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Jeremy Nygaard
04-20-2013, 10:31 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1595-Draft-Board-v-3-0-(4-20)

Pitz
04-21-2013, 08:09 AM
Thanks for the great write-up and solid info Jeremy. I was just starting to think that Manaea was becoming the more and more likely pick for the Twins, but your placement of Stewart ahead of him has me rethinking. Of course there's still quite a bit of time until the draft for things to change.
I was wondering if you think (or have any inside info) that the Twins' drafting of a lot of college relief pitchers last year is a strategy that they will look to employ again this year, or if it was just something that fit that particular draft/talent. Was it a strategy that they employed and they were targeting those players, or was it just kind of how the draft played out?

Dance with Disco Dan
04-21-2013, 09:27 AM
For the last two weeks I've been warming to the idea of taking Kohl Stewart even though prep arms are the biggest crap-shoots in the draft. I would really like to see the Twins take a pitcher with a top of the rotation ceiling and I am leery of the performance fall-offs by Manaea and Stanek. I don't believe Stewart's Texas A&M commit will provide him nearly as much leverage as if he had signed elsewhere. Johnny Football will only be a Sophomore and is not likely headed to the NFL early because he's so small. The gamble in me says go for it.

Ultimately, I will be happy when clearer heads than mine take Manaea. For now, its fun to dream on the next Texas fire-baller in my team's system.

Badsmerf
04-21-2013, 09:36 AM
Thanks for the great write-up and solid info Jeremy. I was just starting to think that Manaea was becoming the more and more likely pick for the Twins, but your placement of Stewart ahead of him has me rethinking. Of course there's still quite a bit of time until the draft for things to change.
I was wondering if you think (or have any inside info) that the Twins' drafting of a lot of college relief pitchers last year is a strategy that they will look to employ again this year, or if it was just something that fit that particular draft/talent. Was it a strategy that they employed and they were targeting those players, or was it just kind of how the draft played out?
I believe the thought process went into drafting pitchers that have good velocity and can miss bats. Twins believe they could convert some of them and the others might be able to rise through the system quickly in relief. There was more focus put on power arms. Rob Anthony alluded to it in his interview that is on the Twins page. Needless to say, this was a huge shift from taking control pitch to contact guys for the last 10+ years (I've only been watching drafts for 10 years).

kab21
04-21-2013, 10:25 AM
Taking Stewart would be against everything the Twins have always done but I like it. Take someone with true ace potential and hope for the best. For me is moving into that tier with Bryant/Frazier/Meadows (edit - Denney also) and possibly Manaea. I feel uneasy about Manaea for some reason.

gunnarthor
04-21-2013, 10:41 AM
Needless to say, this was a huge shift from taking control pitch to contact guys for the last 10+ years (I've only been watching drafts for 10 years).

Actually, Deron Johnson has been doing that since he took over the draft in 08. The pitches he's taken have generally been high risk power arms - Bullock, Bashore, Gibson, Bard, Hunt, Gutierrez, Bullock, Chargios, Boer, Berrios (and, apparently, he gets so excited about them, he doesn't usually get past the "B"s list).

Although it isn't as simple as that - Johnson did take a control guy like Wimmers and Radcliff took fireballers like Garza, Johnson, Durbin and Crain.

gunnarthor
04-21-2013, 10:56 AM
Nice write up Jeremy. So one possible scenario for the Twins could be: Astros take Stewart and save a few bucks, Cubs jump on Grey. Rockies decide not to deal with Appel and take a bat they can dream on leaving Appel for the Twins at #4.

It's a dream though. Rockies have taken a pitcher first in 3/4 last drafts and their system is strong in hitting and weak in pitching. It would be hard to see them not taking Appel or Grey if he slipped to them.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-21-2013, 11:06 AM
Like Badsmerf said, there was an emphasis put on power arms... but also power hitters too.

I would guess that the early season success of Melotakis and Duffey (if it continues) will cause the Twins to employ a similar strategy again this June. I don't have the exact numbers anymore, but the amount of innings pitched collegiately by the draftees last year was considerably less than the innings pitched by the guys drafted in 2012. Like 75% less. Pitchers arms are like running backs legs, you can only get so many miles (or innings) out of them in a lifetime (with some exceptions), the Twins have been burned by overused college guys (another reason Stewart could be a great pick).

Manziel will be a redshirt-sophomore next year (so he could declare for the 2014 NFL Draft), but I agree - especially if he is taken very high - he'll go the baseball route.

kab21, I'm with you. The 2nd tier is about six guys deep. Bonus demands will separate those guys as the draft approaches. It might come down to taking the guy who's scout is willing to bet his job on his guy.

FYI - and obviously the crosscheckers/supervisors have input as well...
Stewart's scout - Greg Runser, the signing scout for both Melotakis and Duffey. (Chargois as well.) (Runser has respectfully declined my overtures.)
Meadows' scout - Jack Powell, the signing scout for both Buxton and Bard.
Manaea's scout - Jeff Pohl

diehardtwinsfan
04-21-2013, 11:13 AM
I could definitely go with Stewart. He's not one that would step in and help the next wave, but he could be up in 4-5 years if all goes well. The thing about Stewart is that it's probably going to take 2M or so to get him to sign (or so I've heard). They could definitely do that in the top half of the draft, but if he slips lower, he may not get drafted at all.

cmb0252
04-21-2013, 11:34 AM
Thanks for all the great inside information like always Jeremy.

I'm really glad to see that the Twins might actually be high on Stewart. I have had Stewart in the top 10 for the whole draft process but after seeing him pitch this week live, currently live in Houston, he jumped to #3 on my draft board. He had a 10/4 K/BB ration, hit 96 a few times with the fastball, and only gave up two hits in 7 innings of work. After Gray/Appel he is the only other guy I see ace potential in. I hope to do a general write up on him on Monday.

Like you, I have Frazier above meadows but it doesn't surprise me that the Twins don't. They love tools. While I was pretty happy with the Buxton pick I would be pretty disappointed with meadows personally.

I'm with you on being uneasy with Manaea kab21. He just hasn't been the same guy since the cape. I have him ranked #8 on my board and in my third tier. As I say this, gun to my head, he is who I would guess the Twins end up taking.

mike wants wins
04-21-2013, 01:10 PM
Great wrteup. I have my doubts you can take college relievers and make them good starters, I hope I am wrong, but there isn't much history of that. I read all the time that pitchers are high risk, and often do not work out. To that i would say that if you draft hitters, you are even less likely to develop pitchers.....

i want pitching. The draft is the best path to it. Given this write up, I would take any of your four pitchers over any hitter.....though if you really think sano can stay at third, why is Bryant a bad idea? A top power hitting first baseman does not grow on trees.

nfisch22
04-21-2013, 01:11 PM
What about Trey Ball? Big left handers don't grow on trees and his future looks to be on the mound as he's struggled a bit at the plate this year.

cmb0252
04-21-2013, 01:57 PM
This draft is considered weak overall because of the lack of overall top talent after the first 5-8 guys, lack of college position players, and high school SS/RHP, not pitching in general. There are a ton of good college pitchers/HS LHPs that will be around in round two and later.

Last year after drafting Buxton they loaded up on arms, they traded for arms in the off season, and got a pretty good one back from injury in Gibson. While the system could use some more arms, can say that about every system, they aren't as barren as they were a year ago.

As I say this the top three players on my board are all arms so I would love to see Appel, Gray (how cool would it be to have Meyers/Gray pitching back to back days?), or Stewart go to the Twins at 4. If they take a bat that's cool too though. Personally I prefer Frazier/Bryant to meadows/Moran.

Thrylos
04-21-2013, 03:46 PM
Jon Denney should probably be in this list. Might have more upside than Zunino and good catchers are hard to pass. Zunino was 3rd overall last season, so I think that Denney would make the top ten. Would be interesting to see if the Twins pick him because that is a position of need in the organization, plus might save some $ at their 1st round slot.

Pitz
04-21-2013, 04:31 PM
Whether or not the college relief pitchers are able to make the transition to starters isn't really a big concern to me. Of course it would be nice if even one of them could, but I think that having a system full of power relievers also has its benefits. Hopefully, it would allow the Twins to maintain a young cost controlled bullpen at the big league level which in turn would prevent them from overspending/trading for volatile bullpen guys. Of course, I could also see if having the opposite effect, where they are in contention but decide they don't want to trust the young guys down the stretch. But I'm going to pretend I didn't type that last sentence like I wish I could pretend they didn't trade Ramos for Crapps. Alas, I've digressed. Back to the draft discussion - I wouldn't mind seeing them continue to target power relief arms after their first couple picks.

johnnydakota
04-21-2013, 05:00 PM
Thanks Jeremy , nice work, very informative

clutterheart
04-21-2013, 05:25 PM
Surprised you are so low on Bryant.

Advanced power bats like his don't often bust out. But I get your point regarding positioned value.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-21-2013, 06:25 PM
There could be a case made for Denney or McGuire. The Twins have had better luck with collegiate catchers recently and don't draft more than one or two catchers. From what I've gathered, the Twins didn't seem overly eager to go see either, so from that, I'm left them off of the list. (Looking through notes, I do have something on Denney: "Good player. Not going in first four picks, definite first rounder." But that was from a few weeks ago.)

Power arms - the Twins want to have a bullpen like the Royals, full of hard-throwing guys.

It's not that I'm necessarily low on Bryant; he's a big-power guy. From what I've heard (and I'm not going to guarantee it plays out this way), is that all of Bryant's value is in his bat. The Twins draft "toolsy" almost to a fault, so drafting a one (no more than two) tool guy at #4 seems far-fetched. (In fact, I got some early-season indication that the right-handed power bat that most impressed the Twins is Fresno State OF Aaron Judge, who also has more defensive skills than Bryant, but less of a overall hit tool.)

Appreciate the comments; good discussion.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-21-2013, 06:27 PM
About Trey Ball... haven't heard much and haven't gotten any indications that he's even on the radar. But, again, things are pretty fluid around this time.

mike wants wins
04-21-2013, 06:55 PM
Whether or not the college relief pitchers are able to make the transition to starters isn't really a big concern to me. Of course it would be nice if even one of them could, but I think that having a system full of power relievers also has its benefits. Hopefully, it would allow the Twins to maintain a young cost controlled bullpen at the big league level which in turn would prevent them from overspending/trading for volatile bullpen guys. Of course, I could also see if having the opposite effect, where they are in contention but decide they don't want to trust the young guys down the stretch. But I'm going to pretend I didn't type that last sentence like I wish I could pretend they didn't trade Ramos for Crapps. Alas, I've digressed. Back to the draft discussion - I wouldn't mind seeing them continue to target power relief arms after their first couple picks.
It matters if you use high draft picks, and pass on guys that give you kore than 60 innings a year.....

nicksaviking
04-21-2013, 07:16 PM
Nice analysis, thanks for all the effort.

I have to say though, the Twins can pay lip-service to the BPA myth all they want, but if they truely have Moran over Bryant, then it's all talk. Even if they feel Bryant will move to 1B, then they would just be weighing a 3B vs a 1B and clearly Bryant is the more talented player.

mlhouse
04-21-2013, 07:21 PM
THe fantasy scenario is for Appel to fall to the Twins. I think the chances of Appel falling are a little greater than the 5% cited above because the top couple of teams just might prefer to pass on the financial demands. I would put the probability more in the range of 25%, but even with that would the Twins be the team to pull the trigger on the financial commitment? I think they would be fools to pass on Appel even with a $5 million trigger. Look at it this way. The probability of Appel being a better pitcher than the 4th-5h veteran starters we have been signing is very significant. Then, compare the cost of that prorated $5 million over 2-4 years and you see that this is the right financial move.

If Appel is not there, then I think the left hander Manaea needs to be the pick. I don't think he projects to be a top of the rotation guy, but he could be a very good left handed 2-3 starter, and if he can get his slider moving again have some upside over that.

I would pass on the Stewart because I think he will have financial leverage and he is just too far away, and the HS outfielders would just saturate the system.

clutterheart
04-21-2013, 08:09 PM
If Appel is not there, then I think the left hander Manaea needs to be the pick. I don't think he projects to be a top of the rotation guy, but he could be a very good left handed 2-3 starter, and if he can get his slider moving again have some upside over that.

I would pass on the Stewart because I think he will have financial leverage and he is just too far away, and the HS outfielders would just saturate the system.

Manaea seems like Adam Johnson to me.
The way the system is set up right now, I almost wouldn't mind the team taking the highest upside HS arm available and hope like hell it works out.

This would be a big risk/reward type of move and is easy to say when its not my job on the line....But...I have not been blown away by anyone but Gray, Appel and Bryant. And I will be surprised if any of those guys are available when the twins pick.

So why not take the highest upside and hope it works?

Pitz
04-21-2013, 09:10 PM
It matters if you use high draft picks, and pass on guys that give you kore than 60 innings a year.....

I'm not exactly sure how to respond other than to say I agree with you. I did say that the relief pitchers would be drafted after their first couple picks. I guess my point was that if the conversion to starting doesn't work out, hopefully they would still have valuable bullpen pieces. With a young and cost controlled bullpen, hopefully that would also allow the Twins to spend more for starting pitching in free agency. I know that their free agent spending is a topic of much contention, however and probably best left for another thread.

As far as the Twins first picks, I hope they are able to get a guy that will be able to fill a front of the rotation spot or at the very least a mid-rotation starter who will give them plenty of innings. While it would be pretty sweet to get Gray or Appel, I think I'd be fine with Stewart or Manaea.
None of the bats excite me too much with the #4 pick, but I'll also admit that I'm not very educated beyond what Jeremy has provided.

kab21
04-21-2013, 09:30 PM
I think the Twins took the 4 college RP'ers last year because they were unimpressed with the HS arms that were available. They needed to add arms to the org and I think they wanted velocity also. While others say that there aren't many college RP'ers that turn into starters the Twins probably felt like the HS arms were similar longshots. And they can always become part of a potential power bullpen which would be really nice to have.

My concern with Manaea at #4 is that he still has inconsistent secondary pitches. A middle of the rotation arm at #4 is fine as downside but Manaea probably turns into a reliever if he doesn't make progress on those secondary pitches. That's not okay at #4.

Badsmerf
04-21-2013, 10:00 PM
I'd be for Stewart or Denny. I want upside, and taking a little risk might be the only way to do it in this draft.

cmb0252
04-21-2013, 10:12 PM
At 4 you don't take floor, you take someone you think can be a star. If you think an arm can be a top of the rotation guy take him. If not? Pass. Hopefully the Twins wont be drafting top 5 much longer but while they are, don't waste it.

Kwak
04-21-2013, 10:31 PM
At 4 you don't take floor, you take someone you think can be a star. If you think an arm can be a top of the rotation guy take him. If not? Pass. Hopefully the Twins wont be drafting top 5 much longer but while they are, don't waste it.
The Twins need to adopt the philosophy of "reaching for stars" as opposed to the the "safe" picks. Stars make a team a winner, the "safe" guys just keep a team from failing enough to realize that there is a problem and not being able to select soon enough to get a high-profile draft choice. As far as jobs on the line? I don't recall there any bloodletting as a result of previous mistakes. It seems to me that they keep the same people year-after-year irrespective of results.

Oxtung
04-21-2013, 10:46 PM
Taking Stewart would be against everything the Twins have always done but I like it. Take someone with true ace potential and hope for the best. For me is moving into that tier with Bryant/Frazier/Meadows and possibly Manaea. I feel uneasy about Manaea for some reason.

Welcome to the dark side kab. Welcome to the last home you'll ever need. Feed your obsession. We want only the best at #4.

kab21
04-21-2013, 10:52 PM
What about Trey Ball? Big left handers don't grow on trees and his future looks to be on the mound as he's struggled a bit at the plate this year.

I think the problem with Trey Ball in the top 10 (definitely at #4) is that there is too much projection needed for him to be an MLB'er. He's 6'6" 175 and sits in the high 80's/low 90's area with his fastball. A guy like Stewart is already in the low to mid 90's and it sounds like his slider is better currently. Ball could end up being a great pitcher but his floor is someone that doesn't make it out of A ball. I don't mind taking risk but Ball is a little too risky for me and I'm not certain what his likely upside is.

IdahoPilgrim
04-22-2013, 01:27 PM
THe fantasy scenario is for Appel to fall to the Twins. I think the chances of Appel falling are a little greater than the 5% cited above because the top couple of teams just might prefer to pass on the financial demands. I would put the probability more in the range of 25%, but even with that would the Twins be the team to pull the trigger on the financial commitment? I think they would be fools to pass on Appel even with a $5 million trigger. Look at it this way. The probability of Appel being a better pitcher than the 4th-5h veteran starters we have been signing is very significant. Then, compare the cost of that prorated $5 million over 2-4 years and you see that this is the right financial move.

Do you think he will sign for $5M? I have my doubts - if he is willing to sign for that, he won't fall to us.

diehardtwinsfan
04-22-2013, 03:45 PM
Appel's problem this year is he has no leverage. I wouldn't be surprised if his team is telling everyone that he wants their slot plus their extra, but asking a team to forfeit their 2014 first round pick is a good way to find yourself unemployed.

cmb0252
04-22-2013, 06:01 PM
I want to expand, literally, on a point Jeremy made about HS pitchers. If we expand it to high school pitcher taken in the top 10 picks instead of top 5 over the past 10 years the is changes drastically.

2012- Max fried (7th)
2011-Bundy (4th) and Archie Bradley (7th)
2010- Tallion (2nd) and Matt Harvey (7th)
2009- Matt Hobgood (5th), Zack Wheeler (6th), and Jacob Turner (9th)
2008- None taken
2007- Jarrod Parker (9th) and Bumgarner (10th)
2006- Clayton Kershaw (7th)
2005- None taken
2004- Mark Rogers (5th) and Homer Bailey (7th)
2003- John Danish (9th)

Goes from 4 guys to 14. Rodgers and Hobgood being the busts that Jeremy was talking about. On a side note, when the Os drafted Hobgood at 5 it was considered a giant reach and he wasn't even on some experts top 50 lists. Turner isn't a bust yet but if he doesn't figure things out soon he might join Hobgood and Rogers.

Outside of those three the rest of the list looks pretty solid. Tallion, Fried, Bundy, and Bradley are all top prospect with ace potential. Harvey and Wheeler have had pretty impressive starts to their young careers. Parker and Bailey took longer then expected but put up impressive WARs last year of 3.9 and 2.5. Kershaw and Bumgarner are sort of good and while John Danks pitched poorly last year he owns a career WAR of 19.6.

drjim
04-22-2013, 07:09 PM
Good analysis (though Harvey was a college pick).

I'm still a little uncomfortable jumping to those type of conclusions on such a small sample. Each draft class is unique.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-22-2013, 07:39 PM
Pretty good success from picks 6-10, I'd say. In fact, I might suggest that, judging by that list, taking a high school pitcher in the Top 10 has a shockingly high success rate.

I would say Stewart isn't quite Archie Bradley, who - I was told - would be the top talent in this draft.

cmb0252
04-22-2013, 08:13 PM
Good analysis (though Harvey was a college pick).

I'm still a little uncomfortable jumping to those type of conclusions on such a small sample. Each draft class is unique.

Crap, Harvey was a college guy....my bad! Still, pretty solid group if pitchers. I'm all for Stewart at 4.

cmb0252
04-22-2013, 09:17 PM
Pretty good success from picks 6-10, I'd say. In fact, I might suggest that, judging by that list, taking a high school pitcher in the Top 10 has a shockingly high success rate.

I would say Stewart isn't quite Archie Bradley, who - I was told - would be the top talent in this draft.

I completely agree Jeremy. I was actually surprised about the success rate. While I agree Bradley is a better overall prospect than Stewart, I think Stewart might have a higher upside. After seeing him pitch live I think if you fix his mechanics he can eventually hit 100. I'm not a professional scout but he is already hitting 96-97 with flawed mechanics.

kab21
04-22-2013, 10:11 PM
Fixing flawed mechanics sounds like changing a gf/bf. Perhaps those mechanics can be smoothed out but I think you largely get what you see.

Typically when I hear about mechanics being fixed it leads to a lower velocity actually. that might sound like the opposite from what you expect but usually improved mechanics usually are targeting improved control and/or better movement. Taking a little velocity off of the fastball can help with both of those. If his physical projection balances out those losses then he's still throwing in the low to mid 90's with a devastating slider. Now if he can develop just an average change then you have a potential ace.

Right now Stewart and Bryant are moving to the top of the 2nd tier (behind Gray/Appel). I have already said why I'm concerned about Manaea and Meadows/Frazier haven't put them into the buxton level of prospect. Denney is kind of a wild card and I haven't dug too deep into Moran but I will over the next couple of weeks.

cmb0252
04-26-2013, 03:25 PM
I don't think this comes as a surprise but the Chicago Sun Times has confirmed the Cubs are taking either Appel or Gray with the number 2 pick.

"Team sources have said for weeks that they expect one of those power pitchers will be the Cubs’ selection — possibly coming down to whichever one isn’t selected by the Houston Astros with the No. 1 pick."

From manager Dale Sveum
‘Obviously, the two big boys, Appel and Gray, if those guys keep the velocity where it is and everything’s going good, I think it’s hard not to take one of them guys,’’ Sveum said.

Article link below:
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/19719803-573/cubs-plan-to-use-no-2-pick-on-mark-appel-or-jonathan-gray.html

This isn't the NFL draft so no reason to create smoke screens.

drivlikejehu
04-26-2013, 04:21 PM
Jim Callis I think has Manaea at #4, and there are other commentators that still like him quite a bit as well. The fact his stuff was sharper in the Cape might mean the Twins could get him back on track.

Stewart is only in the conversation because of how weak this draft is. He doesn't fit the profile of a #4 pick... the risk level is just too high. I'm not a scout, so maybe he will ultimately be the least bad option, but I hope a college player pans out there.

cmb0252
04-26-2013, 05:33 PM
Jim Callis I think has Manaea at #4, and there are other commentators that still like him quite a bit as well. The fact his stuff was sharper in the Cape might mean the Twins could get him back on track.

Stewart is only in the conversation because of how weak this draft is. He doesn't fit the profile of a #4 pick... the risk level is just too high. I'm not a scout, so maybe he will ultimately be the least bad option, but I hope a college player pans out there.

BA and Crawford have Manaea at 6, Law has him at 4, and Mayo (even though his is rather old) at 3. In both Callis' and Law's chats they have said they would be surprised if the Twins didn't take one of the college pitchers at 4.

Crawford had an interesting take on Manaea in his What to Watch:
For most pitchers, a 1.57 ERA with 72 strike outs in 57 innings would be an incredible achievement. Scouts, though, have wanted to see a little more from Manaea. His velocity hasn’t been quite as consistent as it was on the Cape last summer and he hasn’t dominated the way some expected him to against a weak slate of opponents. He’s clearly fallen behind Appel and Gray as the best pitcher on the board, and there’s not much he can show in a start against Tennessee-Martin to change anyone’s mind.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-27-2013, 06:13 AM
Manaea is still dealing with a nagging hip issue. He won't be pitching this weekend.

Its a good thing the Twins have such a fine medical staff, cause his records will need to be gone over with a fine-toothed comb.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-27-2013, 02:03 PM
Star Tribune reported this morning that Red Wing's Ryan Boldt injured his knee on Friday and will be examined on Monday.

It's unknown whether the injury is minor or major. When healthy, Boldt is a first-round pick.

cmb0252
04-27-2013, 02:22 PM
Boldt gets a lot of comparisons to Rockies first rounder David Dahl. Doesn't have any 70s but has a chance to have a lot of 60s and is a true center fielder.

Jeremy Nygaard
04-27-2013, 03:02 PM
Boldt gets a lot of comparisons to Rockies first rounder David Dahl. Doesn't have any 70s but has a chance to have a lot of 60s and is a true center fielder.

He's longer through the zone, and throws right-handed, but I think Boldt can be a Denard Span-type guy. A solid, top-of-the-order hitter. And hopefully no makeup issues (like Dahl).

cmb0252
04-27-2013, 03:31 PM
There is a ton of solid pitching that will be around, college and HS, in the second round but boldt might be too good to pass up if he is there at 43. The Twins love their toolsy outfielders. I know most people here like him because he is from Minnesota but just like Windle/Anderson I could careless where they are from. I just want high upside talent and that definitely fits boldt.

cmb0252
04-30-2013, 11:02 AM
Via Christopher Crawford on boldt:

"You feel for the kid, but now taking him early is a huge risk," one crosschecker said. "We have so little on him as it is because of [Minnesota's] late start to the season, and now there's a chance he might not play again this season. You're basically basing your scouting reports on what you saw in 2012 and over the summer, and so much can change between then and now. I don't care how many 60s [on the 20-80 scouting scale] the kid might have, that's a risk that I don't know if I would take in the first round."