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Seth Stohs
03-19-2013, 06:43 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1465-Looking-Back-2008-Minnesota-Twins-Draft

Jeremy Nygaard
03-19-2013, 08:00 AM
That's crazy that only six guys from the 2009 draft are still in the organization. Wow!

spycake
03-19-2013, 08:02 AM
Not sure what you mean by "there has been little minor league success" for a few of those guys taken after/around Gutierrez and Hunt:

- Jake Odorizzi has put up solid numbers in the minors and is still a top 100 BA prospect.
- Casey Kelly was a top-50 prospect this year, but looks to be having arm trouble now.
- Lonnie Chisenhall reached #25 on BA's list and while he doesn't project to be a star, he should be Cleveland's starting third baseman this year.

And those are just three of the guys I recognize.

Seth Stohs
03-19-2013, 08:11 AM
Not sure what you mean by "there has been little minor league success" for a few of those guys taken after/around Gutierrez and Hunt:

- Jake Odorizzi has put up solid numbers in the minors and is still a top 100 BA prospect.
- Casey Kelly was a top-50 prospect this year, but looks to be having arm trouble now.
- Lonnie Chisenhall reached #25 on BA's list and while he doesn't project to be a star, he should be Cleveland's starting third baseman this year.

And those are just three of the guys I recognize.


I believe I meant little major league success... I'll change that. Those three could all play in the big leagues more than they already have.

spycake
03-19-2013, 08:29 AM
Ah, that makes more sense.

Although those three guys were all 19 and under when drafted, so it's not really surprising they haven't appeared much in the majors yet. Would it be equally accurate to dismiss Aaron Hicks right now because he hasn't had much major league success yet? These high school guys -- particularly high school pitchers -- are on a different track than older college guys like Gutierrez and Hunt.

I'm willing to give the Twins a pass on Hunt because he was a top talent who fell late -- a decent gamble to take. But Gutierrez was about as big a bust as you can find -- a college closer should be about the "safest" draft pick there, and Gutierrez provided zero value in the pros. Heck, even "riskier" high school picks Odorizzi and Kelly have both been used as valuable trade chits in their short careers already (A-Gon, Greinke, Shields).

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 08:46 AM
If you won't sign free agents that are big time, you need to be BETTER than the other teams at drafting and developing players, not as good as them. You can't get nothing out of those two college pitchers. Just a killer. Even when Hicks turns out to be good, it was a failed draft if you get nothing much out of the rest of the entire draft, imo. I know people won't agree with that. That said, Hunt was a decent risk to take, imo. Never liked the Gutteriez pick, much the same way I'm not a fan of them taking relievers last year.

It is funny, when I complain about them not getting starters later in the draft, people say "you can't expect that'. When I complain they pass on elite pitchers, people say "you can always find them later in the draft". One of those is not true.....

Seth Stohs
03-19-2013, 09:05 AM
I don't think I ever said anything about dismissing Hicks, Odorizzi, Kelly, etc. I'm just saying that there is no way to know in the draft, especially once you get past the first half of the first round.

And, I would agree that Gutierrez and Hunt were busts. I don't think anyone would disagree. It's just not surprising or unusual or anything.

Rick Niedermann
03-19-2013, 09:55 AM
I really enjoy this type of writing. It's alot of fun to look back at the hits and misses. I have to agree with mike wants wins that in this area the Twins need to do better. I remember not many were impressed with the pick of Gutierrez, including me. It looked like a bust from the start. Alot of Twins fans were patient and waiting for him to breakout. Plus he had already had arm trouble. Seemed like to big a gamble for that slot in the draft. We have do better then that when we get a draft pick that high up. It's the only way we continue to be competitive. Hopefully we go for the best player again this year with the Number 4. Sure hoping Apel is available and Boros doesn't scare off the Twins management.

nicksaviking
03-19-2013, 10:39 AM
"I think this is a good illustration of how difficult the draft can be."

Drafts are difficult, but for most of this century the Twins made it more difficult by seemingly passing on high school pitchers early on. Obviously they are more boom or bust, but the reward can be so much better. Perhaps I'm off base but the perception has always been the Twins will take a safe college arm over HS kids with upside. Looking at the HS prospects the Twins passed on to take Wimmers in 2010 makes my stomach churn.

Water under the bridge though. I'm going to assume they learned their lesson considering where they took Berrios last year and Boyd the year previous.

Seth Stohs
03-19-2013, 11:03 AM
Listen, I understand that point about the Twins not signing big free agent pitchers, and because of that they need to be better at the draft. It's a fair line of thinking. I just struggle with how realistic it can be. In a system where #1 (and 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, ...) overall picks don't make it all the time, I don't know that it's always realistic. They could make the absolutely perfect pick at the time, and two years later, some will be wondering how they could have taken the player. These are all people, not machines, and that element makes it what it is. Maybe it would be better to say that the Twins need to be more LUCKY than other teams when it comes to the draft if they're not going to sign the free agent pitchers?

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 11:03 AM
Except they passed on HS arms like crazy to take college relievers last year......very risky play, imo.

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 11:06 AM
If you pick a strategy, and they clearly have picked the strategy not to sign free agents, then you need to better, not just more lucky. You need to spend more on better coaching. You need to spend more on better nutrition and conditioning. You need to spend more on scouting. If all that doesn't work, you need to fire people until it does. It is a business. The Cardinals and Rays seem to draft and develop guys every year, that they either use or trade. It seems unlikely is it just luck.

And, if the only way your strategy will work is by being lucky, then you probably need to pick a different strategy, because relying on luck is not sustainable. That is, if it is not realistic to expect your strategy to work, you really, really need a new strategy.

spycake
03-19-2013, 11:14 AM
Seth -- I just read your statement:

Often people like to look back and see which players were drafted after picks that didn’t work out. To the point, there has been little major league success for the players taken between Gutierrez at 27 and Jordan Lyles at 38
as somewhat of an excuse for the Twins draft, in that the players taken immediately after Gutierrez and Hunt haven't done much in the majors either. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you meant? Most of the other guys drafted in that range were much younger than Gutierrez and Hunt, several likely will stick in the majors in 2013 and beyond, and several have already provided good value to their drafting teams in trades even before reaching the majors.

My recollection is that Gutierrez was a suspect pick at the time -- definitely lower upside on him as a college closer, compared to most other picks in that range. The Twins were drafting conservatively, as they often do, and were maybe a little too complacent with their run of major league success at the time. Conservative drafts like Gutierrez certainly didn't help as their system starting emptying around this time and the big league club subsequently fell off the table in 2011.

I remember the consensus thought Hunt was a reasonable gamble in that draft range, still conservative enough for the Twins as an older college pitcher, but with some upside.

birdwatcher
03-19-2013, 11:19 AM
It's still too early to judge, but if Hicks becomes an outstanding player and Tomkin becomes a solid setup man, I'd call it a good draft I guess. I understand the argument that the Twins need to be good at drafting. My response is that they are, and their track record demonstrates this IF one bothers to make a COMPARATIVE judgment.

I have a different recollection of the scouting reports on Guttierrez. I seem to remember hearing that his sharp sinking fastball, clocked at 92-94, was already MLB ready, and that he needed to refine a secondary offering. And that illustrates the difficulty of being better than everyone else at this drafting business. I bet the scouting reports on him were practically interchangeable from team to team. Something tells me that, to be better than the next organization, you have to out-work them, not out-think them or tip the laptop upside down to get some new statistics.

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 11:30 AM
BW, we just won't agree on that. No MIF for how long? No 3B for how long? Their starting OF last year and DH were at least 2 medium free agents. Their entire starting pitching staff this year, not one was drafted by the Twins, right? Diamond, Worley, Correia, Pelfry, ?....ok, maybe ? was drafted by them. I just don't see how someone can say they have been good at drafting, given the quality of the guys that have come up the last few years. But, I'm guessing we are going to disagree on this point, no matter what either of us types......

nicksaviking
03-19-2013, 11:38 AM
Something tells me that, to be better than the next organization, you have to out-work them, not out-think them or tip the laptop upside down to get some new statistics.

The Twins don't use statistics anyway.

gil4
03-19-2013, 11:42 AM
...ok, maybe ? was drafted by them.

Nice. Where is the "like" button (preferably wothout the cute little hearts) when you need it.

clutterheart
03-19-2013, 12:15 PM
Kolten Wong - I read that he was ready to sign withthe Twins. But the Twins did't even give him an offer until the deadlIne.
Too bad.

birdwatcher
03-19-2013, 12:27 PM
BW, we just won't agree on that. No MIF for how long? No 3B for how long? Their starting OF last year and DH were at least 2 medium free agents. Their entire starting pitching staff this year, not one was drafted by the Twins, right? Diamond, Worley, Correia, Pelfry, ?....ok, maybe ? was drafted by them. I just don't see how someone can say they have been good at drafting, given the quality of the guys that have come up the last few years. But, I'm guessing we are going to disagree on this point, no matter what either of us types......

You're right, mike, we're going to reach different conclusions from different facts. The MI has been a hole for sure, but please don't ignore that Worley and Diamond were exchanged for draft choices, and Hendriks is theirs. Don't ignore that 2/3rds of last year's OF were draft choices. The 2013 startng lineup will include Hicks, Dozier, Mauer, Morneau, Parmelee,and Plouffe, all draft choices. So, I think this points to what I consider at worst a pretty average-looking performance from our draft and development people over the time period required to assemble these players. Does that work for you? Average over that time period?

Now, more recently, and in part because of the post-Target Field revenues, the story gets much much much better. You know their system is ranked as high as #3 (Law). Just possibly, is this because they're better at it than most these days? You know of the high-profile international guys: Sano, Arcia, Kepler, Polanco. Do you give them enough credit for this part of their track record?

But here's a more recent indicator: Sickels posted his top 150 prospects list. Now, if talent was evenly distributed, meaning all teams were almost equally adept (not factoring draft order), wouldn't each team have 5 prospects on the list? Why do the Twins have 9 prospects on it? Why does the rest of the AL Central have a total of 12 prospects, every one of them ranked lower than our top 3? And now, we signed the #7 and #22 ranked international prospects for this past year, Minier and Silva.

So, you can say the Twins are bad at drafting and development, and point to the fact that they don't have a draftee playing at SS, 2B, 3B, at least that meets with your approval. I look at these facts, and others, and draw a different conclusion. They may have been too average in the past, but I think they'r pretty good now.

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 12:31 PM
Listen, I understand that point about the Twins not signing big free agent pitchers, and because of that they need to be better at the draft. It's a fair line of thinking. I just struggle with how realistic it can be. In a system where #1 (and 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, ...) overall picks don't make it all the time, I don't know that it's always realistic. They could make the absolutely perfect pick at the time, and two years later, some will be wondering how they could have taken the player. These are all people, not machines, and that element makes it what it is. Maybe it would be better to say that the Twins need to be more LUCKY than other teams when it comes to the draft if they're not going to sign the free agent pitchers?

The Rays and A's seem to do a pretty good job at it.

old nurse
03-19-2013, 12:35 PM
It would appear that people are forgetting a few things along the way. It is hard to fire the scouts for a bad draft as the results are not known for years. I can't remember where I read it but the Twins do keep track of how well the scouts do with their recommendations and move out the less successful ones. The current scouting director would appear to be getting the job done by the prospect rating lists. Baseball drafting is rarely the instant gratification that some seek.
In 2000 the Tampa team drafted Shields in the 16th round. No other player from that draft made much of an impact for Tampa. They signed 6 pitchers that they drafted before Shields. None ended up household names. The following year, nobody they drafted played much in the majors. They drafted 9 pitchers in 16 rounds 16 being where they picked Shields) There is a lot of luck involved.

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 12:42 PM
I'm not saying the Rays and A's hit on every single pitcher they take, that would be impossible.
I'm saying those 2 organizations hit a lot more than most, so I have a hard time believing that it is purely luck. Clearly there is something those 2 organizations are doing better when it comes to scouting and/or developing pitchers outside of the first couple rounds.

Seth Stohs
03-19-2013, 12:45 PM
as somewhat of an excuse for the Twins draft, in that the players taken immediately after Gutierrez and Hunt haven't done much in the majors either. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you meant?

Not trying to make any excuses... I just know that every team has picks that work and that don't work. Whether it is college pitchers or high school pitchers. It's just illustrating that it's impossible to know with any certainty on any draft pick. No matter what you think, there's no guarantees with any of them. Some pan out great. Some pan out OK. Some bust. That's the reality. No one makes a pick thinking they're going to bust.

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 01:08 PM
Those international signings were when they could spend whatever they wanted, and they paid more than most teams, and not surprisingly, spending more led to better players....a lesson they should tale to the majors.

As for the guys coming up soon, not sure how that excuses the last few years . I am hopeful this new batch is good, but we just do not know yet. Yes, the minors are better now, but that is partly driven by willing to totally abandon last year and this year being good teams.

Of the starting pitching likely to start the first 2 months of the year, none were drafted by this team.

I would think that three years of being one of the worst teams in the league would indicate they do not have a lot of good players. Maybe I am drawing the wrong conclusion from that data point, but I do not think so.

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 01:15 PM
Sorry Seth, I got is off topic. I think I have beaten my point into the ground, and should probably stop now before I make someone mad...

Seth Stohs
03-19-2013, 01:33 PM
The Rays and A's seem to do a pretty good job at it.

A's
2004 first-round draft picks: Landon Powell, Dan Putnam, Huston Street, Rich Robnett
2005: Cliff Pennington, Travis Buck
2006: none
2007: Donald Simmons, Sean Doolittle (1B, now reliever), Corey Brown
2008: Jemile Weeks
2009: Grant Green
2010: Michael Choice

Rays
2004: Jeff Niemann
2005: Wade Townsend
2006: Evan Longoria
2007: David Price
2008: Tim Beckham
2009: LeVon Washington (Did Not Sign)

So, yup, the Rays drafted Longoria and Price with Top 5 picks, also Beckham. Niemann has been OK. Townsend was one of hte biggest flops ever. The A's are kind of hit and miss as well. Certainly no star caliber choices there...

So, I guess... do the A's and Rays draft and develop any bette than the Twins... Or, did they get lucky with guys like Matt Moore in the 8th round? I don't know the answer to that.

birdwatcher
03-19-2013, 02:02 PM
The Rays and A's seem to do a pretty good job at it.

Yes, The Rays and A's are pretty good at it too, but remember, they've both had extended cycles of subpar MLB results and benefitted hugely by having a favrable draft order.

In this year's draft, the pundits say there are MAYBE a half-dozen blue chip prospects. The third-best pitcher is touted as a posible #2-3 starter in MLB. Last year was even worse. So, let's assume for a moment that the average draft contains 10 blue-chippers. A team that has had a top ten pick most years for a decade SHOULD be "pretty good at it", don't you think?

birdwatcher
03-19-2013, 02:26 PM
mike, Ben Revere was a draft choice, right? He got good enough to have trade value, and fetched us Worley and May. So none of the guys in the rotation were drafted by the team. That's your story and you're sticking to it. Hendriks was signed by them, Gibson is next in line, Worley is a product of Revere. But just ignore that, and pretend the Twins just can't seem to develop their own talent. By the way it's been TWO, not three, horrible years, preceeded by quite a few decent years, but let's ignore this too.

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 02:26 PM
I dont think either of the last 2 posters realize that I was talking about pitchers they have drafted LATER than the first couple of rounds.
I am not really sure what draft order has to do with anything when you are talking about players being drafted after every team has already passed on them at least once.

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 02:41 PM
I'm assuming this year is going to be awful, I should have made that clear, I thought I had, but I guess not.....but again, I'm done. Not much for me to add one way or the other, and we just won't agree......I do agree with the idea that trading guys for other guys counts, but I thought I addressed that when I said, they are able to do that because they are willing to stink (my words and belief) this year.....if they wanted to compete this year, I think it would be harder to make those trades for minor leaguers. But again, I've already said that, and I'm not sure what new i can say.

I'm not ignoring anyting, all of what you posted was attempted to be addressed. If I failed in that, my apologies.

birdwatcher
03-19-2013, 03:19 PM
it was a good discussion, mike. no apologies required. I appreciate your civility.

mike wants wins
03-19-2013, 03:25 PM
I promise, Seth, next time I'll concentrate just on the year....and NOT bring this up.....Indeed, I am kind of curious to look at a few other teams to see how they really do, and see how they are really built....my assumptions might just be off, would not surprise me. So if anything, you've given me another reason to spend time on the interwebs....

BW, glad to read.

Loosey
03-19-2013, 04:58 PM
My feeling has always been the Twins try to get the best value out of their 1st round picks. Instead of shooting for the stars and going all in on a high school pitching prospect that has a 50/50 chance of either bombing out or becoming a super star, they take the "safer" college pitcher with less upside but only a 25% of being a complete bust but a 75% of being a #3 starter. Whether this is right or wrong I don't know, I do know however that a team full of #3 starters isn't going to win many World Series. . . .

ThePuck
03-19-2013, 05:04 PM
My feeling has always been the Twins try to get the best value out of their 1st round picks. Instead of shooting for the stars and going all in on a high school pitching prospect that has a 50/50 chance of either bombing out or becoming a super star, they take the "safer" college pitcher with less upside but only a 25% of being a complete bust but a 75% of being a #3 starter. Whether this is right or wrong I don't know, I do know however that a team full of #3 starters isn't going to win many World Series. . . .

Or they just draft a toolsy H School OF...

Seth Stohs
03-19-2013, 05:20 PM
My feeling has always been the Twins try to get the best value out of their 1st round picks. Instead of shooting for the stars and going all in on a high school pitching prospect that has a 50/50 chance of either bombing out or becoming a super star, they take the "safer" college pitcher with less upside but only a 25% of being a complete bust but a 75% of being a #3 starter. Whether this is right or wrong I don't know, I do know however that a team full of #3 starters isn't going to win many World Series. . . .

This was actually one of the premises that the pundits lauded the A's with from Moneyball.

Kwak
03-19-2013, 05:23 PM
Yes, The Rays and A's are pretty good at it too, but remember, they've both had extended cycles of subpar MLB results and benefitted hugely by having a favrable draft order.

In this year's draft, the pundits say there are MAYBE a half-dozen blue chip prospects. The third-best pitcher is touted as a posible #2-3 starter in MLB. Last year was even worse. So, let's assume for a moment that the average draft contains 10 blue-chippers. A team that has had a top ten pick most years for a decade SHOULD be "pretty good at it", don't you think?

The A's have had a great deal of success by trading high-quality SPs for multiple SPs. They wind up with a higher number of quality pitchers (who are also younger and haven't yet been injured) that coincidentily have a much lower salary. It seems to me that these guys don't spend much time in the minors before being promoted to the ML (as opposed to the Twins).

Han Joelo
03-19-2013, 05:35 PM
I'm not going to whitewash the past, but give the Twins some credit for drafting HS arms Berrios and Boyd with high picks.

As for Bard, Melatokis, and Chargois (No-Run BMC), if even one of them develops into a viable starter, I'd be happy, especially if the other two made it as relievers. Imagine if all three were to make it as starter: Someone would write a book about how the Twins revolutionized draft strategy

Han Joelo
03-19-2013, 05:40 PM
Hudson: OK. Mulder was great in that he soon broke down and Haren was a stud. But they didn't get much for Haren or Gonzalez. The Andrew Bailey deal worked out pretty good. Not resigning Zito (like they had a chance) was smart. However, considering what he yielded in free agent dollars, how much could they have reaped by sticking to their "philosophy" and trading him for prospects?


The A's have had a great deal of success by trading high-quality SPs for multiple SPs. They wind up with a higher number of quality pitchers (who are also younger and haven't yet been injured) that coincidentily have a much lower salary. It seems to me that these guys don't spend much time in the minors before being promoted to the ML (as opposed to the Twins).

The Wise One
03-19-2013, 07:08 PM
I'm not saying the Rays and A's hit on every single pitcher they take, that would be impossible.
I'm saying those 2 organizations hit a lot more than most, so I have a hard time believing that it is purely luck. Clearly there is something those 2 organizations are doing better when it comes to scouting and/or developing pitchers outside of the first couple rounds.
Outside o
f the first round, what pitcher other than Leake and Baily has the Oakland braintrust drafted in the later rounds that panned out. You have to go all of the way back to 1998. Is that the track record you want to emulate? They have been very good at trading for prospects and first round pick ups.
Tampa Bay can draft but not pay for players. Their trades have not worked out so well. Every organization does some things well, some not.

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 07:30 PM
Outside o
f the first round, what pitcher other than Leake and Baily has the Oakland braintrust drafted in the later rounds that panned out. You have to go all of the way back to 1998. Is that the track record you want to emulate? They have been very good at trading for prospects and first round pick ups.
Tampa Bay can draft but not pay for players. Their trades have not worked out so well. Every organization does some things well, some not.

I'm not saying they hit HR's with those picks, but they at least get some value out of them.
Dallas Braden gave them 4.5 wins above replacement from the 24th round, and would have given them more if not for injuries.
A.J. Griffin was a 13th rounder
Dan Straily was a 24th rounder
Trevor Cahill was a 2nd rounder
Dan Haren was a 2nd rounder
Rich Harden was a 13th rounder

Now how many starting pitchers have the Twins drafted outside of the first round over the last several years that have given them any value?

Kwak
03-19-2013, 09:21 PM
I'm not saying they hit HR's with those picks, but they at least get some value out of them.
Dallas Braden gave them 4.5 wins above replacement from the 24th round, and would have given them more if not for injuries.
A.J. Griffin was a 13th rounder
Dan Straily was a 24th rounder
Trevor Cahill was a 2nd rounder
Dan Haren was a 2nd rounder
Rich Harden was a 13th rounder

Now how many starting pitchers have the Twins drafted outside of the first round over the last several years that have given them any value?

Likely more than those drafted in the first round--because the Twins have had precious little success with pitchers selected in the first round.

The Wise One
03-19-2013, 09:50 PM
I'm not saying they hit HR's with those picks, but they at least get some value out of them.
Dallas Braden gave them 4.5 wins above replacement from the 24th round, and would have given them more if not for injuries.
A.J. Griffin was a 13th rounder
Dan Straily was a 24th rounder
Trevor Cahill was a 2nd rounder
Dan Haren was a 2nd rounder
Rich Harden was a 13th rounder

Now how many starting pitchers have the Twins drafted outside of the first round over the last several years that have given them any value?

Haren was a second rounder of the St Louis Cardinals. Strailey and Griffin have pitched less than a season each. Slowey was good for a season, Duensing came in and was good for a season as a starter. Cahill had numbers in his first years similar to Blackburn's. Oakland was wiser than the Twins. Dallas Braden injuries costing him. Kyle Gibson without the injury. That leaves Harden and Scott Baker. It is all how you want to twist things.

The Wise One
03-19-2013, 09:54 PM
Oh, Swarzak even had a positive WAR a year when he was a starter for half a season

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 10:09 PM
Oh, Swarzak even had a positive WAR a year when he was a starter for half a season

I wasnt talking about positive WAR for a season, or part of a season.

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 10:11 PM
Haren was a second rounder of the St Louis Cardinals. Strailey and Griffin have pitched less than a season each. Slowey was good for a season, Duensing came in and was good for a season as a starter. Cahill had numbers in his first years similar to Blackburn's. Oakland was wiser than the Twins. Dallas Braden injuries costing him. Kyle Gibson without the injury. That leaves Harden and Scott Baker. It is all how you want to twist things.

You are eliminating Cahill, why?
He has put up 10 WAR over 4 seasons. He's a solid starter, not comparable to Blackburn at all.

righty8383
03-19-2013, 10:18 PM
Likely more than those drafted in the first round--because the Twins have had precious little success with pitchers selected in the first round.

Adam Johnson was the biggest bust for sure. Garza was a solid pick. The jury is still out on Gibson and even Wimmers.

Jeremy Nygaard
03-19-2013, 10:25 PM
Or, did they get lucky with guys like Matt Moore in the 8th round? I don't know the answer to that.

Maybe it's been mentioned, but getting lucky with Matt Moore is a great thing for Twins fans to talk about. His signing scout was... (drumroll)... Jack Powell, who was the signing scout for Byron Buxton and Luke Bard and is out there looking for the next Matt Moore... only this time he'll be wearing TWINS on his chest.

The Wise One
03-19-2013, 10:48 PM
You are eliminating Cahill, why?
He has put up 10 WAR over 4 seasons. He's a solid starter, not comparable to Blackburn at all.
Fangraphs has Cahill as a career 8.8 and a better pitcher away from Oakland. Cahills 3 years in Oakland he totaled 5.5, which is less than Blackburn did..

Mr. Brooks
03-19-2013, 10:59 PM
Fangraphs has Cahill as a career 8.8 and a better pitcher away from Oakland. Cahills 3 years in Oakland he totaled 5.5, which is less than Blackburn did..

Why are we only counting Cahills first 3 years?
The point was that the A's are good at finding at developing pitching in the later rounds. Where a guy pitches 4 or more years down the road doesnt change the fact that he was drafted and developed by the A's.
Or could it be that is the line at which Blackburn's predictable regression to what he really was all along began, so you didnt want to include year 4?

cmb0252
03-20-2013, 01:24 PM
I think looking at this draft and the 2009/2010 drafts it clearly shows why we are struggling now. Hunt, guts, Gibson, and wimmers all haven't given us any war on the big league level for different reasons. While it is still too early to call the 2009/2010, or even the 2008, drafts a bust...when you draft college arms who you expect to make it to the bigs fast and don't, you are left with a lot of holes.

Obviously Gibson and Wimmers still have time but if they didn't need TJs we wouldn't be arguing about the pitching staff as much. But, injuries happen and it is just part of the game. Hopefully Hicks, Herm, and Tonk turn this draft class around this year.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 01:41 PM
I think looking at this draft and the 2009/2010 drafts it clearly shows why we are struggling now. Hunt, guts, Gibson, and wimmers all haven't given us any war on the big league level for different reasons. While it is still too early to call the 2009/2010, or even the 2008, drafts a bust...when you draft college arms who you expect to make it to the bigs fast and don't, you are left with a lot of holes.

Obviously Gibson and Wimmers still have time but if they didn't need TJs we wouldn't be arguing about the pitching staff as much. But, injuries happen and it is just part of the game. Hopefully Hicks, Herm, and Tonk turn this draft class around this year.

Wimmers was a disaster before the TJ. Remember they had to keep him in extended ST because he got a case of the Knoblauchs?

birdwatcher
03-20-2013, 05:17 PM
Is it possible Wimmers was pitching hurt for a few stints there? Earlier, he was lights out for a while too. Calling him a "disaster" is maybe a bit harsh.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 05:22 PM
Is it possible Wimmers was pitching hurt for a few stints there? Earlier, he was lights out for a while too. Calling him a "disaster" is maybe a bit harsh.

Okay, disaster might be harsh. But it wasnt good, whatever you want to call it.
No, he wasnt hurt at that time. That was well before the injury.

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 08:02 PM
I wasnt talking about positive WAR for a season, or part of a season.

If you don't count half a season then Strailey and Griffin are not included in being a great find in the late rounds as they have not even pitched complete season's. If one pays attention there have been many pitchers that have half seasons of great sucess then never to reach more than mediocrity again. So if part seasons don't count the A's have found Cahill and Harden after the first round and The Twins have found Baker and a bunch of medocre pitchers who have spent time in the starting rotation with varing degrees of sucess.

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 08:04 PM
Wimmers was a disaster before the TJ. Remember they had to keep him in extended ST because he got a case of the Knoblauchs?

Are you aware that the UCL inury is a use injury and not a trauma injury. As the use injury gets worse , performance can suffer.

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 08:13 PM
Why are we only counting Cahills first 3 years?
The point was that the A's are good at finding at developing pitching in the later rounds. Where a guy pitches 4 or more years down the road doesnt change the fact that he was drafted and developed by the A's.
Or could it be that is the line at which Blackburn's predictable regression to what he really was all along began, so you didnt want to include year 4?

Is Blackburn's regression due due a change in mechanics due to pain in the elbow from the chips?

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:13 PM
Are you aware that the UCL inury is a use injury and not a trauma injury. As the use injury gets worse , performance can suffer.

As far as i'm aware, the control issues were well before the injury, and was not related to it.
If you have a link suggesting otherwise I would be happy to be wrong (because I actually like the Wimmers pick and hope we get some value from him), but it would be the first I have seen of it.

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:15 PM
Is Blackburn's regression due due a change in mechanics due to pain in the elbow from the chips?

I'm not sure where you are going with this?
Are you suggesting that Blackburn wasnt terrible in '10 and '11, or are you suggesting that he was pitching with elbow pain for 3 full years?

Mr. Brooks
03-20-2013, 08:17 PM
If you don't count half a season then Strailey and Griffin are not included in being a great find in the late rounds as they have not even pitched complete season's. If one pays attention there have been many pitchers that have half seasons of great sucess then never to reach more than mediocrity again. So if part seasons don't count the A's have found Cahill and Harden after the first round and The Twins have found Baker and a bunch of medocre pitchers who have spent time in the starting rotation with varing degrees of sucess.

Dallas Braden was a good find. The fact he had injuries doesnt change that.
To find 4.5 WAR from that round is good value, even if he never plays again.

Griffin and Straily have been successful so far, so until they show otherwise, I'll put them in the good value category. If they prove to be flukes, I'll move them out of that category at that time.
We can only go with the information we have now, we cant attempt to predict the future.

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 10:16 PM
As far as i'm aware, the control issues were well before the injury, and was not related to it.
If you have a link suggesting otherwise I would be happy to be wrong (because I actually like the Wimmers pick and hope we get some value from him), but it would be the first I have seen of it.

Are you sure you understand the concept of a use injury. How do you know when the UCL starts to deteriorate and have an effect on the pitching? In Wimmers case please tell me how you would know?

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 10:23 PM
Dallas Braden was a good find. The fact he had injuries doesnt change that.
To find 4.5 WAR from that round is good value, even if he never plays again.

Griffin and Straily have been successful so far, so until they show otherwise, I'll put them in the good value category. If they prove to be flukes, I'll move them out of that category at that time.
We can only go with the information we have now, we cant attempt to predict the future.

So I go look up Braden on Fangraphs. No 4.5 WAR anywhere for a season. 7.4 total war for a 4 year career puts him as an average, not exceptional

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 10:25 PM
There is still no statistical analysis that would give you a clearcut edge to Oakland's finding pitchers in the later rounds is statitically significant.

Kwak
03-20-2013, 10:34 PM
There is still no statistical analysis that would give you a clearcut edge to Oakland's finding pitchers in the later rounds is statitically significant.

Maybe it isn't finding better pitchers, maybe the A's are better at developing pitchers? The Twins are legend of adhering to their dogma, and just maybe the A's philosophy of pitching is better? There are other factors than initial selection.

The Wise One
03-20-2013, 11:12 PM
Maybe it isn't finding better pitchers, maybe the A's are better at developing pitchers? The Twins are legend of adhering to their dogma, and just maybe the A's philosophy of pitching is better? There are other factors than initial selection.
In the 15 year period Mr Brooks cited they developed 5 lower round pitchers into pitchers that pitched at the major league level. I really don't think you would find a statitacilly significant number in the pitchers Oakland developed in the minor leagues than any other club. In terms of Twin's dogma on pitching, is wanting the Twin's pitchers to be aggressive going after the hitters a bad thing? Billy Beane looks for pitchers that command the strike zone.

Mr. Brooks
03-21-2013, 11:53 AM
Are you sure you understand the concept of a use injury. How do you know when the UCL starts to deteriorate and have an effect on the pitching? In Wimmers case please tell me how you would know?

Again, I could be wrong on this, it was a while ago, but didnt they get that control problem fixed before the injury?
Like I said, I could be remembering it wrong, but if they did, that would make it hard to blame the control problems on the injury, if he was able to correct them before it was even discovered.

Mr. Brooks
03-21-2013, 11:55 AM
So I go look up Braden on Fangraphs. No 4.5 WAR anywhere for a season. 7.4 total war for a 4 year career puts him as an average, not exceptional

When in the hell did I ever say he had 4.5 for a season?
4.4 is what his career WAR is on bbr, that is what i was referring to.
And who ever said he was exceptional? The guy was drafted in the late rounds, I'm talking about finding value there, not all stars.

Do you think that any compliment paid to another organization is automatically meant to be an insult to the Twins?

righty8383
03-21-2013, 12:07 PM
Again, I could be wrong on this, it was a while ago, but didnt they get that control problem fixed before the injury?
Like I said, I could be remembering it wrong, but if they did, that would make it hard to blame the control problems on the injury, if he was able to correct them before it was even discovered.

Your memory is correct. He fixed his control problems and pitched fine in the 2nd half of 2011. His last start of the season was a (7 inning) no hitter. So I agree that his control issues were not related to his future elbow injury.

Kwak
03-21-2013, 06:08 PM
In the 15 year period Mr Brooks cited they developed 5 lower round pitchers into pitchers that pitched at the major league level. I really don't think you would find a statitacilly significant number in the pitchers Oakland developed in the minor leagues than any other club. In terms of Twin's dogma on pitching, is wanting the Twin's pitchers to be aggressive going after the hitters a bad thing? Billy Beane looks for pitchers that command the strike zone.

"Command the strike zone" can be interpreted two ways--1) consistently placing the ball on the fringe of the zone, but avoiding the middle of the zone; or 2) pounding the strikezone incessently such that it is rarely missed, accepting the inevitable that there will be many pitches left in the middle of the strike zone. Since the Twins have made a religion of limiting walks it is clear the Twins use definition 2). That strategy isn't working.

diehardtwinsfan
03-22-2013, 10:41 AM
"Command the strike zone" can be interpreted two ways--1) consistently placing the ball on the fringe of the zone, but avoiding the middle of the zone; or 2) pounding the strikezone incessently such that it is rarely missed, accepting the inevitable that there will be many pitches left in the middle of the strike zone. Since the Twins have made a religion of limiting walks it is clear the Twins use definition 2). That strategy isn't working.

Actually, you missed a key point in both models, namely the ability to expand the zone. Pitchers who can hit their spots can also confidently throw pitches just out side the zone, which will force a lot of hitters to swing and make weak contact and occasionally get umps to expand the zone with them as well.

My problem with the Twins' philosophy on pitching isn't the limiting walks concept (because that does correlate to runs saved), but the refusal to allow for strategic balls and the undervaluing of a strike out. Carl Pavano is one that comes to mind on this. He could hit his spots well, but I never saw him expand the zone. Good hitters approached him by swinging at everything he offered... at that point, he should have been throwing stuff off the plate...