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John Bonnes
03-20-2013, 06:10 PM
The Strib's Jim Souhan sees all the good things about the Twins - their future, their health, Aaron Hicks - but also sees a pitching staff that has plenty of questions. And a team that might be grasping at straws on Day One....


The other day, Ryan was downplaying Dedunoís chances of making the rotation because he throws so many pitches he canít be counted on for many innings. By Monday, manager Ron Gardenhire was salivating over the idea of having a starter like Deduno who can miss bats, regardless of how many innings he can provide.

And so it begins. I want to see this team do well, but this could get ugly in a hurry if the starting pitching falls to pieces early again. And I have to wonder if the guy who is going to catch the heat isn't the guy above Gardy on the org chart. (And he probably should.)

Souhan: Twins hurting in bullpen, and have a shaky rotation | StarTribune.com (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/199085481.html)

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 06:25 PM
It depends on what he's telling ownership.
If he's telling ownership, "we will compete now and rebuild", then yeah he might be in trouble.
If he's telling ownership, "we are punting this year, saving you a ton of money, and will compete in 2015", then I dont see how he could be in trouble.

PseudoSABR
03-20-2013, 07:01 PM
As the season moves on the rotation should only improve with help from the minor leagues, and the improving health of players like Pelfry, Diamond, Gibson, and even Harden and Perez. That Deduno, Hendricks, and De Vries have some seasoning should be an advantage, as well.

While we might look more favorably at the rotation that emerged from ST in 2012, the fact is Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Marquis were ALL busts. I just don't think its at all reasonable that we can expect the same kind of results in 2013.

Yes, the rotation will be a carousel of mediocrity, but I doubt well see the depths of ineptitude of 2012.

Jim H
03-20-2013, 07:04 PM
I am actually a bit optimistic about the starting pitching. Worley will likely be alright. Pelfrey has been up and down, pretty predictable for a guy coming off of TJ surgery. He may struggle but he should eventually settle in. I know what everyone thinks of Correia but he will likely hold a spot in the rotation and if he can't, well Gibson should be ready sometime. Among the rest, I like Hendriks, even if he needs some more time in the minors, I think he will be good sometime. Deduno is interesting, maybe he found some control. DeVries is one of those guys who might be better than his stuff. Nobody is going to get too excited about these guys, but they probably aren't any worse than than the bunch that won 95 games 3 years ago.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 07:09 PM
As the season moves on the rotation should only improve with help from the minor leagues, and the improving health of players like Pelfry, Diamond, Gibson, and even Harden and Perez. That Deduno, Hendricks, and De Vries have some seasoning should be an advantage, as well.

While we might look more favorably at the rotation that emerged from ST in 2012, the fact is Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Marquis were ALL busts. I just don't think its at all reasonable that we can expect the same kind of results in 2013.

Yes, the rotation will be a carousel of mediocrity, but I doubt well see the depths of ineptitude of 2012.

Boy, I disagree.
I'm worried the starting pitching could be just as bad, if not worse this year.
Thinking we are going to get help from the minor leagues is placing a ton of faith in Gibson, because I dont see May or Meyer coming up until Sept. at the earliest.
And while I think Diamond will still be a serviceable starter, I see a fairly significant regression from him this year.

TheLeviathan
03-20-2013, 07:14 PM
One thing to remember about the comparison of this year to last year is that several of the guys we are walking into this thing relying on this year were somewhere between 7 and 12 on the starting pitching depth chart for this team last year. Their ascension up the depth chart has little to do with talent and production and much more to do with having a pulse and being relatively indistinguishable from the rest of the options.

It's great we added a few new names, but it remains to be seen if they are any better considering two guys like Deduno and Devries are getting rotation nods to open the season. Given that the cast of characters isn't that different, it's not hard to imagine the results being not much different as well.

LaBombo
03-20-2013, 07:28 PM
Nobody is going to get too excited about these guys, but they probably aren't any worse than than the bunch that won 95 games 3 years ago.

http://img3.lsistatic.com/members/910389/challenge_accepted.jpg

PseudoSABR
03-20-2013, 07:38 PM
Boy, I disagree.
I'm worried the starting pitching could be just as bad, if not worse this year.
Thinking we are going to get help from the minor leagues is placing a ton of faith in Gibson, because I dont see May or Meyer coming up until Sept. at the earliest.
And while I think Diamond will still be a serviceable starter, I see a fairly significant regression from him this year.Everything went wrong last year. If Pelfrey, Correa, Worley pitch their career norms at 180 innings, that's something we didn't have last year. Diamond likely will digress but it's also possible that just one or two others (say Gibson and Hendricks) emerge as even league average pitchers.

Sure, the pitchers the Twins acquired might fail pitch their career norms, the injured pitchers may fail to return to health, Diamond, Deduno, and De Vries may all regress to irrelevance, and the young pitchers might all fail to develop. But that's an awful lot of pessimism.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 07:43 PM
Everything went wrong last year. If Pelfrey, Correa, Worley pitch their career norms at 180 innings, that's something we didn't have last year. Diamond likely will digress but it's also possible that just one or two others (say Gibson and Hendricks) emerge as even league average pitchers.

Sure, the pitchers the Twins acquired might fail pitch their career norms, the injured pitchers may fail to return to health, Diamond, Deduno, and De Vries may all regress to irrelevance, and the young pitchers might all fail to develop. But that's an awful lot of pessimism.

I dont think its overly pessimistic to think that all 3 of those guys, being NL pitchers, could struggle significantly in the AL. In fact, with few exceptions, its generally the norm.

PseudoSABR
03-20-2013, 07:43 PM
One thing to remember about the comparison of this year to last year is that several of the guys we are walking into this thing relying on this year were somewhere between 7 and 12 on the starting pitching depth chart for this team last year. I just don't think this is really fair. The Twins aren't relying on Deduno and Devries, so much as they are using them as stop gaps for either injured guys like Diamond and Pelfrey or young guys like Hendricks and Gibson.

Unlike last year, as the season progresses the Twins depth should get better; and I think it's pretty good bet to make.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 07:45 PM
I just don't think this is really fair. The Twins aren't relying on Deduno and Devries, so much as they are using them as stop gaps for either injured guys like Diamond and Pelfrey or young guys like Hendricks and Gibson.

Unlike last year, as the season progresses the Twins depth should get better; and I think it's pretty good bet to make.

Every staff is going to have injuries at some point. So the Twins, in a way, actually are counting on one or both of those guys.

TheLeviathan
03-20-2013, 07:48 PM
Sure, the pitchers the Twins acquired might fail pitch their career norms, the injured pitchers may fail to return to health, Diamond, Deduno, and De Vries may all regress to irrelevance, and the young pitchers might all fail to develop. But that's an awful lot of pessimism.

I get what you're saying, but it lacks context. All of the new acquisitions are jumping from the NL (historically not a good thing), one is coming off a major injury, another is coming off a significant injury, and the other's career norm just isn't very good. I'm optimistic about Hendricks and Gibson, but given that we are walking into this season with Devries and Deduno in the rotation already (and that's with Pelfrey pitching) there are plenty of reasons to be very concerned that we are actually better.

I guess, to me it's not about being a pessimist, it's that this team has a very low floor. Not unlike last year.

PseudoSABR
03-20-2013, 07:50 PM
I dont think its overly pessimistic to think that all 3 of those guys, being NL pitchers, could struggle significantly in the AL. In fact, with few exceptions, its generally the norm.I'll give you the standard run deferential between the leagues and score that as an improvement from last year's rotation.

From development to regression to changing leagues, it seems to me you view the negative outcome as the likely one--which might even be the case. However it's just very unlikely that the collection of independent events will all turn out negative.

TheLeviathan
03-20-2013, 07:51 PM
Unlike last year, as the season progresses the Twins depth should get better; and I think it's pretty good bet to make.

Why would it get better?

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:01 PM
I'll give you the standard run deferential between the leagues and score that as an improvement from last year's rotation.

From development to regression to changing leagues, it seems to me you view the negative outcome as the likely one--which might even be the case. However it's just very unlikely that the collection of independent events will all turn out negative.

Its not really that I think every collection of independent events will turn out negative, its just that I dont see nearly enough talent in this group to overcome even just some of them going negative.
If worse case scenario were to hit (meaning all of them turning negative), I think this rotation could be historically bad.
Like someone else said, its not just pitchers coming from the NL, 2 of them are coming off significant surgeries, so they carry even more risk than just the standard NL to AL switch.
I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is anywhere near ready to pitch, I mean what is he throwing right now, mid to high 80's? With his lack of movement, he needs his typical low to mid 90's just to be the serviceable pitcher that he was before the surgery. I hope they dont rush him out there knowing he's not ready, because IMO it could get ugly.

I also think its hard to know what you are going to get from Worley. He was good his rookie year, pretty bad last year. So many variables though: smallish sample size, his first year looks fairly lucky, last year looks fairly unlucky, he was pitching through injury, its just so hard to tell what to expect from him.

I think they are trying to be optimistic about Gibson, but the whispers I am hearing are that internally they are trying not to count on anything from him this year.

To me there are just so many ? marks, and IMO not even the majority of them need to go negative to be pretty bad, because i'm just not seeing much talent there to begin with.

But, this is why they dont play the games on paper, right! Only time will tell.

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 08:08 PM
What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:11 PM
What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

What is your deal man?
Nobody is claiming it has anything to do with putting on a Twins uniform, jeez.
There is a well documented NL to AL regression, do you dispute that?

LaBombo
03-20-2013, 08:14 PM
What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

And the finalists for Most Ironically Named TD Posters are:....

TheLeviathan
03-20-2013, 08:17 PM
What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

Hey, I'm all about Hendricks building. Maybe even Deduno. But your whole post seems to be intentionally missing the point, no?

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 08:17 PM
Its not really that I think every collection of independent events will turn out negative, its just that I dont see nearly enough talent in this group to overcome even just some of them going negative.
If worse case scenario were to hit (meaning all of them turning negative), I think this rotation could be historically bad.
Like someone else said, its not just pitchers coming from the NL, 2 of them are coming off significant surgeries, so they carry even more risk than just the standard NL to AL switch.
I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is anywhere near ready to pitch, I mean what is he throwing right now, mid to high 80's? With his lack of movement, he needs his typical low to mid 90's just to be the serviceable pitcher that he was before the surgery. I hope they dont rush him out there knowing he's not ready, because IMO it could get ugly.

I also think its hard to know what you are going to get from Worley. He was good his rookie year, pretty bad last year. So many variables though: smallish sample size, his first year looks fairly lucky, last year looks fairly unlucky, he was pitching through injury, its just so hard to tell what to expect from him.

I think they are trying to be optimistic about Gibson, but the whispers I am hearing are that internally they are trying not to count on anything from him this year.

To me there are just so many ? marks, and IMO not even the majority of them need to go negative to be pretty bad, because i'm just not seeing much talent there to begin with.

But, this is why they dont play the games on paper, right! Only time will tell.

Take out the games Worley pitched against the Mets and he had the same kind of season he did the year before. That would make him a perfect Twins Ace (can't win against a New York team)

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:24 PM
Take out the games Worley pitched against the Mets and he had the same kind of season he did the year before. That would make him a perfect Twins Ace (can't win against a New York team)

I'm not really sure if this post is serious or joking around?
I'm guessing if you took away the worst couple of outings for any pitcher it would make their numbers look substantially better. In fact, I'm guessing if you took away the worst couple of outings for '11 Worley, then he would again be better than the '12 Worley with the couple of bad outings taken out.
Either way you look it at, I just dont know WHAT to expect from Worley. I think the available data is too small, and filled with too many variables (that I mentioned previously).
And I dont mean that in a negative light. He could just as easily be better, worse or the same. Just tough to get a read on.

mike wants wins
03-20-2013, 08:47 PM
Refuse to pay for good players, get bad players in return. The math is not that hard.

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 08:56 PM
Last season with expectations of the pitching staff being high and the end result it should have taught the local fans one thing. You never know what you are going to get out of youor pitcher unless your pitcher's name is like Price, Verlander, Sabathia, Strasburg, Kershaw, or the other extreme Terry Felton.

TheLeviathan
03-20-2013, 08:59 PM
Last season with expectations of the pitching staff being high and the end result it should have taught the local fans one thing. You never know what you are going to get out of youor pitcher unless your pitcher's name is like Price, Verlander, Sabathia, Strasburg, Kershaw, or the other extreme Terry Felton.

That's a good point. Except I'm not sure too many of us were "high" last year. Unless you had a different kind of "high" in mind? :)

(See everyone in a week for all I know.....)

IdahoPilgrim
03-20-2013, 09:11 PM
I'm going with those who think it unlikely that this year will be as bad or worse than last year. The goal of this staff is not to win games by themselves - the goal is to not get blown out in the first three innings and give the offense a chance to score some runs. We don't need aces so much as middle-of-the-road performances. I think (and I know many disagree with me) that there is as much chance of that happening as there is a meltdown happening.

beckmt
03-20-2013, 09:20 PM
I still think Deduno will start here this year. He seems to have figured a few things out. DeVires should also start here, but probably won't. Henricks should be sent to Rochester and a couple of the 40 man roster sent packing to make room for better pitching. I hope it is not as bad as last year, it could be, but would take more bad luck, and if it happens will not effect the long range plans except to slow the progression of help from the minors until later next year.

ThePuck
03-20-2013, 09:24 PM
Weren't they supposed to name the rotation yesterday?

Willihammer
03-20-2013, 09:42 PM
The other day, Ryan was downplaying Deduno’s chances of making the rotation because he throws so many pitches he can’t be counted on for many innings. Someone in another thread asked, why would GardyAndy put a pitch limit on a 29 y/o journeman making min. wage anyway?

ND-Fan
03-20-2013, 10:06 PM
I worry all the negatives people were pointing out on each of the Twins acquitions is starting to come home to roost. Dave St. Peter said the Twins needed to start season better than last year but it looks like it could be repeat of last year. The reasoning behind this is that Devries and Deduno are in the real mix to be part of starting rotation and Twins management said that needed to overhaul rotation what do we have appearing that 2 to 3 could be back in the rotation for start of the season. Also Diamond been hurt, and so many of the Twins pitchers are recovering from injuries and moving here from national league one wonders how far we will be out of it by end of May. I think ryan job is safe because ownership must have been informed that they were not going to spend any amount of money this year and hope we can become contender by 2016. yes we may improve as year goes along but if were not contending you can bet any of these veterans that are pitching competitively will be traded by trading deadline. We will be left with what nobody wants and waiting for september call up. That might be fun see what team will look like in 2015.

USAFChief
03-20-2013, 11:09 PM
I'm confused by Ryan's belief that Deduno won't put up enough innings because he can't throw strikes. How is that different from starters who won't put up innings because they can't get anyone out? Correia's gonna put up innings? Please.

Highabove
03-20-2013, 11:33 PM
Lets see, Souhan has stated that he likes 90% of the moves that Ryan has made during the off Season. A few days later, Souhan writes about how the Twins pitching staff is a total mess.
I believe Ryan stated last October, Pitching was going to be his number one priority. But again, the Twins make a lot of promises during Season Ticket renewal time.

LaBombo
03-20-2013, 11:34 PM
I'm confused by Ryan's belief that Deduno won't put up enough innings because he can't throw strikes. How is that different from starters who won't put up innings because they can't get anyone out? Correia's gonna put up innings? Please.

He will if you leave him in despite the carnage. It's not like he needs to leave the park early so he can sell plasma to make ends meet.

You are a learned TD poster, so I'm wondering why you do not yet grasp the difference between pitchers who may suck because they don't pitch The Twins' Way, and those pretty much doomed to suck because they do. But no worries. Just read some Nick Blackburm/Rick Anderson tweets about keeping the ball down and you'll totally get it. Totally.

PseudoSABR
03-21-2013, 12:27 AM
Its not really that I think every collection of independent events will turn out negative, its just that I dont see nearly enough talent in this group to overcome even just some of them going negative.
If worse case scenario were to hit (meaning all of them turning negative), I think this rotation could be historically bad.
Like someone else said, its not just pitchers coming from the NL, 2 of them are coming off significant surgeries, so they carry even more risk than just the standard NL to AL switch.
I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is anywhere near ready to pitch, I mean what is he throwing right now, mid to high 80's? With his lack of movement, he needs his typical low to mid 90's just to be the serviceable pitcher that he was before the surgery. I hope they dont rush him out there knowing he's not ready, because IMO it could get ugly.

I also think its hard to know what you are going to get from Worley. He was good his rookie year, pretty bad last year. So many variables though: smallish sample size, his first year looks fairly lucky, last year looks fairly unlucky, he was pitching through injury, its just so hard to tell what to expect from him.

I think they are trying to be optimistic about Gibson, but the whispers I am hearing are that internally they are trying not to count on anything from him this year.

To me there are just so many ? marks, and IMO not even the majority of them need to go negative to be pretty bad, because i'm just not seeing much talent there to begin with.

But, this is why they dont play the games on paper, right! Only time will tell.I don't mean to mock you, but I feel this post is indicative of my point about rationalizing the negative outcome. There's a perfectly reasonable line of thinking that suggests a Twins disaster, but that reason isn't necessarily probable. We can justify our negative (or positive) outlook with any number of pieces of evidence--but the average probable outcome is still the average probable outcome; taking the downside is by definition unreasonable.

That said, I believe that the Twins can get 180 innings of mediocrity from all of Pelfry, Corriea, Diamond, and Worley, which is FAR more than they got last year. Moreover, I think it's probablistically likely that one (or more) of the pitchers with health concerns or one (or more) of the prospects will emerge to eat positive innings this year.

While all of Diamond, Worley, Correia, and Pelfry might digress from there career norms--the thing is--it is still a boon to the rotation given how horrible it was last year. Moreover, I think it's silly to think that all four will digress, and more silly that some other starting pitching won't emerge.

We may scoff at the notion that our pitching depth is significantly better than last year, but it just is. While we might still have the seventh and eighth starting option in play, the Twins know significantly more about such pitchers than they did last year, and that's a boon. The Twins won't be in the position of blindly promoting the able arm in line--they will be in a much better position to use their pitching depth, because they know far more about such pitchers having seen them a year ago.

Again, we are looking at a baseline of mediocrity, but that baseline, that safety net, is held significantly higher than last year. There should be no pitcher starting a game this year that we've never heard of--that says something. Yes, we suck, but really, not as bad as last year, guys; I'm not sure why that is so hard to admit.

I'll also add, that no, the Twins didn't do everything within their payroll power or their roster means to improve the rotation, so we have every right to be bitter--but that bitterness shouldn't make us opaque to improved starting rotation depth, how thread-barren it might seem.

PseudoSABR
03-21-2013, 12:41 AM
Why would it get better?A matter of circumstance mostly. Unhealthy pitchers should get healthier, prospects should develop, the butt-ends of our depth should learn from their experience. Whether the 'shoulds' make due will be the tale of the season. But I'm not seeing any swaying evidence whether our rotation will be mostly Pollyannas or Candides.

Again, don't get me wrong we'll suck. But our starting pitching should improve as the season moves along; given the low bar, I'm not really sure how much that actually means.

Top Gun
03-21-2013, 12:43 AM
I know one thing, I would not want a Twins SP on my team.

jokin
03-21-2013, 03:43 AM
A matter of circumstance mostly. Unhealthy pitchers should get healthier, prospects should develop, the butt-ends of our depth should learn from their experience. Whether the 'shoulds' make due will be the tale of the season. But I'm not seeing any swaying evidence whether our rotation will be mostly Pollyannas or Candides.

Again, don't get me wrong we'll suck. But our starting pitching should improve as the season moves along; given the low bar, I'm not really sure how much that actually means.

Holy Set of Expectations Whiplash!

Can you square the circle(-ular argument) for me, against your previous quote:


I don't mean to mock you, but I feel this post is indicative of my point about rationalizing the negative outcome. There's a perfectly reasonable line of thinking that suggests a Twins disaster, but that reason isn't necessarily probable. We can justify our negative (or positive) outlook with any number of pieces of evidence--but the average probable outcome is still the average probable outcome; taking the downside is by definition unreasonable.




Or this:


Again, we are looking at a baseline of mediocrity, but that baseline, that safety net, is held significantly higher than last year.

1) Please help me out, are you saying that "we'll suck" is indicative of a mockworthy "rationalization" or simply "definitionally unreasonable"?

2) Are we all supposed to rally around the "baseline of mediocrity" and sit more comfortably in our "safety net" hammock because we've added two more fibers to the twine holding it up in the trees?- because if, as you say, we're going to "suck" anyways, the net is going to come crashing down, regardless.

jokin
03-21-2013, 04:01 AM
The Strib's Jim Souhan sees all the good things about the Twins - their future, their health, Aaron Hicks - but also sees a pitching staff that has plenty of questions. And a team that might be grasping at straws on Day One....



And so it begins. I want to see this team do well, but this could get ugly in a hurry if the starting pitching falls to pieces early again. And I have to wonder if the guy who is going to catch the heat isn't the guy above Gardy on the org chart. (And he probably should.)

Souhan: Twins hurting in bullpen, and have a shaky rotation | StarTribune.com (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/199085481.html)

Seems to me the standard that Ryan has to meet has been set on the financial side, not the W-L record, so until the latter significantly impacts the former, the heat Ryan feels from the furnace will probably remain on auto-pilot.

PseudoSABR
03-21-2013, 04:05 AM
You know, it's entirely possible for me to accept that our pitching staff will suck, be mediocre across aboard, and also assert that the same pitching staff will be much better than last year's staff.

Look, we don't have much to root for but varying degrees of suck; but I'm still interested in precision or at least prudent prognosis. Taking the transitions-to-the-AL don't work, the twins don't develop pitchers, injured pitchers never heal stance for each and every case is unreasonable, silly.

jokin
03-21-2013, 04:09 AM
Hey, I'm all about Hendricks building. Maybe even Deduno. But your whole post seems to be intentionally missing the point, no?

There's been an outbreak of that going on lately:


http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/chuckandbeans_5821.jpg (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Webcomic/ChuckAndBeans)

jokin
03-21-2013, 04:13 AM
You know, it's entirely possible for me to accept that our pitching staff will suck, be mediocre across aboard, and also assert that the same pitching staff will be much better than last year's staff.

Look, we don't have much to root for but varying degrees of suck; but I'm still interested in precision or at least prudent prognosis. Taking the transitions-to-the-AL don't work, the twins don't develop pitchers, injured pitchers never heal stance for each and every case is unreasonable, silly.

I will agree with you that the depth situation may improve. Young arms develop and we have more coaching impact from new sources in Cuellar and Steinbach. And I wouldn't mind one bit if they fast-track the next set of prospect arms to the majors, especially if we are all settled on the road to 95-100 losses by the end of May, anyway. On your second point, we agree that they are going to probably suck, moving the SP ERA down from an abominable 5.40 in 2012 to say, just an awful 4.80-5.00 might be marginally "better" and more realistic than to assert the staff will be "much better" without much supporting evidence to assert such a claim.

cmathewson
03-21-2013, 07:36 AM
The main difference between this year and last year is depth. Last year, the whole rotation collapsed and they had nobody with major league starting experience to pick up the slack. And they had no decent prospects available. Luckily, Diamond, DeVries and Deduno exceeded expectations to have decent years. And Hendriks got some much-needed major league experience. Two of those four are depth this year, with Gibson and Meyers waiting for an opportunity. That is significantly better than the situation we were in at this time last year.

Mr. Brooks
03-21-2013, 11:09 AM
I don't mean to mock you, but I feel this post is indicative of my point about rationalizing the negative outcome. There's a perfectly reasonable line of thinking that suggests a Twins disaster, but that reason isn't necessarily probable. We can justify our negative (or positive) outlook with any number of pieces of evidence--but the average probable outcome is still the average probable outcome; taking the downside is by definition unreasonable.

That said, I believe that the Twins can get 180 innings of mediocrity from all of Pelfry, Corriea, Diamond, and Worley, which is FAR more than they got last year. Moreover, I think it's probablistically likely that one (or more) of the pitchers with health concerns or one (or more) of the prospects will emerge to eat positive innings this year.

While all of Diamond, Worley, Correia, and Pelfry might digress from there career norms--the thing is--it is still a boon to the rotation given how horrible it was last year. Moreover, I think it's silly to think that all four will digress, and more silly that some other starting pitching won't emerge.

We may scoff at the notion that our pitching depth is significantly better than last year, but it just is. While we might still have the seventh and eighth starting option in play, the Twins know significantly more about such pitchers than they did last year, and that's a boon. The Twins won't be in the position of blindly promoting the able arm in line--they will be in a much better position to use their pitching depth, because they know far more about such pitchers having seen them a year ago.

Again, we are looking at a baseline of mediocrity, but that baseline, that safety net, is held significantly higher than last year. There should be no pitcher starting a game this year that we've never heard of--that says something. Yes, we suck, but really, not as bad as last year, guys; I'm not sure why that is so hard to admit.

I'll also add, that no, the Twins didn't do everything within their payroll power or their roster means to improve the rotation, so we have every right to be bitter--but that bitterness shouldn't make us opaque to improved starting rotation depth, how thread-barren it might seem.

Its just as unrealistic to think that none of the possible negatives will go wrong, which this post seems to suggest.
And again, which prospects are going to eat innings? If you think that, you are counting way too much on Gibson. May and Meyer are not ready. If they were they would have been in the competition for the 4th and 5th spots.
One of them might come up in Sept, but by then there are not many innings left to eat.

Mr. Brooks
03-21-2013, 11:15 AM
You know, it's entirely possible for me to accept that our pitching staff will suck, be mediocre across aboard, and also assert that the same pitching staff will be much better than last year's staff.

Look, we don't have much to root for but varying degrees of suck; but I'm still interested in precision or at least prudent prognosis. Taking the transitions-to-the-AL don't work, the twins don't develop pitchers, injured pitchers never heal stance for each and every case is unreasonable, silly.

I'm not sure how you got that out of my post. Thats not what I said at all.
I said that even if only SOME of the negatives go wrong (which some are going to, its simple probability), that could be enough to make it just as bad as last year.
I'm not saying they will go negative in every case.

Willihammer
03-21-2013, 11:33 AM
Don't forget all the things that went right last year:

Fien, Burton, Perkins, Burnett, Diamond, Capps, DeVries, Deduno all outperformed their peripherals.

Burton and Fien were healthy for a full season. Perkins' has a history of back and shoulder problems, none of which re-curred last year.

I guess I'm not so quick to look at 2012 as some fluky deviation from the mean. In a lot of ways, we got lucky.

Pius Jefferson
03-21-2013, 12:22 PM
Lets see, Souhan has stated that he likes 90% of the moves that Ryan has made during the off Season. A few days later, Souhan writes about how the Twins pitching staff is a total mess.
I believe Ryan stated last October, Pitching was going to be his number one priority. But again, the Twins make a lot of promises during Season Ticket renewal time.


He saw the pitching in person for the first time and changed his opinion.

Longdistancetwins
03-21-2013, 02:11 PM
Take out the games Worley pitched against the Mets and he had the same kind of season he did the year before. That would make him a perfect Twins Ace (can't win against a New York team)

Hey, that's funny, but we are really not bad against the Mets, are we? I don't know the stats, but I happened to see Johan and Scott Baker make a couple of their earliest starts against the Mets that were beautiful. Out here in New York, I decided that was best for my morale--go to games against the Mets.

diehardtwinsfan
03-21-2013, 02:14 PM
Droping the team ERA from a 5.4 to a 4.8 would save about 1/2 run per game. That would add to the win column...

ThePuck
03-21-2013, 02:26 PM
Droping the team ERA from a 5.4 to a 4.8 would save about 1/2 run per game. That would add to the win column...

Then take into account we lost both two very good defensive OFs and our two table setters on offense (same guys of course). That will likely subtract from the win column.

Imagine what the Twins team ERA would have been without the top notch defense of Span and Revere...

TheLeviathan
03-21-2013, 02:26 PM
A matter of circumstance mostly. Unhealthy pitchers should get healthier, prospects should develop, the butt-ends of our depth should learn from their experience. Whether the 'shoulds' make due will be the tale of the season. But I'm not seeing any swaying evidence whether our rotation will be mostly Pollyannas or Candides.

Again, don't get me wrong we'll suck. But our starting pitching should improve as the season moves along; given the low bar, I'm not really sure how much that actually means.

True but isn't there some high injury risks on our staff in Pelfrey and Gibson? Or at least injury aggravation concerns? My issue I that most of your hope is based on the odds of being that awful again more than on the actual talent. But in my eyes last year was far from a doomsday scenario. In many ways we could have been much worse in the ways Willihammer detailed. Last year had a very low floor and I see the same problem now. It wouldn't shock me to see similar results without the aid of a catastrophe.

Rosterman
03-21-2013, 03:24 PM
Going into 2012, I wouldn't have felt that a starting staff of Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Marquis would only give us 13 wins at the most. And they didn't. They gave us 11! You look at the lines of non-returning starters and it was a disaster: Baker injured, Marquis 2-4 8.47, Blackburn 4-9 7.30, Pavano 2-5, 6.00, Liriano 3-10 5.31. Throw in starts by Duensing 2-8 6.92 and Swarzak 0-5 8.10...don't even consider the latter two starters anymore, please. And then we have Vasquez at 0-2 5.58 who iss still in the system, and Liam Hendriks 1-8 5.59. Pretty darn dismal.

But look at the 2013 guys. Pelfrey is coming off Tommy John and only made 3 starts in 2012. But before that he was 7-13 4.74. Not great, but okay. Kevin Correia was 12-11 4.20, Worley was 6-9 4.20. If we get a complete season from ALL three of these guys with similar numbers over 30+ starts, I would be happy for 2013. Scott Diamond was...interesting. For a tough offensive team, we went 12-9 3.54, But we also had nice showings from DeVries 4-4 4.11 and Deduno 6-5 4.44. None were the disaster of the other 7 the Twins thru on the mound last season. And Walters MAY have the stuff. Remember, he did pitch well before his injuory and ended the season 2-5 5.69.

I would fell comfortbale with more sure table setters...but Baker, Pavano, Blackburn (yes), Liriano and Marquis were all proven commodities who went south, so to speak. I didn't expect that. With the current crop of place holders, can they be any better, or any worse....that is the question.

mcrow
03-21-2013, 04:43 PM
Hopefully what we see in the regular season from our starters isn't what we're seeing now or we might set a record for losses this year. Crossing fingers that they are "just working on some things" and we don't have a rotation with a 7 ERA.