is the ability to hit for average. Justin may have 70's power but his low contact rate might translate to only 35-40 homers in a good season (See Adam Dunn, Giancarlo Stanton).

Buxton may only be a 50's power guy, but his contact rate is better than Justin Upton's so Buxton to be in the 30's isn't at all out of the question. The # of homeruns isn't the best way to figure who has the best "tool" or most "power potential." Think Mike Trout's season a year ago. I would say that Justin Upton has a higher "power" tool than Mike Trout. But Trout may hit more homers than him some years, because he will make solid contact more often. Upton's homers may even travel farther, but a HR is still a HR.

There is no doubt in my mind that Buxton has the potential to have a Barry Bonds (pre-'roids) or Ken Griffey Jr type of career based on his skill set and projection. BJ Upton is SKINNY and has never filled out (equals bad comparison, IMO). Buxton is bigger NOW. Justin Upton and Miguel Sano are closer in comparison in my opinion than JUpton and Buxton.

Buxton can and will fill out (and get his man muscles) and be a regular 30-30 guy soon.

...and please don't say that I am predicting multiple MVP's and a HOF career for Buxton. Only he has that potential.

Excellent post and well-stated. It is all about the potential. Buxton is already hitting tape-measure HRs, for even his power-potential at this point, the sky is the limit.

Turd Furgeson
05-17-2013, 03:41 PM
I think we're all coming to an agreement. Myself and others on this thread have been saying "plus potential" all along. Buxton's 450 HR last night doesn't exactly hurt our case. I wonder if Jason Parks likes "maybe more", "Buxton's body and his swing" and his power potential after last night's blast?

This is what we've been arguing with against,



If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers.


What is the best feature of Justin Upton? His plus plus power. He had it going into the minors when he was drafted. Byron Buxton does not have plus plus power. He could possibly have plus power maybe more if the stars align. Do you see the difference?

jokin
05-17-2013, 04:08 PM
This is what we've been arguing with against,



What is the best feature of Justin Upton? His plus plus power. He had it going into the minors when he was drafted. Byron Buxton does not have plus plus power. He could possibly have plus power maybe more if the stars align. Do you see the difference?

Again, you're picking needless nits for what reason? I of course, never said that Buxton has "plus plus power". Rather than quoting an isolated statement, why not acknowledge that this entire discussion from the onset has been couched in "potential", "possiblys" and "maybes". The reassessment upgrades of Buxton's power potential by the professional national experts are being constantly rewritten this spring, as Buxton's stars appear to be aligning. All that this side of the debate has said is that Buxton's power potential needed to be taken more into consideration than was the previous general perception ("Buxton is BJ"), line drive hitters can still be home run hitters, and that 30/30 seasons were definitely within his reach.

cmathewson
05-17-2013, 04:08 PM
I don't care about how guys are rated. But it is odd that you say Upton had 80 power as a 19 year old and Buxton only has 70 speed. The only 80 power guy I've seen in the last few years is Sano, and Upton did not have Sano's power when he was 19. Meanwhile, if any player has 80 speed, it's Buxton. Several scouts have said he's the fastest player they've ever seen.

mike wants wins
05-17-2013, 04:16 PM
Back to the timeline......just did a quick search....of last year's top 10 WAR position players:

2 came up at 23
3 came up at 22
1 at 21
3 at 20
1 at 19

So, it would not be rushing him, if he's truly elite, to have him up here in 2 years.....is he on that pace? I looked because I had previously read online that elite player come up earlier than average players.....

jokin
05-17-2013, 04:24 PM
I don't care about how guys are rated. But it is odd that you say Upton had 80 power as a 19 year old and Buxton only has 70 speed. The only 80 power guy I've seen in the last few years is Sano, and Upton did not have Sano's power when he was 19. Meanwhile, if any player has 80 speed, it's Buxton. Several scouts have said he's the fastest player they've ever seen.

And Tom Kelly, as well, who never talks in sterling absolutes about anybody.

Turd Furgeson
05-17-2013, 04:29 PM
I don't care about how guys are rated. But it is odd that you say Upton had 80 power as a 19 year old and Buxton only has 70 speed. The only 80 power guy I've seen in the last few years is Sano, and Upton did not have Sano's power when he was 19. Meanwhile, if any player has 80 speed, it's Buxton. Several scouts have said he's the fastest player they've ever seen.

Who said that Buxton has 70 speed? I know I did not. Scouts generally err on the side of caution when rating players, though. They usually wait to see a player multiple times, listen to scouting reports or what have you before putting an 80 on a tool. I remember it took awhile before Sano was considered to have 80 power.

That said, Gallo probably has 80 power right now, along with Sano. Harper most definitely had 80 power. Giancarlo Stanton had 80 power.

Also, Buxton is not the fastest player in the minors. That would be Billy Hamilton. The guy who stole 155 bases last year.

jokin
05-17-2013, 04:36 PM
Back to the timeline......just did a quick search....of last year's top 10 WAR position players:

2 came up at 23
3 came up at 22
1 at 21
3 at 20
1 at 19

So, it would not be rushing him, if he's truly elite, to have him up here in 2 years.....is he on that pace? I looked because I had previously read online that elite player come up earlier than average players.....

I brought up Machado's career minor league numbers preceding his call-up at age 20. They of course, are less than "break down the door", overwhelming. Seth brought up a legitimately good point that, of course, there are other reasons besides ridiculous Trout-like stat lines for fast-tracking a prospect tabbed as "elite".

Unfortunately, I could only come to the sneaking suspicion that were the Orioles and Twins situations exactly reversed, that Machado, with his just-OK numbers at the A level, would have played not 39 games in Low A before his promotion to A+, but likely a whole season there. And that his subsequent much worse numbers at A+, would have also merited another full year at Fort Myers- so that this year, what would have been his 4th year in the minors, he would be playing a combined year of A+ and AA, instead of starting at 3B for a playoff-contending team.

jokin
05-17-2013, 04:39 PM
Who said that Buxton has 70 speed? I know I did not.
Scouts generally err on the side of caution when rating players, though. They usually wait to see a player multiple times, listen to scouting reports or what have you before putting an 80 on a tool. I remember it took awhile before Sano was considered to have 80 power.

That said, Gallo probably has 80 power right now, along with Sano. Harper most definitely had 80 power. Giancarlo Stanton had 80 power.

Also, Buxton is not the fastest player in the minors. That would be Billy Hamilton. The guy who stole 155 bases last year.

And John Sickels stated that Buxton's speed compared favorably with Hamilton. (I'm not saying that Buck will steal 155 bases!) Sickels:
" I literally said "holy ****" out loud. There are reports that he's been timed at 3.70 down the first base line and I completely believe it. He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/cincinnati-reds) prospect Billy Hamilton (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/129752/billy-hamilton)."


Scouts generally err on the side of caution when rating players, though.

Much like scouts erring on the side of caution with Buxton's power potential.

Turd Furgeson
05-17-2013, 04:49 PM
And John Sickels stated that Buxton's speed compared favorably to Hamilton. (I'm not saying that Buck will steal 155 bases!)

Not exactly.

"He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/cincinnati-reds) prospect Billy Hamilton (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/129752/billy-hamilton)." John Sickels

I mean, he's essentially said he has 80 speed which is amazing enough. I've just heard plenty say that Billy Hamilton is something beyond 80 speed. Though there isn't an official numbering system for it, it's somewhere beyond that.

jokin
05-17-2013, 04:59 PM
Not exactly.

"He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/cincinnati-reds) prospect Billy Hamilton (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/129752/billy-hamilton)." John Sickels

I mean, he's essentially said he has 80 speed which is amazing enough. I've just heard plenty say that Billy Hamilton is something beyond 80 speed. Though there isn't an official numbering system for it, it's somewhere beyond that.


I supplied the entire quote in my post. Being mentioned in the same paragraph with All- World speedster Hamilton, couched in drop-jaw epithet verbal amazement, implies that Buxton's speed is pretty special, too.

cmathewson
05-17-2013, 05:07 PM
Well, it's good to see Buxton mentioned in the same discussions as Hamilton, Trout, and Harper. I doubt he has any one tool to equal their best tools, except perhaps batting eye. But his combination of tools puts him in an elite class.

As to the original question, I'd be surprised if he is not in the majors before age 22. He could jump two levels this year alone. Worst case, he starts his age 20 year in AA.

Turd Furgeson
05-17-2013, 05:07 PM
You did, but you edited your post after I already posted my reply. That wasn't originally in there.

That said, of course it's special, it's a friggin 70-80 tool! That would make him faster than the vast majority of the league.

cmb0252
05-17-2013, 06:16 PM
This is one great conversation and both sides have done a great job arguing their sides. One thing I would like to note is that the scouts grading system has some gray areas. An example below:

A 80 grade fastball for a RHP isn't the same as a 80 grade fastball for a LHP. LHP tend to throw slower than RHP but don't tell the Red's Chapman this. If a RHP throws a 100 mph fastball and a lefty throws a 98 mph fastball even though the speed is 2 mph different they get the same grade. Movement also can affect a fastball grade.

I bring this up because while both Hamilton and Buxton have 80 speed I have read they are a little different. Hamilton has better burst which results in more stolen bases while Buxton has better top end speed which should lead to more extra base hits. Dont get me wrong, to have 80 speed they both have ridiculous top speed/burst, but there speed has been noted as different.

jokin
05-17-2013, 06:37 PM
This is one great conversation and both sides have done a great job arguing their sides. One thing I would like to note is that the scouts grading system has some gray areas. An example below:

A 80 grade fastball for a RHP isn't the same as a 80 grade fastball for a LHP. LHP tend to throw slower than RHP but don't tell the Red's Chapman this. If a RHP throws a 100 mph fastball and a lefty throws a 98 mph fastball even though the speed is 2 mph different they get the same grade. Movement also can affect a fastball grade.

I bring this up because while both Hamilton and Buxton have 80 speed I have read they are a little different. Hamilton has better burst which results in more stolen bases while Buxton has better top end speed which should lead to more extra base hits. Dont get me wrong, to have 80 speed they both have ridiculous top speed/burst, but there speed has been noted as different.

And, in terms of baserunning, while Hamilton has mastered the stolen base (no doubt due in no small part due to his first step quickness), Buxton is still learning the finer points of base stealing, ie which pitch to go on, lead establishment, etc. (CS in 7 of 23 attempts, he's stealing at a career 72.9%, with 69.6% at Class A ball, not too bad, but not great.... while Hamilton is 82.5% for his career, with a 83.7% rate at Class A ball.)

Regardless, either player is going to track down just about everything hit their way in CF (if that's where Hamilton ends up- that's where the Reds have him this year).

jokin
05-23-2013, 05:42 PM
Though Buck has slowed down recently from his torrid start, long-term he remains 1 or 1A on Twins prospects lists and still projects to be top-ten in all of baseball in the midseason rankings...Thanks to HOFer Paul Molitor for adding further expert support and opinion to the notion that Buxton has legitimate projection as a 30/30 guy. Here's the ESPN1500 audio link:

Paul Molitor says Byron Buxton can be a 30/30 player (http://www.1500espn.com/#)

diehardtwinsfan
05-23-2013, 07:04 PM
Back to the timeline......just did a quick search....of last year's top 10 WAR position players:

2 came up at 23
3 came up at 22
1 at 21
3 at 20
1 at 19

So, it would not be rushing him, if he's truly elite, to have him up here in 2 years.....is he on that pace? I looked because I had previously read online that elite player come up earlier than average players.....

I'm not sure why you needed to look up that elite players tend to come up earlier than average players. That's the nature of the game.

That said, these stats are complete cherry picking. We don't know yet if Buxton will be elite. You are simply pointing out that today's elite players came up at a young age, but you are ignoring the failure of every player that came up at a young age that isn't elite... The fact that the 10 best position players were 23 or under when they arrived says absolutely nothing about whether or not Buxton should be on the Trout timeline or not.

jokin
06-11-2013, 01:14 AM
I posted a video of Buxton's triple in the Buxton thread. He gets to third in 11 seconds. It's crazy.

The latest video from today's game on Buck's triple shows Buxton cruising in to thrid in just around 10 seconds. Byron Buxton triple June 12 2013 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OxX4ZX05WY) And it looked like he was easing it back as he approached third. Unreal.

mike wants wins
06-21-2013, 09:02 AM
So, anyone care to explain why Buxton is not promoted? I continue to be amazed by the way Ryan is running this org this year.

Oldgoat_MN
06-21-2013, 10:33 AM
So, anyone care to explain why Buxton is not promoted? I continue to be amazed by the way Ryan is running this org this year.

Given that I always keep in mind that a prospect is just a prospect and many have been moved too fast, I am usually OK with going slow.

There is a point, however, where it seems ill-advised to keep them at a particular level. Had he played for the Twins, would Pujols have had to wait until he was 23 to win ROY?

If Buxton struggles in A+, fine! Everything I read about this kid suggests he will bear down and make it work.

howieramone
06-21-2013, 11:01 AM
So, anyone care to explain why Buxton is not promoted? I continue to be amazed by the way Ryan is running this org this year.So am I. I can certainly see him winning the Baseball Executive of the Year in the next few years. Those who have studied the inevitable rebuilding process faced by most organizations over time, are witnessing a master at work.

diehardtwinsfan
06-21-2013, 01:06 PM
Buxton is going to get promoted, I'm not sure why exactly people are getting their panties up in a wad b/c it doesn't happen on their timeline. Moving Buxton to Fort Meyers is going to involve making other moves as well. It's not as simple as just getting him a plane ticket. No doubt this will happen soon.

Also, if this is bothering Buxton, then we have much bigger problems here.

Sconnie
06-21-2013, 01:17 PM
2nd to 3rd in what looks to be 9 - 10 steps and a slide

mike wants wins
06-21-2013, 02:07 PM
Nice personal attack......I thought this board was for discussing baseball stuff, good, bad, middle.....

John Bonnes
06-21-2013, 02:36 PM
Nice personal attack......I thought this board was for discussing baseball stuff, good, bad, middle.....

Just a reminder to everyone - rather than comment on inappropriate posts, please notify administrators using the icon at the bottom of each post that looks like a triangle with an exclamation point it it. FWIW, mike wants wins did just that after his quote, but just a tip for everyone else.

mike wants wins
06-21-2013, 02:43 PM
sorry....

jokin
06-21-2013, 05:21 PM
Buxton is going to get promoted, I'm not sure why exactly people are getting their panties up in a wad b/c it doesn't happen on their timeline. Moving Buxton to Fort Meyers is going to involve making other moves as well. It's not as simple as just getting him a plane ticket. No doubt this will happen soon.

Also, if this is bothering Buxton, then we have much bigger problems here.

Who said anything about promoting Buxton on "their" timeline? Using objective criteria for how and when Buxton should be promoted has been the point of this entire thread.

With a rarefied talent such as Buxton, the "other moves" machinations as an excuse for not fast-tracking is a flimsy one, at best. That Buxton hasn't been moved, what with the trading of the only 2 legitimate major league CFs and the resultant crying need for projectable CFers up and down the organization, it's just another par for the course example of the Twins slowplay, ala, Gibson, Sano. It's certainly not surprising, for the Twins organization, past is prologue, it's the reason I started the thread.

diehardtwinsfan
06-21-2013, 05:31 PM
Who said anything about promoting Buxton on "their" timeline? Using objective criteria for how and when Buxton should be promoted has been the point of this entire thread.

With a rarefied talent such as Buxton, the "other moves" machinations as an excuse for not fast-tracking is a flimsy one, at best. That Buxton hasn't been moved, what with the trading of the only 2 legitimate major league CFs and the resultant crying need for projectable CFers up and down the organization, it's just another par for the course example of the Twins slowplay, ala, Gibson, Sano. It's certainly not surprising, for the Twins organization, past is prologue, it's the reason I started the thread.

I think you overreacting, which is my point. An extra week or two at CR is hardly going to hurt the kid's development, and as I said, if it bothers him, he has bigger issues, as in how is he going to handle real adversity when he eventually struggles?

Also, this org is hardly deft of CF talent. Even trading Span and Revere (and I'm not sure I'd call Revere a legitimate CF, but that's a different debate), they have plenty. Morales, Buxton, and Kepler all come to mind, and two of them are fairly high regarded prospects, and Hicks is a pretty decent prospect in his own right.

My concern with this "slowplay", is that I can find plenty of examples of what rushing a prospect does to their development, and most aren't good. Buxton is going to finish this season in Fort Meyers, and if he does really well, may start in NB. That's already pretty fast, and an extra week or two in Florida won't change that.

jokin
06-21-2013, 05:53 PM
I think you overreacting, which is my point. An extra week or two at CR is hardly going to hurt the kid's development, and as I said, if it bothers him, he has bigger issues, as in how is he going to handle real adversity when he eventually struggles?

Also, this org is hardly deft of CF talent. Even trading Span and Revere (and I'm not sure I'd call Revere a legitimate CF, but that's a different debate), they have plenty. Morales, Buxton, and Kepler all come to mind, and two of them are fairly high regarded prospects, and Hicks is a pretty decent prospect in his own right.

My concern with this "slowplay", is that I can find plenty of examples of what rushing a prospect does to their development, and most aren't good. Buxton is going to finish this season in Fort Meyers, and if he does really well, may start in NB. That's already pretty fast, and an extra week or two in Florida won't change that.

Overreacting? Hardly. This thread curiously echoes the threads on Gibson and Sano. Your side keeps coming up with more admonitions to be patient, wait for more consistency to develop, defensive liabilities that need to be addressed, et al, ad infinitum.....blech! "Just a week or two won't make a difference" becomes a recurring pattern and theme, it was used in April, May and now, it looks like, June, as well. As has been stated elsewhere, similarly talented guys in other organizations are promoted on their own timeline, not a cookie cutter approach that appears to be the extent of the Twins thinking here.

This guy is a very, very rare legitimate 5-tool, major-league-ready defender. He has been compared, not just by me, but by the reams of professional scouts, managers, pundits and evaluators, to the very best who play the game now, and the very best of all time. So again, who is overreacting here? The defenders of the FO of any move they make with their stultified promotion process?, or the statistical facts and video evidence presented in this thread, alongside the multitudes of outside, unbiased professionals who have tabbed both Sano, and now, even more so, Buxton as very special players deserving of being on a much faster track to the majors, alongside similarly talented peers who have made the jump from other organizations?

As far as CF organizational depth, you are probably the only person left who would still have Morales come to mind, Kepler probably ends up in a corner spot, and oh, we have already mentioned Buxton, why did you mention him again? So really, there's just Hicks and Buxton, and the jury is still out on Hicks. Given the rate of Buxton's current progression and the Twins history, sometime in 2016 is probably the absolute earliest that we can expect Buxton to become ensconced in the Twins' CF spot. When you consider how other organizations have handled such elite-level talent, it's really laughable to contemplate that likely reality for Buxton.

jokin
06-21-2013, 06:39 PM
So am I. I can certainly see him winning the Baseball Executive of the Year in the next few years. Those who have studied the inevitable rebuilding process faced by most organizations over time, are witnessing a master at work.

If I didn't know better, this sure sounds like sock puppet theatre. I know you're not one, but some of your posts surely could have been produced at One Twins Way.

Having said that, I'm guessing that your "witnessing a master at work" line shows you simply aspire to satire.

I'm grateful that there are differences of opinions. If you are in fact, serious in your admonition, I'd be most interested in hearing the reasons and scenario you see that will play out your prediction. I'd also like to hear why you take such issue with those who don't see the need to have to wait until 2018 for Ryan to make himself worthy of the award.

diehardtwinsfan
06-21-2013, 08:53 PM
Overreacting? Hardly. This thread curiously echoes the threads on Gibson and Sano. Your side keeps coming up with more admonitions to be patient, wait for more consistency to develop, defensive liabilities that need to be addressed, et al, ad infinitum.....blech! "Just a week or two won't make a difference" becomes a recurring pattern and theme, it was used in April, May and now, it looks like, June, as well. As has been stated elsewhere, similarly talented guys in other organizations are promoted on their own timeline, not a cookie cutter approach that appears to be the extent of the Twins thinking here.

I'm not sure you know what "my side" stands for. I think you are arguing against an argument that you think I'm trying to make. I have no doubt Buxton gets promoted, and I expect it, but worrying that hasn't happened today or tomorrow doesn't bother me b/c I know it will happen soon. It has nothing to do with defensive liabilities and what not. And in April, he had no business being promoted... same with May. There's this thing called a sample size, and if you've forgotten, he struggled a bit in May as the league adjusted. He clearly adjusted again himself, but that's a part of what this is about.


This guy is a very, very rare legitimate 5-tool, major-league-ready defender. He has been compared, not just by me, but by the reams of professional scouts, managers, pundits and evaluators, to the very best who play the game now, and the very best of all time. So again, who is overreacting here? The defenders of the FO of any move they make with their stultified promotion process?, or the statistical facts and video evidence presented in this thread, alongside the multitudes of outside, unbiased professionals who have tabbed both Sano, and now, even more so, Buxton as very special players deserving of being on a much faster track to the majors, alongside similarly talented peers who have made the jump from other organizations?

I suggest you spend some time reading up on minorleague ball and other sites. Lots of minor league players compare favorably to hall of famers as they come up... and then the year after, people compare the next round favorably to the HOF guys or that hot prospect from the year before. If you are advocating promoting him based on comparison, there's something seriously wrong with your approach.

I get that he's a 5 tool guy, and again, if you look around the minors you'll find that being 5 tool isn't exactly rare. They flame out all the time, one good example is some guy named Benson that seems rather famous around these parts.


As far as CF organizational depth, you are probably the only person left who would still have Morales come to mind, Kepler probably ends up in a corner spot, and oh, we have already mentioned Buxton, why did you mention him again? So really, there's just Hicks and Buxton, and the jury is still out on Hicks. Given the rate of Buxton's current progression and the Twins history, sometime in 2016 is probably the absolute earliest that we can expect Buxton to become ensconced in the Twins' CF spot. When you consider how other organizations have handled such elite-level talent, it's really laughable to contemplate that likely reality for Buxton.

You said centerfield depth. I listed 3 guys with a potential future and noted that two of the three were pretty decent prospects (and I'll give you a hint, but Morales wasn't who I was thinking about, it was Buxton and Kepler)... and added that the guy in the bigs right now is a prospect as well. Morales is exactly what you say this team is lacking... depth. He's still young enough to have the potential to be a prospect, and in AA right now, could factor as someone to help out next year should this recent improvement stick. And that's with me forgetting about Derek Rodriguez, who is also a CF. This team doesn't have a problem with CF depth in the minors, it has a problem with CF depth in AAA. There's a big big big big big difference. And when I consider other organizations, I see some that take their time bringing up prospects, and others like the Mets who rush them as you would suggest... How did that work out for Carlos Gomez again? He's on his 3rd team and finally this year having a sort of break out season, and for every Gomez, there's a guy like Delmon who was rushed and amounted to nothing. He'd have been much better served spending more time in the minors learning his trade.

As for the Twins' progression, you ignore history... Remember that elite kid named Mauer? He got up pretty quick. Garza? It happened. You forget that at the end of Ryan's tenure, they had a bad couple of drafts and had no one worth rushing.