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Nick Nelson
03-14-2013, 07:12 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1456-Position-Analyis-First-Base

Thrylos
03-14-2013, 09:11 PM
I think that Colabello will be more likely than Clement at this point...

Rosterman
03-14-2013, 09:28 PM
Twins just added former Cardinal Curt Smith to start, most likely, at New Britain.

Snortwood
03-14-2013, 10:03 PM
My hope for this is that Morneau pulls it together and Parmelee hits great and proves he's a first baseman, and the Twins trade Parmelee for another strong young arm and re-sign Justin to another long-term deal. Dudley Dooright belongs in the great white north!

Yoshii
03-14-2013, 10:09 PM
It would really be nice if Morneau could pull it together and stay a Twin. Among all the negativity surrounding the Twins these past two seasons, I believe in Morneau. He will get it done this year.

Shane Wahl
03-14-2013, 11:26 PM
In my view, the long term view is going to be:

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

glunn
03-14-2013, 11:50 PM
In my view, the long term view is going to be:

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

I like Shane's analysis of this, but wonder if Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee would fetch a decent SS, 3B and SP. I also worry about trading these three players and taking the risk that Morneau gets injured again.

I am hoping that Morneau gets back to his MVP form. If the Twins are sellers at the trade deadline, I would think that a healthy Morneau might fetch a lot better prospect(s) than the other three combined. And if the Twins are anywhere near contending at the trade deadline, it seems to me that Morneau (and Willingham) should be virtually untouchable -- these are proven players who (along with Mauer) could carry the Twins to the wild card or better.

Blackjack
03-15-2013, 06:21 AM
If Morneau plays the whole season with the Twins, and signs with another team in the off season, will the Twins get any compensation in the form of an extra draft pick?? If the answer is yes, I think thats what will happen. TR/Twins get something out of it and Justin ends up being the bad guy for going elsewhere - shades of Tori Hunter.

Dumaits not getting traded, they like him as a replacement for Mauer, keeps Mauer healthy and on the field.

FrodaddyG
03-15-2013, 06:42 AM
If Morneau plays the whole season with the Twins, and signs with another team in the off season, will the Twins get any compensation in the form of an extra draft pick?? If the answer is yes, I think thats what will happen.
They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 06:58 AM
Fangrpahs has them as the 17th best 1B group.....they are not bullish on Morneau. Also, even if he is back, he's potentially past his prime. That said, I think he's going to have a very, very good year, and be traded. If not traded, I think he signs someplace else. I think this is our last shot to see him, which bums me out. He's a great player, and a great asset in the community.

Brock Beauchamp
03-15-2013, 06:59 AM
They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

Well, maybe. If Justin OPSes at .800, he'll take the Twins' offer. If he OPSes at .850 or better, there's a chance another team will offer him enough money and years to sway him away from the Twins.

Nick Nelson
03-15-2013, 08:18 AM
They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

It'll be an interesting situation, and it's nice because it keeps the Twins from being forced to move Morneau at the deadline if he's playing well and they're out of it.

In the event that no one offers up what they're looking for, they can keep him and give him a qualifying offer during the offseason. He either turns it down to look for a multi-year deal, in which case the Twins move on with their plans and get an extra draft pick, or they get him on a ~12M one-year deal for 2014. I'd take him back on those terms.

Of course, this is all predicated on Morneau having a good year, which is why his production this season is quite important to them.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 08:25 AM
In my view, the long term view is going to be:

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

Are you basing that off last season, or are you basing it off a handful of ST and WBC AB's?

jay
03-15-2013, 08:28 AM
I think the continued development this summer of our near-MLB OF prospects plays the biggest role in determining how they handle Morneau this season and next off-season if he's still around.

jokin
03-15-2013, 08:33 AM
Are you basing that off last season, or are you basing it off a handful of ST and WBC AB's?

It can't be based on last season because he definitely wasn't "dominant". Therefore, I guess in this instance, "domiant" is 11 ABs in the WBC and 23 in Spring Training. Who knew?

jay
03-15-2013, 08:43 AM
Well, maybe. If Justin OPSes at .800, he'll take the Twins' offer. If he OPSes at .850 or better, there's a chance another team will offer him enough money and years to sway him away from the Twins.

You'd think so, but LaRoche just OPS'ed .850 and had to sign for 2 years with his original team at less per annum than the qualifying $ amt. Morneau has had some better top-end years, but their career numbers aren't too far off.

Saying there's a chance is always a safe statement, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him return -- especially if there's a pick hanging over his head. I have a hard time picturing the Twins let him go if he has a strong/great year.

FrodaddyG
03-15-2013, 08:46 AM
or they get him on a ~12M one-year deal for 2014. I'd take him back on those terms.
I'm not sure what the exact calculations are that go into it, but wouldn't the qualifying offer amount likely go up from the $13M or whatever it was at this year? It does require him to have a good year to even take the chance on offering it, but if it's maybe going to be closer to $15-16M, is that an amount Morneau can possibly be worth on the far side of 30?

Really, unless he's playing at an absolute peak level again by the trade deadline, he needs to get moved for the best package possible. Morneau producing at 75% of his peak probably won't be worth risking that qualifying offer (leaving him most likely walking with no return), but may have value to a team with injury woes or weak production at 1B looking to push towards a playoff spot at the end of July.

jay
03-15-2013, 08:47 AM
I have a hard time picturing the Twins let him go if he has a strong/great year.

I should qualify that with 'assuming he's still here at the end of the season for some reason'. That would take the Twins in contention or else the more likely reality that he'll get traded after the break if he's having a good year.

DAM DC Twins Fans
03-15-2013, 09:44 AM
I believe the qualifying offer at the end of the year (to get a draft pick) will be around $14 mill. If Morneau is still here (I hope he is traded at the deadline for SS/P and Parmalee at 1B and Arcia in RF) that is a lot of money to give him considering concussion history and age in 2014 (32). He would take it.

birdwatcher
03-15-2013, 10:05 AM
Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 10:10 AM
Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.
I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

jokin
03-15-2013, 10:10 AM
Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.

Rosterman
03-15-2013, 11:11 AM
I would take the qualifying offer risk, depending on how well he does during the season. We also will get a better idea of Parmelee after this year. So the Twins can afford NOT to deal Morneau and still retain him (or get a draft pick if he refuses). Or they can trade him. I think Morneau does have value as a long-term DH who can also play first, it just depends on the overall price. But a $13-15 million paycheck in 2014 is something the Twins could afford. Then we look at Morneau/Willingham/Doumit ALL coming off the books at that season's end.

The thought that the Twins will be able to resign Morneau to a long-term siginificantly less contract is probably nill, seeing what happened to lowballing Nathan, Cuddyer, Baker and even Kubel. Its a crapshoot for a player, but you have to look at what a team competitiveness is in the near future (yes, Cuddyer blew his choice).

Rosterman
03-15-2013, 11:13 AM
Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.


We complain about getting little in return for Liriano. We got something., The White Sox got nothing. We could've kept him and had him walk. Who knows if Escobar will be the 3-4 year utility guy who has one great year as a fill-in when a middle infielder goes down. Hernandez may develop into a 5th starter or a good long man shades of Duensing. But we got two players for a guy who was not going to resign with the Twins for THEIR price.

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 11:51 AM
It can't be based on last season because he definitely wasn't "dominant". Therefore, I guess in this instance, "domiant" is 11 ABs in the WBC and 23 in Spring Training. Who knew?

First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

So stop.

Nick Nelson
03-15-2013, 11:52 AM
I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.
I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

There's a risk with any player that he'll get hurt and give you no production for the cost. Could happen with Mauer. Basically has happened with Mauer.

But with Morneau, it'd be a one-year deal and they're going to have loads to payroll flexibility next year, so it doesn't seem like a terrible risk to me, even if you have to overpay a bit. Especially if he's coming off a big season.

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 11:55 AM
I would offer it to him, but depending on that whole Napoli-Ortiz situation, I would be willing to bet that the Red Sox would throw some years at him. Victorino+ money.

diehardtwinsfan
03-15-2013, 12:36 PM
I think he hits well and gets traded for something nice. The real question is whether the Twins try to bring him back. I certainly would if he's past his issues, but I'm a fan and Morneau is my favorite player.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 12:38 PM
First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

So stop.

I'm not a big fan of picking out 2 months of a full season. Every player in baseball has months where they hit well above their final OPS, as well as months they hit well below it.
There is a reason that baseball uses such a long season, its a "fluky" enough game that it takes a large sample size to even out.
If it were a consistent trend where it gradually improved each month from April through September, then I could consider that he was shaking off the rust, but it wasnt.
He was terrible in April, then hit the cover off the ball in May, then terrible again in June, then pretty good in July and August, then terrible again in Sept., or basically the same type of monthly splits that I would predict you'd find from any other league average first baseman last year.

That said, I do think he's going to have a better year this year. I think confidence goes a long way in baseball, and I'm sure he's more confident than he was this time of year. But, its based on gut feeling and not something I think you can cherry pick random splits from last year to predict.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 12:42 PM
There's a risk with any player that he'll get hurt and give you no production for the cost. Could happen with Mauer. Basically has happened with Mauer.

But with Morneau, it'd be a one-year deal and they're going to have loads to payroll flexibility next year, so it doesn't seem like a terrible risk to me, even if you have to overpay a bit. Especially if he's coming off a big season.

That's a false equivalence. Certain players carry MORE risk than other players.
Sure any player could get a concussion at any time, but a guy with half a dozen (at least) already is much more risky than a guy who hasnt had any.

I just dont see Morneau as part of the long term of this team. In that case, why even bother with the risk? The only way he's worth the $14 million qualifying offer is if he's having a great year, and if that is the case, then we shouldnt have any problem getting a decent prospect at the deadline.
Parmalee can move to 1st, and Arcia gets called up to play RF.

Cris E
03-15-2013, 03:15 PM
The money is irrelevant in the next couple seasons. They've got most of the guys they want for the coming four or five years and they won't cost anything. Staggering the arb, as discussed above, makes very good sense because it's so easy to do and simplifies life down the road. Guys that are progressing nicely in Roch or NB can stay there, guys that have nothing at all to prove can come up, and anyone not ready can stay out of the discussion. There really isn't much to play for this year and probably even next, so Ryan will use the calendar.

Morneau gets an offer from MN if he's here, period. If he's playing well it'll be a two or three year deal, and if he isn't it'll be a qualifying offer. But the real decision point is earlier: if he's playing average or below by July they'll dump him at the deadline just to free the roster spot for another kid (and avoid the discussion in the off-season.)

One other thing: upstream discussions about his age make zero sense for a 32 year old first baseman. If you want to discuss risk talk about his concussions, but 32 is still prime for most positions these days, and doubly so at the corners.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 03:20 PM
The money is irrelevant in the next couple seasons. They've got most of the guys they want for the coming four or five years and they won't cost anything. Staggering the arb, as discussed above, makes very good sense because it's so easy to do and simplifies life down the road. Guys that are progressing nicely in Roch or NB can stay there, guys that have nothing at all to prove can come up, and anyone not ready can stay out of the discussion. There really isn't much to play for this year and probably even next, so Ryan will use the calendar.

Morneau gets an offer from MN if he's here, period. If he's playing well it'll be a two or three year deal, and if he isn't it'll be a qualifying offer. But the real decision point is earlier: if he's playing average or below by July they'll dump him at the deadline just to free the roster spot for another kid (and avoid the discussion in the off-season.)

One other thing: upstream discussions about his age make zero sense for a 32 year old first baseman. If you want to discuss risk talk about his concussions, but 32 is still prime for most positions these days, and doubly so at the corners.

Why would they offer him $14 million dollars if he's not playing well?
Out of all the possible scenarios discussed in this thread I think that one would probably be the worst.

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 03:32 PM
One article on prime ages refutes your belief of 32:
Baseball Prospectus | How Do Baseball Players Age? (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933)

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 04:17 PM
I'm not a big fan of picking out 2 months of a full season. Every player in baseball has months where they hit well above their final OPS, as well as months they hit well below it.
There is a reason that baseball uses such a long season, its a "fluky" enough game that it takes a large sample size to even out.
If it were a consistent trend where it gradually improved each month from April through September, then I could consider that he was shaking off the rust, but it wasnt.
He was terrible in April, then hit the cover off the ball in May, then terrible again in June, then pretty good in July and August, then terrible again in Sept., or basically the same type of monthly splits that I would predict you'd find from any other league average first baseman last year.

That said, I do think he's going to have a better year this year. I think confidence goes a long way in baseball, and I'm sure he's more confident than he was this time of year. But, its based on gut feeling and not something I think you can cherry pick random splits from last year to predict.

But this isn't a normal player. This was someone who on opening day was doubting if he was capable of playing with his injuries. The entire offseason last year was cloudy for him. Pre-injury he was having a ridiculous 2010. He showed signs of a return while still dealing with injuries in the second half of the season (including, most importantly, September). I am not sure what is really to dispute here.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 04:21 PM
But this isn't a normal player. This was someone who on opening day was doubting if he was capable of playing with his injuries. The entire offseason last year was cloudy for him. Pre-injury he was having a ridiculous 2010. He showed signs of a return while still dealing with injuries in the second half of the season (including, most importantly, September). I am not sure what is really to dispute here.

The statement, "Justin Morneau is back to being a dominant hitter" is not something that can be disputed?
Well I guess that settles that.

BTW: Morneau was terrible in September, he could not have been worse.

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 04:29 PM
The statement, "Justin Morneau is back to being a dominant hitter" is not something that can be disputed?
Well I guess that settles that.

BTW: Morneau was terrible in September, he could not have been worse.

First, AGAIN, I already said that I omitted an "if" right before that . But second, what isn't to be disputed is that you cannot make some general claim about ballplayers having hot streaks when this particular circumstance involves a series of injuries and in particular a bizarre one relating to concussions. The farther removed from that, the better the outcome. I believe he was injured again in September. Maybe I am wrong about that (you know, "day-to-day" nonsense from the Twins).

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 04:30 PM
For the record, I expect a minimum of .850 OPS from him this year if he remains healthy.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 04:32 PM
First, AGAIN, I already said that I omitted an "if" right before that . But second, what isn't to be disputed is that you cannot make some general claim about ballplayers having hot streaks when this particular circumstance involves a series of injuries and in particular a bizarre one relating to concussions. The farther removed from that, the better the outcome. I believe he was injured again in September. Maybe I am wrong about that (you know, "day-to-day" nonsense from the Twins).

Just like I cant say for certain that its just randomness over a long season, you also cant say for sure that its absolutely a trend that shows he was improving and will therefore continue.
Either one would be absurd. Thats kinda what I was getting at originally.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 04:36 PM
One reason I tend to believe it was just randomness and not some trend, is that his babip was 40 points above his career norm over those 2 months. It was not his slugging that improved in those 2 months, it was his AVG and OBP. If you regress his babip to his career norm then those 2 months suddenly look just like the rest.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 04:37 PM
For the record, I expect a minimum of .850 OPS from him this year if he remains healthy.

I suppose if you are going to go on record I will too.
I'm seeing an OPS in the .795 to .810 range this year from Justin.

Cris E
03-15-2013, 04:43 PM
If 32 isn't prime, it's within a year. (And it's improving. This article has a nice graph of how much better players are aging these days: Baseball Prospectus | Resident Fantasy Genius: The Age-27 Breakout Fallacy (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15968) )

My larger point was that as a guy turning 32, he's not at the edge of a cliff. The folks talking about him like he's Olde And Finishede are off-base. The significant drift starts at 33-34, but as a 1b Morneau draws little value from his defense so he'll be useful as long as he hits. If he can prove in 2013 that he can still hit then he'll probably be able to at 33 as well...

...barring injury.

And that recalls my other point: if you're going to discount his value it has to be based on his injuries, and specifically his head. There are dozens of guys over 32 years old who are easily justifying their $13m+ contracts. If you don't believe in him that's perfectly understandable, but for a 2-3 year deal age is not a factor.

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 04:51 PM
I like Shane's analysis of this, but wonder if Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee would fetch a decent SS, 3B and SP. I also worry about trading these three players and taking the risk that Morneau gets injured again.

I am hoping that Morneau gets back to his MVP form. If the Twins are sellers at the trade deadline, I would think that a healthy Morneau might fetch a lot better prospect(s) than the other three combined. And if the Twins are anywhere near contending at the trade deadline, it seems to me that Morneau (and Willingham) should be virtually untouchable -- these are proven players who (along with Mauer) could carry the Twins to the wild card or better.

I am messing up all over this thread. I didn't mean that the three of them would bring back three legit prospects. By some combo I basically meant that the three might bring back two such prospects. I don't see Morneau alone bringing back more than one. Maybe that one has a higher ceiling than any one player to be had for the other three, true. At the deadline, though, both Willingham and Doumit are likely to be quite appealing for playoff teams looking to fill out their rosters with viable hitters (think Texas, NY, Boston, LAA, Atlanta, and maybe St. Louis here). It could even mean a teams "fifth starter" like Worley.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 04:55 PM
Best case scenario for me is Morneau gets off to a great start, Mark Texeira and AROD both have setbacks, and the Yankees call offering Angelo Gumbs and Mark Montgomery.

Monkeypaws
03-15-2013, 08:15 PM
I stick my neck out there and say the former MVP is back in the fold.

Sounds like he'd like to stay here too.

The Twins should make him a lifer.

twinsnorth49
03-15-2013, 08:32 PM
I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.
I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.


Another concussion expert, where do they all come from?

twinsnorth49
03-15-2013, 08:40 PM
Where is the convincing arguement that Morneau can't revert to his old form, or close to it? Don't tell me it's because of this alleged fog in his head?

Based on the guy's career track record and age, betting against him being an elite hitter again is fools gold. I'm with Shane, he OPS's north of .850, book it.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 09:01 PM
Another concussion expert, where do they all come from?

How am I claiming to be some sort of "concussion expert"?

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 09:02 PM
Where is the convincing arguement that Morneau can't revert to his old form, or close to it? Don't tell me it's because of this alleged fog in his head?

Based on the guy's career track record and age, betting against him being an elite hitter again is fools gold. I'm with Shane, he OPS's north of .850, book it.

I'm certainly not claiming he can't. Of course he can.
I'm just saying its too soon to claim with absolute certainty that he already has. I think we need to see it first.

jokin
03-15-2013, 10:45 PM
First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

So stop.

You refute one small sample size argument used against your point by citing yet another? I know that doesn't work in your college classes, professor. Or if it does, no wonder you try to cease the debate by yelling "stop".

jokin
03-15-2013, 10:57 PM
To make clear, I'm not a Morneau hater. If he comes back to his old form, nothing would please me more. The reality is, the direction the team is headed towards is getting a lot younger with legit, minimum-wage, cost-controlled prospects champing at the bit at Morneau's 2 potential positions. The evidence is overwhelming that this is coupled with a return to an overall lean, mean payroll- ie, Smith was out when he actually thought ownership meant it about an open checkbook- Ryan was brought back to shed salary, find cheaper, reliable replacements in the process and keep a positive cash flow until the next up-cycle. It's highly unlikely, no matter how well Justin performs, that Morneau is considered to be part of the pending up-cycle, unless he willingly takes Ryan's lowball offer.

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 11:41 PM
You refute one small sample size argument used against your point by citing yet another? I know that doesn't work in your college classes, professor. Or if it does, no wonder you try to cease the debate by yelling "stop".

I say stop because I don't think you are taking in the relevant particular situation that Morneau is in with his health. Last year was bound to start out problematic for him, but he did pick up a lot of steam and this offseason was "normal" for him. There's just zero reason to think that a healthy Morneau isn't going to be somewhat like the pre-2010 Morneau. He's older, so there will be some decline.

It's not as though I am the only one who has pointed to Morneau's second half of the season as a significant improvement.

jokin
03-16-2013, 02:37 AM
I say stop because I don't think you are taking in the relevant particular situation that Morneau is in with his health. Last year was bound to start out problematic for him, but he did pick up a lot of steam and this offseason was "normal" for him. There's just zero reason to think that a healthy Morneau isn't going to be somewhat like the pre-2010 Morneau. He's older, so there will be some decline.

It's not as though I am the only one who has pointed to Morneau's second half of the season as a significant improvement.

I think I understand that Morneau has made significant strides to a return towards being as fully recovered from his last concussion as he can be. I'm still not certain that the average fan appreciates his long ordeal enough. He did look better in the 2nd half last year, the first half had people howling to make a part-time platoon player out of a $14M investment. He had 2 months where he resembled the Justin of old and 4 months where he just looked rusty- and just old. And that's my point, the Twins are likely to move on, via midseason trade (although Ryan hasn't proved he can make a deadline "sellers" deal that would actually help the club long-term, should be interesting what kind of offer would motivate him to pull the trigger)- or refusing to make a QO, whichever way his season shakes out- great or pedestrian- and go with someone younger and cheaper, unless he's willing to take a salary cut. I think Morneau thinks he still has the juice left in the tank for one more decent contract- he recently mentioned the Blue Jays as his desired location- perhaps at a "Canadian-Born Discount"?

kab21
03-16-2013, 08:12 AM
Trading Morneau even at the deadline still only makes sense if there is actually something decent coming back. The Twins have enough PR problems with fans (losing and cutting payroll) to just dump him. And I think the return would be underwhelming for Morneau.

I'm not really against offering Morneau a tender at about 14M. There's payroll room and he's a fan favorite. At that point Morneau would be trapped since it's very unlikely that a team would give up a 1st rd pick and sign him to a multiyear deal.

Parmelee has nearly zero trade value after his long and mediocre MiLB career.

Doumit doesn't have much trade value but that could change. If there's a good offer out there then it makes sense to trade him.

Willingham currently has fairly good trade value and he would be my top priority to trade this summer.

Nick Nelson
03-16-2013, 11:27 AM
I'm not really against offering Morneau a tender at about 14M. There's payroll room and he's a fan favorite. At that point Morneau would be trapped since it's very unlikely that a team would give up a 1st rd pick and sign him to a multiyear deal.

I'm not so sure. If Morneau demonstrates this year that he's returned to form, I think he'd be pretty highly coveted as a free agent. A lot of teams would love to add an elite slugger and proven run producer with his track record. I don't know if his age will be that great a deterrent; look at the deal Swisher just got.

jorgenswest
03-16-2013, 11:51 AM
The best case is Morneau returns to form and gives the Twins options. They can afford to make the qualifying offer or deal him in the summer.

If his hitting is similar to last year, the Twins won't have options. The best case would be to trade him to a cash strapped contender, pick up his salary and buy a prospect.

Most teams will view Doumit as a DH/PH. I don't think there will be much trade value. They couldn't get anything for Thome a few years ago with an OPS+ of 126. Doumit's bat will likely be below that level.

Parmelee is under team control for several years. If he plays well and has trade value, it will better to retain control and keep him. If he doesn't have trade value...

Willingham also is a defensive liability and difficult to trade unless he can match his OPS+ of 144 (significantly higher than any other season in his career). If he returns to his career rate of 125, he won't bring back much in trade. If his history of injury trouble returns...

Thinking that the Twins can get back significant prospects in return is as realistic as thinking Liriano was worth a top 100 prospect.

kab21
03-16-2013, 12:07 PM
I'm not so sure. If Morneau demonstrates this year that he's returned to form, I think he'd be pretty highly coveted as a free agent. A lot of teams would love to add an elite slugger and proven run producer with his track record. I don't know if his age will be that great a deterrent; look at the deal Swisher just got.

Swisher has played 148+ games every season w/o any down years (the CHW year was a little iffy) and can play 1B and OF. Morneau carries too much injury risk imo to get a long contract. He also has to get rid of the can't hit lefties tag that he developed last season.

It's possible that he puts up a .900 OPS and does gain some interest as a FA but I'm not even that optimistic about him.

diehardtwinsfan
03-16-2013, 03:08 PM
I don't get the angst over Morneau. He was an MVP calliber hitter before that injury. No one is saying his 2006-2010 seasons were flukes. It was clear he was not the same in 2011 with injury after injury and returning from that concussion, and it's undisputed that he was still not the same at the start of 2012. Unlike 2011 and 2012, Morneau looks good this spring. He's hitting well and he's no longer scared. I don't get what people are worried about. He's going to post an OPS around .900, and baring any other injury (and an absolute flop by Arcia, Parmalee, and Benson), he'll be traded at the deadline. The question as I see it is whether the Twins will try to bring him back. I personally would, as they will still need help at DH as the next wave arrives. Having Morneau and Parmalee rotate between 1st and DH makes a ton of sense.

Mr. Brooks
03-16-2013, 04:07 PM
I don't get the angst over Morneau. He was an MVP calliber hitter before that injury. No one is saying his 2006-2010 seasons were flukes. It was clear he was not the same in 2011 with injury after injury and returning from that concussion, and it's undisputed that he was still not the same at the start of 2012. Unlike 2011 and 2012, Morneau looks good this spring. He's hitting well and he's no longer scared. I don't get what people are worried about. He's going to post an OPS around .900, and baring any other injury (and an absolute flop by Arcia, Parmalee, and Benson), he'll be traded at the deadline. The question as I see it is whether the Twins will try to bring him back. I personally would, as they will still need help at DH as the next wave arrives. Having Morneau and Parmalee rotate between 1st and DH makes a ton of sense.

The angst is because head injuries are different than most injuires.
They are unpredictable and even in this modern age of medicine, neurological experts still dont know everything about the brain.
Its not like a broken foot where you put it in a cast and x amount of weeks later its like it never happened.
It's silly to declare that Morneau is for a fact going to OPS .900, as if its some sort of undisputed fact and not opinion. Especially considering he's only OPS'd .900 once in his career (in a season in which he accumulated enough PA's to qualify), and that was his MVP season.
Nobody is saying he cant do it. Of course he could do it, but those people also are not declaring that they know for a fact he won't.

jokin
03-16-2013, 11:57 PM
The angst is because head injuries are different than most injuires.
They are unpredictable and even in this modern age of medicine, neurological experts still dont know everything about the brain.
Its not like a broken foot where you put it in a cast and x amount of weeks later its like it never happened.
It's silly to declare that Morneau is for a fact going to OPS .900, as if its some sort of undisputed fact and not opinion. Especially considering he's only OPS'd .900 once in his career (in a season in which he accumulated enough PA's to qualify), and that was his MVP season.
Nobody is saying he cant do it. Of course he could do it, but those people also are not declaring that they know for a fact he won't.

A lot of people posting these days who turned in their objectivity at the door when ST opened up and have their Twins Wish-O-Meter set at "Eleventy" ever since:

"Gibson is our Ace and it would be a travesty to send him back down to AAA!"/
"After his breakout season last year, let's just put Arcia in RF now!"/
"Looking at his ST BA, it's a given that Rosario is our best Second Baseman and will be called up in July!"/
"I was all for trading Morneau, but he is fully recovered from his injuries and is dominant again!"/

birdwatcher
03-17-2013, 08:00 AM
I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.
I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

True, he could get a concussion without playing a single game after accepting a QO. I'd still be inclined to take the risk if he stayed healthy and productive throughout 2013. I mean, EVERY player poses a season-ending injury risk.

Mr. Brooks
03-17-2013, 08:12 AM
True, he could get a concussion without playing a single game after accepting a QO. I'd still be inclined to take the risk if he stayed healthy and productive throughout 2013. I mean, EVERY player poses a season-ending injury risk.

You dont think some players posses greater risk than others?
And he wouldnt have to suffer the injury before playing a single game to give you zero production, he'd just have to be producing at replacement level or below at the time.

birdwatcher
03-17-2013, 08:13 AM
Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.
Not sure what a trending imperative is, but if getting Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez in exchange for that frustrating headcase Liriano is a trending imperative, sign me up.

birdwatcher
03-17-2013, 10:55 AM
To make clear, I'm not a Morneau hater. If he comes back to his old form, nothing would please me more. The reality is, the direction the team is headed towards is getting a lot younger with legit, minimum-wage, cost-controlled prospects champing at the bit at Morneau's 2 potential positions. The evidence is overwhelming that this is coupled with a return to an overall lean, mean payroll- ie, Smith was out when he actually thought ownership meant it about an open checkbook- Ryan was brought back to shed salary, find cheaper, reliable replacements in the process and keep a positive cash flow until the next up-cycle. It's highly unlikely, no matter how well Justin performs, that Morneau is considered to be part of the pending up-cycle, unless he willingly takes Ryan's lowball offer.

This is total bunk, but I'll give yoiu credit for your consistency, jokin.

birdwatcher
03-17-2013, 11:21 AM
You dont think some players posses greater risk than others?
And he wouldnt have to suffer the injury before playing a single game to give you zero production, he'd just have to be producing at replacement level or below at the time.
If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance. So, if he doesn't fetch an overwhelming return at the trade deadline, it's nice that the Twins could make a QO and quite possibly enjoy yet another productive year from him in 2014. The greater risks would be a longer-term contract or a "forced" deadline trade for a poor return. If we trade him this summer, my hope is they buy a real prospect or two by taking on his salary for a cash-strapped club, of which there are many.

Mr. Brooks
03-17-2013, 11:54 AM
If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance. So, if he doesn't fetch an overwhelming return at the trade deadline, it's nice that the Twins could make a QO and quite possibly enjoy yet another productive year from him in 2014. The greater risks would be a longer-term contract or a "forced" deadline trade for a poor return. If we trade him this summer, my hope is they buy a real prospect or two by taking on his salary for a cash-strapped club, of which there are many.

No, the risk is not lessened. This is a brain injury, not a broken rib. The risk will ALWAYS be there for Justin.
If Morneau gets another concussion, he's likely done, by HIS OWN admission. That is not the case for most players.
I'm not even saying that Morneau is more likely to get another concussion (although there is medical evidence that he is), I'm saying if he gets another one, that's likely it for him, whether it happens tomorrow or in 5 years.

Nick Nelson
03-17-2013, 11:58 AM
If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance.
Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

FrodaddyG
03-17-2013, 12:12 PM
Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.
But with the recent focus on concussions throughout sports, a guy with his history is going to get viewed differently than say, a guy who has had TJS. One ailment physically heals, the other is still a largely unknown quantity, and Morneau hasn't just had one incident with head injuries.

"Durability" isn't really being called into question. It isn't how well he bounces back from or avoids typical injuries. It's the fact that his head is one hit away from not just missing time, but probably ending his career. His last concussion didn't subside, by Morneau's own statements, for two years. And as the 2010 concussion showed, it doesn't take an NFL-level "WR-lit-up-on-a-crossing-route-by-a-free-safety" shot to bring head issues back. One minor collision on a slide gave him issues across multiple seasons, and the team that thinks about ponying up for him has to know in the back of their mind that another one of those is the likely end of their investment. That may make it tough for him to see much beyond year-to-year or a two year deal at best, just due to teams minimizing salary risk on a guy who won't exactly be making the league minimum wherever he ends up.

TheLeviathan
03-17-2013, 12:13 PM
Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

Wouldn't something like Laroche be more likely? I can't imagine anyone gives Morneau more than three. I'd be surprised by even three years. As kab said earlier, the market the last few years hasn't been that lucrative for corner OFs/1B.

jokin
03-17-2013, 10:31 PM
This is total bunk, but I'll give yoiu credit for your consistency, jokin.

Nice job, calling facts "bunk" does not an argument to the counter-point make. Please try again and attempt to descredit one fact-based assertion presented, if you dare.

Let me help you with an outline:

1) Is the team getting younger? Check
2) Is the payroll on a downward trajectory, as the club stated it would do? Check
3) Was Smith out when he wanted to increase payroll?Check
4) Has Ryan- shed salary, found replacements and attempted to maintain cash flow?Check
5) Based on the Twins machinations and potential cheap hole-fillers at positons Justin can play, is Morneau likely to be in on the Twins future plans without a significant paycut? Check

Have at an attempt at de"bunk"ing, if you can.

jokin
03-17-2013, 10:38 PM
If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance. So, if he doesn't fetch an overwhelming return at the trade deadline, it's nice that the Twins could make a QO and quite possibly enjoy yet another productive year from him in 2014. The greater risks would be a longer-term contract or a "forced" deadline trade for a poor return. If we trade him this summer, my hope is they buy a real prospect or two by taking on his salary for a cash-strapped club, of which there are many.

Cite the evidence that makes any of your proposals more than a pathetic entry to the Make-A-Wish Foundation that, when passed on to the Twins, would undoubtedly end up in the circular file over at 1 Twins Way.

You do realize that concussion risk never goes away, right? Serious diminishment of value, regardless of his on-field performance.

Cite a comp trade for an older 1B with serious concussion issues that yielded a big-time prospect.

When was the last time the Twins extended a legit QO?

When was the last time that the Twins ate a contract to get the prospect that they wanted?

old nurse
03-17-2013, 10:39 PM
I think that Colabello will be more likely than Clement at this point...

Are you the kiss of death for a borderline player making the team? You like Romero and now he is stuck without a visa

jokin
03-17-2013, 10:43 PM
Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

And so was Corey Koskie....or did you forget?

jokin
03-17-2013, 11:10 PM
Not sure what a trending imperative is, but if getting Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez in exchange for that frustrating headcase Liriano is a trending imperative, sign me up.

It's always a good thing to trade a player at his perceived maximum value, and not when your team's circumstances, and/or the player's ineptitude force the issue. GM 101.

Don't tell me that the Twins didn't have their chances on moving Liriano multiple times previously.

jokin
03-17-2013, 11:12 PM
I don't get the angst over Morneau. He was an MVP calliber hitter before that injury. No one is saying his 2006-2010 seasons were flukes. It was clear he was not the same in 2011 with injury after injury and returning from that concussion, and it's undisputed that he was still not the same at the start of 2012. Unlike 2011 and 2012, Morneau looks good this spring. He's hitting well and he's no longer scared. I don't get what people are worried about. He's going to post an OPS around .900, and baring any other injury (and an absolute flop by Arcia, Parmalee, and Benson), he'll be traded at the deadline. The question as I see it is whether the Twins will try to bring him back. I personally would, as they will still need help at DH as the next wave arrives. Having Morneau and Parmalee rotate between 1st and DH makes a ton of sense.

You've just nailed the best-case scenario, hopefully it comes to pass.

Nick Nelson
03-17-2013, 11:21 PM
Five of the last six posts all from the same person. Impressive work.

jokin
03-17-2013, 11:23 PM
Five of the last six posts all from the same person. Impressive work.
Is that supposed to be a criticism?, or simply a function of the lack of late-night traffic might suffice as the explantion?

Ultima Ratio
03-17-2013, 11:57 PM
Justin Island of Morneau will earn a trip to the All-Star game this year. That's not a fact.... yet....

PseudoSABR
03-18-2013, 01:10 AM
That Morneau is somehow an unknown quantity is fascinating, isn't it? The truth is he's not really that old, and he really does have the capacity to just put up monster numbers. Doesn't he seem okay, now?--even including our scumbag neurologist assessments (from video, from hearsay, from interview)?

Maybe he's ****ed, but maybe the guy is just who he's been, which might be awesome.

ericchri
03-18-2013, 06:33 AM
If Morneau puts up an OPS of around .850 or more for a full season, he's probably worth that QO (the Twins can certainly afford it next year). He's always going to have the concussion issue dragging down his value, but he's had plenty of other nagging injuries during the last few years as well that have sapped his production. Both of those added together mean he's unlikely to get much for long-term offers from anybody, I would think, but short-term deals he would have the potential to provide pretty good value. If he's actually healthy barring the concussion risk, he can be close to dominant.

The biggest problem with Morneau is essentially Parmelee and Arcia. One of the three of Willingham, Morneau, or Parmelee almost has to get traded this season to make room for Arcia. But if Willingham was the one to get traded and Morneau has a great season, it wouldn't bother me to see the Twins offer him up another year to potentially get the draft choice if he became a FA or keep him around if Morneau wanted to stay.

old nurse
03-18-2013, 06:50 AM
Wouldn't something like Laroche be more likely? I can't imagine anyone gives Morneau more than three. I'd be surprised by even three years. As kab said earlier, the market the last few years hasn't been that lucrative for corner OFs/1B.
Unless you are one of the top players , almost no one gets more than a three year contract lately. In terms of not lucrative, Fielder, Pujols, Swisher, Hunter and Victorino would disagree with you.

TheLeviathan
03-18-2013, 12:52 PM
Unless you are one of the top players , almost no one gets more than a three year contract lately. In terms of not lucrative, Fielder, Pujols, Swisher, Hunter and Victorino would disagree with you.

I'm sorry, but why be condescending when it's your point that totally misses the context of the discussion? Victorino is likely a CF and lumping Morneau in the Fielder/Pujols category is just silly. So you have two relevant examples, both of whom don't have the health concerns Morneau does and, in Swisher, more position versatility.

If Morneau bounces back (and I'm really feeling positive about him) I think he'll have trouble getting more than a two year deal. Which is what the Laroche example I was suggesting was leading to - 2 years 24M with a mutual option. That seems about right for Morneau in a bounceback, I don't expect more than that on the open market.

Mr. Brooks
03-18-2013, 12:55 PM
I'm sorry, but why be condescending when it's your point that totally misses the context of the discussion? Victorino is likely a CF and lumping Morneau in the Fielder/Pujols category is just silly. So you have two relevant examples, both of whom don't have the health concerns Morneau does and, in Swisher, more position versatility.

If Morneau bounces back (and I'm really feeling positive about him) I think he'll have trouble getting more than a two year deal. Which is what the Laroche example I was suggesting was leading to - 2 years 24M with a mutual option. That seems about right for Morneau in a bounceback, I don't expect more than that on the open market.

Not that it matters much to the context of this discussion, but I'm pretty sure Victorino is going to play RF for Boston.

TheLeviathan
03-18-2013, 01:05 PM
Not that it matters much to the context of this discussion, but I'm pretty sure Victorino is going to play RF for Boston.

You're correct, because of Ellsbury. I think it's safe to say comping Victorino and Morneau just doesn't feel right though, IMO.

diehardtwinsfan
03-18-2013, 03:34 PM
I suspect someone will be willing to take on the risk associated with a 3 year deal should Morneau be healthy and productive. It would either result in a bit lower annual amount than what he'd get otherwise, option years, or a concussion clause in the contract giving the team an out should he suffer a concussion in 2014 or 2015.

Mr. Brooks
03-18-2013, 05:32 PM
I suspect someone will be willing to take on the risk associated with a 3 year deal should Morneau be healthy and productive. It would either result in a bit lower annual amount than what he'd get otherwise, option years, or a concussion clause in the contract giving the team an out should he suffer a concussion in 2014 or 2015.

The MLBPA would never allow that.

birdwatcher
03-18-2013, 06:33 PM
Nice job, calling facts "bunk" does not an argument to the counter-point make. Please try again and attempt to descredit one fact-based assertion presented, if you dare.

Let me help you with an outline:

1) Is the team getting younger? Check
2) Is the payroll on a downward trajectory, as the club stated it would do? Check
3) Was Smith out when he wanted to increase payroll?Check
4) Has Ryan- shed salary, found replacements and attempted to maintain cash flow?Check
5) Based on the Twins machinations and potential cheap hole-fillers at positons Justin can play, is Morneau likely to be in on the Twins future plans without a significant paycut? Check

Have at an attempt at de"bunk"ing, if you can.

jokin, my dear brother, let'd review the difference between facts and your opinion, OK?

In the bunk-filled comment I responded to, you set forth two facts:

1. The team is moving toward a roster of younger, cost-controlled players.
2. As a result of this, and perhaps other factors which are open for dispute, the payroll is lower this season, which means payroll has declined each of the last two years.

What's clearly open for dispute is whether the Twins have some evil master plan that is behind these two facts. Your opinion is that they are evil and deceptive. This, jokin, is a FACT in your little world, but it is not commonly regarded as factual. You do NOT have overwhelming evidence of this, or of your other opinions that you consider to be facts, to-wit:

1. Smith was ousted because he misinterpreted things and thought he had an open checkbook?

2. Ryan was brought back in ostensibly to shed payroll and generate a positive cash flow?

3. Morneau will not be part of the future unless he accepts Ryan's "lowball offer"?

You're entitled to your opinion, jokin, but you shouls expect to get called out when you present them as facts. Because in the opinion of others, this is bunk.

jokin
03-18-2013, 07:58 PM
jokin, my dear brother, let'd review the difference between facts and your opinion, OK?

In the bunk-filled comment I responded to, you set forth two facts:

1. The team is moving toward a roster of younger, cost-controlled players.
2. As a result of this, and perhaps other factors which are open for dispute, the payroll is lower this season, which means payroll has declined each of the last two years.

A) What's clearly open for dispute is whether the Twins have some evil master plan that is behind these two facts. Your opinion is that they are evil and deceptive.

B)This, jokin, is a FACT in your little world, but it is not commonly regarded as factual. You do NOT have overwhelming evidence of this, or of your other opinions that you consider to be facts, to-wit:

C) 1. Smith was ousted because he misinterpreted things and thought he had an open checkbook?

D) 2. Ryan was brought back in ostensibly to shed payroll and generate a positive cash flow?

E) 3. Morneau will not be part of the future unless he accepts Ryan's "lowball offer"?

F)You're entitled to your opinion, jokin, but you shouls expect to get called out when you present them as facts. Because in the opinion of others, this is bunk.

In regards to:

A) Thanks for explaining to me what my position is. In point of fact, your fevered imagination and stultifying knee-jerk defense of your cocktail crowd had grossly mischaracterized it- to the point that your posts are becoming a self-parody of the Anti-Conspiracy-Conspiracist. Earth to Birdwatcher- Dr. Evil was a parody-figure and Terry Ryan is not Stavro Blofeld, either. As hard as it is for you to believe in your cloistered world, there are rational Twins fans out there that understand that the MN Twins are a business, and that there are sound reasons for making the decisions that were outlined in Points 1 and 2. Just because some fans might prefer a different direction, it doesn't make them "right" or the Twins FO "evil", come down off your high horse, already. "Other factors open for dispute"? The evidence is clear that high-priced salaries were purposefully being swept from the books- and that FA with actual impact talent were not going to be even sought after, let alone signed. You yourself once stated that you would join me if the Twins failed to make a legitimate effort to acquire legitimate impact SP talent, we all know the result.

B) Of course, it follows that your next statement is a complete non-sequitur. It's difficult to try to make any comprehensible sense out of this mish-mash, other than an obtusely feeble attempt at be"littl"ing the facts staring at you from straight across the table.

C) Smith's ouster, soon after his initial vote of confidence from Jim Pohlad has widely been reported to be based on Smith wanting to continue in the same direction concerning the payroll and JP having the final vote. Did you hear something different at an offseason Pohlad soiree'? If so, it's time for you to do some reporting.

D) Mis-statement of my actual factual statement: To wit, "Has Ryan- shed salary, found replacements and attempted to maintain cash flow?" Yup.

E) Does anyone- but of course, yourself and the Pauline Kael-esque high brow set- doubt that how the Twins have dealt with almost every pending high-price FA in the past is indicative of how they will behave in the future?

It is factual that the Twins have ready and very cheap replacements at First Base and DH.
It is factual that the Twins "play the game" about re-signing their top-dollar players who have matured beyond their arb years- but push below-the-market offers to do so.
The evidence around the league suggests that the demand for Morneau's services at his existing salary structure is soft and that comparables are earning less- and much less- when there's the ever-looming danger that a soft slide into second base will result in catastrophic and uninsurable injury.

F) In light of this FAIL on your part, I'm still waiting for your "call-out", (Usually a call-out requires documentable counter-arguments, must have slipped your mind). If you prefer to have your "bunk"mates do your dirty work, have your "others" get back to my "others", brother Twins fan.