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Parker Hageman
03-20-2013, 01:07 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1468-Samuel-Deduno-keeps-throwing-curves

jokin
03-20-2013, 02:00 AM
Great article, possibly one of your best, Parker. But then, some of the best writing in the world happens after Midnight.

Good analogy in your closing sentence. The highwire is always the best event at the circus, and since the present Twins pitching rotation qualifies for the side show, if not the freak parade, Deduno is bound to give the ringmasters, Ryan and Gardy, fits, if they are forced to fete him as their #1 Attraction.

h2oface
03-20-2013, 02:40 AM
Sammy? You too, Parker? Not Dedy? (I'll give you a typo on Pagan - Peggy? Too familiar for not being a Twins' player?) Interesting how well Deduno has done in the WBC without Anderson (Andy?) or Gardenhire (Gardy?) in his ear. Very interesting. If Samuel Deduno hasn't won a starting role in this mediocre rotation, something is drastically wrong. Bring on the tightrope act, the hook, the electric stuff, and the scary fastball.

jimbo92107
03-20-2013, 06:47 AM
That's why I like watching Sam Deduno and Cole DeVries. Both guys juggle chainsaws while riding a unicycle on the high wire. Sure, sometimes the result is untidy, but as Russell Crowe said in Gladiator, "Are you not entertained?"

Oldgoat_MN
03-20-2013, 07:27 AM
If opponents are unable to square up pitches and are constantly off-balance with curveballs in fastball counts, it is hard to drive home those hitters he walked.

Love that line.
I have been reluctant to insist he be given a real chance at a place in the rotation because of the ridicule one gets when one says things like that, but it sure looks like he is earning a shot.

Yoshii
03-20-2013, 07:36 AM
Please give him a chance to join the rotation out of spring training! Its not like we will be missing anyone right?

Jim Crikket
03-20-2013, 08:29 AM
Good stuff, Parker. Here's what immediately came to my mind as I read this: Were the Twins (and in particular, their catchers and whoever else flashes signals in to those catchers concerning pitch selection) paying attention? If Deduno's most effective, and perhaps most controllable, pitch with a 3-2 count is his curveball, will the Twins consistently be as willing to call for the curve in those high-leverage counts as Deduno's Dominican battery mates were? If not... if they stick to convention and call for the fastball, which in his case tends to move unpredictably... I don't think we should be surprised if we see less favorable results.

Hoosier_Twinsfan
03-20-2013, 08:49 AM
For the Twins this year, Deduno is a pitcher they need in the rotation. A pitcher with the combination of confidence and no fear is something the Twins would benefit from. The organization has nothing to lose this year, but maybe 90 games again?

I consider myself one of the most optimistic Twins fans, anything within 10 games of .500 would be considered a positive this season. It just so happens Deduno could help the club win some more games....give this kid a chance!

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-20-2013, 08:53 AM
The one thing I would add is that even though his curve has always been solid, he's got to get his fastball under control, otherwise at best he is a AAAA type or a bullpen arm.

Seth Stohs
03-20-2013, 09:09 AM
I (Parker) would have to look, but it appears to me that the Twins catchers were willing to let him throw a lot of curveballs. I wouldn't trust Mauer to call 3-2 curveballs, but I'm sure Butera would and probably Doumit too. The Twins gave him an opportunity last year and he took advantage of that. They didn't keep him on the 40 man roster but thought enough of him to want to keep him around. I'd say that the Twins should get a ton of credit for helping Deduno get to this point after spending so much time not being good.

That said, I'm also not willing to say 13 innings is enough of a sample to show much. I figure he'll get to Ft. Myers in the next 24 hours or so. He should be back on the mound on Sunday (though I think Walters is starting that day?) and maybe get one more appearance before opening day?

I truly enjoy watching Deduno pitch. I just wonder if the 40 man roster issue will bite him to start the season.

fairweather
03-20-2013, 09:41 AM
The thing that separates Deduno and DeVries is that they both have an above average curve. Both of them have a legit out pitch in their curve. Hendriks just like Blackburn and Slowey before him has NO OUT PITCH and will always give up more than a hit per inning at the big league level even if he has totally dominated the minor leagues. Same for the prized additions of Pelfrey and Correia. Yuck.

fairweather
03-20-2013, 09:58 AM
"I just wonder if the 40 man roster issue will bite him to start the season."--What's going to be biting Deduno through the first 2 months of the season is the 15 million the Twins have committed to a couple of stiffs. After those 2 get set packing back to the senior circuit, where their marginal skills play better, Deduno will get his chance......AGAIN. I'm predicting that once he get's that chance no matter how good his results it still won't be good enough to make the collective MLB brain trust to think he's anything more than a career minor league player. It's so ingrained in these coaches that a pitcher MUST be able to locate his fastball that they may never see past that. That is my opinion of the "enigma" that is Deduno. Personally it's hard for me to look past the erratic fastball but if my other choices were Pelfrey, Correia, and Hendriks I'd look real hard.

spycake
03-20-2013, 10:06 AM
Roenicke and Wood both look pretty vulnerable to me on the 40-man, although the Twins may not be willing to cut them loose before the season. Pressly could still go back to Boston, I suppose, although that doesn't look too likely anymore.

Roenicke looks like another Jeff Gray type to me -- it doesn't look like he will be any kind of asset over the other guys we will have stashed in AAA. I would rather roll the dice on continuing Deduno's WBC showing right now.

Dave T
03-20-2013, 11:00 AM
The Twins need starters. Plus, Deduno is just so f*#king fun to watch when he's on. 3-2 pitch, OK here it comes right down the middle.... not!!!

Physics Guy
03-20-2013, 11:15 AM
Have you seen Roenicke pitch or are you just going by his spring training stats? He threw 88 innings in Colorado last year with a 3.25 ERA. Statistically speaking, Roenicke is not Jeff Gray. I haven't actually seen him pitch yet, so maybe last year was a fluke. His K rate was down last year, but at least he had a history of higher numbers.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
03-20-2013, 12:19 PM
Even though Deduno is 29, there is still some hope he can become a good, reliable pitcher. He's certainly improved with the Twins. Late turnarounds are rare, but not unheard of. Chris Carpenter and more recently R.A. Dickey both significantly improved at age 29 and age 35 respectively.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-20-2013, 12:34 PM
Even though Deduno is 29, there is still some hope he can become a good, reliable pitcher. He's certainly improved with the Twins. Late turnarounds are rare, but not unheard of. Chris Carpenter and more recently R.A. Dickey both significantly improved at age 29 and age 35 respectively.

I get what you are saying, but RA Dickey should not be used as a reference at any point, unless DeDuno somehow becomes a knuckleballer.

Seth Stohs
03-20-2013, 01:07 PM
I'm predicting that once he get's that chance no matter how good his results it still won't be good enough to make the collective MLB brain trust to think he's anything more than a career minor league player. It's so ingrained in these coaches that a pitcher MUST be able to locate his fastball that they may never see past that. That is my opinion of the "enigma" that is Deduno.

To be fair, the Twins brass made him available to every other club during the offseason and not one claimed him, so Deduno is not just fighting the Twins' notions but all of the MLB teams.

h2oface
03-20-2013, 01:21 PM
To be fair, the Twins brass made him available to every other club during the offseason and not one claimed him, so Deduno is not just fighting the Twins' notions but all of the MLB teams.

..... and to be a different fair..... what to you think would happen NOW if the Twins made him available to every other club? ......... things have changed since then. Good thing they are not removing him from the 40 man roster now.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 01:39 PM
I doubt teams are suddenly going to be knocking down his door, when the only difference between then and now is a couple handfuls of innings in exhibition games. I would tend to believe that MLB talent evaluaters are smarter than that.

Again, IMO, give him his shot, he's earned THAT MUCH, but I think some people are getting way too excited over a tiny sample size of innings in completely meaningless games. (Ok, I get that the WBC may not be meaningless to everyone involved, but they are not MLB games.)

Halsey Hall
03-20-2013, 02:03 PM
It might be a tiny sample size this year, but I really enjoyed watching him pitch last year. And I tuned out so many games early last season after a few innings because it was a waste to watch. I wouldn't mind seeing him make the roster.

h2oface
03-20-2013, 03:38 PM
Sample size, schmample size. Some just love to hang on to the catch phrases of the day. The change has to start somewhere. 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 03:47 PM
Sample size, schmample size. Some just love to hang on to the catch phrases of the day. The change has to start somewhere. 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

I guess that means Drew Butera has finally turned the corner.
He's hitting .333 this spring.
We could surprise some people this year, having two good defensive catchers who can both hit well over .300.

TheLeviathan
03-20-2013, 03:53 PM
Anyone but Duensing is my take. So he fits the bill insofar as that. He was entertaining to watch, though I could do without the endless chatter from Dick and Bert about how his fastball is something akin to a wild stallion yearning to be controlled.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-20-2013, 04:21 PM
I guess that means Drew Butera has finally turned the corner.
He's hitting .333 this spring.
We could surprise some people this year, having two good defensive catchers who can both hit well over .300.

He also hit a home run in the WBC, average that out to a full season and you are looking at 20+ HR easy!

Don't Feed the Greed Guy
03-20-2013, 04:41 PM
Sample size...

Deduno 0.69 ERA (13 innings, WBC)
Devries 0.90
Hendricks 6.00
Worley 6.00
Correia 6.46
Pelfrey 7.45
Gibson 9.00

Pitch-to-Contact vs. Effectively Wild? Give me Wild Thing!!

biscuit
03-20-2013, 04:52 PM
While the rotation suspects were flailing in Florida, Sam Deduno was pitching for real, in games that were meaningful for him and his teammates, against Major League ballplayers. Yes, he struggled with control, but we knew that about him. And yes, the fastball looked troublesome, but we knew that also. But how are the likes of Correia, Worley, Pelfry, etc. better than he at the moment? Holy crap! Give the team a chance. Throw him in there. I recall that he pitched a pretty good game at Texas last summer. Even if he can only go 5 innings, those five might be better than 5 of Correia.

birdwatcher
03-20-2013, 05:30 PM
As I clicked on the article, I said to myself, "I wonder how long it will take to find a comment declaring that Sammy is doing well because he escaped the harmful effects of Andy and Gardy."

Bingo. Second comment.

spideyo
03-20-2013, 06:25 PM
Does he have any minor league options left? That probably might make a big difference. If he is out of options, they might opt to have him start in AAA, since he won't have to be exposed to waivers until he gets put on the 40.

If he does have options left, I think it'd be much more likely that they find a way to get him on the 40 so he can at least start the season with the Twins. We won't have diamond for a couple weeks of the season at least, let the other two D's have a couple starts, see how things go

Kwak
03-20-2013, 06:27 PM
Deduno's biggest hurdle is: Ryan. Placing Deduno in the rotation is spitting in Ryan's face. The premise for starting pitchers in The Twins Way is 6 innings in 100 pitches with 3 earned runs or less, and taking the ball every 5th game--"manage by pitch count". Deduno is known to "use too many pitches" in order to keep runs off of the scoreboard, thus he would either get pulled before 6 complete or would force Gardenhire to ignore pitch count, leave him in there, and only remove him for obvious fatigue or yielding too many runs (like they used to do in yesteryears). If Deduno is permitted to "break the rules" then perhaps others should also be afforded that concession. Were that "change" to be applied to most of the rotation--then the premise of "manage by pitchcount" is demonstrated to be bogus. One could then reasonably conclude that the Twins were operating under a flawed philosophy for many years.


I just don't see that happening by the present administration.

jokin
03-20-2013, 06:33 PM
As I clicked on the article, I said to myself, "I wonder how long it will take to find a comment declaring that Sammy is doing well because he escaped the harmful effects of Andy and Gardy."

Bingo. Second comment.

Great detective work, Sherlock. Of course, the fact that I said nothing of the sort doesn't stop Your Stalking-ness get from getting the point of my post entirely wrong.

Before you find the need to break out the magnifying glass again, let me re-clarify my statement for you. I said nothing whatsover about Deduno "escaping the effects of Gardy and Ryan", what I did say was that the offseason emergence of Deduno has created a quandry for the braintrust in how, and in what role, if any, to bring Deduno back onto the American League roster. I hope that helps...

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 06:34 PM
Does he have any minor league options left? That probably might make a big difference. If he is out of options, they might opt to have him start in AAA, since he won't have to be exposed to waivers until he gets put on the 40.

If he does have options left, I think it'd be much more likely that they find a way to get him on the 40 so he can at least start the season with the Twins. We won't have diamond for a couple weeks of the season at least, let the other two D's have a couple starts, see how things go

I believe he is out of options.
It looks like he spent time at both the MLB and MiLB in '10, '11, and '12, which I would assume to mean his option years have all been used.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 06:36 PM
Great detective work, Sherlock. Of course, the fact that I said nothing of the sort doesn't stop Your Stalking-ness get from getting the point of my post entirely wrong.

Before you find the need to break out the magnifying glass again, let me re-clarify my statement for you. I said nothing about Deduno "escaping the effects of Gardy and Ryan", what I did say was that the offseason emergence of Deduno has created a quandry for the braintrust in how, and in what role to, if any, to bring Deduno back onto the American League roster. I hope that helps...

I dont think he was talking about you.
I'm pretty sure he was referring to the 2nd comment in this thread following the article (yours was the first), which he states in his post.

jokin
03-20-2013, 06:49 PM
I dont think he was talking about you.
I'm pretty sure he was referring to the 2nd comment in this thread following the article (yours was the first), which he states in his post.

Mebbe, but since my post was labeled as "#2", and given the birdwatcher's recent proclivity for seeking bigger game, it leads me to believe that it was me who he had in his sights, but perhaps you are right... I'm sure BW will soon be back for further Twins-party-line enlightenment.

LimestoneBaggy
03-21-2013, 09:40 AM
Small sample size? WBC-like exhibition competition? Other detractions?

All probably valid comments, but people are excited because they want to hold on to something good this offseason for pitching. And as to Jim C's comments, I hope Joe would know to call the old number 2, he rolled over one :).

spycake
03-21-2013, 10:40 AM
Have you seen Roenicke pitch or are you just going by his spring training stats? He threw 88 innings in Colorado last year with a 3.25 ERA. Statistically speaking, Roenicke is not Jeff Gray. I haven't actually seen him pitch yet, so maybe last year was a fluke. His K rate was down last year, but at least he had a history of higher numbers.

Reliever ERA isn't terribly useful. By that measure, Alex Burnett really turned a corner last year -- but his K rate dropped dangerously low, and his walk rate only dropped slightly.

I admit Roenicke does not look as useless as Jeff Gray, that was a slight exaggeration on my part, but he's 30 years old (like Gray was last year) and his K rate has been dropping steadily the past few seasons: from 9 K/9 when he hit the majors in 2009, dropping by about one each year, to 5.5 K/9 last year. All the while his walk rate has remained fairly high. As such, he's been waived by his teams each of the past two years. I haven't seen him pitch, but his spring training stats this year seem in line with these trends.

His upside now is almost certainly something like Burnett last year (decent ERA with middling peripherals out of the pen), rather than Burton or Fien. Not only is that of little value to the Twins in 2013, it isn't likely to provide even marginal value beyond that (either in 2014+ performance or trade).

If Deduno continues his hot hand in spring training, I'd much rather see him open with the big club, if just for entertainment value. I doubt the Twins would miss Roenicke.

cmathewson
03-21-2013, 11:57 AM
One thing I've been wondering about: How does Pitch F/X determine whether it's the curve or the change? I know Jim Kaat was confused, because they both have good downward movement and come in the low 80s. He was only able to say for sure after they did a freeze frame on the grip, showing the change-up grip. The change moves slightly into righties and the curve moves slightly away from righties. Otherwise, movement and speed are comparable. I'm thinking if he's fooling Jim Kaat, he's probably fooling Pitch FX as well.

Parker Hageman
03-21-2013, 12:24 PM
How does Pitch F/X determine whether it's the curve or the change? I know Jim Kaat was confused, because they both have good downward movement and come in the low 80s.

Pitch FX has the ability to catalogue pitches based on spin and movement. While thrown at similar speeds, curves have more horizontal run than a change (which typically run the opposite direction).

If you look at Deduno's game charts, you can see the distinct difference in the break of the curve (purple triangles) versus his change (red):

3559
Now, there's definitely going to be some miscategorization, as you can see, there is some blending of his "cutter" (which is likely just his fastball since he has only one grip) and some blending of his change with his fastball.

In terms of Kaat not recognizing his pitches, even the most advanced baseball people will have troubles deciphering pitches from time to time, especially with guys they are not following constantly.

ThePuck
03-21-2013, 02:21 PM
As I clicked on the article, I said to myself, "I wonder how long it will take to find a comment declaring that Sammy is doing well because he escaped the harmful effects of Andy and Gardy."

Bingo. Second comment.

Funny, cause once I saw that post I wondered how long it would take for you to complain about it....

Halsey Hall
03-21-2013, 03:03 PM
With TK hitting groundballs to about a dozen pitchers this morning in the usual drills, Deduno created the biggest stir. He fielded, threw to 2nd, on to 1st, double play. He let out a yell and jumped with his arms out, just like the photo in the WBC. The players and all the fans got a huge laugh out of that! TK hit 2 more grounders and stopped. He said something like; Ok, still laughing, good one Sammy. You disrupted my rythum. It was funny!

bl4ckduck
03-21-2013, 03:19 PM
Great article, possibly one of your best, Parker. But then, some of the best writing in the world happens after Midnight.

Good analogy in your closing sentence. The highwire is always the best event at the circus, and since the present Twins pitching rotation qualifies for the side show, if not the freak parade, Deduno is bound to give the ringmasters, Ryan and Gardy, fits, if they are forced to fete him as their #1 Attraction.

I made an account just to say this was a great read and really helpful to put the Deduno hype in perspective.

h2oface
03-21-2013, 06:14 PM
Great detective work, Sherlock. Of course, the fact that I said nothing of the sort doesn't stop Your Stalking-ness get from getting the point of my post entirely wrong.

Before you find the need to break out the magnifying glass again, let me re-clarify my statement for you. I said nothing whatsover about Deduno "escaping the effects of Gardy and Ryan", what I did say was that the offseason emergence of Deduno has created a quandry for the braintrust in how, and in what role, if any, to bring Deduno back onto the American League roster. I hope that helps...

Pretty sure he was doggin' me this time. I don't take things personally, even if someone tries to make it that way. A comment is a comment, and it stands on its own, regardless whether it gets picked apart and tried to be made something it wasn't. When accessing articles through the forum....... the likes and share button appear, and the actual poster is #1 it seems. In that way, your first comment actually has a #2 attached to it. When accessing the article from the front page, none of that is there. It is inconsistent that way.

h2oface
03-21-2013, 06:17 PM
I guess that means Drew Butera has finally turned the corner.
He's hitting .333 this spring.
We could surprise some people this year, having two good defensive catchers who can both hit well over .300.

Yeah........ well, if you think that is even remotely in the same discussion as this one, more power to you. Your new snark should fit right in here....... with some.

cmathewson
03-21-2013, 07:17 PM
If you think the WBC games are mere exhibitions, you're not paying attention. Teams are full of all-star major leaguers. It was much higher and more intense competition than any spring training game.

Mr. Brooks
03-21-2013, 07:45 PM
Yeah........ well, if you think that is even remotely in the same discussion as this one, more power to you. Your new snark should fit right in here....... with some.

Is sample size meaningless or not? You can't just apply it to players you like or don't like. It either matters or it doesnt.
Deduno is a 29 year old with a track record, Butera is a 29 year old with a track record. Why does your statement, "improvement starts somewhere" apply to one but not the other?
Could it just be that you like one player and dont like the other one?

glunn
03-21-2013, 07:52 PM
I am issuing a moderator caution on this thread. Let's try to be a bit more respectful here.

jorgenswest
03-21-2013, 08:00 PM
Is sample size meaningless or not? You can't just apply it to players you like or don't like. It either matters or it doesnt.
Deduno is a 29 year old with a track record, Butera is a 29 year old with a track record. Why does your statement, "improvement starts somewhere" apply to one but not the other?
Could it just be that you like one player and dont like the other one?

Sample size and reliability of statistics relates to the data. The sample is the data without the context of watching the performance.

Hopefully the Twins employ coaches and scouts that can learn and assess a great deal from watching players practice and perform in a handful of games.

It can not be the data that informs the Twins whether a player has improved. Whether or not Deduno or Butera have improved rests in the assessment if the Twins management observing the approach and looking for specific areas of growth. Improvement can not be measured by data. Spring data should never be cited in the support of an improvement shown by a player. The sample is to small.

gil4
03-23-2013, 10:34 AM
Is sample size meaningless or not? You can't just apply it to players you like or don't like. It either matters or it doesnt.
Deduno is a 29 year old with a track record, Butera is a 29 year old with a track record. Why does your statement, "improvement starts somewhere" apply to one but not the other?
Could it just be that you like one player and dont like the other one?

Pitchers are more likely to take a big leap forward that isn't predicted by the numbers. A new grip on a pitch, learning to avoid throwing a certain pitch, controlling the stuff that's there, or finally feeling healthy after dealing with injuries can all show up as unexpected leaps forward.

Kwak
03-23-2013, 01:10 PM
Batters can change grips too--AJ attributed his HR increase to a change in his grip and in his swing. Deduno may "improve" by a relaxation of the rigidity of Twins philosophy of "manage by pitchcount" and its concommittant bashing of pitchers who "walk too many" or "throw too many pitches", and simply focus on runs allowed.