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View Full Version : Ronny Cedeno: A Good Fit?



YourHouseIsMyHouse
03-19-2013, 05:09 PM
Cedeno was released by the Cardinals today, but had a pretty good ST overall with St. Louis hitting for a .790 OPS in 16 games. He would be likely be available for 1 million for 1 year. Cardinals release Ronny Cedeno | HardballTalk (http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/19/cardinals-release-ronny-cedeno/)

Cedeno could work as our starting shortstop because he's an upgrade over Florimon and he's still 30 years old. He's basically a cheap, replacement level player. Maybe it is a step sideways because he's probably not better than Carroll as an infield bench player and is not significantly better than Florimon, but personally I'd feel much more comfortable giving him at bats than Pedro. Plus, they could release him at any time just like St. Louis did.

Thrylos
03-19-2013, 05:37 PM
Adding another mediocre bad to the 3-4 mediocre bats the Twins' have at middle infield, when this bat has a worse glove than at least 2 of the existing ones (Florimon, Escobar) and is older and costs twice as much, does not make much sense...

ashburyjohn
03-19-2013, 07:11 PM
Adding another mediocre bad

Amusing Freudian typo, my brother.


to the 3-4 mediocre bats the Twins' have at middle infield, when this bat has a worse glove than at least 2 of the existing ones (Florimon, Escobar) and is older and costs twice as much, does not make much sense...

At some point it comes down to room on the 40-man, and not even just the money. Which mediocrity do you cut from the 40-man to add another mediocrity in his place? If it's pretty close to a wash, why bother? You can't just add up 0.5 WAR from 90 players and get where you need to be.

LaBombo
03-19-2013, 07:33 PM
...Cedeno could work as our starting shortstop because he's an upgrade over Florimon and he's still 30 years old. He's basically a cheap, replacement level player. Maybe it is a step sideways because he's probably not better than Carroll as an infield bench player and is not significantly better than Florimon, but personally I'd feel much more comfortable giving him at bats than Pedro.

Not a bad idea, but it looks like the Twins are gradually more resigned to the rebuilding process they are denying is underway. PR spin to the contrary, the Twins know they'll suck and would rather see what they have in Florscobar. That's probably for the best.

That being said, Cedeno is the sort of player they should have targeted instead of Carroll going into a lost 2012. Jamey is a moderately better player, but cost a bunch more, is much older, and required a two year deal that will turn into three when, not if, he goes over 400 PA's this season.

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 07:36 PM
Not a bad idea, but it looks like the Twins are gradually more resigned to the rebuilding process they are denying is underway. PR spin to the contrary, the Twins know they'll suck and would rather see what they have in Florscobar. That's probably for the best.

That being said, Cedeno is the sort of player they should have targeted instead of Carroll going into a lost 2012. Jamey is a moderately better player, but cost a bunch more, is much older, and required a two year deal that will turn into three when, not if, he goes over 400 PA's this season.

they are not going to let Carroll go over 400 PA's this year, I can almost guarantee that.

stringer bell
03-19-2013, 07:42 PM
Agree again with Mr. Brooks. Carroll, if he stays all year with the Twins, will probably get 390-395 PAs.

John Bonnes
03-19-2013, 07:52 PM
Well, I'd be on board. By June, this team is going to be looking to replace some guys in the middle infield. They are going to want some options.

Florimon might very well be hitting .180 by midyear. At that point, he's going to be sent down, not as a punishment but as an act of mercy. It would be nice not to have Escobar, who is essentially the same player, as a replacement.

Physics Guy
03-19-2013, 08:42 PM
I also would be on board with the move as it would allow Escobar to play full-time in AAA. I am on record back in January as saying I wish they had signed him. I don't necessarily agree with John that Florimon is a lost cause, but I would like to have a proven option in case he doesn't pan out. I am still on board with giving Florimon the job. Cedeno is 30 and should be able to accept a bench role.

jorgenswest
03-19-2013, 08:54 PM
Reasons why the Cardinals may have released him in spite of losing their starting shortstop.

-After 2500 MLB PA his career OPS is .647. How does this not get mentioned in the post?

-He is a poor fielding shortstop according to both scouting report and defensive metrics.

-At 30, he has no upside.

Should we throw all of that out because of data from 16 ST games? The Cardinals are regarded as a smart organization with a need at SS. I hope the Twins are as smart.

They need to give this job to the guy with the best glove and let the bat grow. If they have two plus defenders that increases the hope that one will grow his bat over time.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
03-19-2013, 09:14 PM
Reasons why the Cardinals may have released him in spite of losing their starting shortstop.

-After 2500 MLB PA his career OPS is .647. How does this not get mentioned in the post?

-He is a poor fielding shortstop according to both scouting report and defensive metrics.

-At 30, he has no upside.

Should we throw all of that out because of data from 16 ST games? The Cardinals are regarded as a smart organization with a need at SS. I hope the Twins are as smart.

They need to give this job to the guy with the best glove and let the bat grow. If they have two plus defenders that increases the hope that one will grow his bat over time.

The last three years it is .670 which is an OPS+ of 85 for a SS. It's not fantastic, but it's a big difference from the .647 you're trying to use. Florimon will be lucky to get above .600 by the look of things. Cedeno is not a great defender, but he's about replacement level in the field and has been better at second base obviously (where we have another ?). Your 3rd dash is also completely moot because Florimon and Dozier don't have any real upside either.

jorgenswest
03-19-2013, 09:38 PM
Escobar is young enough and has the defensive ability to grow into a starter. There have been many shortstops that enter the majors with their glove and become adequate at the plate.

Cedeno is a poor defender. There is no way his mediocre bat makes up for his defense. You are right about the .670. His bat has grown since his mid 20s. The bats of the Twin middle infielders can improve also with major league playing time.

Ultima Ratio
03-19-2013, 10:42 PM
No, no and no.

jokin
03-19-2013, 11:06 PM
Agree again with Mr. Brooks. Carroll, if he stays all year with the Twins, will probably get 390-395 PAs.

Over Gardy's dead body...

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 11:10 PM
Over Gardy's dead body...

I think TR will make it clear to Gardy that Carroll is not to go over 400 PA's unless we are somehow in the playoff hunt late in the season.
And, I think he will make it clear to him that he is not asking, he is telling, and I think he would fire him if Gardy ignores that demand.
I would have never thought that TR would fire Gardy, but there has been some very noticeable tension between the two the last few months.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-19-2013, 11:16 PM
Cedeno is a bad player...no.

Also I don't get all the Caroll hate: yes he isn't an all-star but he is a perfectly acceptable staring SS or 2B for a good number of teams. Yeah he is old, but keep in mind he still had the 3rd highest OBP of .343 on the team last year and played a pretty solid defense as well, the idea that his option next year is some "team killer" is preposterous as well, if he gets 401 PA he is only owed 2 million dollars, even if by some miracle he is only the third best MI option for us at that point he still makes a decent UTIL player and a decent clubhouse guy.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-19-2013, 11:18 PM
I think TR will make it clear to Gardy that Carroll is not to go over 400 PA's unless we are somehow in the playoff hunt late in the season.
And, I think he will make it clear to him that he is not asking, he is telling, and I think he would fire him if Gardy ignores that demand.
I would have never thought that TR would fire Gardy, but there has been some very noticeable tension between the two the last few months.
If Carroll remains to be one of the best two options for 2B/SS throughout the year (spoiler alert: there is a really good chance!) you gotta give him the at-bats. Again as mentioned before it's only 2 million dollars ($3 million less than we owe EACH to Correia and Blackburn this year!) If not I imagine the agent could possibly file a grievance with the players union? Hell, if he is giving us a .343 OBP out of the 9 hole, keep him playing every day!

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 11:21 PM
Cedeno is a bad player...no.

Also I don't get all the Caroll hate: yes he isn't an all-star but he is a perfectly acceptable staring SS or 2B for a good number of teams. Yeah he is old, but keep in mind he still had the 3rd highest OBP of .343 on the team last year and played a pretty solid defense as well, the idea that his option next year is some "team killer" is preposterous as well, if he gets 401 PA he is only owed 2 million dollars, even if by some miracle he is only the third best MI option for us at that point he still makes a decent UTIL player and a decent clubhouse guy.

Its not about the money, and its not about Carroll. He's a quality player for what he is.
Its about this team getting younger, and having guys coming through the system that will needed to be added to the 40 man, etc.
I'm not even saying they wouldnt like to bring him back for 2014, I just think they want to have the option, not be binded to it.
You never know how prospects are going to develop this year, you dont know what kind of trade offers you are going to get, you dont know which pending FA's from other teams might play well and start to become attractive, etc.
There is just a ton of unpredictable things that will happen between now and December, you would like to be able to have that option of having a spot on the roster open if someone younger is ready for it.
And, there is nothing to lose. If nobody is ready, and no FA's or trade options are attractive to the team, they can still bring him back on a 1 year deal.

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 11:24 PM
If Carroll remains to be one of the best two options for 2B/SS throughout the year (spoiler alert: there is a really good chance!) you gotta give him the at-bats. Again as mentioned before it's only 2 million dollars ($3 million less than we owe EACH to Correia and Blackburn this year!) If not I imagine the agent could possibly file a grievance with the players union? Hell, if he is giving us a .343 OBP out of the 9 hole, keep him playing every day!

Why do you "have" to give him at bats?
Is there some kind of glory to winning 72 games instead of only 70?
And no, the union cant do anything about it. Its not like they are putting him on the DL when he's really not hurt or something shady like that. The team can fill out the lineup any way they choose, its not up to the player or the agent. Teams do this all the time with vesting players. The agents and player may not like it, but they know its the business and know there is nothing they can do about it.

stringer bell
03-19-2013, 11:48 PM
No point in obligating a contract for Carroll for 2014 when I believe the club will improve with players who are not on the roster right now. I appreciate what Carroll offers and he is a great example to every ballplayer on the roster, but he shouldn't be on the roster in 2014.

Shane Wahl
03-20-2013, 12:24 AM
First of all, I am FASCINATED by the obsession around here with Carroll and that $2 million next year. WHO CARES!? $2 million for a 2014 utility infielder is really not terrible. I laugh every time I see this strange obsession manifest itself.

Second, why on earth should they add aging mediocrity to the middle infield? Florimon is NOT going to be as terrible as you all somehow hope he is. Also, Cedeno is not good AT ALL. One might as well just throw Ray Olmedo up there. It's the same result (both dumb).

Third, I cannot fathom why anyone wants to add more mediocre aging nonsense to the Twins middle infield. That is generally YOUR complaint about Carroll in the first place!

Shane Wahl
03-20-2013, 12:26 AM
Haha. If 2013 is a joke, why EVER add nonsense like this to your roster? Just play young guys.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-20-2013, 01:54 AM
Its not about the money, and its not about Carroll. He's a quality player for what he is.
Its about this team getting younger, and having guys coming through the system that will needed to be added to the 40 man, etc.
I'm not even saying they wouldnt like to bring him back for 2014, I just think they want to have the option, not be binded to it.
You never know how prospects are going to develop this year, you dont know what kind of trade offers you are going to get, you dont know which pending FA's from other teams might play well and start to become attractive, etc.
There is just a ton of unpredictable things that will happen between now and December, you would like to be able to have that option of having a spot on the roster open if someone younger is ready for it.
And, there is nothing to lose. If nobody is ready, and no FA's or trade options are attractive to the team, they can still bring him back on a 1 year deal.

No it's about the team winning games, and if at 40 years old Carroll is better than the Escobars and Florimons of the world in this organization (there is a good chance he will be!) then you keep him around in 2014 as either a starter or a UTIL guy.

The only way he gets 400 at bats this year is IF is is contributing, if that is the case at the very least you could always trade him in the off-season to a team since he is as a guy with a .340 OBP or whatever who can play SS/2B/3B has 2 Mil worth of value.

Also at the very least if he is productive and you pull some shady crap to keep him under 400 PA, it creates a ton of bad will for the team and makes them look cheap as hell, seriously its 2 million, not the 20+ mil owed to Johan if his thing vests.

Also as a last note: Carrolls WAR last year was 2.4 (2.6 and 2.2 the two years prior as well), while not "earth shattering" by any means if he matches his production this year he is easily worth the 2 million for 2014. (Keep in mind that Correia+Blackburn make 5x as much as him and he will highly likely post a higher WAR then them combined)

.340 OBP, above average to pretty damn good defense at SS, 2B and 3B, plus the whole "clubhouse guy" angle makes him almost a steal at 2 mil and is seriously the least of our worries moving forward.

jokin
03-20-2013, 02:27 AM
No it's about the team winning games, and if at 40 years old Carroll is better than the Escobars and Florimons of the world in this organization (there is a good chance he will be!) then you keep him around in 2014 as either a starter or a UTIL guy.

The only way he gets 400 at bats this year is IF is is contributing, if that is the case at the very least you could always trade him in the off-season to a team since he is as a guy with a .340 OBP or whatever who can play SS/2B/3B has 2 Mil worth of value.







I like having Carroll around as someone to set a good professional example to the new blood and will undoubtedly be Gardy's chief Chestnut out of the Fire in bailing out all the travailing that's likely to occur in the MI once again in 2013, and having him around for $2M next year really shouldn't bother anyone-

but-

I guess that Elfin Goodness doesn't translate over to ravenous interest by the rest of both leagues, as apparently interest was so low in obtaining his services that both the Dodgers and Indians let him walk away from them as a FA without obtaining a trade- and he took a $1M paycut to join the Dodgers. The one time he was traded? It was in 2007 between the Rockies and Indians for 5'10", Sean Smith, a career .260-hitting, lifetime minor league OF, so there was that...Sean Smith Statistics Batting | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa199211&position=OF)

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:33 AM
First of all, I am FASCINATED by the obsession around here with Carroll and that $2 million next year. WHO CARES!? $2 million for a 2014 utility infielder is really not terrible. I laugh every time I see this strange obsession manifest itself.

Second, why on earth should they add aging mediocrity to the middle infield? Florimon is NOT going to be as terrible as you all somehow hope he is. Also, Cedeno is not good AT ALL. One might as well just throw Ray Olmedo up there. It's the same result (both dumb).

Third, I cannot fathom why anyone wants to add more mediocre aging nonsense to the Twins middle infield. That is generally YOUR complaint about Carroll in the first place!

Did you not see the part where I stated that it has NOTHING to do with the money?

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:38 AM
No it's about the team winning games, and if at 40 years old Carroll is better than the Escobars and Florimons of the world in this organization (there is a good chance he will be!) then you keep him around in 2014 as either a starter or a UTIL guy.

The only way he gets 400 at bats this year is IF is is contributing, if that is the case at the very least you could always trade him in the off-season to a team since he is as a guy with a .340 OBP or whatever who can play SS/2B/3B has 2 Mil worth of value.

Also at the very least if he is productive and you pull some shady crap to keep him under 400 PA, it creates a ton of bad will for the team and makes them look cheap as hell, seriously its 2 million, not the 20+ mil owed to Johan if his thing vests.

Also as a last note: Carrolls WAR last year was 2.4 (2.6 and 2.2 the two years prior as well), while not "earth shattering" by any means if he matches his production this year he is easily worth the 2 million for 2014. (Keep in mind that Correia+Blackburn make 5x as much as him and he will highly likely post a higher WAR then them combined)

.340 OBP, above average to pretty damn good defense at SS, 2B and 3B, plus the whole "clubhouse guy" angle makes him almost a steal at 2 mil and is seriously the least of our worries moving forward.

1) I never said he shouldnt come back in 2014. I'm just saying it doesnt do any good to guarantee it. If things happen to work out in a way that Carroll is the best option, you can still re sign him to a 1 year deal.

2) Limiting him to under 400 PA is not shady. Teams do it all the time, and I've never read or heard of any long term "ill will" towards these clubs because of it. The player and agent know that this is a possibility when they sign the deal.

3) I agree that Carroll is a steal for that kind of money, but for the 3rd or 4th time, for me it has NOTHING to do with the money, its the guaranteed roster spot. There is just no good reason for a rebuilding team to guarantee a guy that age a roster spot, if they dont have to, especially when they could still re sign him if they decide to keep him around.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-20-2013, 08:59 AM
1) I never said he shouldnt come back in 2014. I'm just saying it doesnt do any good to guarantee it. If things happen to work out in a way that Carroll is the best option, you can still re sign him to a 1 year deal.

2) Limiting him to under 400 PA is not shady. Teams do it all the time, and I've never read or heard of any long term "ill will" towards these clubs because of it. The player and agent know that this is a possibility when they sign the deal.

3) I agree that Carroll is a steal for that kind of money, but for the 3rd or 4th time, for me it has NOTHING to do with the money, its the guaranteed roster spot. There is just no good reason for a rebuilding team to guarantee a guy that age a roster spot, if they dont have to, especially when they could still re sign him if they decide to keep him around.

The thing is over the last 3 years Carroll has averaged 487 PA a year, assuming he is healthy and productive there is zero reason why the Twins should keep him from getting 400 PA for the entire sake of saving a potential 2 million. That is shady and I imagine they (the agent and player) could file a grievance if they choose to do so.

Again, other then Dozier who is a question mark himself there is literally zero coming through the MI pipeline anytime soon, (unless Rosario somehow progresses even quicker) and at the worst case scenario you have your veteran Util guy locked in for 2014, hell this is a team that continues to give roster spaces to the Drew Butera's of the world having one "lock" in for 2014 for Carroll isn't going to destroy them in any sense of the word. Especially when the guys knocking on the door to replace him are the Florimons and Escobars of the world :s-bluecap:

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 09:05 AM
The thing is over the last 3 years Carroll has averaged 487 PA a year, assuming he is healthy and productive there is zero reason why the Twins should keep him from getting 400 PA for the entire sake of saving a potential 2 million. That is shady and I imagine they (the agent and player) could file a grievance if they choose to do so.

Again, other then Dozier who is a question mark himself there is literally zero coming through the MI pipeline anytime soon, (unless Rosario somehow progresses even quicker) and at the worst case scenario you have your veteran Util guy locked in for 2014, hell this is a team that continues to give roster spaces to the Drew Butera's of the world having one "lock" in for 2014 for Carroll isn't going to destroy them in any sense of the word. Especially when the guys knocking on the door to replace him are the Florimons and Escobars of the world :s-bluecap:

I dont know how many times I have to say that it has NOTHING to do with the money.
If we decide we still need him, we could re sign him for MORE than $2 million! Money means almost nothing when you are sitting $30 million under budget.

I agree with EVERYTHING you said, except with the following caveat:
Why GUARANTEE his roster spot if you dont have to? There is zero reason why everything you wrote cannot still apply, but without guaranteeing the roster spot.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-20-2013, 09:13 AM
I dont know how many times I have to say that it has NOTHING to do with the money.
If we decide we still need him, we could re sign him for MORE than $2 million! Money means almost nothing when you are sitting $30 million under budget.

I agree with EVERYTHING you said, except with the following caveat:
Why GUARANTEE his roster spot if you dont have to? There is zero reason why everything you wrote cannot still apply, but without guaranteeing the roster spot.

The point is the Twins shouldn't go out of there way to make sure the roster spot isn't guaranteed, this isn't 600 PA, this isn't the 215 IP Santana needs for his option to kick in, this is 400 PA, which again, there is no reason why Carroll shouldn't achieve on this team, with this lineup, as long as he remains effective and healthy.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 09:29 AM
The point is the Twins shouldn't go out of there way to make sure the roster spot isn't guaranteed, this isn't 600 PA, this isn't the 215 IP Santana needs for his option to kick in, this is 400 PA, which again, there is no reason why Carroll shouldn't achieve on this team, with this lineup, as long as he remains effective and healthy.

So to you winning 72 games instead of just 70 is some kind of achievement?
Okay, thats fine. I can respect that if that is how you feel. In that case we will never agree on this issue, and might as well stop discussing it.
To me, sacrificing a couple games this year if it means possibly getting better for the future is worth it.
You keep bringing up Florimon and Dozier and Escobar, as if those are the only options in the world. You either ignore or dont consider the possibility that there could be FA upgrades or tradeable upgrades that the team might have in mind, and might want to reserve a roster spot for. Just one of many possible reasons why its pointless to guarantee a roster spot to someone of his age when you dont have to.

spycake
03-20-2013, 09:33 AM
Interesting that Carroll is making $3.75 million this year, and made $2.75 million last year (for an average $3.25 million) -- yet his option for next year is only $2 million. How often is an option year -- a vesting team option, no less -- worth significantly less than the previous contract year(s)? Looks like the Twins were willing to overpay for 2012-2013 to avoid a fully guaranteed three year commitment? Or they projected him as a likely starter in 2012-2013 and more of a backup in 2014? Or both player and team were being realistic about Carroll's prospects as a 40-year-old in 2014? Or maybe Carroll has plans to retire after 2013 anyway, and wanted more money upfront...

In any case, Carroll is clearly our best middle infielder at this point, and his 2014 salary looks like a bargain compared to 2012-2013. And unless two of Dozier/Florimon/Escobar quickly establish themselves as solid major league regulars, he is quite likely to be one of our top two middle infielders going into 2014 as well. (For that matter, until Plouffe recovers his power stroke, he might be one of our best third base options as well.)

While the Twins would love to see younger, cheaper players establish themselves at these positions (hence why Carroll is not being considered for a starting role at the beginning of this season), there is no plan or order to keep his 2014 option from vesting. Nor should there be.

zenser
03-20-2013, 11:11 AM
If we are going to add a MI my preference would be Freddy Sanchez. I know he can't play SS. He could fill a gap until Dozier/Florimon/Escobar prove they can hit at the major league level. He is also a 2 hole hitter so Gardy could easily pencil him in at 2B and bat second.

ashburyjohn
03-20-2013, 11:53 AM
It would be nice not to have Escobar, who is essentially the same player, as a replacement.

I've seen Florimon bat, but not Escobar. Escobar is still so young, and his minor league hitting progress (until 2012) was good enough, that I don't lump them together, unless you're telling me that he flails at good pitches the way Florimon does.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 01:12 PM
Interesting that Carroll is making $3.75 million this year, and made $2.75 million last year (for an average $3.25 million) -- yet his option for next year is only $2 million. How often is an option year -- a vesting team option, no less -- worth significantly less than the previous contract year(s)? Looks like the Twins were willing to overpay for 2012-2013 to avoid a fully guaranteed three year commitment? Or they projected him as a likely starter in 2012-2013 and more of a backup in 2014? Or both player and team were being realistic about Carroll's prospects as a 40-year-old in 2014? Or maybe Carroll has plans to retire after 2013 anyway, and wanted more money upfront...

In any case, Carroll is clearly our best middle infielder at this point, and his 2014 salary looks like a bargain compared to 2012-2013. And unless two of Dozier/Florimon/Escobar quickly establish themselves as solid major league regulars, he is quite likely to be one of our top two middle infielders going into 2014 as well. (For that matter, until Plouffe recovers his power stroke, he might be one of our best third base options as well.)

While the Twins would love to see younger, cheaper players establish themselves at these positions (hence why Carroll is not being considered for a starting role at the beginning of this season), there is no plan or order to keep his 2014 option from vesting. Nor should there be.

Interesting that you can know that with 100% certainty. You must have a bug in TR's office, or be his right hand man.

Its also interesting that, given they dont care at all about the vesting option, Carroll would be given no chance to win a starting job, when he is clearly a better option than Florimon and/or Dozier.